Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Sep 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0950 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Norbert is centered near 16.4N 117.9W at 10/0900 UTC, moving west at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are 12 ft within 90 nm NE quadrant of the center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 13N to 19N between 113W and 118W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 03N to 11N between 117W and 125W. A generally westward motion is expected over the next couple of days. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is expected to become a tropical storm on Thursday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Fourteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 92W north of 02N through Guatemala. The wave is moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong conveciton is from 04N to 15N between 90W and 100W. A tropical wave has its axis along 105W north of 02N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 22N between 100W and 111W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 08N100W to 10N111W, then continues SW of T.S. Norbert from 13N119W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 03N to 11N E of 90W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 10N W of 136W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh winds and rough seas associated with the outer periphery of Tropical Storm Norbert are affecting the outer offshores of the tip of Baja California Sur. Fresh to strong N gap winds continue across the Tehuantepec region and downwind to near 14N. Moderate to locally rough seas are with these winds. Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters of Baja California under the influence of a weak ridge centered near 27N124W. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are present elsewhere across the remaining Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, Norbert will move to 16.6N 119.9W this afternoon, 16.7N 122.5W Fri morning, 16.7N 124.8W Fri afternoon, 16.9N 126.9W Sat morning, 17.3N 128.9W Sat afternoon, and 17.8N 130.4W Sun morning. Norbert will strengthen to a hurricane over 18.5N 133.5W early Mon. A trailing tropical wave is forecast to provide mainly moderate to fresh SE winds to the SW Mexican offshore waters through today. Otherwise, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds will continue to pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are blowing in the Papagayo region and downwind to 90W, with moderate to rough. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds are across the offshores between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands along with moderate seas. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Fri, then mainly moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos through tonight, then diminishing some afterward. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas in long period SW swell are forecast elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please, see the Special Features section for more information about Tropical Storm Norbert. Tropical Storm Norbert is near 16.4N 117.9W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. For the forecast, Norbert will move to 16.6N 119.9W this afternoon, 16.7N 122.5W Fri morning, 16.7N 124.8W Fri afternoon, 16.9N 126.9W Sat morning, 17.3N 128.9W Sat afternoon, and 17.8N 130.4W Sun morning. Norbert will strengthen to a hurricane over 18.5N 133.5W early Mon. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula this weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves generally westward. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.