Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Mar 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 04.5N77W to 00.5N83W to 01.5N93W to 01.5N104W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 02N105W to 02N127W to beyond 01N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of 03N between 85W and 96W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 05N between 92W and 105W and from 01N to 02.5N between 123W and 127W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Broad low pressure shifting eastward across Baja California and the Gulf of California this morning has moved inland and weakened across NW Mexico, and is now analyzed as a 1017 mb low near 30N112W. Associated broad cyclonic wind flow across the area N of 20N and E of 118W is becoming less defined. Northwest of the area, a broad surface ridge prevails and extends southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The resultant weakening pressure gradient between the ridge and the low is producing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds across the Baja near and offshore waters, where seas are 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. In the Gulf of California, light and variable winds prevail across the northern Gulf, while recent satellite scatterometer data showed gentle to moderate W to NW winds across the remainder of the Gulf, with seas to 4 ft across southern portions. Farther south, the pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure across interior Mexico is yielding fresh to strong northerly winds within 150 nm of the Cabo Corrientes area, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere, including moderate N winds spilling across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, the aforementioned low will continue to shift eastward and farther inland while dissipating through this evening. A ridge will build towards Baja California Sur and Cabo Corrientes tonight through Thu, while new NW swell will enter the waters of Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are expected between Baja California Sur and Cabo Corrientes, including Las Tres Marias, from late today through Wed evening. Northerly winds will then freshen inside the Gulf of California Wed afternoon through Thu morning before the ridge weakens modestly across the area. Otherwise, a strong gap wind event is forecast to begin across Tehuantepec on Thu morning, with winds reaching gale- force late Thu afternoon, then diminishing below gale- force by late Fri morning. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast across all the Mexican offshores throughout the upcoming weekend. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds and moderate seas to 7 ft prevail across the Papagayo region, and extend downwind near 91W. Moderate N to NE winds and moderate seas prevail across the Gulf of Panama and downstream to 03.5N. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the equator. Cross-equatorial S-SW swell continues to spread across regional waters, producing seas of 5 to 9 ft, and to 10 ft south through southwest of the Galapagos. For the forecast, fresh gap winds will continue to pulse to strong at night across the Papagayo region through Fri night as high pressure remains N of the area. Moderate N winds will also pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Panama through Sat. Mainly light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. Cross-equatorial S-SW swell will continue to build across the regional waters through tonight, before subsiding Wednesday. Another round of cross-equatorial SW swell is expected to move into the regional waters over the upcoming weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1030 mb remains well NW of the region along 134W. An associated broad ridge covers the waters N of about 12N and W of 107W. The related pressure gradient is sustaining fresh NE to E winds from 08N to 21N between 112W and 140W. Moderate to rough seas of 7 to 9 ft in mixed swell prevail with these winds. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas in mixed N and S swell. For the forecast, the low pressure over Baja California and the central Gulf of California has moved eastward and inland across NW Mexico and will dissipate this evening. High pressure will reorganize NW of Baja California later tonight, and extend a ridge south and southeastward across the E Pacific subtropical waters. New NW swell will move into the waters W of the Baja California offshores to about 130W tonight through early Thu, and subside Thu night. Otherwise, large S-SW cross- equatorial swell will continue to propagate N and NE, producing rough seas as far N as 20N through Wed, before subsiding from east to west Wed night through Fri. Looking ahead, another round of cross- equatorial SW swell is expected to move into the regional waters mainly E of 120W over the upcoming weekend.