Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Aug 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 29W, south of 21N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted along the wave axis. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 73.5W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near the Windward Passage and over the waters between Jamaica, Cuba, and Haiti as well as in the lee of Cuba. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W and dives southwestward to 10N46W. The ITCZ extends from 10N46W to 10N51W. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the ITCZ, as well as from 07N to 10N between 30W and 37W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Divergent flow aloft is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across much of the eastern Gulf. A 1015 mb surface high pressure is centered near 25N85W. This pattern is supporting fresh to locally strong W to SW winds and 3-6 ft seas off the northern Gulf coast, and gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 1-3 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf, promoting gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. The exceptions will be fresh NE to E winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly through the period, as well as the far northern Gulf, where an inland cold front will induce moderate to fresh W to SW winds through Monday. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will continue over much of the NE Gulf N of 25N and E of 90W into the upcoming week as an upper-level trough and a cold front approach the Gulf coast. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active over Costa Rica, Panama, and southern Nicaragua. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge situated in the central Atlantic and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustain fresh to strong E winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean. Winds are near gale-force in the Gulf of Venezuela, confirmed by scatterometer data from earlier this evening. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas prevail across much of the eastern Caribbean Sea. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, an enhanced pressure gradient across the Caribbean will favor fresh to strong trades over the central basin through much of the week ahead. Fresh to strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras at night Mon through Thu. A tropical wave, currently over the central Caribbean near 73W, is accompanied by scattered moderate convection near the Windward Passage and the nearby waters between Jamaica, Cuba, and Hispaniola as well as in the lee of Cuba. The wave will continue quickly moving westward across the remainder of the basin through Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Divergence aloft associated with a couple of upper-level troughs result in scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over much of the area north of 25N and west of 60W. The remainder of the subtropical and tropical Atlantic is influenced by a 1026 mb high pressure area centered near 33N54W. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4-7 ft seas across much of the basin. Fresh to strong trades continue pulsing along the northern coast of Hispaniola. In the waters offshore the SE US coast, fresh to strong SW winds are occurring in advance of a cold front currently inland. For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge extending from the central Atlantic to the Straits of Florida will change little through Tue, then lift to N of 31N on Wed. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a frontal boundary just NW of the forecast waters will continue to support fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front, along with scattered showers and thunderstorms over the majority of the area into the upcoming week. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night through the period.