Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun May 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front near Cape Coral, Florida to the offshore waters just north of the Yucatan continues as a stationary front to the central Bay of Campeche near 19N95W. The front will stall and gradually wash out by Mon morning over the far SE Gulf. Fresh N to NE winds will continue behind the front into early afternoon, except strong to minimal gale force offshore Veracruz this morning before diminishing. Rough to very rough seas will continue with these winds before gradually subsiding early in the week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...TROPICAL WAVES... The first tropical wave of the season is analyzed along 37W, from 01N to 11N, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is near the southern portion of the wave axis south of 04N between 33W and way out ahead of the wave to 52W. The northern portion of the wave continues to move through a hostile dry environment which inhibit other impacts. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W, then continues SW to near 03N19W. The ITCZ extends from 03N19W to NE Brazil near 01.5S49W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, numerous moderate to strong convection is ongoing along and offshore Liberia. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a Gale Warning for the SW Gulf. As referenced above, a cold front near Cape Coral, Florida to the offshore waters just north of the Yucatan continues as a stationary front to the central Bay of Campeche near 19N95W. Other than the gale force winds offshore Veracruz, Mexico, fresh to strong NW-N winds extend northward to near Tampico with mainly fresh NE winds across the remainder of the area behind the front. Rough to very rough seas are south of 26N and west of 90W and west of the front, with 4-7 ft seas elsewhere behind the front. Currently, a wide band of showers and thunderstorms related to the front is over portions of South Florida and the SE Gulf, with another cluster in the SW Gulf. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are likely with this convection. Ahead of the front, light and variable winds prevail, except moderate out of the SE near the Yucatan Channel. Seas are mainly 2-5 ft ahead of the front. For the forecast, the front will stall and gradually wash out by Mon morning over the far SE Gulf. Fresh N to NE winds will continue behind the front into early afternoon, except strong to minimal gale force offshore Veracruz this morning before diminishing. Mon and Tue should see quiescent conditions prevailing across the Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE to S return flow will set up in the W Gulf Tue night and Wed, locally strong near the Yucatan. Looking ahead, another cold front may reach the NW Gulf by Thu. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure in the central Atlantic and mb low pressure over northern Colombia is sustaining fresh trades in the central and eastern Caribbean along with 4-7 ft seas. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are in the NW basin, mainly off Belize and in the Gulf of Honduras along with 4-6 ft seas. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the basin, along with 3-5 ft seas. Convection continues to flare- up over the Yucatan Peninsula associated with a pre- frontal trough. A large area of showers and thunderstorms is extending from the peninsula to the NW Caribbean, as well as the Yucatan Channel. Otherwise, the E Pacific monsoon is supporting widely scattered showers offshore Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, and southern Nicaragua. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean along with locally rough seas at times, and moderate to fresh trades over the remainder of the E and central Caribbean for the next several days. Fresh to strong SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras will diminish around sunrise today as a weakening cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel. After the cold front dissipates near the Yucatan Channel on Mon, expect SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras to increase Tue through Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N75W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida. Fresh to strong SW winds are present north of about 27N and east of the front to 67W, with fresh to locally strong NW-N winds behind the front. Associated seas are 5-7 ft north of 27N and west of 70W. Frontal troughing from near 31N32W to 25N37W supports scattered moderate convection north of 24N east of the troughing to about 27W. A broad band of showers and thunderstorms is within about 120 nm ahead of the front. Broad surface ridging dominates elsewhere in the subtropical waters. Fresh N-NE winds extend offshore Africa to the Cabo Verde Islands to the north of the monsoon trough along with 6-8 ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh trades are south of 12N. Moderate or weaker winds prevail across the remainder of the waters, along with moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from 31N60W to a low pressure area forming near 27N74W Mon morning. The low will ride along the frontal boundary to be just south of Bermuda Tue morning with the front extending southwestward to the central Bahamas. The front should be dissipating by Wed morning. Expect fresh to strong SW winds south of the front today, followed by fresh to strong NE winds north of the front on Mon and Tue with locally rough seas. Looking ahead, conditions should become quiescent Tue night through Thu. The next cold front may approach the SE United States coast by Thu night with the potential for increasing winds north of the Bahamas again.