Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Jun 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1400 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 99.5W extending from 02N to 16.5N just offshore SW Mexico, moving westward at around 15 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 12N between 100W and 107W. Similar convection is noted from 08.5N to 14N between 93W and 100W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 80W extending from 03N northward to across Panama and into the SW Caribbean Sea, moving westward at around 15 kt. Nearby convection is described with the monsoon trough below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the SW Caribbean Sea to across Costa Rica, reaching from the Gulf of Papagayo at 11N86W to 12N93W to 09N100W to 10N111W to 08.5N119W to low pressure, Invest EP93, near 10.5N134.5W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13.5N between 77W and 93W, and from 08.5N to 13N between 135W and 137W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04.5N to 07N between 114W and 116W, from 02N to 03.5N between 118.5W and 120.5W, and from 02N to 06.5N between 129W and 131.5W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends along the northern Gulf of California into Baja California Sur. The pressure gradient between the trough and surface ridging to the west is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the Baja Peninsula offshores along with moderate seas to 7 ft in S-SW swell. In the Gulf of California, winds are gentle to moderate from the SSW and seas remain slight. A weak pressure gradient across the remainder discussion waters is supporting light to gentle winds, except locally moderate off SW Mexico, with moderate seas to 6 ft in S-SW swell. Active convection is present from near the Gulf of Tehuantepec southwestward as described above with a passing tropical wave. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the waters of Baja California, pulsing to locally fresh speeds at night. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds are expected inside the Gulf of California and near the tip of Baja California Sur, reaching to locally fresh speeds Wed into early Thu. Light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Tehunatepec. Moderate seas in mainly southerly swell will prevail through the next several days, slight in the Gulf of California. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate E to SE winds are ongoing Offshore Gulf of Papagayo along with moderate seas to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds are found between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador with moderate seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds are found elsewhere with slight to moderate seas. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers and tstms are across the offshore waters from Panama northwestward as described within the monsoon trough section above. Winds and seas may be higher in and near these areas of deep convection. For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail across the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Sat night. Moderate winds will pulse to fresh in diurnal offshore flow in the immediate Gulf of Papagayo Fri night and Sat night. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in SW swell are forecast elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1008 mb low, Invest EP93, is centered well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands near 10.5N134.5W with nearby convection described above within the monsoon trough section above. Moderate to fresh winds are within 240 nm northern semicircle and 120 nm SE quadrant of the low center. Moderate to rough seas to 8 ft are also within that distance from the low center with the highest seas being in the NW quadrant. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail, locally rough near the monsoon trough E of 105W. For the forecast, some slight development of the low pressure system, Invest EP93, is still possible over the next day or so, although the possibility of formation is diminishing as the system moves into an increasingly drier mid-level airmass. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds, and moderate seas will prevail, except seas building to rough south of and near the Equator and east of 120W in new southerly swells tonight and early Wed through the end of the week. Winds may pulse to fresh in the west-central waters at times. Looking ahead, yet another set of southerly swell may build seas to rough over the same area during the upcoming weekend.