Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Dec 24 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell: Very large NW swell is combining with waves generated by strong NNE winds behind a cold front moving eastward through the Central Atlantic to induce very rough seas across a wide swath of waters N of 22N between 45W and 65W this morning. These seas of up to 16 ft will move east through today, gradually decaying as the front slowly weakens. Another cold front will move S of Bermuda in the afternoon, and additional swell generated by this new cold front will likely bring similar conditions to the region starting on Thu and continuing through Fri. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 07N12W and extends southwestward to 05N19W. The ITCZ extends from 04N21W to 04N37W to 02N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 05W and 16W, and from 03N to 08N between 23W and 33W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure of 1027 mb centered over northern Florida extends a ridge across the basin, thus supporting fresh winds in the SE Gulf, with 5 to 8 ft seas. Moderate or weaker winds, and slight to moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, strong high pressure centered over northern Florida will continue to support moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas across the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf through Thu. A ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf region the remainder of the week, with a high pressure center located over the NE Gulf Thu through Sat. This system will produce mainly a gentle to moderate wind flow with slight to moderate seas. Looking ahead, the next cold front is slated to enter the NW Gulf on Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to near gale-force NE winds offshore Colombia with rough seas to 10 ft, and fresh to strong NE winds in the lee side of Cuba with seas to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere in the central and western Caribbean with moderate seas to 7 ft. In the E Caribbean, winds are moderate or weaker and seas slight to moderate. For the forecast, strong high pressure across the western Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and the central Caribbean through Thu night, except through Sun night off Colombia. Otherwise, long period northerly swell will reach the NE Caribbean and the waters just E of the Leeward Islands, including the Atlantic passages, this morning and gradually subside late Thu into Fri. Additional pulses of northerly swell will reach the same region late Fri into Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on significant swell that will bring very rough seas to parts of the central Atlantic through today. A cold front extends from 31N40W to 23N50W where it transitions to a weakening stationary front that continues to 21N60W. Broad surface ridging is to the west and east of the front, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will gradually dissipate over the SE waters today. Strong winds following the front and affecting the SE offshore waters E of 60W will diminish and move E of the area early today. However, rough to very rough seas E of the Bahamas will gradually subside through Thu. Another cold front will reach the northern waters today, extend from 31N55W to the NW Bahamas by Thu morning and exit the region Thu night. Strong to near gale force winds, and rough to very rough seas are also expected ahead and behind the front, affecting mainly the north-central and NE offshore waters. A third cold front will move across the northern offshore waters Fri morning and exit the NE offshore waters late Sat. Rough to very rough seas will follow.