Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Oct 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 19.3N 110.8W at 02/1500 UTC, moving west at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 959 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm of center. Rachel is moving toward the west, and this general motion is expected to continue through the weekend. A gradual turn toward the west-northwest with an increase in forward speed is expected by Monday. Additional weakening is expected over the next day or two. However, Rachel is expected to remain a hurricane for the next several days. Rachel is passing just north of Socorro Island. The weather station on this island recently measured sustained winds of 50 kt (92 km/h) with a gust to 68 kt (127 km/h). Swells generated by Rachel will affect the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 15N95W, then resumes W of Rachel near 16N115W to 14N130W to beyond 09N140W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are noted from 01N to 06N E of 82W to the coast of Colombia. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection are observed from 11N to 15.5N between 86W and 100W, from 10N to 13N between 110W and 120W, and from 00N to 08N W of 123W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Rachel, moderate to fresh winds, and rough seas, prevail over the open waters off Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, are over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 19.3N 111.4W this evening, 19.6N 112.1W Sat morning, 19.8N 112.9W Sat evening, 20.0N 113.9W Sun morning, 20.2N 115.0W Sun evening, and 20.3N 116.3W Mon morning. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to near 20.8N 119.5W early Tue. Seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, south of Punta Eugenia, on Sat. Rough seas will persist over the southern Gulf of California, including the entrance to the Gulf. Moderate to fresh westerly winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region through Sat night, then winds and seas may increase beginning on Sun as an area of low pressure could develop late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the region. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with mostly moderate seas through the period. Winds and seas may increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador by Mon as an area of low pressure could develop late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of Hurricane Rachel, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 115W. Fresh to strong winds are south of Hurricane Rachel, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere from 10N to 16N between 90W and 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Rough seas cover the waters N of 05N between 90W and 120W. Moderate to locally rough winds prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, Rachel will move to 19.5N 111.1W this afternoon, 19.5N 111.9W Sat morning, 19.7N 112.7W Sat afternoon, 19.8N 113.6W Sun morning, 19.9N 114.5W Sun afternoon, and 20.1N 115.8W Mon morning. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to near 20.6N 118.5W early Tue. Seas generated by Rachel will propagate across the forecast waters, covering roughly the area from 10N to 25N between 100W and 120W over the next couple of days.