Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Oct 3 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2120 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning and large swell: Gale force winds around the post-tropical low of Imelda are covering the waters N of 27.5N between 55W and 66W. Seas 12 ft or greater in swell generated from this system cover the waters N of 25N between 54W and 76W, with seas peaking around 25 ft near 31N58W. The post-tropical low of Imelda will shift NE. The gale force winds around the low will shift N of the area tonight as the system continues moving further from the area. The large swell, and associated 12 ft seas, will shift eastward and gradually subside through the first half of the weekend. Seas are forecast to subside below 12 ft late Sat night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 32W from 19N southward, and moving west at 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 57W from 18N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14.5N17W and extends to 08N47W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 10W and 47W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A pair of surface troughs are generating scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from the Bay of Campeche eastward to north of the Yucatan Peninsula and Channel, and isolated thunderstorms across the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, are noted over the NW Gulf as well as the far SW Gulf. Elsewhere light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-2 ft prevail. For the forecast, strong high pressure is located over the NE United States. The pressure gradient between this system and a developing low pressure forecast to move across the Florida Peninsula into the Gulf during the next day or two will lead to fresh to strong E winds and moderate to rough seas in the NE Gulf tonight, expanding into the north- central and NW Gulf Fri through Sat night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms can also be expected in these areas. Winds and seas will diminish Sun when the low pressure lift north and out of the Gulf region. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate winds prevail over the central Caribbean. Light to gentle winds are found elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range in the central Caribbean, and 1-2 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will persist across the basin through the forecast period, supporting gentle to moderate trade winds and slight to moderate seas. Meanwhile, northerly swell generated by post-tropical cyclone Imelda will propagate across NE Caribbean passages, including the waters just E of the Leeward Islands, building seas to 8 or 9 ft Fri through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features about a gale warning and large swell associated with post-tropical cyclone Imelda. A frontal trough extends from the post-tropical low of Imelda near 32N58W to near 24N70W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of this boundary. Outside the gale warning area, fresh to strong winds cover the discussion waters N of 26N between 49W and 70W. Seas greater than 8 ft from swell generated by Imelda cover the waters N of 23N and W of 55W. High pressure prevails across the waters E of 50W and N of 20N, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 30N35W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, generally prevail over these waters. For the forecast west of 55W, winds across the NE waters associated with post-tropical cyclone Imelda are forecast to diminish below gale force by tonight as the system moves further from the area. A building ridge over the western Atlantic combined with a frontal boundary extending roughly along 24N/25N will support fresh to strong winds across most of the area likely through Sun. Long period northerly swell generated by post- tropical cyclone Imelda will continue to affect just about the entire forecast domain through early next week. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure may may form along the frontal boundary near the northwestern Bahamas and southern Florida during the next day or two. Any additional development is expected to be slow to occur as the system moves northwestward across the Florida Peninsula and into the Gulf of America.