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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jul 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Fausto is centered near 16.6N 120.3W at 22/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are near 29 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is occurring from 14N to 17.5N between 118W and 121W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 12N to 20N between 115W and 124W. Fausto is moving toward the west-northwest and a general west- northwestward to westward motion is expected for the next several days. Some slow strengthen is possible during the next 72 hours before atmospheric and oceanic conditions begin to become less favorable. Swells generated by Fausto are expected to reach the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula and SW Mexico tonight, and persist for a couple of days. These swells will likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Fausto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is relocated along 89W-90W N of 05N extending into Central America, moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 11.5N between 83W and 91W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N74W to 07.5N79W to 08.5N87W to 07N99W to 10N111W, where it breaks for Hurricane Fausto, then resumes near 12.5N127W to 09N137W. ITCZ extends from 09N137W to beyond 09N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave and Fausto, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 10N between 91W and 112W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 124W and 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Fausto, centered about 700 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California. Fausto is exiting to the W of the Revillagigedo Islands, leaving diminishing moderate SE winds across those area waters. However seas remain 8 to 11 ft in SW swell there. To the north of Fausto, a weak ridge extends eastward then southeastward into the Baja waters to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. This ridge is supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft N of Cabo San Lazaro, with higher seas in the 6 to 9 ft S of Cabo San Lazaro. Inside the Gulf of California, recent satellite altimeter data show gentle northerly winds across the offshore waters with diurnal heating leading to moderate to locally fresh winds along much of the coastlines, extending southeastward to near Acapulco. Gentle to locally moderate winds are found inside the Gulf of California, where seas are estimated at 1 to 3 ft except 4 to 5 ft in new SW swell from Fausto across the entrance. Sea are generally 4 to 5 ft across the Baja Norte waters and 5 to 9 ft in building S to SW swell across the Baja Sur waters to Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to moderate NW to W winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. Isolated thunderstorm clusters dot the waters S of 20N. For the forecast, as Hurricane Fausto moves westward and away from the region, high pressure will begin to build across the Baja California offshore waters overnight through Thu to produce moderate to fresh NW winds with isolated areas of strong winds near the coasts during the afternoon and evening hours. Swells generated by Fausto have begun to reach the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula and SW Mexico tonight, and persist for a couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected. Fresh northerly winds are forecast in the Tehuantepec region during the overnight and early morning hours through the week, with locally rough seas. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the eastern Pacific. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Afternoon satellite derived wind data indicated fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Papagayo region and downwind to about to 92W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these winds. Scattered thunderstorms are active along and south of these winds to 04N. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4 to 5 ft in S to SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas will persist across the Papagayo region through Wed night, with moderate NE winds pulsing to fresh farther N across northern Nicaragua to near the Gulf of Fonseca. Gentle to moderate N winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama with slight to moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected elsewhere. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well downwind of Papagayo and south of Tehuantepec over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form while it moves westward to west- northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the eastern Pacific, and beyond the local offshore waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Fausto, centered about 700 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California. Hurricane Fausto and the remnants of Elida, currently located well N of the forecast area, dominate conditions over the High Seas forecast waters N of 10N between 110W and 130W. Seas 7 to 8 associated with the remnants of Elida, are still affecting the waters north of 27N between 123W and 137W. Fresh to strong winds outside of the immediate circulation of Fausto extend to 22N, while moderate or weaker winds with moderate to locally rough seas prevail. For the forecast, Hurricane Fausto will continue to move west- northwest to westward through the rest of the week, reaching near 16.9N 121.4W Wed morning, 17.3N 123.1W Wed afternoon, 17.6N 125.3W Thu morning, 17.9N 127.8W Thu afternoon, 18.2N 130.6W Fri morning, and 18.6N 133.3W Fri afternoon. SE to S swell propagating away from Fausto will spread across the regional waters W of 120W Wed through Sat. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form while it moves westward to west- northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the eastern Pacific. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. As is typical during EL Nino years, the eastern Pacific remains active, with one tropical system potentially developing after another.