Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Nov 14 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0855 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Large NW swell following frontal boundary: A cold front extends from 30N121W to 20N131W and scattered showers are noted ahead of the boundary. The front will continue to move eastward across the waters of the discussion area north of 20N into Sat. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed moderate to fresh winds ahead and especially behind the frontal boundary. Large NW swell in excess of 12 ft will follow the front over the waters north of 25N today into Sat. Latest altimeter pass indicate seas to 16 ft near 30N130W. Rough seas will reach south to 10N and the offshore waters of Baja California late today into Sat. Winds and seas will diminish Sun. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 07N108W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N108W to 09N125W and to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 12N and east of 100W and also from 07N to 11N and west of 128W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure over the Gulf of America continues to support fresh to near gale-force northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that the peak winds in the area are near 30 kt, just below gale-force. A timely altimeter pass suggests that the seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are around 11 ft (3.5 M). Looking north, a cold front is nearing the far offshore waters of Baja California Norte, a few hundred miles to the west of Guadalupe Island, allowing for an increase in cloudiness and weak showers in the area. The frontal boundary is also supporting moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and seas of 5-7 ft. Elsewhere in the rest of the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downstream until Sat while high pressure to the north weakens and shifts eastward. Farther north, a cold front will move across Baja California and the Gulf of California today through Sat, bringing fresh to locally strong winds and seas to 13 ft in NW swell to the waters off Baja California Norte today and Sat. Expect fresh to strong SW gap winds across the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front Sat into early Sun. Looking ahead, another frontal boundary will bring fresh NW winds and rough seas to the Baja California offshore waters early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure remains located north of the NW Caribbean and continues to support fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are found south of the monsoon trough. In the rest of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted affecting the nearshore and offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will weaken and shift eastward into the weaken, allowing the winds and seas in the Papagayo region to diminish. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas will persist into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section regarding large NW swell following a cold front in the region. An active cold front is moving across the northern waters, extending from 30N121W to 20N131W, bringing fresh winds and rough to very rough seas to the waters north of 20N and west of 123W. The remainder of the basin is in a weak pressure pattern as the high pressure system ahead of front erodes. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are evident from 10N to 20N and west of 133W. In the eastern waters, moderate to fresh winds and seas of 6-8 ft are found north and south of the monsoon trough and west of 100W. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds and seas of 7-8 ft are present south of the monsoon trough and west of 110W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, outside of the area in the Special Features section, the winds and seas associated with the gap wind event will gradually diminish today. Fresh SW winds will flow into the monsoon trough today and Sat, between 90W and 100W, supporting seas to 8 ft. Looking ahead, the large NW swell following the front will gradually subside as it moves into the tropical Pacific and mixes with shorter- period wind waves generated by moderate to fresh trade winds. Another front may move into the waters west of Baja California Norte early next week, followed by large NW swell north of 29N and east of 130W.