Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Nov 8 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2050 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 13N16W and continues southwestward to near 08N24W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 00N49W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 02N to 08N between 20W and 39W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak ridge dominates most of the Gulf region. Moderate winds are found over the far NW Gulf, with gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-3 ft range over the NW Gulf, and 1-2 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds will continue over the western basin through Sat as a complex low pressure system moves over the south-central U.S. A strong cold front will move into the northwest Gulf Sun morning and progress southeastward, exiting the basin Mon afternoon. Strong to near gale-froce N to NE winds and rough seas can be expected behind the front, and gale force winds and very rough seas are likely offshore of Veracruz Mon. Conditions will improve basin- wide by Tue evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Atlantic and the Colombian low is supporting moderate trade winds over the central and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds are over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range over the central and eastern Caribbean, and 2-3 ft over the western Caribbean. For the forecast, winds will freshen over the central and eastern Caribbean tonight, then prevail through Monday, as a surface trough moves westward through the region, and high pressure builds to the north. Locally strong winds and rough seas are forecast in the south- central Caribbean starting late Sat. Elsewhere, rough seas in mixed N and E swell are expected over the waters east of the Lesser Antilles into late Tue. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is slated to enter the northwestern Caribbean Mon, leading to widespread strong NE winds and rough seas in the wake of the front. The cold front is forecast to reach from E Cuba to E Honduras Tue evening. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N30W to the NW Bahamas. An area of showers and thunderstorms is along the frontal boundary just E of the Bahamas. Another stationary front extends westward along 31N and W of 60W. A ridge, anchored by a 1021 mb high pressure located near 28N40W, dominates the remainder of the forecast waters. A surface trough is analyzed E of the Lesser Antilles, from 18N56W to 09N56W. Scattered moderate convection is on either side of the trough axis. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Gentle to locally moderate winds are W of 60W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 10-11 ft range N of 27N between 30W and 33W. Elsewhere E of 60W, seas of 6-8 ft are noted. W of 60W, seas are in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in N swell will impact waters SE of Bermuda to about 20N through tonight. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds will develop offshore of Florida late this weekend ahead of a cold front moving through the southeastern U.S. The cold front will push off the coast Sun night and progress southeastward into the central Atlantic, leading to strong winds and rough seas behind the front through Tue night.