Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Oct 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Simon is centered near 16.0N 104.7W at 09/1500 UTC, moving northwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are near 25 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed from 13N to 19N between 101W and 108W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 11N to 20N between 100W and 110W. Simon is moving toward the northwest. A slow turn toward the north is expected today and tonight. Simon is then forecast to move generally northward, with the center passing very near or over the west- central coast of Mexico on Sunday. Continued rapid strengthening is expected during the next day or so. Simon is forecast to become a major hurricane by this evening and strengthen further on Saturday. Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 8 to 15 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum totals of 25 inches possible across portions of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco and Nayarit through Sunday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Simon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Rachel is centered near 22.8N 124.6W at 09/1500 UTC, moving northeast at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Scattered moderate convection is within 75 nm E semicircle of center. Rachel is moving toward the northeast. A general northeast to north- northeast motion, with a significant increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is expected to approach the northern Baja California Peninsula or southern California late Saturday or early Sunday. Some strengthening is possible the next day or two, with rapid weakening forecast after the storm moves inland over the southwestern United States on Sunday. Rachel will bring 1 to 3 inches of rain to portions of Baja California this weekend. Swells partly generated by Rachel will build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions, as well as moderate to isolated major coastal flooding, through early next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 10N86W to 13N94W, then resumes near 14N128W to beyond 08N140W. In addition to the convection associated with Rachel and Simon, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 13N E of 90W to the coast of Colombia, and from 00N to 08N W of 90W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Simon. Outside of the areas impacted by Simon, a weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, Hurricane Simon will move to 16.5N 104.8W this evening, 17.2N 104.9W Sat morning, 18.2N 105.0W Sat evening, 19.4N 105.2W Sun morning, inland to 20.7N 105.4W Sun evening, and 21.9N 105.6W Mon morning. Simon will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland near 23.6N 106.2W early Tue. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Rachel will move to 23.4N 123.6W this evening, 25.1N 121.0W Sat morning, 28.5N 118.1W Sat evening, inland to 33.3N 116.0W Sun morning, inland to 38.1N 114.0W Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning. Expected increasing winds and building seas over the northern Gulf of California Sat night into Sun as Rachel approaches Baja California Norte. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are noted N of 03N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail S of 03N. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast waters through the middle of next week. An area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for some gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form as the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Rachel. Outside of the influence of Tropical Storm Rachel, moderate to fresh winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail N of 15N and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Rachel will move to 23.4N 123.6W this evening, 25.1N 121.0W Sat morning, 28.5N 118.1W Sat evening, inland to 33.3N 116.0W Sun morning, inland to 38.1N 114.0W Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning. A tightening pressure gradient between Rachel and a ridge over the NW forecast area will bring fresh to strong N winds and rough seas across the waters N of 25N between 128W and 135W by tonight. These marine conditions will persist on Sat. Large SW swell will continue to affect the waters S of the Equator and west of 105W over the next couple of days.