Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Nov 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0255 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to a 1010 mb low pres near 10N92W to 08N95W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N95W to 06N110W and to 13N127W. The monsoon trough resumes from 08N132W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 15N and west of 100W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The tight pressure gradient between a broad high pressure system over the southern United States and lower pressures in the deep tropics continue to support fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft across the Gulf of Tehuantepec basin. Meanwhile, weak high pressure dominates the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters sustaining moderate or weaker winds. Long-period NW swell is producing seas of 7-11 ft in the offshore waters of Baja California, with the highest seas occurring west of Guadalupe island. Elsewhere, slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh northerly winds and rough seas around 8 ft will pulse to strong at night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the remainder of the week. Strong gap winds to near gale force are expected Tue night. Rough seas in NW swell will continue across the Baja offshore waters through Tue as new swell arrives tonight, then begin to diminish Tue night through Thu. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds and rough seas approaching 12 ft are expected to reach the offshore waters of Baja California on Fri, associated with a frontal system, with yet larger NW swell arriving Sat. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure centered north of the the Caribbean supports moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate northerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are occurring in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds will funnel across the Papagayo region and extend to 90W through Wed night, then diminish into the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse in the western Gulf of Panama through Wed morning. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds, and moderate seas in mixed SW to W swell, will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad subtropical ridge centered on a 1024 mb high near 30N136W dominates the eastern Pacific basin, and supports moderate to fresh easterly winds north of 10N, and west of 120W. Seas N of 10N and W of 120W are 8 to 11 ft in NW swell. A broad surface trough from 07N131W to 15N126W is producing scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 07N to 16N and between 115W and 133W, where fresh to locally strong winds prevail. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh SE winds and seas to 10 ft are occurring south of 03N between 100W and 120W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure will support moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough seas across the trade waters during the next few days. New large NW swell moving into the north and western waters will reach from 10N140W to the Revillagigedo Islands by Tue night. The mixed swell over the equatorial waters will persist for the next several days. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will reach our NW border at 30N140W by midday Wed, bringing with it fresh to strong NW winds and very large seas in NW swell north of 20N through the end of the week. Even larger reinforcing NW swell may arrive Fri afternoon or evening to the NW waters, possibly in excess of 20 ft.