Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Nov 17 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 12N95W to a 1011 mb low pres near 08N105W to 08N107W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N107W to 09N125W and beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 07N to 10N west of 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front extends from a 1012 mb low pressure located near 28N117W to 20N130W. Fresh to locally strong NW to N winds and rough seas follow the front. Gentle to moderate NW to N winds are noted across the offshore waters of Baja California, and also in the Gulf of California. Similar wind speeds are in the vicinity of Cabo Corriente. Light to gentle winds dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. Moderate seas in NW swell are impacting these waters, including the entrance to the Gulf of California. Slight seas are seen in the N and central parts of the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the above mentioned cold front will move across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California today while weakening. Another cold front will reach the same area tonight into Tue followed by fresh NW winds and rough seas in long period NW swell. Winds are forecast to increase again to fresh to strong speeds across the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front tonight into Tue, with seas building to 6 or 7 ft. The cold front will move SE reaching Punta Eugenia by Tue night while gradually weakening. It is forecast to dissipate between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lazaro by Wed. Rough seas in the wake of the front will propagate across the outer offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through midweek. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Weak high pressure north of the area continues to sustain moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas across the offshore waters of Central America and NW South America. For the forecast, little change is expected in the weather pattern across the region as a weak pressure gradient prevails. This will support moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas through at least midweek. In the Gulf of Papagayo, mainly gentle to moderate NE to E winds and slight to moderate seas are expected through Fri. Winds may pulse to fresh speeds at night building seas to 5 or 6 ft. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... As previously mentioned, a cold front extends from a 1012 mb low pressure located near 28N117W to 20N130W. A second cold front stretches from 30N124W to 28N130W to 29N140W followed by fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas in NW swell. Elsewhere N of the ITCZ and W of 110W high pressure prevails with a 1025 mb center located near 35N140W. In the eastern waters, a weak low pressure of 1011 mb situated near 08N105W along the monsoon trough is sustaining moderate to locally fresh winds and seas to 7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are present. For the forecast, the cold front over the northern waters will move southeastward over the next few days, bringing fresh to strong NW to N winds and rough seas in additional pulses of long period NW swell. This swell event will propagate across much of the waters N of 25N by tonight, and N of 23N and E of 130W by Tue night. High pressure in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas in the trade wind zone toward midweek. At that time, the high pressure center is forecast to be located over the NW corner of the forecast area. Looking ahead, another cold front is expected to reach the NW waters Wed night into Thu.