Tropical Weather Discussion
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0236 UTC Tue Feb 21 2017 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning...High pressure will build across Mexico in the wake of a frontal system that will enter the Gulf waters during the next 24-36 hours. The pressure gradient generated between these features will help to produce the next Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event. This event will be brief as winds peak near minimal gale-force on Tuesday night through early Wednesday morning. Winds will diminish below gale-force on Wednesday as the high pressure ridge shifts quickly eastward across the Gulf of Mexico. Refer to the High Seas Forecast product under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC for additional details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ extends from 09N125W to beyond 04N140W. No significant convection. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see above for more on the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. High pressure of 1024 mb is centered near 29N119W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the offshore waters along the coast of Baja California while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Primarily NW swell will continue to push SE along the southern portion of the Baja Peninsula and the Mexican coast to near Manzanillo. This swell will subside as it continues moving SE. Seas of 8-11 ft are expected across this area. Seas of 4-6 ft are found over the remainder of the offshore Pacific waters. Seas are generally 1-2 ft in the Gulf of California. Seas will continue to subside off the coast of the Baja California, falling below 8 ft by early Tuesday morning. A cold front will weaken and dissipate W of Baja but a fresh round of NW swell associated with the front will propagate into the area and cause seas to rebuild above 8 ft off the coast of Baja California Norte by Tuesday afternoon. In the wake of the front a high pressure will strengthen W of the Baja California peninsula during the second half of this week. This will strengthen the winds along the Baja coast during this time frame. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Winds will pulse from moderate to locally fresh during the overnight hours through Tuesday night. Winds will then diminish by midweek. Gulf of Panama: North winds will pulse from moderate to fresh tonight. Otherwise, winds will be in light to gentle range. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1024 mb high remains centered over the northern waters near 29N119W. A cold front is moving through the NW waters and extends from 30N127W to 21N140W. Moderate to fresh winds are present W of the front and N of 28N within 45 nm E of the front. NW swells associated with the front continue to propagate SE across the forecast waters. Seas will peak near 18 ft over the far NW waters at this time before they start to subside through Tuesday. The front will continue to move eastward while weakening, and is expected to eventually dissipate by late Tuesday. Winds associated to the front will diminish by then. NW swell will continue to propagate SE. An area of seas of 8 ft or greater will merge with the area currently SW of Baja by Tuesday evening, covering most of the forecast area. Seas less that 8 ft will prevail from late Wednesday through the end of the week.