Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Nov 18 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N108W. The ITCZ continues from 09N108W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 09N to 13N between 113W and 129W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from 26N112W to 17N127W. A cold front is analyzed from 30N115W to 23N139W. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh NW winds behind the front. The front is also bringing rough seas in long-period NW swell mainly N of 28N. Fresh to strong SW winds are also ahead of the front in the northern Gulf of California, with moderate seas. A weak pressure gradient elsewhere support mainly light to gentle winds with moderate seas in NW swell, except slight seas in the remainder Gulf of California. For the forecast, strong winds will prevail across the northern Gulf of California ahead of the cold front through tonight. The cold front will move SE, reaching Punta Eugenia this evening while gradually weakening, and dissipate N of Cabo San Lazaro by Wed. Rough seas in the wake of the front will propagate across the outer offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Thu. Otherwise, a new cold front is forecast to enter the Baja California Norte offshore waters Thu night followed by large swell bringing rough seas to the waters N of Punta Eugenia through Sat. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate NE winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 88W. Elsewhere across the Central America offshore waters, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate from the south, with slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern across the region as a weak pressure gradient is forecast to prevail. This will support moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas through at least midweek. In the Gulf of Papagayo, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight to moderate seas are expected through Sat, with pulsing winds to 20 kt at night. Moderate seas are forecast to develop with these winds. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough from 26N112W to 17N127W. A cold front is analyzed from 30N115W to 23N139W. Latest scatterometer data depicts moderate to fresh NW winds behind the front. The front is also bringing rough seas in long-period NW swell, which are already affecting the waters N of 25N and E of 132W. Elsewhere N of the ITCZ and W of 127W, a surface ridge prevails, being anchored by a 1025 mb high center located near 32N137W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present. For the forecast, the cold front will move southeastward through early Wed, bringing fresh NW to N winds and rough seas in long period NW swell. This swell will propagate across much of the waters N Cabo San Lazaro before subsiding Thu. High pressure in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas in the westernmost trade wind zone Wed through Thu. The next cold front is expected to reach the NW waters Wed night into Thu followed by fresh NW to N winds and rough seas. Then, a low pressure system is expected to develop along the frontal boundary offshore California. The low pressure is forecast to move southward entering the NE forecast waters by Fri night. Strong winds and rough to very rough seas could be associated with this low.