Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sun Dec 21 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Swell Event in the Central and Eastern Atlantic: Large north to northeast swell is generating rough to very rough seas of 12 to 14 ft in the central and eastern Atlantic from 18N to 22N between 24W and 44W. These seas will persist through early tonight before gradually subsiding below 12 ft late tonight. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information this event. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic along the coastal border of Sierra Leone and Liberia and extends southwestward to near 07N17W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N21W to 05N30W to 04N40W and to near 02N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 26W-30W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 32W-38W and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 18W-24W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weakening stationary front extends from the Straits of Florida westward to near 24N85W. Isolated showers are possible near the front. Otherwise, a broad surface ridge is supporting mostly gentle winds along with 2 to 4 ft seas for the entire Gulf. For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will prevail over much of the Gulf this weekend. Locally fresh E to NE winds are expected in the eastern Bay of Campeche and over the Campeche Bank each afternoon and night Sun into next week, as a trough develops over the Yucatan Peninsula and propagates westward. Looking ahead, fresh east winds and moderate seas will develop over the central and eastern Gulf on Mon as a cold front moves off the coast of the southeastern United States and progresses over the northwestern tropical Atlantic. Strong E winds and rough seas may develop through the Florida Straits Mon into early Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is analyzed along the coast of Nicaragua extending southward to southern Costa Rica. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the trough from 13N to 16N. Similar activity is over the eastern portions of Honduras and Nicaragua. Fresh to strong trade winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are evident in the south-central and part of the southwestern basin. Moderate to fresh easterly trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are dominate the north- central basin. Gentle to moderate trade winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NE winds and rough seas will occur offshore of northern Colombia through at least the middle of next week as low pressure remains over northern Colombia. Moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds and moderate seas will prevail over much of the Caribbean this weekend. Over the Atlantic waters, rough seas in east well will continue this weekend before diminishing on Mon. Elsewhere, fresh to occasionally strong NE winds will pulse through the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola and in the lee of Cuba each night and morning Sun through next week. Looking ahead, widespread fresh to locally strong northeast NE winds will develop over the central and western Caribbean early next week as a cold front stalls over the northwestern tropical Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is analyzed from near 31N64W to 27N71W, where it becomes a stationary front to the Straits of Florida. Isolated weak showers are possible within 180 nm southeast of the front. To its east, a trough extends from near 31N54W southwestward to weak low pressure near 29N55W 1017 mb. A trough extends from the low to near 25N60W. Isolated showers are possible mainly north of 29N between 50W and 55W, and also north of 25N between 43W and 50W. A dissipating frontal boundary extends from northwestern Africa to 24N20W and northwestward to near 31N36W. Areas of light to moderate rain, with embedded isolated showers are noted from 20N to 25N between 22W and 34W. Please refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Gentle to moderate mostly northeast to east and to southeast winds and seas of 5 to 8 ft in moderate to large northeasterly swell dominate north of 20N and west of 55W. Farther east north of 20N between 55W and 35W outside the area mentioned in the Special Features section, moderate to fresh with locally strong east to southeast winds and 8 to 11 ft seas are noted. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds and seas at 7 to 10 ft are present. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate with locally fresh southeast to south winds and 6 to 8 ft seas continue. For the forecast W of 55W, rough seas in northeast swell in the central Atlantic, east of 65W, will slowly subside through this evening. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh trade winds will prevail south of 22N this weekend. Widespread strong to locally near-gale force NE winds and rough seas are expected over the northwest tropical Atlantic by early Mon, as a strong cold front moves off the coast of the southeastern United States. The front will rapidly progress eastward through midweek, supporting expanding strong to near- gale force winds and rough seas into the central basin. Very rough seas in excess of 12 ft will be possible east of 75W Tue through midweek. Looking ahead, strong winds and rough seas may be reinforced in the central waters east of 75W by the middle of the upcoming week as a new cold front moves through the region.