Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Aug 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 113W and extends from 07N to 18N, moving westward at about 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is along and east of the wave axis from 10N to 16N between 100W and 113W. A tropical wave is along 122W/123W and extends from 07N to 16N, moving westward at 15 kt. A large area of showers and thunderstorms is ahead of the wave axis covering the waters from 06N to 15N between 125W and 134W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1008 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 10N76W to 06N95W to 08N110W to 13N117W to 10N140W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 125W and 134W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection can be found from 02N to 06N between 82W and 90W, from 10N to 16N between 100W and 113W, and from 08N to 13N W of 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Latest scatterometer data provided observations of fresh to strong N winds across the Tehuantepec area and downwind to near 14.5N. Rough seas to 8 ft are associated with these gap winds. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting light to gentle winds. Moderate to fresh SE to S winds are seen over the northern Gulf of California while gentle to moderate winds from the same direction prevail elsewhere. Light to gentle winds are occurring across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, seas are 3 to 5 ft. In the Gulf of California, seas are 1 to 3 ft, with the exception of 3 to 5 ft near the entrance to the Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue morning. The pressure gradient between the ridge W of the area and lower pressures over northern Mexico will support moderate to locally fresh southerly winds across the northern Gulf of California through Wed. Elsewhere, a moderate pressure gradient will promote mostly gentle to moderate winds across the remainder offshore waters of Mexico along with moderate seas. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure could form well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico by the middle part of the week. Little, if any, development of this system is anticipated while it moves generally west-northwestward. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent scatterometer data indicate a plume of fresh to strong NE to E winds acoss the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 08.5N92W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft with these winds. Moderate to fresh N gap winds are also active across the Gulf of Panama extending to about 06N with 3 to 5 ft seas, with the exception of 4 to 6 ft south of the Azuero Peninsula. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, winds are gentle to moderate with seas of 3 to 5 ft in SW swell, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. Elsewhere, mostly gentle winds and 4 to 5 ft seas in SW swell are noted. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region through Tue morning, reaching near gale- force speed at night. The gap wind event will produce a fetch of moderate to locally fresh easterlies with seas of 6 to 8 ft across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through late Mon. Moderate to fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Tue. Moderate or weaker southerly winds and moderate seas will continue across the offshores between Ecuador and the Galapagos through the forecast period. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are forecast elsewhere through Fri night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1027 mb high pressure located near 40N137W extends a ridge across the northern forecast waters, particularly N of 16N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between this feature and lower pressures along the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds from 10N to 20N W of 130W. Seas over these waters are 6 to 8 ft. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas are associated with a large and disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms covering the waters from 06N to 15N between 125W and 134W. This area is being monitored for possible tropical cyclone development. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh trade winds and moderate to rough seas are forecast to persist W of 125W likely through Tue. As previously mentioned, the tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward across the western portion of the East Pacific. Winds and seas are forecast to increase across the west-central portion of the forecast region by the early to middle part of the week as this system develops.