Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Nov 21 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0418 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W, then runs southwestward to 09N24W. An ITCZ continues westward from 09N24W to 09N53W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring near and south of the monsoon trough and part of the ITCZ north of 03.5N east of 24W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered moderate convection across the Caribbean waters near Nicaragua, Costa Rica, and Panama. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough is causing isolated showers over the NW Gulf. Otherwise, a surface ridge related to a 1019 mb high just west of Spring Hill, FL continues to dominate the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and 1-2 ft seas are found at the northeastern Gulf. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds and seas at 3-5 ft are present off the southern Texas and northeastern Mexico. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh ESE winds and 2-5 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds will pulse offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each afternoon and evening into next week as a trough develops each day and moves westward. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas are expected over much of the Gulf through Fri as ridging prevails over the southeastern United States. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong SE winds will develop in the northwestern Gulf Sun into next week as a low pressure system moves through the southern United States. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is producing isolated showers near and south of Hispaniola. Convergent trade winds are coupling with divergent flow aloft to generate scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over Trinidad and Tobago, and near the southern Windward Islands. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas at 4-8 ft are found across the western basin, including the Gulf of Honduras. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to E winds and 3-6 ft seas are noted in the central and eastern basin. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trade winds will occur over the basin into next week as low pressure anchors over the south- central Caribbean and high pressure prevails north of the region. Pulsing strong winds and locally rough seas are expected offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning this weekend into next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front curves southwestward from a 1013 mb low near 33N54W across 31N54W to 28N68W. A surface trough is ahead of the stationary front and extends from 31N50W to 22N52W. Scattered moderate convection is evident along these features particularly, north of 26N between 58W and 62W, and north of 22N between 46W and 54W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section at the beginning for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Gentle to locally moderate NW to NE winds and seas at 3-6 ft are found north of 20N between 50W and the Florida-Georgia coast. To the east, moderate to fresh NE to SE winds and seas of 8-10 ft dominate north of 26N between 35W and 50W. For the tropical Atlantic from 05N-20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate E trades and 5-7 ft seas are found. For the Atlantic Basin east of 35W, a 1015 mb low at 28N25W with an associated cold front extending to its southwest is producing fresh to strong NE winds north of 28N between 22W-35W with seas 8-14 ft. Elsewhere east of 35W, winds are moderate or lighter with seas 4-7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NE winds will occur north of the Greater Antilles and through the southern and central Bahamas into early Sat as high pressure prevails to the north and low pressure anchors over the south-central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh SW to W winds are expected north of 29N and west of 65W, including offshore of northern Florida by Sat as a cold front moves off the east coast of the U.S. The front is forecast to enter the northern waters on Sun, leading to mostly moderate N to NE winds and building seas in the wake of the front.