Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Oct 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0855 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Trudy is centered near 19.7N 108.0W at 19/0900 UTC, moving west at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 999 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 18N to 22N and between 106W and 109W. A W motion is expected to continue through tonight, followed by a gradual turn toward the northwest on Tuesday. Rapid weakening is expected to continue today, and Trudy is forecast to degenerate to a post-tropical cyclone by tonight. Swells generated by Trudy will continue affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and west- central Mexico through today. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Trudy. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A 1025 mb high pressure system over NE Mexico continues to support strong to gale-force northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending downstream to 08N. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured winds up to 41 kt. Seas in these waters are rough to very rough, with a recent altimeter satellite pass estimating seas up to 17 ft. These conditions will continue into Tue night. Winds will diminish below gale-force by Wed, but remain at strong to near gale-force, along with rough seas, through the remainder of the week. Winds may reach gale-force strength again Thu night into Fri. South of Southern Mexico: Disorganized showers and thunderstorms have persisted with an area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles south of Guatemala. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form around the middle of this week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 kt, well to the south of the coast of southern Mexico. The chance of formation in the next 48 hours is medium and in the next 7 days is high. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 06N109W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N123W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present south of 16N and east of 105W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Trudy and on a Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, high pressure north of the area extends weakly into the offshore waters of Baja California and the Gulf of California, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. However, seas to 8 ft associated with Trudy extend into the southern part of the Gulf of California and south of Cabo San Lazaro. In the remainder of the basin, gentle to moderate NW winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Trudy will move to 19.6N 108.4W this afternoon, become post-tropical and move to 19.6N 109.0W Tue morning, weaken to a remnant low near 19.8N 109.7W Tue afternoon, 20.2N 110.1W Wed morning, 20.7N 110.6W Wed afternoon, and dissipate Thu morning. A strong high pressure system over NE Mexico continues to support strong to gale-force northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending downstream to 08N. These conditions will continue into Tue night, along with rough to very rough seas. Winds will diminish below gale-force by Wed, but remain at strong to near gale-force, along with rough seas, through the remainder of the week. Winds may increase to gale-force again Thu night into Fri. Looking ahead, disorganized showers and thunderstorms have persisted with an area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles south of Guatemala. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form around the middle of this week as the system moves westward to west- northwestward at around 10 mph, well to the south of the coast of southern Mexico.. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low over the next 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is supporting moderate to fresh northerly winds and rough seas to 12 ft in the far offshore waters of Guatemala. Seas to 8 ft have expanded into the far offshore waters of El Salvador and Nicaragua. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh NE winds well downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec gales will diminish today, while rough seas will persist through Wed. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas will generally prevail through the week. Looking ahead, winds may pulse to fresh to locally strong in the Gulf of Papagayo starting midweek into late this week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1032 mb high pressure system centered near 35N153W extends southeastward into the tropical eastern Pacific waters, sustaining moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft west of 125W and north of the ITCZ. Gap winds originating from the Gulf of Tehuantepec have extended southward, bringing strong winds and rough seas to waters north of 06N and between 94W and 100W. Long-period southerly swell is producing rough seas along and south of the equator. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned gap winds will continue to bring periods of strong N winds and rough seas to waters N of 05N between 92W and 103W early this week. A cold front will move S of 30N tonight, bringing fresh to strong winds behind it N of 25N through Wed. A couple rounds of NW swell, both ahead of and behind this front, will bring rough to very rough seas to waters N of 20N from Mon night through Thu. Looking ahead, disorganized showers and thunderstorms have persisted with an area of disturbed weather located several hundred miles south of Guatemala. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to form around the middle of this week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at around 10 mph, well to the south of the coast of southern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low over the next 7 days.