Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jun 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1445 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Cristina is centered near 12.5N 88.8W at 10/1500 UTC, moving west at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 12-13 ft or 4.0 m. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 86W and 95W. Cristina should turn northwestward during the next 12 h as a low- to mid-level ridge builds to the northeast of the storm. This motion should bring the storm to the coast of Central America in around 24 h and inland thereafter. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Cristina will impact coastal portions of Central America through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Cristina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N94W to 07N110W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 103W and 109W, and from 05N to 10N between 125W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from a 1031 mb high centered near 36N144W SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. A surface trough is over the Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting gentle to moderate winds off Baja California, where seas are in the 7-8 ft range. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the discussion waters. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range off southern Mexico due to swell generated from TS Cristina. Elsewhere, seas are in the 6-7 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, a broad surface ridge extending into the waters of the Revillagigedo Islands will weaken and shift westward today through the upcoming weekend, as broad low pressure along the coast of southern California drifts westward. This will lead to light to gentle winds across the waters of Baja California, and moderate to locally fresh SW to S winds inside the Gulf of California. Afternoon and evening winds will pulse moderate to locally fresh near the coast Fri through the weekend. Northerly swell will merge with strong S swell moving through the Baja waters through today to maintain rough seas before subsiding. Gentle to locally moderate NW to W winds will dominate the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Tehunatepec through Fri, then weaken into the weekend. Large cross-equatorial S-SW swell dominating those waters will gradually subside through today, while mixed swells off Baja Norte to rough linger through Thu. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Cristina, just offshore of the Gulf of Fonseca. Active nearby convection is described above. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds surround Cristina from roughly N of 10N and E of 90W. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. Seas are 7-11 ft N of 05N, and mainly 6-8 ft S of 05N. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Cristina is near 12.5N 88.8W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving west at 3 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Cristina will move to 12.9N 89.3W this evening, inland to 13.8N 89.9W Thu morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 15.2N 90.5W Thu evening, and dissipate Fri morning. Otherwise, cross-equatorial S-SW swell will continue to impact the regional through today while gradually subsiding, resulting in large and powerful surf along the coasts. Refer to your local meteorological information for more details on the surf zone and beach impacts. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail across the offshore waters Thu into the weekend, except locally rough seas in new southerly swell near the Galapagos Islands Thu and Thu night. Winds may pulse to moderate to locally fresh in diurnal offshore flow in the immediate Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama during the upcoming weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The remnant low of Post-Tropical Cyclone Amanda is analyzed just W of 140W near 10N141W. High pressure prevails over the waters N of about 15N, anchored by a 1031 mb high centered near 36N144W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough, and remnants of Amanda is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. Seas over these waters are in the 6-8 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, are found S of 06N and E of 120W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, prevail. For the forecast, the high pressure ridging is forecast to weaken and retreat to the NW as broad troughing starts to dominate the waters N of 20N. This will loosen the pressure gradient, with the moderate to fresh winds diminishing later today through Thu. Winds will then be moderate or weaker across the entire open waters. For seas, northerly swells mixed with the longer period southerly swells with seas of 7-9 ft will linger across the N-central waters through the remainder of the week before decaying. Meanwhile, long-period southerly swell with rough seas over eastern portions will subside today into tonight. Seas may pulse to 8 ft S of 10N between 95W and 125W through the end of the week. Otherwise and afterwards moderate seas will dominate the open waters.