Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Dec 17 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0443 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Southwest N Atlantic Gale Warning: A low pressure is forecast to develop along the stationary front that extends from 28.5N55W southwestward through the SE Bahamas, then extends westward across central and western Cuba. Gale force winds are expected in the NW quadrant of the low center Thu early morning through Fri as it lifts N of our forecast region. Seas will build to 16 ft with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information this event. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 06N11W and continues westward to 05N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05N20W to 04N50W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 01N to 07N between 13W and 35W. Isolated moderate convection is seen from 02N to 05N between 44W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough over the western Gulf is supporting scattered showers north of 26N, and west of 91W. Elsewhere, a 1025 mb high pressure over southern Georgia is controlling conditions across the Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are in the SE Gulf including the Straits of Florida due to a diffuse surface trough near 85W, locally strong winds are seen near the Straits. Moderate to fresh SE winds prevail over the western Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the remainder of the basin. Seas are 6-9 ft in the SE Gulf, and 2 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas prevail across the SE waters, including the Straits of Florida, and will gradually decrease on Wed. A ridge along about 32N will dominate the Gulf region through Thu, with winds veering to the S and SW ahead of the next cold front forecast to move into the NW Gulf Wed evening. This front will reach from SW Florida to NE Mexico Fri evening, then begin to lift northward and dissipate through Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is analyzed offshore Nicaragua and Costa Rica with scattered moderate convection noted inland and just offshore Nicaragua, as well as offshore of northern Honduras. Similar convection is over the remainder of the SW Caribbean due to the combination of low-level convergence of the trade winds along with instability provided by the close proximity of the eastern Pacific Ocean monsoon trough that extends eastward across southern Costa Rica and across Panama. A frontal system just N of the basin has allowed for a slightly weaker pressure gradient than normal with moderate to fresh winds in the central Caribbean, locally strong winds are offshore northern Colombia with 1009 mb low pressure near the coast. Moderate to fresh trades prevail elsewhere across the basin. Seas are 5-7 ft in the S-central portion, and 4-6 ft elsewhere, except 3-4 ft N of 17N between 78W and 83W. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through Thu as high pressure shifts eastward into the western Atlantic. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough seas in large E swell will persist over the tropical Atlantic waters, through the Atlantic passages and into the eastern part of the basin through Thu night. High pressure will strengthen north of the basin Fri into the weekend to bring a return to fresh to strong trades across the central and southwest Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for more information on a developing Gale Warning in the Southwest N Atlantic. A stationary front extends from 28.5N55W southwestward through the SE Bahamas, then extends westward across central and western Cuba. Fresh to strong NE winds are noted S of 29N and W of the front, with moderate to fresh winds elsewhere W of the front. Seas of 8-14 ft in NW-N swell is noted W of the front to 77W, with 4-8 ft offshore northern Florida. Scattered moderate convection is noted along and within 300 nm NW of the front. A strong 1032 mb high pressure is noted N of the eastern Atlantic waters near 33N34W with a ridge reaching SW of the high and ahead of the front to 27N44W. The tight pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ supports a large area and fetch of fresh to strong winds S of 23N and E of the Lesser Antilles with resultant 8-13 ft seas. Fresh to strong winds are noted S of 31N and through the Canary Islands to the E of 20W, supporting seas of 8-16 ft. Refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website at https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details. Mainly moderate winds and 5-8 ft seas are across the remainder of the waters which is primarily between the front and the ridge axis. For the forecast W of 55W, a stationary front extends from 28.5N55W southwestward through the SE Bahamas, then extends westward across central and western Cuba. Fresh to strong N to NE winds prevail north of the front to about 28.5N. The front and these winds will generally persist through Wed before diminishing W of 65W. Large N swell will continue to move through the regional waters through tonight before subsiding from NW to SE through Thu. Frontal remnants are expected to continue across the NE zones through Wed evening, when low pressure is forecast to develop along the boundary, near 28N61W. Gale force winds are expected to develop across the NW quadrant of the low center Thu through early Fri as the low moves NE and gradually exits the forecast area. The next cold front will move into the NW waters Fri, reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida Sat morning, and from 31N55W to the central Bahamas on Sun morning. Another cold front may move off NE Florida by Sun night.