Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jan 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between high pressure surging southward over eastern Mexico and relatively lower pressure south of Mexico is resulting in 30 to 40 kt north to northeast gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Seas are currently 10 to 15 ft with these gale winds. These winds are forecast to diminish to fresh to strong speeds this afternoon and continue at those speeds into early on Fri. Seas will subside to 8 to 11 ft today and to 6 to 8 ft on Fri. However, arctic high pressure will again build southward over eastern Mexico beginning Fri, with the gradient again tightening over southeastern Mexico. North winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will reach near gale speeds Fri afternoon and to gale- force late Fri night, possibly lasting until later in the weekend. These winds may reach strong gale speeds late on Sat. Seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to build to 11 to 17 ft late on Sat. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Zone Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml for more details on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from a 1011 low that is over northwest Colombia southwestward to south of the Gulf of Panama near 07N79W, and northwestward to 09N84W, then south- southwestward to 05N90W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N100W to 05N110W to 06N120W to 06N130W and to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 06N between 84W and 87W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec through late this morning. See the Special Features section above for more details. The pressure gradient between surface ridging west of the Baja Peninsula and a surface trough over the Baja and Gulf of California region supports mostly fresh northwest winds in the Gulf of California south of 29N as noted in an Ascat-B satellite data pass from 0427Z last night and also from an Ascat-C satellite data pass from 0505Z last night. The same scatterometer satellite data passes indicate light to gentle northwest winds in the northern section of the Gulf. Seas are 2 to 4 ft in the Gulf. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, winds over the remainder of the Mexican waters are northwest to north in direction, and gentle to moderate in speeds along with seas of 4 to 6 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 5 to 7 ft east of 98W, where northeast swell generated from the ongoing gale event has boosted seas over those waters. The scatterometer satellite data passes also indicated gentle to moderate west to northwest winds over the offshore waters from Guerrero to southern Jalisco. Isolated showers are possible from 18N to 21N, from just along and inland the coast of Mexico west to 108W. For the forecast outside of the Tehuantepec region, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure surging southward over eastern Mexico and relatively lower pressure south of Mexico is resulting in north to northeast gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. These winds are forecast to diminish to fresh to strong speeds this afternoon and continue into early on Fri. A strong cold front that will move across the Gulf of America will usher in another round of gale conditions in the Tehuantepec region beginning Fri night. These winds may peak to strong gale force, with seas possibly reaching to around 18 ft late on Sat. These conditions may last into Sun night. For the forecast outside of the Tehuantepec region, high pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will continue to force moderate to fresh northwest winds across the Gulf of California before diminishing Sat night. Large northwest swell will reach the waters west of Baja California Norte on today through Fri while slowly decaying. There is also potential for another set of northwest swell to move through the waters west of Baja California Norte late this weekend or early next week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A 0222Z Ascat satellite data pass depicts fresh to strong northeast winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region extending westward to near 88W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Station 'MRLB" near the coast in northern Costa Rica is reporting northeast winds of 25 kt. Moderate to fresh gap winds are in Gulf of Panama area along with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event is generating northwest to north producing seas up of to 10 ft over the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters. Over the remainder of forecast waters, winds are gentle to moderate in speeds along with seas of 3 to 5 ft in northwest to north swell. Higher seas of 5 to 6 ft are elsewhere over the offshore waters of northern Costa Rica and southern Nicaragua. For the forecast, high pressure over Central America and the western Caribbean will maintain fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds in the Papagayo region through Sat, except reaching near gale speeds tonight and Sat night into early Sun. Gale-force winds are possible Sun through Mon. The same high pressure will bring moderate to fresh north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Panama for the next several days. These winds are may reach near gale to gale-force early next week. Elsewhere, a strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is spreading large northwest to north swell across the Guatemala and El Salvador waters, and should continue through this afternoon. Looking ahead, a new Tehuantepec event should again produce large to very large northwest to north swell over the Guatemala and El Salvador waters Sat night into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1028 mb is analyzed north of the area at 33N136.5W. A ridge extends from the high south-southwestward to near 16N140W. The pressure difference between the ridge and relatively lower pressures in the deep tropics is generally bringing moderate to fresh trades from north of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of about 118W. Ample moisture east of a broad upper- level trough is supporting an area of scattered showers and few thunderstorms from just north of the ITCZ to near 12N and between 114W and 122W. Winds may be gusty at times with this activity. A set of large northwest swell is moving through the northwest part of the area, namely northwest of a line from 30N128W to 16N140W. A cold front is about 300 nm west of the northwest corner of the discussion area. The ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event has generated seas in the range of 8 to 9 ft in northwest to north swell south to near to 03N between 94W and 110W. Elsewhere, moderate seas in mixed northeast to east swell with northwest swell prevail. For the forecast, the coverage area of the trades will change through Fri, then begin to decrease starting late on Fri as the aforementioned cold front continues to weaken through the weekend as it moves across the northwest part of the area. The large northwest swell will continue propagating southeastward reaching 07N by Fri afternoon, but then gradually decay into Sat. Large to very large northwest swell will follow the cold front through the waters west of about 130W through the weekend.