Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Jul 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 96W, south of 16N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Associated convection is described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section. A tropical wave is analyzed along 105W, south of 16N, moving west at 10 kt. Associated convection is also described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N83W to 08N95W to 06N105W. The ITCZ extends from 06N105W to 08N120W to 05N130W to beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 04N to 11N between 77W and 90W. Scattered moderate convection is from 12N to 14N between 98W and 101W, and from 07N to 11N between 110W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge extends from the NE Pacific across the Baja California waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands, and is maintaining gentle to moderate NW to N winds, with 5-7 ft seas in merging NW and SW swell, per recent satellite altimeter data. Gentle breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere to Puerto Angel. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong NW to N gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are up to 6 ft in this area. Low level convergent flow is supporting clusters of showers and thunderstorms off western Oaxaca and eastern Guerrero beyond 90 nm offshore. For the forecast, the ridge extending into the Baja California waters will continue to maintain gentle to moderate breezes through Sat, becoming moderate to occasionally fresh near the coast of Baja California starting Sat evening through Tue, as the high pressure strengthens modestly across the area. Fresh to strong gap winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning, and to a lesser extent tonight, then diminish. Looking ahead, SW swell to 7 ft is expected to reach the waters off southern Mexico early next week. Expect fresh southerly winds across the northern Gulf of California Tue and Wed. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong NE to E gap winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, and concurrent altimeter satellite passes showed 5-7 ft seas within this plume. Mostly gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere with 4-6 ft seas. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms extend across the Gulf of Panama, along much of the Pacific coast of Colombia, and off the Nicoya peninsula of Costa Rica. This activity is firing along the monsoon trough, and is aided by divergent flow aloft. For the forecast, the scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to shift westward across the area waters off Panama and Costa Rica through early Sun before activity begin to shift northward into the Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse tonight and again Mon night across the Papagayo region into early next week, leading to occasional rough seas. Large cross- equatorial southerly swell to 8 ft will move into the waters off Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Sun through Tue. Farther north, the combination of the southerly swell with shorter period seas associated with gap winds will allow combined seas to 8 ft off northern Central America by Tue into Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1006 mb low pressure area, the remnant low of Douglas, is centered near 22N129W. An earlier scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong winds were still active within 240 nm of the center of Douglas, mainly on the northern side between the low the subtropical ridge to the north of the area. Concurrent altimeter satellite data showed wave heights to 13 ft just to the east of the center, indicated maximum seas to 14 ft in the area of strongest winds to the north of the center. The presence of this low pressure is disrupting the subtropical ridge north of 20N. This pattern is supporting mostly gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere west of 120W, with 5-7 ft seas in a mix of swell. East of 120W, a long plume of fresh E winds and 7-8 ft seas emerging from the Papagayo gap area is reaching as far west as 105W, from 08N to 11N. Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere east of 120W. Wave heights are 6-8 ft with SW swell. For the forecast, winds and seas near the remnants of Douglas will gradually diminish through Sun night as the remnant low weakens and opens into a trough. The ridge will drift southwestward and generally persist across the region through early next week, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds farther south into the tropics. Looking ahead, weak low pressure may form south of the Revillagigedo Islands by the early to middle part of the coming week. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system while it moves generally westward at 10-15 kt, although chances of development at this time are low.