Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Nov 26 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1648 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough extends from 07N12W to 07N16W. An ITCZ extends from 07N16W to 04N50W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 04N-09N east of 31W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and western Panama. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends from the Florida Panhandle to S Texas. A prefrontal trough and the front are supporting numerous moderate convection over the area. A surface trough across the Bay of Campeche is supporting a cluster of moderate convection. Fresh to strong NE winds are found over the NW Gulf along with seas 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail with 1 to 3 ft seas. For the forecast, a stronger cold front will reach the NW Gulf before noon and steadily sweep across the Gulf. The merged cold fronts should extend from near Tampa to Tampico tonight, from the Florida Straits to near Veracruz Thu night, and then exit the Gulf to the southeast by Fri morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue along and ahead of the cold front. Fresh to strong NE winds will follow in the wake of the cold front with conditions improving by Fri night. Fresh to strong return flow should set up in the NW Gulf Fri night and Sat. Looking ahead, the next cold front may emerge from the Texas coast Sat night and progress southeastward across the W Gulf on Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection is depicted over the Gulf of Honduras. Otherwise, a tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressures over NW Colombia/SW Caribbean Sea is forcing fresh to strong trades with locally near gale and seas of 8-12 ft across most of the Caribbean. Trades in the E and NW Caribbean are moderate to fresh with seas 4-7 ft. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and lower pressure over NW Colombia will sustain fresh to strong trades across all but NW portions of the basin, with locally near gale winds off Colombia through Thu morning, then gradually diminishing winds and seas through Fri afternoon as the high shifts eastward. A cold front will slowly enter the NW Caribbean on Fri afternoon, followed by fresh to strong NE winds. The front should stall from central Cuba to the southern Yucatan Peninsula by Sat morning, then gradually wash out over the NW Caribbean by Sat evening, with conditions improving during the remainder of the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak frontal boundary extends from 31N40W to 26N59W with moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6-9 ft along the front east of 41W. A prefrontal trough is present from 31N37W to 24N45W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring along these features. The Bermuda High to the north of the front is helping to sustain fresh to locally strong NE winds and 5-7 ft seas in the approach to the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh NE winds with seas 5 to 7 ft seas prevail across the tropical Atlantic. Farther east, NE winds are fresh to strong with seas 6-9 ft within 60 NM of the coast of Morocco. Elsewhere, winds are moderate of weaker with seas 4-7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh NE winds along the aforementioned front east of 65W will diminish later today, as the front dissipates. A 1031 mb Bermuda High to the north of the front will help to sustain fresh to strong E-NE winds in the approach to the Windward Passage through tonight before diminishing on Thu. Tonight, a new cold front will emerge off of the NE Florida coast, bringing with it fresh to strong N to NE winds behind the front. The cold front should extend from 31N72W to the Florida Straits Thu night, from 31N63W to the central Bahamas by Fri night, and then dissipate from 31N57W to the central Bahamas by Sat night. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of the front is forecast to bring increasing NE winds across much of the forecast area Sat, gradually diminishing from west to east Sun.