Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Mar 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low will continue to support strong to near gale-force NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas across the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean through at least Sat. Winds will pulse to gale-force over these waters at night with the added component of nocturnal drainage flow. Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A previous gale force wind event off the Canary Islands generated a large NE swell with very rough seas to 13 ft. The swell has propagated from this source region, with the very rough seas currently over the waters from 12N to 21N between 36W and 53W. These seas will gradually subside from east to west through tonight. Rough seas are then forecast to subside E of the Lesser Antilles this weekend. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 05N08W to 02N11W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 03S26W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 03S to 06N between 05W and 45W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak surface trough is analyzed in the NE Gulf along 87W with little convection near it. Surface ridging dominates elsewhere and supports moderate to fresh E winds E of 87W, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Seas are mainly slight basin-wide. For the forecast, high pressure will extend from the N central Atlantic southwestward across the region through the week, with the resultant pressure gradient supporting moderate to fresh east to southeast winds across the Gulf, except in the Bay of Campeche where winds will be mostly moderate northeast to east. Fresh to strong winds will occur nocturnally off the northern Yucatan Peninsula starting today. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean. Surface ridging from strong high pressure centered N of the area is supporting fresh to near-gale winds over the eastern and central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee side of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Seas in the regions of highest winds are moderate, except for rough seas in the south-central and SE Caribbean. For the forecast, a broad area of high pressure over the central Atlantic will support fresh to near gale-force trades along with moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean through Sat night. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the nocturnal hours through the weekend. Fresh to strong northeast winds in the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba will continue to pulse through the forecast period. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong winds will begin to pulse at night from Thu through Sat. Elsewhere, rough to very rough seas in wind generated east swell over the tropical N Atlantic will begin to slowly subside on Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features above for information on a significant swell event. A strong Azores High extending a ridge into the deep tropical waters continues to support a broad area of fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas from the coast of W Africa all the way to the Lesser Antilles and between the ITCZ and 26N. Over the E Atlantic subtropical waters, the passage of a cold front is bringing strong to near gale-force N to NW winds to the waters just N of the Canary Islands. Long period NW swell is supporting very rough seas to 15 ft within this area of very strong winds. Lastly, a stationary front extends from 31N56W southwestward to 24N69W being followed by strong NE to E winds and rough seas to 11 ft extending westward toward 74W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail along and E of the front to about 55W. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will become diffuse by this evening. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds along with rough to very rough seas behind the front will diminish tonight. However, seas will linger into Wed while expanding southeastward and merging with similar seas south of 25N east of Bahamas. Otherwise, strong high pressure will become centered over the western N Atlantic through the next few days. It will be the main feature controlling the general flow wind pattern across the region, with fresh to strong east winds confined to mostly south of 25N.