Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Wed Feb 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell ranging from mainly 12 to 22 ft with 12 second periods covers much of the area north of 20N between 28W and 61W. A Sofar buoy indicated 22 ft near 30N47W. The swell is the result of gale force winds across the western Atlantic over the past couple of days. The swell will slowly decay from west to east allowing for these seas to drop below 12 ft (4 m) for most areas by early Wed evening. Mariners are urged to stay up to date with the latest forecasts. South-Central Caribbean Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient between building high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in Colombia and Panama will lead to fresh to strong winds across most of the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and the waters between Cuba and Jamaica into Wed night. Winds will pulse to minimal gale-force tonight and again on Wed night offshore Colombia. Seas with these winds are expected to be in the 8 to 11 ft (2.5 to 3.5 M) range. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on these events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the extreme southeast coast of Liberia near 05N08W to 01N15W and to 01N25W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to the the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection extends from 00N to 05N between 10W and 20W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface ridge extends across the Gulf, anchored by a 1026 mb high pressure that is centered northeast of the Bahamas near 28N74W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressure in the far western Gulf is generally allowing for gentle to moderate mostly southerly flow across the basin, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh south winds offshore NE Mexico and southern Texas. Both latest buoy and altimeter satellite data passes indicate seas of about 2 to 4 ft throughout, except for lower seas of 1 to 2 ft in the northeast Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure will generally dominate Gulf waters through late week, bringing a gentle to moderate mainly southerly flow. Locally fresh winds are expected tonight just west of the Yucatan Peninsula and over the far western waters. Slight to moderate seas will prevail. Looking ahead, southerly winds may increase this weekend ahead of an approaching cold front, that is forecast to move across the western Gulf on Sun followed by fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... See Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning in effect for the offshore waters of Colombia. High pressure north of the area is building southeastward toward the Caribbean, which is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds over mainly the central Caribbean, particularly across the Windward Passage, and between Colombia and Hispaniola. Seas across the central Caribbean are 7 to 10 ft, mainly due the winds, but with also a component of northerly swell slipping through the Mona Passage from the Atlantic. Gentle to moderate wind and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, aside from the Special Features forecast for gale-winds offshore Colombia tonight and Wed night, the same inducing pressure gradient of those winds will also lead to fresh to strong northeast to east winds over most of the central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and the waters between Cuba and Jamaica into Wed night. In addition, large northwest to north swell will impact the Mona Passage, Anegada Passage, and tropical N Atlantic waters into Wed creating hazardous marine conditions. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on an ongoing central Atlantic significant swell event. A cold front reaches from near the western Azores to 22N58W. Fresh to strong W to NW winds follow the front north of 29N as far west of 65W, and strong SW winds within 90nm ahead of the front north of 28N. 1026 mb high pressure is centered near 28N74W. Gentle breeze and 5 to 7 ft seas in N swell are noted west of 75W. Moderate breezes and 8 to 12 ft in NW swell are noted elsewhere west of the front. A ridge extends from near the Canary Islands southwestward to near 18N55W. Gentle breezes are noted along the ridge axis, with moderate to fresh NE winds elsewhere over the eastern Atlantic off Africa and tropical Atlantic. Seas are 7 to 11 ft in NW swell. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure dominates most of the forecast waters. On the west side of the high, southwesterly winds will increase over the NW waters starting tonight, then reach strong speeds Wed, with seas building to rough N of 28N. These winds will prevail over northern waters through Wed night, before shifting to fresh to strong NW as a cold front crosses the north waters into Thu. Very rough seas in NW to N swell E of 65W will gradually decay below 12 ft from W to E tonight, with improved seas by Wed. Wave heights SE of Bermuda are now around 15 ft.