Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jun 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A tropical wave analyzed along about 124W at 1200 UTC this morning, has evolved into an elongated area of low pressure, and is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms between 114W and 129W that is beginning to show signs of organization. A 1008 mb surface low has recently been analyzed near 11.5N 123W. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of this week while the system moves generally northwestward and then north- northwestward. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive by the end of the week, ending its chances of development. This system has a medium chance for tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours and a high chance within 7 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 105W, south of 15N, moving westward around 15 kt. Associated convection is about the ITCZ in this area and described below. A tropical wave previously analyzed along 124W has evolved into an elongated area of low pressure, and is being monitored for potential tropical cyclone development, Invest EP95. See the Special Features section above for specific information on this system. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 05N to 15.5N between 114W and 129W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 10N7W to 05N79W to 09N84W to 08N93W. The ITCZ continues from 08N93W to 09.5N104W, then from 09N106W to 08N111W to 12.5N122W to beyond 05.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N E of 85W, and from 01N to 011N W of 129W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 13N between 95W and 109W, and from 04.5N to 16N between 111W and 129W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends from strong high pressure located well N of the Hawaiian Islands, southeastward through 30N140W to just NE of the Revillagigedo Islands. This pressure pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in NW swell across the Baja California waters. Strong to gale force winds farther north and offshore of California are generating typical NW swell moving into the Baja waters, with seas to 8 ft across the far outer waters of Baja Norte. Inside the Gulf of California, moderate to locally fresh SW to W gap winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present in the northern Gulf, while moderate to fresh S winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft generally prevail across the rest of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds dominate the remaining waters from the Revillagigedo Islands to near Salina Cruz, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in primarily cross- equatorial S swell. A narrow plume of fresh N to NE gap winds continues across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending offshore to near 14.5N. Seas are 6 to 7 ft across this area. For the forecast, the broad ridge across the region today will remain intact through Tue then begin to drift westward and weaken slightly through the remainder of the week. This pattern will produce gentle to moderate winds across the Baja waters through Fri, with locally fresh winds possibly each late afternoon and evening. Moderate NW swell moving into these area waters will continue near 8 ft across the outer Baja Norte waters through Thu. A narrow plume of fresh N to NE gap winds and moderate to rough seas are expected to continue to pulse to strong across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region from the nighttime to late morning hours each night and morning through Sat. Fresh to strong W to SW gap winds will also pulse in the northern Gulf of California tonight through early Tue morning, and then become moderate to fresh Tue through Wed morning. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Midday satellite scatterometer data showed fresh to strong NE gap winds dominating the Papagayo region and extending offshore to 92W and northward across coastal Nicaragua to the Gulf of Fonseca. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across this area. Satellite scatterometer data also showed moderate to fresh N winds across the Gulf of Panama extending southward to 03.5N, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Gentle winds and seas at 4 to 5 ft in mixed swell prevail across the remainder central America and Colombia offshore waters N of 02N. Gentle to moderate S winds and 6 to 7 ft seas in cross- equatorial S swell dominate waters S of 02N between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Thunderstorms remain active this afternoon from 02N to 06N E of 85W. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong gap winds and moderate to rough seas will continue across the Papagayo region throughout the week, as a strong ridge persists north of the region. NE to E swell generated by these winds are expected to maintain moderate to locally rough seas well downstream to beyond 90W. Farther south, cross-equatorial southerly swell will keep moderate to locally rough seas near the Galapagos Islands and off Ecuador until midweek. Periods of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will persist near the Colombia coast, spreading to south of Costa Rica and Panama by this evening. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge extending from N of the Hawaiian Islands southeastward through 30N140W to just NE of the Revillagigedo Islands is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas to the N of the ITCZ and W of 120W. East of 120W and north of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed moderate swell prevail. A 1008 mb surface low has developed this afternoon near 11.5N 123W, in association with a tropical wave, and is being monitored for tropical development, Invest EP95. Scattered to numerous convection remains active about this broad cyclonic low level circulation. Fresh E to NE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are found within 300 nm across the N semicircle of this broad low. Light to gentle winds and seas at 6 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swell are noted near and south of the ITCZ to near 04N. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds with 6 to 9 ft seas in cross- equatorial S to SE swell prevail elsewhere south of 04N. For the forecast, gradual development of Invest EP95 is possible during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle of this week while the system moves generally northwestward and then northward. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive by the end of the week, ending its chances of development. Regardless of development, a gradual increase of winds and seas is expected along the northern portion of this area of low pressure this week, as a broad high pressure ridge persists N of the area. Outside of this system, little changes are anticipated north of the ITCZ for the next several days. South of the ITCZ, a gradual decrease in both winds and seas will occur by Wed.