Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jul 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Genevieve is centered near 20.2N 122.1W at 30/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are near 34 ft or 10.5 m. Numerous moderate convection is within 150 nm in the NE semicircle and 30 nm in the SW semicircle. Genevieve is moving toward the west- northwest. This general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next several days. Gradual weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Genevieve is forecast to become post-tropical this weekend. Swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the Baja California Peninsula and Southern California. These swells will persist for the next several days, and are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Genevieve NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 96W, extending from 02N to the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 93W and 102W. A tropical wave is along 109W, from 03N to 18N, drifting W at less than 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 18N between 102W and 112W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N82W to 09N96W to 13N114W. Nearby convection is primarily associated with the tropical waves described in the above section. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information about convection in the region. Swells from Hurricane Genevieve, centered well W of the area and moving away, are still bringing some rough seas to about 10 ft to the outer offshore waters of Baja California Sur. Scattered convection, likely inducing locally gusty winds, has moved off the Sinaloan coast into the southern Gulf of California and adjacent waters to the south. Locally fresh N gap winds have developed in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail. Seas are slight in the Gulf of California and moderate in the remaining offshore waters. For the forecast, rough seas in the outer offshore waters W of Baja California will diminish today. Increasing NW swell may lead to rough seas again offshore Baja California Norte Sun night and Mon. Fresh to locally strong gap winds are likely in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late tonight and are possible again Fri night. Moderate to fresh NW winds are expected to pulse tonight and Fri night nearshore Baja California as high pressure builds southward W of the Peninsula. Elsewhere, Fresh SE to S winds may pulse nightly in the northern Gulf of California beginning Sat night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information about convection in the region. High pressure northeast of the area is forcing strong easterly gap winds and resultant seas of 7 to 9 ft across the Gulf of Papagayo region, with moderate to fresh northerly gap winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in the Gulf of Panama. Scattered moderate thunderstorms have moved offshore northern Colombia, likely accompanied by locally higher winds and waves. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through Sun, with occasionally rough seas. Pulsing moderate to locally fresh N winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama tonight and Thu night. Southerly winds may freshen offshore southern Colombia and from Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands Thu night and Fri. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected across the remainder of the waters through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Genevieve. For waters not being impacted by Hurricane Genevieve, high pressure is centered just northwest of the area. The pressure pattern between the high and Genevieve is supporting moderate to fresh NE trades to the north and west of Genevieve. Seas in this region have built to 6 to 9 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are found south of the Equator and west of 100W. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere. Moderate seas dominate waters S of 13N. Hurricane Genevieve is near 20.2N 122.1W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Genevieve will move to 20.7N 123.9W this afternoon, 21.5N 126.5W Fri morning, then weaken to a tropical storm near 22.1N 129.1W Fri afternoon. Tropical Storm Genevieve will be near 22.9N 131.8W Sat morning, 23.8N 135.0W Sat afternoon, and 24.5N 138.0W Sun morning. Genevieve will weaken to a remnant low as it moves into the Central Pacific basin early Mon. Away from Genevieve, little change in marine conditions is forecast through the weekend. Fresh and rough northerly swell off California is likely to push southward into the waters off Baja California Norte north of 27N and east of 130W by the end of the weekend into early next week.