Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Wed Apr 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W, then continues SW to 02N25W. The ITCZ extends from 02N25W to 00N33W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 03N between 17W and 33W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A ridge dominates the Gulf region. Under the influence of this system, moderate E to SE winds dominate, except fresh to locally strong NE to E winds in the Florida Straits, offshore W Cuba, and offshore the Yucatan Peninsula, where the pressure gradient is enhanced locally. Seas are moderate, except for slight in the NE basin. For the forecast, a ridge extends from high pressure over the west- central Atlantic across Florida into the northern Gulf. This pattern will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds and mostly moderate seas through Sat, except in the NE and N-central parts of the basin where mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Expect stronger winds to pulse off the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sat. Looking ahead, fresh to strong NE winds and building seas will follow a cold front moving across the northern Gulf Sun and Sun night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Developing low pressure N of Puerto Rico is inducing scattered moderate convection over the far NE basin over waters near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. W of this feature, high pressure building SW from the western Atlantic is supporting strong NE winds through Windward Passage, S of Cuba, and between Haiti and Jamaica. Locally rough seas are impacting these waters. The gradient between this building high and the Colombian low is leading to similar strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia. Elsewhere over the western and central Caribbean, moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas prevail, with gentle trades and moderate seas in the east. For the forecast, high pressure over the west-central Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will maintain fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough seas off the coast of Colombia overnight. Fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas will prevail south of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola overnight as well. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin late in the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is just N of Puerto Rico generating scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms from 18N to 22N between 58W and 68W. Low pressure of 1012 mb has formed this afternoon near 20N64W in association with this feature. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft are found near and behind the aforementioned frontal boundary in a zone N of Hispaniola and Cuba, through the Turks and Caicos, to 25N, between 64W and the Bahamas. Farther N and W, winds and seas gradually taper off to light to gentle and slight, respectively, offshore NE Florida, as high pressure settles southward from offshore the Mid-Atlantic U.S. E of the front, high pressure of 1027 mb located NW of the Madeira Islands dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. Fresh to strong N to NE winds up to 30 kt, and seas up to 11 ft in long period NW swell prevail N of 20N and E of 20W, including the Canary Islands. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate dominate the tropical Atlantic, S of 20N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front reaching from 28N55W to 1014 mb low pressure north of Puerto Rico will weaken into a broad trough through tonight. The trough will drift west toward Hispaniola on Wed, and the southeastern Bahamas on Thu, then dissipate Fri. Strong NE winds and rough seas will persist west of the trough through mid week, with conditions gradually improving thereafter as the trough weakens and leaves weak high pressure over the region. Looking ahead, strong N winds and building seas will follow a front moving off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night.