Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Mar 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1610 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the border of Sierra Leone and Liberia near 06N10W and continues southwestward to 03N13W, where the ITCZ begins and continues to 01S49W along the coast of Brazil. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 10W and 27W. GULF OF AMERICA... 1020 mb high pressure centered in the E Gulf provides for gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds and 2-4 ft seas across the basin. For the forecast, high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will maintain gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas across the western Gulf, and light to gentle breezes over the eastern Gulf through mid-week. A trough over the Bay of Campeche will support occasional moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula mainly at night through mid-week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A trough extends from SE Puerto Rico to 1011 mb low pressure near 13N74W to the coast of Colombia near 11N74W. Fresh to locally strong NE winds persist north of the surface trough, including within the Mona Passage, Windward Passage, and lee of Cuba. Seas are 4-7 ft in these regions. Elsewhere in the western Caribbean, NE winds are gentle to moderate with 4-6 ft seas. In the central and eastern Caribbean south and east of the trough, trades are light to gentle with 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, building high pressure over the western Atlantic will support fresh NE winds south of Cuba, the Windward Passage and just south of Hispaniola into Mon night. As the high pressure moves slightly eastward Mon, fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will start to pulse nightly offshore Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 1006 mb low pressure near 32N57W to eastern Puerto Rico. Satellite scatterometer indicates strong to near-gale force SE winds north of 22N and east of the front to 52W. North of 25N and west of the front to 65W, fresh to strong NW winds are evident on satellite scatterometer data. Seas are 8-11 ft north of 22N between 50W and 70W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 25N between 52W and 57W. In the eastern Atlantic, seas of 8-11 ft are analyzed across the basin east of 45W in NE swell generated by a weakening 999 mb low near the Canary Islands. Seas range from 12-14 ft north of 27N between 20W and 28W. Winds in the far NE Atlantic remain near fresh speeds along the southern side of the low pressure. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail across the Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds and rough seas on both sides of the aforementioned cold front north of 25N will continue to affect the offshore waters from west to east into early Mon as the front continues to move eastward. The cold front is forecast to reach from 31N55W to Virgin Islands by this evening, then will move into the central Atlantic Mon through Tue while gradually dissipating. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to enter the offshore waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda Mon night into Tue, followed by fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very seas. These marine conditions are forecast to affect most of the waters north of 28N into mid-week before starting to diminish as the front lifts northward.