Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue Feb 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0940 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A cold front reaches southwestward from the north-central Atlantic near 31N48W to just NE of the offshore waters of Puerto Rico near 20N65W where it stalls and continues SW to NW Colombia. Large NW swell behind this front is producing 12 to 16 ft seas across the western and central Atlantic, between 42W and 71W. The cold front will move east-northeasward across the central and eastern Atlantic and move inland NW Africa Thu evening. Large long-period NW swell in the wake of the front will continue to produce 12 to 15 ft seas, affecting the eastern subtropical Atlantic waters through Sat. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the Guinea coast near 10N13W, then extends southwestward to 05N17W. The ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 05N17W to 02N28W to 01N41W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 00N to 07N between 04W and 27W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface ridge extending southwestward from a 1029 mb high to near Tampico, Mexico is dominating the entire Gulf. The gradient of pressure between the ridge and lower pressure over N Texas and central United States is supporting fresh to strong SE to S winds over the far western Gulf, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds over the SE Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds in the far western basin will persist through late today. The next cold front will enter the NW Gulf by early Wed morning, then sweep southward across the Gulf region through Thu evening. Fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas will follow the front. Winds and seas will begin to diminish across the Gulf area Thu night into Fri. High pressure will build in the wake of the front Sat. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from La Mona Passage to northern Colombia where it is helping to induce scattered showers. Fresh to near gale-force NNE winds and rough seas are noted in the wake of the front, affecting both La Mona Passage and the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh NE winds are ongoing in the NW Caribbean with rough seas between Jamaica and E Honduras. In the SE Caribbean, trades are gentle to moderate and seas to 6 ft. For the forecast, the front is forecast to dissipate late tonight into Wed. Fresh to strong winds will persist in the central Caribbean through Wed, with winds gradually veering to the E as high pressure settles N of the area. An area of moisture associated with this frontal boundary will remain and move westward across the central Caribbean today, reaching the coast of Nicaragua on Wed. Looking ahead, another cold front is expected to reach the NW Caribbean late on Thu, bringing fresh to near gale-force N winds and building seas. The front will move quickly across the basin, reaching from eastern Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras Thu night into Fri while weakening. Winds and seas in the central Caribbean will improve Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on the significant swell event. A cold front extends from 31N48W to 20N65W where it becomes stationary and continues SW across the Mona Passage to NW Colombia. Fresh to strong winds are on either side of the front N of 25N. Very rough seas to 16 ft, in long period NW swell, are found in the wake of the front. Rough seas are also ahead of the front. The remainder basin is under the influence of surface ridging and devoid of convection. Over the tropical waters, winds are moderate to fresh from the NE to E and seas are moderate to rough. For the forecast west of 55W, the north part of the front will continue to move eastward while the southern part of it will remain nearly stationary in the vicinity of Puerto Rico and the northern Leeward Islands through early Wed, then the front will begin to lift N late on Wed ahead of the next cold front forecast to move off NE Florida on Thu. Another round of fresh to near gale-force winds and building seas is expected with the next cold front, which is forecast to extend from Bermuda to the Dominican Republic by Fri morning and move E of the area on Sun.