Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jan 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 18 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2130 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Pressure gradient will tighten further in the Tehuantepec region this evening as an arctic high pressure builds southward over eastern Mexico. Therefore, N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will reach strong to near-gale force this evening, then gale to strong-gale force tonight and Sat, possibly lasting until late Tue. Seas are expected to peak at 18 to 22 ft Sat night. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 08N84W to 04N97W, where it transitions to the ITCZ and continues through 06N120W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 07N between 86W and 89W...and from 06N to 10N between 113W and 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above on a Gale Warning. The pressure gradient between surface ridging west of the Baja Peninsula and a surface trough over western Mexico is supporting fresh to strong NW winds in the Gulf of California. Seas are slight to moderate over these waters. Fresh to near-gale winds, and seas of 7 to 9 ft, are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Rough seas in NW swell has moved into the waters NW of Guadalupe Island. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas. For the forecast, a strong cold front that will move across the Gulf of America will usher in another round of gale conditions in the Tehuantepec region beginning this evening. These winds should reach strong-gale force, with seas possibly peaking at 18 to 22 ft Sat through Sun morning. These conditions will gradually improve by Tue afternoon. Fresh to strong NW to N winds will prevail across the Gulf of California before diminishing Sat afternoon. Residual NW swell over the waters west of Baja California Norte will decay further through this evening. Afterward, another set of NW swell will impact the same general area late Sun night through Tue. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong to near-gale NE winds, and rough seas, prevail in the Gulf of Papagayo region extending westward to near 89W. Moderate to fresh gap winds prevail over and downstream of the Gulf of Panama, with moderate seas. Over the remainder of forecast waters, gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will possibly peak at gale-force Sun night through Tue as an Arctic high pressure building over the eastern United States helps tighten the pressure gradient. An upcoming gale force gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will produce rough to very rough seas over the western Guatemala and El Salvador waters Sat night through Mon. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds along with rough seas are also expected near the Gulf of Panama Sat evening through Tue night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging prevails across the waters N of 20N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trades from north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of about 120W. A cold front is beginning to cross 30N140W and large NW swell associated with it is moving ahead of it, mainly north of 27N and W of 120W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas in mixed swell, prevail. For the forecast, the weakening high pressure will loosen the pressure gradient and diminish winds slightly over the tradewind waters. Residual NW swell will gradually decay into Sat. The aforementioned cold front is going to push farther eastward tonight while weakening through Sat, and dissipating on Sun. Regardless, it will usher in a set of large NW swell, with rough to very rough seas impacting the waters north of 15N and west of 130W through Sun, then rough seas further spreading southeastward to cover the waters north of 05N and west of 120W by Mon before gradually subsiding.