Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Aug 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is SW of Tehuantepec with axis near 97W, extending from 05N to 15N, and moving westward at 15-20 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section below. A tropical wave extends from 06N to 16N with axis near 115W, moving westward at 15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section below. A tropical wave extends from 01N to 18N with axis near 135W, moving westward at 15-20 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N78W to 08N85W to 10N95W. Segments of the ITCZ extend from 09N100W to 10N115W, and from 10N120W to 09N125W to 10N135W. Scattered moderate convection is from 03N to 08N east of 90W, and from 10N to 17N between 95W and 125W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... An overnight scatterometer pass confirmed fresh to strong N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, reaching about 13N. Rough seas in the 8-9 ft range are present with the strongest winds. Moderate easterlies are ongoing S of 13N, in the Tehuantepec and Oaxaca outer offshore waters along with moderate seas to 7 ft. High pressure of 1027 mb near 38N139W extends a ridge SE to the Baja California offshore waters, which is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds off the Baja Peninsula along with 4-5 ft seas. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere with slight seas, except moderate seas in SW swell over the remainder SW offshores. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through late Sun. The pressure gradient between high pressure NW of the area and lower pressure over the Colorado River Valley will support fresh to locally strong southerly winds across the southern and northern Gulf of California Sat night into Mon. Elsewhere, a moderate pressure gradient will support mostly gentle to moderate winds across the remainder offshore waters of Mexico. Looking ahead, a tropical wave currently SW of Tehuantepec will move west and reach the Revillagigedo Islands adjacent waters Mon evening through Wed evening, bringing fresh winds and shower activity to the region. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds are across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo to nearly 90W. Seas of 7 to 8 ft accompany the plume of gap winds. In the Gulf of Panama, moderate to locally fresh N winds extends to 06N. Moderate seas in the 4 to 5 ft are over this region. Otherwise, moderate easterlies from the Papagayo gap wind event extends across the Guatemala and El Salvador outer offshores where seas are 5-6 ft. Moderate southerly winds are also across the Ecuador offshores with moderate seas to 5 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere along with moderate seas in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will prevail in the Papagayo region through Wed, reaching near gale-force briefly tonight through late Sun as the Bermuda High shift southward E of the area, thus increasing the pressure gradient over the SW Caribbean. The gap wind event will produce a fetch of moderate to locally fresh easterlies across the outer offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador. Moderate or weaker southerly winds and moderate seas will continue across the offshores between Ecuador and the Galapagos through the forecast period. Moderate northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama at night through Tue evening. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in SW swell are forecast elsewhere through Wed night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1026 mb high near 38N138W extends a ridge across the subtropical E Pacific waters to nearly 115W. The gradient of pressure between this area of high pressure and a tropical wave with axis near 135W is supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds from 10N to 20N W of 135W. Seas over these waters are 7-8 ft. Large SE swell to 8 ft are found over the waters S of 05N between 115W and 135W. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, seas to 8 ft in the western tradewind waters will subside today. Farther south, southerly swell to 8 ft will impact the waters south of 05N and west of 115W through the weekend. Otherwise, showers and thunderstorms associated with the tropical wave near 135W may further organize, likely resulting in the development of a tropical depression early next week as this system moves westward toward the central Pacific. Also, an area of low pressure could form well offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico early or into the middle of next week. Some gradual development of this system is possible thereafter as it moves generally west-northwestward.