Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Oct 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Trudy is centered near 19.5N 107.0W at 18/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are near 32 ft (9.5 M). Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed within about 120 nm of the center. A general northwestward motion is expected today, followed by a turn toward the west- northwest tonight. On the forecast track, the center of Trudy will move away from the coast of mainland Mexico this evening, then move south of Baja California Sur Mon and Tue. Trudy is a Category Two Hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Speed Scale, but rapid weakening is expected to begin tonight, and Trudy could degenerate into a post-tropical low as early as late Tue. Swells generated by Trudy are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Trudy. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: High pressure continuing to settle southward into Mexico will force gale force gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Tue night, with resulting very rough seas. Winds to near storm-force are likely at times into Mon, with seas peaking near 16 ft. Strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas will then persist through the remainder of the week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N100W and from 10N110W to 07N125W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N127W to 03N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 14N and east of 98W and from 03N to 10N and between 110W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Trudy and on a Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between high pressure North America and the lower pressure closer to Trudy is leading to moderate NW winds in the Gulf of California. Winds for the remaining waters are light to gentle. Seas away from the Trudy and the Gulf of Tehuantepec are moderate, except slight in the northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, Hurricane Trudy is near 19.5N 107.0W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 5 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 974 mb. Trudy will move to 19.9N 107.4W Mon morning, 20.1N 108.0W Mon afternoon, then weaken to a tropical storm near 20.3N 108.7W Tue morning. Tropical Storm Trudy will be at 20.7N 109.3W Tue afternoon, weaken to a remnant low near 21.4N 109.7W Wed morning, and reach just south of Baja California Sur Wed afternoon. Trudy will dissipate Thu afternoon. High pressure continuing to settle southward into Mexico will force gale force gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec into Tue night, with resulting very rough seas. Winds to near storm-force are likely at times into Mon, with seas peaking near 16 ft. Strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas will then persist through the remainder of the week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form well offshore of southern Mexico during the next day or two. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is expected to form around the middle of this week while it moves westward to west- northwestward, well south of Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low over the next 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong winds and very rough seas in association with significant gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are impacting waters well offshore Guatemala. Otherwise, moderate seas and mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds well downwind of Gulf of Tehuantepec gales will continue to impact waters offshore Guatemala tonight, with very rough seas gradually decaying to rough into Mon. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas will generally prevail through the week.. Looking ahead, winds may pulse to fresh to locally strong in the Gulf of Papagayo starting midweek into late this week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between high pressure in the north Pacific and lower pressure of the ITCZ and Monsoon Trough is leading to moderate trades for waters W of 125W, with moderate seas. Gap winds originating from the Gulf of Tehuantepec have extending southward, bringing strong winds and rough seas to waters N of 07N between 92W and 101W. Long-period southerly swell is leading to occasionally rough seas along and south of the equator. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned gap winds will continue to bring periods of strong N winds and rough seas to waters N of 05N between 92W and 103W early this week. A cold front will move S of 30N Mon night, bringing fresh to strong winds behind it N of 25N through Wed. A couple rounds of NW swell both ahead of and behind this front will bring rough to very rough seas to waters N of 20N from Mon night through Thu. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form well offshore of southern Mexico during the next day or two. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is expected to form around the middle of this week while it moves westward to west- northwestward, well south of Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low over the next 7 days.