Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jan 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong gale force winds of 40 kt is likely occurring across the Tehuantepec region and downwind to near 13N. Unfortunately scatterometer data missed the area earlier this afternoon. However, earlier this afternoon an altimeter pass indicates seas of 10 to 13 ft within these winds. A building ridge across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico and the western Gulf of America supports this gap wind event. Winds are forecast to further increase to 45 kt tonight, with seas building to 16 or 17 ft. Seas generated from this event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far west as 105W by Fri morning. Marine interests transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and early Fri should be aware of this gap wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. Gale conditions are expected to continue through early Fri morning. Another gap wind event reaching gale force is forecast to begin Sat night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 11N74W to 08.5N84W to 05N106W. The ITCZ continues from 05N106W to 08N115W, then it resumes from 08N118N to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N E of 86.5W to the coast of Colombia. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Tehuantepec region. Refer to the Special Features section above for more details. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing light to gentle NW to N winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft in NW swell. Moderate NW winds are noted over most of the central and southern Gulf of California, with seas of 1 to 3 ft. Gentle winds and slight seas prevail elsewehre across the Gulf of California. Moderate NW winds and moderate seas are noted near Cabo Corrientes. Outside of the Tehuantepec area, light to gentle winds and moderate seas in NW swell prevail elsewhere across the Mexican offshore forecast waters. For the forecast, strong gale force winds and very rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri morning. Please, see the Special Features section above for more information. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate NW winds are expected with seas 3 ft or less. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail throughout the forecast period. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds prevail across the Papagayo region and downstream to near 87W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft within these winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds are observed with light to moderate seas primarily in northerly swell. For the forecast, building high pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo through the forecast period, except for tonight into Friday morning when strong to near gale-force winds are expected with moderate to rough seas. Another round of near gale-force winds with rough seas is possible Sun night into Mon. Pulsing moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama through Mon night. Seas generated by the gap wind events in the Gulfs of Tehuantepec and Papagayo will propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador tonight through late Fri with seas likely building to 11 or 12 ft. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere through the forecast period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough is analyzed from 08N117W to 15N111W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 12N to 18N between 108W and 115W in association with this trough. Moderate easterly winds and moderate seas are associated with this feature based on scatterometer and altimeter data. Otherwise, high pressure located well N of area has a ridge extending across most of the waters N of 20N and W of 110W. A gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow is noted under the influence of the ridge. Seas of 8 ft, primarily in long period NW swell dominates the waters from 12N to 25N W of 131W. This swell event will continue to subside tonight. Elsewhere across the forecast waters, moderate or weaker winds and seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned trough is forecast to slowly move westward over the next couple of days. A weak low pressure may develop near the northern end of the trough by Sun. Mainly moderate winds and moderate to locally rough seas will be related to this feature. Seas associated with long period NW swell across the west-central and NW waters will continue to subside to less than 8 ft by tonight. Another long period swell event will reach the NW forecast area Fri night, with seas likely building to around 11 ft. A cold front will also reach the NW corner of the forecast area by Fri night, extending from 30N138W to beyond 22N140W by Sat morning, and from 30N135W to 21N140W by Sun morning, then it will stall and dissipate. Fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas are expected ahead of the front north of 27N and west of 135W while moderate W to NW and rough seas in NW swell are forecast in the wake of the front.