Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jul 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 91W to the north of 02N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Convection is described below in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section. A tropical wave is analyzed along 113W, from 02N to 16N, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Convection is described below in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section. A tropical wave is analyzed along 139W from 01N to 16N, moving westward at around 10-15 kt. Convection is described below in the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 06N122W. The ITCZ is from 06N122W to 05N137W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is active within 300 nm S of the monsoon trough and E of 100W, and within 150 nm on either side of the trough between 100W-130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh NE winds prevail across the waters off Baja California. Latest altimeter satellite pass indicated seas were up to 8 ft in the waters farther offshore, due to NW swell. Farther south, the scatterometer pass confirmed strong to near- gale force winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are estimated to be 6-8 ft. Gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas are evident elsewhere, except for 1-3 ft seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, ridging off Baja California is weakening as pressure lowers over the Colorado River Valley, allowing winds to diminish today, although NW swell to 8 ft will persist beyond 90 nm offshore through tonight. The pattern will also support fresh to strong S winds across the northern Gulf of California tonight through Fri night. Farther south, pulses of fresh to strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early next week. An area of low pressure is expected to form late this weekend or early next week several hundred miles south- southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development thereafter, and there is a medium chance a tropical depression could form next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, the lowering pressure may induce at least fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas offshore of Oaxaca and Chiapas by Sun night, and off Guerrero by Mon night. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A recent scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh NE to E gap winds persist across the Papagayo region and Nicaragua, extending offshore to near 90W. Seas are estimated to be 6-7 ft. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere to the N of 08N. Moderate SE winds are across the offshore waters of the Galapagos Islands, where seas are 5-7 ft in SW swell. Light to gentle winds are across the remainder of the waters, along with 4-6 ft mainly in SW swell. For the forecast, the fresh to strong NE-E gap winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo region through late Sun, mainly at night and into the morning hours. Gentle to moderate breezes and slight to moderate seas will persist elsewhere. An area of low pressure is expected to form late this weekend or early next week several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development thereafter, and there is a medium chance a tropical depression could form next week while the system moves generally west- northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, the lowering pressure may induce at least fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas offshore El Salvador and Guatemala by Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge dominates the waters north of 15N, supporting moderate NE winds and 5-7 ft seas in a mix of N and SW swell. Fresh NE winds and seas 7-8 ft are also noted farther S near the tropical wave near 139W. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere. Long period SW swell to 8 ft is reaching 04N between 90W and 120W. Combined seas are mainly 5-7 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh winds and rough seas will accompany the tropical wave near 139W at it moves westward at 10-15 kt, past 140W tonight. Farther north, swell of 8-9 ft will persist north of 25N to the east of 125W into Fri. Farther south, large swell to 7-8 ft will persist south of 05N or so between 95W and 120W through Fri. A broad area of low pressure may become better organized this weekend into early next week over the tropical eastern Pacific west of 130W, although chances of tropical cyclone development remain low through the next seven days.