Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Wed Aug 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1732 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Eastern Tropical Atlantic (Invest AL96): An area of low pressure, associated with a tropical wave, is located a few hundred miles west-southwest of the Cabo Verde Islands. Showers and thunderstorms associated with this system have changed little in organization over the past several hours. Environmental conditions are somewhat favorable for development over the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form over the next day or two as the system moves westward to west-northwestward near 20 mph across the eastern and central tropical Atlantic. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive by this weekend, potentially ending its chances for development. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable by this weekend, potentially ending its chances for development. Formation chance through 48 hours and 7 days is medium. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOAT.shtml for more details on this feature. Caribbean Gale Warning: Tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean Sea and lower pressures in northern Colombia will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale-force tonight and Thu night off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, along with locally very rough seas. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 59W, south of 21N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring in association with this wave. A central Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 75W, south of 20N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered showers are depicted over the Windward Passage and between Jamaica and eastern Cuba. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends southwestward from 17N16W to 09N33W to 10N43W. The ITCZ continues from 10N43W to 11N57W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 05N to 13N and east of 20W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 10N to 15N between 50W and 57W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered showers prevail north of 25.5N, while generally dry conditions are present in the remainder of the Gulf waters. A weak high pressure system over the NE Gulf maintains moderate or weaker winds and slight seas across much of the basin. For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will persist across the Gulf waters through the forecast period, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong with moderate seas off western Yucatan during the evenings due to a diurnal surface trough moving west off the peninsula each night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the waters off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. Divergence aloft and tropical moisture combine to produce scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms over the Gulf of Honduras, Costa Rica and Panama offshore waters. Dry conditions prevail elsewhere. Outside of the Gale Warning area, fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas are noted in the north- central and SW Caribbean. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, a tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale- force tonight and Thu night off Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela, along with locally very rough seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong in the Windward Passage at night. An area of low pressure, Invest AL96, currently located in the eastern Atlantic has a medium chance of tropical development over the next 7 days. The system may bring increasing winds and seas to portions of the Tropical N Atlantic this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on an area of low pressure, Invest AL96, that has a high chance of development. Divergence aloft supports scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 70W, affecting the Florida coast and NW Bahamas. Farther east, a weak surface trough along 58W is producing scattered showers between 56W and 60W and north of 23N. The rest of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are noted east of 60W. Meanwhile, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are found west of 60W. However, gusty winds and higher seas are likely near the stronger storms. For the forecast west of 55W, the subtropical ridge, and associated weak pressure gradient, will dominate the SW N Atlantic waters through the next several days. This will support mainly moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. Winds will pulse to fresh to locally strong off northern Hispaniola at night. An area of low pressure, Invest AL96, currently located in the eastern Atlantic has a medium chance of tropical development over the next 7 days. The system may bring increasing winds and seas to portions of the southeast waters this weekend.