Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Jun 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2240 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 24W-25W, from 16N southward, moving west at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 36W, from 16N southward, moving westward at 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 49W, from 17N southward, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below. The axis of a tropical wave is along 75W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The tropical wave is interacting with an upper level trough to it's W, enhancing convection. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 11N to 19N between 70W and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 14.5N17W and extends to 11N21W. The ITCZ extends from 11N21W to 09N24W, then from 07.5N26W to 07N35W, then from 06.5N38W to 06N46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04.5N to 10.5N between 17W and 35W, and from 01.5N to 08N between 36W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered offshore of Georgia. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure, and low pressure around TS Boris, and TS Cristina is supporting moderate E winds over the SE Gulf. Gentle winds prevail across the NE Gulf, while moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range west of 90W, and 2-3 ft E of 90W. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region through Fri, supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to locally fresh winds in the western Gulf. Slight to moderate seas will prevail. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will support moderate to fresh E winds pulsing to fresh to speeds during the evenings through at least Wed. Looking ahead, a trough or weak low pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche, perhaps from late Thu through Fri night, accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms along with fresh to strong winds and building seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving through the central Caribbean, and interacting with an upper level trough over the basin W of 72W, which is enhancing convective activity, and producing a locally tighter pressure gradient. This is supporting fresh to locally strong E-SE winds across the central Caribbean N of 14N. Fresh winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras due to the pressure gradient between the W Atlantic high pressure and broad low pressure around TS Cristina. Moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range E of 78W, and 4-6 ft W of 78W. For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and TS Cristina in the Eastern Pacific, currently offshore Nicaragua, supports fresh to strong winds with moderate to locally rough seas starting in the north-central and NW Caribbean including the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. These conditions will likely last through much of the remaining forecast period. In addition, a trough or weak low pressure center may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche perhaps later Thu through Fri night, maintaining a tight pressure gradient over the NW Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and mostly moderate seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 28N72W through the SE Bahamas to eastern Cuba. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are E of the trough axis to 62W, from 22.5N to 27.5N . High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1033 mb high centered near 35N33W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the waters E of 50W, as well as S of 20N between 50W and the Lesser Antilles. Light to gentle winds cover the waters N of 23N and W of 65W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range E of 42W, 3-4 ft N of 24N and W of 50W, and 5-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the trough through the SE Bahamas will remain nearly stationary through the early part of the week. A weak cold front will move across the N waters Tue, then move very slowly or stall on Wed, gradually dissipating by Thu. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward north of the area through the end of the week while weakening, with the associated ridge extending toward Florida and southeastern Georgia. The related pressure gradient will generally allow for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Increasing moisture resulting in unsettled weather conditions is likely to impact the far western section of the basin during the week.