Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Fri Nov 28 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1050 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough remains mostly confined to the African continent. The ITCZ extends westward from 08N15W to 08N35W to 07N51W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 15N between 18W and 52W. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered heavy showers and isolated strong thunderstorms across the Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia offshore waters. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Scattered showers prevail across the SW and SE Gulf in the wake of a cold front, which tail still reaches the Bay of Campeche. Also with strong high pressure of 1031 mb located over Arkansas, which ridge is building across the Gulf in the wake of the front, a tight pressure gradient is resulting in the continuation of fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 10 ft across the basin, except the NW Gulf. Over the NW Gulf, winds are moderate to locally fresh mainly from the east, and seas are moderate to 7 ft. For the forecast, the tail of the cold front is expected to exit completely the Gulf this morning. Fresh to strong NE winds will follow in the wake of the cold front, with conditions improving tonight through Sat. Fresh to strong return flow will set up in the NW Gulf tonight and Sat, ahead of the next front. This next cold front will emerge off the Texas coast early Sun morning and meander slowly southeastward across the NW and N central Gulf Sun through Mon before moving southeastward Mon night and Tue. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front extending from western Cuba to the NE Yucatan Peninsula is followed by fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas to 10 ft. Scattered showers are also ahead of the front mainly affecting the Yucatan Channel and the Gulf of Honduras. A high pressure system over the north central Atlantic continues to tighten the pressure gradient in the central Caribbean, leading to the continuation of fresh to near gale force winds in the SW basin and portions of the central Caribbean. Elsewhere, trades are moderate to fresh and seas are moderate. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the central Atlantic and lower pressure over the SW Caribbean will sustain strong to near gale-force trades over the SW and south-central Caribbean, including the Gulf of Venezuela, through later this morning before diminishing in the afternoon hours. Moderate to fresh trades are expected elsewhere in the eastern and central basin through Sun. The cold front is expected to stall from central Cuba to the Yucatan Peninsula this evening, then gradually lift N of the area on Sat. A very weak pressure gradient across the region Mon and Tue will lead to tranquil marine conditions. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front across the NW waters extends from 31N71W to Andros Island to W Cuba and is followed by fresh NW to N winds. The front is also supporting scattered showers ahead and behind it, between Freeport in the Bahamas and 67W. The remainder central and eastern subtropical Atlantic is under the influence of strong high pressure just west of the Azores. A weakening stationary front extending from 31N35W to 27N48W along with a pair of surface troughs ahead of the front, are supporting moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds across the central and eastern subtropics along with moderate seas. For the forecast west of 55W, the pressure gradient between a 1030 mb high over the central Atlantic and low pressure across the SW Caribbean will sustain fresh E winds south of 25N and in the approach to the Windward Passage through the weekend. The cold front will move southeastward and extend from 31N64W through the central Bahamas tonight, and then dissipate from 31N58W the NW Bahamas by Sun morning. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of the front will produce increasing NE winds across much of the forecast area Sat, diminishing from west to east Sun. Fresh to strong SE winds will develop across the N and central Florida offshore waters by Mon night ahead of the next cold front forecast to come off the NE Florida coast Tue evening.