Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Jun 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 100W from near Acapulco, Mexico southward, and moving westward around 15 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 13N between 91W and 103W. Another tropical wave is near 124W from 19N southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 04N to 13N between 120W and 132W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough curves northwestward from near the Panama- Colombia border to 09N85W to 08N89W. An ITCZ continues west- northwestward from 08N89W to 06N99W, then from 07N102W to 11N123W, and from 09N126W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is flaring up south of the monsoon trough from 02N to 07N between 77W and 91W, and near the ITCZ from 05N to 16N between 106W and 120W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is found near the rest of the ITCZ from 01S to 06N west of 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from northwest of the Hawaiian Islands across 30N135W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This feature is supporting gentle to moderate with locally fresh NW to N winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft just west of Baja California. In the Gulf of California, fresh to locally strong SW to W winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are present in the northern Gulf, while gentle to moderate SE to SW winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. A 1015 mb high just south of Tampico, Mexico is enhancing moderate to fresh NE winds across the Bay of Campeche, causing fresh to strong N gap winds and 6 to 7 ft seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Mainly gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft dominate the rest of the central and southern Mexico offshore waters, except moderate E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in long-period S swell across the far southern offshore waters of the Oaxaca and chiapas States. For the forecast, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region from the nighttime to late morning hours each night and morning through Sat. Fresh to strong W to SW winds should pulse in the northern Gulf of California until before sunrise this morning, and again tonight through early Tue morning. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NW to N winds and moderate seas will persist west of Baja California through the end of the week. NW swell is going to create rough seas at the far northwestern waters off Baja California Norte today through Tue evening. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds with 6 to 8 ft seas persist across the Gulf of Papagayo and off the southern coast of Nicaragua. Altimeter satellite data earlier this morning indicate seas of 7 to 9 ft under these winds, and 6 to 8 ft farther downstream in the far southern offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Moderate to locally fresh N winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted in the Gulf of Panama. Gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail for the remainder central America and Colombia offshore waters. Gentle to moderate S winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in long-period S swell dominate waters near the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for convection in the region. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and moderate to rough seas will continue in the Gulf of Papagayo region through the weekend. NE to E swell generated by these winds are anticipated to create moderate to locally rough seas well downstream to near 90W. Farther south, long-period southerly swell should keep moderate to locally rough seas near the Galapagos Islands and off Ecuador until midweek. Sporadic heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will persist near the Colombia coast, spreading to south of Costa Rica and Panama by this evening. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge extending southeastward from northwest of the Hawaiian Islands across 30N135W to near the Revillagigedo Islands is supporting moderate to locally fresh N to ENE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas west of 118W and north of the ITCZ. East of 118W and north of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed moderate swells are evident. Light to gentle winds and seas at 6 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swells are noted near and south of the ITCZ to near 4N. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds with 6 to 9 ft seas in long-period S to SE swell prevail south of 4N. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Waves sections at the beginning for convection in the region. For the forecast, the tropical wave near 124W is forecast to undergo possible gradual development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form near midweek while the system moves generally west-northwestward and then northwestward. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development by late week as the system encounters increasing shear and cooler waters. Regardless of development, a gradual increase of winds and seas are expected along the northern portion of this wave this week. Outside of this system, little change are anticipated north of the ITCZ for the next several days. South of the ITCZ, a gradual decrease in both winds and seas will occur by Wed.