Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Feb 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough is analyzed from a 1008 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 07S90W to 02S100W. The ITCZ is south of the Equator and runs from 02S100W to beyond 05S120W. No significant convection is associated with these features. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting gentle to to locally moderate NW winds with moderate seas. Winds are mainly light are elsewhere, including the Gulf of California and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are 3 to 5 in the offshore waters and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the forecast waters offshore of Baja California through the weekend. Winds will increase to fresh speeds N of Cabo San Lazaro starting Sun night as high pressure builds toward the region and the pressure gradient tightens. Fresh to strong gap winds are expected to pulsing nightly in the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting late tonight. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE winds are blowing across the Papagayo region with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to fresh gap winds have also developed in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, winds are mainly light with slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected in the Papagayo area through Wed night as high pressure strengthens N of area. Seas are forecast to build up to 8 ft within these winds. Moderate to fresh N winds and moderate seas are forecast in the Gulf of Panama at night through Wed night as N winds from the Caribbean funnel into the Gulf of Panama. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A stationary front is over the NW corner of the forecast region and extends from 30N133W to 21N140W. Seas of 8 to 9 ft follow the front. A 1021 mb high pressure is centered near 30N129W. The associated ridge covers the forecast waters N of 15N W of 115W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are present along the southern periphery of the ridge with moderate seas. Rough seas are still noted from 04N to 10N between 112W and 126W. For the forecast, the front will remain nearly stationary over the NW waters into tonight and gradually dissipate on Sat. Seas following the front will subside to less than 8 ft late on Sat. At the same time, the above mentioned areas of swell will continue to subside over the next 24 hours. High pressure will build eastward in the wake of the front into early next week.