Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Apr 16 2026 Corrected forecast for Offshore Waters Within 250 nm of Mexico Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1545 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from the coast of Colombia at 07N78W to 06N94W to 05N116W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 06N133W and to beyond the area at 05N140W. A southern hemispheric ITCZ extends from 03S86W to 02S101W to 02S112W to 03S121W to 02S130W to 03S140W. Scattered moderate convection is within 180 nm south of the southern hemispheric ITCZ between 86W-90W and from 03S to the Equator between 86W-91W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO...Corrected A high pressure ridge extends from 30N129W to 21N115W and to 17N110W. The associated gradient is allowing for northwest winds at mostly moderate speeds to exist over the offshore waters of Baja California and for moderate to fresh winds to be over the offshore waters of Cabo San Lucas. Elsewhere, winds are generally northwest to north at moderate speeds. Overnight satellite altimeter data indicates seas of 4 to 6 ft in northwest swell offshore the Baja California peninsula and of the state of Jalisco. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in long-period south to southwest swell elsewhere offshore Mexico. In the Gulf of California, seas are 2 to 3 ft, except for slightly higher seas of 3 to 4 ft in the southern part and for higher seas of 4 to 6 ft in south to southwest swell at the entrance to the Gulf. For the forecast, rather quiet conditions will remain over the Mexican offshores today. Developing low pressure over the southwestern United States will bring fresh southwest winds to the northern Gulf of California tonight before diminishing on Fri. Elsewhere, large NW swell will impact the Pacific waters west of Baja California Norte tonight through Fri night. Looking ahead, high pressure building over the Gulf of America is expected to induce a fresh to strong Tehuantepec gap wind event Sun night and Mon. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds along with seas of 5 to 6 ft are in the Gulf of Papagayo region per overnight scatterometer satellite data and latest satellite altimeter data. Elsewhere, winds across the regional waters are mostly at gentle speeds along with seas of 4 to 7 ft in long-period south to southwest swell. Satellite imagery shows clusters of scattered moderate to isolated strong convection over the waters from 06S to 01N between 85W and 93W, including the waters near the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, high pressure over the western Caribbean will help to produce fresh northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region today. Convection occurring near the Galapagos Islands should last into Sat. Elsewhere, beginning tonight and into early next week, expect for rather tranquil conditions to remain over the Central American and equatorial waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1025 mb is analyzed north of the area at 33N137W, with a ridge extending to 27N125W, to 21N115W and to near 17N110W. High pressure covers the area north of about 16N and west of 115W. A pretty weak pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated to the ITCZ is allowing for generally moderate to locally fresh northeast trades over forecast waters. Seas over these waters are 5 to 7 ft in north swell merging with southeast swell. No additional deep convection is occurring away from the trough/ITCZ. For the forecast, little change is expected in the winds during the next several days. Large long-period northwest swell is expected to impact the waters north of 27N and east of 125W starting Thu night and through Fri night. Otherwise, little change in the seas are also expected through the weekend. Looking ahead, a cold front may reach the far northwest forecast waters on Sun. This front should translate eastward while gradually weakening. A set of large northwest to north swell will follow in behind the front.