Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Jul 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Douglas is centered near 17.0N 127.1W at 02/0900 UTC, moving north at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas of up to 4.5 m extend up to 150 nm from the center. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 16N to 20N between 124W and 129W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere from 07N to 25N between 120W and 130W. Douglas is expected to gradually turn to the northwest later tonight through the end of the week. Although some slight strengthening is possible the next several hours, a weakening trend is forecast tonight into Friday. Douglas is forecast to become a post-tropical cyclone on Friday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Four-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends from 01N to the Oaxaca offshore waters. The axis of the wave is near 96W, and is moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 13N between 90W and 105W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 04N97W to 10N120W. The ITCZ extends westward from 07N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is from 01N to 12N east of 90W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 07N between 102W and 110W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific, southeastward to the Baja California offshores. This pressure pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas of 5 to 6 ft in NW swell across the Baja California waters. Fresh to locally strong N gap winds continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with 6 to 7 ft seas in SW swell. Light to gentle winds are ongoing elsewhere including the Gulf of California. Seas are moderate in SW swell in the remainder offshores, except slight in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the surface ridge will drift SW and weaken through the remainder of the week, producing gentle to moderate winds for the Baja California offshore waters. Moderate NW swell moving across these waters will maintain moderate seas through tonight. Fresh to strong N gap winds will pulse nightly in the Tehuantepec region through early next week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue to dominate the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 90W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across this area. Moderate SE to S winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in cross-equatorial SW swell dominate waters S of 02N between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Light to gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell prevail across the remainder central America and Colombia offshore waters N of 02N. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo region into early next week, leading to occasional rough seas. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will keep moderate seas near the Galapagos Islands through Mon night. Thunderstorms will persist for the offshore waters between Costa Rica and Colombia through at least the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section on Tropical Storm Douglas A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific southeastward to the Baja California offshore waters, and is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds, and 6 to 7 ft seas in N swell, north of 22N and west of 130W, outside the vicinity of Tropical Storm Douglas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are ongoing elsewhere, except near Douglas and the areas of convection described above. For the forecast, Douglas will move to 17.8N 127.3W this afternoon, weaken to a tropical depression near 19.0N 127.6W Fri morning, become a remnant low and move to 20.2N 128.2W Fri afternoon, 21.2N 128.8W Sat morning, 22.1N 129.7W Sat afternoon, and 23.0N 130.6W Sun morning. Douglas will dissipate early Mon.