Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Mar 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from low pressure in northern Colombia southwestward to 08N78W and to 06N87W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 150 nm of the ITCZ between 116W-136W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Light to gentle northwest to north winds are over the waters west of Baja California, and light and variable winds over the remainder of the offshore waters W of Tehuantepec. Seas are in the range of 4 to 6 ft in northwest swell over the offshore waters west of Baja California, and 3 to 4 ft over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. In the Tehuantepec region, fresh to strong northerly winds prevail with seas to 8 ft. Latest scatterometer satellite data pass confirmed the presence of these winds. In the Gulf of California, winds are generally light and variable except in the central part of the Gulf where gentle west winds are present. Seas are 3 ft or less in the Gulf. For the forecast, high pressure west of Baja California will continue to support light and variable winds over the offshore waters through the forecast period. Northwest swell will build seas to 9 ft north of Punta Eugenia Thu through Fri night before subsiding. Fresh to strong north gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse nightly through the rest of the week with rough seas. A frontal boundary will move across the Gulf of America this weekend. The pressure gradient in the Tehuantepec region will tighten leading to gale-force northerly winds there north of 14N beginning Sat night. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The gradient associated to relatively weak high pressure over the western Atlantic is inducing fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region as noted in latest scatterometer satellite data. Seas with these winds are 4 to 6 ft. Farther east, moderate north to northeast winds are in the Gulf of Panama reaching southward to near 06N. Seas are 3 to 5 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region will pulse nightly going into the upcoming weekend along with moderate to rough seas. Moderate to occasionally fresh north to northeast winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama during this time. Gentle breezes and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between modest high pressure north of 16N and west of 121W, and lower pressure near the ITCZ is currently sustaining mostly moderate trades from 04N to 19N between 127W and 139W, and from 04N to 13N between 113W and 127W as depicted in overnight scatterometer satellite data passes. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over these waters. Elsewhere, overnight scatterometer satellite data indicates light to gentle northeast to east winds. Seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere primarily due to a long-period northwest to north swell. The tail-end of a cold front just touches 30N140W, and stretches well southwestward from there as a dissipating stationary front. For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will develop north of about 26N and west of 119W Thu through Fri as the pressure gradient tightens between a ridge building southward across the north-central waters, and a low pressure system, with attendant trough lifting northward west of the area near 145W. Seas are expected to build to 8 to 10 ft over this part of the area.