Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jul 1 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Four-E is centered near 14.8N 126.7W, or about 1070 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California, at 01/1500 UTC, moving north at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas of up to 4 m extend eastward up to 120 nm from the center. Scattered moderate convection is noted SE of the center from 09N to 15N between 124W and 131W. TD Four-E is expected to continue moving N with little change in speed through Thu. Some slight strengthening is forecast and Four-E is forecast to become a tropical storm later today or tonight. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Four-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 116W from 18N southward, and moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 110W and 121W. Another tropical wave is now analyzed along 92W from Guatemala southward, moving W at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 87W and 97W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends westward from 10N85W to 05N102W to 15N123W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is near the monsoon trough from 01N to 09N east of 87W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 15N between 97W and 121W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific, southeastward through 30N136W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This pressure pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in NW swell across the Baja California waters. Inside the Gulf of California, moderate SW to W winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft are present in the northern Gulf, while gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft generally prevail across the rest of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds dominate the remaining waters from the Revillagigedo Islands to near Salina Cruz, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in primarily cross- equatorial S swell. A narrow channel of fresh N gap winds continues across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending offshore to near 14N. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across this area. Scattered thunderstorms continue across the far offshore waters S of 12N, offshore of the coasts of eastern Guerrero to Chiapas. For the forecast, the broad surface ridge extending southeastward across the eastern Pacific to near the Revillagigedo Islands will begin to drift southwestward and weaken slightly today through the remainder of the week. This pattern will produce gentle to moderate winds across the Baja waters through Sat, with locally fresh winds possibly each late afternoon and evening. Moderate NW swell moving across these waters will maintain moderate seas through Thu, except rough seas across the far western offshore waters of Baja Norte. A narrow channel of fresh N to NE gap winds will continue to pulse to strong, and sustain moderate to rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region from the nighttime to late morning hours each night and morning through Sat morning. Moderate to fresh W to SW gap winds are also expected in the northern Gulf of California until late this morning. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue to dominate the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 92W and northward across southwestern Nicaragua. Seas are 7 to 9 ft across this area. Gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell prevail across the remainder central America and Colombia offshore waters N of 02N. Moderate S winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in cross-equatorial S swell dominate waters S of 02N between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Refer to the INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH section for information on convection in the region. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong gap winds and moderate to rough seas will continue across the Papagayo region through Fri, and then begin to weaken slightly this weekend. NE to E swell generated by these winds is expected to maintain moderate to locally rough seas well downstream to beyond 90W. Farther south, cross-equatorial southerly swell will keep moderate to locally rough seas near the Galapagos Islands and off Ecuador through Thu morning. Periods of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms persisting near the Colombia coast, and across the southern offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama will continue to expand northward into the northern offshore waters today. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section on Tropical Depression Four-E. A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific southeastward through 30N130W to just N of the Revillagigedo Islands, and is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds, and 6 to 8 ft seas in N to NE swell, north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, outside the vicinity of Tropical Depression (TD) Four-E. East of 120W and north of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 6 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swell prevail. Light to gentle winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in mixed moderate swell are noted near and south of the monsoon trough to near 04N. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds with 6 to 8 ft seas in cross- equatorial S and SE swell prevail elsewhere south of 04N. For the forecast, as TD Four-E gradually tracks NNW over the next few days, a large swath of fresh to strong winds and rough seas farther NW and N of Four-E will move ahead of the system. Outside of this system, little changes are anticipated north of the ITCZ for the next several days. South of the ITCZ, a gradual decrease in both winds and seas will occur by Thu.