Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Wed Apr 01 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western and Central Atlantic Large Swell: A weakening stationary front extends southwestward from the north- central Atlantic across 31N45W to 25N57W. A shear line curves westward from 25N57W to off northern Hispaniola. A broad area of strong NE winds is noted N of this boundary, impacting most waters between 70W and the front. Waves from these winds combined with significant northerly swell is leading to very rough seas of up to 16 ft in a zone from 21N to 30N between 50W and 68W. Rough seas cover waters N of 19N between 40W and the Bahamas. The swell should gradually decay over the next couple of days, with seas likely falling below 12 ft by Wed night. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the following website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtm for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is confined to Africa. The ITCZ extends from 02N14W to 00N39W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 05N and between 14W and 28W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A broad subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic extends into the eastern Gulf waters, supporting mainly moderate SE winds and seas. Fresh E winds have developed offshore the northern Yucatan Peninsula in association with a surface trough over the peninsula and also through the Florida Straits and offshore western Cuba, where the pressure gradient is slightly tighter. Convergent low- level winds in the north-central basin has induced scattered moderate convection N of 25N between 87W and 91W. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas are expected over the E Gulf through Sat night. Over the western half of the Gulf, moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast, except for strong E to SE winds off the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night. A cold front may enter the western Gulf Sunday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The gradient between high pressure centered near Bermuda and lower pressure over South America is maintain moderate to fresh trades over the basin, with strong NE to E winds through the Windward Passage, S of Hispaniola, and offshore Colombia. Locally rough seas are present in each of these areas, as well as through Atlantic passages, where N swell is propagating through. Previous convection over the Caribbean has mostly dissipated early this evening. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through the forecast period, pulsing to near gale at night through midweek. This pattern will also support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Thu nigh. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section for information about the large swell. A stationary front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N45W and continues southwestward to 25N57W, where it transitions into a shear line to just off northern Hispaniola. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm of these boundaries. Please see the Special Features section above for details on the winds and seas in association with this front. A large plume of Saharan dust envelops the far NE Atlantic, especially north of 22N and east of 20W. Mariners in these waters should use caution due to reduced visibility. The central and eastern Atlantic are under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge. Fresh easterly winds and rough seas are found north of 22N and east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure will prevail across the forecast waters through the remainder of the week into the weekend. Fresh to strong NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas, are expected across most of the offshore forecast waters through the remainder of the week. Winds will diminish this weekend with seas slowly subsiding.