Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Feb 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The tight pressure gradient between a ridge that extends from the western Gulf of America southward to southeastern Mexico and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ will continue to support gale-force northerly winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight into early Mon. Winds will quickly diminish through the day. Peak seas with these winds may reach to near 11 ft before subsiding to 8 ft in west to northwest swell by Tue afternoon. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Gale-force winds prevail across the Papagayo region due to the pressure gradient between high pressure centered over the western Gulf of America and relatively lower pressure associated with the ITCZ. Rough seas accompany these winds. These conditions will diminish this afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 09N84W to 02N114W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N140W. Another surface trough is analyzed from 16N114W to 03N115W. Scattered moderate convection is with the second trough mainly between 108W-118W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the Special Features section above for details. Aside from the Gale Warning area, gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are west of Baja California as well as to the southwest of the peninsula, while light and variable winds are prevail elsewhere. Gentle to moderate northwest winds are in the Gulf of California. Slight to moderate seas prevail across the Gulf. Moderate seas are over the Mexican waters. For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale event, the long-period northwest swell north of 17N and west of 107W will decay today. A cold front is expected to move across the waters west of Baja California Norte from late Tue into Wed while weakening. Fresh to strong southeast winds are expected to develop in the far northern Gulf of California on Tue ahead of the cold front. Meanwhile, a set of northwest swell in the wake of the front may move through the outermost offshore waters of Baja California Norte Tue night and Wed before decaying Wed night. Fresh to strong southeast are expected to develop in the far northern Gulf of California on Tuesday. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Papagayo. Please see the Special Features section above for details. Aside from the Gulf of Papagayo conditions, fresh to strong NE winds have developed in the Gulf of Panama. Moderate to fresh northeast winds and rough seas are over the eastern part of the offshore waters of Guatemala associated with the ongoing Gulf of Papagayo gap wind event. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Papagayo, the strong winds in the Gulf of Panama will diminish to moderate to fresh speeds late Mon night and continue with little change through the forecast period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge axis prevails across the basin. Latest scatterometer satellite data passes reveal light to gentle anticyclone winds north of 25N and west of 125W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure to the south associated with the ITCZ is producing fresh to strong trades from 06N to 15N west of 120W. Seas over these waters are 8 to 10 ft in long-period northwest swell mixed with wind generated waves, except mixed with northeast to east swell west of about 128W. Fresh east winds generated from the recent Gulf of Tehuantepec gap-wind gale event have spread westward to near 105W. For the forecast, the seas to 10 ft in the long-period northwest swell will slowly subside to around 8 ft through Tue. The trades over the western half of the area are forecast to diminish some late on Mon and into Tue as a cold front moves into the NW part of the area, and the high pressure that is in place shifts eastward and weakens. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected behind this front along with seas building to 8 to 11 ft in northwest swell. Seas 12 ft and greater are expected along and just north of 30N and between 128W and 131W at that time.