Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Feb 08 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure across the eastern slopes of Mexico and lower pressure associated with the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting gale-force northerly winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec along with peak seas to around 10 ft. These conditions are forecast to drop below gale-force by early this afternoon, then pulse back up to gale-force late tonight before diminishing to fresh to near gale strong speeds afterward into early on Tue. Seas in the Gulf region are forecast to diminish to 6 to 8 ft in west to northwest swell early on Tue. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will pulse in the Papagayo region well into the upcoming week. Winds will reach minimal gale-force late tonight into early on Mon due to the pressure gradient between between high pressure centered over the western Gulf of America and relatively lower pressure associated with the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough. Rough seas will accompany these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from northwest Colombia southwestward to near 01N81W. The ITCZ is identified to begin at 04N90W and continue to 02N102W, then northwestward to 05N110W and westward to 04N120W to 04N130W and to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 north and south of the ITCZ between 108W-110W, and also within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 114W-116W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the Special Features section above for details. Aside from the Gale Warning area, gentle to moderate northwest winds are west of Baja California, while light to gentle northerly winds prevail elsewhere. Light and weaker winds are in the Gulf of California north of 29N, and gentle northwest winds are south of 29N. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the Mexican waters, except for higher seas of 8 to 10 ft in long-period west to northwest swell north of 17N and west of 110W. Slight seas prevail across the Gulf of California. For the forecast aside from the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale event, the long-period northwest swell will reach to near 108W today, then decay. A cold front is expected to move across the waters west of Baja California Norte from late Tue into Wed while weakening. A set of northwest swell in the wake of front may move through the outermost offshore waters of Baja California Norte Tue night and Wed. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Papagayo. Please see the Special Features section above for details. Aside from the Gulf of Papagayo, moderate to fresh northeast winds and rough seas are over the eastern part of the offshore waters of Guatemala associated with the ongoing Gulf of Papagayo gap wind event. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Papagayo, fresh to strong north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds late Mon night and continue with little change through midweek. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1028 mb high center is analyzed north of the area at 31N130W, with a ridge axis extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Overnight scatterometer satellite data depicts light to gentle anticyclone winds north of 25N and west of 126W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure to the south associated with the ITCZ is producing fresh to strong trades from 07N to 13N west of 130W, and fresh trades elsewhere from 06N to 23N west of about 120W. Seas over these waters are 8 to 10 ft in long-period northwest swell mixed with wind generated waves, except mixed with northeast to east swell west of 125W. Fresh east winds generated from the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event are spreading westward to near 108W as seen in overnight scatterometer satellite data passes over those waters. For the forecast, the seas to 10 ft in the long-period northwest swell will gradually subside to 6 to 8 through Mon, however, another set of long-period northwest swell will be impacting the waters west of about 127W at that time. Otherwise, high pressure will build over the waters north of 20N through the rest of the weekend and into early next week. The trades over the western half of the area are forecast to diminish some late on Mon and into Tue as a cold front moves into the NW part of the area. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected behind this front along with seas building to 8 to 10 ft in northwest swell.