Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jun 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad and elongated area of low pressure, Invest EP95, continues to produce a large area of convection across the tropical eastern Pacific, about the monsoon trough and a poorly defined 1005 mb center located near 13.5N125.5W. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and seas of 7 to 10 ft are noted north and northwest of this feature from 11N to 19N between 120W and 132W. Refer to the INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH section for more details on convection. Satellite imagery suggests that convection is slowly gaining some organization, and a tropical depression is expected to form tonight or on Wednesday while the system moves generally northwestward and then northward. This system is expected to remain over the western portion of the East Pacific waters, to the W of 120W. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive by the end of the week, ending its chances of development. This system has a high chance for tropical cyclone formation during the next 7 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 111W from 18N southward, and moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 18.5N between 109W and 118W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 10.5N75W to 05N80W to 08N87W to 07N90W, then transitions to ITCZ continuing on to 08N107W. The monsoon trough then resumes from 09.5N112W through EP95 at 13.5N125.5W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 02N to 06.5N E of 89W, from 03N to 11N between 89W and 109W, and from 03.5N to 10N between 130W and 140W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 18.5N between 108W and 121W, and about EP95 from 08.5N to 17.5N between 121W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific, southeastward through 30N130W to just N of the Revillagigedo Islands. This pressure pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in NW swell across the Baja California waters, with 7 to 8 ft seas across the outer waters of Baja Norte. Inside the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh SW to W gap winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft are present in the northern Gulf, while gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft generally prevail across the rest of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds dominate the remaining waters from the Revillagigedo Islands to near Salina Cruz, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in primarily cross-equatorial S swell. A narrow channel of fresh N gap winds continues across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending offshore to near 13.5N. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across this area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the far offshore waters S of 12N, offshore of the coasts of eastern Guerrero to Chiapas. For the forecast, the broad surface ridge extending southeastward across the eastern Pacific to near the Revillagigedo Islands will persist tonight, then begin to drift southwestward and weaken slightly through the remainder of the week. This pattern will produce gentle to moderate winds across the Baja waters through Sat, with locally fresh winds possibly each late afternoon and evening. Moderate NW swell moving across these waters will maintain moderate seas through Thu, except rough seas across the far western offshore waters of Baja Norte. A narrow channel of fresh N to NE gap winds will continue to pulse to strong, and sustain moderate to rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region from the nighttime to late morning hours each night and morning through Sat. Moderate to fresh W to SW gap winds are also expected in the northern Gulf of California today through midday Wed. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds continue to dominate the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 92W and northward across southwestern Nicaragua. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across this area. Moderate N to NE winds continue across the Gulf of Panama and extend southward to near 04.5N, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell prevail across the remainder central America and Colombia offshore waters N of 02N. Gentle to moderate S winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in cross-equatorial S swell dominate waters S of 02N between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Refer to the INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH section for more detail on convection in the region, primarily extending from Colombia westward to 88W. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong gap winds and moderate to rough seas will continue across the Papagayo region throughout the week, and then begin to weaken slightly this weekend. NE to E swell generated by these winds is expected to maintain moderate to locally rough seas well downstream to beyond 90W. Farther south, cross-equatorial southerly swell will keep moderate to locally rough seas near the Galapagos Islands and off Ecuador through Thu morning. Periods of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will persist near the Colombia coast, and across the southern offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama through this evening, then expand northward late tonight through Wed night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section about Invest Area EP95. A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific southeastward through 30N130W to just N of the Revillagigedo Islands, and is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds, and 6 to 8 ft seas in N to NE swell, north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W. Winds and seas are higher to the N and NW of Invest EP95 as described above. East of 120W and north of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 6 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swell prevail. Light to gentle winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in mixed moderate swell are noted near and south of the monsoon trough to near 04N. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds with 6 to 9 ft seas in cross- equatorial S and SE swell prevail elsewhere south of 04N. For the forecast, regardless of development on EP95, a gradual increase of winds and seas will continue across the north and northwest portions of this area of low pressure this week, as it moves northward toward the broad high pressure ridge persisting north of the area. Outside of this system, little changes are anticipated north of the ITCZ for the next several days. South of the ITCZ, a gradual decrease in both winds and seas will occur by Wed.