Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Apr 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia at 07N78W to 06N95W to 4.5N105W to 05N110W to 06N115W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N125W to 06N132W to beyond the area at 06N140W. A southern hemispheric ITCZ extends from 03S86W to 02S100W to 02S112W to 03S120W to 02S130W to 03S140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within north of the trough between 108W-113W and within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 115W-119W. Scattered moderate convection is within is within 120 nm north of the ITCZ between 124.5W-132W, also within 60 nm south of the trough between 95W-99W, and within 60 nm of the trough between 103W-109W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge extends from 30N130W to 23N123W and to 20N114W. The associated gradient is allowing for northwest winds at mostly moderate speeds to exist over the offshore waters of Baja California and for moderate to fresh northwest winds to be over the offshore waters of Cabo San Lucas. Elsewhere, winds are generally northwest to north at moderate speeds. Overnight satellite altimeter data indicates seas of 4 to 6 ft in northwest swell offshore the Baja California peninsula and of the state of Jalisco. Slightly high seas of 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell have recently entered the far northeast part of the discussion area. Seas are 5 to 6 ft in long-period south to southwest swell are elsewhere offshore Mexico per latest altimeter satellite data. In the Gulf of California, seas are 2 to 3 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 3 to 4 ft in the southern part and for higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in south to southwest swell at the entrance to the Gulf. For the forecast, rather quiet conditions will remain over the Mexican offshores through the weekend. Developing low pressure over the southwestern United States will bring fresh southwest winds to the northern Gulf of California tonight before diminishing on Fri. Elsewhere, large northwest swell will impact the Pacific waters west of Baja California Norte tonight through Fri night. Looking ahead, high pressure building over the Gulf of America is expected to induce a fresh to strong Tehuantepec gap wind event Sun night and Mon. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region per recent scatterometer satellite data. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in this region. Elsewhere, winds across the regional waters are mostly at gentle speeds along with seas of 4 to 7 ft in long-period south to southwest swell. Satellite imagery shows clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the waters from 07S to 01N between 86W and 92W, including the waters near the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, winds are expected to pulse to fresh speeds late at night and into the mornings beginning next week. Convection occurring near the Galapagos Islands should last into Sat. Elsewhere, expect for rather tranquil conditions to remain over the Central American and the equatorial waters beginning tonight and into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1028 mb is analyzed north of the area at 33N137W, with a ridge extending to 30N130W to 23N123W and to 20N114W. High pressure covers the area north of about 16N and west of 115W. A pretty weak pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated to the ITCZ is allowing for generally moderate to locally fresh northeast trades over forecast waters. Seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft in north swell merging with southeast swell. Aside from convection that is associated with the trough and ITCZ, no other convection areas are observed. For the forecast, little change is expected in the winds during the next several days. Large long-period northwest swell is expected to impact the waters north of 27N and east of 125W starting Thu night and through Fri night. Otherwise, little change in the seas are also expected through the weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front may reach the far northwest forecast waters on Sun. This front should translate eastward while gradually weakening as indicated by the global models. A set of large northwest to north swell will follow the front.