Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Mar 1 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough is analyzed from a 1008 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 04S86W to 05S96W. The ITCZ is south of the Equator and runs from 05S96W to beyond 05S120W. No significant convection is associated with these features. Of note: During March and April of each year, a double ITCZ is present in the southern hemisphere of the eastern Pacific basin, especially during La Nina periods when the cold equatorial sea surface temperatures are more common. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge continues to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting mainly gentle NW winds with moderate seas. Winds are mainly light elsewhere, except in the Gulf of Tehuantepec where moderate to fresh gap winds are increasing. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters seas are 3 to 5 ft, with seas of 1 to 3 in the Gulf of California and in the coastal waters of Baja California. For the forecast, winds will increase to fresh speeds N of Cabo San Lazaro starting Sun night as high pressure builds toward the region and the pressure gradient tightens. Fresh to strong gap winds are expected to pulse nightly in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the period. Looking ahead, a stronger high pressure will impact the waters N of Punta Eugenia by the middle of next week bringing increasing winds and building seas. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE winds are blowing across the Papagayo region with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Moderate gap winds are also developing in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, winds mainly light with slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected in the Papagayo area through Thu night as high pressure strengthens N of region. Winds will increase to 30 kt Sun night into Mon with seas building to 8 to 9 ft downwind of the Papagayo region to near 90W. At the same time, fresh to locally strong N winds and moderate seas are forecast in the Gulf of Panama and just S of the Azuero Peninsula, with winds from the Caribbean funneling into the Gulf of Panama. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A dissipating stationary front extends from 30N129W to 21N140W. Decaying seas of up to 8 ft are NW of this boundary. Ridging covers the forecast waters N of 15N W of 115W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are present along the southern periphery of the ridge with moderate seas. For the forecast, the front fully dissipate overnight, and seas associated with the boundary will subside below 8 ft. High pressure will build eastward in the wake of the front through early next week, causing northeast to east winds to gradually increase through much of the basin. A stronger high pressure will bring increasing winds and building seas by the middle of next week.