Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Feb 17 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Large NW Swell: Large NW swell continues to move southeastward across the NW and north-central waters this evening, behind and just ahead of a cold front which extends from the far northern Gulf of California to off Baja California Norte near Punta Eugenia, then to near 16N136W. Seas of 12 ft and greater have reached as far S as 22N to the W of 119W, with peak seas currently around 18 ft near 30N130W. Very rough seas of 12 ft and greater will continue to propagate southeastward tonight, then begin to slowly subside, with seas 12 ft and greater N of 23N and W of 118W by early Tue. Seas will then continue to subside to less than 12 ft Tue evening, before new N swell enters the northern waters by early Wed, raising seas above 12 ft across the waters N of 27N between 117W and 139W by Wed evening, and spreading southward through midnight Wed before beginning to slowly subside through Thu. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 09N84.5W to 01N98W. The ITCZ extends from 01N98W to 00N110W to 02N125W to beyond 02N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 11N between 126W and 137W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front stretches from the far northern Gulf of California to across Baja California Norte to offshore near Punta Eugenia. Fresh to near gale-force SW winds are in the northern Gulf of California ahead of the front, with fresh to strong winds behind the front offshore Baja California Norte. Building seas in rough to very rough NW swell are arriving behind the front. Fresh to strong N gap winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters with moderate seas, except slight seas in the central and southern Gulf of California. For the forecast, a cold front from the far northern Gulf of California to off Baja California Norte near Punta Eugenia will reach from NW Mexico across central portions of the Gulf of California and Baja California to near 20N120W by Tue morning. Fresh to strong S to SW winds ahead of the front will move into the nearshore waters of Baja Norte this evening and prevail across the northern Gulf of California this evening through midday Tue. High pressure will build in across the area waters in the wake of the front Tue through Fri, producing fresh to locally strong northerly winds nearshore Baja California to near Cabo Corrientes Wed through Thu night. Strong to near gale-force W to SW winds will develop again across the northern Gulf of California early Wed through Wed evening, then again Thu night into early Fri due to localized troughing. NW swell will continue to build across the waters of Baja California this evening through Wed, then become reinforced Wed night through the end of the week, decaying during the upcoming weekend. Fresh to strong winds will continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this evening through midday Tue before diminishing, then become onshore Wed through Sat. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh offshore gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region, while gentle to moderate northerly winds are occurring across the Gulf of Panama and veer NE and pass south of the Azuero Peninsula. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 4 ft offshore Colombia, and 3 to 5 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and moderate seas will pulse across the Papagayo region starting tonight as high pressure builds across Central America from the north, continuing through early Thu, then become moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate N to NE winds will pulse to locally fresh from the Gulf of Panama to south of the Azuero Peninsula through mid- week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will change little through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on significant NW swell forecast for the northern waters. A cold front extends from the far northern Gulf of California to off Baja California Norte near Punta Eugenia, then to near 16N136W. Fresh to strong W-NW winds are N of 27N and W of the front. Fresh to strong NE trades are found from 14N to 20N between 130W and 140W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the remainder of the open waters. Rough seas are W of a line from 30N116W to 20N128W to 14N140W with very rough seas as described above. Seas are moderate elsewhere. For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move eastward tonight, with fresh to strong winds behind it, and will reach from near Punta Abreojos to 13N130W by Tue morning. Winds N of 20N behind the front will gradually diminish from W to E tonight through Tue as the front weakens and continues moving eastward, before gradually dissipating late Tue. High pressure will build in the wake of the front Tue through Fri as a low to middle- level disturbance develops S of 20N and near 140W. This scenario will produce a broad area of fresh to strong trades N of the ITCZ to near 24N and W of 128W late Tue through early Fri. Expect active showers and thunderstorms, with rough to very rough seas in NW swell to accompany these increasing trades.