Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Oct 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 21.2N 122.3W at 07/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 979 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are near 35 ft. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 20N-23N and between 120W-123W. A generally west to west-northwestward motion is expected during the next day or two. Rachel is then forecast to slow down before making a sharp turn to the northeast by the end of the week. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days. Swells partly generated by Rachel will build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Storm Simon is centered near 15.5N 101.6W at 07/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are around 13 ft. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is from 09N-16N between 97W-109W. Th WNW motion is expected to continue through tomorrow, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Simon is expected to remain south of Mexico through Friday, but approach the coast of southwestern Mexico on Saturday. Continued strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours, and Simon is expected to become a hurricane by late Thursday. It could become a major hurricane by Saturday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough exits coastal Costa Rica near 09N84W to Tropical Depression Twenty-E near 15N102W. The monsoon trough restarts at 11N115W and extends to beyond 11N140W. Numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is from 09N-16N between 97W-109W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N-10N east of 85W and 04S-04N between 130W-140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Depression Twenty-E offshore of southern Mexico. Aside from Tropical Depression Twenty-E, the offshore zones west of Baja California Sur are still being impacted by large W to SW swell produced by Hurricane Rachel. The remainder of forecast waters has winds moderate or weaker with seas 4-7 ft over the Pacific waters and 1-2 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 21.7N 123.2W Thu morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 22.1N 124.3W Thu afternoon, 22.5N 125.0W Fri morning, 23.0N 124.4W Fri afternoon, 24.1N 122.6W Sat morning, and 26.4N 120.0W Sat afternoon. Rachel should reach the offshore zones off of Baja California Norte on Sat and become post-tropical. Finally, the system is forecast to move across Baja California Norte early Sun just south of the California-Mexico border and move inland to near 33.0N 115.5W Sun afternoon. Tropical Storm Simon Simon will slowly be traversing and impacting the offshore zones off of southern Mexico for the next five days. Simon will move to 15.9N 102.7W Thu morning, 16.3N 104.0W Thu afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 16.6N 104.8W Fri morning, 17.0N 105.1W Fri afternoon, 17.8N 105.2W Sat morning, and 18.9N 105.3W Sat afternoon as it approaches Cabo Corrientes. Simon will change little in intensity as it moves to the 21.2N 105.6W Sun afternoon as it enters the approach to the Gulf of California. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Winds across forecast waters are gentle with seas 4-6 ft. For the forecast, quiescent winds and seas should continue over the Central American and Equatorial Zones for the next few days. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala during the early portion of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter, while it moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 kt. Tropical cyclone formation chance is near zero through 48 hours and is low through 7 days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel located over the NE waters. Away from Hurricane Rachel, a weak pressure gradient supports moderate or weaker winds across forecast waters. Large long- period SW swell is moving across the southern border between 95W-120W. Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel will move to 21.7N 123.2W Thu morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 22.1N 124.3W Thu afternoon, 22.5N 125.0W Fri morning, 23.0N 124.4W Fri afternoon, 24.1N 122.6W Sat morning, and 26.4N 120.0W Sat afternoon. Rachel should reach the offshore zones off of Baja California Norte on Sat and become post-tropical. Additionally, the large SW swell will continue near our southern border for the next several days.