Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat May 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between subtropical high pressure north of the Caribbean and low pressure over northern Colombia will lead to gale force winds pulsing tonight and Sun night offshore Colombia, along with very rough seas. This gradient will weaken some early next week as a cold front moves into the western Atlantic, and the pulsing gales will end Mon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A weak tropical wave is in the central Atlantic, south of 09N with axis near 47W, moving west at around 10 kt. There is no deep convection associated with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough is confined inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 04N16W to 00N44W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 10N between 16W and 30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak stationary front extends from near Appalachicola, Florida, to Lake Ponchatrain. A surface trough has developed from offshore Corpus Christi Bay southward to near Tampico, Mexico. These two features are inducing scattered moderate convection within about 120 nm of the northern Gulf coast. Away from convection, most of the basin has moderate or weaker SE winds, with slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, scattered showers and strong thunderstorms near the stationary front along the northern Gulf coast will eventually weaken Sun night as the front slowly dissipates. Farther south, winds will pulse to strong near the Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings through Sun night. Looking ahead, another cold front will move into the northern Gulf waters early Mon morning, and reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late Mon, followed by moderate to locally strong N to NE winds. Fresh to strong NW winds are expected off Veracruz Mon night. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are possible ahead of the front. Conditions will improve across the basin Tue night into Wed as the front weakens. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features for information on a Gale Warning offshore Colombia. High pressure north of the Caribbean and lower pressures in the deep tropics result in fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds and locally rough seas in the central Caribbean and Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the broad subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean will force fresh to strong easterly trade winds with rough seas in the south-central Caribbean through midweek next week, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Fresh to strong with locally near-gale E winds and rough seas are also anticipated in the Gulf of Honduras through Sun night. Moderate to fresh trades are expected across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front has stalled from 31N62W near St. Augustine, Florida. Convection associated with this feature is now confined to its north and N of our area. For waters N of 21N, an overall weak pressure gradient, mainly influenced by subtropical ridging from high pressure N of the region, is leading to moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. The exception is the far NE Atlantic, where rough seas are present N of the Canary Islands and E of 25N. To the S of 21N, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will gradually weaken tonight and Sun. A cold front is expected reach a similar location as the stationary front Mon through Tue, followed by fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong to marginally severe, are possible near second front. Meanwhile, the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic will support fresh to locally strong winds off northern Hispaniola through Mon night.