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Tropical Weather Discussion

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 705 PM EST Mon Feb 20 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough extends from the African coast near 07N10W to 04N15W. The ITCZ extends from 04N15W to 01S30W to the South American Coast near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03S-04N between 24W-31W. Isolated moderate convection is from 03S-06N between 31W-36W, and from 03S-05N between 44W-51W. ...DISCUSSION... GULF OF MEXICO... As of 2100 UTC, a 1013 mb low is centered near Lake Charles Louisiana at 29N93W. A surface trough extends S from the low to the SW Gulf of Mexico near 22N96W. Scattered moderate convection is N of 27N between 92W-94W. 10-15 kt SE surface flow is E of the trough due to ridging. In the upper levels, a very sharp trough is over central Texas moving E. An upper level ridge is over the Gulf with axis along 85W. Upper level moisture is over E Texas and the NW Gulf. Strong subsidence is over Florida and the E Gulf. Expect in 24 hours for a cold front to merge with the surface trough and extend from Mobile Alabama to the SE Bay of Campeche with convection. Also expect 25 kt NW winds behind the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... The tail-end of a cold front is N of Hispaniola producing scattered showers along 20N. 10-25 kt tradewinds are over the Caribbean with strongest winds along the coast of N Colombia, and over the NW Caribbean. Scattered showers are over N Venezuela, N Colombia, W Panama, Costa Rica, Honduras, E Cuba, Hispaniola, Puerto Rico, and The Virgin Islands. In the upper levels, an upper level high is over the NW Caribbean Sea near 16N85W. Strong subsidence is over most of the Caribbean except over the Yucatan Channel. Expect in 24 hours for prefrontal convection to be over the Yucatan Peninsula. Also expect scattered showers to be over the Leeward Islands due to the tail- end of another cold front. ...HISPANIOLA... Scattered showers are over Hispaniola. Expect showers to persist for the next 12 hours, followed by fair weather. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1011 mb low is centered over the W Atlantic near 29N67W. A cold front extends S to N of Hispaniola along 26N66W 23N66W 21N72W. Scattered showers are within 90 nm of the front. A stationary front is over the central Atlantic from 31N42W to 24N50W to 22N58W to 25N61W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 22N-26N between 56W-65W. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the remainder of the front. A 1033 mb high is centered N of the Azores near 44N21W with a ridge axis extending S to the E Atlantic near 25N35W. Of note in the upper levels, an upper level trough is over the W Atlantic N of 18N between 55W-70W supporting the W Atlantic front. Another upper level trough is over the central Atlantic N of 20N between 35W-45W supporting the central Atlantic front. Expect over the next 24 hours for the W Atlantic cold front to move E and reach 31N56W with convection and showers. Also expect the central Atlantic front to dissipate. For additional information please visit