Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Apr 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and continues south-southwestward to 04N20W and then to 01S31W, where overnight scatterometer satellite data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to 03N42W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm southeast of the trough between 16W-20W, within 180 nm north of the trough between 31W-35W and within 60 nm south of the trough between 29W-34W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Relatively weak high pressure is over the eastern and central Gulf. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and low pressure in central Mexico is allowing for moderate to fresh southeast winds over most of the western Gulf. Seas are 4 to 6 ft over the NW Gulf per recent satellite altimeter data passes and buoy observations. Farther south, the diurnal Yucatan Peninsula trough has pushed into the eastern Bay of Campeche, where its related gradient is bringing fresh east to southeast winds over that part of the Bay of Campeche. Light to gentle Southeast to south winds are elsewhere across the basin along with seas of 3 to 5 ft, with the exception of lower seas of 1 to 3 ft over the far eastern Gulf. Areas of smoke due to agricultural and forest fires in southern Mexico are limiting visibility to 3 to 5 miles over the far western Gulf and along the coast in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the weak high pressure over the eastern and central Gulf will generally maintain gentle to moderate southeast to south winds across the basin, except for light to gentle variable winds over the NE Gulf through Fri. Moderate seas will be over the western Gulf while mostly slight seas will be elsewhere through Fri. A diurnal trough will pulse fresh to strong winds off the Yucatan Peninsula during the evenings and at night through Fri. A weak cold front will move into the far northern Gulf Thu and begin to stall Thu night into Fri, perhaps over waters further south. A strong late-season cold front will emerge off the Texas coast late Fri night, then reach from northern Florida to the Bay of Campeche by late on Sat, and from central Florida to the Yucatan peninsula on Sun. The front will be followed by fresh to strong north to northeast winds, with winds reaching gale-force offshore Tampico and Veracruz on Sat. Seas are forecast to build to around 12 ft, but possibly higher over waters affected by the gale conditions before subsiding Sun and Sun night. Scattered showers and thunderstorms, some possibly strong, are expected to precede the front. Mariners should stay up to date with the latest forecast. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The interaction between high pressure over the western Atlantic and relatively lower pressure in northern South America is sustaining fresh to locally strong trades off northeast Colombia and northwest Venezuela, where seas are 5 to 6 ft. An overnight scatterometer satellite data pass shows fresh northeast winds in the Windward Passage. Fresh east winds are in the Gulf of Honduras as noted in an overnight scatterometer satellite data pass. Gentle to moderate northeast to east winds remain elsewhere across the basin along seas of 3 to 5 ft, except for lower seas of 1-3 ft over the northwestern Caribbean north of 18N west of 80W. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian low will support moderate to fresh trades over the eastern and central Caribbean through Sun, reaching locally strong at times. In the Gulf of Honduras, moderate to fresh east winds and moderate seas are expected through Fri, then increasing to fresh to strong speeds through Sat night and diminishing on Sun. A Gulf of America weakening cold front will approach the Yucatan Channel Sun and Sun night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N58W to near 26N69W, where it transitions to a stationary front to the central Bahamas. A pre- frontal trough is analyzed from 26N61W to 22N66W. A broad mid to upper-level trough has shifted to the east of these features as seen in water vapor imagery. It is sustaining an area of moderate rain with embedded numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms north of 27N between 44W and 49W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 24N to 27N between 44W and 50W. Overnight scatterometer satellite data passes reveal moderate to fresh west to northwest winds behind the front to near 68W and north of 29N. Seas with these winds are 7 to 9 in northwest swell. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are noted elsewhere west of 55W. Over the eastern part of the area, a cold front is analyzed from near 31N27W to 23N35W. Behind it, another cold front extends from 31N33W to near 29N40W. Moderate northwest winds are north of 27N between the first front and 34W. Moderate winds are elsewhere within 120 nm north of the first front. Seas with these winds are about 5 to 7 ft as noted by several Sofar Spotter observations. For the remainder of the basin, the overnight satellite scatterometer data passes reveal moderate to fresh trades south of 20N between 34W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate north to northeast winds south of 20N east of 34W, and light to gentle anticyclonic winds north of 20N east of 46W. Seas are 5 to 6 ft in these areas as noted by overnight altimeter satellite data passes. For the forecast west of 55W, the cold front that extends from 31N58W to near 26N69W will shift E of 55W late this afternoon. Another cold front is expected to move offshore northeast Florida on Thu, and weaken as it moves across the northern portions of the area through Fri afternoon before it shifts E of 55W Sat evening. A third cold front will move off the northeast Florida coast on Sat, and reach from near 31N74W to near Vero Beach, Florida early on Sun and stall into Sun night. Low pressure is expected to ride up along the front at that time.