Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Sep 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0855 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Norbert is centered near 16.6N 123.3W at 11/0900 UTC, moving west at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are 18 ft within 120 nm NE quadrant of the center. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 14N to 20N and between 117W and 124W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 09N to 14N and between 117W and 121W. A general W motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Some strengthening is forecast, and Norbert could become a hurricane this weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Fourteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 113W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 05N to 16N between 105W and 115W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 08N102W to 12N120W, then continues SW of Norbert from 11N125W to 10N139W. Scattered moderate convection is found from 07N to 13N and between 95W and 104W. Similar convection is occurring south of 13N and west of 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Tropical Storm Norbert located well SW of Baja California. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to locally strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, high pressure north of the area extends extends southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring west of the Revillagigedo Islands as Tropical Storm Norbert continues to pull away. Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to affect the central and southern Gulf of California and the nearshore waters of Baja California Sur. Gusty winds and higher seas are likely occurring with these storms. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Norbert is near 16.6N 123.3W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Norbert will move to 16.7N 125.0W this afternoon and continue to move westward away from the area. As Norbert moves away, a stronger ridge will build across the offshore waters of Baja California, bringing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds Sun into early next week. Winds will also increase across the northern Gulf of California today and tonight, then again Sun through Mon night due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and the meandering trough that is in place in that area. Otherwise, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds will pulse again early next week. Looking ahead, showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure are located several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Gradual development of this system is anticipated, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week while it moves generally west- northwestward to westward over the central and western portions of the East Pacific. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the area forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending downstream to 89W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring off Panama and Colombia. Gusty winds and higher seas are likely occurring with these storms. For the forecast, a ridge north of the area will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to rough seas across the Papagayo region through early next week. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas are expected over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos through at least the middle of next week. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas in long period SW swell are forecast elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Tropical Storm Norbert located well SW of Baja California. Away from the impacts of Norbert, moderate to locally fresh SE winds and rough seas are found south of 04N and west of the Galapagos Islands to 125W. The strong subtropical ridge located well north of the area dominates the remainder of the tropical Eastern Pacific supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Norbert is near 16.6N 123.3W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west at 13 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Norbert will move to 16.7N 125.0W this afternoon, 17.0N 127.2W Sat morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.3N 129.2W Sat afternoon, 17.9N 131.1W Sun morning, 18.2N 133.1W Sun afternoon, and 18.4N 135.1W Mon morning. Norbert will weaken to a tropical storm over 18.4N 139.2W early Tue. Elsewhere, a cross equatorial swell will persist over the next several days producing seas to 9 ft south of 04N. A tight pressure gradient will result in locally fresh N winds and rough seas in the NE waters late this weekend into early next week. Meanwhile, showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure are located several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Gradual development of this system is anticipated, and a tropical depression is likely to form by early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward to westward over the central and western portions of the East Pacific.. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.