Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Oct 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 20.2N 113.8W at 04/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 75 nm of center. Rachel is moving toward the west-northwest. A turn toward the west is expected later today, and that motion is forecast to continue through the middle of the week. Fluctuations in strength are possible today, but Rachel is expected to slowly weaken beginning on Monday. Swells generated by Rachel will continue to affect the coast of the Baja California Peninsula through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 08N90W to 14N106W, then resumes W of Rachel near 11N120W to beyond 07N140W. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 15N between 88W and 92W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 04N to 09N W of 126W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Rachel, gentle to moderate winds, and moderate to rough seas in mixed swell, prevail over the offshore waters of Mexico. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are in the Gulf of California. Seas of 8 ft or greater generated by Rachel are impacting the entrance to the Gulf of California, the offshore waters of Baja California Sur, and the offshore waters of southwestern Mexico west of 105W. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel Rachel will move to 20.3N 114.7W this evening, 20.5N 115.8W Mon morning, 20.7N 117.5W Mon evening, 20.7N 119.0W Tue morning, 20.9N 120.5W Tue evening, and 21.3N 122.2W Wed morning. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near 22.2N 125.2W early Thu. Seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, and mainly south of Punta Eugenia, through at least Mon night. Rough seas will persist over the southern Gulf of California, including the entrance to the Gulf through tonight. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region through tonight, then winds and seas may increase early this week as a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the next day or so just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail across the region. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with mostly moderate seas through the forecast period. Winds and seas may increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador next week as a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop over the next day or so just to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of Hurricane Rachel, a ridge dominates the northern forecast waters, mainly N of 20N and W of 120W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail S of the monsoon trough. Rough seas associated with Rachel dominate the waters from 11N to 25N between 106W and 118W. Moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel Rachel will move to 20.3N 114.7W this evening, 20.5N 115.8W Mon morning, 20.7N 117.5W Mon evening, 20.7N 119.0W Tue morning, 20.9N 120.5W Tue evening, and 21.3N 122.2W Wed morning. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near 22.2N 125.2W early Thu. Rough seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the forecast waters roughly from 10N to 27N between 105W and 120W the remainder of the weekend before starting to shift westward along with the system.