Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Oct 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 55W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 19N between 49W and 60W. A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis along 83W, south of 21N, moving westward at around 15 kt. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to 11N53W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 15N and E of 35W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front is over the NW Gulf. A weak low pressure of 1010 mb is analyzed near 22N96W. A surface trough extends from the low center to the Big Bend of FL. Fresh to locally strong W to NW winds and moderate to locally rough seas are noted between the trough axis and the coast of Mexico. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are associated with these features. Similar convective activity is also noted over the NE Gulf. Numerous moderate to strong convection is affecting the Yucatan Peninsula. A ridge extending from the western Atlantic into Florida is supporting moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds and moderate seas across much of the central and eastern Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will follow a trough along the E Mexican offshores through Tue. Weak surface ridging over the NE Gulf will continue to shift E through late Tue ahead of a slowly moving front, which will stall over the northern Gulf Mon through Tue night. Fresh NE to E winds and building seas are forecast N of the front. Looking ahead, broad low pressure may develop over the far southwest Gulf Wed night into Thu. Although environmental conditions are expected to be only marginally conducive, some slow development is possible and a tropical depression could form late this week while the system drifts northward through Fri. Regardless of development, moderate to fresh winds and building seas are forecast over the western Gulf during that period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper-level trough over the Windward Passage and Hispaniola is helping to induce widely scattered showers and thunderstorms over these regions. High pressure north of the area, combined with the Colombian Low is supporting moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across much of the Caribbean Sea with moderate seas. Locally strong trades are seen offshore NW Colombia. For the forecast, weak ridging over the western Atlantic will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and central Caribbean through Tue morning, except offshore Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela where fresh winds will pulse to strong speeds at night through Mon. Afterward, a cold front will move across the waters N of the region, further weakening the pressure gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An area of showers, with embedded thunderstorms is located N of Puerto Rico, and is associated with an upper-level low. A surface trough is analyzed over the central Atlantic, and extends from 31N32W to 28N38W to 29N44W. Scattered moderate convection is along the trough axis. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is dominated by high pressure producing mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas. Locally fresh NE winds are seen SW of the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, weak ridging over the western Atlantic across Bermuda will continue to shift eastward through Mon ahead of a cold front that will stall from Bermuda to NE Florida by midweek. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will follow the front, but remain off NE Florida through Wed. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through Fri.