Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu May 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 05N90W to 09N100W to 06N115W. The ITCZ continues from 06N115W to 05130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 120 nm either side of the monsoon trough east of 110W, and within 90 nm north of the ICTZ between 120W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh winds prevail west of the Baja California peninsula, where seas are in the 5-7 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, are noted in the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are expected over much of the forecast waters through the remainder of the week and into early next week, except for some large NW swell that may approach Guadalupe Island off Baja California Norte Sat night and Sun. Looking ahead, gap winds may strengthen along with building seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night through Tue night as a cold front moves through southern Mexico. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo, while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are moderate in S-SW swell across the waters, except slight offshore Colombia. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are active off the coasts of western Panama and Costa Rica. For the forecast, moderate to fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds will pulse at night in the Papagayo region through early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected. Expect large SW swell near the Galapagos Islands Fri and Sat. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge dominates the forecast waters north of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 115W. Seas are 6-9 ft in these waters, highest west of 135W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will support fresh trades, strong at times, north of the ITCZ to about 20N and west of 120W through the remainder of the week and the weekend, with seas of 7-8 ft across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere through the week, except rough seas building south of the Equator from Thu-Sat night in southerly swell.