Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jun 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 87W, south of 19N, moving westward at 20 kt. Scattered moderate convection is present north of 03N and east of 88W. A tropical wave is along 94W, south of 15N, drifting westward at 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 02N to 14N and between 90W and 99W. A tropical wave is along 104W, south of 17N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 03N to 15N and between 99W and 115W. A tropical wave is along 119W, south of 18N, drifting westward at 5 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N115W to 07N129W. The ITCZ extends from 07N129W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is found from 02N to 09N and west of 121W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to locally strong NW winds in the Baja California offshore waters. Seas are 5-7 ft in these waters. The strongest winds are found north of Punta Eugenia. Locally fresh NW winds are noted in the central Gulf of California as wind from the Pacific waters move through the mountain passages. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, ridging over the eastern Pacific will support moderate to fresh NW winds off Baja California through Mon night, and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere. Winds off Baja California will diminish starting Tue as the high pressure weakens ahead of a trough moving into the area from off southern California. This pattern will also support moderate to fresh southerly winds across the northern Gulf Mon night ahead of the trough. Looking ahead, expect fresh to strong northerly gap winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec by midweek. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate to fresh easterly trade winds are present in the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending downstream to 89W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Farther south, moderate southerly winds and moderate seas are occurring south of 03N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas are expected in the Papagayo region into early next week. Winds will freshen to strong speeds starting late Mon with seas building to 8 or 9 ft by late Tue. The gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will produce seas to 9 ft in the far offshore waters of Guatemala by midweek. Meanwhile, mainly moderate southerly winds and moderate to locally rough seas will prevail across the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through at least midweek. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong subtropical ridge centered well north of our waters extends into the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. Gentle to moderate easterly winds and moderate seas are found north of 10N and west of 115W. Meanwhile, moderate SE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are noted south of 05N. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, additional pulses of SW swell will continue to propagate across the forecast waters east of 125W generating moderate to locally rough seas. Otherwise, little changes are expected in winds and seas through early next week as a ridge remains in control of the weather pattern across the area. Looking ahead, most weather models are indicating broad low pressure may form along the monsoon trough between 90W and 100W possibly starting mid week, although there is a low chance of tropical cyclone development.