Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Apr 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from coastal Colombia at 08N78W to 04N81W to 07N92W to 04N115W. The ITCZ extends from 04N115W to beyond 07N140W. Southern hemispheric ITCZ extends from 04S106W to 02S137W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03S-05N between 86W-97W and from 04N-07N between 105W-140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge extends from 30N125W to 20N110W to 15N108W. Winds on the east side of the ridge are NW moderate to fresh over the Pacific waters NW of Cape Corrientes and over the S Gulf of California. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 5-6 ft in NW swell NW of Cape Corrientes, 4-5 ft in S swell SE of Cape Corrientes, 3-5 ft over the S Gulf of California, and 1-2 ft over the N Gulf of California. No significant deep convection is occurring over the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, quiescent conditions will prevail across the Mexican offshores tonight and tomorrow. Developing low pressure over the SW United States will induce fresh to strong SW winds over the N Gulf of California Thu night before diminishing on Fri. Elsewhere, large NW swell will impact the Pacific waters west of Baja California Norte Thu night through Fri night. Looking ahead, high pressure building over the Gulf of America should cause a Tehuanteper gap wind event Sun night into Mon night. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds across the forecast waters are moderate or weaker this evening with seas of 4-7 ft in S swell. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 03S-05N between 86W-97W and from 04N-07N between 105W-140W including the waters near the Galapagos. For the forecast, high pressure over the W Caribbean will help to produce fresh NE gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region tonight and tomorrow. Convection occurring near the Galapagos will continue through Fri night. Elsewhere, by Thu night through the weekend, quiescent conditions will prevail over the Central American and equatorial waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from a 1026 mb high near 34N136W to 30N125W to 20N110W to 15N108W. The weak pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the ITCZ is forcing only moderate to locally fresh NE trades over forecast waters. Seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell. No additional deep convection is occurring away from the surface trough/ITCZ. For the forecast, little change is expected in the winds during the next several days. Large NW swell will impact waters north of 27N and east of 125W Thu night through Fri night. Otherwise, little change in the seas are also expected through the weekend.