Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Mar 17 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Storm Warning: A strong cold front extends from the Florida Big Bend area to south of Veracruz, Mexico. Recent scatterometer data along with buoy and land-based observations are showing gale force winds across much of the northern and western Gulf following the front. A recent report from Veracruz, Mexico showed sustained 35 kt winds with gusts to 50 kt as the front moved through. Recent buoy and altimeter data indicate rough to very rough seas following the front. Seas will peak between 15 and 18 ft under the strongest winds. Both winds and seas should gradually subside from north to south starting this evening. Please refer to the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast near 10N14W to 03N20W. An ITCZ continues from 03N20W across 02N33W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 02N between 22W ad 27W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for information on a Storm Warning. Outside of the winds and seas following the front as described above in the Special Features section, gentle to moderate SW winds and 3-5 seas are noted ahead of the front. Numerous moderate to strong thunderstorms are active ahead of the front, north of 25N, moving into the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, the front will continue to move southeastward, and reach from the Florida Straits to the Yucatan Peninsula by early Tue morning. Widespread near gale-force to gale-force N winds and rough seas are occurring behind the front. These winds will continue to peak at gale-force off the NW and W Gulf later this afternoon and through the evening. In addition, winds near Veracruz will reach storm force for a brief period. Seas will build to very rough in the area of these winds. As the front moves farther southeastward away from the Gulf late tonight through Tue, conditions will gradually improve from north to south. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build across the region and prevail through the rest of the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Recent scatterometer satellite data confirmed fresh to strong E winds across the eastern Caribbean, where associated combined seas are 7-10 ft. These winds are supported by strong high pressure over the central Atlantic. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 4-6 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the basin. A few thunderstorms are noted near the Isle of Youth off western Cuba. For the forecast, the aforementioned strong high pressure at the north Atlantic building southward toward the central Atlantic will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the waters near the Lesser Antilles, and the eastern and central Caribbean, including the Atlantic exposures and Passages through Wed. On Tue morning, a cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Caribbean from the Gulf of America. Then, it will slow down and possibly stall from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by early Wed morning while dissipating. This should decrease the influence from the high and allow winds and seas across the central and eastern Caribbean to gradually subside through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A line of thunderstorms is moving off the northeast Florida coast this afternoon ahead of an approaching cold front moving through the northeast Gulf. Strong to gale force S to SW winds are noted west of 77W to the northeast Florida coast, where seas are 6-8 ft. A broad ridge extends across the remainder of basin anchored by 1041 mb high pressure centered near 43N52W. A cold front reaches from the Azores Islands to 30N50W. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds and 7-10 ft over the remainder of the area west of 35W, and gentle to moderate N to NE winds and 5-7 ft seas east of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, the near-gale to gale force southerly winds and rough seas off northeast Florida should shift to the W to NW and diminish to fresh to strong speeds this evening as the front moves eastward through early Tue. At the same time, a low pressure may develop along the frontal boundary and move quickly northeastward. The front will continue to move SE and extend from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas on Wed while becoming stationary. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends southward from a high across 31N62W to beyond SE Florida. This high will continue to support fresh to strong winds and rough seas south of 25N, including the southeast Bahamas and Great Bahama Bank through Tue. By Tue evening, the ridge will retreat eastward in response to the aforementioned cold front. Thus, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas will prevail.