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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Aug 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Karina is centered near 11.9N 112.7W at 28/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently around 15 ft (4.5 m). Numerous moderate to strong thunderstorms extend 240 nm in the NW and 120 nm SE semicircles. Karina is moving toward the west- northwest and this general motion is expected to continue over the next several days, reaching its closest point of approach to Clarion Island late Fri night into early Sat. Strengthening is anticipated, and Karina is forecast to become a hurricane over the weekend. Swells generated by Tropical Storm Karina will begin to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Karina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 11.4N 133.5W at 28/0300 UTC, moving east-northeast at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 11 ft (3.5 m). Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 270 nm in the SW semicircle and 120 nm in the NE semicircle. Lowell is moving toward the east-northeast, with a westward motion expected by Saturday. Strengthening is likely during the next several days, and Lowell could become a hurricane by Sunday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 90W north of 06N into El Salvador and Guatemala, moving quickly westward at around 25 kt. Any nearby convection is described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section below. The axis of a tropical wave is along 98W north of 03N to near the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving quickly westward at 15-20 kt. Any nearby convection is described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N95W to 09N107W, and from 12N117W to 10N140W. In addition to the convection near Karina and Lowell, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 05N to 115N between 85W and 120W, and from 05N to 12N between 130W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Karina. Winds are likely starting to increase along with building seas just south of the Revillagigedo Islands ahead of T.S. Karina. Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas persist elsewhere over the offshore waters of Mexico. For the forecast, Karina will move to 12.9N 114.1W Fri morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.3N 115.5W Fri evening, and to 15.7N 117.2W by Sat morning, southwest of Clarion Island. Karina will move to 17.0N 118.8W Sat evening, 17.8N 120.5W Sun morning, and 18.3N 122.3W Sun evening. Karina will change little in intensity as it continues to move W-NW to 18.8N 125.4W by late Mon. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sun with locally rough seas there at times, then pulsing to moderate to fresh thereafter. A surge of fresh to locally strong southeasterly winds is possible associated with convective complexes may move up the central and northern Gulf of California both Fri and Sat nights. Looking ahead, another area of low pressure is forecast to form this weekend well to the south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while it moves west- northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, possibly brining increasing winds and seas along a similar path to Karina. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly gap winds persist the Gulf of Papagayo downwind to near 10N90W, with 5 to 7 ft seas there. Winds are moderate or weaker across the offshore waters, with moderate seas, except slight near the coasts of Colombia and eastern Panama. Very active showers and thunderstorms are present over the outer offshore waters areas of the offshore waters from Colombia northward as described in the monsoon trough section above with locally higher winds and seas possible there. For the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the upcoming weekend into early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Associated moderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds may freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into early next week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the monsoon trough. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about recently upgraded Tropical Storm Karina and Tropical Storm Lowell. The remnant 1008 mb low of Post-Tropical Iselle is near 24N128W with fresh to strong winds around rough seas within 180 nm in the northwest quadrant of the low. Elsewhere, mainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the open waters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from the two tropical storms and Post- Tropical Iselle. Rough seas in mainly SW swell surround Karina covering the waters south of 16N between 105W and 120W. Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will move Karina will move to 12.9N 114.1W Fri morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.3N 115.5W Fri evening, 15.7N 117.2W Sat morning, 17.0N 118.8W Sat evening, 17.8N 120.5W Sun morning, and 18.3N 122.3W Sun evening. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to 18.8N 125.4W late Mon. Tropical Storm Lowell will move Lowell will move to 11.8N 133.0W Fri morning, 12.3N 133.2W Fri evening, 12.5N 134.3W Sat morning, 12.7N 135.8W Sat evening, 12.9N 137.5W Sun morning, and strengthen to a hurricane near 13.2N 139.3W Sun evening. Lowell will change little in intensity as it moves west of 140W late Mon. The remnant low of Iselle will gradually open up into a trough by the upcoming weekend while remnant winds and seas persist as it shifts west-northwest to 140W where it will reach by the end of the weekend. Large southwesterly swell will impact the southern waters through tonight before decaying and becoming confined to a large area around developing Karina. Looking ahead, much larger and more expansive southwesterly swell may impact the southern waters by early next week. Also, another area of low pressure is forecast to form this weekend well to the south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while it moves west- northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, possibly brining increasing winds and seas along a similar path to Karina.