Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Mar 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between a well established high pressure ridge over the northwestern Atlantic and low pressure over Colombia will continue to support strong to gale-force NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas across much of the central and southwestern Caribbean Sea through Friday night. Winds offshore of Colombia are expected to pulse, increasing to gale force overnight then diminishing to 25 to 30 kt during the late morning to early afternoon hours. Winds may remain just below gale force Thursday night but gales are expected to resume offshore NW Colombia on Friday night. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07.5N12W and extends to 04.5N16W. The ITCZ extends from that point to 00N30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 06N between 14W and 27W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Broad surface ridging extends from the central Atlantic westward into the Gulf. Moderate to fresh E winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail across much of the Gulf, except for the NE Gulf where winds are gentle or weaker and seas are 1-3 ft, and the FL Straits where seas are 4-6 ft. For the forecast, Atlantic high pressure will extend a broad ridge southwestward into the SE U.S. into the weekend. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail across the Gulf, pulsing to fresh to strong each night off the northern Yucatan Peninsula. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean. The pressure difference between high pressure well north of the area and the Colombia low maintains fresh to strong trades across much of the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere. Rough seas are analyzed in the central Caribbean, with moderate seas in the eastern Caribbean and seas of 3-6 ft prevailing in the NW basin. For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure will prevail N of the area into the weekend. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low will support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through Mon. Winds offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the overnight hours through Fri night while fresh to strong NE winds in the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba will pulse through Sat evening. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong winds will pulse at night from Thu through Sat. Elsewhere, rough to very rough seas in easterly trade wind swell over the tropical N Atlantic will continue through early Mon. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1039 mb high near 40N34W extends a ridge across much of the Atlantic, also supported by a 1028 mb high near 34N61W. As a result, fresh to strong trades and rough seas cover much of the Atlantic between the west coast of Africa and 60W between the Equator and 29N. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail W of 60W and S of 27N. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas will prevail S of 24N and E of the Bahamas through the weekend. Elsewhere, rough seas N of 27N and E of 65W will subside tonight. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail S of 25N through the period, reaching strong speeds N of Hispaniola into the Windward passage. Gentle to moderate winds can be expected N of 25N.