Hurricane Polo intensified back to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale as it moved south of Mexico on Wednesday evening.
At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Polo was located at latitude 16.0°N and longitude 104.2°W which put the center about 240 miles (390 km) south-southeast of Manzanillo, Mexico. Polo was moving toward the northwest at 6 m.p.h. (10 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 160 m.p.h. (260 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 190 m.p.h. (305 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 923 mb.
A Tropical Storm Warning is in effect for the portion of the coast from Tecpan de Galeana to Manzanillo, Mexico
A Tropical Storm Watch is in effect for the portion of the coast from Manzanillo to Playa Perula, Mexico.
Hurricane Polo intensified back to Category 5 on the Saffir-Simpson Scale after an eyewall replacement cycle was completed on Wednesday. A new circular eye with a diameter of 25 miles (40 km) was at the center of Polo’s circulation. The eye was surrounded by a ring of thunderstorms and the strongest winds were occurring in that ring of storms. Bands of showers and thunderstorms were revolving around the center of Hurricane Polo. Storms near the center of Polo generated upper level divergence that pumped mass away from the hurricane. The removal of mass in the upper levels caused the surface pressure to start to decrease again.
The circulation around Hurricane Polo was very symmetrical. Winds to hurricane force extended out 40 miles (65 km) from the center of Polo’s circulation. Winds to tropical storm force extended out 115 miles (185 km) from the center of Hurricane Polo.
The Hurricane Intensify Index (HII) for Hurricane Polo is 35.0. The Hurricane Size Index (HSI) is 14.6 and the Hurricane Wind Intensity Size Index (HWISI) is 49.6. Hurricane Polo is similar in size and intensity to Hurricane Andrew when Andrew hit South Florida in 1992.
Hurricane Polo will move through an environment that will be favorable for intensification during the next 24 hours. Polo will move over water where the Sea Surface Temperatures are near 30°C. It will move under the middle of an upper level ridge that is south of Mexico. The upper level winds are weak in the middle of the ridge and there will be little vertical wind shear. Hurricane Polo could continue to intensify until another eyewall replacement cycle begins.
Hurricane Polo will move around the western part of a high pressure system that is over Mexico. The high pressure system will steer Polo toward the northwest during the next 24 hours. On its anticipated track, Hurricane Polo will move closer to the coast of southwest Mexico. The strongest part of Hurricane Polo is forecast to pass west of the coast of Mexico.
Even though the strongest part of Hurricane Polo is forecast to pass west of the coast of Mexico, bands in the northern side of Polo will bring strong winds and heavy rains to the coast of southwestern Mexico. Strong winds and heavy rain could affect parts of Colima, Michoacan, and western Guerrero. Heavy rain could cause flash floods in some locations.
Elsewhere over the Eastern North Pacific Ocean, Hurricane Odalys continued to intensify gradually far to the southwest of Baja California. At 11:00 p.m. EDT on Wednesday the center of Hurricane Odalys was located at latitude 15.6°N and longitude 127.7°W which put the center about 1205 miles (1940 km) west-southwest of the the southern tip of Baja California. Odalys was moving toward the east at 7 m.p.h. (11 km/h). The maximum sustained wind speed was 85 m.p.h. (135 km/h) and there were wind gusts to 100 m.p.h. (160 km/h). The minimum surface pressure was 978 mb.
