Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Nov 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0940 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 07N110W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03S to 10N E of 92W, and from 03S to 14N between 116W and 136W. Scattered moderate convection is elsewhere from 00N to 10N between 93W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front extends across the central Gulf of California to El Batequi in Baja California Sur to 21N117W. Fresh to strong NW winds are N of the front with moderate seas to 6 ft. Aside from the northern Gulf of California, moderate NNW winds and moderate seas to 7 ft, are affecting the Baja California offshores N of Las Barrancas or N of 25N. Fresh to near gale force N to NE gap winds, and rough seas to 10 ft are over the the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas to 6 ft prevail, except slight seas over the central and southern Gulf of California, and moderate to locally fresh NW winds offshore Jalisco. For the forecast, fresh to strong N gap winds, and rough seas to 10 ft, over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will decrease by this afternoon. The cold front will continue to move across the Gulf of California and east of the area by early this afternoon. Fresh to strong NNW winds and moderate seas to 6 ft, over the northern Gulf of California N of the front will diminish to moderate speeds later this morning. High pressure will build in the wake of the front. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and low pressure over Mexico will support moderate to fresh northerly winds in the Gulf of California through Tue and offshore Baja California through Thu. Long period NW swell will build seas to 8 to 9 ft N of Cabo San Lazaro Tue night into Thu. New swell will enter the waters N of Punta Eugenia Fri night supporting rough seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE winds and seas of 7 ft are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo to near 91W. Moderate SSW winds are S of the Galapagos Islands between the coast of Ecuador and 93W. Higher winds and rough seas are likely offshore Ecuador where clusters of strong convection and tstms are present. Mainly light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are elsewhere. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers and tstms are across the offshore waters between Colombia and Costa Rica. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region will diminsh to moderate or weaker speeds by this evening. Low pressure may develop SW of Costa Rica tonight into Tue, and is forecast to bring an increiase in winds and seas over the waters off Costa Rica and Panama into Fri night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front extends across the central Gulf of California to El Batequi in Baja California Sur to 21N117W. A trailing weakening cold front extends across Baja California Norte from Tijuana SW to 28N122W to 29N128W. Moderate NNE winds are from 20N to 25N extending west of the Baja California offshores to 136W with slight to moderate seas. Long period NW swell is moving across the NW subtropical waters N of 24N and W of 134W ahead of a cold front. This is supporting rough seas of 8 to 10 ft over that region. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with moderate seas. For the forecast, the front will shift east of the discussion area today, with winds and seas decreasing. A new cold front is forecast to enter the NW waters today, which will be followed by fresh to strong winds and long period NW swell resulting in very rough seas to 13 ft over the far NW waters. The front will move eastward and dissipate Tue night west of the Baja California offshore waters. NW swell generated from the frontal system will spread SE, bringing rough seas over much of the waters N of 10N and W of 120W by midweek.