Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jun 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is entering the Pacific, and extends along 88W northward into El Salvador. This wave is moving west at 10 kt. No significant convection is evident along the wave axis at this time. The axis of a tropical wave is near 108W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 13N to 15N between 106W and 108W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 124W, south of 21N, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. No significant deep convection is occurring with this system this morning. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 06N95W to 11N118W to 08N125W. The ITCZ extends from 08N125W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 05N to 09N between 90W and 100W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong gap winds continue to pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning, along with rough seas. This is due the pressure difference between high pressure over south-central Mexico and lowering pressure along the monsoon trough over the eastern Pacific. Currently, clusters of thunderstorms are active across the Tehuantepec area. Farther north, a recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh SW gap winds across the northern Gulf of California. This is associated with 1000 mb low pressure over the lower Colorado River Valley. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4 to 5 ft seas are noted elsewhere across Mexican offshore waters, with 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Lower pressure over the deep tropics will continue inducing fresh to strong N to NE gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through late Sat. Elsewhere, winds and seas across the Mexican offshore waters should be quiescent through early next week. Looking ahead, large NW swell may move into the waters off Baja California Norte starting Sun night. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong E to SE gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo and off the coast of Nicaragua. Concurrent altimeter satellite data showed seas of at least 8 ft downstream of this plume. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 7-9 ft in S swell over the equatorial waters and 5-6 ft in SW swell over the remainder of the offshore waters. For the forecast, the pattern will continue support fresh to occasionally strong gap winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Papagayo through early next week. This plume of strong winds and rough seas will reach as far west as the waters beyond 180 nm off Guatemala and El Salvador through Sun night. Farther south, large S swell moving into the equatorial waters will continue through early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1009 mb low is centered near 19N124W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh NE winds within 90 nm of the center in the northwest semicircle. Seas are estimated to be 8-9 ft there in a mix of swell. Broad ridging dominates the remainder of the area north of 15N. The moderate pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure over the monsoon trough/ITCZ is forcing moderate to fresh NE trades between 10N and the ridge. Elsewhere, winds across the open Pacific are moderate or weaker. Seas are 5-8 ft in mixed SW and N swell. For the forecast, the tropical wave near 108W is forecast to encounter more favorable conditions for development over the weekend across the central portion of the East Pacific basin. A tropical depression is likely to form by the early to middle part of next week while the wave moves westward to west-northwestward at 10 to 15 kt the waters well southwest of the Revillagigedo Islands. Outside of this system, little change in winds are expected for the next several days. A large SE swell should reach our southern border tonight and reach up to 01N with at least 8 ft seas for the next several days.