Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Oct 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 20.2N 113.2W at 04/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 968 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of center. Rachel is moving slowly toward the west-northwest, and A turn toward the west with some increase in forward speed is expected during the next 72 h. Rachel is forecast to start a gradual weakening trend in the next 12 hours or so. Swells generated by Rachel will continue to affect the coast of west- central Mexico through the weekend and the Baja California Peninsula through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 11N91W to 14N100W, then resumes near 13N118W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 86W and 90W, from 00N to 16N between 90W and 105W, and from 00N to 10N between 128W and 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Rachel, gentle moderate winds, and moderate to rough seas in mixed swell, prevail over the offshore waters of Mexico. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are in the Gulf of California. Seas of 8 ft or greater generated by Rachel are impacting the entrance to the Gulf of California, the offshore waters of Baja California Sur, and the offshore waters of southwestern Mexico west of 105W. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel is near 20.2N 113.2W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 968 mb. Rachel will move to 20.3N 114.0W this afternoon, 20.4N 115.3W Mon morning, 20.5N 116.8W Mon afternoon, 20.6N 118.4W Tue morning, 20.6N 120.0W Tue afternoon, and 20.9N 121.6W Wed morning. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.8N 124.6W early Thu. Seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, and mainly south of Punta Eugenia, through at least Mon night. Rough seas will persist over the southern Gulf of California, including the entrance to the Gulf through tonight. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region through tonight, then winds and seas may increase early this week as an area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern coast of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail across the region. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with mostly moderate seas through the forecast period. Winds and seas may increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador next week as an area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of Hurricane Rachel, a ridge dominates the northern forecast waters, mainly N of 20N and W of 120W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Rough seas associated with Rachel dominate the waters from 09N to 27N between 105W and 121W. Moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.3N 114.0W this afternoon, 20.4N 115.3W Mon morning, 20.5N 116.8W Mon afternoon, 20.6N 118.4W Tue morning, 20.6N 120.0W Tue afternoon, and 20.9N 121.6W Wed morning. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.8N 124.6W early Thu. Rough seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the forecast waters roughly from 10N to 27N between 105W and 123W the remainder of the weekend before starting to shift westward along with the system.