Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Dec 29 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf waters early this morning. Gale force winds and rough seas are expected in the wake of the front off the coast of Texas and Louisiana early this morning, and offshore of Tampico and Veracruz by this afternoon and night. Prolonged gale force winds and significant very rough seas will persist over the western Bay of Campeche through late Tue night. Seas will peak around 20 ft off Veracruz Tue. Conditions will improve from north to south by midweek. Central Atlantic Gale and Significant Swell: A couple of cold fronts are moving through the north central waters, extending from a storm force low centered near 42N49W. The first cold front extends from 31N44.5W to 22N61W to 24N71W. The second cold front enters the waters near 31N47W to 25N61W to 26N70W. Near-gale to gale force winds are on either side of the front N of 28N between 41W and 54W. Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds are over the waters N of 23N between 38W and 60W. Winds W of the front will diminish below gale force this morning, with gale force winds continuing N of 28N within 60 nm east of the front through this afternoon. Large N swell generated from the storm system is producing very rough seas greater than 12 ft over the forecast waters N of 24N between 40W and 63W. These very rough seas will shift eastward while gradually subsiding from south to north through the week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 11W and 25W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning. A surface trough is noted over the SW Gulf, with moderate winds in the vicinity of the trough. The remainder of the Gulf if under the influence of high pressure, anchored by a 1019 mb high centered over the eastern Gulf. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center, with gentle to locally moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range in the eastern Gulf, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a cold front will move into the northern Gulf by early this morning. The front will rapidly shift across the Gulf waters, moving SE of the area Tue. Gale force winds and rough seas are expected in the wake of the front off the coast of Texas and Louisiana early this morning, and offshore of Tampico and Veracruz by this afternoon and night. Prolonged gale force winds and significant very rough seas will persist over the western Bay of Campeche through late Tue night. Widespread strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas are expected elsewhere behind the front. Winds and seas will diminish from north to south through midweek. High pressure will build over the basin following the front with moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas through late this week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-9 ft, over the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail over the north central Caribbean. Moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong trade winds and rough seas are expected over the central Caribbean through the middle of the week as a moderate pressure gradient prevails between the Colombian low and high pressure to the north. Winds may reach near-gale force offshore of northern Colombia tonight. Moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected over the rest of the basin through midweek. Elsewhere, a long period N to NW swell will bring rough seas over the Atlantic waters this week. A cold front will move into the northwestern basin late Tue into Wed, and weaken as it moves southeastward and dissipates on Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for details on a gale warning and a significant swell event in the central Atlantic. Aside from the cold fronts with gale warnings, and the significant swell with very rough seas 12 ft or greater, rough seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of a line from 28N70W to 15N54W to 30N22W. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft are over the deep tropics S of 12N between 35W and 60W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong W to NW winds and very rough seas will continue over the central tropical Atlantic, north of 22N and east of 65W, through this morning as a series of cold fronts extending from a storm system north of the area move over the region. Widespread rough seas associated with this storm system will prevail east of 70W will subside from west to east early this week. Farther west, fresh to locally strong W to SW winds will develop offshore of Florida on today ahead of another cold front moving through the southern U.S. This front will move offshore by late today, with fresh to strong W to NW winds and rough seas in the wake of the front. These winds and seas will expand eastward toward the central Atlantic through midweek as the front moves eastward. Another cold front is expected to enter the northwest tropical Atlantic late this week, with increasing winds and building seas near and behind the front.