Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Nov 19 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 10N100W to 10N123W. The ITCZ continues from 10N123W to 08N132W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 03N to 08N E of 82W, from 12N to 15N between 100W and 106W, and from 08N to 16N between 115W and 122W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from Punta Eugenia SW to 22N124W to 22N139W. A trough continues to weaken ahead of the front from 23N115W to 18N128W. Behind the front, another surface trough extends from 30N116W to 25N123W to 26N134W. Scattered showers are ongoing across Baja California due to these features. Winds behind the front are moderate or weaker from the NW and seas are rough to 10 ft in long-period NW swell. The front is also moving across the northern Gulf of California, where is supporting fresh to strong SW winds and seas to 6 ft. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient support mainly light to gentle winds with slight to moderate seas in NW swell elsewhere, except for slight seas in the remainder Gulf of California. For the forecast, strong SW winds will prevail across the northern Gulf of California ahead of the cold front through tonight. The cold front will move SE while gradually weakening, and dissipate N of Cabo San Lazaro by late Wed. Rough seas in the wake of the front will propagate across the outer offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Thu morning. Otherwise, a new cold front is forecast to enter the Baja California Norte offshore waters Thu night followed by large swell bringing rough seas to the waters N of Cabo San Lucas through Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 91W along with moderate seas to 4 ft. Elsewhere across the Central America offshore waters, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail, except for moderate N winds in the Gulf of Panama. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate from the south, with slight to moderate seas. Scattered showers are present across the Panama and Colombia offshore waters. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun night. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends from Punta Eugenia SW to 22N124W to 22N139W. A trough continues to weaken ahead of the front from 23N115W to 18N128W. Behind the front, another surface trough extends from 30N116W to 25N123W to 26N134W. A surface ridge across the remainder subtropical waters is supporting moderate to fresh N to NW winds and rough seas to 11 ft N of 25N between 120W and 130W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are elsewhere between the ITCZ and 26N W of 125W. For the forecast, the cold front will move southeastward through early Wed, bringing fresh NW to N winds and rough seas in long period NW swell. The swell will propagate across much of the waters W of Baja before subsiding Thu. High pressure in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas in the westernmost trade wind zone Wed through Thu. The next cold front is expected to reach the NW waters Wed night into Thu followed by fresh NW to N winds and rough seas. Then, a low pressure system is expected to develop along the frontal boundary offshore California. The low pressure is forecast to move southward entering the NE forecast waters by Fri night. Strong winds and rough to very rough seas could be associated with the low.