Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Aug 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Central East Pacific (EP91): A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend or early next week before it interacts, or possibly merges with, the disturbance to its east. This system has a high chance for tropical cyclone formation through 48 hrs, and a high chance through 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details on these systems. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving over eastern portions of the Tropical Pacific basin with axis along 92W, N of 03N, moving westward at 15 to 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 15N between 86W and 100W. A broad area of low pressure is along a tropical wave with axis near 107W. This system is moving west-northwestward and could become a tropical depression over the weekend or early next week before it interacts, or possibly merges with, the disturbance to its west (Invest EP91). Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 17N between 100W and 116W. This system has a low chance for tropical cyclone formation through 48 hrs, and a medium chance through 7 days. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N84W to 10N110W to 07N140W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 04N to 13N between 113W and 128W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds with moderate seas. Light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail across the Gulf of California. High pressure over east-central Mexico, combined with a surface trough moving across the Bay of Campeche, supports fresh to strong N gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downwind to about 14N. Seas are up to 8 ft with these winds. Fresh E to SE are noted in the outer offshore waters of SW Mexico associated with the tropical wave near 107W. For the forecast, fresh northerly gap winds will continue to pulse to strong speeds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the overnight into the early morning hours through Sun night, with seas occasionally building to 8 ft. A ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California this weekend supporting mainly gentle to moderate winds. Southerly wind flow will return to the Gulf of California Sat night and become fresh to locally strong over the north and central parts of the Gulf on Sun. Winds and seas are expected to build across the outer offshore waters of southwestern Mexico into early next week in association with a developing area of low pressure moving west-northwestward and just outside of the offshore waters. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 89W, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. Moderate or weaker winds are found elsewhere, with moderate seas in S swell. For the forecast, high pressure will persist over the eastern Gulf of America and northwestern Caribbean into early next week, leading to fresh NE to E gap winds pulsing to strong speeds over the Papagayo region each evening and night. Moderate to fresh winds extending well downwind of Papagayo will impact the outer waters offshore of El Salvador and Guatemala through at least early next week. South of the monsoon trough, gentle to locally moderate winds will persist this weekend into early next week. Mainly moderate seas will prevail away from the Gulf of Papagayo the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section and the Tropical Waves section above for information on systems that have the potential for tropical cyclone formation. High pressure across the NE Pacific extends a ridge southeastward into the regional waters to offshore of Baja California. Fresh easterly winds and seas to 7 ft in the periphery of Tropical Storm Moke in the Central Pacific basin are impacting the waters between 13N to 25N and W of 130W. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh winds are found between 100W and 110W, from the outer border of the SW Mexican offshores to the monsoon with moderate to locally rough seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in mixed swell prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, regardless of tropical cyclone development, the features described above are forecast to bring increasing winds and seas roughly across the waters S of 20N between 100W and 120W this weekend. Little change is expected in the marine conditions elsewhere. Looking ahead, another area of low pressure is expected to develop well south of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula during the middle portion of next week. Some slow development is expected thereafter while the system moves generally west- northwestward. This system has a low chance for tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.