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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Sep 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 17.6N 111.0W, or about 340 nm west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico at 26/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 917 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 145 kt with gusts to 175 kt. Peak seas are 46 ft (14 m). Polo continues to look very impressive in satellite imagery as it remains a powerful category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A clear 15 nm wide eye is observed. The imagery reveals that Polo has numerous strong convection within 90 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, 75 nm in the SE and 120 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Polo will make a gradual turn toward the northwest late today and toward the north on Sun. By Mon, Polo is forecast to turn northeastward and approach Baja California Sur. Slow weakening is expected to begin tonight, but Polo is expected to remain a powerful hurricane as it approaches Baja California Sur on Mon. Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 10 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. Hurricane Odalys is centered near 19.1N 123.7W, or about 800 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California at 26/0900 UTC, moving north at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are 37 ft (11 m). Odalys is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Weakening is forecast to continue through early next week. A small eye has become obscured by clouds. Satellite imagery shows numerous strong convection within 120 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, within 60 nm in the S semicircle and 90 nm in the NW quadrant. Odalys is expected to maintain its current motion today, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Sun. An eastward to southeastward motion is forecast early next week. Weakening is forecast continue through early next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys. Low pressure South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: An area of low pressure, Invest EP90, located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in a day or two, while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours. The broader circulation, deep moisture, and instability associated with this system is already producing heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and Southern Mexico. Additional rainfall amounts through Sat night across portions of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala, as well as Chiapas and Oaxaca in Mexico, will raise concerns for life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to across the southwestern Caribbean Sea, to across northern Panama, to 08N83W to 09N90W to Invest EP90 and to 14N99W. It resumes south of Odalys at 14N122W to 11N127W to 10N130W and to 13N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to 08N between 84W-87W, from 05N to 09N between 127W-134W, and from 01N to 09N west of 135W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 08N between 92W-96W, and within 180 nm southeast of the trough between 122W-127W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricanes Polo and on Hurricane Odalys as well as developing low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehunatepec that is bringing very heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico. Fresh northeast gap winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Seas there are 5 to 7 ft. Overnight satellite scatterometer data passes indicate gentle to moderate northwest to north winds offshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters away from Hurricane Polo. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California. Large seas in long- period southeast to south swell out ahead of Polo are impacting the offshore waters of Baja California south of about Punta Eugenia and at the entrance of the Gulf of California. Seas produced by the swell are in the range of about 8 to 12 ft. Seas of 6 to 9 ft in west to northwest are over the offshore waters of the states of Michoacna and Guerrero and seas of 5 to 7 ft in west to northwest swell are over the waters of those states. Seas of 2 to 4 ft are in the central section of the Gulf of California, 3 ft or less in the northern section and 4 to 6 ft in the southern section of the Gulf. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near 18.3N 112.1W this afternoon, then begin to gradually weaken as it moves to near 19.7N 113.3W late tonight, to near 21.5N 113.8W Sun afternoon, to near 23.4N 113.8W late Sun night, to near 25.1N 113.2W Mon afternoon, and to near 26.9N 111.6W late Mon night. Polo is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression inland over NW Mexico late Tue night. Long-period swells generated by Polo will impact a good majority of the Mexican and Baja California offshore waters through the period. Meanwhile, Hurricane Odalys is near 19.1N 123.7W, or about 800 nm west- southwest of the southern tip of Baja California at 26/0900 UTC, moving north at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Odalys will move to near 19.9N 123.6W this afternoon, to near 21.0N 123.5W late tonight, then weaken to a tropical storm near 21.8N 123.1W Sun afternoon with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt, move to near 22.1N 122.7W late Sun night, become post-tropical and move to near 21.6N 122.1W Mon afternoon, then weaken to a remnant low near 20.7N 121.3W late Mon night and change little in intensity as it moves to near 18.5N 120.1W late Tue night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure, Invest EP90, located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in a day or two, while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to occasionally fresh east to southeast winds are offshore Guatemala and El Salvador as low pressure organizes south of the Gulf of Tehunatepec. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds dominate the basin. Moderate seas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near the Gulf of Panama. For the forecast, as low pressure develops to the west of the area, south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh southerly winds and locally rough seas are possible well offshore Guatemala through the weekend. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds expected to prevail across the offshore waters well into next week along with mostly moderate seas. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricanes Polo and Odalys. Outside of these hurricanes, high pressure is building southward over the northwest portion of the area. The gradient between it and Odalys has lead to fresh northeast winds covering the waters west of a line from about 30N123W to 22N130W and to near 15N140W. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft per overnight satellite altimeter data passes. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. The hurricanes have generated a broad area of rough seas from 09N to 26N and east of about 133W. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 17.6N 111.0W, or about 340 nm west-southwest of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 145 kt with gusts to 175 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 917 mb. Polo will move to near 18.3N 112.1W this afternoon, then begin to gradually weaken as it moves to near 19.7N 113.3W late tonight, to near 21.5N 113.8W Sun afternoon, to near 23.4N 113.8W late Sun night, to near 25.1N 113.2W Mon afternoon, and to near 26.9N 111.6W late Mon night. Polo is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression inland over NW Mexico late Tue night. Long-period swells generated by Polo will impact a good majority of the Mexican and Baja California offshore waters through the period. Meanwhile, Hurricane Odalys is near 18.8N 123.6W, or about 800 nm west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California at 2 AM PDT, moving north at 4 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 951 mb. Odalys will move to near move to 19.9N 123.6W this afternoon, to near 21.0N 123.5W late tonight, then weaken to a tropical storm near 21.8N 123.1W Sun afternoon with maximum sustained winds 60 kt gusts 75 kt, move to near 22.1N 122.7W late Sun night, become post- tropical and move to near 21.6N 122.1W Mon afternoon, then weaken to a remnant low near 20.7N 121.3W late Mon night and change little in intensity as it moves to near 18.5N 120.1W late Tue night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure, Invest EP90, located south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec is gradually becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in a day or two, while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form over the next day or so about 1000 miles to the east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form early next week. The system is forecast to move generally northeastward, remaining well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. Fresh to near gale southwest winds will develop south of the monsoon trough over the far western part of the area starting this afternoon in response to the developing area of low pressure, Seas are expected to build to around 8 to 11 ft with these winds.