Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected

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Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Sep 22 2026 Corrected Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 14.7N 101.6W at 22/1500 UTC, moving north at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 920 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 145 kt with gusts to 175 kt. Peak seas have risen up to near 44 ft or 13.5 m. Satellite imagery shows that Polo has a clear and well defined eye, with very deep convection continuing to wrap around an eyewall. Numerous strong convection in wide bands are within 270 nm of the center in the SE quadrants. Numerous moderate to strong, also in bands, is elsewhere within 150 nm of the center, except 240 nm in the SW quadrant. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 17N to 19N between 102W and 106W. Polo is forecast to turn toward the northwest and west-northwest is expected tonight and Wednesday. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to be near the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days, although forecast to remain offshore. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is likely through tonight, with fluctuations in strength possible Wednesday and Wednesday night. Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 3 to 6 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 8 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacán through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Rainfall of 2 to 4 inches is possible in coastal portions of Oaxaca, Colima, and Jalisco through Thu. Swells generated by Polo are expected to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Storm Odalys is centered near 14.9N 130.5W at 22/1500 UTC, moving north at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft or 6 m. Satellite imagery shows that Odalys is continuing to improve in organization. Numerous strong convection is within 180 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, 240 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, 360 nm of the center in the SW quadrant and 60 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Odalys is slowly moving toward north. A turn toward the northeast and then east-northeast is expected to occur over the next day or so. An east-northeast to eastward motion is expected through the end of the week. Additional strengthening is forecast, and Odalys could become a hurricane later today or tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Polo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both systems. Heavy Rainfall over Central America: A mid to upper-level trough currently extends over the NW Caribbean while relatively warm sea surface temperatures are present, and in addition there is a potential for a Central American Gyre to form during the next several days. All of these factors are expected to lead to enhanced moisture funneling into Central America and the Caribbean to support heavy rainfall from September 22nd through the 25th. There is still some uncertainty regarding the exact location of heaviest rainfall, but for now heavy rainfall looks likely. Heavy rainfall in these regions will raise concerns for life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. Please consult products from your local weather office. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W north of 05N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm either side of the wave from 12N to 13N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A shortened monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to across the southwestern Caribbean Sea, then northwestward to across southern Nicaragua and to 12N87W and to 11N90W. Scattered moderate convection is within 90 nm north of the trough between 88W-90W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected Please see the Special Features section above for details on rapidly intensifying Major Hurricane Polo. Aside from conditions associated with Polo, moderate to fresh NW winds are offshore Baja California per overnight ASCAT scatterometer data, with moderate or weaker winds across the remainder of the waters. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 7 ft across the remainder of the waters away from Polo. For the forecast, major Hurricane Polo will move to near 15.0N 101.5W this evening with maximum sustained winds 155 kt gusts 190 kt, to near 15.4N 101.9W Wed morning with with maximum sustained winds 150 kt gusts 185 kt, to near 16.1N 102.8W Wed evening, to near 16.7N 104.2W Thu morning with maximum sustained winds 140 kt gusts 170 kt, to near 17.1N 105.9W Thu evening with maximum sustained winds 130 kt gusts 160 kt, and to near 17.3N 107.5W Fri morning with maximum sustained winds 125 kt gusts 150 kt. Polo will move to near 18.4N 110.8W early Sat with maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt. Otherwise, moderate to locally fresh NW winds will prevail across the offshore Baja California waters through early Fri morning when conditions in Baja California Sur offshores will start to deteriorate due to the proximity of Polo. Looking ahead, Tropical Storm Odalys currently well to the southwest of the southern tip of Baja California is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane and gradually approach the waters just beyond the Baja California offshore waters by the end of the upcoming weekend. Outer swells associated with Odalys will propagate into the Baja California waters and mix with those from Polo to create very confused and hazardous seas this weekend. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early Thu, then pulse into the upcoming weekend. Also, an area of low pressure is expected to form in the next few days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterward, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form late this week or this weekend as the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward. This motion should keep it parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the region, except slight seas nearshore Colombia, eastern Panama and in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are over the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador due to a tropical wave approaching 90W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are east of the wave over the outer offshore waters of northern Costa Rica. For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds are expected to prevail across the offshore waters for the next several days, except becoming moderate to fresh offshore El Salvador and Guatemala Thu into early Sat as an area of low pressure is expected to form just west of the area south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A tropical depression could from this area of low pressure late this week or this weekend as the system moves slowly away from the offshore waters. Swells from this system may potentially impact the western portion of the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on extremely dangerous category 5 Hurricane Polo, and on Tropical Storm Odalys. Outside of Odalys and Polo, fresh to strong winds, and rough seas, are over the waters from 14N to 24N and west of 133W due to a tight gradient between high pressure over the northwest portion of the area, Odalys and a remnant low pressure west of 140W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, major Hurricane Polo will move to near 15.4N 101.9W Wed morning, to near 16.1N 102.8W Wed evening, to near 16.7N 104.2W Thu morning with maximum sustained winds 140 kt gusts 170 kt, to near 17.1N 105.9W Thu evening with maximum sustained winds 130 kt gusts 160 kt, and to near 17.3N 107.5W Fri morning with maximum sustained winds 125 kt gusts 150 kt. Polo will move to near 18.4N 110.8W early Sat with maximum sustained winds 115 kt gusts 140 kt. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Odalys is forecast to strengthen to a hurricane near 15.2N 129.9W this evening with maximum sustained winds 65 kt gusts 80 kt, move to near 15.3N 128.7W Wed morning with maximum sustained winds 75 kt gusts 90 kt, to near 15.6N 127.3W Wed evening, to near 16.1N 126.0W Thu morning, then begin to gradually weaken as it reaches to near 16.7N 124.8W Thu evening with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt and to near 17.4N 123.7W Fri morning. Odalys is then forecast to weaken to a tropical storm near 18.9N 123.0W early Sat with maximum sustained winds 55 kt gusts 65 kt. Very large seas generated by both systems will merge by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend as the systems get closer together resulting in very dangerous and hazardous conditions. Otherwise, high pressure over the remainder of the area will pretty much maintain moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas.