Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Apr 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from 08N78W to 11N94W to 08N113W. The ITCZ extends from 08N113W to 10N125W to 05N140W. A second ITCZ is to the south, extending from 03.4S110W to 03.4S120W and beyond. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is active from 02N to 08N between 81W and 95W, from 01.5S to 03.4S between 108W and 120W, and from 09N to 21N between 110W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Ridging off Baja California combined with troughing over NW Mexico supports moderate to fresh winds off the peninsula per earlier ASCAT scatterometer data, with moderate winds in the central Gulf of California. Winds are mainly gentle elsewhere. Combined seas are 5-7 ft off Baja California, 3-5 ft off southwest and southern Mexico, and 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, ridging will build over the area through early week. The pattern will support moderate to fresh northwest winds over the Baja California waters, except for moderate to fresh to occasionally strong winds funneling along the coast of Baja California Sur between between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia through the remainder of the morning. Elsewhere, mostly light to gentle west to northwest winds are expected through the week. Moderate to fresh winds may develop in the central and southern Gulf of California by the middle of the week as the pressure gradient tightens slightly, then pulsing to fresh to strong from near Punta Eugenia southward by early Thu into Thu evening. Similar winds will pulse in the central and southern Gulf of California then as well. Looking ahead, a northerly gap wind event is possible late in the upcoming weekend. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle variable winds and 3-6 ft combined seas prevail north of the Equator. Gentle to moderate SE winds prevail south of the Equator, within 5-7 ft seas in S to SW swell. For the forecast, a light gradient will maintain rather tranquil conditions over the Central American and Colombian waters through the week while moderate to fresh southeast winds and moderate long-period south to southwest swell remain offshore Ecuador. Seas will subside slightly by the end of the week into the weekend. Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo in the early mornings Tue through Thu, and also in the Gulf of Panama tonight through Thu night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The ridge north of the ITCZ is disrupted by a trough extending from 26N126W to 18N131W as captured by earlier ASCAT scatterometer data. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are found north of the ITCZ to 21N west of 120W also seen by ASCAT. Mainly light to gentle winds are elsewhere across the open waters. Seas are 6-8 ft in mixed SE and NW swell south of the Equator, and 4-7 ft across the remainder of the waters. For the forecast, a rather weak high pressure across the region along with persistent troughing over the northwest waters will generally maintain moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds from the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W. Combined seas will be in the range of 5-7 ft over the western part of the area and 4-6 ft elsewhere, except near 8 ft along 03.4S through the early part of the week. Seas may build slightly over the waters north of 10N and west of 120W by the middle of the week in new swells.