Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Oct 16 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1636 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Large Swell: Northerly swell generated from a developing storm force low over the Atlantic waters N of the discussion area will generate large northerly swell. Very rough seas, with seas greater than 12 ft, generated from the swell will propagate into the discussion waters between 65W and 70W on Friday. The area of 12 ft seas will spread SE, covering the waters N of 27N between 50W and 68W by Sat night. The swell will then start to subside over the discussion waters, falling below 12 ft Sun night. Seas with this swell will peak near 18 ft over the waters N of 30N between 55W and 60W Sat. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 33W S of 15N, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 28W and 37W. The axis of a central Atlantic tropical wave is near 45W S of 14N, and moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 37W and 52W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and extends SW to near 06N22W. The ITCZ continues from 06N22W to 06N28.5W. Aside from convection noted in the tropical waves section, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 13N and east of 28W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough extends from the central Gulf SE to the Yucatan channel. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of the trough. High pressure dominates the remainder of the Gulf waters. Gentle to moderate winds are noted E of 92W, with light to gentle winds W of 92W. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range E of 92W and 1-2 ft W of 90W. For the forecast, a ridge will dominate the Gulf region, resulting in gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from the Atlantic waters across Hispaniola and Jamaica. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of the front. A weak pressure gradient prevails across the Caribbean waters. Gentle to moderate winds are over the far eastern Caribbean with light to gentle winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 2-4 ft range in the far eastern Caribbean, and 2 ft or less elsewhere. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the basin through Sat. A tropical wave will move across the tropical Atlantic waters late this weekend with fresh to strong winds, and rough seas accompanying the wave. The tropical wave is forecast to enter the Caribbean waters by early next week, bringing fresh winds and rough seas over the eastern Caribbean waters. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for further details on large swell impacting the area Fri through the weekend. A cold front extends from 31N55W SW to Hispaniola. Scattered moderate to strong convection is along and within 150 nm east of the front. Fresh to strong SW winds are N of 23N and E of the front to 45W. Gentle to moderate winds are W of the front. Elsewhere N of 20N, high pressure dominates the Atlantic discussion waters anchored by a 1018 mb high centered near 23N28W. The 1012 mb remnant low of Lorenzo is centered near 25N39W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the low. The pressure gradient between the high and Lorenzo remnants is supporting fresh to strong winds over the waters N of 25N between 25W and 38W. Light winds are around the high center. Moderate to locally fresh winds are noted elsewhere. Seas of 8-12 ft prevail over the waters N of 25N between 25W and 75W. Elsewhere, seas are in the 4-7 ft range. For the forecast W of 55W, a series of cold fronts will move across the forecast waters through Sat. High pressure will then build in the wake of the fronts. Fresh to strong winds are expected across the waters N of 25N through at least Sat before winds diminish. The fronts will usher in northerly swell across the forecast waters. Rough seas will cover the waters N of 25N through the end of the week, before spreading southward to cover much of the waters E of 70W by Sat. Seas will then subside from west to east the remainder of the weekend into early next week. Very rough seas will move into the waters N of 27N and E of 70W from early Fri through Sat night.