Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Apr 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues south-southwestward to 01N23W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak pressure gradient prevails across the basin, while a trough extends across the Bay of Campeche. The pressure gradient between these two features is allowing for moderate to fresh east winds west of 90W along with 3 to 6 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds are east of 90W along with seas of 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support moderate to fresh southeast winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin through Wed morning. Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will pulse fresh to strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, then at mostly fresh speeds through Fri night. A weak cold front will brush the northern portion of the NE Gulf Thu through early Fri. A strong cold front will emerge off the Texas coast late Fri night, then reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late on Sat. This front will be followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds, with near gale winds possible over the west-central and SW Gulf sections. Seas are forecast to build to 12 ft with these winds Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Broad upper-level troughing, as seen in water vapor imagery, is supporting scattered showers across the eastern Caribbean. A weak pressure pattern across the basin is keeping moderate to fresh trades south of 15N and east of 75W, as well as in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds are mainly light to gentle across the remainder of the basin. Slight seas prevail between 68W and 85W, and moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, pressure gradient will continue to support moderate to fresh wind speeds over the eastern and central Caribbean through Thu, reaching locally strong at times. In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected through Fri, then increasing to fresh to strong speeds through Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is analyzed from 31N64W to 27N78W. A pre-frontal trough extends from 31N59W to 26N65W. Fresh northeast to east winds are northwest of the front along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Latest scatterometer data indicates moderate to fresh southeast to south winds east of the pre-frontal trough north of 25N and east to 50W. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted east of the frontal boundary and trough to near 58W and north of 27N. Farther east, a 1015 mb low is near 30N29W, with a cold front extending from the low to 22N42W, where a trough continues to 24N53W. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere. Gentle to moderate northwest winds are west of the front to near 38W. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front extending from SE of Bermuda to just east of the northern Bahamas will reach from near 31N58W to 25N63W and weakening to near 24N71W by early this evening, then move E of 55W on Wed. Another cold front is expected to move offshore northeast Florida on Thu, and weaken as it moves across the northern portions of the area through Fri afternoon before passing E of 55W on Sat.