Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jun 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2040 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is entering the eastern Pacific, extending along 80W north of 05N through central Panama, moving west at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered moderate convection from 05N to 08N east of 86W. A tropical wave is along 92W, south of 16N, drifting west at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 03N to 06N between 88W and 93W. A tropical wave is along 101W, south of 15N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 05N to 14N and between 97W and 103W. A tropical wave is along 119W, south of 18N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 13N to 16N and between 117W and 120W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N95W to 12N110W to 07N130W. The ITCZ extends from 07N130W to beyond 06N140W. Convection is described in the Tropical Waves section above. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A moderate subtropical ridge prevails across the Mexican offshore waters north of 20N, compromised in part by a weak 1018 mb low pressure off southern California. An afternoon scatterometer satellite pass showed gentle to moderate breezes across the region, except for locally fresh winds off Cabo San Lucas and near Punta Eugenia along Baja California. Seas are 5-7 ft in NW swell off Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro, and 3-5 ft elsewhere, except for 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, high pressure over the eastern Pacific will maintain moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California through Sun night, and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere. Winds off Baja California will diminish starting Mon as the high pressure weakens ahead of a trough moving into the area from off southern California. This pattern will also support moderate to fresh southerly winds across the northern Gulf Mon night ahead of the trough. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The subtropical ridge centered well north of the area supports moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending downstream to 90W. A pulse of fresh gap winds was confirmed by a late morning scatterometer pass. Farther south, moderate southerly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of 02S. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are expected in the Papagayo region into early next week. Winds will freshen to strong speeds starting late Mon with seas building to 8 or 9 ft by late Tue. The gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will produce seas to 8 ft in the far offshore waters of Guatemala by midweek. Meanwhile, mainly moderate southerly winds and moderate seas will prevail across the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A moderate subtropical ridge extends across the waters north of 20N. A recent scatterometer pass indicated this pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds from 08N to 20N west of 125W, where concurrent an altimeter satellite pass showed 5-7 ft seas. Gentle to moderate breezes and 5-6 ft seas are noted elsewhere, except for 6-8 ft seas in SW swell near the equator between 100W and 125W. For the forecast, additional pulses of SW swell will continue to propagate across the forecast waters east of 125W generating moderate to locally rough seas. Otherwise, little changes are expected in winds and seas through early next week as a ridge remains in control of the weather pattern across the area. Looking ahead, most weather models are indicating broad low pressure may form along the monsoon trough between 90W and 100W possibly starting mid week, although there is a low chance of tropical cyclone development.