Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jul 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Douglas is centered near 18.0N 127.4W at 2100 UTC, moving NNW at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas of up to 4.0 m extend up to 100 nm from the center. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 17.5N to 20.5N between 126W and 129W. Douglas is expected to continue to gradually turn toward the northwest tonight through Fri, and gradually weaken as is encounters an unfavorable atmospheric and oceanic environment. Douglas is forecast to remain a tropical storm tonight, and become a 30 kt post- tropical remnant low on Fri, then continue to move NW and gradually dissipate over the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Four-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 84W-85W, south of 20N in the NW Caribbean, moving west at 15 kt. Associated convection is described below in the INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH section. A tropical wave is analyzed along 98W-99W, south of 15N, moving west at 10-15 kt. Associated convection is also described below in the INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N76W to 05.5N79W to 09.5N86W to 05.5N98W to 08N104W to 04N111W, then resumes south of Douglas from 13.5N127W to 08.5N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 04.5N to 11N between 79W and 91W, and from 01N to 11.5N between 91W and 103W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 09N between 103W and 116W and within 300 nm S of a line from 19N119W to 18N122W to 11.5N128W to 09N137W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific well north of the Hawaiian Islands, southeastward through 30N135W, then weakly south- southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. This pressure pattern is supporting gentle to moderate northerly winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in NW swell across the Baja California waters. N to NE gap winds across Tehuantepec have become moderate to fresh this afternoon and extend to near 15N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft seas in SW swell. Gentle to moderate SW to S winds continue across the northern Gulf of California, where seas are 3 ft or less. Light to gentle winds are ongoing elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, including the remainder of the Gulf of California. Seas are moderate in SW swell in the remainder offshores, except slight in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the surface ridge extending into the region will drift SW and weaken through early Sun, producing gentle to moderate winds across the Baja California waters, becoming locally fresh along the coasts each evening. As the remnants of Tropical Storm Douglas shift W of 135W on Sun, the ridge will build modestly across the Baja waters to produce moderate to fresh NW to N winds across those area waters Sun and Mon. NW swell moving across the Baja waters will maintain moderate seas through through the weekend, as it mixes with cross- equatorial SW swell. Fresh to strong N gap winds will pulse nightly in the Tehuantepec region through Sun. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE gap winds continue to dominate the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 90W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across this area. Gentle southerly winds are across the Gulf of Panama. Moderate SE to S winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in cross- equatorial SW swell dominate waters S of 02N between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell prevail across the remainder central America and Colombia offshore waters N of 02N. Scattered to numerous strong convection continues across the waters N of 04.5N from Colombia to offshore of Guatemala, producing strong gusty winds and locally rough seas. For the forecast, scattered thunderstorms will persist across the offshore waters through at least Sun as a pair of tropical waves move through the region. Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo region into early next week, leading to occasional rough seas. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will dominate area seas through the weekend and keep seas moderate to the S of 05N through Mon, increasing to near 8 ft near the Galapagos Islands Sun night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section on Tropical Storm Douglas. A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific well north of the Hawaiian Islands, southeastward through 30N135W, then weakly south- southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong winds within 300 nm to the N and NW of Douglas, where seas are 8 to 10 ft. Elsewhere south of the ridge, moderate to fresh NE to E winds, and 6 to 7 ft seas in N swell prevail north of 17N and west of 120W, outside the vicinity of Tropical Storm Douglas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are ongoing elsewhere, except near Douglas and the areas of convection described above. Mixed SE and cross-equatorial SW swell are producing seas of 7 to 8 ft S of 05N and W of 130W. For the forecast, the ridge will drift southwestward and generally persist across the region through early next week. Douglas will move N-NW to near 18.8N 127.6W around midnight tonight, then weaken to a 30 kt remnant low near 20.0N 128.1W midday Fri, and continue northwestward and gradually dissipate through late Sun or Mon.