Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Dec 13 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warnings: MeteoFrance has issued Gale Warnings for their MADEIRA and CANARIAS Marine Zones. For Madeira, the warning is valid through 13/12Z at least, and for Canarias, the warning is valid from 12/15Z to 13/12Z at least. Please visit website: wwmiws.wmo.int/ index.php/metareas/display/2 for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W and extends to 06N19W. The ITCZ continues from 06N19W to 03N33W to 04N40W to 03N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 08N between the coast of Africa and 16W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 20W and 45W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure prevails over the Gulf waters. Moderate southerly winds prevail over the waters W of 90W. Gentle to moderate winds are over the SE Gulf, and light to gentle winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-3 ft range. For the forecast, weak high pressure located over north Florida will slide eastward and into the Atlantic through Sat to produce moderate to occasionally fresh E to SE winds across the S and W Gulf. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are expected over the remainder of the basin through Sat. The next cold front is expected to enter the northern Gulf on Sun morning, bringing increasing winds and building seas behind the front. The front is expected to reach the south-central Gulf along 24N/25N by Mon morning, and move south of the basin Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough extends over the NW Caribbean, with scattered moderate convection in its vicinity. Fresh to strong winds prevail over the south central Caribbean, where seas are in the 7-10 ft range. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 6-7 ft, are elsewhere E of 80W. Moderate winds, and seas of 4-5 ft prevail W of 80W. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds, and moderate to rough seas are expected over the central Caribbean through Sun morning due to the pressure gradient between the Colombian low and the Atlantic ridge. Winds will pulse to near gale-force at night offshore of northern Colombia. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough seas in large E swell will prevail over the Atlantic waters and through the passages and into the eastern part of the basin through Mon. A cold front will enter the northwestern Caribbean early Mon, accompanied by increasing winds and building seas behind the front. This front is expected to reach from central Cuba to N Belize Tue evening then begin to stall and weaken. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more information about the Gale warning in effect over the Eastern Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N59W across the SE Bahamas to the coast of eastern Cuba. Fresh to strong SW winds are noted ahead of the front, generally north of 30N to 50W. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-6 ft, prevail W of the front. Seas of 8-9 ft are found N of 29N between 52W and 70W. Farther east, a cold front extends from 31N10W to 24N24W to 25N35W. Aside from the area of gale force winds discussed above, fresh to near- gale force winds, and seas of 10-17 ft, prevail N of the front. Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 7-10 ft, prevail elsewhere S of 24N. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 6-8 ft, are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the front is forecast to become stationary tonight into Sat, then lift northward while dissipating. Large NW swell is expected north of 27N behind the front through Sat morning. The next cold front is forecast to move off the coast of the southeastern United States on Sun, with increasing winds and quickly building seas expected behind the front. The front is forecast to reach from just E of Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Mon morning, and from 29N55W to the SE Bahamas and central Cuba Tue morning.