Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Feb 17 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0255 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 03N21W. The ITCZ extends from 03N21W to 01S35W and to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1020 mb high pressure system dominates the Gulf waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Generally dry conditions are found across the basin. For the forecast, high pressure is building across the area in the wake of the recent cold front maintaining rather tranquil conditions. Moderate north to northeast winds over the eastern Gulf south of 27N will diminish early on Tue. The high pressure will slide eastward through Wed night in response to a deepening low pressure system in the upper Midwest region that will be moving eastward. As this happens, the pressure gradient will tighten over the western half of the Gulf starting on Tue leading to moderate to fresh southerly winds in that part of the Gulf. These winds expand to the western part of E Gulf Thu through late Fri. The low pressure will pull a cold front into the NW Gulf on Sat. Light to gentle winds are expected behind the front initially before becoming fresh to strong northerly winds Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from central Cuba to 18N83W and isolated showers are noted near this boundary. The remainder of the Caribbean is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge positioned over the central Atlantic. This high pressure supports fresh to strong easterly trade winds and seas of 5-8 ft in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are noted in the north-central and eastern Caribbean. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong northeast to east winds will continue offshore Colombia through the forecast period. These winds are expected to expand in coverage starting late on Thu, with the possibly of near gale-force speeds Fri and Sat night as Atlantic ridging noses westward tightening the pressure gradient. Fresh northeast winds will develop in the Windward Passage and in the lee side of Cuba from Tue through Wed evening. Fresh to strong east to southeast winds will begin to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras Wed evening and continue through the rest of the forecast period, and trades elsewhere will generally remain at moderate to fresh during this same time. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from just west of Bermuda to the central Bahamas and western Cuba. A surface trough is noted ahead of the front. Scattered showers to isolated thunderstorms are occurring ahead of the front to 64W and north of 23N. Fresh to strong winds are found north of 27N and west of 57W. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft. A broad subtropical ridge dominates the rest of the tropical Atlantic, sustaining moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate to rough seas south of 20N and west of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will reach from near 31N61W to 26N69W and stationary to South Florida early on Tue. The cold front portion will continue eastward across the northern and central offshore waters through Tue evening passing E of 55W by late Tue night. Fresh to strong south to southwest winds ahead of the front N of 28N will diminish to fresh speeds as the front crosses 55W. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds behind the front will become north to northeast fresh winds early on Tue. Elsewhere, long-period northerly swell will continue to support rough seas over the waters E and NE of the Bahamas through Thu night. Looking ahead, fresh southwest winds are expected to develop over the far NW part of the area beginning Sat in advance of the next cold front.