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Tropical Weather Discussion

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 103 PM EST Sun Jan 22 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GALE WARNING for the Gulf of Mexico... A cold front is in the Gulf of Mexico, passing through 29.5N90W to 22N98W. Conditions: NW gale-force winds and sea heights to 9 feet to the north of 26N to the west of the cold front. Gale-force winds are forecast to continue to the west of the cold front during the next 24 hours or so. ...GALE WARNING for the Atlantic Ocean... The 24-hour forecast consists of a cold front from 31N76W to 23N80W. Expect SW gale-force winds and sea heights ranging from 12 feet to 18 feet to the north of 26N within 90 NM to the east of the cold front. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH... The Monsoon Trough passes through Liberia near 05N08W to 04N20W. The ITCZ continues from 04N20W, to the equator along 27W, to 03S34W. Convective precipitation: Isolated moderate to locally strong from 05N southward from 10W eastward. Isolated moderate elsewhere from 10N southward between Africa and 60W. ...DISCUSSION... ...THE GULF OF MEXICO... A shallow cold front is moving through the Gulf of Mexico. It is along a line from SE Louisiana, into the NW Gulf of Mexico, to the coast of Mexico near 22N99W. Middle level-to-upper level W and SW wind flow spans the Gulf of Mexico, surrounded by comparatively drier air in subsidence. Convective precipitation: isolated moderate from 27N northward between 86W and 88W. Severe weather already occurred over land in the SE U.S.A. during the early morning hours of today. ...LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER FOR THE OFFSHORE OIL PLATFORM SITES THAT ARE IN THE AREA WHOSE BOUNDARIES ARE FROM 27N NORTHWARD AND FROM 88W WESTWARD... The cold front passes through 30N89W 25N93W 22N98W. VFR conditions from 89W westward. MVFR elsewhere. LOW LEVEL CLOUD CEILINGS AND WEATHER...FOR THE COASTAL PLAINS OF THE U.S.A. FROM THE DEEP SOUTH OF TEXAS TO FLORIDA... The cold front passes through 30N89W 25N93W 22N98W. VFR conditions are in TEXAS and LOUISIANA to the west of the cold front. MISSISSIPPI: areas of light rain. ALABAMA: IFR/MVFR conditions and rain and thunder. FLORIDA: IFR/MVFR, and rain and thunder, from Marianna westward. MVFR elsewhere from Cross City westward, and from Brooksville to the Fort Myers. ...THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Upper level SW wind flow curves anticyclonically from Central America and South America, across the Caribbean Sea. Middle level- to-upper level cyclonic wind flow is in the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea. A stationary front is dissipating from 25N50W in the Atlantic Ocean, to 20N59W, to 17N66W in the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean and in the Caribbean Sea from 16N northward between 40W and 74W, and from 16N northward between 74W and 82W. 24-HOUR rainfall amounts, for the period ending at 22/1200 UTC... according to the PAN AMERICAN TEMPERATURE AND PRECIPITATION TABLES...MIATPTPAN/SXCA01 KNHC...0.38 in Trinidad. ...HISPANIOLA... Middle level-to-upper level NW wind flow is moving across Hispaniola. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is apparent in water vapor imagery, across the entire area. Rainshowers are possible in the coastal waters from 16N to the coast between the Mona Passage and 74W. SURFACE OBSERVATIONS...for Port-au-Prince in Haiti: VFR. for the DOMINICAN REPUBLIC: Barahona: VFR. Santo Domingo/La Romana/Punta Cana: VFR. Santiago/Puerto Plata: VFR. The GFS MODEL forecast for 250 MB shows that mostly NW wind flow will move across the area during the next 48 hours, with a N Colombia-to-Yucatan Peninsula ridge. Some W wind flow is possible during the middle of the 48-hour forecast period. The ridge eventually will shift westward and extend from the eastern Pacific Ocean toward the NW corner of the Caribbean Sea. The GFS MODEL forecast for 500 MB shows that NE wind flow, with an E-to-W oriented ridge, will move across the area at the start of the 48-hour forecast period. An anticyclonic circulation center will move through the southern sections of the island during the second half of day one. A trough will move across Hispaniola during much of day two, giving way to NW wind flow after the trough has cleared Hispaniola. The GFS MODEL forecast for 700 mb shows that an anticyclonic circulation center will start on top of the SE Bahamas at the beginning of the 48-hour forecast period. Expect N-to-NE wind flow across Hispaniola during the first 6 hours to 12 hours. The anticyclonic circulation center will move well to the NE in the Atlantic Ocean, giving way to southerly wind flow for the rest of day one. A trough will move across the area during day two. ...THE ATLANTIC OCEAN... A deep layer central Atlantic Ocean trough is supporting a stationary front that passes through 32N42W to 25N50W. The stationary front is dissipating from 25N50W to 20N59W, to 17N66W in the NE corner of the Caribbean Sea. Convective precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong from 25N northward between 36W and 47W. Rainshowers are possible elsewhere in the Atlantic Ocean and in the Caribbean Sea from 16N northward between 40W and 74W. A surface ridge, that is to the east of the central Atlantic Ocean stationary front, extends from a 1029 mb high pressure center that is near 34N23W, to 23N32W, and to 15N50W. A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 24N70W, just to the east of the Bahamas. Surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the area that is to the west and northwest of the stationary front. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine