Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Apr 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0842 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from northwest Colombia southwestward to 05N90W to 04N116W. The ITCZ extends from 04N116W to 05N140W. A second ITCZ extends from 02S97W to 03S138W. Scattered moderate convection is depicted from 03.5S to 06N between 84W and 107W. Similar convection is depicted from 04.5N to 10N between 116W and 127W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1024 mb high pressure is centered near 34N132W the associated ridge extends to 16.5N and west of 114W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures over Mexico is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds west of the Baja California Peninsula. Winds are gentle to locally moderate across the Gulf of California. Elsewhere over the Pacific, winds are moderate or weaker in speeds. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in northwest swell over Pacific waters northwest of Cabo Corrientes, 5 to 6 ft in south swell over the Pacific to the southeast of Cabo Corrientes, 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California, except for seas of 3 to 5 ft in the southern section and slightly higher seas of 5 to 6 ft in long- period south swell at the entrance to the Gulf. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong northwest winds will occur near Cabo San Lucas through early Sat. Northwest swell will briefly impact the waters west of Baja California Norte through early Sat. Otherwise, rather quiet conditions will remain over the Mexican offshores through the weekend. Looking ahead, high pressure building over the Gulf of America is expected to induce a strong to near gale force Tehuantepec gap wind event beginning Sun night into Tue. Northwesterly swell will move into the area Tuesday night and range between 6 to 8 ft through the remainder of the forecast period. Otherwise, high pressure will dominate the general weather pattern into the middle of next week and support moderate to fresh winds across the area. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate easterly winds prevail in the Papagayo region. These winds reach westward to near 87W. Moderate northerly winds are also found in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, winds across the Central American and equatorial waters are gentle or weaker. Seas over the forecast waters are 4 to 6 ft in long- period south to southwest swell. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 06N between 84W and 87W. Scattered showers are over and near the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh speeds across the Gulf of Papagayo early this morning. Otherwise, rather tranquil conditions are expected to remain over the Central American and the equatorial waters through early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1024 mb is analyzed north of the area at 34N132W, with a ridge extending southeastward to 16.5N and west 114W. A weak pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures associated to the ITCZ is allowing for only moderate to locally fresh northeast trades over forecast waters. Seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell, except for seas around 8 ft north of 28N between 121W and 126.5W. No additional deep convection is occurring away from the surface trough/ITCZ. For the forecast, little change is expected in the winds during the next few days. Northwest swell producing seas to near 8 ft over the extreme northeast part, will decay early on Sat allowing for the seas to lower below 8 ft. Otherwise, little change in the seas are also expected through the weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front is expected to reach the northwest part of the discussion late Sat into early on Sun. The cold front will move southeastward while gradually weakening and accompanied by moderate NW winds and large northwest to north swell. The swell should reach near 20N and west of 120W by Tue late night. Seas to around 13 ft are expected with the swell.