Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Sep 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Fifteen-E is centered near 16.1N 123.9W at 15/1500 UTC, moving west at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are near 12 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 20N between 115W and 124W. Ongoing shear and entrainment of dry air over the next several days will prevent this system from developing into a tropical storm. However, strong to near- gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will accompany Fifteen-E mainly on the north side of the low pressure as it continues to move westward over the next two to three days. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Fifteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure building over southern Mexico and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will support strong to near-gale force N to NE gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Wed, and will reach minimal gale force Wed night. Rough seas will accompany these gap winds. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 105W from 02N to 17N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N118W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 10N east of 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more on a gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are over the northern Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to fresh winds are over the northern Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-7 ft are noted elsewhere, except 1-3 ft in the central and southern Gulf. For the forecast, please see the Special Features section for information about the gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, fresh SE to S winds pulse across the northern Gulf of California through Wed. Large N swell off Baja California Norte near Guadalupe Island will subside through mid week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate seas, prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending downstream to near 90W. Moderate to fresh winds from this gap wind extends to the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, a ridge north of the area will continue to support pulsing fresh to occasionally strong easterly winds and moderate to rough seas across the Papagayo region through mid week, then pulsing to moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate winds and seas will prevail elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Tropical Depression Fifteen-E. Post-Tropical Cyclone Norbert is near 20.5N 143.1W at 1500 UTC, and is moving west at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, along with fresh to strong E winds and 8-10 ft seas are active northeast of the center, reaching from 21N to 23N between 138W and 140W. Please read the latest CPHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/HFOTCPCP1.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/HFOTCMCP1.shtml for more details. Elsewhere, N swell to 8 ft is impacting the waters north of 29N between 121W and 125W. SW swell from the southern hemisphere is cross the equator and reaching as far north as 04N between 100W and 120W. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft combined seas in mixed swell are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, winds and seas following Norbert will diminish through late today east of 140W. Tropical Depression Fifteen-E will move to 15.8N 125.4W this evening, 15.6N 127.2W Wed morning, 15.6N 129.1W Wed evening, 15.6N 131.2W Thu morning, become a remnant low and move to 15.8N 133.5W Thu evening, and 16.2N 136.0W Fri morning. Fifteen-E will dissipate early Sat. The southerly swell to 8 ft south of 04N will subside through late today, as will the northerly swell north of 29N between 120W and 125W.