Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat May 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 98W-99W, S of 13N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. A broad 1009 mb low was depicted by early morning satellite scatterometer data, and is now near 09N99.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11.5N between 94W and 106W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N78W to 09.5N85W to low pres near 09N99.5W 1009 mb to 11N108W to low pres near 09N129W 1008 mb to 06N137W. The ITCZ begins near 06N138W and continues beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 11.5N E of 91W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 11.5N between 107W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends into the region to just S of the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough along NW Mexico is producing moderate to fresh NW to N winds across the Baja California waters this afternoon. NW swell continues to produce moderate to rough seas over these waters, with highest seas to 9 ft along about 21n to the north of the Revillagigedos. Inside the Gulf of California, winds are gentle to moderate from the NW with seas of 2 to 4 ft across south and central section, while winds are light and variable north portions. Elsewhere to the east, mainly light to gentle winds prevail, with moderate seas 4 to 6 ft in SW swell. Showers and thunderstorms have diminished in recent hours across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, NE Pacific high pressure will maintain a ridge across the regional waters through the middle of next week, which will maintain moderate to fresh NW winds across the Baja California offshore waters through Sun, then diminish slightly Sun night through Tue. NW swell moving through the Baja California offshore waters will merge with SW swell across the SW Mexican offshores this evening through Sun evening to produce seas of 7 to 9 ft. New N swell will then enter the Baja California Norte waters Sun morning and subside Mon evening through Tue. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered showers and thunderstorms across the local offshore waters S of 10.5N and E of the Papagayo region to Colombia have diminished significantly in recent hours. Recent satellite scatterometer data showed light to gentle S to SW winds prevailing S of 10N and the monsoon trough, and light and variable winds to the N of 10N, except for locally moderate NE to E winds downstream of the Papagayo region. Seas are mainly moderate in building SW swell, except 7 to 10 ft S of 05N, highest just SW of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern across the region will result in light to gentle winds through the period, with nocturnal pulses of moderate to fresh gap winds across the Papagayo region. Large SW swell will build across the regional waters this evening through Sun evening, and will maintain rough seas across the waters between the Galapagos Islands and Colombia through Sun before subsiding. Otherwise, moderate seas in SW swell will prevail across the forecast waters through Tue before new SW swell reaches the Galapagos Tue night. Expect periods of active convection across the area waters Sun night through Tue. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure covers the waters north of 18N and west of 110W, centered on strong high pressure NE of the Hawaiian Islands. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough/ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds N of the ITCZ to near 22N and west of about 115W. Recent satellite altimeter data showed seas over these waters in the 7 to 11 ft range in a mix of trade wind swell and NW to N swell. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough E of 110W, as well as S of the trough. Seas across the waters S of the trough and ITCZ are generally 7 to 10 ft in building S to SW swell. For the forecast, little change is expected in winds through Sun before high pressure begins to drift N and winds weaken slightly Sun night through early Tue. The current NW to N swell will combine with wind waves produced by the fresh trade winds N of the monsoon/ITCZ leading to rough seas over the waters W of 120W through early Mon. E of 120W, NW to N swell will merge with southerly swell over the central waters during the weekend, with wave heights of 8 to 9 ft forecast to cover a good portion of the waters S through SW of the southern tip of Baja California to the Equator E of 120W, and westward to near 140W. Looking ahead, the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by NHC indicates that a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form early next week well to the southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California peninsula, and west of 120W. Environmental conditions appear conducive for additional development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle part of next week while moving westward or west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt across the western portion of the East Pacific.