Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Mar 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W to 05N19W. Farther south, the ITCZ extends from 03N20W to W to 01S33W to the coast of Brazil near 02.5S43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 06N and E of 22W, and also S of 02N between 31W and 39W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front is analyzed from the Florida Keys to the Yucatan Channel. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft are noted at the Bay of Campeche and the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 2 to 5 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, a weakening cold front extends from the Straits of Florida to inland the NE Yucatan Peninsula. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are expected behind the front. The front will stall and lift back to the N as a warm front on Sat as high pressure over the region begins to shift eastward. A strong cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf late Sun night, quickly reach the southeastern Gulf by Mon night and slow down as it moves into the northwestern Caribbean by late Tue. Strong to near gale- force N winds will follow the front along with seas rapidly becoming rough. Gale force winds will be possible in the NW Gulf, and offshore Tamaulipas and Veracruz, Mexico on Sun night and Mon. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build across the region into midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A weaker pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the Colombian low supports fresh to locally strong NE to ENE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft offshore Colombia. Moderate to fresh trades and 3-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere across the central and eastern basin. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere in the SW and NW Caribbean, where seas are 2-5 ft. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between north-central Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressure in Colombia will support pulsing fresh to strong trades across the central basin through the morning hours. The high pressure will shift eastward through tonight, leading to fresh to strong winds becoming confined to the south-central Caribbean S of 13N during that time, while marine conditions gradually improve area-wide as the pressure gradient weakens. High pressure will build across the Atlantic to the N Sat night through Mon, leading to fresh to strong trades and building seas extending from the Tropical N Atlantic to the eastern and central Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front continues to move E across the W Atlantic, analyzed from 31N69W through a 1015 mb low pres near 26N78W to the Florida Keys. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are along and within 150 nm of the front. Strong to near-gale NW to N winds are in its wake, mainly N of 27N and W of 72W. Rough seas will prevail with these winds. To the SE, a surface trough is analyzed along 59W from 21N to 30N, and is supporting the development of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms from the trough axis out to about 50W. Elsewhere, ridging from the 1034 mb Azores high expands across much of the basin, supporting fresh to strong trades and 6-9 ft seas across much of the Atlantic E of 55W. Gentle to moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, a weakening cold front extends from near 31N69W to low pressure near 26N78W 1015 mb and to the Straits of Florida. This front will become stationary from near 31N68W to 28N74W and to S Florida this afternoon and dissipate Sat. Atlantic high pressure will build west-southwestward toward the Bahamas through the weekend before it will retreat eastward early next week in response to the next cold front. This front will move off the U.S. southeastern coast Mon evening, then slow down and stall from near 31N72W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Tue. Fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will develop over the NW forecast waters starting Sun afternoon ahead of the front. These conditions will shift eastward to the north- central waters by late Tue. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds will follow the front. To the S, rough seas produced by long-period E swell will impact the waters E of the Bahamas early next week.