Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sun Mar 01 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning East of 35W: A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Canarias and Agadir Marine Zones of Meteo France until 1/00Z. An ASCAT pass from 2043Z confirmed the presence of gale-force winds near the coast of Morocco from 30N to 31N. Seas are 12 to 13 ft within these wind speeds. For more information, please see the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiches/2 Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A strong high pressure of 1034 mb located SW of the Azores near 33N36W is maintaining fresh to strong winds across much of the eastern and central Atlantic. Wind waves associated with these winds will continue to generate seas of 8 to 13 ft across most of the waters between 20W and 60W, with highest seas E of 40W. This swell event will persist through early next week while drifting southeastward. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea near 11N15W, then extends southwestward to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to the coast of Brazil near 0340W. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from the Equator to 05N between 10W and 20W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A nearly stationary front extends southwestward across central Florida to near 27N87W. A band of showers, with embedded strong thunderstorms, is just ahead of the front. High pressure located over the SE of United States extends a ridge across the western Gulf into the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate NE winds are in the wake of the front over the NE Gulf. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are noted. Seas are in general 1 to 3 ft, highest behind the front. For the forecast, the convective activity associated with the front will continue southeastward across the far SE Gulf tonight. The stationary front will transition to a weakening cold front this evening and slowly move southeastward, exiting the basin tonight. Afterward, a strong high pressure system will build west-southwestward over the area from the N Atlantic beginning on Sun night, with the related gradient generally supporting moderate to fresh east to southeast winds across the Gulf. Locally strong winds will occur at night off the northern Yucatan Peninsula Tue through Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong high pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low supports fresh to strong trade winds over the south-central Caribbean. Seas are 7 to 9 ft within these winds. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas dominate the eastern Caribbean and the north-central part of the basin with moderate seas. Gentle to locally moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas are seen over the NW Caribbean. Convection has flared-up over Cuba along the sea breeze convergence zone, and also over the Yucatan Peninsula. Shallow moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, will continue to move across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. For the forecast, a strong subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will support fresh to near gale-force easterly trades and moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean over the next several days. A tighter pressure gradient will initiate gale-force winds off Colombia at night Mon through at least late next week and support locally very rough seas. Fresh to strong trades expected elsewhere across most of the central and eastern portions of the basin well into next week. Fresh to strong northeast winds will begin in the Windward Passage starting late Mon night. Rough seas in mixed swell will prevail in the tropical N Atlantic through the forecast period, with seas to 12 ft reaching 55W Mon. Elsewhere, little change is expected, with moderate to fresh trades continuing through the period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale warning remains in effect E of 35W. Please, see the Special Features section for more information A weak cold front extends southwestward from 31N77W to central Florida near Vero Beach. A band of showers, with embedded strong thunderstorms, is just ahead of the front affecting parts of south and central Florida and the NW Bahamas. A strong high pressure of 1034 situated SW of the Azores near 33N36W extends a ridge across the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. This system is maintaining fresh to strong winds across much of the eastern and central Atlantic, particularly E of 50W, with rough seas. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas are noted on the western periphery of the ridge. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned front will slowly move southeastward, reaching from near 31N76W to the NW Bahamas and to South Florida by late tonight. Another cold front is expected to enter the northern waters early next week and gradually shift southeastward and weaken. Fresh to near gale- force easterly winds and rough to very rough seas, peaking to around 14 ft, are forecast behind the front Mon through Tue night north of 27N. High pressure will build by the middle of next week resulting in moderate to fresh winds and rough seas over much of the basin. Conditions will begin to slowly abate starting Thu.