Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Oct 13 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Invest AL97: A tropical wave is located well to the southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands extending from 04N to 16N with axis near 39W. The wave is moving west at 15 kt and has a 1006 mb low pressure near 12N39W associated with it, which is generating numerous moderate to strong convection from 12N to 16N between 35W and 39W, and scattered moderate convection elsewhere from 07N to 18N between 32W and 42W. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more favorable for further development of this system during the next few days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle part of this week while it moves to the west- northwest then northwest at 15 to 20 mph across the central tropical Atlantic. This system has a medium chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hrs. Regardless of development, a gale warning has been issued per recent scatterometer data and the latest model guidance. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on the gale warning. Also read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Satellite and satellite derived data as well as model diagnostic data indicate the presence of a tropical wave just south of the Cape Verde Islands. The wave extends from 03N to 14N with axis near 24W, moving west at approximately 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection extends from 04N to 14N between 22W and 30W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 17N16W to 10N30W to 1006 mb low pressure near 12N37W to 08N45W. The ITCZ extends from 08N45W to 10N61W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 12N between 22W and 28W. Additional convection is described in Special Features section associated with Invest AL97. GULF OF AMERICA... A frontal system off the Carolinas and low pressure over Mexico is keeping a weak pressure gradient across the Gulf, which continue to support mainly light to gentle winds and slight to locally moderate seas. Locally moderate NE to E winds are also across the SE and central basin due to the presence of a dissipating stationary front that extends from the Florida Straits to 23N90W to 25N93W. For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the basin through late this week, resulting in gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds are expected to increase to fresh speeds over the eastern Gulf Thu night through Fri night as the pressure gradient tightens some across the area. CARIBBEAN SEA... Low pressure to the north and northwest of the basin continue to support a weak pressure gradient basin-wide, thus light to gentle winds over the western and central Caribbean along with slight seas. A slightly tighter pressure gradient over the eastern basin due to the ridge in the central subtropical waters is supporting moderate trades across the eastern basin. Otherwise, upper level divergence and moisture inflow from the east Pacific monsoon is generating heavy showers and tstms over eastern Cuba and its adjacent waters, in the eastern Gulf of Honduras and Haiti adjacent waters. For the forecast, a moist weather pattern will maintain scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the western and central Caribbean during the next few days. High pressure over the central Atlantic will support moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas across the eastern Caribbean through mid week. Meanwhile, a weak pressure pattern will maintain moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas elsewhere through the forecast period. A weak cyclonic circulation may develop over the NW Caribbean toward midweek. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a Gale Warning associated with Invest 97W. A stationary front extends from a non-tropical low off the Carolinas SW across the northern Bahamas and into the SE Gulf of America. Diffluent flow aloft ahead of the front along with abundant moisture inflow from the eastern Pacific monsoon trough are fueling heavy showers and tstms with potential gusty winds ahead of the front, across the central Bahamas and the Great Bahamas Bank. Farther east, a surface trough continues to fuel heavy showers and tstms from 27N to 30N between 57W and 62W. A cold front extends from 31N28W to 27N35W where it transitions to a dissipating stationary front that continues to 27N46W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of this trough. Otherwise, a weak surface ridge dominates the remainder subtropical waters, which is supporting moderate or weaker winds. For the forecast west of 55W, the remnants of former cyclone Jerry will continue to move away from the regional waters. Fresh to near gale-force winds will continue to affect the waters north of 28N and between 58W and 62W through early Sun. The stationary front will be reinforced on Mon, and a merged front will extend from 31N71W to the central Bahamas and western Cuba as a cold front by Mon evening, and from 31N66W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba by Tue evening. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are expected on either side of the front across the waters N of 27N by late Tue, and shift eastward through late in the week.