Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Nov 15 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 13N17W and continues southwestward to 10N20W. The ITCZ extends from 10N20W to 09N36W, where it is broken by cyclonic surface winds around a pair of surface lows to the north. The ITCZ resumes at 09N46W and extends westward to near 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 00N to 14N between 24W and 38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1021 mb high pressure is centered over the Florida Panhandle near 31N87W. The gradient between this high and lower pressure in the Caribbean is leading to moderate NE to E winds in the Yucatan Channel. Elsewhere, light to gentle anticyclonic flow dominates. Seas are 1 to 3 ft, except 3 to 5 ft in the Yucatan Channel. For the forecast, moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds will dominate the basin as high pressure moves from Florida toward the central basin this weekend. The ridge will slide a bit east for the start of next week, allowing southeasterly winds to become dominant, with speeds gradually increasing, reaching fresh speeds across the western Gulf by the middle of next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate convection is association with a stationary surface trough that paralletls the coasts of Honduras and Nicaragua as well as the eastern extension of the Pacific monsoon trough is impacting waters within about 120 nm of the coast of Central America. Fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are ongoing offshore central Colombia. Fresh NE winds are also occurring offshore central Cuba. Mainly gentle trades dominate elsewhere. Moderate seas are present throughout the basin, with the highest seas in the western Caribbean. For the forecast, the surface trough will meander offshore Honduras and Nicaragua today, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Fresh NE to E winds S of Cuba and offshore Colombia will diminish by tonight as a weak pressure gradient takes hold over the basin. This will result in an extended period of mainly gentle to moderate trade winds over area waters for the first half of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Low pressure of 1012 mb centered near 12N38W is inducing a broad area of scattered moderate convection from 14N to 20N between 28W and 38W. Scattered moderate convection is also noted within 60 nm of a surface trough that extends from 30N46W to 22N70W. Farther north and west, a cold front is noted from 31N53W to the SE Bahamas. NW of this front, gentle to moderate N winds dominate, with seas of 4 to 7 ft. To the east of the front, broad ridging regulates the overall wind flow, with anticyclonic winds focused around a 1018 mb high pressure centered near 25N35W. Across the deep tropics S of 18N, mainly moderate trades prevail. Seas through most waters ahead of the cold front are 5 to 8 ft, although rough seas in N swell currently affect waters N of 28N. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will stall by tonight from near 23N55W to N of Hispaniola, where it will gradually dissipate Sun into Mon. Expect fresh to strong SW to W winds and building seas across the waters N of 29N Sun, ahead of a cold front forecast to reach the N part of the forecast region Mon. Rough seas, in mainly northerly swell, will periodically impact waters N of 28N through early next week.