Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sat Sep 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0400 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is expected to emerge off the west coast of Africa soon, and will likely be added to the 0600 UTC analysis/surface map. A tropical wave is along 29N, south of 20N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is near the southern end of the wave axis. A tropical wave is along 56W, south of 20N, moving W at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 16N to 20N between 54W and 58W. A tropical wave is over the central Caribbean with axis along 72W, and extends from Hispaniola to near the Venezuela/Colombia border. No significant convection is associated with this wave at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Senegal near 14N16W and continues southwestward to 10N24, then westward to 07N40W. The ITCZ extends from 07N40W to 08N53W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 20W and 45W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak ridge continues to dominate the Gulf region supporting light to gentle winds, except gentle to moderate winds over the western Gulf likely due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and a low pressure area over NE Mexico. Seas are generally 1 to 3 ft. Isolated showers, with embedded thunderstorms, dot the central part of the basin. Convection increases over north-central Florida where a surface trough is analyzed. Once again, convection has flared-up over the western Yucatan peninsula and SE Mexico. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas over much of the waters into the middle of next week. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure to the north and the Colombian low is maintaining fresh to strong trades and 5 to 7 ft seas offshore Colombia, and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Similar wind speeds are also noted in the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate to fresh winds are blowing across the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over parts of Cuba and the Cayman Islands and regional waters under a diffluent pattern aloft. Similar convective activity is observed over northern central America. For the forecast, the fresh to strong winds over the central Caribbean will briefly diminish this weekend, then increase to strong speeds early next week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A 1014 mb low pressure is centered off northeast Florida near 30.5N79W. A surface trough extends from the low center across northern Florida. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are associated with these features. Additional showers and thunderstorms along with moderate winds are active along a trough reaching from 25N68W to just north of Hispaniola. A 1018 mb high pressure remains over the western Atlantic and is centered near 28N74W. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast region is also under the influence of a ridge, with the main high pressure center of 1023 mb located midway between the Azores and the Madeira Islands. Under this weather pattern, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. A band of showers and thunderstorms ahead of a cold front is reaching 30N between 40W and 50W. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will prevail across the area into early next week, generating a weak pressure pattern. This will support moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas across the area. A weak cold front may approach the northern waters, then stall along 31N for the first part of next week.