Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Mar 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 01N25W. The ITCZ extends from 01N25W to 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is south of 04N and east of 20W. GULF OF AMERICA... A broad subtropical ridge over the eastern Gulf waters supports fresh easterly winds and moderate seas off northern Yucatan. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Dry weather conditions dominate the basin. For the forecast, high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will maintain gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas across the western Gulf, and light to gentle breezes over the eastern Gulf into late week. A trough over the Bay of Campeche will support occasional moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula mainly at night through mid-week. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure remains in place over the eastern Gulf. Recent scatterometer satellite passes confirmed fresh to strong NE winds over the northern Caribbean, south of Cuba and Hispaniola, and through the Windward Passage. Concurrent altimeter satellite passes indicated 4-7 ft seas in this area. A weak surface trough in the central Caribbean supports a few showers south of Jamaica. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, building high pressure over the western Atlantic will support fresh to locally strong NE winds south of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola into tonight. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will develop offshore Colombia Tue through Fri, mainly at night, as the high pressure moves slightly eastward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N52W to the USVI. Recent satellite scatterometer data indicates strong to near-gale force SE winds north of 25N and east of the front to 50W, and fresh to strong NW winds north of 28N and west of the front to 61W. Concurrent altimeter satellite data showed combined seas are 8 to 11 ft north of 24N between 50W and 65W. In the rest of the SW North Atlantic west of 50W, a subtropical ridge dominates sustaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. In the eastern Atlantic, a weakening 1001 mb low pressure centered west of the Canary Islands forces fresh to strong N-NW winds and rough to very rough seas north of 23N and east of 30W. N-NW swell support rough seas in the eastern Atlantic and central Atlantic trade waters. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front is forecast to move into the central Atlantic through Tue while gradually dissipating. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to enter the offshore waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight into Tue, followed by fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas. These marine conditions are forecast to affect most of the waters north of 28N into mid-week before the front lifts northward.