Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu May 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 97W from offshore Oaxaca southward is moving W at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 92W and 102W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N114W. The ITCZ extends from 07N125W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is present from 03N to 09N E of 92W, including the offshore waters of Panama and Colombia. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 108W and 114W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 102W and 108W and from 06N to 09N W of 135W ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient prevails over the region, leading to mainly light to gentle winds. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are impacting waters near Cabo San Lucas as modest ridging builds in from the N Pacific. Seas are moderate in the offshore waters, and slight in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will dominate through late week, leading to moderate seas and moderate or weaker winds. By late weekend and early next week, ridging building SW toward the region will lead to moderate to locally fresh winds offshore Baja California, along with a slight increase in seas. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are in the Papagayo region, with moderate N gap winds in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, outside of of the convection that is described in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section above, N of the Monsoon Trough, light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas dominate, with gentle to moderate mainly southerly winds and 4 to 6 ft seas to the south. For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo region. otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell will prevail into the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak low pressure that had been W of Baja California has devolved into a surface trough that extends from 26N119W to 23N123W. Shower activity that had been in the vicinity has dissipated. Farther south, a 1008 mb low pressure is near the monsoon trough around 10N120W. Convection near this low is described in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section above. A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from a 1035 mb high near 37N144W across 30N140W. This feature is maintaining moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft north of the ITCZ and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate N to NE to E winds with 5 to 7 ft in mixed NW and S swells exist north of the ITCZ east of 125W. South of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate S to SE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft in moderate southerly swell prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will gradually weaken while shifting southwestward through the end of the week. This will allow winds and seas north of the ITCZ to subside to between gentle to moderate, and 5 to 6 ft, respectively, by this weekend. Little change is expected S of the ITCZ into the weekend.