Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Sep 1 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1727 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Edouard is centered near 29.4N 93.3W at 01/1500 UTC or 30 nm S of Cameron Louisiana, moving NW at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are around 15 ft. On the forecast track, the center of Edouard is forecast to reach the northwestern Gulf Coast within the warning area later today and move inland over southeast Texas tonight. Additional strengthening is forecast before Edouard makes landfall today, and the storm could approach hurricane strength. Rapid weakening is expected after the center moves inland. Edouard is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches with maximum totals up to 9 inches for parts of the Upper Texas Coast inland through east- central Texas, with potential for 2 to 4 inches in far southwest Louisiana. This rainfall is likely to produce flash flooding, especially in low- lying and urban areas. River flooding may also be possible. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Edouard NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 31.5W, south of 19N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 13.5N between 27W and 34W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 50W, south of 23N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 15N to 19N, along the wave axis. The western Caribbean tropical wave is transitioning into the Eastern Pacific. More information about this wave can be found in the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (TWDEP) ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 17N16W and continues southwestward to 07N45W. The ITCZ extends from 07N45W to 10N59.5W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring from 03N to 10N between 35N and 44.5W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Edouard. Away from Tropical Storm Edouard, weak high pressure dominates, supporting gentle or weaker winds and slight seas, except for moderate E winds along the western coastal waters of the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is found in the NE Gulf. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Edouard will move inland to near 30.2N 94.2W this evening with maximum sustained 40 kt gusts to 50 kt, then move farther inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 31.2N 95.2W Wed morning and dissipate Wed evening. In the wake of Edouard, relatively weak high pressure will prevail allowing for moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The low level remnants of former Dolly, now a surface trough, extends from the southeastern Bahamas to eastern Cuba and the adjacent Atlantic waters. To the east of the trough E to SE winds prevail. Scattered moderate convection is present near the Isla de la Juventud, the Windward Passage, portions of Hispaniola, and the adjacent Caribbean waters N of 16.5N. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between the Azores High and associated ridge and lower pressure across northern South America is leading moderate to fresh trades across the central and eastern basin E of 78.5W, with highest winds offshore western Venezuela. Seas in this region are 4 to 6 ft. To the W of 78.5W, winds are gentle along with slight seas. The eastern end of the Eastern Pacific monsoon trough is supporting a cluster of moderate convection south of 14N and west of 79W. For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough will continue moving WNW through Thu. Elsewhere across the basin, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and Colombian low will continue to induce fresh to strong easterly trades and moderate to rough seas over the central and eastern Caribbean through the rest of the period, with moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevailing for the remainder of the waters. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extending from south Florida E-NE to SW of Bermuda continues to promote scattered moderate convection across this area, north of 25N. Another surface trough, remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, extends from the southeastern Bahamas to eastern Cuba. Fresh SE winds are over the waters south of about 20N between 68W and 76W. Elsewhere, a 1027 mb Azores High near 33N33W extends a ridge westward to near 59W. Moderate to fresh E winds along with seas 4 to 6 ft prevail south of 26N and east of 50W. Fresh to strong NE are present north of 18N and east of 20W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the rest of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough, remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, will continue moving WNW through Thu. Elsewhere, abundant deep tropical moisture will continue to help enhance scattered thunderstorms W of 63W through Wed. Otherwise, the subtropical ridge will dominate, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas over the forecast waters.