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Hurricane Sally Continues to Grind Slowly Toward Mobile

Tuesday September 15, 2020 5:38 PM EDT

Hurricane Sally continued to grind its way slowly north toward Mobile on Tuesday afternoon.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Sally located at latitude 29.5°N and longitude 88.1°W which put it about 85 miles (135 km) south of Mobile, Alabama.  Sally was moving toward the north at 2 m.p.h. (3 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (120 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 979 mb.

A Hurricane Warning was in effect for the portion coast from Bay St. Louis, Mississippi to Navarre, Florida.  Tropical Storm Warnings were in effect for the portions of the coast from Grand Isle, Louisiana to Bay St. Louis, Mississippi and from Navarre to Indian Pass, Florida.

Hurricane Sally did not change a lot on Tuesday.  A ragged eye with a diameter of 30 miles (48 km) was at the center of Sally.  The eye was surrounded by a broken ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms.  Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Sally.  The strongest rainbands were in the northern half of the hurricane.  Bands in the southern half of the circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds.  Storms near the center generated upper level divergence which pumped mass away to the northeast of the hurricane.  Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of circulation.  Winds to tropical storm force extended out 130 miles (210 km) from the center.

Hurricane Sally was moving around the western end of a subtropical high pressure system over the western Atlantic Ocean.  The steering winds around Sally were weak, but they were pushing the hurricane slowly toward the north.  On its anticipated track Hurricane Sally will make landfall near Mobile Bay on Wednesday morning.  Any small wobble to the left or to the right could affect the place of landfall.  An upper level trough over the western U.S. will move east during the next couple of days.  The trough will turn Sally more toward the east after it moves inland.

The intensity of Hurricane Sally may not change much in the 12 hours until it makes landfall.  Sally will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperature is near 30°C.  However, the circulation will pull drier air into the southern part of the hurricane.  In addition, the eastern edge of the approaching upper level trough will produce some vertical wind shear.  The positive impact of warm water will be balanced by the negative impacts of drier air and slight shear.  So, the environment is likely to be neutral for intensification.  Hurricane Sally will start to weaken after the center moves inland.

Hurricane Sally was already producing water rises along the Central Gulf Coast.  A storm surge of up to 6 to 9 feet (2 to 3 meters) could occur near and to the east of where the center makes landfall.  Sally will cause mostly minor wind damage.  A prolonged period of strong winds could cause widespread power outages over southwestern Alabama and northwestern Florida.  Since Hurricane Sally will be moving slowly, it will drop heavy rain over southern Alabama and northwestern Florida.  Flash flooding will be likely in areas that receive the heaviest rainfall.

Elsewhere over the Atlantic Ocean, Hurricane Paulette continued to speed away from Bermuda, Tropical Storm Teddy was well on its way to becoming a hurricane and Tropical Storm Vicky was weakening over the eastern Atlantic.  At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Paulette was located at latitude 39.5°N and longitude 55.0°W which put it about 740 miles (1190 km) northeast of Bermuda.  Paulette was moving toward the east-northeast at 30 m.p.h. (48 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 970 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Teddy was located at latitude 14.6°N and longitude 47.9°W which put it about 895 miles (1440 km) east of the Lesser Antilles.  Teddy was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (20 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 997 mb.

At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Vicky was located at latitude 21.2°N and longitude 32.1°W which put it about 640 miles (1030 km) northwest of the Cabo Verde Islands.  Vicky was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h).  The maximum sustained wind speed was 45 m.p.h. (75 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 60 m.p.h. (95 km/h).  The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.