Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Dec 26 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A cold front extends from 31N40W southwestward to 25N50W, then becomes stationary to 21N70W. Large NW swell behind the front is producing 12 to 14 ft seas north of 27N between 47W and 65W. These very rough seas are expected to gradually subside today. A new pulse of N-NW swell is expected to move into the waters north of 28N late tonight through Sat night to produce another area of rough to very rough seas. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W to 06N18W. The ITCZ continues from 06N18W to 00N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 17W and 24W, and from 00N to 05N between 29W and 41W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough is over the SW Gulf, with scattered showers in its vicinity. The remainder of the Gulf is dominated by high pressure, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered over the NE Gulf. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate winds over the SW Gulf. Light to gentle winds are over the NE Gulf. Gentle to locally moderate winds are elsewhere across the Gulf waters. Slight to moderate seas prevail across the basin. For the forecast, the weak pressure gradient will continue support gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas across the Gulf into Sun. The next cold front is expected to enter the northwest Gulf on Mon, followed by fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas, except gale conditions will be possible in the far west central and southwest Gulf by Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean, where seas are in the rough range. Moderate winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean will continue through Tue. Long period northerly swell moving into the northeastern passages will gradually subside today. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for details on the ongoing significant swell. A cold front extends from 31N40W southwestward to 25N50W, then becomes stationary to 21N70W. Scattered showers prevail along the cold front mainly N of 23N. A cold front is approaching the W Atlantic waters, with fresh to strong winds and rough seas N of 29N and W of 65W. To the E, a cold front extends from near 31N46W southwestward to 22N68W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of the front N of 25N. Moderate to fresh winds are noted N of 20N between 32W and 52W, where seas are rough. Elsewhere E of 35W, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas. Aside from the very rough seas discussed above, rough seas greater cover the waters N of 20N between 42W-71W. Elsewhere, moderate seas are noted. For the forecast west of 55W, the trailing end of a front will dissipate along 22N today. Strong NW winds and large swell follows the front east of 65W. The next cold front will move over the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda this afternoon before moving east of the area Sat. It will be followed by additional reinforcing swell east of 70W. Another front will move into the waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda late Sat into Sun, and move east of the region through Mon. Yet another front will move off the northeast Florida coast Mon night, and will reach from Bermuda to Jupiter Inlet, Florida by late Tue.