Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Feb 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Very Large NW Swell: Very large, medium period NW swell with seas of 12 ft or greater is north of 25N between 117W and 128W, while rough seas cover a large area ahead of it, across most of the waters north of 05N and west of 110W. A SOFAR buoy reported seas of 13 ft near 30N125W at 1500 UTC. These seas will gradually decay below 12 ft this afternoon. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Zone Forecasts at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 10N85W to 00N108W. The ITCZ extends from 00N108W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N-06N between 79W-86W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extends over N Gulf of California, Baja California Norte, and the Pacific waters just west of the Baja California peninsula. While no significant winds are associated with the front, very large, medium period NW swell with seas of 12 ft or greater is north of 25N between 117W and 128W, while rough seas cover all of the offshore waters west of 110W. Fresh NW winds are occurring just west of Baja California Sur. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 3-7 ft. For the forecast, ahead of a cold front, fresh to strong SW winds over the N Gulf of California will develop tonight before diminishing on Fri afternoon. The same cold front will also accelerate NW winds to fresh and locally strong along the Pacific waters west of the Baja California peninsula through Fri afternoon. High pressure building in behind the front will induce moderate to fresh NW winds across the entire Gulf of California Sat into Sun night. Looking ahead, a cold front pushing across the Gulf of America will induce a strong gale-force gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun into at least Mon night. Very large seas are likely to accompany this gap wind event, propagating well away from the source region. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE winds are occurring this morning over the Papagayo region with seas 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 2-5 ft. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N-06N between 79W-86W. For the forecast, high pressure over Central America is forcing fresh to strong NE to E gap winds over the Papagayo region through Fri. After a short break in the winds Fri night through Sat afternoon, fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue again from Sat night through at least Mon night. Looking ahead, a strong gale-force gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will induce fresh to strong N to NE winds and large to very large NW swell over the Guatemala and El Salvador waters beginning on Mon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on significant NW swell forecast for the northern waters. Surface ridging extends from a 1037 mb high centered at 37N151W to 30N135W to 22N120W to 13N100W. The pressure gradient from this high to lower pressure over the ITCZ is forcing fresh to strong trades from 09N-22N west of 120W. Seas are 8-13 ft over the area with these fresh to strong trades in mixed wind waves and N swell. Farther north, very large, medium period NW swell with seas of 12 ft or greater is north of 25N between 117W and 128W, while rough seas cover a large area ahead of it, across most of the waters north of 22N and west of 120W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 5-7 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 15N-25N west of 137W, due to a surface trough just west of our 140W border. An approaching extratropical cyclone to our northern border on Fri and Sat will weaken the pressure gradient over the tropics, reducing the trades down to moderate for the next few days. The high seas associated with these trades and large N swell will also steadily diminish by Sat. The very large NW swell along our N border will also fade will pushing equatorward, dropping below 8 ft by Sat afternoon. Looking ahead, the center of the extratropical cyclone will remain north of our waters, but the system will advect large to very large NW swell over our NW waters beginning on Mon.