Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Oct 14 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0845 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 96W from 10N to 17N, moving westward at about 10 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen within 120 nm either side of the wave from 10N to 14N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia west-northwestard across central Panama, to the central section of Costa Rica, and northwestward to 12N97W to 10N110W to low pressure near 09N118W 1010 MB to 08N127W and to 09N133W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 10N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 180 nm north of the trough 86W-92W, and also between 93W-95W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A trough extends from southern Nevada south ward to across the northern and central Gulf of California while broad high pressure is west of Baja California. A tight gradient associated to the trough is producing fresh to strong southwest winds over the northern Gulf waters. To the west, the gradient between the trough and high pressure to the northwest is producing gentle to moderate northwest winds offshore Baja California Norte along with seas of 6 to 9 ft in northwest swell. Seas of 4 to 6 are west of Baja California Sur. Fresh to strong gap winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, where seas are 6 to 8 ft in south to southwest swell. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters along with seas of 4 to 5 ft in long-period south to southwest swell. For the forecast, the northerly swell spread through the waters west of Baja California tonight into Wed in the wake of a weakening cold front that will move across Baja California and the Gulf of California. To the south, broad low pressure located a couple hundred nautical miles south-southwest of Guatemala is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development during the latter half of the week, and a tropical depression could form as the system drifts northward, then northwestward, near or just offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection seen from 12N to 15N between 93W and 95W is part of a broad area of low pressure that is located a couple hundred nautical miles south-southwest of Guatemala is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Otherwise, gentle to moderate southwest winds along with seas of 4 to 6 ft continue over the regional waters. For the forecast, environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the aforementioned broad area of low pressure during the latter half of the week, and a tropical depression could form as the system drifts northward, then northwestward, near or just offshore of the southern coast of Mexico. Fresh winds and rough seas are possible offshore El Salvador and Guatemala Thu and Fri as the low moves across these waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad ridging prevails north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, with moderate to locally fresh north winds across these waters. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in this region, except for higher seas of 8 to 9 ft north of 25N between 115W and 125W, where north swell is propagating. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate southerly winds are south of the ITCZ along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Moderate south to southwest winds, with similar seas are south of the monsoon trough as latest altimeter satellite data passes indicate. For the forecast, a cold front will move southeastward across the waters north of 20N through Thu. A new set of long-period north swell producing seas of 8 to 10 ft will follow the front over the waters north of 25N through Wed before subsiding Wed night. Looking ahead, the gradient between high pressure building north of the area behind the front and relatively lower pressure in the region of the ITCZ will support moderate to fresh northeast winds north of 10N and west of 130W Thu and Fri. Farther south, weak low pressure is likely to form along the monsoon trough between 115W and 120W through Wed.