More thunderstorms formed near the center of a low pressure system west of Mexico on Sunday and the National Hurricane Center classified the system as Tropical Storm Tina. At 10:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Tropical Storm Tina was located at latitude 18.5°N and longitude 107.1°W which put it about 185 miles (300 km) west of Manzanillo, Mexico. Tina was moving toward the north at 3 m.p.h. (5 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.
The circulation of Tropical Storm Tina is not well organized. Although there is a definite center of circulation in the lower levels, most of the thunderstorms are developing north and east of the center of circulation. An upper level trough southwest of California is generating southwesterly winds which are blowing across the top of Tropical Storm Tina. The strong vertical wind shear is tilting the circulation and it is causing the thunderstorms to be concentrated in the northeastern quadrant of the circulation. The upper level winds are also inhibiting upper level divergence.
Although Tropical Storm Tina is moving over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C, the atmospheric environment is unfavorable for intensification. The strong vertical wind shear will prevent any significant intensification. In fact, if the upper level winds get much stronger, the shear could blow the top half of the circulation northeast of the bottom half. In that case the low level circulation will quickly spin down and dissipate.
If the vertical integrity of the circulation is maintained, then the upper level trough will steer Tropical Storm Tina toward the northeast and into Mexico. However, if the circulation shears apart, a surface high pressure system could steer it slowly toward the west. In either case the upper level winds could transport some moist air over Jalisco and Colima, where it could enhance rainfall.
