Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jul 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Five-E: The tropical wave south of the coast of southwestern Mexico that has been producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms, with strong and gusty winds, has continued to shows improved organization this afternoon, and is now being classified as Tropical Depression Five-E. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with peak seas to 14 to 15 ft, or 4.5 m. Numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from 11N to 18N between 104W and 113W. Five-E is moving westward at 16 kt this afternoon, and is still attempting to better organize its inner core. Five-E is expected to become a tropical storm tonight, and then intensify steadily through 72 hours as it moves through a very favorable environment, reaching hurricane strength Thu night. The depression is forecast to slow down a bit in a day or two, followed by a turn toward the northwest around Thursday night. Expect strong winds and rough seas near the Revillagigedo Islands beginning this evening through Wed morning, as the depression makes its closest point of approach to the south of the islands. Please read the latest advisories issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 91W, north of 03N to the Yucatan Peninsula, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Convection is described in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section. The tropical wave that was along 108W is no longer analyzed due to T.D. 5-E. A tropical wave is along 135W from 04N to 20N, moving slowly westward at around 5 kt. Associated convection is described ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N75W to 08N88W, then resumes from 14.5N136W to beyond 11.5N140W. Segments of the ITCZ are from 07.5N90W to 10N105W, then from 09N110W to 10N131W, then from 13.5N136W to 10.5N140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong winds extend across portions of the waters south of 20N and west 105W to the north and east of T.D. Five-E this afternoon, and impacting the offshore waters of Colima and Jalisco, and approaching Socorro Island. Seas across this area are 6 to 13 ft. Elsewhere to the east, fresh to strong gap winds are across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. A broad ridge prevails elsewhere offshore of Baja Baja California and to the NW of T.D. Five-E. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds and 4 to 5 ft seas across the Baja waters, and light breezes with 1 to 3 ft seas inside the Gulf of California. For the forecast, T.D. Five-E is expected move westerly tonight through Wed morning and pass just south of the Revillagigedo Islands, bringing fresh to strong easterly winds, rough seas and periods of active weather. Otherwise, a broad ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through Thu, allowing for gentle to moderate NW to N winds to continue along with moderate seas in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle winds will prevail through tonight, increasing to moderate to locally fresh in the central and northern portions midweek. Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the week and into the upcoming weekend, strongest during the late night and early morning hours, with locally rough seas at times. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form later this week several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward well offshore of Mexico. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds continue across the Papagayo region to near 90W, with moderate to fresh easterly winds elsewhere north of 10N to offshore northern Nicaragua. Seas are 5 to 8 ft downstream of Papagayo. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters, locally fresh near the Azuero Peninsula. Moderate seas dominate the waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail across the Papagayo region, peaking at night through at least Sun night, producing moderate to locally rough seas. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected across the Gulf of Panama tonight and again Wed night. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands where slight seas are expected. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are near a tropical wave along 137W, from 06N to 26N between 130W and 140W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in this area. Similar winds are found from roughly 15N to 22N between 114W and 130W, as well as south of 09N between 108W and 122W. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in mainly southerly swell south of 09N between 102W and 120W, and 4 to 7 ft in mixed swell across the reminder of the waters. For the forecast, winds and seas associated with the tropical wave near 137W will persist through Wed night as the wave shifts west of 140W by Thu. NE winds will freshen with seas 5 to 7 ft thereafter north of 15N and west of 125W between broad low pressure along the monsoon trough riding farther north. Elsewhere, T.D. Five-E is expected to reach near 14.9N 111.4W as a tropical storm tonight, move to near 15.1N 116.2W Wed night, reach near 16.2N 119.5W Thu night as a hurricane, and move to near 19.7N 124.1W Fri night. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form later this week several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward well offshore of Mexico.