Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jun 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 92W, south of 16N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 05N-12N between 86W-93W. A tropical wave is along 107W, south of 17N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 08N-18N between 105W-113W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W along the coast of Costa Rica to 12N96W. The monsoon trough reforms at 12N111W to 09N131W, where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ extends beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is present north of 03N east of 83W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 05N-12N between 86W-93W, from 08N-18N between 105W-113W, from 01N-04N between 114W-119W, and from 03N-10N west of 132W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Winds are NW to N moderate to fresh west and southwest of the Baja California peninsula, SE moderate fo fresh offshore of Manzanillo, and SE moderate to fresh over the Gulf of California. Elsewhere winds are gentle work weaker. Seas 4-6 ft in SW swell over all of the Pacific waters and are 2-4 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, surface troughing over the Baja California peninsula and the SW United States is promoting moderate to fresh SE winds over the Gulf of California tonight and tomorrow before diminishing. Lowering pressure well south of SE Mexico will help induce a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event from tomorrow night through Fri. These N to NE winds should peak at strong to locally near gale on Wed and Wed night. Elsewhere, winds and seas across the Mexican Offshores should be quiescent. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds are E moderate to fresh over the Gulf of Papagayo region. Elsewhere winds are gentle or weaker. Seas are 4-6 ft in SW swell. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is present north of 03N east of 83W. For the forecast, lowering pressure well south of SE Mexico and Central America will help induce a Gulf of Papagayo region gap wind event beginning tonight, lasting for the next several days. These NE winds should peak at strong from tomorrow through Thu. Elsewhere winds should remain quiescent until the end of the week. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue over the waters west of Colombia and south of Panama through tomorrow night. Large S swell should reach the equatorial waters Wed through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extending from 30N130W to 20N110W along with lower pressure over the ITCZ is forcing generally gentle to moderate NE trades. Winds south of the ITCZ are generally moderate SE. Showers and thunderstorms have become more concentrated today with the tropical wave along 107W, now known as Invest EP94. Winds are SE moderate to fresh from 15-20N between 103W-109W. Large SW swell are occurring just south of the equator between 100W-120W leading toward 8-9 ft seas. Elsewhere winds are gentle or weaker and seas are 5-7 ft. For the forecast, EP94 is forecast to move westward to west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt across the central portion of the East Pacific basin, and some additional development is possible through midweek before environmental conditions become unfavorable late this week. Looking ahead, a low pressure system is expected to form late this week several hundred miles offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some slow development of this system is possible after that time while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt.