Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Nov 17 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0305 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to a 1011 mb low pres near 09N102W to 09N122W. The ITCZ stretches from 09N122W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 06N to 12N and east of 107W. Similar convection is found from 07N to 11N and between 127W and 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Satellite imagery depict a weak 1014 mb low pressure SW of Guadalupe Islands and a cold front that extends to the north- central eastern Pacific waters. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that supports moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds in the northern and southern portions of the Gulf of California, extending to the waters off Cabo Corrientes and off Baja California Sur. Slight to moderate seas are found in the Gulf of California and off Cabo Corrientes, while seas of 6-8 ft are noted off Baja California Sur. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are evident across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, the above mentioned cold front will move across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California tonight and Mon with little change in winds and seas while dissipating. Another cold front will reach the same area Mon night into Tue followed by fresh NW winds and rough seas in long period NW swell. Winds are forecast to increase again to fresh to strong speeds across the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front Mon night into Tue, with seas building to 5 or 6 ft. The cold front will move SE reaching Punta Eugenia by Tue night while gradually weakening. The front is forecast to dissipate between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro by Wed. Rough seas in the wake of the front will propagate across the outer offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through midweek. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient persists across the offshore waters of Central America and Colombia, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring in the nearshore and offshore waters from Costa Rica to Colombia and also off El Salvador. For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern across the region as a weak pressure gradient prevails. This will support moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas through at least midweek. In the Gulf of Papagayo, mainly gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak cold front extends from a 1014 mb low pres centered SW of Guadalupe Island to 23N133W. A few light showers are noted near this boundary. A 1021 mb high pressure system located near 31N145W extends a weak ridge into our waters, resulting in moderate to locally fresh easterly winds from the ITCZ to 20N and west of 115W. In the eastern waters, a weak low pressure along the monsoon trough is sustaining moderate to locally fresh winds and seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present. For the forecast, a new cold front will reach the NW waters tonight followed by fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas in additional pulses of long period NW swell. This swell event will propagate across much of the waters N of 25N by Mon night, and N of 23N and E of 130W by Tue night. High pressure in the wake of the front will support moderate to fresh winds in the trade wind zone toward midweek. At that time, the high pressure center is forecast to be located over the NW corner of the forecast area. Looking ahead, another cold front is expected to reach the NW waters Wed night into Thu.