Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Dec 26 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Northern Waters Significant Swell: Large northwest swell generated by a storm system that is well north of the area is bringing very rough seas to waters north of 25N and west of about 125W, with seas peaking to around 15 ft (4.5 m) north of 28N and west of 130W. This swell will continue to propagate into the regional waters through Sat, with rough seas reaching as far south as 15N, and as far east as 119W on Fri before gradually subsiding Fri night through Sun. Rough seas of 8 to 12 ft are likely to prevail into the weekend across the offshore waters of Baja California north of about 17N. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia to 08N79W to 10N85W to 06N95W to 07N104W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 07N115W to 08N125W to 08N130W and to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of 06N85W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front associated to an intense storm center located well north of the area extends from near 30N123W southwestward to 25N130W and to 23N140W. Fresh to strong winds are on either side of the front north of 29N west of 120W. Seas with these winds are in the 8 to 12 ft range, except for higher seas over the area as described above under the Special Features section. To the southeast of the front, a weak 1018 mb high is analyzed at 25N116W. Light to gentle winds are near this high center. South of Punta Eugenia, moderate to locally fresh northwest to north winds continue inside the Gulf of California, where seas are 2 to 4 ft, and gentle to moderate N to NE winds prevail across the waters of Baja Sur and extend into the Revillagigedo Islands. Northwest well building across the area is producing seas of 6 to 9 ft across the Baja Norte waters and 4 to 6 ft south of Punta Eugenia. High pressure north of the region centered across the northern Gulf of America and northern Mexico will slowly weaken and remain relatively stationary into Sat, which will maintain strong gap winds across and downwind of Tehuantepec through that time. Winds may reach just below gale-force tonight, and then slowly weaken each day through Sat. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are currently downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec reach to near 14N. These seas will slowly subside going into Sat. Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate northwest to north winds prevail elsewhere across the Mexican waters between Puerto Angel and Baja Sur, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Waves generated across the Gulf of Tehuantepec are producing seas of 5 to 7 ft across the outer offshore waters well offshore of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, high pressure across the Gulf of America will continue to induce strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, gradually diminishing each day through Sat. Gale conditions may be possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region Tue night. Northwest swell propagating through the waters north of Punta Eugenia will be reinforced by a new set of northwest swell building into the regional waters today into Fri night, spreading rough seas southward across the offshore waters of the Baja California peninsula through the upcoming weekend. High pressure will begin to build across the Baja waters Fri night through the upcoming weekend to bring a return to more typical northerly winds. Fresh to locally strong northwest winds are likely to develop in the Gulf of California Sun into Tue as high pressure strengthens across the region. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh gap northeast winds are over the Papagayo region, and extend offshore to near 88W as seen in the recent 0222Z ASCAT pass. Seas with these winds are in the 5 to 7 ft range. Moderate to locally fresh north to northeast winds extend from the Gulf of Panama southward to near 06N, where seas are 3 to 5 ft in long-period southwest swell. Light to gentle mostly southwest winds are present elsewhere N of 05N. Gentle to moderate winds are found south of 05N. Seas are in the 4 to 5 ft range, except to 6 ft offshore of western Guatemala due to northwest swell propagating out of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will support pulsing fresh to locally strong northeast to east gap winds across the Papagayo region through the weekend. Mainly gentle to moderate north winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama during the period. Gentle or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section for details on significant swell impacting much of the northern waters. A cold front associated to an intense storm center located well north of the area extends from near 30N123W southwestward to 25N130W and to 23N140W. Mostly fresh southwest winds are within 60 nm east of the front north of 28N while fresh to strong west to northwest winds are west of the front north of 28N. Rough seas in building northwest swell are 8 ft and higher northwest of a line from 30N119W to 13N140W, with seas of 12 to 15 ft north of about 25N. Elsewhere across the waters, generally moderate to locally fresh trades are present south of 17N west of 128W along with moderate seas 5 to 7 ft in mixed NW and SE swell. The storm center that is well north of the area is forecast to move inland the Pacific NW coast and dissipate. This will allow for high pressure to begin to build into the regional waters from the NW. Global models suggest that a surface trough or broad low pressure will develop across the waters S of 20N between 120W and 128W Sun into early next week. This will combine with high pressure building into the region to produce a Brand zone of increasing winds from 15N to 25N and west f the Revillagigedo Islands, accompanied by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Seas may reach 12 ft with these winds as long- period north swell gradually fades across the area.