Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed May 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 36W from 03N to 14N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Most of the nearby convection is associated with the ITCZ as described below. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Africa near 11N15W and continues SW to 04N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04N19W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 50 nm of the coast of Africa between 05N and 11N. Scattered moderate convection is present S of 02N and W of 21W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends from just north of Tampa Bay to a 1013 mb low near 29N86W. A cold front then extends from the low into the SE Bay of Campeche. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring between the cold front and the W coast of Florida N of 24N. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are N and W of the fronts and surface low, while gentle or weaker winds prevail to the S and E of the fronts. Localized areas of strong E to NE winds in the far NE Gulf are confirmed by scatterometer data. Slight seas prevail across the basin, except for locally moderate seas near Veracruz. For the forecast, a stationary front extends across central Florida to a 1013 mb low near 29N86W from which transitions to a cold front that extends SW to the eastern Bay of Campeche. The cold front will stall briefly tonight and exit the SE Gulf by Wed night. Winds will be generally moderate or weaker on either side of the front, except in the vicinity of the low where fresh to strong winds are likely as indicated by recent scatterometer data. High pressure and quiescent conditions will build behind the front on Wed and Thu. Another weak cold front is forecast to enter the NE Gulf Thu night and dissipate over the E Gulf on Fri. Otherwise, southeast winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the western half of the basin this weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The subtropical ridge over the Atlantic forces fresh to strong trade winds and 5-7 ft seas across the south-central to southwest Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted across the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean along with 4-6 ft seas. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent across the remainder of the waters including the majority of the western Caribbean. No significant convection is noted in the basin, except just offshore Panama and Costa Rica near the monsoon trough extending along 10N from the eastern Pacific Ocean. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong tradewinds over the central Caribbean through the weekend, with the strongest winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh tradewinds are expected across the remainder of forecast waters through Sun night, pulsing to strong in the Gulf of Honduras Sat and Sun night. Large E swell with rough seas will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters from midweek through the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N68W to central Florida with fresh to strong NE-E winds and 5-9 ft seas in N-NE swell N of the front. Scattered moderate convection is seen N of 25N and W of 60W, enhanced by an upper level trough. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge anchored by high pressure located well N of the discussion waters. Fresh to strong trades and seas of 6-9 ft prevail S and E of a line running from the Turks and Caicos Islands to the Canary Islands. Areas N and W of this line and away from the stationary front are seeing moderate or weaker trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a stationary front extending from 31N68W to just south of Cape Canaveral, Florida will lift north of the area by Thu morning. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected west of the front with scattered showers and thunderstorms along the front. Another weak cold front will move off the NE Florida coast on Thu, extending from 31N50W to 25N72W Fri morning, from 31N72W to 26N65W on Sat morning, then E of the area Sun. Fresh to strong S winds are expected N of 27N ahead of the front.