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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Jan 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche. Gale force N winds have diminished slightly near Tampico, Mexico while they continue S of 22N offshore Veracruz with an earlier ASCAT scatterometer pass showing winds around 45 kt and they could be slightly higher. Gale conditions are expected in Veracruz adjacent waters through Mon. Winds may continue to peak around 45 kt near Veracruz early today. Seas will continue to build and likely peak at around 21 ft offshore of Veracruz today and tonight. The front will weaken and stall from near western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon evening. Conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually improve Mon night into Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Sierra Leone near 08N13W, then runs southwestward to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to the coast of Brazil at 00.5N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 22W and 52.5W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A Gale Warning is in effect for the W-central Gulf and western Bay of Campeche. Please read the Special Features section above for details. As previously mentioned, a strong cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to the central Bay of Campeche. Strong to near gale force northerly winds are behind the front with gale force winds S of 22N, along with rough to very rough seas. A narrow band of showers and thunderstorms is along the front, primarily S of 25N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also seen on conventional infrared satellite imagery in the eastern Bay of Campeche with a surface trough analyzed along the W coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. The remainder of the area is under the influence of a surface ridge, that extends from near Bermuda, across Florida into the Gulf region. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and moderate seas are ahead of the front, with the exception of slight seas within 120 nm of the Florida Peninsula. For the forecast, as the front continues to move through the basin winds will peak around 45 kt near into today. Seas will continue to build and likely peak at around 21 ft offshore of Veracruz today and tonight. The front will weaken and stall from near western Cuba to the Yucatan Channel to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon evening. Conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually improve Mon night into Tue. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin through early Wed. The next cold front could impact the basin with increasing winds and building seas by Wed night, with that front rapidly shifting SE of the basin Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic and lower pressures in NW South America results in strong to near gale-force NE winds in the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are in the rough range. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas prevail. Patches of low level moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, are moving across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, strong to near gale force NE to E winds will pulse offshore of NW Colombia through tonight due to the pressure gradient between building high pressure N of the region and low pressure over northern Colombia, resulting in rough seas. After tonight, fresh to locally strong winds will prevail there. Pulsing moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast elsewhere in the central and SW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage and Hispaniola adjacent waters through at least the early part of the week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail. A decaying cold front may move into or near the far NW Caribbean early this week where it will stall and wash out. Another front may move into the NW basin Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad 1027 mb high pressure system centered NE of Bermuda near 32.5N52.5W extends a ridge across the western Atlantic, Florida and the Bahamas. A surface trough is analyzed from 31N37W to 24N49W, with an inverted trough analyzed near 55W from 20N to 29N. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas prevail across most of the waters N of 20N and W of 50W except weaker right under the ridge axis. An area of showers and thunderstorms is on the E side of the inverted trough. This convective activity covers roughly the waters from 20N to 28N between 50W and 57W. Farther E, high pressure of 1028 mb located near the Madeira Islands dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures in the vicinity of the Monsoon trough/ITCZ is generating a large area of fresh to strong NE to E winds from 07N to 25N E of 35W to the coast of W Africa, along with rough seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas are noted over the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will emerge off the NE Florida coast later today. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas will follow this front, which is forecast to reach from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Mon morning. Thereafter, the front will become stationary as it dissipates Mon night into Tue. The next cold front may enter the NW waters by Wed night, reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas late Thu night, with associated gale winds possible N of 29N Thu night.