Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu May 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has been introduced over the far eastern Atlantic based on recent satellite imagery, total precipitable water and Hovmoller data. The wave is along 22W, south of 11N, moving westward at 10 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. A tropical wave is analyzed along 41W, south of 13N, moving westward at 10 kt. The wave is devoid of significant deep convection at this time, except south of 04N where it is interacting with the ITCZ. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 04N20W. The ITCZ extends from 04N23W to 00N40W and then from 00N43W to 01N51W. Scattered moderate convection is present south of 06N and west of 29W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak stationary front extends southwestward from a 1009 mb low pres near 31N77W to central Florida and then to near northern Yucatan. A few showers are seen in the SE Gulf waters and the Florida Straits. The rest of the basin is under a weak high pressure system and a continental dry airmass. The weak pressure gradient supports moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, the stalled front extending from Fort Myers, Florida to just north of the northeast portion of the Yucatan Peninsula will drift south through Thu while weakening. Otherwise, weak high pressure over the basin will maintain rather quiet conditions through Thu. A weak cold front is forecast to enter the NE Gulf Thu night and dissipate over the eastern Gulf on Fri. Southeast winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the western half of the basin this weekend and into early next week as the pressure gradient tightens between the western extension of Atlantic high pressure and relatively lower pressures in west Texas. . ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1029 mb high pressure system in the NW Atlantic is forcing fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 6-8 ft in the south- central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are present in the north-central, eastern and SW Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the forecast waters, pulsing to strong in the Gulf of Honduras at night Sat through Mon night. Large E swell resulting in rough seas will impact the tropical N Atlantic waters through early next week ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak stationary front extends southwestward from a 1009 mb low pres near 31N77W to central Florida. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted ahead of this boundary, especially north of 27N. Fresh to strong southerly winds and seas of 5-7 ft are observed north of 28N and between 65W and 75W. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic, west of 55W, is dominated by an extensive subtropical ridge. Moderate to fresh SE-S winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found south of 28N and between 55W and 75W. The pressure gradient between the 1035 mb high pressure system well north of the Azores and lower pressures in western Africa support fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas from 13N to 26N and east of 30W. Meanwhile in the rest of the central and eastern tropical Atlantic, mainly south of 28N and between 30W and 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough seas prevail. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front off northeastern Florida will merge with a weak cold front that will move off the northeast Florida coast on Thu. The cold front will extend from near 31N69W to 26N72W and weakening stationary front to near the northern Bahamas Fri afternoon, from near 31N62W to 26N70W early on Sat, then become a weakening stationary front from near 31N60W to 27N69W by late Sat night as high pressure N of the area shifts eastward while it strengthens some. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected N of 27N through Fri while gradually lifting N of the area.