Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Dec 20 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Sierra Leone and Liberia, then runs westward to near 06N14W. The ITCZ continues from 06N14W to 03N30W to 02N43W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 06N between 23W and 27W, and from 02N to 04N between 36W and 39W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front stretches southwestward from near Ft Myers, Florida to 24N94W, where it becomes a stationary front that continues NW over NE Mexico. Scattered showers are along the frontal boundary. A surface trough is generating scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the Bay of Campeche. Strong upper-level winds are helping to induce this convective activity. The most recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh N to NE winds in the wake of the front, with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Gentle to moderate NE winds are noted S of 22N, with mainly light to gentle winds S of the front to 22N. Seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail S of the front. For the forecast, fresh NW to N winds will occur offshore of Tampico and Veracruz into this evening as a cold front over the central Gulf drifts southward, and high pressure builds over northern Mexico. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are then expected over much of the basin through Sun as the cold front weakens and slowly dissipates. Locally fresh NE winds will be possible in the Bay of Campeche on Sun as a trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and moves westward. Looking ahead, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas will develop over the central and eastern Gulf early next week as a cold front pushes off the coast of the southeastern United States. Locally strong NE winds and rough seas will be possible through the Florida Straits. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong winds aloft are also supporting the development of showers, with embedded thunderstorms over parts of the Yucatan Peninsula, Belize and northern Guatemala, including the Yucatan Channel. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen offshore western Panama and Costa Rica, and over parts of northern Colombia. Elsewhere, shallow moisture, embedded in the trade wind flow, is moving across the basin producing isolated to scattered passing showers. Latest satellite derived wind data and altimeter data show fresh to strong trade winds, with 8 to 10 ft seas over the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh winds are elsewhere over the east and central parts of the basin, with gentle to moderate winds over the NW Caribbean, except in the lee of Cuba where mainly light winds prevail. Seas are 5 to 8 ft over the remainder of the central Caribbean, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere, with the exception of 1 to 3 ft in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, strong to near-gale force winds and rough seas are expected offshore of northern Colombia through early next week as low pressure prevails over the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas will occur over much of the basin through this weekend, supported by high pressure to the north. Winds may occasionally pulse to strong speeds in the Gulf of Venezuela. Elsewhere, rough seas in E to SE swell in the Atlantic waters will slowly subside into early Sat, before rough seas redevelop Sat evening through Sun. Looking ahead, a cold front passing to the north of the Caribbean will support widespread fresh NE winds west of 70W by early next week, with strong winds possible through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1015 mb low pressure is located near 29N56W. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas are associated with this system that was previously a gale center. A well defined swirl of low clouds is related to the low, with scattered showers and thunderstorms in bands to the E of the low center. This convective activity is affecting mainly the waters N of 25N between 48W and 53W. A shear-line is analyzed from the low to 22N60W to 24N73W. Farther W, a cold front is off NE Florida, and extends from 31N77W to near Melbourne, FL. Fresh to strong S to SW winds and rough seas are noted ahead of the front. Showers and thunderstorms are also ahead of the front N of 28N to about 70W. A cold front crosses the Canary Islands and continues westward to near 31N35W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is under the influence of a ridge. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ, continues to support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas roughly S of 24N and E of 50W. A couple of altimeter passes indicate seas of 8 to 10 ft within these winds. Moderate to locally fresh trades and seas of 8 to 9 ft in NE swell are observed across the waters just E of the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast W of 55W, fresh to strong winds associated with the aforementioned low are expected west of the low into this evening north of 28N and east of 60W, before winds diminish late tonight. Widespread rough seas in N to NE swell associated with this low will continue east of 64W, with very rough seas in excess of 12 ft expected north of 27N through this evening. Seas will slowly diminish early Sat through Sat afternoon. Elsewhere, fresh to strong S to SW winds and rough seas will occur offshore of Florida to 70W ahead of a cold front moving off the coast of the southeastern U.S. Winds will turn to the W and weaken from west to east behind the front through this evening. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will push off the coast of the southeastern U.S. early on Mon, supporting widespread strong NE winds and rapidly building seas in the wake of the front into the middle of next week.