Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jul 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Fausto is centered near 16.6N 119.9W at 21/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 987 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are near 28 ft. Numerous moderate scattered strong convection is occurring from 13.5N to 16.5N between 118W and 121W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 11N to 18N between 113W and 123W. Fausto is now moving toward the west-northwest. A general west-northwestward to westward motion is expected for the next several days. Little change in strength is expected today. After that, gradual strengthening is expected tonight through Thursday. Swells generated by Fausto are expected to reach the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula tonight, and persist for a couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Fausto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 90W N of 06N extending into Guatemala. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted near the southern end of the wave axis from 05N to 10N between 85W and 90W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1007 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia to 07N80W to 08N95W to 11N110W, where it breaks for Hurricane Fausto, then resumes near 12N126W to beyond 09N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 90W and 111W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Fausto, centered about 675 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California. Moderate to fresh winds and rough seas associated with the outer periphery of Hurricane Fausto are reaching the Clarion Island. A couple of altimeter passes indicate seas of 8 to 10 ft on either side of Socorro Island. Elsewhere, a very weak and narrow ridge extends across the offshore waters of Baja California supporting light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 7 ft N of Cabo San Lazaro, with higher seas in the 6 to 9 ft S of Cabo San Lazaro. Inside the Gulf of California, recent satellite altimeter data show light to gentle winds with the exception of gentle to moderate SE to S winds from 27N to 28.5N E of 112W to the coast of Sonora. Seas are estimated at 2 to 4 ft except to 5 ft across the entrance. Gentle to moderate NW winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, as Hurricane Fausto moves westward and away from the region, high pressure will begin to build across the Baja California offshore waters Wed and Thu to produce moderate to fresh NW winds with isolated areas of strong winds during the afternoon and evening hours. Swells generated by Fausto are expected to reach the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula tonight, and persist for a couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected. Fresh northerly winds are forecast in the Tehuantepec region during the overnight and early morning hours through the week, with locally rough seas. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the eastern Pacific. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The most recent satellite derived wind data indicate fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Papagayo region and downwind to about to 91W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4 to 5 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas will persist across the Papagayo region through Wed night, with moderate to fresh NE winds pulsing near the Gulf of Fonseca. Gentle to moderate N winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama with slight to moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected elsewhere, except in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and nearshore western Colombia where slight seas are forecast. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Fausto, centered about 675 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California. Hurricane Fausto and the remnants of Elida, currently located well N of the forecast area, dominate conditions over the High Seas forecast waters N of 10N and W of 110W. Seas in the 8 to 9 ft range, associated with the remnants of Elida, are still affecting the waters north of a line from 30N124W to 28N130W to 30N134W. Outside of the circulation of Fausto, moderate or weaker winds moderate to locally rough seas prevail. For the forecast, Hurricane Fausto will move to 17.0N 121.1W Wed morning, 17.4N 122.7W Wed afternoon, 17.7N 124.6W Thu morning, 17.9N 127.0W Thu afternoon, 18.3N 129.6W Fri morning, and 18.6N 132.3W Fri afternoon. Fausto will change little in intensity as it moves to near 19.4N 137.4W Sat afternoon. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form while it moves westward to west- northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the eastern Pacific. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. As is typical during EL Nino years, the eastern Pacific remains active, with one tropical system developing after another.