Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Oct 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2115 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A tightening pressure gradient will develop as high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic and low pressure deepens near the central Bahamas along a trough or developing frontal boundary. This synoptic setup is expected to induce widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas, with winds likely reaching gale-force over much of the waters north of 27N and W of 60W Sat night through Sun night. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid the affected areas. Please, see the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https:www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. Heavy Rainfall Event in the North Caribbean: A mid to upper level trough over the northern Caribbean combined with abundant tropical moisture will support periods of heavy rain over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, Jamaica, the southern Bahamas, and the Turks and Caicos Islands this weekend and Mon. By mid-week, the trough is forecast to weaken and move eastward into the central Atlantic. Heavy rainfall will raise concerns for dangerous and life- threatening flash flooding. Please refer to your local weather services and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Africa near 11N15W to 10N23W. The ITCZ extends from 11N15W to 12N32W, and resumes from 12N36W to 10N60W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 22N between 21W and 31W, and from 05N to 10N between 33W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure over the eastern United States extends a ridge over the western Gulf waters. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a trough over the Caribbean is supporting moderate winds, and moderate seas, E of 94W. Gentle winds, and slight to moderate seas,prevail W of 94W. For the forecast, a tightening pressure gradient between the high pressure and low pressure forecast to develop near the central Bahamas will bring fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas over the eastern Gulf, including the Florida Straits, beginning tonight through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for information about the potential for heavy rainfall over eastern Cuba, Hispaniola, and Jamaica. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas prevail E of 75W, with gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, W of 75W. For the forecast, an upper level trough over the eastern Gulf of America and NW Caribbean will support scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Caribbean and Windward Passage through Sun night. Meanwhile, a broad trough over the central and western Caribbean will support light winds and slight to moderate seas west of 76W through Sat, and moderate to fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas east of 76W. Looking ahead, expect fresh N to NE winds across the western Caribbean with building seas west of 80W early next week as high pressure builds north of the area. Expect rough seas and large N swell across the Yucatan Channel Mon and Tue. Little change is expected elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for information about a Gale Warning over the western Atlantic, and a heavy rain event over the southern Bahamas and the Turks and Caicos Islands. A surface trough extends from 31N56W to low pres near 27N71W to W Cuba. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is within 150 nm southeast of the trough and west of 61W. Moderate winds, and moderate to rough seas are west of the trough. Another trough extends from 31N48W to 26N41W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 90 nm east of the trough. Fresh to locally strong winds, and rough seas, are within 90 nm east of the trough and N of 29W. A third trough is over the eastern tropical Atlantic, from 20N31W to 13N34W. Active convection east of the trough is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section above. Fresh to strong winds are between the Cabo Verde Islands and western Africa, where rough seas are noted. Moderate to fresh winds, and moderate seas, are elsewhere east of 50W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, large northerly swell across the forecast waters W of 65W and NE of the Bahamas will gradually subside tonight through early Sat. A tightening pressure gradient will develop across the northwestern zones beginning this evening as high pressure builds southward over the western Atlantic, and low pressure deepens near the central Bahamas along a cold front moving slowly southward into the area. This setup is expected to induce widespread fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas, with winds reaching gale-force over much of the waters north of 29N and between 60W and 74W early Sun through Sun night. Mariners are urged to remain alert to these dangerous marine conditions, and take the necessary precautions to avoid the affected areas.