Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu May 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10.5N74W to 08N78W to 09.5N86W to 04.5N97W. The ITCZ extends from 06N101W to 06N127W, then resumes W of a surface trough from 04N133W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 02.5N to 09N E of 101W, from 08.5N to 11.5N between 102W and 110W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 00N to 10.5N between 119W and 139W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge across the region extends southeastward across the waters W of 110W, to the Revillagigedo Islands. Troughing extends across western Mexico. Recent satellite scatterometer winds show that this pressure pattern is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds offshore Baja California north of Cabo San Lazaro, and gentle to moderate winds elsewhere across the Baja waters. Seas across these Baja waters are 5 to 7 ft in mixed NW and SW swell. Scatterometer data also showed moderate to locally fresh W to SW gap winds across the northern Gulf of California, and gentle to moderate NW winds across the remainder of the Gulf. Seas are 2 to 4 ft and building across the northern Gulf and 2 to 3 ft elsewhere. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere from Baja Sur to Puerto Angel, where seas are 5 to 6 ft in SW swell. N to NE gap winds have begun to pulse to near 30 kt across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and extend offshore to near 14N, where seas are 6 to 9 ft. For the forecast, strong northerly gap winds will continue to pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri due to high pressure across NE Mexico and the western Gulf of America. Seas will peak around 10 ft with these peak winds. Fresh W to SW gap winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California tonight through Thu morning as a trough briefly deepens, with similar conditions expected again each night through Sun night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh NW winds are expected across the offshore waters of Baja California through Fri as high pressure well to the NW gradually builds into the area. Winds will increase to fresh to strong well offshore Baja California Norte this weekend, and mostly fresh across the remaining Baja waters, then diminish Mon. Moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell will dominate the offshore waters today, gradually building to 8-9 ft offshore Baja California Norte early Fri night, then to 9-15 ft early Sun through midday Mon. Seas of 8 ft or greater are expected to spread southward to the Revillagigedo Islands by early Tue. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent satellite scatterometer data showed fresh to locally strong easterly gap winds extend offshore of southern Nicaragua and the Papagayo region to 88W. Seas are 6-7 ft there. Moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds prevail across the Gulf of Panama and extends southward to Punta Mala, where seas are 3 to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the area waters, with seas of 4-6 ft in SW swell, except 5-7 ft in mixed southerly swell S of the Equator. Numerous strong thunderstorms are shifting westward off the coast of Colombia and into the approach to the Gulf of Panama, while scattered showers and thunderstorms extend from 02.5N northward into the coastal waters of western Panama and southeastern Cost Rica. For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse to locally strong offshore of the Papagayo region through the rest of the week, mainly at night into the early morning hours, with building seas to locally rough during those times. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama to the Azuero Peninsula at night. Showers and thunderstorms across the coastal waters of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica will gradually shift westward and diminish across the area through Thu, then develop again each evening through night through Sat. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1030 mb high pressure just N of the area near 38N139W extends a ridge southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands, and dominates the waters N of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ, including an embedded surface trough from 12N122W to 04N131W, supports moderate to fresh NE to E trades across most of the waters N of the ITCZ and W of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere across the open waters, including S of the ITCZ. Seas are 6-8 ft in southerly swell S of 05N between 100W and 125W. Seas are 7-9 ft in mixed swells from roughly 10N to 27N to the W of 128W, and from 05N to 21N between 119W and 130W. Active convection continues between 120W and 135W, near portions of the ITCZ and the surface trough as described above. For the forecast, high pressure NW of the area will continue to build east and southeastward across the region tonight through Sun, then shift W and weaken early next week. This pattern will support continued fresh trade winds N of the ITCZ and W of 120W, with seas of 8-9 ft mainly W of 125W, and 6-7 ft between 118W and 125W. N winds are expected to strengthen slightly to fresh to strong across the Baja Norte waters and expand across the NE and N-central waters by the weekend before diminishing late Mon through Tue. Seas across the northeast waters will begin to build late Fri in northerly swell, building to 8 to 10 ft Sat morning, and to 10-15 ft midday Sun through midday Mon. Rough seas to around 8 ft in southerly swell will continue across the far southwestern waters to near the Equator and W of 100W today and then build to 8-9 ft late Fri through the weekend in mixed SE and S swell.