Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Jul 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized thunderstorms and gusty winds a couple of hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico as described with the monsoon trough below. Currently, winds are 20 to 25 kt with this system, along with seas of to 8 ft. Environmental conditions appear favorable for continued gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next 2 or 3 days while the system moves generally west- northwestward, well off the coast of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 79W/80W, north of 03N, moving westward at around 15 to 20 kt. Any nearby convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section. The axis of a tropical wave is near 101W, from 04N northward, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Any nearby convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section, with additional details also in the Special Features section regarding the potential for tropical cyclone formation. The axis of a tropical wave is along 133W from 04N to 19N, moving westward at around 10 kt. A 1007 mb low pressure is analyzed along the wave axis near 14N132W. Any nearby convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N90W. Segments of the ITCZ continues from 09N90W to 09N98W, and from 10N105W to 05N120W to 11N130W. The monsoon trough resumes from 13N135W to beyond 09N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 13N to 18N between 95W and 105W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 05N to 10N between 105W and 110W, and from 10N to 15N between 125W and 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... An overnight scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong NE to E winds off the coast of southwest Mexico from off western Oaxaca to eastern Guerrero, on the northern end of the tropical wave moving through that area. Rough seas accompany these winds. Broad ridging is evident elsewhere off Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas elsewhere, except light breezes and 1-3 ft seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through early Thu, allowing for gentle to moderate NW to N winds to continue along with moderate seas in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle winds will prevail through Tue night, increasing to moderate to locally fresh in the central and northern portions midweek. Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the week, strongest during the late night and early morning hours, with locally rough seas at times. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong E winds persist across the Gulf of Papagayo, with moderate to fresh easterly winds elsewhere from 10N to 12N. Winds are light to gentle across the remainder of the waters per overnight scatterometer passes. Moderate seas dominate the waters. Areas of convection associated with the monsoon trough are described above with locally higher winds and seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region mainly at night through at least Fri night along with moderate to locally rough seas. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas are forecast to impact the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala today due to the departing presence of a tropical wave several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands where slight seas are expected. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... An overnight scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh E to SE winds on the northern end of the tropical wave along 133W. Concurrent altimeter satellite data indicated seas to 8 ft in this area, near 15N130W. Gentle to moderate winds 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere, except for fresh SE winds and 5-7 ft seas south of 07N between 95W and 105W. For the forecast, the National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring several areas with the potential for tropical cyclone development across the eastern and central Pacific. Three of those disturbances are located in the eastern Pacific region. One is a tropical wave a couple of hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. The second area is an area of low pressure located well west-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula, which continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms, primarily east of its center. This system is expected to move west-northwestward into less favorable environmental conditions during the next couple of days, and its development chances appear to be decreasing with a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and also through 7 days. Finally, an area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of the week several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week or next weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward well offshore of Mexico. This system has a low chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours and a medium chance through 7 days. Otherwise, expect little change except for freshening winds in the northwestern open waters by the end of the week as the pressure gradient tightens, resulting in building seas to rough.