Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Oct 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Isaias is centered near 23.7N 90.2W at 1500 UTC, or 150 nm N of Progreso Mexico, moving E-NE at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are near 22 ft (6 m) within 60 nm across the NE semicircle. Numerous moderate to strong convection extends from 22N to 25N between 88.5W and 91.5W. Scattered to locally numerous isolated strong convection is seen elsewhere from 23N to 29N between 83W and 90W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in outer rainbands in the SW Gulf. On the forecast track, Isaias is expected to continue to the north of the Yucatan Peninsula today, gradually turning northward tonight through Fri, then make landfall along the U.S. northern Gulf Coast within the warning area late Friday or early Saturday. Additional strengthening is expected through early Friday, and Isaias should remain a strong hurricane as it approaches the northern Gulf Coast Friday night. Swell generated by the hurricane have begun to affect the western and northwestern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula today, and will spread outward in all directions tonight through Friday, reaching western Cuba and southeastern Mexico tonight, and southwestern Florida by late Fri morning. These swells are likely to cause large and powerful surf, and life- threatening rip current conditions. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and the latest Isaias NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic near 23W, extending from 05N-19N, moving westward around 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends from 05N to 18N between the W coast of Africa and 25W. A tropical wave is in the central Caribbean with an axis near 75W, moving westward at around 15 kt. This wave is interacting with a broad upper level low over the W Caribbean. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is from 11N to 20.5N, and across portions of Hispaniola and SE Cuba, between 71W and 78W. This wave is also forcing moderate to locally fresh winds from 16N to the coast of Hispaniola, with gusty winds and rough seas likely in the areas of strong convection. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and extends to 08N17W to 11N22W to 13N32W to 10.5N42W. The ITCZ extends from 09.5N45W to 11N60W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 12N to 15N between 28W and 43W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on Hurricane Isaias. An old frontal boundary extends from the western Atlantic across central Florida and into the eastern Gulf along about 27N. Convection remains active, as described above with Hurricane Isaias, both to the N and S of the front and extends inland across western Florida between Cape Coral and the Tampa Bay area. High pressure across the southeastern U.S. extends across the northern Gulf. The pressure gradient between this high and the front is forcing fresh to strong E to NE winds to the north of the front, and extends into the NW Gulf waters to the northwest of Isaias. Seas are 5 to 9 ft across this area. Elsewhere, fresh NW to W winds wrap cyclonically across the SW Gulf and into the western Yucatan, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. is near 23.3N 91.2W at 5 AM EDT, and is moving east- northeast at 8 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Otherwise, a weakening stationary front is over the NE Gulf, extending from the Tampa Bay region to 27N86W. This frontal boundary is expected to lift northward and dissipate tonight. For the forecast, Hurricane Isaias will move to near 24.9N 89.0W this evening with maximum sustained winds 90 kt gusts 110 kt, to near 27.1N 87.9W Fri morning, and begin to weaken as it moves to near 29.6N 87.4W Fri evening. Isaias is forecast to move well inland and weaken to a tropical storm near 32.3N 87.8W Sat morning, then dissipate early on Mon. Swells will affect the western and northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula beginning later today and spread northward toward the Gulf Coast on Fri. In the wake of Isaias, weak high pressure will develop over the north- central Gulf by Sun evening resulting in moderate or weaker return flow over the western Gulf through midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate or weaker winds are across the Caribbean W of the tropical wave along 75W, along with slight seas. Over the central basin, a tropical wave is interacting with an upper level low to generate scattered heavy showers and tstms over the central Caribbean, described above, with the strongest convection N of 16N and into Hispaniola, eastern Cuba, and the adjacent waters. Gusty winds and rough seas are likely ongoing in the area of strongest convection. Over the E basin, moderate to locally fresh E to E-SE winds are present, with moderate seas to 6 ft, supported by high pressure centered to the SE of Bermuda. For the forecast, Hurricane Isaias in the Gulf of America, and a frontal boundary N of the Bahamas will maintain a weak pressure gradient over the NW and SW Caribbean, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas through tonight. Moderate to fresh trades in the central and eastern basin will prevail through Mon as high pressure SE of Bermuda slowly drifts westward through Fri evening, before dissipating over the weekend. As a result, winds are forecast to briefly reach moderate to fresh speeds over the NW Caribbean on Fri. A tropical wave in the central Caribbean near 75W is accompanied by numerous thunderstorms between 70W and 75W. The wave will move across the rest of the central Caribbean through this evening and across the western Caribbean tonight through the weekend. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast basin- wide by late Mon as a cold front moves across the offshore waters N of the Bahamas and helps to weaken the pressure gradient across the region. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 1009 mb low pressure just W of Bermuda west-southwestward to central Florida near Cocoa Beach, then into the eastern Gulf of America. Low level moisture converging along both sides of the boundary are leading to scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the offshore waters N of 27.5N and W of 74W. Moderate easterly winds are N of the front and W of 75W. Moderate to fresh SW winds prevail N of 28N between 59W and 70W, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Farther E near the front, scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring N of 30N to the front, between 55W and 64W. At the surface, a 1018 mb high is centered near 29.5N53W, and extends a broad ridge southwest to 60W and then westward to the NW Bahamas. Across the central Atlantic, a deep layered upper trough has induced a surface trough below it, extending from 29N39W to 21N49W. This deep layered feature is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms N of 20N between 34W and 48W. A broad surface ridge associated with the Azores High dominate the subtropical Atlantic waters E of 38W. The gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated with both the aforementioned surface trough and a dissipating cold front over NW Africa, is supporting fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas to 6 ft N of 20N and E of 44W. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with slight to moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will weaken through tonight. Its northern portion will transition to a cold front that moves past Bermuda by this evening while its western portion will lift back N as a warm front on Sat. Easterly winds will reach fresh to strong speeds off NE Florida tonight as Hurricane Isaias continue to track northward across the Gulf of America. These winds will veer to the SE at fresh speeds early on Sat before weakening to moderate speeds by Sun morning. Otherwise, high pressure to the SE of Bermuda will shift westward on Fri, thus resulting in an increased pressure gradient and ESE winds of moderate to fresh speeds S of 24N through Sun night. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to push off the U.S. southeastern coast early on Mon and move across the waters N of 29N through midweek.