Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jul 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 81W to the north of 06N, moving westward around 15 kt. Any nearby convection is described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. A tropical wave is analyzed along 129W from 02N to 16N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Any nearby convection is described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N75W to 06N91W. The ITCZ extends from 06N91W to 09N106W to 05N120W to 07N128W, then resumes W of a tropical wave from 07N131W to 09N138.5W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 02.5N to 05.5N between 80W and 84W, and from 08N to 13N between 135W and 140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is active from 04N to 09N between 95W and 115W, and from 03N to 14N between 116W and 134W. Similar convection is active from 12N to 14N between 98W and 103W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends across the waters W of 110W. Surface troughing is found from NW to SE across the Gulf of California. This pressure pattern supports moderate to fresh winds offshore Baja California mainly from Punta Eugenia northward. A small plume of fresh to strong gap winds is found in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft across the offshore waters in S to SW swell, except mixed with NW swell offshore Baja California. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California N of the entrance. Active convection is present offshore southern and SW Mexico as described above. For the forecast, the ridging will persist off Baja California through mid week, with lower pressure inland over northwest Mexico. This pattern will support fresh to occasionally strong NW winds off Baja California Norte through Wed night, with rough seas in NW swell near Guadalupe Island. These winds will diminish Thu, as low pressure moves off the Pacific into the lower Colorado River Valley. This will result in fresh to strong S winds and rough seas late Thu into Fri over the Gulf of California. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the week. Looking ahead, lowering pressure across the tropical eastern Pacific will induce fresh to strong winds and occasionally rough seas offshore southern Mexico by the weekend. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A wide plume of fresh to strong NE to E gap winds persist across the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 93W, where seas are 6-9 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds are elsewhere to the N of 08.5N. Moderate N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama downwind to near 04N82W. Moderate SE winds are across the offshore waters of the Galapagos Islands, where seas are 6-9 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle winds are across the remainder of the waters, along with 4-7 ft mainly in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE-E gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo region into early Thu along with rough seas, then moderate to fresh winds thereafter. Cross equatorial SW swell will move through the waters off Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Wed, with seas peaking around 9 ft. The combination of the southerly swell with shorter period seas associated with gap winds will allow combined seas to build to a peak of about 8 ft offshore of northern Central America through Wed. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere, with locally fresh N winds in the Gulf of Panama tonight. Looking ahead, lowering pressure across the tropical eastern Pacific will induce fresh to strong winds and occasionally rough seas offshore El Salvador and Guatemala by the end weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A trough, the remnant of Douglas, is along 136W from 23N to 29N. Elsewhere, a broad ridge dominates the waters north of 16N, supporting moderate NE winds and 5-7 ft seas in a mix of N and SW swell. Fresh NE winds and seas to 9 ft are also noted farther S ahead of the tropical wave near 129W, specifically from 10N to 20N between 125W and 135W. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are ongoing near a surface trough between 136W and 140W along with fresh to strong winds within 90 nm of the trough. Rough seas are likely accompanying the strong winds. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere. Long period SW swell to 8 ft is reaching 05N between 90W and 120W. Combined seas are mainly 5-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas will follow the trough near 140W until it moves W of the discussion waters overnight. Strong winds and rough seas will also accompany the tropical wave near 129W at it moves westward at 15 to 20 kt, reaching 135W by Wed night, and past 140W by late Fri. Farther N, swell of 8-9 ft will persist north of 25N to the E of 125W through Fri. Farther S, large swell to 7-8 ft will persist south of 05N or so between 95W and 120W through Fri.