Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Feb 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front in the central Atlantic extends from 31N53W to 21N63W where it then continues as a stationary front across Puerto Rico and into the central Caribbean Sea. Widespread very rough seas in N to NW swell cover the northwest tropical Atlantic in the wake of the front, and locally very rough seas in mixed swell are noted to the east of the front north of 28N. Peak seas of 18 to 24 ft are expected north of 26N and east of 67W through late tonight. Seas in excess of 12 ft will slowly subside from west to east, and will move east of 35W Thu night into early Fri. Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 09N13W and extends to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W to 01N36W to northern Brazil at 01N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring from 01N to 05N east of 28W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure located over the N-central Gulf near 29N89W dominates the basin. Fresh to strong winds are diminishing over the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are elsewhere in the SE Gulf, with moderate to fresh SE return flow over the western Gulf W of 94W, and gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds elsewhere and between. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in remnant northerly swell across both the SE and SW portions of the Gulf. Seas are 3 to 5 ft elsewhere south of 26N, and mainly 3 ft or less north of 26N. For the forecast, the high pressure will move toward the NE Gulf tonight allowing a fresh to strong southerly return flow to develop over the western Gulf. These winds will persist through late Tue. The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf by early Wed morning, then sweep southward across the Gulf region through Thu evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will follow the front. Winds and seas will begin to diminish across the Gulf area Thu night into Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from Puerto Rico to northern Colombia where it is helping to induce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms. This boundary is forecast to support an elevated to significant flood risk across Puerto Rico and the U.S. Virgin Islands through at least mid-week. Please refer to https://www.weather.gov/sju for the latest from the NWS San Juan Weather Forecast Office. Fresh to strong N winds and rough seas are noted in the west of the front, forecast to dissipate by Tue night into Wed. Moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds are east of the front. Seas are 8 to 13 ft S of 19N between 70W and 86W, with 7 to 10 ft seas also spreading through the Mona Passage. Seas are 4 to 7 ft elsewhere west of the front, and 3 to 5 ft east of the front. To the east of the Lesser Antilles, rough seas in E swell have mainly subsided and are now confined along 55W and eastward. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will persist in the central Caribbean through Wed, with winds gradually veering to the E as high pressure settles N of the area. An area of moisture associated with this frontal boundary will remain and move westward across the central Caribbean on Tue, reaching the coast of Nicaragua on Wed. Looking ahead, another cold front is expected to reach the NW Caribbean late on Thu, bringing fresh to strong N winds and building seas. The front will move quickly across the basin, reaching from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Thu night into Fri while weakening. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on the significant swell event occurring over portions of the northwest tropical Atlantic. A cold front in the central Atlantic extends from 31N53W to 21N63W where it then continues as a stationary front across Puerto Rico and into the central Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong winds are on either side of the front north of 23N, with similar winds south of 20N including through the Windward and Mona Passages. Very rough seas, in long period NW swell, are found in the wake of the front as described above. Rough seas are ahead of the front to the north of 28N. Another cold front is well to the east, extending from the coast of Morocco at 25N15W to 25N32W. High pressure of 1024 mb dominates in the wake and across the remainder of the open waters. Rough to very rough NW swell covers the waters north of 25N and east of 40W in the wake of this cold front. Fresh to strong NE-E trades are found south of the front to 10N between Africa and 45W. Gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail across the remainder of the open waters. Seas are 6 to 9 ft across the remainder of the open waters including across the fresh to strong trades. For the forecast west of 55W, the north part of the front will continue to move eastward while the southern part of it will remain nearly stationary in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands through early Wed, then the front will begin to lift N late on Wed ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off NE Florida on Thu. Another round of fresh to strong winds and building seas is expected with the next cold front.