Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Mar 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 09N84W to 04N95W to 01N104W. The ITCZ stretches from 02N120W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 04N to 10N W of 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure of 1038 mb is centered well to the NW of the forecast area near 37N140W. A broad ridge extends southeastward from the high to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a meandering surface trough over the Gulf of California/NW Mexico is producing gentle to moderate NW to N winds offshore the Baja California waters. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these winds, except for higher seas of 7 to 10 ft in NW swell over the outer offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro. Moderate to fresh NW winds are over the central Gulf of California as noted in the latest scatterometer pass. The same pass indicated gentle to moderate winds elsewhere over the Gulf, including the entrance to the Gulf. Slight to moderate seas prevail. Elsewhere over the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, generally light winds and moderate seas in S to SW swell are present. For the forecast, the aforementioned ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through this morning generally supporting gentle o moderate NW to N winds. A broad area of low pressure is expected to form just offshore Baja California Norte later today, then shift slowly eastward into early next week while dissipating. The tightening pressure gradient between the low center and the ridge to the W will promote fresh to locally strong W to NW winds and building seas to around 8 ft across the outer forecast waters N of Punta Eugenia on Sun. Gentle winds along with moderate seas in SW swell are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the forecast period. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are in the Gulf of Papagayo region while gentle to moderate N winds and seas of 3 to 4 ft are in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in long-period S to SW swell elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong winds are expected in the Papagayo region nightly and into the mornings through Tue as high pressure remains N of the region. Gentle to locally moderate N winds are forecast in the Gulf of Panama into next week. Mainly light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through early next week. Looking ahead, significant cross-equatorial SW swell is expected to reach the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands early next week, building seas to around 8 ft, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure of 1038 mb is centered well to the NW of the region near 37N140W. Associated broad ridging covers the waters N of about 15N and W of 112W. The related pressure gradient is sustaining fresh to strong N to NE winds W of a line from 30N124W to 20N133W to 10N140W. Seas are 8 to 11 ft with these winds. Elsewhere, winds are of moderate or weaker speeds. Seas across the remainder of the open waters are 4 to 6 ft in mixed swell, except for higher seas of 6 to 9 ft in NE swell elsewhere W of a line from 30N118W to 26N118W to 18N130W to 10N140W. For the forecast, the aforementioned strong high pressure will continue to dominate the majority of the western and central waters N of 15N and W of 112W through the weekend while it weakens some as a cold front approaches from the NW. The cold front is expected to stay N of 30N during this time. Trades over the western half of the area will weaken to mostly fresh speeds also during this time, and the NE swell will slowly decay allowing for the seas there to subside to 8 ft by early Sun evening.