Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jul 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0910 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 01N to 16N with axis near 95W, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed from 03N to 10N between 88W and 100W. A tropical wave extends from 02N to 16N with axis near 119W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 13N between 109W and 130W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N114W to 06N132W. The ITCZ is from 06N132W to 06N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is active from 00N to 11N E of 88W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 03N to 14N between 102W and 112W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent scatterometer data show light to gentle NW winds across the offshore waters off Baja California while altimeter data indicate moderate seas to 6 ft, which is being influenced by mixed SW and NW swell. In the Gulf of California, winds are fresh from the SE with 3 to 4 ft seas. Strong N winds prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are estimated to be 7-8 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are moderate in SW swell. For the forecast, moderate or weaker NW winds will prevail across the Baja California offshores through Tue night along with slight to moderate seas in mixed swell. Fresh to strong SE winds across the Gulf of California will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by late Sat. Pulses of fresh to strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will reach near gale-force speed Mon night, which will continue to affect the region through at least midweek. Otherwise, an area of low pressure is expected to form late this weekend or early next week several hundred miles south- southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, the lowering pressure may induce at least fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas across the offshore waters of SW Mexico Sun night through Tue night. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue this morning across the Papagayo region, affecting with rough seas to 9 ft the offshore waters of Nicaragua. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds remain moderate or weaker and seas moderate to 6 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle winds are across the remainder Central America offshores along with slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds in Papagayo will remain constant through at least Tue night with moderate to rough seas. Otherwise, an area of low pressure is expected to form late this weekend or early next week several hundred miles south- southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, the lowering pressure may induce fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas offshore El Salvador and Guatemala Sat evening through late Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge dominates the waters north of 17N and W of 120W, supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas, except rough W of 133W per recent altimeter data. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are ongoing elsewhere. Otherwise, decaying NW swell continue to support an small area of rough seas to 8 ft just W of Punta Eugenia offshore waters. For the forecast, swell of 8-9 ft will persist north of 25N to the east of 125W through today. Otherwise, an area of low pressure is expected to form late this weekend or early next week several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form next week while the system moves generally west- northwestward. Regardless of development, this system will bring strong winds and rough seas to the SW Mexican offshore immediate open waters Sun through midweek.