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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jul 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Elida: Tropical Storm Elida is centered near 18.9N 123.3W at 18/1500 UTC, moving north-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are around 24 ft, or near 7 M. Elidas's satellite presentation has degraded a bit since the previous advisory. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is within 180 nm of the center in the W semicircle. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm of the center in the E semicircle, and between 180 and 240 nm SE of the its center. Elida is forecast to maintain its current motion with some increase in forward speed expected through much of the weekend. An eventual turn to the north is forecast to occur by late on Sun. Elida is forecast to begin weakening later today with that weakening trend forecast to continue over the next few days as the storm moves over cooler waters. Elida is likely to become a post-tropical cyclone on Mon. Swells generated by Elida will affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Elida NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Storm Warning Central and Western East Pacific (Invest EP97): A broad 1009 mb area of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico near 10N107W. Disorganized numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 10N to 17N between 105W and 112W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N to 10N between 107W and 111W. Associated winds are currently 20 to 30 kt and seas are in the range of 7 to 9 ft. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form within the next day or so while moving west- northwestward over the central portion of the eastern Pacific. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through the next 48 hours. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, expect increasing winds and building seas to impact portions of the waters well offshore southwest Mexico to the Revillagigedo Islands this weekend into early next week, and a Storm Warning is now in effect beginning late Sun night into early Mon, with gale conditions possibly beginning sooner. Please read the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 107W from 02N to 18N. Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details, including the high chance for tropical cyclone formation within the next 48 hours. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1009 mb low along the coast of northwest Colombia southwestward through southern Panama and to 08N97W to low pressure, Invest EP97 near NEAR 10N107W and to 12N113.5W. It resumes SW OF Elida at 10N129W to beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm south of the trough between 77W-84W, also within 180 nm north of the trough between 90W-96W, within 120 nm north of the trough between 86W-90W, and within 120 nm south of the trough between 84W-87W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 07N to 11N west of 136W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Elida, centered about 785 nautical miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and on a broad area of low pressure, Invest EP97, near 10N107W, with the high potential for tropical cyclone formation. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and locally rough seas are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to a locally tight pressure gradient and nocturnal drainage flow. Otherwise, a broad northwest to southeast ridge axis extends across the waters. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters under the ridge, except moderate to fresh southerly winds in the northern Gulf of California, and similar wind speeds near the SPECIAL FEATURES Invest EP97 low pressure area. Seas are moderate elsewhere away from Elida, except slight in the Gulf of California. Active convection is present near the monsoon trough across much of the offshore waters southern and southwestern Mexico, with locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. For the forecast, remnant rough seas associated with Tropical Storm Elida well offshore Baja California Sur which will linger through the remainder of the weekend. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with occasionally rough seas. A tropical wave currently near 105.5W offshore southwestern Mexico has a high chance for tropical cyclone formation during the next 48 hours. Regardless of development, increasing winds and building seas will be possible near the Revillagigedo Islands by late this weekend into early next week, with a Gale Warning now in effect beginning late Sun night into early Mon if not sooner. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere, except slight seas in the Gulf of California, and occasional fresh to locally strong southerly winds in the northern Gulf of California. Winds may freshen off Baja California Norte by midweek. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds continue across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 09N91W per overnight satellite scatterometer data. Moderate to fresh NE winds are near the Gulf of Fonseca. Seas are 6 to 9 ft downstream of Papagayo. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama, and near the Azuero Peninsula. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, primarily in S to SW swell, dominate the remainder of the offshore waters, except slight seas in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and nearshore western Colombia. Active convection is present near the monsoon trough across much of the offshore waters, with locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas will persist across the Papagayo region through early next week, with moderate to fresh NE winds pulsing near the Gulf of Fonseca. Gentle to moderate N winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama with slight to moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected elsewhere, except in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and nearshore western Colombia where slight seas are forecast. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Elida, centered about 782 nautical miles west-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and on a broad area of low pressure, Invest EP97, near 10.5N105.5W, with the high potential for tropical cyclone formation. A ridge dominates most of the forecast waters north of the monsoon trough and north and west of Elida. The pressure gradient between the ridge and Elida supports moderate to fresh N to NE winds north of 15N and west of 120W, with moderate seas away from Elida. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere, except near the SPECIAL FEATURES low pressure area, Invest EP97, near 10.5N105.5W, with 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed swells across the open waters away from Elida. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Elida will move to near 10.1N 124.1W this evening, 21.9N 125.2W Sun morning, 24.0N 126.1W Sun evening, 26.4N 126.7W Mon morning, become post-tropical and move to 28.9N 127.2W Mon evening, and weaken to a remnant low near 31.4N 127.5W Tue morning. Elida will change little in intensity as it moves to 35.9N 128.0W early Wed.. Seas generated by Elida will continue to propagate across the forecast region, covering roughly the waters from 10N to 25N between 113W and 130W by early today. Seas are building to rough near 03.4S120W early today as winds freshen south of the monsoon trough in the wake of Elida, and as Invest EP97 potentially develops. These seas will gradually spread northward over the south-central waters as that occurs. Little change in marine conditions is expected across the remainder of the open waters.