Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Nov 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant NW Swell Event: A series of NW swell sets will continue to impact much of the open waters for the next several days associated with the passage of several cold fronts. Currently, a decaying cold front extends from 30N115W to 24N128W. Ahead of the front, and extending as far south as the equator and W of 110W, rough seas of 8 to 12 ft, as observed on recent altimeter and buoy data, in decaying NW swell associated with a former front is ongoing. The period of this swell is 10 to 15 seconds. Elsewhere, N of 15N and behind the aforementioned front, a reinforcing and larger set of NW swell with 15 to 20 second period continues to spread across the northern waters with peak seas around 22 to 24 ft. The front is forecast to reach Punta Eugenia later this morning while weakening, with rough seas of 12 to 20 ft spreading as far south as 11N, and rough seas of 8 to 11 ft farther south. These high energy waves will have a period of 14 to 20 seconds. These seas will keep spreading SE as yet another set with seas of 12 ft or greater continues to enter the NW open waters this morning, which is forecast to spread across the majority of the waters into Tue. Please read the latest NHC High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/HSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09.5N84.5W to a 1012 MB low pressure near 05N92.5W to 09N129.5W. The ITCZ extends from 09N129.5W to 06.5N139.5W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 00N to 05N between 90W and 102W, and from 11N to 15N between 110W and 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A decaying cold front extends over the northern waters from 30N115W to 24N128W, and a significant NW swell event is producing very rough seas offshore of the Baja California peninsula. Widespread seas of 12 to 17 ft are noted offshore of Baja, and seas of 8 to 11 ft extend offshore of southwestern Mexico to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Mainly moderate N winds are occurring in this region. Offshore of southern Mexico, moderate seas of 4 to 7 ft are noted. Elsewhere in the Gulf of California, mainly gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds are slated to develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Mon afternoon before quickly strengthening to gale force by early Tue. Gale force winds are then expected to pulse through much of this week, and very rough seas of 12 to 14 ft will occur in tandem with these winds. Elsewhere, very rough seas of 12 to 20 ft in NW swell will expand southeastward offshore of Baja and near the Revillagigedo Islands through today, and rough seas of 8 to 11 ft are expected to extend offshore of southwestern Mexico over the next several days. Looking ahead, a cold front is slated to produce fresh to locally strong N to NW winds and renew very rough seas offshore of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro Mon through midweek. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE to E gap winds and 4 to 5 ft seas are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo this morning. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell prevail over the regional waters. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo into early Mon, with winds pulsing to strong speeds Mon through much of this week. Winds may reach near-gale force at times, and rough seas are expected to accompany these winds. Elsewhere, moderate to occasionally fresh N winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama this week. Looking ahead, rough seas in N swell may develop well offshore of Guatemala by Wed, prompted by gale-force winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, a set of NW swell may build seas to 8 ft or greater SSW of the Galapagos Islands on Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section above for details on a series of significant NW swell sets, which will impact much of the open waters this week. Away from the significant swell impacting much of the open waters, moderate to fresh NE winds are occurring south of the decaying cold front to north of the ITCZ. Farther north, a new cold front over the northwest waters extends from 30N133W to 27N140W, and moderate to fresh N to NE winds are noted north of this front. A significant N to NW swell is occurring with this front, and seas in excess of 20 ft are noted in this region. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in mixed NW and SW swell prevail over the rest of the waters. For the forecast, a series of NW swell sets will continue to impact much of the open waters for the next several days associated with the passage of several cold fronts. A cold front is forecast to reach Punta Eugenia later this morning while weakening, with rough seas of 12 to 20 ft spreading as far south as 11N, and rough seas of 8 to 11 ft farther south. These high energy waves will have a period of 14 to 20 seconds. These seas will keep spreading SE as yet another set with seas of 12 ft or greater continues to enter the NW open waters this morning, which is forecast to spread across the majority of the waters into Tue. In addition, fresh to strong N to NE winds are expected behind the passage of this new cold front, affecting generally N of 10N and W of 120W late today through the middle of this week.