Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Oct 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Vance is centered near 12.0N 102.5W at 24/0300 UTC, moving north-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Seas are peaking near 35 ft or 10.5 m. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 75 nm of the center, except 60 nm in the NW quadrant. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 510 nm in the NE quadrant, 360 nm in the S semicircle, and 270 nm in the NW quadrant. Vance is moving toward the north-northwest, and this motion is expected to continue through the weekend. Some additional strengthening is possible through tonight. However, gradual weakening is forecast to begin by Sat. Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure over Mexico and intensifying Hurricane Vance is supporting minimal gale force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Winds will continue to pulse tonight through likely Mon night with a tight pressure gradient remaining in place. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11.5N73W to SE of Vance at 09N95W. It resumes west of Vance at 08N105W to 06N113W. The ITCZ extends from 06N113W to 07N118W to 03N134W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01S to 08N between 80W and 91.5W, from 01N to 05N between 110W and 115W, and from 03N to 08.5N between 127W and 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Vance, and a Gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Vance, moderate to fresh winds are west of the Baja California peninsula extending southward to near the Revillagigedo Islands, with moderate seas. Similar winds are found in the central and southern portions of the Gulf of California nearshore mainland Mexico. Gentle to moderate winds are found across the remainder of the waters, with slight to moderate seas are over the Gulf of California, and moderate seas across the remainder of the waters away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, Vance will move to 12.8N 102.8W Sat morning, 13.8N 103.1W Sat evening, 14.8N 103.4W Sun morning, 15.8N 103.8W Sun evening, 16.3N 104.0W Mon morning, and 16.8N 104.2W Mon evening. Vance will change little in intensity as it moves to 17.6N 104.3W late Tue. Meanwhile, winds will continue to pulse to gale force tonight through likely Mon night over the Gulf of Tehuantepec with a tight pressure gradient remaining in place, then pulsing to fresh to strong through at least the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds offshore Baja California will linger tonight before diminishing. Rough seas in northerly swells offshore Baja California Norte will spread across those waters late tonight through Sat. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except mainly slight seas in the Gulf of California. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and moderate seas, are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate to rough seas are south of the Equator between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Gentle winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere across the discussion waters, except slight seas nearshore Colombia. For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo region. Rough seas in southerly swell and moderate to fresh winds will prevail offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through early Sat. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Vance. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas in northerly swells are from 10N to 20N and W of 123W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas away from Vance. For the forecast, Vance will move to 12.8N 102.8W Sat morning, 13.8N 103.1W Sat evening, 14.8N 103.4W Sun morning, 15.8N 103.8W Sun evening, 16.3N 104.0W Mon morning, and 16.8N 104.2W Mon evening. Vance will change little in intensity as it moves to 17.6N 104.3W late Tue. Meanwhile, locally fresh winds and rough seas over the W-central waters will diminish and subside through the remainder of this evening. Rough northerly swells will push S of 30N in the N-central waters by early Sat, subsiding Sat evening. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere. Swell generated from a frontal system just WNW of the discussion waters may bring rough seas to the SE of 30N140W late in the weekend into early next week. Looking ahead, a new set of southerly swell will push into the S-central waters by the middle of next week building seas to rough across the waters S of 06N between 105W and 130W by late Wed night.