Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Mon Feb 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... W Atlantic Gale Warning: A cold front is expected to enter the W Atlantic tonight. Ahead of the front, SW winds to gale force are expected to develop by 16/03Z as the pressure gradient tightens in the area, mainly N of 30N. Rough seas are expected with these winds. These winds/seas will spread E ahead of the front through 16/18Z. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 09N13W to 04N21W. The ITCZ continues from 04N21W to the coast of Brazil at 03S39W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted E of 33W and S of 07N. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front continues to move eastward across the NE Gulf, analyzed from near 30N85W to 19N96W. A pre-frontal squall line occurring just ahead of the front and into the Florida Big Bend. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong winds in the vicinity of the front mainly E of 90W, while moderate winds are W of 90W. Rough seas prevail with the strongest winds, and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold front will exit to the southeast of the basin Monday afternoon. Fresh to strong winds over the eastern Gulf north of 25N will become moderate to fresh north winds early on Mon as high pressure in the wake of the front begins to slide eastward across the area. Winds will become gentle to moderate along with slight to moderate seas beginning Mon afternoon and continuing into early Tue before southerly moderate to fresh winds develop in the western Gulf. These winds will expand eastward in coverage through Fri as low pressure, with an attendant cold front move through central Texas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A frontal remnant trough extends across Puerto Rico southwestward into the east-central Caribbean along 68W. Fresh NE to E winds prevail N of 15N, where seas are 5-7 ft. Fresh to strong winds continue to pulse near the coast of Colombia to 15N, with seas of 6 to 8 ft. Elsewhere across the basin, 1024 mb high pressure centered between Bermuda and the Bahamas is supporting moderate to fresh E trades and moderate seas, E of 80W, and gentle to moderate SE winds across the NW basin. For the forecast, pulsing strong northeast winds will prevail near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Moderate to rough seas are expected with these winds. Light to gentle winds over the NW Caribbean will strengthen by the end of the week. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning has been issued for portions of the northwest waters for tonight and into early Mon. Please refer to the Special Feature section above for more details. A cold front curves southwestward from the north-central Atlantic through 31N42W to 23N52W, then become stationary to the Virgin Islands and eastern Puerto Rico. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds follow the front to 70W. Anticyclonic winds then become fresh easterly winds N of Hispaniola, then fresh to near gale SE to S winds through the Bahamas and across the waters E of Florida to 72W. This is outside of the Gale Warning area described above. Seas are 6 to 8 ft within these winds, except 4 ft or less in the lee of the central Bahamas. Light to gentle winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail north of the trough due to high pressure in the region. E of the cold front to 35W and N of 26N, fresh S to SW winds prevail, with seas of 7 to 9 ft. E of 35W and N of 10N, fresh to strong trades and rough seas prevail due to an enhanced pressure difference between a 1034 mb high near 36N16W and lower pressures in the deep tropics. Moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas prevail elsewhere S of 20N to the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast west of 55W outside of the Gale Warning area, high pressure over the area will slide eastward through Mon night in response to intensifying low pressure that will track northeastward over southeastern United States. The low will pull a cold front across the waters offshore northern Florida late tonight into Mon. A squall line will precede the front. The front will reach from near 31N75W to the NW Bahamas and to west- central Cuba by early Mon, from near 31N69W to the central Bahamas and to central Cuba Mon night, from near 31N57W to 24N65W and stationary to South Florida Tue. The cold front portion will move E of 55W late Tue while the stationary portion weakens, with frontal remnants lifting back N as a warm front Wed. An expanding areas of fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas will precede the front through Mon. Fresh to strong winds northerly winds and building seas will follow the front into Mon night. Seas are expected to build to around 12 ft in the far northern forecast waters Tue, but shift to the far northeast part of the area Wed before moving E of 55W Wed night. The fresh to strong winds will diminish on Tue. Rough seas will linger elsewhere E of 60W through Thu. Mariners are urged to stay up to date with the latest forecasts.