Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Apr 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N85W to 03.5N98W to 04.5N104W to 03.5N120W. The ITCZ extends from 03.5N123W to 05N134W to beyond 04.5N140W. Southern hemispheric ITCZ extends from 02S113W to to beyond 02.5S120W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 06.5N between 85W and 101W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of 02N between 86W and 98W, and from 02.5N to 10N between 111W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure continues to build gradually southward across the Baja California waters tonight, as a weak cold front has dissipated across central Baja and the central Gulf of California this past afternoon. This current pressure pattern is producing moderate to fresh NW to N winds across the Baja waters becoming moderate N to NE winds from 21N southward across the Revillagigedo islands. Seas across these offshore waters are 6 to 7 ft in NW swell, except to 8 ft near Punta Eugenia and across Bahia de Sebastian Vizcaino, where fresh winds have prevailed since this afternoon. Moderate to locally fresh N-NW prevail across the Gulf of California, and extend southward to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across these waters. However, wind have become light and variable across northern portions of the Gulf since this evening. Gentle to moderate NW to W winds prevail across the remaining waters between Cabo Corrientes and Puerto Angel, where seas are 4 to 5 ft in SW swell. Fresh N gap winds are across the waters inside the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds will prevail across the waters on both sides of the Baja California Peninsula tonight as high pressure builds in from the North Pacific. This ridging will then dominate the waters through the week and maintain generally moderate winds. New NW swell will propagate into Baja waters late Thu and produce rough seas across the outer waters of Baja Norte into early Sat. Between Baja Sur and Puerto Angel, winds will be moderate or weaker with moderate seas through Fri. Fresh northerly gap winds are expected across the Tehuantepec through this morning before winds there become variable throughout the remainder of the week. Looking ahead, high pressure will weaken across the region Sat leading to diminishing winds and seas through the weekend. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Overnight satellite scatterometer data showed fresh to strong NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region, extending northward across the waters of northern Nicaragua, and downwind to near 90W. These winds were producing seas 6 to 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas to 6 ft prevail in the Gulf of Panama and extend beyond the Azuero Peninsula to near 04.5N. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in S-SW swell dominate the remainder of the offshore forecast waters. Scattered moderate to strong convection remains active S of 06N, to the N and NE of the Galapagos Islands. Isolated showers dot the near and offshore waters of Costa Rica and are widely scattered between SW Colombia and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, broad high pressure will continue N of the area into Wed night before gradually weakening through the end of the week. This will maintain fresh gap winds pulsing to strong during the nighttime and early morning hours across the Papagayo region to near 90W through Wed night, then yield moderate winds pulsing to fresh each night into the weekend. In the Gulf of Panama, moderate northerly winds will pulse to fresh tonight and Wed night, then will diminish slightly through the rest of the week. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Active convection occurring N of the Galapagos tonight will gradually shift westward and out of the area through Fri night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1026 mb high pressure is centered N of the area near 34N132W and extends a ridge southward across the region W of 108W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh trade winds south of 16N between 100W and 110W, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds south of 25N and west of 110W. Seas are generally 5 to 8 ft in mixed swell across the area, except less than 5 ft across the far NW waters near the high pressure center. Scattered to locally numerous convection has become more active along and N of the ITCZ and trough between 88W and 100W, and between 120W and 130W, and is producing areas of strong and gusty winds, and potentially higher seas. High pressure just N of the area will shift southeastward to near 33N through Wed, and strengthen the pressure gradient modestly across the local area tonight through Thu. Cross- equatorial swell will raise seas along the equator and E of 120W to 7 to 8 ft through Wed evening. Moderate to fresh winds are expected in the trade wind zone through Fri. The high pressure will weaken just N of the area on Sat to produce diminishing winds and seas through Sun, before a new cold front enters the NW waters late Sun.