Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Aug 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 07N to 18N with axis near 111W, moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 16N between 105W and 115W. A tropical wave extends from 09N to 16N with axis near 120W, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is active from 05N to 15N between 115W and 125W. A tropical wave extends from 08N to 18N with axis near 140W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is active from 03N to 16N between 134W and 144W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N77W to 09N85W to 07N90W. The ITCZ begins near 07N93W to 06N105W to 08N110W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, numerous moderate to strong convection is offshore Panama and Colombia, and from 02N to 16N between 126W and 135W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 16N between 96W and 105W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong N gap winds prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, reaching about 13N. Rough seas to 9 ft are associated with these strong gap winds. Moderate NW winds are noted off Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro while moderate to fresh SE winds blow along the northern and central Gulf of California. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle and seas slight to moderate in SW swell. Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, seas are 4-5 ft except for 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed morning. The pressure gradient between high pressure NW of the area and lower pressure over the Colorado River Valley will support moderate to fresh southerly winds across the southern and northern Gulf of California through Thu night. Elsewhere, a moderate pressure gradient will support mostly gentle to moderate winds across the remainder offshore waters of Mexico along with moderate seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to near gale-force NE to E gap winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo. The plume of these winds extend as far west as 91W, and associated seas are 8-12 ft. Moderate to fresh N gap winds are also active across the Gulf of Panama extending to 06N with 3-5 ft seas. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos, winds are gentle to moderate with 3-6 ft seas. Elsewhere, mostly gentle breezes and 4-5 ft seas are noted in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region through Thu night, reaching near gale- force speed tonight and Mon night. The gap wind event will produce a fetch of moderate to locally fresh easterlies across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Moderate to fresh NNE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Tue. Moderate or weaker southerly winds and moderate seas will continue across the offshores between Ecuador and the Galapagos through the forecast period. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are forecast elsewhere through Thu night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1027 mb high near 36N142W extends a ridge across the subtropical E Pacific waters to nearly 115W. The gradient of pressure between this area of high pressure and a tropical wave with axis near 139W is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds from 07N to 24N W of 120W. Seas over these waters are 7-8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, persistent fresh trade winds west of 120W will maintain moderate to rough seas through the forecast period. The tropical wave located several hundred miles SW of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by midweek while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward across the western portion of the East Pacific. Also, an area of low pressure could form well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico by the middle of next week. Only limited development of this system is anticipated thereafter as it moves generally west- northwestward.