Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed May 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 92W from the Guatemala coast southward, and moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Numerous heavy showers and scattered strong thunderstorms are occurring from 10N to 16N between 89W and 94W, including the offshore waters of Chiapas State in Mexico, and Guatemala and El Salvador. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 11N87W to 07N89W. The ITCZ extends from 08N93W to 1007 mb low pressure near 07N120W, then continues on to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 06N to 09N east of 88W, from 06N to 12N between 95W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak 1014 mb low pressure area is southwest of Guadalupe Island near 27N120W, along a trough reaching from near San Diego, California to 24N121W. This feature is breaking up the usual subtropical ridge over the area, and therefore allowing only light to gentle breezes off Baja California, except for moderate winds near Cabo San Lucas. Combined seas are 6-7 ft primarily in NW swell off Baja California. Light breezes and slight seas prevail across the Gulf of California. Gentle breeze and 4-6 ft in NW swell persist off southern Mexico. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to support mostly gentle to moderate NW winds across the area waters, with fresh winds possible near the coast of Cabo San Lucas each afternoon and evening. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds with 5-7 ft seas prevail across the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 90W this morning. Moderate easterly winds then extend beyond 90W to well south of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate breezes with 3-5 ft seas in SW swell are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse across the Papagayo region, mainly in the overnight and early morning hours through Thu morning, then diminish through Sat. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds along with moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the end of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge extends north of 20N southward from a 1035 mb high near 40N141W, and southeastward around a low level trough just southwest of Isla Guadalupe, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This ridge is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds north of 10N and west of 120W, with 7-10 ft combined seas primarily in NW swell. Gentle to moderate breezes and 5-7 ft are noted elsewhere. Trade wind convergence is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms along the ITCZ between 105W and 120W. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will continue to gradually weaken while shifting southwestward through the end of the week. This will allow winds and seas north of the ITCZ to steadily subside from east to west through midweek, becoming gentle to moderate winds with 6 to 7 ft seas by Fri. Winds south of the ITCZ will also becoming gentle by Fri with seas remaining at 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell.