Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Jun 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 103W-104W, south of 17N, moving westward around 15 kt. Associated convection is about the ITCZ in this area and described below. Another tropical wave is near 124W from 18N southward, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 05N to 15N between 118W and 132W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 10N74.5W to 06N79.5W to 08.5N88W. The ITCZ continues from 08.5N88W to 09N102W, then from 09N105W to 12N122W, and from 06N132W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N E of 89W, and S of 06.5N W of 130W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N to 14.5N between 94W and 110W, and from 04N to 16N between 107W and 118W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends from strong high pressure located N of the Hawaiian Islands, southeastward through 30N138W to just N of the Revillagigedo Islands. This pressure pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in NW swell across the Baja California waters. Strong to gale force winds farther north and offshore of California are generating typical NW swell moving into the Baja waters, with seas to 8 ft across the far outer waters of Baja Norte. Inside the Gulf of California, fresh SW to W gap winds and 3 to 5 ft seas are present in the northern Gulf, while gentle to moderate SW to S winds and seas at 1 to 3 ft generally prevail across the rest of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds dominate the remaining waters from the Revillagigedo Islands to near Salina Cruz, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in primarily cross-equatorial S swell. A narrow plume of fresh N gap winds continues across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending offshore to near 14.5N. Seas are 6 to 7 ft across this area. For the forecast, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds and moderate to rough seas are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region from the nighttime to late morning hours each night and morning through Sat. Fresh to strong W to SW gap winds should pulse in the northern Gulf of California until before sunrise this morning, and again tonight through early Tue morning. Gentle to moderate with locally fresh NW to N winds and moderate seas will persist west of Baja California through the end of the week. NW swell will create rough seas at the far northwestern waters off Baja California Norte today through Tue evening. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds with 7 to 9 ft seas persist across the Papagayo region through central Nicaragua, and extend well offshore to near 91W. Moderate N winds with 4 to 6 ft seas are noted across the Gulf of Panama extending southward to 05N. Gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell prevail for the remainder central America and Colombia offshore waters N of 02N. Gentle to moderate S winds and 6 to 7 ft seas in cross- equatorial S swell dominate waters near the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Thunderstorms remain active this morning from 02N to 06N E of 89W. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and moderate to rough seas will continue across the Papagayo region throughout the week. NE to E swell generated by these winds are expected to create moderate to locally rough seas well downstream to near 90W. Farther south, cross-equatorial southerly swell should keep moderate to locally rough seas near the Galapagos Islands and off Ecuador until midweek. Sporadic heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will persist near the Colombia coast, spreading to south of Costa Rica and Panama by this evening. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge extending from N of the Hawaiian Islands southeastward through 30N138W to just N of the Revillagigedo Islands is supporting moderate to locally fresh NE winds and 5 to 8 ft seas to the N of the ITCZ and W of 118W. East of 118W and north of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate with locally fresh E to SE winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in mixed moderate swell prevail. Light to gentle winds and seas at 6 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swell are noted near and south of the ITCZ to near 04N. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds with 6 to 9 ft seas in cross- equatorial S to SE swell prevail south of 04N. Scattered to numerous convection remains active about a tropical wave and broad cyclonic low level circulation along 124W, as described above. For the forecast, gradual development of the tropical wave along 124W is possible during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form by the middle of this week while the system moves generally northwestward and then north- northwestward. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive by the end of the week. Regardless of development, a gradual increase of winds and seas are expected along the northern portion of this wave this week, as a broad high pressure ridge persists N of the area. Outside of this system, little change are anticipated north of the ITCZ for the next several days. South of the ITCZ, a gradual decrease in both winds and seas will occur by Wed.