Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Nov 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from coastal Costa Rica at 10N85W to a 1010 mb low at 08N131W to beyond 09N140W. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 02N-15N between 127W-136W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring south of 10N east of 100W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong N gap winds are occurring this morning over the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas 8-10 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 5-7 ft over the Pacific waters and 2-5 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh N gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will decrease this evening. High pressure over the SW United States will support fresh NW winds over the Gulf of California through Tue and offshore Baja California through Thu. Large, long-period NW swell will impact the waters north of Cabo San Lazaro Tue night into Thu. New large NW swell will enter the waters north of Punta Eugenia beginning Fri night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE winds are occurring over the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas 7-8 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 5-7 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring south of 10N east of 100W. For the forecast, fresh NE to E gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region will diminish to moderate by this evening. Elsewhere, winds and seas are quiescent. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1022 mb high at 34N126W combined with lower pressure over the monsoon trough is forcing only moderate or weaker winds across the forecast waters. North of 25N and west of 135, there is NW swell of 8-10 ft. Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, a cold front is forecast to enter the NW waters today, which will be followed by fresh to strong winds and long period NW swell resulting in very rough seas to 13 ft over the far NW waters. The front will move eastward and dissipate Tue night west of the Baja California offshore waters. NW swell generated from the frontal system will spread SE, bringing rough seas over much of the waters N of 10N and W of 120W by midweek. Additionally, a broad area of low pressure located well east- southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Formation chances are low for the next two days, but are high after the system moves westward to the Central Pacific waters.