Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Apr 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0220 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09.5N75W to 03.5N82W to 04.5N95W. The ITCZ continues from 04.5N95W to 07.5N131W to beyond 07N140W. A second southern hemispheric ITCZ extends from 03.4S110W to beyond 01S120W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 08.5N between 79W and 91W, and near the ITCZ from 03N to 09N between 96W and 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weak high pressure offshore of central Baja California near 120W extends a ridge southeastward to offshore of SW Mexico. This pattern, combined with diurnal heating, is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the nearshore waters of the Baja Peninsula, with gentle to moderate winds farther offshore. Seas across the area waters are 4 to 5 ft in mixed SW and NW swell. Light to gentle NW to W winds prevail across the remaining waters of Mexico eastward to Puerto Angel, with moderate seas to 5 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle winds prevail across the Gulf of California. Strong N gap winds have begun to expand downwind of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, downwind to 15N. Seas there are 6 to 7 ft with these winds. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong northerly gap winds are expected across and downwind of the Tehuantepec region through early Sun morning, with seas building up to 9 ft during the early mornings. Afterwards, mainly moderate to fresh N winds are expected through Tue. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds and moderate seas are expected off Baja California through the middle of next week, as high pressure gradually strengthens across the region beginning Mon. Fresh to locally strong SW to W winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California tonight through Sun night ahead of a couple of weak frontal boundaries approaching Baja California Norte. Seas will build up to 5 or 6 ft with these winds. Elsewhere between Baja and Puerto Angel, winds will be moderate or weaker with moderate seas through the middle of next week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong E gap winds prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 88W this evening. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these winds. Moderate to locally fresh N winds and seas of 4 to 5 ft in SW swell prevail in the Gulf of Panama, and extend to just offshore of the Azuero Peninsula. Active convection offshore of Colombia this afternoon has diminish and it focused further inland. Meanwhile scattered moderate isolated strong convection extends from the waters of Costa Rica southwestward and well offshore, likely producing gusty winds and locally rough seas. Otherwise, light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell dominate the remainder of the offshore forecast waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds are expected mainly during the nighttime and early morning hours in the Papagayo area and downwind to beyond 90W through at least Tue. Winds up to 30 kt, and seas up to 9 ft are forecast this upcoming weekend. In the Gulf of Panama, moderate northerly winds, occasionally fresh, are expected throughout the forecast period, with stronger conditions most likely during this weekend. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Pulses of active convection will continue across the waters S of 09N through the weekend, and will propagate westward. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure well NW of the area extends a ridge southeastward into the area, and dominates the forecast area N of 15N and W of 110W, including the Revillagigedo Islands. A sharp upper level trough has moved into the area N of 20N today between 125W and 135W, and is inducing unstable conditions, with multilayer clouds and scattered showers from 19N to 28N between 114W and 123W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports moderate to locally fresh winds N of the ITCZ to about 16N between 100W and 130W, and south of 24N to the west of 130W. Moderate seas of 5 to 7 ft in mixed NW and S swell generally prevail across the area waters. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the northern forecast waters over the next several days with little change in winds and seas, before the high shifts southeast Mon through midweek to strengthen the pressure gradient modestly. Mainly moderate winds are expected in the trade wind zone through Mon. On Sun, another cold front will enter the N waters, and likely reach the northern Gulf California on Mon. Gentle to moderate N winds and moderate seas are forecast in the wake of the front.