Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jun 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 89W, south of 19N, moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 03N to 06N between 85W and 90W. A tropical wave is along 96W, south of 15N, drifting westward at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 04N to 08N and between 93W and 98W. A tropical wave is along 106W, south of 17N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 07N and between 103W and 107W. A tropical wave is along 121W, south of 18N, drifting westward at 5 kt. No significant convection is evident near this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N95W to 14N105W to 08N130W. The ITCZ extends from 08N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 07N to 11N between 90W and 95W, and from 08N to 11N between 105W and 115W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate NW winds in the Baja California offshore waters. Seas are 5-7 ft in these waters. The strongest winds are off Baja California Norte. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, ridging over the eastern Pacific will support moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California through Mon night, and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere. Winds off Baja California will diminish starting Tue as the high pressure weakens ahead of a trough moving into the area from off southern California. This pattern will also support moderate to fresh southerly winds across the Gulf of California Tue ahead of the trough. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong northerly gap winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by midweek, as pressure lowers farther south into the tropics. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A plume of 15 kt easterly gap winds and seas to 6 ft are evident across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending downstream to 90W. Farther south, moderate southerly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of 03N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are expected in the Papagayo region into early next week. Winds will freshen to strong speeds starting late Mon with seas building to 8 or 9 ft by late Tue. The gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will produce seas to 9 ft in the far offshore waters of Guatemala by midweek. Meanwhile, mainly moderate southerly winds and moderate to locally rough seas will prevail across the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through at least midweek. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The subtropical ridge centered well north of our waters extends into the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific north of 20N. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and moderate seas are found north of 10N and west of 115W. Farther south, long period SW swell with wave heights of 7-9 ft are moving into the waters south of 02N between 85W and 125W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, additional pulses of SW swell will continue to propagate across the forecast waters east of 125W generating moderate to locally rough seas. Otherwise, little changes are expected in winds and seas through early next week as a ridge remains in control of the weather pattern across the area. Looking ahead, most weather models are indicating broad low pressure may form along the monsoon trough between 90W and 100W possibly starting mid week, although there is a low chance of tropical cyclone development.