Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Apr 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 10N75W to 05N81W to 02N103W. The ITCZ extends from 03.5N106W to 04.5N125W TO beyond 02.5N140W. Southern hemispheric ITCZ extends from 02.5S95W to 00.5S110W to beyond 02.5S120W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 00.5N to 07N between 84W and 105W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N to 11N between 120W and 140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted south of 01S between 98.5W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A cold front continues to move slowly southeastward across the Baja Norte waters and the northern Gulf of California, and is analyzed from southeastern Arizona across the northern Gulf of California and through Baja California Norte, across Punta Eugenia, and to beyond 25N120W. Weak high pressure is bridging across the weakening front from the NW, and yielding gentle to moderate NW to N winds across the nearshore waters of Baja and SW Mexico, on both sides of the front, and light to gentle N to NE winds farther offshore and across the Revillagigedo Islands. Moderate seas to 5 ft in mixed NW and SW swell prevail across the waters south of the front, while NW swell is filling in behind the front, producing seas of 6 to 7 ft. Gentle N winds prevail across southern portions of the Gulf of California with seas of 2 to 3 ft, except for moderate to fresh N-NW winds across the entrance of the Gulf, where seas are likely 4 to 5 ft. Fresh SW gap winds and moderate seas continue across north portions of the Gulf, except for fresh to strong NW winds beginning to spill out of the Colorado River basin and into the Gulf waters. Fresh N gap winds are noted in the Tehuantepec region N of 14.5N, where seas are around 6 ft. For the forecast, the cold front will gradually move SE and dissipate across central Baja and the central Gulf of California on Tue. Expect freshening NW to N winds across the Baja waters late tonight through Tue night. High pressure behind the front will build across the region and dominate conditions through the rest of the week. New NW swell will move into the Baja waters late Thu through Sat morning. Fresh to strong SW to W gap winds are expected in the northern Gulf of California tonight ahead of the front, with winds then becoming moderate to fresh from the N through the entire Gulf early Tue morning through Wed evening. Elsewhere between Baja Sur and Puerto Angel, winds will be moderate or weaker with moderate seas through Fri. Pulsing fresh to strong northerly gap winds will prevail across the Tehuantepec region through midday Tue. Looking ahead, high pressure will weaken across the region Sat leading to diminishing winds and seas. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds prevail across the Papagayo region and extend downwind to near 89W, producing seas 7 to 8 ft. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas in SW swell prevail in the Gulf of Panama, and extend beyond the Azuero Peninsula to near 04.5N. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell dominate the remainder of the offshore forecast waters. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection continues across the offshore waters of Costa Rica and extends southward to near the equator north of the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, broad high pressure will continue N of the area through Wed before gradually weakening through the end of the week. This will maintain fresh gap winds pulsing to strong during the nighttime and early morning hours across the Papagayo region to near 90W through Wed, then yield moderate winds pulsing to fresh at night through the end of the week. In the Gulf of Panama, moderate northerly winds will pulse to fresh each night through Wed morning, then will diminish slightly through the rest of the week. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. Cross-equatorial SW swell will raise seas to 6 to 8 ft between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands Tue through Wed evening. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure N of the area extends a ridge southward into the area W of 110W. A cold front is analyzed from the northern Gulf of California and through Baja California Norte, across Punta Eugenia, and to 25N120W, then weakens to near 22N130W. Moderate N to NE winds prevail north of the front, with seas 5 to 7 ft in NW swell, then become NE to E to the west of 130W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh winds south of 14N between 100W and 125W, and moderate to fresh NE to E winds south of 25N and west of 125W. Moderate seas to around 6 ft in mixed NW and S swell generally prevail across the area waters south of the front. Scattered convection has become more active along and N of the ITCZ W of 120W, and is producing areas of strong and gusty winds. To the E, seas of 6 to 8 ft prevail within the trade wind zone between 100W and 125W. 1030 mb high pressure north of the front will shift southeastward to near 33N through Wed, and strengthen the pressure gradient modestly across the local area. The weakening cold front across the northern waters will move into the central Baja Peninsula on Tue then gradually dissipate. Moderate N to NE winds and moderate to briefly rough seas in NW swell are forecast in the wake of the front through Wed. Cross-equatorial swell will raise seas along the equator 7 to near 8 ft Tue through Wed. Moderate to fresh winds are expected in the trade wind zone through Fri.