Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Aug 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Western East Pacific (EP99): Recent satellite-derived wind data indicates that a well-defined low pressure system has formed in association with an area of showers and thunderstorms located well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula. Any significant increase in the organization of the showers and thunderstorms would result in the formation of a tropical depression later today or on Wednesday. The system is forecast to move northwestward at 5 to 10 mph over the next few days and encounter cooler waters late this week. There is a high chance for tropical cyclone formation in the next 24 hours. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W north of 06N through Central America into the western Caribbean, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 116W from 02N to 18N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N84W to 06N102W to low pres near 15N137.5W to beyond 13N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is from 03N to 09N between 87W and 109W, from 04N to 17N between 112W and 120W, from 12N to 19N between 126W and 134W, and from 05N to 17N between 134W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to near- gale force winds, and rough seas, prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate winds are found elsewhere. Moderate seas are elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, with slight to moderate seas over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the middle of the week. Winds will then briefly diminish through the end of the week before strengthening again this weekend. The pressure gradient between high pressure W of the area and lower pressures over northern Mexico will support moderate to locally fresh southerly winds across the northern Gulf of California Thu. A moderate pressure gradient will promote mostly gentle to moderate winds across the remainder offshore waters of Mexico along with moderate seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong E gap winds, and moderate to locally rough seas, persist across and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E gap winds and occasionally rough seas will pulse across the Papagayo region. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Southerly swell will bring rough seas to these waters Sun. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected elsewhere. The Telica volcano in Nicaragua, located near 12.6N 86.8W, is producing a plume of volcanic ash that reaches offshore to near 12N88W. Mariners should exercise caution over these waters. In the event mariners encounter volcanic ash, they are encouraged to report the observation to the National Hurricane Center by calling 305-229-4425. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad ridging dominates the waters north of 20N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and low pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting a large swath of fresh to strong winds N of the monsoon trough to near 20N and west of 125W. Fresh to strong winds are also noted south of the monsoon trough and west of 135W. Rough seas cover these waters. Convergence with the broad area of fresh to strong winds is generating a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, winds and seas are forecast to increase across the west- central portion of the forecast region by the middle part of the week as a potential tropical cyclone develops, as discussed in the SPECIAL FEATURES section above.