Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Mar 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1400 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough is noted from 01S81.5W to 03.4S84W and continuing S of the area, then to 02S109W. The ITCZ extends from 00N111W to 02N125W to beyond 01N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00.5S to 03.4S between 92W and 103W, and from 04N to 06.5N between 122W and 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. High pressure is building SE toward Baja California, causing fresh to locally strong NW winds offshore Baja California Norte. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is leading to light to gentle winds, except gentle to moderate in the northern Gulf of California due to the high pressure. Moderate seas prevail elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, with slight seas over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over NE Mexico and the equatorial trough will support strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehunatepec early this morning and again tonight, then moderate to fresh Wed night and Sat night. High pressure will build and tighten over the waters N of Punta Eugenia by Wed, tightening the pressure gradient and supporting fresh to strong NW winds and building seas off Baja California. Rough to very rough seas will then persist there through the end of the week and into the weekend. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong gap winds are in the Papagayo region, with fresh to strong gap winds also ongoing in the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to 03N. Seas in these areas are 5 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle with slight to moderate seas. Scattered moderate convection is noted SW of the Galapagos Islands and near the coasts of Ecuador and Colombia. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected in the Papagayo area through through the week and into the weekend. Winds will increase to tonight into Wed morning, with seas building to 8 to 9 ft downwind of the Papagayo region to near 90W. Fresh N gap winds and moderate seas will pulse in the Gulf of Panama and just S of the Azuero Peninsula. Looking ahead, a significant southerly swell event with rough seas may approach the waters offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered just N of the region is dominating much of the waters N of 10N. This is leading to mainly moderate or weaker NE to E winds N of the Equator along with moderate seas. For the forecast, high pressure will build southward over the area through mid-week, tightening the pressure gradient and increasing winds. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas are likely over NW waters N of 05N and W of 115W starting late Wed and continuing into the weekend.