Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Feb 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N85W to 00N100W to 02N110W. The ITCZ extends from 03N115W to 03N130W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection extends from 01N to 03N between 85W and 95W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gale-force gap winds diminished earlier today across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, but strong to near- gale force winds and 8 to 11 ft seas persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate breezes persist elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico. Seas are 5 to 7 ft overall, except 2 to 3 ft seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong SW winds will pulse across the northern Gulf of California Tue ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. The front will slowly dissipate as it moves into Baja California Norte Wed into Thu. Large NW swell will follow the swell into the waters off Baja California Norte Wed and Wed night, and in the outer waters off Baja California Sur north of Cabo San Lazaro Wed night into Thu. Looking ahead, another front will approach Baja California Fri followed by fresh NW winds and large swell near Guadalupe Island. Farther south, fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight into Tue, and then again late Wed into Thu. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gale-force gap winds diminished this morning across the Gulf of Papagayo, but a recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed a large area of strong to near-gale force gap winds persist across the region. It also showed a stream of gap winds emitting from the Gulf of Fonseca area, and across the Gulf of Panama. Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the Gulf of Papagayo area, and 4 to 6 ft elsewhere in a mix of swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas will persist across the Gulf of Papagayo region through mid week, with seas not appreciably subsiding until Sat. Moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... An upper trough extends from central Baja California to an upper low pressure area centered over 10N120W. Divergent flow aloft near this feature is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms from 10N to 15N between 105W and 115W, and under the cold core of the upper low near 10N120W. An associated surface trough is analyzed along 115W from 06N to 15N. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong NE winds along this trough, southwest of Clipperton Island. Farther west, the scatterometer pass also confirmed fresh to strong NE trade winds extending north of the ITCZ to near 20N, west of 125W. Farther north, the scatterometer captured a small circulation near 33N133W, which is the parent low accompanying a cold front moving west to east across the discussion waters north of 25N west of 130W. Fresh to strong NW winds and large NW swell follow the front. The swell is reinforcing an area of older swell in excess of 8 ft covering most of the area west of 130W. For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move eastward across the waters north of 20N toward Baja California through mid week. This will in turn allow the fresh to strong trade winds in the deep tropics west of 125W to diminish through tonight. The associated rough seas will subside accordingly. Meanwhile, fresh to strong NW winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front as it continues westward and reaches a position from 30N125W to 21N140W early Tue. The winds will diminish through Tue night, but large shorter-period NW swell of 8 to 11 ft will cover the area north of 25N and west of 120W before decaying below 8 ft through mid week. Looking ahead, a low pressure area and associated cold front will move westward across the waters north of 20N Wed through Fri, followed by another round of strong winds and rough to very rough seas.