Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jul 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Genevieve is centered near 14.7N 111.2W at 27/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 929 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center. A west- northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. Genevieve is a Category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next day or so. Genevieve is then forecast to start weakening by the middle of this week. Swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and will likely reach southern portions of the Baja California Peninsula tonight or Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories of both systems at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 95W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 10N between 90W and 100W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N82W to 08N105W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N121W to 07N137W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present north of 03N and east of 85W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 09N and between 125W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Genevieve, currently located about 500 nm S of Baja California. Away form the impacts of Genevieve, gentle winds dominate most of the basin. Gap winds have diminished in the Gulf of Tehunatepec this evening. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are impacting waters N and W of Guadalupe Island due to high pressure building toward the region. Seas are moderate, except slight in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Hurricane Genevieve is near 14.7N 111.2W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 929 mb. Genevieve will move to 15.7N 112.6W Mon morning, 16.9N 114.2W Mon evening, 17.6N 115.7W Tue morning, 18.1N 117.1W Tue evening, 18.8N 118.7W Wed morning, and 19.6N 120.5W Wed evening. Genevieve will change little in intensity as it moves well west of Baja California late Thu. Elsewhere, fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Mon. Looking ahead, winds may freshen off Baja California Norte by the end of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information about convection in the region. High pressure north of the area is forcing fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through the period. Moderate to locally rough seas will accompany these winds. Pulsing moderate to fresh north winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama starting Wed. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in southwest swell are expected elsewhere, except in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and nearshore western Colombia where slight seas are forecast. The southwest swell will subside by midweek. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Major Hurricane Genevieve, currently located about 500 nm S of Baja California. Hurricane Fausto continues to move away from the tropical eastern Pacific. Fresh to strong mainly E winds are impacting waters from 18N to 25N W of 137W, along with very rough seas of up to 15 ft. Rough seas impact a broader area from 15N to 25N W of 133W. For the remainder of the basin not impacted by Fausto or Genevieve, 1026 mb high pressure centered near 30N133W dominates. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and moderate seas are occurring north of 20N and west of 120W. Moderate easterly winds and moderate seas are present from 08N to 20N and between 123W and 135W. Meanwhile, moderate SE-S winds and moderate to rough seas are evident south of 10N and between 95W and 125W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Hurricane Genevieve is near 14.7N 111.2W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 12 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 929 mb. Genevieve will move to 15.7N 112.6W Mon morning, 16.9N 114.2W Mon evening, 17.6N 115.7W Tue morning, 18.1N 117.1W Tue evening, 18.8N 118.7W Wed morning, and 19.6N 120.5W Wed evening. Genevieve will change little in intensity as it moves well west of Baja California late Thu. Hurricane Fausto will continue to weaken as it moves further away from the basin with seas diminishing below 8 ft Mon in the westernmost waters.