Tropical Weather Outlook

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 200 AM EDT Sun Aug 20 2017 For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico: The National Hurricane Center has issued the last advisory on Harvey, which has degenerated into a tropical wave over the central Caribbean Sea. Disorganized showers and thunderstorms over the central Caribbean Sea are associated with the remnants of Harvey. Unfavorable upper-level winds and dry air are expected to inhibit development today. Environmental conditions could become a little more conducive for regeneration by Monday when the system moves west-northwestward over the northwest Caribbean Sea, and interests in northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, and the Yucatan peninsula should monitor the progress of this system. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...30 percent * Formation chance through 5 days...medium...40 percent A trough of low pressure located a couple of hundred miles north of the Leeward Islands continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are not expected to be conducive for development of this system during the next couple of days while it moves west-northwestward at 15 to 20 mph. Conditions could become slightly more conducive for development once the system is near the northern Bahamas or Florida later this week. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...20 percent. A large area of cloudiness and disorganized thunderstorms located about 1000 miles east of the Leeward Islands is associated with a trough of low pressure. The system is currently embedded in a dry air mass, and upper-level winds are expected to become too strong to support development in a couple of days. Therefore, tropical cyclone formation is not likely while this system moves northwestward at about 15 mph. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 5 days...low...10 percent.