Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Oct 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Vance is centered near 9.7N 101.0W at 22/1500 UTC, moving northwest at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Seas are peaking near 18 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is from 05N to 13N between 94W and 104W. Vance is forecast to move on a northwest or north- northwest track during the next several days. The environment appears generally conducive for steady-to-rapid intensification during the next couple of days. The current forecast has Vance reaching hurricane intensity tonight, and reaching category 3 strength late Friday night into Saturday before starting a weakening trend Sat night. Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office for details. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest T.S. Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure over Mexico and TS Vance is supporting near-gale force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Winds will pulse to gale force tonight across the Tehuantepec region as Vance further intensifies. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 10N91W. It resumes west of T.S. Vance near 07N104W to 04N113W. The ITCZ extends from 04N113W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 08N between 82W and 87W, and from 00N to 07N between 120W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Vance and a Gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and T.S. Vance, light to gentle breezes and moderate seas prevail, except for slight seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Vance will strengthen to a hurricane near 10.1N 101.5W this evening, move to 10.7N 102.1W Fri morning, 11.5N 102.7W Fri evening, 12.3N 103.2W Sat morning, 13.4N 103.6W Sat evening, and 14.4N 103.9W Sun morning. Vance will change little in intensity as it moves to near 16.0N 104.4W early Mon. The pressure gradient between high pressure over Mexico and TS Vance is supporting near-gale force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Winds will pulse to gale force tonight across the Tehuantepec region as Vance further intensifies. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail across the discussion waters. For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo region. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on T.S. Vance. Elsewhere, a weakening cold front extends from Baja California Norte to 16N136W. Moderate to fresh NW winds and rough seas with maximum wave heights to 10 ft follow the front. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in a mix of swell are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the front will dissipate today, with winds and seas decreasing as they spread southward over the waters north of 15N and west of 125W. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere. T.S. Vance will strengthen to a hurricane near 10.1N 101.5W this evening, move to 10.7N 102.1W Fri morning, 11.5N 102.7W Fri evening, 12.3N 103.2W Sat morning, 13.4N 103.6W Sat evening, and 14.4N 103.9W Sun morning. Vance will change little in intensity as it moves to near 16.0N 104.4W early Mon.