Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Jan 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front extends from a 999 mb low pressure located near 32N72W to the northern Bahamas and western Cuba. The front will reach from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall and weaken. Widespread fresh to strong winds will accompany the front through Fri. Winds are forecast to reach gale force tonight on either side of the front N of 29N. Rough to very rough seas are also expected ahead and behind the front through Fri. Another cold front may impact the basin late in the upcoming weekend. Please read the latest High Sea Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends 11N15W to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 02N35W to 01N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 01N to 05N between 10W and 23W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... As of 2100 UTC, high pressure of 1022 mb located over the NW Gulf extends a ridge across the basin in the wake of a cold front that has shifted southeast of the area. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and seas of 8 to 12 ft dominate most of the basin. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted covering the waters S of 27N due to the advection of cold air over relatively warm waters. A cold weather advisory has been issued for most of South Florida between 3 am and 9 am. Very cold wind chills in the lower 30s are expected. For the forecast, marine conditions will improve from NW to SE across the Gulf region tonight. A reinforcing front will bring a surge of fresh to near-gale northerly winds and rough seas over the basin this weekend. Gales are possible off Tampico, Mexico Sunday. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extends from western Cuba across the NW Caribbean into northern Belize and Guatemala. Fresh to strong NW winds and building seas follow the front. A band of mainly low level clouds, with possible showers, is associated with the front in this area. Havana, Cuba reported gusty winds to 26 kt with the frontal passage. Except for some fresh E trades just north of Colombia and Venezuela, winds across the Caribbean are moderate or weaker. Seas across the Caribbean are in general 3 to 5 ft. An band of showers, with embedded thunderstorms is noted over the central Caribbean, roughly extending from southern Haiti to 12N79W. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. Showers and thunderstorms are flaring up over northern Colombia and parts of Panama. For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong offshore of NW Colombia Fri night, reaching near-gale force at night starting Sat night and into early next week. The cold front over the NW Caribbean will stall from E Cuba to Honduras on Fri, and dissipate on Sat. The pressure gradient may tighten in the wake of the front later in the upcoming weekend and early next week leading to increasing winds and building seas across the basin. A reinforcing front and surge of winds will arrive in the NW Caribbean early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about a Gale Warning. As of 2100 UTC, a cold front extends from a 999 mb low pressure located near 32N72W to the northern Bahamas and western Cuba. A well defined band of showers and thunderstorms is associated with the front. Fresh to strong winds and building seas are noted on either side of the front. High pressure dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region, with a 1035 mb center located W of the Azores. Under the influence of this system, an area of fresh to strong NE winds is noted from 12N to 23N and E of 30W to the coast of W Africa, including the Cabo Verde Islands. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are within these winds based on a couple of altimeter passes. Moderate to locally fresh trades are observed across the tropical Atlantic with moderate to rough seas. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas are elsewhere. An upper-level low remains over the east-central Atlantic near 23N40W generating abundant cloudiness and isolated showers and thunderstorms. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will reach from near Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Fri morning, and from 31N59W to 25N70W Sat morning where it will stall and weaken. Widespread fresh to strong winds will accompany the front through Fri. Winds are forecast to reach gale force tonight on either side of the front N of 29N. Another cold front may impact the basin late in the upcoming weekend.