Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Feb 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Atlantic Gale Waring: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for their Agadir and Tarfaya Marine Zones starting 14/12 UTC. For more details, please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Guinea and Sierra Leone, then reaches southwestward to 05N18W. An ITCZ continues from 05N18W through the Equator at 30W to near Sao Luis, Brazil at 02N43W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen south of the monsoon trough from 1N to 05N and east of 16W, and near the ITCZ from 03N to 05N between 20W and 30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weakening stationary front meanders northwestward from southern Florida to beyond New Orleans, Louisiana. Patchy showers are found up to 30 nm along either side of this boundary. Latest observations along with composite satellite imagery reveal patchy dense fog is present near northern Yucatan Peninsula, Naples Florida and along the Texas/Louisiana coast. Moderate to fresh NE to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are seen across the western Gulf, including the Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate NNE to E winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the central and eastern Gulf. For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will support light to gentle winds across much of the Gulf, with the exception of moderate winds across the western Gulf. Southerly return flow will increase to between fresh and strong on Sat ahead of a cold front that will enter the Gulf waters this weekend. Strong S to SW winds and rough seas are expected in the north-central and northeastern Gulf with this frontal system on Sun. The front is forecast to move southeast of the area by Mon. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad surface trough is generating scattered showers near Hispaniola and south of Jamaica. Otherwise, a modest trade-wind regime persists across much of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and 6 to 7 ft seas are evident off northwestern Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the southeastern and rest of the south-central basin, including the ABC Islands. Moderate with locally fresh NE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are noted at the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage. Mostly gentle NE to E winds and 2 to 5 ft seas prevail the rest of the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, pulsing strong NE winds will prevail near the coast of Colombia through midweek next week. Moderate to rough seas are expected with these winds. Strong winds will develop over the Windward Passage and south of the Dominican Republic this weekend as a high pressure passes north of the area and tightens the gradient. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N54W to 25N72W, then continues westward as a stationary front to beyond the central Bahamas. Scattered showers are present near and up to 100 nm northwest of the front. Farther southeast, convergent southerly winds are generating scattered moderate convection from 21N to 26N between 56W and 62W, and north of 26N between 47W and 53W. Near and north of the Mona Passage, a surface trough is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. For the western Atlantic north of 20N between 55W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast, gentle to moderate SW to NW to NE winds with 5 to 8 ft seas are evident. To the east, moderate to fresh E to SSE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft dominate north of 20N between 35W and the cold front/55W. For the tropical Atlantic from the Equator to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate NE to ESE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will shift eastward with high pressure building in the wake of it. S winds will strengthen offshore north and central Florida on Sun in advance of another cold front that will move off the southeast U.S. coast on Mon. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front.