Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jul 11 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 90W north of 08N, moving westward around 10 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted north of 12N and east of 93W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 108W north of 08N, moving westward around 5 to 10 kt. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 13N to 16N between 104W and 109W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 119W from 07N to 15N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 119W and 121W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 129W from 05N to 14N, moving westward around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 129W and 131W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from coastal Panama near 10N85W to 09N130W. The ITCZ continues from 09N130W to beyond 08N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring north of 05N and east of 89W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 12N between 95W and 99W, and from 07N to 12N between 121W and 126W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough has been analyzed over the northern Gulf of California to 27N111W, and recent scatterometer satellite data show and fresh to locally strong S to SE winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft through the Gulf. Elsewhere, ridging extends across the waters offshore of Baja California, where moderate NW winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft in NW swell prevail. Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft in S swell are noted offshore of southern Mexico. For the forecast, fresh to strong S to SE winds will occur across the central and northern Gulf of California into early Sat as troughing prevails over the region. Moderate to locally fresh winds will then pulse in this area into early next week. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh NW are expected over the Baja California waters into early Sat as high pressure prevails to the northwest. Winds will diminish on Sat as the high weakens. Looking ahead, moderate to fresh N gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo as low pressure prevails over northern Colombia. Gentle to locally moderate winds are noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. To the south, moderate S to SW winds are observed via scatterometer data. A long period S to SW swell is moving through the regional waters, promoting seas of 4 to 7 ft, with locally rough seas to 8 ft occurring south of the Galapagos Islands, as captured by recent altimeter satellite data. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong E to NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through Sat morning as low pressure dominates the south-central Caribbean. Winds will diminish for the rest of the weekend before winds restrengthen early next week. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SW winds will occur south of the monsoon trough into next week. A long period S to SW swell will promote rough seas over the equatorial waters today, with seas subsiding this weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1033 mb high, centered north of the area near 40N141W, extends ridging through the eastern Pacific waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Scatterometer data show moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds occurring in this region, and accompanying seas of 4 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, a long period mixed SW and SE swell is moving through the equatorial waters, promoting rough seas of 8 to 10 ft south of 05N, as displayed on altimeter data. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are noted in this area. For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas are expected north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ into early next week as ridging prevails over the eastern Pacific. Elsewhere, rough seas over the equatorial waters will slowly subside today, before another modest swell may produce rough seas south of the equator Sun into early next week. Moderate to fresh SE winds will occur south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ through the middle of next week.