Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Oct 1 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 19.6N 109.6W at 01/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 964 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are 36 ft (11 M). Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm of center. Rachel is moving toward the west-northwest, and this west-northwest to west motion at a slightly slower forward speed is expected the next couple of days. Some additional strengthening is possible during the next couple of days. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Depression Nineteen-E is centered near 15.2N 123.3W at 01/1500 UTC, moving east at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 25 kt with gusts to 35 kt. Peak seas are 10 ft. The depression is moving toward the east, and this motion is expected to continue for another day or so. The depression should become a remnant low later today before dissipating by tomorrow. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Nineteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 90W N of 03N, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N to 10N between 80W and 96W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N86W to 17N100W, then resumes W of T.D. Nineteen-E near 11N126W to beyond 05N140W. In addition to the convection associated with Hurricane Rachel and T.D. Nineteen-E, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 10N to 14N between 110W and 125W, and from 00N to 10N W of 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. A Hurricane Warning is in effect for the offshore forecast waters from Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas, and also from 17N to 20N between 110W and 115W, including the Revillagigedo Islands. Tropical Storm conditions are expected today near the entrance to the Gulf of California. Fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas are impacting southwestern Mexico, including the area of cabo Corrientes. Large swell from Rachel is impacting the waters off Baja California Sur and the southern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, moderate northwest to north winds are offshore the Baja California Peninsula north of Cabo San Lazaro. Light to gentle winds and slight seas over the central and northern Gulf of California. Fresh to strong westerly winds are seas of 8 to 9 ft are noted in the vicinity of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, particularly from 13N to 15.5N between 93.5W and 98W. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 19.7N 110.1W this evening, 19.8N 110.8W Fri morning, 20.0N 111.5W Fri evening, 20.1N 112.5W Sat morning, 20.3N 113.6W Sat evening, and 20.4N 114.7W Sun morning. Rachel will change little in intensity as it moves to near 20.5N 117.2W early Mon. Winds and seas south of the Tehuantepec region will diminish by tonight. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle breezes and slight seas persist off the remainder of Central America. Moderate SE to S winds and 5 to 6 ft seas in a mix of swell are noted off Colombia and Ecuador. For the forecast, a light pressure gradient will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with mostly moderate seas through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel and T.D. Nineteen-E. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Nineteen-E will become a remnant low and move to 15.1N 121.4W this evening, and dissipate Fri morning.