Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected

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Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Dec 20 2025 Corrected forecast for Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Central America, Colombia, and within 750 nm of Ecuador. Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to 09N84W to 10N100W to 10N109W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 10N109W to 10N120W to 09.5N130W and to beyond 07.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 10N to 15N between 109W-120W, and also from 10N to 16N between 120W-124W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient over southeastern Mexico has slackened during the past several hours allowing for gap northerly in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region to diminish to fresh to strong speeds. Seas are to 8 ft (2.5 m) with these winds. Elsewhere, a 1022 mb high center is analyzed near 30N126W. High pressure generally covers the area north of 16N and west of 115W. Latest scatterometer satellite data indicates mostly gentle to moderate north to northeast winds across the Mexican waters, with the exception of moderate to fresh northwest to north winds along and just offshore Cabo Corrientes. Slight to moderate seas are over these waters. In the Gulf of California, winds are light and variable, except for gentle southeast to south in the northern portion. Seas are 3 ft or less in the Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure north of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will support fresh to near gale-force northerly winds and moderate to locally rough seas over the next several days. Winds may occasionally pulse to gale-force at night from Mon through Wed and possibly on Thu night. Elsewhere over the majority of the waters, a relatively weak pressure gradient will lead to moderate or weaker winds and seas into the early part of the upcoming week. Looking ahead, a cold front will approach the offshore waters of Baja California Norte by the middle portion of the upcoming week possibly producing fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...Corrected The gradient related to high pressure along the eastern United States is allowing for fresh to locally strong northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo. These winds extend downstream to near 90W. Seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft. Farther east, moderate to locally fresh north winds with seas of 2 to 4 ft are in the Gulf of Panama. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure building southward along the United States eastern seaboard will support fresh to strong northeast to east winds, mainly during late night and into the early mornings in the Gulf of Papagayo over the next several days. In the Gulf of Panama, mainly gentle to moderate north winds are expected through the period, except for winds occasionally reaching fresh speeds at night as weak low pressure meanders off Colombia. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will continue to only force moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas across the remainder of the forecast waters into the start of the upcoming week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1022 mb high center near 31N126.5W dominates the wind flow regime over the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. Partial scatterometer satellite data passes indicate moderate to locally fresh trade winds over the waters north of the ITCZ to near 26N and west if about 120W. Seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft as suggested by altimeter satellite data passes. Gentle to moderate trade winds are east of 120W along with seas of 4 to 6 ft as seen in an altimeter satellite data pass. Gentle to moderate southeast to south winds are south of the monsoon trough along with seas of 4 to 5 ft, and moderate to locally fresh east to southeast winds are south of the ITCZ with seas of 5 to 6 ft, except for slightly higher seas south of the trough to near 05N and west of 138W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are evident. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the waters north of the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough and west of about 110W through at least Sun, with little change in winds and seas. Beginning Sun night, a surface trough is expected to form along the ITCZ near 120W as a deep layer trough sharpen while digging southward toward the tropical region. This feature should enhance deep convection and strengthening winds for a couple of days. At the same time, a cold front will reach the NW waters near 30N140W, to be preceded and followed by fresh to strong winds. The front is expected to attendant to weak low pressure that may move to the northern waters near 29N135W by early on Mon. By the the middle portion of the upcoming week, broad low pressure north of the area is expected to produce strong to near gale-force westerly winds and rough to very rough seas north of about 23N.