Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jan 1 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Gale-force winds of 35 to 40 kt and seas of 12 to 13 ft will prevail into Thu morning as high pressure settles into eastern Mexico and force gap winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec. As the high weakens and slides east Thu into Fri, winds will gradually diminish. Marine interests transiting across or near the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed should take the necessary action to avoid these hazardous marine conditions. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N84W to 05N94W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N94W to 10N126W to beyond 06N140W. Convection N of the ITCZ roughly along 110W is primarily associated with middle-level features and is described in sections below. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please refer to the Special Features section for details. A mid-level trough and deep tropical moisture is inducing scattered moderate to isolated convection over the outer offshore waters from Jalisco northward to Nayarit, mainly E of 111W. Low pressure offshore California is drawing in fresh SE winds that are impacting waters offshore Baja California Norte. Fresh NW winds are also offshore Cabo Corrientes. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker, and seas are moderate. In the Gulf of California, light winds and slight seas prevail. For the forecast, Fresh SE winds across the Baja California offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia will diminish tonight as a low pressure N of the offshores moves northward, further way from the region. Otherwise, long period NW swell may bring rough seas to waters offshore Baja California Sat night through early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure building N of the region is supporting strong northeast to east winds in the Papagayo region. Seas of 5 to 8 ft are within these winds. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail, except for moderate to fresh N winds in the Gulf of Panama. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will continue to support strong NE to E winds in the Gulf of Papagayo with moderate to rough seas into Fri. Winds will pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Panama tonight and Thu night. Rough seas generated by gales in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Guatemala and El Salvador tonight. Mainly gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere into the start of next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1012 mb low pressure is centered near 23N124W, with a surface trough bisecting the low from 19N129W to 27N122W. Another surface trough has formed N of the ITCZ roughly along 109W, extending northward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Scattered moderate convection is noted either side of this trough, across a broad region from 06N to 25N between 104W and 115W. The impacts of gap winds are leading to fresh NE to E winds across a zone from 07N and 11N E of 107W. Fresh E to SE winds are also ongoing S of the ITCZ between 120W and 135W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Rough seas are ongoing where the fresh gap- associated winds are, and decaying northerly swell is causing 6 to 8 ft seas from 15N to 25N, W of 135W. Elsewhere, generally moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, as the low pressure moves northward and weakens tonight, convection will subside. Gap winds will also diminish allowing winds and seas to lessen into Thu. A cold front is forecast to reach the far NW tonight and move eastward across the waters north of 20N through Thu. The cold front will reach from 30N133W to 24N139W by Thu night. Fresh to strong winds are expected on both sides of the front through Fri. Significant NW swell will follow the front, bringing rough to very roughly seas. By the end of the weekend, seas 8 ft or great should encompass waters N of 10N and W of 120W.