Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Aug 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Hernan is centered near 15.4N 132.1W at 14/1500 UTC, moving south at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are around 12 ft or 4 m. Hernan has scattered moderate and isolated strong convection within 180 NM in the NE semicircle. Hernan is forecast to weaken to a tropical depression today and a post-tropical cyclone early Saturday.Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Hernan NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 97W north of the Equator to southern Mexico just west of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, moving west around 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from coastal Costa Rica at 09N83W to 08N104W. The ITCZ begins there and extends to 12N128W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted north of 04N east of 83W, from 04N-12N between 91W-107W, from 03N-15N between 113W-129W, and from 17N-21N between 125W-129W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to locally strong N gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning. Elsewhere winds are moderate or weaker. Sea are 5-7 ft over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, 4-6 ft over the remaining Pacific waters, and 1-4 ft over the Gulf of California. No significant deep convection is occurring. For the forecast, high pressure over the Gulf of America will continue to force pulses of fresh to strong N winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec for the next several days. Additionally, moderate to fresh NW winds are forecast off of the Baja California peninsula through the weekend. Elsewhere, winds and seas should remain quiescent until at least early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds are observed this morning over the Gulf of Papagayo region with seas 5-7 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker across forecast waters. Seas are 3-7 ft in SW swell over the remainder of forecast waters. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted north of 04N east of 83W. For the forecast, high pressure over the W Caribbean is contributing toward fresh to strong E gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region through Sun night before weakening early next week. Looking ahead, large S swell should begin impacting the equatorial waters on Mon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see Special Features section above for more on Tropical Storm Hernan. Surface ridging extends from 30N125W to 20N112W to 14N100W. Aside from conditions associated with Hernan, the trades north of the ITCZ/monsoon trough are moderate or weaker and S to SW winds are also moderate or weaker. Long-period SW swell with seas of 8-9 ft are occurring south of 03N west of 95W. Elsewhere seas are 6-7 ft in mixed SW and NE swell. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 17N-21N between 125W-129W in association with an upper-level trough. For the forecast, Hernan will weaken to a tropical depression near 15.4N 133.0W this evening, become a remnant low and move to 15.1N 134.5W Sat morning, 15.0N 136.6W Sat evening, 14.9N 138.9W Sun morning, 15.1N 141.1W Sun evening, and dissipate Mon morning. An area of low pressure could form several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico early next week. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter while the system moves westward or west-northwestward well south of Mexico. Additionally, another area of low pressure could form well to the west-southwest of the southern tip of the Baja California Peninsula early next week. Gradual additional development of this system is possible thereafter while it moves generally westward.