Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Apr 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1645 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A frontal boundary, with a two surface lows along it, is slowly moving eastward. Low-level convergence and lift near the boundary and upper-level diffluence is causing widespread showers and thunderstorms north of 24N between 64W and 73W. This activity is mainly on the east side of the boundary, which currently extends from a low near 32N67W to another low near 28N72W to the central Bahamas. Gale-force northeast winds are occurring behind the boundary due to the tight pressure gradient between the front and high pressure over the northeastern U.S. Very rough seas have been generated by these gales, and seas of up to 18 ft are occurring in the warning area. The very rough seas will linger across portions of the waters N of the Bahamas into Thu night, with rough seas in N swell impacting much of the waters N of 25N into the weekend. East Atlantic Large Swell: Long-period NW to N swell continues propagating southward across portions of the far eastern Atlantic, causing maximum seas of 12 to 14 ft over the subtropics east of about 40W. Rough seas cover a much broader area N of 10N and E of 55W. The swell will only very slowly decay, and seas of 12 ft or greater will reach as far south as 15N by Thu. Seas should fall below 12 ft Thu night, although rough seas will likely persist into the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both the West Atlantic Gale Warning and the significant swell in the East Atlantic. East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the forecast zone of Madeira. The forecast calls for NW gales to 40 kt, with severe gusts during the next several hours. Very rough seas in NW swell are also reaching the islands. For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and continues SW to 04N20W. The ITCZ extends west-southwestward from 04N20W to 00N30W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03S to the equator between 30W and 40W and from 01N to 05N between 12W and 18W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak area of low pressure and associated trough over the southeastern Gulf and the Florida Straits is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Similiar activity is occurring along another trough over the far western Gulf, near the coasts of Mexico and southern Texas. Winds and seas are highest today (up to 30 kt and 10 ft) over the northeast and north- central waters, where a tight pressure gradient exists between strong high pressure over the northeast U.S. and the troughing over the southeastern Gulf. Winds and seas are lightest over the southwestern waters. For the forecast, the trough over the southeastern waters will drift slowly eastward and move out of the basin by Thu. However, strong to near gale-force NE winds and rough seas will continue over the northeast Gulf for another day or so. As high pressure builds southwestward into the northern Gulf Fri through the weekend, moderate to fresh E to SE winds will become established through the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection has been persisiting near Jamaica, western Haiti, and eastern Cuba, primarily associated with an upper-level jet. The remainder of the region is experienceing generally fair weather supported by dry air in the mid- and upper-levels of the atmosphere. Winds are strongest, up to 25 kt, over the usual location, the south-central portion of the area off the coasts of Colombia and Venezuela, where the pressure gradient is tight between low pressure over Colombia and high pressure northeast of the area. These winds are causing elevated seas, up to about 8 ft. Winds and seas are lightest over the western portion of the area. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail over the central and eastern basin into Thu, with gentle to moderate winds to the west. Strong high pressure will then build southward from the western Atlantic, with a tightening pressure gradient leading to increasing winds, especially in the south-central basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the portions of the western Atlantic. Meteo-France also has a gale warning in effect for portions of the far eastern Atlantic. Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on these hazardous weather events. The remainder of the basin is domninated by strong surface high pressure, which along with dry air aloft, is supporting fair weather across the majority of the subtropical and tropical Atlantic. Most areas are experiencing moderate to fresh winds, but a zone of strong easterly winds extend N of 20N and E of 40W, where some significant northerly swell is leading to very rough seas. Details on the swell and its forecast propagation can be found in the Special Features section above. Moderate seas dominate the remainder of the Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, please refer to the Special Features Western Atlantic Gale Warning section for forecast details related to the marine conditions caused by the previously mentioned frontal boundary.