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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jun 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Amanda is centered near 13.1N 134.1W at 2100 UTC, moving west at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 4 m, or 13 ft, within 45 nm across the NW semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm across the W semicircle. Additional scattered moderate convection is elsewhere Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong. Amanda is expected to move west-southwestward through this evening, followed by a southwestward motion tonight through Sun. Gradual weakening is expected to continue through the weekend. Amanda is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression by Sat afternoon and degenerate into a remnant low on Mon. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Amanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N73.5W to 10.5N91W to 09.5N95W to low pressure near 14N104.5W 1009 mb to 09.5N121W to 10N121W to 10.5N128W to 07.5N137W to 08N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 12N E of 94W, and from 07.5N to 17N between 94W and 110W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10.5N between 110W and 137W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge, anchored by a 1030 mb high pressure center located near 34N145W, extends a ridge southeastward and into the Baja California waters to S of the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern is producing gentle NW winds across the Baja waters, and moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds across the Baja Sur waters to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas across these waters are 5 to 7 ft in mixed NW and SW swell, except 7 to 9 ft to the N through SW of Isla Guadalupe in fresh N-NW swell. Inside the Gulf of California, gentle to locally moderate S winds generally prevail, with seas of 1 to 3 ft across the Gulf, except 4 to 6 ft in SW swell across the entrance. Across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds dominate, with seas of 6 to 8 ft, primarily in SW swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the offshore waters between Chiapas and Colima as described above. For the forecast, high pressure well NW of the area extending a broad ridge into the Baja waters will weaken slightly through Mon as the high drifts to the W. This pattern will support gentle to moderate NW to N winds through tonight, then diminish slightly through Mon, except persisting to fresh near Cabo San Lucas. Rough seas in building NW swell will propagate across the outer offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia through Sun, then begin to merge with large S swell Sun night through Tue, raising seas to 8-9 ft across all Baja waters. Southerly winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Gulf of California N of 30N Sat night and Sun night. Low pressure located well offshore of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next several days while it moves slowly northeastward near the coast of southern Mexico. Currently, this system has a high chance of medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours and a high chance through 7 days. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak surface pressure pattern continues N of the region, across the Gulf of America and western Caribbean. This pattern is yielding light to gentle winds over the Central American offshore waters N of 10N, except locally moderate gap winds offshore Nicaragua, extending beyond 90W, where a weak low center is beginning to develop along 92W. Light to gentle S to SW winds prevail S of 10N becoming gentle to moderate across the outer waters and from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Seas of 5 to 8 ft in building SW swell prevail across the area waters, except 7 to 9 ft from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have become locally numerous across much of the area waters S of 10N this afternoon, with higher winds and seas likely near this activity. For the forecast, SW swell will continue to propagate into the regional waters, maintaining moderate to rough seas through Sat morning, with highest seas around 8 ft expected between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. New larger SW swell is expected to arrive Sat night, propagating northeastward and into the area coastal waters by late Sun, building seas to 7 to 10 ft. SW to W monsoonal winds are expected to strengthen Sat night through Sun and aid in the development of low pressure offshore of Central America. Disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity is already occurring across these waters this afternoon. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this low pressure system, and a tropical depression could form during the next several days while it moves slowly northward toward the coast of Central America. Regardless of development, fresh to strong monsoonal winds will increase over the weekend, likely leading to heavy rainfall across portions of Nicaragua, El Salvador, and Guatemala. Currently, this system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next 7 days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Amanda located well SW of Baja California Sur. High pressure at 1030 mb near 34N145W dominates the waters N of 15N and W of 115W, extending southeastward to S of the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and T.S. Amanda is promoting moderate to fresh NE to E winds across the waters N of 12N and W of 130W. Seas over these waters and elsewhere N of 10N are in the 7 to 10 ft range in a mix of trade wind waves and NW to N swell. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail N of 20N between 115W and 130W, where seas are 6 to 9 ft in N to NE swell and near 10 ft along 30N. Mainly gentle winds are S of the monsoon trough and W of 115W, with moderate to locally fresh winds S of the monsoon trough and E of 115W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft S of 10N and W of 115W, and 7 to 9 ft in mainly S to SW swell elsewhere. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Amanda will move to 12.9N 134.5W tonight, reach near 12.5N 134.9W late Sat afternoon as a tropical depression, reach near 11.6N 135.7W late Sun afternoon, then become a post tropical remnant low near 11.3N 136.5W Sun night. Meanwhile, the high pressure NW of the area will drift W and weaken slightly across the area waters today through Mon as Tropical Storm Amanda tracks SW over the western portion of the area, resulting in gradually diminishing winds across the trade wind zone. Little change is expected elsewhere through Sat morning, before large S to SW reaches the equator and moves through the regional waters through early next week, reaching to 20N Sun night through Mon. Northerly swell in the N-central waters with seas of 7 to 10 ft will linger for the next several days. Looking ahead, monsoonal southerly winds are forecast to increase to at least fresh to strong E of 110W this weekend into early next week with possible tropical cyclone formation off both southern Mexico and off portions of Central America.