Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Feb 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from low pressure in Colombia southwestward to 08N79W to 09N84W and to 03N91.5W, where it transition to the ITCZ to below the Equator at 01S, to the Equator at 115W, then to 04N126W to O4N131W and to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 93W-94.5W, and within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 92W-95W.Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm north of the trough between 88W-90W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to near gale-force northerly winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas up to 8 ft due to a tight pressure gradient over the region between 1009 mb low pressure over Mexico near 21N106W and A 1020 mb high center over the NW Gulf of America. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters with a ridge of high pressure reaching across the outer Baja California offshore waters to offshore SW Mexico, with moderate seas, except slight seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to near gale-force northerly gap winds and locally rough seas will pulse through this afternoon in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Strong gap winds may again be active across the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week. Moderate to fresh northwest to north winds will shift from the southern Gulf of California Sat night to near Cabo Corrientes Sun with a locally tight pressure gradient. A cold front will move across Baja California Norte early next week, with at least fresh winds with it, including in the northern Gulf of California. Rough northwest swell will build offshore Baja California Norte by early Sat into early Sun, with a more significant set of long-period northwest swell associated with the cold front arriving early next week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east winds along with seas to 8 ft are in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are in the the Gulf of Panama. Moderate or weaker winds, and mainly 4 to 6 ft seas in a mix of swells are elsewhere. Active convection is near the coast of southern Colombia and Ecuador. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas will persist across the Gulf of Papagayo region into late Sat, then pulsing to moderate to fresh into early next week. Winds will increase back to fresh to strong by Tue night. Little change is expected with the winds in the Gulf of Panama through early Sat, before diminishing slightly afterward. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening 1016 mb low is near 23N124W, with a trough extending northeastward to near 27N122W and southwestward from it to near 22N125.5W. A tight pressure gradient between the trough and strong high pressure of 1031 mb located north of the area at 34N140W is supporting fresh to strong northeast to east winds mainly north of 21N and west of the trough and low. Rough to very rough seas as indicated in recent altimeter satellite data passes are present north of 20N and west of 125W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere, except moderate to fresh trades from 06N to 15N west of 129W. For the forecast, the aforementioned fresh to strong winds in the NW waters will persist through Fri morning before diminishing slightly as the pressure gradient weakens. A cold front is forecast to push southeast of 30N140W Sat with fresh to strong winds behind it. The front will reach from 30N124W to 21N140W by Sun evening, then from near Baja California Norte to 20N124W Mon evening with fresh to strong winds behind it becoming confined to the waters north of 30N by early Tue. Rough to very rough seas over the northwest waters will gradually decay into Sat. An even larger set of long-period northwest swell accompanying the cold front will arrive in the northwest waters Sat night, spreading across the waters north of 07N and west of 115W by Tue night. Meanwhile, pulsing moderate to fresh trades in the west- central waters will persist into early next week, then increase to fresh to strong Tue as the pressure gradient there tightens. Locally rough seas with the trades will build as the trades increase Tue.