Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Apr 17 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from coastal Costa Rica near 09N83W to 05N102W. The ITCZ begins at 05N102W to a 1008 mb low near 04N110W, then beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is occurring from 03N-07N between 103W-123W. Isolated moderate convection is also occurring from 00N-05N between 90W-103W and from 03N-10N between 127W-135W. A Southern Hemisphere ITCZ extends from 03S93W to 03S140W. Isolated moderate convection is observed from 03S-07S between 86W-89W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface ridge extends from 30N127W to 20N117W to 15N110W. NW winds west of the Baja California peninsula are moderate to fresh. Elsewhere over the Pacific and the Gulf of California, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 5-6 ft in NW swell over the Pacific NW of Cabo Corrientes, 5-6 ft in S swell over the Pacific SE of Cabo Corrientes, and 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California. No deep convection is occurring over the Mexican offshore waters. For the forecast, developing low pressure over the SW United States will bring fresh SW winds to the N Gulf of California tonight before diminishing tomorrow. Fresh NW winds will also occur near Cabo San Lucas through tomorrow night. Additionally, large NW swell will impact the Pacific waters west of Baja California Norte tonight through Sat. Elsewhere, rather quiet conditions will remain over the Mexican offshores through the weekend. Looking ahead, high pressure building over the Gulf of America is expected to induce a strong to near gale Tehuantepec gap wind event Sun night into Mon night. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds across the Central American and equatorial waters are moderate or weaker with seas 5-6 ft in S swell. Isolated moderate convection is occurring from 00N-05N between 90W-103W near the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, fresh E winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region will diminish by Fri night. Showers and thunderstorms occurring near the Galapagos Islands should last into Fri night. Elsewhere, expect rather tranquil conditions to remain over the Central American and the equatorial waters through early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge extends from 30N127W to 20N117W to 15N110W. The weak pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the ITCZ is forcing only moderate to locally fresh NE trades over forecast waters. Seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell. No additional deep convection is occurring away from the surface trough/ITCZ. For the forecast, little change is expected in the winds during the next few days. Large NW swell will impact waters north of 28N and east of 125W tonight through Fri night. Otherwise, little change in the seas are also expected through the weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front will reach our NW corner at 30N140W on Sun. The frontal boundary should move eastward while gradually weakening, accompanied by large N to NW swell. The large N to NW swell should reach to 20N west of 130W by Tuesday.