Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jul 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Recently downgraded Tropical Storm Genevieve is centered near 21.3N 126.0W at 31/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are near 31 ft or 9.5 m. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 90 nm in the SW semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere from 19N to 26N between 122W and 130W. Genevieve is expected to gradually weaken while continuing on a west- northwest track during the next few days. The system is forecast to become post- tropical late this weekend, and weaken to a remnant low early next week. Swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the Baja California Peninsula and Southern California. These swells will persist for the next several days, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?ripCurrents Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Genevieve NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 80W, N of 02N into the Western Caribbean, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 111W, from 03N to 19N, moving westward around 10 kt. Isolated to widely scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 22N between 108W and 118W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 07N90W. The ITCZ extends from 07N91W to 07N110W. A monsoon trough segment extends from southwest of Genevieve at 14N130W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 80W and 88W, from 04N to 15N between 100W and 108W, and from 02N to 14N between 133W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh N gap winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail. Seas are slight in the Gulf of California and moderate in the remaining offshore waters. For the forecast, increasing NW swell may lead to rough seas again offshore Baja California Norte Sun night and Mon. Fresh to locally strong gap winds are likely in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, then moderate to fresh Fri night. Moderate to fresh NW winds are expected to pulse tonight and Fri night nearshore Baja California. Elsewhere, fresh SE to S winds may pulse nightly in the northern Gulf of California beginning tonight, possibly to strong Sat night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeasterly gap winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate to locally fresh gap wind are in the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to moderate seas are noted between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through Sun, with occasionally rough seas. Moderate to fresh winds will then pulse thereafter. Pulsing moderate to locally fresh N winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama tonight. Southerly winds may freshen offshore southern Colombia and from Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands tonight and Fri. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected across the remainder of the waters through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on recently downgraded Tropical Storm Genevieve. For waters not being impacted by Genevieve, high pressure is centered just northwest of the area. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and Genevieve is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds to the north and west of Genevieve. Seas in this region are in the 7 to 9 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the remainder of the discussion waters. Moderate seas also dominate the remainder of the waters. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Genevieve will move to 21.8N 128.0W Fri morning, 22.5N 130.7W Fri evening, 23.3N 133.5W Sat morning, 24.1N 136.4W Sat evening, 25.0N 139.2W Sun morning, and become post-tropical and move to 26.1N 141.5W Sun evening. Away from Genevieve, little change in marine conditions is forecast through the weekend. Fresh and rough northerly swell off California is likely to push southward into the waters off Baja California Norte north of 27N and east of 130W by the end of the weekend into early next week. New large southerly swell may build south of the Equator and west of 100W beginning Tue night.