Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Nov 17 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends just offshore Africa to 12N18W. The ITCZ stretches from 10N17W to 06N31W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm on either side of the ITCZ axis. GULF OF AMERICA... A weak 1014 mb high pressure centered in the NE Gulf continues to be the main feature in the basin, leading to light to gentle winds over most of the area, with moderate southerly winds in the W Gulf W of 94W. Seas are less than 2 ft, except 2 to 4 ft where the moderate winds are ongoing. For the forecast, high pressure building into the SE U.S. will lead to gradually increasing SE flow over the basin, with fresh winds developing by mid-week, especially in the NW Gulf, near a cold front that will stall over Texas through late week. Slight seas will build to moderate as the winds increase. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is analyzed over the NW Caribbean, extending from western Cuba to eastern Honduras. Scattered moderate convection associated with this trough is present between Cuba and the Cayman Islands. Another surface trough is in the NE Caribbean along 65W, to the N of 14N. Scattered moderate convection is noted E of this trough axis, impacting portions of the Leeward Islands. Mainly light to gentle winds prevail, with locally moderate winds within 90 nm of the south coast of Cuba, close to the aforementioned trough. Seas are 3 ft or less, except for some 3 to 5 ft seas in N swell propagating through Atlantic passages in the NE basin. For the forecast, weak pressure gradient over the area will generally maintain gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin into early Tue. The trade winds will then increase to mostly fresh speeds as western Atlantic high pressure expands southeastward toward the Greater Antilles while the Colombian low becomes evident. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front has stalled from 31N34W to 24N53W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm on either side of the front to the N of 27N. Decaying NW swell with seas to 9 ft remain behind the front N of 28N and E of 50W. Fresh to strong SW to W winds are N of 28N between 60W and 75W ahead the next cold front. Seas over this area of stronger winds are in the 8 to 12 ft range in NW swell. The Azores High dominates the remainder central and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters. A tighter pressure gradient between the ridge and Africa the front continues to support moderate to fresh N to NE winds and rough seas to 9 ft between the NW coast of Africa and the Cape Verde Islands, including the Canary Islands and adjacent waters. Moderate to fresh trade winds dominate waters S of 20N. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds, and moderate seas are ongoing elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front will enter NW waters the waters today, then weaken and stall Tue from around 30N60W to the Turks and Caicos. Strong SW winds and rough seas can be expected ahead of the front N of 29N today, with some rough seas lingering behind the front N of 28N over NE waters until the front dissipates Tue night. High pressure sinking southward over the waters for the latter half of the week should bring relatively benign conditions.