Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Feb 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure across the eastern slopes of Mexico and lower pressure associated with the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting gale-force northerly winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec along with peak seas to 11 ft. These conditions are forecast to continue through tonight. Rough seas will accompany these winds. Strong to near gale winds will then prevail into early next week. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Fresh to strong northeast to winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through the weekend and into early next week. Winds may reach minimal gale-force during the weekend due to a tightened pressure gradient between strong high pressure to the north and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough. Rough seas will accompany these winds. Significant Northwest Swell Event: Rough seas of 12 ft or greater are over the waters roughly north of 20N between 120W and 132W. Seas within this area are peaking to 14 ft north of 27N between 124W and 129W. These seas will gradually subside to just below 12 ft today. Afterward, a large area of seas 8 ft or greater with this swell will cover much of the waters west of about 110W, with the remnant seas decaying by early next week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N79W to 03N103W. The ITCZ continues from that point to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the boundaries between 107W and 114W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the Special Features section above for details. Aside from the Gale Warning area, light to gentle north to northeast winds are E of 110W. Gentle to moderate northwest to north winds are near the southern tip of the Baja California between 20N-26N. Light and weaker winds are elsewhere in the Gulf of California. Moderate seas prevail across the offshore mexican waters except N of 24N, where northwest swell is spreading across the area. Slight seas prevail across the Gulf of California. For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, the long- period northwest swell will spread across the waters west of 100W during the weekend before decaying. Another set of long- period northwest swell may arrive off Baja California Norte early next week, but it is not expected to be as widespread as the current one. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR...Corrected A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Papagayo. Please see the Special Features section above for details. Aside from the Gulf of Papagayo, fresh to strong winds and rough seas are over the far offshore waters of Guatemala associated with the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Papagayo, moderate to fresh northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Panama will increase to fresh to strong speeds Sat afternoon and continue to late on Mon. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A Significant NW swell prevails over the NW waters. Please see the Special Features section above for more details. A 1025 mb high center is analyzed at 30N129W, with an associated ridge extending southeastward to near 20N118W. Latest scatterometer satellite data depicts light to gentle anticyclone near the high center north of 20N and west of 120W. The pressure gradient between the high center and ridge and relatively lower pressures to the south with the ITCZ is producing fresh to strong trades from 07N to 20N west of 120W. Seas over these waters are rough in long-period northwest swell. Fresh east winds generated from the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event are spreading westward reaching to near 110W as noted in the latest scatterometer satellite data pass over those waters. For the forecast, aside from the large west to northwest swell described in the Special Features, high pressure will build over the waters north of 20N through the weekend and into early next week. The pressure gradient will tighten between the high pressure and relatively lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ leading to an expansion of the fresh to strong trades from 07N to 20N and west of 110W. These winds are forecast to diminish some early next week as another cold front impacts the NW part of the discussion domain. The front may move to the southeast of 30N140W early next week ushering in fresh to strong winds and a reinforcing set of northwest swell over the NW corner of the discussion area. Meanwhile, rough seas are possible over the open waters west of the Gulf of Papagayo and south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the weekend.