Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Feb 21 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: The next gap wind event across the Tehunatepec region is expected by Sun morning as a ridge builds across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico, behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of America. Wind are forecast to suddenly increase to 35 to 40 kt, with seas building to 9 to 12 ft on Sun. Then, winds will further increase to near storm force by Sun evening, with seas building to 12 to 18 ft. Gusty winds exceeding 50 kt are possible late Sun into Mon. Then, winds are forecast to strengthen to storm force by Mon morning with seas building to 20 to 24 ft. Storm conditions and very rough seas are expected to persist through Mon night, then winds will diminish to strong gale force on Tue. Large seas generated from this very strong gap wind event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far west as 105W by Mon night. Marine interests transiting across or in the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun through Tue should be aware of this upcoming gap wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid this hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. Winds are forecast to diminish below gale force early on Wed. Please read the latest NWS High Seas issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml Heavy Precipitation Event: Over the next several days the Pacific coasts of Colombia, Ecuador and NW Peru are expecting heavy precipitation due to persisting moist onshore flow that will interact with the Andes Mountains. Rainfall amounts of 4 to 6 inches (100 to 150 mm) are possible. The region should see the heaviest accumulations from Sun through Mon. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 09N84W to 02N105W. The ITCZ continues from 02N105W to 01N120W to 05N140W. A second surface trough is analyzed from a 1009 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 00N89W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from the Equator to 08N and E of 90W to the coast of Colombia. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Storm Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. A ridge extending from a 1022 mb high near 30N120W covers the Baja California offshore waters and supports gentle to moderate moderate NW winds along with moderate seas in NW swell. Recent scatterometer data indicate the presence of fresh to strong NW winds across the Gulf of California S of 28N with seas of 3 to 5 ft. Moderate to fresh NW winds are also noted beyond the entrance to the Gulf. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, high pressure over the Great Basin will induce fresh to strong NW winds across the entire Gulf of California tonight into Mon with seas building to 6 to 8 ft across the central and southern parts of the Gulf tonight and Sun. Looking ahead, a vigorous cold front pushing across the Gulf of America will support a storm-force gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region on Mon. Very large seas are will accompany this very strong gap wind event, propagating well away from the source region. Please, see the Special Features section for more information. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE winds are noted per scatterometer data over the Papagayo region and downwind to near 90W. Seas are likely 4 to 6 ft within these wind speeds. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds with seas of 2 to 4 ft are observed. Otherwise, scattered moderate convection persists across the offshore waters N of the Equator to about 08N and E of 90W. For the forecast, high pressure over Central America will support fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds over the Papagayo region through Sun night. These winds are forecast to strengthen to 25 to 30 kt on Mon with seas building to 8 to 10 ft. Minimal gale conditions and rough seas could be possible Tue morning through Wed morning as the pressure gradient tightens over the NW Caribbean. This will also support fresh to locally strong NE winds downwind of the Gulf of Panama and just S of the Azuero Peninsula to about 03N. Seas of 6 to 8 ft will likely be associated with these winds. In addition, seas generated in the Tehuantepec region are forecast to propagate across the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador Sun night through Tue night with seas building to 18 to 20 ft across the outer offshore waters. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge dominates most of the northern forecast waters N of 17N and W of 110W, including the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports an area of moderate to fresh trade winds from 09N to 13N between 110W and 118W based on satellite derived wind data. Decaying long period NW swell dominates most of the forecast waters N of 07N W of 115W based on the most recent altimeter passes. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are 4 to 7 ft. For the forecast, a cold front will reach 30N140W this evening, then move slowly across the NW waters, extending from 30N138W TO 28N140W by Sun night. Fresh to strong southerly winds and moderate to rough seas are expected ahead of the front Sun night through Mon night. A new set of long period NW swell will follow the front, building seas to 13 or 14 ft over the NW corner of the forecast region on Mon. In the meantime, high pressure will continue to dominate the waters between the front and Baja California Norte.