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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Aug 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Karina is centered near 13.7N 115.5W at 28/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 990 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are around 24 ft (8.0 m). Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm SE and 90 nm NW semicircles of center. Karina is moving toward the northwest, and this general motion is expected to continue over the next day or so, followed by a more westward turn. Karina is forecast to become a hurricane by early Saturday and could become a major hurricane on Sunday. Swells generated by Karina will begin to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Karina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Lowell Tropical Storm Lowell is centered near 12.5N 133.4W at 28/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently around 15 ft (4.5 m). Numerous moderate to strong convection is observed within 180 nm SW semicircle. Lowell is moving toward the northwest. A turn toward the west is expected by tonight, and a westward motion at a faster forward speed is expected over the weekend. Little change in strength is expected through tonight. However, strengthening is expected to begin on Saturday, and Lowell could become a hurricane by Sunday night or Monday. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Lowell NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 96W from 05N to 15N, moving quickly westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 89W and 98W, and from 10N to 14N between 96W and 101W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N95W to 11N110W. In addition to the convection near Karina, Lowell and the tropical wave, numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is active from 03N to 07N between 80W and 87W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N W of 115W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Karina. Fresh to strong easterly winds and rough seas associated with the outer periphery of Karina are reaching the Revillagigedo Islands. Marine conditions will continue to deteriorate in this area, and Tropical Storm conditions are possible tonight and Sat. Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 14N. In the Gulf of California, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are observed N of 29N per recent scatterometer data. Gentle winds and slight seas are occurring across the remainder of the Gulf. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, gentle to moderate winds and 3 to 5 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will strengthen to a hurricane near 14.6N 116.6W Sat morning, move to 15.9N 118.4W Sat afternoon, 16.9N 120.1W Sun morning, 17.5N 121.9W Sun afternoon, 17.9N 123.4W Mon morning, and 18.2N 125.1W Mon afternoon. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to near 19.1N 128.1W Tue afternoon. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Sun with locally rough seas there at times, then pulsing to moderate to fresh thereafter. A surge of fresh to locally strong southeasterly winds will persist in the northern Gulf of California tonight through Sun night. Looking ahead, another area of low pressure is forecast to form during the next day or two well to the south of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form early next week while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 10N90W, with 6 to 8 ft seas there. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are active along the monsoon trough, mainly from from 03N to 07N between 80W and 87W. Strong gusty winds are near thunderstorms. For the forecast, easterly fresh to strong gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the upcoming weekend into early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Associated moderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds may freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into early next week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the monsoon trough. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Tropical Storm Karina and Tropical Storm Lowell. The remnant low of Post-Tropical cyclone Iselle is near 25N131W with a central pressure of 1010 mb. Fresh to strong winds and moderate seas are occurring from 27N to 30N between 127W and 134W. An area of fresh to strong SW to W winds is south of Karina affecting the waters from 05N to 10N between 115W and 122W based of recent satellite derived wind data. Elsewhere, mainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the open waters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from the two tropical storms and Post-Tropical cyclone Iselle. Rough seas generated by Karina cover the waters from 04N to 19N between 105W and 119W. Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Karina will strengthen to a hurricane near 14.6N 116.6W Sat morning, move to 15.9N 118.4W Sat afternoon, 16.9N 120.1W Sun morning, 17.5N 121.9W Sun afternoon, 17.9N 123.4W Mon morning, and 18.2N 125.1W Mon afternoon. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to near 19.1N 128.1W Tue afternoon. Tropical Storm Lowell will move to 12.6N 134.0W Sat morning, 12.8N 135.4W Sat afternoon, 13.0N 136.9W Sun morning, 13.1N 138.6W Sun afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 13.4N 140.5W Mon morning, and 13.6N 142.4W Mon afternoon. Lowell will change little in intensity as it moves to near 14.1N 145.6W Tue afternoon.