Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri May 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N74.5W to 06N79W to 08.5N92W to 08.5N109W. The ITCZ continues from 08.5N110W to 08.5N115W to 07N127W to 05N131W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 12.5N between 83W and 96W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 07N E of 82W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 97W and 120W, and from 03.5N to 11N between 120W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to locally fresh northwesterly winds prevail west of the Baja California peninsula tonight, where seas are 4 to 6 ft in W-NW swell, except to near 7 ft to the NW of Isla Guadalupe. Light to gentle winds prevail across central portions of the Gulf of California, while gentle to moderate westerly winds are occurring across northern portions, and moderate to locally fresh northerly winds prevail from southern portions of the Gulf to Cabo Corrientes. Seas are 1 to 2 ft north and central portions of the Gulf and 3 to 4 ft elsewhere. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere across the waters east of Cabo Corrientes to Tehuantepec. For the forecast, 1028 mb high pressure remains NW of the area tonight, and will drift N and weaken slightly this weekend through early next week. This pattern will produce gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas over much of the forecast waters through the remainder of the week and into the weekend before weakening Sun and Mon. Large NW swell will move into the outer waters off Baja California Norte briefly Sat night through Sun, raising seas to 8 ft to the NW of Isla Guadalupe during that time. Looking ahead, strong gap winds and building seas are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night through Tue night as a cold front moves through southern Mexico. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A small area of moderate to fresh E gap winds extend offshore of southern Nicaragua the Papagayo region to near 88W tonight, while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Moderate NW to N winds have begun to spill into western portions of the Gulf of Panama. Seas are moderate in S-SW swell across the area waters, except slight across the coastal waters of Colombia. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection remains from offshore of Nicaragua near 90W to coastal Colombia and the Gulf of Panama. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds will pulse at night to strong across the Papagayo region through early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected. Expect large SW swell to reach near the Galapagos Islands Fri through Sat. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge dominates the forecast waters north of the ITCZ, centered on a 1028 mb high near 32N132W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 23N and west of 125W, and N to NE winds between 115W and 125W. Seas are 6-9 ft in W-NW swell across these waters S of 20N, highest west of 125W, and 4 to 6 ft N of 20N. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in S-SW swell prevails. For the forecast, the ridge will change little across the region through early sun before drifting northward and weakening. The associated pressure gradient will support fresh trades, strong at times, north of the ITCZ to about 22N and west of 120W through the remainder of the week and into the weekend, with seas of 7-8 ft across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere through the week. Rough seas are expected in building southerly swell S of the Equator today through Sat evening.