Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Feb 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0950 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force winds ahead and following an Arctic cold front that extends from 31N56W to Puerto Rico to the NW Colombia offshore waters will diminish to fresh to near gale force speeds later this morning. Currently seas are in the range of 18 to 24 ft behind the front N of 24N and W to near 74W, except to near 78W N of the Bahamas. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are W of 74W to the Bahamas and also N of the Bahamas W of 78W. Seas ahead of the front are 10 to 14 ft E to near 55W and N of 28N. These sea conditions will slowly subside to 12 ft by early Tue morning, then to 8 to 10 ft late on Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 04N18W where it transitions to the ITCZ, which continues to 01N35W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03S to 04N between 20W and 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure building across the area, with a 1032 mb high center located near 28N93W, and a deepening low off the New England coast is maintaining moderate to fresh NW to N winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the SW Gulf. Seas are still rough to 10 ft in the SE Gulf in NW to N swell. The highest of the seas are found near and in the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, rough seas to 10 ft over the SE Gulf will subside later this morning. Afterward, a high building eastward will support gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas for the central and eastern Gulf. For the western Gulf, a period of fresh to strong southerly winds are anticipated from this evening through Tue morning. Another cold front is expected to enter the northern Gulf on Wed, then sweep southward across the Gulf through Thu night. The front will bring fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong Arctic cold front extends from Puerto Rico southwest to the NW Colombia offshores. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas follow the front with seas to 12 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds are ongoing in the SE basin with moderate seas. Satellite imagery shows scattered moderate convection along and near the front between Hispaniola and NW Colombia. For the forecast, the Arctic cold front will move across Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands today, then will stall from the northern Leeward Islands to the south-central Caribbean tonight into Tue morning and dissipate Tue night. Strong to near-gale force N to NE winds and rough seas behind this front will gradually shift eastward from the western Caribbean to the central Caribbean through Tue. Winds and seas are forecast to gradually diminish across the central Caribbean by Wed evening. On Thu, another cold front is expected to approach the NW Caribbean and cause building seas and winds there toward the next weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on an ongoing Gale Warning for sections of the western Atlantic. Elsewhere, a cold front enters the far eastern Atlantic near 31N18W and continue to 27N30W, where it transitions to a weakening stationary front to near 26N36W. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds are W of the front to near 30W and N of 28N. Seas are in the range of 7 to 10 ft in NW swell with these winds. The weather pattern for the rest of the basin is basically controlled by a 1027 mb high center analyzed N of the area near 33N37W. Its related gradient is generally allowing for mostly fresh trades to exist S of 24N and E of the Leeward Islands. Seas are in the range of 8 to 10 ft in NE to E swell over this area. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes indicate moderate or weaker winds across the remainder of the basin. Latest altimeter satellite data passes and buoy observations reveal that rough seas cover the majority of the remainder of the waters, slightly lower from 25N to 28N E of 51W to vicinity of the Canary Islands and the coast of Africa. For the forecast west of 55W, gale force winds ahead and following the Artic cold front will diminish to fresh to near gale force speeds by later this morning. Afterward, winds will further diminish to gentle and moderate speeds on Tue as the front pulls eastward and weaken. Dangerous seas at 24 ft will steadily subside to 12 ft by Tue morning, then 8 to 10 ft late Tue. In the long run, another cold front is going to move off the southeast U.S. coast on Thu, resulting in building winds and seas north of 25N through the next weekend. Mariners are urged to remain cautious through Mon and stay up to date with the latest forecasts.