Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Feb 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Large NW Swell: New large and significant swell with seas of 12 ft or greater is just N of 29N and propagating southward, while rough seas cover a large area ahead of it, across the waters N fo 08N and W of 114W. Seas of 12 ft or greater will cover the waters from 26N to 30N between Baja California and 140W by tonight while peaking around 15 ft near 30N between 120W and 130W, then gradually decaying back below 12 ft by Thu evening. Looking ahead, another significant and large NW swell event is possible in the NW waters late in the upcoming weekend into early next week. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 08.5N79W to 09N88W. The ITCZ extends from 04N88.5W to 01S120W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 82W and 103W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure centered NW of the area extends a ridge from NW to SE across the offshore waters. A locally tight pressure gradient between the ridging and troughing near SW Mexico supports moderate to fresh NW-N winds across nearshore Baja California. While fresh to near-gale SW winds prevail over the northern Gulf of California. Seas are 6 to 10 ft within these winds, except for 3 to 6 ft over the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds prevail with seas 2 to 5 ft. For the forecast, high pressure will continue build in across the area waters through Fri, producing fresh to locally strong northerly winds nearshore Baja California through Thu night. Strong to near-gale force SW wind over the northern Gulf of California will through late tonight. Fresh winds will dominate the central and southern Gulf of California Sat through Sun night due to a locally tight pressure gradient. NW swell will continue to build across the waters of Baja California today, then become reinforced tonight through the end of the week, decaying during the upcoming weekend. Looking ahead, long range model guidance indicates the potential for at least a strong gale-force northerly gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late in the upcoming weekend into early next week, although uncertainty exists being so far out in time. Please stay tuned as we get closer to this next potential event. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE to E offshore winds prevail across the Papagayo region, along with 4 to 7 ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are occurring across the Gulf of Panama and veer NE and pass south of the Azuero Peninsula, along with 3 to 5 ft seas. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere, with seas 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and moderate seas will pulse across the Papagayo region as high pressure builds across Central America from the north, continuing through Thu night, then become moderate to fresh thereafter. Fresh to strong winds may return there late in the weekend into early next week. Moderate N to NE winds will pulse to locally fresh from the Gulf of Panama to south of the Azuero Peninsula through today. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will change little through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on significant NW swell forecast for the northern waters, and for another possible event late in the upcoming weekend and into early next week. A cold front is analyzed N of the area. Fresh to locally strong associated westerly winds are pushing ahead of the front along with very rough swells enclosing on 28.5N. A ridge extends across the waters from near 30N137W to offshore SW Mexico. Deep layered troughing prevails near 135W and the W-central waters with scattered moderate convection from 10.5N to 25.5N between 132W and 140W. Associated fresh to near gale-force winds cover the waters roughly from 12.5N to 24N between 122W and 140W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. For seas, rough seas cover the waters from 08N to 30N between 114W and 140W. Very rough seas are from 11N to 23N between 131W and 140W near the troughing. For the forecast, high pressure will build across the waters N of the ITCZ while the deep layered troughing persists in the W-central waters near 140W. This scenario will support a broad area of fresh to near gale-force trades N of the ITCZ to near 24N and W of 130W through early Fri, along with rough to very rough seas. Expect active showers and thunderstorms to accompany these increasing trades. Marine conditions should improve by the end of the week and into the weekend as the disturbance dissipates and the pressure gradient weakens. New, large and significant swells may move into the NW waters by the end of the weekend and into early next week.