Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Thu Nov 20 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0442 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 14N17W to 07N26W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 09N52W. Scattered moderate convection prevails from 03N to 11N and E of 27W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A broad surface ridge continues to dominate much of the Gulf. Moderate E winds and moderate seas are present across the Florida Straits. Light to gentle winds and slight seas are found at the northeastern Gulf. Gentle to moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas dominate the rest of the Gulf. For the forecast, mainly moderate E to SE winds and slight to moderate seas will occur over the basin into the weekend as high pressure prevails over the northeastern Gulf and southeastern U.S. Locally fresh NE winds will pulse offshore of the Yucatan Peninsula and into the eastern Bay of Campeche each afternoon and evening. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong SE winds may develop over the northwestern Gulf for the start of next week as low pressure strengthens in the south- central U.S. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is producing isolated moderate convection over the eastern Caribbean, including the Mona Passage and Lesser Antilles. The eastern extension of the East Pacific monsoon trough is triggering scattered showers and thunderstorms along the Caribbean coast of Panama mainly S of 12N. Fresh to locally strong NE trade winds and rough seas are evident at the south-central basin. Gentle to moderate NE to E trade winds with moderate seas prevail elsewhere, except for fresh winds over the Windward Passage and the offshore waters of central-Cuba. For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh E to NE winds are expected over the Caribbean through this weekend as a moderate pressure gradient prevails between high pressure to the north and low pressure in the south-central basin. Locally strong winds and rough seas will pulse offshore of Colombia tonight, and again starting this weekend. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... A stationary front extends west-southwestward from a weak 1019 mb low near 31N55W, then it has begun to dissipate from 28N69W to the northern Bahamas. In addition, a surface trough extends from the same low southward to 22N53W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is found along these features. This activity is also supported by an upper- level low in the area. Another surface trough is producing scattered moderate convection from 24N to 27N between 39W and 44W. To the east, a cold front curves southwestward from the northeastern Atlantic across 31N21W to 30N34W. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas are noted north of 25N between 65W and the Florida/Bahamas. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast west of 55W, moderate to occasionally fresh NE winds are expected north of Hispaniola and Cuba and into the Bahamas through Fri as high pressure prevails over the southeastern U.S. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere into the weekend. Looking ahead, increasing SW winds and building seas may occur offshore of northern Florida this weekend ahead of a cold front moving off the southeastern U.S.