Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Nov 9 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Fresh N gap winds today will quickly increase to strong speeds this evening and reach gale force late tonight, as a strong cold front sweeps through the Gulf of America and high pressure builds north of the front. A large expanse of gale force winds are expected as far south and west as 12N98W by early Tue, and seas of 12 to 21 ft will occur near these winds. Gale force winds will prevail through Wed morning, with winds pulsing to strong to near-gale force through Fri morning. Large NW swell across the northwestern waters: Large NW swell, associated with a series of cold fronts moving through the northwestern waters, will support a wide expanse of rough seas through early this week over much of the eastern Pacific. Seas in excess of 8 ft will occur north of 20N and west of 130W by late tonight, and north of 12N and west of 120W by late Mon. Very rough seas of 12 to 15 ft are expected north of 25N and west of 133W through Mon. Rough seas will slowly diminish from north to south through midweek, with seas north of 20N falling below 8 ft by early Wed, and south of 20N by Thu. Looking ahead, a new NW swell will lead to rough to very rough seas over this same region Wed night through late week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78.5W to 07N81W t0 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 08N to 13N between 88W and 93W, and from 08N to 12N west of 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for additional information on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh N winds have developed in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, a 1014 mb low has been analyzed over northwestern Mexico near 27N109W and a surface trough extends northwestward through Sonora, and southeastward to 23N107W. Recent scatterometer satellite data show moderate NW winds are occurring in the central and southern Gulf of California. Moderate or weaker winds prevail over the rest of the Mexico offshore waters as weak ridging extends over the region. Recent altimeter data show residual NW swell is leading to rough seas of 8 to 9 ft offshore of Baja, south of Punta Eugenia, and offshore of southwestern Mexico. Seas of 4 to 7 ft prevail offshore of southern Mexico, with 1 to 3 ft seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh N gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec today will quickly increase to strong speeds this evening and reach gale force late tonight, as a strong cold front sweeps through the Gulf of America and high pressure builds north of the front. A large expanse of gale force winds are expected as far south and west as 12N98W by early Tue, and seas of 12 to 21 ft will occur near these winds. Gale force winds will prevail through Wed morning, with winds pulsing to strong to near-gale force through Fri morning. Elsewhere, rough seas offshore of Baja California and southwestern Mexico will slowly subside from northwest to southeast by tonight, though rough seas may persist near the Revillagigedo Islands through Mon. In the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh NW winds will pulse through Mon as troughing prevails over the region. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo as low pressure prevails over northwestern Colombia. Gentle to moderate NE to NW winds are occurring elsewhere north of the monsoon trough while moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds continue to the south, as noted on scatterometer data. Mixed NW and SW swell are supporting 4 to 6 ft seas over the regional waters, with 7 ft seas noted south of the Galapagos Islands and offshore of Ecuador. For the forecast, fresh NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through much of this week as a cold front sweeps through the Gulf of America and the Caribbean Sea and high pressure builds north of the front. Winds may reach strong speeds each night and morning by midweek. Fresh to locally strong N to NE winds will be possible in the Gulf of Fonseca and south of El Salvador Tue night into Wed. Offshore of Guatemala, expect fresh to locally strong NE winds and very rough seas Mon night through midweek as a significant gale force wind event occurs in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Rough seas will expand southeastward to well offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala early Tue into Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A series of cold fronts are noted over the northwest waters, stemming from a complex low pressure system centered offshore of British Columbia. The first cold front is decaying, and extends from 30N134W to 24.5N138.5W. The second cold front is currently entering the discussion waters. Recent scatterometer data show moderate SE to SW winds are occurring along the first cold front, with moderate N winds noted near the second front. A new NW swell is leading to rough seas north of 24N and west of 133W, with 12 to 15 ft seas north of 27N and west of 136W, as noted via recent altimeter and SOFAR buoy data. Ridging extends over much of the rest of the eastern Pacific. Mainly gentle to moderate winds are occurring north of the monsoon trough, with locally fresh NE winds noted in the trade wind region. Moderate to fresh SE to SW winds are occurring south of the monsoon trough. Residual NW swell is supporting rough seas of 8 to 9 ft east of 125W offshore of Baja California Sur, and over much of the waters south of 20N. For the forecast, large NW swell, associated with a series of cold fronts moving through the northwestern waters, will support a wide expanse of rough seas through early this week over much of the eastern Pacific. Seas in excess of 8 ft will occur north of 20N and west of 130W by late tonight, and north of 12N and west of 120W by late Mon. Very rough seas of 12 to 15 ft are expected north of 25N and west of 133W through Mon. Rough seas will slowly diminish from north to south through midweek, with seas north of 20N falling below 8 ft by early Wed, and south of 20N by Thu. Looking ahead, a new NW swell will lead to rough to very rough seas over this same region Wed night through late week. Looking ahead, strong E to NE winds and rough seas generated by a gale force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will spread large NE swell into the waters from 05N to 15N and east of 110W Mon night through Wed before diminishing.