Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Sep 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Karina is centered near 18.3N 130.8W at 02/0300 UTC, moving west at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 946 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Peak seas are around 29 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 16N to 22N between 128W and 133W. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the next several days. Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 16.1N 110.3W at 02/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are around 18 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 04N to 20N between 102W and 116W. Additional strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Marie is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next few days and will likely spread northward to southern California over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 88W, extending across Central America to 04N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring north of 04N and E of 91W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N96W to 12N105W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is present from 02N to 11N and W of 117W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Marie centered SW of Mexico. Tropical Storm Marie is near 16.1N 110.3W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Aside from the impacts of Tropical Storm Marie, a weak pressure gradient across the offshore waters of Baja California sustains moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. A slightly tighter pressure gradient in the northern Gulf of California is allowing for locally fresh southerly winds and slight seas. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Marie will strengthen to a hurricane near 16.9N 111.4W Wed morning, move to 17.9N 112.8W Wed evening, 18.7N 114.3W Thu morning, 19.4N 115.9W Thu evening, 19.8N 117.3W Fri morning, and 20.5N 118.8W Fri evening. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves near 21.8N 121.3W late Sat. Elsewhere, a tighter pressure gradient will result in fresh to locally strong southerly winds and moderate seas in the northern Gulf of California tonight into Fri night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the area supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas in the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending outward to 88W. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean will sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo through the workweek. Winds may pulse to strong speeds at night late this week into the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Hurricane Karina centered between Mexico and Hawaii, and Tropical Storm Marie located southwest of Mexico. Tropical Storm Marie is near 16.1N 110.3W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Hurricane Karina is near 18.3N 130.8W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 946 mb. Aside from the impacts of Hurricane Karina and Tropical Storm Marie, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas dominate the tropical eastern Pacific. Otherwise, a small area of cross equatorial swell is noted south of the equator producing seas to 8 ft. For the forecast, Marie will strengthen to a hurricane near 16.9N 111.4W Wed morning, move to 17.9N 112.8W Wed evening, 18.7N 114.3W Thu morning, 19.4N 115.9W Thu evening, 19.8N 117.3W Fri morning, and 20.5N 118.8W Fri evening. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves near 21.8N 121.3W late Sat. Karina will move to 18.7N 132.3W Wed morning, 19.1N 134.2W Wed evening, 19.5N 136.1W Thu morning, 19.9N 138.0W Thu evening, 20.2N 139.8W Fri morning, and 20.7N 141.6W Fri evening. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves near 22.3N 144.3W late Sat. Elsewhere, the cross equatorial swell will remain south of 02N over the next few days, producing seas to 9 ft before subsiding late this week.