Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Dec 7 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1025 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to move across the Gulf tonight into Mon, followed by fresh to strong northwest to north winds and building seas. Gale-force northwest to north winds are expected off Veracruz Mon evening along with seas peaking to around 11 ft (3.5 m). Winds and seas will diminish Tue into Wed as the front becomes stationary from the Straits of Florida to the Yucatan Channel while high pressure settles across the central Gulf. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at the website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 07N12W, and continues southwestward to 03N23W. The ITCZ extends from 03N23W to 04N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 07N and east of 39W. GULF OF AMERICA Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on upcoming gale conditions expected off Veracruz, Mexico. A weak stationary front extends from near Siesta Key, Florida to the NW Gulf waters and a few showers are noted north of the boundary. Generally drier conditions are seen elsewhere. Moderate or lighter winds and seas of 2-4 ft prevail across the basin. For the forecast, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail across the basin and will persist through this evening as the front weakens and drifts northward. A cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf tonight and overtake the current front, while sweeping across the basin into early next week. This will lead to fresh to strong N to NW winds and building seas in the wake of the front. Gale-force NW to N winds are forecast off Veracruz Mon evening. Winds and seas will diminish Tue into Wed as the front stalls across the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida, and high pressure settles across the central Gulf. Light to gentle winds and slight seas will persist late Wed through the end of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak surface trough along 85W continues to produce scattered showers west of 82W and south of 20N. Similar convection is noted off NW Colombia, while pockets of low-level moisture generate isolated showers in the eastern and central Caribbean. High pressure north of the area result in fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 6-8 ft in the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, broad high pressure north of the islands will support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas over the central and eastern Caribbean through at least the middle of next week. Strong winds off NW Colombia, along with locally rough seas, will diminish this morning. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. A persistent E-NE swell will support rough seas across the Atlantic waters and passages of the Lesser Antilles through next Thu. Looking ahead, a weakening cold front will approach the northwestern Caribbean on Tue and linger across the Yucatan Channel and Straits of Florida through Wed. High pressure will build across the eastern Gulf of America by the middle of next week, leading to strong winds and rough seas in the south-entral Caribbean into late next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from near Bermuda to central Florida. Moderate to locally strong winds and moderate to rough seas are occurring north of 28N and east of 55W. Meanwhile, a subtropical ridge extends from Africa to the Bahamas along 25N. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted south of 23N and west of 60W. Farther east, a surface trough extends from 31N37W to 26N52W and moderate to locally strong winds and rough seas are present north of 26N and between 25N and 60W. South of 21N and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 6-9 ft are prevalent. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front extends from near Bermuda to near Stuart, Florida. Fresh to locally strong winds and moderate to rough seas are noted ahead of and behind the front. These winds and seas will shift quickly eastward today with the front. The weak front is expected to dissipate later today. Looking ahead, a complex low pressure system and strong cold front will into the northwestern tropical Atlantic tonight and Mon, supporting widespread fresh to near gale-force winds and building seas ahead of and behind the front Mon through Tue. The cold front will reach from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and Straits of Florida Tue morning, then gradually weaken and stall along about 26N early Wed. Large N swell will move into the regional waters Tue through Wed then diminish Wed night.