Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jul 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Elida is centered near 15.8N 118.3W at 16/2100 UTC, moving west at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are currently around 18 ft or 6.0 m. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of center. Similar convective activity is also noted from 13N to 16N between 120W and 122W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong is elsewhere from 11N to 14N between 114W and 122W. Elida is moving toward the west. A turn toward the west-northwest is expected tonight, followed by a northwestward motion beginning Friday and continuing through the weekend. Strengthening is forecast during the next couple of days, and Elida is expected to become a hurricane on Friday before reaching its peak intensity Friday night or Saturday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Elida NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 102W, north of 03N to across southern Mexico, moving westward at around 15 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the southern end of the wave axis from 04N to 08N between 95W and 102W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N95W to 12N110W, then resumes southwest of Elida from 13N122W to 1009 mb low pressure located near 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 06N E of 95W to the coast of Colombia, from 10N to 13N between 90W and 96W, and from 07N to 10N w of 137W. Scattered to numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to 08N between 95W and 102W, and from 05N to 10N between 102W and 108W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Elida, centered about 640 nautical miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas associated with the periphery of Tropical Storm Elida continue to impact Clarion Islands. Seas are 8 to 9 ft N of the island to about 20N, and 8 to 12 ft within 60 nm SW of the island. Marine conditions are gradually improving across the remainder of the Revillagigedo Islands. Meanwhile, fresh to strong northerly winds are blowing across the Tehuantepec region and downwind to 14N with seas of 6 to 8 ft. A ridge prevails elsewhere across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, while a meandering surface trough is analyzed over the Gulf of California. This pattern supports light to gentle winds and 3 to 5 ft seas across the Baja offshore waters away from Elida. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate SE to S winds are noted over parts of the central and northern Gulf while mainly light winds dominate the remainder of the Gulf. Seas are 1 to 3 ft. An upper-level low spinning over Baja California Sur continues to generate some cloudiness, with embedded showers, over parts of Baja California Sur and the southern Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Elida will move to 16.2N 119.6W Fri morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.1N 121.1W Fri afternoon, 18.3N 122.5W Sat morning, 19.7N 123.8W Sat afternoon, 21.3N 124.9W Sun morning, and weaken to a tropical storm near 23.0N 126.0W Sun afternoon. Elida will change little in intensity as it moves to near 26.1N 127.9W Mon afternoon. As Elida moves toward the NW, the ridge over Baja California will weaken leading to mainly light to gentle winds. However, seas generating by Elida will propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California Fri through Sun. Expect building seas of 8 to 10 ft, mainly across the outer forecast waters. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail. Fresh to strong northerly winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through at least Sat night into Sun morning, with locally rough seas at times. Looking ahead, the tropical wave with axis along 102W is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend into early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward well offshore of Mexico. Increasing winds and building seas will be possible again in and around the Revillagigedo Islands late in the weekend into early next week. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds continue across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 91W based on the most recent scatterometer pass. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted elsewhere from 09N to 13N, and near the Gulf of Fonseca. Seas are 5 to 8 ft downstream of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate N winds are in the Gulf of Panama, and near the Azuero Peninsula. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, dominate the remainder of the offshore waters, except slight seas in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and nearshore western Colombia. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas will persist across the Papagayo region through early next week, with moderate to fresh NE winds pulsing near the Gulf of Fonseca. Gentle to moderate N winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama with slight to moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected elsewhere, except in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and nearshore western Colombia where slight seas are forecast. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Elida, centered about 640 nautical miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. A ridge dominates most of the waters north of 18N and W of 120W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and Elida supports moderate to fresh N to NE winds from 15N to 25N W of 130W, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are 4 to 7 ft with these winds. Moderate to locally fresh SW winds are S of the monsoon trough and W of Elida to about 130W. Mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, as previously mentioned, Tropical Storm Elida will move to 16.2N 119.6W Fri morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.1N 121.1W Fri afternoon, 18.3N 122.5W Sat morning, 19.7N 123.8W Sat afternoon, 21.3N 124.9W Sun morning, and weaken to a tropical storm near 23.0N 126.0W Sun afternoon. Elida will change little in intensity as it moves to near 26.1N 127.9W Mon afternoon.