Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Feb 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale Waring East of 35W: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure of 1034 mb centered about 180 nm south of the Azores and relatively lower pressures to its SE in NW Africa, and with a frontal boundary that is in that same area will support fresh to strong north to northeast winds north of 20N and east of 28N, including the Canary Islands tonight and increasing to near gale-force in the Meteo-France Agadir and Tarfaya marine zone tonight as the high pressure shifts eastward. Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for those same zones valid from 14/12 UTC to at least 15/00 UTC for north or northeast winds at Force 8 with severe gusts. Seas may possibly build to a range of 14 to 18 ft with these winds. There is a persistence or threat of northeast near gale- force winds for marine zones Madeira, Canarias, and Cape Blanc. For more details. please refer to the Meteo-France High Seas Forecast listed on their website: www.meteofrance.com/previsions-meteo-marine/bulletin/grandlarge/metarea2. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough axis enters the Atlantic near 09N13W southwestward to 04N19W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to the Equator at 29W and continues to 01S36W and to near 02N43W. Scattered moderate convection is within 30 nm of the ITCZ between 38W-41W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front meanders northwestward from central Florida to the southeastern Louisiana coast. Satellite imagery depicts a mostly dense fog bank along Florida coast from near Ft Myers to the Big Bend region. The fog reaches out to about 60 nm of the coast. Another fog bank is seen along the LA and SE TX coasts as well. Otherwise, two high centers: one of 1020 mb near 27N92W and the other one of 1019 mb near 26N82.5W are generally continuing to control the weather pattern throughout the area. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes indicate light to gentle anticyclone flow over the basin southwest of the frontal boundary, with the exceptions of the Bay of Campeche, where gentle to moderate east winds are noted. Seas are in the range of 2 to 3 ft across the basin. For the forecast, the present weak pressure pattern will shift to the eastern and central Gulf sections tonight in response to the next cold front to approach from the west. A tightening pressure gradient between lower pressure to west associated with the frontal system and high pressure over the eastern Gulf will lead to southeast to south winds increasing to moderate speeds in the western Gulf tonight, then further to fresh to strong speeds ahead of the approaching cold front. The cold front is forecast to move across the Gulf this weekend. Strong south to southwest winds and rough seas are expected in the North-central and NE Gulf with this front on Sun. The front is forecast to exit to the southeast of the basin by Mon. High pressure will across the area in the wake of the front. The observed fog banks may linger well into the afternoon hours while becoming less dense. Additional widespread fog may develop over sections of the eastern Gulf from the late night hours and into the morning hours through Sun. Mariners should be aware of the potential for lower visibility in the fog areas. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Latest scatterometer satellite data passes depict fresh to strong northeast winds over the waters between 75W and 80W, including the Windward Passage and vicinity waters. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds, with the exception of slightly higher seas of 6 to 8 ft in northeast swell confined to south of 12N between the coast of Colombia and 80W. The scatterometer satellite data passes also show moderate to fresh northeast to east winds elsewhere east of about 84W, except south of 17N between 66W and 70W. Light to gentle northeast winds are west of 84W, and north of 17N between 66W and 70W. Seas of 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere, except for lower seas of 3 to 4 ft in area north of 18N west of 76W, and in the Gulf of Honduras. For the forecast, pulsing strong northeast winds will prevail near the coast of Colombia through the forecast period. Moderate to rough seas are expected with these winds. Strong winds will develop over the Windward Passage and south of the Dominican Republic this weekend as a high pressure center passes N of the area and tightens the pressure gradient. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trades and moderate seas will prevail through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is analyzed from near 31N57W southwestward to 26N70W, and west-northwestward to inland Florida at Palm Beach, Florida. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes show fresh to strong south winds ahead of the front to near 46W and north of 27N. Seas are 8 to 10 ft in northwest swell with these winds. Gentle to moderate west to northwest winds are north of the front west to near 68W and north of 30N. Light to gentle north to northeast winds are elsewhere north of the front. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in northwest to north swell north of the front, except for higher seas of 7 to 9 ft in long-period west to northwest swell east of 68W. A pre-frontal trough extends from near 31N52W to 24N59W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are seen north of 24N between 49W and 56W. To the south, another trough extends from near 23.5N59W southwestward to 20N67W and to inland northern Hispaniola. 2N61W southwestward along the northern Hispaniola coast. A broad upper-level trough is noted on water vapor imagery to be to its northwest. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 21N to 24N between 56W and 66W while isolated showers and thunderstorms are south of 24N between 63W and 68W. Over the far the eastern Atlantic, a weakening cold front extends from far northern Africa southwestward to 27N14W and to near 27N35W. No significant convection is occurring with this front. Fresh to strong north to northeast winds are north of the front. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are present south of the front to near 19N, and also from 16N to 27N between 35W and 40W. Seas over these waters are 8 to 10 ft in mixed swell east of 31W, and in east swell west of 31W. These trades are mostly the result of the pressure difference between strong high pressure of 1034 mb located well north of the area at 35N27.5W and relatively lower pressures to its south in the deep tropics. Gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are elsewhere, with lower seas of 2 to 3 ft in the waters of and near the Bahama Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned cold front that extends from near 31N57W southwestward to 26N70W, and west-northwestward to inland Florida at Palm Beach will shift eastward with high pressure building in the wake of the front. South winds will strengthen offshore north and central Florida on Sun in advance of another cold front that will move off the southeastern U.S. coast on Mon. Fresh to strong northeast winds and building seas are expected in the wake of the front.