Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Mar 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0355 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Liberia near 06N11W and continues southwestward to 00N23W. The ITCZ extends from 00N23W to 03N43W. Scattered moderate convection is south of 06N and east of 29W. GULF OF AMERICA... A broad subtropical ridge over the eastern Gulf waters supports fresh easterly winds and moderate seas off northern Yucatan. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Dry weather conditions dominate the basin. For the forecast, high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will maintain gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas across the western Gulf, and light to gentle breezes over the eastern Gulf into late week. A trough over the Bay of Campeche will support occasional moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula mainly at night through mid-week. CARIBBEAN SEA... A weak surface trough in the central Caribbean supports a few showers southeast of Jamaica. A subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean sustains fresh to strong NE-E winds and seas of 4-7 ft across the north-central Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and also in the lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, building high pressure over the western Atlantic will support fresh to locally strong NE winds south of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola into Mon night. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will develop offshore Colombia Tue through Fri, mainly at night, as the high pressure moves slightly eastward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 1008 mb low pressure near 36N52W to eastern Puerto Rico. Satellite scatterometer data indicates strong to near-gale force SE winds north of 25N and east of the front to 48W. North of 26N and west of the front to 60W, fresh to strong NW winds are evident on satellite scatterometer data. Seas are 8-13 ft north of 21N between 49W and 67W. In the rest of the SW North Atlantic, a subtropical ridge dominates sustaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. In the eastern Atlantic, a weakening 1000 mb low pressure centered west of the Canary Islands forces fresh to strong N-NW winds and rough to very rough seas north of 23N and east of 30W. N-NW swell support rough seas in the eastern Atlantic and central Atlantic trade waters. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, fresh to strong winds and rough seas on either side of the front north of 27N will continue to affect the offshore waters from west to east into early Mon as the front moves slowly eastward. The cold front is forecast to move into the central Atlantic Mon through Tue while gradually dissipating. Looking ahead, a new cold front is forecast to enter the offshore waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda Mon night into Tue, followed by fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas. These marine conditions are forecast to affect most of the waters north of 28N into mid-week before the front lifts northward.