Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Feb 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning East of 35W: A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Canarias and Agadir Marine Zones of Meteo France. The forecast calls for NE winds to Force 8 on the Beaufort Wind Scale, with severe gusts between the Canary Islands through at least 01/0000 UTC. Seas currently range from 9 to 13 ft N of 10N and E of 30W based on a recent altimeter pass. Higher seas of 12 to 15 ft are possible just N of the Canary Islands. For more information, please see the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiches/2 Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A robust high pressure system near the Azores is maintaining fresh to near gale-force trade winds across the eastern and central Atlantic. Wind waves generated by these winds along with residual NW swell continue to create seas of 8 to 11 ft across most of the waters between 30W and 60W based on several altimeter passes. This swell event, with seas in the 8 to 12 ft range will persist over the next few days. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea near 11N15W, then extends southwestward to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W to the coast of Brazil near 04S40W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 00N to 06N E of 30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends from near Panama City, Florida southwestward to 28N93W and to inland South Texas. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are ahead of the front over the NE Gulf associated with a pre-frontal trough. This convective activity is further supported by a rather broad upper-level trough that is shifting eastward over the central Gulf. This convection extends over northern Florida. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds are ahead of the front, mainly E of 90W. Similar wind speeds are over the eastern Bay of Campeche while light winds dominate the remainder of the Gulf region. Seas are in general 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will slow down as it shifts east-southeastward across the northern half of the basin into Sat, and to east of the basin Sat night while weakening. A strong high pressure will build west-southwestward over the area from the N Atlantic beginning on Sun night, with the related gradient generally supporting moderate to fresh east to southeast winds across the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong high pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low supports fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean. Seas are 7 to 9 ft with these winds. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas dominate the eastern Caribbean while mainly gentle to moderate E to SE winds with moderate seas are noted over the NW part of the basin. Seas of 6 to 8 ft are noted across the Atlantic passages in the NE Caribbean. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean over the next several days. The same weather pattern will initiate gale-force winds off Colombia at night Mon through Wed, and fresh to strong trades elsewhere across most of the central and eastern portions of the basin. Rough seas in mixed swell will prevail in the tropical N Atlantic through early next week, with seas to 12 ft possibly near 55W. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale warning is in effect E of 35W. Please, see the Special Features section for more information. A strong high pressure of 1035 mb, located near the Azores, extends a ridge across the entire Atlantic forecast waters. The tight pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics and western Africa result in fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas over much of the central and eastern Atlantic. Fresh to locally strong S to SW winds and moderate seas are observed on the western periphery of the ridge N of the NW Bahamas and E of Florida. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak front will emerge off the southeastern U.S. coast early on Sat, and move slowly southeastward and weaken across the waters W of 65W through Sun night before dissipating. Another cold front is expected to enter the northern waters early next week and gradually shift southeastward and weaken. Fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas are forecast behind the front Mon night through Tue night north of 27N along with seas to around 12 ft near 31N between 50W and 67W. High pressure will build by the middle of next week resulting in moderate to fresh winds and rough seas over much of the basin.