Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Dec 24 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0905 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will support fresh to near gale-force northerly gap winds and moderate to rough seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the end of the week. Winds in Tehuantepec will pulse to gale-force through early this morning and tonight. Seas will peak around 11 ft (3.5 M) with the strongest winds. Conditions will improve by the weekend. Northern Waters Gale Warning: A cold front enters the basin near 30N125W and extends southwestward to 21N131W. Strong to locally gale-force winds are in the vicinity of the front, especially north of 25N and west of 119W. The gale-force winds will shift north of our waters in the next few hours. Large NW swell is producing seas of 12-15 ft in the far NW waters and greater than 8 ft north of 19N and west of 120W. A second low and frontal boundary, currently well north of the area, will swing by just north of our waters today into Thu, dragging the frontal boundary across the northern waters. Gale force winds south of the low will impact the northern waters, mainly N of 29N today into tonight. The low will shift northward, with gale force winds shifting N of the area late tonight. The low will then weaken Thu into Fri, with winds over the discussion area diminishing below strong speeds Thu night. This system will generate a new set of large NW swell, which will reinforce the very rough seas generated from the first gale force system. Combined seas of 12 to 19 ft (3.5-5.5 M) will spread over the northern waters, covering much of the waters N of 24N and W of 125W by Thu before starting to subside. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N77W to 06N90W to 06N105W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N116W to beyond 09N140W. No significant convection is noted near the monsoon trough or ITCZ. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details on a Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, an eastward-moving cold front is located about 360 miles west of Guadalupe Island. Fresh to strong southerly winds are occurring ahead of the frontal boundary, affecting the offshore waters of Baja California Norte, especially west of Guadalupe Island. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a cold front approaching the offshore waters of Baja California Norte will support fresh to strong southerly winds today. Northwest swell will propagate into the waters north of Punta Eugenia today into Thu. A reinforcing swell will spread rough seas across the offshore waters of the Baja California peninsula by the end of the week into the weekend. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California tonight into Thu. Moderate to fresh NW winds are expected in the central and southern Gulf of California Thu night into the weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The extensive subtropical ridge centered north of the NW Caribbean sustains moderate to fresh easterly trade winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, extending downstream to 90W. Seas in these waters are 5-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh norther winds and seas of 2-4 ft are found in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will support pulsing fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo over the next several days. Mainly gentle to moderate north winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama during the period, occasionally reaching fresh speeds at night. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section for more details on the Gale Warning in the northern waters. Aside for the Gale Warning in the northern waters, a well-defined surface trough is noted in the trade waters along 113W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to near gale-force easterly winds east of the trough. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Farther east, moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring north of the monsoon trough and east of 110W. In the remainder of the area, winds are moderate or weaker along with moderate seas. For the forecast, aside from the gale warning discussed above, the fresh to strong winds and locally rough seas due to the trough in the trades waters will diminish today. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or weaker through the period. Large NW swell generated from the two gale force systems will spread rough seas SE across the discussion waters. Seas greater than 8 ft will cover much of the waters N of 10N and W of 110W on Sat before seas start to subside. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas may develop late this weekend as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge and another surface trough.