Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Oct 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Simon is centered near 18.2N 104.8W at 11/0300 UTC, moving north at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 928 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt. Peak seas are near 30 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within 60 nm of center. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 13N to 21N between 101W and 111W. Simon is moving slowly northward. A slightly faster northward or north-northwestward motion is expected later tonight, and the major hurricane will either make landfall or skirt the coast of west-central Mexico on Sunday. Fluctuations in intensity are anticipated tonight, but Simon is still forecast to approach the coast of west-central Mexico as a major hurricane on Sunday. Rapid weakening could occur if the core of Simon moves fully onshore by Monday. the hurricane is expected to produce rainfall totals of 10 to 20 inches over portions of southwestern Mexico, with isolated maximum totals of 30 inches possible across portions of Michoacan, Colima, and Jalisco through Sunday. This rainfall will produce life- threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Swells generated by Simon will affect portions of the coast of southwestern and west- central Mexico during the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Simon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel is centered near 30.0N 116.5W at 11/0300 UTC, moving north-northeast at 31 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Scattered moderate convection is over forecast waters N of center between 116W and 119W. Rachel is expected to make landfall along the coast of northern Baja California later tonight. Rachel and its moisture will continue to spread over portions of the Southwest United States and northern Baja California peninsula. This will lead to increasing coverage of rainfall and for the potential for significant flash and urban flooding this weekend. Rachel will bring 1 to 3 inches of rain to portions of Baja California this weekend. Waves generated by Rachel will continue to build along the coasts of Southern California and northern Baja California today. These waves, combined with an incoming long-period southerly swell, will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Coastal flooding and erosion are expected to worsen tonight into Sunday morning as the highest waves coincide with the high tides and water levels that are already running well above predicted levels. Moderate to major coastal flooding is expected, with hazardous coastal conditions continuing into early next week. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 08N91W to 13N100W, then resumes near 16N119W to beyond 10N140W. In addition to the convection associated with Rachel and Simon, scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 07N between 83W and 130W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 134W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricane Simon and Post Tropical Cyclone Rachel. Outside of the areas impacted by Simon and Rachel, a weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. A recent scatterometer pass indicated N winds of 15 kt across the Tehuantepec region and downwind to about 14N. Seas are 6 to 7 ft with these winds. For the forecast, Hurricane Simon is near 18.2N 104.8W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving north at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 135 kt with gusts to 165 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 928 mb. Simon will move to 19.1N 105.0W Sun morning, 20.1N 105.3W Sun evening, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.1N 105.5W Mon morning, 22.0N 105.6W Mon evening, move inland and weaken to a tropical depression near 23.0N 105.9W Tue morning, and dissipate Tue evening. Meanwhile, Post-Tropical Cyclone Rachel is near 30.0N 116.5W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving north-northeast at 31 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Rachel will move to 34.5N 114.9W Sun morning, and dissipate Sun evening. Expect increasing winds and building seas over the northern Gulf of California tonight into Sun as Rachel approaches Baja California Norte. An area of low pressure is forecast to develop south or southwest of the coast of Mexico by early next week. Environmental conditions are expected to be conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the middle or latter half of next week as the system moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 mph. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are noted N of 04N. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail S of 04N. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast waters through the middle of next week. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Papagayo region Sun night and Mon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Post Tropical Cyclone Rachel and Major Hurricane Simon. Outside of the influence of Rachel, moderate to fresh winds and rough seas are noted N of 20N W of 115W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, as Rachel moves over the southwest United States, a cold front is forecast to extend across the northern forecast waters on Sun. Fresh N to NE winds and rough seas, in long period northerly swell, will follow the front forecast to reach from the northern Baja California to near 22N125W on Mon while gradually dissipating. Large SW swell will continue to affect the waters S of the Equator and west of 105W over the next couple of days.