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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Sep 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 12.9N 99.8W, or about 150 nm southwest of Cabo San Lazaro, Mexico at 28/0300 UTC, moving north at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Peak seas are near 39 ft (12 M). The satellite depict its cloud pattern as a little asymmetric, with the coldest cloud tops currently located over the western half of the circulation. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm of the center in the NE quadrant, 30 nm of the center in the SE quadrant, 90 nm of the center in the SW quadrant and 180 nm of the center in the NW quadrant. Polo should maintain its current motion for next several hours, followed by a turn toward the northeast on Monday. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach the west coast of Baja California Sur on Mon, move across the peninsula Monday night and then approach northwestern mainland Mexico by earl on Tue. Polo is forecast to be at or near major hurricane strength when it reaches Baja California Sur on Mon, and it is expected to be a hurricane when it makes landfall in mainland Mexico early on Tue. Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches with maximum amounts of 12 inches across portions of Baja California Sur. Rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches with maximum totals of 8 expected across portions of Sonora. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf Swells generated by Polo will continue affecting the coast of southwestern Mexico, west-central Mexico, and Baja California Sur during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Storm Rachel is centered near 12.9N 99.8W, or about 240 nm south of Acapulco, Mexico at 28/0300 UTC, moving west at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are to 15 ft (4.5 m). The last few visible satellite images showed that Rachel has a broad center. Numerous strong convection is within 120 nm of the center in the S semicircle. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 06N to 15N between 98W and 106W. Rachel is forecast to attain a faster west-northwestward motion during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is expected to remain well offshore of the coast of southern Mexico. However, tropical storm conditions are possible along the coast of Mexico within the tropical storm watch area by Tue. Swells generated by Rachel will begin affecting portions of southern coast of Mexico during the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A Gale Warning remains in effect for the remnant low of Odalys located near 23N114W with a pressure of 1000 mb. Gale winds of 30 to 40 kt with the low are forecast to dimnish to just below gale-force in a few hours. Seas are 10 to 17 ft with the gale winds. They will begin to gradually starting late tonight into Mon morning. Satellite imagery shows that the low is devoid of deep convection. A slow northeastward motion is expected through tonight, followed by a turn to the south, or south-southwest on Mon, then dissipate by around midweek. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Polo and Rachel. A broad area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing numerous strong convection from 12N to 15N between 134W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection if from 05N to 12N west of 134W. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the system is becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two. The system should move generally northeastward and remain well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. This system has a high chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance over the next week. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to across the southwestern Caribbean Sea and to across southern Nicaragua, then to 11N85W and to 12N92W, where it pauses. IT resumes to the southwest of Polo at 15N120W and continues to 13N123W to Invest EP91 NEAR 12N137W and to beyond 11N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 07N to 12N between 120W-131W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Polo and on Tropical Storm Rachel. The impacts from these systems will be over a good majority of the forecast waters. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are offshore the Baja California Peninsula and light to gentle winds elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Light to gentle winds are in the Gulf of California. Moderate seas remain over the offshore waters and the southern Gulf of California, with slight seas in the central and northern gulf sections. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near 24.1N 113.7W Mon morning, to near 25.9N 112.4W Mon evening, then move inland and weaken to a tropical storm over northwest Mexico Tue morning, weaken to a tropical depression Tue evening, and dissipate Wed morning. Tropical Storm Rachel is near 12.9N 99.8W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Rachel will move to near 13.3N 100.9W Mon morning, to near 14.2N 102.6W Mon evening, to near 15.2N 104.3W Tue morning, then strengthen to a hurricane with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt near 16.4N 106.0W Tue evening. Rachel is forecast to move to near 17.5N 107.2W Wed morning and to near 18.4N 108.2W Wed evening. Rachel is forecast to move to near 19.1N 109.0W late Thu with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt. Hazardous marine conditions will be impacting the majority of the Mexican offshore waters through the forecast period. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh east to southeast winds are offshore Guatemala. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in southwest swell over the western part of the Guatemala offshore waters. Otherwise, a rather light gradient is maintaining mostly gentle winds across these waters. Moderate seas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near the Gulf of Panama. For the forecast, the light pressure gradient will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with mostly moderate seas through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Polo, Tropical Storm Rachel, on Gale Warning for Post-Tropical Cyclone Odalys, and on a broad area low pressure in the far western waters that has potential for tropical cyclone formation this week. Away from the tropical cyclones, the gradient between high pressure over the northwest portion of the area and Odalys has led to fresh northeast winds covering the waters west of a line from about 30N120W to 19N132W to the area of the broad low pressure in the western part of the domain. Mostly gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere. The tropical cyclones have generated a broad area of rough seas N of 09N, with moderate seas to the south. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to near 24.1N 113.7W Mon morning, to near 25.9N 112.4W Mon evening, then move inland and weaken to a tropical storm over northwest Mexico Tue morning, weaken to a tropical depression Tue evening, and dissipate Wed morning. Tropical Storm Rachel will reach near 13.3N 100.9W Mon morning, to near 14.2N 102.6W Mon evening, to near 15.2N 104.3W Tue morning, then strengthen to a hurricane with maximum sustained winds 70 kt gusts 85 kt near 16.4N 106.0W Tue evening. Rachel is forecast to move to near 17.5N 107.2W Wed morning and to near 18.4N 108.2W Wed evening. Rachel is forecast to move to near 19.1N 109.0W late Thu with maximum sustained winds 85 kt gusts 105 kt. A broad area of low pressure located well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing numerous strong convection from 12N to 15N between 134W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection if from 05N to 12N west of 134W. Recent satellite-derived wind data indicate that the system is becoming better organized. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next day or two. The system should move generally northeastward and remain well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands. This system has a high chance of tropical formation within the next 48 hours and a high chance over the next week.