Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Dec 2 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Seas: A large area of fresh to strong E winds extends across the central Atlantic from 17N to 30N, E of 60W. These conditions are being generated by the pressure gradient between a 1035 mb Azores high, lower pressure along the Atlantic ITCZ, and a robust surface trough that extends along 60W from 18N to 25N. Easterly wind-waves are combining with fading NW swell across this zone to produce seas of 8 to 13 ft. The highest seas are occurring within the zone of strongest winds in a corridor near the apex of the trough, from 20N to 26N between 48W and 58W. The trough will continue to move W and pass north of the Leeward Islands through Tue. As it does, winds where the highest swell exists will diminish and seas will fall below 12 ft Tue. Winds will be moderate to fresh by Wed, but 8-10 ft seas will persist across tropical Atlantic waters east of 60W through late week. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 13N17W and continues to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 05N40W to 07N55W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 10N and east of 48W. GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends from near Tampa Bay to 27N90W to a developing low pressure just offshore Corpus Christi Bay. A cold front then continues southward from the low to just south of Cabo Rojo, Mexico. Fresh winds, moderate seas, and scattered moderate convection is noted north of the frontal boundary, with locally strong E winds offshore Florida. A well-defined but weak low pressure near 26N90W is no long producing any convection, and only has moderate or weaker cyclonic winds associated with it. In the eastern basin, a surface trough extends SE from near 26N88W to the Florida Straits. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 60 nm NE of this boundary. Winds across the remainder of the basin are mainly light to gentle, with slight seas. For the forecast, the developing low pressure offshore Texas will move quickly northeastward tonight, resulting in fresh to strong N winds and locally rough seas behind the associated frontal boundary. Winds and seas will diminish late Tue. Thereafter, the front will move southeastward farther into the basin, but then stall over the south-central Gulf by Wed, as another low forms over South Texas and the NW Gulf. Looking ahead, another cold front will enter the NW waters late Thu, reaching from SE Louisiana to near Poza Rica, Mexico Fri morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Atlantic ridging partially extends toward the Caribbean, creating a pressure gradient inducing moderate to fresh trades across most of the basin. In the NW Caribbean, gentle to moderate E wind dominates. Convection is confined to along and S of 10N where the extension of the east Pacific monsoon trough is generating scattered thunderstorms off Panama. Seas are generally moderate, with slight seas in the NW basin. For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the Caribbean Sea will support moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the basin through the forecast period. Winds and seas will lessen a bit on Tue into Wed as the high pressure departs eastward, but another ridge will build in soon thereafter. A broad surface trough is approaching the eastern Caribbean and will continue westward over the next few days. Moderate to locally rough seas, in NE swell, will persist across the NE Caribbean passages through the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on Significant Seas in the Central Atlantic. A stationary front extends from 30N79W to near Melbourne, Florida. Scattered moderate convection, fresh NE winds, and moderate seas are behind this boundary offshore NE Florida. Weak low pressure has formed along a pre-frontal trough near 30N77W. Another trough extends from S of Bermuda to just NE of the Turks and Caicos. Scattered moderate convection associated with yet another trough, that is described in detail in the Special Features section, from 22N to 26N between 53W and 63W. Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front off Florida will lift north as a warm front tonight. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas across the area north of 28N and west of 74W into Tue as low pressure moves from the northern Gulf of America to the Carolinas. The associated cold front will reach the waters off the northeast Florida coast late on Tue, extending from near Bermuda to South Florida on Wed, and from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Thu. Meanwhile, fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas follow a surface trough currently located near 61W. The trough will continue to move westward, passing just N of Puerto Rico on Tue, and N of Hispaniola Wed and Thu. Winds and seas in the wake of the trough will gradually diminish over the next couple of days.