Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Jan 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0425 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant rainfall event: Moist onshore flow near a weakening frontal boundary over the NW caribbean will support heavy rainfall through late Thu, with 2 to 4 inches of rainfall possible primarily over northern Honduras, eastern Guatemala, and coastal Belize. In particular, strong moisture convergence along the frontal boundary where it intersects the hilly terrain over northwest Honduras may create the potential for isolated areas of more than 8 inches of rainfall through late Thu impacting various communities to include Tela, Puerto Cortes, and San Pedro Sula. Marine interests in the Gulf of Honduras should also be aware of the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through mid week. Please follow your local weather office for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 05N19W. The ITCZ extends from 05N19W to 01N30W and to the coast of Brazil near 03S39W. A surface trough is analyzed from 05N40W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from south of 07N and between 31W and 48W. GULF OF AMERICA... A strong high pressure dominates the Gulf of America, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. However, rough seas are still occurring in the Yucatan Channel. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted across much of the Gulf except over the offshore waters from Florida to Louisiana where dry offshore flow has cleared the skies. For the forecast, 1032 mb high pressure over the N central Gulf states maintains a broad ridge across the basin. Fresh N to NE winds will slowly diminish across the southern half of the Gulf tonight. Associated seas will subside NW to SE through Wed. The high will shift southeastward on Thu as low pressure develops in the north- central Gulf along the next cold front. This front is expected to reach from the Florida Panhandle to Veracruz by Fri night and move SE of the basin Sat evening. Another round of strong northerly winds will follow this front, with gale-force winds near Veracruz likely to begin Sat morning, and also develop S of the Florida Panhandle Sat afternoon and evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from eastern Cuba to the Bay Islands. The pressure gradient between this front and the ridge over the southern United States results in fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas over much of the NW Caribbean. A tight pressure gradient also exists in the south-central Caribbean, forcing fresh to near gale-force NE winds and rough seas. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, surface ridging extending from the central Atlantic westward to near 65W will support moderate to fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean as well as the Tropical N Atlantic waters through Wed morning. Fresh winds offshore of Colombia will pulse to strong at night through Thu night. A stationary front extending across central Cuba to the north coast of Honduras will prevail in the area through Thu, then begin weakening through the end of the week. Strong northerly winds will persist behind the front before briefly diminishing to fresh by Wed morning. Strong winds and moderate seas will develop again over the NW Caribbean by the end of the week as surface ridging to the N strengthens. A new strong cold front will move into the NW basin by late Sat, with strong winds and rough seas expected behind it. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A strong cold front extends from 31N57W to eastern Cuba. A few showers are evident near this boundary. Moderate to fresh N winds follow the front along with 8 to 12 ft seas. Fresh to locally strong SW winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are within about 300 nm ahead of the front north of 29N. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a ridge extending from 1025 mb high pressure centered near 26N27W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are noted south of 23N and east of 60W. In the NE Atlantic, a stationary front extends from the coast of Morocco westward to 29N36W. No significant weather is associated with this feature. A large northerly swell spreads across the eastern Atlantic due to a strong low pressure well north of the area. Seas of 12 to 17 ft are found north of 21N and east of 40W. Moderate to rough seas are occurring south of 21N and east of 60W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will become stationary and weaken as it reaches from near 29N55W to the SE Bahamas and east Cuba Wed evening, then will meander across this area through Thu. New high pressure across the Gulf of America will build eastward into the W Atlantic and freshen winds behind the lingering front Thu through Thu evening. The next strong cold front will enter the western waters on Sat. Associated low pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the W Atlantic this weekend, inducing a large area of westerly gale-force winds across the area beginning Sat evening