Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Thu Apr 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 11N15W and extends southwestward to 01N30W. The ITCZ extends from 01N30W to 01N50W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed south of the monsoon trough and east of 30W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak pressure gradient across the area is supporting gentle to moderate winds across the gulf waters. With these winds, seas are in the 3-6 ft range. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the Gulf region, with a relatively weak pressure gradient across the area. This will result in gentle to moderate SE winds and moderate seas basin-wide through. The exception will be off the Yucatan Peninsula, where a diurnal trough will pulse moderate winds to fresh during the evenings. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Fresh to locally strong winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, are over the Windward passage and in the lee of Cuba. Moderate to fresh winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are found off the coast of Colombia. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 2-3 ft prevail. For the forecast, high pressure located N of the basin will weaken over the next couple of days and support a weaker than usual pressure gradient across the Caribbean Sea into the weekend. This will result in mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas across the entire basin Fri through Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from near 31N48W to 24N56W, then stationary to eastern Cuba. Moderate to fresh winds, locally strong, are within 300 nm west of the front, with seas in the 6-9 ft range. Elsewhere W of the front, light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. High pressure dominates the remainder of the discussion waters, anchored by a 1019 mb high centered near 26N32W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Northerly swell is bringing rough seas of 8-10 ft to the waters N of 27N between 18W and 35W. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast west of 55W, conditions will gradually improve late this week as the front weakens and eventually stalls over the SE waters. High pressure in the wake of the front will weaken over the next couple of days, bringing a gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow with slight to moderate seas through the weekend. The exception will be over the NE waters where fresh westerly winds and rough seas are expected beginning on Fri as another cold front reaches the area by Sat.