Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Feb 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Large NW Swell: Large NW swell continues to move southeastward across the NW waters, behind a cold front which extends from 30N126W to 19N140W. Seas of 12 ft and greater have reached as far S as 22N to the W of 130W, with peak seas currently around 18 ft near 29N140W. Rough seas of 12 ft and greater will continue to propagate southeastward and reach the waters N of 21N and W of 121W by this evening, then begin to slowly subside, with seas 12 ft and greater N of 23N and W of 118W by early Tue. Seas will then continue to subside to less than 12 ft Tue evening, before new N swell enters the northern waters by early Wed morning, raising seas above 12 ft again Wed through Thu. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 07.5N81W to 04N100W. The ITCZ extends from 04N100W to 02N120W to beyond 01N140W. No significant convection is noted. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weakening high pressure continues to produce a broad ridge south-southeastward from offshore Baja California to offshore of Cabo Corrientes, while elongated troughing remains just inland across western Mexico. Strong to near gale-force northerly winds have developed in the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to a cold front moving through the Bay of Campeche to the N and building high pressure behind the front. Mostly W-NW winds are across the remainder of the offshore waters, locally fresh in the northern Gulf of California. Seas are 6 to 7 ft offshore Baja California and W of 110W, and 3 to 6 ft elsewehre, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to near gale-force northerly winds will persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a cold front moves by to the N through the Bay of Campeche with high pressure building behind it. Those winds will persist into early Tue before diminishing. A cold front will approach Baja California later today with troughing ahead of it supporting fresh to near gale- force SW winds in the northern Gulf of California later this morning through early Tue, with similar winds early Wed as the actual front shifts by. Fresh to strong SW-W winds offshore Baja California N of Punta Eugenia will be ahead of the front late tonight, diminishing by early Tue. High pressure will build in across the waters offshore Baja California in the wake of the front, with fresh to locally strong winds nearshore Baja California to near Cabo Corrientes by mid-week. New rough to very rough NW swell will move into the waters offshore Baja California later today through Wed, getting reinforced Wed night through the end of the week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh offshore gap winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere. Seas are 2 to 4 ft from offshore Colombia northwestward, and 3 to 5 ft offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, fresh NE to E gap winds and moderate seas will persist across the Papagayo region, pulsing to fresh to strong this evening as high pressure builds across Central America. Those winds will continue to pulse through at least early Thu, then moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds will pulse from the Gulf of Panama to near the Azuero Peninsula through mid-week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will change little through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on Significant Very Rough NW Swell forecast for the NW waters. A cold front continues to move southeastward over the NW waters, extending from 30N126W to 19N140W. Fresh to strong NW-N winds and building seas are behind the front, and are just below gale force across the far NW waters. Weak and broad high pressure prevails ahead of the front. Moderate to locally fresh trades are from 07N to 16N between 110W and 140W with moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in fading NW to N swell N of the ITCZ to 15N and W of 120W, and 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open waters ahead of the front. For the forecast, other than the Significant Large NW Swell entering the NW waters, the cold front with fresh to strong winds behind it will reach from near Punta Eugenia to 14N130W by early Tue. Winds N of 20N behind the front will gradually diminish from W to E tonight through Tue as the front weakens and continues moving eastward, before gradually dissipating. High pressure will build in the wake of the front Tue through Thu as a low to middle-level disturbance develops S of 20N and near 140W. This scenario will produce a broad fresh to strong trades N of the ITCZ to 24N and W of 120W late Tue through early Fri, Expect active showers and thunderstorms, with rough to very rough seas in NW swell to accompany these increasing trades.