Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Aug 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Genevieve is centered near 23.5N 136.0W at 02/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are near 17 ft or 5 m. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm in the NE semicircle. Genevieve will maintain a gradual weakening trend while moving on a west- northwestward track through the remainder of the weekend. The system is forecast to become post- tropical by early next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Genevieve NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 99W, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 121W, from 02N to 18N, moving westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/Monsoon trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 09N106W to 12N121W to 10N127W. The ITCZ continues from 10N127W to 07N135W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 11N between 80W and 124W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the region. Moderate seas dominate the open waters off Mexico, with slight seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure west of the area and lowering pressure over the Colorado River Valley will support fresh SW winds and building seas over the northern Gulf of California through the early part of next week. Elsewhere, a moderate pressure gradient will support mostly gentle to moderate NW winds across the offshore waters of Mexico. Long- period NW swell will move into the waters off Baja California Norte Sun night through then start to subside Tue. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds and moderate seas prevail over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds are found between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region into Sun, with occasionally rough seas. Moderate to fresh winds will then pulse thereafter. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected across the remainder of the waters through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Genevieve. For waters not impacted by Genevieve, high pressure is centered just northwest of the area. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and Genevieve is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds to the northwest of Genevieve. Seas in this region are in the 7 to 9 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail over the remainder of the discussion waters. For the forecast, the center of Tropical Storm Genevieve will move to 24.3N 138.0W Sun morning, become post-tropical and move west of the area near 25.2N 140.4W Sun evening, then weaken to a remnant low near 26.1N 142.5W Mon morning. Away from Genevieve, little change in marine conditions is forecast through the weekend. Rough northerly swell off California is likely to push southward into the waters off Baja California Norte north of 27N and east of 130W into early next week. New large southerly swell may build south of the Equator and west of 100W beginning Tue night.