Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jan 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 12UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient will develop in the Tehuantepec region today as an arctic high pressure will build southward over eastern Mexico. North winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will reach strong to near-gale force this afternoon, then gale to strong-gale force tonight and Sat, possibly lasting until late Tue. Seas are expected to peak at 18 to 22 ft late on Sat. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07.5N78W to 03N98W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues 03N98W to 06N120W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N between 112W and 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec from Fri night/early Sat through early next week. See the Special Features section above for more details. The pressure gradient between surface ridging west of the Baja Peninsula and a surface trough over W Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh northwest winds in the Gulf of California. Seas are slight to moderate over these waters. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Rough seas in NW swell has moved into the waters NW of Guadalupe Island. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas. For the forecast, a strong cold front that will move across the Gulf of America will usher in another round of gale conditions in the Tehuantepec region beginning tonight. These winds may peak to strong gale force, with seas possibly reaching to around 18 ft late on Sat. These conditions will prevail through early next week. Moderate to fresh northwest winds will prevail across the Gulf of California before diminishing Sat night, reaching local strong speeds today. Large northwest swell over the waters west of Baja California Norte will slowly decay through Fri. Another set of northwest swell may move through the waters west of Baja California Norte late this weekend and early next week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong to near-gale NE winds, and rough seas, prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo region extending westward to near 89W. Fresh gap winds prevail over and downstream of the Gulf of Panama, with moderate seas. Over the remainder of forecast waters, gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will possibly increase to gale- force Sun night through Tue as Arctic high pressure building over the eastern United States helps tighten the pressure gradient. An upcoming gale force gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will produce rough to very rough seas over the Guatemala and El Salvador waters Sat night into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging prevails across the waters N of 20N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trades from north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of about 120W. Large northwest swell is moving through the northwest part of the area, mainly N of 07N and W of 120W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas in mixed swell, prevail. For the forecast, the area of high pressure over the discussion waters will weaken through tonight, enabling a cold front to approach the area. The weakening high pressure will loosen the pressure gradient and diminish winds slightly over the tradewind waters. The large northwest swell will gradually decay into Sat. The cold front will enter the NW waters Sat, and gradually dissipate over the NW waters through Sun. The front will usher in a set of large northwest swell, with rough to very rough seas impacting the waters N of 15N and W of 130W through Sun, then rough seas further spreading SE to cover the waters N of 05N and W of 120W by Mon before gradually subsiding.