Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Nov 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing over the northwestern Caribbean extends southwestward across northern portions of Central America and into the tropical eastern Pacific. This feature will interact with enhanced low- level moisture and onshore flow south of the monsoon trough over the next several days. This will favor heavy precipitation developing across Central America starting today and lasting through at least Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected across Nicaragua and Costa Rica, with the bulk of precipitation occurring through Thursday. Heavy rainfall may lead to life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your local weather agency and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more details. Low pressure offshore Nicaragua: A broad area of low pressure is producing a large area of disorganized showers offshore Central America. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the low drifts northward. Regardless of development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America through this weekend. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to the low pressure offshore Nicaragua of 1008 mb near 10N93W to a 1011 mb low pressure near 07N113W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 13N E of 92W, from 00N to 12N between 107W and 121W, and from 05N to 14N between 131W and 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate NW winds are present in the offshore waters of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro due to high pressure N of the region. Seas in these waters are 7 to 9 ft. Moderate gap winds have also developed in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, across the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds prevail, with moderate seas in mainly SW swell, mixed with NW swell west of 110W, and except for the Gulf of California, where slight seas dominate. Large NW swell will impact the Baja waters into tonight. The next pulse of large NW swell will reach the Baja waters beginning Fri. Fresh winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California and near Cabo Corrientes starting Fri and continue through the weekend. Looking ahead, fresh to strong northerly gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri night, increasing Sun night as a cold front moves into the SW Gulf of America, with gales possible Mon night. A set of large and rough NW swell is likely to approach Baja California Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... See Special Features section above for information on low pressure offshore Nicaragua that has potential for tropical development as well as a heavy rainfall threat over portions of Central America. A zone of moderate S winds is noted ESE of this low. Otherwise, winds are light to gentle, with moderate seas. For the forecast, the broad area of low pressure offshore Central America has the possibility of gradual development during the next several days, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the low drifts northward. Regardless of development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America through this weekend. There is a medium chance of tropical formation over the next 48 hours. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between high pressure building in from the north and lower pressure along the monsoon trough is leading to widespread fresh NE to E winds across waters N of the monsoon trough and west of 125W, locally strong near 15N135W. Long period NW swell and wind-waves are combining to create rough seas over the same area. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail, with moderate seas. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades will prevail over the west-central waters through the end of the week. Reinforcing NW swell will start to arrive today, keeping seas rough. Additional NW swell will keep moving in through the weekend and into early next week. Looking ahead, merging NW and SE swell is likely to produce 8 to 9 ft seas close to the equator by late Fri into the weekend, possibly lingering into early next week.