Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jul 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 93W-94W, south of 16N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Associated convection is described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section. A tropical wave is analyzed along 103W, south of 16N, moving west at 10 kt. Associated convection is also described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75.5W to 06N80W to 09.5N86W to 08N95W to 02.5N107W to 04N113W. The ITCZ extends from 07.5N115W to 07N124W to 10.5N135W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered to locally numerous to strong convection is noted from 01.5N to 10.5N east of 92W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14.5N between 92W and 101W and from 03N to 12.5N between 105W and 128W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge extends from the NE Pacific across the Baja California waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands, and is maintaining gentle to moderate NW to N winds, with 5-7 ft seas in merging NW and SW swell, per recent satellite altimeter data. Gentle breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere to Puerto Angel. Fresh NW to N gap winds with locally rough seas to 8 ft continue in a narrow plume across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downstream to near 14.5N this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are offshore the coasts from Chiapas and Guerrero, S of 14.5N, and continue to shift westward. For the forecast, the ridge extending into the Baja California will maintain gentle to moderate breezes through Sat, becoming moderate to occasionally fresh near the coast of Baja California starting Sat evening through Tue, as the high pressure builds modestly into the area. Moderate to fresh gap winds across the Tehuantepec region will pulse again to strong tonight through Sat morning, then diminish through early next week. Looking ahead, large SW swell is expected to reach the waters off southern Mexico early next week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered to locally numerous strong convection is occurring across the western half of Panama and southeastern Costa Rica and extends across the near and offshore waters south and southwestward to the NE of the Galapagos Islands. Frequent lightning with strong and gusty winds and locally rough seas accompany this activity. Fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds continue to dominate the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 90W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across this area. Gentle to moderate SW to W breezes are noted elsewhere to the south. Cross-equatorial SW swell dominate the area waters, producing seas of 5 to 6 ft, except 6 to 7 ft between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms area expected to continue to shift westward across the area waters through early Sun before activity begin to shift northward into the Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse at night across the Papagayo region into early next week, leading to occasional rough seas. Cross- equatorial southerly swell will dominate area seas through the weekend and keep seas moderate to the N of 04N through Sun morning, before increasing to near 8 ft off Ecuador and the Galapagos Sun evening through Tue, and 5 to 7 ft across the northern Central America early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnants of Tropical Cyclone Douglas are centered near 20N 128.5W at 1800 UTC, moving north-northwest around 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed maximum sustained winds of around 30 kt. Satellite altimeter data also shows seas of 3.5 to 4.0 m extend up to 180 nm N and NW of the center. The gale warning for this area has thus ended. Showers and thunderstorms continue to diminish with this system and are now confined to a modest cluster from 90 to 240 nm across the N semicircle. Elsewhere, a broad northeastern Pacific ridge persists across the waters to the north of the remnants of Douglas, and extend southeastward into the offshore waters of Baja California. The pressure gradient between the ridge and this low pressure system are producing fresh NE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft N of 27N and across the waters N through NW of the low. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 6-8 ft seas are noted elsewhere north of 17N and west of 120W. Farther east, fresh winds and locally rough seas are occurring S of 13N, and accompany the tropical wave along 103W. Mostly gentle to moderate SE breezes and 5-8 ft seas in mixed swell are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, winds and seas near the remnants of Douglas will gradually diminish through Sun night as the remnant low weakens and opens into a trough. The ridge will drift southwestward and generally persist across the region through early next week, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds farther south into the tropics. Looking ahead, weak low pressure may form south of the Revillagigedo Islands by the early to middle part of the coming week. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system while it moves generally westward at 10-15 kt, although chances of development at this time are low.