Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri May 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 30W, south of 12N, moving westward at about 10 kt. The wave is in a very dry environment suppressing the shower and thunderstorm activity. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 51W, south of 13N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. A few showers are noted near the wave axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W, then curves southwestward to 06N21W. The ITCZ extends from 06N21W to 02N29W, and then from 02N31W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is present south of 07N and west of 12W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Weak high pressure dominates the Gulf waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas, except for 4 ft seas in the eastern Bay of Campeche. Dry continental air maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions. For the forecast, a weak cold front will dissipate over the NE Gulf Fri. Southeast winds will increase to moderate to fresh over the western basin this weekend as the pressure gradient increases between Atlantic high pressure and deepening low pressure over Texas. These winds will persist into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak cold front is entering the NW Caribbean Sea, supporting some showers over western and central Cuba and nearby waters. Broad high pressure north of the islands forces strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds and rough seas in the south- central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the north- central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the forecast waters, pulsing to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at night Sat through Tue. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters into Mon, then begin to subside. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the tropical western Atlantic near 31N69W and continues southwestward to the NW Bahamas and western Cuba. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident ahead of the frontal boundary, especially north of 28N and west of 63W. Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas of 6-9 ft are occurring ahead of the front to 60W and north of 28N. A strong subtropical ridge near and western of the Azores maintains fairly tranquil weather conditions in the rest of the basin. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are noted from 14N to 28N and east of 25N. Moderate to locally strong easterly winds and rough seas dominate most of the rest of the central and eastern Atlantic, especially south of 25N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will weaken Fri then dissipate Sat night from E of Bermuda to NE of the Bahamas. Fresh to strong S to SW winds ahead of this front, and associated rough seas, will remain N of 28N, and move N of the area by Fri night as the front weakens. Thereafter, mainly tranquil marine conditions with moderate easterly winds will prevail through early next week.