Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Aug 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Rainfall: A strong tropical wave, remnants of Dolly, is along 55.5W, south of 21N, moving westward at 20 to 25 kt. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring from 15.5N to 21N and between 53W and 57W. Scattered showers are also found from 09N to 12N between 51W and 56W. This tropical wave will cross the northern Leeward Islands tonight, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sun and Sun night, then Hispaniola Mon. This wave will bring strong to near gale force winds, rough seas, and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall to nearby waters S of 23N. Islands local topography could enhance orographic lift and support additional rainfall, varying by island. Peak rainfall rates are expected from Sat night through Sun. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and your local weather service office for additional information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 33W, south of 18N, moving westward at around 15 kt. No significant convection is noted near this wave. A tropical wave is over the eastern Caribbean, along 68.5W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 18N between 67W and 70W. A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean, along 82W, south of 21N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident in SW Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 19N16.5W to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to 10N52W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is present near the monsoon trough in the eastern Atlantic and near the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak low pressure system in the northern Gulf waters and divergence aloft are producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of the basin east of 90W. Light to gentle variable winds prevail across the Gulf waters, except for locally moderate E winds over the Bay of Campeche. Seas 1 to 3 ft prevail across the basin. For the forecast, weak low pressure about 100 nm offshore Mobile Bay will continue to produce scattered thunderstorms with gusty winds and locally higher seas as it drifts west over the next few days. This low has a low chance of tropical development over the next 7 days. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly light to gentle winds and slight seas into into late next week. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for rainfall information associated to a strong tropical wave that will cross the northern Leeward Islands tonight. High pressure north of the area forces fresh to locally strong easterly winds and rough seas across the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the north-central and eastern Caribbean and also in the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a strong tropical wave will cross the northern Leeward Islands tonight, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sun and Sun night, then Hispaniola Mon. This wave will bring strong to near gale force winds, rough seas, and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall to nearby waters. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressure over South America will support strong trades and rough seas over the south- central Caribbean this weekend. These winds will diminish slightly early next week as the aforementioned tropical wave disrupts the pressure gradient. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information about a strong tropical wave moving across the Atlantic. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are found across the waters between Bermuda and the Bahamas, particularly west of 68W. Converging middle level winds and a diffluent pattern aloft are helping to induce this convective activity. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters, anchored on a pair of surface highs north of our waters. The ridge supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast waters south of 26N and west of 35W. Farther east, fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas prevail N of 21N and E of 23N to the coast of west Africa, including the Canary Islands. Primarily moderate winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere to 35W, under the influence of the ridge. For the forecast west of 55W, a strong tropical wave will cross the northern Leeward Islands tonight, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sun and Sun night, then Hispaniola Mon. This wave will bring strong to near gale force winds, rough seas, and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall to nearby waters S of 23N. Elsewhere, deep tropical moisture and an upper-level trough will aide in scattered moderate convection W of 70W into early next week. At the surface, the subtropical ridge will dominate the basin supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in the remainder of the forecast waters. However, winds will pulse to locally strong off northern Hispaniola through Sun night.