Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat May 2 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A late-season, short-lived gap wind event is expected in the Tehuantepec region by early Sun morning as a ridge builds across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico, behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of America. Wind are expected to increase to minimal gale force on Sun, with seas building to 9 to 12 ft. Then, winds are forecast to diminish below gale force by Mon morning with seas of 8 to 10 ft. Afterwards, marine conditions are expected to rapidly improve. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season occurs in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring in late March or early April. Occasionally, gale-force events may occur as early as September, and as late as May. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends westward from a 1009 mb low pressure located near the coast of Colombia to 08N85W to 07N99W. The ITCZ continues from 07N99W to 05N120W to 08N140W. A large area of moderate to strong convection covers the waters from 04N to 10N E of 88W to the coast of Colombia, including the Gulf of Panama. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 09N to 13N W of 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please read the Special Features section above for details. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds and moderate seas. In the Gulf of California, mainly light to gentle winds and slight seas are noted. Elsewhere along the Mexican forecast waters, light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed swells prevail. For the forecast, aside from the gale conditions in the Tehunatepec region, fresh to strong S to SW winds and moderate seas are expected in the northern Gulf of California Sun and Sun night. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds seas are noted south of the equatorial trough while W to NW winds are to the north of it. Seas are in general 3 to 5 ft in primarily SW swell. Meanwhile, gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are likely in a large area of showers and thunderstorms now affecting the coastal waters of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica, including the Gulf of Panama. These hazardous conditions are expected to continue on Sunday. For the forecast, abundant tropical moisture and surface convergence will persist across the offshore waters of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica, including the Gulf of Panama, through early next week, continuing to support the development of showers and thunderstorms across the area. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong easterly winds are expected in the Papagayo region Mon night, and again Tue night as high pressure builds N of the area. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas, in primarily southerly swell, are expected through midweek next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominates the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 110W, including the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough that is analyzed from 20N135W to 15N138W supports an area of fresh to strong N to NE winds W of the trough axis to beyond 140W. Recent scatterometer data confirmed the presence of these wind speeds. Elsewhere under the influence of the ridge, gentle to moderate winds are noted, with locally fresh winds across the trade wind zone. South of the ITCZ, mainly light to gentle winds with seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed swells prevail. A former cold front, in the form of a surface trough, will sink south of 31N tonight through Sun while weakening. Moderate to fresh trade winds are forecast to increase to fresh to strong speeds by Sun night W of 130W. As a result, rough seas will persist across that area through at least late Mon. Pulses of NW swell will continue to combine with NE wind waves to maintain moderate seas across the remainder of forecast waters W of 110W.