Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Mar 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf tonight, then move southeastward across the Gulf through Mon night. Widespread strong to near-gale northerly winds will follow the front, peaking to gale-force off the Texas coast tonight through early Mon morning, then off the Mexico coast from the Texas-Mexico border southward to near Veracruz Mon. Seas will peak to 15 ft with the strongest winds. Winds off Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico could gust up to storm-force on Mon. Both winds and seas should gradually subside from north to south starting Mon evening. Please refer to the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N14W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 04S37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 360 nm on either side of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the western Gulf waters. A broad surface ridge continues to dominate the eastern and central Gulf with gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight seas. Moderate with fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas prevail for the NW Gulf. For the forecast, a strong cold front will enter the NW Gulf tonight, quickly reaching the southeastern Gulf by Mon night and slow down as it moves into the northwestern Caribbean on Tue. Strong to gale-force N winds and building seas will follow the front. Gale conditions and rough to very rough seas will be possible in the NW Gulf, and offshore Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico on Sun night and Mon. The winds offshore Tampico and Veracruz may attain gusts to storm-force. In the wake of the front, high pressure will build across the region into midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A relatively fair trade-wind pattern continues across much of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas are present at the south-central basin. Moderate with fresh ENE winds and moderate seas dominate the eastern, north- central and part of the southwestern basin. Moderate to fresh E winds and moderate seas are present at the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle with moderate NE to SE winds and slight seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure will continue to build westward across the west and central Atlantic today. The resulting pressure gradient will lead to fresh to strong trades and building seas from the waters E of the Lesser Antilles today, and to the eastern and central Caribbean including the passages on Mon. The pressure gradient will weaken by Tue as a cold front approaches the NW Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are active along a trough extending southwestward from near Bermuda across 31N70W to 29N79W. Moderate to fresh E to ESE winds and moderate seas are found off northeastern Florida, and from 20N to 24N and west of 50W, including the southeast Bahamas. For north of 24N and west of 50W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and moderate seas in mixed moderate swells are noted. To the east and southeast from the Equator to 31N between 35W and 50W, moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas in large NE to E swell exist. For the tropical Atlantic from the Equator to 20N and west of 50W, fresh to strong ENE to E winds and rough seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will build toward the Bahamas through the remainder of the weekend before it will retreat eastward early this week in response to the next cold front. The front will move off the U.S. southeastern coast Mon evening, then slow down and stall from near 31N70W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba by late Tue. Fresh to strong southerly winds and rough seas will develop over the NW forecast waters starting this evening ahead of the front. Fresh to strong northwest winds will follow the front through Tue. To the south, rough seas produced by long-period E swell will impact the waters E of the Bahamas early next week before slowly subsiding during midweek.