Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Oct 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Trudy is centered near 14.6N 102.5W at 16/1500 UTC, moving north-northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 956 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Max seas are around 28 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong conveciton is occurring from 22N-27N between 98W-104W. A north-northwestward to northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed is forecast during the next few days. On the forecast track, the center of Trudy will approach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico on Saturday and pass near the coast Saturday night into Sunday. Strengthening is expected through Saturday, and Trudy is forecast to remain a major hurricane when it makes its closest approach to Mexico. Weakening is predicted later this weekend and into early next week. Swells generated by Trudy are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward toward west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Storm Simon is centered near 20.6N 109.5W at 16/1500 UTC, moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 8 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 20N-22N between 108W-112W. This general motion is expected to prevail through the weekend. Weakening is expected, and Simon is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Saturday. Swells generated by Simon could affect portions of the coast of west-central Mexico and Baja California Sur during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Simon and Trudy. Gale Warning: A Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is starting today. This early-season Tehuanteper should reach gale-force northerlies tonight and likely persist through Mon, before gradually diminishing on Tue. Peak winds should be around 40 kt from Sat afternoon through Sun night with largest seas near 15 ft. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from coastal Costa Rica near 10N86W to 10N95W. It begins again near 10N100W and extends to 00N130W. The ITCZ begins at 00N130W and goes to beyond 01N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 00N-09N east of 89W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 03N-08N between 100W-119W and from 02N-02N between 130W-138W.. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Trudy and Tropical Storm Simon. Also, on the Gale Warning issued for the Gulf of Tehuantepec for this weekend. Outside of the areas described in the Special Features section, fresh to near gale NW winds are occurring over the N Gulf of California. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 5-7 ft over the Pacific waters and 3-5 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Hurricane Trudy will move to 15.3N 102.9W this evening, 16.6N 103.8W Sat morning, 18.1N 104.8W Sat evening, 19.6N 105.8W Sun morning very close to Cabo Corrientes, 20.7N 106.4W Sun evening, and 21.2N 107.1W Mon morning. Trudy will weaken to a tropical storm over 21.7N 108.1W early Tue over the entrance to the Gulf of California. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Simon will weaken to a tropical depression near 21.6N 110.9W this evening south of Cabo San Lucas, become a remnant low and move to 22.7N 112.7W Sat morning, 24.0N 114.6W Sat evening, and dissipate Sun morning. In addition to the hurricane and tropical storm, a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is starting today. This early-season Tehuanteper should reach gale-force northerlies tonight and likely persist through Mon, before gradually diminishing on Tue. Finally looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression could form during the latter half of next week while it moves generally westward to west- northwestward over the eastern and central portions of the East Pacific. Formation chance through 48 hours is low, while formation chance through 7 days is medium. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds are moderate or weaker over forecast waters this morning. Seas are 5-7 ft in SW swell. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 00N-09N east of 89W. For the forecast, a strong early-season Tehuantepecer gap wind event will cause fresh to locally strong NE winds over the W portion of the Guatemala and El Salvador zone Sat night and Sun. Large to very large seas from mixed NW swell from the Tehuantepecer and SW swell from the Southern Hemisphere will also impact this zone from Sat night through early next week. Large SW swell is impacting the equatorial zones now through Sun. Finally, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to impact the offshore waters from Guatemala through Colombia over at least the next two days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A moderate pressure gradient between a 1027 mb high at 37N133W to lower pressure over the monsoon trough/ITCZ is causing only moderate to locally fresh trades. Southwest of a line from 02S95W to 20N140W is experiencing seas 8-10 ft in S to SW swell. For the forecast, little change in winds are expected during the next several days. The large SW swell in our southern waters will gradually diminishing through early next week. A large NW swell will reach our NW corner at 30N140W tonight and reach to 25N125W by Mon while gradually diminishing.