Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Sep 1 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2135 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Karina is centered near 18.2N 129.9W at 01/2100 UTC, moving west at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 949 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt. Peak seas are around 40 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 15N to 22N between 127W and 133W. Karina is a category 4 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Gradual weakening is expected during the next several days. Karina is moving toward the west near 9 kt and a westward to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 15.5N 109.5W at 01/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are around 18 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 08N to 20N between 101W and 117W. Marie is moving toward the northwest near 7 kt. A turn toward the west- northwest is expected on Wednesday and that motion should continue through Thursday. Additional strengthening is expected during the next 48 hours, and Marie is expected to become a hurricane on Wednesday. Swells generated by Marie will affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula for the next few days and will likely spread northward to southern California over the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 86W, extending across Central America to 04N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring north of 02N and between 80W and 90W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 13N104W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is present from 03N to 10N and east of 100W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information on Tropical Storm Marie centered SW of Mexico. Aside from the impacts of Tropical Storm Marie, a weak pressure gradient across the offshore waters of Baja California sustains moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. The gradient a bit tighter in the northern Gulf of California allowing for locally fresh southerly winds and slight seas. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Marie is near 15.5N 109.5W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Marie will move to 16.5N 110.5W Wed morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.5N 111.8W Wed afternoon, 18.4N 113.2W Thu morning, 19.2N 114.8W Thu afternoon, 19.8N 116.4W Fri morning, and 20.3N 117.9W Fri afternoon. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves to the 21.7N 120.3W Sat afternoon. Elsewhere, a tighter pressure gradient will result in fresh to locally strong southerly winds and moderate seas in the northern Gulf of California tonight into Fri night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the area supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas in the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending outward to 90W. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean will sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo through the workweek. Winds may pulse to strong speeds at night late this week into the upcoming weekend. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Hurricane Karina centered between Mexico and Hawaii, and Tropical Storm Marie located southwest of Mexico. Aside from the impacts of Hurricane Karina and Tropical Storm Marie, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas dominate the tropical eastern Pacific. A small area of cross equatorial swell is noted south of the equator producing seas to 8 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Karina is near 18.2N 129.9W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving west at 10 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 115 kt with gusts to 140 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 949 mb. Karina will move to 18.4N 131.4W Wed morning, 18.9N 133.3W Wed afternoon, 19.3N 135.2W Thu morning, 19.7N 137.1W Thu afternoon, 20.0N 138.9W Fri morning, and 20.3N 140.8W Fri afternoon. Karina will weaken to a tropical storm over 21.6N 143.9W Sat afternoon. Tropical Storm Marie is near 15.5N 109.5W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Marie will move to 16.5N 110.5W Wed morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.5N 111.8W Wed afternoon, 18.4N 113.2W Thu morning, 19.2N 114.8W Thu afternoon, 19.8N 116.4W Fri morning, and 20.3N 117.9W Fri afternoon. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves to the 21.7N 120.3W Sat afternoon. Elsewhere, the cross equatorial swell will remain south of 02N over the next few days, producing seas to 9 ft before subsiding late this week.