Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jan 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 10N85W to 04N102W. The ITCZ continues from 04N102W to 07N120W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 110W and 124W, and from 06N to 11N between 126W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1011 mb low pressure center is just W of Punta Eugenia from which a surface trough extends SW across the Baja California Sur offshore waters to 19N121W. High pressure building N of the area supports moderate NW winds in the wake of the trough, currently affecting the Baja offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas are moderate to 5 ft. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, including also the Gulf of California and Tehuantepec, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough will move across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through Sat morning, and across the southern Gulf of California by early Sat afternoon. The pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure building southward across the forecast region will support fresh to locally strong NW winds in the wake of the trough. Similar wind speeds are also expected just ahead of the trough axis. These winds will diminish to 20 kt or less by Sat evening. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is slated to begin Mon morning with winds rapidly increasing to strong gale force. Winds will further increase to storm force by Mon evening. Rough to very rough seas, likely reaching around 27 ft will be associated with this event. Marine interests transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week should be aware of this strong gap wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. Of note: The monthly distribution of Tehuantepec events shows that the largest number of gale force events occurs in December. Storm-force events occur most often in January. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh NE winds across the Papagayo region and downwind to 88W. Seas are 3 to 6 ft within these winds. Moderate to fresh N winds with slight to moderate seas are ongoing in the Gulf of Panama. Easterly moderate winds are across the outer Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters with 5 to 6 ft seas in mixed E and NW swell. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle with moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas in the Papagayo region through Sun morning. Fresh to strong winds in this region will resume again Mon and reach near gale force speeds by late Tue afternoon with rough seas. Moderate to fresh N winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Wed night. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or weaker through the middle of the next week. Otherwise, rough to very rough seas generated by a strong gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beginning Mon evening, and subside Wed. Fresh to near gale force N winds will also affect the western portion of the offshores Mon night into Tue evening. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends southward across the northern forecast waters from a 1028 mb high pressure located near 42N136W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is promoting and area of mainly fresh trades N of the ITCZ to about 20N and W of 130W. Seas are near 8 ft within these winds. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are moderate in mixed NE wind wave and long period NW swell. For the forecast, high pressure will build southward across the forecast region this weekend with a high pressure cell developing farther south near 32N135W. The high pressure will move E on Mon as cold front approaches the NW corner of the forecast area. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of the front by Mon evening. The front will reach from 30N135W to 25N140W by Mon night, and from 30N133W to 24N140W by Tue morning. Rough seas are expected in the wake of the front.