Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Apr 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W, and continues southwestward to south of the Equator at 19W and to 02S23W. The ITCZ extends from 02S23W to 04S30W and to 04S36W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm south of the ITCZ between 30W-35W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 25W-27W and within 30 nm north of the ITCZ between 25.5W-28W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A relatively weak high pressure ridge extends from the western Atlantic westward across the northern Gulf coast. The associated pressure gradient is allowing for gentle to moderate southeast winds across the basin, except for mostly moderate southeast winds over the far western Gulf and in the central Bay of Campeche. Latest buoy observations and recent altimeter satellite data reveal seas of 3 to 4 ft over the basin. Isolated showers are over the western part of the Straits of Florida. For the forecast, the interaction between the high pressure ridge and a coastal trough that is just offshore Mexico from near Tampico to Veracruz will support moderate to fresh southeast winds and moderate seas over the western half of the Gulf, and gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas over the eastern part of the basin this weekend into early next week. In addition, a diurnal trough will pulse moderate winds to fresh off the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings through the middle of the next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A rather weak pressure gradient is allowing for mostly gentle east to southeast winds across the basin, including offshore Colombia. Winds are southeast to south in direction west of about 79W. Seas throughout are about 2 to 4 ft, including in the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate convection is evident north of Jamaica between 75W and 78W, including over some sections of eastern Cuba. Similar activity is over some sections of central and western Cuba, and just offshore western Cuba to the waters near the Isle of Youth. Isolated showers are over the northern part of the Windward Passage. For the forecast, high pressure located north of the basin will continue to weaken over the next couple of days as a trough, currently located N of Puerto Rico, Hispaniola and eastern Cuba lifts northward during the upcoming weekend. This weather pattern will support a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea into Mon, resulting in mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire basin. Winds are forecast to reach moderate to fresh speeds over the east and central Caribbean Mon night through midweek as high pressure builds again north of the area. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough, remnants of a frontal boundary, is analyzed from near 22N56W to 21N69W and west-northwestward to 23N79W. Aloft, a rather vigorous shortwave trough is just east of the Florida peninsula as seen in water vapor imagery. Divergence east of the trough is helping to sustain a large area of moderate rain, with embedded numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms that covers the waters south of 28N and between 66W and 77W. A weak 1017 mb high is analyzed northeast of the northern Bahamas near 28N69W. The associated gradient is supporting moderate or lighter northeast to east winds, and slight to moderate seas over the western half of the basin. A dissipating cold front extends from near 31N36W southwest to 27N48W. A 1020 mb high is analyzed to the southeast of the front near 27N26W. The pressure gradient between these two features is supporting moderate to fresh southwest winds east of the front to near 30W and north of 25N. Seas with these winds are 7 to 10 ft primarily in northeast swell. Moderate to fresh northeast winds are between the Canary and Cape Verde Islands, and along the coast of NW Africa along with moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned trough will lift northward this weekend. Weal low pressure may develop along the trough axis east of the southeastern Bahamas on Sat, and move eastward through Sun before dissipating. This will support gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas across most of the forecast area through the weekend. The exception will be over the NE waters where fresh to locally strong westerly winds and rough seas are expected beginning late this afternoon as another cold front clips the region by late Sat into Sun. A third cold front will enter the waters off NE Florida by Sun night, and extend from 31N70W to South Florida by Mon night.