Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jan 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient develop in the Tehuantepec region on Fri as an arctic high pressure will build southward over eastern Mexico. North winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will reach strong to near-gale speeds Fri afternoon, and gale-force on Fri night, possibly lasting until late Tue. Seas are expected to build to 12 to 18 ft late on Sat. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 05N90W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ between 115W and 128W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec from Fri night/early Sat through early next week. See the Special Features section above for more details. The pressure gradient between surface ridging west of the Baja Peninsula and a surface trough over W Mexico supports fresh northwest winds in the Gulf of California. Seas are slight to moderate in the Gulf. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, winds over the remainder of the Mexican waters are gentle to moderate along with moderate seas. Scatterometer data indicated gentle to moderate northwest winds over the offshore waters from Guerrero to southern Jalisco. For the forecast, a strong cold front that will move across the Gulf of America will usher in another round of gale conditions in the Tehuantepec region beginning Fri night. These winds may peak to strong gale force, with seas possibly reaching to around 18 ft late on Sat. These conditions will prevail through early next week. High pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will continue to force moderate to fresh northwest winds across the Gulf of California before diminishing Sat night. Large northwest swell will over the waters west of Baja California Norte will slowly decay through Fri. There is also potential for another set of northwest swell to move through the waters west of Baja California Norte late this weekend and early next week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong to near-gale NE winds will prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo region extending westward to near 91W. Seas are rough with these winds. Fresh gap winds prevail in Gulf of Panama area along with moderate seas. Over the remainder of forecast waters, winds are gentle to moderate in speeds along with moderate seas in northwest to north swell. For the forecast, high pressure over Central America and the western Caribbean will maintain fresh to strong NE to east gap winds in the Papagayo region through the weekend. NE winds will increase to gale-force over Papagayo on Sun night and Mon, as an Arctic high pressure builds southward over eastern Mexico. A new Tehuantepec event should again produce large to very large northwest to north swell over the Guatemala and El Salvador waters Sat night into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging prevails across the area. The pressure gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressures in the deep tropics is bringing moderate to fresh trades from north of the ITCZ to near 25N and west of about 120W. A large northwest swell is moving through the northwest part of the area, mainly N of 10N and W of 120W. Elsewhere, moderate seas in mixed swell prevail. For the forecast, the coverage area of the fresh trades will prevail through Fri, then decrease as a cold front moves across the NW part of the area while weakening. The large northwest swell will continue propagating southeastward reaching 07N by Fri afternoon, but then gradually decay into Sat. Large to very large northwest swell will follow the cold front through the waters west of about 130W through the weekend.