Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Jul 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP96): A tropical wave along 106W is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, with strong and gusty winds, located a couple of hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from 10.5N to 19.5N between 103W and 110W, and is forming into bands this morning, suggesting that this system is becoming better organized. In addition, a 1007 low pressure circulation has developed near 14.5N 106W. Peak winds to 30 kt are occurring within 60 nm across the eastern semicircle of this low, where seas are 8 to 12 ft. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are noted elsewhere within 240 nm N and E of the low center. Environmental conditions are favorable for continued development, and a tropical depression or tropical storm is expected to form later today or tonight while the system moves generally west-northwestward, staying well offshore of the coast of Mexico. In anticipation of this, a gale warning has been issued. Expect strong winds and rough seas near the Revillagigedo Islands by Tue evening, as the low pressure makes its closest point of approach to the south of the islands. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 90W, north of 03N to the Yucatan Peninsula, moving quickly westward at 20 kt. Convection is described in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section. A tropical wave is along 106W, identified as Invest EP96, and described above in the Special Features section. A tropical wave is along 134.5W from 04N to 20N, moving slowly westward at around 5 kt. Associated convection is described ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N74.5W to 10N83W to 08N88W. Segments of the ITCZ are from 07.5N90W to 10N103.5W, then from 10.5N110.5W to 06.5N125W to 09.5N130W, then from 13.5N136W to 10.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 09N to 15N between 88W and 100W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 14N between 108W and 113W, from 02N to 14N between 113W and 128W, and from 06N to 16N between 125W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... In addition to the winds and seas described in the Special Features section off southwest Mexico, fresh to strong gap winds are across the Gulf of Tehuantepec as seen by overnight satellite scatterometer data. Broad ridging prevails elsewhere offshore of Baja Baja California and to the NW of EP96. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds and 4 to 5 ft seas across the Baja waters, and light breezes with 1-3 ft seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, in addition to the impacts of the developing low pressure...EP96...described in the Special Features section above, the ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through early Thu, allowing for gentle to moderate NW to N winds to continue along with moderate seas in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle winds will prevail through tonight, increasing to moderate to locally fresh in the central and northern portions midweek. Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the week and into the upcoming weekend, strongest during the late night and early morning hours, with locally rough seas at times. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form later this week several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward well offshore of Mexico. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong E winds continue across the Papagayo region to near 90W, as seen by overnight satellite scatterometer data, with moderate to fresh easterly winds elsewhere from 10N to 13N. Seas are 5 to 8 ft downstream of Papagayo and 5 to 6 ft elsewhere. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. Moderate seas dominate the waters. Convection associated with a tropical wave across the area has diminished over the area waters this morning. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region mainly at night through at least Sat night with moderate to locally rough seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands where slight seas are expected. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh NE winds are near the northern portion of a tropical wave at 134.5W along with locally rough seas. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere, except for moderate to fresh SE winds and 5-7 ft seas south of 07N between 100W and 120W. A surface trough is analyzed north of the ITCZ along 127W-128W, south of 18N. For the forecast, winds and seas associated with the tropical wave near 134.5W will diminish through Wed as the wave shifts west of 140W by Thu. NE winds will freshen with seas 5-7 ft thereafter north of 15N and west of 125W between broad low pressure along the monsoon trough riding farther north. Elsewhere, the main issue will be the development and track of the low pressure...EP96...described in the Special Features section above. Expect tropical cyclone development with this low pressure through mid week as it moves northwest of the Revillagigedo Islands. Farther south, moderate to fresh SE winds and 5-7 ft seas will cross the Equator between 100W and 120W and reach as far north as 10N through mid week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form later this week several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the weekend while it moves generally west- northwestward well offshore of Mexico.