Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Jan 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move across the basin Sunday and Monday. Arctic high pressure settling in behind the front is expected to drive strong to near-gale-force NW winds across NW portions of the Gulf Sun and Sun night. Gale conditions are possible over the offshore waters of Tampico Sun night into Mon, and over the waters offshore Veracruz on Mon and Mon night. Seas will quickly build behind the front as well, with rough to very rough seas expected. Seas look to peak around 16-18 ft in the SW Gulf on Monday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, then continues SW to near 06N16W. The ITCZ extends from 06N16W to 01N23W to 03N33W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 20W and 45W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends across the northern Gulf waters, from the western Florida Panhandle to 27N92W and to the central coast of Texas. Scattered showers are seen near this boundary, while moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 3-5 ft prevail north of the front. Otherwise, a surface ridge dominates the remainder of the Gulf region supporting a gentle to moderate E wind flow and slight seas. For the forecast, a cold front extending from the central Florida Panhandle to 27.5N87W and to the central Texas coast will linger through Sat morning before it lifts N as a warm front, ahead of a strong Arctic cold front expected Sat afternoon. The cold front will approach the Texas coast early on Sat, then stall across the Texas coastal waters Sat afternoon as low pressure forms near the southern Texas coast and rides NE along the front through Sun. The front will then move SE across the entire basin Sun through Mon evening. Strong reinforcing Arctic high pressure behind the front is expected to produce near gale force winds across NW portions of the Gulf Sun and Sun night, then possible gale conditions over the offshore waters of Tampico Sun night into Mon, then gales over the waters offshore Veracruz on Mon and Mon night. Conditions will improve quickly from NW to SE Tue through Wed as the front moves SE into the NW Caribbean. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The most recent scatterometer passes show fresh to strong trades over the south-central to SW Caribbean due to the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian/Panamanian low. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these winds. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere across the eastern and central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas prevail across the NW part of the basin. For the forecast, broad central Atlantic high pressure will maintain mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters through early next week, while fresh winds offshore of Colombia pulse to strong speeds at night through Sun, then to near gale force afterward into midweek. Large E swell over the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside through the weekend, but remain around 8 ft through early next week. A cold front will enter the NW Caribbean late Mon and begin to stall from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by late Tue into Wed. Strong northerly winds will follow the front before slowly diminishing to moderate to fresh speeds Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is analyzed from the Moroccan coast near 26N15W to 25N21W to 26N29W, where it transitions to a shear line that extends to 31N38W. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are N of the front and shear line. Very rough seas of 12-16 ft are seen N of 28N. Elsewhere, surface ridging dominates much of the Atlantic, with fresh to strong trades and seas of 7-11 ft prevailing across much of the Atlantic S of 25N and E of 60W. Moderate to fresh trades and 6-8 ft seas are S of 25N between 60W and 70W, with moderate or weaker winds and seas elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, weak 1017 mb low pressure is near 29N74.5W, with a trough extending SW into the NW Bahamas. Meanwhile, high pressure is centered across the central Atlantic and extends a broad ridge to just S of Bermuda. The low and ridge will shift slowly NE through Sat night. Fresh to strong S to SW winds will develop over the NW forecast waters Sun evening through early Mon in advance of a strong Arctic cold front that is expected to move offshore northeastern Florida early Mon. Winds to near gale will develop just N of the area early on Mon. The front will reach from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and Straits of Florida early Mon evening, from near 31N56W to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba Tue evening, then weaken as it reaches from near 31N50W to 27N60W and stationary to the SE Bahamas and eastern Cuba by late on Wed. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are expected W of the front Mon afternoon through Tue, becoming mostly fresh NE winds on Wed within about 180 nm NW of the frontal boundary.