Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Jun 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0835 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 90W, south of 16N, moving west at 5 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. A tropical wave is along 98W, south of 15N, moving west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 13N and between 93W and 103W. A tropical wave is along 117W, south of 18N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 04N to 17N and between 107W AND 125W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W to 07N92W to 15N104W to 04N130W. The ITCZ stretches from 04N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident south of 10N and west of 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A moderate pressure gradient results in moderate to locally fresh NW winds in the offshore waters of Baja California, especially north of Cabo San Lazaro and off Cabo San Lucas. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate or weaker winds are found in the rest of the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the waters described. For the forecast, a ridge will persist across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the weekend promoting gentle to moderate northerly winds, except for locally fresh speeds pulsing at night. Looking ahead, a surface trough moving across the Bay of Campeche will force fresh to strong northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Tue night into Wed night, with seas building to 8 or 9 ft by Wed night. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The subtropical ridge centered well north of the area supports moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending downstream to 90W. Farther south, moderate southerly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of 02S. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are expected in the Papagayo region into early next week. Winds will freshen to strong speeds starting late Mon with seas building to 8 or 9 ft by late Tue. The gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will produce seas to 8 ft in the far offshore waters of Guatemala by midweek. Meanwhile, mainly moderate southerly winds and moderate seas will prevail across the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong high pressure centered well north of the area extends a weak ridge into the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. Moderate NE winds and moderate seas are occurring from 08N to 22N and west of 125W. In the meantime, moderate SE winds and a cross equatorial swell producing seas of 6-8 ft are noted south of 05N and east of 120W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, additional pulses of SW swell will continue to propagate across the forecast waters E of 120W generating moderate to locally rough seas. Otherwise, little changes are expected in winds and seas through the weekend and into early next week as a ridge remains in control of the weather pattern across the area. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.