Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Nov 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N73W to 09N89W to 07.5N92W. The ITCZ stretches from 07.5N92W to 04.5N108W to 09.5N121W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 00N E of 93W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 06N between 98W and 110W and south of 03N between 123W and 132W. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 15N and between 115W and 134W, and from 00N to 10.5N west of 136W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure remains centered west of the area along 138W, with a ridge extending east and then southeastward into the area waters near the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is supporting moderate northerly winds across the Baja Norte waters and gentle winds south of Punta Eugenia. Seas are 6-8 ft in NW swell across the Baja waters, except to 9 to 10 ft in new NW swell northwest of Isla Guadalupe. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds generally prevail across the far northern Gulf of California, with winds gentle elsewhere. Seas in the NW Gulf are 3 to 4 ft, and 3 ft or less elsewhere. Light to gentle winds prevail across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters from Cabo Corrientes to Puerto Angel. Recent satellite altimeter satellite data showed seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed NW and SW swell across this area. High pressure extending across the Gulf of America continues to force fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of to 8 ft ft across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and extending southward to 14N. For the forecast, fresh northerly winds and rough seas around 8 ft will pulse to strong at night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through The remainder of the week. Strong gap winds to near gale force are expected Tue night. Rough seas in NW swell will continue across the Baja offshore waters through Tue as new swell arrives tonight, then begin to diminish Tue night through Thu. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds and rough seas approaching 12 ft are expected to reach the offshore waters of Baja California on Fri, associated with a frontal system, with yet larger NW swell arriving Sat. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weakening 1010 mb low pressure, Invest EP96, is located near 10N91W, or about 240 nm south of Chiapas, Mexico. Scattered light showers are occurring within 75 nm across the northeastern semicircle of this system, and continue to diminish in coverage and intensity. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and seas to 8 ft prevail within 120 nm N of the center. Strong wind shear will continue to weaken this low, and it is expected to open up into a trough tonight. To the east of the low, fresh easterly gap winds extend from the Papagayo region to near the low, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Strong convection across the Central American waters and coasts of the past few days has ended. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4-6 ft in mixed SW and W swell. Clusters of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from the equator southward to 04S, and east of 93W and the Galapagos Islands to the coast of Ecuador. For the forecast, the low center, EP96, will move westward over the next few days, while weakening to a trough tonight. The threat of widespread heavy rainfall associated with that system appears to have ended. Meanwhile, fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds will funnel across the Papagayo region and extend to 90W through Wed night then weaken into the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse in the western Gulf of Panama through Wed morning. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds, and moderate seas in mixed SW to W swell, will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad subtropical ridge centered on a 1023 mb high near 30N138W dominates the eastern Pacific basin, and supports moderate to fresh easterly winds between 10N and 25N, and west of 120W. Seas N of 10N and W of 120W are 8 to 12 ft in NW swell. A broad surface trough from 10N132W to 16N119W is producing scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection from 08N to 15N and between 115W and 134W, where fresh winds prevail. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh SE winds and seas to 9 ft are occurring south of 03N between 100W and 120W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the surface ridge will amplify some, increasing the trades to fresh from 10N-25N west of 125W tonight into Wed. New large NW swell moving into the north and western waters today will reach from 10N140W to the Revillagigedo Islands by Tue night. The mixed swell over the equatorial waters will persist for the next several days. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will reach our NW border at 30N140W by midday Wed, bringing with it fresh to strong NW winds and very large seas in NW swell north of 20N through the end of the week. Even larger reinforcing NW swell may arrive Fri afternoon or evening to the NW waters, possibly in excess of 20 ft.