Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jul 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Fausto is centered near 18.6N 131.2W at 24/1500 UTC, moving west at 14 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 967 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 17N to 21N between 128W and 133W. Seas peaking to 28 ft are expected in the area of strongest winds, and 12 ft seas or greater within 180 nm S semicircle, 270 nm NE quadrant and 240 nm NW quadrant. Swells generated by Fausto are affecting the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula and the coast of southern California. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Fausto is expected to gradually weaken during the next several days. Tropical Depression Seven-E is centered near 9.0N 100.5W at 24/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas to 11 ft are noted within the area of strongest winds. Scattered moderate to strong convection prevails from 04N to 15N between 94W and 109W. Significant strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The system is expected to become a tropical storm later today or tonight and could reach hurricane strength by late this weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories of both systems at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern extension of the tropical wave extends along 83W and N of 06N, moving W at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the wave axis, mainly E of 87W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 07N108W. The ITCZ is from 07N108W to 04N127W, then resumes near 08N132W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 240 nm on either side of the boundaries. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... In the wake of Fausto a ridge is building across the offshore waters of Baja California and to the Revillagigedo Islands. This pattern supports fresh to strong NW winds north of Punta Eugenia, and mainly gentle to moderate northwest to north winds between Punta Eugenia and Cabo San Lucas. Seas generating by Fausto are still spreading across the area, and mixing with the building northerly wind waves to produce seas 6 to 8 ft across the Baja waters, highest N of Punta Eugenia. Gentle to moderate NW to W winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, Tropical Depression Seven-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 9.3N 101.7W this evening, move to 10.5N 103.7W Sat morning, 11.7N 106.2W Sat evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 12.9N 108.5W Sun morning, 14.0N 110.5W Sun evening, and 15.3N 112.3W Mon morning. Seven-E will change little in intensity as it moves 17.2N 115.0W by early Tue. Otherwise, the pressure gradient between high pressure building in the wake of Fausto and a trough over the Gulf of California is producing fresh to strong north winds north of Punta Eugenia. These winds will diminish this afternoon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong north to northeast winds continue across the Papagayo region and extending downwind to near 91W, and northward to northwestern Nicaragua. Seas are 5 to 8 ft with these winds based on altimeter data. This is occurring behind a tropical wave with axis along 96W. The monsoon trough remains active across the offshore waters. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4 to 5 ft in S to SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east winds will pulse at night and into the morning hours across the Papagayo region well into next week. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas in SW swell will continue elsewhere. Seas associated with a developing tropical system near new may impact the offshore waters of Guatemala through Fri, building seas to around 9 ft. Cross-equatorial southerly swell will begin to reach the Galapagos Islands by early this evening and build through the weekend and into Mon before decaying Tue. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Fausto. Hurricane Fausto dominates conditions over the High Seas forecast waters roughly from 12N to 27N between 121W and 135W. Fresh to strong winds outside of the immediate circulation of Fausto extend northward to 24N, with seas to 8 ft reaching as far N of Fausto as 27N. A couple of altimeter passes also indicate that the 12 ft seas are reaching as far N as 26N. Elsewhere, a surface ridge dominates the waters between Baja California and Fausto, and also north of 15N west of about 130W. Moderate or weaker winds with moderate seas prevail. Southwest swell will begin to build seas over the equatorial waters west of 120W by early this evening. For the forecast, Hurricane Fausto Fausto will move to 18.7N 133.2W this evening, 19.0N 135.7W Sat morning, 19.4N 137.9W Sat evening, 19.8N 140.2W Sun morning, 20.1N 142.9W Sun evening, and weaken to a tropical storm near 20.3N 145.8W Mon morning. Fausto will change little in intensity as it moves to 21.0N 151.9 by early Tue. Please refer to the Special feature section for details on the next tropical cyclone forecast to develop well offshore of Mexico in the near future. The cross- equatorial swell will gradually build seas to 8 to 9 ft over the next few days.