Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Oct 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Twenty-Two is centered near 9.5N 99.3W at 21/1500 UTC, moving west at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas are peaking near 11 ft. Scattered moderate to strong within 45 nm of center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong elsewhere from 01N to 15N between 90W and 103W. The system is moving westward and a slow forward motion is expected with a turn towards the northwest and then north- northwest is forecast. The system is forecast to reach tropical storm intensity by tonight, and hurricane intensity by Thu night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Twenty-Two NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure over Mexico and TD 22-E is funneling near- gale force northerly gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Winds will pulse to gale- force tonight and Thu night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec as TD 22-E further intensifies. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 11N95W to 04N109W. The ITCZ extends from 04N109W to 06N130W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 08N east of 80W, and from 02N to 09N between 110W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on newly formed Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E and the gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and TS 22-E, light to gentle breezes and moderate seas prevail, except for slight seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, newly formed Tropical Depression Twenty-Two-E is near 9.5N 99.3W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving west at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Twenty-Two will strengthen to a tropical storm near 9.4N 100.1W this evening, move to 9.7N 101.1W Thu morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 10.2N 102.0W Thu evening, 10.7N 102.6W Fri morning, 11.5N 103.2W Fri evening, and 12.5N 103.6W Sat morning. Twenty-Two will change little in intensity as it moves to near 14.2N 104.4W early Sun. The pressure gradient between high pressure over Mexico and TD 22-E is funneling near- gale force northerly gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Winds will pulse to gale- force tonight and Thu night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec as TD 22-E further intensifies. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the discussion waters. For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo region. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on newly formed TD 22-E. Elsewhere, a 1006 mb low pressure area is centered near 33N125W, with associated cold front extending from 30N121W to 23N132W. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough to very rough seas with maximum wave heights to 16 ft follow the front. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in a mix of swell are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the front will dissipate through late Thu as it continues to moves westward, with winds and seas diminishing as they spread southward over the waters north of 15N and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere. Tropical Depression Twenty-Two is near 9.5N 99.3W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving west at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Twenty-Two will strengthen to a tropical storm near 9.4N 100.1W this evening, move to 9.7N 101.1W Thu morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 10.2N 102.0W Thu evening, 10.7N 102.6W Fri morning, 11.5N 103.2W Fri evening, and 12.5N 103.6W Sat morning. Twenty-Two will change little in intensity as it moves to near 14.2N 104.4W early Sun.