Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jul 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale warning: Post-Tropical Cyclone Douglas is centered near 18.8N 127.6W at 03/0300 UTC, moving north-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas of up to 4.0 m extend up to 90 nm from the center. Douglas is no longer a tropical storm, and showers and thunderstorms are diminishing around Douglas as the storm moves over cooler waters. However, a recent scatterometer satellite pass showed tropical storm force winds persisting within 150 nm in the norther quadrant of the center. Therefore, a gale warning remains in effect for the remaining overnight period. Douglas is predicted to gradually weaken this weekend and then open into a trough and dissipate by Sunday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Douglas NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 89W, south of 20N in the NW Caribbean, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Associated convection is described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section. A tropical wave is analyzed along 100W, south of 15N, moving west at 5-10 kt. Associated convection is also described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N84W to 05N100W to 10N125W to 11N135W. The ITCZ extends from 11N135W to beyond 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 14N east of 105W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to strong gap winds with locally rough seas are pulsing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, between high pressure north of the region and lower pressure over the tropics. Associated seas are reaching 8 ft in the plume of these gap winds. Farther north, a ridge off Baja California will maintain gentle to moderate breezes, with 4-6 ft seas off Baja. Gentle breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, the fresh to strong gap winds with locally rough seas will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning, then diminish. Farther north, the ridge off Baja California will maintain gentle to moderate breezes through Sat, becoming moderate to occasionally fresh near the coast of Baja California starting Sun as the high pressure builds. Looking ahead, large SW swell may reach the waters off southern Mexico early next week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE gap winds continue to dominate the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 90W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across this area. Gentle to moderate SW breezes are noted elsewhere. Cross- equatorial SW swell to 8 ft dominate waters S of 02N between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador, with 4-6 ft seas elsewhere. Scattered to numerous strong convection continues across the waters N of 05N from Colombia to offshore of Guatemala, producing strong gusty winds and locally rough seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo region into early next week, leading to occasional rough seas. Cross- equatorial southerly swell will dominate area seas through the weekend and keep seas moderate to the S of 05N through Mon, increasing to near 8 ft off Ecuador and the Galapagos Sun night through Tue. Large SW swell may also reach the waters off northern Central America early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section on the gale warning associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Douglas. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas extend 360 to 480 nm from the center of Douglas. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 6-7 ft seas are noted elsewhere north of 15N and west of 120W. Farther east, fresh winds and locally rough seas accompany the tropical wave along 100W. Mostly gentle breezes and 4-6 ft in mixed swell are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, winds and seas near Douglas will diminish through Sun night as the remnant low opens into a trough. The ridge will then drift southwestward and generally persist across the region through early next week, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds farther south into the tropics. Looking ahead, weak low pressure may form about 360 nm south of the Revillagigedo Islands by Sun night. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system while it moves generally westward at 10-15 kt through the early part of next week, although chances of development at this time are low.