Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Nov 7 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1010 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Swell Event: Large long-period NW swell, with wave periods of 13-14 seconds is propagating across the north- central Atlantic waters, with seas greater than 12 ft north 26N between 35W and 44W. Seas are currently peaking near 13 ft along 31N. The swell will gradually subside through today, allowing for seas to lower below 12 ft. Mariners should use extreme caution over these waters, depending on vessel type and cargo. Additional pulses of NW swell are expected to reach the waters east of 55W by tonight, briefly building seas to 12 ft north of 30N roughly between 40W and 47W through early Sat. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11N15W and continues southwestward to near 08N23W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N32W to 01N41W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 03N to 11N between 08W and 30W, and from 01N to 07N between 30W and 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough extends from 26N91W to the coast of Mexico near 18.5N93W. To its northeast, a ridge stretches from the Mid- Atlantic region south-southwestward to the NE Gulf. The associated gradient is generally allowing for gentle to moderate southeast winds across the eastern and central Gulf waters north of 22N, and moderate south to southwest winds over the western Gulf. Seas of 3 ft or less are over the basin. For the forecast, moderate SE winds are expected over the north- central Gulf, north and east of the trough axis, through this morning. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds will then develop over the western basin today and continue through Sat as a complex low pressure system moves over the south-central U.S. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will move into the northwest Gulf on Sun and progress southeastward through the basin into Mon evening. Widespread strong N to NE winds and rough seas can be expected behind the front, and gale force winds and very rough seas will be possible offshore of Veracruz Mon morning into the evening hours. Conditions will improve basin-wide by Tue evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Gentle to moderate trade winds are over the central and eastern basin, except for fresh trade winds in the south-central portion of the sea. Seas are slight to moderate. A trough is over the E Caribbean Sea from the Virgin Islands to 13N67W. Isolated showers associated with this trough are affecting the NE Caribbean, including the Leeward Islands. For the forecast, moderate trade winds and moderate seas will prevail over the Caribbean through this afternoon, with winds pulsing to fresh speeds in the south-central basin and offshore of southern Hispaniola. Winds will freshen over the central and eastern Caribbean tonight into Mon as a surface trough moves westward through the region, and high pressure builds to the north. Locally strong winds and rough seas will be likely in the south- central Caribbean during the weekend. Elsewhere, rough seas in mixed N and E swell are expected over the waters east of the Lesser Antilles and through the Atlantic Passages this weekend into late Tue. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is slated to enter the northwestern Caribbean Mon, leading to widespread fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas in the wake of the front. The cold front is forecast to reach from E Cuba to E Honduras Tue evening. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on a NW swell event that is impacting the central Atlantic waters with very rough seas. A stationary front extends from 31N34W to 28N60W to the central Bahamas. High pressure, anchored by a 1021 mb high near 26N40W dominates the remainder of the discussion waters north of 18N. Aside from the significant swell event discussed in the Special Features section above, seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters north of 17N between 31W and 61W. For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in N swell will continue to expand east of 60W and southeastward to the waters north of 20N today. A new NW swell associated with a storm system passing north of the area will reinforce rough seas east of 60W this morning through Sat morning. Moderate or weaker winds are expected over the waters through much of today, with occasionally fresh E winds developing south of 25N tonight. Looking ahead, moderate to fresh S to SW winds will develop offshore of Florida late this weekend ahead of a cold front moving through the southeastern U.S. The cold front will push off the coast Sun night into Mon and progress southeastward into the central Atlantic, leading to fresh to strong winds and rough seas behind the front through Wed.