Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Jan 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Storm-force N winds are ongoing across the Tehunatepec region while gale-force winds extend downwind to near 12N. Fresh to strong NE to E winds extend beyond 100W. Peak seas area likely arond 22 ft. Gusty winds near hurricane-force may occur this morning. Large seas generated from this strong gap wind event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 12 ft or greater reaching as far south as 07N by Wed morning. Winds are forecast to diminish below storm-force later this morning, but strong gale-force winds of 40 to 45 kt will persist through the late afternoon hours. Gale conditions will then continue through Thu morning. Seas generated from this gap wind event will continue to propagate well away of the Tehuantepec region, and affect the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador with seas 12 ft or greater through Wed. Winds and seas will significantly diminish by Thu evening. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event is slated to begin across the Tehuantepec area by Fri night with winds reaching gale-force on Sat. Marine interests transiting across or in the Gulf of Tehuantepec should continue be aware of this very strong gap wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid this hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details on this event. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N77W to 09N85W to 06N90W. The ITCZ continues from 06N90W to 03N110W to 06N115W to beyond 07N140W. Convection is limited. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A storm-force gap wind event is ongoing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. See the Special Features section above for details on this event. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting light to gentle winds as indicated by the most recent scatterometer data. However, a tighter pressure gradient between a strong ridge over the Great Basin and a trough over western Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds with seas of 3 to 5 ft in the Gulf of California, highest near the entrance of the gulf. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas in NW swell dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore forecast waters. For the forecast, winds are forecast to diminish below storm- force in the Gulf of Tehuantepec later this morning, but strong gale-force winds of 40 to 45 kt will persist through the late afternoon hours. Gale conditions will then continue through Thu morning. Seas generated from this gap wind event will continue to propagate well away of the Tehuantepec region, affecting the waters from 04N to 15N between 92W and 108W by Wed morning. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds are ongoing across the Papagayo region and downwind to about 88W. Seas are 5 to 8 ft within these winds. Moderate to fresh N winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in the Gulf of Panama and downwind to about 06N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are noted, with slight to moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will continue across the Papagayo region through the weekend as high pressure builds N of area in the wake of a cold front moving across the NW Caribbean. These winds will reach near gale-force today and Wed, and resume again over the weekend, with seas building to around 11 ft tonight. Moderate to fresh N winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Panama through the weekend. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or weaker through Sat. Otherwise, seas generated by a very strong gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Guatemala and El Salvador today through Wed evening. The highest seas, in the 12 to 18 ft range in NW swell, are expected today. A second gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec over the upcoming weekend will also impact these waters with seas to around 14 ft. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the NW waters between 110W and 130W while a cold front is moving across the NW waters and extends from 30N133W to 24N140W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports an area of moderate to locally fresh trades N of the ITCZ to about 18N and W of 110W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within these winds per recent altimeter data. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are moderate in mixed NE wind wave and long period NW swell. For the forecast, the cold front will continue to weaken today and stall from 30N129W to 27N132W late this afternoon before dissipating late tonight. Afterward, high pressure will build in the wake of the front. Rough seas, in the wake of the front, will propagate across the forecast waters before subsiding over the weekend. New NW swell will enter the NW waters Thu night following another cold front forecast to reach enter the region Sat morning.