Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Oct 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 20.5N 119.5W at 06/1500 UTC, moving west at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are near 33 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 18N-22N between 118W-122W. A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days, with a sharp northeastward turn late this week. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible the next day or so, with gradual weakening is forecast the rest of the week. Swells generated by Rachel will continue to affect the coast of the Baja California Peninsula and portions of southern California for the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. South of Southern Mexico (Invest 92E): Shower and thunderstorm coverage has been increasing in association with a broad area of low pressure located offshore of southern Mexico. Currently, peak winds are only near 20 kt and largest seas 7 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 08N-17N between 95W-105W. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two while the system moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system.The disturbance has a high chance of formation in the next 48 hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from coastal Costa Rica near 11N85W to a 1008 mb low near 13N98W. The monsoon trough restarts near 10N119W to beyond 13N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 08N-17N between 95W-105W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 06N-10N east of 88W and from 00N-08N between 104W-113W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel located west-southwest of Baja California, Mexico, and Invest 92E offshore of southern Mexico. Outside of the impacts directly associated with Hurricane Rachel, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 5-7 ft over the Pacific offshore zones and 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 08N-17N between 95W-105W. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel is near 20.5N 119.5W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving west at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Rachel will move to 20.6N 120.4W this evening and seas will continue to subside across the offshore waters of Baja California Sur today as the hurricane continues to slowly move away from the area. Rachel should reach near 21.0N 121.7W Wed morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.5N 123.0W Wed evening, 22.0N 124.3W Thu morning, 22.4N 125.4W Thu evening, and 22.8N 125.8W Fri morning. Rachel will become post-tropical as it moves to 24.2N 123.5W early Sat. A weakening Rachel should reach the offshore zones west of the Baja California peninsula again Sat evening as it turns back toward the northeast. Shower and thunderstorm coverage has been increasing in association with a broad area of low pressure located offshore of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two while the system moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. The disturbance has a high chance of formation in the next 48 hours. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient is causing only moderate and weaker winds across forecast waters with seas 4-6 ft. For the forecast, quiescent winds and seas should continue over the Central American and Equatorial Zones for the next few days. However, looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter, while it moves generally west-northwestward around 10 kt. Tropical cyclone formation chance is near zero through 48 hours and is low through 7 days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel located west-southwest offshore of Baja California, Mexico. Outside of the area affected by Hurricane Rachel, a weak pressure gradient is forcing only moderate and weaker winds across forecast waters. Large SW swell is moving across the southern border between 100W-120W. Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel is near 20.5N 119.5W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving west at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 977 mb. Rachel will move to 20.6N 120.4W this evening and seas will continue to subside across the offshore waters of Baja California Sur today as the hurricane continues to slowly move away from the area. Rachel should reach near 21.0N 121.7W Wed morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.5N 123.0W Wed evening, 22.0N 124.3W Thu morning, 22.4N 125.4W Thu evening, and 22.8N 125.8W Fri morning. Rachel will become post-tropical as it moves to 24.2N 123.5W early Sat. Shower and thunderstorm coverage has been increasing in association with a broad area of low pressure (Invest 92E) located offshore of southern Mexico. Currently, peak winds are only near 20 kt and largest seas 7 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 08N-17N between 95W-105W. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or two while the system moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. The disturbance has a high chance of formation in the next 48 hours. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter, while it moves generally west-northwestward around 10 kt. Tropical cyclone formation chance is near zero through 48 hours and is low through 7 days.