Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun May 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A late-season Tehuantepec gap wind event will last from this morning through early Mon morning, as a ridge persists across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico, behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of America. These gap winds will reach minimal gale-force through tonight, along with seas peaking at 10 to 12 ft. As the ridge shifts eastward on Mon, both winds and seas should subside quickly and allow marine conditions to rapidly improve. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season occurs in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring in late March or early April. Occasionally, gale-force events may occur as early as September, and as late as May. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from near the Costa Rica/Panama border to 07N96W. The ITCZ continues from 07N96W to 06N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 02N to 10N between 82W and 94W. Similar convective activity is noted from 10n to 12n between 122W and 128W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please read the Special Features section above for details. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds and moderate seas. In the Gulf of California, mainly light to gentle winds and slight seas are noted. Elsewhere along the Mexican forecast waters, and outside of the Tehuantepec region, light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed swells prevail. For the forecast, aside from the gale conditions in the Tehunatepec region, fresh to strong S to SW winds and moderate seas are expected in the northern Gulf of California this evening and tonight. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas are expected. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds seas are noted south of the equatorial trough while W to NW winds are to the north of it. Seas are in general 3 to 5 ft in primarily SW swell. Meanwhile, scattered moderate convection continues to develop across the offshore forecast waters from Colombia to Nicaragua. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are likely near thunderstorms. For the forecast, abundant tropical moisture and surface convergence will persist across the offshore waters from Colombia to Nicaragua, including the Gulf of Panama, through early this week, continuing to support the development of showers and thunderstorms across the area. Otherwise, fresh easterly winds are expected in the Papagayo region tonight through Mon night. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas, in primarily southerly swell, are expected through midweek. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong winds aloft are advecting abundant multilayer clouds over the NW waters into Baja California Norte. A ridge continues to dominate the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 110W, including the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh trade winds mainly W of 120W. Latest scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these wind speeds. Elsewhere under the influence of the ridge, gentle to moderate winds are noted. Outside of the trade wind zone, mainly moderate seas are observed. High pressure building southeastward from north of the Hawaiian Islands is going to tighten the pressure gradient north of the ITCZ. In response, trade winds north of the ITCZ to about 18N and west of 130W are going to increase to fresh to strong speeds strong Mon through Tue, also sustaining the rough seas. A combination of NW and southerly swells should support moderate seas for the remaining waters through most of the week.