Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Jan 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0455 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Warning E of 35W: The tight pressure gradient between a complex low pressure system in the NE Atlantic and a 1025 mb high pressure over Libya result in fresh to near gale-force winds between the Moroccan coast and Madeira. Winds are forecast to strengthen to gale speeds in the Agadir High Seas Marine Zone starting at 02/12Z. Rough seas are currently affecting the waters off Morocco and rough seas are expected to develop with the gale- force winds. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale around 02/21Z. However, strong to near gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas will continue affecting the waters off Morocco and the Canary Islands through Sat. For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 11N15W and continues southwestward to 06N21W. The ITCZ extends from 06N21W to 04N35W and to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 09N and east of 42W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High-level cloudiness is found in the NW Gulf associated with a broad upper level low over the central United States. Generally dry conditions dominate the basin. The pressure gradient between the ridge over the central Gulf and the aforementioned low pressure system supports moderate to locally fresh southerly flow over the western Gulf waters. Seas in these waters are 2-4 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will occur over the basin through Fri morning as high pressure prevails over the central Gulf. Fresh SW to W winds and moderate seas will develop over the northern Gulf on Fri as a warm front, associated with a low pressure system moving through the southern U.S., lifts northward. A cold front trailing the low is slated to enter the northern Gulf on Sat, leading to moderate N winds behind the front. High pressure will build over the basin in the wake of the front Sun into next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A remnant frontal boundary extends across Hispaniola and into the central Caribbean, supporting scattered showers across the area. High pressure north of the basin supports fresh to locally strong NE-E winds and moderate seas in the central and SE Caribbean. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to locally strong northerly winds in the SW and part of the NW Caribbean, including the lee of Cuba. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas will prevail over the central and western Caribbean, including through the Windward Passage, through Fri as high pressure builds over the Gulf of America. Locally strong N winds offshore Nicaragua will diminish to fresh speeds tonight and then prevail through Fri evening. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds are expected in the south-central basin through Sat as low pressure anchors over northern Colombia. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are then expected over much of the Caribbean Sun into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See the Special Features section above for information on the Gale Warning for the Agadir region. A weakening cold front extends from 31N55W to 22N66W, followed by a frontal trough to Hispaniola. Scattered showers are noted within 200 nm to the east of these boundaries. The rest of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is under the influence of a broad subtropical ridge. Moderate to fresh westerly winds and seas of 6-10 ft are found north of 26N and west of 47W. In the far NE Atlantic, fresh to strong westerly winds and rough seas are occurring north of 20N and east of 40W. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 6-9 ft are present south of 20N and west of 30W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extending from 31N55W to 22N66W will progress eastward and exit the area Fri night. Fresh westerlies W of the front and N of 29N will diminish to moderate speeds Fri morning while rough seas within these winds will subside through Sat morning. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas are expected to develop offshore of northern and central Florida on Sat, ahead of a cold front forecast to enter the northwest tropical Atlantic Sat night. Fresh N winds and locally rough seas are forecast behind the front, expanding southeastward into early next week.