Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Dec 12 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 08N127W. The ITCZ continues from 08N127W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 105W and 122W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong to near gale force gap winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with rough seas. Elsewhere, a surface ridge extends from high pressure N of the area to across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a trough over western Mexico is supporting moderate winds in the central and southern Gulf of California, as well as near Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in long period mixed swells are noted across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, with slight to moderate seas in the Gulf of California and nearshore SW Mexico. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds will prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri morning, weakening to moderate to fresh through Sat. Winds over the Tehuantepec region will strengthen again on Sat evening and night, possibly reaching gale-force Sun night and prevailing through early Tue. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere, locally fresh near Cabo Corrientes and in the Gulf of California through the end of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo, while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere N of 05N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail S of 05N. Seas are mainly moderate in mixed SW and NW swell. For the forecast, moderate N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama. Otherwise, gentle winds will prevail N of the monsoon trough over the next several days, except pulsing to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo, locally strong at times. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail S of monsoon trough. Moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell are expected over the regional waters through the weekend and into early next week. Seas may build offshore Guatemala by early next week due to a possible Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure dominates the waters N of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and monsoon trough is supporting moderate winds N of the ITCZ to around 20N and west of 110W. Moderate seas prevail over these waters. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere over the discussion waters, except north of 20N and west of 125W where NW swell is generating rough seas to 8 ft. For the forecast, seas with the long period NW swell over the N central waters will subsiding by Fri. The pressure gradient may tighten by the end of the weekend with trades just N of the monsoon trough and ITCZ freshening into early next week.