Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Nov 15 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2120 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Large NW swell following frontal boundary: A cold front extends from northern Baja California Norte to off Punta Eugenia to 16N130W, where it becomes a stationary front to 15N140W. The front is expected to move slowly eastward while it weakens and dissipates over the next day or so. A recent altimeter satellite pass confirmed 8 to 12 ft seas follow the front, due largely to NW swell. The leading edge of the swell 8 ft or greater extends from near Cabo San Lazaro to 13N130W to 10N140W. The rough seas have reached the offshore waters of Baja California and will continue to expand southward today, reaching the Revillagigedo Islands tonight. The area of 8 ft or greater seas will continue southward and reach from 05N to 20N west of 110W by Sun night, then subside below 8 ft. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N90W to 07N105W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N105W to 06N125W and beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 10N to 12N between 92W and 97W, and from 08N to 10N between 125W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... In addition to the large NW swell described in the Special Features section, a scatterometer satellite pass from 18 UTC showed fresh to strong S to SW winds ahead of the front along the coast of Baja California Norte. The same pass indicated moderate to fresh SW winds ahead of the front over the northern Gulf of California, but light breezes and 1 to 2 ft prevail elsewhere across the Gulf. Farther south, the scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico. For the forecast, the weakening cold front will slowly drift eastward across Baja California and the Gulf of California this evening, bringing fresh to occasionally strong winds and seas to 12 ft in NW swell to the waters off Baja California Norte. Expect fresh to strong SW gap winds across the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front overnight into early Sun. Looking ahead, another frontal boundary will bring fresh NW winds and rough seas to the Baja California offshore waters late Mon into midweek. Winds may pulse to strong in the northern Gulf of California late Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak high pressure centered north of the Caribbean Sea dominates the basin, supporting moderate easterly winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, a weak high pressure pattern will persist across the basin into early next week, supporting moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will freshen up by midweek in the Gulf of Papagayo, while moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are expected south of 05N. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section regarding large NW swell following a stationary front in the region. Aside from the NW swell behind stationary front described in the Special Feature section, an elongated area of low pressure persists along the monsoon trough between 90W and 100W. A scatterometer satellite pass from 1630 UTC showed fresh to strong S to SW winds are flowing into this area, and a concurrent altimeter pass showed 6 to 9 ft seas southward to the Equator, mixing with NW swell. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present. For the forecast, outside of the area in the Special Features section, the fresh SW winds will persist into the monsoon trough into early next week, between 90W and 100W, supporting seas to 9 ft. Looking ahead, the large NW swell following the front will gradually subside as it moves into the tropical Pacific and mixes with shorter-period wind waves generated by moderate to fresh trade winds. Another front may move into the waters west of Baja California Norte early next week, followed by large NW swell north of 28N and east of 130W. Looking ahead, a building ridge over northern waters will support fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas in the trade waters west of 120W by midweek.