Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Jul 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 111W, moving W at 10-15W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 16N between 100W and 114W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 06N94W. The ITCZ extends from 06N94W to 08N109W, then resumes W of the tropical wave near 08N114W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 11N and E of 94W, and from 02N to 10N and W of 115W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends from the NE Pacific across the Baja California waters to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure over NW Mexico are supporting moderate to fresh NW winds offshore Baja California. Fresh NE winds prevail across the Tehuantepec region. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail, with 5-7 ft seas in merging NW and SW swell, except for light winds and seas 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the surface ridge extending into the Baja California waters will continue strengthens modestly across the area through Tue night, leading to moderate to fresh winds across the Baja California waters. Moderate to fresh gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue to pulse at night through midweek, then winds will peak to strong from Wed night through Fri night. Cross-equatorial SW swell will reach the waters off southern Mexico on Mon, building seas to around 7 ft. Expect fresh southerly winds across the northern Gulf of California Tue and Wed becoming strong on Thu. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered moderate convection prevails N of 06N and across Panama, and Costa Rica, and extend northward into the SW Caribbean in the vicinity of the monsoon trough. Fresh to strong NE gap winds continuing across the Papagayo region and extends offshore to 92W, where seas are 5-7 ft. Mostly gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted elsewhere S of 10N, along with seas seas of 4-6 ft in cross-equatorial SW swell. For the forecast, fresh NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to strong each night through midweek leading to rough seas. Large cross-equatorial southerly swell will move into the waters off Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands late Sun through Tue, building seas to 8 to 9 ft, and 6 to 7 ft across much of the remaining waters farther N. The combination of the southerly swell with shorter period seas associated with gap winds will allow combined seas to build to 8 ft offshore of northern Central America Tue through Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge continues across the NE Pacific and north of the area waters tonight, extending southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the remnants of Douglas, now a trough from 27N127W to 21N132W, is producing fresh winds near the trough. Peak seas are still to 9 ft to the NW of the trough. The ridge supports gentle to moderate NE to E winds elsewhere north of 15N and west of 120W, with 5-7 ft seas in a mixed swell. East of 120W, a plume of fresh to strong E winds and 6-8 ft seas prevail from 10N to 15N between 100W and 115W. Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere east of 110W, with seas to 7 ft. Active thunderstorms continue about the tropical wave along 111W, between 100W and 115W. For the forecast, winds and seas near the remnants of Douglas will continue drifting westward as a trough through the next few days. The ridge will drift southwestward and persist across the region through early week, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds into the tropics. The tropical wave will continue moving westward with scattered moderate convection.