Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jul 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Douglas is centered near 17.4N 127.1W at 1500 UTC, moving north at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas of up to 4.5 m extend up to 150 nm from the center. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 16.5N to 20N between 124.5W and 129W. Douglas is expected to continue northward today and gradually turn to the northwest tonight through Fri, and gradually weaken as is encounters an unfavorable atmospheric and oceanic environment. Douglas is forecast to become a tropical depression tonight, a post- tropical remnant low on Fri, and dissipate over the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Four-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 98W, south of 15N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Associated convection is described below in the INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH section. A tropical wave has entered the eastern tropical Pacific, and is along 83W, south of 20N in the NW Caribbean, moving west at 10-15 kt. Associated convection is also described below in the INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75.5W to 05.5N79W to 09N87W to 05.5N100W to 15N116.5W, then resumes south of Douglas from 13N127W to 08.5N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 11N E of 90W, and from 00N to 12N between 90W and 107W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 06.5N between 107W and 122W and within 180 nm S of a line from 19N122W to 13N127W to 09N135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific, southeastward through 30N124W, then weakly south-southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. This pressure pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in NW swell across the Baja California waters, except to 7 ft across the far outer waters of Baja Norte. Fresh to locally strong N gap winds continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec to 14.5N, where seas are 6 to 7 ft seas in SW swell. Gentle to moderate SW to S winds continue across the northern Gulf of California, where seas are 3 ft or less. Light to gentle winds are ongoing elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, including the remainder of the Gulf of California. Seas are moderate in SW swell in the remainder offshores, except slight in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the surface ridge will drift SW and weaken through the remainder of the week, producing gentle to moderate winds for the Baja California offshore waters. Moderate NW swell moving across these waters will maintain moderate seas through through the weekend, as it mixes with cross-equatorial SW swell. Fresh to strong N gap winds will pulse nightly in the Tehuantepec region through early next week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue to dominate the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 90W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across this area. Gentle northerly winds are across the Gulf of Panama. Moderate SE to S winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in cross- equatorial SW swell dominate waters S of 03N between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell prevail across the remainder central America and Colombia offshore waters N of 02N. Scattered to numerous strong convection continues across the waters N of 05N from Colombia to offshore of Guatemala, producing strong gusty winds and locally rough seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo region into early next week, leading to occasional rough seas. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will dominate area seas through the weekend and keep seas moderate to the S of 05N through Mon, increasing to near 8 ft near the Galapagos Islands Mon night. Scattered thunderstorms will persist across the offshore waters through at least Sun as a pair of tropical waves move through the region. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section on Tropical Storm Douglas. A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific southeastward through 30N124W, then weakly south-southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong winds within 300 nm to the N and NW of Douglas, where seas are 8 to 11 ft. Elsewhere south of the ridge, moderate to fresh NE to E winds, and 6 to 7 ft seas in N swell prevail north of 22N and west of 120W, outside the vicinity of Tropical Storm Douglas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are ongoing elsewhere, except near Douglas and the areas of convection described above. For the forecast, the ridge will drift southwestward and generally persist across the region through early next week. Douglas will move northward to 18.2N 127.3W late this afternoon, weaken to a tropical depression near 19.5N 127.7W Fri morning, then become a remnant low near 20.6N 128.3W late Fri afternoon, and continue northwestward and gradually dissipate through late Sun or Mon.