Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Jul 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Recently upgraded Tropical Storm Bertha is near 28.2N 85.9W, or about 120 nm S of Panama City, Florida at 11 PM EDT, and is stationary. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Peak seas are 10 ft in the E semicircle. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted in the SW semicircle of Bertha, covering approximately from 25N to 29N between 84W and 91W. A slow west- northwestward or westward motion is expected over the next few days. On the forecast track, Bertha will move near or along the northern Gulf coast during the next several days. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Swells generated by Bertha are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Two NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near the Cabo Verde Islands with axis along 25W, from 07N to 19N, moving W at around 5-10 kt. No significant deep convection is presently occurring in association with the wave. A tropical wave is in the central Atlantic extending from 10N to 22N with axis near 43W, moving W at around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the northern wave environment from 18N to 22N between 42W and 45W. A tropical wave is in the SW Caribbean with axis near 81W south of 19N, moving W at approximately 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 17N between 77W and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N17W and continues southwestward to 09N25W to 10N35W. The ITCZ extends from 10N35W to 07N50W to 06N57W. Scattered moderate convection is from 14N to 19N E of 18W, and from 05N to 12N between 27W and 35W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Bertha in the NE Gulf. Tropical Storm Bertha is near 28.2N 85.9W at 11 PM EDT, and is stationary. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Away from the influence of Tropical Storm Bertha, weak high pressure of 1013 mb is centered near 24N92W, covering most of the western half of the Gulf and supporting moderate or weaker winds W of 90W and over the SE Gulf waters. For the forecast, Bertha will move to 28.8N 86.6W Tue morning, 29.1N 87.3W Tue evening, 29.3N 88.1W Wed morning, inland to 29.3N 89.4W Wed evening, inland to 29.3N 90.7W Thu morning, and weaken to a tropical depression near 29.3N 92.1W Thu evening. Bertha will change little in intensity as it moves near 29.3N 94.6W late Fri. Swells generated by Bertha are affecting portions of the Gulf coast of Florida and are likely to spread westward during the rest of the week. Otherwise, high pressure over the western Gulf will become less evident by midweek. After midweek, Atlantic high pressure will extend westward to the central Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the Azores-Bermuda High and relatively lower pressure over NW Colombia is resulting in mainly moderate to fresh easterly winds over most of the central, southwest and eastern Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh easterlies are also ongoing in the Gulf of Honduras. Offshore Colombia winds are locally strong and seas rough to 9 ft. Except this region, the central and SW basin have moderate seas while slight seas dominate both the E and NW Caribbean regions. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered heavy showers are ongoing over the offshores between Colombia and Panama, associated with the E extension of the E Pacific monsoon. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds with moderate to rough seas across the south-central Caribbean through Thu. During the same period, fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are expected in the Windward Passage, mainly at night. Pulsing winds reaching fresh speeds are forecast in the Gulf of Honduras through Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is located over the central Atlantic from 27N56W to 19N58W, which is generating scattered showers between 50W and 65W. Aside from the convection, recent scatterometer data show moderate to fresh NE winds W of the trough axis, between 56W and 64W. The scatterometer data also show fresh E winds over the adjacent waters of Hispaniola. The remainder subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores-Bermuda High, which is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds over the E waters E of 35W with locally strong winds and rough seas in the vicinity of the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh southerly flow is offshore central and NE Florida due to the gradient of pressure between the ridge and Tropical Storm Bertha, located in the NE Gulf of America. Seas are moderate between 20W and 67W and mainly slight W of 67W. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough will move westward reaching near 70W by Wed afternoon and to near 75W by Thu morning. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected on either side of the trough axis. Fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected offshore Hispaniola, including approaches to the Windward Passage through the forecast period. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas are forecast elsewhere E of the Bahamas through Fri, except S of 23N E of about 77W where mostly fresh trades are expected through the period.