Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jul 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Genevieve is centered near 22.3N 130.2W at 31/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are near 26 ft or 8.0 m. Scattered moderate convection within 90 nm in the NW semicircle, and 30 nm in the SE semicircle of the system. While thunderstorm activity has been weakening over the past few hours, thunderstorms may periodically redevelop over the next 12-18 hours as the storm moves over slightly warmer waters. Genevieve is expected to only slightly weakening through 24 hours accordingly, then resume a steady weakening trend thereafter as it continues to move on a west- northwest track through the weekend over cooler water. The system is forecast to become post- tropical late this weekend. Swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the Baja California Peninsula and Southern California. These swells will persist through this evening then subside. The swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions.Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?ripCurrents Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Genevieve NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 87W, N of 02N into the Nicaragua and Honduras, moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 115W/116W, from 02N to 18N, moving westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/Monsoon trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N90W. The ITCZ extends from 09N90W to 05N110W to 08N110W. A segment of the central Pacific ITCZ extends from southwest of Genevieve near 15N128W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 04N to 07N between 85W and 100W, and from 08N to 11N between 113W and 117W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong gap winds persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds are likely due to higher pressure over south-central Mexico and lower pressure farther south into the tropics. Seas are estimated to be 5-7 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The satellite data also showed moderate NW winds off Baja California, on the western edge of ridging farther west offshore. Gentle to moderate SE winds are noted across the Gulf of California with 1-3 ft seas. Light to gentle breezes and 3-5 ft combined seas in W swell are noted elsewhere off southern Mexico. For the forecast, lowering pressure over the Colorado River Valley will support fresh to strong SW winds and building seas over the northern Gulf of California Sat night into Sun morning. Elsewhere, high pressure will build off Baja California through early next week, supporting mostly gentle to moderate NW winds across the offshore waters of Mexico. Long-period NW swell will move into the waters off Baja California Norte Sun night through Tue then subside. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Several recent scatterometer satellite passes showed a long plume of moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo region reaching as far west as 90W. Seas are estimated to be 5-7 ft. Moderate gap wind are in the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to moderate winds are noted between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through Sun, with occasionally rough seas. Moderate to fresh winds will then pulse thereafter. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected across the remainder of the waters through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Genevieve. For waters not being impacted by Genevieve, high pressure is centered just northwest of the area. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and Genevieve is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds to the northwest of Genevieve. Seas in this region are in the 7 to 9 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail over the remainder of the discussion waters. For the forecast, the center of Tropical Storm Genevieve will move to 22.8N 132.3W Sat morning, 23.6N 135.2W Sat afternoon, 24.4N 138.0W Sun morning, 25.4N 140.6W Sun afternoon, then weaken to a remnant low west of area by late Sun. Away from Genevieve, little change in marine conditions is forecast through the weekend. Rough northerly swell off California is likely to push southward into the waters off Baja California Norte north of 27N and east of 130W by the end of the weekend into early next week. New large southerly swell may build south of the Equator and west of 100W beginning Tue night.