Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Apr 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A stationary front extends southwestward from north of Bermuda across 31N74W and central Florida to a low at the east-central Gulf of America. Near-gale to gale-force NE to ENE winds are found behind this front off northeastern Florida to near 78W. Seas near these winds range from 10 to 12 ft. As the low starts tracking east-northeastward tonight through Wednesday, it will cause the front to sink southward and spread near-gale to strong gale-force winds to off central Florida, and also eastward to near 70W. Seas are expected to peak at 14 to 18 ft under the strongest winds. As the low begins to weaken Wed evening, both winds and seas should gradually subside Wed night through Thu night. East Atlantic Large Swell: Large N swell behind a cold front is creating seas at 11 to 13 ft north of 25N and east of 40W. These very rough seas are going to shift southward through Thursday morning to as far south as 20N. By late Thursday afternoon, the swell should decline enough to allow seas to drop below 12 ft. For both events above, please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information on the Gale Warning. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough stays mostly over Africa. To the south, an ITCZ extends west-southwestward from east of southern Liberia at 03N14W across 00N30W to near the Amazon Delta area. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted up to 140 m along either side of the ITCZ east of 22W. Widely scattered moderate convection is found up to 50 nm along either side of the rest of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends southwestward from near Sarasota, Florida through a 1010 mb low near 26N84W to a 1012 mb low at 23N90W, then continues southward as a cold front to over the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen up to 120 nm north and 60 nm south of the stationary front. A surface trough reaches northwestward from the 1012 mb low to southeast of Corpus Christi. Patchy showers are occurring near the cold front and surface trough, and over the western Bay of Campeche. Fresh to strong NE to ENE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas exist north of the stationary front at the northeastern Gulf, including the Florida Big Bend area. Moderate to fresh with locally strong ENE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are present at the north-central Gulf. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft exist across the southwestern Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas at 2 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas in the southwestern Gulf will decrease today, but strong NE winds and rough seas in the northeastern Gulf will increase as the low tracks east along the slow-moving front and across Florida into tonight. Thunderstorms with locally gusty winds can be expected across the eastern Gulf ahead of the low. The front will then stall into late week over the far southeastern Gulf and gradually dissipate, leaving a tight pressure gradient between it and building high pressure from the southeastern U.S. This will maintain the strong winds and rough seas over the northeastern Gulf much of the week, with near gale conditions possible Wed and Thu offshore Florida. Conditions will begin to improve somewhat Fri as the high pressure builds southwestward across the northern Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The southwestern end of the Atlantic Ridge is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trades and seas of 6 to 8 ft across the eastern and south-central basin. Gentle to moderate NNE to ESE winds and 3 to 5 ft seas exist at the southwestern basin. Light to gentle winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trades will prevail over the central and eastern basin into Thu, with gentle to moderate winds to the west. Strong high pressure will then build southward from the western Atlantic, leading to increasing winds, especially in the south-central basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features Section at the very beginning about a Gale Warning. A stationary front extends southwestward from north of Bermuda across 31N74W and central Florida. Scattered heavy showers and strong isolated thunderstorms are noted near and south of the front to near 26N, including the northwest Bahamas. Farther southeast, a surface trough is triggering scattered showers from 25N to 28N between 65W and 71W. A cold front curves west- southwestward from near the Canary Islands to 25N43W. Patchy showers are evident up to 50 nm along either side of the front. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Outside the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong NE winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft are evident behind the aforementioned stationary front. Southeast of this front to near the Turks and Caicos Islands and 70W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas exist. For the rest of the western Atlantic north of 00Z between 50W and 70W/Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft in mixed moderate to large swells dominate. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W outside the significant N swell mentioned in the Special Features section, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 7 to 11 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will drift southeastward tonight, then stall through much of the week along a Bermuda to Florida Straits line. Low pressure will track east- northeastward along the boundary from the Florida Peninsula tonight to north of the area near Bermuda Thu. Thunderstorms with gusty winds will accompany this low pressure. The pressure gradient between strong high pressure and the front is supporting NE gales offshore northeastern Florida. These gales will spread east to about 73W, mainly north of 28N, through Wed night, before gradually ending as the low pressure moves north of the area. Very rough seas of 16 to 18 ft will be generated by these gales, and rough seas in N swell will impact a much larger area through the end of the week. The front is likely to linger over the basin into the weekend, so marine conditions could be slow to improve.