Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Thu Mar 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2325 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the forecast zones of Agadir and Tarfaya. The forecast calls for northerly gales with severe gusts through 12/0300 UTC at least. Very rough seas to around 13 ft (4 m) are likely with these winds. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details. Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front will move off the southeastern United States coast on Thursday evening. Tonight, ahead of the front, southwest winds will increase to fresh to locally strong, with building seas to 7 ft. In the wake of the front on Thursday night, NW to N winds will quickly increase, reaching gale-force speeds north of 29N and west of 78.5W for a short period of time. Gale winds will decrease to strong to near gale speeds late overnight. Seas will peak around 10 ft with these winds. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to near 03N18W. The ITCZ extends from 03N18W to 01S30W to 02S40W. A cluster of showers and thunderstorms is depicted south of 07N and west of 16.5W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted from 05S to 02N between 23W and 38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A ridge extends from the eastern Atlantic high pressure system west- southwestward to the central Gulf while low pressure is over eastern Mexico. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the low pressure is allowing for mainly moderate to fresh southeast to south winds across the basin, with the exception of light winds in the far NE Gulf and light to gentle south winds over the far west-central portion. Seas are 5 to 7 ft west of 26W and 2 to 5 ft east of 26W. For the forecast, aforementioned ridge will shift eastward tonight through the remainder of the week. A cold front will enter the NW Gulf tonight, and move southeastward before stalling across the SE Gulf Thu night, then dissipate there Fri through Fri night. Expect strong to near gale-force N winds behind the front through Thu evening before winds gradually diminish. Marine conditions will improve significantly early Fri through Sun as weak high pressure settles just N of the basin. Another cold front will move into the NW Gulf Sun night and reach the SE Gulf by Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure centered over the eastern Atlantic and relatively lower pressure found in northern South America is maintaining fresh to strong trades over the central basin. Mostly fresh trades are elsewhere across the basin. Seas of 8 to 11 ft prevail in the south-central part of the sea, 5 to 7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High and a Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades across the central basin through Thu morning. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will also pulse near the Windward Passage, S of Hispaniola, and the Gulf of Honduras tonight. The high pressure will shift eastward Thu through Sat, leading to fresh to strong winds becoming confined to the south-central Caribbean S of 13N during that time, while marine conditions gradually improve area- wide as the pressure gradient weakens. Large easterly trade wind swell from the Tropical N Atlantic will slowly subside across the Atlantic waters E of the Lesser Antilles tonight through early Sat while. High pressure will build across the Atlantic to the N Sat night through Mon, leading to fresh to strong trades and building seas extending from the Tropical N Atlantic to the eastern and central Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information about a Gale Warning in effect for the western Atlantic and for the Meteo- France forecast zones of Agadir and Tarfaya. A 1033 mb high pressure system is north of the area centered SE of the Azores. A ridge extends from the high west-southwestward to central Florida and west-northwestward from there to roughly along 31N. Recent scatterometer satellite data reveals light to gentle to moderate southeast to south winds from 27N to 29N west of 60W, gentle to moderate east winds south of 27N west of 60W and mostly moderate to fresh northeast to east winds elsewhere, including the entrance to the Windward Passage. Another exception is northeast winds of strong to near gale-force confined to north of 24N and east of 20W, including the waters surrounding the Canary Islands due to a strong pressure gradient resulting from the difference in pressure between a 1034 mb high pressure system north of the area and relatively lower pressure in NW Africa. Seas of 8 to 11 ft prevail north 20N east of 45W, and 6 to 8 ft south of 20N and E of 40W and from 07N to 20N between 40W and the Lesser Antilles. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere southeast of a line from 31N50W to 24N63W and to the southeastern Bahamas. Lower seas of 3 to 5 ft are west of the same line. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail S of 25N through this evening, as Atlantic high pressure continues along 32N. Fresh to strong southerly winds will develop off northern Florida tonight ahead of an approaching cold front. That front will move offshore of NE Florida by Thu evening with fresh to gale-force winds and quickly building seas behind it Thu night. The front will then rapidly weaken and begin to stall as it reaches from near 31N71W to extreme S Florida Fri morning, then drift NW and dissipate Fri evening. High pressure ridging will then prevail across the northern waters Sat and strengthen Sat night through Mon, leading to fresh to locally strong winds basin- wide, and rough seas over the SE waters.