Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Feb 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for their Agadir, Tarfaya, and Canarias Marine Zones, all of which are valid through at least 15/12 UTC. For more details, please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast near Conakry, then extends southwestward to 04N19W. An ITCZ continues from 04N19W through 02N30W to north of Sao Luis, Brazil at 00N44W. Widely scattered to scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 04N between 10W and 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The tail end of a squall line is triggering scattered heavy showers and strong thunderstorms with occasional lightning and gusty winds across the northwestern Gulf. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending southwestward from central Florida to south of Tampico, Mexico dominates the much of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft are noted off the Florida coast up to Apalachicola. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft are seen at the Bay of Campeche. Moderate to fresh with locally strong SE to SSW winds and 4 to 7 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf, including waters off the western Florida Panhandle. For the forecast, a cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf by Sun night. Strong S to SW winds and rough seas are expected in the north-central and northeastern Gulf ahead of this frontal system on Sun. The front is forecast to move southeast of the Gulf by Mon afternoon, with winds and seas decreasing. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail by midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough along with the southwestern end of a stationary front are generating scattered showers near Jamaica, Hispaniola and Puerto Rico. A trade-wind regime persist for the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft are present off northwestern Colombia, south of the Dominican Republic and near the Windward Passage. Fresh with locally strong ENE winds and seas at 3 to 6 ft are found at the lee of Cuba. Mainly gentle winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are evident at the northeastern basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to ESE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, pulsing strong NE winds will prevail near the coast of Colombia through Thu night. Moderate to rough seas are expected with these winds. Strong winds will prevail over the Windward Passage and south of the Dominican Republic this weekend as a high pressure center passing north of the area maintains a tight pressure gradient. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail through the middle of next week, except mainly light to gentle winds over the northwestern Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic through 31N49W to 22N57W, then continues as a stationary to the Dominican Republic. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen up to 80 nm along either side of the cold front. Scattered showers are found up to 40 nm along either side of the stationary front. Well farther south, convergent trade winds are producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 01N to 03N between 41W and 50W, including waters near the Amazon River Delta. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A 1024 mb high off the Georgia/South Carolina coast is supporting gentle to moderate NE to SE winds with 3 to 5 ft seas north of 26N and west of 50W. To the south, moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft from 20N to 26N and west of 55W, including the central and southeast Bahamas. Between 50W/55W and 35W, and north of 20N, moderate with locally fresh SE to S winds and seas at 7 to 10 ft in mixed moderate to large swells exist. For the tropical Atlantic from the Equator to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure is building in the wake of the aforementioned cold front. S winds will strengthen offshore north and central Florida on Sun in advance of another cold front that will move off the southeast U.S. coast on Mon. This cold front will shift eastward over the forecast waters, moving east of 35W by the middle of next week. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the second front. These winds will diminish by the middle of next week, with rough seas lingering east of 60W.