Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Nov 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A 1002 mb low pressure area, Invest AL94, is located near 25.5N62.5W. This non-tropical low pressure area located several hundred miles south-southeast of Bermuda is producing disorganized heavy showers and thunderstorms N of 20N between 46W-61W. The low could still acquire some subtropical characteristics through tonight before upper-level winds increase on Sunday. The low is forecast to move generally eastward over the western and central subtropical Atlantic during the next couple of days and become absorbed by a new non-tropical low pressure system to its east early next week. Regardless, gale- force winds are over parts of the central subtropical Atlantic and will continue through the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html and the latest Tropical weather outlook at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/TWOAT.html for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and extends SW to 10N20W where it transitions to ITCZ, which then continues to 07N50W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 01N to 14N between 22W and 43W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends from from St Petersburg to the NW Gulf. A reinforcing cold front extends from 30N84W to 28N87W. Moderate NNE winds follow the fronts. Moderate NE winds are also over the Bay of Campeche offshore Yucatan. Slight seas to 3 ft are basin- wide. For the forecast, the front will slowly shift across the basin into early next week. Moderate to fresh winds will prevail behind the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Invest6 AL94, south of Bermuda and E of the Bahamas, continue to disrupt the trade wind flow across the Caribbean basin. Also, a broad low of 1008 mb prevail over the Nicaragua offshore waters, which is supporting scattered showers and isolated tstms over the Honduras and Belize offshores. Similar convective activity is over the E Caribbean E of a surface trough that extends across E Puerto Rico to 15N67W. A weak pressure gradient over the region due to the aforementioned features is supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas to 3 ft basin-wide. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the basin will result in moderate or weaker trade winds, along with slight to moderate seas, through early next week. Winds will strengthen over the central Caribbean by Tuesday. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning and the potential for subtropical development of Invest AL94. Aside from Invest AL94, a cold front extends from 31N28W to 26N44W, then it stalls to 28N52W. A warm front continues from that point to 30N62W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is ahead of the cold front to 18W. Strong to near gale- force SW winds are ahead of the front while fresh to strong NNW winds follow it. Rough seas of 8 to 12 ft are N of 23N between 25W and 50W. South of Invest AL94, winds are fresh to strong from the SW, extending south to 20N between 50W and 68W. For the forecast west of 55W, Invest AL94 will drift slowly east- northeastward. A second low may develop east of this low today. The lows will merge over the eastern waters late in the weekend, then shift east of the area by early next week. An area of strong to gale-force winds, and rough to very rough seas, peaking near 16 ft, will prevail north of the lows, impacting the waters mainly north of about 27N and east of 65W through tonight. Elsewhere, a weakening cold front has entered the waters between Florida and 75W. The front will dissipate by Sun.