Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Sun May 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A late frontal boundary stalls from near Cape Canaveral, Florida to 24N88W where it transitions to a cold front that continues to near Veracruz, Mexico. Strong to gale force northerly winds are behind the front S of Tampico where seas are in the 8 to 13 ft range. Elsewhere behind the front, N to NE winds are moderate to fresh, and seas moderate to rough. The front will slow as it reaches from SW Florida to the eastern Bay of Campeche Sun morning, then stall and gradually wash out by Mon morning. Fresh to strong N to NE winds will continue behind the front, near gale close to the coast near Tampico, and gales along the coast near Veracruz tonight into Sun morning before diminishing Sun afternoon. Mon and Tue should see quiescent conditions prevailing across the Gulf. Currently, a wide band of showers and thunderstorms related to the front is over portions of South Florida and the SE Gulf. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are likely within this convective band. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml ...TROPICAL WAVES... The first tropical wave of the season is analyzed along 35W, from 01N to 11N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is near the southern tip of the wave axis from 05S to 03N between 32W and 44W. The northern portion of the wave continues to move through a hostile dry environment which inhibit other impacts. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the Guinea coast near 10N15W, then continues SW to near 03N19W. The ITCZ extends from 03N19W to NE Brazil near 00N46W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, numerous moderate to strong convection is ongoing offshore Liberia. GULF OF AMERICA... Please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for information on a Gale Warning for the southern Gulf. As referenced above, a frontal boundary stalls from near Cape Canaveral, Florida to 24N88W where it transitions to a cold front that continues to near Veracruz, Mexico. Strong to gale force winds and rough seas are behind it mainly S of Tampico. An active band of showers and thunderstorms is over South Florida and the SE Gulf. Elsewhere behind the front, moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate to rough seas prevail. For the forecast, please, see the Special Features section for more details. Otherwise, moderate to fresh SE to S return flow will set up in the W Gulf Tue night and Wed, locally strong near the Yucatan. Looking ahead, another cold front may reach the NW Gulf by Thu. CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between a 1020 mb high pressure in the Atlantic located near 25N57W and a 1009 mb low pressure over northern Colombia is sustaining fresh trades in the central and eastern Caribbean along with moderate seas to 6 ft. Fresh to strong E to SE winds are in the NW basin, mainly off Belize and in the Gulf of Honduras along with seas to 6 ft. Convection continues to flare-up over the Yucatan Peninsula associated with a pre- frontal trough. A large area of showers and thunderstorms is extending from the peninsula to the NW Caribbean, as well as the Yucatan Channel. Otherwise, the E Pacific monsoon is supporting scattered showers offshore Colombia, Panama, Costa Rica, and southern Nicaragua. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the Colombian Low will support fresh to strong trades over the S central Caribbean and moderate to fresh trades over the remainder of the E and central Caribbean for the next several days. The SE fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of Honduras will diminish on Sun as a weakening cold front approaches the Yucatan Channel. After the cold front dissipates near the Yucatan Channel on Mon, expect SE winds over the Gulf of Honduras to increase Tue through Thu. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front off of the SE United States coast extends from 31N77W to Cape Canaveral and into the Gulf of America. A broad band of showers and tstms continue to affect the central and southern Florida offshore waters as well as the northen Bahamas offshores. Broad surface ridging dominates elsewhere in the subtropical waters where winds are mainly moderate or weaker, exc except for fresh to strong SW winds ahead of the front. Seas are moderate basin-wide. For the forecast west of 55W, the above mentioned front will reach from near 31N72W to the N Bahamas on Sun morning, and from 31N60W to a low forming near 27N74W Mon morning. The low will ride along the frontal boundary to be just south of Bermuda Tue morning with the front extending southwestward to the central Bahamas. The front should be dissipating by Wed morning. Expect fresh to strong SW winds south of the front tonight and Sun, followed by fresh to strong NE winds north of the front on Mon and Tue. Looking ahead, conditions should become quiescent Tue night through Thu. The next cold front may approach the SE United States coast by Thu night with the potential for increasing winds north of the Bahamas again.