Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Apr 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0305 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from the coast of Colombia near 05N77W to 05N103W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N103W to 03N125W and beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is found south of 10N and between 114W and 130W. Similar convection is noted from 02N to 08N and west of 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The tight pressure gradient between a 1025 mb high pressure system over the southern United States and lower pressures in the deep tropics support fresh to near gale-force northerly winds and rough seas to 10 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The fresh winds and rough seas extends downstream to 12N99W. The remainder of the Mexican offshore waters are under a weaker pressure gradient. Gentle to moderate NW winds and seas of 3-5 ft are evident in the offshore waters of Baja California, except for locally fresh winds in the nearshore waters south of Punta Eugenia. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure will support fresh to strong N winds and rough seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue afternoon. Elsewhere, a set of northwest swell will move through the waters west of Baja California Norte Tue night into Wed, but will be subsiding as it does. Seas are expected to peak to around 8 ft with this swell. Fresh to locally strong northwest winds are forecast over the Pacific waters of Baja California beginning Wed night. Northwest winds will pulse to moderate to fresh speeds at night offshore southwestern Mexico Tue through Fri. Elsewhere, mostly light to gentle west to northwest winds are expected through the end of the week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the Caribbean supports fresh to occasionally strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending downstream to 90W. Farther east, moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are occurring in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle variable winds, along with seas 4 to 7 ft due to a long-period south to southwest swell prevail. For the forecast, winds may pulse fresh to occasionally strong speeds in the Gulf of Papagayo region late tonight and Tue morning and again late Tue night into Wed morning. Similarly, winds will pulse to locally fresh in the Gulf of Panama at night tonight and Tue night. Otherwise, rather tranquil conditions are expected to continue over the Central American and the equatorial waters through the end of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening cold front continues to move across the far northwest waters, extending from 30N125W to 26N131W, then a stationary front stretches to beyond 23N140W. No significant convection is seen near this boundary. A set of long-period northwest to north swell follows the front supporting seas of 8-13 ft with the highest seas near 30N137W. Weak high pressure dominates the remainder of the area, sustaining moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 115W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the aforementioned frontal boundary will move east-southeastward, weakening Tue and dissipating Wed. The rough to very rough seas behind the front will spread southeastward over the next few days, weakening in the process. Rough seas will reach the western trade waters Wed. Little overall changes are expected with winds and seas elsewhere through Thu.