Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Aug 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western East Pacific (EP99): A low pressure system located about midway between Hawaii and the west coast of Mexico is producing disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity. While this disturbance has changed little in organization during the past few hours, any significant increase in the organization of the associated showers and thunderstorms would result in the formation of a tropical depression today. The system is forecast to move slowly westward or northwestward over the next couple of days and encounter less favorable environmental conditions late this week. There is a high chance for tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 88/89W north of 02N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 120W from 02N to 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N85W to 08N105W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 11N east of 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to near- gale force winds, and rough seas, prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to fresh winds are found west of Baja California Norte. Gentle to moderate winds are found elsewhere. Moderate seas are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, with slight to moderate seas over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the weekend. The pressure gradient between high pressure west of the area and lower pressures over northern Mexico will support moderate to locally fresh southerly winds across the northern Gulf of California tonight into Thu, then again on Thu night. A moderate pressure gradient will promote mostly gentle to moderate winds across the remainder offshore waters of Mexico along with moderate seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong E gap winds, and moderate to locally rough seas, persist across and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds and occasionally rough seas will pulse across the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador, with large southerly swell moving into the region starting Thu night. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad ridging dominates the waters north of 20N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and EP99 and PTC One-C just west of 140W is supporting an area of fresh to near- gale force winds and rough seas over the waters from 07N to 22N between 130W and 140W. Rough seas in southerly swell cover the waters S of 05N between 106W and 130W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, winds and seas are forecast to increase across the west- central portion of the forecast region by the middle part of the week as a potential tropical cyclone develops, as discussed in the Special Features section above. The southerly swell will maintain rough seas over the discussion waters S of 05N between 96W and 130W through the end of the week.