Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Jun 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 19W, S of 16N. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N and E of 25W. A tropical wave is along 34W S of 16N moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 10N between 30W and 40W. Another tropical wave is along 55W S of 18N moving west at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 12N between 48W and 57W. Similar convection is seen inland over NE South America. A tropical wave is moving across the Caribbean at 15 to 20 kt. Its axis is along 71W S of 17N. The wave appears to enhance convection over western Venezuela. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic off the coast of Mauritania, and continues southwestward to near 08N27W, then westward to 07N41W. The ITCZ extends from 07N41W to 07N53W. Most of the convective activity across the area is related to the tropical waves described above. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Ridging stemming from high pressure in the Atlantic expands into the Gulf. The interactions between this ridge and a trough along the western Yucatan Peninsula supports fresh to strong trades pulsing along the northern coast of the Yucatan Peninsula. Moderate to fresh trades prevail across much of the Gulf W of 90W, while gentle to moderate or weaker winds prevail E of 90W with a 1018 mb high analyzed in the eastern Gulf. Seas are 4-7 ft across much of the basin, except for the far eastern Gulf where slight seas prevail. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the far SE Gulf as an upper level shortwave trough moves over and just N of the region. For the forecast, a ridge of high pressure extends from the Atlantic westward across Florida to the central Gulf. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressures over Texas and northeastern Mexico will generally support mostly fresh southerly winds over the western and central Gulf. The fresh winds over the western and central Gulf will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds early next week with slight to moderate seas. Weak high pressure over the eastern Gulf will support light to anticyclonic winds and slight seas there through late Mon. The high pressure will become established over the central Gulf by midweek, with similar conditions expected over just about the entire basin at that time. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure over the central Atlantic and the Colombia Low supports fresh to strong trades and 6-8 ft seas across the central Caribbean as well as the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail in the eastern and NW Caribbean. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail north of the area into next week. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas in the central Caribbean through the forecast period, with highest winds and seas expected off the coast of Colombia. Pulsing fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Honduras nightly through Mon, pulsing briefly to near gale- force tonight. Moderate to fresh winds are expected over much of the remainder of the Caribbean through Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Three tropical waves are moving westward between W Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Please see the Tropical Waves section for more details. High pressure dominates the Atlantic forecast region, with a 1024 mb center near 28N58W. Flow around this high and the associated ridge axis supports moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas across much of the Atlantic S of 20N as well as over the waters between the Turks and Caicos Islands and Hispaniola. A recent scatterometer pass confirmed fresh to locally strong N to NE winds in a region from 18N to 25N and E of 20W. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring N of the Bahamas as an upper level shortwave trough moves over and just N of the region. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure across the basin will shift slightly eastward tonight as a cold front moves across the southeastern U.S. The front will move offshore northeast Florida on Sat, then stall and lift north as a warm front Sat night into Sun. Fresh southwest winds north of 30N and between 77W and 70W will diminish early Sat. Moderate to fresh trade winds will pulse to strong south of 22N into early next week, then be at mostly fresh speeds through the rest of the forecast period.