Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Feb 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for their Agadir, Tarfaya, and Canarias Marine Zones, all of which are valid through at least 15/12 UTC. For more details, please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 10N14W to 04N19W. The ITCZ continues from 04N19W through 02N30W to north of Sao Luis, Brazil at 01N45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted along the ITCZ between 20W and 37W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A pre-frontal trough has entered the NW Gulf, enhancing scattered moderate convection N of 28N between 87W-91W. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge extending southwestward from central Florida to south of Tampico, Mexico dominates the area. Fresh to near-gale southerly return flow and moderate seas prevail over the northwestern waters. Strong S to SW winds and moderate seas are noted across the central Gulf waters. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail across the northern portion of the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the fresh to near-gale southerly winds and moderate seas will prevail over the northwestern waters ahead of a cold front that will enter the NW Gulf waters by tonight. As the front moves across the basin, rough seas will develop across the northern Gulf today. The front is forecast to move SE of the area by Mon afternoon, with winds and seas decreasing. High pres will build in the wake of the front. Gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas will prevail by midweek. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends from Haiti to 15N75W. A trade-wind regime persist for the rest of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas are present off northwestern Colombia, south of the Dominican Republic and near the Windward Passage. Fresh to strong ENE winds and moderate seas are found at the lee of Cuba. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, pulsing strong NE winds will prevail near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Moderate to rough seas are expected with these winds. Strong winds will also pulse over the Windward Passage and S of the Dominican Republic today as a high pressure center passing N of the area maintains a tight pressure gradient. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail through the middle of next week, except for light to gentle winds over the NW Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic through 31N48W to 23N56W, then continues as a stationary to the Dominican Republic. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted up to 80 nm along either side of the cold front. A 1024 mb high off the Georgia/South Carolina coast is supporting gentle to moderate NE to SE winds with moderate seas north of 26N and west of 50W. To the south, moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate seas from 20N to 26N and west of 55W, including the central and southeast Bahamas. Between 50W/55W and 35W, and north of 20N, moderate with fresh SE to S winds and rough seas in mixed moderate to large swells exist. For the tropical Atlantic from the Equator to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate ENE to SE winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure will continue to build in the wake of the central Atlantic front. S winds will strengthen offshore north and central Florida today in advance of a cold front that will move off the SE U.S. coast on Mon. The cold front will shift eastward over the forecast waters, moving east of the area the middle of next week. Fresh to strong NE winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front. These winds will diminish by the middle of next week, with rough seas lingering E of 60W.