Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Thu Jun 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1930 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 107W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 10N-18N between 98W-108W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 122W, south of 21N, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring with this system this morning. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from coastal Costa Rica at 09N84W to 07N97W to 11N119W to 09N124W. The ITCZ extends from 10N124W to beyond 08N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 10N-18N between 98W-108W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is also noted from 03N-06N between 103W-109W, from 02N-07N between 91W-96W, and north of 03N between 81W-87W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Tehuantepec gap wind event is producing fresh to strong N to NE winds with seas 7-8 ft this afternoon. A surface ridge extends from 27N120W southeastward to 20N110W. Winds elsewhere across the offshore waters are moderate or weaker. Seas on the Pacific waters are 5-6 ft in S to SW swell and are 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California waters. For the forecast, low pressure over the deep tropics will continue inducing fresh to strong N to NE gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through tomorrow night. Elsewhere, winds and seas across the Mexican offshore waters should be quiescent through early next week. Looking ahead, large NW swell may move into the waters off Baja California Norte starting Sun night. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A gap wind event is forcing fresh to strong NE winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region this afternoon with seas 7-9 ft. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 7-9 ft in S swell over the equatorial waters and 5-6 ft in SW swell over the remainder of the offshore waters. For the forecast, the pressure difference between high pressure north of the area and the monsoon trough farther south is supporting a Gulf of Papagayo region gap wind event. Fresh to strong NE to E winds should last through early next week. Elsewhere, winds should remain quiescent. Large S swell moving into the equatorial waters will continue through Sat night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1008 mb low is centered near 18N122W. Winds within 180 NM in the N semicircle are fresh to strong with seas 6-8 ft. A surface ridge extends from a 1032 mb high at 37N154W southeastward to 30N128W to 27N120W to 20N110W. The moderate pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the monsoon trough/ITCZ is forcing moderate to fresh NE trades between 10N and the ridge. Elsewhere, winds across the open Pacific are moderate or weaker. Seas are 5-8 ft in mixed SW and N swell. For the forecast, the low is no longer a candidate for tropical development and should open up into a trough tomorrow. The tropical wave near 107W is forecast to encounter more favorable conditions for development over the weekend across the central portion of the East Pacific basin. A tropical depression is likely to form by the early to middle part of next week while the wave moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt over the west-central eastern Pacific. Outside of this system, little change in winds are expected for the next several days. A large SE swell should reach our southern border tonight and reach up to 01N with at least 8 ft seas for the next several days.