Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Sep 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0855 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Marie is centered near 21.4N 119.7W at 05/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 17N to 24N and between 115W and 123W. A general NW motion is expected to continue for the next few days. A gradual weakening trend is expected to continue for the next several days. Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico, the Baja California Peninsula, and Southern California for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 106W, extending from SW Mexico to 04N, moving west at 5-10 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 12N94W to 12N110W and then continues from 12N123W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 02N to 15N and east of 117W and from 07N to 14N and west of 115W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Marie centered southwest of Baja California, Mexico. Away from the impacts of Hurricane Marie to the offshore waters of Baja California, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are evident across the remaining offshore waters of Mexico. For the forecast, Hurricane Marie is near 21.4N 119.7W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Marie will move to 22.1N 120.5W this afternoon, 22.9N 121.5W Sun morning, 23.6N 122.4W Sun afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 24.3N 123.4W Mon morning, 24.9N 124.5W Mon afternoon, and 25.7N 125.8W Tue morning. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves to the 28.2N 127.6W early Wed. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are expected to develop in the offshore waters of Baja California and N Gulf of California early next week as Marie moves away. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec may occur by the middle of next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure centered north of the Caribbean Sea supports moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 5-7 ft across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Farther south, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are found south of 04N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms dot the waters off Central America and Colombia, producing gusty winds and higher seas. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge across the western Atlantic will sustain fresh E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo into early next week. Thereafter, the gradient is expected to tighten resulting in strong gap winds and locally rough seas. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are expected in the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands over the next several days, decreasing some Sun and Mon. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information about Hurricane Marie located southwest of Baja California, Mexico. Aside from the impact of Hurricane Marie in the NE waters, fresh to strong cyclonic winds and rough to very rough seas are occurring from 18N to 28N and west of 136W associated with the outer eastern quadrant of Hurricane Karina that continues to move away from the eastern Pacific basin. Meanwhile in the eastern waters, a cross equatorial southerly swell is producing seas to 8 ft south of 08N and between 91W and 112W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds with seas of 5-7 ft are prevalent across the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. For the forecast, Hurricane Marie is near 21.4N 119.7W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Marie will move to 22.1N 120.5W this afternoon, 22.9N 121.5W Sun morning, 23.6N 122.4W Sun afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 24.3N 123.4W Mon morning, 24.9N 124.5W Mon afternoon, and 25.7N 125.8W Tue morning. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves to the 28.2N 127.6W early Wed. The cross equatorial southerly swell region west of the Galapagos Islands is expected to diminish below 8 ft tonight. Meanwhile, an area of low pressure may develop well offshore of southwestern Mexico early next week. Gradual development is possible, and a tropical depression could form around the middle of next week while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. This system has a medium chance of tropical formation over the next 7 days.