Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Apr 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued Gale Warnings for the marine zones of Agadir through 14/12Z and Tarfaya through 14/00Z. The pressure gradient between a 1028 mb high pressure located midway between the Azores and the Madeira Islands and relatively lower pressures in NW Africa supports these gale force winds (Force 8 on the Beaufort Wind Scale) with severe gusts. Scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these winds. Very rough seas, in long period NW swell, are also reaching this area. Please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast product, listed on the website at https://wwmiws.wmo.int. for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coastal border of Senegal and Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W, then continues SW to near 06N20W. The ITCZ extends from 06N20W to NE Brazil near 03S44W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 04N between 22W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure centered over the western Atlantic extends a ridge across Florida into the Gulf region. Under the influence of this system, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas are noted over the SE Gulf, including the Straits of Florida. Similar wind speeds are observed W of the Yucatan peninsula associated with a thermal trough. Moderate to locally fresh E to SE winds and moderate seas are observed elsewhere, except in the far NE Gulf where light to gentle winds and slight seas are occurring. High clouds from the deep convection over eastern Mexico are being carried across the northwestern Gulf by upper- level winds. For the forecast, the ridge will maintain moderate to fresh E to SE winds and mostly moderate seas through Fri. Expect stronger winds to pulse across the SE part of the Gulf, including the Florida Straits, through Tue, and off the Yucatan Peninsula each night through Wed, driven by local effects associated with a thermal trough. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front over the Atlantic that reaches Hispaniola and a pre-frontal trough are helping to induce scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms over Hispaniola, the Mona Passage and Puerto Rico. High pressure over the western Atlantic combined with the Colombian low supports fresh to strong trades over the south- central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas are 8 to 9 ft offshore Colombia. Fresh to strong winds and moderate seas are also noted in the Windward Passage and in the lee of Cuba. Moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and 3 to 6 ft seas prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, high pressure over the western Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will maintain fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas over the south-central Caribbean and near the coast of Colombia today, then mainly fresh winds are expected through Wed night. Fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas will prevail south of Cuba, in the Windward Passage, and south of Hispaniola through the the middle of the week. Winds and seas will diminish across the basin late in the week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special Features section about Gale Warnings off Morocco. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are active along a stationary front that extends from 31N54W to Hispaniola. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are found near and behind the aforementioned frontal boundary, with the exception of moderate to locally fresh E winds and 6 to 7 ft seas off NE and central Florida. High pressure follows the front and extends a ridge across the western Atlantic and Florida into the Gulf of America. E of the front, high pressure of 1028 mb located midway between the Azores and the Madeira Islands dominates the remainder of the Atlantic forecast region. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are noted per scatterometer data N of 10N and S of a line from 30N20W to 25N40W. Seas of 6 to 9 ft are within these winds. Moderate to fresh winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft dominate the remainder of the tropical Atlantic. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned front will dissipate late today but a frontal trough will persist reaching Puerto Rico by this evening. Then, the frontal trough will move westward through Wed while weakening. Fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas will persist west of the front/trough mainly south of 27N through midweek, then diminishing through Fri.