Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Nov 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 04N91W. The ITCZ stretches from 04N91W to 05N110W and to 07N134W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 15N and west of 103W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure north of the area continues to support fresh to near gale-force northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, spreading downstream to 13N. Meanwhile, broad ridging extends southeastward across the Baja California waters to the Revillagigedo Islands, allowing for moderate or lighter winds in the rest of the Mexican offshore waters. Long- period NW swell is producing seas of 8-11 ft in the offshore waters of Baja California. Elsewhere, slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh northerly winds and rough seas around 8 ft will pulse to strong to locally near gale-force at night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the remainder of the week. Rough seas in NW swell in the Baja California waters will diminish through Thu. Looking ahead, fresh winds and rough seas approaching 12 ft are expected to reach the offshore waters of Baja California by early Fri, associated with a frontal system. Meanwhile, a larger NW swell arriving Sat will produce high seas to 20 ft. Rough seas will reach all the way to near 100W by early next week, while additional and reinforcing NW swell sets continue to arrive. The next Tehuantepec gap wind event may occur early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A broad subtropical ridge centered over the Gulf of America and the western Atlantic extends southward and is supporting moderate to locally strong easterly trade winds and seas of 4-6 ft across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Farther east, moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are found in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds will funnel across the Papagayo region and extend to 90W through this evening, then diminish for the end of the week into the weekend. Moderate to fresh winds may return to the Papagayo region by the end of the weekend into early next week. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through this morning, then again by the end of the weekend. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in merging SW and NW swell will prevail, except locally rough SSW of the Galapagos Islands through the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured a broad low pressure area near 06N138W and a surface trough is analyzed northward from this low. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are occurring south of 12N and west of 133W, with the strongest convection noted north of the low. The satellite-derived wind data also show strong to near gale-force winds associated with the strongest convection. The rest of the tropical eastern Pacific waters is under a broad subtropical ridge that extends from the western United States to the western waters. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics supports fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds and seas of 8-11 ft from 10N to 23N and west of 120W. Moderate to fresh SE winds and rough seas are found south of 03N and between 100W and 125W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and seas of 5-8 ft prevail. For the forecast, high pressure combined with troughing over the W-central waters will support moderate to locally strong easterly winds and rough seas across the trade waters through the rest of the week. A strong cold front will reach our NW border at 30N140W late this morning, bringing with it fresh to strong winds on either side of the front, and very large seas in NW swell north of 20N through the end of the week. Even larger reinforcing NW swell may arrive Fri afternoon to the NW waters, possibly reaching 25 ft. This set of swell with seas of 8 ft or greater will cover the waters N of 05N and W of 110W by late Sat night, then covering all of the waters W of 105W. Yet another set of large swell will arrive Sun. The mixed swell over the equatorial waters will persist for the next several days.