Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Apr 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1535 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gale Warning E of 35W: The tight pressure gradient between a strong ridge over the Azores and lower pressures in northwest Africa results in strong to gale-force N-NE winds and rough to very rough seas off Morocco. Meteo-France has issued Gale Warnings for the marine zones of Agadir and Tarfaya through 13/12Z. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast product, listed on the website at https://wwmiws.wmo.int. for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 05N17W. The ITCZ extends from 05N17W to 00N28W and to 03S44W. Scattered moderate convection is present south of 05N and west of 20W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1034 mb high pressure system over New England extends southward into the Gulf of America, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across much of the basin. Generally dry conditions are occurring over the Gulf waters. For the forecast, high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds and mostly moderate seas through Thu, with stronger winds pulsing across the Florida Straits and off the Yucatan Peninsula. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The tight pressure gradient between the strong ridge north of the Caribbean and lower pressures in NW South America results in fresh to strong NE-E winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas are found in the NW Caribbean and Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. No significant weather are occurring in the basin. For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong east winds and rough seas over the south-central portion of the basin and near Colombia through the early part of the week. Fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas will prevail south of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through most of the upcoming week. Winds and seas will diminish late in the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning off Morocco. A cold front enters the basin near 31N57W and continues southwestward to a 1016 mb low pres near 27N62W, then a stationary front follows to northern Hispaniola. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are present near these boundaries. A tight pressure gradient between the strong ridge over NE England and the aforementioned fronts sustains fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas across much of the waters behind these boundaries. The remainder of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge near the Azores. Fresh to strong NE-E winds and rough seas are observed north of 10N and east of 40W. The strongest winds and highest seas are found in the far NE Atlantic. Please see the Special Features section for more details. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 7-9 ft are noted south of 20N and west of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will dissipate through the early part of the week. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas persist west of the front mainly south of 27N through mid week.