Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Apr 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11.5N15.5W, then continues southward to 03N18W. The ITCZ extends from 03N18W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted S of 03N between 14W and 43W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A ridge extends from a 1024 mb high pressure over the western Atlantic westward across northern Florida and the northern Gulf. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures across the western Caribbean, as well as the diurnal Yucatan Peninsula trough supports fresh NE to E winds within about 90 nm of the coast of the Yucatan and the E Bay of Campeche, and fresh E winds through the Straits of Florida. Seas are 4 to 6 ft across these areas. Elsewhere, mainly moderate E to SE winds prevail, except for the NE Gulf where light to gentle winds and slight seas dominate. Seas are 3 to 4 ft across the remainder of the eastern Gulf and 4 to 6 ft across the western Gulf. For the forecast, the current ridge across the N Gulf will remain in place and slowly weaken through Sat to maintain gentle to moderate E to SE winds across most of the basin. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will allow fresh winds to pulse to strong during the evenings. Looking ahead, fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas will follow a cold front moving across the northern Gulf Sat night through Sun night. The front will stall from the Florida Straits to south Texas by late Mon. Fresh SE winds are expected ahead of the front over the NW and west-central Gulf beginning on Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad and deep layered cyclonic circulation continues across the Greater Antilles, the western half of the Caribbean and the adjacent Atlantic waters. This is inducing an inverted trough in the low levels that extends from Dominican Republic northward into the western Atlantic. This trough is weakening the local pressure gradient and supporting gentle to moderate winds across the eastern Caribbean E of 70W, except fresh winds along the NE coastal waters of Venezuela. Seas are 3 to 4 ft across these waters and 5 to 6 ft in the fresh winds off of NE Venezuela. The western Atlantic ridge extends southwestward across the Bahamas and the NW Caribbean, and is forcing fresh to strong NE winds through the Windward Passage, and in the lee of eastern Cuba, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh trade winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are occurring offshore Colombia. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE to E winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail. Abundant cloudiness, with possible showers, extends from Venezuela across the SE Caribbean and the Lesser Antilles into the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast, a surface trough extending from Hispaniola northward into the western Atlantic will move slowly westward and weaken through the weekend. This feature will disrupt the typical pressure pattern across the basin during this time. Expect fresh trade winds and moderate seas off the coast of Colombia at night through Fri night, then mainly gentle to moderate winds are expected there during the remainder of the week. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds and moderate seas will persist in the lee of Cuba, and in the Windward Passage through early today. Winds and seas will generally diminish across the basin as the trough passes north of the area Fri through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad and deep layered cyclonic circulation extends from a small upper-level low located just N of Hispaniola across the Bahamas, the Greater Antilles, and the western Caribbean. This features has induced a surface trough that extends from Bermuda to Dominican Republic. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing E of the surface trough and near the small upper low, particularly from 19N to 23N between 60W and 70W. A surface ridge extends across the north portion of the forecast area from the Azores to Bermuda and north-central Florida into the northern Gulf of America. The associated pressure gradient W of the aforementioned surface trough is producing a broad area of fresh NE winds south of 29N through the central and southeast Bahamas and across the eastern half of Cuba. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in this area. A moderate pressure gradient prevails south of the ridge and E of the surface trough to 20W. Moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across the basin S of 26N and into the tropics, with an area of fresh to locally strong NE to E winds affecting the waters from 06N to 12N between 50W and 56W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft with these winds based on altimeter data. Moderate to fresh NE winds are observed N of 20N and E of 20W, including the Canary Islands. Moderate to rough seas are related to these winds. For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough extending between Bermuda and Dominican Republic will drift west toward the Turks and Caicos Islands today, then will remain nearly stationary through Fri while gradually weakening, then drift westward and dissipate through the weekend. Moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate to locally rough seas will persist west of the trough across the southern Bahamas through this morning, with conditions gradually improving thereafter as the trough weakens. High pressure will build into the area from the E following the trough. Looking ahead, a cold front is forecast to move off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night. Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas in the wake of the front as it reaches from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late Mon.