Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Jan 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A cold front extends from southern Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Gale force NW winds and rough seas immediately follow the front over the eastern Gulf, with gale force winds and very rough seas offshore of Veracruz, Mexico. Winds will diminish below gale force by tonight, with rough seas subsiding from north to south tonight through Mon morning. Caribbean Gale warning: The pressure gradient between a ridge of high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds N of Colombia. Winds will pulse to near gale force, with frequent gusts to gale force, tonight and Mon night. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras through northern Central America: Periods of significant heavy rainfall are expected through midweek as abundant tropical moisture interacts with a pre-frontal trough in the northwest Caribbean and a cold front approaching the region from the northwest. The heaviest rainfall is expected to occur early Tue through early Wed in the Gulf of Honduras into northern Honduras, where totals in excess of 12 inches will be possible. Please consult products from your local meteorological services for additional information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W and extends to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W to 01S42W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 05N east of 23W, and within 210 NM of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning. A cold front extends from south Florida to the Bay of Campeche. Aside from the gale force winds, widespread fresh to strong N winds prevail, with rough to very rough seas south of 27N. South and east of the front, moderate to fresh NW winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will move SE and out of the basin tonight. High pressure will build southward into the region by Mon with improving marine conditions from N to S. However, strengthening high pressure over the SE of the United States will bring fresh to locally strong NE winds, mainly over the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, Tue and Wed. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy Rainfall surrounding the Gulf of Honduras through midweek, as well as a gale warning off the coast of Colombia. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 8-10 ft, prevail over the central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, are over the eastern Caribbean. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are over the NW Caribbean. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 2-4 ft, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, aside from the gale warning, a cold front will move across the Yucatan Channel into the NW Caribbean this evening, reaching from central Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras on Mon morning, then stall over the same area by Tue morning, before gradually dissipating. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas are forecast in the wake of the front. Periods of significant heavy rainfall are expected through midweek as abundant tropical moisture interacts with the frontal boundary in the northwest Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends over the waters from 31N77W to central Florida. A pre frontal trough is SE of the front. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is over the waters east of the front to 76W. Fresh to strong winds are N of 27N and E of the front to 72W, where seas are in the 5-7 ft range. W of the front, strong to near- gale winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, prevail. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters, anchored by a 1034 mb high near 35N40W. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 7-11 ft prevail over the waters E of 60W. Elsewhere, moderate winds, and seas of 5-7 ft, are noted. For the forecast west of 55W, strong Atlantic high pressure will enhance the trades up to strong speeds east of 65W through Thu. The front will reach from 31N70W to the central Bahamas by Mon morning, and from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas on Tue morning, then stall on Wed from near 31N60W to the central Bahamas before dissipating. The pressure gradient between the above mentioned high pressure and the front will also support fresh to strong southerly winds N of 27N and ahead of the front through tonight. High pressure building over the SE of the United States will boost NE winds to fresh to strong speeds in the vicinity of the Bahamas and Florida Straits into the middle of the week.