Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Feb 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western and Central Atlantic Gale Warnings... A Strong Cold Front: A strong cold front stretches southwestward from a 1002 mb low off the Carolinas across 31N74W to beyond the central Bahamas. Near- gale to gale-force W to NW winds with 11 to 14 ft seas are found near the cold front, north of 27N between 72W and 76W. This area of gale-force winds and rough seas will shift eastward through Friday night, with winds reaching strong-gale force and seas building to between 12 and 16 ft Fri morning. Afterward, they should lift north of 31N near 45W on Saturday. A Deepening Low Pressure: A low pressure system enters into the Atlantic off the North Carolina coast on Fri, then rapidly deepen as it tracks eastward into the western Atlantic. It will produce a large area of westerly gale-force winds north of 27N between 62W and 72W. Seas will peak at 12 to 18 ft. These winds and seas are going to move eastward, to north of 26N between 54W and 70W on Sun with seas build higher to between 22 and 30 ft. Once the low has pulled farther northeastward into the north-central Atlantic, wind conditions should gradually improve starting Sun night, while the large and dangerous swells persist into early next week. Central Atlantic Significant Swell Event... Seas at 12 to 14 ft in large NW swell, north of 24N and east of 44W will continue to slide eastward through tonight, and shift east of 35W by early Fri morning. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details on all three events above. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... A monsoon trough enters the Atlantic along the coast of Liberia near Monrovia, then curves southwestward to 00N12W. An ITCZ continues west-southwestward from 00N12W across 03S20W to northwest of Natal, Brazil at 05S36W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring south of the monsoon trough from 00N to 05N and east of 11W. Widely scattered moderate convection is seen up to 50 nm along either side of ITCZ. The eastern end of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms across the Caribbean waters near northwestern Colombia and eastern Panama. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1027 mb high emerging into northwestern Gulf is supporting the western and central Gulf with gentle to moderate N to ENE winds and seas at 3 to 7 ft. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and seas of 9 to 11 ft prevail for the eastern Gulf. For the forecast, marine conditions will continue to improve overnight from west to east as high pressure builds across the Gulf. Mostly moderate to fresh NW winds will follow another cold front that will move across the eastern Gulf Sat and Sun. High pressure will build over the northern Gulf in the wake of the front and remain in control of the weather pattern across the basin through early next week. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A cold front curves southwestward from central Cuba to over northern Belize and Mexico. Scattered showers are seen up to 150 nm southeast of this front. Fresh to strong northerly winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are trapped behind the cold over the northwestern basin. Strong to near-gale northerly winds and seas at 8 to 10 ft are found at the southwest of of the basin. For the forecast, the front will stall from the eastern Dominican Republic to central Panama Sat, then dissipate by Sun. Fresh to strong N winds with rough seas will follow the front into Sun. Expect fresh to strong NE winds and rough seas between Colombia and Hispaniola early next week as high pressure builds north of the area following the front ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see the Special Features section for details on two Gale Warnings and Significant Swell. A strong cold front stretches southwestward from a 1002 mb low off the Carolinas across 31N74W to beyond the central Bahamas. Scattered moderate convection are seen up to 150 nm east of the front. Farther east, a weakening cold front extends westward from near the Canary Islands to near 22N32W, then as a stationary front to 25N52. Patchy showers are present up to 50 nm along either side of this boundary. Refer to the monsoon trough/ITCZ section for additional convection in the CAribbean Sea. Outside the Gale Warning, strong to near-gale SW to NW winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft are noted north of 24N and west of 60W. To the east, north of 20N between 35W and 60W, moderate to fresh with locally strong southerly winds and 6 to 9 ft are evident. For the tropical Atlantic from 04N to 20N and west of 35W, moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft prevail. For the remainder of the Atlantic Basin west of 35W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds with 5 to 7 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, the front will reach from Bermuda to the Windward Passage Fri morning, from 25N55W to eastern Hispaniola Sat morning, before stalling and weakening from 22N55W to the Leeward Islands by early Sun. Gale-force winds and rough to very rough seas behind the front will continue spreading eastward across the waters on Fri. A reinforcing front will move off the northeast Florida coast early Sat, and reach from 31N55W to the southern Bahamas and central Cuba by early Sun, then stall and dissipate along 22N through early next week. Strong to gale-force winds will follow the second front north of 27N this weekend. Wave heights will gradually subside from west to east early next week