Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon May 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N85W to 07N95W to 09N91W. The ITCZ continues from 09N91W to 08N120W to beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 106W and 127W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 05N to 08.5N between 86W and 88W, from 03N to 07N between 108W and 115W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to near gale-force northerly wind are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec along with 6-9 ft seas. Fresh to strong S-SW winds are in the northern Gulf of California due to a locally tight pressure gradient where seas are up to 5 ft. Seas are 3 ft or less across the remainder of the Gulf of California. Mainly light to gentle winds dominate the remainder of the waters along with 4-6 ft seas in NW swell. For the forecast, the late-season gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region, with fresh to strong winds and rough seas up to 9 ft will last through Mon morning. Then, winds will diminish to 15 to 20 kt, with seas of 6 to 7 ft on Mon afternoon. Otherwise, fresh to strong S to SW winds and moderate seas are expected in the northern Gulf of California tonight, and again Mon night. Winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds offshore Baja California beginning on Tue night as a stronger ridge builds there. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are expected. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and moderate seas, primarily in S-SW swell dominate all the offshore forecast zones. Convection impacting portions of the offshore waters is described above. For the forecast, abundant tropical moisture and surface convergence will persist across the offshore waters from Colombia to Nicaragua, including the Gulf of Panama, likely through midweek, continuing to support the development of showers and thunderstorms across the area. Meanwhile, fresh easterly winds are expected in the Papagayo region tonight through Tue, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Similar winds may return Thu night into the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas, in primarily southerly swell, are expected through the week. Looking ahead, a set of SW swell may build seas to locally rough south of the Galapagos Islands Fri night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong upper-level winds are advecting abundant multilayer clouds across the NW and N waters into Baja California Norte and NW Mexico. A ridge continues to dominate the forecast waters north of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 18N between 115W and 140W. Seas are 6-9 ft there. Elsewhere under the influence of the ridge, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. High pressure north of the area is going to tighten the pressure gradient north of the ITCZ. In response, trade winds north of the ITCZ to about 18N and west of 130W are going to increase to fresh to strong speeds tonight through Tue night, also sustaining the rough seas. A combination of NW and southerly swells should support moderate seas for the remaining waters through most of the week.