Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Wed Jan 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant rainfall event: Moist onshore flow to the north of a weakening frontal boundary, extending from the E coast of Cuba to inland portions along the Honduras-Nicaragua border, will support heavy rainfall through late Thu, with 2 to 4 inches of rainfall possible primarily over northern Honduras, eastern Guatemala, and coastal Belize. In particular, strong moisture convergence behind the frontal boundary, where it intersects the hilly terrain over northwest Honduras, may create the potential for isolated areas of more than 8 inches of rainfall through late Thu, impacting various communities to include Tela, Puerto Cortes, and San Pedro Sula. Marine interests in the Gulf of Honduras should also be aware of the scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms through mid week. Please follow your local weather office for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough reaches the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea near 09N13W and continues southwestward to 03N17.5W. The ITCZ extends from 03N17.5W to the coast of Brazil near 02S45W. A surface trough is analyzed along 47W from 07N to the equator. Scattered moderate convection is observed from south of 07N and between 14W and 50W. GULF OF AMERICA... 1031 mb high pressure centered near the SE Louisiana-Mississippi border dominates the Gulf of America, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. However, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and rough seas of 7 to 9 ft are still occurring across the western Straits of Florida and in the Yucatan Channel, while seas of 6 to 8 ft are gradually subsiding across the Bay of Campeche. Cold air stratocumulus clouds are noted across much of the Gulf except over the offshore waters from Florida to Louisiana to SE Texas, where dry offshore flow has cleared the skies. For the forecast, moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds will prevail across the the southeastern half of the Gulf today before new high pressure moves to the NW Gulf coast this evening and shifts east-southeastward through Thu, which will freshen winds across the SE Gulf. Another strong cold front will reach the Texas coastal waters Thu night. This front is expected to move SE and reach from the Florida Big Bend to Veracruz by Fri night and move SE of the basin Sat afternoon. Strong high pressure behind this front will force strong to near gale-force northerly winds behind the front, with gale-force winds near Veracruz likely to begin Sat morning, then develop across the NE Gulf waters to offshore of central Florida Sat afternoon and evening. CARIBBEAN SEA... A stationary front extends from the east coast of Cuba to near the border of Honduras and Nicaragua, and inland. The pressure gradient between this front and the ridge over the Gulf of America is resulting in fresh to strong N-NE winds and rough seas to 11 ft over much of the NW Caribbean. A modest pressure gradient also exists in the south-central Caribbean, forcing fresh to strong NE winds to 30 kt and rough seas to 9 ft near and offshore of NW Colombia. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure across the N Gulf of America will begin to move E this evening through Fri. This will induce fresh to strong N winds across the NW Caribbean behind the front, and force it slowly eastward, reaching from E Cuba to the SE coast of Nicaragua Thu morning, then stall and begin to weaken from E Cuba to near the Nicaragua-Panama border Thu evening through Fri. An unusually strong cold front will move into the NW basin Sat morning and move southeastward, merging with the old lingering front from E Cuba to central Panama Sat evening, then reach from eastern Hispaniola to the NW coast of Colombia by Sun evening. Strong to near gale-force N winds are expected behind this front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 31N55W to the east coast of Cuba. A few showers are evident near this boundary. Moderate to locally fresh winds are behind the front, with 8 to 12 ft seas in NW to N swell east of 75W. Fresh to locally strong SW winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are within about 300 nm ahead of the front north of 29N. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a ridge extending from 1024 mb high pressure centered near 26N27W. Moderate to locally fresh easterly winds are noted south of 22N and east of 60W, where seas are 7 to 9 ft in mixed E and N swell. In the NE Atlantic, a stationary front extends from the coast of Morocco westward to 29N36W. No significant weather is associated with this feature. Large northerly swell spreads across the eastern Atlantic due to a strong low pressure well north of the area. Seas of 12 to 18 ft are found north of 21N and east of 40W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned front extending into Cuba will become stationary and weaken as it reaches from near 28N55W to the SE Bahamas and east Cuba this evening, then will meander across this area through Thu. New high pressure across the Gulf of America will build eastward into the W Atlantic and freshen winds behind the lingering front Thu through Thu evening. An unusually strong cold front will enter the western Atlantic waters on Sat. Associated low pressure is forecast to deepen rapidly across the NW Atlantic this weekend, inducing a large area of westerly gale-force winds across the local waters N of 24N Sat evening through Sun evening. The front is expected to reach from 31N74W to eastern Cuba Sat evening, and from 31N62W to eastern Hispaniola Sun evening.