Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Apr 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues SW to 03N27W. The ITCZ extends from 03N27W to 00N43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 03N and E of 20W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A ridge extends SE into the basin. Under the influence of this ridge, moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas prevail, except in the Straits of Florida where strong E winds and 7 to 8 ft seas are ongoing. For the forecast, a cold front will move off Texas tonight, then track slowly SE across the basin through Mon night. Ahead of the front, fresh to strong E winds will prevail in the Florida Straits into tonight. Behind the front, strong NE winds and rough seas are expect across portions of the western Gulf Sun into Mon, with these conditions spreading into the NE Gulf Mon night through Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh trades over the most basin, except for strong NE winds offshore Colombia. Seas are moderate except rough within the strong speed winds. Scattered moderate convection in association with a land breeze has developed within 90 nm of the southern coast of Haiti. For the forecast, the aforementioned pressure gradient will continue to support pulsing strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia into tonight. The high pressure will weaken some as it slides eastward Sun allowing for the the gradient to slacken. This will lead to diminishing winds and subsiding seas. An inverted trough will develop from Hispaniola northward into the open Atlantic Mon through Tue and drift westward toward the Bahamas. The gradient between it and central Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh trade winds across the eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the area and relatively lower pressure in the tropics is allowing for strong northeast to east winds along with rough seas over much of the waters S of 25N and E of 55W. A low and mid-level trough drifting W through the Turks and Caicos and SE Bahamas is generating scattered moderate convection. A weak 1015 mb low pressure in the far eastern Atlantic near 22N28W is no longer producing any sensible weather. Thus, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the basin outside of the corridor of strong winds and rough seas N of the Greater Antilles. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will dominate waters N of 25N this weekend. The pressure gradient between this high and lower pressure in tropics will lead to fresh to strong E winds S of 23N, along with rough seas. Conditions will improve Sun night into Mon as the high weakens and moves E. In the wake of the high, a cold front will move off the SE United States, then move slowly SE, reaching near 31N70W to South Florida Tue, then Bermuda to the Florida Straits by Wed. Low pressure may track along this front during this time, will high pressure builds into the SE United States N of the boundary. The resulting pressure gradient will lead to widespread strong to near gale force NE to E winds behind the cold front, along with rough to very rough seas starting Tue. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecast.