Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jul 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0748 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 110W, south of 17N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08.5N79W to 07N96W. The ITCZ extends from 07N96W to 08.5N109W, then resumes from 08N113W to 06N130W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from N of 03N and E of 95W, from 05N to 08.5N between 88W and 98W, from 08N to 17N between 95W and 120W, and from 01N to 11N between 120W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge extends from the NE Pacific across the Baja California waters to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure over Mexico is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds offshore Baja California and seas 4 to 6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds are also present over the Gulf of Tehuantepec along with seas 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail, with 5-7 ft seas in merging NW and SW swell, except for light winds and seas 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the ridge extending into the Baja California waters will continue to strengthens across the area today through Tue night, leading to moderate to fresh winds across the Baja California waters. Moderate to fresh gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through this morning, then diminish through the day. Winds will pulse to fresh speeds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec each night through Thu. Cross- equatorial SW swell will reach the waters off southern Mexico on Mon, building seas to around 7 ft. Expect fresh southerly winds across the northern Gulf of California Tue and Wed becoming strong on Thu. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered moderate convection is depicted across the waters N of 06N, across Panama, and Costa Rica. Fresh to strong NE gap winds continuing across the Papagayo region and extends offshore to 91W, where seas are 4-8 ft. Mostly gentle to moderate SE to S winds are noted elsewhere S of 10N, along with seas seas of 4-6 ft in cross-equatorial SW swell. For the forecast, fresh NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region will continue to pulse to strong each night through Thu leading to rough seas. Large cross-equatorial southerly swell will move into the waters off Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands late Sun through Tue, building seas to 8 to 9 ft, and 6 to 7 ft across much of the remaining waters farther N. The combination of the southerly swell with shorter period seas associated with gap winds will allow combined seas to build to 8 ft offshore of northern Central America Tue through Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge continues across the NE Pacific and north of the area, extending southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the remnant low of Douglas, now a 1012 mb low near 23N130W, is producing fresh to strong winds around the low, from 24N to 28N between 127W and 133W. Peak seas are still to 10 ft across the NW quadrant of this low. The ridge draping over this low pressure area continues to support mostly gentle to moderate NE to E winds elsewhere north of 20N and west of 120W, with 5-8 ft seas in a mix of swell. East of 120W, a long plume of fresh E winds and 6-8 ft seas emerging from the Papagayo gap area is reaching as far west as 100W, from 08N to 11N. Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere east of 120W. Wave heights are 6-8 ft there in SW swell. Information for convection across the area can be found in the TROPICAL WAVES and INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH sections above. For the forecast, winds and seas near the remnants of Douglas will gradually diminish through tonight as the remnant low moves NW, weakens and opens into a trough. The ridge will drift southwestward and generally persist across the region through early next week, supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds farther south into the tropics. A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized shower activity. Development of this system is no longer anticipated as it moves westward across the central and western portions of the East Pacific basin during the next several days.