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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Oct 10 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Jerry is centered near 18.2N 61.6W at 10/0300 UTC or 90 nm E of the Northern Leeward Islands, moving NW at 15 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Seas are peaking near 25 ft just northeast of the center. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is from 12N to 20N between 55W-64W. On the forecast track, the center of Jerry will pass just east of the northern Leeward Islands tonight. Swells generated by Jerry are affecting the Leeward Islands, Windward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico. These swells are expected to spread toward the rest of the Greater Antilles over the next couple of days, are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for details. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Jerry NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Significant Rainfall Across Eastern Mexico: Convergent low-level winds and abundant tropical moisture will continue to trigger periodic heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms today, across eastern Mexico along the Bay of Campeche from near the border of Tamaulipas and San Luis Potosi States southward to central Veracruz States. Locally heavy downpours can still lead to flash and urban flooding, especially in low-lying areas and hilly terrains. Please stay up to date with the latest forecast and possible flood statements from your local weather agency for details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 36W from 20N southward, moving west around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is S of 13N between 32W-38W. A central Caribbean tropical wave is near 73W from Haiti southward to northeastern Colombia, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered thunderstorms are noted inland northern Colombia. A western Caribbean tropical wave is near 83W and S of 20N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Not significant convection is related to this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N16W to 09N23W. The ITCZ then continues from 09N23W to 06N58W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 04N to 12N and E of 20W, and from 05N to 13N between 26W and 45W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section on potential heavy rain across eastern Mexico. A stationary front is analyzed from 29N83W to 27N88W, then becomes weak to 27N97W. Scattered showers are noted along the front mainly E of 85W. In this area, fresh to strong NE winds prevail. High pressure north of the front is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds are noted across the Gulf. Slight seas are in the northeast Gulf and Bay of Campeche, while moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active off southwest Florida along a trough over the southeast Gulf. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also active over the west- central Gulf. For the forecast, strong high pressure N of the area combined with the frontal trough, forecast to persist over the far SE Gulf Fri through Sat, will promote moderate to fresh NE to E winds across much of the basin through Sat, with fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas over the NE Gulf waters tonight through Sat. Then, a ridge will dominate to Gulf region early next week producing mainly a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section about Tropical Storm Jerry. Refer to the Tropical Waves section for convection in the Caribbean Sea. Light to gentle NE to E trade winds and moderate seas prevail across the basin, except for slight seas over the northeast Caribbean. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Jerry will continue moving NW away from the area. Large E swell will continue to propagate across the Caribbean passages of the Leeward Islands through Fri, and then NE swell are expected to reach the Anegada Passage early Fri through Sat. High pressure will begin to build from the central Atlantic to the Bahamas late Sun and Mon to bring a return to easterly trade winds across the eastern Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section on Tropical Storm Jerry. A stationary front extends across the W atlantic along 30N and W of 79W. A surface trough is analyzed S of this front from 30N77W to 27N80W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near these features mainly W of 73W. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough to very rough seas are observed north of the front. To the E, another trough is analyzed along 67W and N of 23N. A broad area of scattered moderate to strong convection prevails E of this trough and N of T.S. Jerry mainly between 55W-66W. A stationary front curves west- southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N33W to 28N55W. Scattered showers are noted near the front and N of N of 25N. SE swell generated from Jerry is interacting with longer period NE swell to support rough seas between the front and Jerry, and between 55W and 70W. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas prevail for the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, Tropical Storm Jerry will move to 19.7N 62.5W Fri morning, 22.1N 63.1W Fri evening, 24.5N 63.1W Sat morning, 27.1N 62.8W Sat evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 29.5N 62.2W Sun morning, and move north of our waters Sun evening. An extratropical low pressure system is expected to develop offshore of north-central Florida by Sat and move northeastward through the weekend. Fresh to strong E winds are expected to occur north of a frontal boundary near 30N starting tonight. A frontal trough will develop W of the low on Sat across the extreme NW waters and north Florida, producing fresh to strong N to NE winds and building seas across the Florida coastal waters north of the NW Bahamas from Sat through Sun morning.