Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Nov 19 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the E Atlantic near 14N17W and extends to 14N23W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection prevails within 200 nm on either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A broad surface ridge is dominating much of the Gulf. A surface trough is analyzed over eastern Bay of Campeche. Gentle to moderate mainly E winds and slight seas are present across the entire Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure centered near northern Florida gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas through Sat night across the basin. Low pressure over northern Mexico may lead to winds increasing to fresh speeds in the NW Gulf Sun night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends southward from far western Cuba to around 20N85W. Associated convection has dissipated early this morning. Another surface trough extends southward from Puerto Rico to near 12N. It is inducing scattered moderate convection just E of its axis within about 150 nm of Puerto Rico. The eastern extension of the Pacific's monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate convection across the SW Caribbean S of 10N between 76W-81W. Moderate to fresh trades dominate most of the basin, except for the NW, where gentle E winds prevail. Locally strong winds are ongoing offshore Colombia. Slight seas prevail in the NW Caribbean, with moderate seas elsewhere, peaking around 7 ft offshore Colombia. For the forecast, the surface trough in the NW basin will dissipate today as it drifts west into the Yucatan Channel. With high pressure to the north and the Colombian low to the south, mainly moderate trades will dominate through the weekend, with nightly pulses of locally strong winds possible offshore Colombia. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front over the western Atlantic extends from 31N58W to just E of the NW Bahamas. To the E, a surface trough extending from 31N52W to 26N58W is inducing numerous moderate to isolated strong convection within about 90 nm ahead of its axis. Locally gusty winds are likely associated with the stronger thunderstorms. Over the central Atlantic, another stationary front along 39W to the N of 22N is inducing scattered moderate convection along and within 60 nm E of it. Away form convection, winds N of 20N are moderate or weaker, with moderate to locally fresh trades dominating waters S of 20N. Seas E of 65W are 5 to 8 ft, with 2 to 5 seas to the W. For the forecast west of 55W, the western stationary front will mostly dissipate into tonight, but a portion of it will persist along 55W from about 23N northward through late week. Gentle breezes will prevail across area waters, with mainly slight to moderate seas. Looking ahead, SW winds may increase slightly off northeast Florida Fri night through Sat ahead of a weak cold front moving into the southeast U.S.