Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Aug 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 111W from 02N to 18N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 129W from 02N to 17N, moving westward at 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 03N82W to 07N90W. The ITCZ extends from 07N90W to 09N109W. The monsoon trough resumes from 09N109W to 13N129W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 02N to 18N between 103W and 113W, and from 06N to 15N between 121W and 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong gap winds, and rough seas, prevail across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail over the discussion waters. Moderate seas are over the open waters off Mexico with slight seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Tue morning. The pressure gradient between the ridge W of the area and lower pressures over northern Mexico will support moderate to locally fresh southerly winds across the northern Gulf of California by Wed. Elsewhere, a moderate pressure gradient will promote mostly gentle to moderate winds across the remainder offshore waters of Mexico along with moderate seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong E gap winds and rough seas persist across the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and rough seas will pulse across the Papagayo region through Tue night. The gap wind event will produce a fetch of moderate to locally fresh easterlies with seas of 6 to 8 ft across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador through late today. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected elsewhere through Fri night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad ridging dominates the waters north of 20N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and low pressures within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the monsoon trough to near 20N and west of 125W. Rough seas cover these waters. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh trade winds and moderate to rough seas are forecast to persist W of 125W likely through Tue. A large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms is located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development, and a tropical depression could form during the next few days while the system moves slowly west- northwestward to northwestward across the western portion of the East Pacific. Winds and seas are forecast to increase across the west-central portion of the forecast region by the middle part of the week as this system develops.