Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jun 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure area south of Clarion Island (EP94): 1007 mb low pressure is centered near 18N116W or about 80 NM WSW of Clarion Island, along a tropical wave. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is active active within 60 NM of the center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is also noted from 10N-16N between 113W-120W. Peak winds with the low are near 25 kt with highest seas of 7 ft. A tropical depression could still form today while environmental conditions remain marginally conducive. This system is moving to the west to west- northwest at 15 to 20 kt, and by Thursday it is forecast to move across cooler waters, ending its chances for further development. There is a medium...50 percent...chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 92W, moving west around 20 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 08N-15N between 90W-96W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 103W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is active from 09N-15N between 98W-104W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 116W, south of 20N, moving westward at around 15 kt. An area of low pressure, Invest EP94, is along this tropical wave near 18N116W. Please see the Special Features section above for more information on this low pressure system. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica at 08N83W to 11N106W to 07N130W. The ITCZ extends from 07N130W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N-12N between 105W-112W and from 00N-09N between 125W-133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to near-gale N to NE gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning with seas 7-9 ft. Winds are SE to E fresh to strong with seas to 7 ft west of the Revillagigedo Islands in association with Invest EP94. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 5-6 ft in S to SW swell for Pacific waters and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is active from 09N-15N between 98W-104W in association with a tropical wave. For the forecast, low pressure over the deep tropics is inducing strong to locally near-gale N to NE gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec today. Fresh to strong gap winds pulsing mainly late at night and morning are expected thereafter through Fri. Elsewhere, winds and seas across the Mexican Offshores should be quiescent. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds are NE fresh to strong in the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas 7-8 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 4-7 ft in S to SW swell. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the NE Pacific monsoon trough is supporting a Gulf of Papagayo region gap wind event. Fresh to strong NE to E winds should last into early next week. Elsewhere, winds should remain quiescent until the end of the week. Large S swell moving into the equatorial waters will continue through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for more information on Invest EP94. A surface ridge extends from a 1033 mb high at 38N151W east- southeastward to 30N130W to 23N112W. The moderate pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the ITCZ/monsoon trough is forcing only moderate to locally fresh trades. Aside from winds from EP94, the remainder of the winds across the open Pacific are moderate or weaker. Seas are 5-8 ft in mixed N and S to SW swell. For convection, see sections above about tropical waves and the ITCZ/monsoon trough. For the forecast aside from EP94, another low pressure system is likely to form this weekend or early next week over the central portion of the East Pacific basin. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the early to middle part of next week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Tropical cyclone formation chance is near 0 percent through 48 hours, but is medium...60 percent...through 7 days. Elsewhere, large seas due to mixed SW and SE swell will be moving across our southern border tonight through the weekend. 8 ft seas should reach up to at most 02N before diminishing.