Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon Dec 1 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Seas: A large area of strong E winds extends across the central Atlantic from 18N to 30N, between 20W and 60W. These conditions are being generated by the pressure gradient between a 1034 mb Azores, lower pressure along the Atlantic ITCZ, and a robust surface trough that extends along 60W from 18N to 25N. Rough seas in easterly waves are combining with fading NW swell across this zone to produce seas of 8 to 13 ft. The highest seas are occurring within the zone of strongest winds in a corridor near the apex of the trough, from 20N to 26N between 48W and 58W. The trough will continue to move W and pass north of the Leeward Islands tonight through Tue. Winds will diminish slightly through the period, but given the long fetch and duration of the winds, this pattern will support seas of 12 to 13 ft through this evening over an area from 22N to 28N between 50W and 58W. Winds will be moderate to fresh by Wed, but 8-10 ft seas will persist across tropical Atlantic waters east of 60W through late week. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 13N17W and continues to 07N19W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N19.5W to 04.5N35W to 04.5N45W to 07N50W to 07N59W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 10N and east of 48W. GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends from the Florida Big Bend to 27.5N97W to just offshore of Cabo Rojo, Mexico and then westward and inland. Strong NE to E winds and 6 to 9 ft seas are north of the front and into the Texas coastal waters, while fresh to strong NW to N winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail west of the front across the Mexican waters. Scattered showers are evident along and behind the front. A low level cyclonic clouds swirl is seen on satellite imagery and analyzed as a 1015 mb surface low near 25.5N89.5W. An old frontal boundary extends from the Florida Straits northwestward to just northeast of this surface low, where scattered moderate to strong showers are occurring along the boundary. Fresh easterly winds and seas of 3 to 6 ft prevail between the trough and the front. Gentle to moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere across the Gulf. For the forecast, low pressure is expected to develop along the stationary front in the NW Gulf today into tonight, and slide quickly northeastward, resulting in fresh to strong N winds and locally rough seas north of the front and low. Winds and seas will diminish late Tue across the NE Gulf after the low shifts inland. Thereafter, the front will move southeastward and farther into the basin, but then stall over the south-central Gulf through mid- week, as another low forms over South Texas. Looking ahead, another cold front will enter the western waters late Thu, reaching from SE Louisiana to near Poza Rica, Mexico Fri morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1036 mb Azores high dominates the Atlantic Basin, and extends weakly southwestward to north of the Caribbean. This pattern is producing moderate to fresh trade winds across all but the NW portions of the Caribbean, except for strong winds off of Colombia. Low level trade wind convergence along with modest upper level divergence is supporting scattered showers and a few thunderstorms off Panama and Nicaragua. Seas are 4 to 6 ft east of 80W. Gentle to moderate NE breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, High pressure centered northeast of the Caribbean will support moderate to fresh trade winds across most of the basin through the forecast period. Winds and seas will lessen a bit on Tue into Wed as the high pressure departs eastward, before another ridge build across the western Atlantic soon thereafter. A broad surface trough is approaching the eastern Caribbean and will continue westward over the next few days. Moderate to rough seas, in NE swell, will persist across the NE Caribbean passages through the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on Significant Seas in the Central Atlantic. A cold front is stalling across the waters off NE Florida, from 30N80W to just north of Cape Canaveral, where a few showers and thunderstorms are evident along of the boundary. Farther east, a surface trough is analyzed along 67W, north of 25N. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted east of the trough to 62W and north of 26N. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 6-8 ft are occurring west of 74W and north of 26N and also south of 24N and east of 74W. As discussed in the Special Features section, a surface trough extends along 60W from 11N to 25N, moving west at 15. Aside from the winds and seas described in the Special Features section, moderate to fresh breezes and 5 to 7 ft seas prevail across the tropical Atlantic waters of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, the stalled cold front off NE Florida is expected to stall today, before lifting northward tonight. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas north of 28N and west of 74W tonight and Tue as low pressure moves from the northern Gulf of America northeastward to the Carolinas. These southerly winds will shift SW Tue night into Wed, north of 28N ahead of a cold front moving off the northeast Florida coast Tue night. This front will reach from near Bermuda to South Florida on Wed, and from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Thu. Meanwhile, strong winds and rough seas will prevail northeast through east of a trough currently along 60W that will move westward into the waters N of the Leeward Islands tonight through Tue. The trough will then pass just N of Puerto Rico on Wed.