Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Oct 1 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 19.4N 109.3W at 01/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Seas of 12 ft or more are estimated within 210 NM N semicircle...330 NM SE quadrant and 180 NM SW quadrant with seas to 36 ft. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel will continue to move away from mainland Mexico and pass south of the Baja California Peninsula today. Swells generated by Rachel will affect the southwestern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days and spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the end of the week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for more details. Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is centered near 15.3N 124.6W at 01/0900 UTC, moving east at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Seas to 10 ft are expected within 60 NM N semicircle. The depression could become a remnant low later today before dissipating by Friday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Rachel and T.D. Nineteen-E. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from the western Caribbean along 88W and N of 04N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 10N between 84W and 90W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 17N100W, then resumes W of Rachel near 16N110W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 300 NM S of the trough. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Rachel is impacting the area between Cabo Corrientes, Socorro Island, south of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Fresh to strong SW to W winds and rough seas also persist off southern Mexico, impacting the coast from Colima to Oaxaca. Large swell from Rachel is impacting the waters off Baja California Sur and the southern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, moderate northwest to north winds are offshore the Baja California Peninsula north of Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle winds and slight seas over the central and northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 19.6N 109.8W this afternoon, 19.8N 110.4W Fri morning, 19.9N 111.1W Fri afternoon, 20.2N 112.1W Sat morning, 20.4N 113.2W Sat afternoon, and 20.5N 114.3W Sun morning. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to 20.6N 116.5W by early Mon. Elsewhere, strong winds and rough seas will prevail in the Tehuantepec region through Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle breezes and slight seas persist off the remainder of Central America. Moderate SE to S winds and 5 to 6 ft seas in a mix of swell are noted off Colombia and Ecuador. For the forecast, a light pressure gradient will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with mostly moderate seas through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel and T.D. Nineteen-E. The remnants of Odalys are analyzed as a trough, extending from 21N126W to 17N128W. Elsewhere, and away from the tropical cyclones, fresh northeast winds and rough seas in a mix of swell are ongoing north of 18N and west of 125W. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Nineteen-E will move to 15.4N 122.9W this afternoon, become a remnant low and move to 15.2N 120.1W Fri morning, and dissipate Fri afternoon. Fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas will persist south of Rachel from 05N to 15N east of 125W.