Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Apr 1 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1435 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and continues southwestward to 02N26W. The ITCZ extends from 06N26W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 06N and east of 27W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure over the western Atlantic extends to the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to locally fresh SE winds and moderate seas east of 90W. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are noted elsewhere. Divergence aloft is supporting numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Bay of Campeche, while generally dry conditions are found in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas are expected over the E Gulf through Sat night. Over the western half of the Gulf, moderate to fresh SE winds are forecast, except for strong E to SE winds off the northern Yucatan Peninsula at night. A cold front may enter the western Gulf Sunday with strong winds and rough seas expected in its vicinity. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that the high pressure north of the area is forcing fresh to strong NE-E winds in the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are occurring in the north-central Caribbean and north of 18N in the NW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. A few passing showers are noted across the basin, but no significant convection is present. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia through the forecast period. This pattern will also support fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through Thu night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The interaction between an upper level trough south of Bermuda and a frontal trough that extends from 27N53W to 20N58W results in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 19N to 28N and between 52W and 64W. The pressure gradient between a 1037 mb high pressure system and the aforementioned frontal trough supports fresh to locally near gale-force NE-E winds and rough seas north of 20N and between 50W and 75W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 6-10 ft are present elsewhere in the central and eastern Atlantic, except for south of 25N and east of 35W where moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. Similarly, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are noted west of 75W. For the forecast west of 55W, strong high pressure will prevail across the forecast waters through the remainder of the week into the weekend. Fresh to strong NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas, are expected across most of the offshore forecast waters through the remainder of the week. Winds will diminish this weekend with seas slowly subsiding.