Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Oct 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2200 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea Bissau near 11N16W and continues to 08N26W. The ITCZ extends from 08N26W to 09N39W, where it is broken by a surface trough. The ITCZ then resumes from 07N44W to 10N63W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N-11N between 24W-37W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure over the Tennessee Valley extends a ridge north of the Gulf. The pressure gradient tightens over the eastern half of the Gulf due to the presence of a stationary front north of the Bahamas and a trough near the Yucatan Peninsula. This is resulting in moderate to fresh NE winds east of 91W along with moderate to locally rough seas. Moderate or weaker winds prevail west of 91W. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between a high pressure system over the Carolinas and low pressure over the Bahamas will continue to support moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas in the northeast and north-central Gulf into early next week. Looking ahead, expect fresh SE to S winds over much of the northwest Gulf by Tue night between high pressure over the western Atlantic and a cold front moving through the Southern Plains. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front over the SW N Atlantic waters is supporting a weak gradient over the Caribbean waters west of 76W, thus leading to light to gentle winds and slight seas. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas are elsewhere. A surface trough extending from the Windward Passage into the central Caribbean is supporting scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 15N between 70W-77W. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh trade winds will continue south of 15N through the eastern, central and portions of the SW Caribbean through Sun night, then diminish. Light to gentle breezes are forecast elsewhere into early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends east to west along roughly 29N/30N to a 1012 mb low pressure area centered near the northern Bahamas, then southwestward as a trough to the Florida Straits. A tight pressure gradient exists between a high pressure system over the NW Atlantic and the stationary front. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas prevail north of the front and west of 55W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring north of 23N between 65W-73W. The aforementioned stationary front connects to a cold front near 29N31W and extends northeastward to 31N29W. Scattered showers and tstms are north of 23N and ahead of the front to 23W. Moderate to fresh winds are east of 60W north of the front with seas of 6-8 ft. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas will persist north of the front into next week as the low pressure moves northeastward to past Bermuda and the newly reinforced front moves to the southeast then stalls along 24N.