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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Aug 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Karina is centered near 14.2N 116.3W at 29/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are around 31 ft (9.5 m). Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm SE and 90 nm NW semicircles of center. Karina is moving toward the northwest, and this general motion is expected to continue over the next day or so, followed by a more westward turn. Karina is forecast to become a hurricane by early Saturday and could become a major hurricane on Sunday. Swells generated by Karina will begin to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 12.5N 134.2W at 29/0300 UTC, moving west at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently around 15 ft (4.5 m). Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 180 nm SW semicircle. Lowell is moving toward the northwest. A turn toward the west is expected overnight, and a westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the weekend. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. However, strengthening is expected to begin on Saturday, and Lowell could become a hurricane by Sunday night or Monday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 98W from 05N to 15N, moving quickly westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 14N between 98W and 104W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N85W to 09N105W. In addition to the convection near Karina, Lowell and the tropical wave, numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is active from 04N to 10N between 80W and 90W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Karina. Fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas associated with the outer periphery of Karina are reaching the Revillagigedo Islands. Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate in this area, and Tropical Storm conditions are possible tonight and Sat. Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 14N. In the Gulf of California, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are observed N of 29N per earlier scatterometer data. Gentle winds and slight seas are occurring across the remainder of the Gulf. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will strengthen to a hurricane southwest of Clarion Island near 15.1N 117.5W Sat morning, and will bring strong winds and rough seas to the waters around the Revillagigedo Islands and southwest of Baja California Sur beyond 180 nm through late Sat. Karina will continue to move to the northwest and away from Mexican offshore waters through early next week. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sun with locally rough seas there at times, then pulsing to moderate to fresh thereafter. A surge of fresh to locally strong southeasterly winds will persist in the northern Gulf of California through Sun night. Looking ahead, another area of low pressure is forecast to form during the next day or two well to the south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while it moves west- northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 10N90W, with 6 to 8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the upcoming weekend into early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Associated moderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds may freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into early next week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the monsoon trough. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Tropical Storm Karina and Tropical Storm Lowell. The remnant low of Post-Tropical cyclone Iselle is near 25N132W with a central pressure of 1009 mb. Fresh to strong winds and moderate seas are occurring from 25N to 29N between 130W and 135W. Elsewhere, mainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the open waters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from the two tropical storms and Post-Tropical cyclone Iselle. Rough seas generated by Karina cover the waters from 05N to 20N between 105W and 125W. Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, Karina will strengthen to a hurricane near 15.1N 117.5W Sat morning, move to 16.2N 119.4W Sat evening, 17.0N 121.1W Sun morning, 17.3N 122.8W Sun evening, 17.5N 124.6W Mon morning, and 18.0N 126.0W Mon evening. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to 19.1N 129.2W late Tue. Tropical Storm Lowell will move to 12.6N 135.3W Sat morning, 12.7N 136.8W Sat evening, 12.8N 138.6W Sun morning, and 13.0N 140.5W Sun evening. Lowell will strengthen to a hurricane west of 140W Mon and continue to move westward.