Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Feb 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Very Rough NW Swell: Rough seas in NW swell over the waters N of 10N and W of 120W will get reinforced behind a cold front starting Sat night with seas building to very rough SE of 30N140W. By Sun evening, very rough seas will cover the waters N of 26N and W of 130W, up to 17 ft near 30N139W. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 07N85W to 01N92W. The ITCZ extends from 01N92W to 02S110W to 05N135W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 08N between 77W and 83W, from 00.5N to 05N between 89W and 98W, and from 03N to 05.5N between 135W and 138.5W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh N gap winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere under weak ridging, except locally moderate to fresh offshore Baja California. Seas are locally rough in NW swell offshore Baja California Norte, and moderate elsewhere, except slight in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, moderate to fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening before diminishing. Fresh to strong northerly winds are forecast there Sun night through Tue morning before diminishing. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse on either side of Baja California Sur to near Cabo Corrientes through the weekend, then again starting Tue. A cold front will approach Baja California Norte early next week with fresh to strong winds ahead of it in the northern Gulf of California and west of the northern peninsula through early Tue, then will diminish as the front moves through while weakening. A reinforcing surge may bring fresh to strong winds N of 30N Wed. Rough NW swell off Baja California Norte will linger through early Sun. Larger NW swell will spread across the waters W of 110W through early next week toward mid-week, with very rough seas N of Punta Eugenia. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east winds along with seas to 7 ft are in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are in the the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula. Moderate or weaker winds, and mainly 4 to 6 ft seas in a mix of swells are elsewhere. Active convection is near the coast of Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE-E gap winds and rough seas will persist across the Gulf of Papagayo region through early Sun, then pulsing to moderate to fresh into early next week. Fresh to strong winds may return there by Tue night. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama at times. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will change little through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on Significant Very Rough NW Swell forecast for the NW waters. A dissipating trough extends from 24N121W to 20N125W while high pressure is elsewhere across the waters N of the ITCZ. Moderate to locally fresh trades are noted from roughly 04N to 24N between 115W and 140W, with mainly moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Rough seas in old NW swell covers the waters mainly N of 10N and W of 120W, with moderate seas elsewhere. For the forecast, other than the Significant Very Rough NW Swell forecast for the NW waters, an associated cold front will approach 30N140W early Sat, reaching from 30N129W to 24N140W by early Sun with fresh to strong winds behind it, then from 30N120W to 18N140W early Mon, and from near Punta Eugenia to 13N130W by early Tue with winds N of 20N behind it diminishing as the front weakens. High pressure will build in the wake of the front and the belt of moderate to fresh trades N of the ITCZ will increase to fresh to strong early next week. Rough to very rough seas will accompany the increasing trades.