Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon Jun 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 22W, from 16N southward, moving west at around 10 to 15 kt. This wave, and the wave previously analyzed near 23W is the same tropical wave. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 34W, from 15N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 46W, from 15N southward, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ section below. The axis of a tropical wave has been repositioned to 73W as the turning noted on satellite near 78W was from the upper level trough, and not the tropical wave. The wave axis is south of 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. The tropical wave is interacting with the upper level trough, enhancing convection. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 17N between 70W and 80W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 12N17W and extends to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 08N23W to 06N32W, then from 06N36W to 05N45W, then from 05N48W to 04N52W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 23W and 40W, and from 02N to 06N between 41W and 51W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure prevails across the Gulf waters, anchored by a 1020 mb high centered over southern Georgia. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure, and low pressure around TS Boris, and recently upgraded TD Three-E is supporting moderate to fresh winds over the SE Gulf. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range west of 90W, and 1-3 ft E of 90W. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the Gulf region through Fri, supporting gentle to moderate east to southeast winds over the eastern Gulf, and moderate to locally fresh winds in the western Gulf. Slight to moderate seas will prevail. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will support moderate winds to pulse to fresh, occasionally strong, during the evenings through at least Wed. A trough, or low pressure, may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche, perhaps from late Thu through Fri night accompanied by numerous showers and thunderstorms along with fresh to strong winds and building seas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tropical wave is moving through the central Caribbean, enhancing convective activity, and producing a locally tighter pressure gradient. This pressure gradient is supporting fresh winds across the central Caribbean. Fresh winds are noted in the Gulf of Honduras due to the pressure gradient between the high pressure centered over southern Georgia and broad low pressure around recently upgraded TD Three-E. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range E of 75W, and 4-6 ft W of 75W. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across the the majority of the basin, along with mostly moderate seas. The pressure gradient will tighten between the Atlantic ridge and broad low pressure around TD Three-E. The tightening pressure gradient will support strengthening trade winds, with moderate to locally rough seas, starting this evening in the north-central and NW Caribbean including the Gulf of Honduras. A trough, or low pressure, may emerge from the Yucatan Peninsula into the Bay of Campeche later this week, keeping a tight pressure gradient over the NW Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds and mostly moderate seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough extends from 26N67W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are near the trough axis. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N, anchored by a 1035 mb high centered near 36N31W. Moderate to fresh winds prevail over the waters E of 50W, as well as S of 20N between 50W and 61W. Light to gentle winds cover the waters N of 23N and W of 65W. Gentle to moderate winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range E of 44W, 3-4 ft N of 24N and W of 50W, and 5-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the trough will remain nearly stationary through the early part of the week. A weak cold front will move across the N waters Tue, then stall near 27-28N through Wed, gradually dissipating by Thu. High pressure in the wake of the front will shift eastward north of the area through the end of the week while weakening, with the associated ridge extending toward Florida and southeastern Georgia. The related pressure gradient will generally allow for gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas. Increasing moisture resulting in unsettled weather conditions is likely to impact the far western portion of the basin during the week.