Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Dec 26 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2105 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Northern Waters Significant Swell: Large northwest swell generated by a storm system that is well north of the area is bringing very rough seas to waters north of 26N and west of about 124W, with seas peaking to around 14 ft (4.5 m) north of 28N and west of 130W. Wave period with these seas is of 11-13 sec. This swell will continue to propagate into the regional waters through Sat, with rough seas reaching as far south as 15N, and as far east as 119W today before gradually subsiding Fri night through Sun. Rough seas of 8 to 12 ft are likely to prevail into the weekend across the offshore waters of Baja California north of about 17N. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 07N98W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N98W to 08N120W and to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is present from 04N to 09N and between 85W and 90W. Similar convection from 06N to 11N and west of 127W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to near gale-force northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec due to a subtropical ridge north of the area. Seas in these waters are 5-8 ft. Farther west, a strong gale center near California sustains a large area of NW swell that is producing seas of 6-10 ft north of Punta Eugenia, especially west of Guadalupe Island. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate seas are found in the central and southern Gulf of California and off Baja California Sur. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the gradient related to high pressure over the Gulf of America will continue to induce fresh to strong northerly gap winds and locally rough seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through Sat morning, then gradually diminishing through Sat afternoon as the high pressure slowly weakens. Gale conditions may be possible in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region starting Mon night. Northwest swell propagating through the waters north of Punta Eugenia will be spreading rough seas southward across the offshore waters of the Baja California peninsula through the weekend. High pressure will begin to build across the Baja waters through the weekend bringing a return to more typical northerly winds. Fresh to locally strong northwest winds are likely to develop in the Gulf of California Sun into Tue as high pressure strengthens across the region. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the Caribbean continues to support moderate to fresh easterly trade winds in the Gulf of Papagayo, extending downstream to 90W. Seas in these waters are 4-7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will continue to support pulsing fresh to locally strong northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sat night, then at mostly fresh speeds afterward. Mostly gentle to moderate north winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama during the period. Gentle or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section for details on significant swell impacting much of the northern waters. A weak pressure gradient dominates the rest of the eastern tropical Pacific outside of the swell region described in the Special Features section. A cold front extends from 30N122W to 24N139W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are found ahead of the front. Moderate to fresh NE-E trade winds and seas of 8-10 ft are found north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 130W. Moderate to occasionally fresh SE winds and seas of 5-8 ft are evident south of the ITCZ and west of 110W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the storm system is forecast to move into California today and dissipate. This will allow for high pressure to begin to build into the regional waters from the NW. Global models suggest that a surface trough or broad low pressure will develop across the waters south of about 22N between 120W and 128W Sun into early next week. This will combine with high pressure building into the region resulting in a rather broad zone of increasing winds reaching to strong speeds roughly from 16N to 26N and west of the Revillagigedo Islands, accompanied by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. Seas may reach 14 ft with these winds as long-period north swell gradually decays across the area. Conditions will improve by midweek.