Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Sep 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Karina is centered near 19.8N 136.7W at 03/1500 UTC, moving west at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 961 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt. Peak seas are around 42 ft. Numerous strong convection is noted from 18N to 22N between 134W and 138W. A general WNW motion is expected to continue for the next couple of days, with a more northwestward motion by this weekend. Karina is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next several days. However, Karina is expected to remain a hurricane for the next couple of days. Hurricane Marie is centered near 19.2N 114.9W at 03/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas remain around 36 ft. Numerous strong convection is noted from 14N to 23N between 108W and 117W. The WNW motion should continue for the next few days. Some strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and gradual weakening is anticipated to begin by this weekend. Swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next few days and will likely spread northward to southern California over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 96W, extending from the Gulf of Tehuantepec to 05N, moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted N of 10N between 87W and 97W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough exits the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W and extends to 09N96W and to 12N111W and then from 12N119W to 12N133W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection north of 02N and east of 85W. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 03N to 14N between 100W and 111W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Marie centered southwest of Baja California, Mexico. Away from the impacts of Hurricane Marie, the pressure gradient between a ridge north of the area and the hurricane sustain fresh northerly winds and moderate seas across the offshore waters of Baja California. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are noted in the northern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are evident in the offshore waters of Mexico. For the forecast, Hurricane Marie is near 19.2N 114.9W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Marie will move to 19.5N 116.0W this evening, 20.0N 117.4W Fri morning, 20.7N 118.7W Fri evening, 21.4N 119.9W Sat morning, 22.2N 121.0W Sat evening, and 22.6N 122.2W Sun morning. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves well west of Baja California early Mon. Elsewhere, a tight pressure gradient will result in fresh to locally strong S to SE winds in the N Gulf of California through Fri night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient extends across the basin supporting moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas. The exception near the Gulf of Papagayo, where moderate to fresh gap winds have developed. Convection continues offshore Guatemala and El Salvador, likely inducing gusty wings and locally higher seas. For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient across Central America will sustain moderate to locally fresh strong E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo through early next week. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are expected in the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Sat. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds will prevail across forecast waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information about Hurricane Karina centered over a 1000 miles east of Hawaii, and Hurricane Marie located southwest of Baja California, Mexico. Aside from the impacts of Hurricanes Karina and Marie, moderate or weaker winds with seas 5-7 ft dominate the tropical NE Pacific. For the forecast, Hurricane Karina is near 19.8N 136.7W at 8 AM PDT, and is moving west at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 100 kt with gusts to 120 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 961 mb. Karina will move to 20.1N 138.0W this evening, 20.6N 139.7W Fri morning, 21.0N 141.3W Fri evening, 21.6N 142.5W Sat morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 22.3N 143.5W Sat evening, and 23.2N 144.6W Sun morning. Karina will become post-tropical as it moves into the Central Pacific basin early Mon. Elsewhere, an area of low pressure could form well offshore of southwestern Mexico over the weekend or early next week. Gradual development is possible, and the system could become a tropical depression around the middle of next week while it moves west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph, likely remaining well offshore of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of formation in the next 7 days.