Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Jun 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad and elongated area of low pressure, Invest EP95, continues to produce a large area of convection across the tropical eastern Pacific, about the monsoon trough and a poorly defined 1005 mb center located near 13N125W. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are noted north of this feature from 13N to 19N between 120W and 131W. Refer to the INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH section for more details on convection. Gradual development of this system is expected during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression is likely to form tonight or on Wednesday while the system moves generally northwestward and then northward. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive by the end of the week, ending its chances of development. This system has a high chance for tropical cyclone formation during the next 7 days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 110W from 17N southward, and moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 16N between 107W and 115W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends from 10.5N75W to 05N80W to 07N89W, then transitions to ITCZ continuing on to 07N107W. The monsoon trough then resumes from 08N111W through EP95 at 13N125W to 04.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 02N to 07N E of 88W, from 05.5N to 11N between 91W and 103W, and from 03.5N to 09N between 129W and 140W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 18N between 107W and 122W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is about EP95 from 09.5N to 16N between 121W and 132W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific southwestward through 30N131W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This pressure pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in NW swell across the Baja California waters, with 7 to 8 ft seas across the outer waters of Baja Norte. Inside the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh SW to W gap winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present in the northern Gulf, while gentle to moderate S to W winds and seas at 2 to 3 ft generally prevail across the rest of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds dominate the remaining waters from the Revillagigedo Islands to near Salina Cruz, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in primarily cross-equatorial S swell. A narrow channel of fresh N gap winds continues across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending offshore to near 14.5N. Seas are 6 to 7 ft across this area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms near the coast of western Oaxaca and Guerrero overnight has diminished significantly in recent hours. For the forecast, the broad surface ridge extending southwestward across the eastern Pacific to near the Revillagigedo Islands will persist today, then begin to drift westward and weaken slightly tonight through the remainder of the week. This pattern will produce gentle to moderate winds across the Baja waters through Fri, with locally fresh winds possibly each late afternoon and evening. Moderate NW swell moving across these waters will maintain moderate seas, except rough seas for the far western offshore waters of Baja Norte through Thu. A narrow channel of fresh N to NE gap winds will continue to pulse to strong, and sustain moderate to rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region from the nighttime to late morning hours each night and morning through Sat. Moderate to fresh W to SW gap winds are also expected in the northern Gulf of California today through Wed morning. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue to dominate the Papagayo region and extending offshore to near 90W and northward across coastal Nicaragua. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across this area. Moderate N winds continue across the Gulf of Panama and extend southward to near 05N, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell prevail across the remainder central America and Colombia offshore waters N of 02N. Gentle to moderate S winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in cross- equatorial S swell dominate waters S of 02N between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Refer to the INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH section for more detail on convection in the region, primarily extending from Colombia westward to 88W. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong gap winds and moderate to rough seas will continue across the Papagayo region through the weekend, as a strong ridge persists north of the region. NE to E swell generated by these winds are expected to maintain moderate to locally rough seas well downstream to beyond 90W. Farther south, cross-equatorial southerly swell will keep moderate to locally rough seas near the Galapagos Islands and off Ecuador through Thu morning. Periods of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms will persist near the Colombia coast, and across the southern offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama through this evening, then spread northward late tonight and Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section about Invest Area EP95. A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific southeastward through 30N131W to near the Revillagigedo Islands, and is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds, and 6 to 8 ft seas in N to NE swell, north of the ITCZ and west of 120W, and outside the area near Invest EP95. East of 120W and north of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 6 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swell prevail. Light to gentle winds and seas at 6 to 7 ft in mixed moderate swell are noted near and south of the ITCZ to near 04N. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds with 6 to 8 ft seas in cross-equatorial S and SE swell prevail elsewhere south of 04N. For the forecast, regardless of development on EP95, a gradual increase of winds and seas will continue along the northern portion of this area of low pressure this week, as a broad high pressure ridge persists north of the area. Outside of this system, little changes are anticipated north of the ITCZ for the next several days. South of the ITCZ, a gradual decrease in both winds and seas will occur by Wed.