Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Nov 29 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1505 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 05N94W to 09N115W to 09N130W. The ITCZ stretches from 09N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 10N and east of 91W and from 07N to 20N and west of 100W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A strong high pressure system over the eastern United States continues to sustain fresh to strong N winds and rough seas to 10 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The remainder of the basin is under a weaker pressure gradient, allowing for primarily moderate N to NW winds and moderate seas from 16N to 24N, affecting the offshore waters of SW Mexico. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, strong winds will persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, diminishing to fresh speeds this evening. Strong speeds winds will briefly resume in Tehuantepec Sun night into late Mon, and then again Tue night into Wed. Otherwise, a surface trough is forecast to develop SW of the Baja California Sur offshore waters today and then will drift NE, impacting the waters near the Revillagigedo Islands with moderate to fresh NE to E winds Sun into Mon. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast elsewhere through Wed night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the Caribbean supports fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas in the Gulf of Papagayo and downstream to 92W. Meanwhile, south of the monsoon trough and between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate from the S to SW and seas are moderate to 6 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh NE winds and moderate seas will prevail in the Papagayo region through Sun, and resume again Wed night. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are forecast elsewhere through the forecast period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1023 mb high pressure system dominates the waters N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ west of 110W. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated with the monsoon trough and ITCZ continues to sustain moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds N of these boundaries to about 20N and W of 105W. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. In the far NW waters, a long-period NW swell with peak seas to 10 ft continues to progress southeastward. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a long-period NW swell progressing across the NW waters will push southeastward before diminishing Sun night. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds and locally rough seas will persist in the western tropical waters through today. Another large set of NW swell is forecast to arrive to the NW waters by the end of the weekend and into early next week with seas peaking around 12 ft.