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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Aug 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Karina is centered near 16.4N 118.8W at 29/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are around 33 ft (10 m). Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 14N to 17N between 118W and 122W. Similar convective activity is seen in a band to the E of center from 11N to 16N between 114W and 117W. Karina is moving toward the west-northwest, followed by a more westerly motion over the next day or two. Karina is just below hurricane intensity. Strengthening is forecast during the next several days. Karina is forecast to become a hurricane within the next day and could become a major hurricane early next week. Swells generated by Karina will begin to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Karina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 13.2N 137.1W at 29/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently around 15 ft (4.5 m). Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within 150 nm W semicircle. Lowell is moving toward the west-northwest. A westward motion should resume during the next few hours and continue for the next several days. Gradual strengthening is expected during the weekend, and Lowell could become a hurricane by Monday or Monday night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: An area of disturbed weather, associated with a tropical wave, is located well to the south of southwestern Mexico. This system is expected to move west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form in the next several of days. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 101.5W from 04N to 15N, moving quickly westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 10N to 12N between 95W AND 107W. Recent scatterometer pass indicates fresh to strong E to SE on the E side of the wave axis from 11N to 14N between 99W and 101.5W. Seas are moderate with these winds. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N90W to 18N104W, and W of 11N140W. In addition to the convection near Karina, Lowell and the tropical wave, scattered moderate to strong convection is observed from 04N to 09N between 80W and 84W. This convective activity is affecting parts of western Panama and southern Costa Rica. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Karina, and an area of disturbed weather with the potential of tropical cyclone formation. While the main impacts of Karina remain west of the Mexican offshore waters, strong to near gale force winds and rough to very rough seas on the far northeast periphery of Karina are reaching the Revillagigedo Islands. Outer rainbands associated with the cyclone's circulation are also moving across the islands. Fresh to strong N gap winds continue to blow across Tehuantepec region and downwind to near 14N. Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds and slight seas dominate the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will strengthen to a hurricane near 16.9N 120.4W Sun morning, move to 17.4N 122.0W Sun afternoon, 17.7N 123.7W Mon morning, 17.9N 125.3W Mon afternoon, 18.3N 126.8W Tue morning, and 19.0N 128.8W Tue afternoon. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to near 20.4N 131.5W Wed afternoon. The strong to near-gale force SE winds and rough to very rough seas on the far northeast periphery of Karina will continue to impact the waters around Clarion Island into Sun, then diminish through Mon as Karina continues to move away from the area. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds and occasional rough seas will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sun. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected across the northern and central Gulf of California through Sun night into Mon. Locally stronger winds may occur. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 10N92W, with 6 to 9 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the weekend into early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Associated moderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds may freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into early next week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the monsoon trough. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Tropical Storm Karina, Tropical Storm Lowell, and an area of disturbed weather with the potential of tropical cyclone formation. A trough, associated with the remnant low of Post-Tropical cyclone Iselle, extends from 27N133W to 21N134W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are occurring near the northern end of the trough axis and mainly N of 25N W of 129W. Elsewhere, mainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the open waters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from the two tropical storms and the aforementioned trough. Rough seas generated by Karina cover the waters from 09N to 20N between 111W and 122W. Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will strengthen to a hurricane near 16.9N 120.4W Sun morning, move to 17.4N 122.0W Sun afternoon, 17.7N 123.7W Mon morning, 17.9N 125.3W Mon afternoon, 18.3N 126.8W Tue morning, and 19.0N 128.8W Tue afternoon. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to near 20.4N 131.5W Wed afternoon. Tropical Storm Lowell will move to 13.2N 138.6W Sun morning, 13.1N 140.9W Sun afternoon, 13.1N 142.8W Mon morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 13.2N 144.5W Mon afternoon, 13.3N 146.2W Tue morning, and 13.4N 147.6W Tue afternoon. Lowell will change little in intensity as it moves to near 13.8N 150.0W Wed afternoon. Seas 8 ft or greater generated by Karina will cover a large area by Sun afternoon, particularly from 08N to 28N between 110W and 130W.