Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jun 27 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1515 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The southern portion of a Caribbean tropical wave is along 87W reaching southward to near 05N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are near the southern portion of the wave and where the wave crosses the monsoon trough. A tropical wave has its axis along 96W north of 08N to inland southeastern Mexico. It is moving westward around 10 kt. Numerous to isolated strong convection is west of the wave to near 107W from 10N to 14N. A tropical wave has its axis along 114W from 08N to 19N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. A mid-level cyclonic circulation is east of the wave axis near 11N112W. Anticyclonic flow aloft of the cirrus clouds is noted in water vapor imagery from 09N to 14N between 108W and 113W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 10N to 15N between 110W and 115W. A tropical wave is analyzed from 21.5N130W to 17N133W and to 11N135W. A weak 1011 mb low is along the axis near 20N as noted in satellite imagery. These features are moving westward at about 10 to 15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pressure of 1009 mb in northwest Colombia to across central Panama and southern Costa Rica, to 09N84W to 07N95W to 08N104W to 10N110W and to 08N115W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 05N125W to 06.5N132W and to beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is from 02N to 06N west of 136W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 05N to 10N between 105W-112W, and within 60 nm south of the ITCZ between 116W-123W. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm north of the trough between 98W-106W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure difference between high pressure ridging over the Gulf of America and lower pressure from southeastern Mexico southward to the monsoon trough over the eastern Pacific is supporting fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas to 8 ft are with these winds. In the Gulf of California, moderate to fresh south to southwest winds are over the northern portion due to a tighter gradient present there between the thermal trough and relatively higher pressure in western Mexico. Seas are 2 to 4 ft over the Gulf, except for 3 to 5 ft in the southern portion. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters along with seas of 5 to 7 ft in long-period south to southwest swell. For the forecast, the fresh to strong north to northeast gap winds will continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through Sun morning. Elsewhere, winds and seas across the Mexican offshore waters should be calm through early next week. Large northwest swell is expected to move into the far northern waters off Baja California Norte beginning Sun night and perhaps linger into Tue night. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast gap winds are across the Gulf of Papagayo and off the southern coast of Nicaragua. Overnight altimeter satellite data indicates seas of 6 to 9 ft downstream of these winds from 09N to 11N between 87W and 91W. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere. Seas are 7 to 9 ft in long-period southerly swell over the equatorial waters and 5 to 6 ft in SW swell over the remainder of the offshore waters. For the forecast, the pressure difference between high pressure north of the area and lower pressures in the tropics will support fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Papagayo through early Tue. These conditions may possibly reach as far west as 103W through Sun night before diminishing. Farther south, large southerly swell moving into the equatorial waters will continue through early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weak 1011 mb low is centered near 20N131W as mentioned above under the Tropical Waves section. Fresh to strong northeast winds prevail north of the low to 22N and between 130W and 140W. Seas with these winds are 8 to 9 ft. Elsewhere, broad ridging dominates the remainder of the area north of 20N. The moderate pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the monsoon trough/ITCZ is resulting in moderate to fresh trade winds from 10N to 28N west of 127W, and from 12N to 17N between 113W and 120W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft over these areas, except for higher seas 6 to 8 ft from 14N to 20N west of 131W due to long-period north to northeast swell. Elsewhere, winds across the open Pacific are moderate or weaker. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in mixed north and southwest swell. For the forecast, the tropical wave near 114W is forecast to undergo possible gradual development during the next several days as it moves generally west-northwestward, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while the wave moves generally westward to west-northwestward. Environmental conditions are forecast to become less conducive for development by the second half of next week as the system moves over the western portion of the eastern North Pacific. Outside of this system, little change in winds are expected for the next several days. Large southerly swell moving through far south-central waters is expected to begin to decay during the early part of the upcoming week.