Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL Issued by NWS Ocean Prediction Center Washington DC 1605 UTC Thu Aug 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central East Pacific (Invest EP93): Showers and thunderstorms continue to show signs of organization in association with a low pressure system located about 780 nautical miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions are expected to support continued development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form later today or tonight. The system is forecast to move west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, well offshore of Mexico. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. Western East Pacific (Invest EP94): Showers and thunderstorms associated with a low pressure area located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands have become a little better organized. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the next days while the system drifts to the northeast, before turning westward this weekend. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 82W mainly north of the area, north of 08N near the border of Panama and Costa Rica, moving westward at around 20 kt. Any nearby convection is described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section below. The axis of a tropical wave is along 92.5W north of 04N to near the border of Guatemala and Mexico, moving westward at around 15 kt. Any nearby convection is described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N79W to 11N86W to 08N96W to low pressure (EP93) near 09N111W to 14N121W to 19N126W to low pressure (EP94) near 11N135W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered to numerous isolated to scattered strong from 04N to 16N between 79W and 121W, from 07N to 10N between 118W and 125W, and from 07N to 13N between 130W and 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on low pressure Invest EP93 near 09N111W with the high chance for tropical cyclone formation. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds continue to blow in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas to around 8 ft. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas, except slight in the Gulf of California. Active showers and thunderstorms are present over the outer offshore waters areas of southern and southwestern Mexico as described in the monsoon trough section above with locally higher winds and seas possible there. For the forecast, an area of low pressure, Invest EP93, centered well southwest of southern Mexico has a chance for tropical cyclone formation, but will stay outside of the offshore waters as it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt through Sun. The center of the low pressure will make its closest point of approach within 120 nm to the southwest of Clarion Island Fri night into Sat. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sun with locally rough seas there at times. A surge of fresh to strong southeasterly winds likely associated with convective complexes may move up the central and northern Gulf of California both Fri and Sat nights. Looking ahead, another area of low pressure could form this weekend well to the south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for some gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form by early next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly gap winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo well downwind to near 10N93W with 5 to 6 ft seas. Winds are moderate or weaker across the offshore waters, with moderate seas, except slight near the coasts of Colombia and eastern Panama. Active showers and thunderstorms are present over the outer offshore waters areas of southern and southwestern Mexico as described in the monsoon trough section above with locally higher winds and seas possible there. For the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the Sat night, then moderate to fresh thereafter, with associated moderate to fresh winds extending well downwind to the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds may freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into early next week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the monsoon trough. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about low pressure Invest EP93 with the high chance of tropical cyclone formation, and low pressure, Invest EP94 in the far west-central waters, also with the high chance of tropical cyclone formation. The remnant low of Post-Tropical Iselle is near 23N126W with fresh to strong winds around rough to very rough seas from 19N to 29N between 121W and 132W. Otherwise, mainly moderate winds prevail north of the monsoon trough away from remnant Iselle, EP93 and EP94. South of the monsoon trough, mainly moderate to winds prevail except locally fresh south of 05N and west of 105W. Active showers and thunderstorms are present over the outer offshore waters areas of southern and southwestern Mexico as described in the monsoon trough section above with locally higher winds and seas possible there. For the forecast, the remnant low of Iselle will gradually open up into a trough by the upcoming weekend while remnant winds and seas persist as it shifts west-northwest to 140W where it will reach by the end of the weekend. Other than the two remaining Special Features areas, Invest EP93 and Invest EP94, above, large southwesterly swell will impact the southern waters through tonight before decaying. Looking ahead, much larger and more expansive southwesterly swell may impact the southern waters by early next week. Little change is forecast elsewhere away from the Special Features areas.