Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Jan 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... GULF OF AMERICA GALE WARNING: A strong cold front will move off Texas early Sat morning, then race southeastward through the Gulf. Strong to near-gale N winds behind the front are going to spread across the western and north- central Gulf. These winds will peak at gale to strong-gale force offshore Tampico by Saturday afternoon, then spread to offshore Veracruz by Saturday evening. Winds offshore Tampico should drop below Gale force on Saturday night but will persist offshore Veracruz and the western Bay of Campeche into Monday morning. Seas are expected to peak between 14 and 20 ft under the strongest winds, highest offshore Veracruz. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites - https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough stays mostly over the Africa Continent. An ITCZ stretches westward from just west of Liberia at 04N20W across 04N40W to 02N51W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted near and up to 150 nm north of the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features section above on a upcoming Gale Warning. A broad surface ridge extends westward from central Florida to near Tampico, Mexico. Fresh with locally strong SE to S winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft are present at the west-central Gulf. Gentle to moderate SE winds with 1 to 3 ft seas are noted at the far eastern Gulf. Moderate with locally fresh SE to S winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft prevail for the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, winds across the west-central Gulf will diminish to between moderate and locally fresh by early Fri, joining the rest of the Gulf. A strong cold front is forecast to exit the Texas coast late Fri night. Strong to near-gale force N winds following the front will rapidly reach gale to strong-gale off Tampico and Veracruz, read the Special Features section for more detail. The front will exit the basin Mon morning, and conditions in the southwestern Gulf will gradually improve Mon night into Tue. Tranquil conditions are expected across the Gulf by late Tue night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A 1021 mb high northeast of the Bahamas is sustaining a trade-wind regime across much of the Caribbean Sea. Fresh to strong NE trades and seas of 6 to 9 ft are evident at the south-central basin. Moderate to fresh ENE to E winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are seen at the north-central and part of the southwestern basin, including the lee of Cuba and near the Windward Passage. Gentle to moderate ENE to ESE winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft prevail elsewhere in the Caribbean Sea. For the forecast, strong to near-gale force NE to E winds will pulse offshore of northwestern Colombia through Sun night due to tight gradient between the aforementioned high and low pressure over northern Colombia, then fresh to locally strong there afterwards. Rough seas to 11 ft will occur within these winds. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are forecast elsewhere in the central and southwestern Caribbean, including the Windward Passage and Hispaniola adjacent waters. Locally strong winds will be likely pulsing at night over the Windward Passage and south of Hispaniola through Sat night, with similar winds pulsing in the lee of Cuba Sat night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds will prevail, except for moderate to fresh winds near the Gulf of Honduras beginning tonight and continuing into Sat. A decaying cold front may move into or near the far northwestern Caribbean early next week. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A weakening cold front extends southwestward from the north- central Atlantic across 31N40W to 30N42W, then continues as a stationary front to near 27N50W. A surface trough curves southwestward from 27N50W to near 23N61W. Widely scattered showers are occurring near and up to 100 nm southeast of the cold/stationary front. Similar conditions also exist farther southeast, north of 24N between 31W and 39W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen up to 50 nm along either side of the trough. Refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section for additional weather in the Atlantic Basin. A 1021 mb high near 28N71W and its related ridge are supporting light to gentle winds with 2 to 5 ft seas north of 24N and west of 50W, except gentle to moderate NE winds near the southeast Bahamas, and Turks and Caicos Islands. Farther east, north of 20N between 35W and 50W, gentle to moderate with locally fresh SE winds and seas at 6 to 9 ft exist. For the tropical Atlantic from 04N to 20N and west of 35W, moderate with locally fresh ENE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are visible. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds with 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed moderate swells privately. For the forecast west of 55W, the aforementioned high will support moderate to fresh NE winds across the waters east of the Bahamas, the Great Bahama Bank and the approaches to the Windward Passage from tonight through Sun, locally strong near the Windward Passage. A new cold front will emerge off the northeastern Florida coast Sun. Fresh to strong NW winds and rough seas will follow this front, which is forecast to reach from Bermuda to the northern Bahamas by Mon morning and dissipate Mon night into Tue.