Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Oct 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Simon is centered near 15.7N 103.9W at 08/2100 UTC, moving west at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 992 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed from 14N to 18N between 99W and 105W. A turn to the northwest is expected by early Friday, followed by a northward motion Friday night. On the forecast track, the core of Simon is expected to approach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico on Saturday. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Simon is expected to become a hurricane tonight and a very dangerous category 4 hurricane before it reaches the coast of Mexico. Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 15 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum totals between 15 and 25 inches possible across portions of Michoacan, Colima and Jalisco through Sunday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Simon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Rachel is centered near 22.4N 124.6W at 08/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are near 24 ft. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of center. Rachel is moving toward the west-northwest. This general motion is expected to continue over the next 24 hours, before a sharp turn to the northeast, along with an increase in forward speed, occurs on Friday and Saturday. On the forecast track the center of Rachel is expected to approach the northern portion of Baja California late Saturday. Gradual weakening is expected over the couple of days, but Rachel is still expected to be at tropical storm strength when it approaches northern Baja California. Rachel will bring 1 to 3 inches of rain to portions of Baja California this weekend. Swells partly generated by Rachel will build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions as well as minor to moderate coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. Interests in extreme northern Baja California, northern Gulf of California, and southern California should monitor the progress of Rachel. Tropical Storm Watches could be required for a portion of this area tonight. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N82W to 09N90W to 12N95W, then resumes S of T.S. Rachel near 13N125W to beyond 11N140W. In addition to the convection associated with Rachel and Simon, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 00N to 08N E of 90W, from 03N to 14N between 94W and 100W, and from 00N to 11N W of 110W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Simon located about 200 nm S of Manzanillo, Mexico. Simon is almost a hurricane. Outside of the areas impacted by Tropical Storm Simon, a weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Simon will strengthen to a hurricane near 16.1N 104.4W Fri morning, move to 16.8N 104.9W Fri afternoon, 17.7N 105.0W Sat morning, 18.8N 104.9W Sat afternoon, inland to 19.9N 104.9W Sun morning, and move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 21.1N 104.8W Sun afternoon. Simon will weaken to a tropical depression while moving inland near 23.2N 105.0W Mon afternoon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds with moderate seas in SW swell are noted N of 03N while gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate to rough seas in SW swell prevail S of 03N. For the forecast, long-period southerly swell will produce moderate to rough seas between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through tonight. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast waters through the middle of next week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form as it moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Rachel located over the NE waters. Outside of the influence of Tropical Storm Rachel, high pressure located well N of area extends a ridge over the NW forecast waters supporting gentle to moderate NE to E winds and moderate seas. Higher winds of moderate to fresh speeds are noted N of 20N between 125W and 132W due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and Tropical Storm Rachel. Seas of 8 ft or greater, generated by Rachel, currently dominate the area from 17N to 28N between 119W and 131W. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Rachel will move to 22.6N 125.1W Fri morning, 23.0N 124.5W Fri afternoon, 24.0N 122.6W Sat morning, 26.2N 119.7W Sat afternoon, 30.2N 116.3W Sun morning, and inland to 33.3N 113.8W Sun afternoon. Rachel will dissipate Mon afternoon. A tightening pressure gradient between Rachel and a ridge over the NW forecast area will bring fresh to strong N winds and rough seas across the waters N of 25N between 128W and 135W by Fri night. These marine conditions will persist on Sat. Additionally, large SW swell will continue to affect roughly the waters S of the Equator and west of 105W over the next couple of days.