Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue May 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N84W to 08N87W. The ITCZ extends from 08N87W to 04N99W to 08N114W to 06N127W to beyond 08N140W. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 09N between 79W and 86W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 86W and 89W, from 01N to 07N between 94W and 103W, and from 02N to 06N between 114W and 119W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 09N between 90W and 96W, from 03N to 15N between 107W and 110W, and from 05N to 12N between 120W and 134W. Similar convection is noted within 240 nm of Mexico between 92W and 100W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge reaching across the offshore waters of Baja California is disrupted by a surface trough just beyond the offshore waters. This pressure pattern supports mainly gentle to moderate N-NE winds across the offshore waters, except in the Gulf of Tehuantepec where strong to near gale-force northerly winds are present. This is due to a tight pressure gradient with high pressure ridging building southward across eastern Mexico behind a cold front reaching to the eastern Bay of Campeche. Seas are 7-9 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and 5-6 ft elsewhere offshore in a mix of long period S-SW and NW swells. In the Gulf of California, seas are 3 ft or less, with mainly gentle winds, except for moderate to fresh S-SW winds developing N of 30N due to localized troughing and gap wind flow from the peninsula. Clusters of scattered moderate isolated strong convection are present within about 240 nm of the coast of Mexico between 92W and 100W. Strong and gusty winds to gale-force and rough seas may accompany this activity. For the forecast, strong to near gale-force northerly gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Thu morning as high pressure builds over eastern Mexico with a cold front passing by in the Bay of Campeche. Seas will peak around 10 ft at times with these winds. Fresh to strong N winds will then pulse there into early Fri before diminishing. Fresh to locally strong SW winds will briefly develop in the northern Gulf of California this evening and night as a NE to SW trough develops there, and possibly again Wed evening. Otherwise, mainly gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the remainder of the offshore waters, increasing to moderate to fresh offshore Baja California later tonight through Fri as ridging west of the Baja peninsula strengthens. Winds may increase to fresh to strong well offshore Baja California Norte this weekend. Mainly 5-7 ft seas in mixed SW and NW swell will dominate the offshore waters, potentially building to 8 ft offshore Baja California Norte by Fri night, then possibly to at least 8-12 ft Sun while seas of 8 ft or greater spread to off Cabo San Lazaro. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E winds are offshore southern Nicaragua and the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 90W late this afternoon. Seas are 6-7 ft with these winds. Light to gentle winds dominate the remainder of the waters, except to moderate offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Seas are mainly 4-6 ft in southerly swell elsewhere N of the Equator, except 3-5 ft offshore Colombia and eastern Panama. Seas are 5-7 ft from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Very active convection continues across the offshore waters from 04N to 09N and into portions of the coastal waters of Costa Rica, Panama, and Colombia as described above. Strong and gusty winds, and rough seas may accompany this activity. For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse to locally strong offshore of the Papagayo region through much of the week, mainly at night into the early morning hours, building seas locally to rough at times. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend, locally moderate to fresh out of the N-NE in the Gulf of Panama to the Azuero Peninsula at times. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain active across the waters mainly S of 09N through at least Wed evening. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Mainly a broad ridge extends across the waters N of the monsoon trough to 20N. This pattern supports gentle to moderate mainly NE trades across the waters N of the monsoon trough, except moderate to fresh from 09N to 20N and W of 120W. Seas are mainly 5-7 ft seas in mixed long period southerly and northerly swell. Mainly gentle E-SE winds prevail S of the monsoon trough, along with 6-7 ft seas, except 7-9 ft seas in southerly swell S of the Equator and W of 100W. Active convection is present near much of the monsoon trough axis as described above. For the forecast, the ridge will weaken slightly ahead of an approaching weak cold front currently just W of 30N140W. The associated weakened pressure gradient will support moderate trades, fresh at times, N of the ITCZ to about 22N and W of 120W today, with seas of 6-7 ft across this area, locally to 8 ft tonight. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere during the week. New high pressure will begin to build across the region from the NW early Wed through Fri to produce fresh trade winds S of 23N and W of 125W, with seas building 7-9 ft. N winds are expected to strengthen slightly to fresh to strong across the NE and N-central waters by the weekend, with seas building there as a result. Rough seas to around 8 ft in southerly swell will continue across the far southwestern waters S of the Equator and W of 100W, and will persist there tonight. Seas of around 8 ft may continue across this same area through the end of the week and into the weekend.