Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Aug 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 112W and extends from 07N to 18N, moving westward at about 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the wave axis from 10N to 14N between 109W and 113W. A tropical wave is along 122W and extends from 07N to 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. A large area of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 11N110W to 10N130W to 10N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 16N between 125W and 134W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 02N to 06N between 78W and 85W, from 10N to 15.5N between 97W and 112W, and from 08N to 13N W of 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Latest scatterometer data provided observations of fresh to strong N winds across the Tehuantepec area and downwind to near 14.5N. Rough seas to 8 ft are associated with these gap winds. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds N of Cabo San Lazaro, and light to gentle winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are blowing across the central Gulf of California while moderate to locally fresh south winds are observed elsewhere. Light to gentle winds are occurring across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, seas are 3 to 5 ft. In the Gulf of California, seas are 1 to 3 ft, with the exception of 3 to 5 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue morning. The pressure gradient between high pressure NW of the area and lower pressure over the Colorado River Valley will support moderate to fresh southerly winds across the northern Gulf of California through Wed. Elsewhere, a moderate pressure gradient will promote mostly gentle to moderate winds across the remainder offshore waters of Mexico along with moderate seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo. The plume of these winds extend as far west as 91W/92W at night, and associated seas are 8 to 10 ft. Moderate to locally fresh N gap winds are also active across the Gulf of Panama extending to 06N with 3 to 5 ft seas. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate with seas of 3 to 5 ft in SW swell. Elsewhere, mostly gentle breezes and 4 to 5 ft seas are noted in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region through Tue morning, reaching near gale- force speed at night. The gap wind event will produce a fetch of moderate to locally fresh easterlies with seas of 6 to 8 ft across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Moderate to fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Tue. Moderate or weaker southerly winds and moderate seas will continue across the offshores between Ecuador and the Galapagos through the forecast period. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are forecast elsewhere through Thu night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1027 mb high pressure located near 38N141W extends a ridge across the northern forecast waters N of 18N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between this feature and lower pressures along the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds from 10N to 20N W of 130W. Seas over these waters are 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, persistent fresh trade winds west of 120W will maintain moderate to rough seas through the forecast period. The tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward across the western portion of the East Pacific. Also, an area of low pressure could form well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico by the middle part of the week. Little, if any, development is anticipated while it moves generally west-northwestward.