Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Oct 25 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0900 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Melissa is centered near 16.3N 75.0W at 25/0900 UTC or 140 nm SE of Kingston Jamaica, moving NW at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 986 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are active within 60 nm of the center of Melissa, and from 12N to 17N between 69W and 72W. Melissa is developing into a very dangerous storm. It is forecast to rapidly intensify into a major hurricane by late this evening, and drift toward Jamaica through Mon. Melissa’s slow movement will bring a multi-day period of damaging winds and heavy rainfall to Jamaica beginning tonight, likely causing catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides. There is an increasing risk of life-threatening storm surge early next week. Catastrophic flash flooding and landslides are expected across southwestern Haiti into early next week, likely causing extensive infrastructural damage and potentially prolonged isolation of communities. Strong winds could also potentially last for a day or more over the Tiburon peninsula. In addition, heavy rainfall could produce potentially catastrophic flash flooding and numerous landslides in southern regions of the Dominican Republic. An increase in forward motion is expected Tue and Wed, with Melissa accelerating northeastward across eastern Cuba, the southeastern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands. There is an increasing risk of a significant storm surge, damaging winds, and heavy rainfall by the middle of next week for these areas. In eastern Cuba, the risk of life- threatening flash flooding and landslides is increasing. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Melissa, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic, available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_at3.shtml?rainqpf Swells generated by Melissa are expected to affect portions of Hispaniola, Jamaica, and eastern Cuba during the next several days. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS and OFFSHORE WATERS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details For the latest Melissa NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is extends from 19N45W to 08N48W, and is moving northwest at 10 to 15 kt. A sharp upper trough above the tropical wave is enhancing clusters of showers and thunderstorms within 360 nm east of the wave axis from 08N to 22N. A scatterometer satellite pass from around 00 UTC indicated a small area of gale- force winds following the wave, associated with a clusters of thunderstorms. Outside of thunderstorms, fresh to strong E to SE winds follow the tropical wave along with rough seas. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Senegal Coast near Dakar, then extends southwestward to 10N20W. A segment of the ITCZ curves westward from 10N20W to 06N35W, then to 12N42W. Another segment extends from 09N49W to 08N56W. In addition to the showers and thunderstorms discussed in the Tropical Waves section, scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along the ITCZ between 25N and 30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A line of thunderstorms is moving along the central and northern Texas coasts toward the far northwest Gulf. A few thunderstorms are also active near a trough off near the Yucatan Channel. 1029 mb high pressure centered over the Ohio Valley is supporting fresh to strong NE to E winds and associated rough seas over the Straits of Florida. Moderate to fresh E to SE winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong E winds are expected over the eastern Gulf, including through the Florida Straits, into Sun as high pressure strengthens over the eastern United States. Locally rough seas may accompany these winds, especially over the Florida Straits. Winds and seas diminish through the early part of the week as low pressure moves from Texas across the northern Gulf coast toward the Carolinas. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will move off the Texas coast Tue night and sweep through the southeast Gulf by Thu night. Strong winds and rough seas will follow the front, and winds may reach at least near-gale force along the coast of Mexico off Tampico and Veracruz Wed night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on Tropical Storm Melissa. Fresh to strong NE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are active south of central Cuba. Fresh SE winds and 5 to 7 ft seas are also active over the eastern Caribbean. Moderate breezes and moderate seas are noted elsewhere outside of the central Caribbean where T.S. Melissa is active. For the forecast, Melissa will strengthen to a hurricane near 16.5N 75.3W this afternoon, then strengthen further to a major hurricane near 16.7N 75.9W by Sun morning. Melissa will move to 16.8N 76.5W Sun afternoon, 16.9N 77.1W Mon morning, 17.2N 77.4W Mon afternoon. Melissa will be near 17.8N 77.2W late Mon night to Tue morning and will start moving across Jamaica through late Tue and reach a position between Jamaica and Cuba by late Tue into early Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak stationary front extends from Bermuda to South Florida. The gradient between high pressure over the Ohio Valley and T.S. Melissa in the Caribbean is supporting fresh to strong easterly winds and 5 to 7 ft seas east of 65W, with seas to 8 ft near the northern Bahamas. A few showers and thunderstorm are active near 23N67W. Farther east, a few showers and thunderstorms are active along a trough extending southwestward from a complex low centered near the Azores to 22N45W. Other than the winds and seas described in the Tropical Wave section, gentle to moderate breezes and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail east of 65W. For the forecast west of 55W, a tight pressure gradient between high pressure north of the front and Tropical Storm Melissa will support fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas north of the front and off the central Bahamas through Sun as the front lifts north of the area and dissipates. Strong southerly winds and rough seas will follow the dying front between northeast Florida and Bermuda late Mon and Tue. Looking ahead, Tropical Storm Melissa, currently south of Haiti and Jamaica, is forecast to intensify to a major hurricane and move across Jamaica and eastern Cuba Mon and Tue. Looking ahead, Melissa will impact Atlantic waters around the southern Bahamas and Turks and Caicos Tue night and Wed. Farther north, a weak cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast Mon night, then stall and dissipate. A stronger reinforcing cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast by late Wed.