Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue May 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 84W north of 04N into Costa Rica and Nicaragua, and is moving west at 5 kt. It is enhancing convection near the monsoon trough described in the section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N90W. The ITCZ extends from 09N90W to 05N120W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate is active along the coast of Costa Rica. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle NW breezes continue to cover most of the Mexican offshore waters this morning, as broad ridge extends over the region from a 1034 mb high pressure area centered near 38N140W through the Revillagigedo Islands. Light breezes are noted across the Gulf of California. Large 8-10 ft NW swell still is present off Baja California, but is subsiding. Combined seas are 4-6 ft elsewhere primarily in NW swell. For the forecast, NW swell to 9 ft will persist off Baja California and the Revillagigedo Islands will gradually subside through mid week. A ridge extending across the region along roughly 20N will support mostly gentle to moderate NW winds across the region with moderate seas elsewhere in NW swell. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh E gap winds with 5-7 ft seas persist across the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate breezes with 3-5 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along the coast of Costa Rica due to local overnight drainage flow and a tropical wave moving through the region. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo mainly in overnight and early morning hours through Thu morning. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds along with moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the end of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1034 mb high near 38N140W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This feature is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds north of the ITCZ west of 120W. Under long-period, large to moderate NW swell, seas in this area range from 7 to 11 ft, with the highest near 30N125W. For the waters north of the ITCZ east of 120W, gentle to moderate NE to E winds with 6 to 9 ft seas in mixed moderate swells exist. Gentle to moderate SE to E winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail south of the ITCZ. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will continue to gradually weaken while shifting westward through midweek. This will allow winds and seas north of the ITCZ to steadily subside from east to west through midweek, becoming gentle to moderate winds with 6 to 8 ft seas by Thu. Winds south of the ITCZ will also becoming gentle by Thu with seas staying at 5 to 7 ft in mixed swells.