Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sun Sep 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave has its axis near 45W from 06N to 21N, drifting slowly westward. Nearby convection is described below in the Atlantic section. A western Caribbean tropical wave has its axis near 84W to the S of 20N along the coast of Nicaragua to NE Costa Rica, moving westward 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 20N between 78W and 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends off the coast of Africa near 14N16W to 07N35W. The ITCZ extends from 07N35W to 07N45W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 13N53W to 11N61W. Aside from convection noted in the Atlantic section below, scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm south of the monsoon trough between 17W and 35W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak pressure gradient prevails across the area with a 1011 mb low pressure area in the W-central Gulf near 23N94W. An E to W surface trough extends from the Straits of Florida to the low. A few showers and thunderstorms are active along and within 90 nm south of the trough. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are also active over the northeast Gulf, related to divergence aloft near an upper low centered over Florida. Gentle to moderate winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail across the Gulf. For the forecast, weak ridging north of the Gulf will maintain generally gentle to moderate winds across the Gulf through mid week. An upper- low and associated surface low/trough over the central Gulf will contribute to scattered showers and thunderstorms over mostly the eastern Gulf through the early part of the week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A relatively weak pressure pattern is across the basin with surface troughs N of the basin interrupting the typical Azores- Bermuda highs. Moderate to fresh trades and 4-6 ft seas are found across the south-central Caribbean, with gentle to moderate winds and 2-4 ft seas elsewhere. Some convection is occurring near a tropical wave near 84W as described above, and along the south coast of Cuba. For the forecast, a moderate pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian Low will maintain moderate to fresh to trades over the south-central Caribbean for the next several days. A vigorous upper-level low will promote scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over the western Caribbean through the early part of the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... For awareness purposes, newly named Tropical Storm Fay is centered northeast of the discussion waters is well southwest of the Azores near 33.7N 33.1W at 5 AM EDT, moving NE at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Divergence aloft associated with an upper low over west-central Florida is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms across the Bahamas and off northeast Florida, focused in part on a pair of surface troughs over those respective areas. Farther east, another upper trough reaches from an upper low near 28N48W to 25N55W to 29N65W. This upper trough is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms from 20N to 25N between 50W and 60W, focused along a surface trough reaching from 30N60W to 23N50W. In addition, the upper pattern is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms from 20N to 28N between 40W to 45W along a trough from 30N40W to 23N46W. Farther south, scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active within 75 to 150 nm in the northeast quadrant of a 1012 mb surface low centered near 14N53W. Broad ridging covers the eastern Atlantic. Gentle to moderate winds and 3-5 ft seas prevail across the Atlantic discussion area. For the forecast west of 55W, a weak pressure gradient will promote only gentle to moderate winds across forecast waters for the next several days. A vigorous upper-level low and abundant tropical moisture will force scattered showers and thunderstorms for the waters west of 70W through the early part of the week. Meanwhile, Tropical Storm Fay is forecast to eventually approach and move into the discussion waters to near 30N 36W Tue night, but by then as a remnant low.