Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Nov 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant NW Swell Event: A series of NW swell sets will continue to impact much of the open waters for the next several days associated with the passage of several cold fronts. Currently, a trough extends from 30N117.5W to 22N133W. Very rough seas of 12 to 20 ft are noted on recent altimeter and buoy data as far south as 11N, with the highest seas occurring offshore of Baja California. Widespread rough seas of 8 to 11 ft are observed on altimeter data north of the equator and west of 110W. The period of this swell is 16 to 20 seconds. A cold front over the northwestern waters, located from 30N130.5W to 25.5N140W, is ushering in a reinforcing NW swell. Recent buoy and altimeter data indicate that peak seas of 18 to 20 ft in a 14 to 16 second period are occurring in this region. These seas will spread southeastward through early this week. Another cold front will lead to a renewed NW swell later this week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/HSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09.5N84.5W to 05N95W to 07.5N130W. The ITCZ continues from 07.5N130W to 06N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is ongoing from 03S to 10N east of 95W and from 11N to 15N between 107W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on a series of significant NW swell sets, which will impact the waters offshore of Baja California this week. A trough extends from 30N117.5W to 22N133W. Very rough seas of 12 to 20 ft are noted on recent altimeter and buoy data offshore of Baja California. Widespread rough seas of 8 to 11 ft are observed on altimeter data as far south as the Revillagigedo Islands. The period of this swell is 16 to 20 seconds. Moderate or weaker N winds are noted via scatterometer data in this region. Offshore of southwestern Mexico, moderate to locally rough seas of 5 to 8 ft are noted. Elsewhere, in the Gulf of California, mainly gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds are slated to develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon afternoon before strengthening to gale force Tue morning. Gale force winds are then expected to pulse through much of this week, and very rough seas of 12 to 14 ft will occur in tandem with these winds. Elsewhere, very rough seas of 12 to 20 ft in NW swell will expand southeastward offshore of Baja and toward the Revillagigedo Islands through tonight, and rough seas of 8 to 11 ft are expected to extend offshore of southwestern Mexico over the next several days. Looking ahead, a cold front is slated to produce fresh to locally strong N to NW winds and renew very rough seas offshore of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro Mon through midweek. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE to E gap winds are noted via scatterometer satellite data in the Gulf of Papagayo today. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell prevail over the regional waters. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through Mon, with winds pulsing to strong speeds Tue through much of this week, and rough seas are expected to accompany these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama this week. Looking ahead, rough seas in N swell may develop well offshore of Guatemala by Wed, prompted by gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, a set of NW swell may build seas to 8 ft or greater SSW of the Galapagos Islands on Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on a series of significant NW swell sets, which will impact much of the open waters this week. Away from the significant swell impacting much of the open waters, recent scatterometer data indicate that moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring south of the surface trough to north of the ITCZ. Farther north, a new cold front over the northwest waters extends from 30N130.5W to 25.5N140W, and moderate to fresh, with pockets of locally strong, N to NE winds are noted north of this front. A significant N to NW swell is occurring with this front, and seas in excess of 20 ft are noted on altimeter and buoy data in this region. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in mixed NW and SW swell prevail over the rest of the waters. For the forecast, a series of NW swell sets will continue to impact much of the open waters for the next several days associated with the passage of several cold fronts. Currently, a trough extends from 30N117.5W to 22N133W. Very rough seas of 12 to 20 ft are noted on recent altimeter and buoy data as far south as 11N, with the highest seas occurring offshore of Baja California. Widespread rough seas of 8 to 11 ft are observed on altimeter data north of the equator and west of 110W. The period of this swell is 16 to 20 seconds. A cold front over the northwestern waters, located from 30N130.5W to 25.5N140W, is ushering in a reinforcing NW swell. Recent buoy and altimeter data indicate that peak seas of 18 to 20 ft in a 14 to 16 second period are occurring in this region. These seas will spread southeastward through early this week. Another cold front will lead to a renewed NW swell and fresh to strong N to NE winds in the northern waters later this week.