Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Sat Dec 13 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warnings: MeteoFrance has issued Gale Warnings for their MADEIRA and CANARIAS Marine Zones. For Madeira, the warning is valid through 13/21Z, and for Canarias, the warning is valid through 14/00Z. Please visit website: wwmiws.wmo.int/index.php/metareas/display/2 for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N11.5W and extends to 04.5N16W. The ITCZ continues from 04.5N16W to 04N25W to 00N32W to 01N42W to 00N48W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from 02.5N to 08N east of 29W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 34W and 51W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough is analyzed along the coast of Mexico from the western Bay of Campeche to 22.5N98W, and locally fresh E to NE winds noted over the eastern Bay through the Campeche Bank. Scattered showers have developed in recent hours across NW and north-central portions of the Gulf. A 1022 mb high centered over northern Florida extends ridging westward through the Gulf, supporting moderate or weaker winds over much of the basin. Locally fresh E to NE winds, observed on recent scatterometer data, are noted through the Florida Straits as a moderate pressure gradient prevails between the ridge and a surface trough over the northwestern Caribbean. Seas of 1 to 2 ft are observed over the northern and northeastern basin via recent buoy data, with 3 to 4 ft seas noted in the southern and western Gulf. For the forecast, weak high pressure located over north Florida and the adjacent Atlantic will slide northeastward and into the NW Atlantic through Sat night to produce moderate to occasionally fresh E to SE winds across the S and W Gulf. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are expected over the remainder of the basin through Sat. The next cold front is expected to enter the northern Gulf on Sun morning, bringing strong N to NE winds and building seas behind the front. The front is expected to reach the south-central Gulf along 24N by Mon morning, and move south of the basin Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The remnants of an old frontal boundary extend from central Cuba W-SW to the central Yucatan, with scattered showers noted on either side of the trough extending southward into the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate to strong convection is also noted along the monsoon trough across the extreme southwestern basin and is impacting coastal sections of Colombia, Panama and Nicaragua. Widespread fresh to strong trade winds prevail over most of the the Caribbean east of 80W, as a modest pressure gradient prevails between a 1007 mb low over the south- central Caribbean and ridging to the north. Recent scatterometer satellite data show ongoing strong winds in the south-central basin, with winds locally to 30 kt noted in the Gulf of Venezuela. Seas of 8 to 10 ft are occurring in the central and west-central basin to the west of the strongest winds, with 6 to 7 ft seas noted in the eastern Caribbean, and 4 to 6 ft in the northwestern basin. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds and 8 to 11 ft seas, as noted via recent altimeter data, prevail over the tropical Atlantic waters west of 55W and through the eastern Caribbean passages. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds, and moderate to rough seas are expected over the central Caribbean through Sun morning due to the pressure gradient between the Colombian low and a modest western Atlantic ridge. Winds will pulse to near gale-force at night offshore of northern Colombia. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough seas in large E swell will prevail over the Atlantic waters, through the Atlantic passages and into the eastern part of the basin through Mon night. A cold front will enter the northwestern Caribbean Mon, accompanied by increasing winds and building seas behind the front. This front is expected to reach from central Cuba to N Belize Tue evening, then will begin to stall and weaken through Wed. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more information about the Gale warning in effect over the Eastern Atlantic. A stationary front extends from 31N56W through the SE Bahamas and into central Cuba. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and ahead of the cold front, north of 24N between 53W and 73W. Moderate to locally fresh S to SW winds are noted via scatterometer data ahead of the front north of 30N, while gentle to moderate winds prevail to the north of the front. NW swell behind the front is supporting 8 to 10 ft seas north of 28N between 50W and 60W. Farther west, a 1022 mb high centered near 30N77W extends ridging over the northwest tropical Atlantic behind the front. The pressure gradient between this high and the aforementioned stationary front is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds north of the Lesser Antilles and through the Bahamas. Elsewhere, a 1032 mb Azores high is centered near 35N28W. The pressure gradient between it and a cold front extending from 31N10.5W through northwestern Africa to 22N20W to 25N40W is producing strong to gale force winds and 10 to 20 ft seas north of the front. Southwest of this boundary, widespread fresh to strong trade winds and rough seas 8 to 12 ft prevail south of 25N between 30W and the Lesser Antilles. For the forecast, large NW swell will continue north of 27N between 65W and the stationary front through Sat night. The front is forecast to remain stationary this afternoon, then lift northward and dissipate. The next strong cold front is slated to move off the coast of the southeastern United States on Sun, with strong to gale-force winds and quickly building seas expected behind the front through Mon morning. The front is forecast to reach from just E of Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Mon morning, then weaken considerably as it reaches from 30N55W to the SE Bahamas and central Cuba Tue morning. Large N swell will build in across the regional waters behind the front Sun night through Tue morning before subsiding.