Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Feb 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large NW swell propagating across the central and eastern waters E of 65W continues to slowly subside. Overnight altimeter data and Sofar Ocean drifting buoys show that peak seas associated with this event have lowered to 10-12 ft, and encompass much of the open waters N of 06N and E of 50W. Seas across this region are forecast to subside below 12 ft this morning, and in general will subside modestly from NW to SE this afternoon through Fri night. However, a strong and broad surface ridge is forecast to persist across the eastern and central Atlantic this weekend into next week. The pressure gradient to the south of this associated ridge will produce a large area of strong NE to E trade winds from near the Cabo Verde Islands to the central tropical Atlantic, and produce a significant area of seas 12 ft and higher this weekend through early next week. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10.5N14.5W and continues southwestward to 06N18.5W. The ITCZ extends from 06N18.5W to 02N23W and to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 120 nm on both sides of the monsoon trough and ITCZ, S of 05N between 07W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... An extensive subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends across Florida and into the Gulf waters, supporting fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas to 9 ft in the NW and N central Gulf. Fresh to locally strong southeasterly winds and moderate seas are seen from north of the Yucatan peninsula to the central Mexican coast. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds across much of the NW half of the Gulf will gradually diminish this afternoon into this evening, ahead of the next cold front forecast to enter the NW Gulf early Fri. This next weak cold front is expected to sink slowly southward across the north half of the Gulf Fri through Sat night and gradually dissipate. High pressure N of the Gulf will build back across the basin Sun and Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The remnants of a stationary front across Haiti and portions of the Windward Passage earlier tonight have shifted westward and dissipated. However, freshening trade wind flow across much of the basin E of 80W is producing scattered showers from 16N across much of the central and eastern Caribbean. The remnants of the dissipated frontal boundary also continue to support scattered showers near the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua. The tightening pressure gradient between the expansive subtropical Atlantic ridge to the north and lower pressures in northern Colombia sustain strong NE to E winds and rough seas to 10 ft in the south-central Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas are occurring elsewhere across the basin E of 80W, including the Windward Passage. Elsewhere to the W, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the broad high pressure N of the basin will shift NE across the Atlantic through early Sat and maintain a broad ridge across the central and western Atlantic, bringing a return to fresh to strong trades across most of the central Caribbean. Meanwhile, rough seas in mixed swell will prevail in the Tropical N Atlantic through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information about the Significant Swell Event in the central and eastern Atlantic. A stationary front extends from 31N50W to near the Turks and Caicos Islands, and has begun to drift westward N of Hispaniola in recent hours. Scattered showers are occurring N of this boundary, and through the SE Bahamas and nearby waters. High pressure is centered N of the front to the NE of Bermuda and extends a ridge southwestward across S Florida and across the Gulf of America. This pressure pattern is producing moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas to 9 ft in N to NE swell south of 25N and west of the front. Elsewhere N of 25N between the front and 70W, gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds prevail with rough seas to 10 ft. The rest of the central and eastern Atlantic is under the influence of an expansive subtropical ridge anchored by a 1032 mb high pressure located SW of the Azores near 34N31W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics and western Africa forces moderate to locally strong trade winds and rough to very rough seas over much of the central and eastern Atlantic. Seas of 8 to 12 ft in NW to N swell cover the entire area E of the front from 70W to 30W. For the forecast west of 55W, the NW to N swell dominating the regional waters will gradually subside through Thu night. However seas over the SE waters are expected to continue at 8 ft and higher in easterly trade wind swell through the end of the period. The front will drift W and dissipate today as the high pressure N of the front shifts NE into the central Atlantic, producing a broad ridge across the entire region that is expected to persist until Sat. A weak front will shift off the SE U.S. coast early Sat and move slowly southeastward and weaken across the waters W of 65W through Sun night before dissipating.