Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Jul 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Genevieve is centered near 17.9N 116.1W at 28/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 950 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Peak seas are near 40 to 41 ft, or 12.5 m. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm of the center, except 120 nm in the SE quadrant. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is elsewhere within 240 nm in the SE semicircle and 120 nm in the NW semicircle. Genevieve is moving toward the west-northwest. A west- northwestward motion is expected during the next few days. Genevieve is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is forecast over the next several days. Swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula. These swells are likely to persist for a few more days, and could cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Genevieve NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 82W, from 05N northward into the Caribbean Sea, moving westward at around 5 kt. Any nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. A tropical wave is along 104W, from 04N to 15N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 09.5N between 95W and 106W. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is noted from 15N to 19N between 102W and 109W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N74W to 08N94W to 12N106W, then resumes from 11N121W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 09.5N between 83W and 88W, from 02N to 05N between 85W and 93W, and within 240 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 125W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Major Hurricane Genevieve. Please refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections above for information about additional convection in the region. Away from the impacts of Genevieve, moderate to locally fresh NW winds associated with high pressure building in from the northwest are impacting waters N and W of Guadalupe Island. Outflow from convection over Sonora is bringing fresh SE winds to the northern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail. Seas are slight in the Gulf of California and moderate in the remaining offshore waters. For the forecast, Hurricane Genevieve will move to 18.3N 117.2W this evening, 18.8N 118.9W Wed morning, 19.5N 120.7W Wed evening, 20.2N 122.9W Thu morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 20.9N 125.3W Thu evening, and 21.6N 127.7W Fri morning. Genevieve will change little in intensity as it moves to 23.1N 133.0W early Sat. Large seas associated with Genevieve will finally pull away from the offshore waters of Baja California Fri. Elsewhere, areas of fresh mainly westerly gap winds are likely through Wed night nearshore Baja California and also in the Gulf of California as high pressure builds southward to the west of the Baja California Peninsula. Fresh northerly winds may pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec at night into the early morning hours Thu night and Fri night. Looking ahead, fresh and rough northerly swell off California may push southward into the waters off Baja California Norte by the end of the upcoming weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections above for information about additional convection in the region. High pressure northeast of the area is forcing fresh easterly gap winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through the period. Pulsing moderate to locally fresh N winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama tonight and Wed night. Southerly winds may freshen offshore southern Colombia and from Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands Fri. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected across the remainder of the waters through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Genevieve. For waters not being impacted by Hurricane Genevieve, 1024 mb high pressure centered near 33N140W dominates. The pressure pattern between the high and Genevieve are supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trades from offshore southern California around the periphery of the ridge including from 20N to 30N and west of 120W, and from 09N to 20N and west of 130W. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are found south of 06N and west of 120W, and also south of the Equator and east of 120W. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere. Moderate seas dominate the waters away from Genevieve. For the forecast, Hurricane Genevieve will move to 18.3N 117.2W this evening, 18.8N 118.9W Wed morning, 19.5N 120.7W Wed evening, 20.2N 122.9W Thu morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 20.9N 125.3W Thu evening, and 21.6N 127.7W Fri morning. Genevieve will change little in intensity as it moves to 23.1N 133.0W early Sat.Away from Genevieve, little change in marine conditions is forecast across the remainder of the waters into next weekend. Looking ahead, fresh and rough northerly swell off California may push southward into the waters off Baja California Norte north of 27N and east of 130W by the end of the upcoming weekend.