Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Oct 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Rainfall in the North Caribbean: A broad upper-level trough extends from the United States into the NW Caribbean, while deep moisture convergence is ongoing at lower levels in the southern Caribbean. A broad plume of very moist air will interact with the upper level trough in the NW Caribbean, sustaining moisture into Hispaniola, Jamaica, Cuba, and the Bahamas over the next several days. Low-level winds will also lead to moist onshore flow entering along the southern coasts of east Cuba and Haiti, where heavy precipitation is expected through Sunday. Expect the heaviest precipitation to occur across all other aforementioned areas on Sat and Sun. Heavy rainfall will raise concerns for dangerous and life-threatening flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather services and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 13N16W and extends to 07N30W. The ITCZ extends from 07N35W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 11N between 17W and 20W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A tight gradient between 1020 mb high pressure off Louisiana and a trough over the northwest Caribbean is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds and 4-6 ft seas across the eastern Gulf this morning. Light to gentle NE to E winds and 1-3 ft seas are noted over the western Gulf. For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between the high pressure and a low pressure forecast to develop near the Bahamas will bring fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas over the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits, tonight through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An upper level trough over NW Caribbean supports scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Caribbean. A weak pressure gradient over the area is generating moderate or weaker winds, and slight to moderate seas, over the basin. For the forecast, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Caribbean and Windward Passage will prevail through Sat. Meanwhile, a broad trough over the central and western Caribbean will support light winds and slight to moderate seas west of 75W through Sat, and moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas east of 75W. Fresh N to NE winds across the western Caribbean with building seas west of 80W are expected by early next week as high pressure builds north of the area. Expect rough seas and large swell across the Yucatan Channel Mon and Tue. Little change is expected elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active east of the northern Bahamas, and west of a trough reaching from 31N60W to the central Bahamas. Gentle to moderate breezes persist east of 50W, although a tongue of large N swell continues to move into the waters between 70W, with 7 to 9 ft wave heights. Waves are 5-7 ft elsewhere west of 560W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active near another surface trough is noted along 50W north of 25N, and within 90 nm east of a trough along 32W from 10N to 18N. Elsewhere, broad ridging centered on 1030 mb high pressure near the Azores is maintaining fresh to strong SE to S winds and 6-8 ft seas north of 27N between 45W and 50W, and moderate to fresh E winds and 5-7 ft seas elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, large northerly swell will continue to propagate across the forecast region W of 65W and NE of the Bahamas through Fri. A tightening pressure gradient will develop beginning late Fri as high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic and low pressure deepens near the Bahamas along a trough or developing frontal boundary. This setup is expected to induce widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force over much of the waters north of 27N and W of 60W Sat night through Sun night. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid the affected areas.