Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jan 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Swell NW Waters: Very large NW swell persists over the waters north of 28N between 126W and 135W, associated with a gale center well north of the region. The very rough seas induced by this swell will subside below 12 ft this evening. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 07N90W to 06N99W. The ITCZ continues from 06N99W to 09N122W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 08N east of 84W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong northerly gap winds are ongoing over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, associated with high pressure building north of the area. Farther N, NW winds ahead of a weak surface are moderate to fresh offshore Baja California Sur, extending south to the Revillagigedo Islands. Long period NW swell is moving into waters offshore Baja California Norte, leading to rough seas. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and moderate seas prevail, except for the Gulf of California where slight seas are present. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will persist through tonight, then diminish as the high pressure to the north weakens. Gap winds may return Tue night. A weak pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters. Long period NW swell will bring rough seas to the Baja California offshore waters through Mon, with mainly moderate seas elsewhere. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the region is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds in the Papagayo region as well as in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support pulses of fresh to strong winds across the Gulf of Papagayo tonight through Mon night, with moderate to fresh pulses thereafter. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on significant swell north of 28N between 126W and 135W leading to very rough combined seas into this evening. A trough roughly along 125W from 12N to 24N is supporting fresh NE to E winds and seas to 8 ft from 12N to 15N between 121W and 125W. Another trough extends from 30N128W to 22N140W. Winds on both sides of the trough are moderate or weak, but shift from NE to NW as the eastward-moving trough passes. For the remainder of the area, gentle to moderate mainly easterly winds dominate. NW of a Guadalupe Island to 11N140W line, rough seas in NW swell dominate, with moderate seas elsewhere. For the forecast, the trough over the NW waters will move east tonight then dissipate Mon near the Baja California coast. A cold front will enter the northern waters Mon, cross 120W Tue, then approach Baja California Wed. This front will disrupt the standard subtropical ridge N of 20N, maintaining gentle to moderate breezes across the region through early this week, before slightly increased and more trade-wind dominant winds return for the latter portions of the week.