Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jan 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 06N95W. The ITCZ continues from 06N95W to 09N121W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 10N to 15N between 116W and 124W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A stalling cold front is located just offshore Baja California Norte. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds are W of the front, with moderate to fresh NW to N winds SE of the front for the remainder of the waters offshore Baja California. Seas of 6 to 9 ft are behind the front, with 5 to 7 ft seas ahead of it. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are also present near the entrance to the Gulf of California due to the pressure gradient between a low pressure trough along the coast of mainland Mexico and a 1019 mb high pressure centered just N of the Revillagigedo Islands. Strong gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehunatepec due to high pressure building through eastern Mexico. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the front along the Baja California Norte coast will gradually dissipate through late today. Fresh winds will follow the front across the Baja California waters north of Cabo San Lazaro through Thu. Large NW swell will also move as far south as the Revillagigedo Islands into Sun, reinforced by very large swell over the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro through Sat. Meanwhile, strong high pressure building north of the area over the Great Basin will support fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas across the Gulf of California Thu night through Sun night. Looking ahead, a large area of gale- force gap winds and very rough seas is likely across and well downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Sat night as a strong cold front moves through southern Mexico. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure extending across the northwest Caribbean and the Yucatan is supporting fresh NE gap winds across the Papagayo region. Moderate northerly gap winds are also ongoing across the Gulf of Panama. Seas downwind of Papagayo remain 5 to 7 ft and 4 to 6 ft downwind of the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail north of 05N, and gentle to moderate S to SW winds continue south of 05N. Slight to moderate seas in SW swell continue across these waters. For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support pulsing fresh to strong winds across the Papagayo region through early next week. Pulsing fresh northerly winds are also expected across the Gulf of Panama into Fri. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A stalling cold front stretches from a 1014 mb low pressure near 32N120W to 30N116W to 24N123W. Moderate to fresh NW winds and 7 to 10 ft NW swell follow the front. Farther W, fresh trades between the ITCZ and 22N are inducing wind-waves that are combining with lingering N swell to cause rough seas. Moderate to fresh SE winds and 7 to 9 ft seas in a mix of swell are noted south of the ITCZ west of 120W. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to 6 ft are evident elsewhere. For the forecast, the stalling front will dissipate tonight. High pressure building behind the front Thu and Fri will support fresh trade winds and rough seas from 10N to 22N west of 120W. The current NW to N swell across the regional waters will subside through mid week, just as new NW swell moves into the waters north of 20N through the latter part of the week. A sharp mid to upper trough will dig further southward into the deep tropics through Thu, and support continued active convection along the ITCZ west of 130W extending northward to near 20N.