Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jul 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Fausto is centered near 17.2N 122.0W at 22/2100 UTC, moving west at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are near 30 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is occurring within 75 nm of center. Numerous moderate convection is noted elsewhere from 13N to 17N between 118W and 122W. Fausto continues west over open waters. A continued west-northwestward to westward motion, along with an increase in forward speed, is expected over the next several days. Some gradual strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, followed by slow weakening on Friday and into the weekend. Swells generated by Fausto are affecting portions of the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula and are spreading northward toward the coast of southern California. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Fausto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Eastern and Central East Pacific: A tropical wave with axis along 92W continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is expected, and a tropical depression is likely to form over the weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, remaining well offshore of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 92W N of 05N extending into western Guatemala, moving westward near 10 kt. A 1008 mb low pressure is analyzed along the wave axis near 08N92W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 04N to 12N between 87W and 95W. Please, see the Special Features section for more information related to this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 1006 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 1008 mb low pressure near 08N92W to 06N105W, then resumes SW of Fausto from 13N128W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N E of 107W to the coast of Colombia. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Fausto, centered about 760 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California. Fausto continues to move westward and away from the Revillagigedo Islands, leaving gentle to moderate N to NE and seas of 6 to 8 ft across those area waters. A recent altimeter pass shows seas of 10 to 13 ft within about 145 nm west of Clarion Island. A ridge continues to build between Hurricane Fausto and the Baja California Peninsula. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to locally strong NW winds north of Punta Eugenia, and moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lucas. Seas generating by Fausto are spreading across the area, with seas up to 8 ft reaching the W coast of Baja California based on a pair of altimeter passes. Gentle to moderate NW to W winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, except for fresh to strong N gap winds across the Tehuantepec region and downwind to about 14N. For the forecast, as Hurricane Fausto continues to move westward and away from the offshore waters, high pressure will continue to build across the Baja California offshore waters tonight through Thu night. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a meandering trough over the Gulf of California will support fresh to strong NW winds and building seas N of Punta Eugenia through Thu night into Fri morning. Swells generated by Fausto will persist through Thu before fading. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected, increasing to fresh speeds Fri night through Sat night. Fresh northerly winds are forecast in the Tehuantepec region during the overnight and early morning hours through the week, with locally rough seas. Please refer to the Special feature section for details on the next tropical cyclone forecast to develop well offshore of Mexico over the upcoming weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Latest satellite scatterometer wind data show fresh to strong N to E winds continuing across the Papagayo region and downwind to about to 91W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds based on altimeter data. This is occurring behind a tropical wave with axis along 92W. The monsoon trough remains active across the offshore waters N of 04N. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4 to 5 ft in S to SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas will persist across the Papagayo region through Thu, then mainly moderate to fresh winds are expected. Gentle to moderate N winds are forecast in the Gulf of Panama with slight to moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere. Seas, associated with a broad area of low pressure currently located along the monsoon trough, may impact the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Thu through Fri, building seas to 6 to 8 ft. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Fausto, centered about 760 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California. Hurricane Fausto dominates conditions over the High Seas forecast waters roughly from 10N to 22N between 115W and 125W. Fresh to strong winds outside of the immediate circulation of Fausto extend to 22N, with seas to 8 ft reaching as far N of Fausto as 25N. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the waters between Baja California and Fausto, and also N of 15N W of 125W. Moderate or weaker winds with moderate to rough seas prevail. For the forecast, Hurricane Fausto will move to 17.5N 123.6W Thu morning, 17.9N 126.1W Thu afternoon, 18.2N 128.8W Fri morning, 18.4N 131.5W Fri afternoon, 18.7N 134.2W Sat morning, and 19.0N 136.6W Sat afternoon. Fausto will change little in intensity as it moves to near 19.7N 141.2W Sun afternoon. Please refer to the Special feature section for details on the next tropical cyclone forecast to develop well offshore of Mexico over the upcoming weekend. Strong cross-equatorial swell will begin to move into the area Wed night and slowly build Thu night through the weekend.