Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jul 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Genevieve is centered near 20.8N 124.8W at 30/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are near 31 ft or 9.5 m. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 30 nm in the SE semicircle, and 60 nm in the NW semicircle. Scattered moderate convection is noted elsewhere within 180 nm of the center of Genevieve. Genevieve is moving toward the west-northwest, and this general motion is expected to continue during the next several days. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Genevieve is expected to weaken to a tropical storm later today and become a remnant low late this weekend. Swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the Baja California Peninsula and Southern California. These swells will persist for the next several days, and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?ripCurrents Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Genevieve NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving through the western Caribbean Sea with the southern extent now in the far eastern Pacific waters along 79W to the north of 02N through the Gulf of Panama, moving quickly westward around 25 kt. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is noted from 01N to 10N between 77W and 87W. A tropical wave is along 100W, extending from 01N to 16N near the coast of Guerrero, Mexico, moving westward around 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 07.5N between 98W and 105W. A tropical wave is along 110.5W, from 03N to 19N near the Revillagigedo Islands, moving westward around 5 to 10 kt. Isolated to widely scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 23N between 105W and 116W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 07N90W. The ITCZ extends from 07N90W to 06N104W to 12N121W with breaks near the above tropical waves. A monsoon trough segment extends from southwest of Genevieve at 14N127W to 07N140W. Other than the convection mentioned above, scattered moderate is noted from 08N to 11.5N between 121W and 127W, and from 03N to 09N between 132W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features Section above for details on Hurricane Genevieve which continues to move away from the outer offshore waters of Baja California. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information about additional convection in the region. Swells from Hurricane Genevieve are still bringing some rough seas to around 8 ft to the outer offshore waters of Baja California Sur. Scattered convection, likely inducing locally gusty winds and locally higher seas is occurring from near the entrance to the Gulf of California to near and south of Cabo San Lucas, also likely enhanced by the northern portion of the tropical wave along 110.5W. Moderate to locally fresh N gap winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec this afternoon. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail. Seas are slight in the Gulf of California and moderate in the remaining offshore waters. For the forecast, rough seas in the far outer offshore waters west of Baja California will subside this evening. Increasing NW swell may lead to rough seas again offshore Baja California Norte Sun night and Mon. Fresh to locally strong gap winds are likely in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, then moderate to fresh Fri night. Moderate to fresh NW winds are expected to pulse tonight and Fri night nearshore Baja California as high pressure builds southward west of the Peninsula. Elsewhere, Fresh SE to S winds may pulse nightly in the northern Gulf of California beginning tonight, possibly to strong Sat night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information about convection in the region. High pressure northeast of the area is forcing fresh to strong northeasterly gap winds and resultant seas of 7 to 9 ft across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through Sun, with occasionally rough seas. Moderate to fresh winds will then pulse thereafter. Pulsing moderate to locally fresh N winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama tonight. Southerly winds may freshen offshore southern Colombia and from Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands tonight and Fri. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected across the remainder of the waters through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Genevieve. For waters not being impacted by Hurricane Genevieve, high pressure is centered just northwest of the area. The pressure pattern between the high and Genevieve is supporting moderate to fresh NE trades to the north and west of Genevieve, mainly across the waters north of 17N and west of 125W. Seas in this region have built to 7 to 10 ft well away from Genevieve including elsewhere from 12N to 30N to the west of 117W. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are found south of the Equator and west of 100W. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere. Moderate seas dominate the remainder of the waters. For the forecast, Hurricane Genevieve will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.2N 126.7W Fri morning, move to 21.9N 129.3W Fri afternoon, 22.7N 132.1W Sat morning, 23.6N 135.1W Sat afternoon, 24.4N 138.0W Sun morning, and become post-tropical and move just west of the discussion waters to 25.4N 140.5W Sun afternoon. Genevieve will weaken to a remnant low near 27.7N 144.5W Mon afternoon. Away from Genevieve, little change in marine conditions is forecast through the weekend. Fresh and rough northerly swell off California is likely to push southward into the waters off Baja California Norte north of 27N and east of 130W by the end of the weekend into early next week. Looking ahead, new large southerly swell may build south of the Equator and west of 100W beginning Tue night.