Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jul 18 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis near 123W from 06N to 17N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen from 06N to 16N between 111W and 130W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northwest Colombia to 08N83W to 08N110W to 11N140W. The ITCZ begins and continues beyond 11N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 08N between 78W and 90W, and from 06N to 14N between 130W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 05N to 12N between 98W and 110W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong N to NE winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Elsewhere, locally moderate or weaker winds continue along with seas of 4 to 6 ft in long-period southwest swell, except NW swell in the outer Baja California offshore waters. In the Gulf of California, moderate SE winds are over the northern Gulf N of 30N while light to gentle winds prevail along the remainder Gulf along with slight seas. Locally moderate NW winds are along the coastal waters from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lucas. For the forecast, moderate southeast winds will pulse over the northern Gulf of California, reaching moderate to fresh speeds Sun morning as a low pressure develops just north of the area. Moderate to locally fresh southeast winds will then prevail through Tue night as the low remains stationary. Pulsing fresh to strong north gap winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed night as a surface trough is expected to move from the Yucatan Peninsula to Veracruz for the next several days. Afterward, high pressure over the Gulf of America will shift eastward, and winds in Tehuantepec will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds. Rough seas are forecast to develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region tonight through Sat night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas with these winds are 7 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh southerly winds are over the waters between Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands along with seas of 6 to 7 ft in south to southwest swell. Light and variable winds are elsewhere across the Central America offshore waters. Seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft in south to southwest swell. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong northeast to east winds will continue in the Gulf of Papagayo through Wed night with periods of rough seas. Moderate winds associated with this gap wind event will continue to affect the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala through mid-week. Otherwise, gentle to moderate southerly winds will continue between Ecuador and The Galapagos Islands through Wed night along with moderate seas. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure of 1033 mb is analyzed well northwest of the discussion area at 42N147W. A ridge extends from the high center SSE to 20N and 115W. A tropical waves is south of the ridge near 123W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the wave is allowing for moderate to fresh northeast to east winds to exist from north of the monsoon trough to 19N between 115W and 130W. Seas over these waters are 7 to 8 ft. Gentle to moderate northeast to east trades are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. South of the monsoon, winds are moderate to fresh and seas to 7 ft in SE swell. For the forecast, the moderate to fresh northeast to east trades will change little north of the monsoon trough and the ITCZ through early Sat, then shift to the western part of the area as the gradient between a tropical wave and the high pressure tightens. Guidance suggests that seas may reach around 9 ft with the tighter gradient over the western part of the area early Sun through Wed and with increasing winds to strong speeds.