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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Aug 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Karina is centered near 17.3N 122.1W at 30/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are around 33 ft (10 m). Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center. Karina is moving toward the west- northwest. A slower westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Steady to rapid strengthening seems likely, and Karina is forecast to become a major hurricane in a day or so. Swells generated by Karina will affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Karina NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Lowell is just west of area centered near 13.3N 140.4W at 30/1500 UTC, moving west at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1000 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are currently around 13 ft (4 m). Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is within 180 nm W semicircle. Lowell is moving toward the west near 13 mph (20 km/h), and a general westward motion is expected during the next two to three days. Gradual strengthening is expected during the next few days, and Lowell could become a hurricane by Monday or Monday night. Please read the latest CPHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/HFOTCPCP4.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/HFOTCMCP4.shtml for more details. Well Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: An area of disturbed weather, associated with a tropical wave, is located well to the south of southwestern Mexico. This system is expected to continue to move west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of next week. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. Refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is along 88W north of 05N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 10N to 12N between 88W and 96W. The axis of a tropical wave is along 107W from 05N to 17N, moving quickly westward at around 20 kt. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 07N to 14N between 100W and 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N90W to 08N90W to 11N107W to 10N110W. In addition to the convection near Karina, Lowell and the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is evident N of 04N E of 81W to the coast of Colombia. Part of this convective activity is over the Gulf of Panama. Similar convection is also found from 02N to 10N W of 115W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Hurricane Karina, and an area of disturbed weather with the potential of tropical cyclone formation. While the main impacts of Karina remain west of the Mexican offshore waters, strong to near gale force winds and rough to very rough seas on the far northeast periphery of Karina are reaching the Revillagigedo Islands. Outer rainbands associated with the cyclone's circulation are also moving across the islands. Fresh to strong N gap winds continue to blow across Tehuantepec region and downwind to near 14N. Gentle to locally moderate southerly winds and slight seas dominate the Gulf of California except the northern part where fresh to locally strong winds and moderate seas are noted. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, Hurricane Karina Karina will move to 17.5N 123.5W this evening, 17.6N 125.1W Mon morning, 17.8N 126.9W Mon evening, 18.1N 128.7W Tue morning, 18.6N 130.3W Tue evening, and 19.1N 131.9W Wed morning. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to near 20.0N 135.1W early Thu. The fresh SE winds impacting the Revillagigedo Islands, particularly Clarion Island, on the far eastern periphery of Hurricane Karina, will diminish through late today as the storm moves farther west. Associated rough to very rough seas will gradually subside from east to west across the islands by tonight. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds and occasional rough seas will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this morning. Fresh to strong southerly winds are expected across the northern and central Gulf of California through tonight into Mon. Looking ahead, an area of disturbed weather, associated with a tropical wave, is located well to the south of southwestern Mexico. This system is expected to continue to move west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the early to middle part of next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly gap winds persist in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 10N90W, with 6 to 8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate winds and 4 to 6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo area through the weekend into early next week, then weakening slightly thereafter. Associated moderate to fresh winds will extend well downwind to the outer offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala. Southerly winds may freshen south of the monsoon trough this weekend into early next week. Winds will be moderate or weaker elsewhere with mainly moderate seas. Convection will remain active near the monsoon trough. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Hurricane Karina, Tropical Storm Lowell, currently located just west of the forecast area, and an area of disturbed weather located well offshore of Southwestern Mexico with the potential of tropical cyclone formation. A trough, associated with the remnant low of Post-Tropical cyclone Iselle, extends from 27N135W to 20N139W. Fresh to strong NE winds and seas of 7 to 9 ft are occurring near the northern end of the trough axis and mainly 25N to 28N W of 137W . Elsewhere, mainly moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the open waters both north and south of the monsoon trough away from the two tropical cyclones and the aforementioned trough. Rough seas generated by Karina cover the waters 10N to 23N between 113W and 127W. Seas are mainly moderate across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, Hurricane Karina Karina will move to 17.5N 123.5W this evening, 17.6N 125.1W Mon morning, 17.8N 126.9W Mon evening, 18.1N 128.7W Tue morning, 18.6N 130.3W Tue evening, and 19.1N 131.9W Wed morning. Karina will change little in intensity as it moves to near 20.0N 135.1W early Thu. Tropical Storm Lowell will be W of area near 13.3N 142.0W this afternoon. The associated winds and seas will also move W of area by tonight. Seas generated by Karina will continue to propagate across a large part of the forecast region early this week.