Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jan 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure building across eastern Mexico in the wake of a strong cold front in the Gulf of America and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting gale-force winds in the Tehuantepec region. These winds should reach strong-gale force, with seas peaking in excess of 20 ft later today through Sun morning. Winds will diminish below gale force Tue morning. Another gale force gap wind event is possible in Tehuantepec starting Wed night or Thu morning. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will reach gale-force Sun night through early Tue as an Arctic high pressure building over the eastern United States helps tighten the pressure gradient. Seas will peak near 12 ft Sun night and Mon. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpc.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 04N97W. An ITCZ extends from 04N97W to 05N120W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 85W and 100W...and from 04N to 10N west of 117W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early next week. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the pressure gradient between surface ridging west of the Baja Peninsula and a surface trough over western Mexico is supporting fresh to strong NW winds in the Gulf of California. Seas are slight to moderate over these waters. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas. For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong NW to N winds across the Gulf of California will diminish this afternoon. A set of NW swell will impact the waters west of the Baja California peninsula late Sun night through Tue. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A Gale Warning is expected for the Gulf of Papagayo starting Sun night. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. Fresh to strong NE winds prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo region extending westward to near 88W. Moderate to fresh gap winds are over and downstream of the Gulf of Panama. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, aside from the Gulf of Papagayo, a gale force gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will produce rough to very rough seas over the western Guatemala and El Salvador waters tonight through Mon. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds along with rough seas are also expected near the Gulf of Panama this evening through Tue night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging prevails across the waters N of 20N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh trades from north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of about 118W. A cold front is approaching the NW waters. Large NW swell generated from that system has moved into the NW waters, with seas in the 8-12 ft range. Elsewhere, moderate winds, and moderate seas in mixed swell, prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will weaken and dissipate through Sun. Large NW swell over the NW waters, with rough to very rough seas, will impact the waters north of 15N and west of 125W through Sun, with rough seas further spreading southeastward to cover the waters north of 05N and west of 120W by Mon before gradually subsiding. Another set of large NW swell will bring rough to very rough seas over the NW waters by Tue.