Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Mar 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1651 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front is moving into the waters offshore of northeast Florida this morning. It is forecast to reach from 31N60W to SE Florida by Sun morning, and from 31N50W to Hispaniola by Mon morning before dissipating over the SE waters on Tue. Strong to gale force N to NE winds, and rough to very rough seas to 15 ft are expected behind the front from this morning to Sun morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 0.5N22W. The ITCZ then continues from that point to 04S38W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm either side of both boundaries. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front is moving into the northern Gulf this morning and extends from the Cedar Key, FL to just south of Brownsville, TX. Recent satellite derived winds confirmed the presence of NE fresh to strong winds in the wake of the front. Seas are 3 to 5 ft within these winds. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds prevail elsewhere across the basin along with 2 to 5 ft seas. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will reach from the Tampa Bay area to near 26N91W by this evening, and move southeast of the basin on Sun. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate seas are expected in the wake of the front over the northern Gulf through late this morning, and over the eastern Gulf late today through Sun. The pressure gradient will remain strong enough to sustain fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas across the southeast Gulf and the Straits of Florida through the middle of the next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are in the 5 to 8 ft range over these waters. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere across the central and western basin. Gentle to moderate trades are ongoing across the eastern Caribbean with moderate seas. Otherwise, isolated showers remain over the NW Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas offshore Colombia through early next week. Then, high pressure following a strong cold front moving through the western Atlantic this weekend, will sustain fresh to strong NE to E winds and building seas in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola from tonight through Tue night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING. A strong cold front is entering our AOR and extends from 31N78W to just north of Saint Augustine, FL. Farther east, a surface trough is supporting scattered moderate convection from 20.5N to 29N between 50W and 62W. A broad surface ridge continues to extend across the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are over the central and eastern basin. Over the SW N Atlantic waters, winds are mainly light to gentle ahead of an approaching cold front, except for moderate to fresh over the Great Bahama Bank, including the approaches of the Windward Passage. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front is forecast to reach from 31N60W to SE Florida by Sun morning, and from 31N50W to Hispaniola by Mon morning before dissipating over the SE waters on Tue. Strong to gale force N to NE winds, and rough to very rough seas are expected behind the front from this morning to Sun morning. Strong high pressure following the front will support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas across most of the forecast region likely through Tue night into Wed.