Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Oct 17 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Trudy is centered near 16.6N 103.9W at 17/1500 UTC, moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are 34 ft. Numerous strong convection is within 120 nm of the center. A general NW motion is forecast to continue through Sunday. On the forecast track, the center of Trudy will approach the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico today and pass near the coast tonight into Sunday. Some strengthening remains possible today, followed by weakening beginning by Sunday. Swells generated by Trudy are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico and will spread northward toward west-central Mexico through the weekend. These swells will cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Trudy. Gale Warning: High pressure building into Mexico is forcing near- gale force northerly winds southward into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, building seas to 8 to 11 ft. Gales are developing this morning, and should continue through Tue night, with peak winds nearing 45 kt this afternon and tonight, along with seas of up to 20 ft through Sun night. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 08N89W and to 10N94W and then from 12N101W to 09N115W and to 05N129W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N131W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found south of 13N and east of 95W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is present from 01N to 08N and between 105W and 122W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Trudy and the Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Away from Hurricane Trudy and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the remnants of Simon are producing moderate to fresh winds and rough seas. Moderate to locally fresh winds are also present in the Gulf of California. Seas in these waters are 2-5 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Hurricane Trudy will move to 17.1N 104.2W this afternoon, 18.6N 105.4W Sun morning approaching Cabo Corrientes, 19.7N 106.1W Sun afternoon, 20.5N 106.9W Mon morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 20.7N 107.4W Mon afternoon, and 20.9N 108.1W Tue morning. Trudy will weaken to a remnant low over 21.1N 109.3W early Wed over the entrance to the Gulf of California. In addition to Trudy, a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is ongoing. This early-season Tuhuantepecer should reach gale-force northerlies this morning and likely persist through Tue night, before gradually diminishing on Wed. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form offshore of southern Mexico during the early to middle part of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the latter half of next week while it moves generally westward to west- northwestward over the eastern and central portions of the East Pacific. Formation chance is low through 48 hours, and high through 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds are prevalent across the offshore waters. However, stronger winds are found near the thunderstorms in the offshore waters of Central America and Colombia. Seas of 6-8 ft are noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands associated with a long- period cross-equatorial swell. Seas of 3-6 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, a strong early-season Tehuantepecer gap wind event will cause fresh to locally strong NE winds over the W portion of the Guatemala and El Salvador zone tonight and Sun. Large to very large seas from mixed NW swell from the Tehuantepecer and SW swell from the Southern Hemisphere will also impact this zone from tonight through Tue night. Large SW swell is impacting the equatorial zones now through Sat night. Finally, scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms will continue to impact the offshore waters from Guatemala through Colombia over at least the next few days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1030 mb high pressure system centered near 37N147W extends southeastward to the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific waters. A recent scatterometer satellite pass depicts moderate to locally fresh easterly trade winds north of 06N and west of 120W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and rough seas are found south of the monsoon trough and east of 125W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate to locally rough seas prevail. For the forecast, little change in winds is expected during the next few days. The large SW swell in our southern waters will gradually diminish by Sun. Looking ahead, a weak cold front should reach our northern border on Tue. Moderate to locally strong northerly winds will follow the front, diminishing Wed night. Large NW swell will also accompany the front producing rough to very rough seas, subsiding by late next week.