Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Sep 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Karina is centered near 18.8N 132.8W at 02/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 940 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 125 kt with gusts to 150 kt. Peak seas are around 42 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 17N-22N between 131W-135W. A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible today, followed by slow weakening over the next several days. However, Karina is likely to remain a powerful hurricane the next couple of days. Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 17.1N 111.7W at 02/1500 UTC, moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are around 28 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 13N-21N between 105W-114W. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected by tonight, and that motion should continue through the weekend. Some strengthening is forecast through Friday, and Marie is likely to become a hurricane later today. A gradual weakening trend is expected over the weekend. Swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next few days and will likely spread northward to southern California over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 90W, extending across Guatemala to 07N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is present from 03N to 16N between 87W and 97W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough exits the coast of Costa Rica near 10N84W and extends to 11N108W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 07N east of 91W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong is also occurring from 03N-11N west of 115W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Marie centered southwest of Mexico. Aside from Marie, winds are NW fresh offshore of Baja California Norte with seas 5-6 ft. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft over Pacific waters and 1-4 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Marie is near 17.1N 111.7W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Marie will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.8N 112.8W this evening, move to 18.7N 114.2W Thu morning, 19.4N 115.8W Thu evening, 20.1N 117.3W Fri morning, 20.7N 118.6W Fri evening, and 21.3N 119.8W Sat morning. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves to 22.5N 122.2W early Sun. Elsewhere, a tighter pressure gradient will result in fresh to strong S to SE winds in the N Gulf of California through Fri night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh E winds with seas 5-6 ft are occurring today over the Gulf of Papagayo region. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4-6 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 07N east of 91W. For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient across Central America will sustain fresh to locally strong E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo through the weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds will prevail across forecast waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Hurricane Karina centered between Mexico and Hawaii, and Tropical Storm Marie located southwest of Mexico. Aside from the impacts of Hurricane Karina and Tropical Storm Marie, moderate or weaker winds dominate the tropical NE Pacific. Otherwise, a small area of cross equatorial swell from the southwest is noted well west of the Galapagos Islands producing seas to 8 ft. For the forecast, Karina will move to 19.2N 134.2W this evening, 19.7N 136.2W Thu morning, 20.1N 138.2W Thu evening, 20.5N 140.0W Fri morning, 21.0N 141.7W Fri evening, and 21.7N 143.1W Sat morning. Karina will weaken to a tropical storm over 23.6N 145.1W early Sun. Marie will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.8N 112.8W this evening, move to 18.7N 114.2W Thu morning, 19.4N 115.8W Thu evening, 20.1N 117.3W Fri morning, 20.7N 118.6W Fri evening, and 21.3N 119.8W Sat morning. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves to 22.5N 122.2W early Sun. Elsewhere, the cross equatorial SW swell will diminish below 8 ft by Thu. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form well offshore of southwestern Mexico over the weekend. Gradual development is possible early next week as the system moves west- northwestward around 10 kt, and is likely to remain well offshore of Mexico. Chance of tropical cyclone formation is low...20 percent...through 7 days.