Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Dec 5 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0550 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from 08N13W to 07N19W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N19W to 04N33W to 00N47W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 13N between 12W and 43W. GULF OF AMERICA... A cold front extends from a 1015 mb low pres near 29N91W to Tamaulipas and a few showers are noted near the boundary. A warm front also extends from the low NE and along the Florida Panhandle. Ahead of the front, a weak pre-frontal trough extends from 28N85W to 24N87W. Otherwise, the tail of a dissipating stationary front is across the Florida Straits. Behind the front, winds are fresh to strong from the north and seas and seas are moderate to 6 ft. Ahead of the front, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are slight. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and moderate seas will occur in the western Gulf behind the front into Fri afternoon. Localized near-gale force winds will be possible offshore of northeastern Mexico early on Fri. Mainly moderate or weaker winds are then expected over the basin Fri evening into Sun. Looking ahead, a new cold front is expected to enter the northwestern Gulf late on Sun and sweep over the basin into early next week, leading to fresh to strong N to NW winds and building seas in the wake of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... Atlantic surface ridging extending across the northern Caribbean is supporting the continuation of moderate to fresh trade winds in the central and eastern basin where seas are moderate to 7 ft. Moderate or weaker winds are elswewhere, except for fresh NE to E winds in the Windward Passage and the lee side of Cuba. Seas are slight to moderate with this winds. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are expected over much of the Caribbean through this weekend as low pressure prevails over the south-central basin and high pressure drifts eastward in the central Atlantic. Locally strong winds may pulse offshore of Colombia late tonight. Mainly moderate trade winds are then expected early next week. Rough seas in E swell will prevail east of the Lesser Antilles and through the Atlantic Passages into early next week. Looking ahead, a cold front may approach the northwestern Caribbean early next week, allowing for generally tranquil marine conditions in the region. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weak cold front extends from 31N61W to the central Bahamas where it becomes stall to the Florida Straits and also starts to dissipate. Surface ridging dominate the remainder subtropical waters along with moderate or weaker winds and mainly moderate seas to 7 ft. For the forecast west of 55W, a weakening cold front is slated to move through the central Atlantic on Fri, leading to fresh NW to NE winds and rough seas north of 27N and east of 65W through Fri night. A low pressure system moving through the southern United States will support fresh to locally strong SW winds offshore of northern Florida by Fri morning, with fresh to strong winds and locally rough seas expanding eastward into the central Atlantic this weekend. A cold front associated with this system will push offshore of the southeastern U.S. this weekend, leading to locally fresh N to NE winds in the wake of the front offshore of Florida. Looking ahead, a complex low pressure system and strong cold front may move through the northwestern tropical Atlantic by early next week, supporting widespread fresh to strong winds and building seas ahead of and behind the front.