Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Wed Mar 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between a Bermuda High and a Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades across the eastern Caribbean through tonight, and the central part of the basin through Wed night. Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to minimal gale-force during the night-time hours tonight and to near-gale force on Wed night. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are expected with these strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the forecast zones of Agadir and Tarfaya. The forecast calls for northerly gales with severe gusts through 12/0000 UTC at least. Very rough seas to around 12 ft (4 m) are likely with these winds. Please refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W, then continues SW to near 02N21W. The ITCZ extends from 02N21W to the coast of Brazil near 03S44.5W. Scattered moderate is noted S of 05N between 10W and 25W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface ridge extends from the western Atlantic across Florida into the Gulf region. A 1023 mb high pressure is located over the NE Gulf. This pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds and 3 to 6 ft seas across the western Gulf, and gentle to moderate E to SE winds with 1 to 3 ft seas over the eastern Gulf, with the exception of fresh to locally strong E winds and moderate seas in the Straits of Florida. Mostly cloudy skies are noted over the NW Gulf and the coast of Texas. For the forecast, a broad surface ridge extending across the basin will prevail through Wed. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Mexico will support mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds basin-wide, pulsing to fresh and strong near the northern Yucatan and the western Gulf in the evenings, and slightly weaker winds overall in the northeastern Gulf. Seas will be slight to moderate through Wed. A cold front will impact the northwestern Gulf beginning Wed night, before moving across the Gulf waters through Thu night, stalling and dissipating over the SE Gulf Fri and Fri night. In the wake of the front, winds will increase to fresh to near gale-force speeds and seas will build to 8 to 11 ft through Thu night, with conditions improving thereafter as ridging gradually rebuilds across the basin. Another cold front may approach early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds across the eastern part of the basin. Similar wind speeds are also observed in the lee of central Cuba. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between the Colombian low and the Atlantic ridge. Winds are gentle to moderate in the NW Caribbean. Rough seas of 8 to 11 ft prevail in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia, and are a bit more moderate at 6 to 8 ft in the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate seas are noted in the NW Caribbean. Locally rough seas are near Atlantic passages in E swell. A sharp upper-level trough extending from the SE Bahamas to Nicaragua is supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over the north-central Caribbean, mainly N of 15N. This convective activity is affecting parts of eastern Cuba, Hispaniola (more concentrated in Haiti), and Jamaica. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades across the eastern basin through tonight, and the central basin through Wed night. Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale- force during the night-time hours tonight and to near-gale on Wed night. Fresh to strong winds will linger in the S-central Caribbean into the upcoming weekend. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse near the Windward Passage and south of Haiti through Wed night. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Lee of Cuba through Wed night. Large easterly trade-wind swell from the tropical North Atlantic will keep rough seas near the Lesser Antilles through early Thu. Marine conditions will improve slightly but temporarily by the end of the week as the pressure gradient weakens due to a weak cold front approaching the NW Caribbean. High pressure will build across the Atlantic by the end of the weekend with fresh to strong trades and building seas extending from the Tropical N Atlantic to the eastern and central Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface ridge extends from 1029 mb high pressure centered east of Bermuda to the coasts of northeast Florida and Georgia. This pattern is supporting moderate to fresh E winds and 6 to 8 ft seas south of 25N and west of 55W, and light to gentle anticyclonic flow and 4 to 6 ft seas elsewhere. Farther east, a surface trough is along roughly 46W from 20N to 30N, associated with an upper- level low over that area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms associated with the upper low and surface trough are active from 22N to 25N between 35W and 41W. Moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 8 to 9 ft are seen on the E side of the trough axis. Strong upper-level winds are also supporting scattered showers and thunderstorms over parts of the Cabo Verde Islands. Fresh to strong NE winds are observed per scatterometer data N of 20N E of 20W, including the Canary Islands. Seas of 8 to 11 ft are with these winds based on altimeter data. In the tropical Atlantic, moderate to fresh trades and moderate to rough seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail south of 25N through Wed, reaching strong speeds north of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected elsewhere across the region through Wed. Southerly fresh to strong winds will develop off northern Florida Wed night ahead of a cold front. That front will move offshore Thu evening with fresh to strong winds and building seas behind it, weakening and slowing from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Fri. High pressure ridging will build across the basin for the end of the week into the weekend, with moderate to fresh trades dominating the basin by the end of the weekend, and rough seas over the SE waters.