Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Dec 10 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Sierra Leone and Liberia, then runs southwestward to 05N16W. An ITCZ curves westward from 05N16W to 01N34W to 03N44W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near and up to 200 nm north of the ITCZ between 20W and 40W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen the ITCZ and monsoon trough from 01N to 08N between 10W and 20W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is causing isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near Costa Rica and Panama. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough is generating scattered showers at the south- central Gulf and Florida Straits. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending southwestward from the Florida Panhandle is dominating much of the Gulf. Moderate to fresh NE to ENE winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are present across the south-central and southeastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits. Gentle to moderate NE to SSE winds with 3 to 6 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds and rough seas will continue in the south-central and southeastern Gulf tonight behind a stalled front over the Yucatan Peninsula/Channel and western Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh W to NW winds and moderate seas will develop in the northeastern basin by Wed ahead of a cold front moving through the southern United States. This front is slated to enter the northern Gulf by early Thu, with winds turning to the north in the wake of the front. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are expected over the remainder of the Gulf into this weekend as weak high pressure prevails over the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front stretches southwestward from the Great Bahama Bank across western Cuba and the Yucatan Channel into the Yucatan Peninsula. Patchy showers and isolated thunderstorms are found up to 50 nm along either side of the front. A surface trough is creating widely scattered moderate convection near and west of Jamaica. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for more information. Fresh to locally strong ENE to E winds with 5 to 7 ft seas dominate the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are present at the north-central and eastern basin, and part of the western basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas will continue in the central and the southeastern basin tonight behind a stalled front that extends from western Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh W to N winds and moderate seas will develop in the northeastern basin by Wed ahead of a cold front moving through the southern United States. This front is slated to enter the northern Gulf by early Thu, with winds turning to the north in the wake of the front. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are expected over the remainder of the Gulf into this weekend as weak high pressure prevails over the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N58W to 26N70W, then continues as a stationary front to beyond the central Bahama. Scattered moderate convection is occurring near and up to 200 nm northwest of this boundary. Convergent trade winds are triggering scattered moderate convection from 06N to 10N between 27W and 39W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. A 1021 mb high near 27N36W is dominating the central and eastern Atlantic from 21N to 27N between 35W and 60W with gentle to moderate E to SE winds, and 6 to 9 ft in large northerly swell. To the north, tight gradient between the high and a 998 mb low pressure in the north-central Atlantic is inducing fresh to strong SW winds and seas at 8 to 12 ft north of 27N between 35W and 55W. Farther west from 20N to 31N, between 55W/60W and the Florida and southern Georgia coast, gentle with locally moderate SE to W to NW winds and 6 to 10 ft seas in large northerly swell exist. For the tropical Atlantic from 07N to 20N/22N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh ENE to E winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are noted. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong SW winds and rough seas that precede the front, north of 28N and east of 60W will diminish late tonight into Wed. NW swell associated with this front will expand southeastward over the northwestern tropical Atlantic through Wed, supporting rough seas north of 27N by late tonight, and north of 25N by Wed afternoon. Seas reaching to around 12 ft will be possible north of 30N and east of 69W into Wed afternoon. Seas will slowly subside from west to east, west of 65W, into early Thu. Looking ahead, fresh to strong SW winds along with rough seas will develop offshore of northern Florida by Wed evening ahead of a cold front that will be moving across the southern United States. This cold front is expected to move offshore the southeastern U.S. coast Wed night, with fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas expected in the wake of the front.