Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Oct 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0305 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Trudy is centered near 18.2N 105.7W at 18/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 976 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are 34 ft. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the center. A general northwestward motion is expected through Sunday, followed by a turn toward the west-northwest Sunday night. On the forecast track, the center of Trudy is approaching the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico and will pass near the coast tonight and Sunday. Some additional strengthening is possible tonight. Weakening is expected to begin by Sunday afternoon. Swells generated by Trudy are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward toward west-central Mexico. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Trudy. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure building over NE Mexico is forcing powerful gale force winds through the Gulf of Tehunatepec, along with very rough seas. Winds tonight and Sun will be near storm-force, with seas as high as 20 ft. Gales and very rough seas will prevail Sun night through Tue night. Fresh to near gale-force winds and rough seas will persist through the remainder of next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 09N94W and from 09N111W to 08N125W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N126W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 15N and E of 93W and from 01N to 10N and between 101W and 119W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Trudy off SW Mexico and the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Away from Hurricane Trudy and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a moderate pressure gradient between a strong high pressure over the High Plains of the western United States and lower pressures in NW Mexico support moderate to locally fresh northerly winds in the waters of the Gulf of California north of 27N. Seas in these waters are 2-4 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Hurricane Trudy will move to 19.2N 106.4W Sun morning, 20.1N 107.1W Sun evening, weaken to a tropical storm near 20.6N 107.7W Mon morning, 20.9N 108.3W Mon evening, 21.1N 108.7W Tue morning, and weaken to a remnant low near 21.5N 109.3W Tue evening. Trudy will dissipate late Wed. Aside from Trudy, strong high pressure building over NE Mexico is forcing powerful gale force winds through the Gulf of Tehunatepec, along with very rough seas. Winds tonight and Sun will be near storm- force, with seas as high as 20 ft. Gales and very rough seas will prevail Sun night through Tue night. Fresh to near gale-force winds and rough seas will persist through the remainder of next week. Looking ahead, n area of low pressure is forecast to form well offshore of southern Mexico within a couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form around the middle of next week while it moves westward to west- northwestward, well south of Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low over the next 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong high pressure building into NE Mexico supports a large area of fresh to strong gale-force northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh to strong northerly winds are spilling in the far offshore waters of Guatemala, along with rough seas to 10 ft. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or lighter winds prevail. Seas of 6-8 ft are occurring between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, while seas of 3-6 ft are occurring in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, a powerful early-season gap wind episode in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will support strong N winds and very rough seas to waters offshore Guatemala into Sun night, with rough seas then continuing through Tue night. Large SW swell will gradually decay south of the equator into tonight. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail during the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1030 mb high pressure system centered near 40N140W extends southeastward to the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific waters. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds north of 06N and west of 125W. Moderate to locally rough seas are occurring in these waters. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and rough seas are found south of the monsoon trough and east of 127W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate to locally rough seas prevail. For the forecast, little change in winds is expected through early next week. Large SW swell near the Equator will decay tonight. A weak cold front will move S of 30N by early Tue, bringing fresh to locally strong N winds Tue into Wed N of 28N, with rough to very rough seas N of 20N Tue into Thu.