Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Apr 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N75W to 03N83W to 05.5N97W. The ITCZ extends from 06N98W to 07N130W to 05N135W to beyond 05.5N140W. A southern hemispheric ITCZ extends from 03.4S93W to 02.5S99W to 03S104W to 02.5S110W to beyond 03.4S114W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01.5N to 08N between 81W and 101W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 08.5N between 103W and 118W, and from 02N to 05N between 120W and 130W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 02S between 88W and 104W near the southern hemispheric ITCZ. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure is centered just S of Isla Guadalupe and extends a surface ridge southeastward into the waters offshore of Cabo Corrientes. The ridge is to the south of a cold front entering the offshore waters of Baja Norte, that reaches from near the border of Baja Norte and Southern California through 30N120W to 27N130W. This pattern is supporting light to gentle SW to W winds ahead of the front, across the Baja waters north of 30N, and light to gentle NW to N winds across the remaining Baja waters, becoming moderate to fresh near the coast of Cabo San Lazaro. Gentle N to NE winds then extend from Baja Sur beyond the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate seas of 4 to 5 ft in mixed swell prevail across these waters. Light to gentle N winds prevail across most of the Gulf of California with slight seas, becoming moderate to locally fresh across the entrance to the Gulf. The exception to this is across northern portions where fresh SW gap winds and moderate seas prevail. Farther east, gentle NW winds prevail across the waters from Las Tres Marias to Puerto Angel, except moderate winds near the coast of Cabo Corrientes. Fresh to strong N gap winds are noted in the Tehuantepec region N of 15N, where seas are around 6 ft. For the forecast, the cold front will move into the Baja Norte waters early Mon then gradually dissipate across central Baja and the Gulf of California Tue. Expect light to gentle NW to N winds across the Baja waters tonight and Mon ahead of the front, before winds begin to freshen Mon evening through Tue. High pressure behind the front will build across the region and dominate conditions through the rest of the week. Fresh to strong SW to W gap winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California through Mon night ahead of the front, with winds then becoming moderate to fresh from the N through the entire Gulf early Tue morning through Wed. Elsewhere between Baja Sur and Puerto Angel, winds will be moderate or weaker with moderate seas through Tue. Pulsing fresh to strong northerly gap winds will prevail across and downwind of the Tehuantepec region through Tue morning, with seas building to near 8 ft during the early morning hours. Afterwards, moderate and variable winds are expected through midweek. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region and extend downwind to near 88.5W this evening, producing rough seas to 8 ft that reach to 90W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail in the Gulf of Panama, and extend beyond the Azuero Peninsula to 06N. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell dominate the remainder of the offshore forecast waters. Scattered moderate convection continues across the near and offshore waters of western Panama and Costa Rica. For the forecast, broad high pressure will continue N of the area through Wed before weakening, and maintain fresh gap winds pulsing to strong during the nighttime and early morning hours across the Papagayo region to near 90W. Winds to near 30 kt, and seas up to 9 ft are forecast tonight. In the Gulf of Panama, moderate northerly winds, pulsing to fresh each night, are expected throughout the forecast period. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Cross-equatorial SW swell will raise seas to 6 to 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Tue through Wed. Active convection will continue across the waters S of 09N and W of 80W through Mon, and will propagate westward. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure NW of the area extends a ridge southward through 30N142W and into the area W of 125W. East of the ridge, a cold front has crossed into the local waters, passing through 30N120W to 26N136W. A weak ridge prevails ahead of this front and extends to offshore of Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail north of the front, with moderate seas 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ to about 14N between 97W and 124W, and south of 25N to the west of 124W. Moderate seas in mixed NW and S swell generally prevail across the area waters south of the front, with seas to 7 ft within the trade wind zone between 95W and 120W. For the forecast, the weak high pressure ridge will dominate the weather pattern across the northern forecast waters through early Mon with little change in winds and seas, before high pressure behind the front shifts southeastward to near 33N through midweek, and strengthens the pressure gradient across the local area modestly. Moderate winds are expected in the trade wind zone W of 95W through Mon, becoming moderate to locally fresh Mon night through Fri. A weakening cold front across the northern waters will move into the central Baja Peninsula to near 22N134W by Tue then gradually dissipate. Moderate N to NE winds and moderate seas in NW swell are forecast in the wake of the front through Wed.