Tropical Weather Discussion...Update

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Tropical Weather Discussion...Update NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun May 17 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. Updated Offshore Waters Forecast Paragraphs ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Northern Gulf of California Gale Warning: Fresh to locally strong S to SW gap winds at the northern Gulf of California will quickly increase to between near-gale and gale- force this evening through midnight tonight. Seas are expected to build to around 9 ft under these winds. Conditions will improve Mon morning with moderate winds and seas by Mon afternoon. Significant Swell Event West of Baja California Norte: Very large, long-period NW swell is causing very rough seas of 12 to 16 ft, north of 27N between 117W and 127W, including waters near Guadalupe Island. This swell will continue to propagate southward through this evening, causing very rough seas to reach near 26N late tonight. As the NW swell gradually decay and retreat northward Mon through Mon night, seas should subside below 12 ft late Mon night. For both events above, please refer to the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends west-southwestward from near the coastal border of Costa Rica and Panama to 05N95W. An ITCZ continues from 05N95W across 06N120W to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is seen near the monsoon trough from 02N to 12N east of 93W, including offshore waters of Nicaragua, Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia. Similar convection is present near the ITCZ from 03N to 09N west of 133W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident near the rest of the ITCZ from 03N to 10N between 93W and 132W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above regarding a brief episode of gale winds in the northern Gulf of California tonight, and for details on a late-season significant swell event for waters west of Baja California Norte. Aside from the expected gale conditions in the northern Gulf of California and the significant swell for west of Baja California, the same tight pressure gradient between strong high pressure west of Baja California and relatively lower pressure in Baja California associated to a thermal trough will lead to fresh to strong northwest winds over the offshore waters west of Baja California Norte through tonight before diminishing, and moderate to fresh northwest winds west of Baja California Sur also through tonight. Seas are expected to build to around 16 ft over the offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia Sun and Sun night and to around 13 ft south of Punta Eugenia through early on Mon as a set of long-period northwest to north swell moves through those waters as described above under Special Features. Moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are over the central Gulf of California, while light to gentle variable winds are over the southern portion. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the central portion and 3 to 5 ft over the southern portion. Light to gentle winds along with seas of about 3 to 5 ft in long-period south to southwest swell are over the rest of the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, After the gap wind and significant swell events, gentle to moderate winds and seas should return to the Gulf of California by Mon afternoon, and waters west of Baja California Peninsula by Tue afternoon. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will dominate the rest offshore waters through midweek. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds are in the Papagayo region. Seas with these winds are 5 to 7 ft. Otherwise, a rather weak pressure pattern is maintaining light to gentle southwest to west winds south of the monsoon trough, and light to gentle northwest to north winds north of the trough. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in long-periosd south to southwest swell over these waters. For the forecast, fresh NE to E gap winds in the Papagayo region will pulse to strong, along with locally rough seas at night through Wed night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds along with moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through midweek. Numerous showers and thunderstorms, some with strong gusty winds and heavy rain producing low visibilities, will remain over the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia through at least Mon. At the same time, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over the offshore waters of Nicaragua. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge stretches southeastward from a strong 1034 mb high center that is located well north of the area near 39N138W to near 19N115W. This feature continues to dominate the wind pattern north of the ITCZ. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds are over the northeast part of the area along with seas of 8 to 12 ft in large northwest swell. Overnight scatterometer data passes depict fresh trades generally from 08N to 26N west of about 133W, and also from 08N to 23N between 120W and 133W. Seas over these waters are 7 to 9 ft, as noted in altimeter satellite data passes, in mixed northeast and northwest long-period swell. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds are south of the ITCZ, where seas are 5 to 7 ft per latest altimeter satellite data passes. For the forecast, the previously described ridge will move little through late tonight maintaining a tight pressure gradient roughly over the waters north of 27N between 120W and 130W and keeping the fresh to strong northwest to north winds over this same area until Mon morning. The seas of 7 to 9 ft will begin to slowly diminish in coverage starting Tue.