Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jul 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave previously analyzed along 96W is now being detected in the vicinity of 102W. This wave is gradually merging with the tropical wave just ahead of it, and is being analyzed on the 1200 UTC surface map as one large, merged, tropical wave along 106W. See the description below. A tropical wave is analyzed along 106W, south of 16N, moving west around 10 kt. The associated moisture field with this merged wave extends between 97W and 114W. Overnight satellite scatterometer data showed fresh easterly winds from 04N to 12N accompanying this wave. Associated convection is described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 08N79W to 09N86W to 06N106W. The ITCZ extends from 06N106W to 08N119W to 05.5N130W to beyond 09N140W. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 11N E of 91W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 12N between 98W and 117W, and from 02.5N to 10N between 117W and 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge extends from the NE Pacific across the Baja California waters to the Revillagigedo Islands, and is maintaining gentle to moderate NW to N winds, with 5-6 ft seas in merging NW and SW swell, per recent satellite altimeter data. Gentle breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere to Puerto Angel. Overnight satellite scatterometer data showed fresh N gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec extending southward to 14.5N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Low level convergent flow is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms across the near and offshore waters of Guerrero and extending well offshore to 13.5N. Gusty winds and locally rough seas accompany this activity. For the forecast, the ridge extending into the Baja California waters will continue to maintain gentle to moderate breezes through today, becoming moderate to occasionally fresh near the coast of Baja California starting this evening through Tue, as the high pressure strengthens modestly across the area. Fresh to strong gap winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning, and to a lesser extent tonight, then diminish. Looking ahead, SW swell to 7 ft is expected to reach the waters off southern Mexico early next week. Expect fresh southerly winds across the northern Gulf of California Tue and Wed. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Large clusters of strong thunderstorms are shifting slowly westward across the waters of Colombia, Panama and eastern Costa Rica this morning, and extend northward into the SW Caribbean. Overnight satellite scatterometer data showed fresh to locally strong E gap winds across the Papagayo region extending offshore to 89W, where seas are 5-7 ft. Mostly gentle to moderate SW to W winds are noted elsewhere S of 10N, with 4-6 ft seas in cross- equatorial SW swell. For the forecast, the scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to shift westward across the area waters off Panama and Costa Rica through early Sun before activity begin to shift northward into the Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse tonight and again Mon night across the Papagayo region into early next week, leading to occasional rough seas. Large cross-equatorial southerly swell to 8 ft will move into the waters off Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Sun through Tue. Farther north, the combination of the southerly swell with shorter period seas associated with gap winds will allow combined seas to 8 ft off northern Central America by Tue into Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1006 mb low pressure area, the remnant low of Douglas, is centered near 22N129W. Overnight satellite scatterometer data indicated fresh to strong winds were still occurring within 240 nm of the center of this low, mainly on the northern side between the low the subtropical ridge to the north of the area. Concurrent altimeter satellite data showed wave heights to 13 ft just to the east of the center, indicated maximum seas to 14 ft in the area of strongest winds to the north of the center. The presence of this low pressure is disrupting the subtropical ridge north of 20N. This pattern is supporting mostly gentle to moderate NE winds elsewhere west of 120W, with 5-8 ft seas in a mix of swell. East of 120W, a long plume of fresh E winds and 7-8 ft seas emerging from the Papagayo gap area is reaching as far west as 115W, from 06N to 12N. Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere east of 120W. Wave heights are 6-8 ft with SW swell. For the forecast, winds and seas near the remnants of Douglas will gradually diminish through Sun night as the remnant low weakens and opens into a trough. The ridge will drift southwestward and generally persist across the region through early next week, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds farther south into the tropics. Looking ahead, weak low pressure may form south of the Revillagigedo Islands by the early to middle part of the coming week. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system while it moves generally westward at 10-15 kt, although chances of development at this time are low.