Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Sun Dec 14 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1630 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... West Atlantic Gale Warning: Gale force NW to N winds and rough seas of 12 to 16 ft in N swell are expected over portions of the northwestern tropical Atlantic Sun evening through Mon morning, in the wake of a cold front expected to move off the coast of the southeastern United States early this afternoon. Widespread strong to near-gale force N winds and rough seas in NW to N swell are expected from the Bahamas, northward and west of 50W through Tue morning, then will reach the islands of the northeast Caribbean Tue night. Seas will begin to gradually subside from NW to SE Wed through Wed night. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. East Atlantic Significant Swell Event: Large, long period N to NE swell continues to affect much of the eastern tropical and subtropical Atlantic. Seas 12 ft or greater are currently from 10N to 20N east of 45W and from 10N to 31N east of 30W, with peak seas to 14 ft just SW of the Canary Islands. The swell direction is N to NE at 12-17 sec periods. With persistent fresh to strong NE and trade winds, the area of 12 ft or greater seas will expand westward to near 50W by early Monday. Thereafter, seas will slowly diminish from northeast to southwest early this week. For information east of 35W, please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by MeteoFrance at website: https://wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/affiche/2. For information west of 35W, please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N12W and extends to 05N18W. The ITCZ continues from 05N18W to 02N50W. Scattered moderate convection is from 02N to 12N east of 23W. GULF OF AMERICA... A new cold front is sweeping across the NW and north-central Gulf waters, bringing near-gale force NE winds with frequent gusts to gale force in the near-shore coastal waters behind of the front. Seas are currently 7-10 ft, and increasing, behind the front. Showers and tstorms are along the front. Elsewhere, moderate N to NE winds prevail with 4-7 ft seas. For the forecast, this front is expected to reach the south- central Gulf along 24N by Mon morning, and move south of the basin Mon night. Strong northerly winds and building seas to 8-11 ft will follow the front. High pressure will dominate the Gulf region in the wake of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... As the subtropical Atlantic ridge retreats to the northeast, trades have diminished to moderate to fresh speeds across the eastern and central Caribbean, with 4-7 ft seas except in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia, where seas are 7-9 ft. Seas may be locally higher in Atlantic Passages of the Lesser Antilles due to arriving E swell. A surface trough in the NW Caribbean is producing a few showers and tstorms. Gentle to moderate winds and 2-4 ft seas prevail in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough seas in large E swell will prevail over the tropical Atlantic waters, through the Atlantic passages and into the eastern part of the basin through Mon night. A cold front will enter the northwestern Caribbean on Mon, accompanied by increasing winds and building seas behind the front. This front is expected to reach from central Cuba to N Belize Tue morning, then will begin to stall and gradually dissipate through Wed. High pressure will build into the W Atlantic Wed night through Thu night to bring a return to fresh to strong trades across the central Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for more information on a GALE WARNING for the western Atlantic Ocean, and a SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT in the eastern Atlantic. The stationary front analyzed across the Bahamas dissipated earlier this morning, and a trough is now analyzed from 22N77W to 29N74W. Scattered moderate convection is north of 25N between 70W and 77W. 1030 mb high pressure centered near 30N35W continues to support fresh to strong trades across the basin south of 25N, with 8-11 ft seas across the waters east of 65W, excluding the areas described in the SIGNIFICANT SWELL EVENT SPECIAL FEATURE. In the W Atlantic, E to SE winds are moderate or weaker with 4-7 ft seas. For the forecast, a cold front is forecast to move off the coast of the southeastern United States by midday today, followed by strong to near gale-force northerly winds and quickly building seas through Mon morning. Gale-force winds are expected behind the front this evening through early Mon. The front will reach from just E of Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and into the Straits of Florida by Mon morning, and then stall from 29N55W to the SE Bahamas and central Cuba by Tue morning. Large N swell will build across the regional waters behind the front tonight through Tue before subsiding. Elsewhere, a stationary front from 29N55W through the central Bahamas and across NW Cuba, accompanied by active showers and thunderstorms, will drift northward today and gradually dissipate