Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Feb 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough is analyzed from a 1010 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 09N75W to 04S86W to 02S99W to 04S108W. The ITCZ is south of the Equator and runs from 04S108W to beyond 04S120W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring S of the Equator to 10S and E of 96W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting gentle to moderate NW winds with moderate seas. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere, including the Gulf of California and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate seas prevail over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, with slight seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the forecast waters offshore of Baja California through the remainder of the week, producing mainly gentle to moderate NW winds with moderate seas. Locally fresh winds are expected N of Punta Eugenia today. Similar wind conditions are forecast across the offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro Sun night through Mon night as the pressure gradient tightens across the area between a stronger high pressure to the W and lower pressures over northern Mexico. In the Gulf of California, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas will prevail. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are forecast elsewhere through the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon and Mon night. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE winds continue extending downwind from the Gulf of Papagayo to near 10N90W with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh NE winds are just S of the Azuero Peninsula to about 05N with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected in the Papagayo area tonight through Fri night, then again Mon night as high pressure strengthens N of area. Moderate to locally fresh N winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast in the Gulf of Panama at night through at least Sun night. Seas generated in the gap wind regions of Tehuantepec and Papagayo will continue to propagate across the waters S of 08N between 95W and 117W today while subsiding. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is over the NW corner of the forecast region and extends from 30N134W to 20N140W. Fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas in NW to N swell are noted N of 28N and W of 135W. A 1022 mb high pressure is centered near 32N125W. The associated ridge covers the forecast waters N of 15N W of 110W, including the Revillagigedo Islands. Latest scatterometer data indicate moderate to fresh trades occurring from 04N to 10N between 90W and 122W. Seas generated in the gap wind regions of Tehuantepec and Papagayo continue to affect the waters S of 08N between 95W and 117W. A set of NW swell is propagating across the NW waters, mainly W of 130W and N of 20N, with seas in the 8 to 10 ft range. Rough seas are also noted from 04N to 12N and W of 128W. Elsewhere, seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail. For the forecast, the low pressure will lift northward while the associated cold front will continue to move slowly across the NW waters, reaching from 30N135W to 20N140W by this evening, then becoming stationary over the same area by Fri afternoon. As the low pressure moves away from the forecast region, the fresh to strong winds associated with the front will diminish over the forecast waters. The NW swell impacting the west-central and NW waters will also gradually subside over the next 24 to 48 hours.