Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion

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Southeast Alaska Forecast Discussion National Weather Service Juneau AK 400 PM AKST Sun Nov 2 2025 .SYNOPSIS... Key Messages: - Onshore flow continues with persistent showers through the upcoming weekend. - Gusty winds over land as another front pushes through Friday afternoon and into the evening. - Isolated thunderstorms, primarily for the SE gulf Friday night on the back side of the front. - An active week returns as multiple low pressure systems move into the gulf sending fronts over the panhandle. - A low enters the gulf Tuesday increasing bringing gales to the southern gulf and increasing winds across the panhandle. && .SHORT TERM...Forecast is mostly on track through this evening, with the incoming shortwave nicely visible on satellite near Prince of Wales Island. One change going forward is the addition of isolated thunderstorms on the western slope of Prince of Wales Island. With skinny cape present, westerly winds exceeding 30 knots up to 850 mb, and vorticity advection aloft, the thought was some enhanced convection from orographic lifting on the western slope of PoW. Not expecting any strong winds greater than 30 knots due to lack of moisture limiting evaporative rain cooling aloft. Otherwise, will see a diminishing trend in showers from north to south this evening, with showers in the central and southern panhandle slowing down tremendously as the shortwave passes into Canada. Similar story with the winds, with wind gusts on the downward trend beginning around 6 PM tonight with the departing energy moving into Canada. Tomorrow will see a weak shortwave moving up from the south, bringing another round of moist weather and increased winds to 30 mph over land for the southern panhandle. Not expecting rain or wind to continue significantly into the afternoon hours, as the weak trough is sheared apart by the mountains in the area. PoPs significantly fall apart into the evening as the next system moves up from the south. .LONG TERM... A more moist and active pattern arrives Tuesday as multiple low pressure systems move north into the gulf of Alaska. These lows will send a series of fronts and shortwaves over the panhandle allowing precipitation chances to remain high into the end of the week. 24 hour precipitation amounts remain on the lower side for this time of year, but the southern panhandle is looking to receive the most rain as these fronts move north. Land and marine winds will have the most impact for the panhandle Tuesday into Wednesday. On Tuesday night, winds across the southern gulf of Alaska increase to gale force around 35 kts as the low begins to move north. As the low begins to move into the gulf, and high pressure around 1015 to 1020 mb builds over BC, the east to west facing channels will see a more significant increase in winds. This will also create easterly winds across the Coastal Mountain Range. Those easterly winds will help to increase wind strengths near Juneau, Taku Inlet, and Stephens Passage. Although these winds will not the strongest mountain wave, Juneau has a 40% chance of seeing gusts up to 40 mph late Tuesday into Wednesday morning. Other inside waters are likely to experience fresh to strong breezes of northerly 15 to 25 kts as the low moves north. While the parent low in the gulf is expected to be fully stacked and well occluded, multiple shortwave troughs aloft continuously move energy northward for the rest of the week. Which allows for uncertainty to remain in the forecast, into the end of the week. However, the week will remain active with the southern panhandle the most likely to see the most rain and wind into next weekend. && .AVIATION...Showers continue across the panhandle this afternoon bringing VFR to MVFR conditions with an occasional IFR shower. CIGs and VIS continue to fluctuate with some showers dropping VIS down to 4-5 SM while CIGs remain AoB 3000 ft during the showers before popping up to AoA 3500 outside of these showers. Besides the worse CIGs and VIS, the showers have been bringing gusty winds as well as they pass over. Most places have seen gusts up to 20-25 kt today. The exception is the northern Lynn Canal area which has been seeing gusts in the 30-40 kt range and should continue through this evening before decreasing. Headed into the latter half of the TAF period, the showers are expected to continue bringing diminished flying weather. With the convective showers, AAWU flight graphics continue to highlight the potential for some turbulence and icing. && .MARINE... Outside Waters: Light to moderate pockets of showers continue to develop through the gulf with fresh southwesterly flow diminishing through Sunday night. Winds will begin turning southerly overnight, becoming southeasterly Monday morning and eventually turning easterly by Monday night. As this flow starts to turn, an area of shortwave troughing will attempt to spin up along the southeastern coast of the panhandle which will keep winds going into Clarence Strait and off the coast of PoW Island between 11 to 16 kts overnight. Another low pressure system jumps into the southern gulf Monday, sending a shortwave of elevated winds into the southern gulf overnight. East to southeasterly strong breezes to near gales (22 to 33 kts) will spread north through the gulf Tuesday and stay elevated as the fully developed gale force front moves in Tuesday evening. Wave heights in the gulf will rapidly fall from 12 to 14 ft to around 5 to 7 ft by Monday before the next system southeasterly 15 to 20 ft waves in the southern gulf, continuing to increase through Tuesday. 8 to 10 ft southwesterly swell with a wave period around 11 seconds will follow suit, with the system bringing in 15 to 20 ft southeasterly swell with a period around 14 seconds. Inner Channels: Elevated fresh to strong breezes (17 to 27 kts) in the inner channels are beginning to weaken through Sunday afternoon as the pressure gradient turns more easterly. Northern Lynn Canal and Stephens Passage are still seeing areas of near gale force winds (28 to 33 kts) with gale force gusts (34 to 40 kts) going into Sunday evening. By Monday morning, channel winds will have largely diminished to below 10 kts with the exception of a small shortwave attempting to bring moderate breezes (11 to 16 kts) up Clarence Strait. Winds will start picking up again overnight Monday into Tuesday as the next system moves into the southern gulf. Outflow winds will pick up Tuesday and continue into Wednesday, with multiple channels seeing near gale force winds. && .AJK WATCHES/WARNINGS/ADVISORIES... PUBLIC...Strong Wind until 6 PM AKST this evening for AKZ318. MARINE...Small Craft Advisory for PKZ012-022-053-641>644-651-652-661>664- 671-672.