Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Apr 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western Atlantic Gale Warning: A slow-moving cold front extends from 31N72W to a 1009 mb low pressure centered near 29N73W to the Florida Straits. The front will drift slowly eastward, before stalling into the weekend from just E of Bermuda to eastern Cuba. The low will move NE along the boundary and lift N of the area near Bermuda Thu night. Thunderstorms with gusty winds will impact waters along and east of the cold front through at least Thu. The pressure gradient between strong high pressure to the north and the front is supporting NE gales offshore NE Florida, mainly N of 28N and W of 72W. These gales will continue through tonight before gradually diminishing as the low pressure weakens and begins to move N of the region. Very rough seas have been generated by these gales, and seas of up to 20 ft are forecast in the gale area today into tonight. The very rough seas will linger across portions of the waters N of the Bahamas into Thu night, with rough seas in N swell impacting much of the waters N of 25N into the weekend. With the stationary front lingering over the basin through the weekend, NE winds W of the boundary will be slow to diminish through the period. East Atlantic Large Swell: Long period NW to N swell continues to propagating through portions of the far eastern Atlantic, causing seas of 12 to 14 ft N of 19N and E of 39W. Rough seas cover a much broader area, N of 10N and E of 55W. The swell will only very slowly decay, and seas of 12 ft or greater will reach as far as 15N by Thu. Seas should fall below 12 ft Thu night, although rough seas will likely persist into the weekend. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details on both the West Atlantic Gale Warning and the Significant Swell in the East Atlantic. East Atlantic Gale Warning: Meteo-France has issued a Gale Warning for the forecast zone of Madeira. The forecast calls for NW gales to 40 kt, with severe gusts from 08/12 UTC to 09/00 UTC at least. Very rough seas in NW swell are also reaching the islands. For more details, refer to the Meteo- France High Seas Forecast listed on their website https://wwmiws.wmo.int ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 07N11W and continues SW to 02N21W. The ITCZ extends west-southwestward from 02N21W to 00N44W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03S to 07N between 05W and 38W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A slow-moving cold front extends from the Florida Keys to a 1010 mb low pressure centered near 24N85W to just N of the Yucatan Channel. ENE winds gradually increase N of this boundary, becoming strong in the NE Gulf, where seas are rough. in the western Gulf, mainly gentle NE winds and moderate seas prevail. A cluster of moderate convection has developed early this morning within 90 nm of the coast of Tampico, Mexico, otherwise no thunderstorms are present in the Gulf. For the forecast, the cold front will drift slowly E and out of the basin by Thu, keeping strong to near gale-force NE winds and rough seas in place over the NE Gulf into Thu. As high pressure builds SW into the northern Gulf Fri through the weekend, moderate to fresh E to SE winds will establish through the basin. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The Atlantic ridge extends SW reaching the NE Caribbean. This system is supporting fresh to locally strong E to SE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft across the eastern part of the basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are ongoing across the SW Caribbean while light and variable winds and slight seas dominate the NW Caribbean. Scattered moderate convection is noted between Jamaica, eastern Cuba, and Haiti, in association with a trough to the north. For the forecast, fresh to strong trades will prevail over the central and eastern basin into Thu, with gentle to moderate winds to the west. Strong high pressure will then build southward from the western Atlantic, with a tightening pressure gradient leading to increasing winds, especially in the south-central basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A Gale Warning is in effect for the portions of the western Atlantic. A Gale Warning has also been issued by Meteo-France for portions of the far eastern Atlantic. Please refer to the Special Features section for details. Aside from the cold front that is inducing the gales, a low pressure trough along 68W from 31N southward to about 22W is leading to fresh to strong S winds N of 26N between the trough axis and 60W. The trough and cold front are leading to numerous moderate to scattered strong convection extending northward from Hispaniola and eastern Cuba between 65W and 75W. E of 65W, broad northeast to east winds dominate the basin. Most areas are having moderate to fresh breezes, but a zone of strong easterly extend N of 20N and E of 40W, where some significant northerly swell is leading to very rough seas. Details on the swell and its forecast propagation can be found in the Special Features section above. Moderate seas dominate the remainder of the Atlantic. For the forecast west of 55W, please refer to the Special Features Western Atlantic Gale Warning section for forecast details related to the marine conditions caused by the previously mentioned frontal boundary.