Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat May 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 97W-98W, S of 14N, drifting westward around 5 kt. A broad 1009 mb low was depicted by recent satellite scatterometer data near 09.5N99W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11.5N between 95W and 105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N77W to 07N82W to low pres near 09.5N99W 1009 mb to 11N106W to low pres near 08.5N119W 1008 mb to low pres near 09.5N127W 1008 mb 10N126W to 06N135W. The ITCZ begins near 05N136W and continues beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 01.5N to 10.5N E of 89W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11.5N between 95W and 130W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 09N W of 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends into the region to just SE of the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough along NW Mexico is producing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds across the Baja Norte and Sur waters this morning, with winds diminishing slightly beyond 200 nm offshore. NW swell continues to produce moderate to rough seas over these waters, with highest seas to 9 ft offshore of Baja Sur. Inside the Gulf of California, winds are gentle to moderate from the NW with seas of 1 to 3 ft. Elsewhere to the east, mainly NW to N light to gentle winds prevail, with moderate seas 4 to 6 ft in SW swell. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and extend well offshore of Chiapas. For the forecast, NE Pacific high pressure will maintain a ridge across the regional waters through the middle of next week, which will maintain moderate to fresh NW winds across the Baja California offshore waters. NW swell moving through the Baja California offshore waters will merge with SW swell across the SW Mexican offshores to produce seas of 7 to 9 ft today through Sun. New N swell will then enter the Baja California Norte waters on Sun and subside early Tue. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms continue across most of the local offshore waters S of 10.5N and east of the Papagayo region to coastal Colombia. Persistent thunderstorms are offshore the SW coast of Colombia and likely generating strong gusty winds with locally rough seas. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevailing S of 10N and the monsoon trough, while light to gentle winds are elsewhere, except for locally moderate NE winds across the Papagayo region. Seas are mainly moderate in building SW swell, except 7 to 10 ft S of 04N, highest near the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern across the region will result in light to gentle winds through the period, with nocturnal pulses of moderate to fresh gap winds across the Papagayo region. Large SW swell will maintain rough seas across the waters between the Galapagos Islands and Colombia through Sun before subsiding. Otherwise, moderate seas in SW swell will prevail across the forecast waters into the middle of next week. Expect convection to remain active across the area waters during the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure covers the waters north of 20N and west of 110W, centered on strong high pressure NE of the Hawaiian Islands. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds N of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of about 116W. Seas over these waters are in the 7 to 10 ft range in a mix of trade wind swell and NW to N swell. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough E of 110W, as well as S of the trough. Seas across the waters S of the trough and ITCZ are generally 7 to 10 ft in building S to SW swell. For the forecast, little change is expected in winds for the next few days. The current NW to N swell will combine with wind generated waves produced by the fresh trade winds N of the monsoon/ITCZ leading to rough seas over the waters W of 120W through Sun. E of 120W, NW to N swell will merge with southerly swell over the central waters during the weekend, with wave heights of 8 to 9 ft forecast to cover a good portion of the waters S through SW of the southern tip of Baja California to the Equator E of 120W, and westward to near 140W. Looking ahead, the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC mentions that a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form early next week well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle part of next week while moving westward or west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt across the western portion of the East Pacific.