Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Dec 23 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0305 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will support fresh to near gale- force northerly winds and moderate to locally rough seas through the end of the week. Winds are expected to pulse to gale- force at night tonight and Tue night. Seas will peak around 11 ft (3.5 M) with the strongest winds. Conditions will improve by the weekend. Northern Waters Gale Warning: A cold front extends southwestward from strengthening low pressure is located near 28N133W to 23N140W, while a warm front extends from the low to 30N131W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted north of the low. The pressure gradient between this area of low pressure and high pressure NW of the area will produce strong to gale- force winds in the northern waters, mainly north of 28N between 127W and 135W, Tue. Winds will decrease below gale- force Tue evening as the low pressure moves farther north of our waters. Seas will build to near 15 ft with this system. A second gale force low north of the area will generate a new set of large NW swell, which will reinforce these very rough seas. Combined seas of 12 to 18 ft will spread over the northern waters, covering much of the waters N of 24N and W of 125W by Thu before starting to subside. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 06N96W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N96W to 11N120W. Surface trough along 124W. The ITCZ continues from 10N126W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 07N to 17N between 101W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details on a Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a weak high pressure centered west of Baja California supports light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, northwest swell will propagate into the waters north of Punta Eugenia by Wed. A reinforcing swell will spread rough seas across the offshore waters of the Baja California peninsula the end of the week into the weekend. Fresh to strong southerly winds may develop in the northern Gulf of California Wed night into Thu. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo due to strong high pressure to the north of the Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to locally fresh northerly winds in the Gulf of Panama. Seas in the area are 2-4 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will support pulsing fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo over the next several days. Mainly gentle to moderate north winds are expected in The Gulf of Panama during the period, occasionally reaching fresh speeds at night. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section for more details on the Gale Warning in the northern waters. A cold front extends southwestward from strengthening low pressure is located near 28N133W to 23N140W, while a warm front extends from the low to 30N131W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted north of the low. Fresh to near gale- force N-NE and rough seas are occurring behind the frontal boundaries. The remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific is dominated by a weak subtropical ridge over the northern waters. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are present north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ and east of 125W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the surface trough will enhance convection with locally higher winds over the next couple of days. The low over the NW waters will move northeastward over the next couple of days, while the cold front will shift southeastward into Tue before lifting north of the discussion area. A tight gradient between the low and high pressure NW of the area will produce strong to gale- force northwest to north winds north of about 28N and between 127W and 135W by early Tue. Rough to very rough seas are expected to build with these winds. This system will shift N of the area with winds over the discussion waters associated with this feature diminishing. A second gale force low will develop north of the area with a broad wind field bringing strong to near gale force winds over the northern discussion waters by midweek. A set of large NW swell generated from this feature will reinforce the rough seas generated from the first low.