Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Apr 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough axis extends from 09N79W to 04N87W to 09N107W. The ITCZ extends from 09N107W to 08N124W to beyond 06N140W. A second ITCZ is south and southwest of the discussion waters. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is active from 01N to 06N between 81W and 86W, from 02S to 02N between 85W and 92W, from 03N to 08N between 97W and 122W, and from 10N to 14N between 118W and 122W. Scattered moderate convection is active from 02N to 11.5N between 126W and 133W, and from 03N to 08N between 135W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Broad ridging over the eastern Pacific west of Baja California is generally maintaining moderate to locally fresh northwest winds over the offshore waters of Baja California, with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere, except southwest to west at moderate to locally fresh speeds just offshore of southern Mexico near and west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Combined seas are 4-6 ft off Baja California, 3-5 ft off southwest and southern Mexico, and 1-3 ft in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the high pressure over the region will maintain moderate to fresh northwest winds over the Baja California waters well into next week. A tightening pressure gradient between high pressure northwest of the region shifting eastward, with a ridge extending southeastward across the Baja California offshore waters and low pressure over the western U.S. will induce strong to near gale southwest to west gap winds across the northern Gulf of California tonight into Sun. Winds will also increase slightly to fresh to strong between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia Sun night through Mon morning. Elsewhere, mostly light to gentle west to northwest winds are expected through early next week. Moderate to fresh winds may develop in the central and southern Gulf of California by the middle of next week as the pressure gradient tightens slightly. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle variable winds prevail north of the equator along with seas of 2-4 ft. Gentle to moderate southeast winds along with seas of 5-7 ft in long-period south to southwest swell continue south of the equator. For the forecast, a light gradient will maintain rather tranquil conditions over the Central American and Colombian waters well into next week while moderate to fresh southeast winds and moderate long-period south to southwest swell remain offshore Ecuador. Winds may pulse to moderate to fresh in the Gulf of Papagayo and Gulf of Panama starting Tue morning. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The gradient related to broad high pressure north of the ITCZ is generally supporting gentle to moderate trades across the open waters, except moderate to locally fresh near a trough analyzed from 27N130W to beyond 22N140W as measured by recent ASCAT scatterometer data, as well as north of the ITCZ to 14N to the west of 135W per the same data. Seas are mainly 5-7 ft in mixed swells across the open waters west of 95W, except locally to 8 ft near 140W from 05N to 14N, and also near 03.4S. Seas are 3-5 ft north of the Equator and east of 95W. For the forecast, the rather weak high pressure across the region will generally maintain moderate to fresh trade winds from the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W. Combined seas will be in the range of 5-7 ft over the western part of the area through the remainder of the weekend, locally to 8 ft near 140W through early evening, then 4-6 ft across the entire area early next week, except near 8 ft along 03.4S into early next week. Seas may build slightly over the waters north of 10N and west of 120W by the middle of next week in new swells.