Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Sep 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 24.2N 123.2W at 07/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 983 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 60 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Peak seas are to near 28 ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is within 120 nm SE quadrant. Scattered moderate convection is within 60 nm elsewhere of center, except 90 nm SW quadrant. Steady weakening is expected to continue for the next several days, and Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low Tuesday night or early Wednesday. Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep3.shtml?ripCurrents Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 108W from 04N to 19N, moving westward at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered showers are noted along the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 09N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is within 500 nm S of the trough. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on T.S. Marie centered about 480 nm west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Fresh to strong southeast to south winds on the outer fringe of Hurricane Marie are over the outer offshore waters from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro. Seas within these winds are 8 to 12 ft in southwest to west swell. Moderate or weaker winds and rough seas in southwest to west swell are over the rest of the Baja California offshore waters. Over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Marie will move to 24.6N 124.0W Mon morning, 25.1N 125.3W Mon evening, 26.0N 126.5W Tue morning, 27.4N 127.5W Tue evening, weaken to a remnant low near 29.4N 128.5W Wed morning, and 31.6N 129.7W Wed evening. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves to 35.3N 133.3W by late Thu. A trough of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the middle or latter portions of this week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Earlier satellite Ascat data captured fresh northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas are 5 to 7 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are affecting much of the offshore waters of Central America and Colombia, some of which may be accompanied by gusty winds and higher seas. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the next several days. Building ridging by the middle of the week will result in strong gap winds and rough seas there, with winds possibly reaching near gale Wed night. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected across the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Tue through Wed. Moderate or lighter winds are expected elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information about T.S. Marie located about 480 nm west-southwest of Punta Eugenia, Mexico. Outside from marine impacts attributed to T.S. Marie over the northeast portion of this part of the region, fresh cyclonic winds and rough seas persist from 21N to 28N and west of 138W associated with the outer eastern quadrant of the remnants of Karina that continues to move farther away from the eastern Pacific basin. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds with seas of 5 to 7 ft are prevalent across the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Marie will move to 24.6N 124.0W Mon morning, 25.1N 125.3W Mon evening, 26.0N 126.5W Tue morning, 27.4N 127.5W Tue evening, weaken to a remnant low near 29.4N 128.5W Wed morning, and 31.6N 129.7W Wed evening. Marie will change little in intensity as it moves to 35.3N 133.3W by late Thu. Cross equatorial swell will produce seas to 8 ft in the southern waters west of about 100W during much of the week. A trough of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles south- southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the middle or latter portions of this week while the system moves generally west-northwestward.