Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Nov 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant NW Swell Event: A series of NW swell sets will continue to impact the waters N of about 05N for the next several days associated with the passage of several cold fronts. Currently, a cold front extends from 30N119W to 24.5N140W. Ahead of the front, and extending as far south of 05N and W of 110W, rough seas of 8 to 12 ft in decaying NW swell associated with a former front is ongoing. The period of this swell is 10 to 15 seconds. Behind the front, a reinforcing and larger set of NW swell with 16 to 20 second period continues to spread across the northern waters with peak seas around 24 ft, as noted on recent altimeter satellite data and buoy data. By this evening, the front is forecast to reach Baja California Norte N of Punta Eugenia to 23N130W while weakening, with rough seas of 12 to 20 ft spreading as far south as 15N with seas up to 24 ft N of 27N, and rough seas of 8 to 11 ft to 05N. These high energy waves will have a period of 13 to 20 seconds. These seas will keep spreading SE as yet another set with seas of 12 ft or greater arrives to near 30N140W by late tonight into early Sun, spreading across the majority of the waters into early next week. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/HSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from Costa Rica near 09N83.5W westward to 04N100W to 05N129W. The ITCZ extends from 05N129W to beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01S to 08N between 84W and 114W and from 08N to 12N W of 129W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent scatterometer satellite imagery indicate that moderate to locally fresh NW to W winds are occurring offshore of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro, ahead of a cold front moving through Southern California and into northern Baja. Rough seas of 8 to 12 ft are occurring offshore of the Baja peninsula and near the Revillagigedo Islands, as observed by recent altimeter data. In the Gulf of California, mainly moderate SW to NW winds and 2 to 4 ft seas are noted, along a trough axis that extends through the region. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas in NW swell prevail elsewhere over the Mexico offshore waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong N to NE winds and rough seas are expected to develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Mon evening. Winds will pulse to gale force Tue evening through the end of next week, and very rough seas over 12 ft will accompany these winds. Elsewhere, a new N to NW swell will support very rough seas offshore of Baja California Norte tonight, with peak seas of 12 to 20 ft expanding offshore of the whole peninsula through Sun. Seas may temporarily subside to 8 to 12 ft late Sun into early Mon before the next reinforcing swell event promotes seas of 8 to 16 ft through midweek. In addition, a cold front is expected to produce fresh to locally strong N to NW winds north of Cabo San Lazaro late Mon through midweek. Elsewhere, rough seas of 8 to 10 ft in NW swell will expand to offshore of southwestern Mexico Sun through early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Earlier scatterometer satellite data indicate that moderate NE winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Papagayo. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds are noted as a light pressure gradient prevails over the Central American offshore waters. Moderate seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed SW and NW swell prevail. For the forecast, moderate to occasionally fresh E to NE winds are expected to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo into early next week, with fresh to occasionally strong winds developing by Tue. Moderate N winds will also pulse in the Gulf of Panama through midweek. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Looking ahead, rough seas in N swell may develop well offshore of Guatemala by the middle of next week, prompted by gale force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, a set of NW swell may build seas to 8 ft or greater SSW of the Galapagos Islands by the middle of next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on a series of significant NW swell sets which will impact much of the open waters. A cold front extends from 30N119W to 24.5N140W. The pressure gradient between this front and the ITCZ in the deep tropics is supporting moderate to occasionally fresh NE winds, generally south of 20N and west of 115W. Significant NW swell is producing widespread rough seas in excess of 8 ft N of 05N over much of the open waters, with peak seas of 12 to 24 ft located north of 20N and west of 120W, as noted on recent buoy and altimeter data. Elsewhere, locally rough seas around 8 ft in mixed SW and NW swell are occurring near the equator offshore of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, a series of NW swell sets will continue to impact the waters N of about 05N for the next several days associated with the passage of several cold fronts. A reinforcing and larger set of NW swell with 16 to 20 second period continues to spread across the northern waters with peak seas around 24 ft. By this evening, the front is forecast to reach Baja California Norte N of Punta Eugenia to 23N130W while weakening, with rough seas of 12 to 24 ft spreading as far south as 15N, and rough seas of 8 to 11 ft to 05N. These high energy waves will have a period of 13 to 20 seconds. These seas will keep spreading SE as yet another set with seas of 12 ft or greater arrives to near 30N140W by late tonight into early Sun, spreading across the majority of the waters into early next week. In addition, fresh to strong N to NE winds are expected behind the passage of another cold front, generally north of 10N and west of 120W late Sun through the middle of next week.