Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jul 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions remain favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the early to middle part of the week while the system moves generally west-northwestward, well off the coast of Mexico. This system is along a tropical wave with axis along 98W/99W. Recent scatterometer data indicate increasing winds across the area, particularly from 11N to 16N between 95W and 98W. However, some of these winds could be associated with the strongest convection there. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 98W/99W, and extends northward over SE Mexico, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 91W AND 100W. The axis of a tropical wave is along 131W/132W from 06N to 18N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. A 1008 mb low pressure is analyzed along the wave axis near 13N131.5W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 128W and 135W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 07N87W to 10N97W to 06N110W to 07N115W, then resumes W of a trough located along 120W near 11N124W and continues along 13N131.5W to 07N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate isolated strong convection can be found from 02N to 07N E of 82W to the coast of Colombia, from 11N to 17N between 100W and 105W, and from 07N to 11N W of 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting light to gentle winds with moderate seas in mixed swell. Similar wind speeds are also noted in the Gulf of California where slight seas prevail, except near the entrance to the Gulf where seas are in the 3 to 4 ft range. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with moderate seas. An area of fresh to strong winds extends from the coast of Oaxaca to about 11N between 95W and 98W. Over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, winds are gentle to moderate from the NW and seas are generally moderate, primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through early Thu, allowing for gentle to moderate NW to N winds to continue along with moderate seas in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail during this period. A surface trough moving across the Bay of Campeche will support pulses of fresh to strong winds in the Tehuantepec region Mon and Tue, then mainly moderate to fresh winds are expected through Thu. Otherwise, a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of moderate to fresh winds across the Papagayo region and downwind to about 89W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region mainly at night through Fri night along with moderate to rough seas. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas are forecast to impact the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala tonight and Mon as a broad area of low pressure persists several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands where slight seas are expected. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge prevails across the waters N of 20N W of 110W. Under the influence of the ridge, mainly light to gentle winds are observed with moderate seas in mixed swell. S of 20N, there are two tropical waves and surface trough. The surface trough runs from 18N118W to 12N120W to 06N121W. A few showers are near the trough axis. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with moderate seas. For the forecast: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring several areas with the potential for tropical cyclone development across the eastern and central Pacific. Three of those disturbances are located in the eastern Pacific region. One is a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico that continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. The second one is an area of low pressure located well west-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula that continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms primarily east of its center. Some additional development of this system is possible over the next day or so before it moves west-northwestward into a less favorable environment. Currently, the Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and also through 7 days. An area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of this week several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system later this week, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week while it moves generally west- northwestward well offshore of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.