Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Feb 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08.5N78W to 08.5N84W to 03N91.5W. The ITCZ extends from 03N91.5W to 00.5N106W to 04.5N125W to beyond 06N140W. No significant convection is noted. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to near gale-force northerly winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas up to 8 ft due to a tight pressure gradient over the region between 1008 mb low pressure over Mexico near 19.5N98.5W and 1020 mb high pressure over the NW Gulf of America. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters with a ridge of high pressure reaching across the outer Baja California offshore waters to offshore SW Mexico, with moderate seas, except slight in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to near gale-force northerly gap winds and locally rough seas will pulse through Fri afternoon in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Strong gap winds may again be active across the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds will move from the southern Gulf of California Sat night to near Cabo Corrientes Sun with a locally tight pressure gradient. A cold front will move across Baja California Norte early next week with at least fresh winds with it. Rough NW swell will build offshore Baja California Norte by early Sat into early Sun, with a more significant set of NW swell associated with the cold front arriving early next week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE-E winds along with building seas to 8 ft are in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are in the the Gulf of Panama. Moderate or weaker winds and mainly 4 to 6 ft seas in a mix of swells are elsewhere. Active convection is near the coast of southern Colombia and Ecuador. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas will persist across the Gulf of Papagayo region into late Sat, then pulsing to moderate to fresh into early next week. Winds will increase back to fresh to strong by Tue night. Little change is expected with the winds in the Gulf of Panama through Fri, before diminishing slightly afterward. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Low pressure that was over the NW waters has dissipated during the past few hours with a remnant trough from 29N125W to 24N124W. A tight pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure to the northwest is supporting fresh to strong NE-E winds mainly north of 25N and west of the trough. Rough to very rough seas are north of 20N and west of 125W. Another trough is analyzed from 16N131W to 10N136W supporting moderate to fresh trades from 06N to 25N west of 128W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across these waters. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds in the NW waters will persist through Fri morning before diminishing slightly as the pressure gradient weakens. A cold front is forecast to push southeast of 30N140W Sat with fresh to strong winds behind it. The front will reach from 30N124W to 21N140W by Sun evening, then from near Baja California Norte to 20N124W Mon evening with fresh to strong winds behind it becoming confined to the waters north of 30N by early Tue. Rough to very rough seas over the northwest waters will gradually decay into Sat. An even larger set of NW swell with the cold front will arrive in the NW waters Sat night, spreading across the waters north of 07N and west of 115W by Tue night. Meanwhile, pulsing moderate to fresh trades in the west-central waters will persist into early next week, then increase to fresh to strong Tue as the pressure gradient there tightens. Locally rough seas with the trades will build as the trades increase Tue.