Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jun 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central and Western Portion of the East Pacific (EP94): Showers and thunderstorms are starting to show some signs of organization in association with the low pressure system located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Environmental conditions are currently favorable for continued gradual development, and a tropical depression could form within the next day or so as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. By Thursday, the system is forecast to move into an unfavorable environment, which should end the chances for further development. There is a medium chance for tropical cyclone development in the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 84W, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 98W, south of 16N, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 111W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. An area of low pressure has developed along this tropical wave near 16N111W. Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information on this low. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N91W to 13N109W to 08N127W. The ITCZ extends from 08N127W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 08N E of 82W, from 04N to 11N between 87W and 91W, from 09N to 16N between 98W and 112W, and from 05N to 10N between 112W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails west of the area, while a surface tough is in the Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting gentle to moderate winds west of Baja California, extending southward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle to moderate winds are also in the Gulf of California as well as south of southern Mexico, except fresh to strong in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are moderate or less over the discussion waters. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure west of the area and a surface trough over the Gulf of California will support moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California through tomorrow, and moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds over the northern Gulf of California tomorrow night. Gap winds will increase in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri. These N to NE winds should peak at strong to locally near gale on Wed and Wed night. Elsewhere, winds and seas across the Mexican Offshores should be quiescent, except for large swell off southern Mexico by the end of the week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong gap winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo area, where seas are estimated to be 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting a Gulf of Papagayo region gap wind event that may last for the next several days. Fresh to strong pulses may last through Thu. Elsewhere winds should remain quiescent until the end of the week. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue over the waters west of Colombia and south of Panama through tonight. Large S swell should reach the equatorial waters Wed through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more information on EP94. Broad ridging dominates the waters north of 20N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 130W, where seas are in the 6-8 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft are elsewhere N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-8 ft prevail south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. For the forecast aside from EP94, a low pressure system is likely to form this weekend over the central portion of the East Pacific basin. Some slow development of this system is possible after that time, and it could become a tropical depression early next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph.