Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Dec 11 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1655 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and extends to 07N17W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 02N47W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 0.5N to 08N, and east of 38W. Isolated convection is also noted from 02N to 06N between 37W and 47W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends from Saint Petersburg, FL to near 25N96W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds follow the front along with seas 3 to 6 ft. A surface trough is generating isolated convection over the Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending southeastward from central Texas is dominating the rest of the Gulf. Therefore, light to gentle N to NE winds prevail across the remainder of the basin along with 2 to 3 ft seas, except for moderate winds over the SE Gulf including the Straits of Florida. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are expected over the northern Gulf into this afternoon, in the wake of a cold front extending from central Florida to near the Texas- Mexico border. The front will progress southeastward through tonight before dissipating. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh E to NE winds will occur in the eastern Bay of Campeche and offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Sat. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are expected over the remainder of the basin through Sat. Looking ahead, the next cold front is slated to enter the northern Gulf on Sun, and increasing winds and building seas will occur in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends across the Yucatan Channel and is supporting scattered moderate convection. Fresh to strong ENE to E winds and rough seas are evident at the south- central basin. Moderate to fresh easterly winds with moderate seas are present over the north- central and eastern parts of the basin. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, widespread fresh trade winds are expected over the central and eastern Caribbean through Sun morning as a moderate pressure gradient prevails between the Colombian low and high pressure to the north. Strong E winds will pulse in the central basin, and winds may reach near-gale force at times offshore of northern Colombia. Rough seas are expected near and to the west of these winds. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough seas in E swell will prevail over the Atlantic waters and through the passages into the eastern basin through this weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front will approach the northwestern Caribbean by early next week, and increasing winds and building seas will be possible behind the front. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 31N62W to the Bahamas. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the trough between 61W-77W. To the W, a cold front extends from 31N71W to 28N75W, while a second and stronger cold front extends from 31N76W to Cocoa Beach, FL. Elsewhere, high pressure ridge prevails, anchored by a 1026 mb high centered near 27N44W. Fresh to strong SW to W winds and moderate seas are noted ahead of the fronts north of 27N, and between 57W and 71W. In the wake of the front north of 28.5N, and between 71W and 80W, fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas prevail. At the central Atlantic north of 27N between 35W and 48W, light to gentle winds and rough seas prevail in large mixed swell. For the tropical Atlantic, fresh to strong ENE to E winds and rough seas are present. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate ESE to SE winds and moderate seas exist. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold fronts will rapidly progress eastward into the central Atlantic through Fri, and widespread strong to locally near-gale force SW winds will occur ahead of the front, generally north of 28N and east of 70W into Fri afternoon. Near and to the west of the cold fronts, fresh to locally strong W to NW winds are anticipated, north of 28N from offshore of Florida to 70W through late tonight. Rough seas associated with this storm system are expected north of 27N, with seas slowly subsiding from west to east into this weekend. Elsewhere in the central Atlantic, rough seas in mixed N and SE swell will prevail through Fri morning, with a new mixed swell reinforcing rough seas this weekend. Looking ahead, the next cold front is slated to push off the coast of the southeastern United States on Sun, and increasing winds and building seas will occur in the wake of the front.