Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Mon Mar 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Caribbean Sea Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low will continue to support strong to near gale-force NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas across the south-central and portions of the SW Caribbean through at least Sat. Winds will pulse to gale-force over these waters at night with the added component of nocturnal drainage flow. Central and Eastern Atlantic Significant Swell Event: A previous gale force wind event off the Canary Islands generated a large NE swell with very rough seas greater than 12 ft. The swell has propagated from this source region, with these very rough seas currently over the waters from 09N to 23N between 33W and 52W. The seas, currently peaking near 12 ft will gradually subside from east to west through Tue night while rough seas to 10 ft are forecast to subside E of the Lesser Antilles late on Sun. Please read the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic off the coast of Africa near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 02N18W. The ITCZ extends from that point to the coast of Brazil near 02S40W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted within 360 nm on either side of the boundaries. ...GULF OF AMERICA... The tail of a weakening stationary front extends across the Straits of Florida to the SE Gulf near 25N87W while a broad surface ridge prevails elsewhere. Winds N of 23N are moderate to locally fresh from the E to SE over the NW Gulf. Seas are mainly slight to 3 ft basin-wide. For the forecast, the tail of the weakening stationary front will dissipate over the SE Gulf today. Afterward, an expansive area of strong high pressure will build WSW from the central N Atlantic and hold through the weekend. Its related pressure gradient will support moderate to fresh E to SE winds across the Gulf. Locally strong winds will occur at night off the northern Yucatan Peninsula starting Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see Special Features section above regarding a Gale Warning in the south-central Caribbean. Surface ridging from strong high pressure over the E CONUS and also the Azores High extends across the northern Caribbean, thus supporting the continuation of fresh to strong winds over the eastern and central Caribbean, and moderate to fresh NE winds in the lee side of Cuba. Seas in the regions of highest winds are moderate, except rough offshore Colombia and slight seas over the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic will support fresh to near gale-force trades and moderate to rough seas across the central and eastern Caribbean through Fri night. A tighter pressure gradient will initiate gale-force winds off Colombia at night beginning tonight and continuing through at least Sat. Fresh to strong NE winds will also begin in the Windward Passage and the lee side of Cuba this evening and will continue through Fri. In the Gulf of Honduras, fresh to strong E winds will begin to pulse at night from Thu through Sat. Otherwise, rough to very rough seas in mixed NE to E swell over the tropical N Atlantic will subside on Sun. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features above for information on a significant swell event. A strong Azores high extending a ridge into the deep tropical waters continue to support a broad area of fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas from the coast of W Africa all the way to the Lesser Antilles and between the ITCZ and 27N. Northwest of the Canary Islands, a cold front brings fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas in NW swell. Lastly, a weak stationary front extends from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas. Scattered showers and thunderstorms prevail ahead of the front and a pre-frontal trough to about 60W. Moderate NE winds and seas follow the front. For the forecast west of 55W, the stationary front will weaken further as it slowly moves southeastward before becoming diffuse tonight. Elsewhere, high pressure over the central Atlantic will prevail over much of the western Atlantic while rough seas will continue over the southeastern waters. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough to very rough seas are forecast behind the remnants of the aforementioned front through Tue night north of 27N. An expansive area of strong high pressure will build across the north-central Atlantic by the middle of the week resulting in moderate to fresh winds and rough seas over much of the basin.