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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Sep 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The eastern Pacific remains active, with yet another tropical cyclone developing in the basin today. Tropical Depression Fourteen-E forms well south-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula. It is centered near 15.7N 115.2W at 09/2100 UTC, moving west- northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 10 ft per altimeter data. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm E semicircle of center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere to the E of center from 10N to 18N between 111W and 115W. A generally westward motion is expected over the next couple of days. Gradual strengthening is forecast over the next several days, and the depression could become a tropical storm tonight or Thursday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Fourteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 90W north of 03N through Guatemala. The wave is moving westward at about 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong conveciton is from 03N to 10N between 84W and 91W. A tropical wave has its axis along 101W north of 03N. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to 15N between 91W and 107W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N84W to 08N95W to 13N110W, then continues SW of T.D. Fourteen-E from 12N120W to beyond 09N140W. In addition to the convection associated with T.D. Fourteen-E and the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted N of 04N E of 84W to the coast of Colombia, and from 01N to 08N W of 122W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas associated with the outer periphery of recently upgraded Tropical Depression Fourteen-E are reaching the Revillagigedo Islands, particularly Clarion Island. A recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to strong N gap winds across the Tehuantepec region and downwind to near 14N. Moderate to locally rough seas are with these winds. Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters of Baja California under the influence of a weak ridge extending between the peninsula and the remnant low of Marie, which is now just north of the forecast area near 30.5N129.5W. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds are evident over the northern Gulf of California while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the remainder of the Gulf. Seas are 1 to 3 ft, highest near the entrance to the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are present elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, with the exception of moderate to fresh winds just ahead the tropical wave located along 101W. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas associated with the outer periphery of T.D. Fourteen-E will continue to affect Clarion Island tonight. Winds and seas will diminish on Thu as the tropical cyclone moves westward and away from the region. The trailing tropical wave is forecast to provide mainly moderate to fresh SE winds to the SW Mexican offshore waters through Thu. Otherwise, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds will continue to pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula this weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are blowing in the Papagayo region and downwind to 90W, with moderate to rough. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds are across the offshores between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands along with moderate seas. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds with slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Fri, then mainly moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos through tonight, then diminishing some afterward. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas in long period SW swell are forecast elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please, see the Special Features section for more information about recently upgraded Tropical Depression Fourteen-E The remnant low of Marie has moved just N of area, and now is center near 30.5N129.5W. Fresh to strong SE to S winds and rough seas are still noted N of 29N between 126W and 129W. Seas 8 ft or greater associated with this system cover the waters N of 27N between 125W and 135W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Fourteen-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 15.9N 117.1W Thu morning, move to 15.8N 119.6W Thu afternoon, 15.7N 122.0W Fri morning, 15.6N 124.2W Fri afternoon, 15.9N 126.1W Sat morning, and strengthen to a hurricane near 16.2N 127.8W Sat afternoon. Fourteen-E will change little in intensity as it moves to near 17.4N 130.9W Sun afternoon. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula this weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.