Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jul 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 84W north of 06N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this tropical wave. A tropical wave is analyzed along 124W from 02N to 16N, moving quickly westward at around 15-20 kt. Any nearby convection is described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N85W to 07N90W. The ITCZ extends from 07N90W to 09N120W, and from 08N125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 05N to 13N between 115W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from 1026 mb high pressure near 35N140W southeastward to off the coast of Baja California then to the Revillagigedo Islands. Recent scatterometer satellite data showed moderate to fresh NE winds off the coast of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro, between the ridge and troughs over northwest Mexico. Seas in this area are 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere with 4-6 ft seas primarily in SW swell. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active along the coast of southern Mexico between Puerto Angel and Manzanillo. For the forecast, the ridging will hold across the offshore waters of Baja California through Wed night, with the resultant gradient leading to moderate to fresh NW winds over these same waters, locally strong to the north of Punta Eugenia through Tue night. Moderate to fresh gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse at fresh to strong speeds at night into the mornings through the rest of the week and into the weekend, with seas to rough at times. Little change in winds is forecast elsewhere, except increasing and pulsing to fresh to strong in the central and northern Gulf of California by the end of the week as the gradient tightens there. Fresh NW swell off California will push southward off Baja California Norte late Tue night into early Wed, continuing through Fri. Moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed a plume of fresh NE to E gap winds persist across the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 90W, where seas are 5-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds are elsewhere to the N of 09N. Moderate SE winds are offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, where seas are 6-9 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle winds are across the remainder of the waters, along with 4-7 ft mainly in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE-E gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo region into early Thu, then moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Tue night. Little change in winds is forecast elsewhere through the week. Cross equatorial SW swell will move through the waters off Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through early Wed, with seas peaking around 9 ft. The combination of the southerly swell with shorter period seas associated with gap winds will allow combined seas to build to a peak of about 8 ft offshore of northern Central America Tue through Wed with mainly moderate seas otherwise. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A trough, the remnant of Douglas, is along 133W from 22N to 27N. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh NE winds within 60 nm west of this trough. Elsewhere, a broad ridge dominates the waters north of 15N, supporting moderate NE winds and 5-7 ft seas in a mix of N and SW swell. Fresh NE winds and seas to 8 ft are also noted farther south ahead of the tropical wave near 124W, specifically from 09N to 13N between 120W and 135W. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere. Long period SW swell to 8 ft is reaching 08N between 90W and 130W. Combined seas are 5-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the remnant trough of Douglas will continue drifting westward through the rest of the week. The ridge will build ESE through Wed night, with the gradient between it and the remnant Douglas trough leading to a solid area of fresh trades west of 120W along with seas of 7-8 ft. Large southerly swell with seas up to 9 ft will continue impacting the waters S of 06N through mid-week before gradually decaying. Large northerly swells off California will build seas to around 9 ft offshore Baja California Norte by mid-week, lingering through the end of the work week. Meanwhile, the tropical wave will continue moving westward with scattered moderate convection.