Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Oct 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 05N97W. A trough is analyzed from 03N78W to 00N94W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 05N97W to 08N120W. Another trough is analyzed from 10N131W to 01N131W. A 1011 mb low is near 07N137W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted S of 05N and E of 120W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is S of 15N and W of 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas 5-7 ft. The pressure gradient between higher pressures over Mexico and a trough along the Gulf of California is supporting moderate S to SW winds over the southern and northern parts of the Gulf. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with 4-6 ft over the Pacific waters, 2-5 ft over the N and central Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong N gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through early next week, diminishing by Mon night. A developing extratropical cyclone should move into the waters west of the Baja California peninsula and over the N Gulf of California tonight into Sun with fresh to strong SE to SW winds and seas to 9 ft. Fresh to strong SW winds along with seas to 5 ft should occur over the Gulf of California on Sun in the wake of the extratropical cyclone. Moderate or weaker winds will likely return to the offshore waters Sun into Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas 4 to 7 ft. Moderate N winds along seas to 6 ft are present over the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 4-6 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring S of 08N east of 93W. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region should continue through Mon. Fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama should continue today before weakening on Sat. Large, long-period SW swell have reached the equatorial waters, and will diminish on Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1007 mb low is centered near 26N129W, with a cold front extending southwestward to 15N137W. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds prevail north of the low with seas to 8 ft. Moderate southwest winds are found along the cold front. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between weak ridging north of our waters and lower pressure over the monsoon trough is forcing only moderate or weaker trades across the forecast waters. Large, long-period SW swell is reaching northward across the equator to 08N between 87W-135W. Elsewhere, seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast, the low will become a strong extratropical cyclone and then move slowly eastward this weekend. The system should move over the offshore zones west of the Baja California peninsula on Sun with winds and seas diminishing by Sun night.