Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Apr 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from 09N79W to 13N90W to 12N95W. The ITCZ extends from 12N95W to 08N115W to 11N130W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 100W and 125W. A second ITCZ south of the area, extending from 03.4S110W to 02S125W and beyond. Scattered moderate convection is within 115W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Ridging off Baja California combined with troughing over northwest Mexico supports moderate to fresh winds off the peninsula, with moderate winds in the central Gulf of California. Winds are mainly gentle elsewhere. Combined seas are 5-7 ft off Baja California, 3-5 ft off southwest and southern Mexico, and 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, ridging will build over the area through mid week. The pattern will support moderate to fresh northwest winds over the Baja California waters. Elsewhere, mostly light to gentle west to northwest winds are expected through the week. Moderate to fresh winds may develop in the central and southern Gulf of California by the middle of the week as the pressure gradient tightens slightly, then pulsing to fresh to strong from near Punta Eugenia southward by early Thu into Thu evening. Similar winds will pulse in the central and southern Gulf of California then as well. Looking ahead, a northerly gap wind event is possible by Sat night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle variable winds and 3-6 ft combined seas prevail north of the Equator. Gentle to moderate SE winds prevail south of the Equator, within 5-7 ft seas in S to SW swell. For the forecast, a light gradient will maintain rather tranquil conditions over the Central American and Colombian waters through the week while moderate to fresh southeast winds and moderate long-period south to southwest swell remain offshore Ecuador. Seas will subside slightly by the end of the week into the weekend. Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama overnight Tue through Thu. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The ridge north of the ITCZ is disrupted by a trough extending from 26N126W to 18N129W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are found north of the ITCZ to 20N west of 120W. Mainly light to gentle winds are elsewhere across the open waters. Seas are 6-8 ft in mixed SE and NW swell south of the Equator, and 4-7 ft across the remainder of the waters. For the forecast, a rather weak high pressure across the region along with persistent troughing over the northwest waters will generally maintain moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds from the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W. Combined seas will be in the range of 5-7 ft over the western part of the area and 4-6 ft elsewhere, except near 8 ft along 03.4S through the early part of the week. Seas may build slightly over the waters north of 10N and west of 120W by the middle of the week in new swells.