Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Oct 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Simon is centered near 20.1N 107.6W at 14/0300 UTC, moving west at 2 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt. Peak seas are near 20 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 30 nm of the center. Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is elsewhere from 18N to 21N between 106W and 109W. Simon remains a small hurricane, but has started to re intensify. Simon is located in an area of weak steering currents and is forecast to drift southwestward over the next couple of days. Simon could be near Las Islas Marias on Thursday, where a Hurricane Watch remains in effect. Interests in west- central Mexico and Baja California Sur should continue to closely monitor the latest updates. Additional watches or warnings could be required over the next day or two. Simon is expected to produce rainfall totals of 1 to 2 inches with isolated maximum amounts of 3 inches over portions of the states of Baja California Sur, Nayarit, and Sinaloa. Large swells generated by Simon will likely affect portions of the coast of west- central Mexico and Baja California Sur over the next several days. These swells are likely to cause large and powerful surf and life- threatening rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Simon NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Trudy is centered near 11.2N 97.0W at 14/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are estimated at 13 ft across the N semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is occurring from 09N to 5N between 92W and 100W. The initial motion of Trudy is northwestward, and a general northwestward to west-northwestward motion is forecast through 72 hr. Trudy is forecast to reach hurricane intensity within the next 24 hours, and is forecast to be a major hurricane as it approaches the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico late this week and into the weekend. There is an increasing risk of wind, rain, and storm surge impacts, and watches could be required for a portion of these areas on Wednesday. Swells generated by Trudy will affect portions of the coast of southwestern Mexico the end of the week into the weekend, and southern Baja California later this weekend. These swells are likely to cause large and powerful surf and life- threatening rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Trudy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N89W, then resumes from near 08N100W to 05N109W. The ITCZ extends from 05N109W to 04N125W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 08N E of 86W, and from 00N to 06N between 100W and 131W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Simon and Tropical Storm Trudy. Aside from conditions associated with Simon and Trudy, mainly moderate to fresh winds prevail across the waters west of Baja California, where seas are in the 6 to 8 ft range in merging Sw and NW swell. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas, are over the Gulf of California. Fresh winds extend across the Gulf of Tehuantepec westward to the northern periphery of Trudy. For the forecast, Hurricane Simon is near 20.1N 107.6W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west at 2 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 95 kt with gusts to 115 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 965 mb. Simon will move to 20.1N 107.8W Wed morning, 19.6N 108.2W Wed evening, 18.9N 108.5W Thu morning, 19.7N 108.1W Thu evening, 21.0N 108.0W Fri morning, and weaken to a tropical storm near 22.3N 108.8W Fri evening. Simon will change little in intensity as it moves to near 24.1N 109.7W late Sat. Tropical Storm Trudy is near 11.2N 97.0W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving northwest at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 40 kt with gusts to 45 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Trudy will move to 11.8N 98.6W Wed morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 12.6N 100.0W Wed evening, 13.5N 100.9W Thu morning, 14.3N 101.5W Thu evening, 15.2N 101.9W Fri morning, and 16.3N 102.5W Fri evening. Trudy will change little in intensity as it moves to near 19.0N 104.4W late Sat. Elsewhere rough seas in NW swell west of Baja California will gradually diminish through early Wed. A Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind event is expected late this week through the upcoming weekend as high pressure builds behind a cold front moving across the waters north of the area. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong winds and rough seas over the outer periphery of Trudy dominate the outer offshore waters to the southwest of Guatemala. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms also prevail across these outer waters S of 14.5N and W of 90W. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas in SW swell prevail over the remainder of the offshore waters. Scattered moderate convection continues across and S of the waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia E of 85W. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds and rough seas occurring S of 13N, and associated with Tropical Storm Trudy well offshore of Guatemala, will diminish through Wed as Trudy moves further from the area. Otherwise, a weak pressure gradient will support moderate or lighter winds, and moderate seas dominated by SW swell across much of the forecast waters through the end of the week. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to remain active across the waters E of 85W tonight. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and rough seas cover the waters N of 18N and west of 115W. Light to gentle winds and moderate to rough seas in merging NW and SW swell generally prevail S of 18N W of 100W, except for moderate winds near the equator. For the forecast, large SW swell will affect the waters S of the Equator and west of 105W over the next couple of days, followed by another pulse of large S-SW swell arriving into the waters W of 100W Wed night.