Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Feb 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 05N13W to 02N30W and to 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 05N and between 15W and 35W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The pressure gradient between a 1019 mb high pressure system centered east of Florida and lower pressures in Mexico and Texas support moderate to fresh southerly winds over much of the basin. However, a tighter gradient is noted north of the Yucatan peninsula resulting in fresh to strong SE winds. Seas north of Yucatan are 5-8 ft, while slight to moderate are present elsewhere. The southerly wind flow in the western Gulf waters is lifting smoke from agricultural fires in SE Mexico northward. Aside from lower visibility from the smoke mainly over the SW portion of the basin, dense fog is likely to develop over the coastal waters of the northern and western Gulf coast. For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE winds and moderate seas are expected over the central and western Gulf through Fri before the high shifts E. Locally strong E to SE winds will pulse in the south- central basin, north of the Yucatan Peninsula, each afternoon and night through Fri as a trough develops daily over the region. A strong cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sat evening and shift across the basin through early next week. Gale force winds and very rough seas are expected offshore of Veracruz Sun and Sun night. Widespread fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are expected elsewhere in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An expansive subtropical ridge located north of the islands supports strong to near gale-force easterly winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that the strongest winds are present north of Colombia. Fresh to strong E-SE winds and seas of 5-7 ft are found in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the north-central and eastern Caribbean and much of the NW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are evident in the lee of Cuba and between Cuba and Jamaica. Scattered showers are seen within 120 nm of the coast of Costa Rica and western Panama. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between Atlantic high pressure to the north, along 27N, and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds in the south-central Caribbean through this weekend. Winds may reach near-gale force each night offshore of northern Colombia, with rough seas expected within and to the west of these winds. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E to SE winds and occasionally rough seas will pulse in the eastern Gulf of Honduras into early Sun. Moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds are expected over the rest of the Caribbean basin through the forecast period. Rough seas will develop E of the Lesser Antilles tonight into the weekend as N swell progresses through the central tropical Atlantic. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will move through the Gulf of America this weekend and move into the NW Caribbean early Mon, reaching from far eastern Cuba to near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border Tue morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge that maintains moderate or weaker winds. Seas of 7-9 ft are found between 55W and 65W, while 4-7 ft are noted west of 65W. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and a cold front north of the area sustain moderate to fresh westerly winds and rough seas north of 30N and between 50W and 57W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas are evident south of 20N and west of 35W. A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N39W to 24N69W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and rough seas are found ahead of the front to 35W and north of 28N. Decaying NW swell is also producing rough seas in the central Atlantic between 25W and 55W and north of 20N. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are occurring east of 25N and north of 22N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in N swell occurring east of 65W will subside from west to east through Sat. Elsewhere, 1019 mb high pressure located NE of the Bahamas will shift slowly E through the weekend, producing moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds offshore of northern Florida into this weekend. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere through Sat. A strong cold front will push offshore of the southeastern U.S. on Sun, with strong NW winds and rapidly building seas behind the front through early next week.