Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Dec 19 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warning: A gale-force 1013 mb low is located near 28N57W with a weakening cold front extending southwestward through 24N62W. NE gales are occurring within 60 NM in the NW semicircle. Seas of 12 to 15 ft (3.5 to 4.5 m) are found north of 28N between 56W and 59W. While no observations were available in the core of the low, a Sentinel 3-A altimeter pass measured seas up to 12 ft near 30N57W at 1400 UTC. The low pressure is expected to become better organized and deepen later today as it moves slowly E-NE across the far NE zones. Very rough seas are expected across the W semicircle of the low center through Fri morning, with winds increasing to strong gales this evening, before the low begins to slowly weaken and gradually exits the forecast area Sat morning. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information this event. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Liberia coast near 06N11W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues westward from 05N18W to 05N40W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near both features from 03N-07N between 15W-22W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Panama and NW Colombia. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Enhanced by a pronounced mid to upper-level trough, a surface trough is causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the eastern Gulf. Fresh to strong SE to SW winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present at the northeastern Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds and 3 to 5 ft seas exist at the east- central and southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle with locally moderate SE to SW winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between a ridge across the western Atlantic and a surface trough over the eastern Gulf is producing fresh to strong SE to S winds across most of the eastern half of Gulf. These winds will shift northward into the Florida Big Bend late this afternoon and diminish. Otherwise, winds across the rest of the basin are veering to the S and SW ahead of the next cold front, which is forecast to move into the NW Gulf this evening. The front will then reach from the Florida Big Bend to NE Mexico by Fri morning, from SW Florida to NE Mexico Fri evening, then begin to lift northward and dissipate through Sat. Then, a ridge will dominate the Gulf waters this upcoming weekend into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough at the Gulf of Honduras is triggering widely scattered moderate convection near the Yucatan Channel and western Cuba. Another surface trough is causing widely scattered showers at the eastern basin and near Puerto Rico and the Virgin Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Otherwise, a trade-wind pattern continues with fresh to locally strong easterly trades and seas of 5 to 7 ft at the south-central and part of the southwestern basin. Moderate to fresh ENE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted at the north-central and eastern basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through most of the forecast period. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are expected, with the exception of gentle to moderate winds over the NW Caribbean. Large E swell will persist over the tropical Atlantic waters, through the Atlantic passages and into the eastern part of the basin through Fri. High pressure will strengthen north of the basin this upcoming weekend into early next week to bring fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean, the Windward Passage, and in the lee of Cuba. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in the western and central Atlantic. A stationary front stretches west-southwestward from the north- central Atlantic across 31N33W to 31N53W, then continues a warm front to a 1013 mb low near 28N57W. A weak cold front extends southwestward from this low to near 24N61W, then continues a shear line to 24N75W. Scattered moderate convection is flaring up near these features, north of 27N between 50W and 56W. Farther south, a surface trough is producing scattered showers east of northern Brazil from 03N to 06N between 42W and 48W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Outside the Gale Warning area and very rough seas mentioned in the Special Features section, fresh to strong NE to SE winds and seas at 6 to 10 ft are evident near and west of the cold front, including the northeastern Florida offshore waters. To the east, a 1026 mb high near 29N33W is supporting gentle to moderate SE to S winds and 8 to 10 ft in large NW swell north of 24N between 35W and 55W/cold front. For the tropical Atlantic from 06N to 24N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, fresh to strong ENE to E winds and seas of 8 to 11 ft in large NE swell dominate. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, low pressure of 1013 mb is located near 29N57W with a weakening cold front extending southwestward through 24N62W. The low pressure is expected to become better organized and deepen later today as it moves slowly E-NE across the far NE zones. Gale- force winds are already occurring within about 60 nm of the low center. Very rough seas are expected across the W semicircle of the low center through Fri morning, with winds increasing to strong gales this evening, before the low begins to slowly weaken and gradually exits the forecast area Sat morning. The next cold front will move into the NW waters Fri afternoon, reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida Sat morning, then stall and weaken from 31N60W to the NW Bahamas Sat evening. Another cold front is forecast to move into the NW waters Sun night, and reach from 31N60W to central Florida by Mon evening, and from 29N55W to SE Florida Tue morning while dissipating.