Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Jan 1 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Large N swell generated from a gale force low N of the area is producing very rough seas greater than 12 ft over the forecast waters north of 27N between 23W and 36W. These very rough seas will subside below 12 ft today. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues to 07N22W. The ITCZ extends from 07N22W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 07N and between 18W and 34W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure is centered over the central Gulf near 24.5N92W. Light winds are in the vicinity of the high center, with light to gentle winds elsewhere W of 90W. Gentle to moderate winds are E of 90W. Seas are in the 4-5 ft range in subsiding northerly swell S of 25N, and 1-4 ft N of 25N. For the forecast, high pressure prevails across the Gulf waters, with moderate or weaker winds expected today. Fresh to occasionally strong west to southwest winds will develop over the northern Gulf Friday ahead of the next cold front. This cold front will enter the Gulf waters Saturday, then move south of the area by early next week. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A frontal boundary from the Windward Passage to Nicaragua. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-7 ft are west of the front. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-7 ft are over the southern Caribbean N of Venezuela. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the frontal boundary will gradually dissipate by Friday. Fresh north winds behind the front will diminish north to south through Fri. Rough seas in north swell over the Atlantic will subside by this evening. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for information on significant swell causing very rough seas in portions of the east-central Atlantic. A cold front extends from near 31N60W to the Windward passage. Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 7-10 ft prevail N of 27N and E of the front to 53W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-7 ft prevail W of the front. Farther east, a pair of cold fronts are moving across the northern waters, extending from a gale force low N of the area. The first front extends from 31N16W to 21N32W. The second front extends from 31N18W to 27N32W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is in the vicinity of the front, N of 27N between 14W and 24W. Fresh to strong winds on either side of the front are N of 25N between 16W and 35W. Very rough seas over these waters are discussed above. Elsewhere, rough seas greater than 8 ft cover the waters N of 23N between 18W and 42W. A 1023 mb high is centered near 28N45W. Light winds are in the vicinity of the high center. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-8 ft, prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will weaken as it moves across the eastern offshore waters today, and while the southern portion becomes stationary. Fresh to locally strong southwest winds and rough seas will prevail ahead of the front, generally north of 27N, today. Fresh to locally strong west winds and rough seas will develop off the coast of northern Florida today as a cold front passes north of the waters. Weak high pressure will build over the western tropical Atlantic, with moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas over the rest of the waters for late week. Another front will move across the basin starting late on Sat, reaching the eastern offshore waters Mon and and Mon night while weakening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are expected ahead and behind this front.