Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sun Aug 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Rainfall: Disorganized showers and thunderstorm continue in association with the remnants of Tropical Storm Dolly, located about 300 miles east of the Leeward Islands. However, there are no signs that the system is developing a closed circulation. Redevelopment of this system is unlikely while it moves westward to west-northwestward near 25 mph. The wave could bring locally heavy rains and gusty winds to portions of the Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico over the next several days. The main hazards for Puerto Rico will be urban flooding, lightning, and gusty winds, especially tonight into Monday. The potential for isolated flash flooding is lower but cannot be ruled out. Rainfall amounts and the location of the highest totals remain uncertain. Islands local topography could enhance orographic lift and support additional rainfall, varying by island. Peak rainfall rates are expected from tonight through Sun. Please, refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 34W, south of 18N, moving westward at around 15 kt. No significant convection is noted near this wave. A tropical wave is along 58W, south of 21N, moving westward around 20 kt. A 1009 mb low pressure, remnants of T.S. Dolly, is along the wave axis near 17N58W. A cluster of moderate to isolated strong convection is within about 90 nm NW quadrant of low center. Fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas are noted on either side of the wave axis per scatterometer and altimeter data, covering roughly the waters from 16N to 22N between 50W and 60W. A tropical wave is along 70W and extends from Dominican Republic to western Venezuela, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are near the wave axis, affecting Dominican Republic and the southern offshore waters. A tropical wave is over the western Caribbean, along 83W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. The wave appears to enhance convection over parts of Central America. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Mauritania near 18N16W, and extends SW to near 10N24W, and westward to near 07N40W. The ITCZ continues from 07N40W to 11N53W. In addition to the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is present near the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak 1014 mb low pressure is analyzed over the NE Gulf near 29N87W. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are over Florida and the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are noted elsewehre over the Gulf waters. A diffluent pattern aloft supports this convective activity. A weak ridge dominates the remainder of the basin. Under this pattern, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. For the forecast, cloudiness and showers associated with a weak low pressure area centered about 125 miles south of Pensacola, Florida, have become a little better organized since yesterday. Some additional slow development of this system is possible during the next few days as it drifts westward. Currently, this system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. Regardless of development, mariners over the northeast and north-central Gulf can expect thunderstorms with gusty winds and locally higher seas into early next week. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will support mainly light to gentle winds and slight seas into into late next week. Winds will pulse to fresh with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for rainfall information associated to a strong tropical wave that will cross the northern Leeward Islands tonight. High pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low supports fresh to strong trades offshore Colombia where seas are 7 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are found in the north-central and eastern Caribbean, and also in the Windward Passage. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Convection has fakred-up over most of Cuba and Jamaica while a tropical wave is enhancing convection over Dominican Republic. Showers and thunderstorms ahead of the remnant of Dolly are reaching the northern Leeward Islands. For the forecast, a strong tropical wave will cross the northern Leeward Islands tonight, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sun and Sun night, then Hispaniola Mon. This wave will bring strong to near gale force winds, rough seas, and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall to nearby waters. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and lower pressure over South America will support strong trades and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean this weekend. These winds will diminish slightly early next week as the aforementioned tropical wave disrupts the pressure gradient. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for information about a strong tropical wave, remnants of Dolly, that is approaching the Lesser Antilles. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring between Bermuda and the Bahamas, particularly N of 24N and W of 68W. A diffluent pattern aloft is helping to induce this convective activity. A ridge dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters, anchored on a 1026 mb high pressure located SW of the Azores near 35N33W. Another high pressure center of 1026 mb is noted NE of Bermuda near 35N54W. Aside from the winds and seas associated with the remnants of Dolly, fresh to locally strong northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are evident N of 20N and E of 20N to the coast of W Africa, including the Canary Islands. Elsewhere, the ridge generally supports moderate to locally fresh winds easterly winds and moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a strong tropical wave will cross the northern Leeward Islands tonight, the Virgin Islands and Puerto Rico Sun and Sun night, then Hispaniola Mon. This wave will bring strong to near gale force winds, rough seas, and thunderstorms with locally heavy rainfall to nearby waters S of 23N. Elsewhere, abundant tropical moisture and a deep-layer trough will aide in scattered thunderstorms W of 70W into early next week. To the east, the subtropical ridge will dominate, supporting mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. Winds will pulse to locally strong off northern Hispaniola through Sun night.