Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Nov 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant NW Swell Event: A series of NW swell sets will continue to impact the waters N of about 10N for the next several days associated with the passage of several cold fronts. Currently, a cold front extends from 31N124W SW to 28N131W to 27N140W. Ahead of the front, and extending as far south of 09N and W of 113W, rough seas of 8 to 12 ft in decaying NW swell associated with a former front is ongoing. The period of this swell is 9 to 12 seconds. Behind the front, a reinforcing and larger set of NW swell with 13 to 20 seconds period, is arriving tonight with peak seas around 25 ft near 31N134W. By Sat evening, the front is forecast to reach Baja California Norte N of Punta Eugenia to 24N130W while weakening with rough seas of 12 to 21 ft spreading as far south as 17N, and rough seas of 8 to 11 ft to 07N. These high energy waves will have a period of 13 to 18 seconds. These seas will keep spreading SE as yet another set with seas of 12 ft or greater arrives to near 30N140W by late Sat night into early Sun, spreading across the majority of the waters into early next week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/HSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Panama near 07N78W westward to 07N90W to 07N100W. The ITCZ extends from 07N123W to 07N132W and beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is between the coasts of W Colombia and Ecuador to 91W or just E of the Galapagos Islands. Similar convection extends from 06N to 11N between 102W and 108W associated with a surface trough near 106W, as well as N of the ITCZ from 05N to 10N W of 137W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 03S to 14N between 110W and 124W, and from 02S to 03N between 100W and 110W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong north winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec supported by the resultant pressure gradient between a high pressure system over central United States extending a ridge to the northern Gulf of America, and lower pressure associated to the monsoon trough south of the area. Seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft. Meanwhile, the pressure gradient between a cold front approaching Baja California Norte from the NW and high pressure over New Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds and rough seas of 8 to 12 ft with a period of 8 to 12 seconds in NW swell across the Baja California offshore waters. A pre-frontal trough supports fresh to strong SW winds over the northern Gulf of California with seas to 5 ft, and moderate or weakwer winds with seas to 3 ft elsewhere along the remainder Gulf. A weak pressure gradient present across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters is generally allowing for mainly light to gentle winds and slightly lower seas of 5 to 7 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas around 8 ft will continue over the Gulf of Tehuantepec into early on Sat. The next Tehuantepec gap wind event is forecast to begin by Mon evening, and continue through much of the next week. Winds there may reach gale-force starting late Tue and possibly continue through most of the period through Wed night. Fresh NW winds W of Baja California N of Punta Eugenia will diminish on Sat. Very rough seas from an expansive set of NW swell over these waters will peak to around 20 ft Sat night before gradually subsiding afterward. Fresh to locally strong winds in the northern Gulf of California will diminish by early Sat. Another rather expansive set of NW swell expected on Sat should build seas to around 19 ft over the outer offshore waters of Baja California Norte. Rough seas will reach all the way to past 100W, while additional and reinforcing NW swell sets continue to arrive. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weakened pressure gradient is generally providing for light to gentle winds over the Central American offshore waters. Slight to moderate seas are over these waters in mixed SW and NW swell of 3 to 6 seconds period. Slightly higher winds and seas are possible between the coasts of Colombia and Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands due to clusters of moderate to strong convection over that region. For the forecast, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds are forecast to return to the Papagayo region by late Sat night, reach strong speeds by Mon night, and continue through Thu. Moderate N winds may pulse in the Gulf of Panama early next week. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in merging SW and NW swell will remain through the next few days. Looking ahead, a set of NW swell may build seas to 8 ft or greater SSW of the Galapagos Islands by the middle of next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on a series of significant NW swell sets which will impact much of the open waters. A cold front extends from 31N124W SW to 28N131W to 27N140W. Ahead of the front, and extending as far south of 09N and W of 113W, rough seas of 8 to 12 ft in decaying NW swell associated with a former front is ongoing. Behind the front, a reinforcing and larger set of NW swell with 13 to 20 seconds period, is arriving tonight with peak seas around 25 ft near 31N134W. This front will sweep across the northern waters through Sat night while weakening as yet another cold front makes its entrance into the far NW part of the area. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds will follow in behind this front as well as another set of long-period NW swell enters the NW waters. Moderate to fresh trades are over the waters from 10N to 20N west of 120W. Seas over these waters are 8 to 11 ft in long- period northwest swell. Merging southwest and northwest swell supports combined seas of 7 to 9 ft over the waters S of 02N between 97W and 114W. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle and seas moderate. For the forecast, the cold front will move across the northwest and north-central waters through Sun bringing an even larger reinforcing northwest swell set, possibly reaching 23 ft along 30N. This set of swell with seas of 8 ft or greater will cover the waters north of 05N and west f 110W by late Sat night, then covering all of the waters west of 105W. Yet another set of large swell will arrive Sun, with seas of 8 ft or greater across the entire waters W of 105W by late Sun night, then across the waters west of 95W by Tue evening. Meanwhile, the mixed swell over the equatorial waters will diminish by early Sat. Looking ahead, another cold front may move into the northwest waters by the end of the weekend and into early next week bringing a large area of fresh to strong winds behind it as high pressure builds in behind the front. An additional pulse of large northwest swell will be following in behind this front.