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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jul 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Fausto is centered near 19.1N 136.4W at 25/1500 UTC, moving west at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Seas of 12 ft or higher from 14N to 24N and W of 131W, with maximum seas of 34 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection prevails from 17N to 21N between 133W and 138W. Surf generated by Fausto is expected to begin building across east-facing shores of the eastern end of the state on Sunday, spreading westward Sunday night into Monday, and continue building through Tuesday as Fausto approaches and moves into the area. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Fausto will continue moving W over the next few days, with center moving W of 140W by Sun night. Tropical Storm Genevieve is centered near 10.8N 104.3W at 25/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 05N to 15N between 99W and 110W. Seas of 12 ft or higher are from 09N to 12N between 101W and 105W, with maximum seas of 20 ft. Swells generated by Genevieve are expected to begin affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico starting this weekend and will likely reach southern portions of the Baja California Peninsula on Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Rapid intensification is forecast during the next couple of days. Genevieve is forecast to become a hurricane by tonight and a major hurricane by Monday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories of both systems at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern extension of the tropical wave extends along 88W north of 03N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 120 nm on either side of the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends extends from western Colombia to 09N84W to 07N94W, then resumes southwest of T.S. Genevieve at 09N106W and continues to 08N113W. The ITCZ extends from 08N113W to 08N124W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm on either side of the boundaries. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends northwest to southwest over the waters west of Baja California. The gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressures over Baja California is supporting moderate to fresh northwest to north winds over the waters west of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro and gentle to moderate northwest winds south of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell. Light and variable winds are over waters southeast of Baja California to near 16N along with seas of 3 to 5 ft in south to southwest swell. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds in the northern outer periphery of T.S. Genevieve are present south of 16N along with seas 8 to 11 ft in southeast to south swell. For the forecast, Genevieve will strengthen to a hurricane near 11.8N 106.2W this evening, move to 12.9N 108.3W Sun morning, 14.2N 110.2W Sun evening, 15.5N 112.0W Mon morning, 16.6N 113.6W Mon evening, and 17.6N 115.2W Tue morning. Genevieve will change little in intensity as it moves to 19.0N 118.5W by early Wed. As Genevieve tracks to the southwest and west of Baja California Sur next week, the pressure gradient between it and high pressure to its north the pressure gradient will tighten west of Baja California Norte. Swells from Genevieve will impact just about all of the offshore waters outside the Gulf of California, except for its entrance through next week building seas over these waters to 12 ft and greater. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh north to northeast winds continue across the Papagayo region and extending downwind to near 90W, and northward to southern Nicaragua. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are over most of the offshore waters north of Costa Rica. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4 to 5 ft in S to SW swell. For the forecast, the fresh to strong northeast to east winds will pulse across the Papagayo region well into next week. Moderate to rough seas will accompany these winds. Gentle to moderate north winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama into early next week with slight to moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in southwest swell are expected elsewhere, except in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and nearshore western Colombia where slight seas are forecast. The southwest swell will subside around midweek. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Fausto and on T.S. Genevieve. Hurricane Fausto is impacting a portion of the western part of the area. Fresh to strong winds outside of the immediate circulation of Fausto extend northward to 25N, with seas to 8 ft reaching as far north of Fausto as 28N. Elsewhere, high pressure dominates the waters between Baja California and Fausto, and also north of 15N west of about 120W. Moderate or weaker winds with moderate seas prevail. Southwest swell will continue to build seas over the equatorial waters west of 120W starting this morning. A surface trough is along 125W from 03N to 12N. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 08N between 123W and 129W. For the forecast, Hurricane Fausto will move to 19.5N 138.1W this evening, 19.9N 140.5W Sun morning, 20.3N 142.9W Sun evening, 20.7N 145.6W Mon morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.1N 148.5W Mon evening, and 21.6N 151.2W Tue morning. Fausto will change little in intensity as it moves to 22.5N 156.1W by early Wed. Genevieve will strengthen to a hurricane near 11.8N 106.2W this evening, move to 12.9N 108.3W Sun morning, 14.2N 110.2W Sun evening, 15.5N 112.0W Mon morning, 16.6N 113.6W Mon evening, and 17.6N 115.2W Tue morning. Genevieve will change little in intensity as it moves to 19.0N 118.5W by early Wed. As Genevieve tracks to the southwest and west of Baja california Sur next week, the pressure gradient between it and high pressure to its north the pressure gradient will tighten west of Baja California Norte. The cross-equatorial swell mentioned earlier will gradually build seas to 8 to 9 ft over a portion of the south-central; waters south of about 03N and between 94W and 128W going into the early part of the week.