Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Aug 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a 1025 mb Bermuda High and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin through next week. Winds tonight have pulsed to minimal gale-force offshore of Colombia and inside the Gulf of Venezuela. The associated ridge N of the region will gradually shift southward to along 28N through Tue to maintain strong to near gale-force winds across the south central Caribbean. Winds will diminish to below gale-force around sunrise this morning and then increase again to gale-force tonight. Seas will build into the 12-13 ft range during the time of the gale-force winds. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic tropical wave is moving away from the Cabo Verde Islands, with axis along 28W from 06N to 19N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 08.5N TO 12.5N between 27W and 31W. An Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed near 47W, and extends from 05N to 19N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 41W and 47W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 59W-60W, approaching the Lesser Antilles, extending from 05N to 20N, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11.5N between 54W and 60W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16.5W and continues westward to near 10N44.5W. The ITCZ extends from 10N48W to 09.5N58W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06.5N to 12N E of 24W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1024 mb high is located just NW of Bermuda and extends a western Atlantic ridge westward along 33N and across the Carolinas. A surface trough has moved westward across Florida, and extends from the extreme SW Gulf to near Jacksonville, with the ridge drapped across it over the northeast Gulf. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 1-3 ft seas across the basin, except for moderate NE winds across the eastern Bay of Campeche. Widely scattered showers are across the coastal waters of SW Florida, and dot the waters elsewhere W of 88W. For the forecast, the surface ridge will dominate most of the Gulf basin through late Tue. This will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds north of 24N with slight seas. Pulses of fresh winds will occur north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night as a surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the waters N of Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela. The pressure gradient between a 1024 mb high pressure located NW of Bermuda near 33N67W and the Colombian low continues to support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean S of 16N and between 68W and 80W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft across much of this area except 10 to 13 ft in the gale winds offshore of Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades are over the E Caribbean while gentle to moderate E winds are observed elsewhere. Seas are moderate with these winds. Scattered moderate convection extends from Haiti northwestward to 80W and offshore of central Cuba. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades in the south-central and portions of the SW basin through next week, with gale- force winds occurring early this morning and again Saturday night offshore of Colombia. The ridge N of the region will gradually shift southward to along 28N through Tue and maintain near gale- force winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night. Winds will pulse fresh to locally strong during the evenings and night in the Gulf of Honduras and Windward Passage through the forecast period. Otherwise, mainly moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over the Atlantic waters north of the Bahamas and W of 76W, following a low level trough currently moving across the Florida peninsula and into the eastern Gulf of America. Broad ridging centered on a 1024 mb high just NW of Bemuda dominates the Atlantic north of 24N and west of 50W, supporting gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 4-6 ft W of 50W. A central Atlantic cold front extends southwestward to near 33N50W and weakens the ridge across the central basin. An Azores High dominates the basin est of 40W, producing fresh to strong NE winds near the Canary Islands, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Saharan air and dust covers much of the Atlantic north of 12N and east of 55W. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough moving across Florida will shift NW and further inland today. Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring E of the trough to 77W will shift northwestward behind the trough today, then persist N of 30N through Sun. Otherwise, a 1024 mb Bermuda High will shift slightly southward to along 28N through Tue. Fresh E winds will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward Passage through the period, pulsing to strong speeds each evening and night.