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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Sep 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Marie is centered near 25.1N 125.9W at 08/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas have lowered to near 17 ft. Latest satellite imagery continue to show a sheared Marie, with its center having become exposed to the northwest of scattered moderate convection in the SE quadrant from 19N to 25N between 121W and 126W. Marie is forecast to turn to the northwest over the next couple of days, and is forecast to become a post- tropical remnant low by Wed. Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast of the Baja California Peninsula and southern California for the next couple of days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 88W north of 04N. It is moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 14N between 79W and 94W. A tropical wave has its axis along 109W from 05N to 18N. It is moving westward at about 10 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is from 06N to 16N between 102W and 117W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 08N83W to 14N109W to 10N126W and to beyond 09N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 14N west of 117W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weak pressure gradient across the region due to the presence of Tropical Storm Marie to the west of the Baja California Peninsula is supporting mainly gentle to moderate NW winds off Baja and light to gentle winds along with slight seas in the Gulf of California. A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of southwestern Mexico with potential to develop into a tropical cyclone later in the week is supporting moderate to fresh winds off Jalisco and south of the Revillagigedo Islands. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds are pulsing in Tehuantepec. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds are expected to briefly develop over the nearshore waters of Baja California and over some sections of the Gulf of California tonight into Tue as Tropical Storm Marie, near 25.1N 125.9W at 8 PM PDT, moves farther away from the forecast waters. Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles southwest of southwestern Mexico remain disorganized. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system moves generally west- northwestward at 10 to 15 kt. Regardless of development, this system may bring moderate to fresh winds to the offshore waters of Jalisco and the Revillagigedo Islands tonight through Wed night. Otherwise, the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec is expected to begin tonight and pulse to strong speeds through Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeast to east winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas there are 5 to 7 ft in south to southwest swell. Light to gentle winds along with moderate seas are elsewhere over these waters. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong easterly winds, and moderate to rough seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sat. High pressure building north of the area will lead to near gale speeds wind Wed and Wed night. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Tue through Wed night, then diminishing some afterward. Moderate or lighter winds are expected elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Marie. Outside from marine impacts attributed to Marie over the northeast portion of this part of the region, fresh northeast to east winds along with seas of 7 to 10 ft in east swell are over the far western waters north of 20N and west of about 135W. These conditions are forecast to merge with those associated to Tropical Storm Marie in about 18 hours. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds along with seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific, with the exception of higher seas of 6 to 9 ft in north to northeast swell generated by Tropical Storm Marie over the waters north of 13N between 118W and 135W. For the forecast, Marie will move to 25.8N 126.9W Tue morning, become post-tropical and move to 27.2N 127.9W Tue evening, weaken to a remnant low near 29.1N 129.1W Wed morning, 31.3N 130.4W Wed evening, 33.4N 132.0W Thu morning, and dissipate Thu evening. Long-period northwest to north swell is merging with cross- equatorial Southern Hemispheric swell south of about 2N and between 110W and 125W. This swell area is forecast to expand eastward through Wed as the primary swell direction becomes northwest to north, Seas from this swell are expected to be 7 to 9 ft. To the east, an area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms associated with a trough of low pressure is located several hundred nautical miles south-southwest of southwestern Mexico. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form later this week while the system generally west-northwestward.