Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat May 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will move across the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight into Sunday. A tight pressure gradient will support gale force winds on either side of the cold front Sun afternoon, south and southeast of Bermuda generally N of 29N between 55W and 65W. Strong to near- gale force winds, rough to very rough seas, and scattered to numerous thunderstorms are also expected mainly along and ahead of the front, north of 26N. Conditions will improve Mon as the front weakens and high pressure builds in its wake. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An east Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed along 17W, south of 16N. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 10W and 21W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 61W, south of 17N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 13N between 57W and 62W. A Caribbean tropical wave is analyzed along 75W, south of 16N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers are seen near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N16W and continues southwestward to 06N22W. The ITCZ extends from 06N22W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along and within 200 nm of the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 22W westward. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Divergence aloft associated with a sharp upper level trough over the western Gulf and a broad surface trough over the central to SW Gulf combine to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over a the eastern half of the basin. At the surface, a weak pressure gradient results in moderate or lighter winds and slight seas. However, stronger winds and higher seas can occur within stronger thunderstorms. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends across Florida into the Gulf region. This system will sustain gentle to moderate E to SE winds through midweek. The exception will be evening pulses of fresh winds off the northern Yucatan and in the central Gulf through the same period. A pronounced deep-layered upper-level trough across the western Gulf combined with a very warm, humid and unstable airmass will continue to support rounds of showers and thunderstorms, across the central and eastern Gulf through at least Sun. Frequent lightning, with gusty winds and locally rough seas are expected in strong thunderstorms. Mariners are urged to keep up to date with the latest forecasts. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A few showers and thunderstorms are active over the far southwest Caribbean near the eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough. In the NW Caribbean, scattered moderate to strong convection is developing along a surface trough analyzed from the Gulf of Honduras along the coasts of Belize and the eastern Yucatan Peninsula. No other significant convection is observed at this time. A strong Atlantic ridge extends southwestward into the Caribbean, supporting fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 6-8 ft in the south-central Caribbean, confirmed by scatterometer and altimeter data from this morning. Moderate to fresh breezes and moderate seas are found in the rest of the basin away from the lee of Cuba, where light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh E to SE trade winds across most of the basin through the early part of the next week, with fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean. Looking ahead, the area of fresh to strong winds and rough seas will expand across the central Caribbean Tue and Wed as the ridge builds north of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends along 30-31N from near 58W to a 1012 mb low near 31N78W, with a dissipating stationary front between the low and the GA coast. A surface trough extends from the low to the northern Bahamas, and is supporting scattered moderate convection along and east of the trough. SW winds ahead of the front, generally N of 27N between 55W and 63W are increasing to fresh to strong speeds while seas build to 7-9 ft. Ridging prevails across much of the remaining Atlantic. Fresh to strong NE winds and 6-9 ft seas prevail N of 14N and E of 25W, confirmed by scatterometer data from this morning. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail across much of the Atlantic W of 25W and S of 22N. The remainder of the basin away from any fronts or other features is seeing gentle to moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a few thunderstorms are active near a 1012 mb low pressure area located off northeast Florida. The low is along a stationary front extending from 31N58W to the low center. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas will follow the low pressure as it moves eastward through tonight ahead of a reinforcing cold front moving into the area. The combined fronts will shift eastward, reaching from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by early Sun. Expect strong winds and rough to very rough seas along and ahead of the front north of 25N Sun, with gale-force winds south of Bermuda near 30N63W by Sun afternoon. The front will weaken and stall from 31N57W to 27N65W by early Mon. Winds and seas diminish west of the front as high pressure builds between northeast Florida and Bermuda. Looking ahead, a second low pressure area and accompanying front may move off northeast Florida by late Mon and shift eastward toward Bermuda through mid week, accompanied by fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the waters north of 27N.