Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri May 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia southwestward to the border between Panama and Colombia, to 06N80W to 08N86W and to 05N95W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 04N101W to 05N110W to 05N120W to 05N130W and to 04N139W. Numerous moderate convection is from 05N to 10N between 122W-130W, also within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 81W-85W, and between 95W-98W, and also within 60 nm south of the trough between 90W-95W and between 126W-131W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure gradient between broad ridging west of Baja California and relatively lower pressure in Baja California is generally allowing for mostly moderate northwest to north winds north of Punta Eugenia, and for moderate to fresh northwest to north winds south of Punta Eugenia as indicated in an overnight scatterometer data pass. Seas are in the range of 5 to 7 ft in northwest swell over the offshore waters of Baja California, except for slighter higher seas to 8 ft along 30N. A thermal trough extends from the northern Gulf of California south-southeastward across the Gulf of California. Its related gradient is allowing for gentle to moderate west to northwest winds over most of the Gulf, except for fresh southwest winds in the northern section. An overnight scatterometer satellite data pass depicted most of these winds. Seas over the Gulf are 3 to 4 ft, except for higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in long-period south to southwest swell at the entrance to the Gulf and 3 to 5 ft over the waters from 24N to 25N. Fresh to strong north winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region along with seas of 6 to 8 ft while light to gentle mostly west to northwest winds are elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in long-period south to southwest swell. Isolated showers are seen over the offshore waters of the states of Oaxaca and Guerrero. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly gap winds and rough seas will persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this morning. Moderate to fresh southwest to west gap winds in the northern Gulf of California are expected to pulse to strong at night this weekend. Moderate to fresh northwest winds over the offshore waters of Baja California will continue through Sun night, except increasing to fresh to strong speeds west of Baja California Norte along with very rough seas expected to peak to, or near 15 ft in large northwest swell tonight through Sun night due to a quick tightening of the pressure gradient related to a broad and strong area of high pressure northwest of the area that will be shifting eastward. This swell should propagate southward leading to moderate to rough seas west and southwest of Baja California Sur early next week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Latest satellite scatterometer data passes reveal moderate to fresh easterly gap winds and 6 to 8 ft seas extend offshore of southern Nicaragua and the Papagayo region to near 90W. Moderate north to northeast winds are present in the Gulf of Panama as seen in an overnight scatterometer satellite data pass. Light to gentle winds and seas of about 4 to 6 ft in long-period south to southwest swell are over the remainder of the Central American offshore waters. Gentle to moderate southerly winds are over the offshore waters west of Colombia and Ecuador, and to the waters in the vicinity of the Galapagos Islands. Good coverage of altimeter satellite data passes over these waters indicate seas of 4 to 6 ft in long-period southwest swell. For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse to strong with locally rough seas during night time hours offshore of the Papagayo region through early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through early next week. Moderate to fresh north to northeast winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama tonight. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are expected over some of the offshore waters of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica going into the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad ridging stretches southeastward from a strong 1035 mb high center located well northwest of the region to near 19N113W. This ridge controls the wind regime north of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressure related to the ITCZ and a couple of troughs: one analyzed from near 12N128W to 04N140W and the other one from near 12N111W to 06N120.5W supports mostly fresh trades north of 08N west of 134W, and from 09N to 28N between 125W and 134W as revealed in overnight scatterometer data passes. Seas over these waters are 6 to 8 ft per overnight altimeter satellite data passes and few Sofar Ocean Spotter buoys located north of 22N and west of about 123W. The scatterometer satellite data passes show gentle to moderate east to southeast winds south of the ITCZ, where seas are 5 to 7 ft in mixed southeast and southwest long-period swell. For the forecast, the strong 1035 mb high pressure center will slide eastward through the late Sat leading to a tightening of the pressure gradient over the far northeast part of the area. This will usher in fresh to strong northwest to north winds over this same of the area during the weekend. Resultant large north swell will build seas there to near 15 ft. The high is forecast to weaken some early next week allowing for the gradient to slacken just for the fresh to strong to diminish to mostly moderate to fresh speeds. The large north swell will begin to slowly subside from Mon and beyond, with seas west of Baja California dropping to below 12 ft.