Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue May 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 82W from the western Caribbean Sea southward across western Panama into the eastern Pacific, and moving west at 5 kt. It is enhancing convection near the monsoon trough described in the section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 10N85W to 07N90W. The ITCZ extends from 07N90W to 1007 mb low pressure near 08N129W, then to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 02N to 06n between 85W and 90W, from 08N to 12N between 95W and 100W, and from 05N to 10N between 115W and 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle NW breezes cover most of the Mexican offshore waters this evening, as broad ridge extends over the region from a 1034 mb high pressure area centered near 38N140W. Light breezes are noted across the Gulf of California. Large 8-11 ft NW swell still is present off Baja California, but is subsiding. Combined seas are 4-6 ft elsewhere primarily in NW swell. For the forecast, the residual large, long-period NW swell will maintain 8 to 11 ft seas off Baja Norte through tonight, then subside to between 6 and 8 ft by Tue afternoon. Seas of 8 to 11 ft near Baja Sur will also drop to between 6 and 8 ft by Tue afternoon. Winds near Baja California and the Revillagigedo Islands, and in the Gulf of California will become mostly gentle this evening, and stay this way most of this week. The only exception will be moderate with locally fresh NW winds off Cabo San Lucas in the night-time and early morning hours. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh E gap winds with 5-7 ft seas persist across the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate breezes with 3-5 ft seas are noted elsewhere. No significant showers or thunderstorms are active currently, but there was earlier activity south of Panama associated with a tropical wave and the monsoon trough. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo mainly in overnight and early morning hours through Thu morning. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds along with moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the end of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1034 mb high near 38N140W across 30N136W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This feature is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds north of the ITCZ west of 120W. Under long-period, large to moderate NW swell, seas in this area range from 7 to 12 ft, with the highest near 30N125W. For the waters north of the ITCZ east of 120W, gentle to moderate NE to E winds with 6 to 9 ft seas in mixed moderate swells exist. Gentle to moderate SE to E winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail south of the ITCZ. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will continue to gradually weaken while shifting westward through midweek. This will allow winds and seas north of the ITCZ to steadily subside from east to west through midweek, becoming gentle to moderate winds with 6 to 8 ft seas by Thu. Winds south of the ITCZ will also becoming gentle by Thu with seas staying at 5 to 7 ft in mixed swells.