Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Mar 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from low pressure over NW Colombia southwestward to 07N78W to 07N93W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 03N115.5W to 02N128W to 03N135W and to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ W of 135. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Winds have become light and variable in the the Gulf of Tehuantepec region as the pressure gradient has weakened over southeastern Mexico. Seas are 4 to 5 ft in mixed swell. Elsewhere, a broad subtropical ridge located well NW of the area supports moderate to fresh NW winds along with moderate seas over the offshore waters of Baja California. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds will be over the offshore waters of Baja California tonight. Fresh to strong SE winds will pulse tonight into Mon in the Gulf of California as low pressure deepens to the north. Seas will increase to just below 8 ft west of Guadalupe Island tonight and diminish early on Mon. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will dominate the basin. The next gap wind event will begin in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Mon night, with pulsing strong to near gale-force N winds and rough seas into late this week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean Sea is currently allowing for mostly fresh northeast to east winds along with moderate seas in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Farther east, a tight pressure gradient is sustaining fresh north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Panama extending S to near 05N. Seas with these winds are 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, strong northeast to east winds will pulse nightly in the Gulf of Papagayo through much of the week, along with moderate to rough seas. Moderate to fresh north winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama during this time. Gentle breezes and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between broad high pressure N of about 19N and W of 121W and lower pressure near the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trades from 05N to 18N W of 120W. Similar trades are from 06N to 14N between 105W and 120W. Seas with these winds are 4 to 6 ft, except for higher seas of 6 to 7 ft W of 125W. Another area of moderate to fresh winds is noted N of 27N and E of 135W. Moderate seas prevail in this area. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, little change is expected with the current conditions through midweek. A cold front may approach the far NW corner of the area on Tue, followed by fresh to strong NE winds.