Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Feb 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Gale-force winds associated with a deep low pressure at the north- central to east Atlantic continues to generate large, long- period NW to N swell across the central subtropical Atlantic waters. As a result, expect seas of 12 to 16 ft from 26N to 31N between 33W and 55W. This area of very rough seas should gradually shift eastward through Thu night, then move east of 35W on Fri. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast near 10N14W, then extends southwestward to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 04N20W through 00N30W to 01N41W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 02S to 05N between 10W and 43W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface ridge extends west-southwest from a 1025 mb high located over central Florida, which covers the entire basin ahead of a cold front that extends from SW Louisiana to southern Texas. Moderate or weaker return flow is over the basin ahead and behind of the cold front. Seas are mainly slight basin-wide. For the forecast, the cold front will sweep southward across the Gulf region through late Thu. Fresh to near gale force northerly winds and rough seas will follow the front. Winds and seas will begin to diminish across the Gulf area from W to E Thu night into Fri as high pressure settles over the NW Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from the northern Leeward Islands WSW to southern Jamaica adjacent waters near 14N77W where it is helping to induce some shower activity. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are in the vicinity of the front, except over the central Caribbean where a tighter pressure gradient supports fresh to strong winds and rough seas to 11 ft. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are elsewhere along with moderate seas to 7 ft. For the forecast, the front is forecast to dissipate by early this afternoon, however strong winds in the central Caribbean will gradually diminish through Thu morning as high pressure N of the area shifts eastward. A surface trough, remnants of the front, will move W and reach the coast of Nicaragua today where it will remain through Thu. A cold front will reach the NW Caribbean late on Thu and will merge with the trough. Fresh to strong N winds and building seas will follow this front, forecast to reach from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Thu night and from Haiti to Panama Fri morning where it will start to weaken. Fresh to near gale force N winds with rough seas in the SW Caribbean associated with the front will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds Sat night into Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on the significant swell event. A cold front extends from 31N37W to the northern Leeward Islands. Fresh to strong winds are on either side of the front N of 25N, and behind the front between 55W and 60W. Very rough seas, in long period NW swell, are found in the wake of the front. Rough seas are ahead of the front. High pressure of 1026 mb is SW of Bermuda, supporting mainly light to gentle variable winds N of 25N. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are ongoing E of the central and southern Bahamas along with moderate to rough seas to 10 ft in N swell. High pressure of 1020 mb is over the E subtropical Atlantic waters ahead of the cold front, supporting light to gentle winds between 20N to 27N and moderate to rough seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the northern part of the front will continue to move eastward while the southern part of it will remain nearly stationary in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands through today, then the front will begin to lift N ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off NE Florida on Thu. Another round of fresh to strong winds and building seas is expected with the next cold front, which is forecast to extend from near Bermuda to Hispaniola by Fri morning, and from 25N55W to Puerto Rico on Sat. Gale conditions are possible on either side of the front mainly across the waters N of 29N Thu night and Fri. Strong low pressure building N of the forecast area could also bring gale force winds across the N waters E of 70W Sat night and Sun.