Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu May 16 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 1011 mb low near 10N104W to 07N112W. The ITCZ continues from 07N112W to 05N125W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 13N E of 100W. Numerous moderate convection is associated with the 1011 mb low from 06N to 13N between 101W and 109W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 02N to 06N between 125W and 137W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate seas to 7 ft prevail across the waters off the Baja California peninsula southward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. In the Gulf of California, moderate SE winds are ongoinh N of 29N while NW winds of the same magnitude are along the southern gulf. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the S and SW offshore waters of Mexico. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 5 ft in SW swell elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate seas or less, will prevail off the Baja California waters through Tue night, however locally strong NW winds are forecast briefly tonight between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lucas. Moderate winds in the Gulf of California will diminish to light to gentle speeds Fri morning and prevail through Mon evening. Gentle to locally moderate winds and moderate seas are expected elsewhere across the S and SW offshore waters of Mexico through early next week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles to the south of southern Mexico during the next couple of days. Gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form over the weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly to the west or west- northwest, remaining south of the coast of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds prevail S of the monsoon trough along with moderate seas in mixed S and SW swell. N of the monsoon trough, winds are light to gentle and seas are also moderate in mixed S and SW swell. For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds are forecast south of the monsoon trough, with light to gentle winds north of the monsoon trough, through the end of the week. Southerly swell moving through the regional waters will support seas of 4-6 ft through the remainder of the week, building to 6-8 ft offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands this weekend. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec within the next couple of days, possibly increasing winds and seas in the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador toward the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails N of 10N. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate tradewinds north of 05N to near 20N and west of 118W. Seas in this area are in the 5-7 ft range. Gentle to locally moderate winds are elsewhere north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, where seas are in the 4-6 ft range. Gentle to locally moderate winds are south of the ITCZ/monsoon trough where seas are in the 5-6 ft range, except to 7 ft south of the Equator. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected in the trade wind zone north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of 120W through the forecast period. Winds will freshen in the tradewind zone north of the ITCZ and west of 130W later in the week, locally strong at times. The NE wind waves generated from these trades will mix with a set of southerly swell to build seas to 7-9 ft by the end of the week through the weekend. A couple of sets of northerly swell may approach 30N by Fri afternoon, possibly building seas to around 8 ft north of 28N at times.