Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Nov 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 1011 mb low pressure along the coast of NW Colombia at 10.5N75W to across portions of Panama and Costa Rica to near the Gulf of Papagayo at 10.5N86W to 1011 mb low pressure at 10N95W to 06N96W. The ITCZ extends from 06N96W to 04N110W to 04.5N120W to 08N130W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 10N between 103W and 119W, and from 00N to 10N between 119W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03.4S to 02.5N between 79W and 83W. A surface trough is located W of the ITCZ, analyzed from 14N123W to 1012 mb low pressure at 13N125W to 05.5N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 90-180 nm of the trough and low. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The tight pressure gradient between a 1022 mb high pressure system over the southern United States and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustains fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 5-7 ft across the Gulf of Tehuantepec basin. Meanwhile, broad ridging extends southeastward across the Baja California waters to the Revillagigedo Islands, mainly light to gentle winds across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, except moderate NW winds in the NW Gulf of California. Long-period NW swell is producing seas of 7-10 ft in the offshore waters of Baja California W and N of Cabo San Lazaro, with the highest seas occurring W of Guadalupe island. Elsewhere, slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh northerly winds and rough seas around 8 ft will pulse to strong to locally near gale-force at night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the remainder of the week. Rough seas in NW swell will continue across the Baja offshore waters, then begin to diminish tonight through Thu. Looking ahead, fresh winds and rough seas approaching 12 ft are expected to reach the offshore waters of Baja California by early Fri through the day, associated with a frontal system. Yet a larger NW swell arriving Sat will produce very rough seas to 19 ft. Rough seas will reach all the way to near 100W by early next week, while additional and reinforcing NW swell sets continue to arrive. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure centered north of the the Caribbean supports moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 4-6 ft in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate northerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are occurring in the Gulf of Panama to near the Azuero Peninsula. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds will funnel across the Papagayo region and extend to 90W through Wed night, then diminish for the end of the week into the weekend. Moderate to fresh winds may return to the Papagayo region by the end of the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse in the western Gulf of Panama through Wed morning, then again by the end of the weekend. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in merging SW and NW swell will prevail, except locally rough SSW of the Galapagos Islands through the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad high pressure covers the northern waters. A surface trough is to the south analyzed from trough from 14N123W to 1012 mb low pressure at 13N125W to 05.5N140W. Nearby convection is active as described with the monsoon trough/ITCZ above. The pressure gradient between the ridging and trough supports moderate to fresh winds from 11N to 21N to the NW of the trough. Moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the open waters, locally fresh S of the Equator. Rough NW swell with heights of 8-11 ft covers the majority of the waters N of 09N and W of 115W as measured by recent altimeter data. Merging SW and NW swell supports rough seas of 7-10 ft S of 08N between 100W and 128W. Moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, high pressure combined with troughing over the W-central waters will support moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough seas across the trade waters during the next few days. New large NW swell moving into the north and western waters will reach from 10N140W to the Revillagigedo Islands tonight. The mixed swell over the equatorial waters will persist for the next several days. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will reach our NW border at 30N140W by midday Wed, bringing with it fresh to strong winds on either side of the front, and very large seas in NW swell north of 20N through the end of the week. Even larger reinforcing NW swell may arrive Fri afternoon to the NW waters, possibly in excess of 20 ft. This set of swell with seas of 8 ft or greater will cover the waters N of 05N and W of 110W by late Sat night, then covering all of the waters W of 105W.