Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue May 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 86W, extending north of 04N into Nicaragua and Honduras, and is moving west at 5 kt. It is enhancing convection near the monsoon trough described in the section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N74W to 09.5N79W to 10N86W. The ITCZ extends from 08.5N92W to 09.5N101W to 06N118W to 08N126W to beyond 05.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 10N E of 88W, and from 00N to 13N between 98W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle NW to N breezes continue to cover most of the Mexican offshore waters this morning, as a surface trough from just N of Isla Guadalupe extending SW to near 26N124W is partially blocking a broad ridge to the W of the region. South of the trough, the ridge extends modestly into Baja Sur, where moderate northerly winds prevail across the waters south of Cabo San Lazaro. Light breezes are noted inside the Gulf of California. Large N-NW moving through the regional waters is producing seas of 8-10 ft off of Baja California, with recent satellite altimeter data showing an area of seas to 11 ft well offshore of Punta Eugenia. This current swell has begun to subside. Combined seas are 4-7 ft primarily in NW swell elsewhere across the Mexican waters between Tehuantepec and the Revillagigedo Islands. For the forecast, large NW swell will persist off Baja California and through the Revillagigedo Islands today, and will gradually subside through mid week. A ridge extending across the region along roughly 20N will support mostly gentle to moderate NW winds across the region with moderate seas elsewhere in NW swell. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong E gap winds with 5-8 ft seas persist across the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 90W. Gentle to moderate breezes with 3-5 ft seas in SW swell are noted elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along the coastal waters and over interior portions of Costa Rica, Panama, and NW Colombia, behind a tropical wave moving through the region. For the forecast, fresh to occasionally strong winds will pulse across the Gulf of Papagayo mainly in the overnight and early morning hours through Thu morning. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds along with moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the end of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge extends southwestward from a 1034 mb high near 38N141W southward to the ITCZ, and southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This feature is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds north of the ITCZ west of 122W. Large to moderate N to NE swell continues to move through the regional waters generally N of 14N this morning, producing seas in this area range from 7 to 11 ft to the W of 110W, with seas to 12 ft just N of the area along 127W. For the waters north of the ITCZ east of 120W, gentle to moderate NE to E winds with 6 to 9 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail. Gentle to moderate SE to E winds and seas at 5 to 8 ft in mixed moderate swells prevail south of the ITCZ. Active convection is along the ITCZ between 105W and 135W. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will continue to gradually weaken while shifting westward through midweek. This will allow winds and seas north of the ITCZ to steadily subside from east to west through midweek, becoming gentle to moderate winds with 6 to 8 ft seas by Thu. Winds south of the ITCZ will also becoming gentle by Thu with seas staying at 5 to 7 ft in mixed swells.