Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Apr 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0905 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 05N102W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N102W to 01N125W and beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 09N and west of 103W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured the eastern portion of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, showing fresh to strong northerly winds. Stronger winds, near 30 kt, are likely still occurring in the basin. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. The remainder of the Mexican offshore waters are under a weak 1017 mb high pressure centered well west of Baja California. Gentle to moderate NW winds and seas of 3-5 ft are evident in the offshore waters of Baja California, except for locally fresh winds off Cabo San Lucas. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure will support fresh to strong N winds and rough seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this afternoon. Elsewhere, a set of northwest swell will move through the waters west of Baja California Norte tonight into Wed, but will be subsiding as it does. Seas are expected to peak to around 8 ft with this swell. Fresh to locally strong northwest winds are forecast over the Pacific waters of Baja California beginning late Wed. Northwest winds will pulse to moderate to fresh speeds at night offshore southwestern Mexico today through Fri. Elsewhere, mostly light to gentle west to northwest winds are expected through the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea forces fresh to occasionally strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending downstream to 91W. Farther east, satellite-derived wind data from a few hours ago indicate that moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are occurring in the Gulf of Panama. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds, along with seas 4 to 7 ft due to a long-period south to southwest swell prevail. For the forecast, winds will pulse fresh to occasionally strong speeds in the Gulf of Papagayo region this morning and again late tonight into Wed morning. Similarly, winds will pulse to locally fresh in the Gulf of Panama at night and into the morning hours this morning and tonight into Wed morning. Otherwise, rather tranquil conditions are expected to continue over the Central American and the equatorial waters through the end of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening cold front continues to slide southeastward across the northwest waters, extending from 30N123W to 25N128W, then a stationary front stretches to 22N140W. No significant convection is seen near this boundary. A set of long-period northwest to north swell follows the front supporting seas of 8-14 ft with the highest seas near 30N138W. A couple of buoys just north of the area are reporting seas to 14 ft. Weak high pressure dominates the remainder of the basin, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 110W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary will move east-southeastward, further weakening today and dissipating Wed. The rough to very rough seas behind the front will spread southeastward over the next few days, diminishing in the process. Rough seas will reach the western trade waters Wed. Little overall changes are expected with winds and seas elsewhere through Thu.