Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Apr 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event across the Tehunatepec region is expected by Mon morning as a ridge builds across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico, behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of America. Winds are forecast to increase to 20 to 30 kt, with seas building to 8 ft by Sun night. Then, winds will further increase to gale force by Mon morning, with seas building to 12 ft on Mon night. Gusty winds to near storm force may occur. These marine conditions are forecast to persist through Tue morning. Seas generated from this gap wind event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 8 ft or greater reaching as far south as 11N Mon night into Tue. Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season occurs in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring in late March or early April. Occasionally, gale-force events may occur as early as September, and as late as May. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N78W to 05N96W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N96W to 07N115W to 04N140W. A second ITCZ is south of the Equator and runs from 03S86W to 03S110W to beyond 02S120W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 08N between 115W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong high pressure over the Great Basin supports moderate to fresh NW winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in the northern Gulf of California. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are present in the offshore waters of Baja California. Seas in these waters are 5 to 7 ft, reaching 8 ft along 120W N of 28N. In the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle winds and moderate seas in S swell prevail. For the forecast, a Gale Warning has been issued for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please, see the Special Features section for more details. Meanwhile, NW swell producing locally rough seas off Baja California Norte will diminish late this morning. Fresh NW to N winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California today with seas up to 5 ft. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds and moderate seas will prevail off Baja California through the forecast period. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A strong high pressure located in the vicinity of Bermuda continues to force fresh to strong easterly trade winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending downstream to 88W. Farther east, gentle to moderate northerly winds and moderate seas are found in the Gulf of Panama. Meanwhile, light to gentle winds and moderate seas dominate the remainder of the offshore waters. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong gap winds are expected during the nighttime and early morning hours in the Papagayo region and downwind to about 88W through the forecast period. Similarly, moderate to fresh northerly winds will pulse nightly in the Gulf of Panama through at least late next week. Residual southerly swell will maintain moderate seas off Ecuador and near the Galapagos Islands this weekend. Afterward, seas should gradually subside next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Abundant cloudiness with embedded showers is noted in the NW corner of the forecast region associated with a surface trough and a diffluent pattern aloft. A ridge dominates the remainder of the area N of 15N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between this system and lower pressures in the deep tropics results in moderate to fresh easterly winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft north of the ITCZ and west of 110W. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, a ridge will support moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate to locally rough seas across the trade wind zone into the middle of next week. A cold front is forecast to reach 30N140W by Sun night. A new set of NW swell will follow the front, forecast to extend from 30N137W to 23N140W by Mon morning. Seas will briefly build to 8 or 9 ft behind the front by Mon night.