Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sun May 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2250 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A late-season cold front extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico. Latest scatterometer data indicate strong to gale force northerly winds in the wake of the front, with the strongest winds in the Tampico area. Satellite altimeter and moored buoy data indicates seas ranging from 8 to 11 ft. The cold front will reach from SW Florida to the Bay of Campeche on Sun morning, then stall and gradually wash out by Mon morning. The gales will slide along the Mexican coast near Veracruz this evening, before diminishing Sun afternoon. Seas will build to 12 or 13 ft in strongest winds. Marine conditions will improve by early Mon, with ridging gradually building back over the basin into early Tue. Currently, a wide band of showers and thunderstorms is related to front over Florida and the NE Gulf. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are likely within this convective band. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...TROPICAL WAVES... The first tropical wave of the season is analyzed along 33W, from 12N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern tip of the wave axis S of 04N between 30W and 35W. The wave continues to move through hostile dry conditions which inhibit other impacts. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through Sierra Leone near 08N12W, then continues SW to near 03N18W. The ITCZ extends from 03N18W to NE Brazil near 02S46W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is S of 01N between 30W and 43W. GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a Gale Warning for the western Gulf. As referenced above, a cold front is moving across the Gulf waters and extends from near Tampa Bay, Florida to near Veracruz, Mexico, with strong to gale force winds and rough seas behind it. An active band of showers and thunderstorms is over Florida and the NE Gulf. Ahead of the front, moderate to fresh S to SW winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, please, see the Special Features section for more details. Looking ahead, moderate to fresh SE to S return flow will set up in the W Gulf Tue night and Wed. Another cold front may reach the NW Gulf by Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a 1019 mb high pressure in the Atlantic located near 25N58W and a 1009 mb low pressure over northern Colombia is sustaining fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds are noted elsewhere across the basin per the latest satellite scatterometer data. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are within the strongest winds in the central Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft are observed elsewhere. Convection is flare-up over the Yucatan Peninsula. A large area of showers and thunderstorms is affecting the SW Caribbean, particularly south of 12N, between 75W and 84W. This includes coastal regions of Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, and southern Nicaragua. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are likely in this area. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean and moderate to fresh trades over the remainder of the E and central Caribbean for the next several days. The SE fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras will diminish on Sun as a weakening cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel. After the cold front dissipates near the Yucatan Channel on Mon, expect SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras to increase again Tue through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front has emerged off of the SE United States coast and extends from a 1005 mb low pressure located N of the area near 34N73W to north-central Florida. A wide band of showers and thunderstorms is related to front. Mainly fresh winds are observed ahead and behind the front N of 27N. High pressure dominates the remainder of the forecast waters, with a 1020 mb center located just W of the Canary Islands, and a 1019 mb center situated near 25N58W. Its associated ridge extends westward reaching the Bahamas, South Florida and the Greater Antilles. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over W Africa is promoting an area of moderate to fresh N winds and moderate to rough seas between W Africa and the Cabo Verde Islands. Moderate to locally fresh trades are seen across the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Elsewhere E of 70W, light to gentle winds are noted. W of 70W and SE of the aforementioned cold front, moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds are blowing. Moderate seas dominate the entire forecast region. For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned cold front will reach from near 31N72W to the N Bahamas on Sun morning, and from 31N60W to a low forming near 27N74W Mon morning. The low will ride along the frontal boundary to be just south of Bermuda Tue morning with the front extending southwestward to the central Bahamas. The front should be dissipating by Wed morning. Expect fresh to strong SW winds south of the front tonight and Sun, followed by fresh to strong NE winds north of the front on Mon and Tue. Looking ahead, conditions should become quiet Tue night through Thu.