Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Wed May 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave that was previously analyzed near 31W is now analyzed near 35W/36W, from 02N to 14N. Most of the nearby convection is associated with the ITCZ as described below. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 12N16W and continues SW to 06N18W. The ITCZ extends from 06N18W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the coast of Africa between 10W and 15W. Scattered moderate convection is present S of 02N between 22W and the coast of Brazil. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak cold front extends from central Florida to just N of the Tampa Bay area into 1013 mb low pressure in the NE Gulf analyzed near 29N87W. The cold front then continues S-SW to the eastern Bay of Campeche near 19N92W. Convection is present S of the front over the Florida Peninsula as indicated by regional radar and satellite imagery. A small cluster of convection is also noted over the Gulf just ahead of the front from 25N to 26N. Fresh NW winds and 4-6 ft seas are found offshore and along the coast of Veracruz, Mexico, with mainly gentle to moderate N-NE winds elsewhere behind the front, and seas of primarily 2-4 ft. Light to gentle mainly S-SW winds and seas of 2 ft or less are prevalent ahead of the front. For the forecast, the weak cold front will stall and dissipate on Wed. Winds will be generally moderate or weaker on either side of the front. High pressure and quiescent conditions will dominate on Wed and Thu. Another weak cold front is forecast to enter the NE Gulf Thu night and dissipate over the E Gulf on Fri. SE winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the western half of the basin this weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic forces fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the south-central to southwest Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted across the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean from 11N to 18N, along with 4-7 ft seas. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent across the remainder of the waters including the majority of the western Caribbean. No significant convection is noted in the basin, except just offshore Panama near the monsoon trough extending along 09N/10N from the eastern Pacific Ocean. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong tradewinds over the central Caribbean through the weekend, with the strongest winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh tradewinds are expected across the remainder of forecast waters through Sun night, pulsing to strong in the Gulf of Honduras Sat and Sun night. Large E swell with rough seas will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters from midweek through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extending from 31N70W to central Florida with fresh to strong NE-E winds and 5-9 ft seas in N-NE swell behind/N of the front. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found across a rather large area of the SW N Atlantic offshore waters both behind and within about 240 nm ahead/SE of the front. Seas are 3-5 ft N of 19N and ahead of the front to 55W, along with gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge anchored by a 1037 mb high center located well N of the discussion waters to the NW-N of the Azores. A belt of fresh to locally strong N-NE winds extends from the coast of Africa from about 14N to 22N through the Cabo Verde Islands to much of the waters from 08N to 19N to the E of the Caribbean. Seas are mainly 6-9 ft across this area. Mainly moderate or weaker winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail across the remainder of the waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front in the SW N Atlantic offshore waters will stall Wed morning then lift north of the area by Thu morning. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected west of the front with scattered showers and thunderstorms along the front. Another weak cold front will move off the NE Florida coast on Thu, extending from 31N50W to 25N72W Fri morning, from 31N72W to 26N65W on Sat morning, then E of the area Sun. Fresh to strong S winds are expected N of 27N ahead of the front.