Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Nov 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0235 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to a 1007 mb low pres near 11N89W to 06N95W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N95W to 05N110W and to 08N125W and then from 09N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed north of 07N and between 85W and 91W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N and between 116W and 128W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure north of the area continues to support fresh to locally near gale-force northerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. In the remainder of the basin, a broad subtropical ridge centered off California extends southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands, sustaining moderate or weaker winds. Seas of 7-9 ft are found in the offshore waters of Baja California due to a long-period NW swell. Elsewhere, slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to near gale-force northerly winds and rough seas to 8 ft will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed morning. Another gap wind event may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thu night, possibly reaching gale-force into the upcoming weekend. Moderate to large NW swell will impact the Baja California waters into early this week. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas approaching 12 ft may reach the offshore waters of Baja California late in the week, associated with a frontal system. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak 1007 mb low pressure, Invest EP96, located off Nicaragua is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting areas from El Salvador to Nicaragua and offshore waters. Moderate to locally strong winds and moderate seas are occurring north of 10N and east of 91W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4-7 ft in mixed SW and W swell. For the forecast, some additional development of EP96 is possible through early Monday while it drifts slowly northwestward. Thereafter, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development as the system turns westward away from land. There is a low chance for tropical cyclone development with this system. However, showers and thunderstorms will remain active tonight through at least Mon morning across the waters and along the coasts of Central America. Fresh to strong winds will funnel across the Papagayo region north of the invest area this evening, then pulse at fresh to strong through early this week. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through the middle of the week. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds, and moderate seas, will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the tropical eastern Pacific supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and rough seas to 12 ft across much of the basin, especially north of 10N and west of 115W. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh SE winds and seas to 9 ft are occurring south of 03N and east of 120W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the surface ridge will amplify some, increasing the trades to fresh from 10N-22N west of 125W Mon night into Wed. While the current NW swell will gradually subside, another reinforcing pulse of swell will be entering the NW forecast waters this evening. The large NW swell will reach from 20N140W to 20N120W Tue night. The mixed swell over the equatorial waters will persist for the next several days. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will reach our NW border at 30N140W Wed bringing with it fresh to strong NW winds and very large seas north of 22N through at least Thu.