Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Nov 9 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1635 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front is moving over the NW Gulf this morning. The front will continue to move quickly SE through the basin and exit by Mon evening. Strong to near gale-force N to NE winds and rough seas can be expected behind the front, with gale force winds and very rough seas offshore of Veracruz Mon morning through Mon night. Gale force winds are forecast to begin at 10/1200 UTC and end 11/03 UTC. Peak seas off Veracruz are forecast to build to 15 ft by Mon evening. Otherwise, there is a potential for gust to gale force winds for the NW Gulf beginning later this morning and continuing through Mon morning. Conditions will improve basin- wide by Tue evening. For more information, please see the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. Significant Rainfall over Central America: A shearline is expected to form early on Mon over the NW Caribbean Sea and Honduras, enhancing moisture convergence across Guatemala, Belize, Honduras, and Nicaragua. The shearline will move south on Monday, and will interact with a surface trough off the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Tuesday morning, resulting in enhanced moisture convergence. A potent cold front will then arrive in Guatemala, Honduras, and Belize on Tuesday morning, after which it will become stationary and linger across the region through Thursday. Significant rainfall over the course of several days will be possible as a result, and will raise concerns for life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. This information was provided by the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon enters the Atlantic waters near 10N15W and continues southwestward to near 07N18W. The ITCZ extends from 17N18W to 08N32W to 05N49W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 05N to 12N between the coast of Africa and 48W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends from Pecan Island, Louisiana to Loyola Beach, Texas. Isolated moderate convection is found along the front. An upper level trough is supporting a cluster of moderate convection from 27N to 29N, and west of 86W. Elsewhere, ridging extends over the basin, supporting light to gentle winds and slight seas. For the forecast, a strong cold front has moved into the NW Gulf this morning and will race SE through the basin, exiting by Mon evening. Strong to near gale-force N to NE winds and rough seas can be expected behind the front, with gale force winds and very rough seas offshore of Veracruz Mon morning through Mon night. There is a potential for wind gusts gusts to gale force winds for the NW Gulf beginning later this morning and continuing through Mon morning. Conditions will improve basin-wide by Tue evening. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The eastern end of the Pacific Monsoon Trough is supporting scattered moderate convection, across the offshore waters of Honduras, Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. A surface trough is moving across the E Caribbean and through the Mona Passage along with scattered moderate convection. Otherwise, a prevalent ridge extending across the northern basin continues to tighten the gradient across the eastern and central Caribbean, thus supporting the continuation of fresh trades and moderate seas to 8 ft in these regions. Moderate or weaker trades are ongoing in the NW basin with slight seas. For the forecast, locally strong winds and rough seas are expected in the south- central Caribbean through Mon night. Rough seas in east swell over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles will gradually subside into Tue morning. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean waters Mon afternoon, bringing strong to near gale force N winds and rough seas in its wake. The front will stall from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras late Tue and gradually weaken through Wed evening. Aside from the strong winds and seas, the front will support the development of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms over Central America and adjacent waters through Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers and isolated tstms are ongoing offshore NE and central Florida. A surface trough is supporting isolated showers north of 29N between 62W and 65W. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of the Azores High that is anchored by a 1030 mb high near 35N36W. East of 55W, winds are gentle to moderate, with seas 3 to 6 ft. West of 55W and south of 28N, moderate to fresh winds prevail along with moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh S to SW winds developing offshore of NE Florida this morning will reach fresh to strong speeds tonight into Mon ahead of a strong cold front that will push off the SE U.S. tonight. The front will progress SE and reach from Bermuda to E Cuba Tue afternoon, with the southern portion of the front stalling from 27N65W to E Cuba Tue evening into Wed. Strong to gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas are expected behind the front Mon afternoon into Tue night. Winds then will gradually diminish through Wed.