Hurricane Erin moved north of the Dominican Republic on Sunday. At 5:00 p.m. EDT on Sunday the center of Hurricane Erin was located at latitude 21.7°N and longitude 68.5°W which put the center about 200 miles (320 km) east of Grand Turk Island. Erin was moving toward the west-northwest at 13 m.p.h. (21 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 125 m.p.h. (200 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 150 m.p.h. (240 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 946 mb.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Turks and Caicos. A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the Southeast Bahamas.
The inner end of a rainband wrapped around an existing eye and eyewall in the core of Hurricane Erin. Concentric eyewalls formed. Hurricane Erin weakened as the inflow became concentrated in the outer eyewall and the inner eyewall started to weaken. The inner eyewall was still visible in satellite and radar images. The presence of concentric eyewalls means that Hurricane Erin is still in an eyewall replacement cycle.
The outer eyewall in Hurricane Erin has a diameter of 45 miles (75 km). Bands of showers and thunderstorms are revolving around the core of Erin’s circulation. Storms near the core of Erin are generating strong upper level divergence that is pumping mass away from the hurricane.
The formation of concentric eyewalls increased the size of the circulation around Hurricane Erin. Winds to hurricane force extended out 50 miles (80 km) from the center of Erin’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 200 miles (320 km) from the center of Hurricane Erin.
The Hurricane Intensity Index (HII) for Hurricane Erin is 23.6. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 38.2. Hurricane Erin is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Harvey in 2017.
Hurricane Erin will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Erin will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 29°C. It will move through a region where the upper level winds are weak and there will be little vertical wind shear. The eyewall replacement cycle is likely to prevent Hurricane Erin from intensifying quickly. However, once the inner eyewall dissipates and the outer eyewall starts to contract, Erin could strengthen rapidly.
Hurricane Erin will move around the southwestern side of a high pressure system over the Atlantic Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Erin toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, the center of Hurricane Storm Erin will pass northeast of the Turks and Caicos and the Southeast Bahamas on Monday.
Bands in the western side of Hurricane Erin could bring gusty winds and heavy rain to the Turks and Caicos and to the Southeast Bahamas. Bands in the southern side of Erin’s circulation could drop heavy rain on parts of Haiti and the Dominican Republic. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.
