Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jun 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern portion of the axis of a central Caribbean Sea tropical wave crosses the northern part of Panama and into the far eastern part of the Pacific basin along 82.5W. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered, weakening moderate convection is ahead of the axis from 03N to 08N between 82W and 89W. The axis of a tropical wave is along 94W/95W north of 02N to the Tehuantepec region. It ms moving westward around 15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm west of the axis from 06N to 09N. The axis of a tropical wave is along 112W/113W from 03N to 16N. It is moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm east of the wave from 04N to 07N, and within 60 nm west of the wave from 08N to 11N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia westward to northern Costa Rica, then southwestward to 08N90W and northwestward to 14N102.5W and southwestward to 08N119W. The ITCZ extends from 08N119W to 07N130W and to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N to 09N between the coast of Colombia and 77W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between 114W-120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the California/Nevada border south-southeastward across the northern Gulf of California and across the length of the Baja California peninsula. The pressure gradient between the trough and surface ridging to the west is supporting mainly moderate northwest to north winds over the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro, and moderate to fresh southeast to south winds over most sections of he Gulf of California. A weak pressure gradient across the remainder discussion waters is supporting light to gentle winds. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in south to southwest swell are over the offshore waters. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf of California, except for higher seas of 3 to 5 ft in long-period south swell in the far southern portion of the Gulf and at its entrance. Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and thunderstorms over southeastern Mexico, and within 60 nm offshore Mexico between Puerto Angel and Acapulco. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will continue over the offshore waters of Baja California, except pulsing to locally fresh speeds at night through through the weekend. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds are expected inside the Gulf of California and near the tip of Baja California Sur through the weekend and into early next week. Light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Tehunatepec during the forecast period. Moderate seas in mainly southerly swell change little into early next week. Seas will remain as slight in the Gulf of California. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mostly light to gentle winds under a weak pressure gradient prevail across the offshore waters along with moderate seas due to long-period south to southwest swell. Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms along the coast of Guatemala between 90W and 91W. Similar activity is offshore Costa Rica. For the forecast, gentle to occasionally moderate southeast to south winds and moderate seas will prevail across the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through at least Sun night. Moderate winds will pulse to fresh speeds in diurnal offshore flow in the immediate Gulf of Papagayo through Sat. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in southwest swell are forecast elsewhere through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The surface trough that was near 140W earlier has continued to pull farther away from the discussion area. In the wake of the trough, latest satellite scatterometer data passes generally show light to gentle east to southeast winds north of the ITCZ to near 12N west of 130W, mostly fresh east to southeast winds from 12N to 15N west of 137W, gentle to moderate trade winds from 15N to 21N west of 130W, and light to gentle anticyclonic winds north of 21N west of about as ridge axis is analyzed along 23N/24N west of about 120W. A weak trough is analyzed from near 30N131W to near 28N140W. No significant convection is occurring with this trough. Overnight scatterometer satellite data indicates moderate to fresh northeast winds north of 30N west of the trough. Latest satellite altimeter data and Sofar Ocean Spotter buoys reveal seas of 5 to 7 ft over the waters waters west f 125W and 4 to 6 ft east of 125W. Satellite imagery shows scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms south of 14N west of about 118W. For the forecast, seas will build to rough state south of and near the Equator, and also east of 120W beginning Sat as a new set of southerly swell begins to move through this part of the area. Winds may pulse to fresh speeds in the west-central waters at times through Sat. Otherwise, little overall changes are expected in and winds and seas going into the weekend.