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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Dec 15 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0450 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale-force northwest to north winds and rough seas of 10 to 15 ft in a north swell are expected over some portions of the waters east of northern Florida tonight and into Mon morning in the wake of an arctic cold front that is moving over the waters east of central Florida along a position from near 31N74W to inland Cape Canaveral, FL. Widespread strong to near- gale force northerly winds along with rough seas in northwest to north swell are expected north and northeast of the Bahamas northward and west of a line from 31N62W to 25N75W through early on Mon. The swell will reach the islands of the northeast Caribbean late Tue night into early Wed as it merged with east swell. Seas will begin to gradually subside from NW to SE Wed through Wed night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. East Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large, long period north to northeast swell continues to affect most of the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic. Seas 12 ft or greater are currently from 10N to 25N between 24W and 46W, and from 10N to 30N east of 24W along with peak seas to 13 ft between 34W and 44W. The swell direction is from the N to NE winds at a period of 10-16 seconds. With persistent fresh to strong northeast trade winds, the area of 12 ft or greater seas will expand westward to near 50W by early Mon before they slowly subside from NE to SW going into Tue. For information east of 35W please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2. For information west of 35W, please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 08N13W, and continues southwestward to 04N24W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 03N35W to 02.5N49W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 02M to 07N, and west of 31W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An arctic cold front extends from near Tampa Bay to near La Pesca, MX as a strong high pressure builds in over the basin behind it. The very tight pressure gradient between the front and the high pressure is bringing strong to near-gale force northeast winds, with gusts to gale force north of the front per latest ASCAT pass. Seas with these winds are in the 8 to 11 ft range based on the latest Altimeter pass. The latest ASCAT satellite data shows gentle to moderate north to northeast winds elsewhere across the basin along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will continue to move south across the basin and exit the Gulf Mon night. Strong northerly winds and building seas will follow the front. High pressure will dominate the Gulf region in the wake of the front Tue through Thu. Looking ahead, the next cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Thu evening and reach from near Tampa Bay to Brownsville, Texas Fri afternoon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Atlantic high pressure has shifted eastward to the central Atlantic. As as result, the trade winds over the eastern Caribbean have diminished to moderate speeds, but continue at fresh to locally strong speeds across the south-central Caribbean waters. Gentle to moderate trade winds are over the western Caribbean. Seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail over most of the basin east of about 82W, with the exception of higher seas of 7 to 9 ft from 11N to 15N between 73W and 81W. Lower seas of 3 to 5 ft are west of 81W. Otherwise, a trough is analyzed over the northwestern Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is depicted south of 13N, and west of 77W in association to another surface trough. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds, and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean, will continue to diminish as Atlantic high pressure shifts well NE of the region. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough seas in large E swell will prevail over the tropical Atlantic waters, through the Atlantic passages and into the eastern part of the basin through Mon night. A cold front will enter the northwestern Caribbean on Mon, accompanied by increasing winds and building seas behind the front. This front is expected to reach from central Cuba to N Belize Tue morning, then will stall and gradually dissipate through Wed. High pressure will build into the W Atlantic Wed night through Thu night to bring a return to fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for more information on a Gale warning for the western Atlantic waters offshore northern Florida, and for a significant swell event in the eastern Atlantic. A cold front has moved off the coast of the southeastern United States this evening, and extends from near 31N73W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Near-gale to gale force NW winds and rough seas follow the front. A trough is analyzed from near 31N72W southwestward to western Bahamas. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is found along the trough. Another surface trough and a deep layered trough are supporting scattered moderate convection north of 23N between 62.5W and 75.5W. Gentle to moderate south to southwest winds are found along the troughs, except for moderate to fresh northwest winds north of 29N. Light and variable winds prevail near the Bahamas. Seas are 5 to 8 ft west of the troughs, except for lower seas of 2 to 5 ft near the Bahamas. A 1032 mb high pressure is near 36N38W. A tight pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure to its south is sustaining fresh to strong trade winds over the waters south of about 25N and east of 55W. Seas 8 to 13 ft prevail with these trade winds, as noted above in the Special Features section. For the forecast W of 55W, Gale-force winds are expected immediately behind the aforementioned front through early Mon. Otherwise, the front will be followed by strong to near gale-force northerly winds and quickly building seas through Mon. The front will reach from just E of Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and into the Straits of Florida by Mon morning, and then stall from 29N55W to the SE Bahamas and central Cuba by Tue morning, then slowly dissipate through Wed. Large N swell will build across the regional waters behind the front tonight through Tue before subsiding. The Bermuda High will dominate the regional waters Thu through Fri.