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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Fri Dec 12 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1728 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... East Atlantic Gale Warnings: MeteoFrance has issued Gale Warnings for their MADEIRA and CANARIAS Marine Zones. For Madeira, the warning is valid through 13/12Z at least, and for Canarias, the warning is valid from 12/15Z to 13/12Z at least. Please visit website: wwmiws.wmo.int/ index.php/metareas/display/2 for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 08N13W, then runs southwestward to 06N21W. The ITCZ meanders westward from 06N21W to 03N33W to 03N48W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N between the coast of Africa and 16W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 18W and 47W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weakening cold front has become nearly stationary through the Straits of Florida to near extends westward from the Great Bahama Bank across the Florida Straits to near 23N83W. Isolated showers are present along the front. Isolated convection is found over central Bay of Campeche along a surface trough. A 1021 mb high across northern Florida is supporting light to gentle anticyclonic winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft across the north- central and northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE winds are found across the S, W, and, NW waters, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, weak high pressure across the NE Gulf will slide eastward and into the Atlantic through Sat to produce moderate to occasionally fresh E to SE winds across the S and W Gulf. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are expected over the remainder of the basin through Sat. The next cold front is expected to enter the northern Gulf on Sun morning, bringing increasing winds and building seas behind the front. The front is expected to reach the southern Gulf along 24N by Mon morning and move south of the basin late Mon night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough embedded within the trade-wind flow is triggering scattered to numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Gulf of Honduras and extends northward to central Cuba. An upper level trough across the SW Caribbean is producing scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the coastal waters of Nicaragua west of 79W. Fresh to strong ENE to E trades and seas at 8 to 11 ft are occurring across the south- central Caribbean to 80W. Moderate to fresh ENE to E trades and 5 to 7 ft seas are found across the north- central basin. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, widespread fresh trade winds are expected over the central and eastern Caribbean through Sun morning as a moderate pressure gradient prevails between the Colombian low and migrating high pressure to the north along 29N. Strong E winds will pulse to near gale-force at night offshore of northern Colombia. Elsewhere, fresh to locally strong trade winds and rough seas in large E swell will prevail over the Atlantic waters and through the passages and into the eastern basin through Mon. Looking ahead, a cold front will enter the northwestern Caribbean early Mon, accompanied by increasing winds and building seas behind the front. This front is expected to reach from central Cuba to N Belize Tue evening then begin to stall and weaken. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section above for more information about the Gale warning in effect over the Eastern Atlantic. A cold front curves southwestward from just W of Bermuda across 30N66W and through the central Bahamas and into the Straits of Florida. Patchy showers are found along this feature. Another stronger cold front is parallel to the front about 160 east of the first front and extends to 25N67W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen near and up to 120 nm east of this front, mainly north of 26N. Fresh to strong SW winds and 7 to 10 ft seas prevail east of the leading fronts, north of 29N between 50W and 60W, while moderate to fresh NW to W winds prevail north of 29N and west of the westernmost front, where seas are 7 to 9 ft in NW swell. East of 40W, fresh to strong NE to E winds with 10 to 15 ft seas in large NW swell prevail along and north of a eastern Atlantic front. A 1035 mb high is centered north of this boundary near 37N27W. Across the rest of the Atlantic waters north of 22N between 65W and the Florida/southern Georgia, gentle to moderate winds and seas of 4 to 8 ft prevail. Across the tropical waters from 05N to 23N between 35W and the Lesser Antilles, fresh to strong E to ESE trades with 9 to 11 ft seas persist. For the forecast, strong SW winds will occur ahead of the front, generally north of 28N and east of 60W through this afternoon. Rough seas in SW swell will prevail ahead of the front with a brief period of large NW swell expected north of 27N behind the front through Sat morning. Elsewhere in the central Atlantic, rough seas in mixed N and SE swell will prevail E of 65W through late today, with a new mixed swell reinforcing rough seas there Sun through Mon. The next cold front is slated to move off the coast of the southeastern United States on Sun, with increasing winds and quickly building seas expected behind the front. The front is forecast to reach from just E of Bermuda to the central Bahamas by Mon morning, then weaken as it reaches from 29N55W to the SE Bahamas and central Cuba Tue morning.