Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Nov 19 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N81W to 08N118W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection prevails across the Panama Canal. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the ITCZ and W of 132W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A weakening cold front extends from 28N111W to 24N119W. Behind the front, a surface trough is analyzed from 30N118W to 27N125W. Scattered showers are ongoing across the Baja California and its offshore waters, as well as the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh NW winds prevail behind the front/trough with rough seas in long-period NW swell. In the northern Gulf of California, the front is supporting moderate to fresh SW winds and moderate seas. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient elsewhere support mainly gentle winds with slight to moderate seas in NW swell, except for slight seas in the remainder Gulf of California. For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move SE while gradually weakening, and dissipate N of Cabo San Lazaro by tonight. Rough seas in the wake of the front will continue to propagate across the outer offshore waters N of Cabo San Lazaro through Thu morning. A new cold front is forecast to enter the Baja California Norte offshore waters Thu night followed by large swell bringing rough seas to the waters N of Cabo San Lucas through Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh NE winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo and downwind to near 89W along with moderate seas. Elsewhere across the Central America offshore waters, light to gentle winds and slight seas prevail, except for moderate N winds in the Gulf of Panama. Between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands, moderate S winds prevail with moderate seas. Scattered moderate to strong convection prevails in the Panama Canal due to the proximity of the monsoon trough to the N. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo through Sun night. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are forecast elsewhere through the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A weakening cold front extends from 28N111W to 24N119W. Behind the front, a surface trough is analyzed from 30N118W to 27N125W. Moderate to fresh NW winds behind the front/trough between 120W and 130W. Seas are rough in long-period NW swell N of 24N between 118W and 130W. A surface ridge is across the remainder subtropical waters behind the fronts, supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds elsewhere between the ITCZ and 25N to the W of 125W. For the forecast, the cold front will move SE while gradually weakening, and dissipate tonight. The swell associated with the front will propagate across much of the waters W of Baja California before subsiding Thu. High pressure in the wake of the front will support fresh to strong winds and rough seas in the westernmost trade wind zone through Thu. The next cold front is expected to reach the NW waters tonight into Thu followed by fresh NW to N winds and rough seas. Then, a low pressure system is expected to develop along the frontal boundary offshore California. The low pressure is forecast to move southward entering the NE forecast waters by Fri night. Strong winds and rough to very rough seas could be associated with the low.