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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jul 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Six-E: centered near 12.1N 110.6W at 19/0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1007 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Peak seas are currently around 11 ft or just less than 3.5 m. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted between 90 nm and 300 nm in the north quadrant, and within 330 nm in the SW semicircle of the depression. The depression is moving toward the west-northwest and this general motion is expected to continue for the next two to three days. Steady to rapid strengthening is forecast during the next few days. The depression is forecast to become a tropical storm later today and become a hurricane by Mon night or Tue. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Six-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Tropical Storm Elida: centered near 21.4N 125.2W at 19/0900 UTC, moving north-northwest at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently around 23 ft or 7 m. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the center of Elida. Elida is moving toward the north- northwest. A gradual increase in forward speed is expected over the next couple of days as the system turns northward. Steady weakening is expected during the next couple of days as Elida moves over progressively cooler waters. Elida is forecast to become a remnant low by Mon night and dissipate by late Wed. Swells generated by Elida will affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California through early next week. These swells will likely result in life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Elida NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 1005 mb low pressure over northern Colombia near 10N75.5W to 10N85W to 08N91W to 10N107W, then resumes SSW of Elida from 14N124W to 08N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 00N to 11N between 77W and 91W, and within 270 nm SSE of the monsoon trough west of 124W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 17.5N between 94W and 101W, from 05N to 13N between 101W and 105W, and from 08.5N to 10.5N between 137W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Six-E, centered about 647 nautical miles south of the southern tip of Baja California, and on Tropical Storm Elida, centered about 856 nautical miles west of the southern tip of Baja California. Fresh to strong N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as confirmed by recent ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C scatterometer passes. Otherwise, rather broad high pressure is over the offshore waters, with moderate or weaker winds. Outer associated rough seas from Elida are near the far outer offshore waters boundary of Baja California and are finally pulling away. Moderate seas dominate elsewhere, with rough seas associated with Tropical Depression Six-E just beyond the outer offshore waters of southwestern Mexico. Seas are slight in the Gulf of California, while winds are moderate to locally fresh in the northern portion. Very active convection is present near the monsoon trough across much of the offshore waters south of 14N, as well as near the coast of Oaxaca and Guerrero with locally higher winds and seas possible near any thunderstorms. For the forecast, seas generated by Elida will finally subside to less than 8 ft by this afternoon. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Six-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 12.5N 112.3W this afternoon, move to 13.2N 114.4W Mon morning, 14.4N 116.2W Mon afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.5N 117.8W Tue morning, 16.3N 119.3W Tue afternoon, and 16.8N 120.6W Wed morning. Six-E will change little in intensity as it moves to 17.3N 124.2W early Thu. Associated increasing winds and building seas are forecast to impact portions of the waters well offshore southwest Mexico to the Revillagigedo Islands into the early part of the week. Fresh to strong northerly winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the next several days, with locally rough seas at times. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail, except for locally fresh winds in the northern Gulf at times. Winds may freshen nearshore Baja California Norte midweek as the gradient temporarily tightens there. Looking ahead, low pressure may develop well south of Mexico during the middle to latter part of next week and increasing winds and seas may impact portions of the outer offshore waters of southern and southwestern Mexico by the end of next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east winds continue across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 09N92W. Moderate to fresh NE winds are near the Gulf of Fonseca. Seas are 6 to 9 ft downstream of Papagayo. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, primarily in south to southwest swell, dominate the remainder of the offshore waters, except slight seas in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and near shore western Colombia. Very active convection is present near the monsoon trough across much of the offshore waters, with locally higher winds and seas possible near thunderstorms. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas will persist across the Papagayo region through early next week, with moderate to fresh NE winds pulsing near the Gulf of Fonseca. Gentle to moderate N winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama with slight to moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected elsewhere, except in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and nearshore western Colombia where slight seas are forecast. Looking ahead, low pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico during the middle to latter part of the upcoming week, and increasing winds and seas may impact portions of the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Depression Six-E, centered about 647 nautical miles south of the southern tip of Baja California, and on Tropical Storm Elida, centered about 856 nautical miles west of the southern tip of Baja California. Both of the above systems dominate the open waters, as well as another area of disturbed with and associated fresh to strong winds and locally rough seas near 08N97W. Otherwise, broad ridging prevails both west and east of Elida. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the remainder of the open waters along with moderate seas, except moderate to locally fresh in the south-central waters south of 04N between 105W and 125W, along with 7 to 9 ft seas there. Very active convection is present near the monsoon trough, concentrated near all three significant features, with locally higher winds and seas possible. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Elida Elida will move to 22.7N 126.0W this afternoon, 24.8N 126.9W Mon morning, 27.5N 127.5W Mon afternoon, weaken to a remnant low just north of the discussion waters near 30.2N 127.7W Tue morning, 32.9N 127.9W Tue afternoon, and 35.6N 127.9W Wed morning. Elida will dissipate early Thu. Meanwhile, Tropical Depression Six-E will strengthen to a tropical storm near 12.5N 112.3W this afternoon, move to 13.2N 114.4W Mon morning, 14.4N 116.2W Mon afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 15.5N 117.8W Tue morning, 16.3N 119.3W Tue afternoon, and 16.8N 120.6W Wed morning. Six-E will change little in intensity as it moves to 17.3N 124.2W early Thu. Associated increasing winds and building seas are forecast to impact portions of the waters well offshore southwest Mexico to the Revillagigedo Islands into the early part of the week. Moderate to fresh winds and locally rough seas over the south-central waters will gradually spread northward in the wake of Elida and the wake of Six-E into the early part of the week. Little change in marine conditions is expected across the remainder of the open waters. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico during the middle to latter part of the upcoming week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the eastern Pacific.