Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected

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Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jun 27 2026 Corrected ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 89W north of 05N to inland Honduras and Belize. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the southern portion of the wave and where the wave crosses the monsoon trough. A tropical wave has its axis along 97W north of 08N to inland southeastern Mexico. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Numerous to isolated strong convection is west of the wave to near 106W from 10N to 15N. A tropical wave has its axis along 115W from 08N to 19N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Convection associated with this wave has diminished during the past few hours. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen west of this wave to near 118W from 11N to 17N. Scattered moderate convection is east of the wave to near 108W from 12N to 17N. Scatterometer satellite data has fresh to strong east to southeast winds east of this wave to near 110W. Seas are 7 to 9 ft with these winds. A tropical wave is analyzed from 22N132W to 17N135W and to 12N136W. A weak 1012 mb low is along the axis near 20N as observed on satellite imagery. These features are moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH...Corrected The monsoon trough extends from low pressure of 1007 mb in northwest Colombia, west-southwestward through central Panama and west-northwestward through southern Costa Rica. From there it reaches the coast at 09N84W and continues to 07N96W, then northwestward to 12N114W and southwestward to 08N120W and to 06N125W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N132W and to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N to 07N west of 136W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 09N between 104W-111W, also within 180 nm south of the trough between 116W-121W, and within 120 nm north of the trough between 91W-97W. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm south of the trough and the ITCZ between 123W-128W, and within 60 nm south of the trough between 98W-100W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure difference between high pressure ridging over the Gulf of America and lower pressure in southeastern Mexico, southward to the monsoon trough over the eastern Pacific is supporting fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas of 8 to 9 ft have been churned up by these winds. In the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are over the northern portion east of 114W due to a tighter gradient there between the thermal trough and somewhat relatively higher pressure in western Mexico. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the Gulf, except for slightly higher seas of 3 to 5 ft in the southern portion. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in long- period south to southwest swell. For the forecast, the fresh to strong north to northeast gap winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through late Sun morning. Elsewhere, winds and seas across the Mexican offshore waters should be calm through early next week. Northwest swell is expected to move into the far northern waters off Baja California Norte beginning early on Mon, and perhaps linger into Tue afternoon. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast gap winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo and off the southern coast of Nicaragua. Latest scatterometer satellite data shows seas of 8 to 9 ft downstream of these winds, namely from 09N to 11N between 87W and 91W. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in long- period southerly swell over the equatorial waters as detected by multiple altimeter satellite data passes, and 5 to 6 ft in southwest swell over the remainder of the offshore waters. For the forecast, the pressure difference between high pressure north of the area and relatively lower pressure in the tropics will support fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Papagayo through early Tue. These conditions may spread as far west as 105W through Sun night before diminishing. Farther south, large southerly swell moving into the equatorial waters will continue through early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak 1012 mb low is centered along the western most tropical wave near 20N133W. Fresh to strong northeast winds prevail north of the low to 23N and between 130W and 140W. Seas with these winds are 8 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, broad ridging dominates the remainder of the area north of 20N. The moderate pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough/ITCZ is resulting in moderate to fresh trade winds from 10N to 28N west of 126W, and from 11N to 21N between 115W and 126W. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are within 120 nm north and northeast of the low due to a tight pressure gradient between the low and high pressure to the north. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over these waters, except for higher seas 6 to 9 ft from 15N to 20N west of 130W due to the combination of long-period north to northeast swell with trade wind generated waves. Elsewhere, winds across the open Pacific waters are moderate or weaker. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in mixed north and southwest swell. For the forecast, the tropical wave near 115W is forecast to undergo possible gradual development during the next few days and a tropical depression could form around the middle of next week while the wave moves generally westward to west-northwestward. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development by the second half of the week as the system moves over the western portion of the eastern North Pacific. Outside of this system, little change in winds are expected for the next several days. Large southerly swell moving through the far south-central waters is expected to begin to decay during the early part of the upcoming week.