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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Mar 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through Mon. Winds offshore of Colombia will pulse to gale-force until around sunrise this morning. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are expected with the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W, then extends southwestward to 02N20W. The ITCZ continues from 02N20W to the coast of Brazil near 03S45W. Widely scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of 06N between 15W and 54W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A ridge from the Atlantic extends westward across Florida into the Gulf region supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds with moderate seas across the Gulf waters S of 25N, with fresh to strong trades occurring through the Florida Straits confirmed by earlier scatterometer data. Slight seas are noted offshore Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are over much of the northern and NW Gulf coast as a front slowly moves across the south-central United States, as well as over parts of western Florida. Some areas of dense fog are present across much of the Gulf coastal waters as reported by recent in-situ observations. For the forecast, a weak cold front just inland over Texas will move into the NW Gulf coastal waters later today and stall before washing out. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending southwestward from the Bermuda High will settle in the Gulf through midweek next week. The pressure gradient between the ridge and low pressure over Mexico will support mainly moderate to fresh E to SW winds basin-wide, pulsing to between fresh and strong near the northern Yucatan and the western Gulf in the evenings, and slightly weaker winds overall in the NE Gulf. Seas will be slight to moderate through Wed. Another, but stronger cold front may impact the NW Gulf Wed night, moving across the basin through Thu night with increasing winds and seas behind it. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean. An enhanced pressure gradient is in place across the Caribbean, with high pressure near Bermuda and lower pressure over northern Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds are blowing through the Windward Passage to between Cuba and Jamaica. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are in lee of Cuba and the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and eastern Caribbean. Seas are in the 8 to 12 ft range in the south-central Caribbean, and 5 to 8 ft elsewhere across the east and central parts of the basin. Moderate trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted over the Greater Antilles. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a Bermuda High and a Colombian low will support fresh to near gale-force trades across the central and eastern Caribbean through Wed. Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-force until around sunrise today. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse near the Windward Passage with fresh winds near the Gulf of Honduras for the remainder of the weekend. Large easterly trade- wind swell from the tropical North Atlantic will keep rough seas near the Lesser Antilles through Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A ridge dominates the Atlantic forecast region, with a 1025 mb high pressure located just SE of Bermuda near, and another 1026 mb near high pressure situated N of the Madeira Islands near 35N19W. Fresh to locally strong trades are prevalent S of 25N and W of 45W, with seas of 7 to 9 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds are N of 20N and E of 20W to the coast of Africa due to a tight pressure gradient, with associated seas of 7 to 10 ft N of 15N and E of 28W. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6 to 7 ft are elsewhere S of 27N. Between the highs, 1020 mb low pressure is positioned just N of the area near 35N28W with a stationary front reaching SW to along 31N between 39W and 45W. Fresh to strong winds are just N of 31N behind the boundary, with associated rough seas seeping just S of 31N now between 40W and 45W. Across the remainder of the waters N of 27N, gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail under ridging extending between the highs. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail south of 25N through mid-week, reaching strong north of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Rough seas will prevail within these winds and east of the central and southeast Bahamas through Tue. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected elsewhere across the region. Southerly fresh to strong winds may develop off northern Florida Wed night ahead of a potential cold front. That front may move offshore by early Thu, weakening and slowing from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by late Thu night.