Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Sep 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 25.5N 126.6W at 08/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Latest satellite imagery continue to show a sheared Marie, with its center exposed to the northwest of widely scattered moderate convection in the SE quadrant from 18N to 26N between 122W and 126W. Marie is forecast to move west-northwest over the next few days, and is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low later today or Wed. Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 90W north of 04N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 02N to 16N between 88W and 103W. A tropical wave has its axis along 112W from 04N to 18N. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 07N to 20N between 100W and 118W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 11N112W to 09N129W and to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 15N west of 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient across the region due to the presence of Tropical Storm Marie to the west of the Baja California Peninsula is supporting mainly gentle to moderate NW winds off Baja, and light to gentle winds along with slight seas in the Gulf of California. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of southwestern Mexico with potential to develop into a tropical cyclone later in the week is supporting moderate to fresh winds off Jalisco and south of the Revillagigedo Islands. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds are pulsing in Tehuantepec. For the forecast, showers and thunderstorms associated with the broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of southwestern Mexico have the potential for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Regardless of development, this system will bring at least moderate to strong winds to the offshore waters of Jalisco and the Revillagigedo Islands today through Wed night. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas there are 5 to 7 ft in southwest swell. Gentle to moderate S to SE winds are across the offshores between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands along with slight to moderate seas. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds along with slight to moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sat. Building high pressure north of the area will also lead to near-gale force winds Wed and Wed night. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos today through Wed night, then diminishing some afterward. Moderate or lighter winds are expected elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Marie. Tropical Storm Marie is near 25.5N 126.6W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Outside from marine impacts attributed to Marie over the northeast portion of the region, moderate or weaker winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. For the forecast, Marie will move to 26.3N 127.5W this afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 27.9N 128.6W Wed morning, 29.8N 129.9W Wed afternoon, 32.1N 131.4W Thu morning, and dissipate Thu afternoon. Long-period northwest to north swell is merging with cross- equatorial Southern Hemispheric swell south of about 00N and between 104W and 122W. This swell area is forecast to expand eastward through Wed as the primary swell direction becomes northwest to north. Seas from this swell are expected to be 7 to 9 ft. To the east, an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave located several hundred nautical miles south-southwest of southwestern Mexico have the potential for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system generally west-northwestward.