Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed May 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of an eastern Atlantic tropical wave is near 26W, S of 11N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. The axis of an Atlantic tropical wave is near 59W, S of 18N, and is moving westward at around 15 kt. No significant convection is associated with this wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W, and continues southwestward to 03N26W. The ITCZ continues from 03N26W to near 01N50W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted S of 10N between 15W and 25W, and S of 05N between 30W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak high pressure ridge extends from the western Atlantic southwestward to the central Gulf. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and relatively lower pressures in central Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh southeast to south return flow over the western Gulf. Seas over these waters are in the 3-4 ft range. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds, and seas of 1-3 ft, prevail. For the forecast, winds will pulse at fresh to strong speeds from Tampico to Veracruz, Mexico tonight into Wed. Similar winds will pulse near the northern Yucatan Peninsula in the evenings and into the late night hours during the forecast period. A cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf coastal waters Thu morning, quickly stall Thu evening, then lift back to the north as a warm front Fri as high pressure ridging builds back in across the basin from the east. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to strong winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, prevail over the waters S of 15N between 65W and 75W. Moderate winds, and seas of 3-5 ft, generally prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean along with locally rough seas, with similar winds in the Gulf of Honduras through the rest of the week and into the weekend along with moderate to fresh trades over the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean. The remnants of a frontal boundary dissipate by Tue in the far northwest part of the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from 31N61W to 24N72W, where it transitions to a stationary front to 25N75W and to a warm front from there to a weak 1014 mb low near 26N79W. A dissipating stationary front extends from the low to the Straits of Florida. Scattered moderate and isolates strong convection is in the vicinity of the cold front. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail west and north of the frontal boundaries. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, are found N of 29N within 60 nm east of the cold front. A pair of low pressure centers are over the NE waters, one a 1018 mb low near 28N30W, and the other a 1017 mb low near 30N21W. The pressure gradient between these areas of low pressure, and a 1031 mb high centered N of the area near 41N31W is supporting fresh to strong winds north of the lows. Seas over these waters are in the 7-8 ft range. The remainder of the discussion waters N of 20N are dominated by high pressure. Moderate winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, prevail S of 15N between 35W and 60W. Elsewhere, mainly light to gentle winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front will shift east of 55W Thu while the rest of the frontal boundary dissipates. Moderate to locally fresh northeast to east winds north 27N and west of the front to near 76W will diminish tonight. A weak cold front will move offshore the Georgia and northeast Florida coasts Thu night. It will then slowly move eastward across the northwest forecast waters into early Fri, then become stationary near 30N and west of 70W by Fri evening before weakening and dissipating. Scattered showers and thunderstorms will be possible along and near the front. Southerly fresh winds are forecast to develop over the western part of the area late Sun in advance of the next frontal boundary that will be approaching from the northwest. Otherwise, relatively weak high pressure will be in place through the forecast period allowing for generally quiet conditions across the area.