Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Jan 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues to 05N19W. The ITCZ extends from 05N19W to 01N50W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 03N to 07N between 19W and 35W. GULF OF AMERICA... A stalling cold front extends from near Fort Myers, Florida, to just south of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate NE winds and 2 to 4 ft seas follow the front in the NE Gulf, otherwise there is little sensible weather change associated with its passage, with light to gentle winds and slight seas dominating the remainder of the basin. For the forecast, the front will gradually dissipate through Mon. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, with moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevailing through the middle of the week. Fresh to strong southerly return flow will develop over the western waters the middle to end of the week ahead of the next cold front expected to move into the NW Gulf Fri night. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extending from E Cuba to a 1011 mb low along the north-central coast of Colombia is generating scattered moderate convection between Panama and Colombia, between Cuba, Jamaica, and Haiti, and within 90 nm south of Haiti. West of the trough axis, fresh N winds are impacting portions of the western basin from S of eastern Cuba to offshore Nicaragua. Fresh trades are also ongoing in the SE Caribbean. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker as the pressure gradient has been disrupted by a cold front N of the region in the Atlantic. Seas are 2 to 5 ft, highest were winds are fresh, and lowest in the Lee of Cuba, Yucatan Passage, and Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate trade winds over the Caribbean waters through midweek. High pressure will build north of the area, which will tighten the pressure gradient across the area the middle of the week. The tighter pressure gradient will support fresh trade winds over the central Caribbean, with winds reaching strong speeds off Colombia. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1001 mb low NW of Bermuda extends a cold front that reaches from 31N68W to South Florida this afternoon. Scattered moderate convection along this boundary is confined to just E of the Bahamas between 71W and 75W. Fresh to locally strong NW winds follow the front N of 28N, along with rough seas. Fresh to locally strong SW winds and similarly rough seas extend E of the front, N of 28N, to where a pre-frontal trough is marked from 31N65W to the Turks and Caicos. This trough is inducing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection within 90 nm on either side of its axis. Still farther E, a mid- and upper-level trough along 60W N of 25N is also inducing scattered moderate convection within 60 nm on either side of its axis. For the remaining waters N of 23N and W of 55W, moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas dominate. In the tradewind belt S of 15N, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 5 to 7 seas prevail. In the NE basin, fresh N winds and rough seas prevail N of 25N and E of 30W, with rough seas but lighter winds extending southward to the Cabo Verde Islands. Elsewhere over the basin, generally moderate seas prevail, with moderate or weaker winds. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will move E across the waters and out of the area early this week. Fresh to strong winds on either side of the front N of 28N will diminish this evening. Rough seas across the northern waters will subside by midweek. High pressure will build in the wake of the front, with moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevailing.