Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue May 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 88W, extending north of 04N into El Salvador and Honduras, and is moving west at 5 kt. It is enhancing convection near the monsoon trough described in the section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N75W to 04.5N78W to 08N88W. The ITCZ extends from 08N91.5W to 08.5N104W to 06N120W to 07.5N131W to beyond 07.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 10N E of 94W, and from 03N to 13N between 100W and 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle NW to N breezes continue to cover most of the Mexican offshore waters this afternoon, as a surface trough from just W of Isla Guadalupe along 120W extending SW to near 25N122W is partially blocking a broad ridge to the W of the region. South of the trough, the ridge extends modestly into Baja Sur, with gentle to moderate northerly winds prevailing across the waters south of Cabo San Lazaro to the Revillagigedo Islands, where winds veer from the N-NE. Light to gentle breezes are noted inside the Gulf of California. Large N to NW moving through the regional waters is gradually subsiding, but still producing seas of 7-9 ft off of Baja California and spreading southward to the Revillagigedos. Light to gentle wind and seas of 4-6 ft primarily in NW swell are elsewhere across the Mexican waters between Tehuantepec and the Revillagigedo Islands. For the forecast, large NW swell will gradually subside across the waters off of Baja California and through the Revillagigedo Islands tonight through Wed, subsiding below 8 ft by Wed evening. Moderate NW swell will then dominate the area waters into the weekend. A ridge extending across the region along roughly 21N will support mostly gentle to moderate NW winds across the area waters, with fresh winds possible near the coast of Cabo San Lucas each afternoon and evening. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds with 5-8 ft seas prevail across the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 90W this afternoon. Moderate easterly winds then extend beyond 90W to well south of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate breezes with 3-5 ft seas in SW swell are noted elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along the coastal waters and over interior portions of Costa Rica, Panama, and NW Colombia, behind a tropical wave moving through the region. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse across the Papagayo region, mainly in the overnight and early morning hours through Thu morning, then diminish through Sat. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds along with moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the end of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge extends southward from a 1034 mb high near 38N141W southward to the ITCZ, and southeastward around a low level trough just W of Isla Guadalupe, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This ridge is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds north of 09N and west of 122W. Large to moderate N to NE swell continues to move through the regional waters generally N of 10N this afternoon, producing seas in this area from 7 to 11 ft to the W of 110W. For the waters north of the ITCZ east of 120W, gentle to moderate NE to E winds with 6 to 9 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail south of the ITCZ. Active convection is along the ITCZ between 100W and 125W. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will continue to gradually weaken while shifting southwestward through the end of the week. This will allow winds and seas north of the ITCZ to steadily subside from east to west through midweek, becoming gentle to moderate winds with 6 to 7 ft seas by Fri. Winds south of the ITCZ will also becoming gentle by Fri with seas remaining at 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell.