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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Feb 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2020 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Large NW Swell: Large NW swell continues to move southeastward across the NW waters this afternoon, behind a cold front which extends from 30N126W to 22.5N140W. Seas of 12 ft and greater have reached as far S as 26N to the W of 133W this afternoon, with peak seas currently around 16 ft near 30N140W. Rough seas of 12 ft and greater will continue to propagate southeastward through tonight, and reach the waters N of 22N and W of 123W by midday Mon, then begin to slowly subside, with seas 12 ft and greater N of 24N and W of 119W by early Tue. Seas will then continue to subside to less than 12 ft by Tue evening, before new N swell enters the northern waters Wed morning, raising seas above 12 ft again Wed through Thu. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 09N83.5W to 04N93W. The ITCZ extends from 04N97W to 00N108W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 08.5N E of 89W to coastal Colombia. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weakening high pressure of 1018 mb near 26N119W continues to produce a broad ridge southeastward to offshore of Cabo Corrientes, while elongated troughing remains just inland across western Mexico. Mostly northerly winds are moderate or weaker across the Baja offshore waters, and central and south portions of the Gulf of California, with fresh winds near the coast of Cabo Corrientes. NW swell is subsiding across the regional waters, with seas of 6 to 8 ft offshore of the Baja California waters, and more moderate seas of 4 to 7 ft elsewhere, except slight inside the Gulf of California. For the forecast, weak high pressure just W of the area along 119W will drift SE through Tue morning and gradually collapse, ahead of a cold front moving into the open waters well W of the area. Moderate winds will continue on either side of Baja California Sur to near Cabo Corrientes through tonight, then pulse moderate to fresh starting Tue. The cold front will reach the Baja Norte waters Mon evening, with fresh to strong SW winds ahead of it in the northern Gulf of California, and west of Baja Norte through early Tue. These winds will diminish as the front moves through Baja California and the northern Gulf of California and gradually dissipates on Tue. High pressure building across the region behind the front will produce fresh to locally strong northerly winds across the waters N of Cabo Corrientes Wed through Thu. NW swell dominating the Baja waters today will subside through early Mon before new large NW swell moves into the waters W of 110W Mon through Wed. Seas are expected to build to 12 ft and greater N of Punta Eugenia Mon evening through Tue evening. Fresh to strong gap winds will return to the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight through Tue morning before diminishing. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure is weakening to the N of the region as a new cold front is moving across the northern Gulf of America. Fresh NE winds continue across the Papagayo region, extending offshore to near 90W. This is generating seas 4 to 6 ft offshore. Gentle northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama become moderate NE winds extending southwestward and beyond the Azuero Peninsula. Moderate or weaker winds, and 3 to 5 ft seas in mixed S and NW swell are elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh NE to E gap winds and moderate seas will persist across the Papagayo region through tonight, then pulse to moderate to fresh Mon, then pulse fresh to strong Mon night through early Thu as high pressure builds across the NW Caribbean. Moderate N to NE winds will generally continue across the Gulf of Panama through the middle of the week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will change little through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on Significant Very Rough NW Swell forecast for the NW waters. A cold front continues to move southeastward over the NW waters, extending from 30N126W to 22.5N140W. Fresh to strong NW winds and building seas are behind the front, and are just below gale force across the far NW waters, with gales N of 30N, as depicted by recent satellite scatterometer data. Seas continue to build behind the front and are near 16 ft near 30N140W. Weak and broad high pressure prevails ahead of the front. Moderate to locally fresh trades are from 03N to 17N between 112W and 140W with moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in fading NW to N swell N of the ITCZ to the front and W of 112W, and 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, other than the Significant Large NW Swell entering the NW waters, the cold front with fresh to strong winds behind it will reach from 30N122W to 19N140W Mon morning, and from near Punta Eugenia to 14N130W by early Tue. Winds N of 20N behind the front will gradually diminish from W to E Mon night through Tue as the front weakens and continues moving eastward, before gradually dissipating. High pressure will build in the wake of the front Tue through Thu as a low to middle-level disturbance develops S of 20N and near 140W. This scenario will produce a broad fresh to strong trades N of the ITCZ and W of 130W late Tue through early Thu, Expect active showers and thunderstorms, with rough to very rough seas in NW swell to accompany these increasing trades.