Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Jul 13 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized thunderstorms and gusty winds a couple of hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico as described with the monsoon trough below. Currently, winds are 20 to 25 kt with this system, along with seas of to 8 ft. Environmental conditions appear favorable for continued gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form in the next 2 or 3 days while the system moves generally west- northwestward, well off the coast of Mexico. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and a high chance through 7 days. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 77W, and extends along the western coast of Colombia from 04N northward to the Caribbean Sea, relocated from an earlier position near 73W. Any nearby convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section. The axis of a tropical wave is near 98W, from 03N northward over portions of southern and SW Mexico, moving slowly westward around 5 kt. Any nearby convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section. The axis of a tropical wave is along 132W from 05N to 19N, moving westward at around 10 kt. A 1007 mb low pressure is analyzed along the wave axis near 13N132W. Any nearby convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 09N91W. The ITCZ extends from 09N91W to 09N97W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 08N99W to 11N121W. Another monsoon trough segment extends from 12N125W to low pressure, 1007 mb, near 13N132W to 09N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 77W and 83W, from 09N to 16N between 88W and 100W, from 03N to 10N between 100W and 113W, from 14N to 18N between 121W and 124W, from 10N to 18N between 126W and 132W, and from 06N to 12N between 132W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 84W and 93W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting gentle to moderate winds with moderate seas in mixed swell. Similar wind speeds are also noted in the Gulf of California where slight seas prevail, except near the entrance to the Gulf where seas are in the 3 to 4 ft range. Moderate northerly winds are blowing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec with moderate seas. An area of fresh to strong winds extends from the coast of Oaxaca to about 11N between 94W and 102W along with moderate to locally rough seas. Over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, winds are gentle to moderate from the NW and seas are generally moderate, primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, a ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through early Thu, allowing for gentle to moderate NW to N winds to continue along with moderate seas in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail during this period. Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the week, strongest during the late night and early morning hours, with locally rough seas at times. Otherwise, a broad area of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong easterly winds are in the Papagayo region with moderate to fresh easterly winds elsewhere from 10N to 13N. Winds are light to gentle across the remainder of the waters. Moderate seas dominate the waters. Areas of convection associated with two tropical waves and the monsoon trough are described above with locally higher winds and seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region mainly at night through at least Fri night along with moderate to locally rough seas. Fresh to locally strong winds and rough seas are forecast to impact the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala tonight and Mon as a broad area of low pressure persists several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands where slight seas are expected. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge prevails across the waters N of 20N W of 110W. Under the influence of the ridge, mainly moderate or weaker winds are observed with moderate seas in mixed swell. South of 20N, there are two tropical waves and a surface trough. The surface trough runs from 20N118W to 09N124W. Any associated convection is described above. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere, locally fresh south of the ITCZ between 95W and 110W, along with moderate seas. For the forecast: The National Hurricane Center (NHC) is monitoring several areas with the potential for tropical cyclone development across the eastern and central Pacific. Three of those disturbances are located in the eastern Pacific region. One is a broad area of low pressure located several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico that continues to produce a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. The second one is an area of low pressure located well west- southwest of the Baja California Peninsula that continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms, primarily east of its center. This system is expected to move west- northwestward into less favorable environmental conditions during the next couple of days, and its development chances appear to be decreasing. Currently, the Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a low chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours, and also through 7 days. Also, a area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of the week several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the week or next weekend while it moves generally west- northwestward well offshore of Mexico. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.