Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Feb 1 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: The arctic cold front of the previous days has cleared the basin. A tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure building across the area in its wake and the front to the SE of the Gulf is resulting in near gale to gale force northwest to north winds east of 90W, while fresh to strong N winds are west of 90W. The gale force winds may gust up to 45 kt during the overnight hours. Very rough seas to around 19 ft with the gale force winds area over some sections of the eastern Gulf. These seas will subside to 8 to 12 ft on Sun as the winds there diminish. Winds and seas elsewhere will diminish from W to E across the Gulf through Sun night as the high pressure begins to shift eastward across the northern Gulf. Atlantic Storm Warning: A strong arctic cold front extends from the rapidly intensifying low pressure east of the Carolinas to 31N74W and southwestward to central Cuba. Farther east, another cold front extends from a rapidly intensifying low pressure near Bermuda. Strong showers and thunderstorms are evident ahead of this boundary. Storm force winds are occurring north of 27N and east of 78W. Gale force winds are affecting the water outside the storm conditions north of about 24N. Seas peaking to around 29 ft are expected over the NW water through early Mon. The storm force winds are forecast to lift north of the area Sun evening, with the gale force winds diminishing late Sun night into early Mon. The cold front will sweep across the forecast waters through Mon night, then slow down and weaken as it moves southeastward across the eastern waters Tue before stalling and weakening to a trough that shifts westward Wed through Thu. Seas across the forecast domain will slowly subside starting at midweek as high pressure in the wake of the front shifts eastward near 29N Mariners at both the eastern Gulf of America and western Atlantic should continue to monitor these dangerous situation, and prepare to execute avoidance plans. Smaller vessels are highly recommended to stay in port for the next couple of days. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information on both events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast near Kamsar, then reaches southwestward to 03N22W. An ITCZ continues from 03N22W across 01N35W to over the Amazon Delta area, Brazil. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near and up to 130 nm north of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in the eastern Gulf waters. Outside the Gale Warning area, especially west of 90W, fresh to strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are noted. The dry airmass moving across the Gulf waters results in stratocumulus clouds covering much of the basin. For the forecast, another cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Wed, reach from the Florida Panhandle to the western Gulf by Wed afternoon, and from southwest Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche by early Thu afternoon, then to SE of the basin by early Thu evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and building seas are expected behind this next frontal system. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An arctic cold front extends from central Cuba to Belize. Strong to near gale-force northerly winds and rough to very rough seas are found behind the boundary. Farther east, a surface trough extends from eastern Cuba to central Panama. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are evident between the trough and cold front. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are noted in the eastern Caribbean and south of 13N between the aforementioned trough and Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will overtake the trough early on Sun as it reaches from near Windward Passage to near southern Panama, and reach from Puerto Rico to NE Colombia by Sun evening. It will then begin to stall from eastern Puerto Rico to the northwest section of Venezuela Mon and Mon night. Strong to near gale force north winds and rough seas are expected behind this front. By early Tue, fresh to strong northwest to north winds will prevail roughly west of a line from the Virgin Islands to NE Colombia to central Cuba along with seas to near 12 ft. These winds and seas will likely diminish in coverage on Wed and further on Thu as another cold front approaches the northwestern Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section about a Storm Warning in effect for the W Atlantic. Outside of the Storm Warning area, a cold front enters the north- central Atlantic waters near 31N39W and continues southwestward to 26N52W. Moderate to fresh SW winds and rough seas are found ahead of the front to 30W and north of 29N. The remainder of the basin is under the influence of a 1026 mb high pressure system near 29N27W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and rough seas are found south of a line from Morocco to the Leeward Islands. Moderate to fresh SE winds and rough seas are also evident from 20N and 25N and between 50W and 65W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate to rough seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, please see the Special Features section for details.