Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Nov 19 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0910 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 10N106W to 09N123W. The ITCZ continues from 09N123W to 07N134W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 03N to 09N E of 83W, and from 08N to 16N between 115W and 122W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A dissipating cold front extends from just south of Punta Eugenia SW to 20N127W to 20N140W. A trough continues to weaken ahead of the front from 22N115W to 16N128W. A reinforcing cold front extends from the northern Gulf of California near 31N114W to 27N117W to 24N130W to 26N135W. Scattered showers are ongoing across Baja California and its offshore waters as well as the Gulf of California due to these fronts. Winds behind the front are moderate or weaker from the NW and seas are rough to 9 ft in long-period NW swell. In the northern Gulf of California, the front is supporting moderate to fresh SW winds and seas to 5 ft. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient elsewhere support mainly light to gentle winds with slight to moderate seas in NW swell, except for slight seas in the remainder Gulf of California. For the forecast, the cold front will move SE while gradually weakening, and dissipate N of Cabo San Lazaro by late Wed. Rough seas in the wake of the front will propagate across the outer offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Thu morning. Otherwise, a new cold front is forecast to enter the Baja California Norte offshore waters Thu night followed by large swell bringing rough seas to the waters N of Cabo San Lucas through Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 89W along with moderate seas to 5 ft. Elsewhere across the Central America offshore waters, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail, except for moderate N winds in the Gulf of Panama. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate from the south, with moderate seas to 5 ft. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers and isolated tstsms are present across the Panama and Colombia offshore waters. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun night. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A dissipating cold front extends from just south of Punta Eugenia SW to 20N127W to 20N140W. A trough continues to weaken ahead of the front from 22N115W to 16N128W. A reinforcing cold front extends from the northern Gulf of California near 31N114W to 27N117W to 24N130W to 26N135W. Latest scatterometer data show moderate to fresh NW winds behind the reinforcing front between 121W and 127W. Seas are rough in the 8 to 11 ft range in long- period NW swell N of 25N between 118W and 130W. A surface ridge is across the remainder subtropical waters behind the fronts, supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds elsewhere between the ITCZ and 25N to the W of 125W. For the forecast, the cold front will move SE while gradually weakening, and dissipate along 25N by this afternoon. The swell associated with the front will propagate across much of the waters W of Baja California before subsiding Thu. High pressure in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas in the westernmost trade wind zone today through Thu. The next cold front is expected to reach the NW waters tonight into Thu followed by fresh NW to N winds and rough seas. Then, a low pressure system is expected to develop along the frontal boundary offshore California. The low pressure is forecast to move southward entering the NE forecast waters by Fri night. Strong winds and rough to very rough seas could be associated with the low.