Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jun 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 88W, south of 19N, moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present from 03N to 06N between 85W and 90W. A tropical wave is along 95W, south of 15N, drifting westward at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 03N to 06N and between 93W and 98W. A tropical wave is along 105W, south of 17N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 05N to 07N and between 102W and 105W. A tropical wave is along 120W, south of 18N, drifting westward at 5 kt. No significant convection is evident near this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 13N110W to 08N130W. The ITCZ extends from 08N130W to 06N140W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is evident from 04N to 08N east of 85W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 15N between 85W and 110W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... An early morning scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate NW winds in the Baja California offshore waters. Seas are 5-7 ft in these waters. The strongest winds are found north of Punta Eugenia. Locally fresh NW winds are noted in the central Gulf of California as wind from the Pacific waters move through the mountain passages. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, ridging over the eastern Pacific will support moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California through Mon night, and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere. Winds off Baja California will diminish starting Tue as the high pressure weakens ahead of a trough moving into the area from off southern California. This pattern will also support moderate to fresh southerly winds across the Gulf of California Mon night into Tue ahead of the trough. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong northerly gap winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by midweek. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are present in the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending downstream to 90W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Farther south, moderate southerly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of 03N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are expected in the Papagayo region into early next week. Winds will freshen to strong speeds starting late Mon with seas building to 8 or 9 ft by late Tue. The gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will produce seas to 9 ft in the far offshore waters of Guatemala by midweek. Meanwhile, mainly moderate southerly winds and moderate to locally rough seas will prevail across the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through at least midweek. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong subtropical ridge centered well north of our waters extends into the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and moderate seas are found north of 10N and west of 115W. Meanwhile, moderate SE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are noted south of 05N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, additional pulses of SW swell will continue to propagate across the forecast waters east of 125W generating moderate to locally rough seas. Otherwise, little changes are expected in winds and seas through early next week as a ridge remains in control of the weather pattern across the area. Looking ahead, most weather models are indicating broad low pressure may form along the monsoon trough between 90W and 100W possibly starting mid week, although there is a low chance of tropical cyclone development.