Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Jun 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 91W, south of 16N, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 03N to 13N between 86W and 93W. A tropical wave is along 98W, south of 15N, drifting westward at 5-10 kt. No significant convection is noted with the tropical wave at this time. A tropical wave is along 107W, south of 17N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed from 08N to 15N between 103W and 109W. A tropical wave is along 128W, south of 17N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. No significant convection is evident near this wave. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W along the coast of Costa Rica to 12N98W. The monsoon trough reforms at 11N111W to 09N130W, where it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ extends beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 03N to 13N between 86W and 93W, from 08N to 15N between 103W and 109W, from 10N-14N between 112W-117W, from 04N-10N west of 127W, and north of 01N east of 83W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh NW winds are across the Baja California offshore waters along with 5-6 ft seas. The strongest winds are N of Cabo San Lazaro. In the southern Gulf of California, winds are gentle to moderate from the SE and seas are slight. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, surface troughing over the Baja California peninsula and the SW United States is promoting moderate to fresh SE winds over the Gulf of California through tomorrow before diminishing. Lowering pressure well south of SE Mexico will help induce a Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event from Tue night through Fri. These N to NE winds should peak at strong to near gale on Wed and Wed night. Elsewhere, winds and seas across the Mexican Offshores should be quiescent. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds and seas to 5 ft are evident across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending downstream to 90W. Farther south, gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas are occurring between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, lowering pressure well south of SE Mexico and Central America will help induce a Gulf of Papagayo region gap wind event beginning tonight, lasting for the next several days. These NE winds should peak at strong from Tue through Thu. Elsewhere winds should remain quiescent through the end of the week. Large S to SW swell should reach the equatorial waters Wed through the end of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The subtropical ridge centered well NW of our waters extends across the eastern Pacific waters north of 20N. Gentle to moderate NE to E winds and moderate seas are found from 10N to 20N west of 115W. Farther south, long period SW swell with wave heights of 7-9 ft are moving into the waters south of 03N between 101W and 120W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, additional pulses of SW swell will continue to propagate across the forecast waters east of 125W generating moderate to locally rough seas. Otherwise, little changes are expected in winds and seas through early next week as a ridge remains in control of the weather pattern across the area. A tropical wave at 107W is forecast to move westward at 10 to 15 kt across the central and western portion of the East Pacific basin, and some slow development is possible during the middle to latter portions of the week. Looking ahead, a low pressure system is expected to form late this week several hundred miles offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Some slow development of this system is possible after that time while it moves west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt.