Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Tue Aug 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1744 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a tropical wave are occurring around 550 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for development during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter half of this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. Formation chance in the next 48 hours is medium. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 32W from 07N to 19N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 13N between 28W and 40W. Please read the Special Features section above for more information about this wave. The axis of a tropical wave is along 52.5W from 07N to 18N, moving west at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 15N between 52W and 57W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 64W from 13N to 23N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Isolated showers are noted over the U.S. Virgin Islands and over portions of Puerto Rico. The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W S of 21N, moving west at 15 kt. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is depicted from 16N to 18.5N and west of 83W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 16N17W and continues southwestward to 1014 mb low pres near 10N31W to 10N51W. Aside from the convection mentioned in the tropical waves section, scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from 07N to 15N and east of 21.5W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface ridge extends from a High near 29N71W westward across the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds, and slight seas prevail across the Gulf waters. Typical gentle to moderate E to SE winds are occurring along the N and W coastal waters of the Yucatan Peninsula, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are blowing through the Straits of Florida, producing seas to 5 ft. A surface trough continues to drift westward across the Bay of Campeche and is yielding a small cluster of moderate convection offshore Veracruz. For the forecast, the aforementioned surface ridge will dominate the general wind flow pattern across basin through Sat night. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds will prevail across the basin, with the exception of pulses of fresh winds occurring north and west of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the Bay of Campeche each evening and night as a diurnal surface trough migrates from the Yucatan Peninsula westward across the SW Gulf. Slight to moderate seas are expected through the forecast period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a 1023 mb High and a 1008 mb Colombian Low is supporting strong to near gale-force winds, and moderate to rough seas, over the central Caribbean S of 16N between 71W and 79W. Fresh NE winds prevail through the Windward Passage and south of Cuba, while moderate to fresh trade winds prevail across the NE Caribbean to the Mona Passage in advance of an approaching tropical wave. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere across SE and NW portions. Along and ahead of the tropical wave near 85W a cluster of moderate to strong convection is impacting the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula, the Gulf of Honduras, and most of the coast of Nicaragua. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure ridging over the western Atlantic and lower pressure in northern South America will continue to support fresh to strong trades over the central portion of the basin through Wed night. The ridge will gradually shift southward to near 26N by Thu allowing for the trades to significantly expand in coverage to cover the eastern portion of the basin into early Sat. Winds are expected to reach near-gale force offshore Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela each night, except Wed night. Winds will pulse up to fresh to strong speeds during the evenings and at night in the Windward Passage through the forecast period. Otherwise, moderate to fresh trades will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure prevails over the waters N of 19N, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 28N43W. Light to gentle winds generally prevail over the waters N of 23N and west of 30W, with slight to moderate seas. Moderate to fresh trade winds are noted S of 23N and west of 30W, and moderate seas to 7 ft. Fresh to strong N to NE winds continues from the Canary Islands to 19N to the east of 37W, where seas are 5 to 8 ft. Saharan Air dominates most of the basin N of 15N from Africa through the southern Bahamas. For the forecast west of 55W, high pressure ridging along 28N will gradually shift southward to near 26N by Thu and change little into Sat. The gradient will tighten over the southern portion leading to an increase of the trades from the Bahamas eastward. Fresh trades will prevail N of Hispaniola and in the approach to the Windward Passage through the period, pulsing to strong speeds each night. Of note, an area of low pressure is located about 500 miles southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Environmental conditions are forecast to gradually become more conducive for development during the next day or two, and a tropical depression will likely form during the latter half of this week while the system moves westward to west-northwestward across the central tropical Atlantic. There is a high chance for tropical formation of this system within the next 7 days.