Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Jul 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2220 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 22W, south of 16N, moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06.5N to 11N between 20W and 30W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 55W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 13.5N between 53W and 61W. A Caribbean tropical wave is along 84W-85W, south of 20N and extending into the tropical eastern Pacific, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is along the monsoon trough near the coast of Costa Rica, and extends ahead of the wave across Central America and into the adjacent Pacific waters. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 21N16.5W and continues southwestward to 06.5N35W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N35W to 06N45W to 9.5N53W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 06.5N to 12N E of 19W and into western Africa, and from 06N to 10N and between 30W and 35W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Weak high pressure extends from the western Atlantic southwestward across the SE U.S. and the northern Gulf waters, supporting moderate or lighter winds and slight seas across the entire basin. Divergence aloft is supporting a few showers and isolated thunderstorms over the western Bay of Campeche and Mexican coastal waters south of Tampico. Similar activity is also noted weakening across the NE Gulf. Scattered afternoon thunderstorms across southern Florida are moving westward and reaching the coasts between Tampa Bay and Naples. For the forecast, a weak surface ridge will dominate the basin through the forecast period. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse off the NW Yucatan Peninsula nightly through early next week due to local effects associated with a daily surface trough. Gentle to moderate easterly winds will prevail across the western half of the Gulf while moderate or lighter winds are expected elsewhere E of 90W. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure across the NE Atlantic extends southwestward through 30N39W and then west-southwestward to the NW Bahamas. The pressure gradient across the basin has tightened behind a tropical wave move moving into Central America, and supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 8-11 ft in the central to SW Caribbean. The strongest winds and highest seas are found off NW Colombia. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring ahead of a tropical wave approaching the Lesser Antilles, and are weakening as they cross the islands and encounter SW wind shear. Scattered thunderstorms are along the monsoon trough S of 10N across the coastal waters of western Panama and Costa Rica. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the basin and the Colombian Low will continue to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas over the central Caribbean through Fri morning, then diminish slightly through the weekend. Expect winds to reach near-gale force each night offshore of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will continue in the eastern Caribbean while moderate or weaker winds will prevail over the NW part of the basin. Active showers and thunderstorms are expected across the SE Caribbean tonight through Fri night as an upper-level trough sinks across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening front remains stationary along about 31N, from 55W to 1017 mb low pressure near 31.5N73W, then becomes a surface trough extends from 31N74W to the upper Florida Keys. Low level convergence south of the front, and along the trough are aiding in the development of scattered moderate convection between the NW Bahamas and SE Florida, and S of the front to 28N between 47W and 72W. A 1033 mb high pressure system centered NE of the Azores extends a ridge southwestward through 30N39W then west- southwestward to the waters east of the Bahamas. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-8 ft are found south of 22N and west of 35W to the SE Bahamas. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present north of 20N and east of 35W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a surface trough extending from 31.5N73W to the Upper Florida Keys will gradually dissipate tonight while drifting northwestward toward the southeastern U.S. coast. The Atlantic ridge will then build weakly from the central Atlantic westward into central Florida through early next week. This pattern will support moderate to fresh E-SE trade winds S of 22N, and moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Expect fresh to strong winds each late afternoon into the early evening hours near the coasts of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico.