Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jun 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Low pressure area west of Clarion Island (EP94): 1007 mb low pressure is centered near 18N117.5W or about 160 NM west of Clarion Island, along a tropical wave. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is active within 60 NM of the center. Peak winds with the low are near 25 kt with highest seas of 7 ft. A tropical depression could still form today while environmental conditions remain marginally conducive. However, this system is moving quickly toward cooler waters, and by Thursday it should encounter these unfavorable conditions, ending development chances. There is a medium...40 percent...chance of tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 93W, south of 16N, moving west around 20 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 08N-15N between 93W-103W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 104W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is active from 08N-16N between 103W-112W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 117W, south of 20N, moving westward at around 15 kt. An area of low pressure, Invest EP94, is along this tropical wave near 18N117.5W. Please see the Special Features section above for more information on this low pressure system. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Panama near 08N82W to 11N107W to 08N134W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 08N-15N between 93W-103W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is active from 08N-16N between 103W-112W. Isolated moderate convection is occurring from 03N-06N between 84W-89W as well as from 05N-15N between 113W-121W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of Tehuantepec this afternoon with seas 7-9 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 5-6 ft in S to SW swell for Pacific waters and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 08N-15N between 93W-103W. For the forecast, low pressure over the deep tropics will be inducing fresh to strong N to NE gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri. Elsewhere, winds and seas across the Mexican Offshores should be quiescent. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds are NE fresh to strong in the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas 7-9 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 4-7 ft in S to SW swell. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the NE Pacific monsoon trough is supporting a Gulf of Papagayo region gap wind event. Fresh to strong NE to E winds should last into early next week. Elsewhere, winds should remain quiescent. Large S swell moving into the equatorial waters tonight will continue through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for more information on Invest EP94. Winds are SE to E fresh to strong with seas to 7 ft west near 20N120W in association with Invest EP94. A surface ridge extends from a 1033 mb high at 38N144W east-southeastward to 30N127W to 25N115W. The moderate pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the ITCZ/monsoon trough is forcing only moderate to locally fresh trades. The remainder of the winds across the open Pacific are moderate or weaker. Seas are 5-8 ft in mixed N and S to SW swell. For convection, see sections above about tropical waves and the ITCZ/monsoon trough. For the forecast aside from EP94, another low pressure system is likely to form this weekend or early next week over the central portion of the East Pacific basin. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the early to middle part of next week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Tropical cyclone formation chance is near 0 percent through 48 hours, but is medium...60 percent...through 7 days. Elsewhere, large seas due to mixed SW and SE swell will be moving across our southern border tonight through the weekend. 8 ft seas should reach up to at most 01N before diminishing.