Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Dec 30 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from south Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Scatterometer data shows strong gale force winds up to 45 kt off Veracruz, Mexico, where very rough seas to 19 ft are confirmed by a recent altimeter pass. Prolonged gale force winds and significant very rough seas will persist over the western Bay of Campeche through late today. Seas will peak around 21 ft off Veracruz today. Conditions will improve from north to south by midweek. Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A cold front extending from a storm-force low north of the area, enters the discussion waters near 31N31W and extends to 18N55W, where it becomes a stationary front that extends northwestward toward the Bahamas. Large N swell generated from this system is producing very rough seas greater than 12 ft over the forecast waters north of 24N between 33W and 54W. These very rough seas will shift eastward while gradually subsiding from south to north through the week. Rough seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of 16N between 26W and 63W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 09N13W and continues to 06N16W. The ITCZ extends from 06N16W to 03N28W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is within 100 nm of the ITCZ/monsoon trough between 12W and 38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above about a gale warning in the SW Gulf. A strong cold front extends from south Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Aside from the gale force winds, fresh to strong winds are N of the front and E of 90W, with strong to near gale winds N of the front W of 90W. SE of the front, gentle to moderate winds prevail. Rough to very rough seas prevail behind the front with slight seas ahead of the front. For the forecast, gale force N to NW winds and very rough seas peaking near 21 ft will prevail in the western Bay of Campeche through late tonight, in the wake of a cold front sweeping over the southern Gulf of America. Fresh to strong N winds and rough seas occurring over much of the basin behind the front will slowly diminish from north to south this afternoon through Wed morning. High pressure is expected to build over the basin on Wed, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas region-wide through Thu. Looking ahead, fresh W to SW winds may develop over the northern Gulf by late week, ahead of a low pressure system moving across the southern United States. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds and seas of 6-8 ft prevail over the south central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-7 ft are in the north central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E winds will pulse in the south-central Caribbean into early Thu as low pressure prevails over northern Colombia. Locally rough seas will be possible offshore of northern Colombia into early Wed. Elsewhere, a cold front moving through the southern Gulf of America will enter the northwestern Caribbean by this afternoon, supporting fresh to locally strong N winds and rough seas from the Yucatan Channel through the northwestern basin through Wed. Following the front, high pressure will build over the Gulf of America, supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds over the central and western Caribbean through late week. Over the Atlantic waters, rough seas in N swell will prevail through late Thu, with seas subsiding by Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for details on a significant swell event in the central Atlantic. Near the cold front mentioned in the Special Features section, scattered moderate convection is seen along and roughly 200 nm ahead of the front. Fresh to strong SW winds are also ahead of the front, generally N of 25N and E of the front to about 25W. Fresh to strong NW winds are seen behind the front N of 27N and E of 50W. Outside of the area in the Special Features section, a cold front extends from 31N70W to south Florida. Fresh to strong winds are N of 27N and E of the front to 58W, with fresh to strong NW winds W of the front. Seas over these waters are in the 6-8 ft range. A 1018 mb high is centered near 27N55W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the front. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-8 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in N to NW swell associated with a cold front in the central tropical Atlantic, east of 65W, will slowly subside from west to east through Wed morning. A cold front extending from 31N70W southwestward through South Florida will progress eastward through midweek, supporting fresh to locally strong SW winds and rough seas ahead of the front, generally north of 26N, through Thu. Moderate to fresh NW winds and rough seas in NW swell are expected in the wake of the front into Wed. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong W winds and rough seas may develop off the coast of northern Florida on Thu as a cold front passes north of the waters. Otherwise, weak high pressure building over the western tropical Atlantic will support moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas over the rest of the waters for late week.