Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Mar 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 09N85W to 05N90W. The ITCZ extends from 05N90W to 01N110W to 03N130W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 06N between 85W and 90W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 04N to 06N between 125W to 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate NW to N winds are noted off Cabo Corrientes, but light to gentle breezes dominate elsewhere across Mexican offshore waters. NW swell to 7 ft may be reaching the offshore waters to the northwest of Guadalupe Island, off Baja California Norte. Combined seas elsewhere are 4-6 ft in NW swell, except 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, large NW swell will move into the outer offshore waters off Baja California Norte near Guadalupe Island through Sun night, then will subside. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern over the region will maintain gentle to moderate breezes and and moderate seas over the open waters off Mexico, with slight to moderate seas in the Gulf of California into next week. Looking ahead, a cold front moving into southern Mexico will support gale force gap winds across the Tehuantepec region starting Mon night and persisting into mid week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to locally strong E gap winds downwind the Gulf of Papagayo, and moderate to fresh winds N gap winds across the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail. Recent altimeter satellite passes show large SW swell approaching the outer offshore waters, but combined seas are 5-7 ft in the Papagayo area and 4-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region accompanied by rough seas. Rough seas may also persist off Guatemala and El Salvador through Sun night in a mix of easterly swell from the Papagayo region and longer period SW swell. Expect rough seas in the Gulf of Panama and farther offshore through Sun night due to waves generated by fresh N winds and SW swell. The large SW will also impact offshore areas off Colombia and Ecuador through the weekend. Looking ahead, gap winds will diminish and the SW swell will subside through the early to mid portions of next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Ridging dominates the waters north of 20N, centered on 1028 mb high pressure centered north of the area of California near 37N132W. This pattern is supporting mostly gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the region. A surface trough persist south of the ridge along 130W near 05N, associated with an upper trough farther to the northwest. Scattered moderate to isolated strong thunderstorm activity is ongoing farther south along the trough. SW swell of 7-9 ft is moving across the waters south of 10N between roughly 90W and 125W. Farther west, wave heights are 6-8 ft south of 10N west of 125W in a combination of NW and SW swell and local trade wind related wind waves. Farther north, NW swell of 6-7 ft are reaching the waters north of 27N west of 120W. Combined seas are 5-7 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the rough seas in the tradewind zone will subside through tonight. Cross-equatorial SW swell will continue to bring rough seas over the waters south of 10N and east of 120W before subsiding through Sun. Farther north, NW swell reaching 8 ft will continue to propagate into the waters north of 27N west of 120W tonight through Sun. Winds and seas will diminish across the region Mon through mid week.