Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Oct 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Simon is centered near 19.3N 108.3W at 2100 UTC, moving southwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are near 18 ft. Simon remains a small system, with northerly vertical wind shear currently weakening the system and pushing convection to the south of center. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is within 150 nm S and SW of the center. The hurricane is moving slowly southwestward within very weak steering currents. This will likely cause the system to meander well offshore of west- central Mexico during the next day or so with little change in intensity forecast. By Thu evening, a northwestward or north- northwestward turn is expected to commence. Interests in Baja California Sur should continue to closely monitor the latest updates. Watches or warnings could be required for portions of Baja California Sur over the next day or two. Large swells generated by Simon will likely affect portions of the coast of west- central Mexico and Baja California Sur over the next several days. These swells are likely to cause large and powerful surf and life- threatening rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Simon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Trudy is centered near 11.9N 100.0W at 2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are estimated at around 20 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 97W and 103W. Trudy is forecast to continue on a general northwestward to west-northwestward motion the next few days. Trudy is expected to rapidly intensify and should become a hurricane within 24 hours, reach major hurricane status somewhere around 48 hours and continue to intensify for around 60-72 hours before starting a weakening trend. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the coast of southwestern and west- central Mexico late this week and into the weekend. There is an increasing risk of wind, rain, and storm surge impacts, and watches could be required for a portion of these areas later today or tonight. Swells generated by Trudy will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico Thu into the weekend, and southern Baja California later this weekend. These swells are likely to cause large and powerful surf and life- threatening rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Trudy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N73W to 10N79W to 10.5N92W, then resumes from near 08N101W to 05N112W. The ITCZ extends from 05N112W to 03N127W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 08.5N between 83W and 94W, and from 00N to 04.5N between 99W and 114W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 00N to 07N W of 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Trudy. Aside from conditions associated with Simon and Trudy, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds prevail across the waters west of Baja California and extend to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range in merging SW and NW swell. Fresh northerly winds, and moderate seas to 6 ft are over the northern Gulf of California and spread through the Tiburon Basin. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, are over the remainder of the Gulf of California. Fresh N to NE winds continue to spill our of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and extend southwestward to the northern periphery of Trudy. Seas to 8 ft and greater extend to the north of Trudy to 15N between 96W and 100W. Light to gentle winds, and moderate seas, are noted elsewhere. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms associated with Trudy are within 30 nm of the coasts from Chiapas to central Guerrero. For the forecast, Hurricane Simon will drift slowly S to SW through Thu, reaching near 19.1N 108.4W Thu afternoon, then begin to move north-northwestward, reaching near 20.3N 109.5W Fri afternoon, where it will weaken to a tropical storm, then reach near 22.8N 111.5W Sat afternoon, near 24.9N 113.2W Sun afternoon as a tropical depression, then reach near 26.7N 114.2W as a remnant low. To the E, Tropical Storm Trudy will move to near 12.5N 100.8W tonight as it strengthens to a hurricane, reach near 13.2N 101.4W Thu afternoon, near 14.0N 101.7W Thu night, near 14.9N 102.0W Fri afternoon as a major hurricane, and near 16.9N 103.3W Sat afternoon. Trudy will then begin to weaken and veer more northwestward, reaching near 18.8N 105.3W Sun afternoon and near 19.4N 107.2W Mon afternoon. Elsewhere rough seas in NW swell west of Baja California will gradually diminish through Thu. A Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected late this week through the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of America, with gale-force winds possible Sat night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds and seas continue to gradually diminish across the outer offshore waters to the southwest of Guatemala as Trudy moves westward and away from the area. Moderate easterly gap winds extend across the Papagayo region to near 87W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas to 6 ft in SW swell prevail over the remainder of the offshore waters. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have develop across the near and offshore waters from Panama to Nicaragua. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds, and moderate seas dominated by SW swell across much of the forecast waters through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. New SW swell will bring rough seas over the waters south and west of the Galapagos Islands Fri through Sat. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and rough seas cover the waters from 14N to 26N and west of 115W, where an old cold front has recently dissipated. Seas are 9 to 9 ft n NW swell across this area. Light to gentle winds and moderate to rough seas in merging NW and SW swell generally prevail S of 20N W of 100W, except for moderate winds near the equator. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 210 nm S of the monsoon trough between 100W and 115W. For the forecast, large SW swell moving into the regional waters today will raise seas to 8 ft and greater to the S of 07N and west of 105W over the next couple of days, followed by another pulse of large S-SW swell arriving into the waters W of 100W Wed night.