Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Feb 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends from 04N13W to 01N33W and to 00N50W. Scattered moderate convection is observed along the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak pressure gradient persist across the Gulf waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds over much of the basin. Locally fresh easterly winds are noted north of the Yucatan peninsula. Slight to moderate seas are found over much of the basin. The southerly flow in the western Gulf is lifting northward smoke from agricultural fires in southern Mexico. Mariners are advised that this may reduce the visibility in the area. For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh S to SE winds and moderate seas are expected over the central and western Gulf through Fri as ridging prevails over the eastern basin. Locally strong E to SE winds will pulse in the south-central basin, north of the Yucatan Peninsula, each afternoon and night through Fri as a trough develops daily over the region. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is slated to move into the northern Gulf this weekend and sweep over the basin through early next week. Gale force winds and very rough seas will be possible offshore of Tampico and Veracruz Sun into Mon, and widespread fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are expected elsewhere in the wake of the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad subtropical ridge centered SE of Bermuda continues to influence the Caribbean Sea, supporting strong to near gale-force NE-E winds and rough seas in the south-central Caribbean. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the north-central and eastern Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and also the Gulf of Honduras. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds will pulse in the south-central Caribbean through this weekend as a moderate pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and the Colombian low. Winds may reach near-gale force each night offshore of northern Colombia, and rough seas are expected near and to the west of these winds. Elsewhere, fresh to strong E to SE winds and occasionally rough seas will occur in the Gulf of Honduras into early Sun. Otherwise, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds are expected over the rest of the basin through the forecast period. Looking ahead, rough seas may develop east of the Lesser Antilles late this week as a N swell progresses through the central tropical Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends southwestward from a storm-force extratropical low that is well east of Newfoundland, to the tropical Atlantic near 31N44W and continues southwestward to 26N53W, where it becomes a stationary front to 24N68W. A few showers are noted near these boundaries. Moderate winds and rough to very rough seas are occurring north of these boundaries. Moderate to fresh southerly winds and rough seas are found north of 28N and east of the cold front to 33W. Meanwhile in the far NE Atlantic, fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 5-7 ft are evident off Morocco and the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, a broad subtropical ridge sustain moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. However, seas to 8 ft are present off NE South America. Saharan dust is noted in the eastern Atlantic east of about 35W. For the forecast west of 55W, rough seas occurring east of 70W will slowly subside from west to east tonight into early Fri in the wake of a weakening front currently extending from the 31N43W to 23N68W. Moderate to locally fresh E to NE winds will continue through tonight over the central basin as high pressure builds over the western Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds will occur offshore of northern Florida into this weekend as a front passes north of the region. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere through Sat. Looking ahead, a strong cold front is slated to push offshore of the southeastern U.S. on Sun, and increasing winds and rapidly building seas are expected in the wake of the front through early next week.