Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Jan 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the Agadir marine zone near the Canary Islands until 07/09 UTC . For more information, please visit Meteo-France's website at: wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near the coastal border of Guinea-Bissau and Sierra Leone, then reaches southwestward to 04N19W. An ITCZ continues westward from 04N19W across 05N35W to northeast of French Guiana at 06N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted south of the monsoon trough from 03N to 05N between 10W and 17W, and also near and up to 80 nm north of the ITCZ between 30W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A diurnal surface trough is causing scattered showers at the eastern Bay of Campeche. Otherwise, a 1017 mb high at the central Gulf along with a 1018 mb high off southwestern Florida are dominating the Gulf much of the Gulf. Gentle to moderate NE to SE winds with seas of 2 to 4 ft are present at the eastern Bay of Campeche, and offshore of Tampico and the Yucatan Peninsula. Light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, widespread fresh S to SE winds and moderate seas are expected to develop west of 90W by Wed night as the pressure gradient increases between ridging over the eastern Gulf and a developing storm system in the central United States. Strong winds will pulse offshore of south Texas and northeastern Mexico on Thu, and locally rough seas may accompany these winds. Moderate to fresh SE winds will expand eastward over much of the Gulf on Thu, with these winds continuing through Fri. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the northwestern Gulf early this weekend. Widespread fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are expected in the wake of the front as it sweeps over the Gulf into early next week. Gale force winds will be possible offshore of Tampico and Veracruz, Mexico Sat through Sun night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A persistent surface trough is triggering scattered showers south of the Yucatan Channel, and in the Gulf of Honduras. Widely scattered showers are found farther east at the lee of Cuba and near Jamaica. The dissipating tail-end of a cold front runs southwestward from the northern Leeward Islands to the south- central basin. Patchy showers are noted across the eastern Basin. Fresh to locally strong NE to ENE winds with seas at 5 to 7 ft dominate the south-central basin, while moderate to fresh E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft exist at the north-central Gulf. Gentle with locally moderate NE to ESE winds and 1 to 3 ft seas dominate elsewhere in the basin. For the forecast, strong to occasionally near-gale force NE to E winds will pulse offshore of northern Colombia through this weekend as low pressure prevails over the region. Rough seas will occur near and to the west of these winds. Strong winds are also expected each afternoon and evening in the Gulf of Venezuela starting on Thu. Fresh NE to E winds will occur over the central Caribbean tonight, including through the Windward Passage, with widespread fresh winds developing over much of the basin by Thu night as the pressure gradient increases between the Colombian low and high pressure to the north. Pulsing strong winds are expected through the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola nightly starting on Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section at the beginning for a Meteo-France Gale Warning. A cold front extends southwestward from the north-central Atlantic across 31N45W to 24N53W, then becomes a warm front to a 1010 mb low near 22N58W. A weak cold front runs southwestward from this low to the central Leeward Islands. Scattered moderate convection is occurring up to 80 nm along either side of the first cold/warm front. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen near the low and second cold front from 18N to 22N between 56W and 61W. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the Atlantic Basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 6 to 9 ft are found near the aforementioned frontal boundaries, north of 20N between 50W and 60W. To the west, gentle to moderate E to SE to SSW winds and 3 to 6 ft seas in moderate N swell exist north of 20N and west of 60W. For the central Atlantic north of 20N between 35W and 50W, moderate to fresh SE to S winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft are evident. For the tropical Atlantic from 03N to 20N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, gentle to moderate with locally fresh ENE to SE winds with 4 to 7 ft seas in moderate NE swell are present. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, light to gentle with locally moderate E to SE winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh NE winds and rough seas occurring east of 65W will slowly diminish through Wed morning. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh SW winds will occur north of 29N and west of 70W through Wed as a surface trough develops to the north and moves eastward. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are then expected over the northwest tropical Atlantic on Thu as a weak pressure gradient develops. Looking ahead, high pressure building off the coast of the eastern United States on Fri will support moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and building seas over the region through this weekend.