Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED

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Tropical Weather Discussion...CORRECTED NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jul 12 2026 CORRECTED TO ADD SPECIAL FEATURES SECTION Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the early or middle portions of next week while the system moves generally WNW well off the coast of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at website -https://www.nhc.noaa.gov for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 92W, and extends northward across southern Mexico moving westward at around 15-20 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 17N between 85W and 100W. The axis of a tropical wave is along 130W from 07N to 17N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 127W and 131W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 07N83W to 07N110W to 10N124W to 06N140W. The ITCZ stretches westward beyond 06N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is seen from 00N to 10N E of 86W to the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate convection is from 07N to 16N between 115W and 120W, and from 03N to 10N between 100W and 108W, and from 05N to 16N between 116W and 123W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting light to gentle winds, also in the Gulf of California. Seas are slight to moderate across the Baja offshores and slight along the Gulf. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with moderate seas. Over the SW Mexican offshores, winds are gentle to moderate from the NW and seas are generally moderate, primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through the middle of next week producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds along with moderate seas in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds and mainly slight seas will prevail during this period. Similarly, pulses of fresh to strong winds will persist in the Tehuantepec region through Thu night. Otherwise, a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico has the potential for gradual development into a tropical depression during the early or middle portions of next week while the system moves generally WNW well off the coast of Mexico. Regarless of development, this system is likely to bring fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas across the offshore waters of SW Mexico starting late Sun into Sun night. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are across the Papagayo region. Similar wind speeds are also noted in the Gulf of Fonseca area. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW prevail elsewhere. Abundant cloudiness with embedded showers and thunderstorms are noted across the offshore waters from Colombia to Guatemala. Winds and seas could be higher near thunderstorms. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region through Thu night along with moderate to rough seas. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas may impact the waters offshore El Salvador and Guatemala Sun through Mon night as a broad area of low pressure persists several hundred miles south of the SW coast of Mexico. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands where slight seas are expected. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge prevails across the waters N of 18N W of 110W. Under the influence of the ridge, light to gentle winds are noted N of 20N and E of 130W while gentle to moderate NE winds dominate the waters N of 10N W of 130W. A couple of tropical waves are moving westward across the waters S of 20N. A surface trough is analyzed from 17N114W to 06N119W. Scattered moderate convection is near the trough axis, which is well defined. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with moderate seas. For the forecast, a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the southern coast of Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the early or middle portions of next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days.