Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Oct 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 20.9N 121.8W at 07/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are near 30 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 19N-23N and between 119W-123W. A generally west to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next couple of days. Rachel is then forecast to slow down before making a sharp turn to the northeast by the end of the week. Gradual to steady weakening is forecast over the next few days. Tropical Depression Twenty-E is centered near 14.1N 100.9W at 07/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are around 9 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is from 09N-16N between 97W-107W. This same general motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and the depression is forecast to become a tropical storm by tonight. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough exits coastal Costa Rica near 10N85W to a 1004 mb low near 13N100W. The monsoon trough restarts at 11N115W and extends to beyond 10N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is from 09N-16N between 97W-107W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02S-04N between 129W-140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Depression Twenty-E offshore of southern Mexico. Aside from the newly formed Twenty-E, the offshore zones west of Baja California Sur are still being impacted by large SW swell produced by Hurricane Rachel. The remainder of forecast waters has winds moderate or weaker with seas 4-7 ft over the Pacific waters and 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 21.3N 122.6W this evening, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.9N 123.8W Thu morning, 22.3N 124.8W Thu evening, 22.7N 124.9W Fri morning, 23.5N 123.7W Fri evening, and 25.2N 121.5W Sat morning. Rachel should reach the offshore zones off of Baja California Norte on Sat and become post-tropical. Finally, the system is forecast to move across Baja California Norte just south of the California- Mexico border near 31.0N 116.8W early Sun. Twenty-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 14.6N 102.0W this evening, move to 15.0N 103.3W Thu morning, 15.3N 104.3W Thu evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.8N 104.9W Fri morning, 16.4N 105.2W Fri evening, and 17.2N 105.2W Sat morning. Twenty-E will change little in intensity as it moves to 19.7N 105.4W early Sun as it approaches Cabo Corrientes. The system will slowly be traversing the offshore zones off of southern Mexico for the next five days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds across forecast waters are gentle with seas 4-6 ft. For the forecast, quiescent winds and seas should continue over the Central American and Equatorial Zones for the next few days. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala during the early portion of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter, while it moves generally west-northwestward around 10 kt. Tropical cyclone formation chance is near zero through 48 hours and is low through 7 days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel located over the NE waters. Away from Hurricane Rachel, a weak pressure gradient supports moderate or weaker winds across forecast waters. Large long- period SW swell is moving across the southern border between 95W-125W. Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 21.3N 122.6W this evening, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.9N 123.8W Thu morning, 22.3N 124.8W Thu evening, 22.7N 124.9W Fri morning, 23.5N 123.7W Fri evening, and 25.2N 121.5W Sat morning. Rachel should reach the offshore zones off of Baja California Norte on Sat and become post-tropical. Finally, the system is forecast to move across Baja California Norte just south of the California- Mexico border near 31.0N 116.8W early Sun. Additionally, the large SW swell will continue near our southern border for the next several days.