Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Mar 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... High pressure will build across eastern Mexico in the wake of a cold front moving into southern Mexico. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and the equatorial trough will support gale force gap winds across the Tehuantepec region starting Mon night and persisting into mid week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N77W to 04N90W. The ITCZ extends from 04N90W to 00N98W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 06N between 90W and 95W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 125W and 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features above for more on an upcoming gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A weak pressure gradient is generating light to gentle winds across much of the forecast area, except moderate winds off Cabo Corrientes. Rough seas in NW swell has propagated into the waters NW of Guadalupe Island. Elsewhere, moderate seas prevail over the open waters, with slight seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, large NW swell over the outer offshore waters off Baja California Norte near Guadalupe Island will subside by tonight. Elsewhere, a weak pressure pattern over the region will maintain gentle to moderate breezes and and moderate seas over the open waters off Mexico, with slight to moderate seas in the Gulf of California into next week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh gap winds, locally strong, are over and downwind the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to fresh winds are pulsing in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are noted elsewhere. SW swell is moving across the waters S of 03N, bringing rough seas over the waters from Ecuador westward to the Galapagos Islands. Moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region accompanied by rough seas. Expect rough seas in the Gulf of Panama and farther offshore through tonight due to waves generated by fresh N winds and SW swell. The large SW will also impact offshore areas off Colombia and Ecuador through the weekend. Gap winds will diminish and the SW swell will subside through the early to mid portions of next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure is centered north of the area. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting mostly gentle to moderate NE to E winds across the region. SW swell is bringing seas of 7-9 ft across the waters south of 11N and E of 120W. Wave heights are 6-8 ft south of 10N west of 120W in a combination of NW and SW swell and local trade wind related wind waves. Farther north, NW swell is bringing seas of 6-8 ft to the waters north of 27N west of 120W. Combined seas are 5-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, the rough seas in the tradewind zone will subside early today. Cross-equatorial SW swell will gradually subside today. Farther north, NW swell reaching 8 ft will propagate into the waters north of 27N west of 120W will subside by tonight. Winds and seas will diminish across the region Mon through mid week.