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Tropical Weather Discussion

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 119 PM EDT Sat Apr 29 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front is expected to enter the Gulf of Mexico extending in 30 hours from 30N92W to 22N95W to 19N95W. Gale force winds are expected to develop south of 26N and west of the front by that time. These conditions will continue through early Monday, when the front will be over the eastern portion of the basin and hence, the pressure gradient will relax across the southwest Gulf. Please read the latest National Hurricane Center High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC, for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough remains over Africa. A surface trough extends from 08N15W to 04N16W. The ITCZ extends west of this trough from 03N18W to 00N32W to 02N40W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along and near the surface trough between 14W-20W. Another area of scattered moderate convection prevails within 150 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 30W-50W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends across the northern half of the basin from a high pressure currently centered over the western and central Atlantic. An area of low pressure centered over northern Texas extends across Mexico and the western half of the Gulf. These features are generating enough pressure gradient to support moderate to fresh southerly winds across the basin, with some isolated areas of strong winds possible. No significant convection is observed across the basin at this time. Over the next 24-48 hours, a cold front will enter the western Gulf and continue moving east through Monday. Gale-force winds are expected to develop west of the front. Please refer to the section above for details. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient across the basin is supporting moderate to fresh trades mainly over the eastern half of the basin, while moderate winds prevail across the western half. A diffluent flow prevails over the northeast Caribbean mainly over Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and the Leeward Islands supporting cloudiness and isolated showers north of 16N and east of 72W. Dry air and subsidence are limiting convection across the remainder of the area. A cluster of moderate to strong convection prevails over the EPAC near the Gulf of Panama affecting portions of Central America and its adjacent waters. Over the next 24 hours, the showers and thunderstorms will increase over the southwestern Caribbean in response to low-level convergence across the area. Otherwise, little change is expected. ...HISPANIOLA... A diffluent flow aloft prevails across the island supporting cloudiness and isolated showers. Scattered moderate convection is expected to develop in afternoon and evening hours. Similar scenario is expected during the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge prevails across the basin anchored by a 1028 mb high centered near 32N64W and a 1031 mb high near 35N42W. An upper-level trough with axis extending from east to west from 26N58W to 25N75W is enhancing convection over the northeast Caribbean and adjacent northern coastal waters. To the east, a 1012 mb surface low is centered near 25N24W. A surface trough extends from the low to 22N26W while a weakening stationary front extends from the low to 28N22W to 31N12W. Expect for this low and fronts to dissipate within the next 24 hours. Little change is expected elsewhere. For additional information please visit