Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Feb 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure across north of the area and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting strong gale-force winds in the Tehuantepec region. A recent ASCAT scatterometer pass showed 40-45 kt wind barbs. Very rough seas up to 16 ft are also present. A recent ship observation well downwind of the Gulf near 12N95W reported seas near 14 ft. Winds will very gradually diminish, falling below gale-force by Tue morning. Another gale force gap wind event is possible in Tehuantepec starting the middle of the week into next weekend. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Near-gale to gale-force NE to E gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo will prevail through Tue morning as an Arctic high pressure over the eastern United States helps maintain a tight pressure gradient. Recent ASCAT scatterometer data showed numerous wind barbs right around gale- force. Seas will peak near 12 ft with these winds. Fresh to strong winds will then pulse through the remainder of the forecast period. Significant W-NW Swell Event: A potent weather system will bring gale-force winds just NW of 30N140W tonight through Tue. Rough seas are already spreading southeast of 30N140W, and seas will build to 12 ft or greater near 30N140W by early Tue. Seas of 12 ft or greater will then cover the waters west of a line from 30N135W to 26N140W by early Wed, then west of a line from 30N131W to 19N140W by early Thu, and west of a line from 30N123W to 15N133W by early Fri. Seas are forecast to peak around 20 ft near 30N140W Wed night into early Thu. Seas will then gradually subside to just less than 12 ft by early Sat, while a large surround area of 8 ft or greater covers much of the waters west of 110W by then. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N77.5W to 08N84W to 03N97W to 04N105W. The ITCZ extends from 04N105W to 08N125W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 06N between 90W and 99W, from 07N to 11N between 128W and 137W, and from 11N to 17N between 124W and 131W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas, except slight in the Gulf of California, and except for rough seas moving into the waters off Baja California Norte. For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a set of NW swell will continue to impact the waters west of the Baja California peninsula through Tue night. Another set of large NW swell will enter the waters off Baja California Norte the end of the week, spreading across the waters W of 105W during the upcoming weekend. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Papagayo. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. Aside from the Gulf of Papagayo, fresh to strong winds prevail in the Gulf of Panama and elsewhere near the Azuero Peninsula with locally rough seas possible with those winds. Similar winds are found near and downwind of the Gulf of Fonseca as confirmed by recent ASCAT data. Rough seas are well offshore Guatemala and western El Salvador due to a persistent and strong gale-force gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, aside from the Gulf of Papagayo, a gale-force gap wind event over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will produce rough to very rough seas over the western Guatemala and El Salvador waters through the early part of the week, and then again late this week with another gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Swell generated from the Gulf of Papagayo gap wind event will merge with this area to maintain rough and confused seas early this week. Fresh to strong northerly gap winds along with rough seas will impact the Gulf of Panama through Wed morning, with similar conditions in the Gulf of Fonseca. Moderate to fresh winds will then pulse in the Gulf of Panama for the remainder of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A Significant W-NW Swell event is forecast for the NW and northern waters. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. A leading and separate set of large NW swell, with seas in the 8 to 11 ft range prevails over the waters west of a line from 30N117W to 10N130W to 04N140W. Rough seas generated from a strong Gulf of Tehuantepec gale-force gap wind event and a gale- force Gulf of Papagayo gap wind event are over the discussion waters north of 02N between 88W and 108W. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails across the waters north of 20N and west of 110W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to locally fresh trades north of the ITCZ to near 20N and west of about 120W. Elsewhere, moderate winds, and moderate seas in mixed swell, prevail, except arriving fresh to strong southerly winds spreading into the waters just southeast of 30N140W. For the forecast, aside from the Significant W-NW swell event described in the Special Features, seas greater than 8 ft with a separate and leading set of NW swell will spread SE through the early part of this week before starting to subside below 8 ft by mid-week. Fresh to strong southerly winds will impact the NW waters much of this week with a gale-force system just to the NW of 30N140W. High pressure is forecast to build in the wake of that system, with fresh to strong trades possible from 07N to 20N and west of 120W during the upcoming weekend. Meanwhile, confused seas generated by ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo gales will continue to impact the open waters downwind of those Gulfs into mid-week before subsiding. Similar seas are possible over generally the same open waters late in the week and into next weekend, with the next possible gale event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec.