Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Feb 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Large NW Swell: Large NW swell continues to move southeastward across the NW waters, behind a cold front which extends from 30N122W to 19.5N140W. Seas of 12 ft and greater have reached as far S as 23N to the W of 128W, with peak seas currently around 17 ft near 29N138W, as recently shown in satellite altimeter data. Rough seas of 12 ft and greater will continue to propagate southeastward and reach the waters N of 21N and W of 121W by this evening, then begin to slowly subside, with seas 12 ft and greater N of 23N and W of 118W by early Tue. Seas will then continue to subside to less than 12 ft Tue evening, before new N swell enters the northern waters by early Wed, raising seas above 12 ft across the waters N of 29N between 120W and 135W Wed morning, and spreading southward through Thu. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 09N77W to 05.5N80W to 03.5N90W. The ITCZ extends from 03.5N90W to 01N111W to 03N131W to beyond 00N140W. Widely scattered moderate convection is noted S of 07.5N and E of 87W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 01N to 09N between 125W and 137W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Weakening high pressure just NW of the Revillagigedo Islands continues to produce a broad ridge south-southeastward from offshore Baja California to offshore of Cabo Corrientes, while elongated troughing remains just inland across western Mexico. Strong northerly winds to 30 kt have developed overnight in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, due to a cold front moving through the Bay of Campeche to the N, and building high pressure across the Gulf of Mexico behind the front. Mostly W to NW winds are across the most of the offshore waters, from Baja Norte to Puerto Angel. Ahead of an approaching cold front reaching along 122W, fresh to strong southerly winds are now occurring across the far western offshore waters of Baja Norte to the N of Punta Eugenia, and fresh to locally strong SW winds in the northern Gulf of California. NW swell is moving out ahead of the front, and has begun to enter the offshore waters of Baja Norte, where seas are now 7 to 9 ft NW of Isla Guadalupe, while seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail across the remainder of the Baja California waters and W of 110W, and 3 to 6 ft elsewehre. Seas in the northern Gulf of California have built to 3 to 5 ft in recent hours. For the forecast, fresh to near gale-force northerly winds will persist in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as a cold front moves by to the N through the Bay of Campeche with high pressure building behind it. Those winds will persist into early Tue before diminishing. A cold front will approach Baja California later today with troughing ahead of it supporting fresh to near gale- force SW winds in the northern Gulf of California later this morning through early Tue, with similar winds early Wed as the actual front shifts by. Fresh to strong SW-W winds offshore Baja California N of Punta Eugenia will be ahead of the front late tonight, diminishing by early Tue. High pressure will build in across the waters offshore Baja California in the wake of the front, with fresh to locally strong winds nearshore Baja California to near Cabo Corrientes by mid-week. New rough to very rough NW swell will move into the waters offshore Baja California later today through Wed, getting reinforced Wed night through the end of the week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh offshore gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region, while moderate northerly winds are occurring across the Gulf of Panama and veer NE and pass south of the Azuero Peninsula. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere. Seas are 3 to 4 ft from offshore Colombia northwestward, and 4 to 5 ft offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, and downwind of Papagayo. For the forecast, fresh NE to E gap winds and moderate seas will persist across the Papagayo region, pulsing to fresh to strong this evening as high pressure builds across Central America. Those winds will continue to pulse through at least early Thu, then become moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate to locally fresh N-NE winds will pulse from the Gulf of Panama to near the Azuero Peninsula through mid-week. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will change little through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on Significant Very Rough NW Swell forecast for the NW waters. A cold front continues to move southeastward over the NW waters, extending from 30N122W to 19.5N140W. Fresh to strong NW to N winds and building seas are behind the front, while fresh to strong southerly winds prevail E of the front, N of 24N and W of 118W. Weakening 1015 mb high pressure prevails ahead of the front. Moderate to locally fresh trades are from 07N to 16N between 110W and 140W with moderate or weaker winds elsewhere. Seas are 5 to 8 ft in fading NW to N swell prevail N of the ITCZ to 15N and W of 120W, and are 5 to 7 ft across the remainder of the open waters ahead of the front. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms have developed near the ITCZ, from 01N to 09N between 125W and 137W. For the forecast, other than the Significant Large NW Swell entering the NW waters, the cold front with fresh to strong winds behind it will reach from near Punta Eugenia to 14N130W by early Tue. Winds N of 20N behind the front will gradually diminish from W to E tonight through Tue as the front weakens and continues moving eastward, before gradually dissipating. High pressure will build in the wake of the front Tue through Thu as a low to middle-level disturbance develops S of 20N and near 140W. This scenario will produce a broad fresh to strong trades N of the ITCZ to 24N and W of 120W late Tue through early Fri, Expect active showers and thunderstorms, with rough to very rough seas in NW swell to accompany these increasing trades.