Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jul 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 85W north of 06N, moving westward around 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted with this tropical wave. A tropical wave is analyzed along 125W from 02N to 16N, moving quickly westward at around 20-25 kt. Any nearby convection is described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N78W to 09N95W to 05N90W. The ITCZ extends from 05N90W to 07N120W to 05N125W, and from 06N130W to 08N135W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 03N to 13N between 105W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends from 1025 mb high pressure near 35N140W southeastward to off the coast of Baja California then to just west of the Revillagigedo Islands. Scattered showers and thunderstorms have been active over the past several hours over southern Sonora and northern Sinaloa have resulted in fresh to strong winds over the southern and central Gulf of California along the eastern shore. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 5-7 ft seas are occurring off Baja California Norte between the ridge and lower pressure over northwest Mexico. Moderate E winds and 6-7 ft seas are noted off western Oaxaca beyond 90 nm offshore, and north of lowering pressure over the deep tropics. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4-6 ft are noted elsewhere, except 1-3 ft seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the ridging will persist off Baja California through mid week, with lower pressure inland over northwest Mexico. This pattern will support fresh to occasionally strong NW winds off Baja California Norte through Wed night, with rough seas in NW swell near Guadalupe Island. These winds will diminish Thu, as low pressure moves off the Pacific into the lower Colorado River Valley. This will result in fresh to strong S winds and rough seas late Thu into Fri over the northern Gulf of California. Looking ahead, lowering pressure across the tropical eastern Pacific will induce moderate to fresh N gap winds and occasionally rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec later in the week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent scatterometer satellite pass from 05 UTC confirmed a plume of fresh to strong NE to E gap winds persist across the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 90W, where seas are 5-7 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds are elsewhere to the N of 09N. Moderate SE winds are offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, where seas are 6-9 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle winds are across the remainder of the waters, along with 4-7 ft mainly in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE-E gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo region into early Thu, then moderate to fresh thereafter. Cross equatorial SW swell will move through the waters off Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through early Wed, with seas peaking around 9 ft. The combination of the southerly swell with shorter period seas associated with gap winds will allow combined seas to build to a peak of about 8 ft offshore of northern Central America through Wed. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A trough, the remnant of Douglas, is along 133W/134W from 21N to 28N. A recent scatterometer satellite pass from 0630 UTC indicated fresh NE winds within 60 nm northwest of this trough. Elsewhere, a broad ridge dominates the waters north of 15N, supporting moderate NE winds and 5-7 ft seas in a mix of N and SW swell. Fresh NE winds and seas to 9 ft are also noted farther south ahead of the tropical wave near 125W, specifically from 10N to 15N between 125W and 135W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing near a surface trough along 137W from 03N to 10N. Recent scatterometer satellite data indicate fresh to strong winds are within 90 nm of the trough, and rough seas are likely accompanying the strong winds. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere. Long period SW swell to 8 ft is reaching 08N between 90W and 130W. Combined seas are 5-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas will follow the trough near 137W as it moves west of 140W tonight. Strong winds and rough seas will also accompany the tropical wave near 125W at it moves westward at 20 to 25 kt through 135W by Wed night and past 140W by late Fri. Farther north, swell of 8-9 ft will persist north of 25N east of 125W through Fri. Farther south, large swell to 7-8 ft will persist south of 01N between 95W and 120W through Fri.