Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Aug 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is SW of Jalisco, Mexico with axis near 109W, extending from 08N to 17N, and moving westward at 20 kt. There is no significant convection associated with this wave. A tropical wave extends from 09N to 16N with axis near 119W, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is active from 04N to 15N between 110W and 125W. A tropical wave extends from 09N to 17N with axis near 139W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is active from 01N to 18N between 126W and 142W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N77W to 09N84W to 08N90W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 06N95W to 07N110W to 12N118W, and from 10N121W to 11N138W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 15N between 93W and 106W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong N gap winds prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, reaching about 14N. Rough seas to 9 ft are associated with these strong gap winds. Moderate NW winds are noted off Baja California while moderate to fresh SE winds blow along the central Gulf of California. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle and seas slight to moderate in SW swell. Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, seas are 4-6 ft except for 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early next week. The pressure gradient between high pressure NW of the area and lower pressure over the Colorado River Valley will support fresh to locally strong southerly winds across the southern and northern Gulf of California through late Mon. Elsewhere, a moderate pressure gradient will support mostly gentle to moderate winds across the remainder offshore waters of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to near gale-force gap winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo. A plume of these winds extend as far west as 360 nm downstream, and associated seas are likely 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE gap winds are also active across the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, mostly gentle breezes and 4-6 ft seas are noted. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region through Wed, reaching near gale-force briefly tonight through late Sun. The gap wind event will produce a fetch of moderate to locally fresh easterlies across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Moderate or weaker southerly winds and moderate seas will continue across the offshores between Ecuador and the Galapagos through the forecast period. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are forecast elsewhere through Wed night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1027 mb high near 36N143W extends a ridge across the subtropical E Pacific waters to nearly 115W. The gradient of pressure between this area of high pressure and a tropical wave with axis near 137W is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds from 10N to 20N W of 135W. Seas over these waters are 7-8 ft. Large SE swell to 8 ft are found over the waters S of 05N between 115W and 135W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, persistent fresh trade winds west of 125W will maintain moderate to rough seas through the early part of the week. This will be possibly be followed by developing low pressure along the ITCZ/monsoon trough near 125W by Tue, and a tropical depression could form by midweek while the system moves slowly west-northwestward. Also, an area of low pressure could form well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico by the middle of next week. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves generally west-northwestward, although chances for tropical cyclone development remain low.