Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jun 1 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Broad low pressure of 1008 mb, EP90, centered along the monsoon trough near 09N126W, well SW of the southern tip of Baja California, is producing numerous disorganized moderate convection from 08N to 12N between 120W and 130W. Environmental conditions appear conductive for development, and a tropical depression is expected to from during the middle part of the week while moving westward or west-northwestward at around 10 kt across the western portion of the East Pacific. This low has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance over the next 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at wwww.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern portion of a tropical wave has an axis along 82W, N of 05N, moving W at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted N of 05N and E of 87W in association with this wave, impacting waters near Panama. A tropical wave has its axis along 108W from 05N to 15N, moving W at around 5 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 103W and 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N82W to 10N110W to 1008 mb low pressure near 09N126W to 06N140W. Aside from convection near the trough already depicted in the Special Features and Tropical Waves section above, scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm S of the trough between 130W and 133W and from 05N to 11N between 111W and 114W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends into the region to just NW of the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough along the Gulf of California is producing moderate NW to N winds across the Baja California offshore waters. NW swell is producing seas to 9 ft over the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. Inside the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail, except for 3 to 6 ft seas in SW swell near the entrance. For the remainder of the offshore waters, light to gentle winds dominate along with 5 to 7 ft seas primarily in long- period S to SW swell, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, NW swell will propagate through the offshore waters of Baja California Norte through Fri night, bringing rough seas. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form offshore southern Mexico late this week or over the weekend, and environmental conditions appear favorable for some tropical development of this system as it moves W to WNW at 5 to 10 kt. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly light and variable winds are over the Central American offshore waters under a weak pressure pattern along with moderate seas of 5 to 7 ft in long-period S to SW swell. The exception is moderate gap winds in the Papagayo region. Gentle south to southeast winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in long- period SW swell are over the waters S of the monsoon trough over the waters between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. For the forecast, the weak pressure pattern will provide for generally light to gentle winds through the period, except for nocturnal pulses of moderate to fresh gap winds across the Papagayo region. Moderate seas in SW swell will prevail. Long period SW swell is forecast to enter the southern Galapagos adjacent waters Tue night and begin to subside Thu afternoon. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form offshore Central America late this week or over the weekend, and environmental conditions appear favorable for some tropical development of this system as it moves W to WNW at 5 to 10 kt. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on low pressure in the western basin along the monsoon trough that is expected to become a tropical depression later this week. High pressure dominates waters N of the monsoon trough, with the pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E trade winds N of the monsoon trough. Seas over these waters are in the 7 to 9 ft range in a mix of trade wind waves and NW to N swell. Gentle to locally moderate winds are S of the monsoon trough. Seas over these waters are generally 7 to 9 ft in S to SW swell. Aside from the possible tropical cyclone as mentioned above, the high pressure will lift northward allowing for winds to weaken. However, a continuation of a mixture of southerly and northwesterly long-period swell combined with trade wind waves will lead to occasional rough seas through late week.