Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon Sep 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1547 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a far eastern Atlantic tropical wave has been relocated based on tropical wave diagnostics and satellite imagery. The wave is near 34.4W, south of 19N. Isolated showers are depicted from 04.5N to 07.5N between 34W and 38W. The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 47W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 46W and 50W. The axis of a central Caribbean tropical wave has been relocated based on tropical wave diagnostics and satellite imagery. The wave axis is near 70W, south of 19N. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 12.5N to 17N between 68W and 72W. More information about the western Caribbean tropical wave can be found in the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (TWDEP). ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16W, and continues southwestward to 07N43W. The ITCZ extends from 07N43W to 08N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 38.5W and 43W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A deep layered trough is supporting scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms north of 27N between 86W and 91W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are depicted across the basin. A surface trough has moved off the Yucatan peninsula into the SW Gulf. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the trough. A weak 1013 mb high is centered near 24N87.5W, producing a weak pressure gradient. Outside of convection, this weather pattern is supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas across the basin. For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist across the Gulf basin through the period, producing a weak pressure gradient. This will support mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas over much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The western Atlantic ridge extends E to W along about 26N to the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong trades and moderate seas over the south-central Caribbean. Mainly moderate E winds, and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the Caribbean waters, except for the NW part of the basin where light to gentle winds prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will begin to tighten today, leading to an increase in areal coverage of strong winds, locally to near-gale force, through midweek. Rough seas will develop over these waters with the persistent strong winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Large easterly swell will accompany a tropical wave into the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Wed through Thu morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is along 31N west of 68W. Ahead of this frontal boundary, scattered moderate convection prevails north of a line from 23N78W to 31N60W. An upper level trough north of Puerto Rico and the Hispaniola is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms from 18.5N to 23.5N between 62W and 70.5W. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 26N53W. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh winds, and 6-8 ft seas, N of 20N between 52W and 70W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. A stronger high center, 1029 mb, is centered near 35N23W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the monsoon trough is supporting fresh to strong winds N of the monsoon trough and east of 27W. These winds are generating rough seas over these waters. Light to gentle winds, and slight seas, cover the waters W of 70W. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, weak high pressure extending from the central Atlantic westward along about 26N to the NW Bahamas will gradually shift northeastward and strengthen early this week. This pattern will maintain a weak pressure gradient across the regional waters, and support moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas through Tue. A weak cold front will stall near 31N through mid week before lifting northward. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active across these northern waters W of 60W through Tue.