Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Nov 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0835 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to a 1008 mb low pres near 10N86W and to 07N99W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N99W to 11N119W and then from 10N122W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 14N and between 82W and 92W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... An extensive subtropical ridge over the central United States continues to extend southward into NE Mexico and the Gulf of America. A tight pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics is sustaining fresh to near gale-force northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured winds up to 29 kt. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high pressure near 33N130W and lower pressures across NW Mexico is supporting moderate to locally strong NW winds and seas of 2-4 ft across much of the Gulf of California. Moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds and seas of 7-10 ft are found in the offshore waters of Baja California. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a strong high pressure building over NE Mexico will support fresh to near gale-force northerly winds and rough seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue night. Winds and seas will diminish quickly thereafter. However, another gap wind event may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thu night, possibly reaching gale-force into the upcoming weekend. Meanwhile, a series of pulses of moderate to large NW swell will continue to impact the Baja California waters into early this week. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds will continue in the northern and central Gulf of California through this morning. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds and rough seas may reach the offshore waters of Baja California late next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms continue to affect the offshore waters of Central America, especially from El Salvador to Costa Rica. This activity is associated with a weak area of low pressure centered just off Costa Rica. Heavy rainfall may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides across affected land areas. Please refer to your local weather agency and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more details. Moderate to fresh cyclonic winds and moderate seas are noted north of 05N and between 84W and 90W. Locally strong winds are also noted near the areas of strong convection. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, some development of the aforementioned low pres system is possible over the next day or so while the system drifts slowly northwestward. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for additional development as the system turns westward away from land. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America over the remainder of this weekend. The chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours and through the next 7 days is low. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama early this week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad subtropical ridge located north of the remainder of the eastern Pacific basin continues to support moderate to fresh NE-E winds north of the ITCZ and west of 115W. This was confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 8- 10 ft, as indicated by a couple of altimeter passes in the last few hours. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 7-10 ft are occurring south of 03N and east of 120W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and seas of 6-8 ft prevail. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the area, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and rough seas west of 120W over the next few days. Cross-equatorial swell will continue to produce rough seas close to the equator, lingering into the middle of this week. By midweek, strong winds and very rough seas will follow a cold front entering the NW waters, spreading southeastward over the following days. Seas may reach around 17 ft Thu night.