Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Apr 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09.5N74W TO 02N82W to 04N92W to 03.5N106W. The ITCZ extends from 03.5N108W to 04.5N126W to 03N135W to beyond 04N140W. Southern hemispheric ITCZ extends from 03.4S95W to 02.5N99W to 03.4S108W to 02.5S112W to beyond 03S120W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of 04N between 80W and 97W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 06.5N between 89W and 107W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 09.5N between 117W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure continues to build gradually southward across the Baja California waters tonight, as a weak cold front has dissipated across central Baja and the central Gulf of California this afternoon. This current pressure pattern is producing moderate to fresh NW winds across the Baja nearshore waters becoming N winds from 21N southward across the Revillagigedo islands. Gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail offshore of central and northern Baja. Seas in these offshore waters are 5 to 6 ft in NW swell, except to 7 ft near Punta Eugenia and across Bahia de Sebastian Vizcaino, where fresh winds have prevailed all afternoon. Moderate to locally fresh N-NW prevail across the Gulf of California, and extend southward to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across these waters. However, wind have become light and variable across northern portions of the Gulf in recent hours. Gentle to moderate NW to W winds prevail across the remaining waters between Cabo Corrientes and Puerto Angel, where seas are 4 to 5 ft in SW swell. Fresh N gap winds are across the waters inside the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are around 5 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds will prevail across the waters on both sides of the Baja California Peninsula tonight as high pressure builds in from the North Pacific. This ridging will then dominate the waters through the week. New NW swell will propagate into Baja waters late Thu and produce rough seas across the outer waters of Baja Norte into early Sat. Between Baja Sur and Puerto Angel, winds will be moderate or weaker with moderate seas through Fri. Fresh northerly gap winds are expected across the Tehuantepec tonight before winds there become variable throughout the remainder of the week. Looking ahead, high pressure will weaken across the region Sat leading to diminishing winds and seas. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region and extend downwind to beyond 90W, producing seas 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas prevail in the Gulf of Panama and extend beyond the Azuero Peninsula to near 04.5N. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in S-SW swell dominate the remainder of the offshore forecast waters. Scattered moderate to strong convection has become active along a surface trough that extends from the nearshore waters of SW Colombia to N of the Galapagos Islands along 02N, leaving the waters offshore of Costa Rica without showers. For the forecast, broad high pressure will continue N of the area into Wed night before gradually weakening through the end of the week. This will maintain fresh gap winds pulsing to strong during the nighttime and early morning hours across the Papagayo region to near 90W through Wed night, then yield moderate winds pulsing to fresh each night into the weekend. In the Gulf of Panama, moderate northerly winds will pulse to fresh tonight and Wed night, then will diminish slightly through the rest of the week. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Active convection occurring N of the Galapagos tonight will gradually shift westward and out of the are through Fri night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1027 mb high pressure is centered N of the area near 3N134W and extends a ridge southward across the region W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh trade winds south of 16N between 100W and 115W, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds south of 25N and west of 115W. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell across the area, except less than 5 ft across the far NW waters near the high pressure center. Scattered to locally numerous convection has become more active along and N of the ITCZ and trough between 90W and 100W, and between 115W and 135W, and is producing areas of strong and gusty winds, and potentially higher seas. High pressure just N of the area will shift southeastward to near 33N through Wed, and strengthen the pressure gradient modestly across the local area tonight and Wed. Cross- equatorial swell will raise seas along the equator 7 to near 8 ft through Wed. Moderate to fresh winds are expected in the trade wind zone through Fri. The high pressure will weaken just N of the area on Sat to produce diminishing winds and seas through the weekend.