Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Mar 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf tonight, then move southeastward across the Gulf through Mon night. Widespread strong to near-gale northerly winds will follow the front, peaking to gale-force off the Texas coast tonight through early Mon morning, then off the Mexico coast from the Texas-Mexico border southward to near Veracruz Mon. Seas will peak to 15 ft with the strongest winds. Winds off Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico could gust up to storm- force on Mon. Both winds and seas should gradually subside from north to south starting Mon evening. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 05N9W and continues to 02N19W. The ITCZ continues from 02N19W to 04S38W. Scattered moderate convection is from 01N to 05N between 21W and 38W. GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a GALE WARNING. Moderate to fresh SW to S return flow prevails along the western edge of the subtropical Atlantic ridge, with locally strong winds noted in the far NW Gulf off the coast of Texas. Scattered moderate convection is evident on satellite from 22N to 27N between 82W and 87W, including waters in the vicinity of the Yucatan Passage and western Straits of Florida. Additional scattered moderate convection is developing over South Florida. This unsettled weather across the eastern Gulf is a result of a shortwave trough in the region drifting towards the Florida Peninsula. For the forecast, a strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf tonight, quickly reaching the southeastern Gulf by Mon night and slow down as it moves into the northwestern Caribbean on Tue. Strong to gale-force N winds and building seas will follow the front. Gale conditions and rough to very rough seas are forecast in the NW Gulf, and offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico tonight and Mon. Gusty winds to storm-force are expected offshore Tampico and Veracruz on Mon. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build across the region into midweek. CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong to near-gale force trades were captured by satellite scatterometer this morning, in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Seas in this area are currently 8-10 ft. Elsewhere, mainly fresh trades prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean, with 4-7 ft seas. Of note, scatterometer data also indicates strong trades between the islands of the Lesser Antilles. In the western Caribbean, moderate trades and 2-4 ft seas prevail. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of a surface trough along 64W, currently passing through the eastern Caribbean at 10-15 kt. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to build westward across the west and central Atlantic today. The resulting pressure gradient will lead to fresh to strong trades and building seas from the waters E of the Lesser Antilles today, and to the eastern and central Caribbean including the passages on Mon. The pressure gradient will weaken by Tue as a cold front approaches the NW Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An expansive subtropical Atlantic high pressure extends across much of the basin. Fresh to strong trades prevail south of 25N and west of 45W, including between the islands of the Lesser Antilles. The persistent strong trades have built seas of 8-10 ft in E swell within an area from the equator north to 22N between 45W and 65W. Another area of fresh to strong trades is in the far eastern Atlantic near the Canary Islands, where seas are 8-9 ft. Elsewhere, trades are moderate or weaker and seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, a strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf tonight, quickly reaching the southeastern Gulf by Mon night and slow down as it moves into the northwestern Caribbean on Tue. Strong to gale-force N winds and building seas will follow the front. Gale conditions and rough to very rough seas are forecast in the NW Gulf, and offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico tonight and Mon. Gusty winds to storm-force are expected offshore Tampico and Veracruz on Mon. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build across the region into midweek.