Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Oct 14 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0925 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lorenzo is centered near 16.2N 42.8W at 14/0300 UTC or 1080 nm W of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving NW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are around 21 ft (6.5 M). The storm is poorly organized and clusters of moderate to strong convection extend are found within 200 nm over the eastern semicircle. Lorenzo is moving toward the NW and this motion is expected to continue today, followed by a turn to the north tonight. A northeastward motion is expected on Wednesday and Thursday. Little change in strength is forecast over the next few days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Lorenzo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 23W, south of 13N, moving west at 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 13N and between 19W and 26W. Another eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W, south of 12N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 02N to 12N and between 30W and 37W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 56W, south of 15N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 14N and between 52W and 62W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 07N23W and to 06N35W. The ITCZ extends from 06N35W to 07N44W. No additional convection is evident near the monsoon trough/ITCZ. GULF OF AMERICA... A weak high pressure system over Louisiana supports moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and seas of 2-4 ft over much of the basin. A few pockets of low-level moisture travel across the SE and western Gulf waters, resulting in isolated, shallow showers. For the forecast, weak ridging will prevail through the forecast period, resulting in gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the Gulf. Winds are forecast to increase to fresh speeds over the eastern and central Gulf Thu night through Sat night as the pressure gradient tightens some across the area. Winds will veer to the SE and S toward the end of the week as high pressure over the SE United States shifts eastward into the western Atlantic. Looking ahead, a cold front will reach the northern waters on Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergence aloft, plenty of tropical moisture and a weak surface trough across the NW Caribbean combine to produce abundant showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of the NW and SW Caribbean. A few showers are also seen in the central and eastern Caribbean. A weak pressure gradient across the basin sustains moderate easterly trade winds and moderate seas in the eastern and central Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. However, mariners are advised that stronger winds and higher seas are likely near the strongest storms. For the forecast, a cold front extends from 31N73W to the NW Bahamas and will move across Cuba and the NW Caribbean today through Thu. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the wake of the front. Unsettled weather conditions will persist along and ahead of the frontal boundary. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the basin through the work week. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Lorenzo is well E of the forecast region near 17.2N 43.8W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Lorenzo in the central Atlantic. An extratropical cyclone off the Carolinas extends a cold front to the NW Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection is noted ahead of this boundary. Fresh W winds and rough seas are found N of 30N and between 71W and 75W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and moderate winds are occurring north of 27N and between 65W and 71W. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds and moderate seas are present south of 23N and between 60W and 75W. Farther east, a 1005 mb low pressure near 29N55W extends a surface trough to 25N60W. A few showers are found ahead of the trough. Fresh to strong cyclonic winds and seas of 5-9 ft are present north of 26N and between 47W and 60W. The rest of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is dominated by a weak high pressure system centered between Bermuda and Puerto Rico, supporting light to gentle winds and moderate seas. Outside of Lorenzo, the central and eastern tropical Atlantic waters are also under the influence of a relaxed gradient as multiple storm systems transit across the midlatitudes. In general, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas dominate these waters. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move SE across the forecast waters through the week. The front will reach from 31N70W to western Cuba by Tue morning, from near Bermuda to central Cuba by Wed morning, and from 31N60W to eastern Cuba by Thu morning. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected on either side of the front across the waters N of 27N by Tue night. These marine conditions will shift eastward with the front through late in the week. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Lorenzo is well E of the forecast region near 17.2N 43.8W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving northwest at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1000 mb.