Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Apr 09 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a slow-moving cold front that extends from near Bermuda to weak low pressure of 1015 mb near 30N69W, and from the low to 25N74W and strong high pressure of 1037 mb centered well north of the area just east of the New England coast is continuing to allow for gale-force winds along with rough to very rough seas peaking up to around 18 ft (5 m) over the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas and east to a line from near 31N67W to 28N71W to 27N77W. These wind and seas conditions will diminish through Fri, with seas lowering to below 12 ft (4 m) as the front slowly moves eastward and weakens. East Atlantic Large Swell: Long-period north swell at 13-15 seconds continues propagating southward across portions of the far eastern Atlantic leading to seas of 11 to 13 ft east of about 40W. Rough seas cover a much expansive area north of 08N and east of 55W. This swell event will decay slowly, and seas of 12 ft or greater will reach as far south as 15N early today. Seas are expected to lower below 12 ft late Thu night, although rough seas will likely persist into the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both the Western Atlantic Gale Warning and the significant swell event in the East Atlantic. Gale Warning E of 35W: A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Meteo-France marine zone of Madeira through 09/06Z. Along with the gale winds, very rough seas in northwest to north swell are also reaching the islands. For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends southwestward to 03N22W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 01S30W and to near the coast of Brazil at 02S43W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 38W-43.5W and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 33W and 36W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 04N between 18W-24W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak trough, previously the old stationary frontal boundary, extends across the Straits of Florida to the far south-central Gulf near 23N88.5W. Scattered to locally broken low and isolated showers are near the trough. Scattered moderate convection is confined to the southwest Gulf south of 22N west 95W to inland Mexico, and over the far west-central Gulf from 24N to 25.5N west of 96W. Latest Ascat satellite data show fresh to strong northeast winds over the eastern Gulf where a tight pressure gradient exists between strong high pressure over the northeast U.S. and the troughing over the southeastern Gulf. Rough seas are being produced by these winds. Light to gentle northeast to east winds and mostly moderate seas are noted elsewhere, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh east winds offshore Louisiana to near 27N. For the forecast, the aforementioned trough will drift slowly eastward and out of the basin today. High pressure building over the eastern U.S. will support strong northeast winds and rough seas across the northeast Gulf through tonight. This pattern will maintain moderate to fresh east to southeast winds and moderate seas across the basin, except for occasional strong east winds off western Cuba through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms aided by a mid-level shortwave trough are noted north of 20N and between 81W and just east of the northeast part of the Yucatan Peninsula. This activity also extends northeastward to inland west-central Cuba. Low-topped trade wind isolated showers are noted elsewhere. Winds are strongest, up to 25 kt, over the usual locations, the south- central portion of the area off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela, where the pressure gradient is tight between low pressure over Colombia and strong high pressure that is just offshore New England. These winds are resulting in seas of up to around 8 ft over these waters. Latest Ascat satellite data indicates mostly light and variable winds over the western part of the basin. For the forecast, strong high pressure building southward from the western Atlantic will tighten the pressure gradient and increase winds over the basin, leading to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean through the weekend. By early next week, fresh to strong northeast winds along with building seas will materialize south of Cuba and in the Windward Passage. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the portions of the western Atlantic. Meteo-France also has a Gale Warning in effect for the forecast zone of Madeira. Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on these hazardous weather events. The remainder of the basin is dominated by strong surface high pressure of 1039 mb centered to the southwest of the Azores near 37N36W. Its associated broad ridging reaches southward encompassing the area north of about 10N and between 16W and 68W. The related anticyclonic wind flow is transporting patches of low-level moisture in the form broken to scattered low-level clouds westward to near 55W. Isolated showers are possible with these clouds. Mostly moderate to fresh winds are evident in the basin, except for a swath of fresh northeast winds over the far eastern part of the basin north of about 15N and east 30W, where significant northerly swell is leading to very rough seas. Details on the swell and its forecast propagation can be found in the Special Features section above. Moderate seas dominate the remainder of the Atlantic basin. A gale low located northeast of the Madeira Islands near 34N13W with a pressure of 1009 mb is forecast to move south- southeastward toward the far northeast part of the discussion area this morning. Scattered showers, under cold-air instability, are presently occurring over the SE semicircle of the low reaching to near 31N between 12W and 15W. For the forecast west of 55W, please refer to the Special Features Western Atlantic Gale Warning section for forecast details related to the marine conditions related to the slow moving cold front mentioned in that section.