Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Jul 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 83W north of 06N to across western Central America along the border of Costa Rica and Panama, continuing into the western Caribbean Sea, moving westward around 10 kt. Any nearby convection is described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. A tropical wave is analyzed along 123W from 04N to 19N, moving quickly westward at around 25 kt. Any nearby convection is described in the monsoon trough/ITCZ section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from western Colombia from 09N75W to 07N88.5W. The ITCZ extends from 06N92W to 08N122W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 08.5N125W to beyond 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 04N between 91W and 96W, from 11.5N to 14N between 91W and 96W, from 05N to 08.5N between 101W and 109W, from 04N to 13N between 109W and 127W, and from 00N to 13N between 127W and 140W. Similar convection is within 90 nm of the coast of SW Mexico between 99W and 104W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends across the Baja California offshore waters from WNW of the area while a surface trough is analyzed from SW Arizona to the northern Gulf of California to Baja California Sur. This pressure pattern supports moderate to locally fresh NW-N winds offshore Baja California N of Cabo San Lazaro, with similar wind speeds out of the SE-S in the central and northern Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds extend from the Gulf of Tehuantepec downwind to 12N100W. Seas are mainly 4-7 ft across the open waters in S-SW swell, except mixed with NW swell offshore Baja California. Seas are 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California N of the entrance. Active convection is present within 60 nm of the coast of SW Mexico between 99W and 104W. For the forecast, ridging will hold across the offshore waters of Baja California through Wed night, with the resultant gradient leading to moderate to fresh NW winds over these same waters, locally strong to the north of Punta Eugenia through Tue night. Moderate to fresh gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will pulse at fresh to strong speeds at night into the mornings through the rest of the week and into the weekend, with seas to rough at times. Little change in winds is forecast elsewhere, except increasing and pulsing to fresh to strong in the central and northern Gulf of California by the end of the week as the gradient tightens there. Fresh NW swell off California will push southward off Baja California Norte late Tue night into early Wed, continuing through Fri. Moderate seas are forecast elsewhere. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE winds are continuing across the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 90W, where seas are 6-8 ft. Moderate to locally fresh winds are elsewhere to the N of 09N. Moderate SE winds are offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands, where seas are 6-9 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle winds are across the remainder of the waters, along with 4-7 ft mainly in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE-E gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo region into early Thu, then moderate to fresh thereafter. Moderate to fresh N-NE winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Tue night. Little change in winds is forecast elsewhere through the week. Cross equatorial SW swell will move through the waters off Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through early Wed, with seas peaking around 9 ft. The combination of the southerly swell with shorter period seas associated with gap winds will allow combined seas to build to a peak of about 8 ft offshore of northern Central America Tue through Wed with mainly moderate seas otherwise. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge continues across the northeast tropical Pacific and N of the discussion area, extending SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the remnant trough of Douglas analyzed from near 27N130W to 22N131W is producing fresh northeast winds from 25N to 30N to the W of the trough to 135W. Seas are to 8 ft in a mix of easterly swells over these waters. Winds are mainly gentle to moderate across the remainder of the waters to the N of the ITCZ, except locally fresh S of 18N. Mainly moderate to locally fresh winds are south of the ITCZ. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in S to SW swell across the waters mainly S of 14N, locally strong W of 135W near active convection described above. Seas are mainly 5-8 ft in mixed swell across the remainder of the waters, except 7-9 ft in S-SW swell S of 10N between 90W and 130W. For the forecast, the remnant trough of Douglas will continue drifting westward through the rest of the week. The ridge will build ESE through Wed night, with the gradient between it and the remnant Douglas trough leading to a solid area of fresh trades over the western half of the area along with seas of 7-8 ft. Large southerly swell with seas up to 9 ft will continue impacting the waters S of 06N through mid-week before gradually decaying. Large northerly swells off California will build seas to around 9 ft offshore Baja California Norte by mid-week, lingering through the end of the work week. Meanwhile, the tropical wave will continue moving westward with scattered moderate convection.