Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon May 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1730 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A far eastern Atlantic tropical wave was introduced near 20W based on an observed maximum in deep layer moisture as noted on the Total Precipitable Water (TPW) imagery from CIMSS and on computer vorticity model guidance. It is moving westward around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm west of the wave from the Equator to 02N. A central Atlantic tropical wave is analyzed from near 12N49W to just inland Brazil near 01S47W. This wave was also inferred from computer vorticity model guidance, and further supported by a maximum in deep layer moisture that trails the wave axis as depicted on the Total Precipitable Water (TPW) imagery from CIMSS. It is moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. This wave is moving through a very stable atmospheric environment. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are within 60 nm east of the wave from the Equator to 02N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 14N17W, and continues southwestward to 07N23N and to the Equator at 27W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 02S32W to 01S38W and to near 02S45W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen south of the ITCZ between 27W-32W. Scattered moderate convection is within 240 nm south of the trough to near 01N between 21W-24W, and within 60 nm north of the ITCZ between 39W-44W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends across the Straits of Florida to just east of the northeast tip of the Yucatan Peninsula while a weak 1018 mb high is centered over the far north-central Gulf just east of southeastern Louisiana. Isolated showers are near some sections of the front. Latest scatterometer and buoy data indicate mostly moderate northeast winds south of 28N east of 87W and south of 25N between 87W and 93W. Light to gentle anticyclonic winds are elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 5 ft across the basin, except for lower seas of 2 to 4 ft over the northern Gulf. For the forecast, the aforementioned stationary front will weaken into tonight then dissipate by Tue. Moderate to fresh southeast to south return flow will set up in the W Gulf Tue night into Thu as high pressure builds into the eastern Gulf. By the end of the week, this high will settle over the entire basin, leading to tranquil conditions for regional waters. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Moderate to fresh trades prevail across the eastern and central Caribbean per latest scatterometer satellite data, except for strong trades in the Gulf of Venezuela as well as offshore Colombia. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. Light and variable winds are over the northwestern part of the sea along with seas of 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the south-central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh trades across the remainder of the eastern and central Caribbean for the rest of this week. The remnants of a frontal boundary will drift across the northwestern Caribbean on Tue. Light and variable winds are over the northwestern part of the sea along with seas of 2 to 4 ft. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N62W southwestward to 28N70W to weak low pressure of 1014 mb near the northern Bahamas, and southwestward to the Straits of Florida. A recent scatterometer satellite data pass indicates fresh to strong northeast winds north of the frontal boundary to near 30N and between 72W and 80W. Seas are 6 to 9 ft with these winds as seen in a recent altimeter satellite data pass. A large area of moderate to heavy rain, with embedded moderate convection is north of 27N between 70W and 74W and northwest of the frontal boundary to 70W. Mostly fresh northeast winds are elsewhere north of the frontal boundary along with seas of 5 to 7 ft. High pressure is over the central Atlantic while a couple of weak troughs are over the eastern Atlantic: One extends from near 30N27W to 21N35W and the other one from 31N35W to a weak 1014 mb low at 28N33W and to near 25N34W. No significant convection is occurring with these features. However, the pressure gradient between these features combined with lower pressures in western Africa is sustaining moderate to fresh northeast winds from 19N to 28N between the west African coast and 22W. Seas are 5 to 6 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 4 to 6 ft seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned stationary front and 1014 mb low pressure will remain nearly stationary into Tue before the low moves eastward and the front transitions into a cold front Tue night and Wed. Fresh to locally strong northeast winds north of the front will slowly diminish through mid-week as the boundary weakens, with quiescent conditions expected Wed and Thu for area waters. A weak cold front may reach our NW waters Thu night and steadily move eastward through the end of the week.