Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Oct 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Vance is centered near 9.6N 100.7W at 22/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas of 14 ft are expected within 30 nm in the north semicircle of the system. Steady to rapid intensification is expected, and the system is forecast to become a hurricane on Friday. Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest T.S. Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure over Mexico and T.S. Vance is supporting near- gale force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Winds are pulsing to gale-force tonight and will happen again on Thu night across the Tehuantepec region as Vance further intensifies. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 09N94W. It resumes west of T.S. Vance near 06N105W to 05N110W. The ITCZ extends from 05N110W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 08N east of 94W, and scattered moderate to strong convection is from 00N to 14N and W of 118W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Vance and the Gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and T.S. Vance, light to gentle breezes and moderate seas prevail, except for slight seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, T.S. Vance will move to 9.8N 101.2W Thu morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 10.4N 102.1W Thu evening, 10.9N 102.9W Fri morning, 11.5N 103.5W Fri evening, 12.3N 103.9W Sat morning, and 13.5N 104.1W Sat evening. Vance will change little in intensity as it moves to 15.4N 105.0W by late Sun. The pressure gradient between high pressure over Mexico and T.S. Vance is supporting near-gale force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Winds are pulsing to gale-force tonight and will happen again on Thu night across the Tehuantepec region as Vance further intensifies. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the discussion waters. For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo region. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on newly named TS Vance. Elsewhere, a 1006 mb low pressure area is centered near 35N122W, with associated weakening cold front extending from 30N118W to 21N139W. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas with maximum wave heights to 12 ft follow the front. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in a mix of swell are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the front will dissipate through late Thu as it continues to moves westward, with winds and seas diminishing as they spread southward over the waters north of 15N and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere. T.S. Vance will move to 9.8N 101.2W Thu morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 10.4N 102.1W Thu evening, 10.9N 102.9W Fri morning, 11.5N 103.5W Fri evening, 12.3N 103.9W Sat morning, and 13.5N 104.1W Sat evening. Vance will change little in intensity as it moves to 15.4N 105.0W by late Sun. The pressure gradient between high pressure over Mexico and TS Vance is supporting near-gale force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Winds are pulsing to gale-force tonight and will happen again on Thu night across the Tehuantepec region as Vance further intensifies.