Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jan 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: The next gap wind event across the Tehunatepec region is slated to begin early Mon morning as a ridge builds across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico, behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of America. Wind are forecast to suddenly increase to 35-40 kt, with seas building to 9 to 12 ft by late Mon afternoon. Looking ahead, winds will further increase to minimal storm force by Mon evening with seas building to 28 ft Mon night into Tue morning. Gusty winds to near hurricane force may occur during Mon night. Large seas generated from this strong gap wind event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 12 ft or greater reaching as far south as 10N by Tue morning. Marine interests transiting across or in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week should be aware of this upcoming gap wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid this hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. Winds are forecast to diminish below storm force by late Tue morning but strong gale force winds of 40-45 kt will persist. Gale conditions are then forecast to continue through late Thu morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on this event. Of note: The monthly distribution of Tehuantepec events shows that the largest number of gale force events occurs in December. Storm-force events occur most often in January. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 09N84W to 04N102W. The ITCZ continues from 04N102W to 03N111W to 05N119W then resumes near 07N123W to beyond 07N140W. A surface trough is within the ITCZ and runs from 12N117W to 05N122W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 08N between 129W and 136W. Elsewhere convection is limited. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends over NW Mexico and the southern Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between a ridge across the Baja California offshore waters and this trough supports fresh to strong NW winds between Cabo San Lucas and Punta Eugenia with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Mainly fresh NW winds are noted N of Punta Eugenia, including the Bay of Sebastian Vizcaino, with moderate seas. Fresh to strong SW winds are also seen from 22N to 24N within about 90 nm E of the trough axis, including the entrance to the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in NW swell dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore forecast waters, including the Tehuantepec area. For the forecast, a very strong gap wind event is slated to begin in the Tehuantepec region Mon morning, with winds rapidly increasing to storm force by Mon evening. Very rough seas will be associated with these wind speeds. Please, see the Special Features section for more information on this event. Otherwise, a high pressure system will prevail over the western United States through Thu night along with a surface trough along the Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between these two features will result in moderate to fresh N to NW winds along and at the entrance of the Gulf of California, also extending to Jalisco offshore waters. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are across the Papagayo region and downwind to about 89W. Seas are 4 to 6 ft within these winds. Moderate N winds with slight to moderate seas prevail in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds with moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell prevail. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas in the Papagayo region through early Sun morning. Fresh to strong winds in this region will resume again Mon night into Tue, and reach near gale force speeds by Tue evening, with seas building to 10 or 11 ft. Moderate to locally fresh N winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Thu night. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or weaker through the middle of the next week. Seas generated by a very strong gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beginning Mon evening. The highest seas, in the 12 to 19 ft range in NW swell, are expected on Tue. Rough seas may persist through Thu night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends southward from a 1023 mb high pressure located near 34N136W across the northern forecast waters, particularly N of 15N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is promoting an area of moderate to fresh trades N of the ITCZ to about 17N and W of 125W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within these winds. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are moderate in mixed NE wind wave and long period NW swell. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to build southward across the forecast region on Sun, with a high pressure cell developing near 32N136W. The high pressure will move E through Tue as a cold front approaches the NW corner of the forecast waters. The front will reach from 30N135W to 26N140W by Mon night, and from 30N133W to 24N140W by Tue morning. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead and behind the front by Mon night, then winds will diminish 10 to 15 kt on Tue. Rough seas are forecast in the wake of the front.