Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu Nov 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0835 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 06N95W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N103W to 07N120W and to 10N136W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 08N and east of 87W and south of 15N and west of 101W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured northerly winds of 18- 26 kt across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds are due to a 1024 mb high pressure system over the southern United States. Seas in this waters are 4-7 ft. The satellite-derived data also showed moderate to locally fresh NW winds in the northern and central Gulf of California. Meanwhile, a weak pressure gradient is present in the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. Decaying NW swell is producing seas of 5-8 ft across much of the area, except for slight seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh northerly winds and rough seas around 8 ft will pulse to strong at night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri night. The next Tehuantepec gap wind event is forecast to begin early next week and continue through much of the next week. Winds may reach gale-force starting late Tue. Meanwhile, a cold front will move across the offshore waters of Baja California Fri, bringing fresh winds and a new batch of rough seas approaching 12 ft. Fresh to locally strong winds may also briefly impact the northern Gulf of California Fri. Then, a larger NW swell arriving Sat will produce high seas to 20 ft. Rough seas will reach all the way to past 100W by early next week, while additional and reinforcing NW swell sets continue to arrive. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the area sustains moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and seas of 2-4 ft in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent, except locally rough seas SW of the Galapagos Islands in merging long period SW and NW swells. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE-E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will diminish later today. Moderate to fresh winds may return to the Papagayo region by the end of the weekend into early next week, possibly reaching strong speeds by late Mon night. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in merging SW and NW swell will prevail, except locally rough SSW of the Galapagos Islands through Fri night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front continues to move quickly southeastward across the NW waters, extending from 30N131W to 24N140W. The tight pressure gradient between a 1030 mb high pressure system near 31N163W and the aforementioned front sustains fresh to strong NW-N winds behind the front, along with seas of 8-18 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 30N140W. A recent altimeter satellite pass captured seas up to 19 ft just west of 30N140W. In the western trade waters, a surface trough analyzed from 16N133W to 08N140W is producing a large area of showers and isolated thunderstorms. Moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and rough seas are found from 04N to 22N and west of 128W. In the southern waters, moderate to fresh SE winds and rough seas are found south of 02N. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or lighter and a decaying NW swell is found across much of the remainder of the basin, supporting seas of 6-8 ft. For the forecast, the aforementioned strong cold front will move across the northern waters today into early Fri, bringing with it fresh to strong winds on either side of the front, and very large seas in NW swell north of 20N through Fri. Another cold front will sweep across the area Fri into the weekend, bringing even larger reinforcing NW swell, possibly reaching 24 ft along 30N. This set of swell with seas of 8 ft or greater will cover the waters N of 05N and W of 110W by late Sat night, then covering all of the waters W of 105W. Yet another set of large swell will arrive Sun, with seas of 8 ft or greater across the entire waters W of 105W by late Sun night. Meanwhile, the mixed swell over the equatorial waters will diminish by the weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front may move into the NW waters by the end of the weekend into early next week bringing a large area of fresh to strong winds behind it as high pressure builds in.