Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Jan 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Sierra Leone near Freetown, then reaches southwestward to 06N15W. An ITCZ extends west-southwestward from 06N15W across 02N30W to just north of Belem, Brazil at 00N38W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed near the ITCZ from 01N to 04N between 12W and 30W, and farther north from 02N to 06N between 36W and 41W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front straddles across the northern Gulf coastal waters, from the western Florida Panhandle to beyond Corpus Christi, Texas. Scattered showers are seen near this boundary, north of 27N. Otherwise, a surface ridge stretching southwestward from the Florida Big Bend area to south of Tampico, Mexico is supporting gentle with locally moderate ENE to SE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas for the entire Gulf. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will linger through Sat morning. Weak high pressure over the eastern Gulf will be replaced by slightly stronger high pressure that will build from the north on Sat. An Arctic cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf on Sat, briefly stall there through Sat night, then move southeastward across the entire Gulf Sun through Mon evening. Strong reinforcing high pressure behind the front is expected to produce near-gale force winds across the northwestern portions of the Gulf Sun and Sun night, and possible gale conditions offshore of Tampico Sun night into Mon, then offshore of Veracruz on Mon and Mon night. Dense fog along and just offshore the coastal plains west of Pascagoula will continue through this morning over most areas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad subtropical ridge extending southwestward from a 1032 mb Azores High across 31N44W to near the central Bahamas, sustains a trade-wind regime across the entire Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are present at the south- central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are noted at the north-central, eastern and part of the southwestern basin. Mainly gentle winds with seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the aforementioned subtropical ridge will maintain mostly fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean Sea as well as the Tropical North Atlantic waters through early next week, while winds pulse and reach strong to near-gale force offshore of Colombia at night. Large E swell over the Tropical North Atlantic will slowly subside through the weekend, but remain around 8 ft through early next week. A cold front will enter the northwestern basin late Mon and begin to stall from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by late Tue. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough curves northeastward from the Florida Straits across the northwest Bahamas and a 1017 mb low near 29N75W to beyond 31N71W. Patchy showers are found up to 50 nm along either side of the trough southwest of 77W. East of 77W, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found north of 28N to 72W. A the eastern Atlantic, a cold front curves westward from near the Canary Islands to 29N28W, then continues northwestward as a surface trough to 31N41W. Scattered showers are evident near and up to 60 nm south of the both features. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A broad subtropical ridge extending southwestward from a 1032 mb Azores High across 31N44W to near the central Bahamas. It is supporting moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft north of 27N between 35W and 60W, and north of 20N between 60W and the Florida/southern Georgia coast. Farther south, from 04N to 20N/27W between 35W and the Lesser Antilles/60W, moderate to fresh with locally strong NE to E winds and 7 to 11 ft seas dominate. For the remainder of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the broad subtropical ridge will shift east off the Mid-Atlantic U.S. coast Sat and Sun, and force a frontal boundary currently in the north Atlantic southward to along 30N before lifting north of the area Sun night. Fresh to strong S to SW winds will then develop over the northwestern forecast waters late Sun through early Mon in advance of a strong arctic cold front that is expected to move offshore northeastern Florida early Mon. The front will be accompanied by scattered showers and thunderstorms as it reaches from near 31N70W to the northwest Bahamas and Straits of Florida Mon evening. It will reach from near 31N55W to the southeast Bahamas and eastern Cuba Tue evening, and weaken as it reaches from near 31N50W to 27N60W. Afterward, it will become a stationary front to the southeast Bahamas and eastern Cuba. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are expected west of the front Mon afternoon through Tue, becoming mostly fresh NE winds on Wed within about 180 nm NW of the frontal boundary.