Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Mar 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1400 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough is analyzed from 06N77W to 03.4S83.5W. The ITCZ extends from 03.4S110W to 03.4S117W. Another ITCZ extends from 03N132W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 75 nm of the coast of Colombia and Ecuador, and from 02N to 05.5N between 132W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure is starting to build SE toward Baja California, causing moderate to fresh NW winds offshore Baja California Norte. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is leading to light to gentle winds. Moderate seas prevail over the open waters off Mexico, with slight seas over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient offshore Baja California will increase winds to fresh to locally strong through tonight N of Cabo San Lazaro. The pressure gradient between high pressure over NE Mexico and the equatorial trough will support strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehunatepec tonight and Tue night. High pressure will build over the waters N of Punta Eugenia by mid-week. This will further tighten the pressure gradient to support fresh to strong NW winds and building seas off Baja California. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong gap winds are in the Papagayo region, and also in the Gulf of Panama, with seas in both areas at 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, winds are mainly light to gentle with slight to moderate seas. Scattered moderate convection has moved offshore Ecuador and Colombia and is impacting nearshore waters. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected in the Papagayo area through through the week. Winds will increase to 30 kt late tonight into Tue morning with seas building to 8 to 9 ft downwind of the Papagayo region to near 90W. Fresh N gap winds and moderate seas will pulse in the Gulf of Panama and just S of the Azuero Peninsula, except fresh to strong trough Tue night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered just N of the region is dominating much of the waters N of 10N. This is leading to mainly moderate or weaker NE to E winds N of the Equator along with moderate seas, except to fresh from 05N to 22N and W of 135W with seas to rough. A surface trough is analyzed from 06N123W to 00N120W with scattered moderate convection noted from 01N to 08N between 117W and 125W. For the forecast, little change in marine conditions is expected into mid week. High pressure will build over the area Wed and Thu, tightening the pressure gradient. As this occurs, areas of locally strong winds and rough seas are possible N of 15N and W of 115W for the latter half of the week.