Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed May 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1555 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been introduced along 35W, south of 15N, based on recent satellite imagery, total precipitable water data and tropical wave diagnostics. The wave is moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is embedded in a dry Saharan airmass that is suppressing the shower and thunderstorm activity. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 48W, south of 11N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are seen near the trough axis. A central Caribbean tropical wave is along 76W, south of 15N, and moving westward at 10-15 kt. It is enhancing convection near the East Pacific monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 06N22W. The ITCZ extends from 06N22W to 04N34W and then from 04N36W to 02N47W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring south of 10N and east of 22W. Similar convection is observed near and north of the ITCZ between 36W and 47W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Divergent flow aloft attributed to a deep upper-level trough, combined with abundant tropical moisture pulled northward from the Caribbean, results in numerous showers and thunderstorms over the NW and eastern Gulf. A squall line is moving quickly across the NW Gulf waters, producing wind gusts to gale force. Mariners are advised to use caution. Elsewhere, a weak gradient prevails supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast, very active thunderstorms continue across portions of the Gulf today, with one squall line moving southeastward off the SW Louisiana coast and a second moving offshore of south Texas. Expect heavy rainfall, frequent lightning, wind gusts to gale- force and locally rough seas with this activity. Otherwise, the Atlantic ridge extends westward across north Florida and the northern Gulf coasts, and will sustain moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds through the weekend. The exception will be evening pulses of fresh winds off the northern Yucatan through Thu night. An upper- level trough across the central Gulf should continue to combine with abundant tropical moisture to produce scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms over the central and eastern Gulf through Thu. Mariners are urged to keep up to date with the latest forecasts. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure north of the islands forces fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds and rough to locally very rough seas across the central Caribbean. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured winds to 31 kt. Latest altimeter satellite pass showed seas up to 13 ft off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are present elsewhere. The southeastern periphery of a well pronounced upper- level trough is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the Yucatan Channel, western Cuba and nearby waters in the NW Caribbean. Similar convection is noted off Nicaragua and Panama, while weak, light showers travel through the basin in the trades. For the forecast, tight pressure gradient between 1024 mb high pressure in the western Atlantic and a 1006 mb Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the central Caribbean through Thu. Winds are expected to pulse to near-gale force off NW Colombia tonight through Thu morning. Trades in the Gulf of Honduras and just north of Jamaica will reach fresh to strong this evening through early Thu morning. By Fri night, the high will shift E and weaken, leaving most of the basin with moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas, except the south- central basin, where fresh to strong winds and rough seas will remain through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak stationary front extends from 31N23W to 26N30W, followed by a surface trough to 24N48W. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of an expansive subtropical ridge that covers much of the basin along 30N. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to locally rough seas are found south of the ridge, especially south of 20N and east of 35W and south of 25N and east of 35W. Also, similar conditions are noted south of a line from NE Florida to the northern Leeward Islands. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic ridge extends E to W along 29N-30N today and across north Florida. This pattern is expected to produce fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas south of 25N and west of 68W through this afternoon, including the Great Bahama Bank, as ridge shifts southeastward. This high will begin to weaken tonight, allowing winds and seas to begin to diminish. A dissipating frontal trough from 30N48W to 26N70W will dissipate today. In the longer term, two cold fronts sweeping eastward across the north Atlantic are expected to produce increasing winds and seas north of 28N and east of 70W from Thu night through Fri, and again from Sat night through Sun.