Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Sep 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave has its axis along 38W from 03N to 19N, moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 51W, moving westward near 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. A central Caribbean tropical wave has its axis along 73W, south of 19N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the wave axis. A western Caribbean tropical wave is along 88W south of 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. For related convection information, please refer to the Eastern Pacific Tropical Weather Discussion (TWDEP). ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 18N16W, and continues southwestward to 08N30W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 07N37W. It resumes near 07N41W to 06N49W. Scattered showers are noted along and south of the monsoon trough. Scattered moderate convection is along the ITCZ between 41W and 49W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front is draped across northern Florida and the Florida panhandle. The combination of this frontal boundary, with deep moisture already in place over the area and an upper- level trough digging southward over the southeastern U.S. and a trough that extends from central Florida southwestward to just west of Key West and near the Dry Tortugas will continue to favor scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over most of the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, the Florida peninsula and the southern portion of Alabama, Mississippi and southeastern Louisiana going into the middle part of the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also evident south of 25N west of 90W while isolated showers and thunderstorms are elsewhere. Weak high pressure of 1013 mb is centered near 28N94W. Its associated weak pressure gradient is generally allowing for light to gentle winds and slight seas across the basin per latest buoy observations, scatterometer data and a few satellite altimeter data passes. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will persist across the Gulf basin through the period, producing a weak pressure gradient. This will support mostly light to gentle winds and slight seas over much of the waters. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off the western Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving westward from the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The interaction between high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is sustaining fresh to strong trades along with moderate seas over the south-central Caribbean. Mostly moderate trades and moderate are over the rest of basin, with the exception of the northwestern portion of the sea, where light to gentle winds are continuing. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades and moderate seas over the south-central Caribbean will increase in areal coverage through Wed night before diminishing modestly through Fri. Rough seas will develop over these waters with the persistent strong winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. Large easterly swell will accompany a tropical wave into the Tropical N Atlantic waters early Wed through Thu morning. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front is analyzed extending from weak low pressure of 1015 mb near 31N72W southwestward to 30N81W. To the south of this boundary, a surface trough is analyzed along 79W and S of 29N. Scattered moderate convection prevails near the trough mainly W of 77W. A mid to upper-level northeast to southwest oriented trough situated north of Hispaniola continues to support scattered showers S of 25N between 64W and 70W. A high center of 1028 mb is north of the area at 34W28W. A ridge stretches across the remainder of the basin. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and a pair of tropical waves moving through the tropical Atlantic region is supporting fresh to strong winds north of 11N and east of 27W. These winds are generating rough seas over these waters. Light to gentle winds, and slight seas, are over the waters west of about 70W. Moderate to fresh trades along with moderate seas are present elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high pressure will gradually shift northeastward and strengthen through mid week. This pattern will support moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas through Tue, then moderate to fresh winds S of 21N Tue night through Thu. The stationary front will linger near 31N through mid week before lifting northward. Showers and thunderstorms will remain active across these northern waters W of 60W through Tue night.