Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Apr 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic near 08N13W and continues SW to 05N19W. The ITCZ extends from 05N19W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 05N and E of 30W, as well as off the coast of northern Brazil. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A ridge extends SE into the basin. Under the influence of this ridge, moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas prevail, except in the Straits of Florida where strong E winds are ongoing. Scattered showers are ongoing in the NW Gulf as a cold front approaches the region and convergence at the surface increases. For the forecast, a cold front will push offshore the Texas coast tonight and move slowly southeastward across the basin through Mon night. Ahead of the front, fresh to strong east winds will prevail in the Florida Straits into tonight. Behind the front, strong northeast winds and rough seas are expect across portions of the western Gulf Sun into Mon, with these conditions spreading into the NE Gulf Mon night through Wed. Scattered showers and thunderstorms may precede the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a ridge N of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh trades over the most basin, except for locally strong NE winds offshore Colombia. Seas are generally moderate, except locally rough seas within the strong winds offshore Colombia. Convergent surface winds are leading to isolated showers and thunderstorms in the eastern Caribbean. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure centered near Bermuda and low pressure near Colombia will continue to support pulsing strong winds and rough seas offshore Colombia into tonight. The high pressure will weaken some as it slides eastward Sun allowing for the the gradient to slacken. This will lead to diminishing winds and subsiding seas. An inverted trough will develop from Hispaniola northward into the open Atlantic Mon through Tue and drift westward toward the Bahamas. The gradient between it and central Atlantic high pressure will maintain fresh trade winds across the eastern Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... The pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the area and relatively lower pressure in the tropics is allowing for a corridor of fresh to strong E winds and rough seas N of the Greater Antilles, generally S of 28N between 60W and a surface trough along 73W. Farther east, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds along with moderate seas over much of the waters E of 60W. A low and mid- level trough drifting W through the Turks and Caicos and SE Bahamas is generating scattered moderate convection. In the central to east Atlantic, an upper level low is inducing a surface trough along 43W from 22N to 30N, as well as a weak 1016 mb low and trough near 24N27W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring near these features. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure is over just about the entire area. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure in the subtropics and tropics is producing fresh to strong east winds south of about 26N. Rough seas have materialized from these winds east of the Bahamas. Conditions will improve Sun night into Mon as the high weakens slides eastward in response to an approaching cold front. This front will slowly move off the southeastern U.S. and northeast Florida Sun night reaching from near 31N76W to east-central Florida Mon afternoon, from near 31N70W to South Florida Tue afternoon, then from near 31N63W to the Straits of Florida by Wed afternoon. Low pressure may track along this front during this time while an expansive area of strong high pressure builds southward up against the frontal boundary. The resulting pressure gradient will lead to widespread strong to near gale force northeast to east winds behind the cold front, along with rough to very rough seas beginning Tue. The potential exists for these winds attaining gale-force. Mariners are advised to keep up with the latest forecast.