Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon Mar 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low will continue to support strong to near gale-force NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas across the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean through at least Sat. Winds will pulse to gale-force over these waters at night with the added component of nocturnal drainage flow. Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A previous gale force wind event off the Canary Islands generated a large NE swell with very rough seas greater than 12 ft. The swell has propagated from this source region, with these very rough seas currently over the waters from 08N to 23N between 35W and 55W. The rough to very rough seas, currently peaking near 12-13 ft, will gradually subside from east to west through Tue night. Rough seas are then forecast to subside E of the Lesser Antilles later this week. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Liberia near 05N09W and continues southwestward to 01N13W. The ITCZ extends from that point to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted S of 10N and E of 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough is analyzed in the eastern Gulf along 86W. Moderate to fresh E winds are east of the trough, with gentle to moderate or weaker winds elsewhere across the Gulf. Slight seas prevail basin-wide. For the forecast, high pressure will extend from the N central Atlantic southwestward across the region through the week, with the resultant pressure gradient supporting moderate to fresh east to southeast winds across the Gulf, except in the Bay of Campeche where winds will be mostly moderate northeast to east. Fresh to strong winds will occur nocturnally off the northern Yucatan Peninsula starting Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean. Surface ridging from strong high pressure over the E CONUS and also the Azores High extends across the northern Caribbean, thus supporting the continuation of fresh to strong winds over the eastern and central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee side of Cuba. Seas in the regions of highest winds are moderate, except for rough seas offshore Colombia. For the forecast, a broad area of high pressure over the central Atlantic will support fresh to near gale-force trades along with moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean through Fri night. Winds off Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the nocturnal hours for the next few days. Fresh to strong northeast winds in the Windward Passage will continue through the end of the week. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds will pulse in the lee of Cuba at night and into the mornings also through the end of the week. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong winds will begin to pulse at night from Thu through Sat. Elsewhere, rough to very rough seas in wind generated east swell over the tropical N Atlantic will begin to slowly subside on Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features above for information on a significant swell event. A strong Azores high extending a ridge into the deep tropical waters continues to support a broad area of fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas from the coast of W Africa all the way to the Lesser Antilles and between the ITCZ and 27N. Northwest of the Canary Islands, a cold front brings fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas in NW swell. Lastly, a weak stationary front extends from 31N63W to near 26N73W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail ahead of the front and a pre- frontal trough to about 57W. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas follow the front. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extending from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas will weaken further as it slowly moves southeastward before becoming diffuse tonight. Elsewhere, high pressure over the central Atlantic will prevail over much of the western Atlantic while rough seas will continue over the southeastern waters. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas are forecast behind the remnants of the aforementioned front through Tue night north of 27N. An expansive area of strong high pressure will build across the north-central Atlantic by the middle of the week resulting in moderate to fresh winds and rough seas over much of the basin.