Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Jan 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0425 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N12W and continues to 04N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04N19W to 04N35W and to 01N50W. A few showers are noted near the monsoon trough and ITCZ. GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends from southern Louisiana to southern Texas. No significant convection is evident across the Gulf waters. Moderate winds and moderate seas are found north of 25N, while light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail south of 25N. For the forecast, fresh W winds and moderate seas over the northern Gulf waters will diminish late tonight as a cold front enters the northern Gulf and progresses over the central basin through Sun. Moderate to locally fresh N winds will prevail in the wake of the front Sun. High pressure will settle over the basin early next week, leading to moderate or weaker winds and slight seas, except for moderate to fresh S winds developing W of 95W Mon through Tue, becoming fresh to strong to the W of 90W Wed night and Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from eastern Cuba to the south-central Caribbean, supporting a few showers south of Jamaica. Weak high pressure north of the Caribbean forces moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas east of 77W. Light to gentle winds and slight to locally moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds are expected over the central and southeastern Caribbean through Sun as a subtropical ridge prevails to the north along 25N-26N. The ridge will shift eastward Sun night through Mon as a cold front moves into the western Atlantic. Fresh NE winds are forecast to develop across the Greater Antilles and through the Atlantic passages Sun night and prevail through Wed night as high pressure builds to the north, behind the new cold front. Fresh to strong NE winds will also resume off Colombia Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad subtropical ridge dominates the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures associated with a storm system off the SE United States, supports fresh to strong westerly winds and seas of 5-9 ft are found north of 28N and west of 68W. Meanhile, in the far NE Atlantic, moderate to fresh W-NW winds and rough seas are present north of 24N and east of 31W. The northerly swell is also supporting rough seas south to 18N and east of 37W. Moderate easterly winds and moderate seas are noted south of 20N and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong SW winds will continue to develop over the NW Atlantic offshore zones tonight, ahead of low pressure and frontal system moving eastward through the SE U.S. Localized gale-force wind gusts will be possible offshore of northern Florida tonight, with rough seas expected near and to the east of these winds. The associated cold front will move offshore of the SE U.S. tonight into Sun and progress eastward through early next week, supporting fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas ahead of the front, and fresh to locally strong N to NW winds and rough seas in the wake of the front. The front will reach from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas Sun evening, and gradually weaken from 30N55W to the central Bahamas by Mon evening. High pressure behind the front will build north of the region Mon through Wed.