Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Feb 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure building across the eastern slopes of Mexico and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting gale- force northerly winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, recent ASCAT scatterometer data showing 30-40 kt winds across a large area. The gale-force winds are forecast to continue through Sat night, potentially peaking at 45 kt tonight. Rough to very rough seas will accompany these winds, peaking around 20 ft tonight. Strong to near gale-force winds will then prevail there into early next week. Significant W-NW Swell Event: Rough seas of 12 ft or greater cover the waters NW of a line from 30N131W to 17N140W and are currently peaking near 17 ft at 30N139W. These very rough seas will propagate southeast to cover the waters west of a line from 30N124W to 13N135W by early Fri. Seas will then gradually subside to just below 12 ft by early Sat, when a large area of seas 8 ft or greater covers much of the waters west of 110W, with those remnant seas decaying by early next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08.5N78W to 07N84W to 03N102W to 04N108W. The ITCZ extends from 04N108W to 05.5N120W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 77W and 85W, from 03N to 06N between 85W and 88W, and from 10N to 14N between 104W and 117W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate NW-N winds are noted in the southern Gulf of California to southeast of the entrance of the Gulf. Otherwise, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas, except slight to moderate in the Gulf of California. For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a set of large NW swell will enter the waters off Baja California Norte the end of the week, spreading across the waters W of 100W during the upcoming weekend before decaying, with another set arriving off Baja California Norte early next week. Winds may pulse to moderate fresh from near the southern Gulf of California and Cabo San Lucas to near Cabo Corrientes at times due to a locally tight pressure gradient, with similar winds at times near Cabo San Lazaro. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail, except fresh to strong over the far offshore waters of Guatemala due to an expanding Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event. Seas across those same waters are rough. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through the upcoming weekend and into early next week. Winds may reach minimal gale-force during the upcoming weekend due to a similar weather pattern as the recent gale-force gap wind event. Rough seas will accompany these winds. A gale- force gap wind event in Tehuantepec will produce rough seas well offshore the western Guatemala and El Salvador waters through Fri night. Moderate to fresh northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Panama will pulse for the remainder of the week, then may increase to fresh to strong this weekend into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A Significant W-NW Swell is over the NW waters. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. Aside from the large swells discussed above, gentle to moderate winds with moderate seas in mixed swell prevail. For the forecast, aside from the large W-NW swells described in the Special Features, high pressure is forecast to build over the waters north of 20N Fri through the upcoming weekend and into early next week, with fresh to strong trades possible from 07N to 20N and west of 110W. Those winds should diminish somewhat Tue as another cold front impacts the NW waters. That cold front may move southeast of 30N140W early next week ushering in fresh to strong winds and reinforcing NW swells in the NW corner of the waters behind it. Meanwhile, rough seas are possible over the open waters west of the Gulf of Papagayo and south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec late in the week and into the weekend, with the next gale-force gap wind events possible there.