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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Sep 3 2025 Correction to Lorena Seas Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Storm Kiko: Hurricane Kiko is centered near 13.8N 129.53W at 03/0900 UTC, moving west at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed remains 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Seas are peaking near 30 ft within 20 nm north of center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 13.5N to 15N between 129W and 131W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere from 12N to 15N between 128.5W and 132W. Kiko will maintain a general westward motion across the eastern Pacific,and continue to gradually intensify, and cross 140W and move into the central Pacific basin Sat. Kiko is forecast to peak in intensity near 105 kt Thu through Fri morning, before starting to weaken Fri afternoon through the weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Kiko NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Hurricane Lorena: Newly upgraded Hurricane Lorena is centered near 21.2N 110.4W at 03/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Maximum seas are near 23 ft within 20 nm NE of center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 20N to 24N between 108W and 111W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere from 17N to 24N between 107W and 114W.5. Lorena is expected to move north-northwestward during the next couple of days, and then is expected to turn north-northeastward and approach central Baja California Fri and cross the Baja Peninsula Fri night. Heavy rainfall is expected across the offshore waters and coastal zones of SW and west-central Mexico and has already begun to shift across the waters of Baja California Sur. This heavy rainfall could lead to flash flooding, especially in mountainous areas. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lorena NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 95W from 06N northward into Mexico, moving west 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N74.5W to 09N78W to 09.5N97W to 14.5N109W to 16N122W, then resumes from 12.5N133W to beyond 10.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted N of 05N E of 87W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N to 16.5N between 93.5W and 100W, from 08N to 15N between 102W and 123W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 10N between 137W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for information on newly upgrade Hurricane Lorena south of Baja California. Outside of Lorena, moderate to fresh S to SE winds prevail off Cabo Corrientes to Cabo San Lucas and the adjacent waters, where seas are 6 to 9 ft and building. Strong thunderstorms have shifted northward in recent hours to Baja Sur and the adjacent waters to the east and west. Elsewhere, high pressure located NW of the area extends a ridge southeastward to offshore of central Baja California, with a surface trough over Baja Norte. The associated pressure gradient is producing moderate N winds across the Baja waters north of Punta Eugenia, and gentle to moderate winds across the waters of Baja Sur. Moderate to fresh winds prevail southward and to the Revillagigedo Islands, as Lorena is passing off to the NE. Seas are 4 to 5 ft seas in southerly swell across these waters, except 6 to 9 ft from southern Baja Sur to the western flank of Lorena. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail across the south and central portions of the Gulf of California, with seas in the 3-5 ft range, reaching 6 ft at the entrance of the Gulf. Light winds prevail elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico. A large cluster of strong thunderstorms has developed across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and coastal Oaxaca, associated with a passing tropical wave. For the forecast, Hurricane Lorena is expected to gradually strengthen through Thu, reaching near 22.1N 111.7W midday Wed, near 23.2N 113W midnight Wed, near 24.2N 113.7W midday Thu, then turn north-northeastward and approach Baja Sur near 25.3N 113.9W midnight Thu, reach the Baja coast near 26.4N 113.7W midday Fri as a tropical storm, then begin to quickly weaken as it moves across the Baja Peninsula near 27.4N 113.3W midnight Fri. The remnants of Lorena should then move northeastward across the Gulf of California and inland across mainland Mexico and quickly dissipate Sat through Sat night. Elsewhere, high pressure will remain centered NW of the area through Fri, with an associated ridge across the Baja Norte waters. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and a trough over the Gulf of California will support moderate N winds across north and central portions of the Baja waters through Wed before weakening near the coast Thu through Fri. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected to develop inside the southern Gulf of California Wed night as Lorena approaches the Baja Pacific coast. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate E gap winds extend from the Papagayo region offshore to 94W, behind the exiting tropical wave. Seas there are 4-6 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to moderate SW to W winds prevail. SW swell continues to dominate the waters of Central and South America, with seas in the 4 to 6 ft range, except to 7 ft south and west of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, SW swell offshore of Ecuador and Colombia will increase modestly Wed and Thu. Moderate gap winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to fresh speeds at night through Thu. Light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh S to SW winds are expected south of the monsoon trough through the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the SPECIAL FEATURES section for information on Hurricane Kiko. Aside from Kiko, high pressure prevails over the waters N of 20N, centered on a 1023 mb high near 34N133W. Outside the winds of Kiko, moderate to fresh winds prevail across the waters between 08N and 22N and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere north of 12N and west of 120W. Moderate to fresh winds are found south of 12N. Seas across the forecast waters are in the 4-6 ft range, except 6 to 8 ft in mixed SE and SW swell S of 11N between 105W and 135W. For the forecast, Hurricane Kiko will continue to move westward and strengthen further, reaching near 13.8N 131.2W midday Wed, near 13.9N 132.6W midnight Wed as a 105 kt hurricane, near 14.0N 134.2W midday Thu, near 14.5N 137.4W midday Fri, then weaken modestly as it moves to near 15.0N 139.0W midnight Fri, crossing into the central Pacific on Sat. Elsewhere, weak high pressure will remain north of the area through Thu, with moderate trade winds expected over the discussion waters, then weakening into Sat. S to SW swell over the waters south of 10N will support rough seas south of 12N between 100W and 120W.