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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Mar 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0940 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... W Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move into the waters offshore of NE Florida by Sat morning, reach from Bermuda to West Palm Beach Sat night, and from 31N55W to the Turks and Caicos Islands Sun night before dissipating Tue. Strong to near gale-force NE winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, and rough to very rough seas will follow the front Sat through early Sun. Afterward, winds will gradually diminish in areal coverage through Thu. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 06N11W and continues southwestward to 00N20W. The ITCZ extends from 00N20W to 00N32W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the 05S to 07N between 10W and 46W. GULF OF AMERICA... A 1020 mb high pressure centered over the NE Gulf continues to extend a surface ridge across the remaining basin and provides light to gentle variable winds over much of the E Gulf, except for moderate NE to E winds in the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. Over the western half of the Gulf, low pressure over Texas and northern Mexico tightens the gradient of pressure, and support moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds. Seas are slight to moderate basin-wide. For the forecast, high pressure of 1020 mb over the NE Gulf will move NW and inland Louisiana this afternoon. A trough over the Bay of Campeche will support moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through Tue night. The next cold front will move into the northern Gulf early Sat morning, reach the southeast Gulf by Sun morning, and move southeast of the basin late on Sun. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas are expected in the wake of the front over the eastern Gulf Sat night through early Mon. The pressure gradient will remain strong enough to sustain fresh to strong east winds across the southeast Gulf and the Straits of Florida through the middle of the next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally near gale- force trades in the south-central Caribbean, including within the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 7-10 ft with these winds, mainly offshore the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere across the basin. Otherwise, moisture inflow from the tropical Pacific continue to fuel scattered showers over the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras as well as the offshore waters of Nicaragua. For the forecast, surface ridging over the subtropical Atlantic extending across the northern Caribbean combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to near gale-force trade winds and moderate to rough seas offshore Colombia through Tue night. Looking ahead, high pressure will build in the wake of a strong cold front forecast to move through the western Atlantic this weekend. The increased pressure gradient across the region will support fresh to strong NE winds and building seas in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola from Sat night through Tue night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING. A 1037 mb high over the north-central Atlantic near 45N37W extends a ridge across the subtropical Atlantic waters. A surface trough slightly weakens the ridge from 27N57W to 22N60W where it is generating scattered showers and tstms that extends between 51W and 69W. Winds over the central and eastern subtropical waters are moderate to locally fresh from the NE to E and seas are mainly moderate. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are also in the Great Bahama Bank while moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridging will dominate the forecast waters through late today supporting gentle to moderate easterly winds and moderate seas. A strong cold front will move into the waters offshore of NE Florida by Sat morning, reach from Bermuda to West Palm Beach Sat night, and from 31N55W to the Turks and Caicos Islands Sun night before dissipating Tue. Strong winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, and rough to very rough seas will follow the front Sat through early Sun. Then, strong high pressure in the wake of the front will cause fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas across most of the forecast region likely through Tue.