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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Fri Jun 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Amanda is centered near 13.3N 132.0W at 05/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 40 kt with gusts to 50 kt. Peak seas are currently around 4.5 m or 13-14 ft. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 60 nm in the E semicircle, 90 nm in the SW quadrant, and 150 nm in the NW quadrant. Amanda is moving toward the west-northwest and this motion is expected to continue into Fri. A turn towards the west and then southwest at a slower forecast speed is anticipated by this weekend. Little change in strength is forecast during the next day or so followed by gradual weakening trend this weekend. Amanda is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low by early next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Amanda NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave that was previously analyzed along 94W is no longer discernible as it is now part of the broad low pressure flow around the monsoon trough off southern and SW Mexico. Any nearby convection is described with the monsoon trough below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10.5N86W near the Gulf of Papagayo to 09N92W to 13.5N104W to 09.5N121W to 11.5N128W, then resumes SW of Tropical Storm Amanda near 10N134W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 300 nm either side of the axis E of 105W, and within 210 nm either side of the axis between 105W and 128W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 10N between 136W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge, anchored by a 1028 mb high pressure center located near 36N133W, extends southeastward and into the Baja California waters to SE of the Revillagigedo Islands along 108W. This pattern is producing gentle to moderate NW winds across the Baja Norte waters north of Punta Eugenia, and moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds across the Baja Sur waters to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas across these waters are 5 to 7 ft in mixed NW and SW swell, except 7 to 9 ft to the W-NW of Isla Guadalupe in new N-NW swell. Inside the Gulf of California, light winds prevail, with seas of 1 to 3 ft, except seas of 4 to 5 ft in SW swell near the entrance to the Gulf. Across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, light to gentle winds dominate, with moderate seas of mainly 6 to 7 ft, primarily in SW swell. Scattered showers and thunderstorms continue across the waters beyond 60 nm of shore between Tehuantepec and Michoacan as described above. For the forecast, high pressure well NW of the area extending a broad ridge into the Baja waters will weaken slightly through early next week as the high drifts to the W. This pattern will support gentle to moderate NW to N winds through Fri night, then diminish slightly through Sun, except persisting to fresh near Cabo San Lucas, pulsing to strong Sun night into early next week. Rough seas in building NW swell, will propagate across the outer offshore waters N of Punta Eugenia through early next week. Southerly winds may pulse to fresh to strong in the Gulf of California N of 30N Fri night and Sat night. A trough of low pressure located well offshore of southwestern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next several days while it moves slowly northward or north- northeastward near the coast of southern Mexico. Currently, this system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in 7 days. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak surface pressure pattern continues across the Gulf of America and western Caribbean today. This pattern is yielding light to gentle winds over the Central American offshore waters, with gentle to moderate S-SW winds from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Seas of 5 to 7 ft in building SW swell prevail across the area waters, except 6 to 8 ft from offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands. Scattered thunderstorms remain active offshore of much of the area near the monsoon trough as described above with winds and seas possible in and near any activity. For the forecast, SW swell will continue to propagate across the regional waters, maintaining moderate to rough seas through Sat morning, with highest seas around 8 ft expected between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. A new set of larger SW swell is expected to arrive by Sat night, propagating NE into early next week and building seas to 7 to 10 ft at a minimum. Otherwise, a trough of low pressure offshore of Central America is producing some disorganized shower and thunderstorm activity as described above. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the next several days while it moves slowly northward. Regardless of development, monsoonal SW to W winds will increase south of the monsoon trough over the weekend. Currently, this system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation in 7 days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Amanda located well SW of Baja California Sur. High pressure dominates the waters N of 15N and W of 110W, extending southeastward to SE of the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and T.S. Amanda is promoting moderate to fresh NE to E winds across most of this area. Seas over these waters and elsewhere N of 10N are in the 6 to 10 ft range in a mix of trade wind waves and NW to N swell. Mainly gentle winds are S of the monsoon trough and W of 120W, with moderate winds S of the monsoon trough and E of 120W, locally fresh between 90W and 100W. Seas are 6 to 7 ft S of 10N and W of 120W, and 7 to 9 ft in S-SW swell elsewhere. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Amanda will move to 13.5N 132.9W Fri morning, 13.4N 133.9W Fri evening, 13.0N 134.5W Sat morning, 12.6N 134.9W Sat evening, weaken to a tropical depression near 12.1N 135.4W Sun morning, and become a remnant low and move to 11.7N 136.1W Sun evening. Amanda will change little in intensity as it moves to 11.3N 137.5W late Mon. The high pressure will drift W and weaken slightly across the area waters Fri through the weekend as Tropical Storm Amanda tracks toward the NW then W over the western portion of the area, resulting in gradually diminishing winds across the trade wind zone. Little change is expected elsewhere through Sat morning, before large S to SW reaches the equator and moves through the regional waters through early next week, reaching all the way to 20N. Meanwhile, northerly swell in the N-central waters with seas of 7 to 10 ft will linger for the next several days. Looking ahead, monsoonal southerly winds are forecast to increase to at least fresh to strong E of 110W this weekend into early next week with possible tropical cyclone formation off both southern Mexico and off portions of Central America.