Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Nov 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1623 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... North-Central Atlantic Gale Warning: a strong cold front extends from 31N75W to South Florida. Strong SW winds are ahead of the front, with fresh NW winds behind it. The front is expected to reach from near 31N66W to the southeastern Bahamas by Sat morning, and from near 31N55W to 25N65W and stationary to eastern Cuba by Sun morning. Southwest winds ahead of the front are forecast to reach gale force late tonight into Sat N of 29N. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 11N15W to 07N20W. The ITCZ extends from 07N20W to 04N36W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 05N to 08N between 20W and 51W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends from Naples, Florida to just offshore Tampico, Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas are north of the front. Locally fresh winds and moderate seas are off Veracruz in the far southwest Gulf. Light to gentle winds, and slight seas, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold front will move quickly SE and out of the basin later today. Moderate to fresh N winds will gradually diminish in the wake of the front as high pressure builds southward into the region. Sat night into Sun, fresh to strong E winds will develop across the northern and central Gulf ahead of the next cold front, that will move off Texas Mon morning. This front cross the basin through night, bringing fresh to strong winds behind it. Winds to near gale-force area possible in the far NE Gulf early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds, and moderate seas, prevail over the waters east of 76W. Light to gentle winds, and slight to moderate seas, are noted elsewhere. A surface trough extends from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is depicted along and east of the trough, also impacting portions of central and eastern Cuba, and Jamaica. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades over the central and eastern Caribbean will diminish tonight. A cold front will enter the NW waters today. Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are expected behind this front over the northwestern Caribbean Sat into Sun night. Trade winds are likely strengthen again over the south central Caribbean early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N75W to South Florida. Strong SW winds are ahead of the front, with fresh NW winds behind it. A pre- frontal through from the Central Bahamas through Central Cuba is inducing scattered to numerous thunderstorms to its east, impacting the central and eastern Cuba, the SE Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is ahead of the trough, generally S of 28N east of the front to 63W. Farther east, high pressure generally prevails, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 33N35W. Light to gentle winds cover the waters north of 24N between 35W and 50W. Fresh winds are found over the waters south of 13N between 35W and 60W. Gentle to moderate winds cover the remainder of the discussion waters. Seas are mainly moderate across the discussion waters, except reaching locally rough west of the cold front. For the forecast west of 55W, the front is expected to reach from near 31N66W to the southeastern Bahamas by Sat morning, and from near 31N55W to 25N65W and stationary to eastern Cuba by Sun morning. SW winds ahead of the front are forecast to reach gale force late tonight into Sat N of 29N. The cold front portion will shift east of 55W late Sun night while the stationary portion weakens. A building Bermuda High will tighten the pressure gradient and support fresh to strong northeast winds south of 27N west of 65W Mon and Mon night. The fresh to strong winds will expand northward in coverage Tue and Tue night.