Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Mar 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and continues southwestward to 02N19W. The ITCZ extends from 02N19W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection within 120 nm on either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. GULF OF AMERICA... A broad subtropical ridge over the eastern Gulf waters supports fresh to locally strong NE-E winds in the eastern Bay of Campeche, especially south of 23N and east of 93W. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Dry weather conditions dominate the basin. For the forecast, high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will maintain gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas across the western Gulf, and light to gentle breezes over the eastern Gulf into late week. A weak cold front will move into the Florida Big Bend region of the Gulf late Tue, bringing moderate NE winds, then dissipate on Wed. A trough over the Bay of Campeche will support moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through the forecast period. Looking ahead, the next cold front will move into the northern Gulf on Sat. CARIBBEAN SEA... An expansive subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean forcing fresh to locally strong NE winds off southern Hispaniola, Windward Passage, lee of Cuba and off NW Colombia. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. The tail end of a stationary front enters the NE Caribbean to 16N70W and a surface trough is analyzed in the central Caribbean. Scattered showers are evident north of 13N and east of 84W. For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic centered E of the Bahamas will support fresh to locally strong NE winds south of Cuba, through the Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola tonight and Tue night. A weakening stationary front extending the central Atlantic through the U.S.V.I. will gradually dissipate through Tue. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will develop offshore Colombia Tue through Sat, mainly at night, as the high pressure moves slightly eastward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N49W and continues southwestward to 24N52W, where it transitions to a stationary front to the Leeward Islands. Scattered showers are noted near and east of the boundary. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are occurring north of 28N and between 44W and 55W. Northerly swell behind the front support rough seas north of 24N and east of 60W. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh SW-W winds and moderate seas are occurring north of 28N and west of 65W due to a frontal boundary north of the area. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are found off NE Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, with the strongest winds at the entrance of the Windward Passage. The rest of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, are dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that supports light to gentle winds and moderate seas. In the eastern Atlantic, a weakening 1008 mb low pressure centered south of the Canary Islands forces fresh to strong N-NE winds and rough seas north of 24N and east of 27W. N-NW swell support rough seas in the eastern Atlantic and central Atlantic trade waters. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, northerly swell of 7-11 ft covering the area north of 25N and east of 60W will subside below 8 ft overnight as the front shifts east of the area. A new cold front will enter the offshore waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight into Tue, followed by fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas. The front is expected to reach from 31N65W to near Cape Canaveral, Florida early Wed, before stalling, then will slowly weaken and lift northward through Wed night. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is expected to move into the waters offshore of NE Florida on Sat.