Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jul 1 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... At 200 AM PDT or 01/0900Z, newly formed Tropical Depression (TD) Four-E was centered at 14.5N 126.9W, about 675 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California. TD Four-E is moving NNW at 6 kt with an estimated central pressure of 1005 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Seas at 8 to 11 ft exist near and up to 260 nm in a NW semicircle from the center. Scattered to numerous heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring south and east of the center, from 09N to 15N between 124W and 131W. TD Four-E is expected to continue moving NNW with little in speed through Friday. Some strengthening is forecast and Four-E will become a tropical storm later today or tonight. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. For the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory on TD Four-E, visit website: https://www.hurricane.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 115W from 18N southward, and moving westward around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 08N to 16N between 110W and 121W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends westward from southeastern Panama to 10N85W to 05N102W to Tropical Depression Four-E mentioned above, then turns southwestward to 07N140W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is near the monsoon trough from 01N to 09N east of 90W, and from 09N to 16N between 123W and 132W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 15N between 90W and 121W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific, southeastward through 30N136W to near the Revillagigedo Islands. This pressure pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in NW swell across the Baja California waters, with 7 to 8 ft seas across the far outer waters of Baja Norte. Inside the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh SW to W gap winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft are present in the northern Gulf, while gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft generally prevail across the rest of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds dominate the remaining waters from the Revillagigedo Islands to near Salina Cruz, with seas of 4 to 6 ft in primarily cross- equatorial S swell. A narrow channel of fresh N gap winds continues across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending offshore to near 14N. Seas are 5 to 7 ft across this area. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the far offshore waters S of 12N, offshore of the coasts of eastern Guerrero to Chiapas. For the forecast, the broad surface ridge extending southeastward across the eastern Pacific to near the Revillagigedo Islands will begin to drift southwestward and weaken slightly today through the remainder of the week. This pattern will produce gentle to moderate winds across the Baja waters through Sat, with locally fresh winds possibly each late afternoon and evening. Moderate NW swell moving across these waters will maintain moderate seas through Thu, except rough seas across the far western offshore waters of Baja Norte. A narrow channel of fresh N to NE gap winds will continue to pulse to strong, and sustain moderate to rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region from the nighttime to late morning hours each night and morning through Sat morning. Moderate to fresh W to SW gap winds are also expected in the northern Gulf of California until late this morning. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds continue to dominate the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 92W and northward across southwestern Nicaragua. Seas are 5 to 8 ft across this area. Moderate N to NE winds continue across the Gulf of Panama and extend southward to near 04.5N, where seas are 4 to 5 ft. Gentle winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in S to SW swell prevail across the remainder central America and Colombia offshore waters N of 02N. Gentle to moderate S winds and 6 to 8 ft seas in cross-equatorial S swell dominate waters S of 02N between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Refer to the INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH section for more detail on convection in the region, primarily extending from Colombia westward to 88W. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong gap winds and moderate to rough seas will continue across the Papagayo region through Fri, and then begin to weaken slightly this weekend. NE to E swell generated by these winds is expected to maintain moderate to locally rough seas well downstream to beyond 90W. Farther south, cross-equatorial southerly swell will keep moderate to locally rough seas near the Galapagos Islands and off Ecuador through Thu morning. Periods of heavy showers and strong thunderstorms persisting near the Colombia coast, and across the southern offshore waters of Costa Rica and Panama will continue to expand northward into the northern offshore waters today. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section on newly form Tropical Depression Four-E. A broad surface ridge extends from the northeast Pacific southeastward through 30N130W to just N of the Revillagigedo Islands, and is supporting moderate to fresh N to NE winds, and 6 to 8 ft seas in N to NE swell, north of the monsoon trough and west of 120W, outside the vicinity of Tropical Depression (TD) Four-E. Winds and seas are higher to the N and NW of TD Four-E as described above. East of 120W and north of the ITCZ, gentle to moderate NE to E winds and 6 to 7 ft seas in mixed moderate swell prevail. Light to gentle winds and seas at 6 to 8 ft in mixed moderate swell are noted near and south of the monsoon trough to near 04N. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds with 6 to 8 ft seas in cross-equatorial S and SE swell prevail elsewhere south of 04N. For the forecast, as TD Four-E gradually tracks NNW over the next few days, a large swath of fresh to strong winds and rough seas farther NW and N of Four-E will move ahead of the system. Outside of this system, little changes are anticipated north of the ITCZ for the next several days. South of the ITCZ, a gradual decrease in both winds and seas will occur by Wed.