Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jul 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the early to middle part of this week while the system moves generally west- northwestward well off the coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, this system is likely to bring fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas across the offshore waters of SW Mexico starting late today into tonight. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at website www.hurricanes.gov for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 95W, and extends northward over SE Mexico, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 16N between 91W and 101W. The axis of a tropical wave is along 131W from 08N to 18N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. A 1007 mb low pressure is analyzed along the wave axis near 13N131W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 14N between 128W and 132W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 04N88W to 10N97W to 06N105W to 10N113W, then resumes near 11N124W and continues along 13N131W to 07N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, a cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to 07N E of 80W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection can be found from 07N to 10N between 84W and 87W, from 14N to 18.5N between 101W and 104.5W, and from 05N to 10N W of 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting light to gentle winds. Similar wind speeds are also noted in the Gulf of California. Slight to moderate seas dominate the offshore waters of Baja California while slight seas are in the Gulf of California. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with moderate seas. Over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, winds are gentle to moderate from the NW and seas are generally moderate, primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through early Thu, allowing for gentle to moderate NW to N winds to continue along with moderate seas in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail during this period. Similarly, pulses of fresh to strong winds will persist in the Tehuantepec region through Tue, then mainly moderate to fresh winds are expected. Otherwise, a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds are across the Papagayo region and downwind to 90W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW prevail elsewhere. Currently, clusters of moderate to isolated strong convection are noted offshore Colombia and Costa Rica. Winds and seas are likely higher near thunderstorms. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region through Thu night along with moderate to rough seas. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas may impact the waters offshore El Salvador and Guatemala today through Mon night as a broad area of low pressure persists several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands where slight seas are expected. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge prevails across the waters N of 20N W of 110W. Under the influence of the ridge, mainly gentle to moderate winds are observed. S of 20N, a tropical wave is along 131W. A surface trough runs from 19N113W to 06N131W. Scattered shower activity is near the trough axis. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with moderate seas. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure located well west-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development is possible over the next day or two before the system moves west-northwestward into a less favorable environment. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and also through 7 days.