Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jun 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 96.5W extending from 01N to 15N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 11W between 90W and 104W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the SW Caribbean Sea to across Panama and Costa Rica, reaching from 10N86W to 10N116W to low pressure, Invest EP93, near 10N133W 1008 mb to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 14N E of 93W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 12N between 107W and 118W, and from 04N to 13N between 124W and 137W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends along the northern Gulf of California into Baja California Sur. The pressure gradient between the trough and surface ridging to the west is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the Baja Peninsula offshores along with moderate seas to 6 ft. In the Gulf of California, winds are gentle to moderate from the SSW and seas remain slight. A weak pressure gradient across the remainder discussion waters is supporting light to gentle winds with moderate seas to 6 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the waters of Baja California, pulsing to locally fresh speeds at night. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds are expected inside the Gulf of California and near the tip of Baja California Sur, reaching locally fresh speeds midweek. Light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Tehunatepec. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo along with moderate seas to 6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds are found between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador with moderate seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds are found elsewhere with slight to moderate seas. Otherwise, scattered hesavy showers and tstms are across the Costa Rica offshores as described with the monsoon trough above. Winds and seas may be higher in and near this area of deep convection. For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail across the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Sat night. Moderate winds will pulse to fresh in diurnal offshore flow in the immediate Gulf of Papagayo through tonight, then again possibly Fri night and Sat night. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in SW swell are forecast elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1008 mb low, Invest EP93, is centered well southwest of the Baja California Peninsula near 09N132W with nearby convection described above with the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh winds are within 240 nm northern semicircle and 120 nm SE quadrant of the low center. Moderate to rough seas to around 8 ft are also within that distance from the low center. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail, locally rough near the monsoon trough E of 106W. For the forecast, environmental conditions around the broad area of low pressure, Invest EP93, could support some slight development over the next day or so while it moves northward and then northwestward at 5 to 10 kt. Thereafter, increasingly dry mid-level air is expected to limit further development. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds, and moderate seas will prevail, except seas building to rough south of and near the Equator and east of 120W in new southerly swells midweek, lingering into the end of the week. Looking ahead, yet another set of southerly swell may build seas to rough over the same area during the upcoming weekend.