Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Jan 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front extends from 27N83W to 24N88W to 18N94W. NW winds peaking to 45 kt, and seas to 22 ft, will continue in the SW Gulf offshore of Veracruz, Mexico through Monday. The front will reach the Straits of Florida, the SE Gulf and the eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon morning, then will weaken and stall from western Cuba to the northern Yucatan peninsula to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Tue morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits the coast of Liberia near 06N10W and continues to 04N17W. The ITCZ extends from 04N17W to 03N51W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 13N between 25W and 50W. GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING. As previously mentioned, strong cold front extends from 27N83W to 24N88W to 18N94W. Outside of the Gale Warning currently in effect, strong to near-gale force northerly winds are behind the front across most of the basin, with seas ranging from 8-11 ft. Scattered showers are along the front. Moderate NE winds and slight seas are analyzed ahead of the front in the far SE Gulf and the Straits of Florida. For the forecast, the front will reach the Straits of Florida, the SE Gulf and the eastern Bay of Campeche by Mon morning, then will weaken and stall from western Cuba to the northern Yucatan peninsula to the eastern Bay of Campeche by Tue morning. Conditions in the SW Gulf will gradually improve Mon night into Tue. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin through early Wed. The next cold front could impact the basin with increasing winds and building seas by Wed night, with that front rapidly shifting SE of the basin Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... Latest scatterometer data indicates strong trades in the south- central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, a result of the tight pressure gradient between the subtropical Atlantic ridge and lower pressures over South America. Seas are 8-9 ft in these winds, as captured in recent altimeter data. Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the remainder of the central Caribbean, with 5-7 ft seas. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades and 3-5 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, strong to near-gale NE to E winds will continue to pulse offshore of NW Colombia through tonight with rough seas. Then, fresh to strong winds will persist through Mon night. Afterwards, fresh to strong winds will prevail. Pulsing moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast south of Hispaniola, in the Windward passage, and in the lee of Cuba through at least the early part of the week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail. A weakening stationary front is forecast to extend across western Cuba and the northern Yucatan peninsula by Tue morning while gradually dissipating. Another cold front may move into the NW part of the basin Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front has entered the W Atlantic, analyzed from 31N77W to 29N81W. Fresh to strong winds prevail in the wake of the front with seas to 7 ft. A 1026 mb high pressure is centered north of the area provides for moderate to fresh trades across the tropical and subtropical Atlantic. Seas are 4-7 ft, except south of 20N and east of 40W where seas are 8-9 ft. Weak surface troughs are from 20N57W to 28N54W and from 29N37W to 26N46W. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure N of the area will continue to move eastward ahead of a cold front forecast that has already moved off the NE Florida coast. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas will follow this front, which is forecast to reach from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Mon morning. Thereafter, the front will become stationary as it dissipates on Tue. Then, high pressure will follow the front. Looking ahead, the next cold front may enter the NW waters by Wed night, reaching from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas late Thu night. At that time, gale conditions and building seas are possible in the wake of the front N of 29N.