Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Dec 1 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A large area of strong E winds and seas of 9 to 13 ft extend across the central Atlantic from 18N to 30N, E of 60W. These conditions are being generated by the pressure gradient between Azores high pressure and a robust surface trough that extends along 57W from 11N to 25N. The highest seas are associated with strong winds in a corridor near the apex of the trough, from 20N to 26N between 45W and 57W. The trough will continue to move to the W-NW at 15 kt and pass north of the Leeward Islands by mid week. Winds will diminish slightly through the period, but given the long fetch and duration of the winds, this pattern will support seas building to 12 to 13 ft through today over an area from 22N to 28N between 45W and 58W. Winds will be moderate to fresh by Wed, but 8-10 ft seas will persist across tropical Atlantic waters east of 60W through late week. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 12N16W and continues to 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to 06N35W to 06N54W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 10N and east of 47W. GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends from the Florida panhandle to Tamaulipas. Strong NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas follow the front. A few showers are evident along and behind the front. A surface trough remains in place over the central Gulf along 88W from 22N to 27N. Gentle to moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the Gulf. For the forecast, a stationary front extends from the Florida panhandle to Tamaulipas, followed by fresh to occasionally strong N-NE winds and seas to 8 ft. These winds and seas will diminish later today. Low pressure may develop along the frontal boundary in the NW Gulf today into tonight before the system lifts quickly northeastward, resulting in fresh to strong N winds and locally rough seas behind the boundary. Winds and seas will diminish late Tue. Thereafter, the front will move southeastward farther into the basin, but then stall over the south-central Gulf through mid- week, as another low forms over South Texas. Looking ahead, another cold front will enter the western waters late Thu, reaching from SE Louisiana to Tamaulipas Fri morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Low level trade wind convergence along with modest upper level divergence is supporting a few showers and thunderstorms off Panama and Nicaragua. High pressure north of the area over the western Atlantic is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas east of 80W. Gentle to moderate NE breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure centered north of the Caribbean Sea will support moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the basin through the forecast period. Winds and seas will lessen a bit on Tue into Wed as the high pressure departs eastward, but another ridge will build in soon thereafter. A broad surface trough is approaching the eastern Caribbean and will continue westward over the next few days. Rough seas affecting the water passages of the NE Caribbean will persist through the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on Significant Swell in the Central Atlantic. A cold front is approaching the waters off NE Florida and a few showers and thunderstorms are evident ahead of the boundaru. Farther east, a surface trough is analyzed along 68W, north of 25N. Showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted east of the trough to 62W and north of 26N. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are occurring west of 74W and north of 26N and also south of 24N and east of 74W. As discussed in the Special Features section, a surface trough extends along 57W from 11N to 25N, moving west at 15. Aside from the winds and seas described in the Special Features section, moderate to fresh breezes and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front entering the waters off NE Florida is expected to stall today, before lifting northward tonight. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas north of 28N and west of 74W tonight and Tue as low pressure moves from the northern Gulf to the Carolinas. Looking ahead, these southerly winds will shift SW Tue night into Wed, north of 28N ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Tue night. This front will reach from near Bermuda to South Florida on Wed, and from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Thu. Meanwhile, strong winds and rough seas will accompany a trough moving westward into the waters NE of the Leeward Islands through Tue. Then, the trough will pass just N of Puerto Rico on Wed.