Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Mar 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0255 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N82W to 05N95W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N95W to 02N115W and beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 10N and west of 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between the 1019 mb high pressure system over the Gulf of America and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, a broad subtropical ridge well west of California support moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate seas in the offshore waters of Baja California. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the strong northerly winds and rough seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish quickly Sun. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds will dominate offshore Baja California. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds will pulse Sun night into Mon in the Gulf of California as low pressure deepens to the north. Seas will increase to 8 ft west of Guadalupe Island Sun night and diminish Mon. Otherwise, light to gentle winds will dominate the basin. The next gap wind event will arrive in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue, supporting strong to near gale N winds and rough seas into Thu. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas in the Gulf of Papagayo, extending downstream to 89W. Farther east, a tight pressure gradient forces fresh northerly winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Panama, extending south to 04N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, strong winds will pulse nightly in the Gulf of Papagayo through at least the middle of next week, with moderate to locally fresh winds pulsing in the Gulf of Panama during this time. Gentle breezes and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1031 mb high pressure system centered near 41N135W extends southward into the waters of the tropical eastern Pacific. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found from the ITCZ to 20N and west of 110W. Farther east, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are noted north of the ITCZ and east of 105W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will generally prevail across the region through the start of next week. N swell will build just S of 30N from off Baja California Norte Sun, leading to rough seas into Sun night.