Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Nov 01 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1015 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis reaches the Atlantic through the coast of W Africa near 15N17W, and continues southwestward to 13N20W, where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ then continues to 08N35W and to 08N58W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 06N to 13N between 16W-25W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 25W-34W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Fresh to strong east winds are over the NE Gulf along with seas of 4 to 6 ft. An upper-level shortwave trough as seen on water vapor imagery is shifting eastward across the NE Gulf. Increasing scattered to numerous thunderstorms are present north of 24N between 83W and 89W. This activity is being sustained by divergence aloft to the east of the shortwave trough. This activity is capable of producing strong gusty winds and heavy rainfall. Outside of the NE Gulf gusty winds produced by the shower and thunderstorm activity, overnight Ascat scatterometer data and buoy observations generally reveal light to gentle winds across the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient related to the strong high pressure ridging southward along the southeastern U.S. seaboard will maintain moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas across the north-central and NE Gulf through Mon night. A cold front will move into the NW Gulf Tue as a warm front develops over the NE Gulf. The warm front will slowly move northeastward away from the area Tue through Wed as the cold front slowly moves eastward across the Gulf, providing for areas of moderate winds and seas. The cold front will then weaken over the eastern Gulf Thu and Thu night while weak high pressure then builds over the western Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between higher pressure over the U.S. and the western Atlantic, and lower pressure over Colombia supports fresh trades along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in the south- central Caribbean offshore Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4 to 6 ft are across the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are elsewhere. Divergent flow aloft on the eastern side of a broad upper-level trough that stretches from the central Atlantic southwestward to the central Caribbean and to just north of Colombia is sustaining scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the eastern portion of the basin, and isolated showers and thunderstorms over the central portion. For the forecast, the moderate to fresh trades over the central and eastern Caribbean, and moderate to rough seas, will continue through Mon, with some areas of strong winds near the coast of Colombia and NW Venezuela. Winds and seas are expected to diminish basin-wide late Mon through Thu as broad low pressure with a relaxed pressure gradient gradually develops and then persists across the Atlantic NE of the Bahamas. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near 31N48W southwestward to 26N62W, and continues as a stationary front to 24N70W. Satellite imagery shows increasing numerous thunderstorms along and within 60 nm north of the frontal boundary between 58W and 62W, and also to west from 24N to 27N between 62W and 80W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm southeast of the boundary east of 58W. A secondary cold front extends from 31N60W to 30N69W. No significant convection is presently occurring with this front. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds along with seas of 7 to 9 ft are northwest of the first front, and also north of 24N west of 62W. Farther east, low pressure of 1011 mb is north of the area west of Madeira near 33N29W, with a cold front extending from it to 29N19W and to near 23N27W. An area of scattered moderate convection is east of this front to the along and inland the coast of Africa north of 22N. Moderate to fresh north winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft in north swell are behind the front north of 23N between 20W and 39. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will weaken this afternoon into this evening while it moves southeastward as high pressure in its wake builds across the western Atlantic. Mariners can expect widespread areas of fresh to locally strong northeast to east winds along with rough seas to near 11 feet from Mon night through Tue night over the waters N of about 26N and W of about 60W. The front is forecast to become nearly stationary near today through Mon night. A warm front will develop over the NE Gulf Tue, and move northeastward across the SW north Atlantic Wed. As the high pressure off of the U.S. east coast gradually shifts east, a weakening cold front will approach from the eastern Gulf Thu, then move offshore of Florida late Thu night.