Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jul 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Genevieve is centered near 21.7N 127.2W at 31/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 993 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are near 27 ft or 8.0 m. Deep convection has rapidly diminished, with scattered moderate convection within 120 nm SW semicircle of the system. Genevieve is expected to maintain a steady weakening trend while continuing on a west- northwest track through the weekend. The system is forecast to become post- tropical late this weekend. Swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the Baja California Peninsula and Southern California. These swells will persist for the next day or so, and are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?ripCurrents Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Genevieve NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W, N of 02N into the Western Caribbean, moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 113W, from 03N to 19N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 111W and 119W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N90W. The ITCZ extends from 07N90W to 05N96W to 07.5N110W. A segment of the central Pacific monsoon trough extends from southwest of Genevieve near 14N131W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 82W and 89W, from 03N to 09N between 102W and 107W, and from 10N to 14N between 134W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh N gap winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail. Seas are slight in the Gulf of California and moderate in the remaining offshore waters. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong gap in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish today. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are expected to pulse tonight nearshore Baja California. Fresh SE to S winds may pulse nightly in the northern Gulf of California, possibly reaching strong speeds Sat night. NW swell may lead to rough seas offshore Baja California Norte Sun night and Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeasterly gap winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate to locally fresh gap wind are in the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to moderate winds are noted between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through Sun, with occasionally rough seas. Moderate to fresh winds will then pulse thereafter. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected across the remainder of the waters through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Genevieve. For waters not being impacted by Genevieve, high pressure is centered just northwest of the area. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and Genevieve is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds to the northwest of Genevieve. Seas in this region are in the 7 to 9 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail over the remainder of the discussion waters. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Genevieve will move to 22.2N 129.1W this afternoon, 23.1N 132.1W Sat morning, 23.9N 134.9W Sat afternoon, 24.7N 137.9W Sun morning, 25.5N 140.4W Sun afternoon, and weaken to a remnant low near 26.6N 142.7W Mon morning. Away from Genevieve, little change in marine conditions is forecast through the weekend. Rough northerly swell off California is likely to push southward into the waters off Baja California Norte north of 27N and east of 130W by the end of the weekend into early next week. New large southerly swell may build south of the Equator and west of 100W beginning Tue night.