Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Sep 3 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1025 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 31W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms are evident from 06N to 15N and between 21W and 38W. Environmental conditions remain conducive for gradual development of this system during the next several days, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend. There is a low chance of formation within the next 2 days, and a high chance within the next 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. A central Atlantic tropical wave is near 56W from 21N southward, and moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 60 nm of 12N60W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 17N16W and continues to 14N27W and to 09N46W. The ITCZ extends from 09N46W to 10N56W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 13N and east of 20W. Similar convection is observed from 05N to 14N and between 38W and 57W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary frontal boundary over the north-central Gulf waters continues to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms, especially over the eastern Gulf. A weak high pressure regime persists across the basin, sustaining light to gentle winds and slight seas. However, mariners can expect strongest winds and higher seas near the strongest storms. For the forecast, the front will gradually weaken today, becoming a frontal trough and likely persisting over the east-central Gulf through Fri. This system will continue to generate scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms, mainly across the northern half of the basin. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient in place will maintain gentle to moderate winds with slight to locally moderate seas through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front north of Cuba continues to support scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms that are also affecting the NW Caribbean waters north of 20N. Similar convection is present in the SW Caribbean. A subtropical ridge north of the islands supports moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across much of the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds along with moderate seas across much of the central Caribbean through Sat. Fresh to locally strong winds are expected to pulse at night off Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela through Fri night. In addition, moderate to locally fresh E winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail in the Gulf of Honduras through Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from a 1009 mb low pressure near 31N75W to the NW Bahamas and south Florida. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting the waters east of the front to 69W and north of Cuba and the Bahamas. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds and moderate seas are found north of 25N and east of the front to 70W. Farther east, a surface trough along 56W and NE of the Leeward Islands is interacting with an upper level low supporting scattered showers. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge centered south of the Azores. This ridge sustains moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas over much of the tropical Atlantic. However, a tighter pressure gradient in the far eastern Atlantic allows for fresh to strong N-NE winds and rough seas east of 20W and north of 18N. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front will persist from the NW Atlantic to the NW Bahamas and south Florida through at least Fri. The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the front supports fresh to locally strong southerly winds north of 25N and between 70W and 75W. These winds will persist through late today. Unsettled weather conditions will continue ahead of the front over the next few days. Stronger winds and higher seas are likely near the strongest storms. Elsewhere, the Atlantic ridge will continue to dominate the weather pattern across the forecast waters, supporting gentle to moderate winds and mostly moderate seas..