Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Thu Jul 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the islands and lower pressures in NW South America will support strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas in the central Caribbean during the next several days. Winds will increase to gale-force in the offshore waters of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela tonight. Seas are expected to build to around 13 ft with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.gov/text/MIAHFSAT2.shtml ...TROPICAL WAVES... An eastern Atlantic tropical wave is along 33W, south of 18N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 04N to 11N and between 23W and 24W. A central Atlantic tropical wave is along 54W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 07N to 16N and between 44W and 61W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 68W, south of 19N, moving westward at 15 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic from Mauritania at 18N16W to 06N25W and to 12N38W. The ITCZ extends from 12N38W to 11N53W and then from 10N55W to 08N59W. Please see the Tropical Waves section above for information on the convection near the monsoon trough and ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen in the NE Gulf waters associated with a frontal boundary north of the area and low-level convergence. The remainder of the basin is under fairly tranquil weather conditions. A weak pressure gradient dominates the Gulf waters, resulting in moderate or weaker winds and slight seas. However, stronger winds and higher seas are likely occurring near the stronger convection. For the forecast, a surface ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf region promoting gentle to moderate winds for the next several days. The exception will be fresh NE winds off the northwest coast of the Yucatan peninsula nightly into the weekend. Unsettled weather in the form of scattered and thunderstorms will continue over the NE Gulf through the weekend as a frontal boundary remains just N of the area, and as a moist and unstable airmass prevails over that section of the Gulf. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning in effect for the south-central Caribbean. An upper-level low over the Yucatan peninsula is generating a few showers and isolated thunderstorms west of 80W in the western Caribbean. Drier conditions are noted elsewhere. High pressure north of the islands forces fresh to near gale- force easterly trade winds and rough seas across the central Caribbean, with the strongest winds and highest seas to 11 ft occurring off NW Colombia. A recent partial scatterometer satellite pass captured winds up to 29 kt. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are found in the eastern Caribbean. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or lighter winds and slight to locally moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Gale Warning is in effect for the offshore waters of Colombia for tonight. Seas are expected to build to around 13 ft with these winds. Elsewhere across the central Caribbean, fresh to near gale trades will continue to expand in coverage through early Fri as the pressure gradient between the Atlantic high pressure and low pressure in northern Colombian tightens. Mostly fresh trades will continue elsewhere south S of about 18N through the rest of the forecast period. Fresh to strong winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras tonight and Fri night. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A broad subtropical ridge continues to dominate much of the tropical Atlantic waters. In the SW North Atlantic, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted north of 28N and west of 70W associated with a cold front and upper-level trough just north of the area. The pressure gradient between the aforementioned high pressure and frontal boundary results in fresh to strong S-SW winds and seas of 6-9 ft north of 27N and west of 65W. Stronger winds and higher seas may be occurring near the stronger convection. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 5-8 ft are occurring north of the ITCZ and monsoon trough to 25N and west of 35W. In the far eastern Atlantic, fresh to strong N winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident north of 15N and east of 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast west of 55W, a high pressure ridge extending from 25N65W to the Straits of Florida will change little through Sat night before it shifts northward to near 28N into early next week. The gradient between the ridge and a frontal boundary just NW of the forecast waters will continue to generally support fresh to strong SW winds along with scattered showers and thunderstorms primarily north of 27N and west of 65W for the rest of the week and into the weekend. Fresh to strong trades will pulse just north of Hispaniola at night and into the mornings through the upcoming weekend.