Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Apr 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W to 03N22W. The ITCZ continues from 03N22W to 00N48W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 10W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A high pressure ridge extends southwestward from a 1016 mb high center over the NE Gulf to near Tampico, Mexico. Light winds and seas of 1-2 ft are in the vicinity of the high center. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are found west of the Yucatan peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will slowly weaken today. A weak pressure gradient across the basin will support gentle to moderate E to SE winds across most of the basin today. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas will follow a cold front moving across the northern Gulf tonight through the early part of the week. The front will stall from the Florida Straits to south Texas by late Mon then dissipate into mid week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the Caribbean basin. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range over the eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, seas of 2-4 ft prevail. For the forecast, a weaker than usual pressure gradient will support mainly gentle to moderate winds through the forecast period. Fresh NE winds may develop early next week across the Windward Passage associated with a late- season cold front moving into Cuba. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 30N73W to the central Bahamas. A surface trough is just off the coast of western Africa. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters, anchored by a 1024 mb high centered near 33N47W. Light to gentle winds are over the northern waters in the vicinity of the high. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds prevail. Seas of 7-9 ft are found S of 16N as well as east of 30W. Seas of 4-7 ft generally prevail elsewhere, except 3-4 ft over the far NW portion of the discussion waters. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned surface trough will dissipate today. High pressure will build into the area from the east in the wake of the trough. A cold front is forecast to move off the coast of northeast Florida Sun night. Expect fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas in the wake of the front as it reaches from Bermuda to the Florida Straits by late Mon, from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Tue, before stalling and dissipating along roughly 22N through mid week.