Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Sep 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Rachel is centered near 16.0N 105.7W at 29/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. The center is partially exposed under northerly shear, shifting numerous moderate to scattered strong convection to 480 nm in the SW semicircle. Seas near the center are as high as 23 ft (7 m). Rachel is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals of 12 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Guerrero, Michoacán, Colima and Jalisco. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Rachel, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?rainqpf Swells generated by Rachel will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Newly downgraded Tropical Storm Polo is inland over centered near 28.9N 109.8W at 29/2100 UTC, moving northeast at 17 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 991 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Polo will continue to move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 32.6N 105.7W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed afternoon. Seas over adjacent waters of the Gulf of California are 16 ft (nearly 5 m), but subsiding quickly as winds diminish. Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches across southern and central portions of Sonora with isolated maximum totals of 8 inches. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf Swells generated by Polo will continue to affect portions of the coast of the Baja California peninsula and northwestern Mexico during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is centered near 14.2N 130.8W at 29/2100 UTC, moving east at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 90 nm to 120 in the northern quadrant, and this has diminished from a few hours ago. Nineteen-E will continue to move eastward and gradually diminish through the next two to three days. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Polo, Rachel and Nineteen-E. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 12N93W, and from 12N110W to 11N115W to 15N125W, and from 14N135W to beyond 13N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 13N between 100W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on T.S. Polo and on T.S. Rachel. These systems will impact a large majority of the forecast waters. Elsewhere, fresh northwest to north winds are offshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters and Gulf of California. Rough seas are offshore Baja California, with moderate seas elsewhere, except slight in the northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, Rachel will strengthen to a hurricane near 17.3N 107.0W Wed morning, move to 18.2N 108.0W Wed afternoon, and 19.0N 108.9W Thu morning, and 19.4N 109.5W Thu afternoon. Rachel will continue to move to the northeast of Clarion Island reaching 19.6N 110.3W Fri morning, and 19.8N 111.1W Fri afternoon. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to 20.2N 112.9W by Sat afternoon. Farther north, the center of newly downgraded Tropical Storm Polo is inland over northwest Mexico near 29.0N 109.7W, moving to the northeast at 18 kt. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... NW swell from Rachel is reaching the waters off Guatemala where seas are 7 ft. Gentle breezes and slight seas persist off the remainder of Central America. Moderate SE to S winds and 5 to 6 ft seas in a mix of swell are noted off Colombia and Ecuador. For the forecast, a rather light pressure gradient will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with mostly moderate seas through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on T.S. Rachel and T.D. Nineteen-E. The remnant low of Odalys is near 20N124W with a pressure of 1007 mb. Elsewhere, and away from the tropical cyclones, fresh northeast winds and rough seas in a mix of swell are ongoing north of 20N and from 07N to 20N west of 125W. For the forecast, Nineteen-E will move to 14.2N 129.6W Wed morning, 14.4N 127.8W Wed afternoon, 14.7N 125.9W Thu morning, become a remnant low and move to 14.8N 124.1W Thu afternoon, 14.9N 122.1W Fri morning, and dissipate Fri afternoon. Winds and seas will diminish elsewhere outside of tropical cyclone area as described above.