Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Wed Nov 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Meteo-France Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: A pair of low pressure areas are in the eastern Atlantic with attendant fronts. Low pressure of 998 mb is analyzed from 33N25W with a stationary front to a 10 02 mb low near 29N33W, with cold fronts also out ahead of both of these lows. Ahead of these fronts, gale-force southwesterlies are present N of 26N to 21W. Very rough seas of up to 20 ft extend beyond this area of gales southward to 22W and westward to 42W. These features will move rapidly E and a Gale Warning has been issued by Meteo-France for the Irving and Madeira zones, Irving through 11/06 UTC and Madeira through 11/15 UTC. Rough to very rough seas will continue to accompany the winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by Meteo-France at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 09N21W. The ITCZ extends from 09N21W to 08N35W to along the coast of northern South America to 06N55W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 09N between 40W and 47W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The combination of high pressure and and a couple of troughs, one in the eastern Gulf extending from 29N85W to 23N86W, and the other one in the western Gulf from near Corpus Christi to 23N97W and to 19N95W, is generally allowing for light to gentle winds across the basin, with the exception of mostly moderate north winds west of the western Gulf trough from 22N to 24N. Slight seas are over the basin, except moderate seas west of the western trough. Scattered moderate convection is present across portions of the basin north of 24N between the troughs. For the forecast, a rather strong cold front will reach the Texas coast Wed night, then sweep across the Gulf through Thu night exiting the basin early on Fri, and followed by fresh to locally strong northerly winds and building seas. Fresh to strong northwest winds are expected in the far SW Gulf Thu through Fri. High pressure will settle in over the area in the wake of the front this weekend, with moderate to fresh easterly winds expected. These winds increase to fresh to strong speeds over the NW Gulf Sun, then shifting to the north-central and NE Gulf by Sun night as the gradient tightens ahead of a western Gulf frontal system and attendant low pressure that will be shifting eastward. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure centered north of the region and lower pressure over South America is leading to fresh to strong trades over the south central basin, with moderate to fresh trades elsewhere, except weaker near the coast of Central America and in the NE Caribbean. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in the south- central Caribbean and 3 to 6 ft elsewhere, except less where the weaker winds are. Moderate to strong convection is noted in the NW Caribbean from 15N to 20N from Jamaica westward, where trade winds are converging near a surface trough and producing localized rough seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and locally rough seas will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through Thu, with mainly moderate winds and seas elsewhere. The pressure gradient will weaken Thu night into Fri as a cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel, weakening the trades. Moderate to fresh northwest winds and building seas are possible behind this front over the northwestern Caribbean into the weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning for portions of the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast area. A stationary front extends from near 30N50W to low pressure of 1016 mb near 27N63W then continues as mainly a stationary front to across the SE Bahamas. Some moderate to fresh winds are found north of 30N between 50W and 65W where a reinforcing cold front is rotating through. To the east, fresh or greater winds surround the gale force low area described in the Special Features section above across the waters north of 22N between 18W and 40W. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters, along with moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the front and low pressure will exit the region Wed. Another cold front is expected to move off the southeastern U.S. coast Thu night accompanied by fresh to strong winds and building seas on either side of it. These conditions are expected to persist into the weekend. By early Sat, the front will extend from near Bermuda to the southeastern Bahamas, and stall from near 26N55W to the vicinity of the Turks and Caicos.