Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Oct 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 19.6N 112.1W at 03/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 973 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft (11 M). Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is noted within 90 nm of center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 17N to 21N between 110W and 115W. Rachel is moving slowly toward the west-northwest, and this slow motion is expected to continue through tonight. A west to west-northwest motion is then expected Sunday through the middle of next week, with a gradual increase in forward speed. Some weakening is forecast during the next day or so, with some slight restrengthening possible on Monday. Rachel is forecast to remain a hurricane for the next few days. Swells generated by Rachel will continue to affect the coast of west-central Mexico through the weekend and the Baja California Peninsula through Monday. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 06N90W to 10N105W, then resumes W of Rachel near 10N120W to 15N130W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 16N between 94W and 103W, and from 11N to 16N between 108W and 118W. Clusters of moderate to strong convection are seen from 00N to 09N W of 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of the areas impacted by Hurricane Rachel, gentle to moderate winds, and moderate to rough seas, prevail over the offshore waters of Mexico. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are in the Gulf of California. Seas of 8 ft or greater generated by Rachel are impacting the entrance to the Gulf of California, the offshore waters of Baja California Sur, and the offshore waters of southwestern Mexico north of Guerrero. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 19.9N 112.8W this evening, 20.2N 113.7W Sun morning, 20.3N 114.8W Sun evening, 20.5N 116.1W Mon morning, 20.7N 117.7W Mon evening, and 20.8N 119.3W Tue morning. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.3N 122.6W early Wed. Seas generated by Rachel will continue to propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California, and mainly south of Punta Eugenia, through at least Mon. Rough seas will persist over the southern Gulf of California, including the entrance to the Gulf through Sun night. Moderate to fresh W to NW winds are expected in the Tehuantepec region through Sun, then winds and seas may increase late this weekend into early next week as an area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the southern coast of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the region. For the forecast, a weak pressure gradient across the region will maintain moderate or weaker winds over the offshore waters along with mostly moderate seas through the period. Winds and seas may increase across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador early next week as an area of low pressure is forecast to form late this weekend or early next week south of the southern coast of Mexico. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel. Outside of Hurricane Rachel, a ridge dominates the northern forecast waters, mainly N of 20N and W of 120W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds N of the monsoon trough and W of 120W. A band of fresh to strong SW to W winds, with rough seas, is south of Hurricane Rachel, affecting the area from 11N to 15N between 108W and 115W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Rough seas associated with Rachel dominate the waters from 10N to 26N between 102W and 118W. Moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 19.9N 112.8W this evening, 20.2N 113.7W Sun morning, 20.3N 114.8W Sun evening, 20.5N 116.1W Mon morning, 20.7N 117.7W Mon evening, and 20.8N 119.3W Tue morning. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.3N 122.6W early Wed. Rough seas generated by Rachel will cover the waters roughly from 10N to 27N between 101W and 120W during the weekend.