Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Nov 12 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A 1029 mb high pressure system over the northeast Gulf of America continues to support strong to near-gales northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated winds to 30 kt across the basin. These winds will likely pulse to gale force tonight due to added drainage effects. In addition, strong to near-gale force winds extend downstream the Gulf of Tehuantepec to 10N and west to 100W. Seas are currently peaking around 12 ft (4 M) and rough seas extend south to 02N and west to 110W. Winds and seas will diminish as the high pressure weakens and shift eastward in the next few days, but pulses to gale-force will continue through across the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu night. Seas will gradually subside, decreasing below 8 ft Fri night. Large NW swell following frontal boundary: A cold front moving into the region from the north-central Pacific, and is currently passing 30N140W. The front will continue to move eastward across the waters of the discussion area north of 20N into Sat. Large NW swell in excess of 12 ft and wind speeds to near gale- force will follow the front over the waters north of 25N from late today into Sat. Seas are forecast to peak around 17 ft Thu. Rough seas will reach south to 10N and the offshore waters of Baja California late Fri into Sat. Winds and seas will diminish Sun. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N90W to 06N105W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N105W to 09N115W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 07N to 10N between 90W to 115W, and from 11N to 14N between 102W and 106W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for additional information on the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A 1018 mb high pressure system is near Guadalupe Island near 28N120W. The weak pressure gradient supports gentle to locally moderate NW winds and moderate seas across the Baja California offshore waters. Elsewhere outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downstream waters, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the gale-force N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to pulse into Thu night. Rough to very rough seas accompany these gales downstream. Winds and seas will gradually diminish through late Fri as the high pressure north of the area weakens and shifts eastward. Farther north, a cold front will move across Baja California and the Gulf of California late Thu through Sat. Expect fresh to strong SW gap winds across the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front late Sat into early Sun. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas to 12 ft will follow the front off Baja California late Thu into Sat, before subsiding Sun. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the region continues to dominate the basin. The tight pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in fresh to strong N-NE winds in the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters, captured by a scatterometer satellite pass around 16 UTC. Farther west, a strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is producing seas to 9 ft and fresh to locally strong N winds in the waters off Guatemala beyond 60 nm. The same high pressure system is forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas in the Gulf of Papagayo area. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly breezes and moderate seas in S swell are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse each night and morning over the next few days across the Papagayo region as a strong high pressure builds into the NW Caribbean. Offshore of Guatemala, expect rough seas through Fri as gale-force gap wind event continues in the nearby Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas will persist into the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section regarding large NW swell and strong to near gale-force winds following a cold front entering the region. East of 110W, a scatterometer satellite pass from 16 UTC showed that a strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is supporting fresh to strong NE-E winds from 07N to 13N. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. Divergent flow aloft associated with an upper trough between 105W and 110W is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms from 11N to 14N between 102W and 106W. Low level convergent flow enhanced by the outflow from the Tehuantepec gap wind event is supporting showers and thunderstorms along the monsoon trough and ITCZ from 07N to 10N between 90W to 115W. Meanwhile, a few showers and thunderstorms are active on the northern end of a surface trough along 125W from 10N to 18N. South of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, recent altimeter satellite passes confirmed seas to 8 ft, primarily in southerly swell. Farther north, a 1012 mb occluded low is centered near 27N135W, supporting fresh winds a locally rough seas in the vicinity. This feature is about to be overtaken by a cold front approaching from the northwest, currently extending from 30N135W to 26N140W. Elsewhere, weak high pressure dominates and sustains moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas. For the forecast, outside of the area in the Special Features section, the winds and seas associated with the gap wind event will gradually dimish over the next couple of days. The large southerly swell is subsiding below 8 ft, and will be overtaken by northerly swell moving into the region. Moderate southerly winds and moderate seas will then prevail south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ into the weekend.