Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jul 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 91W, and extends northward across western Guatemala and SE Mexico moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 07N to 13N between 88W and 97W. The axis of a tropical wave is along 129W from 07N to 17N, moving westward at 10 kt. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 14N between 127W and 131W. Moderate to strong SE to S winds are on the east side of the wave axis likely associated with the convective activity there. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1008 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 07N80W to 10N90W to 07N100W to 10N109W. The ITCZ stretches from 11N131W to beyond 07N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 02N to 12N E of 90W to the coast of Colombia, from 07N to 16N between 115W and 120W, and from 05N to 09N W of 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting light to gentle winds based on recent scatterometer data. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are observed over most of the Gulf of California between the ridge to the west and a meandering surface trough over the Gulf of California. Seas are 1 to 3 ft S of 30N and 3 to 5 ft N of 30N. Seas of 3 to 4 ft are near the entrance to the Gulf. A surface trough moving across the Bay of Campeche and an approaching tropical wave are helping to induce fresh to strong northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are generally moderate, primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the middle of next week producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds along with moderate seas in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds and mainly slight seas will prevail through the middle of next week. Pulses of fresh to strong winds will persist in the Tehuantepec region through early next week. Otherwise, a broad area of low pressure is located several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by midweek next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. The tightening pressure gradient across the area may induce at least fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas across the offshore waters of SW Mexico starting late Sun or Sun night. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent satellite derived wind data provide observations of gentle to moderate winds across the Papagayo region. Similar wind speeds are also noted in the Gulf of Fonseca area. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW prevail elsewhere. Abundant cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms are noted across the offshore waters from Colombia to Guatemala. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region through the middle of next week with moderate to rough seas. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas may impact the waters offshore El Salvador and Guatemala Sun through Mon night as a broad area of low pressure persists several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands where slight seas are expected. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge prevails across the waters N of 18N W of 110W. Under the influence of the ridge, light to gentle winds are noted N of 20N and E of 130W while gentle to moderate NE winds dominate the waters N of 10N W of 130W. A couple of tropical waves are moving westward across the waters S of 20N. A surface trough is analyzed from 17N114W to 09N120W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is near the trough axis, which is well defined on scatterometer data. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with moderate seas. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure is located several hundred miles south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by mid-next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. In addition, showers and thunderstorms have increased during the past several hours in association with a trough of low pressure located well southwest of the Baja California peninsula. Some slow development of this system is possible over the next couple of days. By the middle of next week, environmental conditions are expected to become less conducive for development while it moves slowly west- northwestward.