Hurricane Flossie strengthened to Category 2 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean southwest of Mexico on Tuesday morning. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Hurricane Flossie was located at latitude 17.4°N and longitude 105.9°W which put the center about 150 miles (240 km) southwest of Manzanillo, Mexico. Flossie was moving toward the northwest at 10 m.p.h. (16 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 120 m.p.h. (195 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 974 mb.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Playa Perula, Mexico.
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Playa Perula to Cabo Corrientes, Mexico. A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Punta San Telmo to Zihuatanejo, Mexico.
The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the center of Hurricane Flossie on Tuesday morning. A circular eye was visible at the center of Flossie’s circulation on satellite images. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the core of Hurricane Flossie. Storms near the center of Flossie generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane in all directions. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.
The area of hurricane force winds speeds in Hurricane Flossie increased on Tuesday. Winds to hurricane force extended out 25 miles (40 km) from the center of Flossie’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 90 miles (145 km) from the center of Hurricane Flossie.
Hurricane Flossie will move through an environment very favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Flossie will move over water where where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge over Mexico and the adjacent part of the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The upper level winds are weak near the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Flossie will intensify during the next 24 hours. Flossie could intensify rapidly at times. Hurricane Flossie is likely to strengthen to a major hurricane by Wednesday.
Hurricane Flossie will move around the southwestern part of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer the Flossie toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Flossie will move parallel to the coast of southwestern Mexico. Flossie is likely to move south of Baja California on Wednesday night.
Bands in the northeastern side of Hurricane Flossie will bring gusty winds and locally heavy rain to parts of the coast of southwestern Mexico. The heaviest rain will fall in parts of Guerrero, Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.
