Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Oct 13 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 1008 mb low pressure near 12N92W to 09N127W. The ITCZ extends from 09N127W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 08N between 78W and 83W, and from 12N to 14N between 93W and 95W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A sharp trough extends from the lower Colorado River valley into the Gulf of California. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong SW winds across the northern Gulf waters. To the west, the gradient between this low and high pressure to the northwest is leading to moderate NW winds offshore Baja California Norte, with related NW swell generating seas of up to 8 ft impacting the waters around Guadalupe Island and the offshore areas beyond 120 nm off Baja California Norte. Elsewhere over Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds and moderate seas dominate. For the forecast, the trough over the northern Gulf of California will support fresh to strong SW winds over the northern Gulf through tonight. Northerly swell near Guadalupe Island off Baja California Norte will subside through this evening, but build back into the region Tue night into Wed following a weak cold front moving into Baja California and the Gulf of California. To the south, broad low pressure is developing off Guatemala. Little development is expected over the next few days while the low drifts to off southern Mexico, but strong northerly gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting Tue. These higher winds may eventually aide in environmental conditions that are more conducive for tropical development of the low later in the week. There is a medium chance that a tropical depression forms while the system moves to offshore southern Mexico toward the end of the week or this weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A few showers and thunderstorms are active along the coast from Nicaragua to Guatemala, north of 1008 mb low pressure area centered near 12N92W. Gentle to moderate SW winds prevail with seas of 5 to 7 ft from Costa Rica to Guatemala, and 4 to 5 ft from Panamanian offshore waters southward to Ecuador. For the forecast, the low pressure off Guatemala will remain stationary through the early part of the week, and little development is expected. Environmental conditions area likely to become more conducive for tropical development of the low later in the week, and there is a medium chance that a tropical depression forms while the system moves N or NW offshore Guatemala or southern Mexico toward the end of the week or this weekend. At a minimum, there may be fresh winds and rough seas off El Salvador and Guatemala Thu and Fri as the low moves through the region. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad ridging prevails north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, with moderate to locally fresh N winds across these waters. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in this region, except for 8 to 9 ft north of 25N between 115W and 125W, where N swell is propagating. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the ITCZ along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate south to southwest winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, the swell north of 25N between 115W and 125W will subside late today. A cold front will move southeastward across the waters north of 20N Tue through Thu. A new round of 8 to 10 ft swell will follow the front over the waters north of 25N tonight through Wed night. Looking ahead, high pressure building north of the area behind the front will support moderate fresh NE winds north of 10N and west of 130W Thu and Fri. Farther south, weak low pressure is likely to form along the monsoon trough between 115W and 120W through Wed.