Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Wed Dec 24 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Central Atlantic Significant Swell: A cold front will move eastward across Central Atlantic waters through Wed, with strong to near gale-force N winds behind it. Significant NW to N swell, with period of 8 to 12 seconds, generated by gales north of the region is combining with wind-waves to induce very rough seas southeast of Bermuda that will spread to the southeast across waters north of 22N into Wed night. Widespread seas of 12 to 17 ft can be expected from 35W to 67W during this period. Another cold front may bring similar conditions late this week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more information. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Atlantic near 10N15W and extends southwestward to 04N19W and then to 04N25W. The ITCZ extends from 04N25W to 04N51W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 06N between 04W and 15W, and from 02S to 02N between 40W and 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A surface trough extends off the coast of the Yucatan peninsula in the SW Gulf. Moderate to fresh winds are over the SE Gulf, with moderate winds elsewhere E of 93W. W of 93W, gentle winds are noted. Seas are in the 6-7 ft range over the SE Gulf, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, strong high pressure centered over the western Atlantic will support fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas across the Straits of Florida and the SE Gulf through early Wed, then mainly fresh winds will prevail through Wed night. A ridge will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Gulf region the remainder of the week, with a high pressure center located over the NE Gulf Thu through Sat. This system will produce mainly a gentle to moderate wind flow with slight to moderate seas. The next cold front is forecast to enter the NW Gulf on Mon. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... The pressure gradient between high pressure N of the area and the Colombian low is supporting fresh to strong winds in the central Caribbean as well as in the lee of Cuba and the Windward Passage. Moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range W of 70W and 4-6 ft E of 70W. For the forecast, strong high pressure across the western Atlantic combined with the Colombian low will continue to support fresh to strong winds in the lee of Cuba, the Windward Passage, and the central Caribbean through Thu night, except through Sat night off Colombia. Otherwise, long period northerly swell will reach the NE Caribbean and the waters just E of the Leeward Islands, including the Atlantic passages, by Wed morning and gradually subside late Thu into Fri. Additional pulses of northerly swell will reach the same region late Fri into Sat. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... See Special Features section above for information on significant swell that will bring very rough seas to parts of the central Atlantic into mid-week. A frontal boundary extends from 31N47W to the Turks and Caicos Islands. Strong to near gale winds are W of the front to 57W, and within 120 nm N of the front W of 57W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere W of the front. Aside from the very rough seas greater than 12 ft, seas 8 ft or greater are found over much of the waters N of the bahamas as well as N of a line from 20N70W to 30N47W. Farther east, high pressure dominates the waters, anchored by a 1025 mb high centered near 34N26W. Fresh winds, and seas of 7-9 ft are from 07N to 17N off the coast of Africa to 25W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the front will gradually dissipate over the SE waters tonight into Wed. Strong winds and rough to very rough seas follow the front. These marine conditions will move E of the area on Wed as another cold front reaches the north waters. This second front will extend from 31N55W to the NW Bahamas by Thu morning. Strong winds and rough seas are also expected behind the front. A third cold front will move across the northern offshore waters on Fri.