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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon Nov 10 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1633 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front extending from Naples, Florida to the Bay of Campeche will race southeast today and exit the basin during the afternoon hours. Strong to near gale-force N to NE winds and rough to very rough seas are expected behind the front, with gale force winds and very rough seas offshore of Veracruz this afternoon into tonight. Conditions will improve basin- wide by Tue evening as high pressure settle southward into the region. Western Atlantic Gale Warning: Fresh to strong winds are ahead and behind a strong cold front that extends from near 31N78W to the central Florida Peninsula. Gale conditions will develop tonight offshore NE Florida. As the front moves east, these gales will expand behind the front, mainly N of 29N, through Tue. Elsewhere behind the front, strong to near gale force N winds will dominate through Tue night, along with rough to very rough seas. By late Wed, the front will stall front near 30N55W to the Turks and Caicos, where it will weaken through late week. As a result, winds and seas will slowly diminish. For more information about these warnings, please see the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. Significant Rainfall over Central America: A shearline is expected to form today over the NW Caribbean Sea and Honduras, enhancing moisture convergence across Guatemala, Belize, Honduras, and Nicaragua. The shearline will move south today, and will interact with a surface trough off the coasts of Nicaragua and Costa Rica by Tuesday morning, resulting in enhanced moisture convergence. A cold front will then arrive in Guatemala, Honduras, and Belize on Tuesday morning, after which it will become stationary and linger across the region through Thursday. Significant rainfall over the course of several days will be possible as a result, and will raise concerns for life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. This information was provided by the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center. Please refer to your local meteorological service for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon enters the Atlantic waters near 11N16W and continues southwestward to near 06N27W. The ITCZ then extends from that point to 07N49W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 04N to 15N, west of 30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the Special Features section for additional information on the Gale Warning in the SW Gulf. A strong cold front extends from near Naples, Florida, to the Bay of Campeche. Strong to near gale-force N to NE winds and rough to very rough seas are ongoing behind the front, with gale force winds and very rough seas offshore of Veracruz. Otherwise, scattered moderate convection is ongoing in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the front will race SE and exit the basin by early this afternoon. In its wake, near gale- force N winds and rough to very rough seas will dominate through tonight. Gales will prevail through this evening offshore Veracruz. Conditions will improve basin-wide by Tue evening as high pressure settles into the region for the remainder of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the significant rainfall event expected across Central America and adjacent waters this week. The interaction between the eastern end of the Pacific Monsoon Trough and a surface trough continues to support numerous moderate to scattered strong convection across the offshore waters of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is ongoing over the NW Caribbean waters ahead of an approaching cold front. Otherwise, surface ridging extending across the northern basin continues to tighten the gradient across the eastern and central Caribbean. Thus, fresh trades and moderate seas prevail in these regions, except for strong winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean, offshore Colombia, and the Gulf of Venezuela. For the forecast, locally strong winds and rough seas are expected in the south-central Caribbean into Tue. Rough seas in east swell over the tropical Atlantic waters east of the Lesser Antilles will gradually subside into Tue morning. A strong cold front will enter the NW Caribbean waters this afternoon, bringing strong to near gale force N winds and rough to very rough seas in its wake. The front will stall from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras Tue and gradually weaken through Wed night. Aside from the strong winds and seas, the front will support the development of heavy rainfall and thunderstorms over Central America and adjacent waters through at least Thu. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the W Atlantic beginning tonight. Fresh to strong winds are ahead and behind a strong cold front that extends from near 31N78W to the central Florida Peninsula. Scattered moderate convection is found ahead of the front along a pre-frontal trough that extends from 31N75W to western Bahamas. Another surface trough extends from north of the eastern Bahamas to western Haiti and it is supporting scattered moderate convection along it axis. The remainder of the subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of a broad ridge that is anchored by a 1025 mb high near 32N37W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds dominate the open Atlantic waters S of 26N and E of 70W. Otherwise, long- period NW swell is supporting rough seas to 9 ft over the eastern subtropical and tropical Atlantic as well as portions of the central tropical Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, Gale conditions will develop tonight offshore NE Florida tonight, in the wake of the aforementioned cold front. As the front moves east, these gales will expand behind the front, mainly N of 29N, through Tue. Elsewhere behind the front, strong to near gale force N winds will dominate through Tue night, along with rough to very rough seas. By late Wed, the front will stall front near 30N55W to the Turks and Caicos, where it will weaken through late week. As a result, winds and seas will slowly diminish.