Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Jan 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... NE Atlantic Significant Swell: Residual NW swell will maintain seas near 12 ft in the NE Atlantic north of 28N and E of 40W. These seas will subside below 12 ft tonight. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends just offshore Africa along 10N to around 15W. The ITCZ stretches along 06N from 11W to 42W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 04N to 07N between 11W and 18W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Convection associated with a weakening surface trough in the western Bay of Campeche diminished this afternoon, leaving the basin dominated by a 1023 mb high pressure centered near 26N91W. This is inducing mainly gentle anticyclonic flow basin-wide, with slight seas. For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will prevail over the basin through Fri morning as high pressure builds over the central Gulf of America. Fresh to locally strong SW to W winds and moderate seas will develop over the northern Gulf on Fri as a warm front, associated with a low pressure system moving through the southern U.S., lifts northward. A cold front trailing the low is slated to enter the northern Gulf on Sat, leading to moderate N winds behind the front. High pressure will build over the basin in the wake of the front Sun into next week ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough that extends from just south of Haiti to just offshore Colombia is inducing scattered moderate convection within 150 nm S of Hispaniola. Earlier convection in western Caribbean waters has diminished this afternoon. The dominant winds over the basin are fresh NE, but strong N winds are ongoing offshore Nicaragua, and strong E winds are present offshore western Venezuela. In addition, gentle to moderate winds are present in the NE basin, near the Yucatan Peninsula, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Seas are 5 to 8 ft, except 3 to 5 ft in the NE Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas will prevail over the central and western Caribbean, including through the Windward Passage, through Fri as high pressure builds over the Gulf of America. Locally strong N winds will be possible offshore of Nicaragua through late this evening. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the south-central basin through Sat as low pressure anchors over northern Colombia. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are then expected over much of the Caribbean Sun into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for information on very rough seas in the NE Atlantic. A cold front extends from the north-central Atlantic across 31N54W to 26N63W. Scattered moderate convection is along and up to 90 nm E of this boundary, with more scattered moderate convection being caused by converging low-level southerly winds from 22N to 28N between 54W and 59W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic basin. Behind the cold front, N of 26N, fresh W winds are ongoing, with ahead of the cold front, N of 25N and E to 50W, moderate to fresh SW winds are present. Rough seas are occurring in both areas of higher winds. In the NE Atlantic, another cold front extends from the Canary Islands to just NW of the Cabo Verde Islands. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas follow this front to the N of 25N. Elsewhere, moderate seas prevail, and winds are moderate or weaker, except for a zone of fresh trades and 6 to 9 ft seas from 05N to 15N between 30W and 55W. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will progress east through the evening, with moderate to fresh SW winds E of the front, and N of 28N. Rough seas associated with this front, north of 27N and east of 60W, will slowly subside from west to east by late tonight. Elsewhere, fresh W winds and locally rough seas occurring well offshore of northern Florida will expand eastward today as a cold front passing north of the waters moves eastward. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas are expected to develop offshore of northern and central Florida on Sat, ahead of a cold front moving through the southeastern U.S. The front is forecast to enter the northwest tropical Atlantic later this weekend, supporting fresh N winds and locally rough seas behind the front. These winds and seas will expand southeastward into early next week.