Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Nov 22 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 12N16W and continues southwestward to 09N23W. The ITCZ extends from 09N23W to 07N40W and to 08N59W. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 16N and E of 20W, and from 05N to 12N between 26W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure centered over the W Atlantic dominates the Gulf region producing a gentle to moderate SE to S wind flow, with the exception of light to gentle winds over the NE Gulf. Moderate seas prevail across most of the area, except for slight seas over the NE Gulf. For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh E to NE winds are expected each afternoon and evening in the Bay of Campeche and north of the Yucatan Peninsula as a diurnal trough develops and moves westward over the region. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through much of this weekend. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong SE winds are expected to develop offshore of Texas and eastern Mexico late this weekend into next week, with locally fresh SE to SW winds expanding over the central and eastern Gulf by midweek, as a cold front moves over the southern U.S. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure located N of the area combined with the Colombian low is promoting fresh to strong trade winds offshore Colombia with moderate to rough seas. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are noted over the remainder of the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate trade winds are present across the basin along with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Scattered showers, with embedded thunderstorms, are confined to the southwestern Caribbean likely associated with the eastern extent of the eastern Pacific monsoon trough. Low-topped trade wind showers are seen elsewhere, with isolated thunderstorms in the regional waters of Jamaica. For the forecast, strong E to NE winds will pulse offshore of northern Colombia each night and morning through the middle of next week as low pressure prevails over the south-central Caribbean. Rough seas are expected near and to the west of these winds. Otherwise, high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will support moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas over the rest of the basin through early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front enters the forecast area near 31N66W and continues SW to near 28N76W. No significant convection is noted along the frontal boundary. High pressure dominates the remainder of the western Atlantic, with a 1020 mb high pressure located near 30N72W. Gentle to moderate NE winds are blowing between the Bahamas and Cuba while light to gentle winds are observed across the remainder of the area N of 20N W of 55W. Slight to moderate seas are within these winds. To the E, a 1011 mb low is centered near 23N55W. An surface trough is from 31N52W to the low to 20N57W. A surface trough is analyzed from 30N28W to 22N28W. Scattered showers are noted in the vicinity of the trough. The pressure gradient between this trough and high pressure of 1033 mb located NE of the Azores is resulting in an area of fresh to strong NE to E winds N of 27N between 25W and 35W. Rough seas are within these wind speeds. Mainly moderate trades with moderate seas dominate the tropical Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, locally fresh NE winds are expected over the southern Bahamas and through the Windward Passage through Sat morning as low pressure prevails in the south-central Caribbean. Farther north, moderate to fresh W to SW winds will occur offshore of northern Florida by Sat morning, with winds expanding farther east into the central Atlantic through Sun morning, ahead of a cold front pushing off the east coast of the United States. The cold front is slated to move southeastward along the Florida Peninsula and into the northwestern waters this weekend into early next week, with moderate to fresh N to NE winds and building seas expected in the wake of the front. Looking ahead, widespread moderate to fresh trade winds will occur over much of the western Atlantic by midweek as high pressure builds off the coast of the eastern U.S.