Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Oct 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Simon is centered near 17.4N 104.8W at 10/1500 UTC, moving north at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 938 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt. Peak seas are near 30 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within 60 nm N and 90 nm S semicircles. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 13N to 21N between 101W and 108W. The hurricane is moving toward the north, and this general motion is forecast to continue through the weekend. On the forecast track, Simon is expected to be near or just inland of the west-central coast of Mexico on Sunday. Simon is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening remains possible today, and Simon is forecast to approach the coast of west-central Mexico as a major hurricane tonight or early Sunday. An Air Force Reconnaissance aircraft is scheduled to investigate the hurricane later today. Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum totals of 30 inches possible across portions of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Sunday. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Simon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Rachel is centered near 25.5N 119.6W at 10/1500 UTC, moving northeast at 19 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are near 21 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 27N to 30N E of 121W. A northeastward to north-northeastward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is expected to approach northern Baja California today and move onshore tonight. Rachel's post-tropical remnants will then move across the southwestern United States on Sunday. Tropical Storm conditions are expected to begin on the west coast of the Baja California peninsula by this evening. Some strengthening is possible through tonight, but rapid weakening is expected after Rachel moves inland over Baja California and the southwestern United States on Sunday. Rachel is likely to become post-tropical by Sunday morning. Rachel will bring 1 to 3 inches of rain to portions of Baja California this weekend. Waves generated by Rachel will continue to build along the coasts of Southern California and northern Baja California today. These waves, combined with an incoming long-period southerly swell, will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Coastal flooding and erosion are expected to worsen tonight into Sunday morning as the highest waves coincide with the high tides and water levels that are already running well above predicted levels. Moderate to major coastal flooding is expected, with hazardous coastal conditions continuing into early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 10N97W, then resumes near 13N120W to beyond 10N140W. In addition to the convection associated with Rachel and Simon, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N E of 130W to the coast of Colombia, and from 01N to 11N W of 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Rachel. Outside of the areas impacted by Simon and Rachel, a weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, Hurricane Simon will move to 18.1N 105.0W this evening, 19.1N 105.2W Sun morning, inland to 20.4N 105.4W Sun evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 21.7N 105.4W Mon morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 23.0N 105.5W Mon evening, and dissipate Tue morning. Meanwhile, will move to 28.2N 117.5W this evening, inland to 33.0N 115.3W Sun morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 38.5N 112.5W Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning. Expected increasing winds and building seas over the northern Gulf of California tonight into Sun as Rachel approaches Baja California Norte. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop south or southwest of the coast of Mexico by early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle or latter half of next week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 kt. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are noted N of 02N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail S of 02N. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast waters through the middle of next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Rachel and Major Hurricane Simon. Outside of the influence of Tropical Storm Rachel, moderate to fresh winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail N of 18N and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, as Rachel moves over the southwest United States, a cold front is forecast to extend across the northern forecast waters on Sun. Fresh N to NE winds and rough seas, in long period northerly swell, will follow the front forecast to reach from the northern Gulf of california to near 20N140W on Mon while dissipating. Large SW swell will continue to affect the waters S of the Equator and west of 105W over the next couple of days.