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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jun 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Amanda is centered near 12.7N 131.1W at 2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Seas to 4 m are found within 45 nm across the NW semicircle. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection continues within 90 nm across the NW semicircle of the center, as E to SE vertical wind shear persists. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is elsewhere within 210 nm across the east semicircle. Strengthening is not expected tonight as the wind shear is expected to continue, before conditions begin to become unfavorable after 24 hours. A west-northwest to west motion is expected through Sat before a weakening Amanda turns toward the southwest at a slower forward speed this weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Amanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 94W S of 13.5N, moving W near 10 kt. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 14.5N between 89W and 98W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11.5N72W to 10.5N83W to 09.5N93W to 1010 mb low pressure near 13N105W to 09.5N124W, then resumes SW of Tropical Storm Amanda near 09N132W and continues to beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 12N E of 89W, and from 05.5N to 15N between 124W and 140W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 16N between 89W and 107W, and from 05.5N to 11.5N between 107W and 122W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge, anchored by a 1033 mb high pressure center located near 35N144W, extends southeastward and into the Baja California waters to SE of the Revillagigedo Islands along 108W. This pattern is producing gentle to moderate NW winds across the Baja Norte waters north of Punta Eugenia, and moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds across the Baja Sur waters to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas across these waters are 5 to 7 ft in mixed NW and SW swell, except to 8 ft to the NW of Isla Guadalupe in new N-NW swell. Inside the Gulf of California, light winds prevail, with seas of 1 to 3 ft, except seas of 4 to 5 ft in SW swell near the entrance to the Gulf. Across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds dominate, with moderate seas to 6 ft, primarily in SW swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the waters beyond 60 nm of shore between Tehuantepec and Michoacan. For the forecast, high pressure well NW of the area extending a broad ridge into the Baja waters will weaken slightly through early next week as the high drifts to the W. This pattern will support gentle to moderate NW to N winds through Fri night, then diminish slightly through Sun. Rough seas in building NW swell, will propagate across the outer offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia late this afternoon through early next week. An area of low pressure has formed offshore of southwestern Mexico along the monsoon trough. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to develop during the next several days as it moves slowly north or north-northeastward near the coast of southern Mexico. Currently, this system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in 7 days. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak surface pressure pattern continues across the Gulf of America and western Caribbean today. This pattern is yielding light to gentle winds over the Central American offshore waters, with gentle to moderate gap winds extending offshore to beyond 90W from the Papagayo region. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in building SW swell prevail across the area waters, except 6 to 8 ft E through SW of the Galapagos Islands. Scattered thunderstorms remain active offshore of much of the area waters W of 80W. Gentle S to SW winds prevail over the waters S of the monsoon trough between the Galapagos Islands, Ecuador and Colombia, except higher near thunderstorms. For the forecast, SW swell will continue to propagate across the regional waters, maintaining moderate to rough seas through Sat morning, with highest seas around 8 ft expected between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Otherwise, monsoonal SW to W winds will increase south of the monsoon trough over the weekend, and an area of low pressure is forecast to form along the monsoon trough offshore of Central America and southern Mexico during that time. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next several days, while it moves slowly northward. Currently, this system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in 7 days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Amanda located well SW of Baja California Sur. High pressure dominates the waters N of 15N and W of 110W, extending southeastward to SE of the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and T.S. Amanda is promoting fresh to locally strong NE to E winds across most of the area N of 10N and W of 125W based on recent satellite scatterometer data. Seas over these waters are in the 7 to 10 ft range in a mix of trade wind waves and NW to N swell. Mainly gentle winds are S of the monsoon trough with seas of 6 to 7 ft W of 115W, and 7 to 9 ft between 90W and 115W. The high pressure will drift W and weaken slightly across the area waters Fri through the weekend as Tropical Storm Amanda tracks toward the NW then W over the western portion of the area, resulting in gradually diminishing winds across the trade wind zone. Little change is expected elsewhere through Sat morning, before large S to SW reaches the equator and moves through the regional waters E of 130W through early next week. Tropical Storm Amanda is forecast to move to 13N 132.1W as a 40 kt T.S. around midnight tonight, reach 12.9N 133.7W midnight Fri, reach 12.2N 134.7W midnight Sat as a T.D., then weaken further, reaching near 11.9N 135.2W Sun afternoon as a post- tropical remnant low.