Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jul 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the early to middle part of next week while the system moves generally west- northwestward well off the coast of Mexico. Regarless of development, this system is likely to bring fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas across the offshore waters of SW Mexico starting late today into tonight. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -https://www.nhc.noaa.gov for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W, and extends northward to the Bay of Campeche, moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 17N between 88W and 100W. The axis of a tropical wave is along 131W from 08N to 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 18N between 123W and 134W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 07N96W to 08N113W, then resumes near 10N124W and continues along 12N131W to 06N140W. The ITCZ stretches westward beyond 06N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 00N to 10N E of 88W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is from 05N to 17N between 112W and 122W, from 05N to 12N between 98W and 108W, and from 05N to 10N W of 133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting light to gentle winds, also in the Gulf of California. Seas are slight to moderate across the Baja offshores and slight along the Gulf. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with moderate seas. Over the SW Mexican offshores, winds are gentle to moderate from the NW and seas are generally moderate, primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through early Thu, allowing for gentle to moderate NW to N winds to continue along with moderate seas in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail during this period. Similarly, pulses of fresh to strong winds will persist in the Tehuantepec region through Thu night. Otherwise, a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico has the potential for gradual development into a tropical depression during the early or middle part of next week while the system moves generally WNW well off the coast of Mexico. Regarless of development, this system is likely to bring fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas across the offshore waters of SW Mexico starting late today into tonight. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are across the Papagayo region. Similar wind speeds are also noted in the Gulf of Fonseca area. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW prevail elsewhere. Abundant cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms are noted across the offshore waters from Colombia to Guatemala. Winds and seas are likely higher near these thunderstorms activity. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region through Thu night along with moderate to rough seas. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas may impact the waters offshore El Salvador and Guatemala today through Mon night as a broad area of low pressure persists several hundred miles south of the SW coast of Mexico. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands where slight seas are expected. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge prevails across the waters N of 18N W of 120W. Under the influence of the ridge, gentle to moderate NE winds are noted N of 10N and W of 125W while light to gentle winds dominate the waters between 106W and 125W. A tropical wave is moving westward across the waters S of 20N between 123W and 135W. A surface trough is analyzed E of this wave from 15N117W to 06N119W. Scattered moderate convection is near the trough axis, which is well defined. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with moderate seas. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the early to middle part of next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of next week several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system later next week while it moves generally west-northwestward well offshore of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and a low chance through 7 days.