Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Nov 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from 996 mb low pressure near 31N39W to 23N50W. Ahead of this front, gale- force southwesterlies are present N of 26N and E of 39W, extending to about 30W. Very rough seas of up to 20 ft extend beyond this area of gales southward to 22W and westward to 45W. This low pressure and cold front will move rapidly east, ending gales west of 35W this morning. However, very rough seas will prevail into tonight, with rough seas decaying below 8 ft Wed evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 07N35W to 08N52W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 09N east of 40W. GULF OF AMERICA... 1023 mb high pressure is centered over the lower Mississippi Valley. This is supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight seas through the basin. A surface trough extending from the mouth of the Rio Grande to just offshore Vercruz, Mexico, is inducing scattered moderate convection within 60 nm either side of its axis. For the forecast, winds will diminish further until Wed night, when a cold front will exit the Texas coast and move SE through the basin, exiting by Fri. The front will bring fresh to locally strong winds and building seas. High pressure will settle in in the wake of the front this weekend with moderate to fresh easterly winds expected. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the region and lower pressure over South America is leading to fresh to strong trades over the south central basin, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the south-central Caribbean and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate convection is noted in and near the Gulf of Honduras, where trade winds are converging. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and locally rough seas will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through Thu, with mainly moderate winds and seas elsewhere. The pressure gradient will weaken Thu night into Fri as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel, weakening the trades. Moderate to fresh NW winds and building seas are possible behind this front in the NW basin into the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning for waters N of 25N and E of 40W. In addition to the gale center listed in the Special Features section, a weak 1015 mb low pressure is centered near 27N67W. A cold front extends from 31N56W to the low pressure to the SE Bahamas. Outside the area of winds and seas described in the Special Features near the gale center, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in a mix of swell. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front and low will move east through tonight and exit the region by Wed. Another front will move off the SE U.S. coast Thu, bringing fresh to strong winds and building seas on both sides of it, that will prevail into the weekend. By early Sat, the front will extend from Bermuda to the SE Bahamas.