Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Jan 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0425 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A strong ridge north of the Caribbean Sea will support gale-force NE winds tonight and through early Thu morning over the waters offshore Colombia. Winds will continue to pulse to near-gale in the same area through the end of the week. Rough seas are forecast with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W and continues southwestward to 03N23W. The ITCZ extends from 03N23W to 01N37W and to 01S48W. Scattered moderate convection is observed south of 05N and east of 29W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... High pressure over the western Atlantic extends a ridge to the Gulf waters, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas east of 90W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. Light showers are evident in the Florida Straits due to a dissipating stationary front. For the forecast, the next cold front is expected to enter the NW Gulf Sat followed by fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas. Reinforcing high pressure in the wake of the front, may bring near-gale to gale conditions first near Tampico Sun night, then near Veracruz on Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the Special Features section on a Gale Warning off the coast of Colombia. Outside of the south-central Caribbean, a strong subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic supports moderate to locally strong easterly winds and seas of 6-8 ft in the north-central and NE Caribbean, including the Windward Passage. Moderate to locally fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the SE Caribbean and lee of Cuba. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are evident. For the forecast, gale force NE winds will continue to pulse tonight and through early Thu morning over the waters offshore Colombia. Winds will continue to pulse to near-gale in the same area through the end of the week. A surface trough, and associated area of moisture, will move across the Leeward Islands this evening, and over Puerto Rico on Thu, likely reaching Hispaniola on Fri. This is forecast to increase the likelihood of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the islands and surrounding waters. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends from 31N55W to 28N63W, followed by a dissipating stationary front to the central Bahamas and Florida Straits. A few showers are noted near this boundary. The tropical Atlantic is dominated by an extensive, strong ridge north of Bermuda, supporting fresh to near gale-force easterly trade winds and rough to locally rough seas south of 27N and east of 65W. The strongest winds and highest seas are found south of 20N and between the Lesser Antilles and Africa. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas are noted west of 65W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. A weak surface trough east of the Lesser Antilles and divergence aloft sustains scattered showers south of 20N and east of 47W. For the forecast west of 55W, the Atlantic high pressure will continue to promote fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas east of 65W through Thu. A weakening stationary front extends from 31N57W to 24N80W. This front will drift N and gradually dissipate through Thu. The pressure gradient over the W Atlantic will continue to support fresh NE winds in the vicinity of the Bahamas and the Straits of Florida through tonight. The next cold front will likely move offshore NE FL by Mon. Ahead of the front, fresh to strong SW winds are possible on Sun night, mainly W of 75W.