Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat May 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0730 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 06.5N80W to 10N89W to 06.5N121W. The ITCZ continues from 06.5N122W to 05N134W to beyond 05.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05.5N to 08N E of 83.5W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 93.5W and 117W, and from 02N to 10N between 118W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent satellite scatterometer data showed moderate to fresh NW to N-NW winds off Baja California, east of 1025 mb high pressure centered near 33N131W. Recent satellite altimeter data showed 4-6 ft seas in NW swell, except to 7 ft just to the NW of Isla Guadalupe. Moderate northerly winds prevail from Baja Sur and Cabo San Lucas southward beyond the Revillagigedo Islands and Cabo Corrientes to 18N, where seas are also 4 to 6 ft. Gentle NW winds prevail across much of the Gulf of California, then become moderate northerly winds from the entrance to the Gulf to Cabo Corrientes, where seas are 3 to 5 ft. Gentle breezes and moderate seas in a mix of NW and SW swell are noted elsewhere to the east, becoming moderate SW winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Scattered moderate to strong thunderstorms prevail across the outer waters to the south of Tehuantepec, Oaxaca, and Guerrero. For the forecast, high pressure west of the area will support moderate to fresh NW winds and moderate to rough seas in NW swell off Baja California Norte into Sat evening, before the high pressure begins to weaken through midweek. The weakened pressure pattern will support gentle to moderate winds across the Baja waters through Wed. Large NW swell will continue tonight across the outer waters of Baja Norte and move into the waters just NW of Isla Guadalupe Sat evening through Sun evening. Looking ahead, strong gap winds and building seas are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue through Wed night as a cold front moves through southern Mexico. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent satellite scatterometer data indicated mostly light to gentle breezes across the offshore waters of Central America and southward to Ecuador, with fresh E to SE gap winds across the Papagayo region to south of the Gulf of Fonseca, and moderate northerly winds spilling across portions of the Gulf of Panama and to near 05.5N. Combined seas are mostly 4-6 ft except 6 to 8 ft in SW swell south of 02N. Scattered moderate convection continues across the Gulf of Panama and waters of SW Panama. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds will pulse at night to strong across the Papagayo region through early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected. Expect large SW swell reaching the southern waters of the Galapagos Islands tonight to persist through Sat before subsiding Sat night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Recent scatterometer satellite data indicated moderate to fresh NE trade winds from 05N to 23N west of 115W, to the south of a 1025 mb centered near 33N131W. Recent satellite altimeter data showed 6-9 ft seas in mixed swell across this area. Moderate or weaker breezes and 4-6 ft seas are north of 23N, with gentle breezes and 5-8 ft combined seas in SW swell south of the ITCZ. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are about the ITCZ W of 100W. For the forecast, the ridge will change little across the region through Sat evening, before weakening and drifting northward Sun through Tue. The associated weakened pressure gradient will support moderate trades, and fresh at times, north of the ITCZ to about 24N and west of 120W Sun through early next week, with seas of 7-8 ft across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere through the week. Rough seas are expected in building southerly swell S of the Equator tonight through early Sun.