Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Dec 2 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 13N17W and continues to 05N30W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W to 07N48W to 06N55W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 08N between 10W and 25W. GULF OF AMERICA... A stationary front extends from Fort Myers, Florida to 1011 mb low pressure over the north-central Gulf near 28N90W to 28N94W to near Tuxpan, Mexico. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted from 28N to 29N between 85W and 90W. Fresh to locally strong SE winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are ongoing over the far northeast Gulf north of the front. Fresh N to NE winds and seas to 6 ft are also noted over the far northwest Gulf off the coast of Texas. Gentle to moderate breezes and 3 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the low pressure over the north-central Gulf will move quickly northeastward tonight, resulting in fresh to strong N winds and locally rough seas behind the associated frontal boundary. Winds and seas will diminish late Tue. Thereafter, the front will move southeastward farther into the basin, but then stall over the south-central Gulf by Wed, as another low forms over South Texas and the NW Gulf. Looking ahead, another cold front will enter the NW waters late Thu, reaching from SE Louisiana to near Poza Rica, Mexico Fri morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is moving slowly westward into the western Atlantic and through the Leeward Islands. This is disrupting the influence of the subtropical ridge north of the area, and is resulting in light to gentle breezes and 2 to 4 ft seas over the far eastern Caribbean. The ridge is still influencing the central Caribbean where moderate to fresh NE trade winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are evident. Fresh to locally strong NE winds may be impacting the Windward Passage. Light to gentle NE to E breezes and 2 to 3 ft seas are noted over the northwest Caribbean. A few showers and thunderstorms are active off eastern Panama, but fair conditions prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the trough will move to the north of Mona Passage through late Wed, then stall and dissipate. The ridge will then re-establish north of the area into Thu, supporting moderate to fresh trade wind flow across the eastern and central Caribbean through Fri with seas building slightly. Gentle breezes and slight seas will persist over the western Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Fresh SE winds and 5 to 6 ft seas are noted off northeast Florida and north of the northern Bahamas west of 77W, associated with a stationary front that extends from 30N78W to near Fort Pierce, Florida. Recent scatterometer satellite data showed a surface trough along roughly 61W, north of the Leeward Islands to 27N. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active on the northern end of the surface trough, from 22N to 30N between 55W and 63W. Weak ridging between the trough and the front is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds and 5 to 6 ft elsewhere east of 60W, except for fresh NE winds near the entrance to the Windward Passage. Elsewhere over the central and eastern Caribbean, fresh to strong E to SE winds are noted east of the trough. Seas are 9 to 11 ft in fresh swell from 20N to 27N between 45W and 60W, and 6 to 9 ft elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, expect fresh to strong southerly winds and building seas across the area north of 28N and west of 74W tonight and Tue as low pressure moves from the northern Gulf of America to the Carolinas. The associated cold front will reach the waters off the northeast Florida coast late on Tue, extending from near Bermuda to South Florida on Wed, and from 31N60W to central Cuba by late Thu. Meanwhile, fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas follow the surface trough currently located near 61W. The trough will continue to move westward, passing just N of Puerto Rico on Tue, and N of Hispaniola Wed and Thu. Winds and seas in the wake of the trough will gradually diminish over the next couple of days.