Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1815 UTC Mon Mar 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 01N22W. The ITCZ extends from 01N22W to 02S45W. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is south of 07N and east of 23W. GULF OF AMERICA... A broad subtropical ridge over the eastern Gulf waters supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds in the SW Gulf and Bay of Campeche. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight seas prevail. Dry weather conditions dominate the basin. For the forecast, high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf will maintain gentle to moderate SE winds and slight to moderate seas across the western Gulf, and light to gentle breezes over the eastern Gulf into late week. A trough over the Bay of Campeche will support occasional moderate to fresh winds off the northern and western coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula mainly at night through mid-week. CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure remains in place over the eastern Gulf of America and also the W Atlantic N of the Turks and Caicos Islands. A cold front and attendant frontal remnant trough extend from the Anegada Passage into the central Caribbean. Recent scatterometer satellite passes confirmed fresh to strong NE winds through the northern Caribbean passages as well as in the lee of both Hispaniola and Cuba. Moderate seas prevail in these waters. Moderate or weaker trades and 3-5 ft seas prevail elsewhere across the Caribbean. For the forecast, building high pressure over the western Atlantic will support fresh to locally strong NE winds south of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and just south of Hispaniola into tonight. Fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas will develop offshore Colombia Tue through Fri, mainly at night, as the high pressure moves slightly eastward. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N51W to the U.S.V.I and Puerto Rico. Recent satellite scatterometer data indicates strong to near-gale force SE winds north of 27N and east of the front to 46W, and fresh to strong NW winds north of 27N and west of the front to 58W. Combined seas are 8 to 12 ft north of 25N between 47W and 60W. In the rest of the SW North Atlantic west of 50W, a subtropical ridge anchored by a 1019 mb high near 27N70W is sustaining moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. In the eastern Atlantic, a weakening 1005 mb low pressure centered SW of the Canary Islands forces fresh to strong N-NE winds and rough to very rough seas north of 20N and east of 30W. N-NW swell support rough seas in the eastern Atlantic and central Atlantic trade waters. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, a cold front extends from 31N50W to the U.S.V.I. and Puerto Rico. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas follow the front over the waters north of 27N and east of 61W this morning. The cold front is forecast to move into the central Atlantic through early Wed while gradually dissipating. A new cold front is forecast to enter the offshore waters between northeast Florida and Bermuda tonight into Tue, followed by fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas. These marine conditions are forecast to affect most of the waters north of 28N into mid-week before the front stalls then lifts northward.