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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Sep 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Polo is centered near 17.1N 105.5W at 24/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 935 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt. Peak seas are currently around 40 ft, or 12.0 m. Numerous strong convection is noted around the well-defined eye within 180 nm of the center. Polo is moving west-northwest and a turn toward the west is expected Fri, followed by a return to the west-northwest Sat. On the forecast track, the core of Polo is expected to move away from the coast of southwestern Mexico this afternoon and evening. Polo is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir- Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some strengthening is expected tonight. Gradual weakening is forecast starting Fri night and Sat. Heavy rainfall will continue to impact coastal sections of Michoacan, Colima, Jalisco, and Nayarit. This rainfall may produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Polo will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and toward Baja California Sur on Fri and into the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. Hurricane Odalys is centered near 16.8N 124.9W at 24/2100 UTC, moving east-northeast at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas have increased to 33 ft, or 10.0 m. Numerous strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the center. Odalys is moving toward the east-northeast. This general motion is expected through tonight, with a gradual turn toward the northeast and north expected Fri and Sat. Some fluctuations in strength are possible in the next day or so, followed by weakening through the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Polo NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys. Heavy Rainfall over Central America and Southern Mexico: Low pressure will drift westward from the far western Caribbean into Central America and adjacent southern Mexico over the remainder of the week, leading to enhanced rainfall over the region into the weekend. Heavy rainfall is possible over portions of northwest Nicaragua, the mountains of Honduras and Guatemala, as well as portions of Chiapas and Oaxaca in Mexico, and will raise concerns for life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. As this low pressure moves into the eastern Pacific south of southern Mexico early next week, it has a potential for tropical development. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 1009 mb low pressure over northern Colombia at 10N74W to across Panama and Costa Rica to near the Gulf of Papagayo at 10N86W to near the Gulf of Tehuantepec at 15N96W. The monsoon trough resumes SSW of Odalys from 12N127W to 11N132W to 12N140W. Aside from the convection described in the sections above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 77W and 83W, from 02N to 11N between 88W and 91W, from 13N to 16N between 92W and 99W, and within 210 nm SW of the monsoon trough W of 134W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 04N between 97W and 101W, and within 180 nm SE of the monsoon trough between 125W and 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Polo, and on Hurricane Odalys well WSW of the offshore waters. Away from Polo, light to gentle winds dominate, Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, and 4 to 7 ft over the remainder of the waters away from Polo. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to 17.0N 105.8W this evening, 17.1N 107.8W Fri morning, and 17.4N 109.6W Fri evening. Hurricane Polo will be at 18.2N 111.2W Sat morning, 19.4N 112.5W Sat evening, and 21.1N 113.3W Sun morning. Polo will change little in intensity as it moves to the west of Baja California Sur early Mon. Odalys will move to 16.9N 124.5W this evening, 17.8N 123.6W Fri morning, and 18.6N 123.1W Fri evening. Odalys weaken to a tropical storm near 19.6N 123.0W Sat morning, then reach 21.0N 122.9W Sat evening, and 22.4N 122.6W Sun morning. Odalys will weaken to a remnant low northwest of the Revillagigedo Islands early Mon. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week as the system moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this system through the next seven days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds dominate the offshore waters N of 09N, with gentle to moderate S-SW winds S of 09N. Locally rough seas have propagated into the western offshore waters of Guatemala due to Major Hurricane Polo near SW Mexico. Otherwise, moderate seas prevail, except for slight seas nearshore Colombia and Panama, and in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds expected to prevail across the offshore waters through the weekend, along with mainly moderate seas. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Polo, and on Hurricane Odalys well WSW of the offshore waters. Outside of Odalys and Polo, moderate or weaker winds dominate. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in mixed swells away from Polo and Odalys. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo will move to 17.0N 105.8W this evening, 17.1N 107.8W Fri morning, and 17.4N 109.6W Fri evening. Hurricane Polo will be at 18.2N 111.2W Sat morning, 19.4N 112.5W Sat evening, and 21.1N 113.3W Sun morning. Polo will change little in intensity as it moves to the west of Baja California Sur early Mon. Odalys will move to 16.9N 124.5W this evening, 17.8N 123.6W Fri morning, and 18.6N 123.1W Fri evening. Odalys weaken to a tropical storm near 19.6N 123.0W Sat morning, then reach 21.0N 122.9W Sat evening, and 22.4N 122.6W Sun morning. Odalys will weaken to a remnant low northwest of the Revillagigedo Islands early Mon. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form in a couple of days to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterwards, environmental conditions should be favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week as the system moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this system through the next seven days.