Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun May 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 28W from 12N southward, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate convection, enhanced by the Monsoon Trough and nearby ITCZ, is from the equator to 05N between 26W and 31W. A tropical wave is analyzed along 58W, south of 12N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 09N between 58W and 61W, including coastal and inland areas of Guyana and Venezuela. A tropical wave in the western Caribbean is near 81W, south of 15N and into the Eastern Pacific region to near 05N. This wave is nearly stationary, with surface and upper air data from San Andres Island indicating the wave remains east of the island. No significant convection is noted at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near Dakar, Senegal and continues southwestward to 05N25W. The ITCZ extends from 03N31W to 01N50W. Outside of the convection related to the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 08N east of 20W. GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered moderate isolated strong convection persists from 24N to 31N between 90W and 97W. This includes a squall line analyzed along 25N between 91W and 97W. This convection, enhanced by upper level divergence, will continue through the afternoon, and provide for locally strong winds. Weak 1011 mb low pressure is co- located in the Bay of Campeche with the diurnal trough. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate SE winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail across the Gulf. For the forecast, the Atlantic ridge extends across Florida into the Gulf region. This system will continue to support a gentle to moderate E to SE wind flow through the middle of the week, with the exception of fresh to strong winds pulsing off NW Yucatan from the late afternoons and into the night time hours due to local effects associated with a thermal trough. An upper-level disturbance continues to enhance the development of numerous showers and thunderstorms over the western Gulf, more concentrated over the NW part of the basin. These thunderstorms are capable of producing gusty winds, frequent lightning and locally rough seas. The SE flow will continue to advect abundant tropical moisture through at least the middle of the week helping to induce more convective activity across the Gulf waters. Mariners are urged to keep up with the latest forecast. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the Colombian Low continues to support fresh to strong trades in the central Caribbean, including off the southern tip of Hispaniola, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, trades are moderate to fresh per the latest scatterometer data. Seas are 4-7 ft across the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean through at least Wed night. Fresh to locally strong trades will pulse each evening over the Gulf of Honduras through the period. Fresh trades elsewhere across the basin will begin to increase in coverage starting Mon as a stronger Atlantic high pressure begins to shift southeastward tightening the pressure gradient. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad subtropical ridge dominates the Atlantic waters, providing moderate to fresh trades and 4-7 ft seas across the basin. Winds are light to gentle north of 25N, in closer proximity to high pressures centered north of the area. For the forecast west of 55W, winds are forecast to increase over most of the waters S of 25N starting Mon, including the waters between Cuba and the Bahamas as well as the entrance to the Windward Passage as a stronger Atlantic high pressure begins to shift east-southeastward tightening the pressure gradient. The high pressure will then begin to weaken Wed allowing for the tight pressure gradient to slacken leading to diminishing winds. Fresh to strong trades will pulse north of Hispaniola through Tue night into Wed. The western part of a cold front will push south across the eastern portion of the area from tonight into early Mon before stalling near 27N, and dissipating on Tue. Fresh to strong northeast winds along with moderate to rough seas will follow the front, subsiding late Tue.