Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri May 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0145 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N105W to 08N125W. The ITCZ extends from 08N125W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 84W and 96W, and from 02N to 12N between 102W and 123W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N W of 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient prevails over the region, supporting gentle to moderate winds over the open waters, and light to gentle winds over the Gulf of California. Seas are moderate, 4 to 6 ft, in NW swell across the offshore waters, except to 7 ft NW of Isla Guadalupe, and slight inside the Gulf of California. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will dominate through late week, leading to moderate seas and moderate or weaker winds. Moderate to fresh westerly gap winds will develop during the evening and nighttime hours across the central and southern Gulf of California through early Sat. High pressure will build modestly across the region from the W by late weekend and early next week. This will tighten the pressure gradient, leading to moderate to locally fresh winds offshore Baja California, with a slight increase in seas. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE to E gap winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, are over the Papagayo region. Moderate N gap winds and moderate seas to 4 ft, are over the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-7 ft prevail between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate gap winds will pulse to fresh each night across the Papagayo region. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell will prevail into the weekend. Expect periods of active convection S of 10N and E of 90W through Sat. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from high pressure centered NW of the area to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ and west of 135W, with moderate winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ west of 110W. Moderate winds are found elsewhere S of 01N, with light to gentle winds elsewhere over the discussion waters. Seas over the discussion waters are in the 6-7 ft range, except locally reaching 8 ft N of 05N and W of 135W. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will gradually weaken while shifting southwestward through the end of the week. This will loosen the pressure gradient and allow winds and seas north of the ITCZ to decrease slightly to between gentle to moderate, with seas of 5 to 6 ft, respectively, by this weekend. Little change is expected S of the ITCZ into the weekend. Active convection is expected to continue near the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 100W and 120W through Sat.