Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Apr 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N82W to 04N101W to 04N120W. The ITCZ extends from 04N120W to 05N132W to beyond 04N140W. Southern hemispheric ITCZ extends from 03S113W to beyond 03S120W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 85W and 101W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted S of 02N between 86W and 98W, and from 02N to 10N between 111W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure continues to gradually build south across Baja California waters, producing moderate to fresh mainly N winds along with moderate seas. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail to the south. Gap winds ending the the Tehuantepec region earlier this morning. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NW winds will diminish across the waters on both sides of the Baja California Peninsula this afternoon as high pressure to the north weakens. This high pressure will still dominate the waters through the week, maintaining gentle to moderate winds. NW swell will propagate into Baja waters late Thu and produce rough seas across the outer waters of Baja Norte through Fri night. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue across the Papagayo region, downwind to near 90W,k along with locally rough seas. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas to 6 ft prevail in the Gulf of Panama and extend beyond the Azuero Peninsula to near 04N. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in S-SW swell dominate the remainder of the offshore forecast waters. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection remains active just N and NE of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, broad high pressure will continue N of the region into tonight before gradually weakening through the end of the week. This will maintain fresh gap winds pulsing to strong across the Papagayo region to near 90W through tonight, then yield moderate winds pulsing to fresh each night into the weekend. In the Gulf of Panama, moderate northerly winds will pulse to fresh tonight, then will diminish slightly through the rest of the week. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Convection occurring N of the Galapagos tonight will gradually shift westward and out of the area through Fri night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1026 mb high pressure is centered N of the area near 34N133W and extends a ridge southward across the region W of 108W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh trade winds south of 16N between 100W and 110W, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds south of 25N and west of 110W. Seas are generally 5 to 7 ft in mixed swell across the area, except less than 5 ft across the far NW waters near the high pressure center. High pressure just N of the area will shift southeastward to near 33N into tonight, and strengthen the pressure gradient modestly across the local area tonight through Thu. Cross- equatorial swell will raise seas along the equator and E of 120W to 7 to 8 ft through this evening. Moderate to fresh winds are expected in the trade wind zone through Fri. The high pressure will weaken just N of the area on Sat to produce diminishing winds and seas through Sun, before a new cold front enters the NW waters late Sun.