Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Nov 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1450 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 1009 mb low pressure in the SW Caribbean Sea near 10N75W to across Costa Rica to 09.5N85W to 02N120W to 1007 mb low pressure near 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 00N to 04N between 78.5W and 83.5W, from 01N to 08N between 105W and 115W, from 11N to 15N between 115W and 122W, and from 00N to 12.5N between 125W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure north of the area continues to support fresh to near gale-force northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, spreading downstream to 13N96W. Meanwhile, broad ridging extends southeastward across the Baja California waters to the Revillagigedo Islands, allowing for moderate or lighter winds in the rest of the Mexican offshore waters, except moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds from the central Gulf of California to near Cabo Corrientes. Long-period NW swell is producing seas of 7-10 ft in the offshore waters of Baja California. Elsewhere, slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh northerly winds and rough seas around 8 ft will pulse to strong to locally near gale-force at night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the remainder of the week. Rough seas in NW swell in the Baja California waters will diminish through Thu. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas approaching 12 ft are expected to reach the offshore waters of Baja California by early Fri, associated with a frontal system. Fresh to locally strong winds may also briefly impact the northern Gulf of California Fri. Meanwhile, a larger NW swell arriving Sat will produce high seas to 20 ft. Rough seas will reach all the way to near 100W by early next week, while additional and reinforcing NW swell sets continue to arrive. The next Tehuantepec gap wind event may occur early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A broad subtropical ridge centered over the Gulf of America and the western Atlantic extends southward and is supporting moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds and seas of 4-6 ft across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Farther east, moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are found in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent, except locally rough seas SW of the Galapagos Islands in merging long period SW and NW swells. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds will funnel across the Papagayo region and extend to 90W through tonight, then diminish for the end of the week into the weekend. Moderate to fresh winds may return to the Papagayo region by the end of the weekend into early next week. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama tonight, and then again by the end of the weekend. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in merging SW and NW swell will prevail, except locally rough SSW of the Galapagos Islands through the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is approaching 30N140W, currently just NW of the area. SW fresh to strong winds and rough seas in NW swell are already pushing slightly SE of 30N140W ahead of the front. To the S, 1007 mb low pressure is analyzed along the monsoon trough near 06.5N140W. Active nearby convection is described above with the monsoon trough section. The pressure gradient between these lower pressures and broad ridging in place ahead of the cold front is supporting moderate to fresh winds from roughly 12N to 20N to the W of 120W. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the open waters, locally fresh S of the Equator. Meanwhile, old long-period NW swell with seas of 7-10 ft covers most the waters N of 05N and W of 110W. Merging SW and NW long-period swells support seas of 7-10 ft across the waters S of 05N and W of 98W. For the forecast, high pressure combined with lower pressure over the W-central waters will support moderate to locally strong easterly winds and rough seas across the trade waters through the rest of the week. A strong cold front will reach our NW border at 30N140W later this morning, bringing with it fresh to strong winds on either side of the front, and very large seas in NW swell north of 20N through the end of the week. Even larger reinforcing NW swell may arrive Fri afternoon to the NW waters, possibly reaching 25 ft along 30N. This set of swell with seas of 8 ft or greater will cover the waters N of 05N and W of 110W by late Sat night, then covering all of the waters W of 105W. Yet another set of large swell will arrive Sun, with seas of 8 ft or greater across the entire waters W of 105W by late Sun night. Meanwhile, the mixed swell over the equatorial waters will also persist and mix with the NW swells for the next several days. Looking ahead, a cold front may move into the NW waters by the end of the weekend into early next week bringing a large area of fresh to strong winds behind it as high pressure builds in.