Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon Apr 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W to near 00N28W. The ITCZ continues from that point to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate convection is noted withing 240 nm on either side of the boundaries. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak pressure gradient prevails across the basin. With this, moderate to fresh east winds prevail west of the Yucatan Peninsula and west of 90W, with light to gentle anticyclonic winds east of 90W. Seas of 3 to 5 ft are across the western half of the basin, and 1 to 3 ft across the eastern half. For the forecast, the pressure gradient across the basin will continue to produce moderate to fresh southeast winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin through early Wed. A diurnal trough will pulse moderate to fresh winds off the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through Fri night. A cold front will enter the northern Gulf Wed night into Thu and reach from South Florida to central Texas by late Fri. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A trough analyzed from eastern Puerto Rico to 13N66W in combination with a broad upper-level trough is supporting scattered showers across most of the eastern Caribbean. A weak pressure across the basin is keeping moderate to fresh trades offshore NW Colombia and in the Gulf of Honduras, and gentle to moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Slight seas prevail basin-wide per latest altimeter satellite data passes and recent buoy observations. For the forecast, high pressure will build north of the area, tightening the pressure gradient through today. The tighter pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh wind speeds over the eastern and central Caribbean tonight through Thu, reaching locally strong at times. In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected through Fri, increasing to fresh to strong speeds through Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A low pres is analyzed near 30N36W, with cold front from the low to 24N43W. A surface trough continues from that point to 23N72W. Scattered showers are noted along these features. Seas to 8 ft in long-period northwest swell follow the front/trough. To the west, a cold front moved off the southeastern United States coast during the overnight hours, analyzed in our area from 31N75W to 29N81W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 26N to 31N between 72W and 79W. Fresh to strong northeast winds are behind the front along with seas of up to around 8 ft. Otherwise, high pressure is the main feature over the eastern part of the basin. The related gradient is keeping moderate to fresh trades over most of the basin south of about 20N and east of 60W, as well as north of 20N and east of 30W. Seas with these trades are 5 to 7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere, with seas 4 to 6 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft elsewhere north of 26N between 39W and 56W. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will reach from near Bermuda to South Florida by tonight, then from near 31N59W to 25N64W and weakening to the central Bahamas late Tue before shifting east of 55W early on Wed. Moderate to fresh northerly winds, and moderate to rough seas are expected north of 27N in the wake of the front through tonight. Another cold front is expected to move offshore northeast Florida late Thu or Thu night, and weaken as it reaches from near Bermuda to 28N72W and stationary to South Florida late Fri.