Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Nov 21 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Large NW swell over the northern waters: A cold front extends from a gale force low N of the area into the waters near 30N120W to 27N140W. The front will usher in a large set of NW swell that was generated from this gale force low. Very rough seas greater than 12 ft with wave periods of 12-14 seconds will enter the northern waters N of 29N and W of 130W overnight. Seas greater than 12 ft will then shift SE across the waters N of 26N and W of 117W through Sat before subsiding below 12 ft. Seas will peak near 14 ft Fri afternoon and evening. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N85W to 06N99W to 08N114W. The ITCZ extends from 08N114W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted E of 85W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 08N between 133W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for details on a large NW swell event. Moderate to locally fresh winds are moving into the far outer waters off Baja California Norte as a cold front is moving into the area. Moderate winds also prevail S and SW of Cabo San Lucas, as well as the entrance to the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds generally prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-7 ft range west of the Baja California peninsula and southward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas of 4-5 ft are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. Seas are 3 ft or less over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, a cold front will enter the Baja California Norte offshore waters tonight with moderate NW winds. A secondary push of cold air accompanied by an area of low pressure will quickly follow Fri night through Sat night, generating fresh NW to W winds with scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of Baja California Norte. The front will usher in a set of large NW swell, which will spread over the waters west of the baja California peninsula, and southward to the Revillagigedo islands through Mon before starting to subside. Fresh to strong N gap winds can be expected over the Gulf of Tehuantepec from Sat night to Sun night. Elsewhere, benign marine conditions are anticipated. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the Gulf of Papagayo, with moderate winds extending downstream of the papagayo region. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range, reaching 6 ft S of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected over and downstream of the Papagayo region into early next week. Moderate or lighter winds are forecast elsewhere during the forecast period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for details on a large NW swell event. A cold front extends from 30N120W to 27N140W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail N of the front. High pressure is building in the wake of the front, anchored by a 1031 mb high near 36N143W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to strong winds N of the ITCZ to near 21N and W of 130W. Seas over these waters are in the 8 to 10 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft prevail elsewhere. The cold front will progress quickly southeastward tonight and Fri, and is forecast to dissipate by Sat morning as it reaches 20N. Fresh to strong winds north of 25N on Fri will diminish below fresh by Sat morning. Seas 8 ft or greater generated from the frontal system will propagate across the area, covering much of the discussion waters N of 08N and W of 115W this weekend before starting to slowly subside early next week. The area of high pressure northwest of the discussion waters will weaken Friday night and Saturday. This will loosen the pressure gradient over the tradewind zone, with the trades diminishing.