Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jul 06 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along a position from 17.5N110W to 05N115W. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is west of the wave to 119W from 08N to 13N, and within 120 nm east of the wave from 08N to 12N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from northwest Colombia southwestward through southern Costa Rica, then northwestward to 10N88W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 06N100W to 08N113W, then resumes at 09N115W to 08N130W and to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from the Equator to 08N west of 132W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 02N to 08N between 115W-126W. SCattered moderate convection is within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 87W-90W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific across the Baja California waters to near 19N115W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and relatively lower pressures over NW Mexico is generally supporting moderate to fresh northwest winds offshore Baja California. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over these waters. Moderate north winds are along the Gulf of Tehuantepec coast and offshore for about 60 nm. Seas are also 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are present per latest scatterometer satellite data along with seas of 4 to 6 ft in long-period south to southwest swell. Inside the Gulf, light to variable winds are over the northern Gulf of California, and southeast to south moderate winds over the rest of the Gulf. Seas are 3 to 4 ft over the Gulf. For the forecast, the surface ridge will continue to strengthen modestly across the area through Tue night, leading to moderate to fresh winds across the Baja California waters. Moderate to fresh gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to pulse at night through Tue night, then increase to strong speeds Wed through early Thu, then at fresh speeds through Fri night. Cross-equatorial southwest swell will reach the waters off southern Mexico on Mon. Expect fresh to strong southerly winds in the northern Gulf of California Thu through Fri. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered moderate convection prevails N of 06N and across Panama, and Costa Rica, and extend northward into the SW Caribbean in the vicinity of the monsoon trough. Fresh to strong NE gap winds continuing across the Papagayo region and extends offshore to 92W, where seas are 5-7 ft. Mostly gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted elsewhere S of 10N, along with seas seas of 4-6 ft in cross-equatorial SW swell. For the forecast, fresh northeast to east gap winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to strong each night through midweek leading to rough seas. Large cross-equatorial southerly swell will move into the waters off Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands late Sun through Tue, building seas to a peak 9 ft, and 6 to 7 ft across much of the remaining waters farther north. The combination of the southerly swell with shorter period seas associated with gap winds will allow combined seas to a peak of 8 ft offshore of northern Central America Tue through Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge continues across the northeast Pacific and north of the area waters tonight, extending southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the remnants of Douglas that is now a trough analyzed from near 28N130W to 25N131W to near 20N130.5W. Latest scatterometer satellite data shows fresh northeast winds within 180 nm west of the trough from 25N to 28N, and within 120 nm east of the trough from 25N to 28N. Seas are to 8 ft in mixed NE and SE swell over these waters. The gradient associated to the ridge generally supports gentle to moderate trades from 09N to 16N west of about 118W, and from 09N to 13N between 110W and 118W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over these waters in mixed swell. Farther east, moderate to fresh northeast to east winds downstream from the Papagayo region are from 08N to 12N between 91W and 105W. Seas are 5 to 6 ft with these winds as noted in the most recent altimeter satellite data over this part of the area. Light to gentle easterly winds are elsewhere east of 110W. Seas of 4 to 6 ft primarily in long- period southwest swell are over this part of the area. Convection is noted with the tropical wave that extends from near 17.5N110W to 05N115W. For the forecast, the remnant trough of Douglas will continue drifting westward for the next few days. The ridge will drift southwestward and persist across the region through early week, supporting moderate to fresh trades well into the tropics. The aforementioned tropical wave will continue moving westward with scattered moderate convection.