Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Apr 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1652 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 07.5N13W and continues south-southwestward to 00N33W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 02S43W. Numerous scattered moderate convection is depicted from 01N to 07N and west of 16W. Isolated moderate convection is found along both the monsoon trough and the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Relatively weak high pressure is over the western Atlantic and the associated reach extends to the central Gulf. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and low pressure in central Mexico is allowing for moderate to fresh southeast winds over most of the western Gulf. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over the western Gulf. Light to gentle southeast to south winds are elsewhere across the basin along with seas of 2 to 4 ft. Areas of smoke due to agricultural and forest fires in southern Mexico are limiting visibility to 3 to 5 miles over the far western Gulf and along the coast in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will generally maintain gentle to moderate southeast to south winds across the basin, except for light to gentle variable winds over the NE Gulf through Fri. Moderate seas will be over the western Gulf while mostly slight seas will be elsewhere through Fri. A diurnal trough will pulse fresh to strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings and at night through Fri. A weak cold front will move into the far northern Gulf Thu and stall Thu night into Fri. A strong late-season cold front will emerge off the Texas coast late Fri night. The front will reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late on Sat, and from central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Sun. The front will be followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds, with winds reaching gale-force offshore Tampico and Veracruz on Sat. Seas are forecast to build to around 12 ft, but possibly higher over waters affected by the gale conditions before subsiding Sun and Sun night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong, are expected to precede the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The interaction between high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is sustaining fresh to locally strong trades off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds remain elsewhere across the basin along seas of 2 to 5 ft. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean through Sun, reaching locally strong at times. In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected through Fri, then increasing to fresh to strong speeds through Sat night and diminishing on Sun. A weakening cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel Sun and Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N55W to near 25N69W. A warm front extends from 31N49W to 26N49W. Moderate to fresh NW winds and 6 to 10 ft seas in N swell follow the front. Recent scatterometer data confirmed the presence of moderate to fresh SW to S winds near the warm front. Seas within these winds are 5 to 8 ft. An upper level trough to the east of the fronts is supporting scattered showers north of 24N and between 37W and 47W. Gentle to moderate breezes and 3 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere west of 55W. Farther east, a front reaches from east of the eastern Azores to 31N24W to 20.5N40W. Moderate NW winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in NW swell follow these front. Elsewhere, mainly moderate E trade winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are noted south of 19N, and light to gentle breezes with 4 to 6 ft seas noted north of 19N. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N55W to near 25N69W will shift E of 55W late this afternoon. Another cold front will move offshore northeast Florida on Thu, and weaken as it moves across the northern portions of the area through Fri afternoon before it shifts E of 55W Sat evening. A third cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast on Sat, and reach from near 31N74W to near Vero Beach, Florida early on Sun and stall into Sun night. Low pressure is expected to move along the front at that time.