Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Thu Mar 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2230 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 06N11W to 01N21W. The ITCZ extends from 01N21W to 00N43W. Scattered moderate convection S of 05N E of 40W. GULF OF AMERICA... A weakening stationary front extends from Fort Myers, Florida, to Leeville, Louisiana. Moderate E winds and moderate seas are N of the front. Similar conditions are in the Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, gentle breezes and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, the front will dissipate later today. A weak high pressure will move from the SE of the United States to the northeast Gulf on Fri. A trough over the Bay of Campeche will support moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through the forecast period. The next cold front will move into the northern Gulf Sat morning, reach the SE Gulf by Sun morning, and move southeast of the basin late on Sun. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas will follow the front over the eastern Gulf Sat night through early Mon. The pressure gradient will remain strong enough to sustain fresh to strong east winds across the SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida through the middle of the next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from 15N80W to 19N85W. Scattered moderate convection is between this trough, the Cayman Islands, and Jamaica. Fresh to locally strong E winds are also present in region. Aside from the far SW basin, where like to gentle winds prevail, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas dominate the majority of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas offshore Colombia tonight through Sat night. High pressure will follow a strong cold front moving through the western Atlantic this weekend, supporting fresh to strong NE winds and building seas in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola from Sun through likely Wed. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N64W to near Stuart, Florida. Scattered moderate convection has developed along this boundary N of the Bahamas. N of the boundary, fresh NE to E winds and rough seas are present. For most of the remainder of the basin, a weak pressure gradient is leading to moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. In the far eastern Atlantic, a weakening 1012 mb low is S of the Canary Islands. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are N and W of the low center, impacting waters N of 24N and E of 25W. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds and rough seas north of front will diminish through tonight as the front dissipates. Moderate winds and seas will prevail Thu through late Fri across the region. The next strong cold front will move into the waters offshore of northeast Florida by Sat morning, and reach from 31N65W to central Florida by Sat night, and from 31N60W to SE Florida by Sun morning. Strong to near-gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front.