Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jul 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Genevieve is centered near 16.6N 113.9W at 27/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 934 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 130 kt with gusts to 160 kt. Peak seas are near 43 ft or 13 m. Numerous strong convection is noted within 75 nm in the E semicircle, and within 60 nm in the W semicircle. Numerous moderate convection is noted elsewhere within 210 nm of the center, except within 150 nm in the NW quadrant. Genevieve is moving toward the northwest. A west-northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Genevieve is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in intensity are possible this afternoon, but steady weakening is forecast to begin by tonight through the remainder of the week. Swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and southern portions of the Baja California Peninsula, and will spread northward along the remainder of the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula by tonight. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Genevieve NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 99W, south of 15N just off the coast of southwestern Mexico, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 09.5N between 99W and 103W, and from 10N to 15N between 99W and 102W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 1010 mb low pressure over northern Colombia at 10N75.5W to 07N11W to 09N87W to 07N98W to 11N107.5W, then resumes SW of Genevieve from 10.5N114.5W to 04N129W to 05N138W. The ITCZ extends from 05N138W to beyond 05N140W. Other than the convection mentioned with Genevieve and the tropical wave above, scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 77W and 92W, within 30 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 114.5W and 125W, and from 00N to 08N between 125W and 140W. Similar convection is noted within 180 nm of the coast of Mexico between 100W and 110W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Major Hurricane Genevieve, currently located SSW of the Revillagigedo Islands, along with any associated convection. Please refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections above for information about additional convection in the region. Away form the impacts of Genevieve, moderate to locally fresh NW winds associated with high pressure building in from the northwest are impacting waters N and W of Guadalupe Island. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail. Seas are slight in the Gulf of California, and moderate in the remaining offshore waters. For the forecast, Hurricane Genevieve will move to 17.5N 115.0W Tue morning, 18.2N 116.6W Tue afternoon, 18.7N 118.2W Wed morning, 19.3N 119.8W Wed afternoon, 20.1N 121.8W Thu morning, and 21.0N 124.2W Thu afternoon. Genevieve will weaken to a tropical storm over 22.6N 129.3W Fri afternoon. Large seas associated with Genevieve will finally pull away from the offshore waters of Baja California by the end of the week. Elsewhere, areas of fresh mainly westerly gap winds are likely tonight through Wed night nearshore Baja California and also in the Gulf of California as high pressure builds southward to the west of the Baja California Peninsula, with locally fresh to strong SE winds in the northern Gulf late tonight, likely due to convection moving off mainland Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section above for information about convection in the region. High pressure northeast of the area is forcing fresh easterly gap winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent, except locally rough south-southwest of the Galapagos Islands in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong NE to E gap winds along with locally rough seas will pulse across the Papagayo region through the period. Pulsing moderate to fresh north winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama at times through mid-week. Locally rough seas in SW swell southwest of the Galapagos Islands will subside by early Tue. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in southwest swell are expected across the remainder of the waters through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Major Hurricane Genevieve. Hurricane Fausto continues to move away from the tropical eastern Pacific. Fresh E winds and rough seas up to 11 ft continue to impact waters from 18N to 27N west of 138W. Elsewhere, for waters not being impacted by Fausto or Genevieve, 1026 mb high pressure centered near 33N136W dominates. Moderate to fresh trade winds are across the remainder of the waters from 08N to 20N and west of 130W, and from 20N to 30N west of 120W. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, Hurricane Genevieve will move to 17.5N 115.0W Tue morning, 18.2N 116.6W Tue afternoon, 18.7N 118.2W Wed morning, 19.3N 119.8W Wed afternoon, 20.1N 121.8W Thu morning, and 21.0N 124.2W Thu afternoon. Genevieve will weaken to a tropical storm over 22.6N 129.3W Fri afternoon. Hurricane Fausto will continue to weaken as it moves further away from the basin, with outer associated seas diminishing below 8 ft to the east of 140W late tonight. The rough seas over the south-central waters will gradually subside through early Tue. Little change in marine conditions is forecast across the remainder of the waters through the end of the week and into next weekend.