Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun May 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1710 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: The Gale Warning has expired, but strong to near-gale force NE winds continue in the SW Gulf offshore Veracruz. Seas are currently 8-12 ft. Winds and seas will quickly diminish overnight into Monday morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The tropical wave is along 39W, from 10N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is south of the equator, west of 30W, including coastal sections of Brazil. Most of the wave continues to move through a hostile dry environment which inhibits other impacts. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W, then continues SW to near 03N20W. The ITCZ extends from 03N20W to NE Brazil near 02S36W. Aside from the convection described in the TROPICAL WAVES section, scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 07N east of 17W. GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a Gale Warning for the SW Gulf. The late-season cold front extends from Miami, FL, to just north of the Florida Keys, to the northern tip of the Yucatan Peninsula, to 1012 mb low pressure centered in the SE Bay of Campeche. North of the front, surface observations and satellite scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh NE winds, diminishing to gentle speeds along the northern Gulf Coast. Seas are 4-7 ft across the basin. Scattered showers and tstorms are along and ahead of the front, including within the Yucatan Channel and the Straits of Florida. For the forecast, the cold front will stall and gradually wash out by Mon morning over the far SE Gulf and Straits of Florida. Strong to near-gale force NW winds offshore of Veracruz will diminish later today. Elsewhere, fresh N to NE winds will continue behind the front into tonight. Expect Mon and Tue to see quiescent conditions prevailing across the Gulf. Moderate to fresh SE to S return flow will set up in the W Gulf Tue night into Thu. Looking ahead, another cold front - albeit weaker - may reach the NW Gulf by Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean, with gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are 3-6 ft across the basin. Scattered moderate convection associated with the equatorial trough continues to flare up in the south-western Caribbean offshore Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, and southern Nicaragua. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the area and the Colombian Low will support pulsing fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh trades over the remainder of the E and central Caribbean for the next several days. A weakening cold front is approaching the Yucatan Channel today. After the cold front dissipates near the Yucatan Channel on Mon, expect SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras to increase to fresh to strong Tue through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N72W to Miami, FL. Scattered showers and tstorms are along and ahead the frontal boundary. Recent satellite scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh NE to N winds north of the front, with 4-7 ft seas. Elsewhere across the tropical and subtropical Atlantic, high pressure prevails, anchored by 1021 mb high near 26N57W and 1019 mb high near the Canary Islands. Moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from 31N59W to a low pressure area forming near 27N77W Mon morning. The low will ride along the frontal boundary to be just south of Bermuda Tue morning with the front extending southwestward to the central Bahamas. The front should be dissipating by Wed morning. Expect fresh to strong SW winds south of the front today, followed by fresh to strong NE winds north of the front on tonight and Mon. Looking ahead, conditions should become quiescent Tue through Thu.