Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Sep 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Odalys is centered near 13.1N 127.7W at 21/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas are peaking near 18 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 08N to 13N between 125W and 131W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is found elsewhere from 01N to 16N between 120W and 140W. Gradual strengthening is expected to resume on Monday, and Odalys is forecast to become a hurricane by mid-week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Odalys NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Former TD Seventeen-E is now Tropical Storm Polo, which is centered near 15.1N 104.6W at 21/0300 UTC, moving east-northeast at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are near 14 ft. Numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is from 12N to 17N between 100W and 108W. Rapid intensification is forecast over the next few days, and Polo is expected to become a major hurricane by the middle part of the week. Tropical Storm Polo is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 8 inches, with isolated maximum totals up to 12 inches across coastal portions of the Mexican states of Michoacán, Colima, and Jalisco through Thursday. This rainfall may produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Seventeen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 86W, moving westward near 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends from 02N to 10N E of 100W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N87W to 16N98W. It resumes SW of Polo near 13N108W to 09N120W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 112W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on Tropical Storm Polo. Tropical Storm Polo is near 15.1N 104.6W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving east-northeast at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Aside from conditions associated with Tropical Storm Polo, moderate winds and moderate seas are west of the Baja California peninsula. Gentle to moderate winds and slight seas are over the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, Polo will move to 15.4N 103.8W Mon morning, 15.4N 103.1W Mon evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.2N 102.4W Tue morning, 15.5N 102.4W Tue evening, 16.0N 103.0W Wed morning, and 16.7N 103.7W Wed evening. Polo will change little in intensity as it moves near 18.2N 106.0W late Thu. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds will prevail across the offshore Baja California waters through early Fri morning when conditions in Baja California Sur offshores will start to deteriorate due to the proximity of TS Polo. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the region. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail through Thu night across the offshores. Winds and seas will build across the region as a low pressure develops within the monsoon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for details on Tropical Storm Odalys and Tropical Polo. Outside of Odalys and Polo, fresh to strong winds, and rough seas, are over the waters N of the monsoon trough to near 24N and west of 135W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. S of the monsoon trough, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, prevail. For the forecast, Polo will move to 15.4N 103.8W Mon morning, 15.4N 103.1W Mon evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.2N 102.4W Tue morning, 15.5N 102.4W Tue evening, 16.0N 103.0W Wed morning, and 16.7N 103.7W Wed evening. Polo will change little in intensity as it moves near 18.2N 106.0W late Thu. Odalys will move to 14.1N 128.9W Mon morning, 15.1N 130.0W Mon evening, 15.5N 130.2W Tue morning, 15.6N 129.5W Tue evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.7N 128.6W Wed morning, and 16.0N 127.5W Wed evening. Odalys will change little in intensity as it moves near 17.3N 125.4W late Thu. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail.