Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Apr 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 06N91W. The ITCZ continues from that point to beyond 07N140W. A second southern hemispheric ITCZ extends from 04S88W to 04S119W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring within 200 nm on either side of the boundaries E of 114W, and W of 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails W of 115W, while lower pressures are noted over Mexico. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds across the nearshore waters N of 22N, while light to gentle winds are between 11N to 22N. Moderate seas prevail across these waters. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California with slight seas. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted across the Tehuantepec region, verified by latest scatterometer data. Seas are rough in these winds. An upper level trough shifting eastward into the area is producing multilayered cloudiness and scattered showers aloft across the Baja Sur offshore waters, across Baja Sur and into the south and central Gulf of California. For the forecast, gentle to moderate NW winds and moderate seas are expected off Baja California through Mon, before winds freshen modestly as high pressure gradually strengthens across the region through midweek. Fresh to strong SW to W gap winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California tonight through Mon night, ahead of a couple of weak frontal boundaries that will approach Baja California Norte. Seas will build up to 5 or 6 ft with these winds. Elsewhere between Baja and Puerto Angel, winds will be moderate or weaker with moderate seas through the middle of next week. Pulsing fresh to strong northerly gap winds will prevail across and downwind of the Tehuantepec region through early Mon morning, with seas building up to 9 ft during the early mornings. Afterwards, mainly moderate and variable winds are expected through midweek. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo and extend downwind to near 89W, producing rough seas. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail in the Gulf of Panama, and extend beyond the Azuero Peninsula to 05N. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell dominate the remainder of the offshore forecast waters. Recent satellite altimeter data indicates that this SW swell is generating moderate seas between Ecuador and the waters S of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, fresh gap winds are expected to pulse to strong during the nighttime and early morning hours across the Papagayo region and downwind to 90W through Tue, as broad high pressure continues to dominate the NW Caribbean. Winds up to 30 kt, and seas up to 9 ft are forecast this weekend. In the Gulf of Panama, moderate northerly winds, occasionally fresh, are expected throughout the forecast period, with periods of stronger conditions most likely during the weekend. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Cross-equatorial SW swell will raise seas to 6 to 7 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Tue through Wed. Pulses of active convection will continue across the waters S of 09N through Mon, and will propagate westward. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Weak high pressure NW of the area extends a ridge southeastward into the area, and dominates the forecast area N of 15N and W of 110W, including the Revillagigedo Islands. A sharp upper level trough continues across the area N of 15N between 115W and 130W, and is inducing unstable conditions, with multilayer clouds and scattered showers from 20N to 28N between 110W and 122W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to about 14N between 100W and 125W, and south of 24N to the west of 125W. Moderate seas in mixed NW and S swell generally prevail across the area waters. For the forecast, a broad and weak high pressure ridge will dominate the weather pattern across the northern forecast waters through early Mon, with little change in winds and seas, before the high shifts southeast Mon through midweek to strengthen the pressure gradient modestly. Moderate winds are expected in the trade wind zone W of 95W through Mon. On Sun, another cold front will enter the N waters, and likely reach the northern Gulf California on Mon. Gentle to moderate N winds and moderate seas are forecast in the wake of the front.