Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jun 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad, elongated 1007 mb trough of low pressure, Invest Area EP95 with a poorly defined center is located near 12N124W, along a developing monsoon trough. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are noted north of this feature from 14,5N to 18N between 120W and 312W. Refer to the INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH section for more detail on convection. Gradual development of this system is likely during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of this week while the system moves generally northwestward and then northward. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive by the end of the week, ending its chances of development. This system has a high chance for tropical cyclone formation for the next 2 to 7 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 107W from 16N southward, and moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is flaring up from 05N to 11N between 100W and 113W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends westward from near central Panama to 10N85W to 07N89W. Farther west, a developing monsoon trough curves southwestward from 12N121W through EP95 mentioned in the Special Features section to 05N140W. An ITCZ runs west- northwestward from 07N89W to 06N105W, then resumes from 06N109W to 12N121W. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found near the first ITCZ segment but south of the first monsoon trough, from 02N to 07N between 79W and 100W, including waters near the Colombia coast, and in the far southern offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring in the vicinity of the developing monsoon trough from 04N to 17N between 113W and 134W. Scattered moderate convection is present farther west from 01S to 10N west of 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from the northeast Pacific across 30N135W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This pressure pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft in NW swell across the Baja California waters, with the highest seas farther west of Baja Norte. Inside the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh SW to W gap winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present in the northern Gulf, while gentle to moderate S winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft generally prevail across the rest of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds dominate the remaining waters from the Revillagigedo Islands to near Salina Cruz, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in primarily cross- equatorial S swell. A narrow channel of fresh N to NE gap winds continues across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending offshore to near 14N. Seas are 6 to 7 ft across this area. For the forecast, the broad surface ridge extending southwestward across the eastern Pacific to near the Revillagigedo Islands will remain prominent today, then drifting westward and weaken slightly through the remainder of the week. This pattern will produce gentle to moderate winds across the Baja waters through Fri, with locally fresh winds possibly each late afternoon and evening. Moderate NW swell moving across these waters will maintain moderate seas, except rough seas for the far western offshore waters of Baja Norte through Thu. A narrow channel of fresh N to NE gap winds will continue to pulse to strong, and sustain moderate to rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region from the nighttime to late morning hours each night and morning through Sat. Fresh to strong W to SW gap winds are also expected in the northern Gulf of California until late this morning, then become moderate to fresh Tue through Wed morning. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue to dominate the Papagayo region and extending offshore to near 90W and northward across coastal Nicaragua to the Gulf of Fonseca. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across this area. Satellite scatterometer data from earlier last night showed moderate to fresh N winds across the Gulf of Panama extending southward to near 6N, where seas are 4 to 5 ft. Gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell prevail across the remainder central America and Colombia offshore waters N of 02N. Gentle to moderate S winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in cross- equatorial S swell dominate waters S of 02N between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Refer to the INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH section for more detail on convection in the region. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong gap winds and moderate to rough seas will continue across the Papagayo region through the weekend, as a strong ridge persists north of the region. NE to E swell generated by these winds are expected to maintain moderate to locally rough seas well downstream to beyond 90W. Farther south, cross-equatorial southerly swell will keep moderate to locally rough seas near the Galapagos Islands and off Ecuador through Thu morning. Periods of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will persist near the Colombia coast, and across the southern offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama through this evening, then spreading northward late tonight and Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section at the beginning about Invest Area EP95. A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from the northeast Pacific across 30N135W to near the Revillagigedo Islands is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas north of the ITCZ and west of 120W, outside the area mentioned in the Special Features section. East of 120W and north of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 6 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swell prevail. Light to gentle winds and seas at 6 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swell are noted near and south of the ITCZ to near 04N. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds with 6 to 8 ft seas in cross-equatorial S to SE swell prevail elsewhere south of 04N. For the forecast, regardless of development on EP95, a gradual increase of winds and seas will continue along the northern portion of this area of low pressure this week, as a broad high pressure ridge persists north of the area. Outside of this system, little changes are anticipated north of the ITCZ for the next several days. South of the ITCZ, a gradual decrease in both winds and seas will occur by Wed.