Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Jan 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: The next gap wind event across the Tehunatepec region is slated to begin this morning as a ridge continues to build across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico, behind a strong cold front currently moving across the Gulf of America. Wind are forecast to suddenly increase to 35 to 40 kt, with seas building to 9 to 12 ft by early in the afternoon. Winds will further increase to minimal storm force this evening, with seas building to around 28 ft tonight into Tue morning. At that time, gusty winds to near hurricane force may occur. Large seas generated from this strong gap wind event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 12 ft or greater reaching as far south as 10N by Tue morning. Marine interests transiting across or in the Gulf of Tehuantepec today through Tue should be aware of this very strong gap wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid this hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. Winds are forecast to diminish below storm-force by late Tue morning but strong gale-force winds of 40 to 45 kt will persist. Gale conditions are then forecast to continue through Thu morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on this event. Of note: The monthly distribution of Tehuantepec events shows that the largest number of gale force events occurs in December. Storm-force events occur most often in January. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia to 10N85W to 06N100W. The ITCZ continues from 06N100W to 05N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 126W and 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting light to gentle winds with moderate seas. In the Gulf of California, recent scatterometer data show moderate to locally fresh NW winds along the gulf while seas remain slight to 3 ft. Moderate to fresh N to NW winds are also offshore Jalisco where seas are 5 to 6 ft in NW swell. In Tehuantepec, a strong gap wind event has started with fresh to strong N winds. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas in NW swell dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore forecast waters. For the forecast, a very strong gap wind event is expected to continue in the Tehuantepec region this morning, with winds reaching gale-force speeds later this morning and storm-force by this evening. Very rough seas will be associated with these wind speeds. Please, see the Special Features section for more information on this event. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NW winds are expected in the Gulf of California today through Fri as a high pressure system settles over the SW of the United States. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE to E winds are across the Papagayo region and downwind to about 88W. Seas are 3 to 4 ft within these winds. Moderate N winds and slight seas prevail in the Gulf of Panama and downwind to about 05N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are noted with moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse in the Papagayo region today. Then, winds are forecast to increase to 20 to 25 kt tonight into Thu as high pressure builds N of the area in the wake of a cold front moving across the NW Caribbean. These winds will reach near gale-force, mainly at night Tue through Thu, with seas building to 11 ft. Moderate to locally fresh N winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Fri morning. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or weaker through Thu. Otherwise, seas generated by a very strong gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beginning this evening. The highest seas, in the 12 to 18 ft range in NW swell, are expected on Tue. Rough seas may persist through Thu night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge, anchored on a 1024 mb high pressure located near 31N127W, dominates the N waters, particularly N of 14N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is promoting an area of moderate to locally fresh trades N of the ITCZ to about 19N and W of 120W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within these winds per recent altimeter data. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are moderate in mixed NE wind wave and long period NW swell. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will move E through Tue as a cold front approaches the NW corner of the forecast waters. The front will reach from 30N138W to 28N140W by this evening, and from 30N134W to 25N140W by Tue morning. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead and behind the front by tonight, then winds will diminish 10 to 15 kt on Tue. Rough seas are forecast in the wake of the front, which is forecast to dissipate Tue night into Wed. Afterward, high pressure will build in the wake of the front.