Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Feb 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Large Northwest Swell Western Atlantic: Large NW swell has been generated by a deep low pressure area (previously a hurricane force low and now a storm force low) over the NW Atlantic offshore of the Canadian Maritimes. This NW swell is propagating across the NW discussion waters with and behind a strong cold front, with very rough seas of 12-17 ft over the waters N of a line from 31N62W to 26N74W to 31N77W. This large swell producing seas of 12 ft and higher will continue to propagate southeastward over the waters N of 25N, reaching as far east as 50W through Wed morning before subsiding below 12 ft. Large Northwest Swell Central Atlantic: Large NW to N swell, generated by a former storm force low NE of the area (currently a gale force low) is bringing very rough seas of 12-18 ft over the waters N of a line from 31N48W to 26N48W to 25N40W to 30N30W. This swell will shift S and SE through midweek to cover the waters N of 16N and E of 45W through Wed morning before subsiding below 12 ft Wed afternoon. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 11.5N16W and continues southwestward to 04N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04N19W to the coast of Brazil near 01.5S46W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 03N between 06W and 51W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1030 mb high pressure system over the Mississippi Valley extends southward into the Gulf of America and southeastward across S Florida and the Bahamas, behind the recent cold front, resulting in fresh to locally strong northerly winds and rough seas to 12 ft in N swell east of 90W. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds and rough seas to 10 ft in NE swell are found across the SW Gulf and into the Bay of Campeche. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. The dry and cold continental airmass moving across the basin sustain widespread stratocumulus clouds south of 26N, while generally clear skies prevail north of 26N. Moisture banking along the eastern flanks of the Sierra Madre Oriental may result in locally heavy rainfall. For the forecast, winds and seas will continue to subside from NW to SE through this evening, as the high pressure shifts E-SE and into the Atlantic by early Wed. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop across the NW Gulf Tue night and expand across the SW and central Gulf Wed into Thu, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf Thu night. This next front is expected to stall from the Florida Big Bend to the central Mexican coastal waters Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from NW Haiti through the Windward Passage to the east-central coast of Nicaragua. Scattered showers continue near the front. Moisture banking against the mountainous terrain in Central America may result in locally heavy rainfall across Honduras, Guatemala and Belize. A pre-frontal trough is producing some showers over Hispaniola. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas to 12 ft are occurring behind the front. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh trade winds and moderate seas are present in the remainder of the basin south of 15N. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent north of 15N. For the forecast, the cold front will slide southeastward, reaching north-central Hispaniola to SE Nicaragua Tue afternoon, before stalling on Wed from eastern Hispaniola to near the Nicaragua- Costa Rica border. The strong winds and rough seas will gradually diminish Tue night through Wed as the front weakens. Broad high pressure will develop across the central and western Atlantic Wed through Fri and bring a return to fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about Significant Swell in the western and central Atlantic. A strong cold front enters the basin near 31N60W and continues southwestward to the NW coast of Haiti then through the Windward passage. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms prevail within 90 nm E of the front. Strong NW winds and very rough seas in NW swell are N of 25N and W of the front. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds, and moderate to rough seas are elsewhere W of the front. Fresh to strong winds, and rough seas are N of 26N and E of the front to 53W. Farther east, a 1025 mb high is centered near 31N41W and extend a ridge to near 23N65W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Fresh to strong trade winds prevail S of 23N to the south of the high center, due to the pressure gradient between this high and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ. Seas in this region are 7 to 10 ft in NW to N swell. W of the ridge, Strong S to SW winds prevail N of 25N between 53W and the cold front, where seas are 7 to 12 ft in mixed swell. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere, with moderate to rough seas. For the forecast west of 55W, strong NW winds and very rough seas in NW swell will continue behind the front through this morning before winds begin to slowly diminish. The front is expected to move southeastward and weaken, reaching from 31N58W to the north- central coast of the Dominican Republic Tue evening, then stall from near 29N55W to the NE Dominican Republic Wed, before drifting W and dissipating Thu. High pressure will shift into the Atlantic behind the front Tue night through Wed, and develop a broad ridge across the region Thu through Sat.