Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jul 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Fausto is centered near 16.9N 121.4W at 22/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are near 28 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is occurring within 75 nm of center. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 12N to 17N between 116W and 122W. Fausto continues WNW over open waters. A continued west-northwestward to westward motion, along with an increase in forward speed, is expected over the next several days. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, followed by slow weakening on Friday and into the weekend. Swells generated by Fausto are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula and are spreading northward toward the coast of southern California. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Fausto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 91W N of 05N extending into Guatemala, moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen where the wave meets the monsoon trough from 04N to 08N between 87W and 94W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 1006 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 06N85W to 1008 mb low pressure near 07N91W to 05N105W, then resumes SW of Fausto from 13N128W to beyond 09N140W. Clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are noted from 04N to 08N E of 106W to the coast of Colombia. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Fausto, centered about 745 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California. Fausto is exiting to the W of the Revillagigedo Islands, leaving gentle to moderate N to NE and seas of 6 to 8 ft across those area waters. To the north of Fausto, a weak ridge extends across the offshore waters of Baja California supporting gentle to moderate NW winds. Seas generating by Fausto are spreading across the area, with seas up to 8 ft across the outer offshore waters. Moderate to fresh NW winds are noted near Cabo San Lucas and in the vicinity of Cabo Corrientes where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Gentle to moderate NW to W winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, except for fresh to locally strong N gap winds in a narrow plume spilling out of Tehuantepec. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is near the SW Mexican coast affecting the waters from 16N to 19N E of 106W. For the forecast, as Hurricane Fausto moves westward and away from the region, high pressure will begin to build across the Baja California offshore waters tonight through Thu to produce moderate to fresh NW winds with isolated areas of strong winds near the coasts during the afternoon and evening hours. Swells generated by Fausto have begun to reach the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula and SW Mexico, and will persist through Thu before fading. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected. Fresh northerly winds are forecast in the Tehuantepec region during the overnight and early morning hours through the week, with locally rough seas. Looking ahead, the aforementioned tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while it moves generally west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days, and a low chance during the next 48 hours. Strong cross- equatorial swell will begin to move into the area Fri and slowly build through the weekend, peaking Mon night through Tue. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Latest satellite scatterometer wind data showed fresh to strong E winds continuing across the Papagayo region and downwind to about to 90W, and extending northward to NW Nicaragua. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these winds. This is occurring behind a tropical wave along 90W. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have become very active in recent hours south of these winds to 03N, from Costa Rica to well beyond 90W, and being fueled by moderate to locally fresh S winds occurring outside of the offshore waters. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4 to 5 ft in S to SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas will persist across the Papagayo region through Thu evening, then diminish slightly through the weekend. Gentle to moderate N winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama with slight to moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected elsewhere. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well downwind of Papagayo and south of Tehuantepec over the next couple of days. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of Mexico. Strong cross-equatorial swell will begin to move into the area early Fri and slowly build through the weekend, peaking Mon through Tue. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Fausto, centered about 745 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California. Hurricane Fausto dominates conditions over the High Seas forecast waters from 10N to 22N between 115W and 125W. Fresh to strong winds outside of the immediate circulation of Fausto extend to 22N, and seas to 8 ft reaching as far N of Fausto as 25N. Elsewhere, high pressure extends a broad ridge weakly into the northern waters W of 120W and W of Fausto to 10N. Moderate or weaker winds with moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Hurricane Fausto is near 16.9N 121.4W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Fausto will move to 17.3N 122.8W this evening, 17.7N 125.0W Thu morning, 18.1N 127.8W Thu evening, 18.4N 130.6W Fri morning, 18.6N 133.3W Fri evening, and 18.8N 135.9W Sat morning. Fausto will change little in intensity as it moves to near 19.5N 141.0W early Sun. Looking ahead, a tropical wave with axis along 91W is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days, and a low chance through 48 hours. As is typical during El Nino years, the eastern Pacific remains active, with one tropical system potentially developing after another. Strong cross-equatorial swell will begin to move into the area Wed night and slowly build Thu night through the weekend.