Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jul 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Offshore of Southwestern Mexico (EP96): A tropical wave is producing a large area of disorganized thunderstorms and gusty winds a couple of hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 13N to 16N between 101W and 108W. Winds are currently 20 to 30 kt with seas of 8 to 12 ft. This system is gradually becoming better organized, and environmental conditions appear favorable for continued development. A tropical depression is expected to form during the next day or so while the system moves generally west- northwestward, staying offshore of the coast of Mexico. Expect strong winds and rough seas near the Revillagigedo Islands by Tue night, as the low pressure makes its closest point of approach to the south of the islands. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours. Please read the latest Tropical Weather Outlook issued by the National Hurricane Center at www.hurricanes.gov for further details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 88.5W, north of 01N to across portions of El Salvador and western Honduras into the Yucatan Peninsula, moving quickly westward at 20 to 25 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 11N to 13.5N between 87W and 93W. The axis of a tropical wave is near 104.5W, from 03N northward to the coast of SW Mexico in Colima, moving westward at around 10 to 15 kt. Any nearby convection is described in the Special Features section regarding the potential for tropical cyclone formation. The axis of a tropical wave is along 134.5W from 04N to 20N, moving slowly westward at around 5 kt. A weak low pressure area that was previously analyzed along the tropical wave has dissipated within that last few hours. Any nearby convection is described below in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N74W to 09N88W. Segments of the ITCZ are from 07.5N89W to 10N103.5W, then from 10N105W to 05N122W to 13N133W, then from 13.5N135W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is active within 240 nm south of the ITCZ west of 105W. A surface trough is analyzed from 17N127W to 10N126.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 17N to 25N between 123W and 129W, and from 11N to 17N between 129W and 133W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... In addition to the winds and seas described in the Special Features section off southwest Mexico, fresh to strong gap winds are across the Gulf of Tehuantepec as seen by a recent OSCAT scatterometer pass. Broad ridging is evident elsewhere, including off Baja California, supporting gentle to moderate breezes and 3-5 ft seas elsewhere, except light breezes and 1-3 ft seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, in addition to the impacts of the developing low pressure described in the Special Features section above, the ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through early Thu, allowing for gentle to moderate NW to N winds to continue along with moderate seas in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle winds will prevail through tonight, increasing to moderate to locally fresh in the central and northern portions midweek. Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the week and into the upcoming weekend, strongest during the late night and early morning hours, with locally rough seas at times. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form later this week several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward well offshore of Mexico. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo as seen by a recent ASCAT scatterometer pass, with moderate to fresh easterly winds elsewhere from 10N to 13N. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. Moderate seas dominate the waters. Active convection over the offshore waters of El Salvador and Guatemala are associated with a tropical wave and are described above, with locally higher winds and seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region mainly at night through at least Sat night along with moderate to locally rough seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands where slight seas are expected. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Moderate to fresh NE winds are near the northern portion of a tropical wave at 134.5W along with locally rough seas. Gentle to moderate winds 4-6 ft prevail elsewhere, except for moderate to fresh SE winds and 5-7 ft seas south of 07N between 100W and 120W. A surface trough is analyzed north of the ITCZ as described with convection above. For the forecast, winds and seas associated with the tropical wave near 134.5W diminish through today. NE winds will freshen with seas 5-7 ft thereafter north of 15N and west of 125W between broad low pressure along the monsoon trough riding farther north. Elsewhere, the main issue will be the development and track of the low pressure described in the Special Features section above. Expect tropical cyclone development with this low pressure through mid week as it moves northwest of the Revillagigedo Islands. Farther south, moderate to fresh SE winds and 5-7 ft seas will cross the Equator between 100W and 120W and reach as far north as 10N through mid week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form later this week several hundred nautical miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression could form by the end of the weekend while it moves generally west- northwestward well offshore of Mexico.