Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Mar 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Storm Warning: A strong cold front currently at the northwestern Gulf will move southeastward across the rest of the Gulf through late tonight. Widespread strong to near-gale northerly winds and rough seas will follow the front. These winds are peaking at gale-force off coast of Texas and western Louisiana this morning. Expect strong gales off the Mexican coast between Tampico and Veracruz today trough early this evening, with frequent gusts to storm force. Seas will peak between 14 and 16 ft under the strongest winds. Both winds and seas should gradually subside from north to south starting this evening. Please refer to the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Gambia coast, then curves southwestward to 02N23W. An ITCZ continues from 02N23W across 00N30W to near Fortaleza, Brazil at 04S38W. Widely scattered moderate convection prevail up to 120 nm along either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for information on a Storm Warning. A strong cold front stretches southwestward from near New Orleans to near the Texas-Mexico border. Scattered showers are occurring up to 80 nm along either side of the front. Convergent southerly winds ahead of this front are causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms near the Florida Big Bend area. Other than the storm and gale-force winds mentioned in the Special Features section, strong to near gale-force northerly winds with 8 to 11 ft seas are present behind the front. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted at the north-central and northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, as the front moves farther southeastward away from the Gulf late tonight through Tue, conditions in the Gulf will gradually improve from north to south. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build across the region into midweek.. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Strong high pressure continues to build toward the central Atlantic and is reaching the Caribbean basin. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong easterly winds across the eastern half of the basin, while moderate to fresh E winds are noted W of 73W. Seas in these areas range from 7 to 10 ft. The exception is in the offshore waters north of Colombia, where strong winds are currently pulsing with 9 to 11 ft seas. Fresh to strong E to ESE winds and seas at 5 to 7 ft are evident at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will support fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas across the waters near the Lesser Antilles, and the eastern and central Caribbean, including the Atlantic exposures and Passages through Tue evening. On Tue morning, a cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Caribbean from the Gulf of America. Then, it will slow down and possibly stall from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by early Wed morning. This should decrease the influence from the high and allow winds and seas across the central and eastern Caribbean to gradually subside through Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Convergent southerly winds ahead of a cold front currently over the southeastern U.S. are causing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms off northeastern Florida. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge related to a 1023 mb Azores High is dominating much of the Atlantic Basin. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Fresh with locally strong southerly winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are noted north of 27N between 75W and the Florida/souther Georgia coast. To the east from 25N to 31N and between 45W and 75W, moderate ENE to SE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas are present. Farther south from 05N to 25N between 45W and the Lesser Antilles, fresh to strong NE to E winds and 8 to 11 ft seas exist. For the remaining area of the Atlantic west of 35W, gentle to moderate NE winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in moderate NE swell prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, surface ridge extends southwestward from the Azores High across 31N50W to beyond the central Bahamas. It will continue to support fresh to strong winds and rough seas south of 25N, including the southeast Bahamas and Great Bahama Bank through Tue. By Tue evening, the ridge will retreat eastward in response to a cold front moving off the southeastern U.S. coast. This front will gradually weaken and slow down, then stall from near 31N70W through the central Bahamas to central Cuba on Wed. Fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas ahead of this front have developed north of 28N, east of northeastern Florida. These winds should shift to the W to NW this evening while following the front eastward through early Tue. The front will remain nearly stationary through Thu. At the same time, a low pressure may develop along the frontal boundary and move quickly northeastward.