Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jan 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A partial scatterometer pass indicates that N winds of 40 to 45 kt are blowing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 14N. As a result, the Storm Warning is allowed to expire, but a Gale Warning will remain in effect through Thu morning. Visible satellite imagery show a rope clouds, that delineates the leading edge of the northerly wind flow associated with this strong gap wind event, extending beyond 100W. Large seas generated by this event will continue to propagate well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 12 ft or greater reaching as far south as 09N by this evening. Winds and seas will significantly diminish by Thu evening into Fri morning. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event is slated to begin across the Tehuantepec area by Fri night, with winds reaching again strong gale-force speeds on Sat. Currently, the forecast calls for N winds of 40 to 45 kt on Sat, with seas building to 16 to 18 ft by Sat night. Marine interests transiting across or in the Gulf of Tehuantepec need to monitor the ongoing event, and also the next one that is in store for this upcoming weekend, and take necessary action to avoid these hazardous marine conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N77W to 07N84W. The ITCZ continues from 07N84W to 04N100W to 06N120W to beyond 07N140W. Convection is limited. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu morning. See the Special Features section above for more details. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting gentle to locally moderate winds as indicated by the most recent scatterometer data. However, a tighter pressure gradient between a strong high pressure over the Great Basin and a trough over western Mexico is promoting moderate to fresh NW winds with seas of 3 to 5 ft in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas in NW swell dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore forecast waters. For the forecast, outside of the Tehuantepec region, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds the remainder of the work-week. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are expected in the Gulf of California, mainly across the central and southern parts of the Gulf, most of the forecast period as high pressure settles over the Great Basin. A new set of long period NW swell will reach the waters N of Punta Eugenia by Thu night, building seas to 8 ft across the outer offshore waters. This swell event will propagate across the outer offshore waters between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia on Fri. Seas are forecast to subside below 8 ft on Sat. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds are ongoing across the Papagayo region and downwind to about 90W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft within these winds. Moderate to fresh N winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in the Gulf of Panama and downwind to about 05N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are noted, with slight to moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue across the Papagayo region through the weekend as a tight pressure gradient persists over the NW Caribbean and northern Central America associated with a strong high pressure over the south-central part of the United States. Minimal gale conditions may be possible early next week. Moderate to fresh N winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Fri. Winds are expected to increase again to 20 to 25 kt across the Gulf of Panama and downwind beyond 05N early next week as a strong N winds flow prevails across the SW Caribbean. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or weaker through Sat. Otherwise, rough seas generated by a very strong gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through Thu. A second gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec over the upcoming weekend will also impact these waters with seas building to around 14 ft. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High of 1025 mb located near 29N123W dominates the forecast area N of 15N between 110W and 130W while a cold front is moving across the NW waters and extends from 30N131W to 24N140W. Winds are 20 kt or less in association with this front, but seas of 8 to 10 ft, in a new set of long period NW swell, follow the front. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports an area of fresh to strong trades from 11N to 13N between 114W and 118W based on recent scatterometer data. Seas are 5 to 8 ft within these winds. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are moderate in mixed NE wind wave and long period NW swell. For the forecast, the cold front is forecast to dissipate by late tonight. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. Rough seas of 8 to 11 ft behind the front will continue to propagate across the NW part of the forecast region tonight and Wed covering the waters NW of a line 30N129W to 19N140W by Wed afternoon. Another swell event will impact the NW waters on Fri as a new cold front approaches to 30N140W.