Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Apr 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from 09N79W to 13N90W to 12N95W. The ITCZ extends from 12N95W to 08N110W to 11N125W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is active within 60 nm of the ITCZ between 105W and 130W. A second ITCZ south of the area, extending from 03.4S110W to 02S125W and beyond. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Ridging off Baja California combined with troughing over northwest Mexico supports moderate to fresh winds off the peninsula, with moderate winds in the central Gulf of California. Winds are mainly gentle elsewhere. Combined seas are 5-7 ft off Baja California, 3-5 ft off southwest and southern Mexico, and 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, ridging will build over the area through mid week, supporting moderate to fresh northwest winds over the Baja California waters through mid week. Elsewhere, mostly light to gentle west to northwest winds are expected through the week. Moderate to fresh winds may develop off Baja California Sur and in the central and southern Gulf of California Thu and Thu night as the pressure gradient tightens slightly between high pressure off Baja California and lower pressure farther east over northern Mexico. Looking ahead, a northerly gap wind event is possible by Sat night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle variable winds and 3-6 ft combined seas prevail north of the Equator. Gentle to moderate SE winds prevail south of the Equator, within 5-7 ft seas in S to SW swell. For the forecast, a light gradient will maintain rather tranquil conditions over the Central American and Colombian waters through the week while moderate to fresh southeast winds and moderate long-period south to southwest swell remain offshore Ecuador. Seas off Ecuador will subside slightly by the end of the week into the weekend. Winds will pulse to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama overnight Tue through Thu. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The ridge north of the ITCZ is disrupted by a trough extending from 27N125W to 20N129W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong NE winds within 60 nm to the west of the trough, where seas are estimated to be near 8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh NE winds are found elsewhere north of the ITCZ to 20N west of 120W. Mainly light to gentle winds are elsewhere across the open waters. Seas are 6-8 ft in mixed SE and NW swell south of the Equator, and 4-7 ft across the remainder of the waters. For the forecast, the aforementioned trough will persist through mid week, supporting moderate to fresh NE winds and moderate to occasionally rough seas north of 10N and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds and 4-6 ft will persist elsewhere. The trough will dissipate through Thu, allowing the subtropical ridge to build along 25N. This pattern will support moderate to fresh and 5-7 ft seas from 10N to 20N west of 120W this weekend, with little change elsewhere.