Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Nov 25 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1900 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12.5N16.5W and continues southwestward to 11N18.5W. The ITCZ extends from 11N18.5W to 09N127W to 10.5N35W and to 09N48.5W to 10.5N56W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring east of 30W from 09N and 28N. Similar convection is noted from 07N to 12.5N between 49W and 61W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak stationary front extends from just north of Tampa Bay, Florida to near the SE tip of Louisiana. No significant convection is noted over the basin on conventional visible and infrared satellite imagery. Moderate to fresh SE-S winds are noted north of 23N and west of 95W due to a locally tight pressure gradient in the area. Gentle to moderate SE-S winds dominate the remainder of the basin, except light to gentle in the NE Gulf. Seas are 4-7 ft near the moderate to fresh winds, 1-2 ft in the NE Gulf, and 2-4 ft across the remainder of the waters. For the forecast, a stationary front extending across the northern Gulf will lift northward by tonight as low pressure develops over the Southern Plains. Expect fresh southerly flow off the Texas coast through tonight supported by the gradient between low pressure over northeast Mexico and high pressure off the Carolinas. These winds will diminish Tue ahead of a frontal boundary that will be nearing the Texas coast. A stronger reinforcing cold front will overtake the frontal boundary early Wed, then move into the NW Gulf. The cold front will then sweep to the southeast of the basin by Thu night into Fri, followed by fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas into the weekend. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may accompany the frontal boundary. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Divergence aloft continues to support widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms in the Gulf of Honduras and off Costa Rica, Panama, and NW Colombia. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail in the central Caribbean, strongest offshore northern Colombia. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft, as confirmed by an earlier altimeter pass. Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and mainly moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge north of the islands and lower pressures in NW Colombia will sustain fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean through late this week. The strongest winds of 25 to 30 kt, and highest seas of 9 to 11 ft are expected offshore Colombia mainly at night. In the remainder of the basin, the weather pattern will support moderate to fresh winds along with moderate seas through the period. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the NW Caribbean on Fri, followed by strong winds and rough seas. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from near Bermuda to the near Cape Canaveral, Florida. No significant convection is noted near the front. Seas of 4-6 ft in mainly NW swell are noted north of the front. Gentle to moderate winds dominate the remainder of the waters north of 19N and west of 50W, along with 3-4 ft seas. Farther east, a weak 1016 mb low pressure is near 29.5N48W. A surface trough extends from this low to 21N47W. Scattered moderate convection is present north of 21N between 43W and the trough axis. Moderate to fresh SE-S winds are found north of 26N and east of the trough to around 40W. The rest of the tropical Atlantic is dominated by a 1028 mb high pressure system near the Azores. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring north of 15N and between 30W and 46W. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough seas are found north of 26N between 20W and 35W. Farthest southeast, fresh to strong NE-E winds and rough seas are found from 10N to 20N and east of 28W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the eastern portion of the cold front will continue eastward and reach from 31N52W to 27N63W by Tue morning, while the portion west of 70W starts to lift north. High pressure located off the Carolinas will shift eastward following the front, supporting moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas over the region. Looking ahead, winds and seas will diminish west of 70W by Wed, ahead of a stronger cold front expected to move off the northeast Florida coast Wed night. The front will reach from Bermuda to the Straits of Florida by early Fri, followed by fresh to strong NW winds and building seas through Fri night. Looking ahead, a tightened pressure gradient in the wake of the front is forecast to bring increasing winds and building seas across much of the forecast area during the upcoming weekend.