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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Feb 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2010 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Large NW Swell: Rough seas in NW swell over the waters N of 07N and W of 116W will be reinforced tonight through Tue with new large NW swell generated behind a cold front entering the NW waters. This new NW swell will increase seas in excess of 12 ft across the NW waters starting this evening, with seas building to 12 to 18 ft N of 24N and W of 131W by Sun evening, then continue to propagate southeastward and cover the area N of 23N and W of 122W with seas of 12 to 20 ft by Mon evening. Seas will then begin to subside to near 12 ft Mon night through Tue evening before new N swell enters the northern waters Wed morning, raising seas above 12 ft again Wed through Thu. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 06.5N77W to 02N92W. The ITCZ extends from 00.5N95W to 03S110.5W to beyond 03.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 07N between 84W and 93W, and from 04N to 08.5N between 135W and 140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 90 nm either side of the ITCZ between 96W and 124W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad and weakening high pressure ridge prevails across the waters W of 110W this afternoon, centered on a 1021 mb high near 27N120W. The pressure gradient between this high and a trough across NW Mexico is producing gentle to moderate northerly winds across the Baja California waters and inside the Gulf of California, with locally fresh winds nearshore and to the SW of Cabo San Lucas. Seas are 6 to 9 ft in NW swell offshore Baja California Norte, and 5 to 7 ft elsewhere N of the Revillagigedo Islands, except 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. Gap winds overnight across the Gulf of Tehuantepec have shut down completely, with light and variable winds now across that area. Gentle N to NW winds with seas of 4 to 5 ft prevail from Cabo Corrientes to Puerto Angel. For the forecast, weak high pressure just W of the area will drift SE through Tue morning and gradually collapse, ahead of a cold front moving into the waters along 140W this afternoon. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse on either side of Baja California Sur to near Cabo Corrientes through Sun night, then again starting Tue. The cold front will approach Baja California Norte Mon night with fresh to strong SW winds ahead of it in the northern Gulf of California, and west of Baja Norte through early Tue. These winds will diminish as the front moves through Baja California and the northern Gulf of California and gradually dissipates on Tue. High pressure building across the region behind the front will produce fresh to strong northerly winds N of 20N Wed through Thu. NW swell moving into the Baja waters this afternoon will peak tonight then gradually subside through early Mon. Larger NW swell will spread across the waters W of 110W Mon through Wed, with seas building to 12 ft and greater N of Punta Eugenia Mon night through Tue evening. Fresh to strong gap winds will return to the Gulf of Tehuantepec Sun night through Tue morning before diminishing. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE winds continue across the Papagayo region extending offshore to near 90W this afternoon, as shown in midday satellite scatterometer data. This is generating seas to near 8 ft offshore. Moderate N winds prevail across the Gulf of Panama and become fresh NE winds to the south then southwest of the Azuero Peninsula, where seas continue at 4 to 6 ft. Moderate or weaker winds, and 3 to 5 ft seas in mixed swell are elsewhere. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and locally rough seas will persist across the Papagayo region through early Sun, then pulse to moderate to fresh into early next week. Fresh to strong winds may return there Tue through Wed as high pressure builds across the NW Caribbean. Moderate N to NE winds will generally continue across the Gulf of Panama through the middle of next week, pulsing to locally fresh each late afternoon into the night. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will change little through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on Significant Very Rough NW Swell forecast for the NW waters. Weakening high pressure prevails across the waters W of 110W this afternoon, centered on a 1021 mb high near 27N120W. A cold front has moved into the NW waters, extending from 30N135W to 28N140W. Fresh to strong northerly winds are building in behind the front, accompanied by new NW swell producing seas of 9 to 10 ft. To the south, moderate to locally fresh trades are noted from roughly 04N to 23N between 118W and 140W, where seas are 6 to 9 ft in NW swell. Mainly moderate or weaker winds prevail elsewhere to the east, with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Seas of 7 to 9 ft in fading NW swell covers the waters N of 238N and W of 115W to the cold front. For the forecast, other than the Significant Large NW Swell expected to enter the NW waters this evening, the cold front will reach from 30N128W to 23N140W by Sun morning, with fresh to strong winds behind it, then reach from 30N123W to 19N140W Mon morning, and from near Punta Eugenia to 14N130W by early Tue, with winds N of 20N behind it diminishing as the front weakens. High pressure will build in the wake of the front and the belt of moderate to fresh trades N of the ITCZ will increase to at least fresh to strong early next week. Active showers and thunderstorms, with rough to very rough seas in NW swell will accompany these increasing trades.