Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Aug 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 115W and extends from 09N to 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 16N between 112W and 118W. A tropical wave is along 128W and extends from 07N to 15N, moving westward at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 15N between 127W and 130W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N77W to 03N82W to 08N86W to 07N90W. The ITCZ extends from 07N90W to 08N110W. The monsoon trough resumes from 08N110W to 12N120W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 06N to 16N between 100W and 115W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A scatterometer satellite pass from 03 UTC confirmed fresh to strong gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Rough seas likely accompany the fresh to strong gap winds. Elsewhere, a ridge dominates the waters west of Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate breezes with 3-5 ft seas, except for 1-3 ft seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue morning. The pressure gradient between the ridge W of the area and lower pressures over northern Mexico will support moderate to locally fresh southerly winds across the northern Gulf of California through Wed. Elsewhere, a moderate pressure gradient will promote mostly gentle to moderate winds across the remainder offshore waters of Mexico along with moderate seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong E gap winds and rough seas persist across the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft in SW swell prevails elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region through Tue morning, reaching near gale- force speed at night. The gap wind event will produce a fetch of moderate to locally fresh easterlies with seas of 6 to 8 ft across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through late Mon. Moderate to fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Tue. Moderate or weaker southerly winds and moderate seas will continue across the offshores between Ecuador and the Galapagos through the forecast period. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are forecast elsewhere through Fri night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad ridging dominates the pattern north of 20N. Convergent trade winds along with divergent flow aloft on the southeast side of an upper trough are altogether supporting clusters of convection along and north of the monsoon trough west of 125W. Low pressure may be starting form along the tropical at 128W. Fresh winds and combined seas to 8 ft are noted from 10N to 15N west of 135W. Farther east, fresh NE to E winds and 5-8 ft seas originating from the Gulf of Papagayo region are reaching as far as 100W along 08N to 10N. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh trade winds and moderate to rough seas are forecast to persist W of 125W likely through Tue. As previously mentioned, the tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward across the western portion of the East Pacific. Winds and seas are forecast to increase across the west-central portion of the forecast region by the early to middle part of the week as this system develops.