Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Oct 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Simon is centered near 16.2N 104.7W at 09/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 966 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are near 25 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within 60 nm of center, except 90 nm SE quadrant. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 11N to 19N between 100W and 109W. Simon is moving toward the northwest. A gradual turn toward the north with a slight increase in forward speed is expected through tonight. Simon is then forecast to move generally northward, with the center passing very near or over the west-central coast of Mexico late Saturday or Sunday. Simon continues to strengthen. Additional rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so. Simon is forecast to become a major hurricane this evening and strengthen further on Saturday. Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum totals of 30 inches possible across portions of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit through Sunday. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Simon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Rachel is centered near 23.3N 124.0W at 09/2100 UTC, moving northeast at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm NE quadrant of center. Rachel is moving toward the northeast. A general northeast to north-northeast motion, with a significant increase in forward speed, is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is expected to approach the northern Baja California Peninsula or Southern California late Saturday or early Sunday. Some strengthening is possible the next day or so, with rapid weakening forecast after the storm moves inland over the southwestern United States on Sunday. Rachel will bring 1 to 3 inches of rain to portions of Baja California this weekend. Swells partly generated by Rachel will build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, as well as moderate to isolated major coastal flooding, through early next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 09N90W to 12N97W, then resumes near 14N124W to beyond 08N140W. In addition to the convection associated with Rachel and Simon, scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 08N between 98W and 110W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 02N to 10N between 80W and 98W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 05N W of 110W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Rachel. Outside of the areas impacted by Simon, a weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, Hurricane Simon will move to 16.6N 104.9W Sat morning, 17.5N 105.0W Sat afternoon, 18.6N 105.1W Sun morning, inland to 20.0N 105.3W Sun afternoon, 21.4N 105.5W Mon morning, and move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 22.8N 105.8W Mon afternoon. Simon will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland near 24.6N 106.4W Tue afternoon. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Rachel will move to 24.2N 122.4W Sat morning, 26.7N 119.4W Sat afternoon, 30.9N 117.2W Sun morning, inland to 36.4N 115.0W Sun afternoon, and dissipate Mon morning. Expected increasing winds and building seas over the northern Gulf of California Sat night into Sun as Rachel approaches Baja California Norte. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are noted N of 04N, with the exception of fresh to strong winds N of the monsoon trough mainly from 10N to 13N between 88W and 91W as noted on scatterometer data. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail S of 04N. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast waters through the middle of next week. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by late next week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 kt. This system has now a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Rachel. Outside of the influence of Tropical Storm Rachel, moderate to fresh winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail N of 12N and W of 130W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Rachel will move to 24.2N 122.4W Sat morning, 26.7N 119.4W Sat afternoon, 30.9N 117.2W Sun morning, inland to 36.4N 115.0W Sun afternoon, and dissipate Mon morning. As Rachel moves over the southwest of the United States, a cold front is forecast to extend across the northern forecast waters on Sun. Fresh N to NE winds and rough seas, in long period NW, swell will follow the front forecast to reach from the northern Gulf of california to near 20N140W on Mon while dissipating. Large SW swell will continue to affect the waters S of the Equator and west of 105W over the next couple of days.