Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Dec 23 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A cold front will move through the Central Atlantic waters early this week, with strong to near gale-force northerly winds behind it. Significant NW swell, with period of 8 to 12 seconds, generated by gales N of the region will accompany these winds and combine with wind-waves to induce very rough seas SE of Bermuda starting tonight, spreading E across waters N of 20N through Wed. Widespread seas of 12 to 17 ft can be expected from 40W to 68W during this period. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 08.5N13W and extends southwestward to 05.5N20W. The ITCZ extends from 05.5N20W to 02N37W to 02N49W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 08N between 05W and 27W, and from 01S to 10N between 27W and 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough is over the SW Gulf, generating scattered moderate convection. Surface ridging dominates elsewhere. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail over the SE Gulf. Moderate winds are elsewhere E of 93W. Gentle to moderate winds are W of 93W. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the SE Gulf, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, strong high pressure centered over the Mid- Atlantic States will move eastward into the western Atlantic on Tue. This system will support fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas across the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf through tonight, then mainly fresh winds will prevail through Wed night. A ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf region trough the middle of the week. A high pressure center will settle over the NE Gulf Thu through Fri producing mainly a gentle to moderate wind flow. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between the high pressure N of the region and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-9 ft over the south central Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 5-6 ft are elsewhere W of 70W. E of 70W, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-5 ft prevail. For the forecast, strong high pressure N of the area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and the central Caribbean through at least Wed. Otherwise, a new set of long period northerly swell will reach the NE Caribbean and the waters just E of the Leeward Islands, including the Atlantic passages by the middle of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on a significant swell event that will start tonight, bringing very rough seas to part of the central Atlantic into mid-week. A cold front extends from 31N60W to the central Bahamas and central Cuba. A second cold front extends from 31N51W to 26N38W. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of these fronts N of 26N. Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-8 ft are west of the first front. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-10 ft prevail E of 35W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, prevail. For the forecast W of 55W, the front will rapidly progress eastward reaching the SE waters by Tue morning. At that time, the cold front will extend from 25N55W to eastern Cuba near 21N76W. Then, the front will reach from 22N55W to 20N74W by Wed morning while dissipating. Strong winds and rough to very rough seas in northerly swell are expected in the wake of the front through the middle of week. A second cold front is forecast to reach the N waters on Wed, and extend from 30N55W to the NW Bahamas by Thu morning. Strong winds and rough seas are expected behind the front.