Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon Oct 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1751 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Southwestern Gulf of America (AL92): A trough of low pressure over the southwestern Gulf of America is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Although environmental conditions appear to be marginally conducive, gradual development is becoming more likely, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the middle portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next couple of days, before it turns northward. It is too early to determine the specific impacts to the northern Gulf Coast, but interests there should closely monitor the progress of this system. Formation chance through 48 hours is medium. Formation chance through 7 days is high. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 58W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 17N between 56W and 61W. A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean with axis along 84.5W, south of 21N, moving westward at around 15 kt. A few showers associated with the wave are over the SW Caribbean. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W and continues southwestward to 08N41W. The ITCZ extends from 08N41W to 11N55W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 08.5N to 19N and east of 34W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above for more information on AL92. A frontal boundary extends from Biloxi, Mississippi to SE Louisiana to Port Mansfield, Texas. A trough extends from northern Florida to SE Louisiana coastal waters to 19.5N94.5W, which is generating numerous showers and scattered thunderstorms west of 90.5W. Similar convective activity is over the NE Gulf coastal waters. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds are behind the front over the NW Gulf coastal waters, while fresh to strong winds are west of the trough. Seas within these winds are 4 to 6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere over the central and SE Gulf along with 2 to 4 ft seas. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N winds will follow a trough along the E Mexican offshores through Tue. Weak surface ridging over the NE Gulf will slowly shift eastward through late Tue ahead of a front stalling over the northern Gulf today through Wed before it starts to weaken Wed night. Fresh NE to E winds and building seas are forecast N of the front. Looking ahead, gradual development of a trough in the southwestern Gulf is becoming more likely, and a a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle or latter portion of the week. This system is expected to drift eastward over the next few days, before it turns northward. Regardless of development, fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas are forecast over portions of Gulf Wed through Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... An inverted trough over the central Caribbean continue to support isolated showers and thunderstorms in the Windward Passage, the lee side of E Cuba adjacent waters and the SW basin. Surface high pressure over the central subtropical Atlantic continue to support moderate to fresh trades over the central Caribbean, except for locally fresh winds north of Colombia. Moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere. Seas within the locally strong winds are moderate to 7 ft, while slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, weak ridging over the western Atlantic will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the northwest and central Caribbean through Tue morning, except offshore Colombia and the Gulf of Venezuela where fresh winds will likely pulse to strong speeds at night through tonight. Afterward, a cold front will move across the waters N of the region, further weakening the pressure gradient and supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds across the basin through Thu. High pressure is forecast to develop to the SE of Bermuda Thu night, which will drift westward through Fri evening before dissipating. This will increase the easterly winds over the central Caribbean to fresh speed Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorm prevail over the southern Bahamas and adjacent waters, including the Great Bahama Bank. The remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters is dominated by surface ridging anchored by high pressure north of the Azores, which is supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Otherwise, the remnants of a front are analyzed as a surface trough that extends from 31N33W to 27N35.5W to 27N46W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are present along the trough, with the strongest convection depicted north of 26.5N between 30W and 37W. For the forecast west of 55W, weak ridging over the western Atlantic will continue to shift eastward through today ahead of a cold front that will stall from Bermuda to NE Florida Tue night into Wed. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will follow the front, but remain off NE Florida through Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas will persist elsewhere through Fri. Otherwise, by Fri evening, high pressure developing SE of Bermuda and shifting westward will increase trades S of 22N to moderate to fresh speeds.