Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Mar 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1644 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A strong cold front will move into the waters offshore of NE Florida by Sat morning, reach from Bermuda to West Palm Beach Sat night, and from 31N55W to the Turks and Caicos Islands Sun night before dissipating Tue. Strong to near gale-force NE winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, and rough to very rough seas will follow the front Sat through early Sun. Afterward, winds will gradually diminish in areal coverage through Thu. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07.5N13W and continues southwestward to 02S29W. The ITCZ extends from 02S29W to 02.5S41W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the 03S to 04N between 15W and 42W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1020 mb high pressure centered over the NE Gulf continues to extend a surface ridge across the remaining basin and provides light to gentle variable winds over much of the E Gulf, except for moderate NE to E winds in the Straits of Florida and the Yucatan Channel. Over the western half of the Gulf, low pressure over Texas and northern Mexico tightens the gradient of pressure, and support moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds. Seas are slight to moderate basin-wide. For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist over the northern Gulf through tonight. A trough over the Bay of Campeche will support moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through early next week. The next cold front will move into the northern Gulf early Sat morning, reach the southeast Gulf by Sun morning, and move southeast of the basin late on Sun. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas are expected in the wake of the front over the eastern Gulf Sat night through early Mon. The pressure gradient will remain strong enough to sustain fresh to strong east winds across the southeast Gulf and the Straits of Florida through the middle of the next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong trades in the south-central Caribbean, including within the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 7-9 ft with these winds, mainly offshore the coast of Colombia. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and 4-7 ft seas prevail elsewhere across the basin. Otherwise, moisture inflow from the tropical Pacific continue to fuel scattered showers over the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras as well as the offshore waters of Nicaragua. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas offshore Colombia through early next week. Looking ahead, high pressure will follow a strong cold front moving through the western Atlantic this weekend, supporting fresh to strong NE winds and building seas in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola from Sat night through the early part of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on a GALE WARNING. A 1038 mb high over the north-central Atlantic near 46N32W extends a ridge across the subtropical Atlantic waters. A surface trough slightly weakens the ridge from 30N52W to 22N64W where it is generating scattered showers and tstms that extends between 55W and 61W. Winds over the central and eastern subtropical waters are moderate to locally fresh from the NE to E and seas are mainly moderate. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are also in the Great Bahama Bank while moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will dominate the forecast waters through tonight supporting gentle to moderate easterly winds and moderate seas. A strong cold front will move into the waters offshore of northeast Florida by Sat morning, and reach from 31N60W to SE Florida by Sun morning before dissipating on Mon. Strong winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, and rough to very rough seas will follow the front through Sun morning. Strong high pressure in the wake of the front will cause fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas across most of the forecast region likely through Tue.