Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jul 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 86W to the north of 04N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. No significant convection is noted at this time. A tropical wave is analyzed along 109W, from 03N to 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the wave axis S of 13N. A tropical wave is analyzed along 135W from 02N to 16N, moving westward at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 14N between 131W and 138W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 04N124W. The ITCZ is from that point to 05N131W. Scattered moderate convection is active within 90 nm S of the monsoon trough and E of 83W, and within 300 nm on either side of the boundaries and W of 94W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh NW winds and 6-7 ft seas prevail off Baja California Norte between high pressure west of the area and lower pressure over northwest Mexico. Farther south, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds are active across the Tehuantepec region, with 6-8 ft seas. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4-6 ft seas are noted elsewhere, except 1-4 ft seas across the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh NW winds off Baja California Norte through tonight, with rough seas in NW swell near Guadalupe Island into Thu. These winds will diminish Thu, as low pressure moves off the Pacific into the lower Colorado River Valley. This will result in fresh to strong S winds and rough seas late Thu into Fri over the Gulf of California. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the week. Lowering pressure across the tropical eastern Pacific will induce fresh to strong winds and rough seas offshore southern Mexico by the weekend. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds persist across the Papagayo region and Nicaragua, extending offshore to near 90W. Seas are estimated to be 6-8 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere to the N of 08N. Gentle N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama downwind to near 07N, with seas to 5 ft. Moderate SE winds are across the offshore waters of the Galapagos Islands, where seas are 5-7 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle winds are across the remainder of the waters, along with 4-6 ft mainly in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE-E gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo region through late Sun, mainly at night and into the morning hours. Cross equatorial SW swell will move through the waters off Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through tonight, with seas peaking around 9 ft. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere. Lowering pressure across the tropical eastern Pacific will induce fresh to strong winds and rough seas offshore El Salvador and Guatemala by Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough, the remnant of Douglas, is along 140W from 24N to 30N. Elsewhere, a broad ridge dominates the waters north of 15N, supporting moderate NE winds and 5-7 ft seas in a mix of N and SW swell. Fresh NE winds and seas 7-8 ft are also noted farther S near the tropical wave near 135W. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere. Long period SW swell to 8 ft is reaching 05N between 90W and 120W. Combined seas are mainly 5-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, strong winds and rough seas will accompany the tropical wave near 135W at it moves westward at 10-15 kt, past 140W by late Fri. Farther N, swell of 8-9 ft will persist north of 25N to the E of 125W through Fri. Farther S, large swell to 7-8 ft will persist south of 05N or so between 95W and 120W through Fri.