Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Jun 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 96W, south of 16N, moving west around 20 kt. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 09N-13N between 93W-99W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 105W, south of 17N, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Convection is described below in the ITCZ/Monsoon trough section. The axis of a tropical wave is near 119W, south of 20N, moving westward at around 15 kt. Convection is described below in the ITCZ/Monsoon trough section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N95W to 12N115W to 07N135W. The ITCZ extends from 07N135W to beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is occurring from 09N-13N between 93W-99W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 06N-15N between 105W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The pressure difference between lower pressure in the deep tropics and higher pressure north of the area is supporting fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 5-6 ft in S to SW swell for Pacific waters and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the low pressure over the deep tropics will be inducing fresh to strong N to NE gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Fri. Also, expect fresh winds and locally rough seas off Oaxaca and Guerrero Thu night. Elsewhere, winds and seas across the Mexican Offshores should be quiescent. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds are NE fresh to strong in the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas 7-9 ft, with a long plume of moderate to fresh E winds and 7-8 ft seas reaching as far as 95W. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker with seas of 4-7 ft in S to SW swell. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the NE Pacific monsoon trough is supporting a Gulf of Papagayo region gap wind event. Fresh to strong NE to E winds should last into early next week. Elsewhere, winds should remain quiescent. Large S swell moving into the equatorial waters tonight will continue through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad high pressure covers the waters north of 15N, anchored by 1032 mb near 37N145W. A weakening 1008 mb low pressure is centered near 18N119W, along a tropical wave. A few showers and thunderstorms are active within 60 nm of the center of the low pressure, along with fresh to strong winds and rough seas. Fresh trade winds and 6-8 ft seas are noted from 10N to 20N elsewhere west of 120W. Gentle to moderate breezes and 4-6 ft seas are noted elsewhere. For the forecast aside from the weakening EP94, another low pressure system is likely to form this weekend or early next week over the central portion of the East Pacific basin. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression could form by the early to middle part of next week as the system moves westward to west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Tropical cyclone formation chance is near 0 percent through 48 hours, but is high...70 percent...through 7 days. Elsewhere, large seas due to mixed SW and SE swell will be moving across our southern border tonight through the weekend. 8 ft seas should reach up to 02N before diminishing.