Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Oct 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 20.5N 120.1W at 06/2100 UTC, moving west at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are near 35 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 18N-22N between 118W-122W. A westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days, with a sharp northeastward turn late this week. Gradual to steady weakening is forecast the next few days. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. South of Southern Mexico (Invest 92E): A broad area of low pressure located offshore of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Currently, peak winds are only near 20 kt and largest seas 7 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 07N-17N between 97W-105W. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so while the system moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is expected across portions of southern and southwestern Mexico over the next few days. Interests along the coast of southwestern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. The disturbance has a high chance of formation in the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has an axis near 89W extending southward from Central America to 06N, moving westward at 10 kt. Isolated moderate conveciton is occurring from 05N-12N between 85W-94W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from coastal Panama near 09N78W to a 1007 mb low near 13N99W. The monsoon trough restarts near 13N115W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 07N-17N between 97W-105W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N-03N between 103W-110W. Isolated moderate conveciton is occurring from 05N-12N between 85W-94W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel located west-southwest of Baja California, Mexico, and Invest 92E offshore of southern Mexico. Outside of the impacts directly associated with Hurricane Rachel, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 4-7 ft over the Pacific offshore zones and 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 07N-17N between 97W-105W. For the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.7N 121.0W Wed morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.2N 122.1W Wed afternoon, 21.8N 123.3W Thu morning, 22.3N 124.5W Thu afternoon, 22.6N 125.2W Fri morning, and 22.9N 125.0W Fri afternoon. Rachel will become post-tropical as it moves to 24.9N 121.7W Sat afternoon. A weakening Rachel should reach the offshore zones west of Baja California Norte Sat evening as it turns back toward the northeast. A broad area of low pressure (Invest EP92) located offshore of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so, while the system moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward. The disturbance has a high chance of formation in the next 48 hours. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient is causing only moderate and weaker winds across forecast waters with seas 4-6 ft. For the forecast, quiescent winds and seas should continue over the Central American and Equatorial Zones for the next few days. However, looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter, while it moves generally west-northwestward around 10 kt. Tropical cyclone formation chance is near zero through 48 hours and is low through 7 days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel located west-southwest offshore of Baja California, Mexico. Outside of the area affected by Hurricane Rachel, a weak pressure gradient is forcing only moderate and weaker winds across forecast waters. Large long-period SW swell is moving across the southern border between 100W-120W. Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, Rachel will move to 20.7N 121.0W Wed morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.2N 122.1W Wed afternoon, 21.8N 123.3W Thu morning, 22.3N 124.5W Thu afternoon, 22.6N 125.2W Fri morning, and 22.9N 125.0W Fri afternoon. Rachel will become post-tropical as it moves to 24.9N 121.7W Sat afternoon. A weakening Rachel should reach the offshore zones west of Baja California Norte Sat evening as it turns back toward the northeast. A broad area of low pressure (Invest EP92) located offshore of southern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form within the next day or so, while the system moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward. The disturbance has a high chance of formation in the next 48 hours.