Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Jul 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Fausto is centered near 16.3N 118.8W at 21/1500 UTC, moving northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are near 25 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is occurring from 14N to 16N between 118W and 120W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 11N to 17N between 113W and 123W. Fausto is moving toward the northwest, and that general motion should continue today. A turn toward the west-northwest, accompanied by an increase in forward speed, is expected tonight and Wednesday. Strengthening is expected to resume later today and continue through Wednesday. Swells generated by Fausto are expected to reach the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula on Wednesday, and persist for a couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Fausto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 06N95W to 10N110W, where it breaks for Hurricane Fausto, then resumes near 13N125W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 83W and 110W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Fausto, centered about 640 nm southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Fresh to strong SE winds with seas of 9 to 12 ft, and scattered moderate convection is occurring in the offshore zone of the Revillagigedo Islands as Fausto passes SW of Clarion Island. Elsewhere, a very weak and narrow ridge extends across the offshore waters between Fausto and Mexico, yielding moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in S to SW swell over the remainder of the Pacific offshore waters. Inside the Gulf of California, recent satellite altimeter data showed gentle to moderate S to SW winds, with a few areas of locally fresh westerly gap winds. Seas are estimated at 2 to 4 ft except to 5 ft across the entrance. For the forecast, high pressure will begin to build in across the Baja offshore waters Wed and Thu to produce moderate to fresh NW winds with isolated areas of strong winds during the afternoon and evening hours. Moderate to large SW swell will impact the Mexican offshore waters W of Cabo Corrientes tonight through Thu. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the eastern Pacific. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong Ne to E winds prevail across the Papagayo region and extend offshore to 91W and northward into the NW Nicaragua waters. Seas are 6 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4-5 ft in S swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will persist across the Papagayo region through Fri morning before diminishing over the weekend. Elsewhere, quiescent conditions are expected through Sunday. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Fausto, centered about 640 NM southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Fausto and the remnants of Elida dominate conditions over the High Seas forecast waters tonight. Away from these two systems, the only winds that are fresh are south of the equator west of 110W, and are accompanied by 8 to 9 ft seas. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 5 to 8 ft in mixed seas. For the forecast, Hurricane Fausto will move to 16.8N 119.9W this evening, 17.2N 121.5W Wed morning, 17.5N 123.3W Wed evening, 17.8N 125.4W Thu morning, 18.2N 127.9W Thu evening, and 18.6N 130.7W Fri morning. Fausto will change little in intensity as it moves to near 19.5N 135.8W early Sat. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the eastern Pacific. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.