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Tropical Weather Discussion

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1240 UTC Sat Apr 29 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N95W TO 08.5N95W TO 06N100W. The ITCZ extends from 06N100W to 00N125W to 03N135W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm south of the ITCZ between 100W and 106W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Latest observational data depict moderate to fresh winds prevail off the coast of Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the far northern portion of the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere over the forecast waters. Seas are in the 8-11 ft range over the coastal waters off the coast of Baja California Norte, 6-7 ft off the coast of Baja California Sur, 3-4 ft over the northern Gulf of California, 1-3 ft over the remainder of the Gulf of California, and 4-6 ft over the waters off southwestern and southern Mexico. Winds will diminish off the coast of Baja California today, with gentle to moderate winds prevailing over this area through early next week. Winds will further diminish, to light to gentle, through midweek. A cold front will spread across the Gulf of California today, spreading the fresh to strong winds southward. The front will dissipate by Sunday with associated winds diminishing below advisory criteria. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. Seas off the coast of Baja California Norte will subside below 8 ft by Sun. Afterwards seas will remain below 8 ft through the middle of next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds will prevail over the forecast waters through the middle of next week. Long period southwest swell of 5 to 7 ft will persist over the southern forecast waters through early next week, while seas in the 3-5 ft range will prevail elsewhere. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1029 mb centered north of the area near 37N134W extends a ridge southeast to near 15N111W. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is maintaining gentle to moderate trades north of the ITCZ, with seas in the 6-7 ft range. Northerly swell is propagating into the northern waters, with seas 8 ft or greater north of 22N between 120W and 128W. The northerly swell over this area will combined with southwesterly swell to maintain seas in the 6-8 ft range over this area through the middle of next week. Cross equatorial southwesterly swell will propagate into the eastern north Pacific waters with seas in the 7-8 ft range generally south of 10N between 93W and 120W. Seas will subside below 8 ft over this area early next week. Elsewhere, winds and seas will remain below advisory criteria through the middle of next week.