Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Nov 12 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0255 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 04N95W. The ITCZ stretches from 04N95W to 06N115W and to 10N135W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 10N and between 102W and 125W. Similar convection noted south of 14N and west of 127W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 4-7 ft are found in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region due to high pressure over the northern Gulf of America. A weak pressure gradient is present in the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. Decaying NW swell is producing seas of 5-8 ft across much of the area, except for slight seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh northerly winds and rough seas around 8 ft will pulse to strong at night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri night. The next Tehuantepec gap wind event may occur early next week, with winds at least to near gale-force by Mon night. Decaying rough seas in NW swell in the Baja California waters will diminish through tonight. Fresh to locally strong winds and a new batch of rough seas approaching 12 ft are expected to reach the offshore waters of Baja California by early Fri, associated with a frontal system. Fresh to locally strong winds may also briefly impact the northern Gulf of California Fri. Meanwhile, a larger NW swell arriving Sat will produce high seas to 20 ft. Rough seas will reach all the way to past 100W by early next week, while additional and reinforcing NW swell sets continue to arrive. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A 1020 mb high pressure system near Bermuda extends westward into the Gulf of America and southward into the Caribbean Sea. Moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent, except locally rough seas SW of the Galapagos Islands in merging long period SW and NW swells. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE winds will funnel across the Papagayo region and extend to 90W through Thu. Moderate to fresh winds may return to the Papagayo region by the end of the weekend into early next week, possibly reaching strong speeds by late Mon night. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in merging SW and NW swell will prevail, except locally rough SSW of the Galapagos Islands through the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A cold front is moving quickly southeastward across the far NW waters, extending from 30N135W to 26N140W. Fresh to strong W-NW winds and rough to very rough seas are occurring behind the frontal boundary. A buoy near 32N138W recently reported seas to 20 ft. In the western trade waters, a 1007 mb low pres is located near 06N140W, producing a large area of showers and isolated thunderstorms. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge that combined with the aforementioned low pressure, sustain moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and rough seas from 12N to 23N and west of 120W. Moderate to fresh cyclonic and rough seas are found west of 133W and from 02N to 12N. In the southern waters, moderate to fresh SE winds and rough seas are found south of 02N. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or lighter and a decaying NW swell is found across much of the remainder of the basin, supporting seas of 6-8 ft. For the forecast, a strong cold front will move across the northern waters tonight into Thu, bringing with it fresh to strong winds on either side of the front, and very large seas in NW swell north of 20N through the end of the week. Even larger reinforcing NW swell may arrive Fri afternoon to the NW waters, possibly reaching 24 ft along 30N. This set of swell with seas of 8 ft or greater will cover the waters N of 05N and W of 110W by late Sat night, then covering all of the waters W of 105W. Yet another set of large swell will arrive Sun, with seas of 8 ft or greater across the entire waters W of 105W by late Sun night. Meanwhile, the mixed swell over the equatorial waters will also persist and mix with the NW swells for the next several days. Looking ahead, a cold front may move into the NW waters by the end of the weekend into early next week bringing a large area of fresh to strong winds behind it as high pressure builds in.