Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Nov 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing over the northwestern Caribbean extends southwestward across northern portions of Central America and into the tropical eastern Pacific. This feature will interact with enhanced low- level moisture and onshore flow south of the monsoon trough over the next several days. This will favor heavy precipitation developing across Central America starting today and lasting through at least Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected across Nicaragua and Costa Rica, with the bulk of precipitation occurring through Thursday. Heavy rainfall may lead to life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your local weather agency and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more details. Eastern East Pacific: A broad area of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms offshore of the coast of Central America. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the low drifts northward. Regardless of development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America through this weekend. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 05N115W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 13N between 77W and 98W, from 03S to 09N between 106W and 124W, from 07W to 11N between 126W and 134W, and from 08N to 20N between 137W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh NW winds are present in the offshore waters of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro due to high pressure building SE toward the region. Seas in these waters are 7 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, across the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds prevail, with moderate seas in mainly SW swell, mixed with NW swell west of 110W, and except for the Gulf of California, where slight seas dominate. For the forecast, high pressure west of Baja California will maintain a ridge across the region, supporting fresh NW winds across the Baja Norte waters through tonight. Large NW swell will impact the Baja waters into Thu night. The next pulse of large NW swell will reach the Baja waters beginning Fri. Fresh winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California and near Cabo Corrientes starting Fri afternoon and continue through the weekend. Looking ahead, fresh to strong northerly gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night, increasing Sun night as a cold front moves into the SW Gulf of America, with gales possible Mon night. A set of large and rough NW swell may approach Baja California Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... See Special Features section above for information on low pressure offshore Nicaragua that has potential for tropical development as well as heavy rainfall threat over portions of Central America. A broad zone of moderate to locally fresh S winds is noted ESE of this low, along with scattered moderate convection. Locally rough seas are possible there as well. The winds and convection extends southward to near the Galapagos Islands. Otherwise, winds are light to gentle, with moderate seas. For the forecast, the broad area of low pressure offshore Central America has the possibility of gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the low drifts northward. Regardless of development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America through this weekend. There is a medium chance of tropical formation over the next 48 hours. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The low pressure, Invest CP95, that is along the monsoon trough W of 140W has moved farther W away from the region and no further impacts are anticipated in the eastern Pacific in association with it. The pressure gradient between high pressure building in from the north and lower pressure along the monsoon trough is leading to widespread moderate to fresh NE to E winds across waters N of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, locally strong near 15N140W. Long period NW swell and wind-waves are combining to create rough seas over the same area. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail, with moderate seas For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades will prevail over the west-central waters, locally strong through the end of the week. Meanwhile, NW swell will continue spreading through the region through tonight, while reinforcing NW swell will start to arrive by early Thu, keeping seas rough. Additional NW swell will keep moving in through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Looking ahead, merging NW and SE swell id likely to produce 8 to 9 ft seas close to the equator by the end of the week into the weekend, possibly lingering into early next week.