Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Sep 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Atlantic. Its axis is along 27N, south of 20N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 05N to 07N between 26.5W and 29W. A tropical wave is along 53.5W, south of 20N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the northern end of the wave axis and mainly from 15N to 19N between 47W and 56W. A tropical wave is moving across the eastern Caribbean. Its axis is along 69W, south of 19N, moving west at around 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16.5N16.5W and continues southwestward to 05N41W. The ITCZ extends from 05N41W to 09N57W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 4N to 19N and east of 23W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An upper level trough is supporting scattered moderate convection over the central and NE Gulf. A ridge dominates most of the Gulf region supporting gentle to moderate winds. Seas are generally 1 to 3 ft. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the waters through early next week. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the Colombian low is maintaining fresh trades and 5 to 7 ft seas offshore Colombia and western Venezuela. Mainly moderate E winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the basin, except the NW Caribbean where gentle winds and slight seas are present. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over portions of central America. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trades along with moderate seas over the central Caribbean. Winds over these waters will briefly diminish this weekend, but increase to fresh to strong speeds early next week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered to numerous moderate convection prevails north of 27N and west of 77W in association to a mid level trough. A weak low pressure of 1016 mb is located near 33N57W. A surface trough extends from the low center to near 29N64W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near these features. A 1019 mb high pressure remains over the western Atlantic and is centered near 30N71W. Its associated ridge reaches the Bahamas. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are seen over the waters west of 74W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is under the influence of a ridge, with the main high pressure center of 1023 mb located SE of the Azores. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas prevail across much of the Atlantic S of 25N and away from any convection or tropical waves. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will prevail across the area through early next week, generating a weak pressure pattern. This will support moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas across the area.