Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jan 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A 1033 mb high is analyzed over NE Mexico, maintaining a strong pressure gradient over the Tehuantepec region. Recent scatterometer data indicate winds of 35 to 40 kt continuing through the Tehuantepec region, with very rough seas of up to 18 ft. Powerful gap winds will continue today, then decrease some tonight into Tue as the high pressure weakens and slides to the east, but will remain above gale force through Tue night. Very rough seas generated by these gales will extend southward to as far as 08N tonight into Tue. Conditions will briefly improve Wed before a strong cold front moves through the Gulf of America Wed night, ushering in another round of gale- force gap winds as early as Thursday morning. Mariners are urged to take the necessary action to avoid the hazardous marine conditions brought on by the storm and gale- force winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N86W to 06N96W. The ITCZ extends from 06N96W to 06N105W to 07N119W where it is broken by a surface trough and 1012 mb low near 11N122W. The ITCZ then resumes from 10N124W to 13N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 81W and 97W, and also from 10N to 15N between 125W and 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. The pressure gradient between the high pressure over Mexico and a trough in the Gulf of California region is bringing fresh to strong northwest winds to the northern and central sections of the Gulf of California. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over the northern and central sections of the Gulf of California and 3 to 5 ft over the southern section. Light to gentle winds are present elsewhere over the offshore waters. Slight to moderate seas in long-period northwest swell are over these same waters. For the forecast, gale force winds and very rough seas will prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Tue night. By Thu morning, gale force northerly gap winds will resume in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region due to a strong ridge that will develop over the Gulf of America and across eastern Mexico in the wake of a strong cold front. Another round of gale force winds is possible in the Tehuantepec region this weekend. Mariners are urged to take the necessary action to avoid the hazardous marine conditions brought on by the gale force winds. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the region continues to support strong northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region along with moderate to rough seas at times. Rough seas generated by gales in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are impacting the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Fresh N winds are noted in the Gulf of Panama. Moderate or weaker winds and slight seas are elsewhere. Low pressure along the coast of NW Colombia is generated scattered moderate convection within 120 nm of shore. For the forecast, high pressure north of the region will support fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region through the week. Pulsing moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama through Fri night. The strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec has generated rough seas over the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. These seas will subside on Tue night as the northwest swell decays. Otherwise, gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere for the next few days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough is analyzed from 07N110W to 11N111W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen in satellite imagery from 07N to 14N between 104W and 112W. Broad ridging associated with a 1030 mb high pressure centered offshore northern California is dominating waters N of 19N and W of 120W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and the ITCZ continues to support a broad area of fresh trade winds from just north of the ITCZ to near 25N. Seas in this region are 7 to 10 ft, in a mix of wind waves and long period NW swell. Farther N, the NW swell is causing rough seas to continue. N of 05N and E of 110W, fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas are ongoing in association with gale-force Tehuantepec gap winds, described in the Special Features section above. Elsewhere across the forecast waters, winds and seas are moderate or weaker. For the forecast, moderate to fresh trades will continue across the western part of the area through midweek. Rough seas in that region will gradually subside during that period. Otherwise, the ongoing gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will bring rough to very rough seas to the waters from 04N to 13N between 90W and 110W into Tue night. A set of long-period northwest swell is expected to begin to intrude into the far western waters starting Wed night.