Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Feb 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for their Agadir, Tarfaya, and Canarias Marine Zones, all of which are valid through at least 15/12 UTC. For more details, please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 01S46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 100 nm S of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A frontal remnant trough extends from the SE LA coast to the SE Gulf W of Dry Tortuga. Scattered showers are seen near the north end of the trough and also along the TX coast. Fresh to strong S winds and 5-7 ft seas are occurring W of 94W as a frontal boundary approaches the region, with moderate to fresh S to SE winds and 2-5 ft seas between 90W and 94W. The remainder of the Gulf is seeing gentle to moderate or weaker winds and seas of 1-3 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong southerly return flow prevails over the western waters ahead of a cold front that will enter the NW Gulf waters tonight into early Sun. Strong S to SW winds and rough seas are expected in the N-central and NE Gulf with this frontal system on Sun. The front is forecast to move SE of the area by Mon. High pres will build in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A trade-wind regime persists across much of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident off northwestern Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the eastern and south-central basin. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft are noted across the NW basin, including the lee of Cuba and Windward Passage. For the forecast, pulsing strong NE winds will prevail near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Moderate to rough seas are expected with these winds. Strong winds will prevail over the Windward Passage and S of the Dominican Republic this weekend as a high pressure center passing N of the area maintains a tight pressure gradient. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N53W to the northeastern Dominican Republic. Scattered showers showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen N of 22N between 47W and 59W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds follow the front and continue westward to the FL coast, with rough seas occurring N of 27N between 43W and 58W. Seas elsewhere behind the front are generally moderate, with slight seas in the vicinity of the Bahamas and the FL coast. For much of the remaining Atlantic between the front mentioned above and 30W, moderate to fresh trades and seas of 6-9 ft prevail. To the E of 30W and N of 10N, a stronger pressure difference between a 1034 mb high near 36N23W and lower pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas. Strong to near gale-force NE winds are confirmed by scatterometer data off the coastal border of Mauritania and Western Sahara. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 27N55W to Hispaniola. Rough seas N of the front and E of 60W will subside today. High pressure is building in the wake of the front. S winds will strengthen offshore north and central Florida on Sun in advance of another cold front that will move off the SE U.S. coast on Mon. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front.