Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Mar 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between the Atlantic ridge and the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong trades across the eastern Caribbean through today, and over the central part of the basin through Wed night. Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale-force during the night-time hours tonight. Seas of 8 to 12 ft are expected with the strongest winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Gale Warning E of 35W: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the forecast zones of Agadir and Tarfaya. The forecast calls for northerly gales with severe gusts through 11/0000 UTC at least. Recent scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these wind speeds. For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W then continues SW to near 01.5N21W. Then the ITCZ extends from 01.5N21W to 01S30W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are noted from 05N to 08N E of 15W to the coast of Africa, near 02N20W, and S of 01N between 35W and 45W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A ridge dominates the Gulf waters, with a 1022 mb high pressure located over the NE Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are found across most of the basin, with slight to moderate seas. An area of moderate to fresh easterly winds is noted over the SE Gulf within about 90 nm of the coast of western Cuba. Moderate E winds and moderate seas prevail in the Straits of Florida. For the forecast, a broad surface ridge extending across the basin will prevail through midweek. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Mexico will support mainly moderate to fresh E to SE winds basin-wide, pulsing to fresh and strong near the northern Yucatan and the western Gulf in the evenings, and slightly weaker winds overall in the northeastern Gulf. Seas will be slight to moderate through Wed. A cold front will impact the northwestern Gulf beginning Wed night, before moving across the basin through Fri night. In the wake of the front, winds will increase to fresh to strong speeds and seas will build to 7 to 10 ft through Thu night with conditions improving thereafter. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features section above regarding developing Gale conditions in the south-central Caribbean. Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong trade winds across the central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela. Similar wind speeds are also observed across the Windward Passage. These winds are the result of the pressure gradient between the Colombian low and the Atlantic high pressure. Winds are moderate to fresh across the remaining basin, except for light winds in far SW portions near the coasts of Costa Rica and western Panama. Rough seas of 8 to 10 ft prevail in the south-central Caribbean near the coast of Colombia, and are a bit more moderate at 6 to 8 ft in the remainder of the central and eastern Caribbean. Moderate seas are noted in the NW Caribbean, except in the lee of Cuba where slight seas are noted. Locally rough seas are near Atlantic passages. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are occurring over parts of Cuba and Hispaniola, more concentrated over Haiti. Passing showers dot much of the east and central portions of the basin. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between the Bermuda High and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong trades across the eastern basin through Tue, and the central basin through Wed night. Winds offshore of northwestern Colombia will pulse to gale- force during the night-time hours Tue night. Fresh to strong winds will linger in the south-central Caribbean into the upcoming weekend. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds will pulse near the Windward Passage and south of Haiti through Thu. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Honduras and Lee of Cuba through Wed night. Large easterly trade-wind swell from the tropical North Atlantic will keep rough seas near the Lesser Antilles through Wed night. Marine conditions will improve slightly by the end of the week as the pressure gradient weakens due to a weak cold front approaching the NW Caribbean. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper-level low is generating scattered showers and thunderstorms across the waters from 21N to 30N between 34W and 43W. A surface trough is analyzed in this area and runs from 31N39W to 22N41W. Fresh to strong SE winds are on the E side of the trough axis to about 30W. A ridge continues to dominate the remainder of the Atlantic forecast waters, with a 1030 mb high pressure located E of Bermuda near 32N58W, and a 1037 mb high pressure situated over the Azores. This pattern is supporting fresh to strong winds N of 18N and E of 30W, including the Canary Islands. Strong to minimal gale-force N winds are noted per scatterometer data near southern Morrocco. Moderate to fresh trade winds are south of 26N and west of 45W, becoming moderate SE to S winds north of the Bahamas and west of 70W. Moderate to rough seas in E swell are noted in this region of fresh winds as well as east of the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail over the rest of the basin. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to fresh easterly winds will prevail south of 26N through midweek, reaching strong speeds north of Hispaniola into the Windward passage at times. Rough seas will prevail within these winds and east of the central and southeast Bahamas through Tue. Moderate or weaker winds can be expected elsewhere across the region. Southerly fresh to strong winds may develop off northern Florida Wed night ahead of a cold front. That front will move offshore Thu night with fresh to strong winds and building seas behind it, weakening and slowing from near Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Fri. High pressure ridging will build across the basin for the start of the weekend.