Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Fri Mar 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic gale warning: A strong cold front will move into the waters offshore of northeast Florida by Sat morning, and reach from 31N60W to SE Florida by Sun morning before dissipating on Mon. Strong winds, with frequent gusts to gale force, and rough to very rough seas will follow the front through early Sun. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07.5N12.5W and continues southwestward to 0.5S29W. The ITCZ extends from 0.5S29W to 01S45W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03S to 03N between 15W and 35W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered over Georgia. Light winds are over the NE Gulf, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Seas are in the 1-2 ft range over the NE Gulf, and 2-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, weak high pressure will persist over the northeast Gulf through late Fri. A trough over the Bay of Campeche will support moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula, mainly at night, through early next week. The next cold front will move into the northern Gulf early Sat morning, reach the southeast Gulf by Sun morning, and move southeast of the basin late on Sun. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas are expected in the wake of the front over the eastern Gulf Sat night through early Mon. The pressure gradient will remain strong enough to sustain fresh to strong east winds across the southeast Gulf and the Straits of Florida through the middle of the next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the basin and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to locally strong trade winds and moderate seas in the south- central Caribbean. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh trade winds and moderate seas prevail across much of the basin. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area combined with the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trade winds and moderate to rough seas offshore Colombia through early next week. Looking ahead, high pressure will follow a strong cold front moving through the western Atlantic this weekend, supporting fresh to strong NE winds and building seas in the lee side of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola from Sat night through the early part of next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A dissipating stationary front extends from 31N60W to 29N75W. A surface trough extends from 31N46.5W to 21N56W. A few showers and thunderstorms are noted near these features. For the remainder of the basin, a weak pressure gradient is leading to moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, except for moderate to locally fresh winds east of the Lesser Antilles. In the far eastern Atlantic, moderate to fresh N-NE winds and rough seas are noted over the waters north of 25N and east of 27W. For the forecast west of 55W aside from the gale warning, a ridge will dominate the forecast waters through late Fri supporting gentle to moderate easterly winds and moderate seas. A strong cold front will move into the waters offshore of northeast Florida by Sat morning, and reach from 31N60W to SE Florida by Sun morning before dissipating on Mon. Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the front, with fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas across most of the forecast region likely through Tue.