Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Nov 30 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0453 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A broad surface trough currently analyzed along 48W is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas 8 to 10 ft from 19N to 27N between 35W and 54W. The trough will continue to advance westward into the waters north of the Leeward Islands Sun trough Tue night, and bring fresh to strong E winds across most of the waters from 16N to 30N east of 60W through Monday. Seas within these waters will build to 8 to 13 ft. Late on Monday, winds and seas will begin to diminish as the trough weakens and continues westward to 65W. This pattern is partly associated with a broad upper level trough across the central Atlantic. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 09N13W and continues to 06N21W. The ITCZ extends from 06N21W to 08N54W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 02.5N to 13.5N east of 15W. Similar convection is depicted along the ITCZ between 21.5W and 41W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Strong high pressure centered over the mid-Atlantic coast of the U.S. dominates the Gulf of America. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures associated with the stationary front in the NW Caribbean and SW North Atlantic result in fresh to strong NE winds in the SE Gulf and Florida Straits. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. In the western Gulf, moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 5-7 ft are noted west of 94.5W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the gradient between high pressure centered mid- Atlantic coast of the U.S. and a stationary front southeast of the basin is supporting fresh to strong winds in the Florida Straits and far southeast Gulf. These winds persist over the far western Gulf ahead of an approaching cold front over Texas. This front will move offshore Mon, stall Mon night into Tue, when a low pressure will form off Texas and move northeastward across the southeast U.S. into the northwest Atlantic. Thereafter, the front will move southeastward farther into the basin, but then stall into late week as another low forms over Texas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A dissipating stationary front across the NW Caribbean extends from central Cuba to Belize. Divergence aloft and tropical moisture are supporting scattered showers over the central Caribbean, eastern Cuba, and Hispaniola. Moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are occurring in the central, and eastern Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a stationary front from central Cuba to Belize is dissipating. High pressure over the western Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the basin through the early part of the week. Winds and seas will diminish by mid week as the high shifts east. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a Significant Swell Event in the Central Atlantic. A stationary front extends from just E of Bermuda to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is depicted along the front. Strong high pressure centered over mid- Atlantic coast of the U.S. continues to force fresh to strong NE winds to the west of the front across the Bahamas to the Straits of Florida. Seas are 8-11 ft from 25N to 30N between 63W and 76W. Seas are 4-8 ft elsewhere in the W Atlantic. Elsewhere across the basin, aside from the SPECIAL FEATURE, trades are gentle to moderate with 4-7 ft seas, except for locally fresh winds over the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will dissipate through Sun, and high pressure north of the front will shift eastward, allowing winds and seas to diminish. Another weak front will stall off the northeast Florida coast Mon, then lift northward Mon night. Expect southerly winds and building seas north of 29N and west of 75W Tue as low pressure moves from the northern Gulf to the Carolinas. Looking ahead, these strong southerly winds will shift eastward north of 28N ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Tue night into Wed. This front will reach from Bermuda to South Florida by late Wed. Meanwhile, strong winds and rough seas will accompany a trough moving westward into the waters northeast of the Leeward Islands Sun through Tue night.