Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Mar 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A cold front is forecast to enter the Gulf of America tonight and extend from the Florida Big Bend to the Bay of Campeche by Thu morning. Strong high pressure will build in the wake of the front allowing strong winds to funnel across the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu morning. These winds will rapidly reach near gale-force speeds later in the morning and accelerate to gale speeds early in the afternoon. Rough seas are expected to develop to 10 ft on Thu morning, becoming very rough to 19 ft by Thu evening. Gales will prevail through Fri morning, then winds will gradually reduce in speed and areal coverage through Sat morning. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 05N77W to 01.5N87W to 00N101W. The ITCZ is analyzed from 00N101W to 01S122W and beyond 01N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08S to 05N between 82W and 103W. Similar convection is depicted from 01.5N to 04N between 128W and 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... See the Special Features section for further information on a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A broad surface ridge extends SE from a 1032 mb high NW of the region and covers the offshore waters of Baja California as well as the SW Mexican offshores to Jalisco. The gradient of pressure between low pressure over NE Mexico and the ridge is supporting moderate to fresh NW to N winds across the offshores S of Punta Eugenia and the southern Gulf of California, and fresh to locally strong NW winds offshore Jalisco, Mexico. Seas offshore Jalisco are around 8 ft while 5 to 7 ft seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, strong high pressure will build in the Gulf of America in the wake of a cold front, allowing strong winds to funnel across the Chivela Pass into the Gulf of Tehuantepec Thu morning. These winds will rapidly reach near gale-force speeds later in the morning and accelerate to gale speed early in the afternoon. Rough seas are expected to develop to 10 ft on Thu morning, becoming very rough to 19 ft by Thu evening. Gales will prevail through Fri morning, then winds will gradually reduce in speed and areal coverage through Sat morning. A ridge will continue to build towards Baja California Sur and Cabo Corrientes through Thu, while new NW swell spreads across the waters of Baja California Norte. Fresh to strong NW to N winds are expected between Baja California Sur and Cabo Corrientes, including Las Tres Marias, through this evening. NW to N winds will then freshen inside the Gulf of California this afternoon, reaching fresh to strong speed through the night. Winds will decrease Thu morning as the ridge weakens modestly across the area. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and moderate to rough seas are ongoing across the Papagayo region, extending downwind to approximately 90W. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds and moderate seas prevail across the Gulf of Panama and downstream to 03.5N. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere with moderate seas in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh gap winds will continue to pulse to strong at night across the Papagayo region through Sun as high pressure remains N of the area. Moderate N winds will also pulse to fresh in the Gulf of Panama through Sun. Mainly light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the forecast period. New cross-equatorial SW swell is forecast to move into the Galapagos offshore waters Sat and subside Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure of 1032 mb remains well NW of the region. An associated broad ridge covers the waters N of about 10N and W of 110W. The related pressure gradient is sustaining moderate to fresh NE to E winds from 02N to 21N west of 105W, except fresh to strong from 07N to 19N between 130W and 137W. Altimeter data show rough seas in the 8 to 9 ft range within these winds. N to NW swell is entering the high seas west of the Baja California Norte offshore waters, thus affecting the region N of 29N between 120W and 127W with rough seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas in mixed N and S swell. For the forecast, high pressure NW of Baja California will extend a ridge south and southeastward across the E Pacific subtropical waters. The NW swell W of the Baja California Norte offshores is forecast to subside Thu night. Looking ahead, new cross-equatorial SW swell is expected to move into the Galapagos adjacent waters Sat and subside by Sun evening.