Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jun 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern portion of a Caribbean tropical wave is along 83W reaching southward to near 05N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. A tropical wave has its axis along 93W north of 08N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the wave axis and S of 12N. A tropical wave has its axis near 112W from 08N to 17N, moving westward around 10 kt. A mid-level cyclonic circulation is noted in satellite animation in the vicinity of the wave axis. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 08N to 18N between 105W-118W. A tropical wave has its axis near 128W from 11N to 21N. A weak 1011 mb low is along the axis near 20N as noted in satellite imagery. These features are moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 60 nm north of the low. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pressure of 1007 mb in northwest Colombia to across northern Panama and to 10N86W to 08N117W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to beyond 07N140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm on either side of the ITCZ and W of 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure difference between high pressure ridging over the Gulf of America and lower pressure from southeastern Mexico southward to the monsoon trough over the eastern Pacific is supporting fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas to 8 ft are with these winds. In the Gulf of California, fresh southwest winds were detected by a recent ASCAT pass across the central portion of the Gulf from the gradient associated to the diurnal thermal trough. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the Gulf, except for slightly higher seas of 3 to 5 ft in the southern portion. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in long-period south to southwest swell. For the forecast, the fresh to strong north to northeast gap winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through Sun morning. Elsewhere, winds and seas across the Mexican offshore waters should be calm through early next week. Large northwest swell is expected to may move into the far northern waters off Baja California Norte beginning Sun night and linger into Tue. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast gap winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo and off the southern coast of Nicaragua. Recent altimeter satellite data indicates seas of 6 to 8 ft downstream of these winds from 09N to 11N between 87W and 91W. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in long-period southerly swell over the equatorial waters and 5 to 6 ft in SW swell over the remainder of the offshore waters. For the forecast, the pressure difference between high pressure north of the area and lower pressures in the tropics will support fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Papagayo through early Tue. These conditions may possibly reach as far west as 96W through Sun night. Farther south, large southerly swell moving into the equatorial waters will continue through early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak 1011 mb low is centered near 20N128W as mentioned above under the Tropical Waves section. Fresh to strong northeast winds prevail north of the low to 22N and between 125W and 129W. Seas with these winds are 8 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, broad ridging dominates the remainder of the area north of 15N. The moderate pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough/ITCZ is resulting in moderate to fresh trade winds from 10N to 27N west of 127W, and from 12N to 17N between 113W and 120W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over these areas, except for higher seas 6 to 8 ft from 14N to 20N west of 131W due to long-period north to northeast swell. Elsewhere, winds across the open Pacific are moderate or weaker. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in mixed north and southwest swell. For the forecast, the tropical wave near 112W is forecast to undergo possible gradual development during the next several days as it moves generally west-northwestward, and a tropical depression could form during the early to middle part of next week. By late next week, the system is expected to reach a much less favorable environment for development. Outside of this system, little change in winds are expected for the next several days. Large southerly swell moving through far south-central waters, with seas of 8 to 9 ft may reach to near 03N between 100W and 127W by Sun night and into Mon.