Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Jul 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 107W, south of 17N, moving west around 10 kt. Associated convection is described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 11N80W to 06N87W to 07N94W. The ITCZ extends from 07N94W to 08.5N105W, then resumes from 07.5N109W to 06.5N128W to 04.5N132W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is N of 03N and into the SW Caribbean E of 85W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 06N to 11.5N between 88W and 102W, from 05.5N to 12.5N between 102W and 123W, and from 01.5N to 08.5N between 123W and 136W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge extends from the NE Pacific across the Baja California waters to the Revillagigedo Islands, and is maintaining the recent pattern of gentle to moderate NW to N winds, with 5-6 ft seas in merging NW and SW swell. Gentle breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere to Puerto Angel. Fresh N to NE gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec extend southward to near 14N, where seas are 5 to 7 ft. Scattered showers and thunderstorms occurring well N of a passing tropical wave along 107W have diminished in coverage across the offshore waters of Guerrero and Colima. For the forecast, the ridge extending into the Baja California waters will strengthens modestly across the area this evening through Tue night, leading to moderate to occasionally fresh winds across the Baja California waters. Fresh to strong gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through tonight, then diminish through Mon. Looking ahead, cross-equatorial SW swell will reach the waters off southern Mexico on Mon, building seas to around 7 ft. Expect fresh southerly winds across the northern Gulf of California Tue and Wed becoming strong on Thu. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Large clusters of moderate to strong thunderstorms have developed again across the waters N of 04N and across Panama, Costa Rica, and southeastern Nicaragua, and extend northward into the SW Caribbean. Midday satellite scatterometer data showed fresh to strong NE gap winds continuing across the Papagayo region and into the central Nicaragua waters, extending offshore to 90W, where seas are 5-8 ft. Moderate NE gap winds extend offshore from the Gulf of Fonseca and NW Nicaragua. Mostly gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted elsewhere S of 10N, where recent satellite altimeter data shows seas of 4-6 ft in cross- equatorial SW swell. For the forecast, the active thunderstorms across the eastern waters are expected to generally shift northward tonight into Sun and into the SW Caribbean. Fresh NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to strong tonight, and then again Mon night and Tue night, leading to rough seas. Large cross- equatorial southerly swell will move into the waters off Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands late Sun through Tue, building seas to 8 to 9 ft, and 6 to 7 ft across much of the remaining waters farther N. The combination of the southerly swell with shorter period seas associated with gap winds will allow combined seas to build to 8 ft offshore of northern Central America Tue through Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge continues across the NE Pacific and north of the area waters this afternoon, extending southeastward through 30N126W and to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the remnant low of Douglas, now a 1010 mb low near 22.5N129.5W, is producing fresh to strong winds around the low, from 22.5N to 28N between 127W and 134W. Peak seas are still to 12 ft across the NW quadrant of this low. The ridge draping over this low pressure area continues to support mostly gentle to moderate NE to E winds elsewhere north of 20N and west of 120W, with 5-8 ft seas in a mix of swell. East of 120W, a long plume of fresh E winds and 7-8 ft seas emerging from the Papagayo gap area is reaching as far west as 125W, from 06N to 13N. Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere east of 120W. Wave heights are 6-8 ft there in SW swell. Active thunderstorms continue about the tropical wave along 107W, between 100W and 118W. For the forecast, winds and seas near the remnants of Douglas will gradually diminish through Sun night as the remnant low moves NW, weakens and opens into a trough. The ridge will drift southwestward and generally persist across the region through early next week, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds farther south into the tropics. Looking ahead, weak low pressure may form south or southwest of the Revillagigedo Islands by the early to middle part of the coming week. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system while it moves generally westward at 10-15 kt, although chances of development at this time are low.