Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sat Nov 15 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1640 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains inland over Africa. The ITCZ extends from 11N15W to 08N60W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 16N between 20W and 31W. GULF OF AMERICA... 1021 mb high pressure centered over N Florida provides for light to gentle E winds and 1-3 ft seas across the basin, except in the Yucatan Channel where seas are 3-5 ft. For the forecast, moderate or weaker anticyclonic winds will dominate the basin as high pressure moves from Florida toward the central basin this weekend. The ridge will slide a bit east for the start of next week, allowing southeasterly winds to become more dominate, reaching fresh speeds across the western Gulf by the middle of next week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is in the SW Caribbean from the coast of Panama north to 12N between 76W and 82W. This convection is related to a surface trough in the western Caribbean offshore Nicaragua and Honduras and the extension of the East Pacific Monsoon Trough. Fresh winds are reported by satellite scatterometer in the Lee of Cuba, with 3-5 ft seas. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trades and 3-5 ft seas prevail across the basin. For the forecast, a surface trough will meander offshore Honduras and Nicaragua today, bringing showers and thunderstorms. Fresh NE to E winds S of Cuba and offshore Colombia will diminish by tonight as a weak pressure gradient takes hold over the basin. This will result in an extended period of mainly gentle to moderate trade winds across the basin for the first half of next week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N51W to 23N74W. Scattered moderate convection is from 25N to 30N between 50W to 56W, mainly ahead of the front. Satellite scatterometer data indicates moderate or weaker winds near the front. 1013 and 1014 mb low pressures are centered near 12N44W and 12N37W. Scatterometer indicates moderate or weaker winds near these low pressures. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail across the basin. North of 27N, seas exceed 8 ft due to mixed swells generated north of the area. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front will stall by tonight from near 27N55W to N of Hispaniola, where it will gradually dissipate Sun into Mon. Expect fresh to strong SW to W winds and building seas across the waters N of 29N Sun, ahead of a cold front forecast to reach the N part of the forecast region Mon. Rough seas, in mainly northerly swell, will periodically impact waters N of 28N through early next week.