Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Feb 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warnings/Significant Swell... A cold front is analyzed from 31N62W southwestward to the northern coast of Haiti. A second cold front follows from 31N65W to 24N71W. Gale force winds prevail N of 27N between 60W-75W. Rough seas are noted N of 23N and W of 60W, with very rough seas up to 16 ft N of 26N between 65W and 77W. These conditions will follow the fronts through Sat as they merge and the new boundary moves E. A new low pressure system is expected to rapidly deepen across the W Atlantic tonight as it tracks eastward, producing a large area of gale-force winds mainly N of 27N. Rough to very rough seas will accompany these winds today, then as the low deepens even more and moves NE, seas in our area are expected to peak at 30-33 ft N of 28N between 50W-65W. Once the low has pulled farther northeastward into the north-central Atlantic, wind conditions should gradually improve starting Sun night, while the large and dangerous swells persist into early next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecasts at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on these events. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Liberia near 06.5N11W and runs southwestward to 04N15W. The ITCZ continues from 04N15W to 01N34W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 01N to 04N between 25W and 30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1025 mb high centered over the western Gulf is supporting generally gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf. Winds in the far northern Gulf are moderate to fresh. Seas range from 6-9 ft in the far SE Gulf near the Yucatan Channel and FL Straits, to 3-6 ft across much of the remaining Gulf, and 1-3 ft in the far NW Gulf along the TX coast. For the forecast, 1025 mb high pressure has shifted into the W Gulf offshore of Tampico, Mexico near 23N96.5W, Fresh NW to N winds and rough seas will diminish this afternoon across the southeast Gulf as high pressure persists across the western Gulf through Sat morning. Fresh to strong NW winds will follow another cold front that will move across the eastern Gulf Fri night and Sat. High pressure will build over the basin once again in the wake of that front and will remain in control of the weather pattern through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front curves southwestward from southwest Haiti to the waters offshore SE Jamaica. Fresh to strong northerly winds and 7 to 10 ft seas are ongoing behind the front and across much of the Caribbean W of 76W. Areas E of 76W are seeing mostly gentle to moderate trades and 4-7 ft seas prevail. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the far SW Caribbean S of 11N, in the vicinity of the Colombia Low and the East Pacific monsoon trough. For the forecast, a weakening cold front currently moving across the NW Caribbean, from Haiti to 15N77W, will stall from the eastern Dominican Republic to central Panama Sat, then will dissipate by Sat. Strong to near-gale N winds with rough seas will prevail across W and SW portions of the basin today, diminishing to fresh to strong winds tonight and continuing through Sat. Expect fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas between Colombia and Hispaniola early next week as high pressure builds north of the area after multiple Atlantic frontal passages. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warnings and Significant Swell areas. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed ahead of both fronts mentioned above, from 31N62W to the eastern Dominican Republic. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are forming along this trough N of 23N. In the east Atlantic, a dissipating cold front is analyzed from the coast of Morocco near 25N15W to 21.5N32.5W, where it becomes a dissipating stationary front that reaches to 23N45W. Outside the Gale Warning, strong to near-gale SW to NW winds and rough seas are noted north of 23N and west of 60W. To the east, north of 20N between 45W and 60W, fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas are present. For areas N of 20N and E of 40W, rough to very rough seas persist in decaying NW swell, with seas of 12-15 ft prevailing N of 26N and E of 30W, with highest seas N of the Canary Islands. Winds in this region are light to gentle due to a 1026 mb high centered near 29N29W. Farther south from 05N to 13N between 28N and 45W, a swath of fresh to strong trades is confirmed via scatterometer data. For much of the remaining tropical Atlantic east of 60W, moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate to locally rough seas prevail. For the forecast, gale force winds and very rough seas prevail N of 27N, on both sides of a pair of cold fronts that extend across the W Atlantic, from near Bermuda to Haiti and the SE Bahamas. The fronts will merge today and the new boundary will extend from 25N55W to eastern Hispaniola Sat morning, then weaken from 22N55W to the Leeward Islands by early Sun. A reinforcing front will move off the northeast Florida coast early Sat, and reach from 31N55W to the southern Bahamas and central Cuba by early Sun, then stall and dissipate along 22N through early next week. Gale to near storm-force winds and seas in excess of 20 ft will follow the second front N of 27N this weekend. Seas will gradually subside from west to east early next week.