Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Nov 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0235 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to a 1007 mb low pres near 10N88W to a 07N90W to a 1007 mb low pres near 10N117W to 08N125W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N125W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 13N and east of 93W. Similar convection is noted from 05N to 15N and west of 109W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad subtropical ridge centered west of California supports moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 7-10 ft. The highest seas are found west of Guadalupe Island. Meanwhile, fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are present in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to locally strong NW winds and seas of 2-4 ft are occurring in the northern and central Gulf of California. Lastly, moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate seas are noted off Jalisco and Michoacan. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a strong high pressure building over NE Mexico will support fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the middle of next week. Winds and seas will diminish by late next week. Meanwhile, a series of pulses of moderate to large NW swell will continue to impact the Baja California waters into early next week, producing periods of rough seas up to 12 ft across the NW zones. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are also expected in the northern Gulf of California tonight through Sun morning. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A broad area of low pressure centered off Costa Rica continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the offshore waters. These storms are also impacting areas from Nicaragua to Panama. Heavy rainfall may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your local weather agency and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more details. Moderate to locally fresh cyclonic winds and moderate seas are noted north of 04N and east of 93W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, environmental conditions impacting the area of low pressure located offshore of Central America will remain marginally conducive for further development through the weekend, but strong upper-level winds are forecast to end formation chances early next week. The chance tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours and through the next 7 days is low. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America through the weekend. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1026 mb high pressure system centered north of the area supports moderate to fresh NE-E winds and rough seas north of 10N and west of 110W. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are occurring south of 03N and east of 120W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and seas of 6-8 ft prevail. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the area, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and rough seas west of 120W into early next week. Several pulses of NW swell will impact the waters north of 10N through the next several days, with rough to very rough seas to 12 ft and greater expected across the northern waters. Cross-equatorial swell will continue to produce rough seas close to the equator, lingering into the middle of next week. By midweek, strong winds and rough to very rough seas will follow a cold front entering the NW waters, spreading southeastward over the next several days.