Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Mar 1 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0925 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: A broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will support strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean during the next several days. A tighter pressure gradient will initiate gale-force winds off Colombia at night starting Mon and continue through at least next weekend. Locally very rough seas are expected with these winds. Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A strong high pressure of 1033 mb located SW of the Azores near 33N38W is maintaining fresh to strong winds across much of the eastern and central Atlantic. Wind waves associated with these winds will continue to generate seas of 8 to 14 ft across most of the waters between 20W and 60W, with highest seas E of 50W. This swell event will persist through early next week. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 04N18W. The ITCZ extends from 04N18W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is observed south of 08N and between Africa and 44W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak stationary front extends across the SE Gulf waters, producing a few showers ahead of this boundary. The weak pressure gradient across the basin supports moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, the storm activity will continue southeastward across the far SE Gulf this morning. The stationary front will transition to a weakening cold front this morning, slowly move southeastward and exit the basin. Afterward, a strong high pressure system will build west- southwestward over the area from the N Atlantic beginning tonight, with the related gradient generally supporting moderate to fresh east to southeast winds across the Gulf. Locally strong winds will occur at night off the northern Yucatan Peninsula starting Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad high pressure over the central Atlantic extends into the Caribbean Sea, supporting strong to near gale-force easterly winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. Fresh to strong easterly breezes and rough seas are found in the SE Caribbean. Rough seas are noted in the Atlantic passages of the Lesser Antilles. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are evident in the rest of the central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will support fresh to near gale-force easterly trades and moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast period. A tighter pressure gradient will initiate gale- force winds off Colombia at night Mon through at least late this week and support locally very rough seas. Fresh to strong northeast winds will begin in the Windward Passage starting late Mon night. Rough seas in mixed swell will prevail in the tropical N Atlantic through the forecast period, with seas to 12 ft reaching 55W Mon. Elsewhere, little change is expected, with moderate to fresh trades continuing through the period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends southwestward from 31N74W to SE Florida. A band of showers with embedded strong thunderstorms is ahead of the front between 67W-78W. A strong high pressure of 1033 mb situated SW of the Azores near 33N38W extends a ridge across the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters. This system is maintaining fresh to strong winds across much of the eastern and central Atlantic, particularly E of 60W, with rough seas. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas are noted on the western periphery of the ridge. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will slowly move southeastward reaching from near 31N69W to the central Bahamas tonight and from 31N62W to the SE Bahamas Mon morning as it weakens. Elsewhere, high pressure over the central Atlantic continues to maintain control over much of the western Atlantic while rough seas prevail over the SE waters. Another cold front is expected to enter the northern waters early this week and gradually shift southeastward and weaken. Fresh to near gale- force easterly winds and rough to very rough seas, peaking to around 13 ft, are forecast behind the front Mon through Tue night north of 27N. High pressure will build by the middle of next week resulting in moderate to fresh winds and rough seas over much of the basin.