Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Oct 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 35W, from 10N to 22N, moving westward near 10 kt. A tight gradient between the wave and high pressure to its north is producing fresh to strong easterly winds from 21N to 26N between 28W and 36W. Seas with these winds are 8 to 11 ft (2.5 to 3.5 m). Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 18N to 26N between 27W and 32W. A tropical wave is near 48W, from 10N to 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N to 21N between 41W and 49W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 13N17W to 19N34W to 12N48W. The ITCZ extends from 11N52W to 09N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 11N between 25W and 36W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1018 mb high is centered over southern Alabama and extends a broad ridge south-southwestward across the basin. Recent scatterometer data show gentle to moderate northeast to east winds across the eastern half of the Gulf S of 28N, and east to southeast winds of the same speed W of 90W. Seas basin-wide are in the range of 1 to 5 ft. Fair skies prevail. For the forecast, high pressure over the north-central Gulf will support E to SE winds and moderate seas from the Florida Straits to the Texas coast, and gentle breezes and slight seas elsewhere. A cold front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf Fri night, and reach from southwest Florida to the far southwest Gulf by Sat night. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front, with gales possible off the coast of Mexico between Tampico and Coatzacoalcos late Fri night into Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A middle-level low is supporting widely scattered showers in the lee side of Cuba adjacent waters, and in the Gulf of Honduras while an upper-level low over the eastern half of the Caribbean is supporting scattered heavy showers and isolated tstms over Hispaniola and its adjacent waters, including the Windward Passage and the Mona Passage. A recent scatterometer pass show fresh to strong ESE winds S of Haiti and in the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker, with seas fluctuating between 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms will be active across the central Caribbean through tonight, associated with an upper-level low. Fresh E to SE winds will persist north of 13N south and southwest of Jamaica through mid week, north of broad low pressure over the southwest Caribbean. Trade winds will increase along with building seas over the south-central Caribbean as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Surface ridging anchored by a 1019 mb in North Carolina, and a 1018 mb high in southern Alabama is starting to build over the SW N Atlantic waters just N of the Bahamas and west of a couple of surface troughs that linger between 53W and 68W. The remainder subtropical central and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores High, which is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas to 6 ft between the coast of NW Africa and 26W, including the Canary Islands. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate to slight seas dominate elsewhere N of 20N and W of 26W. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will move southward into the waters east of 75W into Wed, then stall and dissipate along 29N through Thu. A stronger cold front will move into the waters off northeast Florida by late Fri night into early Sat morning, and reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Sat. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas will follow the front.