Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun Mar 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W and continues southwestward to 02N19W, where the ITCZ begins and continues to 01N32W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 04W and 50W. GULF OF AMERICA... A 1019 mb high pressure centered in the NE Gulf remains in control of the regional weather conditions. Gentle anticyclonic winds and 1-3 ft seas generally prevail E of 90W. In the Yucatan Channel and N of the Yucatan Peninsula to 23N, winds are moderate from the east and seas 3-4 ft while moderate to fresh NE winds are ongoing off the Yucatan Peninsula and into the E Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, moderate SSE winds prevail offshore Mexico and Texas where seas are 3-4 ft. For the forecast, high pressure over the northeastern Gulf will maintain mostly moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas across the western Gulf into the middle of next week. A trough over the Bay of Campeche in the southwest Gulf will support occasional moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula mainly at night through the middle of next week. This pattern will also support a light to gentle winds and slight seas over the eastern Gulf through Wed. CARIBBEAN SEA... Surface high pressure over the NE Gulf of America extends a ridge to the NW Caribbean while lower pressure dominates the remainder basin due to the passage of a cold front, which tail is moving across the E Dominican Republic and the Mona Passage tonight. Ahead of the front, a surface trough extends from southern Puerto Rico SW to 14N73W. Building high pressure over the Bahamas in the wake of the front is supporting fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of southern Cuba and the Windward Passage where seas are 5-7 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds are also just west of the tail of the front over the Dominican Republic adjacent waters to about 17N. Ahead of the front and into the E Caribbean, winds are moderate or weaker from the east. Scattered to isolated showers are likely tonight into Sun morning over the NE Caribbean due to the passage of the front. For the forecast, building high pressure over the western Atlantic will support moderate to locally strong NE winds south of Cuba, the Windward Passage and just south of Hispaniola through Mon. As the high pressure moves slightly eastward, fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will develop offshore Colombia Mon through Thu, mainly at night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A slow moving cold front extends from southeast of Bermuda near 31N62W to Hispaniola, which is generating scattered heavy showers ahead of it to about 54W and N of 22N. High pressure building over the northern Bahamas in the wake of the front continues to reinforce fresh to strong NW winds behind the front N of 27N, extending W to about 66W. Seas with these winds are in the 8-10 ft range. Ahead of the front, a broad surface ridge extending from a 1025 mb high located near 38N38W, is supporting fresh to near gale force SW winds N of 23N and to about 52W. Seas ahead the front are 8-12 ft. Over the far E subtropical Atlantic, a strong low pressure N of the region continues to support fresh to near gale force N to NW winds from the Canary Islands to about 32W where seas are 11 to 14 ft. Fresh to locally strong SW winds are ahead of the Canary Islands along with 8 to 11 ft seas. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas moderate to rough to 10 ft in northerly swell. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds and rough seas on either side of the cold front, and mainly north of 25N, will continue to affect the offshore waters from west to east through Sun as the front continues to move eastward. This system is forecast to reach from 31N57W to Puerto Rico by Sun morning, then will move into the central Atlantic Mon through Tue while gradually dissipating. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to enter the offshore waters of northeast Florida Mon night into Tue, followed by fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas. These marine conditions are forecast to affect most of the waters north of 27N into the middle of the next week before starting to diminish Wed night as the front lifts northward.