Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jul 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0850 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 90W to the north of 04N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Convection is described below in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section. A tropical wave is analyzed along 112W, from 03N to 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Convection is described below in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section. A tropical wave is analyzed along 139W from 02N to 16N, moving westward at around 10-15 kt. Convection is described below in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 10N85W to 10N110W to 06N120W. The ITCZ is from 06N120W to 05N137W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is active 04N to 12N east of 110W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 06N to 08N between 120W and 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated NW winds are diminishing off Baja California. A concurrent altimeter satellite pass indicated seas were still up to 8 ft in the waters farther offshore, due to NW swell. Farther south, the scatterometer pass also confirmed strong to near-gale force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are estimated to be 6-8 ft. Gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas are evident elsewhere, except for 1-3 ft seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, ridging off Baja California is weakening as pressure lowers over the Colorado River Valley, allowing winds to diminish this morning, although NW swell to 8 ft will persist beyond 90 nm offshore through tonight. The pattern will also support fresh to strong S winds across the northern Gulf of California tonight through Fri night. Farther south, pulses of fresh to strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early next week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form late this weekend or early next week several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development thereafter, and there is a medium chance a tropical depression could form next week while the system moves generally west- northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, the lowering pressure may induce at least fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas offshore of Oaxaca and Chiapas by Sun night, and off Guerrero by Mon night. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh NE to E gap winds persist across the Papagayo region and Nicaragua, extending offshore to near 90W. Seas are estimated to be 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere to the N of 08N. Moderate SE winds are across the offshore waters of the Galapagos Islands, where seas are 5-7 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle winds are across the remainder of the waters, along with 4-6 ft mainly in SW swell. For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE-E gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo region through late Sun, mainly at night and into the morning hours. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form late this weekend or early next week several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development thereafter, and there is a medium chance a tropical depression could form next week while the system moves generally west- northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, the lowering pressure may induce at least fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas offshore El Salvador and Guatemala by Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A few thunderstorms are active along a surface trough, the remnant of Douglas, near 30N140W. Elsewhere, a broad ridge dominates the waters north of 15N, supporting moderate NE winds and 5-7 ft seas in a mix of N and SW swell. Fresh NE winds and seas 7-8 ft are also noted farther S near the tropical wave near 139W. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere. Long period SW swell to 8 ft is reaching 04N between 90W and 120W. Combined seas are mainly 5-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas will accompany the tropical wave near 137W at it moves westward at 10-15 kt, past 140W tonight. Farther north, swell of 8-9 ft will persist north of 25N to the east of 125W into Fri. Farther south, large swell to 7-8 ft will persist south of 05N or so between 95W and 120W through Fri. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure may become better organized this weekend into early next week over the tropical eastern Pacific west of 130W, although chances of tropical cyclone development remain low through the next seven days.