Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Jul 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Genevieve is centered near 15.5N 112.2W at 27/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 925 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 140 kt with gusts to 170 kt. Peak seas are near 40 ft (12.0 M). Numerous strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center. A west- northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next few days. Genevieve strengthened to a Category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Some fluctuations in strength are possible during the next day or so. Genevieve is then forecast to start weakening by the middle of this week. Swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and will likely reach southern portions of the Baja California Peninsula tonight or Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisories and Public Advisories of both systems at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 96W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 04N to 13N between 90W and 100W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N82W to 09N105W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N119W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is present north of 03N and east of 85W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Major Hurricane Genevieve, currently located S of the Revillagigedo Islands Away form the impacts of Genevieve, moderate to fresh N gap winds have developed in the Tehunatepec region. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds associated with high pressure building in from the N are impacting waters N and W of Guadalupe Island. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail. Seas are slight in the Gulf of California and moderate in the remaining offshore waters. For the forecast, Hurricane Genevieve is near 15.5N 112.2W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 140 kt with gusts to 170 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 925 mb. Genevieve will move to 16.3N 113.4W this afternoon, 17.3N 115.0W Tue morning, 17.9N 116.4W Tue afternoon, 18.5N 117.9W Wed morning, 19.2N 119.6W Wed afternoon, and 20.0N 121.5W Thu morning. Genevieve will weaken to a tropical storm well W of Baja California Sur early Fri. Elsewhere, areas of fresh mainly westerly gap winds are likely Mon night through Wed night in the Gulf of California as high pressure builds southward to the west of the Baja California Peninsula. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information about convection in the region. High pressure NE of the area is forcing fresh to locally strong easterly gap winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds along with locally rough seas will pulse across the Papagayo region through the period. Pulsing moderate to fresh north winds are expected ion the Gulf of Panama Wed through Thu. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in southwest swell are expected elsewhere, except in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and nearshore western Colombia where slight seas are forecast. The southwest swell will subside by midweek. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Major Hurricane Genevieve. Hurricane Fausto continues to move away from the tropical eastern Pacific. Fresh E winds and rough seas up to 11 ft continue to impact waters from 17N to 28N W of 135W. Elsewhere, for waters not being impacted by Fausto or Genevieve, 1023 mb high pressure centered near 33N131W dominates. Moderate to fresh anticyclonic winds and moderate seas impact waters N of 18N and W of 120W. To the south of the ITCZ, a zone of moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate to rough seas are noted S of 05N between 95W and 125W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Hurricane Genevieve is near 15.5N 112.2W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 11 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 140 kt with gusts to 170 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 925 mb. Genevieve will move to 16.3N 113.4W this afternoon, 17.3N 115.0W Tue morning, 17.9N 116.4W Tue afternoon, 18.5N 117.9W Wed morning, 19.2N 119.6W Wed afternoon, and 20.0N 121.5W Thu morning. Hurricane Fausto will continue to weaken as it moves further away from the basin with seas diminishing below 8 ft this afternoon in the westernmost waters.