Tropical Storm Octave was spinning over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean far to the south of Baja California on Wednesday evening. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Tropical Storm Octave was located at latitude 12.2°N and longitude 117.0°W which put the center about 875 miles (1405 km) south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Octave was moving toward the west-northwest at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 65 m.p.h. (105 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 80 m.p.h. (130 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 994 mb.
Tropical Storm Octave strengthened on Wednesday. The inner end of a rainband wrapped around the southern and eastern sides of the center of Octave’s circulation. Bands of thunderstorms were in the western half of Tropical Storm Octave. The bands in the eastern part of Octave’s circulation still consisted primarily of showers and lower clouds. The storms near the center of Octave generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away to the west of the tropical storm. The removal of mass caused the surface pressure to decrease.
The circulation around Tropical Storm Octave was small. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 45 miles (75 km) from the center of Octave’s circulation.
Tropical Storm Octave will move through an environment somewhat favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Octave will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 28°C. It will move under the southern side of an upper level ridge that is over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The upper level ridge will produce northeasterly winds that will blow toward the top of Octave’s circulation. Those winds will cause moderate vertical wind shear. The vertical wind shear will inhibit intensification, but the wind shear may not be enough to prevent intensification. Tropical Storm Octave could intensify gradually during the next 24 hours.
Tropical Storm Octave will move around the western end of a high pressure system over Mexico and the Eastern North Pacific Ocean. The high pressure system will steer Octave toward the west-northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Tropical Storm Octave will remain far to the south of Baja California.
