Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jul 11 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 89W north of 08N, moving west around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted north of 12N and east of 90W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 108W north of 08N, moving westward around 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 18N between 103W and 108W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 118W from 07N to 15N, moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 117W and 120W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 128.5W from 05N to 14N, moving westward around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 15N between 121W and 132W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from coastal Panama near 09N84W to 09N130W. The ITCZ continues from 09N130W to beyond 09N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring north of 05N and east of 85W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 13N between 92W and 101W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough has been analyzed over the northern Gulf of California into Baja California Sur, and fresh to locally strong S to SE winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft are noted through the Gulf. Elsewhere, ridging extends through the waters offshore of Baja California, where moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in NW swell prevail. Otherwise, gentle to locally moderate winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft in S swell are noted offshore of southern Mexico. For the forecast, fresh to strong S to SE winds will occur across the central and northern Gulf of California into early Sat as troughing prevails over the region. Moderate to locally fresh winds will then pulse in this area into early next week. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh NW are expected over the Baja California waters into early Sat as high pressure prevails to the northwest. Winds will diminish through Sat as the high weakens. Looking ahead, moderate to fresh N gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh E to NE winds are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo as low pressure prevails over northern Colombia. Gentle to locally moderate winds are noted elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. To the south, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are occurring. A long period S to SW swell is moving through the regional waters, promoting seas of 4 to 7 ft, with locally rough seas to 8 ft occurring south of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, moderate to fresh E to NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo through Sat morning as low pressure dominates the south-central Caribbean. Winds will diminish for the rest of the weekend before winds restrengthen by early next week. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SW winds will occur south of the monsoon trough into next week. A long period S to SW swell will promote rough seas over the equatorial waters through Fri, with seas subsiding this weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1034 high, centered north of the area near 39N141W, extends ridging through the eastern Pacific waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are occurring in this region, with accompanying seas of 4 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, a long period mixed SW and SE swell is moving through the equatorial waters, promoting rough seas of 8 to 10 ft south of 05N. Moderate to fresh SE winds are noted in this area. For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas are expected north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ into early next week as ridging prevails over the eastern Pacific. Elsewhere, rough seas over the equatorial waters will persist through Fri morning before subsiding into Sat. Another modest swell may produce rough seas south of the equator Sun into early next week. Moderate to fresh SE winds will occur south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ through the middle of next week.