Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Oct 17 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Storm and Gale Warnings: A cold front extends from near Tampa, FL to the Bay of Campeche. A scatterometer pass at 1506 UTC today confirmed NW winds of up to 50 kts offshore Veracruz, along with a large swath of gale-force winds S of 26N and W of 94W. Recent altimeter data over the western Gulf along with buoy observations over the northwest Gulf confirm rough to very rough seas up to 14 ft follow the front. Frequent gusts to gale force are ongoing elsewhere north of the front. Very dangerous marine conditions are likely along the coast of Veracruz later today, as winds out of the NW will funnel along the coast and increase to storm force, with seas building as high as 25 ft. The storm and gale conditions and very rough seas will subside through late Sun night off Veracruz, but strong winds and rough seas may not subside until mid week. Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front is moving off the coast of northeast Florida. The front will reach from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida by early Sun morning, and from near 31N70W to western Cuba by early Mon morning, then stall and dissipate through mid week. Frequent gusts to gale force will follow the front Sun over the waters north of 29N and west of 75W. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers FZNT02 KNHC/HSFAT2 or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 12N16W to 08N23W. The ITCZ then extends from 08N23W to 11N39W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 11N and E of 24W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring from 06N to 13N between 29W and 36W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... See details above about the Storm and Gale Warnings in the Gulf of America. Showers and thunderstorms are active along the cold front, reaching from near Tampa, Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Additional showers and thunderstorms are active over the southeast Gulf, ahead of an upper trough extending over the central Gulf. Light to gentle NE winds and slight seas are noted south and east of the front. For the forecast, a cold front extends from Tampa Bay, Florida to the Chivela Pass in Mexico. Strong gale force winds and very rough seas follow the front over the west-central Gulf, with increasing winds to minimal storm force in the SW Gulf near Veracruz. Fresh to strong NE winds with frequent gusts to gale force follow the front elsewhere behind the front including over the northern Gulf. The front will reach from Naples, Florida to Coatzacoalcos, Mexico by this evening. Storm force winds off Veracruz will diminish to strong gale this evening, while strong gale force winds persists in the west-central Gulf. Frequent gusts to gale force elsewhere behind the front should diminish by this evening. The front will then slow down as it reaches from the Florida Straits to Merida, Mexico by early Sun, then drift to the southeast of the Gulf through Tue as it weakens. Gales will diminish in the west-central Gulf by early Sun, and persist over the SW Gulf through Sun night. Strong NE winds and rough seas will persist elsewhere north of the front. Looking ahead, strong high pressure will build over the lower Mississippi Valley behind the front, promoting fresh NE to E winds mainly over the eastern half of the Gulf into mid week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Abundant low level moisture is converging across the NW Caribbean and interacting with the upper trough across the central Gulf to produce numerous moderate to strong convection across the northwest Caribbean north of 14N and west of 81W, as well as between Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and Haiti. To the south, the East Pacific monsoon trough enhances scattered strong convection across the SW Caribbean S of 14N and W of 75W. At the surface, the seasonal pressure gradient across the region is leading to moderate to fresh trades across the central basin, with locally strong trades offshore Colombia. Seas are 3-6 ft across much of the Caribbean, with 6-8 ft seas in the south-central basin. For the forecast, as a cold front moves across the Western Atlantic and the Gulf of America, the pressure gradient is relaxing across the basin. This pattern will support moderate to fresh winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela with moderate to locally rough seas near the coast of Colombia today. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. An area of showers and thunderstorms associated with a surface trough will continue to affect the NW Caribbean into the evening. Moisture associated with this feature will merge with the cold front moving across the Gulf this weekend. The front will likely reach western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel by Tue then dissipate. Large seas associated with the front will impact the Yucatan Channel with hazardous conditions possible there. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See details above about the Gale Warning offshore NE Florida. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed between the Florida Peninsula and the Bahamas, with scattered moderate convection occurring along and E of the trough to about 75W. A weak stationary front is analyzed north of 28N between 47W and 65W, with a dissipating frontal boundary to the south. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 24N to 29N between 45W and 50W, and also from 24N to 26N between 67W and 70W. Farther east, a trough is analyzed from 18N39W to 29N38W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the north end of the trough as well as E of the trough to 30W. Another surface trough is analyzed from 07N44W to 15N38W, and is inducing scattered moderate convection along and near the trough axis. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the Atlantic. Moderate to fresh trades and 5-8 ft seas prevail N of 20N and E of 40W, while gentle to moderate trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail across the rest of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, a pair of weak frontal boundaries east of 70W will merge then dissipate through today, ahead of a strong cold front that moved off the coast of northeast Florida this morning. The front will reach from 31N72W to the Straits of Florida by early Sun morning, and from near 31N70W to western Cuba by early Mon morning, then stall and dissipate into mid week. Strong to near- gale force winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front affecting mainly the waters west of 65W through Tue, although seas will linger through mid-week. Frequent gusts to gale force are forecast behind the front north of 29N and west of 74W tonight through Sun.