Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Jun 17 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1400 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 89.5W extending from 01N northward near the Galapagos Islands to across western El Salvador and eastern Guatemala into the Gulf of Honduras, moving westward at around 20 kt. Nearby convection is described with the monsoon trough below. The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed near 108W extending from 02N to 16N. Nearby convection is described with the monsoon trough below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the SW Caribbean Sea to across Panama to the Pacific near 08.5N79W to 07.5N81W to 13N94.5W to 08.5N116W. The ITCZ extends from 08.5N116W to 07.5N126W to 10N138W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 01N to 09N between 77W and 86W, and from 04.5N to 16.5N between 91W and 97.5W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01.5S to 01N between 112W and 118W, from 07N to 14N between 112W and 122.5W, and from 09N to 13N between 138W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the northern Gulf of California into Baja California Sur to Cabo San Lucas. The pressure gradient between the trough and surface ridging to the west is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the Baja Peninsula offshores north of Cabo San Lazaro and gentle south of there, along with moderate seas to 7 ft in S-SW swell. In the Gulf of California, winds are now moderate to locally freshfrom the SSE, and seas remain slight north of the entrance of the gulf. A weak pressure gradient across the remainder discussion waters is supporting light to gentle winds with moderate seas to 6 ft in S-SW swell. Active convection is present across the offshore waters from Chiapas to Guerrero, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec as described above. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the waters of Baja California, pulsing to locally fresh speeds at night. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds are expected inside the Gulf of California and near the tip of Baja California Sur, reaching to locally fresh speeds today into early Thu. Light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Tehunatepec. Moderate seas in mainly southerly swell will prevail through the next several days, slight in the Gulf of California. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly light to gentle winds under a weak pressure gradient prevail across the offshore waters along with moderate seas in S-SW swell. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers and tstms are across the offshore waters of Colombia and Panama ahead of a tropical wave currently analyzed in the Caribbean Sea. Winds and seas may be higher in and near these areas of deep convection. Some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also occurring offshore El Salvador and Guatemala near another tropical wave. For the forecast, gentle to occasionally moderate S to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail across the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through at least Sun night. Moderate winds will pulse to fresh in diurnal offshore flow in the immediate Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in SW swell are forecast elsewhere through at least the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough, remnant of Invest EP93, extends from 14N138W southwestward to west of 140W. Active convection is present near 140W as described above. Moderate to fresh winds are within 150 nm either side of the trough north of 11N. Moderate to locally rough seas to around 8 ft are also within these winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail, with a frontal trough just N of 30N helping to weaken the pressure gradient. For the forecast, the remnants of former Invest EP93, will move completely west of 140W later today. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds, and moderate seas will prevail, except seas building to rough south of and near the Equator and east of 120W in new southerly swells through the end of the week. Winds may pulse to fresh in the west-central waters at times. Looking ahead, yet another set of southerly swell may build seas to rough over the same area during the upcoming weekend.