Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Feb 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warnings/Significant Swell... A family of cold fronts are analyzed across the W Atlantic, mainly W of 67W. Gale force winds prevail N of 26N between 65W-75W. Rough seas are noted N of 24N and W of 64W. These conditions will follow the fronts through Sat as they merge and the new boundary moves E. A low pressure system is expected to rapidly deepen across the W Atlantic tonight as it tracks eastward, producing a large area of gale-force winds mainly N of 27N. Rough to very rough seas will accompany these winds today, then as the low deepens even more and moves NE, seas in our area are expected to peak to 30 ft N of 28N between 54W-65W. Once the low has pulled farther northeastward into the north-central Atlantic, wind conditions should gradually improve starting Sun night, while the large and dangerous swells persist into early next week. Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event... Rough seas to 14 ft in large NW swell, north of 25N and east of 40W will continue to slide eastward through early this morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on these events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 06N10W to 00N13W. The ITCZ continues from 00N13W to 06S32W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1026 mb high centered over the western Gulf is supporting the western and central Gulf with gentle to moderate N to ENE winds and moderate seas. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas prevail for the SE Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas will diminish this afternoon across the southern portion of the basin as high pressure builds across the area. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow another cold front that will move across the eastern Gulf Fri night/Sat. High pressure will build over the basin once again in the wake of the front and will remain in control of the weather pattern through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weakening cold front curves southwestward from eastern Cuba to over northern Belize and Mexico. Scattered showers are seen up to 150 nm southeast of this front. Fresh to strong northerly winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are trapped behind the cold over the northwestern basin. Strong to near-gale northerly winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft are found at the southwest of of the basin. For the forecast, the weakening cold front will stall from the eastern Dominican Republic to central Panama Sat, then will dissipate by Sat. Strong to near-gale N winds with rough seas will follow the front today, diminishing to fresh to strong and prevailing through Sat. Expect fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas between Colombia and Hispaniola early next week as high pressure builds north of the area after multiple frontal passages. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warnings and Significant Swell areas. A cold front stretches from 31N66W to 22N76W. A second cold front extends from 31N69W to 24N75W. Scattered moderate convection is noted up to 150 nm east of the first front. Farther east, a weakening cold front extends westward from near the Canary Islands to near 22N32W, then as a stationary front to 25N52W. Outside the Gale Warning, strong to near-gale SW to NW winds and rough seas are noted north of 24N and west of 65W. To the east, north of 20N between 35W and 60W, moderate to fresh southerly winds and rough seas are evident. For the tropical Atlantic from 04N to 20N and west of 35W, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas prevail. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds with moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, gale force winds and rough seas prevail near of a pair of cold fronts that extend across the W Atlantic. The fronts will merge today and the new boundary will extend from 25N55W to eastern Hispaniola Sat morning, then weaken from 22N55W to the Leeward Islands by early Sun. A reinforcing front will move off the northeast Florida coast early Sat, and reach from 31N55W to the southern Bahamas and central Cuba by early Sun, then stall and dissipate along 22N through early next week. Strong to gale- force winds will follow the second front north of 27N this weekend. Wave heights will gradually subside from west to east early next week.