Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Oct 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Trudy is centered near 19.1N 106.8W at 18/1500 UTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are near 34 ft (10 M). Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed within 180 nm of the center. A general northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a turn toward the west- northwest tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Trudy will remain near the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico through this evening and then move south of Baja California Sur on Monday and Tuesday. Little change in strength is expected this morning, but rapid weakening is forecast to begin by tonight. Swells generated by Trudy are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Trudy. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure over NE Mexico is forcing powerful gale force winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds are supporting very rough seas. Winds today will be near storm-force, with seas peaking around 18 ft. Gales and very rough seas will prevail through Tue night. Strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas will then persist through the remainder of the week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N99W and from 09N107W to 08N124W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N127W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 14N and east of 98W and from 03N to 10N and between 105W and 120W. Similar convection is seen from 04N to 10N and west of 127W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Trudy off SW Mexico and the Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Away from Hurricane Trudy and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a moderate pressure gradient between strong high pressure over the High Plains of the western United States and lower pressures in NW Mexico supports moderate to locally fresh northerly winds in the waters of the Gulf of California north of 27N and also off Baja California Norte, especially north of Punta Eugenia. These winds were confirmed by a recent scatterometer satellite pass. Seas in these waters are 3- 6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Hurricane Trudy will move to 19.5N 106.9W this afternoon, 20.2N 107.5W Mon morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 20.4N 107.9W Mon afternoon, 20.7N 108.5W Tue morning, weaken to a remnant low near 21.1N 109.2W Tue afternoon, and 21.6N 109.7W Wed morning. Trudy will dissipate early Thu. Aside from Trudy, strong high pressure over NE Mexico is forcing powerful gale force winds through the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds are supporting very rough seas. Winds today will be near storm- force, with seas peaking around 20 ft. Gales and very rough seas will prevail tonight through Tue night. Fresh to near gale- force winds and rough seas will persist through the remainder of next week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form well offshore of southern Mexico within a couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form around the middle of next week while it moves westward to west- northwestward, well south of Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low over the next 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong high pressure over NE Mexico supports a large area of fresh to strong gale-force northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh to strong northerly winds are spilling into the offshore waters of Guatemala, along with rough to very rough seas to 15 ft. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or lighter winds prevail. Seas of 6-8 ft are occurring between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, while seas of 3-6 ft are found in the rest of the basin. For the forecast, a strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will support fresh to strong N winds and very rough seas across the offshore Guatemala waters into tonight, with rough seas then continuing through Tue night. Large SW swell will gradually decay south of the equator into tonight. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail during the next several days. Looking ahead, winds may pulse to fresh to locally strong in the Gulf of Papagayo starting midweek into late this week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A strong ridge centered well north of our waters extends southward, supporting moderate to locally fresh easterly winds north of 06N and west of 125W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. In the eastern waters, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas have extended as far south of 08N and between 94W and 98W in association with the strong gap wind event occurring in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and rough seas are found south of the monsoon trough and east of 125W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough to very rough seas will affect the eastern waters through Mon in association with the strong gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, large SW swell near the Equator will continue to diminish over the next day or so. Looking ahead, a cold front will move S of 30N by early Tue, bringing fresh to locally strong N winds Tue into Wed N of 27N, with rough to very rough seas N of 20N Tue into Thu.