Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun May 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N75W to 06N80W to 10N88W to 11N105W to 08N111W to 09.5N121W to 07N127W. The ITCZ extends from 06N128W to beyond 05N140W. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 01N to 06N between 83.5W and 93W, and from 05.5N to 15.5N between 98W and 112W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02.5N to 07.5N west of 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Afternoon satellite scatterometer data showed moderate NW to N winds across the waters of Baja California, due to the pressure gradient between a broad ridge W of the area and relatively lower pressure in the Baja California region. Fresh winds are assumed to now be occurring near the coast from Punta Eugenia to San Antonio. Seas with these winds are mostly 5 to 7 ft in NW swell. Gentle to moderate northerly winds prevail from Baja Sur and Cabo San Lucas southward beyond the Revillagigedo Islands and Cabo Corrientes to near 17N, where seas are 5 to 6 ft in mixed NW and SW swell. Light to gentle variable winds are in the Gulf of California. Seas are 1 to 3 ft in the Gulf, except for slightly higher seas of 2 to 4 ft in the southern portion of the Gulf. Winds become gentle to moderate and northerly in direction from the Gulf entrance to Cabo Corrientes, where seas are 5 to 6 ft in SW swell. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere to the east, with moderate seas in a mix of NW and SW swell, except for moderate south winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Numerous moderate to strong showers and thunderstorms have shifted westward in recent hours and are occurring across the outer waters to the southwest of Guerrero and Michoacan. For the forecast, the broad ridge west of the area will support moderate to fresh NW to N winds off Baja California Norte through Mon. Mostly moderate seas in NW swell will continue over these waters through the period. The high pressure will weaken and drift northward moving into the middle part of the week, allowing for generally gentle to moderate winds across the Baja waters. Large northwest swell will move into the waters just northwest of Isla Guadalupe this evening through Sun evening, then gradually subside. Looking ahead, strong to near gale gap winds and building seas are expected in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Tue through Wed night as a cold front moves through southern Mexico. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Midday satellite scatterometer data indicated mostly light to gentle winds over the offshore waters of Central America and southward to Ecuador, with fresh E gap winds across the Papagayo region extending to near 88W. Gentle to moderate N to NE winds filtering through the the Gulf of Panama at that time and to near 05N have increase to moderate to fresh this evening. Combined seas over these waters are 4 to 6 ft, except for higher seas of 7 to 8 ft in SW swell occurring S of 01N and E of 100W to near the coast of Peru. Scattered moderate to strong convection is occurring near the monsoon trough to the south of Panama and Costa Rica near the monsoon trough between 80W and 87W. For the forecast, moderate to fresh easterly gap winds will pulse at night to strong across the Papagayo region through the early part of the upcoming week. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected. Large SW swell near the southern waters of the Galapagos will subside late tonight, then increase again on Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1025 mb is north of the area near 32N133W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is generally maintaining moderate to fresh trades from 07N to 24N west of 130W, with similar trades from 10N to 25N between 120W and 130W, as noted in afternoon satellite scatterometer data. Altimeter data reveals seas of 7 to 9 ft in mixed E and SW swell over this area. Gentle to moderate winds along with seas of about 5 to 7 ft are elsewhere north of 11N per latest altimeter data a few SoFar Ocean Spotter buoy observations. Higher seas of 6 to 8 ft in SW swell are south 11N. Convection over this area is as described above under ITCZ/Monsoon Trough, and has become focused between between 95W and 110W. For the forecast, the ridge will change little across the region through early Sun, then weaken and begin to drift northward Sun through Tue. The associated weakened pressure gradient will support moderate trades, fresh at times, north of the ITCZ to about 24N and west of 120W Sun through early next week, with seas of 7 to 8 ft across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere during the upcoming week. Rough seas are expected in building southerly swell south of the Equator tonight, subsiding early on Sun, then another pulse of SW to S swell will begin to approach the waters south of the equator Sun evening through Mon night.