Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Aug 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 112W from 02N to 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 131W from 02N to 17N, moving westward at 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 05N95W to 15N127W to 11N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 05N to 09N between 90W and 100W, from 04N to 18N between 103W and 115W, and from 05N to 18N between 122W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong gap winds, and rough seas, prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate to locally fresh winds are over the northern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail over the discussion waters. Moderate seas are over the open waters off Mexico with slight seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the middle of the week. The pressure gradient between high pressure W of the area and lower pressures over northern Mexico will support moderate to locally fresh southerly winds across the northern Gulf of California. A moderate pressure gradient will promote mostly gentle to moderate winds across the remainder offshore waters of Mexico along with moderate seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong E gap winds and rough seas persist across and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and rough seas will pulse across the Papagayo region through Tue night. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected elsewhere through Sat night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad ridging dominates the waters north of 20N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and low pressures within the monsoon trough is supporting a large swath of fresh to locally strong winds N of the monsoon trough to near 20N and west of 125W. Rough seas cover these waters. Convergence with the broad area of fresh to strong winds is generating a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while the system moves slowly northwestward across the western portion of the East Pacific. Winds and seas are forecast to increase across the west-central portion of the forecast region by the middle part of the week as this system develops.