Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sun Sep 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 45W from 02N to 21N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 15N to 20N between 41W and 50W. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 82/83WW south of 19N to western Panama, moving westward around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 15N to 20N between 77W and 85W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 14N17W to 09N27W to 15N45W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 14W and 21W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak pressure gradient prevails across the area. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, prevail N of 25N. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are found S of 25N. For the forecast, weak ridging north of the Gulf will maintain generally gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf for the next several days. An upper-low and associated surface low/trough over the central Gulf will contribute to scattered showers and thunderstorms today and tonight. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to locally strong winds and moderate seas prevail over the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are elsewhere E of 80W. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are found W of 80W. For the forecast, a modest pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian Low will maintain fresh to locally strong trades over the S central Caribbean for the next several days. A vigorous upper-level low will promote scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the W Caribbean for at least the next two days. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The Atlantic waters N of 20N are dominated by three troughs. The first one is from the central Bahamas northward to 28N73W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is in the vicinity of this trough. Farther east, another trough extends from 31N60W to 25N52W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of this trough. A third trough is from 29N43W to 23N46W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of this trough. A weak pressure gradient prevails across the waters W of 45W with light to gentle winds and slight seas prevailing over these waters. East of 45W, gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate winds across forecast waters for the next several days. A vigorous upper-level low and abundant tropical moisture will force scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms for the waters west of 65W for at least the next two days.