Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Apr 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued Gale Warnings for the marine zones of Agadir through 14/00Z and Tarfaya through 13/12Z. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast product, listed on the website at https://wwmiws.wmo.int. for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau, then reaches southwestward to near 05N20W. An ITCZ continues from 05N20W across 00N30W to near Sao Luis, Brazil. Widely scattered to scattered moderate convection is present up to 260 nm along either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1026 nm high over the Florida Big Bend area to near Tampico, Mexico. Thick cirrus from deep convection at northeastern Mexico is being carried across the northwestern Gulf by upper-level winds. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are present at the southeastern Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche, including the Florida Straits. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted off the Florida Big Bend area. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the high and associated ridge will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds and mostly moderate seas through Fri. Expect stronger winds to pulse across the southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits, through the early part of the week, and off the Yucatan Peninsula mainly at night through mid week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A robust trade-wind pattern persists across much of the Caribbean Sea. The southwestern end of a surface trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near Hispaniola and the Mona Passage. Strong to near-gale NE winds and seas at 8 to 9 ft are present off northwestern Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds with 6 to 8 ft seas exist for the rest fo the south-central basin. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate waters near the Windward Passage and lee of Cuba. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic will maintain fresh to strong E winds and rough seas over the south- central portion of the basin and near Colombia through the early part of the week. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate seas will prevail south of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through most of the week. Winds and seas will diminish late in the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about Gale Warnings off Morocco. A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N54W to near 29N56W, continues as a warm front to a 1018 mb low at 27N58W. It then becomes a stationary front and continue southwestward through a 1016 mb low at 25N63W to the northern coast of Hispaniola. Scattered moderate convection is occurring up to 110 nm northwest, and 170 nm southeast of these features. Convergent trade winds are causing scattered heavy showers near and north of the Amazon River Delta. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft are found near and behind the aforementioned frontal boundary, except moderate to locally fresh E winds and 6 to 7 ft seas off northeastern and central Florida. To the east, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft in moderate E swell exist north of 18N between 35W and the frontal boundary. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, moderate to fresh NE to ESE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the frontal boundary will dissipate through the early part of the week. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will persist west of the front mainly south of 27N through mid week, then diminishing through Fri.