Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jun 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is entering the eastern Pacific near Panama along roughly 82W, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along the wave axis in the Gulf of Panama. A tropical wave is along 96W, south of 16N, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 09N to 12N between 93W and 98W. A tropical wave is along 110W, south of 17N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 08N to 16N between 108W and 111W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N90W to 13N110W to 09N120W. The ITCZ extends from 09N120W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 02N to 08N east of 85W, and from 09N to 12N between 90W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 08N to 14N between 111W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak ridging persists west of Baja California. A trough extends from modest low pressure over the Colorado River Valley through the central Gulf of California. This pattern is supporting moderate NW winds off Baja California, with occasionally fresh NW winds between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro. Recent altimeter satellite passes indicate combined seas off Baja California are 4-6 ft, which includes a component of NW swell. Gentle SE breezes and are noted over the Gulf of California with 1-3 ft seas. Farther south, an afternoon scatterometer satellite pass indicated the northern end of a trough along roughly 107W, half way between Socorro Island and Cabo Corrientes. The satellite pass confirmed moderate to fresh SE winds between the trough axis and the coast, and seas in that area are estimated to 5-6 ft. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4-5 ft seas are noted elsewhere off southern Mexico. For the forecast, the ongoing pattern will support moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California through tomorrow, and moderate to locally fresh S to SE winds over the northern Gulf of California tomorrow night. Lowering pressure well south of southern Mexico will help induce a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event from tomorrow night through Fri. These N to NE winds should peak at strong to locally near gale on Wed and Wed night. Elsewhere, winds and seas across the Mexican Offshores should be quiescent, except for large swell off southern Mexico by the end of the week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent scatterometer pass confirmed fresh to strong gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo area, where seas are estimated to be 5-7 ft. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active off Costa Rica and Panama along the monsoon trough, accompanied by occasional lightning, gusty winds and locally rough seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 3-5 ft are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, lowering pressure well south of SE Mexico and Central America will help induce a Gulf of Papagayo region gap wind event beginning tonight, lasting for the next several days. These NE winds should peak at strong from tomorrow through Thu. Elsewhere winds should remain quiescent until the end of the week. Numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms will continue over the waters west of Colombia and south of Panama through tomorrow night. Large S swell should reach the equatorial waters Wed through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad ridging dominates the waters north of 15N, supporting moderate to fresh NE winds and 6-7 ft seas from 10N to 25N, west of 120W. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere with 4-6 ft seas, except for 6-8 ft seas in SW swell south of 05N and east of 90W. For the forecast, 1010 mb low pressure currently near 13N109W and named EP94, is forecast to move westward to west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt, and some additional development is possible through midweek before environmental conditions become unfavorable late this week. Looking ahead, a low pressure system is expected to form late this week several hundred miles offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some slow development of this system is possible after that time while it moves west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt.