Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Tue Nov 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1450 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 1011 mb low pressure on the coast of NW Colombia at 10.5N74.5W to the Gulf of Panama at 07N79.5W to along the coast of western Panama and Costa Rica to 1011 mb low pressure at 10N92.5W to 06.5N96W. The ITCZ stretches from 06.5N96W to 05N129W where it ends due to a NE to SW surface trough to the W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 03.4S to 02N between 78.5W and 83W, from 04N to 06.5N between 77W and 82W, within 90 nm in the N quadrant of the low at 10N92.5W, from 03N to 12N between 102W and 121W, and from 00N to 15N between 121W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The tight pressure gradient between a 1022 mb high pressure system over the southern United States and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustains fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 5-7 ft across the Gulf of Tehuantepec basin. Meanwhile, broad ridging extends southeastward across the Baja California waters to the Revillagigedo Islands, supporting moderate or weaker winds across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. Long-period NW swell is producing seas of 7-11 ft in the offshore waters of Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro, with the highest seas occurring west of Guadalupe island. Elsewhere, slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh northerly winds and rough seas around 8 ft will pulse to strong to locally near gale-force at night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the remainder of the week. Rough seas in NW swell will continue across the Baja offshore waters, then begin to diminish tonight through Thu. Looking ahead, fresh winds and rough seas approaching 12 ft are expected to reach the offshore waters of Baja California on Fri, associated with a frontal system. Yet a larger NW swell arriving Sat will produce very rough seas to 19 ft. Rough seas will reach all the way to near 100W by early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure centered north of the the Caribbean supports moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 4-6 ft in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 3-5 ft are occurring in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds will funnel across the Papagayo region and extend to 90W through Wed night, then diminish into the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse in the western Gulf of Panama through Wed morning. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in merging SW and NW swell will prevail, except locally rough SSW of the Galapagos Islands through the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad high pressure covers the northern waters. A surface trough is to the south analyzed from 15N125W to 06N136W. The pressure gradient between the ridging and trough supports moderate to fresh winds from 11N to 21N to the W of the trough. Moderate or weaker winds dominate the remainder of the open waters. Rough NW swell with heights of 8-11 ft covers the majority of the waters N of 10N and W of 115W. Merging SW and NW swell supports rough seas of 7-10 ft S of 10N between 100W and 130W. Moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, high pressure combined with troughing over the W-central waters will support moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough seas across the trade waters during the next few days. New large NW swell moving into the north and western waters will reach from 10N140W to the Revillagigedo Islands tonight. The mixed swell over the equatorial waters will persist for the next several days. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will reach our NW border at 30N140W by midday Wed, bringing with it fresh to strong NW winds and very large seas in NW swell north of 20N through the end of the week. Even larger reinforcing NW swell may arrive Fri afternoon to the NW waters, possibly in excess of 20 ft. This set of swell with seas of 8 ft or greater will cover the waters N of 05N and W of 110W by late Sat night.