Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Nov 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing over the northwestern Caribbean extends southwestward across northern portions of Central America and into the tropical eastern Pacific. This feature will interact with enhanced low- level moisture and onshore flow south of the monsoon trough over the next several days. This will favor heavy precipitation developing across Central America starting today and lasting through Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected across southern and western portions of Costa Rica, Panama, and southern Nicaragua, with the bulk of precipitation occurring today through Thursday. Heavy rainfall may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your local weather agency and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N73W to 11N82W to low pres near 08N90.5W 1009 mb to 04.5N94W to 08N115W to 04.5N127W to low pres near 08N135.5W 1009 mb to beyond 05.5N140W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from 00N to 12N E of 96W, and from 02S to 13N between between 96W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to locally fresh N-NW winds continue through the full length of the Gulf of California this afternoon, and extend to Las Tres Marias, as high pressure is building toward the region, ahead of an approaching cold front. Seas in the Gulf are 2 to 4 ft north portions and 4 to 6 ft across the southern half to offshore of Las Tres Marias. Mainly moderate N-NW to N winds prevail across the Baja offshore waters, with fresh winds near the coast of Baja Sur. New NW swell is entering the regional waters, building seas to 6 to 8 ft across the Baja Norte waters and 5 to 7 ft across the Baja Sur waters. Elsewhere, across the Mexican offshore waters, gentle winds prevail, with moderate seas in SW swell. For the forecast, high pressure W of Baja California will maintain a ridge across the region, supporting moderate to fresh NW winds over the Gulf of California and Baja Surf waters through this evening, and across the Baja Norte waters through Wed night. Large NW swell will build across the regional waters today and tonight, impacting the Baja waters through Thu. The next pulse of large NW swell will reach the Baja waters beginning early Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Low pressure of 1009 mb is along the monsoon trough near 08N90.5W. A broad zone of moderate to fresh S to SW winds has developed from the equator to the trough between 84W and 94W, and is producing scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection from 00N to 12N E of 96W, impacting the near and offshore waters of Nicaragua and NW Costa Rica, as well as the waters of Panama and Colombia. Seas across the area are generally 5 to 8 ft in SW swell, and locally higher near thunderstorms. Moderate or weaker winds are north of the monsoon trough, with seas of 5 to 7 ft, highest downstream of Papagayo. For the forecast, the low pressure along the monsoon trough will gradually drift northeastward and slowly weaken through the end of the week, with associated winds and seas slowly abating. Very active showers and thunderstorms are expected across the area waters for the next few days. See the Special Features Section above. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A stalling cold front extends from 30N127W to 26N140W. Ahead of it, a weak 1023 mb high is centered near 27N130W. Behind the front, moderate N to NE winds are present. S of the high, between 23N and the monsoon trough, moderate to locally fresh trades prevail W of 115W. Along the monsoon trough at 08N135.5W, a 1009 mb low center is helping to producing fresh E winds well to its north, extending to 22N, and scattered thunderstorms within 240 nm NW of the low. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds prevail. Large NW swell is propagating into the region, with seas of 9 to 13 ft now N of the front, and seas to 8 ft and higher now extending south to 12N and W of 125W. Elsewhere, moderate seas in mixed NW and SW swell prevail. For the forecast, the front will become stationary tonight and dissipate. The associated NW swell will continue spreading through the region, bringing rough to very rough seas N of 10N and W of 115W through mid-week, before being reinforced by new swell starting early Thu. Environmental conditions appear generally favorable for gradual development of the aforementioned low pressure near 08N135.5W, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle to latter portions of this week as it moves westward to west-northwestward around 10 kt, out of the Eastern Pacific basin, and into the Central Pacific basin W of 140W. There is a low chance of tropical formation of this system over the next 48 hours and high chance over the next 7 days. Looking ahead, on Fri and Sat merging NW and SE swell may produce 8-9 ft seas close to the equator.