Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Apr 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues southwestward to near 03N20W and to 00S39W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm of the trough between 16W-19W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the trough between 20W-25W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 09N between 14W-16W, within 60 nm south of the trough between 28W-34W and within 60 nm north of the trough between 31W-35W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak 1015 mb high analyzed over the eastern Gulf at 27N86W maintains a weak pressure pattern over the eastern and central Gulf sections. A trough extends from Tampico, Mexico southeastward along the coast to Veracruz. The gradient in place is allowing for moderate to fresh east winds west of the Yucatan Peninsula and west of 90W, with light to gentle anticyclonic winds east of 90W. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are across the basin. Patches of low stratus-type clouds and fog producing visibility of 3 to 5 nm are seen over the far western Gulf. They are lifting to the northwest with the moderate to fresh southeasterly flow that is occurring over that section of the Gulf. For the forecast, the interaction between weak high pressure over the eastern Gulf and a trough that extends along the coast of Mexico from Tampico to Veracruz will produce moderate to fresh southeast winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin through early Wed. Elsewhere, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Fri night. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the northern Gulf Wed night into Thu and reach from South Florida to central Texas by late Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A trough analyzed from the Leeward Islands to the coast of Venezuela in combination with a broad upper-level trough is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across most of the eastern Caribbean. A relatively weak pressure across the basin is keeping moderate to fresh trades offshore NW Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras, and gentle to moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Slight seas prevail basin-wide per latest altimeter satellite data passes and recent buoy observations. For the forecast, a surface trough meandering across the Atlantic waters north of the Greater Antilles will continue to contribute to a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the central and eastern Caribbean Sea today resulting in mostly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas, except in the Gulf of Honduras where moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected through the week. Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the eastern and central Caribbean tonight through Thu as high pressure again builds north of the area in the wake of a cold front that will be moving across the western Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near 31N37W to 27N42W, where it becomes a trough to 22N50W and a dissipating warm front to 24N60W and to 24N65W. A trough extends from 24N65W to eastern Cuba. A trough is also analyzed from near 31N40W to 27N50W and northwestward to 29N60W. Seas of 8 to 9 ft in long-period northwest swell follow this trough. Patches of rain along with isolated showers and thunderstorms are noted from 20N to 28N between 49W and 62W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are from 24N to 29N between 64W and 68W. A cold front moved off the southeastern United States coast during the overnight hours, and is along a position from near 31N73W to inland the extreme northeast part of northern Florida. A trough is to its south from 30N78W to just east of the upper Florida Keys. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are seen from 27N to 30N between 74W and 77W and north of 30N between 70W and 74W. Fresh to strong northeast winds are behind the front along with seas of up to around 7 ft. Otherwise, high pressure is the main feature over the eastern part of the basin as a 1020 mb high center is analyzed near 30N26W. The related gradient is keeping moderate to fresh trades over most of the basin south of about 20N and east of 60W, as well as north of 20N and east of 30W. Seas with these trades are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere, with seas 4 to 6 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft elsewhere north of 26N between 39W and 56W. For the forecast west of 55W, a weakening remnant frontal trough lingering north of the Greater Antilles will dissipate this morning. Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds north of 25N east of 69W will gradually shift northeastward through Tue ahead of a cold front while increasing to fresh to strong speeds. A cold front extending from 31N76W to northeast Florida will reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by tonight, then from near 31N59W to 25N64W and weakening to the central Bahamas late Tue before shifting east of 55W early on Wed. Moderate to fresh northerly winds, and moderate to rough seas are expected north of 27N in the wake of the front through tonight. Looking ahead, another cold front is expected to move offshore northeast Florida late Thu or Thu night, and weaken as it reaches from near Bermuda to 28N72W and stationary to South Florida late Fri.