Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Apr 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N77W to 05N93W. The ITCZ extends from 05N93W to beyond 06N140W. A southern hemispheric ITCZ extends from 05S86W to 02S140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 79W and 111W, from 03N to 12N and W of 117W, and along the southern hemispheric ITCZ. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak surface ridge extends eastward into the waters of Baja California, to the south of a cold front approaching the region from the northwest. This pattern is supporting light to gentle NW to N winds across the waters of Baja, then becoming gentle N to NE winds from Baja Sur beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate seas in mixed swell prevail across these waters. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California with slight seas, except in northern portions where fresh SW gap winds and moderate seas prevail. Farther east, gentle NW winds prevail across the waters from Las Tres Marias to Puerto Angel, except moderate winds near the coast of Cabo Corrientes. Fresh to strong N gap winds are noted in the Tehuantepec region, with seas to 7 ft. For the forecast, a cold front will move into the Baja Norte waters early Mon then gradually dissipate across central Baja and the Gulf of California Tue. Expect light to gentle NW to N winds across the Baja waters ahead of the front, before winds begin to freshen Mon evening through Tue. High pressure behind the front will dominate the region through the rest of the week. Fresh to strong SW to W gap winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California through Mon night ahead of the front, with winds then becoming moderate to fresh from the N through the entire Gulf Tue morning through Wed. Elsewhere between Baja Sur and Puerto Angel, winds will be moderate or weaker with moderate seas through Tue. Pulsing fresh to strong northerly gap winds will prevail across and downwind of the Tehuantepec region through Tue morning, with seas building to 8 ft during the early morning hours. Afterwards, moderate and variable winds are expected through midweek. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region and extend downwind to near 90W, producing rough seas. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail in the Gulf of Panama, and extend beyond the Azuero Peninsula to 04N. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell dominate the remainder of the offshore forecast waters. Scattered moderate convection continues offshore of western Panama and Costa Rica. For the forecast, broad high pressure will continue N of the area through Wed before weakening, and maintain fresh gap winds pulsing to strong during the nighttime and early morning hours across the Papagayo region to 90W. Winds up to 30 kt, and seas up to 9 ft are forecast tonight. In the Gulf of Panama, moderate northerly winds, pulsing to fresh each night, are expected throughout the forecast period. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Cross- equatorial SW swell will raise seas to 6 to 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Tue through Wed. Pulses of active convection will continue across the waters S of 09N through Mon, and will propagate westward. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure NW of the area extends a ridge southward through 30N142W and into the area W of 130W. East of the ridge, a cold front has crossed into the local waters, passing through 30N121W to 27N128W. A weak ridge prevails ahead of this front and extends to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to about 15N between 98W and 127W, and south of 24N to the west of 128W. Moderate seas in mixed NW and S swell generally prevail across the area waters, with seas to 7 ft within the trade wind zone between 95W and 120W. For the forecast, the weak high pressure ridge will dominate the weather pattern across the northern forecast waters through early Mon with little change in winds and seas, before the high shifts southeast through midweek to strengthen the pressure gradient modestly. Moderate winds are expected in the trade wind zone W of 95W through Mon. A weakening cold front across the northern waters W of 125W will move into the Baja Norte early Mon then across northern Gulf California late Mon. Moderate N to NE winds and moderate seas in NW swell are forecast in the wake of the front.