Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Mon Mar 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low will support strong to near gale- force easterly trade winds and rough seas across the south- central Caribbean. Winds will pulse to gale force over these waters at night with the added component of nocturnal drainage flow. Locally very rough seas are expected with these winds. Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A previous gale force wind event off the Canary Islands generated a large NE swell with very rough seas greater than 12 ft. The swell has propagated from this source region, with these very rough seas currently over the waters from 10N to 20N between 33W and 50W. The seas, currently peaking near 14 ft, are gradually subsiding and will decrease below 12 ft by Tue. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa near 08N13W and continues southwestward to 03N19W. The ITCZ extends from 03N19W to the coast of Brazil near 04S38W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted S of 06N between 10W and 40W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak frontal boundary extends from the Florida Keys westward to 25N84W and to near 24N87W. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are along and near the boundary. Winds over the Gulf are moderate or weaker, with slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, the frontal boundary will slowly move southeastward and exit the basin tonight while becoming diffuse. Afterward, an expansive area of strong high pressure will build west- southwestward from the central N Atlantic over the area starting tonight and hold through the upcoming week. Its related pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh east to southeast winds across the Gulf. Locally strong winds will occur at night off the northern Yucatan Peninsula starting Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features section above for pulsing gales in the south central Caribbean. A broad ridge of high pressure extends from a 1033 mb high center over the central Atlantic to the western Atlantic waters N of the area. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds over the south central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh winds elsewhere E of 80W. Light to gentle winds are over the western Caribbean. Seas are in the 7-10 ft range over the south central Caribbean, and 6-8 ft elsewhere E of 80W. W of 80W, seas are in the 2-4 ft range. For the forecast, the pressure gradient over the area will support fresh to near gale- force trades and moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean through the forecast period. Winds will pulse to gale- force at night over these waters through the upcoming week. Fresh to strong northeast winds will begin in the Windward Passage late Mon night. Fresh to strong east winds will begin to pulse in the Gulf of Honduras starting Wed night. Rough seas in mixed swell will prevail in the tropical N Atlantic through the forecast period, with seas to 12 ft reaching 55W Mon. These seas will subside to just below 12 ft on Wed, then continue to slowly subside through the rest of the forecast period. Elsewhere, little change is expected, with moderate to fresh trades continuing through the period. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features above for more on significant swell. A weak frontal boundary extends southwestward from near 31N70W to the NW Bahamas and to the Florida Keys while a trough ahead of it extends from 28N72W to the southeastern Bahamas and to near eastern Cuba. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are evident within 60 nm northwest of the frontal boundary and within 30 nm southeast of the boundary N of 27N. To the east, numerous showers and thunderstorms are located north of 26N and east of the frontal boundary and trough to a line from 31N64W to 26N70W. Farther east, high pressure dominates, anchored by a 1033 mb high centered near 32N38W. The pressure gradient between this high center and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to trong trades over much of the waters S of 27N and E of 55W. Rough to very rough seas are over these waters. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the frontal boundary will weaken as it slowly moves southeastward reaching from near 31N67W to 28N70W and stationary front to the Florida Keys tonight, and from near 31N62W to the central Bahamas early on Mon as it becomes diffuse. Elsewhere, high pressure over the central Atlantic continues to maintain control over much of the western Atlantic while rough seas prevail over the southeastern waters. Another cold front is expected to enter the northern waters during the early part of the week and gradually shift southeastward and weaken. Fresh to near gale-force easterly winds and rough to very rough seas, peaking to around 13 ft, are forecast behind the front Mon through late Tue night north of 27N. An expansive area of strong high pressure will build across the north-central Atlantic by the middle of the upcoming week resulting in moderate to fresh winds and rough seas over much of the basin.