Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Jul 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Genevieve is centered near 20.6N 123.5W at 30/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 980 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are near 33 ft or 10 m. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 60 nm in the NE quadrant, 120 nm in the S semicircle, and 180 nm in the NW semicircle. Genevieve is moving toward the west-northwest, and this general motion is expected to continue during the next several days. Gradual weakening is forecast during the next few days, and Genevieve is expected to weaken to a tropical storm later today and become a remnant low late this weekend. Swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the Baja California Peninsula and Southern California. These swells will persist for the next several days, and are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?ripCurrents Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Genevieve NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is moving into the western Caribbean Sea just east of the discussion waters along 76W over portions of western Colombia, moving westward at around 20 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted out ahead of the wave from 02N to 10N to the east of 83W. A tropical wave is along 98W, extending from 01N to 15N near the coast of Oaxaca, Mexico, moving westward around 20 kt. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09N to 15N between 98W and 104W. A tropical wave is along 110W, from 01N to 19N near the Revillagigedo Islands, moving westward around 5 to 10 kt. Isolated to widely scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 24N between 105W and 115W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W near the Gulf of Papagayo to 05N98W to 15N118W, then resumes SSW of Genevieve from 15N125W to beyond 06.5N140W. Other than the convection mentioned above, Isolated to widely scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 240 nm either side of the monsoon trough between 130W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features Section above for details on Hurricane Genevieve which continues to move away from the outer offshore waters of Baja California. Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information about additional convection in the region. Swells from Hurricane Genevieve are still bringing some rough seas to about 10 ft to the outer offshore waters of Baja California Sur. Scattered convection, likely inducing locally gusty winds, has moved off the Sinaloan coast into the southern Gulf of California and adjacent waters to the south, also likely enhanced by the northern portion of the tropical wave along 110W. Moderate to locally fresh N gap winds are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early this morning. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail. Seas are slight in the Gulf of California and moderate in the remaining offshore waters. For the forecast, rough seas in the outer offshore waters W of Baja California will subside later today. Increasing NW swell may lead to rough seas again offshore Baja California Norte Sun night and Mon. Fresh to locally strong gap winds are likely in the Gulf of Tehuantepec tonight, then moderate to fresh Fri night. Moderate to fresh NW winds are expected to pulse tonight and Fri night nearshore Baja California as high pressure builds southward west of the Peninsula. Elsewhere, Fresh SE to S winds may pulse nightly in the northern Gulf of California beginning tonight, possibly to strong Sat night. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Tropical Waves section above for information about convection in the region. High pressure northeast of the area is forcing strong easterly gap winds and resultant seas of 7 to 9 ft across the Gulf of Papagayo region, with moderate to fresh northerly gap winds and 5 to 7 ft seas in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through Sun, with occasionally rough seas. Pulsing moderate to locally fresh N winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama tonight. Southerly winds may freshen offshore southern Colombia and from Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands tonight and Fri. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected across the remainder of the waters through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Genevieve. For waters not being impacted by Hurricane Genevieve, high pressure is centered just northwest of the area. The pressure pattern between the high and Genevieve is supporting moderate to fresh NE trades to the north and west of Genevieve, mainly across the waters north of 15N and west of 120W. Seas in this region have built to 7 to 10 ft well away from Genevieve. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are found south of the Equator and west of 100W. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere. Moderate seas dominate the remainder of the waters. For the forecast, Hurricane Genevieve will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.0N 125.5W this evening, move to 21.7N 128.1W Fri morning, 22.5N 130.7W Fri evening, 23.3N 133.6W Sat morning, 24.2N 136.6W Sat evening, and become post-tropical and move to 25.1N 139.4W Sun morning. Genevieve will weaken to a remnant low west of the discussion waters near 27.2N 143.9W early Mon. Away from Genevieve, little change in marine conditions is forecast through the weekend. Fresh and rough northerly swell off California is likely to push southward into the waters off Baja California Norte north of 27N and east of 130W by the end of the weekend into early next week. Looking ahead, new large southerly swell may build south of the Equator and west of 100W beginning Tue night.