Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Jul 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 82W north of 06N to across western Panama and continuing into the western Caribbean Sea, moving westward around 20 kt. Any nearby convection is described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. A tropical wave is analyzed along 119W from 02N to 17N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Any nearby convection is described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from western Colombia from 08N77W to near the southern coast of Panama to 09N90W. The ITCZ extends from 09N92W to 07N105W to 09N116W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 07N123W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05.5N to 08.5N between 77W and 82W, from 06N to 08N between 100W and 106W, from 06N to 15N between 109W and 122W, and from 00N to 12N between 122W and 140W. Similar convection is noted within 210 nm of the coast between 89W and 102W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific across the Baja California waters to near 18N112W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and relatively lower pressures over northwest Mexico is generally supporting moderate to fresh NW winds offshore Baja California to the west of 114W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over these waters in mixed long period SW swell and NW swell. Fresh to strong N-NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in long period SW swell. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate mainly NW-N winds are present, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in long period SW swell. Inside the of California, moderate to locally fresh SE winds are in the central and northern Gulf, and gentle to moderate in the southern Gulf. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf except higher near the entrance. Active convection is present within 210 nm of the coast of SW and southern Mexico to the east of 102W. For the forecast, the surface ridge will build east-southeastward across the offshore waters of Baja California through Wed night, with the resultant gradient leading to moderate to fresh NW winds over these same waters, locally strong to the north of Punta Eugenia through Tue night. Moderate to fresh gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse at fresh to strong speeds at night into the mornings through the rest of the week with seas to rough at times. Little change in winds is forecast elsewhere, except increasing and pulsing to fresh to strong in the central and northern Gulf of California by the end of the week as the gradient tightens there. Fresh NW swell off California will push southward off Baja California Norte late Tue night into early Wed, continuing through early Fri. Moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast winds are continuing across the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 90W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds are elsewhere to the north of 10N. Moderate northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama, while moderate SE winds are offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, where seas are 5 to 8 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle winds are across the remainder of the waters, along with 4 to 7 ft mainly in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE-E gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will continue into early Thu, then moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Tue night. Little change in winds is forecast elsewhere through the week. Cross equatorial SW swell will move through the waters off Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through early Wed, building seas to a peak of 9 ft. The combination of the southerly swell with shorter period seas associated with gap winds will allow combined seas to build to a peak of about 8 ft offshore of northern Central America Tue through Wed with mainly moderate seas otherwise. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge continues across the northeast Pacific and north of the discussion area. It extends southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the remnant trough of Douglas analyzed from near 28N131W to 21N132W is producing fresh northeast winds within 180 nm west of the trough from 25N to 29N. Seas are to 8 ft in a mix of easterly swells over these waters. Winds are mainly gentle to moderate across the remainder of the waters to the north of the ITCZ, except moderate to locally fresh to the north of the ITCZ to 18N and to the west of 115W. Mainly moderate to locally fresh winds are south of the ITCZ. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in S to SW swell across the waters mainly south of 14N, and 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell across the remainder of the waters. Very active convection is present over the waters near a tropical wave at 119W as described above. For the forecast, the remnant trough of Douglas will continue drifting westward through the rest of the week. The ridge will build east-southeastward through Wed night, with the gradient between it and the remnant Douglas trough leading to a solid area of fresh trades over the western half of the area along with seas of 7 to 8 ft. Large southerly swell with seas up to 9 ft will continue impacting the waters south of 06N through at least mid-week. Large northerly swells off California will build seas to around 9 ft offshore Baja California Norte by mid-week. Meanwhile, the tropical wave will continue moving westward with scattered moderate convection.