Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Nov 5 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 89W over the eastern Yucatan Peninsula including Belize to the western Gulf of Honduras south of 21N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the Gulf of Honduras, the E Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and NE Nicaragua offshore waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08.5N13W and continues westward to near 08.5N18.5W. The ITCZ continues from 08.5N18.5W to 08.5N35W to French Guiana at 05.5W54W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N to 11N between 18W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The tail of a dissipating stationary front extends just to the N of the Yucatan Channel to just the NW Yucatan Peninsula adjacent waters and is bringing scattered showers to the Straits of Florida and portions of the SE Gulf mainly south of Cape Coral, Florida. A strong and broad ridge has built in the wake of this front, which continues to support a somewhat tight gradient leading to moderate to fresh NE to E winds in the SE basin as indicated by earlier scatterometer data. Seas are moderate with these winds while slight seas are elsewhere, except to 6 ft in the Bay of Campeche. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds in the SE Gulf due to the pressure gradient between a stalled frontal boundary just north of the Yucatan Peninsula and high pressure building in the eastern U.S. will diminish this afternoon as the front dissipates. Thereafter and elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are expected over the Gulf through Sat night. The next possibly strong cold front may enter the basin Sun with fresh to strong winds and building seas behind it. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong high pressure well N of the area continues to build a ridge across the SW N Atlantic waters behind a stationary front that starts to weaken across the Turks and Caicos Islands to central Cuba into the SE Gulf of America. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure, the eastern extent of the east Pacific monsoon trough and a tropical wave moving across the Yucatan Peninsula is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds over the central and western Caribbean, except gentle to moderate W of 85W. Gentle to moderate E winds prevail over the eastern Caribbean. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the central and western Caribbean, and 2-4 ft over the eastern Caribbean. A surface trough analyzed from N of the Dominican Republic to the SW over Haiti is supporting some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms nearby. Similar activity is noted in the far SE Caribbean due to a mid to upper level trough. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds are expected across the central through southwestern Caribbean into early Thu as the pressure gradient prevails between weak high pressure to the north and low pressure in the south-central basin. Elsewhere, fresh NE winds will occur through the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba into this afternoon as high pressure builds to the north of a dissipating stationary front draped over the northwestern Caribbean. Looking ahead, mainly moderate trade winds and moderate seas are expected over the basin Thu into this weekend, except freshening in the eastern and central portions late in the weekend. Rough seas in northerly swell will build in the Tropical N Atlantic late in the week and this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 30N55W to 26N63W then continues as stationary to across the Turks and Caicos to central Cuba. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and rough seas to 11 ft are behind the front, with seas 8 ft or higher affecting the offshores N of 27N and E of 73W. Ahead of the cold front, fresh to strong SW winds are observed N of 29N and eastward to 45W. Scattered showers are ongoing across portions of the Bahamas and the approaches to the Straits of Florida. The remainder central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge anchored by a 1020 mb high centered near 26N35W, which is providing moderate or weaker winds to this region, except locally fresh from 08N to 16N between 35W and a trough analyzed from 16.5N51W to 07N50W. Seas are 6-8 ft near these locally fresh winds. Otherwise, large NW swell is supporting rough seas to 10 ft N of 28N and E of the cold front all the way to just W of the Canary Islands. Seas are 5-7 ft across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold portion will progress eastward through midweek while the stationary portions gradually dissipates. Widespread moderate to fresh NE winds are expected north of the Greater Antilles through this evening as high pressure builds over the eastern U.S. behind the front. Northerly swell associated with the front will expand southeastward over the next several days, leading to rough seas north of 25N and east of 75W today. Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft will be possible in the central Atlantic north of 28N and east of 62W later today through Thu morning. Looking ahead, rough seas will be reinforced over the waters east of 65W by Fri as a strong strong storm system passes north of the waters. The next cold front may approach the NW waters late in the upcoming weekend.