Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sun Feb 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for their Agadir, Tarfaya, and Canarias Marine Zones, all of which are valid through at least 15/12 UTC. For more details, please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W to 01.5N31W to 01S37W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 01N between 06W and 11W, and within 90 nm of the ITCZ between 21W and 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The remnants of a front, in the form of a convergence line or trough extends from the SE LA coast to the SE Gulf near 23.5N85.5W. Scattered weak showers are seen near the north end of the trough. Elsewhere, a broad ridge extends from the Middle Atlantic States of the U.S. southwestward across the Gulf basin. Moderate to fresh SE to S return flow has opened up across the NW Gulf, ahead of a frontal system moving into W Texas and Oklahoma. Strong southerly winds have develop along the southern Texas coastal waters, where scattered showers are along the coast and extend well inland. Buoy observations indicate that seas are 5-7 ft across the southern Texas and far NE Mexican coastal waters, and 2-4 ft seas between 90W and 93W. The east and northeast Gulf is seeing gentle to moderate SE winds and seas of 1-3 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly return flow prevails over the western Gulf waters, ahead of low pressure and an associated cold front that will enter the NW waters tonight into early Sun. Strong S to SW winds and rough seas are expected in the N-central and NE Gulf with and ahead of this frontal system on Sun. The front is forecast to move SE of the area by Mon, with winds and seas decreasing. High pres will build in the wake of the front. Gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail by midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A somewhat typical trade-wind regime persists across much of the Caribbean Sea this evening, as 1026 mb high pressure resides along the Atlantic coast of North Carolina. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail off the north coast of Colombia, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the eastern and south-central basin. Fresh to strong NE winds continue through the Windward Passage and on both sides of Jamaica, where seas are 4 to 6 ft except to 7 ft within the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are noted across the NW basin, including the lee of Cuba. For the forecast, pulsing strong NE winds will prevail near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period, producing moderate to rough seas. Strong winds will prevail through the Windward Passage and S of the Dominican Republic this weekend as a high pressure center passing N of the area maintains a tight pressure gradient. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail through the middle of next week, except mainly light to gentle winds over the NW Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An Atlantic cold front extends from the north-central Atlantic through 31N49W southwestward to 22N57W then becomes nearly stationary to eastern Dominican Republic. Scattered showers showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen N of 23N between 47W and 55W. 1026 mb high pressure is centered along the coast of North Carolina near 34.5N77W. The pressure gradient behind the front is producing moderate to fresh N to NE winds following the front, then veering to E and continuing westward to the FL coast. Moderate to rough seas to 9 ft in NW to N swell are occurring N of 23N between the front and 70W. Gentle to moderate E winds with moderate seas area elsewhere W of 70W, with slight seas in the vicinity of the Bahamas and the FL coast. For much of the remaining Atlantic between the front mentioned above and 30W, moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6-8 ft prevail, becoming fresh S to SW winds N of 26N ahead of the front, where seas are 7 to 10 ft in NW swell. To the E of 30W and N of 10N, a stronger pressure difference between a 1034 mb high near 36N23W and lower pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 12 ft. Strong to near gale- force NE winds are confirmed by scatterometer data off the coastal border of Mauritania and Western Sahara. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure is building southeastward across the region in the wake of the cold front, and will slide E-SE through Mon, ahead of the next cold frontal system. S winds will strengthen offshore north and central Florida on Sun in advance of this next cold front that will move off the SE U.S. coast on Mon. The cold front will shift eastward over the forecast waters, moving east of the area the middle of next week. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front. These winds will diminish by the middle of next week, with rough seas lingering E of 60W.