Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Dec 19 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1040 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warning: Low pressure of 1014 mb is located near 30N55W with a weakening cold front extending southwestward through 24N56W. NE gales are occurring within 90 nm in the NW semicircle, while strong strong to near gale force winda are occurring in the remainder vicinity of the low. Seas of 12 to 17 ft (3.5 to 5.0 m) are found north of 27N between 53W and 59W. Very rough seas are expected across the W semicircle of the low center through this afternoon, before the low begins to slowly weaken and gradually exits the forecast area Sat morning. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information this event. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Liberia coast near 07N11W and extends to 06N15W. The ITCZ continues westward from 06N15W to 01N32W to 02N43W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is occurring along and within 150 nm of these features between 15W and 36W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering widely scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the offshore waters of Panama and Costa Rica. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Surface high pressure is starting to build over the far NW Gulf in the wake of a cold front that this morning extends from the Florida Panhandle to NE Mexico. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the front is currently supporting fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front while seas remain moderate to 6 ft. Ahead of the front, winds are moderate or weakers and seas are slight. Otherwise, isolated showers preceed the front, affecting the SE and SW basin. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the cold front moving across the northern Gulf waters this morning. The front is forecast to move out of the basin during the afternoon today and winds will diminish to moderate or weaker speeds. Afterward, a ridge will build, dominating the Gulf waters this upcoming weekend into early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A trade wind regime prevails across the Caribbean with fresh to strong trades occurring offshore NW Colombia, along with seas of 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh trades and seas of 4-6 ft prevail in the central and eastern basin. The remainder of the Caribbean is seeing moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to locally rough seas will prevail over the south-central Caribbean through most of the forecast period. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are expected, with the exception of gentle to moderate winds over the NW Caribbean. Large E swell will persist over the tropical Atlantic waters, through the Atlantic passages and into the eastern part of the basin through Fri night. High pressure will strengthen north of the basin this upcoming weekend into early next week to bring fresh to strong winds across the central Caribbean, the Windward Passage, and in the lee of Cuba. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section about a Gale Warning in the western and central Atlantic. Low pressure of 1014 mb is located near 30N55W with a weakening cold front extending southwestward through 24N56W followed by a shear line that continues to 22N65W to the southern Bahamas offshore waters. Scattered heavy showers are in the vicinity of the low and ahead of the cold front to 49W. Scattered showers are also across the northern Bahamas and offshore waters of central and NE Florida ahead of the cold front that is moving across the Gulf of America. Aside from the shower activity, a tight pressure gradient support fresh to strong southerlies and rough seas to 10 ft N of 28N to near 71W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are elsewhere in the SW N Atlantic waters. Farther east, a cold front extends from 30N17W to 30N35W with moderate to fresh winds and rough seas to 11 ft. Otherwise, surface ridging prevails across much of the remainder basin with fresh to locally strong NE to E winds S of 24N between the coast of W Africa and 50W. For the forecast W of 55W, ongoing strong gale-force winds within 90 nm NW semicircle of the aforementioned low center and rough seas associated with this system are expected to continue through early this afternoon. The low will gradually weaken as it moves slowly E-NE across the far NE zones and exit the forecast area Sat morning. The next cold front will move into the NW waters this afternoon, reach from near Bermuda to the Straits of Florida Sat morning, then stall and weaken from 31N60W to the NW Bahamas Sat evening. Another cold front is forecast to move into the NW waters Sun night, and reach from 31N60W to central Florida by Mon evening, and from 29N55W to SE Florida Tue morning while dissipating.