Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jun 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Amanda is centered near 10.8N 128.9W at 03/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 12 ft. Amanda is a small but well defined tropical storm, with numerous strong convection within 90 nm of the center, especially in the western semicircle. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Tropical Storm Amanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 90W from 03N N to the coast of El Salvador, drifting W at less than 5 kt. Numerous strong convection is noted from 03N to 12N between 85W and 95W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 1010 mb low pressure at 13N107W to 10N124W. It resumes SW of Tropical Storm Amanda near 08N131W and continues to 1011 mb low pressure near 07N139W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted E of 85W and N of 04N and from 07N to 13N between 95W and 102W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 108W and 113W and from 04N to 08N between 130W and 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge that is anchored by a 1028 mb high center N of the area near 33N138W stretches southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a surface trough along the Gulf of California is maintaining moderate to fresh NW winds over the Baja California offshore waters, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Inside the Gulf of California, light winds prevail, with seas of 1 to 3 ft, except seas of 3 to 5 ft in long-period S to SW swell near the entrance to the Gulf. For the remainder of the offshore waters, light to gentle winds dominate along with 5 to 7 ft seas primarily in long-period S to SW swell, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, NW swell will move through the waters offshore Baja California Norte tonight into Sat night, decaying afterward. An area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central America and southern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while it moves slowly northwestward or northward. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds are over the Central American offshore waters under a weak pressure pattern along with moderate seas of 5 to 7 ft in long-period S to SW swell. The exception is moderate gap winds in the Papagayo region. Gentle S to SW winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in long-period SW swell are over the waters S of the monsoon trough between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. For the forecast, long period SW swell will propagate through the southern Galapagos adjacent waters through Thu. Otherwise, an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of Central America and southern Mexico late this week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form late this weekend or early next week while it moves slowly northwestward or northward. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Amanda located well SW of Baja California. Otherwise, high pressure dominates waters N of the monsoon trough, with the pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough generally allowing for moderate to fresh trade winds N of the monsoon trough. Seas over these waters are in the 7 to 9 ft range in a mix of trade wind waves and NW to N swell. Mainly gentle winds are S of the monsoon trough. Seas over these waters are generally 5 to 7 ft, except for S of the Equator, where long-period southerly swell has created rough seas W of the Galapagos Islands. The aforementioned high pressure will weaken some toward the end of the week as Tropical Storm Amanda tracks NW over the western portion of the area, resulting a a lessening of the trade winds E of 130W. These winds will become light and variable from 04N to 12N between 120W to 130W, with seas subsiding to moderate. Little change is expected elsewhere. Tropical Storm Amanda is near 10.8N 128.9W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Amanda will move to 11.5N 129.9W Thu morning, 12.4N 131.0W Thu afternoon, 13.0N 132.4W Fri morning, 13.3N 133.6W Fri afternoon, 13.0N 134.3W Sat morning, and 12.6N 134.7W Sat afternoon. Amanda will weaken to a tropical depression near 12.0N 135.3W Sun afternoon.