Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jul 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 84W to the north of 06N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Any nearby convection is described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. A new tropical wave is analyzed along 107W, from 02N to 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Any nearby convection is described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. A tropical wave is analyzed along 131W from 02N to 16N, moving westward at around 10-15 kt. Any nearby convection is described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N78W to 09N85W to 07N90W. The ITCZ extends from 07N90W to 07N105W, from 07N109W to 09N130W, and from 08N135W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 05N to 15N between 95W and 105W, from 05N to 10N between 115W and 125W, and from 08N to 12N between 130W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to locally strong NW winds and 6-7 ft seas are observed in recent satellite data off Baja California Norte between high pressure west of the area and lower pressure over northwest Mexico. Farther south, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds are active across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with 5-7 ft seas. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4-6 ft seas are noted elsewhere, except 1-3 ft seas across the Gulf of California. Thunderstorms are active inland from Jalisco to Sonora, and gusty winds may be occurring near the coast. For the forecast, the ridging will persist off Baja California through mid week, with lower pressure inland over northwest Mexico. This pattern will support fresh to occasionally strong NW winds off Baja California Norte through tonight, with rough seas in NW swell near Guadalupe Island into Thu. The winds will diminish Thu, as low pressure moves off the Pacific into the lower Colorado River Valley. This will result in fresh to strong S winds and rough seas late Thu into Fri over the Gulf of California. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the week. Looking ahead, lowering pressure across the tropical eastern Pacific will induce fresh to strong winds and occasionally rough seas offshore southern Mexico by the weekend. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated a pulse of fresh to strong NE to E gap winds persist across the Papagayo region and Nicaragua, extending offshore to near 90W. Seas are estimated to be 6-9 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds are elsewhere to the N of 08N. Moderate N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama downwind to near 07N, with 4-6 ft seas. Moderate SE winds are across the offshore waters of the Galapagos Islands, where seas are 5-7 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle winds are across the remainder of the waters, along with 4-6 ft mainly in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE-E gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo region through late Sun, mainly at night and into the morning hours. Cross equatorial SW swell will move through the waters off Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Wed, with seas peaking around 9 ft. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere. Looking ahead, lowering pressure across the tropical eastern Pacific will induce fresh to strong winds and occasionally rough seas offshore El Salvador and Guatemala by Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A trough, the remnant of Douglas, is along 137W/138W from 23N to 29N. Elsewhere, a broad ridge dominates the waters north of 15N, supporting moderate NE winds and 5-7 ft seas in a mix of N and SW swell. Fresh NE winds and seas 7-8 ft are also noted farther S ahead of the tropical wave near 131W, specifically from 10N to 20N between 130W and 140W. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere. Long period SW swell to 8 ft is reaching 05N between 90W and 120W. Combined seas are mainly 5-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas will accompany the tropical wave near 131W at it moves westward at 10-15 kt, reaching 135W by tonight, and past 140W by late Fri. Farther N, swell of 8-9 ft will persist north of 25N to the E of 125W through Fri. Farther S, large swell to 7-8 ft will persist south of 05N or so between 95W and 120W through Fri.