Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Mar 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: Fresh to strong S winds are east of NE Florida ahead of an approaching cold front. That front will move offshore of NE Florida by this evening, with fresh to gale- force winds and quickly building seas behind it Thu night. A Gale Warning is in effect for a portion of the NW waters for tonight. Peak winds should reach around 35 kt with peak seas around 10 ft tonight. The front will then rapidly weaken and begin to stall as it reaches from near 31N71W to extreme S Florida tomorrow morning, and conditions will gradually improve tomorrow. For the gale events above, please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 07N13W, then reaches southwestward to near 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from 03N20W across 00N25W to near the coast of Brazil at 03S40W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is seen south of 03N between 03W and 25W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... As of 1500 UTC, a strong cold front extends from the Florida panhandle to 25N94W and to inland Mexico just south of Tampico near 20N97W. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and seas of 6 to 10 ft are behind the front. N winds to near gale are over the far west- central Gulf with seas 4-8 ft. A pre-frontal trough extends from 25N88W to the Florida panhandle with scattered moderate convection occurring north of 25N east of 88W. Elsewhere across the Gulf ahead of the front, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 2-5 ft. For the forecast, the cold front will quickly reach from north- central Florida to just SE of Veracruz, Mexico this afternoon, then stall and significantly weaken over the southeastern Gulf tonight into early Fri, dissipating Fri night. Marine conditions will improve significantly early Fri through Sun as weak high pressure settles just N of the basin. Another strong cold front is expected to move into the NW Gulf Sun night and reach the southeastern Gulf by Mon night. Strong to near gale-force winds will follow the front along with seas rapidly becoming rough. Gale force winds will be possible in the NW Gulf, and offshore Tamaulipas and Veracruz, Mexico Mon and Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A moderate pressure gradient betwen the Bermuda-Azores High north of the area and a 1010 mb Colombian Low is producing fresh to strong NE trades just north of Colombia, moderate to fresh E trades over the eastern, central and SW Caribbean, and moderate or weaker in the NW Caribbean. Seas are 8-10 ft just north of Colombia, 5-7 ft over the eastern, central and SW Caribbean, and 2-5 ft over the NW Caribbean. No significant deep convection is occurring over the Caribbean today. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between north-central high pressure and relatively lower pressure in Colombia will support fresh to strong trades across the central basin through the rest of this morning. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will also pulse near the Windward Passage, S of Hispaniola, and the Gulf of Honduras also through the rest of this morning. The high pressure will shift eastward today through Fri night, leading to fresh to strong winds becoming confined to the south- central Caribbean S of 13N during that time, while marine conditions gradually improve area- wide as the pressure gradient weakens. High pressure will build across the Atlantic to the N Sat night through Mon, leading to fresh to strong trades and building seas extending from the Tropical N Atlantic to the eastern and central Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning. Fresh to strong SW winds in advance of a cold front have developed just east of NE Florida with seas 5-6 ft. Winds near the Canary Islands are NE fresh to strong with seas to 12 ft. Elsewhere, ridging extends west- southwestward to 27N80W from a 1033 mb Bermuda-Azores High near 36N30W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the ITCZ is causing widespread moderate to fresh trades over the forecast waters with seas 4-8 ft. A surface trough extending from 22N62W to 27N61W is forcing isolated moderate convection within 60 NM of the trough. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong southerly winds are E of northern Florida ahead of an approaching cold front. That front will move offshore of NE Florida by this evening, with fresh to gale-force winds and quickly building seas behind it Thu night. The front will then rapidly weaken and begin to stall as it reaches from near 31N71W to extreme S Florida Fri morning, then drift to the NW and dissipate Fri evening. High pressure ridging will then prevail across the northern waters Sat and strengthen Sat night through Mon, leading to fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas nearly basin-wide. The next cold front may move into the waters off Florida Mon night.