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Tropical Weather Discussion

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 601 AM EDT Tue Jun 27 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends its axis over Africa from 20N15W to 11N15W, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave was found using satellite imagery and model diagnostics. Scattered moderate convection prevails along the northern portion of the wave mainly north of 14N between 13W-18W. A tropical wave extends its axis from 10N30W to 02N30W, moving westward at 15 kt. The wave is embedded within a moist environment, however Saharan dry air and dust is intruding some around the northern segment of the wave. Isolated showers are observed within 150 nm west of the wave's axis mostly along 06N. A tropical wave extends over the central Atlantic with axis from 12N52W to 04N54W, moving westward at 10-15 kt. The wave is in an area of moderate moisture and a diffluent flow aloft. These features are supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms north of 08N between 50W-58W. A tropical wave is over the central-west Caribbean with axis from 19N76W to 11N76W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. The wave is in a region of limited moisture at low to mid-levels. Isolated showers are north of 16N between 71W-77W. A tropical wave is over the Yucatan Peninsula and Central America with axis from 21N88W to 10N88W, moving westward at about 10-15 kt. The southern portion of the wave is very near to the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. The wave marks the leading edge of deep tropical moisture that trails the wave east to near 89W. Isolated moderate convection are observed across portions of Central America between 88W-92W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 21N17W southwest to near 11N27W. The Intertropical Convergence Zone is from 06N34W to 09N50W. Isolated showers are within 180 nm on either side of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... A broad upper-level trough extends from eastern United States to the extreme northeast portion of the Gulf waters, then becomes a narrow trough south to near 25N84W. This feature supports a stationary front that is analyzed from 30N84W to 29N90W. Isolated showers are noted along the portion of the front near Louisiana affecting the adjacent waters north of 28N between 89W-96W. This frontal boundary is forecast to gradually become diffuse through the afternoon hours, with the remnants possibly lifting back north. The portion of the front along the Florida coast may sag some to the south today as a high pressure to its north builds in from the northwest. To the west, a surface trough extends across the Bay of Campeche from 22N89W to 18N92W. Isolated showers are observed along this trough. CARIBBEAN SEA... The main features in the basin are two tropical waves already discussed in the section above. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds in the vicinity of the wave over the central Caribbean mainly south of 17N. These winds are expected to increase to near gale across the Gulf of Venezuela by tonight. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are developing over the Windward Passage, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba mostly related to the tropical wave. Another tropical wave currently over the central tropical Atlantic is expected to enter the eastern Caribbean on Tuesday night, and reach the central Caribbean late on Wednesday. This wave will be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms, some of which may contain gusty winds. ...HISPANIOLA... Upper-level moderate to strong southwest to west winds continue to advect deep level moisture over the island and surrounding waters as the northern portion of a tropical wave moves across west away from the area. Expect scattered showers and thunderstorms to continue through the next 24 hours. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Two tropical waves are moving across the basin. Please refer to the section above for details. A surface high pressure covers the basin, with the parent 1025 mb anticyclonic center located just north of the area at 34N44W. A broad upper-level trough along the United Stated eastern seaboard supports a stationary front that extends from a 1015 mb low pressure center near 33N76W southwest to inland northeast Florida. Isolated showers are observed along the front. This activity is expected to continue through today as the surface boundary begins to drift southward, and upper-level dynamics provide further support to maintain it active. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine