Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon May 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N82W to 06N88W to 09N99W. The ITCZ continues from 09N99W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted E of 81W, and from 06N to 11N between 112W and 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec along with seas in the 5-87ft range. Moderate to SW gap winds are in the northern Gulf of California. Seas are 3 ft or less across the Gulf of California. Seas of 4-6 ft in mainly NW swell dominate the remainder of the waters, along with gentle winds, except moderate to fresh winds near Cabo San Lucas. Meanwhile, plentiful moisture is being advected from the deep tropics south of the Hawaiian Islands to across the north- central discussion waters and over Baja California to the SW United States. For the forecast, fresh to strong SW winds and moderate seas are expected in the northern Gulf of California tonight. Winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds offshore Baja California tonight as a ridge builds and tightens the pressure gradient, locally strong near Cabo San Lucas at times. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are expected through the week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate winds are over the Gulf of Papagayo, extending downstream to near 90W. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are moderate in S-SW swell across the waters, except slight offshore Colombia. For the forecast, fresh easterly winds are expected in the Papagayo region through Tue night, and then again starting Thu night, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through much of the week. A set of SW swell may build seas to locally rough south of the Galapagos Islands Fri and Fri night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong upper-level winds are advecting abundant multilayer clouds across the NW and N waters into Baja California Norte and NW Mexico. A ridge dominates the forecast waters north of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 20N between 130W and 140W. Seas are 6-8 ft over these waters. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will support fresh trades, locally strong at times, north of the ITCZ to about 20N and west of 120W through the week, with seas of 6-9 ft across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere through the week, except seas building to rough south of the Equator by mid-week in southerly swell.