Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Oct 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0325 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 28W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A 1011 mb low pressure is analyzed along the wave and monsoon trough near 12N28W. The broad system is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, mainly from 07N to 17N and between 20W and 33W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh to strong cyclonic winds associated with this feature. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 37W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 16N and between 33W and 46W. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave continues to interact with an upper-level low over the NW Caribbean, and is supporting scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over much of the NW Caribbean. Diurnal heating and the features described are also enhancing convection over Central America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 17N16W and continues southwestward to a 1011 mb low near 12N28W and then to a 1012 mb low near 10N40W and to 07N44W. The ITCZ extends from 07N44W to 05N52W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, convection is limited elsewhere. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle near Apalachicola south and southwest to 24N90W and 23N97W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found ahead of the front over the eastern Gulf waters. A surface trough is analyzed over Yucatan and extending northward to 25N86W. A few showers are also evident near these trough, however, the strongest convection is occurring over the Yucatan peninsula. The moderate pressure gradient between the high pressure over the southern United States and the aforementioned cold front support moderate to locally fresh easterly winds over much of the NW and north- central Gulf, along with moderate seas. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh SW winds and scattered thunderstorms will persist over the NE Gulf through tonight. The aforementioned front will move across the southeast Gulf through mid week, while lifting northward as a dissipating warm front over the western Gulf. High pressure will build behind the front over the north- central Gulf, supporting E to SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida Straits to the Texas coast by mid week, and gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Tropical Waves section for details on an active tropical wave in the western Caribbean. High pressure north of the islands extends into the Caribbean, forcing moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas across much of the basin. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off Colombia. A broad upper-level low approaching the Leeward Islands is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms over the eastern Caribbean, affecting much of the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas will persist across the eastern and central Caribbean through the early part of the week, with fresh to strong E winds and rough seas across the Windward Passage and off Colombia. These winds and seas will diminish through mid week as the high pressure shifts eastward ahead of a cold front moving through the Gulf. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N49W and continues southwestward to 28N55W, followed by a stationary front to 26N61W and then northwestward to 31N69W. A few showers are noted near these boundaries. Meanwhile, showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident off NE Florida ahead of a cold front moving across the eastern Gulf of America. The modest pressure gradient between a strong ridge over the NW Atlantic and the aforementioned front and a trough north of the Leeward Islands sustain moderate to locally strong anticyclonic winds over much of the SW North Atlantic, west of 60W and north of the front west of 50W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a 1025 mb high pressure located just SE of the Azores. The pressure gradient between its associated ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the monsoon trough supports moderate to locally strong NE to E winds N of the monsoon trough to about 26N and east of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move off the NE Florida coast early Mon, reach from 31N75W to near Jupiter Inlet, Florida by early Tue, and then stall and dissipate from Bermuda to the Upper Florida Keys by early Wed. Looking ahead, fresh N winds and building seas may follow another front reaching along 30N east of 75W by late Thu night.