Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jun 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0305 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 86W, south of 19N, moving at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north of 07N and between 84W and 89W. A tropical wave is along 95W, south of 16N, moving very slowly westward at around 5 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. A tropical wave is along 114W, south of 18N, moving very slowly westward around 5 kt. Isolated to scattered showers are occurring from 04N to 17N and between 106W and 118W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 11N86W to 15N103W and to 08N123W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N123W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 02N to 08N and between 90W and 95W. Similar convection is seen from 05N to 13N and west of 121W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure dominates the offshore waters of Mexico. The moderate pressure gradient between the strong ridge in the NE Pacific and lower pressures in NW Mexico result in moderate to locally fresh northerly winds in the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. In the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, gentle to moderate northerly winds will continue over the offshore waters of Baja California, except pulsing to locally fresh speeds at night through through the weekend. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds are expected inside the Gulf of California and near the tip of Baja California Sur through the weekend and into early next week. Looking ahead, gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec may pulse to fresh to strong starting late Tue night. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the Caribbean Sea forces moderate easterly trade winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to occasionally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are present south of the Equator. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh southerly winds and moderate to locally rough seas will prevail across the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through early next week. Moderate winds will pulse to fresh speeds in diurnal offshore flow in the immediate Gulf of Papagayo through at least Tue night. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in southwest swell are forecast elsewhere through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered well north of the area dominates the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. MOderate NE-E winds and moderate seas are found north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are noted south of 05N and east of 120W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the old southerly swell across the south- central waters will gradually decay through the end of the week, then, seas will build to rough again south of and near the Equator and east of 120W beginning Sat as a new set of southerly swell begins to move through this part of the area. Winds may pulse to fresh speeds in the west-central waters at times. Otherwise, little overall changes are expected in and winds and seas through the upcoming weekend and into early next week.