Tropical Storm Erick formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean south of Mexico early on Tuesday. The government of Mexico issued a Hurricane Watch for the portion of the coast. At 8:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Erick was located at latitude 12.1°N and longitude 93.8°W which put the center about 515 miles (830 km) southeast of Acapulco, Mexico. Erick was moving toward the west-northwest at 12 m.p.h. (19 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1005 mb.
A Hurricane Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahias de Huatulco to Punta Maldonado, Mexico.
A Tropical Storm Watch was in effect for the portion of the coast from Bahias de Huatulco to Salina Cruz, Mexico.
A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean strengthened during Monday night and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Erick. The circulation around Tropical Storm Erick exhibited more organization on Tuesday morning. Bands of thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Erick’s circulation. Storms near the center of Erick generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.
Tropical Storm Erick will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 36 hours. Erick will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Central America and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Erick will intensify during the next 36 hours. Erick could rapidly intensify to a hurricane by Wednesday.
Tropical Storm Erick will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Central America and southern Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Erick toward the northwest during the next 36 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Erick will move toward the coast of southern Mexico. Erick could make landfall in southern Mexico between Acapulco and Punta Maldonado on Thursday.
Tropical Storm Erick will be a hurricane when it makes landfall on the coast of Mexico. Erick will bring strong winds and heavy rain to parts of Oaxaca, Guerrero and Michoacan. Heavy rain will cause flash floods in some locations. Tropical Storm Erick could also cause a storm surge of up to 10 feet (3 meters) along the coast.
