Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jul 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 87W, and extends from the eastern Yucatan Peninsula southward, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 02N to 10N E of 90W. The axis of a tropical wave is along 101W, from 04N to 15N, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N to 16N between 90W and 101W. The axis of a tropical wave is along 130W from 07N to 19N, moving westward at 10 kt. A cluster of moderate to strong convection is noted from 09N to 14N between 127W and 130W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1008 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 10N76w to 07N80W to 10N90W to 07N101W to 14N115W to beyond 05N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 15N between 108W and 120W, and from 04N to 08N W of 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails west of the Baja California peninsula, with a surface trough over the Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting moderate to fresh SE winds along the Gulf of California. A surface trough moving across the Bay of Campeche is helping to induce fresh to strong northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere along with moderate seas. For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds will prevail across the Baja California offshore waters through the middle of next week along with slight to moderate seas in mixed swell. Fresh to strong SE winds across the Gulf of California will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds late today. Pulses of fresh to strong winds will persist in the Tehuantepec region through early next week. Otherwise, an area of low pressure is expected to form over the next couple of days, several hundred miles south- southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by mid-next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, the lowering pressure may induce at least fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas across the offshore waters of SW Mexico starting late Sun or Sun night. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A tropical wave along 87W is helping to induce scattered moderate to isolated strong convection across the forecast waters from Colombia to Guatemala. Fresh E winds are blowing across the Papagayo region and downwind to 89W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere with the exception of light to gentle winds between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. Seas are generally moderate in long period SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region through the middle of next week with moderate to rough seas. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds and rough seas may impact the waters offshore El Salvador and Guatemala Sun through Mon night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters N of 18N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and W of 125W. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere along with moderate seas. For the forecast, an area of low pressure is expected to form over the next couple of days, several hundred miles south- southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by mid-next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. Regardless of development, this system is expected to bring strong winds and rough seas to the SW Mexican offshore waters Sun through midweek.