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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jul 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Elida is centered near 15.4N 115.2W at 16/0300 UTC, moving west at 11 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 997 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are currently around 16 ft or 5.0 m. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 120 nm in the east semicircle, and within 60 nm in the west semicircle. Similar convection is noted between 180 nm and 360 nm in the south quadrant. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere within 420 nm in the northeast quadrant, 900 nm in a band in the southeast quadrant, in a band between 240 nm and 810 nm in the southwest quadrant, and within 300 nm in the northwest quadrant of Elida. Elida is moving toward the west, and a turn toward the west-northwest is expected on Thu, followed by a northwestward motion beginning on Fri and continuing through the weekend. Additional strengthening is expected during the next couple of days, and Elida could become a hurricane by Thu night or early Fri. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Elida NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 97W, north of 02N to across southern Mexico over Oaxaca, moving westward at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 12N between 88W and 102W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 10N86W to 08N95W to 15N111W, then resumes southwest of Elida from 12N118W to 09N126W to low pressure, 1007 mb, near 11.5N139W to beyond 11N140W. Other than the convection mentioned with Elida and the tropical wave above, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 15N between 125W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Elida, centered about 539 nautical miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas associated with the periphery of T.S. Elida are reaching the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas just south of the islands are 8 to 14 ft. Meanwhile, fresh to strong northerly winds are across the Tehuantepec region with seas of 6 to 7 ft. A broad ridge prevails elsewhere offshore of Baja California and to the northwest of Elida, while a NW to SE surface trough is analyzed across the Baja California Peninsula. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds and 3 to 7 ft seas across the Baja offshore waters away from Elida. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate SE to S winds and seas of 1 to 3 ft prevail, higher near the entrance. An upper- level low spinning over Baja California Sur is generating some cloudiness and a few showers and thunderstorms across parts of the Baja California Peninsula, as well as over portions of NW mainland Mexico. Additional convection is present off southern Mexico near a tropical wave as described above. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Elida will move to 15.7N 116.7W Thu morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 16.2N 118.6W Thu evening, 17.0N 120.0W Fri morning, 18.1N 121.4W Fri evening, 19.3N 122.8W Sat morning, and 20.6N 124.0W Sat evening. Elida will weaken to a tropical storm over 23.1N 126.4W late Sun. Otherwise, a broad ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through Thu, allowing for gentle to moderate NW to N winds to continue along with moderate seas in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, moderate to locally fresh southerly winds are expected to pulse out of the southwest to west through gaps across portions of the Gulf through at least Fri, locally strong in the northern Gulf Fri night. Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through at least the upcoming weekend, strongest during the late night and early morning hours, with locally rough seas at times. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form later this week several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend into early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward well offshore of Mexico. Increasing winds and building seas will be possible again in and around the Revillagigedo Islands late in the weekend into early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds continue across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 89W, with moderate to fresh easterly winds elsewhere from 08.5N to 12N. Seas are 5 to 7 ft downstream of Papagayo. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, primarily in SW swell, dominate the remainder of the offshore waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas will prevail across the Papagayo region, peaking at night through Sun night, possibly increasing to near gale-force early next week. Moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama tonight and Thu night. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected elsewhere, except in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and nearshore western Colombia where slight seas are forecast. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Elida, centered about 539 nautical miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. A ridge dominates the waters north of 10N and west of 120W, or ahead of Tropical Storm Elida. The pressure gradient between the ridge and Elida supports moderate to fresh N to NE winds and 4 to 7 ft seas in mixed swells. A growing band of fresh to strong SW winds and 7 to 9 ft seas are found south of the monsoon trough and wrapping into the circulation of Elida, from roughly 03N to 08N between 112W and 130W. Moderate to fresh winds are found elsewhere south of 07N and east of 125W along with 6 to 8 ft seas. Mainly moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the open waters. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Elida will move to 15.7N 116.7W Thu morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 16.2N 118.6W Thu evening, 17.0N 120.0W Fri morning, 18.1N 121.4W Fri evening, 19.3N 122.8W Sat morning, and 20.6N 124.0W Sat evening. Elida will weaken to a tropical storm over 23.1N 126.4W late Sun. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form later this week several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend into early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward well offshore of Mexico. Increasing winds and building seas will be possible again in and around the Revillagigedo Islands late in the weekend into early next week. Otherwise, little change in winds and seas overall is expected through the next several days.