Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jan 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Gale force winds are blowing across the Tehunatepec region based on the 1556Z ASCAT pass. Fresh to strong winds are noted downwind of the Tehuantepec area to about 14N. Winds will further increase to minimal storm force this evening, with seas building to around 22 ft tonight into Tue morning. At that time, gusty winds to near hurricane force may occur. Large seas generated from this strong gap wind event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 12 ft or greater reaching as far south as 10N by Tue morning. Marine interests transiting across or in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight and Tue should be aware of this very strong gap wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid this hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. Winds are forecast to diminish below storm-force by late Tue morning but strong gale-force winds of 40 to 45 kt will persist. Gale conditions are then forecast to continue through Thu morning. Seas generated from this gap wind event will continue to propagate well away of the Tehuantepec region over the next 48 hours, with the plume of seas in excess of 8 ft covering the waters from 04N to 15N between between 92W and 108W. These seas will combine with long period NW swell reaching the area on Wed. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N94W. The ITCZ continues from 06N94W to 04N112W to 07N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 128W and 137W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting gentle to moderate easterly winds N of Punta Eugenia due to the presence of a 1026 mb high pressure located offshore southern California. Light to gentle winds are noted across the remainder of the Baja California offshore waters. Seas are moderate within these winds. In the Gulf of California, the most recent scatterometer data show moderate to locally fresh NW winds along the entire Gulf, with seas of 1 to 3 ft, except 3 to 4 ft toward the entrance to the Gulf. Moderate to fresh N to NW winds are also offshore Jalisco, including Cabo Corrientes where seas are 4 to 6 ft. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a strong gap wind event is ongoing with N winds of 30 to 40 kt and rough seas. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas in NW swell dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore forecast waters. For the forecast, a very strong gap wind event is expected to continue in the Tehuantepec region reaching storm-force by this evening. Very rough seas will be associated with these wind speeds. Please, see the Special Features section for more information on this event. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NW winds are expected in the Gulf of California through Fri, particularly across the central part of the Gulf, as a high pressure system settles over the SW of the United States. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are observed across the Papagayo region and downwind to about 88W. Seas are 3 to 4 ft within these winds. Moderate N winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in the Gulf of Panama and downwind to about 05N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are noted, with moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell. For the forecast, winds are forecast to increase again to 20 to 25 kt across the Papagayo region by tonight into Tue morning as high pressure builds N of area in the wake of a cold front moving across the NW Caribbean. These winds will reach near gale force, mainly at night Tue through Thu, with seas building to around 10 ft. Moderate to locally fresh N winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Thu night. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or weaker through Sat. Seas generated by a very strong gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beginning this evening. The highest seas, in the 12 to 18 ft range in NW swell, are expected on Tue. Rough seas are forecsat to persist through Thu as seas generated in the Papagayo area will also reach the Guatemala and El Salvador outer offshore waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge, anchored on a 1026 mb high pressure located offshore southern California, dominates the N waters, mainly N of 15N between 110W and 130W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports an area of moderate to locally fresh trades N of the ITCZ to about 18N and W of 110W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within these winds per recent altimeter data. A cold front is reaching the NW corner of the forecast region. Fresh to strong SW winds are ahead of the front based on scatterometer data. A surface trough stretches from from 17N123W to 08N128W. Some convective activity is near the trough axis enhanced by a diffluent pattern aloft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are moderate in mixed NE wind wave and long period NW swell. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will remain nearly stationary over the next 24 hours. The cold front will extend from 30N138W to 27N140W by this evening, and from 30N134W to 25N140W by Tue morning, then will dissipate on Wed. Afterward, high pressure will build in the wake of the front. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead and behind the front by tonight, then winds will diminish 10 to 15 kt on Tue. Rough seas, in the wake of the front, will propagate across the forecast waters covering a large area, NW of a line from 30N128W to 19N140W, by Wed. The surface trough will move westward over the next couple of days.