Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri May 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N75.5W 08N83W to 05.5N89W to 08.5N98W to 06N113W. The ITCZ continues from 06N113W to 07N138W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11.5N between 78W and 91W, and from 00N to 10N between 86W and 101W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 05.5N to 11.5N between 102W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh northwesterly winds prevail west of the Baja California peninsula this evening, where seas are 4 to 6 ft in W-NW swell. Light to gentle winds prevail across north and central portions of the Gulf of California, while gentle to moderate northwesterly winds are occurring from southern portions of the Gulf to Las Tres Marias. Seas are 1 to 2 ft north and central portions and 3-4 ft elsewhere. Light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft prevail elsewhere between Cabo Corrientes and Tehuantepec. For the forecast, 1028 mb high pressure remains NW of the area tonight, and will drift NE and weaken slightly through early next week. This pattern will produce gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas over much of the forecast waters through the remainder of the week and into early next week. Large NW swell will approach Guadalupe Island off Baja California Norte briefly Sat night and Sun. Looking ahead, gap winds may strengthen along with building seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon night through Tue night as a cold front moves through southern Mexico. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh E to SE gap winds extend offshore of the Papagayo region to near 87W this evening, while light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Moderate NW to N winds have begun to spill into western portions of the Gulf of Panama. Seas are moderate in S-SW swell across the area waters, except slight across the coastal waters of Colombia. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection remains from offshore of Nicaragua near 90W to coastal Colombia. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds will pulse at night to strong across the Papagayo region through early next week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected. Expect large SW swell near the Galapagos Islands Fri and Sat. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge dominates the forecast waters north of the ITCZ, centered on a 1028 mb high near 31N133W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 115W, and N to NE winds between 110W and 115W. Seas are 6-9 ft in W-NW swell across these waters S of 20N, highest west of 125W, and 4 to 6 ft N of 20N. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in S-SW swell prevails. For the forecast, the ridge will change little across the region through early next week. The associated pressure gradient will support fresh trades, strong at times, north of the ITCZ to about 20N and west of 120W through the remainder of the week and the weekend, with seas of 7-8 ft across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere through the week. Rough seas are expected in building southerly swell S of the Equator from Thu through Sat night.