Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Mar 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from low pressure in northern Colombia southwestward to 08N78W and to 04N87W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues to beyond 03N140W. No deep convection is currently observed. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent satellite data passes reveal a light to gentle northerly wind flow over the waters west of Baja California, and mostly light and variable winds over the remainder of the offshore waters. Seas are in the range of 4 to 6 ft in northwest swell over the offshore waters west of Baja California, and 3 to 4 ft over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. In the Gulf of California, winds are southeast to south at around 10 kt. Seas in the Gulf are 2 to 4 ft. For the forecast, high pressure west of Baja California will support a light to gentle northerly wind flow over the waters west of Baja California, and mostly light and variable winds over the remainder of the offshore waters through the forecast period, with the exception of winds increasing to moderate speeds north of Punta Eugenia on Wed night. Northwest swell will build seas to around 9 ft north of Punta Eugenia Thu through Fri night before subsiding. Fresh to strong north gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse nightly through the rest of the week with rough seas. A frontal boundary will move across the Gulf of America this weekend. The pressure gradient in the Tehuantepec region will tighten leading to gale-force northeast winds beginning Sat night and through early next week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the Caribbean Sea is currently allowing for fresh northeast winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region as noted in the latest scatterometer satellite data. Seas with these winds are 4 to 6 ft. Farther east, a tight pressure gradient is sustaining fresh north to northeast winds in the Gulf of Panama that reach south to near 05N. Seas are 4 to 6 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, strong northeast to east winds will pulse nightly in the Gulf of Papagayo going into the upcoming weekend along with moderate to rough seas. Moderate to fresh north winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama during this time. Gentle breezes and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between broad high pressure north of 15N and west of 119W, and lower pressure near the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trades from 05N to 14N west of 123W and moderate trades from 05N to 12N between 115W and 123W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within these areas. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle in speeds and in anticyclonic fashion around the high pressure. Seas are 4 to 6 ft elsewhere primarily due to a long-period northwest to north swell. For the forecast, little overall changes are expected with the current conditions through Wed. A cold front will approach the far NW corner of the area today, followed by fresh to strong northeast winds north of 29N and west of 139W on Wed. Fresh winds will develop north of 25N Thu through Fri in the periphery of the frontal system as it progresses eastward just north of the area.