Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jun 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure area south of Clarion Island (EP94): 1008 mb low pressure is centered near 17.5N115W or about 60 nm SSW of Clarion Island, along a tropical wave. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active within 45 nm of the center. Recent satellite wind data suggest the circulation is a little better defined and a tropical depression could still form within the next day or so while environmental conditions remain favorable for development. This system is moving to the west to west- northwest at 15 to 20 mph, and by Thursday it is forecast to move into an unfavorable environment, ending its chances for further development. Regardless of development, fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas may accompany the low pressure or remnant trough as it moves westward along roughly 20N through Sat. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 88W, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 102W, south of 16N, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 13N to 15N between 100W and 102W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 115W, south of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. An area of low pressure, EP94, is along this tropical wave near 17.5N115W. Please see the Special Features section above for more information on this low pressure system. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N95W to 11N115W to 08N127W. The ITCZ extends from 08N127W to 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 10N between 84W and 92W, and from 08N to 10N between 120W and 122W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Near-gale force gap winds are likely ongoing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning. These gap winds are due to lowering pressure farther south across the deep tropics. Rough seas up to at least 9 ft are building farther downstream in response to the strong to near-gale force plume of gap winds. Farther west, a recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong just to the southeast of Clarion Island, associated with the developing low pressure area known as EP94 described in the Special Features section. Concurrent altimeter passes showed 5-7 ft seas across the Revillagigedo Islands. Farther north, the same scatterometer pass indicated moderate to fresh near the coast of Baja California south of San Quintin. Elsewhere, mostly gentle breezes and 4-6 ft combined seas in a mix of swell, except for 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, lowering pressure over the deep tropics is inducing near-gale force gap winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec today, with fresh to strong gap winds pulsing mainly late at night thereafter through Fri night. Elsewhere, winds and seas across the Mexican Offshores should be quiescent, except for large swell off southern Mexico by the end of the week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong gap winds over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo area, where seas are estimated to be 5-7 ft. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting a Gulf of Papagayo region gap wind event that may last into early next week. Elsewhere winds should remain quiescent until the end of the week. Large S swell will move into the equatorial waters into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for more information on EP94. Broad ridging dominates the waters north of 20N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 130W, where seas are in the 6-8 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft are elsewhere N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-8 ft with a component of SW swell prevail south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. For the forecast aside from EP94, another low pressure system is likely to form this weekend south of the Revillagigedo Islands. Some slow development of this system is possible after that time, and it could become a tropical depression early next week while it moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Regardless of development, a plume of fresh E to SE winds and moderate to rough seas may develop from roughly the Gulf of Papagayo to south of the Revillagigedo Islands by late in the week. Farther south, large southerly swell to 8 ft will move into the waters south of the equator between 90W and 120W starting Thu.