Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Nov 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0305 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Deep-layer troughing over the northwestern Caribbean extends southwestward across northern portions of Central America and into the tropical eastern Pacific. This feature will interact with enhanced low- level moisture and onshore flow south of the monsoon trough over the next several days. This will favor heavy precipitation developing across Central America starting today and lasting through at least Friday. The heaviest precipitation is expected across Nicaragua and Costa Rica, with the bulk of precipitation occurring through Thursday. Heavy rainfall may lead to life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your local weather agency and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more details. Low pressure offshore Nicaragua: A broad area of low pressure offshore of Central America is producing a large area of showers and thunderstorms that remain disorganized. Gradual development of this system is still possible during the next couple of days, and a tropical depression could form by this weekend while the low drifts slowly offshore of the Central America coast. Regardless of development, this system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America through this weekend. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to a 1007 mb low pres near 11N91W to a 1007 mb low pres near 06N115W to 06N118W. The ITCZ extends from 06N118W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection north of 04N and east of 92W. Similar convection noted south of 10N and between 108W and 122W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad subtropical ridge centered near 33N136W extends southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the offshore waters of Baja California, along with seas of 6-9 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a series of NW swell sets will continue to impact the Baja California waters through the next several days with seas to rough heights. Fresh winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California and near Cabo Corrientes starting Fri and continue through the weekend, locally strong in the northern Gulf of California. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a cold front moves into the SW Gulf of America Fri night, with these winds persisting through early next week. Expect locally rough seas with these winds. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see Special Features section above for information on low pressure offshore Nicaragua that has potential for tropical development as well as a heavy rainfall threat over portions of Central America. A broad area of low pressure over the offshore waters of Central America is producing scattered showers and thunderstorms. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are occurring in the far offshore waters. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, other than the low pressure area with tropical cyclone formation potential, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail into early next week. Winds may pulse to moderate to fresh offshore of the Gulf of Papagayo and in the Gulf of Panama by Tue night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... An extensive subtropical ridge dominates the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. The tight pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics results in fresh to strong easterly winds and seas of 8-11 ft from 12N to 20N and west of 135W. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds and seas of 8-10 ft are occurring north of 10N and west of 120W. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 6-8 ft in the southern waters. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, moderate to locally strong trades will prevail over the west-central waters through Fri, followed by moderate to fresh winds into early next week. Several sets of NW swell will impact the waters north of 10N through the next several days, with rough seas expected. Merging SE and NW swells are likely to produce rough seas close to the equator for the end of the week and into the upcoming weekend, possibly lingering into early next week.