Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Sep 19 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Gabrielle is centered near 20.8N 52.7W at 18/2100 UTC or 610 nm ENE of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving WNW at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are peaking around 18 ft just northeast of the center. Gabrielle continues to experience strong westerly shear, keeping an area of thunderstorms within 180 nm to the northeast of the partially exposed center. The storm will continue on a NW trajectory over the next 36 to 48 hours and intensify to hurricane strength as Gabrielle moves into a more favorable environment.. Gabrielle will then turn more northerly and pass well to the east of Bermuda by late Sun in Mon. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Gabrielle NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An African easterly wave along the African coast near 17W from 21N southward, moving west near 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is along the coast of Senegal. An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 33W from 22N southward, moving west around 15-20 kt. Isolated moderate convection is noted from 14N-16N between 32W-34W. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is near 74W from 22N southward from southwest Haiti to northeast Colombia, moving west at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring over the Gulf of Gonave in Haiti, and inland over northeast Colombia. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W over coastal Mauritania to 10N25W to 08N40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-10N between 20W-25W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough extends southward from the central coast of Louisiana to 25N92W. A few showers and thunderstorms are active along another trough over the western coast of Yucatan, to the north of a tropical wave moving into southern Mexico. Weak high pressure north of the area is the main influence elsewhere, supporting gentle to moderate NE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas across the basin. For the forecast, the weak high pressure centered north of the region will continue control the general weather pattern through Fri night before shifting NE and weakening into next week. Unsettled weather will continue over the far southeastern Gulf through through Fri night as ample moisture and a nearby trough remain in place. With Tropical Storm Gabrielle over the Atlantic lifting northward through Sun, Atlantic ridging will build westward along the northern Gulf early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on the tropical wave moving across the basin. An upper-level trough extends across the Atlantic from Bermuda to Puerto Rico, then across the central Caribbean to northwest Venezuela. This pattern is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms south of Puerto Rico. Divergent flow aloft west of the upper trough is enhancing the convection over the Gulf of Gonave and along with some late seabreeze related convection over central Cuba. A few showers and thunderstorms are also active across the Bay Islands of the Gulf of Honduras. Relatively weak ridging north of the area is allowing only light to gentle easterly breezes across the basin this evening, with 1 to 3 ft seas. For the forecast, gentle to moderate trades along with moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the sections above for details on Tropical Storm Gabrielle and the tropical waves across the eastern Atlantic. Away from Tropical Storm Gabrielle, there is a weak pressure gradient across the basin, centered on 1027 mb high pressure located north of the area 40N42W. A cold front south of the high pressure reaches from the Azores to 31N45W. Outside of the main impact area of Gabrielle, this pattern is supporting mostly gentle to moderate easterly winds and 4-6 ft seas. For the forecast west of 55W, Gabrielle will move to 22.0N 54.9W Fri morning, 23.2N 56.8W Fri evening, 24.5N 58.4W Sat morning, 26.1N 59.9W Sat evening, 28.0N 61.0W Sun morning, and strengthen to a hurricane near 29.9N 61.4W Sun evening. Gabrielle will change little in intensity as it moves to 34.6N 58.6W by late Mon. In its wake, central Atlantic high pressure will build westward generally providing for light to gentle winds over the central and western portions of the area, and for gentle to moderate winds over the eastern portion.