Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Oct 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Simon is centered near 19.7N 108.1W at 1500 UTC, moving southwest at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 975 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Peak seas are near 18 ft. Simon remains a small system, with recent satellite scatterometer data showing winds to 20 kt only extending 90 nm from center. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is within 75 nm W and SW of the center. The hurricane is moving slowly southwestward within very weak steering currents. This will likely cause the system to meander well offshore of west- central Mexico during the next couple of days with little change in intensity forecast. By Thu evening, a northwestward or north- northwestward turn is expected to commence. Interests in west- central Mexico and Baja California Sur should continue to closely monitor the latest updates. Additional watches or warnings could be required over the next day or two. Large swells generated by Simon will likely affect portions of the coast of west- central Mexico and Baja California Sur over the next several days. These swells are likely to cause large and powerful surf and life- threatening rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Simon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Trudy is centered near 11.5N 99.5W at 1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 998 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are estimated at near 20 ft. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 10N to 15.5N between 94W and 102W. Trudy is forecast to continue on a general northwestward to west- northwestward motion the next few days. Trudy is expected to rapidly intensify and should become a hurricane within 24 hours, reach major hurricane status somewhere around 48 hours and continue to intensify for around 60-72 hours before starting a weakening trend. Trudy is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the coast of southwestern and west- central Mexico late this week and into the weekend. Residents of southwestern and west-central Mexico should continue to closely monitor the progress of Trudy, and be ready to possibly implement their hurricane plan. There is an increasing risk of wind, rain, and storm surge impacts, and watches could be required for a portion of these areas later today. Swells generated by Trudy will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico Thu into the weekend, and southern Baja California later this weekend. These swells are likely to cause large and powerful surf and life- threatening rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Trudy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 12N72.5W to 09.5N79W to 10.5N91W, then resumes from near 08N101W to 05N112W. The ITCZ extends from 05N112W to 04N122W to 07N135W to beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 08.5N between 83W and 93W, and from 00N to 04.5N between 99W and 114W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 00N to 07.5N W of 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Trudy. Aside from conditions associated with Simon and Trudy, moderate to locally fresh northerly winds prevail across the waters west of Baja California and extend to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are in the 6 to 9 ft range in merging SW and NW swell. Fresh to strong northerly winds, and moderate seas to 6 ft are over the northern Gulf of California and spread through the Tiburon Basin. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, are over the remainder of the Gulf of California. Fresh NE winds extend across the Gulf of Tehuantepec southwestward to the northern periphery of Trudy. Seas to 8 ft and greater extend to the north of Trudy to 14.5N between 97W and 99W. Light to gentle winds, and moderate seas, are noted elsewhere. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms associated with Trudy are within 45 nm of the coasts Oaxaca and SE Guerrero. For the forecast, Hurricane Simon will drift slowly S to SW through Thu, reaching near 19.2N 108.3W Thu afternoon, then begin to move north-northwestward, reaching near 19.9N 108.7W Fri morning, near 21.2N 109.7W Fri afternoon, and weaken to a tropical storm near 22.6N 110.6W Sat morning, then gradually weaken to a remnant low near 26.9N 113.6W Mon morning. To the E, Tropical Storm Trudy will move to 12.1N 100.4W late this afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 12.9N 101.2W Thu morning, reach near 13.7N 101.7W late Thu afternoon, near 14.6N 102.0W Fri morning, near 15.5N 102.4W late Fri afternoon as a major hurricane, and near 16.5N 103.0W Sat morning. Trudy will then begin to weaken and reach near 18.4N 105.0W Sun morning and near 19.9N 106.9W Mon morning. Elsewhere rough seas in NW swell west of Baja California will gradually diminish today through Thu. A Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected late this week through the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of America. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds and seas continue to gradually diminish across the outer offshore waters to the southwest of Guatemala as Trudy moves westward and away from the area. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas to 6 ft in SW swell prevail over the remainder of the offshore waters. Showers and thunderstorms impacting the waters of of 85W since yesterday have diminished significantly this morning, with clusters of moderate convection offshore of eastern Costa Rica and Nicaragua. For the forecast, winds and seas well offshore of Guatemala will diminish today as Trudy moves further from the area. New SW swell will bring rough seas over the waters south of the Galapagos Islands Fri and Sat. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds, and moderate seas dominated by SW swell across much of the forecast waters through the remainder of the week and into the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and rough seas cover the waters from 15N to 27N and west of 115W, where an old cold front has recently dissipated. Seas are 7 to 9 ft n NW swell across this area. Light to gentle winds and moderate to rough seas in merging NW and SW swell generally prevail S of 18N W of 100W, except for moderate winds near the equator. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are within 180 nm either side of a surface trough S of 15N and along 127W. For the forecast, large SW swell moving into the regional waters this morning will raise seas to 8 ft and greater to the S of 07N and west of 105W over the next couple of days, followed by another pulse of large S-SW swell arriving into the waters W of 100W Wed night.