Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Oct 26 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0855 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Sonia is centered near 13.4N 119.5W at 26/0900 UTC, moving west at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Seas near the center are peaking around 16 ft (5 M). Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed from 10N to 18N and between 112W and 122W. Sonia is moving toward the west and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected later today, and that motion should continue through Monday. Some strengthening is forecast through tonight. Gradual weakening is expected by early next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Sonia NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 101W, south of 17N, moving westward at 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the trough axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N85W and continues westward to 11N95W and to a 1011 mb low pres near 09N105W and to 12N109W. The monsoon trough continues from 12N122W to 09N130W. The ITCZ stretches from 09N130W to beyond 07N140W. Aside for the convection associated with Sonia, scattered moderate convection is present from 06N to 13N and between 88W and 112W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The Mexican offshore waters remain under the influence of a subtropical ridge located well north of Hawaii. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicate that moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds are present in the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas in these waters are 7-11 ft, with the highest seas occurring north of Punta Eugenia. The satellite-derived wind data also captured moderate to locally fresh NW winds in the southern Gulf of California and off Cabo Corrientes. Seas in these waters are 3-5 ft. Elsewhere, including the rest of the Gulf of California and Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the Baja California offshore waters through the middle of the work week, supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds. Rough seas, in NW swell, will persist across the outer forecast waters with seas building to 11 ft N of Punta Eugenia as additional pulses of long period NW swell reach the area. This swell event will gradually subside on Tue. The next gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region is expected tonight into Mon night with winds reaching 25 kt. Thereafter, a strong cold front will move across the Gulf of America by midweek, supporting strong to possibly gale-force N winds and rough seas in the Tehuantepec region Wed into late this week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Onshore moderate to locally fresh SW-W winds continue south of the monsoon trough, including the Gulf of Panama. Seas in these waters are 3-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. A few showers are noted off Costa Rica and Panama. For the forecast, onshore westerly wind flow and moderate seas is expected through Tuesday in response to the broad cyclonic circulation associated to Hurricane Melissa located in the central Caribbean Sea. Winds and seas will diminish thereafter. Meanwhile, rough seas will reach the far offshore waters of Guatemala due to a strong gap wind event in Tehuantepec and winds will freshen up in the Papagayo region by the end of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please, see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for details on Tropical Storm Sonia located well SW of Baja California. Sonia continues to move slowly westward over the eastern waters, while a frontal trough remains over the far NW waters. The remainder of the basin is dominated by an expansive subtropical ridge centered well NW of the area. A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed that moderate to locally fresh NE winds are present over much of the waters north of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. A long-period NW swell is producing seas of 8-11 ft across these waters. Meanwhile, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate to rough seas are found south of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. For the forecast, the subtropical ridge will continue to dominate the N waters today into early this week while Tropical Storm Sonia moves westward. The aforementioned swell event will continue to propagate southeastward and has merged with swell generated by Sonia. Tropical Storm Sonia is near 13.4N 119.5W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving west at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Sonia will move to 13.5N 119.9W this afternoon, 13.9N 120.6W Mon morning, 14.3N 121.6W Mon afternoon, 14.7N 122.8W Tue morning, 14.8N 124.3W Tue afternoon, and weaken to a remnant low near 14.9N 126.0W Wed morning. Sonia will change little in intensity as it moves to the 14.5N 129.7W early Thu.