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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Oct 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Major Hurricane Simon is centered near 17.6N 104.8W at 10/2100 UTC, moving north at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 932 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt. Peak seas are near 30 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within 60 nm N and 90 nm S semicircles. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 12N to 21N between 102W and 108W. Simon has resumed a slow motion toward the north near 5 mph (7 km/h) and this general motion is expected to continue through the weekend. On the forecast track, Simon is expected to be near or just inland of the west-central coast of Mexico on Sunday before moving further inland on Monday. Simon is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are anticipated tonight, but Simon is still forecast to approach the coast of west-central Mexico as a major hurricane on Sunday. Rapid weakening could occur if the core of Simon moves fully onshore by Monday. the hurricane is expected to produce rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum totals of 30 inches possible across portions of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Sunday. This rainfall will produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Simon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Rachel is centered near 27.0N 118.3W at 10/2100 UTC, moving north-northeast at 26 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 989 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are near 24 ft. Scattered moderate convection is NE of center from 28N to 31N E of 120W. A northeastward to north-northeastward motion with a further increase in forward speed is expected through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Rachel is expected to approach northern Baja California today and move onshore tonight. Rachel's post-tropical remnants will then move across the southwestern United States on Sunday. Some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours, especially after Rachel moves inland over Baja California. Rachel is likely to become post-tropical cyclone by Sunday morning. Rachel will bring 1 to 3 inches of rain to portions of Baja California this weekend. Waves generated by Rachel will continue to build along the coasts of Southern California and northern Baja California today. These waves, combined with an incoming long-period southerly swell, will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Coastal flooding and erosion are expected to worsen tonight into Sunday morning as the highest waves coincide with the high tides and water levels that are already running well above predicted levels. Moderate to major coastal flooding is expected, with hazardous coastal conditions continuing into early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07.5N78W to 08N83W to 11N91W, then resumes near 12N124W to beyond 09N140W. In addition to the convection associated with Rachel and Simon, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N E of 100W to the coast of Colombia, from 00N to 06N between 100W and 130W, and from 05N to 12N W of 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Rachel. Outside of the areas impacted by Simon and Rachel, a weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. A recent scatterometer pass indicated N winds of 15 kt across the Tehuantepec region and downwind to about 14N. Seas are 6 to 7 ft with these winds. For the forecast, Hurricane Simon will move to 18.3N 104.9W Sun morning, 19.4N 105.1W Sun afternoon, inland to 20.8N 105.2W Mon morning, move inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 21.9N 105.2W Mon afternoon, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 22.8N 105.1W Tue morning, and dissipate Tue afternoon. Meanwhile, Rachel will move to 30.4N 116.3W Sun morning, become post-tropical and move to 36.3N 114.1W Sun afternoon, and dissipate Mon morning. Expected increasing winds and building seas over the northern Gulf of California tonight into Sun as Rachel approaches Baja California Norte. Gusty winds to minimal tropical storm force may occur. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to develop south or southwest of the coast of Mexico by early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle or latter half of next week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 kt. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are noted N of 04N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail S of 04N. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast waters through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh Ne to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region Sun night and Mon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Rachel and Major Hurricane Simon. Outside of the influence of the tropical cyclones, fresh to strong N winds and rough seas are noted between Rachel and a ridge that dominates the NW part of the forecast region. These marine conditions are affecting mainly the waters N of 24N between 128W and 134W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. A couple of altimeter passes indicates rough seas in the 8 to 10 ft range S of 05N between 110W and 120W. For the forecast, as Rachel moves over the southwest United States, a cold front is forecast to extend across the northern forecast waters on Sun. Fresh N to NE winds and rough seas, in long period northerly swell, will follow the front forecast to reach from the northern Baja California to near 22N125W on Mon while gradually dissipating. Large SW swell will continue to affect the waters S of the Equator and west of 105W over the next couple of days.