Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jan 1 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Swell NW Waters: Large NW swell behind a cold front will continue to propagate into the NW waters over the next few days, causing seas to build to over 12 ft for waters N of 25N and W of 125W into the weekend. Very rough seas will peak as high as 18 ft tonight into Friday along 30N W of 135W. The swell will gradually decay over the weekend, with seas falling below 12 ft by late Sun. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 08N86W to 05N98W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N98W to 10N120W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 07N E of 84W and from 09N to 16N between 107W and 116W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure in the Gulf of America is forcing strong gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, which are causing rough seas. Fresh to locally strong NW winds are also ongoing offshore Jalisco, south of Cabo Corrientes. Nearby, a broader area of moderate to fresh NW to N winds is impacting waters from the southern Gulf of California to E of the Revillagigedo Islands, as far S as around 17N. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker, and seas are slight to moderate. In the northern and central Gulf of California, light winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, strong gap winds will diminish in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Fri, but may return starting Sat night. Fresh to locally strong NNW winds offshore Jalisco extending northward to the mouth of the Gulf of California will diminish to moderate speeds Fri night. Long period NW swell will bring rough seas to the Baja California offshore waters Sat night into Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure N of the region is supporting strong NE to E gap winds in the Papagayo region, along with seas of 6 to 9 ft. Moderate to fresh N winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Panama, reaching as far south as 05N. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will continue to support strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo with moderate to rough seas into Fri. Winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Panama into tonight. Mainly gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on significant swell in the northwest waters leading to very rough seas into the weekend. A cold front extends from 30N136W to 27N140W. Ahead of the front, strong SW winds are N of 27N, extending E of 131W. Behind the front, strong W to NW winds are ongoing. Rough seas are building in both areas of strong winds. A 1013 mb low pressure is centered near 26N122W. A stationary front extends NE from this low across to Southern California. A trough stretches SW of the low to 20N126W. The impacts of gap winds are leading to fresh NE to E winds across a zone from 06N and 11N between 91W and 103W. Fresh E to SE winds are also ongoing S of the ITCZ between 116W and 135W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker, and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the cold front will reach from 30N132W to 24N140W later tonight. Strong winds are expected on both sides of the front through Fri. By the end of the weekend, seas 8 ft or great should encompass waters N of 08N and W of 118W. gap winds in Tehuantepec will diminish tonight allowing winds and seas to lessen south of that region. The fresh winds S of the ITCZ will also diminish tonight.