Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Thu Jan 01 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Large N swell generated from a gale force low N of the area is producing very rough seas greater than 12 ft over the forecast waters north of 27N between 25W and 40W. These very rough seas will shift eastward while gradually subsiding through late week. Rough seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of 10N between 20W and 55W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N11W and continues to 07N15W. The ITCZ extends from 07N15W to 04N35W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 16W and 41W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1028 mb high pressure centered near the mouth of the Rio Grande continues to build into the basin. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas continue in the Bay of Campeche, otherwise winds have diminished to moderate, with moderate seas S of 25N and slight seas to the N. For the forecast, high pressure settling over the region will provide for moderate or weaker winds over the basin through Thu. Seas will be relatively low with these winds. Fresh west to southwest winds may develop over the northern Gulf by late week ahead of a low pressure system that will move across the southern United States. A cold front will extend from the low across the forecast waters, reaching the eastern Gulf on Sun while weakening, then move to south of the area Sun night. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms may accompany the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from far eastern Cuba to central Honduras. Fresh N winds and moderate seas are NW of the front, with fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas across most of the rest of the basin ahead of the front. A surface trough is along 72W from Hispaniola to Colombia. E of the trough, locally strong trades are present in the SE basin, and scattered moderate convection is ongoing within 120 nm of the Dominican Republic coast. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds will pulse in the south-central Caribbean into early Thu. A cold front that extends from eastern Cuba to 18N80W and to central Honduras will become stationary from Hispaniola to near 15N80W by late on Thu, then weaken and dissipate on Fri. Fresh north winds and rough seas behind the front reaching to near 86W will diminish north of 18N on Fri and south of 18N early on Sat. Rough seas in north swell over the Atlantic will subside by Thu evening. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for information on significant swell causing very rough seas in portions of the east-central Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N61W through the Turks and Caicos and into far eastern Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is along and within 60 nm E of the front. Moderate NW winds and seas are present W of the front. E of the front, fresh to locally strong SW winds and rough seas are present N of 25N, extending E to 55W. Farther E, a 1023 mb high pressure center near 28N51W is leading to a broad area of light to gentle winds N of 20N between 40W and 50W. Another cold front in the far E Atlantic extends from just W of the Canary Islands to 21N45W. Scattered moderate convection is approaching the Canary Islands in association with this front. N of 25N, strong winds are present on both sides of the boundary. For tropical waters S of 20N, mainly moderate NE to E trades dominate, with moderate to locally rough seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will weaken as it moves across the eastern offshore waters Thu, and while its southern portion becomes stationary. Fresh to locally strong southwest winds and rough seas will prevail ahead of the front, generally north of 26N, through tonight. Fresh to locally strong west winds and rough seas may develop off the coast of northern Florida on Thu as a cold front passes north of the waters. Weak high pressure will build over the western tropical Atlantic allowing for moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas over the rest of the waters for late week. The high pressure will begin to shift eastward on Sat as low pressure, with an attendant cold front, moves across the southern United States. The front will move across the basin starting late on Sat, reaching the eastern offshore waters Mon and and Mon night while weakening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected ahead and behind this front. Scattered showers and thunderstorms most likely will be accompanying the front.