Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Sep 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Showers and thunderstorms associated with a 1007 mb low pressure, Invest EP96, centered near 16N112W or several hundred miles south-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula, continue to show signs of organization. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 12N to 20N between 109W and 116W. Although the system does not have a closed surface circulation yet, further development is expected and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while it moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. There is a high chance of tropical cyclone formation within the next two and seven days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 84W north of 03N through Costa Rica, Nicaragua and E Honduras. The wave is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convecton is from 02N to 08N E of 90W. A tropical wave has its axis along 98W north of 01N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection extends from 00N to 17N between 90W and 108W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N85W to 07N100W to Invest EP96 1007 mb low pressure near 16N112W to 13N127W and beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is active from 12N to 18N between 122W and 131W, and from 01N to 09N W of 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1007 mb low pressure, Invest EP96, centered near 16N112W has high chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next two and seven days. Fresh to strong winds in the N semicircle of the low are affecting the Revillagigedo Islands along with moderate to rough seas. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec fresh to strong winds are pulsing and seas have remain moderate. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms are active across the SW Mexican offshores associated with Invest EP96 and a trailing tropical wave near 98W. Farther north, a weak pressure gradient across the region due to the presence of the remnant low of Marie to the west of the Baja California Norte is supporting mainly light to gentle winds off the Baja Peninsula, and moderate or weaker winds and slight seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, regardless of development, the EP96 will continue to affect the Revillagigedo Islands with fresh to strong winds and moderate to rough seas through this evening. The trailing tropical wave is forecast to provide mainly moderate to fresh SE winds to the SW Mexican offshores today through Thu. Otherwise, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds will continue to pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region with moderate seas to 6 ft in southwest swell. Gentle to moderate S to SE winds are across the offshores between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands along with moderate seas. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds along with slight to moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sun night. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos today through Wed night, then diminishing some afterward. Moderate or lighter winds are expected elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features for further info on Invest EP96 with high potential of development. The remnant low of Marie is centered 27N128W and has an estimated pressure of 1003 mb. A recent scatterometer pass confirm the continuation of strong to near-gale force winds within the E semicircle of the low. Seas to 14 ft are ongoing within 390 nm E semicircle of the low per recent altimeter data, with surrounding swell of 8 ft or greater extending over the waters north of 20N and west of 124W. Farther south, SW swell to 8 ft originating in the Southern Hemisphere is reaching the equator between 100W and 130W, and mixing with northerly swell. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. This swell area is forecast to expand eastward through today as the primary swell direction becomes northwest to north. Seas from this swell are expected to be 7 to 9 ft. For the forecast, aside from the Special Feature indicating the potential of tropical cyclone development from Invest EP96, an area of low pressure is forecast to form several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula this weekend or early next week. Some gradual development is possible thereafter, and a tropical depression could form early next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. Chance of tropical cyclone development is low within the next two days and medium within the next seven days.