Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Sep 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0305 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Karina is centered near 19.3N 134.7W at 03/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 947 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Peak seas remain around 42 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed from 17N to 22N between 133W and 137W. A west-northwestward motion is expected over the next few days. A slow weakening trend is forecast the next few days, followed by a more steady rate of weakening. Karina is likely to remain a hurricane the next couple of days. Hurricane Marie is centered near 18.4N 113.1W at 03/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are around 33 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 12N to 22N between 106W and 117W. This motion should continue through tonight followed by a turn more west-northwestward for the next several days. Additional strengthening is forecast through Friday. Gradual weakening is anticipated to begin by this weekend. Swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next few days and will likely spread northward to southern California over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 94W, extending across SE Mexico to 06N, moving westward at 15 kt. No significant convection is present with this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough exits the coast of Costa Rica near 10N85W and extends to 08N103W and to 12N110W and then from 14N127W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 06N to 14N and west of 115W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Hurricane Marie centered southwest of Baja California, Mexico. Away from the impacts of Hurricane Marie, the pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge centered well northwest of the region and the hurricane support moderate to locally strong northerly winds and moderate seas across the offshore waters of Baja California, with the strongest winds occurring off Baja California Norte. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are noted in the northern Gulf of California. Elsewehre, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are evident in the offshore waters of Mexico. For the forecast, Hurricane Marie is near 18.4N 113.1W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Marie will move to 19.0N 114.3W Thu morning, 19.7N 115.7W Thu evening, 20.2N 117.3W Fri morning, 20.7N 118.6W Fri evening, 21.3N 119.7W Sat morning, and 22.0N 120.9W Sat evening. Marie will weaken to a tropical storm over 22.9N 123.3W late Sun. Elsewhere, a tight pressure gradient will result in fresh to strong S to SE winds in the N Gulf of California through Fri night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak high pressure north of the area supports moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas across the forecast waters. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms dot the waters off Panama and Colombia. For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient across Central America will sustain moderate to locally fresh strong E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo through the next several days. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds will prevail across forecast waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Hurricane Karina centered over a 1000 miles east of Hawaii, and Hurricane Marie located southwest of Baja California, Mexico. Aside from the impacts of Hurricanes Karina and Marie, moderate or weaker winds with seas 5-7 ft dominate the tropical NE Pacific. Otherwise, a small area of cross equatorial swell from the southwest is noted well west of the Galapagos Islands producing seas to 8 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Karina is near 19.3N 134.7W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 947 mb. Karina will move to 19.7N 136.1W Thu morning, 20.1N 137.9W Thu evening, 20.6N 139.6W Fri morning, and move west of our forecast waters Fri afternoon. Hurricane Marie is near 18.4N 113.1W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Marie will move to 19.0N 114.3W Thu morning, 19.7N 115.7W Thu evening, 20.2N 117.3W Fri morning, 20.7N 118.6W Fri evening, 21.3N 119.7W Sat morning, and 22.0N 120.9W Sat evening. Marie will weaken to a tropical storm over 22.9N 123.3W late Sun Elsewhere, the cross equatorial SW swell will diminish below 8 ft by tomorrow. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form well offshore of southwestern Mexico over the weekend or early next week. Gradual development is possible during the early to middle part of next week as the system moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, and is likely to remain well offshore of Mexico.