Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu Oct 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0305 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rachel is centered near 21.4N 122.9W at 08/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Peak seas are near 28 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 18N to 23N and between 121W to 124W. The WNW is expected to continue over the next day or so. Rachel is then forecast to slow down before making a sharp turn to the northeast by the end of the week. Gradual weakening is forecast over the next few days. Swells partly generated by Rachel will build along the coast of Southern California and northern Baja California through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Tropical Storm Simon is centered near 15.6N 102.5W at 08/0300 UTC, moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1002 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 45 kt with gusts to 55 kt. Peak seas are around 14 ft. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is observed from 14N to 19N and between 99W and 106W. The WNW motion is expected to continue through Thursday, followed by a turn toward the northwest and north on Friday. On the forecast track, the center of Simon is expected to remain south of Mexico through Friday, but approach the coast of southwestern Mexico on Saturday. Rapid strengthening is forecast, and Simon is expected to become a major hurricane by late Friday or early Saturday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Rachel NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough enters the eastern Pacific through the coast of Costa Rica near 11N86W to 13N97W and then from 11N114W to 08N125W to beyond 11N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 08N to 14N and between 101W and 111W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Simon offshore of southern Mexico. Away from Tropical Storm Simon, a weak pressure gradient dominates the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters supporting moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.8N 123.7W Thu morning, move to 22.3N 124.8W Thu evening, 22.6N 124.9W Fri morning, 23.3N 123.5W Fri evening, 24.9N 120.9W Sat morning, and 28.0N 118.2W Sat evening. Rachel should reach the offshore zones off of Baja California Norte on Sat and become post-tropical. Finally, the system is forecast to move across Baja California Norte early Sun just south of the California- Mexico border and move inland to near 36.4N 113.0W late Sun. Tropical Storm Simon will slowly be traversing and impacting the offshore zones off of southern Mexico for the next five days. Simon will move to 15.8N 103.6W Thu morning, strengthen to a hurricane near 16.1N 104.6W Thu evening, 16.4N 105.3W Fri morning, 16.9N 105.5W Fri evening, 17.8N 105.6W Sat morning, and 18.9N 105.5W Sat evening. Simon will change little in intensity as it moves to the 21.6N 105.8W late Sun. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak pressure gradient persists across the offshore waters of Central America and Colombia, supporting light to gentle winds and moderate seas. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and moderate seas are noted between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands. For the forecast, weak high pressure north of the area will support moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas across much of the forecast waters through at the middle of next week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is forecast to form south of the coast of Guatemala during the early portion of next week. Environmental conditions appear conducive for some gradual development of this system thereafter while it moves generally west-northwestward at around 10 kt. The system has a low chance of formation in the next 7 days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Rachel located over the NE waters. Outside of the influence of Hurricane Rachel, a weak high pressure supports moderate or weaker winds across forecast waters. Large long-period SW swell is present across the southern border between 95W-120W. Elsewhere, seas are 5-7 ft in mixed swell. For the forecast, Hurricane Rachel is near 21.4N 122.9W at 8 PM PDT, and is moving west-northwest at 6 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 982 mb. Rachel will weaken to a tropical storm near 21.8N 123.7W Thu morning, move to 22.3N 124.8W Thu evening, 22.6N 124.9W Fri morning, 23.3N 123.5W Fri evening, 24.9N 120.9W Sat morning. Rachel should reach the offshore zones off of Baja California Norte on Sat and become post-tropical. Additionally, the large SW swell will continue near our southern border for the next several days. Meanwhile, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas behind a frontal system will affect the northern waters starting Fri and continue into Sun.