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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jul 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Fausto: Tropical Storm Fausto is centered near 12.6N 114.7W at 20/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently 14 to 15 ft or around 4.5 m. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 17N between 106W and 123W. Fausto is moving toward the northwest, and this general motion with a gradual turn toward the west-northwest is expected through Tue. The cyclone is forecast to slow somewhat through Wed before gradually increasing its forward speed later in the week. Steady strengthening followed by a period of rapid intensification is forecast during the next couple of days, and Fausto is forecast to become a hurricane by Mon night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Fausto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Elida: Tropical Storm Elida is centered near 24.1N 126.8W at 20/0300 UTC, moving north-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently around 21 ft or 6.5 m. Scattered moderate convection is between 75 nm and 240 nm in the NE quadrant, and elsewhere between 150 nm and 660 nm in the N quadrant. Elida is moving toward the north-northwest. A turn toward the north at a slightly faster speed is expected tonight through Mon. The system is then expected to continue northward but gradually slow down over the following day or two. Gradual weakening is anticipated. Elida is forecast to become a remnant low late Mon or early Tue. Swells generated by Elida will affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California during the next several days. These swells will likely result in life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Elida NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 1007 mb low pressure over northern Colombia at 10N74W to 10N84W to 07N98W. The ITCZ extends from 07N98W to 11N109W. The monsoon trough continues from SSW of Elida from 14N126W to beyond 08N140W. Other than the convection mentioned above with Elida and Fausto, scattered moderate isolated strong is noted from 00N to 09N between 77W and 86W and from 07N to 12N between 101W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 270 nm SSE of the monsoon trough between 130W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Fausto, centered about 678 nautical miles south- southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and on Tropical Storm Elida, centered about 934 nautical miles west of the southern tip of Baja California. Otherwise, fresh to strong northerly gap winds are noted in the immediate Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters, with locally moderate to fresh E to SE winds south of 20N and west of 110W near the Revillagigedo Islands on the outer periphery of Fausto. Seas are slight in the Gulf of California, higher near the entrance, and moderate elsewhere, except rough near the Revillagigedo Islands due to Fausto just south of the area. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Fausto will move to 13.3N 116.1W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.5N 117.7W Mon evening, 15.6N 119.4W Tue morning, 16.3N 120.8W Tue evening, 16.7N 122.3W Wed morning, and 17.1N 124.0W Wed evening. Fausto will change little in intensity as it moves to 17.7N 128.8W late Thu. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Elida west of the Baja California waters will move to 26.0N 127.3W Mon morning, 28.7N 127.6W Mon evening, weaken to a remnant low north of the area near 31.6N 127.7W Tue morning, 34.2N 127.6W Tue evening, 35.6N 127.4W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec at times through the week with locally rough seas. Moderate to fresh SE winds will pulse in the central and northern Gulf of California through Mon. Winds may freshen off Baja California Norte by the end of the week. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico during the latter part of the week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the eastern Pacific. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds continue across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 09N88W. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are moderate across the offshore waters, except slight in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands. Very active convection is present near the monsoon trough from western Colombia to offshore Guatemala as described above with locally higher winds and seas possible in any thunderstorms. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas will persist across the Papagayo region through Fri, with moderate to fresh NE winds pulsing near the Gulf of Fonseca. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected elsewhere, except in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and nearshore western Colombia where slight seas are forecast. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Fausto, centered about 678 nautical miles south- southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and on Tropical Storm Elida, centered about 934 nautical miles west of the southern tip of Baja California. Both of the above tropical cyclones dominate the open waters. Moderate the fresh SE to S winds and 7 to 9 ft seas prevail across the waters south of 07N between 104W and 120W. Moderate to fresh winds and locally rough seas are near an area of disturbed weather at 11N103W with convection present as described above. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the waters away from Elida and Fausto. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Fausto will move to 13.3N 116.1W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 14.5N 117.7W Mon evening, 15.6N 119.4W Tue morning, 16.3N 120.8W Tue evening, 16.7N 122.3W Wed morning, and 17.1N 124.0W Wed evening. Fausto will change little in intensity as it moves to 17.7N 128.8W late Thu. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Elida will move to 26.0N 127.3W Mon morning, 28.7N 127.6W Mon evening, weaken to a remnant low north of the area near 31.6N 127.7W Tue morning, 34.2N 127.6W Tue evening, 35.6N 127.4W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed evening. Also, moderate to fresh winds and locally rough seas over the south-central waters that follow in behind Fausto will gradually spread northward through the early part of the week. Little change in marine conditions is expected across the remainder of the open waters at least into midweek. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico during the latter part of the week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the eastern Pacific.