Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jul 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Genevieve is centered near 18.0N 116.9W at 28/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 955 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 105 kt with gusts to 130 kt. Peak seas are near 39 ft, or 12 m. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm in the N semicircle, 90 nm in the SE quadrant, and 75 nm in the SW quadrant. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is elsewhere within 240 nm in the NE quadrant, 360 nm in the SE quadrant, and 210 nm in the W semicircle. Genevieve is moving toward the west-northwest, and this general motion is expected during the next few days. Genevieve is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Steady weakening is forecast over the next several days. Swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula. These swells are likely to persist for a few more days, and could cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Genevieve NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 83W, from 06N northward across the border of Panama and Costa Rica into the western Caribbean Sea along the coast of Nicaragua, moving westward at around 10 kt. Any nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. A tropical wave is along 104.5W, from 05N to 15N, moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. Any nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 06N93W to 12N107W, then resumes SW of Genevieve from 11N121W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 360 nm SSW of the monsoon trough between 87W and 108W, within 360 nm NNE of the monsoon trough between 98W and 106W, and within 270 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 125W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Genevieve with tropical storm or greater winds now just beyond the offshore waters. Please refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections above for information about additional convection in the region. Away from the impacts of Genevieve, moderate to locally fresh NW winds associated with high pressure building in from the northwest are impacting waters N and W of Guadalupe Island. Moderate to fresh SE winds persist in the northern Gulf of California. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail. Seas are slight in the Gulf of California and moderate in the remaining offshore waters. For the forecast, Hurricane Genevieve will move to 18.4N 118.1W Wed morning, 19.0N 119.8W Wed afternoon, 19.7N 121.9W Thu morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 20.4N 124.2W Thu afternoon, 21.1N 126.6W Fri morning, and 21.8N 129.1W Fri afternoon. Genevieve will change little in intensity as it moves to 23.3N 134.6W Sat afternoon. Associated seas of rough or greater will finally subside across the offshore waters of Baja California by Thu night. Elsewhere, areas of fresh mainly westerly gap winds are likely through Wed night nearshore Baja California and also in the Gulf of California as high pressure builds southward to the west of the Baja California Peninsula. Fresh northerly winds may pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec at night into the early morning hours Thu night and Fri night. Looking ahead, fresh and rough northerly swell off California may push southward into the waters off Baja California Norte by the end of the upcoming weekend into early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections above for information about convection in the region. High pressure northeast of the area is forcing moderate to fresh easterly gap winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through the upcoming weekend, with occasionally rough seas. Pulsing moderate to locally fresh N winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama tonight and Wed night. Southerly winds may freshen offshore southern Colombia and from Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands Fri. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected across the remainder of the waters through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Genevieve. For waters not being impacted by Hurricane Genevieve, 1025 mb high pressure centered near 34N139W dominates. The pressure pattern between the high and Genevieve are supporting moderate to fresh NE to E trades from offshore southern California around the periphery of the ridge including from 20N to 30N and west of 120W, and from 08N to 20N and west of 130W. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are found south of 07N and west of 115W. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere. Moderate seas dominate the waters away from Genevieve, locally rough along 03.4S between 95W and 120W. For the forecast, Hurricane Genevieve will move to 18.4N 118.1W Wed morning, 19.0N 119.8W Wed afternoon, 19.7N 121.9W Thu morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 20.4N 124.2W Thu afternoon, 21.1N 126.6W Fri morning, and 21.8N 129.1W Fri afternoon. Genevieve will change little in intensity as it moves to 23.3N 134.6W Sat afternoon. Away from Genevieve, little change in marine conditions is forecast across the remainder of the waters into next weekend. Looking ahead, fresh and rough northerly swell off California may push southward into the waters off Baja California Norte north of 27N and east of 130W by the end of the upcoming weekend into early next week.