Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jul 1 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Newly-named Tropical Storm Douglas is centered near 15.7N 127.0W at 01/2100 UTC, moving north at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas of up to 4 m extend eastward up to 120 nm from the center. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted E of the center from 12 to 18N between 124W and 131W. Douglas is expected to gradually turn to the northwest later this week, continuing similar speed. Douglas is expected to remain a tropical storm through Thu, before dry air and cooler water lead to weakening by Fri. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Four-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 118W from 18N southward, and moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 111W and 121W. Another tropical wave is noted along 94W from Mexico southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 89W and 99W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 05N103W to 15N123W. An ITCZ has developed from 09N135W to 07N140W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is from 01N to 09N east of 89W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 15N between 99W and 111W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific, southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This pressure pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in NW swell across the Baja California waters. Inside the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft generally prevail. Light to gentle winds dominate the remaining waters, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in primarily cross- equatorial S swell. Fresh N gap winds continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across this area. Scattered thunderstorms continue across the far offshore waters S of 12N. For the forecast, the surface ridge that extends SE to the Revillagigedo Islands will drift SW and weaken through the remainder of the week, producing gentle to moderate winds for the Baja California offshore waters. Moderate NW swell moving across these waters will maintain moderate seas into Thu night. Fresh to strong N gap winds will pulse nightly in the Tehuantepec region through the weekend. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds continue to dominate the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 92W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft across this area. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell prevail across the remainder central America and Colombia offshore waters N of 02N. Moderate S winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in cross- equatorial S swell dominate waters S of 02N between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo region into the weekend, leading to occasional rough seas. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will keep moderate to locally rough seas near the Galapagos Islands through tonight. Thunderstorms will persist for the offshore waters from Costa Rica to Colombia into tonight. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section on Tropical Storm Douglas A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific southeastward to just N of the Revillagigedo Islands, and is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds, and 6 to 8 ft seas in N to NE swell, north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, outside the vicinity of Tropical Storm Douglas. East of 120W and north of the monsoon trough, gentle NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed swell prevail. Gentle to moderate mainly S winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in primarily S swell prevail S of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Douglas will move to 16.7N 127.1W Thu morning, 17.7N 127.3W Thu afternoon, then weaken to a tropical depression near 18.8N 127.6W Fri morning. Douglas will become post-tropical and move to 19.7N 128.2W Fri afternoon, then reach 20.5N 129.1W Sat morning. Post-tropical Cyclone Douglas will be near 21.0N 130.3W Sat afternoon. Douglas will change little in intensity as it moves across the NW basin Sun afternoon.