Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sun Mar 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front is moving across the northwestern zones this afternoon, and has reached from 31N70W to near Cocoa Beach Florida, and into the Gulf of America. NE winds building into the region north of the front have increased to gale-force this afternoon, with peak seas off of NE Florida and Georgia now peaking at 10-14 kt. Winds are expected to diminish slightly this evening, to below gale-force, and then become more E-NE and diminish a bit more late tonight. The front is is forecast to reach from 31N60W to SE Florida by Sun morning, and from 31N50W to Hispaniola by Mon morning before dissipating over the SE waters on Tue. Strong to near gale force NE to E winds, and rough to very rough seas to 15 ft are expected behind the front tonight through Sun morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic from the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 00N25W. The ITCZ then continues from that point to 01.5S28W to the coast of Brazil at 03S40W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of 03N between 13W and 37W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front has moved southward across the northern Gulf this afternoon, and extends from Tampa Bay to northeastern Mexico. Midday satellite scatterometer data showed fresh to strong winds N to NE behind the front. Recent buoy observations indicate seas of 3 to 6 ft within these winds. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds prevail elsewhere across the basin, where seas are 2 to 5 ft. Small clusters of scattered light showers are seen south of the front across the western Gulf. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from South Florida to the central Gulf near 25N90W by Sun morning, and move southeast of the basin late on Sun. As the front moves southward, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas will develop over eastern portions of the Gulf through Sun. The pressure gradient across the eastern Gulf will remain strong enough to sustain moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas across the southeast Gulf and the Straits of Florida through the middle of the next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the Gulf cold front and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are in the 5 to 7 ft range over these waters. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere across the central and western basin. Gentle to moderate trades are ongoing across the eastern Caribbean with moderate seas. Otherwise, isolated showers remain over the NW Caribbean, while scattered afternoon showers and isolated thunderstorms prevail across Jamaica, Hispaniola and eastern Cuba, and their adjacent coastal waters. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will combine with the Colombian low to support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas offshore Colombia through early next week. Then, high pressure following a strong cold front moving through the western Atlantic this weekend will sustain fresh to strong NE to E winds and building seas in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola, from tonight through Tue night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING. A strong cold front is entering our AOR and extends from 31N70W to near Cocoa Beach, FL. Strong to gale-force NE winds and building seas prevail N of the front. Farther east, a surface trough along 62W is supporting scattered moderate convection from 20N to 30N between 50W and 60W. A broad surface ridge continues across the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic waters to the east of the trough along 62W, centered on a 1040 mb high across the NE Atlantic. Moderate to locally fresh winds and moderate seas dominate the central and eastern basin into the tropics. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in NE swell N of 27N and E of 35W. Over the SW N Atlantic waters, winds are mainly light to gentle ahead of the approaching cold front, except for moderate to fresh E-NE winds over the Great Bahama Bank, including the approaches of the Windward Passage. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front is forecast to reach from 31N60W to SE Florida by Sun morning, and from 31N50W to Hispaniola by Mon morning, before dissipating over the SE waters on Tue. Strong to minimal gale force N to NE winds, and rough to very rough seas are expected behind the front early tonight, then will diminish to strong to near gale-force through Sun morning. Strong high pressure following the front will support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas across most of the offshore forecast waters likely through Tue night into Wed.