Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Oct 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0140 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Vance is centered near 10.5N 101.9W at 23/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Seas are peaking near 25 ft or 7.5 m. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 105 nm of the center, except 60 nm SW quadrant. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 450 nm E semicircle, 240 nm SW quadrant, and 180 nm NW quadrant. Vance is moving toward the northwest. A gradual turn toward the north- northwest is expected over the next day or so. Maximum sustained winds have increased. Rapid intensification is forecast during the next 24 h, and Vance is forecast to become a major hurricane by early Sat. Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure over Mexico and TS Vance is supporting minimal gale force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Winds will pulse to gale force tonight and Fri night across the Tehuantepec region as Vance further intensifies. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N75W to 07N87W to 10N95W. The ITCZ extends from SW of Vance at 05N111W to 03.5N117W to 05N140W. Other than the convection associated with Vance above, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 82W and 85W, and from 00N to 06N between 122W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Vance and a Gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and T.S. Vance, fresh to locally strong SW winds are in the northern Gulf of California due to a locally tight pressure gradient. Moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds are offshore Baja California from Punta Eugenia southward and to the W of 110W. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. Seas are slight in the Gulf of California, except to moderate in the northern Gulf. Seas are moderate elsewhere away from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and seas associated with Vance. For the forecast, Vance will strengthen to a hurricane near 10.9N 102.2W Fri morning, move to 11.7N 102.8W Fri evening, 12.5N 103.1W Sat morning, 13.6N 103.5W Sat evening, 14.7N 103.8W Sun morning, and 15.7N 104.1W Sun evening. Vance will change little in intensity as it moves to 16.7N 104.4W late Mon. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to gale force tonight and Fri night across the Tehuantepec region as Vance further intensifies with a tight pressure gradient over the region. Fresh to locally strong winds in the northern Gulf of California will diminish later tonight. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds offshore Baja California Sur will pulse and expand to across the Baja California waters through Fri night before diminishing. Rough seas in northerly swells offshore Baja California Norte will spread across those waters Fri night through Sat. Moderate seas will prevail elsewhere away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except slight in the Gulf of California. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere across the discussion waters, locally rough offshore southern Ecuador. For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo region. Seas will build to rough in southerly swell offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands Fri through early Sat as winds freshen there. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on T.S. Vance. Elsewhere, a weakening stationary front extends from Baja California just S of Punta Eugenia to 15N128W. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds 7-9 ft seas in northerly swells follow the front. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with moderate seas away from Vance. For the forecast, Vance will strengthen to a hurricane near 10.9N 102.2W Fri morning, move to 11.7N 102.8W Fri evening, 12.5N 103.1W Sat morning, 13.6N 103.5W Sat evening, 14.7N 103.8W Sun morning, and 15.7N 104.1W Sun evening. Vance will change little in intensity as it moves to 16.7N 104.4W late Mon. The stationary front will dissipate later tonight, with associated winds and seas decreasing and subsiding as they spread southward over the waters north of 10N and west of 120W. Rough northerly swells will push S of 30N in the N-central waters Sat. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere. Looking ahead, a frontal system just WNW of the discussion waters may send rough seas to the SE of 30N140W late in the weekend into early next week. Combined seas may build to rough over the S-central waters early next week.