Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Feb 28 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough is analyzed from a 1008 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 03S85W to 05S96W. The ITCZ is south of the Equator and runs from 05S96W to beyond 05S120W. Scattered moderate convection is associated with these features. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting gentle to locally moderate NW winds with moderate seas. Winds are mainly light elsewhere, including the Gulf of California, and the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas are 3 to 5 ft in the offshore waters and 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the ridge will continue to dominate the forecast waters offshore of Baja California into early next week. Winds will increase to fresh speeds N of Cabo San Lazaro starting Sun night as high pressure builds toward the region and the pressure gradient tightens. Fresh to strong gap winds are expected to pulse nightly in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the period. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE winds are blowing across the Papagayo region with seas of 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, winds are gentle or weaker with slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected in the Papagayo area through Wed night as high pressure strengthens N of area. Winds will increase to 30 kt Sun night into Mon with seas building to 8 to 9 ft downwind of the Papagayo region to near 90W. At the same time, fresh to locally strong N winds and moderate seas are forecast in the Gulf of Panama and just S of the Azuero Peninsula with N winds from the Caribbean funneling into the Gulf of Panama. These marine conditions are forecast to persist mainly at night through Wed night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A stationary front is over the NE corner of the forecast region and extends from 30N130W to 21N140W. Seas of 8 to 9 ft follow the front. Ridging covers the forecast waters N of 15N W of 115W. Moderate to locally fresh trades are present along the southern periphery of the ridge with moderate seas. For the forecast, the front will gradually dissipate into tonight, and seas associated with the boundary will subside below 8 ft. High pressure will build eastward in the wake of the front through early next week, causing northeast to east winds to gradually increase through much of the basin.