Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Feb 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Large Western Atlantic Northwest Swell: A large set of NW swell has been generated by a deep low pressure area (previously a hurricane force low, and now a storm force low) over the NW Atlantic. This NW swell is propagating across the NW discussion waters, with very rough seas of 12-15 ft over the waters W of a line from 31N66W to 28N73W. These very rough seas will shift eastward over the waters N of 26N, reaching as far east as 46W through midweek before subsiding below 12 ft. Large Central Atlantic Northwest Swell: A large set of NW swell, generated by a former storm force low N of the area (currently a gale force low) is bringing very rough seas of 12-16 ft over the waters N of a line from 30N48W to 28N44W to 30N36W. These very rough seas will shift SE through midweek to cover the waters N of 20N and E of 30W before subsiding below 12 ft Thu. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa near 10N14W and extends southwestward to 03.5N19W. The ITCZ extends from 03.5N19W to 02N22W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 03N between 24W and 36W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure is building across the discussion waters. Fresh to strong winds prevail over much of the Gulf, except moderate winds over the NW Gulf. Seas are in the 8-12 ft range over much of the waters, except for 4-6 ft over the far northern Gulf. For the forecast, strong high pressure building into the region from Texas and NE Mexico is driving fresh to strong N winds across most of the Gulf today. Winds and seas will gradually subside from NW to SE tonight into Tue as the high pressure shifts SE overhead. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop across the NW Gulf Tue night and expand across the SW and central Gulf Wed into Thu, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Thu evening. This next front is expected to stall from the Florida Panhandle to the Mexican coastal waters late Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 7-11 ft prevail west of the front. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds prevail, except locally fresh winds off the coast of Colombia. Seas are in the 4-7 ft. For the forecast, the front will slide eastward through Tue, reaching Hispaniola before stalling into Wed. The strong winds and rough seas will gradually dissipate Tue as the front weakens. Broad high pressure will develop across the central and western Atlantic Thu and Fri and bring a return to fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about Significant Swells in the western and central Atlantic. A strong cold front extends from just E of Bermuda through the SE Bahamas to eastern Cuba. Strong to near- gale NW winds and very rough seas are N of 25N and W of the front. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate to rough seas are elsewhere W of the front. Fresh to strong winds, and rough seas are N of 26N and E of the front to 55W. Farther east, a 1022 mb high is centered near 27N45W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Moderate to fresh winds prevail S of the high center due to the pressure gradient between this high and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Moderate to rough seas are elsewhere across the discussion waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the front is expected to reach from 31N61W to the Dominican Republic Tue morning, while weakening. The front will then stall from near 31N53WW to just N of the Mon Passage early Wed, then drift W and dissipate through Thu. High pressure will shift into the Atlantic behind the front Tue night through Wed, and develop a broad ridge across the region Thu and Fri.