Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected

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Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Oct 25 2026 Corrected Special Features section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES...Corrected Recently downgraded Tropical Storm Vance is centered near 14.9N 104.2W, or about 270 nm WSW of Acapulco, Mexico at 25/2100 UTC, moving north-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Vertical wind shear and relatively dry mid-level air are negatively impacting Vance's structure. Satellite imagery shows numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 15N to 17N between 103W and 106W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of a line from 14N103W to 14N104W and to 14N106W. A northwestward to west-northwestward motion at a slower forward speed is expected over the next couple of days, followed by a turn toward the north around the middle portion of the week. Vance is expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain, with isolated higher totals of 7 inches possible, across Colima, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, along with western portions of Michoacán, Jalisco, and Durango. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. Swell generated by Vance will affect portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over Mexico from strong high pressure ridging is currently supporting north to northeast winds of 25 to 30 kt in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as seen in a recent Ascat data pass. These winds are expected to pulse back up to gale-force tonight, then diminish to just below gale-force by early Mon afternoon as the gradient slackens some. Resultant seas will slowly subside through Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the southwestern Caribbean Sea near 12N76W southwestward to across central Panama, and continues to 08N82W to 05N93W and to 09N99W. It resumes well to the SW of of Vance at 08N113W to 06N123W to low pressure near 08N131W 1011 mb and to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm either side of the trough between 93W-98W, and within 60 nm north of the trough between 87W-93W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm north of the trough between 138W-140W, and also within 60 nm south of the trough between 128W-130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Vance, and on a Gale warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Tropical Storm Vance, winds are moderate or weaker as seen on recent ASCAT data passes. Seas are moderate away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, except slight in the Gulf of California away from the entrance. For the forecast, recently downgraded Tropical Storm Vance will maintain intensity as it moves to near 15.0N 104.8W late tonight, then begin to weaken as it moves to near 15.4N 105.5W Mon afternoon with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, to near 16.0N 106.2W late Mon night, to near 16.9N 106.6W Tue afternoon with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt, to near 17.7N 107.0W late Tue night and to near 19.0N 107.2W Wed afternoon. Vance is forecast to become post-tropical as it moves near to near 21.0N 107.4W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Elsewhere, north to northeast near gale gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to pulse back up to gale-force tonight, then diminish to just below gale- force by early Mon afternoon as the gradient slackens some. Resultant seas will slowly subside through Tue. These winds will pulse at fresh to strong speeds through most of the week. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse nearshore Baja California Norte through Tue evening. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas will prevail elsewhere away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except mainly slight seas in the Gulf of California. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and moderate seas are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with moderate seas, except slight seas nearshore Colombia. For the forecast, fresh northeast to east winds will pulse tonight in the Papagayo region and again on Wed night, then be at gentle to moderate speeds during the rest of the period. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will continue elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Vance. High pressure covers the area generally north of about 18N and west of 120W. Latest Ascat data passes captured an area of fresh northeast trades from 14N to 19N between 120W and 130W. Seas with these winds are about 5 to 6 ft. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere over this part of the discussion area along with mostly moderate seas per latest altimeter data passes. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance will maintain intensity as it moves to near 15.0N 104.8W late tonight, then begin to weaken as it moves to near 15.4N 105.5W Mon afternoon with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt, to near 16.0N 106.2W late Mon night, to near 16.9N 106.6W Tue afternoon with maximum sustained winds 45 kt gusts 55 kt, to near 17.7N 107.0W late Tue night and to near 19.0N 107.2W Wed afternoon. Vance is forecast to become post- tropical as it moves near to near 21.0N 107.4W Thu afternoon with maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will persist into around the middle part of the week. Swell generated from a frontal system just northwest of the discussion waters is expected to usher in rough seas to the SE of 30N140W beginning tonight along with fresh southeast to south winds over the far NW portion of the area. A tightening pressure gradient related to the frontal system will boost these winds to fresh to strong speeds on Tue, over the waters roughly north of about 28N and west of 138W. Seas of 7 to 9 ft are expected with these winds. Looking ahead, a new set of southerly swell is expected to spread into the south-central waters starting late on Mon, building seas to a rough state over the waters south of about 05N between 105W and 130W by late Wed night. These seas are expected to linger through at least Thu night.