Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Mar 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: A gale warning is in effect, issued by Meteo-France, for the high seas zones of Irving, west of Madeira, and Meteor until 20/00 UTC at least, with severe gusts. Please refer to the next Special Feature for details on associated large swells. Please refer to the high seas forecast issued by Meteo-France on the website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details. East Atlantic Long-period N Swell: Large, long-period north swell generated by a large fetch of gale to storm-force winds in the northeast Atlantic will continue to propagate southward of 31N through the weekend. Expect seas of 12-24 ft through Sat mainly N of the Cape Verde Islands and east of 43W. Seas across these northeastern waters will then gradually reduce in areal coverage and subside below 12 ft near the Canary Islands on Mon. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N14W, then curves southwestward to 03N17W. The ITCZ continues from 03N17W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed south of 05N and west of 11W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1025 mb high pressure system near the mouth of the Mississippi River dominates the Gulf of America. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures associated with a stationary front east of the area results in moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas in the eastern Gulf, east of 90W, and eastern Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across the Gulf region and a frontal boundary over the Caribbean Sea will support moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate to rough seas over the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida through Fri. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected across the eastern Bay of Campeche at night through Sat night. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from central Cuba near 22N80W to the Bay Islands in the Gulf of Honduras. A surface trough is analyzed from 11N78W to Cayman Brac near 20N80W. Low level convergence induced by both the front and the pre-frontal trough continue to support scattered showers near these boundaries. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds with seas of 5 to 9 ft prevail N of the front. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring east of 78W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds and rough seas will continue to follow the aforementioned front through Fri night as it transitions to a cold front Thu before dissipating offshore Nicaragua late Fri. Afterward, moderate to fresh NE winds will remain in the western Caribbean, including the lee side of Cuba and the Windward Passage as high pressure develops across the northern Bahamas in the wake of the front. As the ridge shifts slightly eastward, fresh to strong winds will develop offshore Colombia Sun through Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section for details on an east Atlantic Gale Warning issued by Meteo-France, and associated large northerly swells. A stationary front extends from 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and central Cuba. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 31N66W to the SE Bahamas. Heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident east of the front to 65W. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas are noted west of the front. The strongest winds are occurring off SE Florida and the NW Bahamas. An extensive 1036 mb high pressure system centered near 37N45W dominates the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Fresh to near gale-force winds are found north of 22N and east of 40W to the coast of Africa associated with the storm force system discussed in the Special Features section. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas under a relatively tight pressure gradient are present between 60W and 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will remain nearly stationary west of Bermuda to the central Bahamas on Thu, then it will transition to a cold front as a low pressure attached to the front moves quickly NE and N of the forecast through Sat night. High pressure over the SE CONUS and over the north-central Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong winds and rough seas on either side of front and across the offshore forecast waters N of 25N through the weekend. A new cold front is forecast to enter the NE Florida offshore waters Mon night into Tue, which will bring strong and very rough seas to the area.