Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jul 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Genevieve is centered near 17.5N 115.4W at 28/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 943 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt. Peak seas are near 40 ft or 12.5 m. Numerous moderate convection is within 150 nm of the center. A west- northwestward to northwestward motion with some decrease in forward speed is expected during the next couple of days. Genevieve is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is expected the next several days. Swells generated by Genevieve area affecting the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula and portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Genevieve NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 102W, south of 15N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 15N between 99W and 103W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 1010 mb low pressure near 09N76W to 08N93W to 10N107W. The ITCZ extends from 08N122W to beyond 05N140W. Other than the convection mentioned with Genevieve and the tropical wave above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 77W and 92W and from 00N to 08N between 128W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Major Hurricane Genevieve. Please refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections above for information about additional convection in the region. Away from the impacts of Genevieve, moderate to locally fresh NW winds associated with high pressure building in from the northwest are impacting waters N and W of Guadalupe Island. Outflow from convection over Sonora is bringing fresh SE winds to the northern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail. Seas are slight in the Gulf of California and moderate in the remaining offshore waters. For the forecast, Hurricane Genevieve is near 17.5N 115.4W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 943 mb. Genevieve will move to 18.0N 116.5W this afternoon, 18.6N 118.0W Wed morning, 19.1N 119.7W Wed afternoon, 19.8N 121.8W Thu morning, and 20.5N 124.0W Thu afternoon. Genevieve will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.3N 126.4W Fri morning. Tropical Storm Genevieve will change little in intensity as it moves further west of Baja California Sur early Sat. Large seas associated with Genevieve will finally pull away from the offshore waters of Baja California Fri. Elsewhere, areas of fresh mainly westerly gap winds are likely through Wed night nearshore Baja California and also in the Gulf of California as high pressure builds southward to the west of the Baja California Peninsula. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section above for information about convection in the region. High pressure northeast of the area is forcing fresh easterly gap winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through the period. Pulsing moderate to locally fresh N winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama tonight and Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in southwest swell are expected across the remainder of the waters through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Major Hurricane Genevieve. For waters not being impacted by Hurricane Genevieve, 1026 mb high pressure centered near 33N136W dominates. This is causing moderate to fresh N to E winds N of 15N and W of 120W, along with moderate seas. To the south, winds are moderate or weaker, mainly southeasterly, with moderate seas. South of the Equator, rough seas in southerly swell are present W of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, Hurricane Genevieve is near 17.5N 115.4W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 120 kt with gusts to 145 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 943 mb. Genevieve will move to 18.0N 116.5W this afternoon, 18.6N 118.0W Wed morning, 19.1N 119.7W Wed afternoon, 19.8N 121.8W Thu morning, and 20.5N 124.0W Thu afternoon. Genevieve will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.3N 126.4W Fri morning. Away from Genevieve, little change in marine conditions is forecast across the remainder of the waters into next weekend.