Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Feb 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0660 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning East of 35W: A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Canarias and Agadir Marine Zones of Meteo France until 1/00Z. For more information, please see the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiches/2 Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A robust high pressure system near the Azores is maintaining fresh to near gale-force trade winds across the eastern and central Atlantic. Wind waves generated by these winds will continue to generate seas of 8 to 13 ft across most of the waters between 20W and 60W, with highest seas E of 40W. This event will persist through early next week, while drifting southeastward. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Guinea just north of Conakry, then extends southwestward to 05N18W. An ITCZ continues from 05N18W through 02N30W to north of Fortaleza, Brazil at 01S38W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is observed from 00N to 06N and east of 30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weakening stationary front extends southwestward from northwest Florida to a 1013 mb low pressure near 27N87W. A surface trough is also seen to the south reaching from near Tampa, Florida to near 25N85W. Widely scattered showers are seen from 25N to 28N between the Florida west coast and 87W. Moderate NE to E winds and seas of 2 to 4 ft are present at the north-central Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, the weak front will slowly move southeastward and exit the basin tonight. Afterward, a strong high pressure system will build west-southwestward over the area from the North Atlantic beginning on Sun night, with the related gradient generally supporting moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the Gulf. Locally strong winds will occur at night off the northern Yucatan Peninsula Tue and Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A strong Atlantic Ridge continues to support a robust trade-wind regime across the Caribbean Sea. Scattered trade-wind showers are occurring near the Lesser Antilles. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale NE to E winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft dominate the south- central basin. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas are evident at the north-central, eastern and part of the southwestern basin. Gentle NE to SE winds and seas of 2 to 5 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, an expansive subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will support fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean over the next several days. A tighter pressure gradient will initiate gale-force winds off Colombia at night Mon through at least late next week and support locally very rough seas. Fresh to strong trades expected elsewhere across most of the central and eastern portions of the basin. In the meantime, rough seas in mixed swell will prevail in the tropical N Atlantic through the forecast period, with seas to 12 ft reaching 55W Mon. Elsewhere, little change is expected with moderate to fresh trades continuing through the period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section about a gale warning issued by Meteo-France in the eastern Atlantic. A stationary front extends southwestward from off the Carolina coast across 31N79W to beyond northern Florida. Scattered showers are occurring up to 40 nm along either side of the front. Farther south, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen north 27N between 73W and the Florida east coast. A broad 1036 mb Atlantic Ridge is supporting moderate to fresh SE to S winds and6 to 8 ft seas in moderate SE swell north of 20N and west of 50W. To the east, fresh to strong E to SE winds with 8 to 12 ft seas are present north of 20N between 35W and 50W. For the tropical Atlantic from 00N to 20N and west of 35W, fresh to strong NE to E winds and 9 to 13 ft seas are noted. For the forecast west of 55W, a shortwave trough aloft in the general area of the front is helping to support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms north of 28N between 74W and 79W. The front will resume as a weakening cold front later this morning as it slowly moves southeastward reaching from near 31N77W to central Florida this afternoon. Elsewhere, high pressure over the central Atlantic continues to maintain control over much of the western Atlantic while rough seas prevail over the SE waters. Another cold front is expected to enter the northern waters early next week and gradually shift southeastward and weaken. Fresh to near gale-force easterly winds and rough to very rough seas, peaking around 14 ft, are forecast behind the front Mon through Tue night north of 27N. High pressure will build by the middle of next week resulting in moderate to fresh winds and rough seas over much of the basin.