Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jan 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...Gale/Storm Warning Gulf of Tehuantepec... A strong cold front is expected to move across the Gulf of America beginning on Sat. With this, a large area of gale-force and rough to very rough seas will develop in the Tehuantepec region, beginning Sat night and prevailing through early next week. Winds will increase in speed this weekend, reaching storm- force strength on Sun night. Gale conditions will then prevail from Mon through Tue night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N97W. The ITCZ continues from 07N97W to 09N125W, then resumes near 07N131W to beyond 06N140W. Surface trough from 12N127W to 06N129W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 124W and 132W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between a strong ridge building across the western United States and a surface trough crossing the southern Gulf of California is resulting in fresh to strong NW winds offshore Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro, where rough seas are present. From Cabo San Lazaro to the Revillagigedo Islands, winds are moderate to fresh from the NW and seas are moderate. In the Gulf of California, fresh to strong NW winds are N of 28N while gentle to moderate NW winds prevail at the entrance of the Gulf. Seas remain slight, except to moderate N of 28N. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in NW swell are elsewhere. For the forecast, a large area of gale-force gap winds and very rough seas will occur across and well downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Sat evening as a strong cold front moves through the western Gulf of America. Winds will increase in speed this weekend, reaching storm-force strength on Sun night. Gale conditions will then prevail from Mon through Tue night. Large swell will reach as far south as the Revillagigedo Islands into Sun, with very rough seas north of Cabo San Lazaro through tonight. Strong high pressure building north of the area over the Great Basin will support strong to near-gale force NW winds and rough seas across the Gulf of California through Mon. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure extending across the northwest Caribbean and the Yucatan is supporting fresh to strong NE gap winds across the Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh northerly gap winds are also ongoing across the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas primarily in SW swell prevail. For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong winds across the Papagayo region through Tue night. Pulsing moderate to fresh northerly winds are also expected across the Gulf of Panama through Tue. A strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec beginning Sat evening will result in rough seas spreading to the offshore waters of Guatemala Sun into early next week. Otherwise, gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere through the forecast period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure building well north of the area is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds north of 08N and west of 120W, where rough seas prevail. Gentle to moderate E to SE wind with moderate seas in N swell are noted south of the ITCZ and west of 110W. Mainly gentle breezes and moderate seas are evident elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support fresh trade winds and rough seas from 09N to 22N west of 115W through tonight. NW swell will keep rough seas in place for waters north of 15N into the weekend. Another round of large NW swell will pass southeast of 30N140W Sat night, and cover the area north of 10N and west of 120W by late Mon.