Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Oct 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0905 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Simon is centered near 15.4N 103.1W at 08/0900 UTC, moving west at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are near 15 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed from 13N to 18N and between 100W and 107W. A W motion is expected to continue through today, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest to north-northwest on Friday. Simon should turn toward the north Friday night and approach the coast of southwestern Mexico on Saturday. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Simon is expected to become a major hurricane by late Friday or early Saturday. Tropical Storm Rachel is centered near 21.8N 123.9W at 08/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are near 27 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 20N to 24N and between 121W and 126W. The WNW motion is expected to continue over the next 24 hours, before a sharp turn to the northeast, along with an increase in forward speed, is forecast to occur. Continued gradual weakening is expected over the next few days. Swells partly generated by Rachel will build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Pacific through the coast of Panama near 08N83W to 12N98W and then from 11N115W to 08N127W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 06N to 13N and between 115W and 127W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Simon offshore of southern Mexico. Away from Tropical Storm Simon, a weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Simon will slowly be traversing and impacting the offshore zones off of southern Mexico for the next five days. Simon will move to 15.4N 104.1W this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.9N 105.1W Fri morning, 16.6N 105.5W Fri afternoon, 17.4N 105.6W Sat morning, 18.3N 105.4W Sat afternoon, and 19.3N 105.3W Sun morning near SW Mexico. Simon will change little in intensity as it moves near SW Mexico early Mon. Meanwhile, Rachel will move to 22.1N 124.3W this afternoon, 22.5N 125.0W Fri morning, 22.9N 124.7W Fri afternoon, 24.0N 122.8W Sat morning. Rachel should reach the offshore zones off of Baja California Norte on Sat as it accelerates to the NE. Finally, the system is forecast to move across Baja California Norte early Sun just south of the California-Mexico border and inland over early Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate southerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are found between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient persists across the offshore waters of Central America and Colombia, supporting light to gentle winds and moderate seas. For the forecast, long-period southerly swell will produce rough seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through tonight. Elsewhere, a weak high pressure north of the Caribbean will support moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast waters through at the middle of next week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala during the early portion of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form as it moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 kt. The system has a medium chance of formation in the next 7 days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Rachel located over the NE waters. Outside of the influence of Tropical Storm Rachel, a weak high pressure supports moderate or weaker winds across forecast waters. Large long-period SW swell is present across the southern border between 95W-125W. Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Rachel is near 21.8N 123.9W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Rachel will move to 22.1N 124.3W this afternoon, 22.5N 125.0W Fri morning, 22.9N 124.7W Fri afternoon, 24.0N 122.8W Sat morning, 26.4N 119.9W Sat afternoon, and 30.2N 116.7W Sun morning. Rachel will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland over 39.9N 112.2W early Mon. Additionally, the large SW swell will continue near our southern border for the next several days. Meanwhile, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas behind a frontal system will affect the northern waters starting Fri and continue into Sun.