Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Thu Jan 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1028 mb high pressure over the central Atlantic and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds offshore Colombia. These two features will remain in place through the middle of the week, before the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Drainage flow at night will enhance winds off Colombia to gale force tonight through Thu morning. Rough seas are forecast with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends southwestward to 07N16W. The ITCZ continues from 07N16W to 00N46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 15W and 25W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough is over the far SW Gulf, with high pressure dominating the remainder of the Gulf waters. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-7 ft prevail. For the forecast, strong high pressure over the SE of the United States supports fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and moderate seas across most of the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. These marine conditions will persist through this evening. The next cold front is slated to enter the NW Gulf Sat followed by fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas. Reinforcing high pressure in the wake of the front, may bring near-gale to gale conditions first near Tampico Sun night, then near Veracruz on Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section on a Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 7-9 ft, prevail over the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-8 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, gale force NE winds will pulse tonight through early Thu morning over the waters offshore Colombia. Thu night through Fri early morning winds will pulse to near gale force in the same area. Strong high pressure over the SE of the United States will continue to promote fresh to locally strong NE winds and moderate seas across the NW Caribbean through this evening. These winds are transporting abundant tropical moisture into northern Honduras supporting periods of locally heavy rainfall. A surface trough, and associated area of moisture, will move across the Leeward Islands this evening, and over Puerto Rico on Thu, likely reaching Hispaniola on Fri. This is forecast to increase the likelihood of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the islands and surrounding waters. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends southwestward from east of Bermuda to over central Cuba. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-10 ft prevail W of the front. The remainder of the Atlantic discussion waters are dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 32N44W. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, are in the vicinity of the high. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-12 ft, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, Atlantic high pressure will continue to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas east of 65W through Thu. A stationary front extends from 31N59W to western Cuba. This front will lift N and gradually dissipate through Thu. The pressure gradient over the W Atlantic will continue to support fresh to strong NE winds in the vicinity of the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through this evening. The next cold front will likely move offshore NE FL Mon. Ahead of the front, fresh to strong SW winds are possible on Sun night, W of 75W.