Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jun 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 88W/89W, south of 16N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 12N between 87W and 90W, and near the southern end of the wave axis from 03N to 06N between 85W and 88W. A tropical wave is along 97W, south of 15N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 02N to 10N between 90W and 100W, and from 10N to 16N between 100W and 110W. A tropical wave is along 115W, south of 18N, moving west at 5 to 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 16N between 110W AND 120W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 07N95W to 13N113 to 06N127W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N127W to beyond 06N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical waves, scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 127W and 132W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds N of Cabo San Lazaro, and gentle to moderate winds between Cabo San Lazaro and Cabo San Lucas. Seas are moderate with these winds. In the Gulf of California, light to gentle southerly winds are seen per scatterometer data with slight seas, except near the entrance to the Gulf where seas of 3 to 4 ft in SW swell are noted. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas in SW swell prevail. For the forecast, a ridge will remain in place across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California promoting gentle to moderate northerly winds, except for locally fresh speeds pulsing at night through the weekend. Looking ahead, a surface trough moving across the Bay of Campeche will force fresh to strong northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late Tue night into Wed, with seas building to 8 or 9 ft by Wed night. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate southerly winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft are found south of 03N. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in SW swell prevail. Higher winds are noted near the convective activity. For the forecast, gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas will prevail across the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through early next week. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are expected in the Papagayo region most of the forecast period. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in southwest swell are forecast elsewhere through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge dominate most of the forecast region N of 15N and W of 110W, supporting gentle to moderate winds with the exception of moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds across the trade wind zone, particularly W of 130W. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, additional pulses of SW swell will continue to propagate across the forecast waters E of 120W generating moderate to locally rough seas. Otherwise, little changes are expected in winds and seas through the upcoming weekend and into early next week as a ridge remains in control of the weather pattern across the area. Tropical cyclone formation is not expected during the next 7 days.