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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jun 14 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Dalila is centered near 16.5.9N 104.8W at 1500 UTC, moving northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Seas of 12 ft and greater extend outward to 150 nm to the northeast, and along the Mexican coast, and up to 300 nm across the southeast quadrant. Peak seas are estimated at 22 ft. Bands of numerous moderate to strong convection extend from the Mexican coast along 19N southward to 13.5N and between 98W and 109W, or between eastern coastal Guerrero and the coast of southern Jalisco. A northwest motion at around 10 kt is expected today through Sun morning, with slight strengthening. A gradual turn toward the west, and gradual weakening is then expected Sunday through Mon, with Dalila expected to become a 30 kt post tropical storm near 18.1N 112W Mon morning. On the forecast track, the center of Dalila is forecast to move parallel to, but remain offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Please refer to the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest T.S. Dalila NHC Forecast Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical waves has entered the eastern portions of the area overnight and this morning, and is currently analyzed along 87W, moving westward near 10 kt. A 1012 mb surface low has develop along the monsoon trough near 10.5N87W, and near the wave axis. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted near the wave, from 06N to 12N between 84.5W and 92W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N73W to 12N81.5W to low pres near 10.5N87W 1012 mb to 14N98W, then resumes west of T.S. Dalila near 13N108W to 09N134W. The ITCZ extends from 09N134W to beyond 08N140W. Aside from the convection associated with T.S. Dalila, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 02.5N between 78W and 82.5W, and from 08N to 10N between 117W and 131W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 06N to 12N between 84.5W and 100W, and from 09.5N to 13N between 100W and 115W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Dalila, located a few hundred miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Broad cyclonic flow associated with Dalila dominates the SW Mexican offshore waters, from just offshore of Manzanillo to the waters of central Guerrero. Seas to 12 ft associated with Dalila have reach the coast across much of this area. Elsewhere, a broad and weak ridge extends from a 1027 mb high centered well NW of the area near 40N138W to near 22N118W. This pattern continues to support gentle to moderate NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja California where seas are 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. Light to gentle winds are ongoing in the Gulf of California with seas less than 3 ft, except in the entrance of the Gulf where seas are 4 to 5 ft in S swell. Light to gentle winds are also across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas across these eastern waters from Oaxaca to Chiapas are 8 to 10 ft in S to SW swell and waves from Dalila. For the forecast, T.S. Dalila is expected to continue moving NW at around 10 kt today through Sun morning, and gradually strengthen to 55 kt, and will continue to brush the Mexican coastline. Dalila is expected to reach near 17.9N 108.2W Sun morning, reach near 18.1N 112W Mon morning as a 30 kt post tropical remnant low, then continue to weaken and reach near 18.2N 115.5W Tue morning, before continuing westward and dissipating by Wed morning. Moderate-sized cross-equatorial southerly swell will mix with seas generated from Dalila to impact the waters between Tehuantepec and Cabo Corrientes through Sun. Elsewhere, high pressure well northwest of the area will support generally moderate to locally fresh N-NW winds across the Baja California offshore waters through Wed. NW to N swell will build into the Baja waters Sun through Wed. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A tropical wave moving across Central America along 87W is described above, and contributing to active weather across much of the waters of Costa Rica and Nicaragua, likely producing strong gusty winds and rough seas. Onshore W to SW winds prevail across most of the area S of 12N. Strong cross-equatorial southerly swell continues to dominate area waters, with seas of 7 to 9 ft. This swell event has peaked overnight, and seas have begun to diminish slightly between Ecuador and the Galapagos, where seas 6 to 8 ft prevail. For the forecast, large s to SW swell will slowly subside through early next week. Tropical Storm Dalila located south of Manzanillo, Mexico will move NW through early Sun then turn more W-NW and weaken Sun through Tue. SW swell from this system will continue to impact the waters of El Salvador and Guatemala today. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain active across the Central America waters over the weekend and into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Dalila, located a few hundred nautical miles south of Manzanillo, Mexico. Broad and weak ridging dominates the waters north of 13N, centered on a 1027 mb high near 40N138W. This pattern is supporting mostly moderate N to NE winds north of 10N and west of 120W, with 5 to 7 ft seas in a mix of N and S swell. Southerly swell of 8 to 10 ft is slowly subsiding between 90W and 115W, where seas are 7 to 9 ft. Elsewhere moderate to fresh SW winds persist south of the monsoon trough between 100W and 115W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in S swell elsewhere west of 120W. In the forecast, little change is expected west of 120W except for increased NW swell north of 28N and east of 130W today through Wed. Conditions east of 120W and associated with T.S. Dalila are described in the Special Features section above, and will be dominated by large SW swell through tonight, and mixed E to SE swell generated by Dalila. Dalila is forecast to spin down to a 20 kt remnant low by Wed morning near 18.2N 115.5W.