Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jan 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0330 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 09N84W to 06N92W to 05N100W. The ITCZ continues from 05N100W to 07N120W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 13N between 107W and 121W, and from 06N to 13N between 120W and 138W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong northerly gap winds persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas in the 5 to 8 ft range. Outside of the Tehuantepec area, winds are light to gentle and seas moderate to 6 ft in NW swell, except for slight seas along the Gulf of California. Otherwise, locally moderate N to NW winds are likely ongoing offshore Jalisco, Mexico. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and occasionally rough seas will prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri morning. A surface trough will enter the Baja California offshore waters Fri evening, supporting gentle to moderate NW to SW winds. High pressure to the NW will tighten the pressure gradient early Sat morning, and winds in the vicinity of the trough will freshen through Sat evening, also affecting the entrace of the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are possible along the Gulf of California Sun night through Tue night. Otherwise, another gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will start Mon morning with gale-force winds likely reaching storm-force briefly Mon evening. Strong gales will then continue Mon and end Tue night. Rough to very rough seas expected during the gap wind event. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong gap winds, and seas of 6 to 8 ft, prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo, extending southwest to 90W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas in the Papagayo region through at least Fri. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or weaker over the forecast waters through early next the week. A possible gale force gap wind event over Tehuantepec will bring a set of large NW to N swell over the waters well offshore Guatemala early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate combined seas, primarily in NW swell, dominate the discussion waters. For the forecast, winds should remain moderate or weaker, with seas less than 8 ft, for the next several days. Fresh to strong SW winds, along with long-period NW swell, will move into the waters north of 25N and west of 135W Mon ahead of a cold front expected to move southwest of 30N140W by Mon night.