Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jan 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure over the Gulf of America will continue to funnel winds across the Chivela Pass, producing N to NE gales over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu morning. Winds of 35-40 kt and rough seas were observed this afternoon across the Tehuantepec region, and similar conditions will continue through Thursday morning. There will be a brief reprieve over the Tehuantepec region from Thu afternoon into Fri afternoon, while the gap winds reduce down to moderate to fresh speeds. A new strong cold front pushing across the Gulf of America will usher in another round of gale conditions in the Tehuantepec region beginning Fri night. These winds may peak as severe gales with seas as much as 18 ft Sat afternoon and evening. N to NE gales then look to continue into early next week. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Zone Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAOFFPZ7.shtml for more details on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from coastal Costa Rica at 08N84W to 05N90W. The ITCZ continues from 05N90W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted from 05-10N between 125W-130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu morning. See the Special Features section above for more details. The pressure gradient between surface ridging W of the Baja Peninsula and a surface trough over the Baja and Gulf of California region supports moderate to fresh NW winds funneling through the Gulf of California with 2-4 ft seas. These winds were confirmed by a pair of Metop-B and Metop-C ASCAT passes at 1653 UTC and 1731 UTC, respectively. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event, winds over the remainder of the Mexican waters are gentle to moderate with 3-6 ft seas in NW swell. A band of moderate convection is occurring from the Revillagigedo Islands northeastward to offshore Nayarit, driven by an upper level trough W of the region. For the forecast outside of the Tehuantepec region, high pressure over the U.S. Great Basin will continue to force moderate to fresh NW winds across the Gulf of California before diminishing Sat night. Large NW swell will reach the waters west of Baja California Norte on Thu and Fri. There is also potential for another, larger round of NW swell approaching the waters west of Baja California Norte late this weekend or early next week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A pair of scatterometer passes between 1500-1600 UTC today indicated fresh to strong NE to E gap winds continuing over the Papagayo region with seas of 6-8 ft. N moderate to fresh winds are also observed over the Gulf of Panama with seas 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, the strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is forcing NW to N swell of up to 10 ft across the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters. Over the remainder of forecast waters, winds are gentle to moderate with seas 2-4 ft. For the forecast, high pressure over Central America and the W Caribbean will force fresh to strong NE to E gap winds over the Papagayo region through Fri morning. After a brief reprieve Fri afternoon to Sat afternoon, a stronger round of NE to E strong to near-gale force gap winds will resume over the Papagayo region Sat night into Sun morning. Gale-force winds are possible Sunday and Monday. The same high pressure will force moderate to fresh N to NE winds over the Gulf of Panama for the next several days. Elsewhere, a strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event forcing large NW to N swell spreading across the Guatemala and El Salvador waters should continue through Thu night. Looking ahead, a new Tehuantepec event should again produce large to very large NW to N swell over Guatemala/El Salvador waters Sat night into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1030 mb high near 33N128W extends a ridge across much of the remaining Eastern Pacific waters. The relatively weak pressure gradient between this high and lower pressures in the deep tropics is forcing generally moderate to fresh E to NE trades from the Equator to about 20N. An upper level trough is driving scattered showers and thunderstorms from the ITCZ to about 20N between 115W and 130W, which are leading to locally strong E to NE winds per recent scatterometer data. Large NW swell is impacting our NW corner, northwest of a line from 30N130W to 20N140W. The strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is forcing seas of 8-10 ft in N to NW swell down to 03N between 90W-110W. Elsewhere, moderate seas in mixed swell prevail. For the forecast, building high pressure north of our region will enhance the trades, causing a larger area of fresh to locally strong NE winds and seas of 6-8 ft from Thu through Fri. The large NW swell will continue moving southeastward reaching 08N by Fri and gradually diminishing. On Fri evening, a new cold front will reach 30N140W with fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the boundary. However, the cold front will gradually weaken while it moves steadily eastward through the weekend. Large to very large NW swell will follow the cold front and impact the northern waters this weekend.