Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Nov 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0940 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant NW Swell Event: A series of NW swell sets will continue to impact the waters N of about 05N for the next several days associated with the passage of several cold fronts. Currently, a cold front extends from 30N115W to 24N130W where it stalls to 21N138W. Ahead of the front, and extending as far south of 05N and W of 110W, rough seas of 8 to 12 ft in decaying NW swell associated with a former front is ongoing. The period of this swell is 8 to 10 seconds. Elsewhere, N of 16N and behind the front, a reinforcing and larger set of NW swell with 12 to 16 seconds period continues to spread across the northern waters with peak seas around 22 ft. The front is forecast to reach Punta Eugenia later this morning while weakening, with rough seas of 12 to 17 ft spreading as far south as 13N, and rough seas of 8 to 11 ft to 05N. These high energy waves will have a period of 11 to 15 seconds. These seas will keep spreading SE as yet another set with seas of 12 ft or greater continues to enter the NW open waters this morning, which is forecast to spread across the majority of the waters into Tue. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/HSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Panama near 08N78W westward to 08N110W to 08N130W. The ITCZ extends from 08N130W and beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01S to 06N between 95W and 105W, from 03S to 08N E of 85W, and from 09N to 15N between 120W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle to locally moderate NW winds are occurring offshore of Baja California ahead and behind of a cold front moving from 30N115W to 24N130W. Rough seas of 8 to 18 ft are occurring offshore of the Baja peninsula and near the Revillagigedo Islands. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas of 5 to 7 ft in NW swell prevail, except for slight seas of 3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are expected to develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Mon evening. Winds will pulse to gale force Tue evening through Fri, and very rough seas to 14 ft will accompany these winds. Elsewhere, large N to NW swell will support very rough seas offshore of Baja California with peak seas of 12 to 20 ft through today. Seas may temporarily subside to 8 to 12 ft late today into early Mon before the next reinforcing large swell event promotes seas of 8 to 16 ft through midweek. In addition, a cold front is expected to produce fresh to locally strong N to NW winds north of Cabo San Lazaro late Mon through midweek. Elsewhere, rough seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW swell will expand to offshore of southwestern Mexico today through early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate NE winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo where seas are 4 to 5 ft. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are noted along with moderate seas of 5 to 6 ft in mixed SW and NW swell. For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh E to NE winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon night, with fresh to occasionally near gale-force winds developing by Tue and continuing through Fri. Moderate N winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Fri. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Looking ahead, rough seas in N swell may develop well offshore of Guatemala by Wed, prompted by gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, a set of NW swell may build seas to 8 ft or greater SSW of the Galapagos Islands on Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on a series of significant NW swell sets, which will impact much of the open waters. A cold front extends from 30N115W to 24N130W where it stalls to 21N138W. Ahead of the front, and extending as far south of 05N and W of 110W, rough seas of 8 to 12 ft in decaying NW swell associated with a former front is ongoing. The period of this swell is 8 to 10 seconds. Elsewhere, N of 16N and behind the front, a reinforcing and larger set of NW swell with 12 to 16 seconds period continues to spread across the northern waters with peak seas around 22 ft. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail from N of the ITCZ near 08N to 20N and W of 120W. Rough seas of 8 to 15 ft in long period NW swell are within this region of winds. Otherwise, a second cold front is moving across the NW waters, extending from 31N134W to 28N140W, which is being followed by fresh N-NW winds and rough seas of 12 to 21 ft seas. For the forecast, a series of NW swell sets will continue to impact the waters N of about 05N for the next several days associated with the passage of several cold fronts. These seas will keep spreading SE as another set with seas of 12 ft or greater continue to move over the NW open waters, and also forecast to spread across the majority of the waters through midweek. In addition, fresh to strong N to NE winds are expected behind the passage of this new cold front, affecting generally N of 10N and W of 120W late today through the middle of next week.