Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Thu Nov 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A sharp trough is analyzed this afternoon from 31N66.5W to 1008 mb low pressure near 27N63W, with a stationary front extending from west through the low to east. A large area of fresh to strong NE-E winds are found from 27N to 31N between 55W and 70W with gale force winds across the northern portion of those waters. Associated seas are 8-13 ft. The pressure gradient is expected to continue to support near gale to gale force NE to E winds roughly over the waters N of 29N between 60W and 70W. Gale-force winds may continue across northern portions of this expected broad low pressure into late Sat. Seas are expected to build to 10-15 ft with these winds through Thu as the low pressure drifts east-northeastward. Environmental conditions could support this system gradually acquiring subtropical characteristics through this weekend while it moves slowly eastward over the western and central subtropical Atlantic. By early next week, environmental conditions are forecast to become unfavorable for further development. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/HSFAT2.html Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing over the northwestern Caribbean extends southwestward across northern portions of Central America and into the tropical eastern Pacific. This feature will interact with enhanced low- level moisture and onshore flow south of the monsoon trough over the next several days. This will favor heavy precipitation developing across Central America starting today and lasting through at least Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected across Nicaragua and Costa Rica, with the bulk of precipitation occurring through Thursday. Heavy rainfall may lead to life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your local weather agency and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic from 11N15W to 07N22W. The ITCZ extends from 07N22W to 10N35W to 07N45W to near Trinidad and Tobago and the NE coast of Venezuela at 10N63W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 21W and 44W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front reaches from the SE LA coast and border with Mississippi near 30.5N89.5W to just north of Tampico, Mexico. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds follow the front. Scattered moderate convection is occurring in the far NE Gulf, driven by convergent surface winds in the E Gulf and an old pre-frontal trough near the FL Panhandle. Surface ridging prevails elsewhere across much of the Gulf, supporting gentle to moderate or weaker winds and 2-4 ft seas. For the forecast, a cold front across the NW Gulf will weaken and dissipate tonight. Moderate northwest to north winds prevail west of the front. The next cold front is expected to move across the Gulf waters this weekend. Fresh to strong north winds will develop west of the front and west of 93W on Sun, with moderate north to northeast winds elsewhere behind the front. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Deep-layer troughing across the northwestern Caribbean supports scattered moderate to strong convection from 14N to 22N between 75W and 81W. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between surface ridging in the Atlantic and the 1009 mb low just off NW Colombia supports mainly moderate trades in the SE and NW Caribbean with light to gentle winds across the remainder of the waters. Seas of 1-4 ft are seen across the Caribbean. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the area is supporting moderate trade winds, along with moderate seas, over the central and eastern Caribbean. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are over the western Caribbean. The pressure gradient will further loosen across the area today. This will diminish the moderate trades across the central and eastern Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for information on a Gale Warning in the western Atlantic. A cold front enters the open high seas waters through 31N30W to 25N38W then continues as stationary through 27N47W to 24N55W to the 1008 mb Special Features low near 27N63W to 27N66W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring from 22N to 31N between 50W and 66W. Additional isolated to widely scattered moderate convection occurring farther east along the front from 22N to 28N between 30W and 50W, as well as ahead of the cold front to 19W to the N of 25N. In addition to the winds and seas described in the Special Features section above, moderate to fresh NE winds and 5-8 ft seas prevail across much of the waters N of 25N and the front. Gentle to moderate or weaker trades and 3-6 ft seas prevail elsewhere across the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, a 1008 mb low pressure centered near 26N65W will track slowly east- northeastward during the rest of the week and the weekend. A broad zone of strong to gale- force winds, and rough to very rough seas, peaking near 14 ft, will develop north of the low pressure and expand eastward through Sun, impacting the waters mainly north of about 27N. The gale-force winds will likely be north of 29N through the end of the week. Elsewhere, a weakening cold front will move across the waters between Florida and 75W Fri and Fri night, then dissipate Sat and Sat night.