Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jun 17 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is entering the basin near 78W from just offshore western Colombia northward to eastern Panama and into the Caribbean Sea, moving westward around 20 kt. Any nearby convection is described with the monsoon trough below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 91.5W extending from 02N northward near the Galapagos Islands to across portions of Guatemala, moving westward at around 20 kt. Any nearby convection is described with the monsoon trough below. The axis of a tropical wave is analyzed near 111W extending from 03N to 16N. Any nearby convection is described with the monsoon trough below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the SW Caribbean Sea to across the border of Costa Rica and Panama to the Pacific near 08.8N84W to 14.5N93.5W near the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The ITCZ extends from 14N101W to 13N109W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 12N111W to 08N127W to 09N139W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 01N to 09N between 77W and 88W, and from 01N to 06.5N between 136W and 140W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 13N between 89W and 98W, from 11N to 15N between 102W and 109W, from 04N to 07N between 106W and 111W, and within 180 nm either side of the ITCZ between 112W and 124W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the northern Gulf of California into Baja California Sur to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the trough and surface ridging to the west is supporting mainly moderate NW-N winds offshore Baja California to the north of Cabo San Lazaro, and moderate to fresh SE-S winds in the Gulf of California, locally strong N of 29N. A weak pressure gradient across the remainder discussion waters is supporting light to gentle winds. Moderate seas dominate the offshore waters with heights of 5-7 ft in S-SW Swell. In the Gulf of California, seas are mainly 2-4 ft. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the waters of Baja California, pulsing to locally fresh speeds at night. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds are expected inside the Gulf of California and near the tip of Baja California Sur, reaching to locally fresh to strong speeds tonight into early Thu. Light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Tehunatepec. Moderate seas in mainly southerly swell will prevail through the next several days, slight in the Gulf of California. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly light to gentle winds under a weak pressure gradient prevail across the offshore waters along with moderate seas in S-SW swell. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers and tstms are across the offshore waters of Colombia and Panama ahead of a tropical wave currently analyzed in the Caribbean Sea. Winds and seas may be higher in and near these areas of deep convection. Some scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are also occurring offshore El Salvador and Guatemala near another tropical wave. For the forecast, gentle to occasionally moderate S to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail across the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through at least Sun night. Moderate winds will pulse to fresh in diurnal offshore flow in the immediate Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in SW swell are forecast elsewhere through at least the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough, remnant of Invest EP93, is near 140W. The most concentrated associated convection has pushed W of 140W while moderate to fresh winds linger from 11N to 18N between 136W and 140W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail, with a frontal trough along 28N/29W which is helping to weaken the pressure gradient with ridging along 24N/25N. Sporadic convection, some associated with passing tropical waves, is near the monsoon trough and ITCZ as described above. For the forecast, the remnants of former Invest EP93, will move farther west of 140W later tonight. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds, and moderate seas will prevail, except seas building to rough south of and near the Equator and east of 120W in new southerly swells through the end of the week. Winds may pulse to fresh in the west-central waters at times. Looking ahead, yet another set of southerly swell may build seas to rough over the same area during the upcoming weekend, then decaying early next week.