Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Oct 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Simon is centered near 19.2N 108.1W at 15/1500 UTC, and is stationary. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are near 14 ft. Numerous moderate convection is from 18N to 20N between 107W and 109W. Simon is expected to move little through tonight, with a northwestward motion forecast to begin Fri and continue through the weekend. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days and Simon is forecast to become post-tropical this weekend and a remnant low by the start of next week. Interests in Baja California Sur should continue to closely monitor the latest updates as Simon is expected to pass west of that area this weekend. Large swells will affect portions of the coast of west- central Mexico and Baja California Sur over the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause large and powerful surf and life- threatening rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Simon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Hurricane Trudy is centered near 13.1N 101.6W at 15/1500 UTC, moving north-northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are estimated at around 26 ft. Numerous strong convection is within 60 nm of the center. A continued north-northwest motion is expected during the next day or so, followed by a turn to the northwest this week. On the forecast track, Trudy is expected to approach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico this weekend. A tropical storm watch has been issued for portions of Guerrero and Michoacan. Rapid intensification is forecast over the next or so, and Trudy is forecast to become a major hurricane by Fri. Through the weekend, Trudy is expected to produce 4 to 8 inches of rain with isolated higher totals around 12 inches across Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas along steep terrain. Elsewhere, Trudy’s outer bands are expected to produce 2 to 4 inches of rain with isolated higher totals around 6 inches along the southwest coast of Mexico between Guerrero and Michoacan. This rainfall may result in localized flash flooding through the weekend, especially in areas along steep terrain. Swells generated by Trudy will start to affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico over the next day or so, and continue into the weekend. Swells may impact southern Baja California later this weekend into early next week. These swells are likely to cause large and powerful surf and life- threatening rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Trudy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 12N94W, then resumes from near 10N103W to 03N117W. The ITCZ extends from 03N117W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 08N between 103W and 117W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Simon and Hurricane Trudy. Aside from conditions associated with Simon and Trudy, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds prevail across the waters west of Baja California and extend to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range in merging SW and NW swell. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds, and moderate seas are over the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds, and moderate seas, are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Simon will move to 19.1N 108.5W this afternoon, 19.6N 108.9W Fri morning, 20.5N 109.8W Fri afternoon, 21.3N 110.9W Sat morning, weaken to a tropical depression near 22.2N 112.0W Sat afternoon, and become a remnant low and move to 23.2N 113.0W Sun morning. Simon will change little in intensity as it moves to near 26.0N 114.5W early Mon. Hurricane Trudy will move to 13.4N 101.9W this afternoon, 14.2N 102.3W Fri morning, 15.1N 102.8W Fri afternoon, 16.1N 103.4W Sat morning, 17.4N 104.4W Sat afternoon, and 18.8N 105.5W Sun morning. Trudy will change little in intensity as it moves to near 20.5N 107.3W early Mon. Elsewhere rough seas in NW swell west of Baja California will diminish through early today. A Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected late this week through the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds behind a cold front moving across the waters N of the area. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds, and moderate seas, prevail over the waters N of 04N. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas in SW swell, prevail over the remainder of the offshore waters. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds, and moderate seas dominated by SW swell across much of the forecast waters through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. New SW swell will bring rough seas over the waters south and west of the Galapagos Islands Fri through Sat. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate N to NE winds and moderate to rough seas cover the waters N of 10N and west of 115W. Light to gentle winds and moderate to rough seas in merging NW and SW swell prevail S of 10N and W of 110W. Moderate winds and moderate to rough seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, large SW swell moving into the regional waters will raise seas to 8 ft and greater to S of 10N and west of 100W over the next couple of days.