Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat May 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Northern Gulf of California Gale Warning: A strong ridge of high pressure just west of the Baja California Peninsula is going to induce a gale wind event in the northern and central Gulf of California this evening through early Mon morning. These winds will stay at fresh to strong through Sun but will peak at near-gale to gale-force at the northern Gulf of California on Sun night, along with seas near 9 ft. As the ridge weakens on Mon, both winds and seas should quickly subside through Mon afternoon. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpc.php for more detail. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends west-southwestward from southwestern Costa Rica to 08N94W to 05N100W. An ITCZ continues westward from 05N100W across 08N120W to beyond 06N140W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is seen from 02N to 08N east of 89W, including offshore waters of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 04N to 08N between 91W and 100W, and from 02N to 11N between 113W and 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for an upcoming Gale Warning. The pressure gradient between a strong, broad surface ridge west of Baja California and a thermal trough over Baja California is generally moderate to fresh NW winds with 8 to 11 ft seas in large NW swell near Baja Norte, and moderate NW to N winds with 6 to 7 ft seas in moderate NW swell near Baja Sur. Gentle to moderate N winds and seas near 6 ft are present near the Revillagigedo Islands. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas at 2 to 4 ft exist at the northern Gulf of California, while light to gentle winds and 1 to 2 ft seas exist for the rest of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds along with 2 to 5 ft seas in mixed moderate swells prevail for the offshore waters of central and southern Mexico. For the forecast, strong ridge of high pressure to the west will cause fresh to strong S to SW gap winds in the northern and central Gulf of California this evening through early Mon morning. These winds will peak at near-gale to gale-force in the northern Gulf of California along with rough seas Sun night. In addition, NW winds at fresh to strong off Baja Norte, and at moderate to fresh off Baja Sur are anticipated later tonight through Mon morning. Rapidly building long-period NW swell is going to create rough to very rough seas off Baja Norte through Tue night, and off Baja Sur Sun through Tue. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds with 5 to 6 ft seas are evident off the Papagayo region to near 88W. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed moderate swell exist across the central America offshore waters. For the waters off Colombia and Ecuador, and near the Galapagos Islands, gentle to moderate S to SW winds and seas at 4 to 7 ft in moderate SW swell prevail. Refer to the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section for convection in the region. For the forecast, fresh NE to E gap winds off the Papagayo region will pulse to strong during the night-time hours through Tue night. Locally rough seas will accompany these winds. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through midweek next week. Scattered to numerous heavy showers and isolated thunderstorms will persist in the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia through Mon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad surface ridge stretches southeastward from a strong 1035 mb high located well west of northern California across 30N130W to southeast of the Revillagigedo Islands. This feature continues to dominate the wind pattern north of the ITCZ, with moderate to fresh N to NE trades north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Under a building NW swell, seas in this area range from 6 to 11 ft with the highest near 30N122W. For the remaining area north of the ITCZ, mainly gentle winds with 4 to 6 ft seas in mixed moderate swell exist. From Equator to the ITCZ west of 100W, and from 03S to the Equator between 93W and 120W, gentle to moderate E to SE winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft in mixed moderate swells are evident. Light to gentle winds with 4 to 5 ft in moderate SW swell prevail elsewhere south of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, the aforementioned surface ridge will stay near it current location through Sun, maintaining tight pressure gradient over the waters north of 27N between 120W and 130W. This will keep fresh to strong NW to N winds for this area through Mon morning. Associated long-period, large northerly swell will continue to raise seas across the waters west of Baja California Norte to near 130W, reaching 11 to 17 ft Sun and Sun night, and from 9 to 14 ft from Punta Eugenia to Cabo San Lazaro. A trough, with possible weak low pressure along it, should develop offshore southern California and extreme northern Baja California early next week, which will break down the described tight pressure gradient, thus allowing for the fresh to strong winds over the northeast part of the area to drop-off quite significantly. The swell will gradually decay going into the middle part of next week, with seas lowering to just below 8 ft.