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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Oct 15 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Lorenzo is centered near 20.5N 45.1W at 15/0900 UTC or 1230 nm WNW of the Cabo Verde Islands, moving N at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are estimated to be around 14 ft (3.5 m) near the center. Numerous moderate convection is seen from 19N to 21N between 42W and 45W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 18N to 25N between 40W and 47W. A turn toward the northeast and a faster forward speed are expected later today. Little change in strength is forecast and Lorenzo is forecast to dissipate by Thursday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Lorenzo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 04N to 15N with axis near 26W, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to 14N between 21W and 32W. A tropical wave extends from 04N to 14N with axis near 37W, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 01N to 10N between 36W and 44W. A tropical wave extends from 12N to 18N with axis near 58W, moving WNW at 5 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen from 12N to 16N between 55W and 57W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal coast near 13N16W to 10N22W to 08N27W where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ then continues to 08N36W and then resumes west of a tropical wave near 07N38W to 08N44W. See the Tropical Waves section for information on convection. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering numerous heavy showers and strong thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters between eastern Panama and northwestern Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1017 mb high over SE Texas coastal waters is dominating the Gulf and providing with light to gentle winds, and 1 to 3 ft seas west of 88W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail over the SE Gulf due to the passage of a cold front tail across the Florida Straits. For the forecast, a weak ridge will dominate the Gulf region through the forecast period, resulting in gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the basin. Winds are forecast to increase to fresh speeds over the eastern and central Gulf Thu night through Sat night as the pressure gradient tightens some across the area. Winds will veer to the SE and S toward the end of the week as high pressure over the SE United States shifts eastward into the western Atlantic. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to reach the NW Gulf waters on Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The passage of two cold fronts over the SW N Atlantic waters and the presence of Tropical Storm Lorenzo in the central Atlantic continue to support a weak pressure pattern in the Caribbean, thus resulting in mainly light to gentle winds, except for locally moderate easterly winds over the eastern basin. This is supporting slight seas basin-wide, except in the Gulf of Honduras and offshore waters between Colombia and Panama where moderate to strong convection are likely supporting strong to gusty winds and moderate to rough seas, respectively. For the forecast, a cold front will move across Cuba and the NW Caribbean through Thu before dissipating. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the wake of the front. Unsettled weather conditions will persist along and ahead of the frontal boundary through tonight. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the basin through Sat. Easterly winds in the E Caribbean will become mainly fresh by Sat evening as a vigorous tropical wave approaches the Lesser Antilles. The tropical wave is forecast to enter the E Caribbean late on Sun and fresh trades will extend to the central basin waters. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for further details on Tropical Storm Lorenzo in the central Atlantic. Tropical Storm Lorenzo is near 20.5N 45.1W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving north at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. A cold front extends from 31N59W to Andros Island and the Straits of Florida. Scattered showers and tstms are within 120 nm ahead of the front. Fresh to strong winds also follows this front with stronger SW winds to near gale force ahead of the front to 58W. Farther east, a 1003 mb low, remnants of Jerry, is generating heavy showers and tstms N of 26N between 30W and 48W. Near gale force to gusty winds are likely ongoing in the areas of strongest convection. The remainder subtropical Atlantic waters are under the inlfuence of a ridge centered by a 1018 mb high between the Canary Islands and the Cape Verde Islands. For the forecast, the cold front will move SE across the forecast waters through Thu before dissipating. The front will reach from 31N57W to the Dominican Republic this evening, and from 31N55W to 20N65W Thu evening. Fresh to near gale force winds and rough seas are expected on either side of the front across the waters N of 24N through Thu evening. A reinforcing front will follow the main front, and is forecast to extend from 31N60W to the Straits of Florida by Fri morning. Meanwhile, Lorenzo will move to 22.9N 43.3W this afternoon, 25.7N 40.4W Thu morning, and dissipate Thu afternoon.