Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat May 18 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 14N100W to a 1010 mb low pressure situated near 10N106W to 07N120W. The ITCZ continues from 07N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N E of 91W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 16N between 93W and 102W, and from 08N to 13N between 104W and 111W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting moderate to fresh N-NW winds and moderate seas in NW swell to 7 ft. Elsewhere, including the Gulf of California, light to gentle variable winds are ongoing with moderate seas of 5-7 ft in SW swell, except slight seas to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. Reduced visibility is likely over the S and SW offshore zones of Mexico due to agricultural fires. For the forecast, the surface ridge over the waters west of the Baja California peninsula along with lower pressures over Mexico will continue to support moderate to fresh N-NW winds over the Baja Peninsula offshore waters through Thu night, increasing to locally strong speeds between Cabo San Lucas and Punta Eugenia Sun night through Mon night. Large NW swell is forecast to impact the Baja California offshore waters Mon through Thu with seas to 9 ft. Otherwise, a trough of low pressure continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms several hundred miles to the south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear marginal and development of this system, if any, should be slow to occur as it moves westward during the next few days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle variable winds are ongoing over the Central America offshore waters along with moderate seas in the 4-6 ft range in SW swell. Between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate from the S-SE and seas are 5-6 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, the monsoon trough will continue to support and amplify the convection over the Central America offshore waters through early next week. Modereate NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo Sun and Mon. Moderate to fresh S-SW winds will develop across portions of the Colombia and Ecuador offshore waters Sun night into Mon night. Southwest swell with 8 ft seas will start to propagate across the waters SW of the Galapagos Islands Sun evening, and reach the Ecuador offshore waters through Mon evening before subsiding. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the waters N of 15N and W of 115W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure along the ITCZ is forcing moderate to fresh NE to E trades from 06N to 16N west of 125W per recent scatterometer data. Seas are in the 8 to 9 ft range within these winds. A 1010 mb low pressure is along the monsoon trough near 10N106W. Moderate to locally fresh S-SW winds are noted on the SE semicircle of the low center to about 08N. Elsewhere N of 20N, winds are moderate or weaker from the N-NE to E with moderate seas to 7 ft due to northerly swell. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to dominate the forecast waters N of 10N and W of 120W through the middle of next week with moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas along the southern periphery of its associated ridge. The high pressure will strengthen Sun into Mon bringing some increase in winds across the offshore waters of Baja California, and in the trade wind zone. Large SW swell west of 100W will prevail S of the monsoon and ITCZ before subsiding Mon. Otherwise, an elongated area of low pressure located several hundred miles offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico associated with the 1010 mb low mentioned above, producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms, is no longer expected to develop due to nearby dry air and unfavorable environmental conditions.