Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri May 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N77.5W to 05N80W to 10N86W to 06.5N95W to 10N103W to 09.5N119W to 06N130W. The ITCZ extends from 06N130W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 11N between 79W and 103W, from 04N to 09N between 114W and 125W, and from 08N to 10N between 131W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere from 05N to 14.5N between 105W and 124W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient continues over the regional waters as the NE Pacific ridge extends eastward to about 120W. Early morning satellite scatterometer winds showed light to gentle NW to N winds across most of the Baja offshore waters, and moderate to fresh NW winds near the coast of Baja Sur and Cabo San Lucas. Seas across the Baja waters are 4 to 6 ft in NW swell, except to 7 ft NW of Isla Guadalupe and near the coast of Cabo San Lucas. Satellite scatterometer winds also showed a few plumes of moderate to fresh westerly gap winds across portions of the southern Gulf of California, while moderate SW to S winds prevail across northern portions. Seas in the Gulf are generally 3 ft or less, except to 4 ft in the area of fresh westerly gap winds in the south. Gentle to moderate winds prevail over the remaining Mexican offshore waters to Tehuantepec, where seas are 4 to 5 ft. Middle-level troughing south through southwest of Tehuantepec continues to support scattered active convection offshore of Tehuantepec between 12.5N and 15N. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient will dominate Sat, leading to moderate seas and moderate or weaker winds. Moderate to fresh westerly gap winds will develop during the evening and nighttime hours across the central and southern Gulf of California through early Sat. High pressure will build modestly across the region from the W Sun through early next week. This will tighten the pressure gradient, leading to moderate to locally fresh winds offshore Baja California, with a slight increase in seas. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate E to SE gap winds have developed across the Papagayo region and coastal waters of Nicaragua in recent hours. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds prevail across the Gulf of Panama, while further south, overnight satellite scatterometer wind data showed gentle to moderate southerly winds to the south of 06N, extending to between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. Seas are 5-6 ft in S swell between Colombia and the Galapagos Islands, and 4-5 ft elsewhere. Scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms are drifting NW across the near and offshore waters of western Panama and Costa Rica. For the forecast, moderate gap winds will pulse to fresh each night across the Papagayo region. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell will prevail into the weekend. Expect periods of active convection S of 10N and E of 90W through Sat. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from high pressure centered well N of the Hawaiian Islands, to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ and west of 135W, with mostly moderate winds elsewhere N of the monsoon trough/ITCZ west of 110W. Moderate winds are found S of 01N, with light to gentle winds elsewhere over the discussion waters. Seas over the discussion waters are in the 5-7 ft range in mixed SW and N to NE swell, except locally reaching 8 ft N of 05N to 13N and W of 128W. Seas are also reaching near 8 ft along the equator to the W of 115W as SW swell continue to move through the area. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will gradually weaken while shifting southwestward through Sat. This will loosen the pressure gradient and allow winds and seas north of the ITCZ to decrease slightly to between gentle to moderate, with seas of 5 to 6 ft, respectively, by this weekend. Little change is expected S of the ITCZ into the weekend. Active convection is expected to continue near the monsoon trough and ITCZ between 100W and 120W through Sat.