Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Dec 31 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Large N swell generated from a gale force low N of the area is producing very rough seas greater than 12 ft over the forecast waters north of 26N between 34W and 46W. These very rough seas will shift eastward while gradually subsiding from south to north through late week. Rough seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of 14N between 24W and 60W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N12.5W and continues to 07N15W. The ITCZ extends from 07N15W to 04N33W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 19W and 36W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure is building into the Gulf basin. The gale force winds off Veracruz have diminished, with strong to near gale winds, and very rough seas of 12 to 15 ft, currently over these waters. Fresh to strong winds are over the SW Gulf elsewhere S of 21N, with seas of 8-11 ft. Fresh winds and rough seas are S of 24N. N of 24N, moderate to fresh winds and seas of 4-7 ft prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds and rough seas over the central and southern basin will diminish this morning. High pressure will build over the basin today, with moderate or weaker winds and slight seas region-wide through Thu. Fresh W to SW winds may develop over the northern Gulf by late week, ahead of a low pressure system moving across the southern United States. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from central Cuba to Belize. Moderate to fresh winds, and rough seas, are W of the front. Fresh to locally strong winds and moderate to locally rough seas prevail over the southern Caribbean between 65W and 77W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds, and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds will pulse in the south-central Caribbean into early Thu. A cold front over the northwestern Caribbean will weaken and eventually dissipate over the northwestern basin by late week. Fresh N winds and rough seas will prevail in the wake of the front, from the Yucatan Channel through the northwestern basin today. Over the Atlantic waters, rough seas in N swell will subside by the end of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for information on significant swell causing very rough seas in the central Atlantic. Aside from the areas discussed in the special features section above, a cold front extends from 31N65W to central Cuba. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of the front N of 25N. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 609 ft are W of the front. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-9 ft are E of the front to 60W. Another cold front extends from 31N25.5W to 20N42W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is N of 27N within 90 nm east of the front. Fresh winds are N of 25N within 60 nm east of the front, with fresh to strong winds N of 28N W of the front to 40W. A 1022 mb high is centered near 26N50W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas in N to NW swell east of 60W will subside early today. The cold front extending from 31N65W to central Cuba will progress eastward. Fresh to locally strong SW winds and rough seas will prevail ahead of the front, generally north of 26N, through tonight. Fresh to locally strong W winds and rough seas may develop off the coast of northern Florida on Thu as a cold front passes north of the waters. Otherwise, weak high pressure will build over the western tropical Atlantic, with moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas over the rest of the waters for late week.