Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Thu Nov 6 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Swell Event: Large long-period NW swell is propagating across the north central Atlantic waters, with seas greater than 12 ft covering the waters N of 29N between 55W and 63W. Seas are currently peaking near 14 ft (4.0 M). The area of 12 ft seas will continue eastward across the discussion waters generally N of 28N through Fri before subsiding below 12 ft. Mariners should use extreme caution over these waters, depending on vessel type and cargo. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 09N13W and continues westward to near 08N19W. The ITCZ continues from 08N19W to 10N39W to 09N49W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 11N between 18W and 52W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough is analyzed over the central Gulf, and extends from 26N89W to the Yucatan peninsula. The remainder of the Gulf region is under the influence of high pressure, anchored by a 1024 mb high over the NE Gulf, and a 1022 mb high over the SW Gulf. Moderate winds with moderate seas dominate the E Gulf while light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the surface trough will slowly progress toward the northwest Gulf coast into early Fri, and moderate to occasionally fresh E to SE winds are expected to the east of the trough axis. The trough will dissipate by early Fri as a cold front passes to the north of the basin, and moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds will occur in the western Gulf early Fri through Sat morning. A strong cold front is forecast to enter the northwestern Gulf on Sun and will shift eastward over the basin into early next week, with fresh to strong winds and building seas expected in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends across eastern Cuba and the NW Caribbean generating scattered showers and thunderstorms. The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the eastern extend of the east Pacific monsoon trough is supporting moderate winds over the central and Western Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are noted over the eastern Caribbean. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the central and western Caribbean and 2-4 ft over the eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE winds will pulse in the lee of Cuba and through the Windward Passage into early Thu as a stationary front in the northwestern Caribbean dissipates. Elsewhere, mainly moderate trade winds and moderate seas are expected over much of the Caribbean through Fri, with locally fresh winds possible in the south-central basin and offshore of southern Hispaniola. A long-period N to NW swell will lead to rough seas east of the Lesser Antilles by early Fri, with a reinforcing mixed E swell supporting rough seas through the Atlantic passages this weekend. Moderate to fresh E winds will develop over the central and eastern basin by this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on a large set of NW swell is moving through the northern discussion waters, currently between 55W and 63W. A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N46W and continues SW to near 23N70W, where it transitions to a stationary front that continues to eastern Cuba. Moderate to fresh winds are N of 30N and E of the front to 42W. Moderate winds, and rough to very rough seas are behind the front. High pressure is building in the wake of the front and dominates the western Atlantic. Farther E, a cold front extends from 31N13W to 29N21W to 31N32W. This front has ushered in a set of NW swell, with rough seas propagating across the eastern Atlantic N of 26N. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1021 mb high centered near 27N40W. Light winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, prevail elsewhere across the discussion waters. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh N to NE winds will prevail north of the aforementioned cold front through late this evening as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Winds will slowly diminish into Thu as the cold front moves eastward and the stationary front slowly dissipates. Rough seas in N to NW swell will expand southeastward to areas north of 23N and east of 73W through this evening, and north of 20N on Thu. Seas in excess of 12 ft will be possible north of 27N and east of 63W through Thu morning. Rough seas will be reinforced over the waters east of 65W by Fri as a strong storm system passes north of the waters. A cold front is expected to move off the coast of the southeastern U.S. late this weekend into early next week, leading to fresh to strong winds and building seas in the wake of the front.