Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Apr 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues southwestward to near 03N20W and then to 00S39W. The ITCZ then continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen S of 09N and E of 20W. Scattered moderate convection is seen S of 05N between 20W and 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Satellite imagery shows low clouds and fog forming in the W Gulf generally N of 23N and W of 92W, so low visibility may be a concern in this region. Surface ridging prevails with a weak 1013 mb high analyzed over the eastern Gulf. Moderate to fresh E winds prevail along the northern Yucatan Peninsula and W of 90W, with gentle to moderate of weaker winds elsewhere. Slight seas prevail basin- wide. For the forecast, a ridge across the E Gulf waters, combined with a surface trough along the coast of Mexico reaching offshore Veracruz will support moderate to fresh southeast winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin through the middle of the week. In addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Fri night. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the northern Gulf Wed night into Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough analyzed from the Leeward Islands to the coast of Venezuela is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the eastern Caribbean. A relatively weak pressure pattern exists across the basin, moderate to fresh trades occurring offshore NW Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras, with gentle to moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Slight seas prevail basin- wide. For the forecast, a surface trough meandering across the Atlantic waters north of the Greater Antilles will continue to contribute to a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea into Mon resulting in mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas, except in the Gulf of Honduras where moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected. Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the eastern and central Caribbean Mon night through Thu as high pressure again builds north of the area in the wake of a cold front that will be moving across the western Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A warm front is analyzed from a 1012 mb low near 23N68W to near 23N54W. A frontal remnant trough is then analyzed from that point to near 31N39W. Widely scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen along and north of the warm front to about 27N. In the west Atlantic, a surface trough is analyzed along the eastern FL coast. Scattered moderate convection is developing along this trough as a frontal boundary lingers to the north. In the central Atlantic, another frontal remnant trough extends from 31N42W to 28N58W. Seas of 7-9 ft follow this feature. Away from these features, surface ridging prevails with moderate to fresh trades across much of the Atlantic S of 20N and E of 60W, as well as N of 20N and E of 30W. Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Seas of 4-7 ft also prevail across much of the basin away from the enhanced seas behind a frontal remnant trough mentioned above, and W of 70W where slight seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a remnant frontal trough lingering north of the Greater Antilles will gradually dissipate through Mon. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds north of 25N east of 69W will gradually shift northeastward through Tue ahead of a cold front while increasing to fresh to strong speeds. A cold front over the waters east of northeast Florida will reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by Mon night, from near 31N59W to 25N64W and weakening to the central Bahamas late Tue before shifting east of 55W early on Wed. Moderate to fresh northerly winds, and moderate to rough seas are expected north of 27N in the wake of the front through Mon night. Looking ahead, another cold front is expected to move off the northeast Florida late Thu or Thu night, and weaken as it reaches from near Bermuda to 28N72W and stationary to South Florida late Fri.