Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Feb 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: At 1500 UTC, a strong cold front extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida, to Veracruz, Mexico. Gale force winds are ongoing offshore of Tampico, Mexico, and spreading southward behind the front to offshore of Veracruz, Mexico. Seas are analyzed to range from 12-14 ft. The cold front will continue to move quickly through the Gulf today and tonight. Gale force winds will continue offshore Veracruz, Mexico, through Mon morning, with seas building to 12-16 ft over much of the southern Gulf, including waters with winds below gale force. Winds and seas should gradually subside from NW to SE Mon morning through Tue as high pressure builds across the Gulf region behind the cold front. W Atlantic Gale Warning: The same strong cold front described above currently moving through the Gulf of America recently exited the southeast US coast and northern Florida. Strong to gale force NW winds and rapidly building seas will prevail behind the front beginning later this afternoon through early Mon. Seas during this time will build to 12-15 ft. The front is expected to reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba Mon morning, and from 31N60W to the NW coast of the Dominican Republic Tue morning, while weakening. While winds are forecast to subside below gale force on Monday, strong to near-gale NW winds will persist over much of the western Atlantic until Tue afternoon, with seas remaining in the 12-15 ft range. Conditions are expected to improve thereafter. Please read the latest NWS High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits Africa near 07N13W and extends to 04N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 05N between 35W and 45W. GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about a Gale Warning. At 1500 UTC, a strong cold front extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida, to Veracruz, Mexico. Outside of the GALE WARNING, strong to near-gale force NW winds prevail across the basin behind the front, as depicted in surface observations and scatterometer data. Seas are 8-12 ft, locally to 13 ft in the central Gulf, and building. Scattered moderate convection is along the front. For the forecast, the cold front will move quickly southeastward across the basin through tonight. Strong to near-gale northerly winds and rough to very rough seas will prevail behind the front. Gale- force winds will prevail offshore of Tampico will diminish by this evening, with gale- force winds offshore of Veracruz this afternoon and tonight. Winds and seas will gradually subside from NW to SE Mon through Tue in the wake of the front. High pressure will build in the wake of the front and shift E-SE across the Gulf Tue through Wed. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop across the W Gulf midweek ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Thu evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... As the subtropical ridge retreats to the central and eastern Atlantic in response to the approaching strong cold front, the pressure gradient has weakened in the south-central Caribbean, allowing for trades to diminish to mainly fresh speeds in the region. Seas remain near 8-10 ft. Elsewhere in the central and eastern Caribbean, moderate to fresh trades prevail per the latest satellite scatterometer data, with 4-7 ft seas. In the western Caribbean, light to gentle winds and slight seas are analyzed. A subtle trough is across Jamaica and the southern Windward Passage, and producing a few showers. For the forecast, fresh trade winds across the south- central Caribbean will diminish overnight. Rough seas will linger S of 13N and E of the Lesser Antilles will subside today. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean tonight. The front will reach from NW Haiti to near the Nicaragua-Costa Rica border by Tue morning, then stall and dissipate from central Dominican Republic to SE Nicaragua midweek. Expect strong N winds and rapidly building seas behind this front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about a the W Atlantic Gale Warning. The strong cold front just entered the far NW waters at 1500 UTC, and will bring deteriorating winds and seas to the western Atlantic today as described in the GALE WARNING section. Elsewhere, 1020 mb high pressure is centered near 26N62W and 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 24N49W. These two highs extend a large ridge axis across the basin along 25N, and support moderate to locally fresh trades south of 20N and light to gentle winds north of 20N. A surface trough parallels the African coast along 18W. Seas across the basin are generally 4-7 ft, except south of 10N and west of 40W where seas range from 8-9 ft in patches of fresh trades. For the forecast west of 55W, strong to gale force NW winds and rapidly building seas are expected behind the cold front through early Mon. The front is expected to reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba Mon morning, and from 31N60W to the NW coast of the Dominican Republic Tue morning, while weakening. The front will stall from 30N55W to the central Dominican Republic early Wed, then drift W and dissipate through Thu.