Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Apr 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... West Atlantic Significant Swell: Strong high pressure across the NW Atlantic extends a ridge southwestward and across the local western Atlantic waters, to the north of a stalled cold front lingering from near Bermuda through the central Bahamas. A very tight pressure gradient north of this front is producing a long and sustained fetch of strong NE winds, which is generating very rough seas in the Atlantic waters north of the front. Recent SoFar Ocean buoys and altimeter data show a large area of 11 to 14 ft seas persisting north of the front to 31N, and extending westward to just offshore of the east coast of Florida. Strong NE winds and very rough seas will prevail for the next few hours before winds gradually diminish late tonight, as the front weakens. High seas in large NE swell will maintain rough seas between Bermuda and the Bahamas into the start of next week, but are expected to subside below 12 ft Fri morning. Fresh to strong winds are forecast to return Sat night into early next week as the pressured gradient tightens again. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both areas of significant swell. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea near 10.5N14.5W and extends southwestward to 03.5N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to NE Brazil near 01.5S46W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of 06N between 11W and 24W, and S of 02.5N between 24W and 47W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A broad ridge extends across the SE United States and across the Gulf region. A lingering frontal boundary is weakening from the central Bahamas to along the NW coast of Cuba. The associated pressure gradient north of this boundary is forcing fresh to strong NE to E winds across the E and north-central Gulf, with strongest winds across NE portions. Seas across this area and over the open waters continue at 6 to 9 ft, and extend to offshore of central Louisiana. Elsewhere, NE to E winds are moderate or weaker, with seas 3 to 6 ft. Scattered showers are seen over the NW Gulf moving toward the Texas coast. For the forecast, strong high pressure over the eastern U.S. will support strong NE winds and rough seas across the northeast Gulf through late tonight. This pattern will maintain moderate to fresh east to southeast winds and moderate seas elsewhere across basin through early next week, except for occasional strong east winds off western Cuba and off the northwest Yucatan. Locally rough seas will continue in the Straits of Florida into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak north to south pressure gradient continues across the Caribbean tonight, as a weakening stationary front extends through the central Bahamas to the NW coast of Cuba. As a result, fresh to locally strong E trades are restricted to only over the south-central Caribbean S of 15N, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere across the Caribbean winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 3 to 5 ft, except 1 to 3 ft in the NW part of the basin. Isolated evening showers and thunderstorms continue to diminish over the Greater Antilles. Elsewhere, shallow moisture embedded in the trade wind flow is moving across the Lesser Antilles and into the eastern basin, producing brief showers. For the forecast, strong high pressure building southward from the northwestern Atlantic will tighten the pressure gradient and increase winds over the basin, as a stalled frontal boundary weakens into the weekend. This will lead to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean through the weekend and into early next week. Fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas will commence south of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola starting Sat night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section above for information on a Significant Swell Event offshore Florida in the western Atlantic. A stationary front extends from just south of Bermuda through 31N66W to the central Bahamas, then more westward to along the NW cost of Cuba, where it is quickly weakening. Scattered moderate showers and thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the front to 60W, and N of 24N. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough to very rough seas to 14 ft are north the front, while gentle to moderate winds and rough seas in N swell are up to around 240 NM ahead of the front. Elsewhere, a strong 1036 mb Azores High is centered north of the forecast waters at 35N37W with surface ridging extending to the NE Caribbean. The large pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong NE trades north of 13N and east of 50W. Seas are 8 to 14 ft E of 50W, and 5 to 8 ft E of the front to 50W. S of 13N, moderate to fresh trade winds prevail, with seas 7 to 10 ft in mainly N swell. For the forecast west of 55W, a nearly stationary front extends from just south of Bermuda through the Central Bahamas, where it begins to weaken to the NW coast of Cuba. Strong high pressure extends a ridge to the northwest of the frontal boundary. The pressure gradient between these two features will continue to allow for mostly strong NE winds and very rough seas north of the front through the rest of tonight. These winds will then diminish to fresh speeds Fri morning as the frontal boundary is nudged southward by the high pressure. The main marine hazard will then be large northeast swell that will maintain rough seas between Bermuda and the Bahamas into the start of next week. Fresh to strong winds look to return Sat night into early next week as the pressure gradient tightens.