Tropical Storm Octave formed over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean far to the south of Baja California on Tuesday. At 11:00 a.m. EDT on Tuesday the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located at latitude 9.9°N and longitude 113.5°W which put the center about 930 miles (1495 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Octave was moving toward the northwest at 5 m.p.h. (8 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 40 m.p.h. (65 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 50 m.p.h. (80 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 1004 mb.
A low pressure system over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean far to the south of Baja California strengthened on Tuesday morning and the U.S. National Hurricane Center designated the system as Tropical Storm Octave.
The circulation around Tropical Storm Octave was organizing gradually on Tuesday. Thunderstorms developed near the center of Octave’s circulation. Thunderstorms were also occurring in bands in the western side of Tropical Storm Octave. Bands in the eastern half of Octave’s circulation consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. Storms near the center of Octave began to generate upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the tropical storm.
The circulation around Tropical Storm Octave was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Octave’s circulation.
Tropical Storm Octave will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Octave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Octave’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Octave could intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.
Tropical Storm Octave will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Octave toward the north-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Octave will remain far to the south of Baja California.
