Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Feb 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough is analyzed from 07N78W to the Equator at 81W to 03S87W. Another trough extends from 06N90W to 00N96W to 05S102W. The ITCZ is south of the Equator and runs from 05S102W to 04S120W. Convection is limited. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting gentle to moderate NW winds with moderate seas. A partial scatterometer pass indicate N winds of 15 kt across the Tehuantepec region and downwind to about 13N. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere, including the Gulf of California. Moderate seas prevail over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, with slight seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California the remainder of the week producing mainly gentle to moderate NW winds with moderate seas. Locally fresh winds are expected N of Punta Eugenia tonight and Thu. Similar wind conditions are forecast N of Cabo San Lazaro Sun night through Mon night as the pressure gradient tightens across the area between a stronger high pressure to the W and lower pressures over northern Mexico. In the Gulf of California, gentle to locally moderate winds and slight seas will prevail. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are forecast elsewhere through the upcoming weekend. Fresh northerly winds are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon and Mon night. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds have diminished below gale force in the Gulf of Papagayo and the Gale Warning is allowed to expire. Recent satellite derived wind data show a plume of fresh to strong NE winds extending downwind from the Gulf of Papagayo to near 07N96W with seas of 8 to 11 ft. In addition, scatterometer data also indicate moderate to locally fresh N winds across the Gulf of Panama, and fresh to locally strong NE winds downstream of the Azuero Peninsula to about 02N84W where seas are in the 5 to 8 ft range. Seas are finally subsiding across the outer waters of Guatemala and El Salvador as the gap wind events in the Tehuantepec and Papagayo regions are also dimishing. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected at night in the Papagayo area through Fri night, then again Mon night as high pressure strengthens N of area. Fresh to locally strong NE winds, and moderate to rough seas, will prevail downwind of the Gulf of Panama and just S of the Azuero Peninsula through tonight. Seas generated in the gap wind regions of Tehuantepec and Papagayo will continue to propagate across the waters S of 10N between 90W and 115W tonight while gradually subsiding. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is over the NW corner of the forecast region and extends from a 1009 mb low pressure located near 30N137W. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas in NW to N swell are noted on either side of the front N of 26N. A 1021 mb high is centered near 32N124W. The associated ridge covers the forecast waters N of 15N W of 110W, including the Revillagigedo Islands. An area of fresh to strong E to SE winds is observed on scatterometer data in the SW part of the ridge, particularly from 07N to 17N W of 135W where seas are 8 to 10 ft based on altimeter data. Seas generated in the gap wind regions of Tehuantepec and Papagayo continue to affect the waters S of 11N between 90W and 112W. A set of NW swell is propagating across the NW waters, mainly W of a line from 30N132W to 28N132W to 21N140W with seas in the 8 to 11 ft range. Rough seas are also noted from 06N to 20N and W of 130W. Elsewhere, seas of 5 to 8 ft prevail. For the forecast, the low pressure will lift northward while the associated cold front will continue to move across the NW waters, reaching from 30N133W to 20N140W by Thu afternoon, then becoming stationary over the same area by Fri afternoon. As the low pressure moves away from the forecast region, the fresh to strong winds associated with the front will diminish over the forecast waters. The NW swell impacting the west-central and NW waters will gradually subside over the next 24 to 48 hours.