Tropical Storm Ivo moved south of Baja California on Friday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Friday the center of Tropical Storm Ivo was located at latitude 20.4°N and longitude 111.2°W which put the center about 190 miles (310 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Ivo was moving toward the west at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 999 mb.
Tropical Storm Ivo exhibited much more organization on Friday after it moved south of Baja California. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the western side of the center of Ivo’s circulation. Other bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Tropical Storm Ivo. Storms near the center of Ivo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.
The circulation around Tropical Storm Ivo was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 35 miles (55 km) from the center of Ivo’s circulation.
Tropical Storm Ivo will move through an environment mostly favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Ivo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 27°C. It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce easterly winds that will blow toward the top of Ivo’s circulation. However, the winds in the lower atmosphere will also blow from the east. Since the winds in the upper and lower levels of the atmosphere will blow from the same direction, there will be less vertical wind shear. Tropical Storm Ivo is likely to intensify during the next 24 hours. Ivo could strengthen to a hurricane on Saturday. Ivo will move over cooler water on Sunday which will cause it to weaken.
Tropical Storm Ivo will move around the southern side of a high pressure system that is over Mexico and the eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Ivo toward the west during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Ivo will move away from Baja California during the weekend.
