Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Feb 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warnings... A Strong Cold Front: A strong cold front moving off the southeast U.S. coast today is going to produce widespread fresh to near gale-force SW to NW winds off eastern Florida and over the Bahamas. By this evening, these winds near 28N76W will reach gale-force, along with 9 to 11 ft seas. As the cold front pushes farther eastward Fri and Fri night, gale-force winds will spread into the central Atlantic, north of 27N between 60W and 70W. Peak seas will also build to between 12 and 20 ft. This area of gale-force winds and very rough seas will shift farther eastward on Sat, and then northeastward to north of 31N on Sat night. A Deepening Low Pressure: A low pressure system is expected to enter the Atlantic off the North Carolina coast on Fri, then rapidly deepen as it tracks eastward into the western Atlantic. It will produce a large area of westerly gale-force winds north of 27N between 62W and 72W. Seas will peak at 12 to 18 ft. These winds and seas are going to move eastward, to north of 26N between 54W and 70W on Sun with seas build higher to between 22 and 30 ft. Once the low has pulled farther northeastward into the north-central Atlantic, wind conditions should gradually improve starting Sun night, while the large and dangerous swells persist into early next week. Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Seas at 12 to 16 ft in large NW swell, north of 26N and east of 44W will continue to slide eastward through tonight, and shift east of 35W by early Fri morning. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on all three events above. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Liberia at 06N11W, then curves southwestward to 02N15W. The ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 02N15W to 02S22W to 00N30W to just off the coast of Brazil at 03S35W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near both features from 05S to 08N east of 39W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front is exiting the basin, extending from the central Straits of Florida to across western Cuba to just southeast of the Yucatan Channel to the central Yucatan Peninsula to the southern coast of the Bay of Campeche and inland over interior Veracruz, Mexico. Fresh to strong NW-N winds dominate the basin, near gale- force in the SE Gulf, and except for moderate to fresh in the NW Gulf. Seas of 8 to 12 ft cover the basin from the NE Gulf to the SW Gulf with 4 to 7 ft seas over the NW Gulf to the NE Gulf coastal waters. Similar seas are in the eastern Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas follow a cold front that is moving southeast of the Gulf this afternoon. Marine conditions improve overnight from west to east as high pressure builds across the basin. Mostly moderate to fresh NW winds will follow another cold front that will move across the eastern Gulf Sat and Sun. Looking ahead, high pressure will build over the northern Gulf in the wake of the front and will remain in control of the weather pattern across the basin through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front has entered the far NW portion of the basin extending from western Cuba to just southeast of the Yucatan Channel to the central Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh to strong NW winds are behind the front with hazardous conditions and building seas including through the Yucatan Channel. A surface trough is ahead of the front over the western Caribbean from eastern Cuba near 21N78W to 11N81W. Some scattered moderate convection assisted by the trough is noted from Jamaica to across portions of central and eastern Cuba, continuing northeastward over the Bahamas. The pressure gradient west of the trough to the front is tight resulting in fresh to strong NW-N winds, highest along and offshore eastern Honduras and Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh E-SE winds are found east of 76W with mainly gentle to moderate winds west of 76W to the trough. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in the south-central Caribbean, 6 to 8 ft offshore eastern Honduras, and 4 to 7 ft across the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on two Gale Warnings and Significant Swell. A cold front has emerged off northeast Florida this morning, bringing fresh to strong W to NW winds behind it, and also fresh to strong S-SW winds north of 27N and east of the front to 70W. In the far eastern portion of the basin, a cold front extends from 31N15W to 22N47W where it stalls and then continues southwestward to the northern Leeward Islands. The remainder subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge centered by a 1025 mb high near 30.5N44W. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. For seas, rough seas or greater are north of 19N and east of 57W, with very rough seas north of 25N between 14W and 44W, peaking at 18 ft near 31N25W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft south of 19N, with 4 to 7 ft seas across the remainder of the waters, including the SW N Atlantic offshore zones. For the forecast west of 55W,