Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Tue Jan 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0425 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between 1034 mb high pressure SW of the Azores and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to near gale-force NE to E winds offshore Colombia. These two features will remain in place through the middle of the week, before the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. Drainage flow at night will enhance winds off Colombia to gale force at night through Thu. Rough to locally very rough seas are forecast with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. Significant Heavy Rainfall in the Gulf of Honduras and northern Central America: Periods of significant heavy rainfall are expected through mid-week as abundant tropical moisture interacts with a dissipating stationary front extending from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras. Fresh to strong winds will persist over the NW Caribbean in the wake of the front. This will result in the continuation of heavy rainfall Tue through early Wed in the Gulf of Honduras and northern Honduras, where totals in excess of 12 inches will be likely. Please consult products from your local meteorological services for additional information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 03N22W. The ITCZ extends from 03N22W to 03S39W. Scattered moderate convection is observed within 120 nm on both sides of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A broad ridge dominates the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and slight to moderate seas across much of the basin. The dry continental airmass moving across the Gulf water suppresses the development of showers and thunderstorms. For the forecast, high pressure dominates the region. The pressure gradient between this system and a frontal boundary located over the NW Caribbean supports fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas across the SE and SW Gulf, including the Yucatan Channel. These marine conditions will continue to diminish tonight. However, strengthening high pressure over the SE of the United States will bring fresh to strong NE winds and building seas, mainly over the eastern Gulf, including the Straits of Florida, tonight through Wed. The next cold front is slated to enter the NW Gulf Fri night followed by fresh to strong winds and building seas. Gale conditions are possible over the west-central waters, including the Tampico area by Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section on Potential Heavy Rainfall in the NW Caribbean through midweek, as well as a gale warning offshore Colombia. A dissipating stationary front extends from Camaguey, Cuba to the Bay Islands and northern Honduras. Scattered showers are evident in the Bay Islands and ahead of the front. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to strong northerly winds behind the front. Seas in these waters are moderate to rough. The remainder of the Caribbean is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic. Outside of the south-central Caribbean, moderate to fresh easterly and moderate to rough seas prevail across the rest of the basin. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will dissipate on Tue. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas will persist over the NW Caribbean W of the front. By late Tue, strengthening high pressure over the SE of the United States will reinforce the northerly winds over the NW Caribbean, including the Gulf of Honduras. These marine conditions will improve by Wed. In addition, the NE winds will continue to transport abundant tropical moisture into northern Honduras supporting periods of heavy rainfall through mid-week. An area of moisture, currently located over the central Atlantic, will reach the Leeward Islands on Wed, and Puerto Rico on Thu increasing the potential for showers and isolated thunderstorms. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to the central Bahamas and then to Camaguey, Cuba. A few showers are seen near this boundary. Moderate to fresh northerly winds and moderate to rough seas are noted behind this boundary. The rest of the basin is dominated by an extensive subtropical ridge near the Azores. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics supports fresh to near gale-force easterly winds east of 60W and south of 28N. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. Fresh to strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas are also occurring off Morocco. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. Divergence aloft is sustaining a few showers east of the Lesser Antilles, especially south of 21N and between 40W and 55W. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will continue to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds east of 65W through Thu. A stationary front extends from near Bermuda to the coast of central Cuba. This feature will prevail in the area, then lift N while dissipating by midweek. High pressure building over the SE of the United States will reinforce the NE winds to fresh to strong speeds over the western Atlantic, in the vicinity of the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through Wed.