Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Nov 16 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 07N15W to 04N32W to 04N47W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 09N between 14W and 31W. GULF OF AMERICA... Weak high pressure of 1016 mb is centered near 28N85W. A surface trough extends along 92W from 22N to 97W. No convection is present in the basin. Winds are mainly light and variable, although gentle to moderate west winds are occurring north of the high center offshore Florida, and gentle to moderate southerly winds are ongoing W of 95W. Seas are 3 ft or less, highest offshore Texas and northeast Mexico. For the forecast, gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds will dominate the basin as high pressure remains centered in the eastern Gulf through Mon. High pressure will then become oriented more over the southeastern U.S., causing winds to become more southeasterly in the Gulf, and gradually increase by mid-week. Wed night and Thu, fresh to locally strong southerly winds are likely in the NW Gulf, along with moderate to locally rough seas. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection is present S of 11N in the SW Caribbean in association with the eastern extension of the Pacific monsoon trough. No convection is associated with a weak surface trough in the NW basin extending from 17N84W to 21N82W. Troughing over the western Atlantic has disrupted the normal tradewind regime over the basin leading to widespread light to gentle winds. Locally moderate winds are present offshore Colombia and in and SW of the Windward Passage. Seas are 2 to 4 ft, with some 5 ft seas present offshore Colombia. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient over the basin will result in mainly gentle to moderate trade winds for the first half of the week. As high pressure builds southward toward the region, and the Colombian low re-establishes, trades will increase late this week. Moderate long period NE swell will propagate through waters E of the Lesser Antilles as well as Caribbean passages into Mon. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from 31N49W to Dominican Republic. Scattered moderate convection is present about 120 nm E of the front, N of 25N. Also ahead of this front, extending E to 35W, moderate to fresh SW winds are present. Little significant convection is noted with a pair of modest 1010 mb low pressure centers near 13N49W and 12N42W, respectively, but a cluster of thunderstorms has formed to their east from 12N to 15N between 32W and 40W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1021 mb center near 27N27W. This high, and a weaker 1015 mb center just NE of The Bahamas, is leading to widespread mainly gentle winds and moderate seas, although S of 21N, moderate to fresh trades dominate. Ahead of a low pressure and cold front in the eastern U.S. fresh to strong SW winds are increasing N of 30N, W about 75W. N swell generated by North Atlantic gales is propagating southward of 31N, leading to rough seas N of 28N between 35W and 60W. Also, decaying N swell is leading to areas of rough seas E of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will stall today over the SE waters, then dissipate tonight into Mon. Fresh to strong SW to W winds and rough seas will impact waters N of 29N today, ahead of a cold front that will move into the area Mon. Winds and seas will diminish behind the front, which is forecast to stall into mid-week from around 31N55W to the SE Bahamas.