Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Mar 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: A gale warning is in effect, issued by Meteo-France, for the high seas zones of Irving, west of Madeira, and Meteor until 20/00 UTC at least, with severe gusts. Please refer to the next Special Feature for details on associated large swells. Please refer to the high seas forecast issued by Meteo-France on the website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details. East Atlantic Long-period N Swell: Large, long-period north swell generated by a large fetch of gale to storm-force winds in the northeast Atlantic will continue to propagate southward of 31N through the weekend. Expect seas of 12-24 ft through Sat mainly N of the Cape Verde Islands and east of 43W. Seas across these northeastern waters will then gradually reduce in areal coverage and subside below 12 ft near the Canary Islands on Mon. Please refer to the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, then curves southwestward to 02.5N34W. The ITCZ continues from 02N35W to 01S43W to the coast of Brazil near 01.5S45W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 05.5N between 13W and 20W, and from 03S to 04N between 20W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1026 mb high pressure system across SW Georgia extends a ridge south and southwestward across the Gulf of America, behind a stalling front across the NW Caribbean. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures associated with the stationary front southeast of the area is resulting in fresh to strong N-NE winds across the Florida Straits, and adjacent waters of SW Florida and the Yucatan Channel with rough seas of 4 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas to 5 ft prevail elsewhere across the eastern Gulf east of 90W. West of 90W, moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds and slight to moderate seas 4 ft or less prevail. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the ridge currently across the Gulf region and the stationary front over the NW Caribbean will continue to support fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and moderate to rough seas over the SE Gulf, and Straits of Florida through Fri. Moderate to fresh NE winds are expected across the eastern Bay of Campeche at night through Sat night due to local effects. Elsewhere gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail through Sun. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from central Cuba along 79.5W to just offshore of NE Nicaragua near 14.5N83W and then westward and inland, and has been drifting southward across the coastal waters of NE Honduras and Nicaragua in recent hours. A surface trough continues E of the front to 20N80.5W then curves southeastward to well offshore of NW Colombia. Low level convergence induced by both the front and the pre- frontal trough continue to support scattered showers across E Cuba and adjacent waters N of 16N, as well across along the northern coast of Honduras. Moderate to fresh northerly winds with seas to 9 ft are behind of the front over the NW Caribbean. Over the eastern and central Caribbean, moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas to 7 ft prevail. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds and moderate to rough seas will continue to the northwest of the stalled front across the NW Caribbean, as it drifts southeastward before dissipating offshore Nicaragua late on Fri. Afterward, moderate to fresh NE winds will remain in the western Caribbean, including the lee side of Cuba and the Windward Passage as high pressure develops across the northern Bahamas in the wake of the front. As the ridge shifts slightly eastward, fresh to strong winds will develop offshore Colombia Sun night through Mon night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Special Features section for details on an east Atlantic Gale Warning issued by Meteo-France, and associated large northerly swells across the far NE waters. A stationary front extends from 1012 mb low pressure near 33N68W to 28N73W, then through the central Bahamas and southern Andros Island to central Cuba and into the NW Caribbean. A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from 30N67W to the southern Bahamas near 21N73.5W. Heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms associated with both features cover the offshore waters N of 20N between 65W and the front. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and moderate to rough seas of 5 to 9 ft are noted W of the front, while moderate to fresh SE to S winds are east of the front and trough to 60W, where moderate to rough seas of 6 to 9 ft in easterly swell prevail. An extensive 1032 mb high pressure system centered near 38N45W dominates the remainder SW N Atlantic and central subtropical waters, and is producing fresh to strong NE to E winds between 35W and 60W, where seas are 8 to 12 ft in mixed E and N swell, except for the NE waters N of 22N and E of 40W, where large N swell mentioned in the special features section is producing seas of 12 to 20 ft. Over the eastern subtropical waters, a cold front has moved across the Canary Islands with a reinforcing front trailing the leading front. The pressure gradient between the broad ridge and the low pressure system associated with the front is supporting fresh to gale-force winds and very rough seas to 22 ft, N of 24N and east of 40W to the coast of Africa. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds and rough seas of 7 to 11 ft in N swell prevail across the waters S of 24N and E of 35W to the Cabo Verde Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will remain nearly stationary from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas today. A weak low pressure is forecast to develop along the frontal boundary late today into Fri. This will tighten the pressure gradient, supporting fresh to strong winds and rough seas on either side of front and across the offshore waters N of 25N through the weekend, as this system then transitions to a cold front and moves east of the area. A new cold front is forecast to enter the NE Florida offshore waters Mon night into Tue, followed by fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas.