Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jan 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient will develop in the Tehuantepec region on Fri as an arctic high pressure will build southward over eastern Mexico. North winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will reach strong to near-gale speeds Fri afternoon, and gale-force on Fri night, possibly lasting until late Tue. Seas are expected to build to 12 to 18 ft late on Sat. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N85W to 04N100W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 114W and 128W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec from Fri night/early Sat through early next week. See the Special Features section above for more details. The pressure gradient between surface ridging west of the Baja Peninsula and a surface trough over W Mexico supports fresh northwest winds in the Gulf of California. Seas are slight to moderate in the Gulf. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a strong cold front that will move across the Gulf of America will usher in another round of gale conditions in the Tehuantepec region beginning Fri night. These winds may peak to strong gale force, with seas possibly reaching to around 18 ft late on Sat. These conditions will prevail through early next week. High pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will support moderate to fresh northwest winds across the Gulf of California before diminishing Sat night. Large northwest swell over the waters west of Baja California Norte will slowly decay through Fri. There is also potential for another set of northwest swell to move through the waters west of Baja California Norte late this weekend and early next week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong to near-gale NE winds, and rough seas, prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo region extending westward to near 90W. Fresh gap winds prevail in Gulf of Panama area along with moderate seas. Over the remainder of forecast waters, gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the western Caribbean and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will maintain fresh to strong NE to east gap winds in the Papagayo region through the weekend. NE winds may increase to gale- force over Papagayo on Sun night and Mon, as an Arctic high pressure builds southward over eastern Mexico helps tighten the pressure gradient. An upcoming gale force gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will produce rough to very rough seas over the Guatemala and El Salvador waters Sat night into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging prevails across the waters N of 20N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trades from north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of about 120W. Large northwest swell is moving through the northwest part of the area, mainly N of 08N and W of 120W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas in mixed swell, prevail. For the forecast, the area of high pressure over the discussion waters will weaken through the day Fri enabling a cold front to approach the area. This will loosen the pressure gradient and diminish winds slightly over the tradewind waters. The large northwest swell will propagate southeastward reaching 07N by Fri afternoon before gradually decaying into Sat. The cold front will enter the NW waters Sat, and gradually dissipate over the NW waters through Sun. The front will usher in a set of large northwest swell, with rough to very rough seas impacting the waters N of 15N and W of 130W through Sun, then rough seas further spreading SE to cover the waters N of 05N and W of 120W by Mon before gradually subsiding.