Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Oct 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0210 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Vance is centered near 21.1N 108.1W at 29/0300 UTC, moving north-northeast at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently around 12-13 ft or 4.0 m. Vance remains a sheared tropical cyclone with convection limited to the NE to E side of the system. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 360 nm in the NE quadrant. The depression is moving toward the north-northeast. A turn to the north, followed by a decrease in forward speed, is expected over the next 24 hours. Slight weakening is forecast to occur during the next day or so, and Vance is expected to become post-tropical within the next 24 hours, dissipating shortly thereafter. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Vance will impact portions of western Mexico during much of this week. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides across central and southern Sinaloa, far southwestern Durango, and far northwestern Nayarit, especially in areas along steep terrain. Swells generated by Vance will affect coastal portions of southwestern and west- central Mexico, as well as the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08.5N77.5W to 03N94W to 06N120W to 1010 mb low pressure near 06N138W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 10.5N between 102W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Depression Vance offshore Cabo Corrientes and nearing the entrance to the Gulf of California and the southern tip of Baja California Sur. Fresh to near gale force northerly winds and moderate seas prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in the Gulf of California, except higher in the southern Gulf through the entrance due to swells from Vance. Elsewhere, winds are mainly moderate or weaker with moderate seas over the open waters off Mexico. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Vance will move to 22.2N 107.6W Thu morning, become a remnant low and move to 23.7N 107.7W Thu evening, 25.2N 108.1W Fri morning, and dissipate Fri evening. Winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse fresh to near gale force through early Fri, then moderate to fresh through Sat night, then fresh to strong thereafter. A developing low pressure and frontal system may impact the Baja California Peninsula waters late in the upcoming weekend with the potential for increasing winds and building seas. Looking ahead fresh NW winds look develop across the Gulf of California early next week in the wake of the system. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail otherwise. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh winds are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo and the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas generally prevail. For the forecast, NE winds over and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo will pulse to moderate to fresh speeds through the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend, locally strong at times starting early Fri. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through the end of the week. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will continue elsewhere, except mainly slight nearshore Colombia. Seas may briefly build to rough in SW swell S of the Equator by the end of the week through Sat night as winds freshen there on Fri. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1009 mb low pressure area is near 30N138W with a frontal trough SSW of the low to 26.5N140W. Fresh to locally strong winds and locally rough seas are within 60 nm east of the front. High pressure prevails elsewhere N of about 17N. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh tradewinds from 14N to 18N and between 126W and 136W. Moderate to fresh winds are found S of 03N between 108W and 120W. Rough seas are found S of 04N between 107W and 130W. Across the remainder of the waters, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas. For the forecast, cross equatorial SW swell will continue to support rough seas over the S-central waters while mixing with NE swells generated by Vance. These rough seas are expected to linger through early Sat. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will persist through at least mid-week. A developing low pressure and frontal system may impact the waters N of 20N by the end of the week into the upcoming weekend, with the potential for increasing winds and building seas as the system shifts eastward. Looking ahead, a large set of rough to very rough NW swell may impact the NW waters early next week, highest near 30N140W.