Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Nov 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0855 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 05N94W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N94W to 05N110W and to 06N125W and then from 10N132W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 06N and between 95W and 108W. Similar convection is noted from 10N to 16N and between 115W and 133W and from 02N to 08N and west of 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure centered north of the area continues to support fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 6-8 ft across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured winds up to 25 kt. In the remainder of the basin, a broad subtropical ridge centered off California extends southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands, sustaining moderate or weaker winds. Seas of 7-9 ft are found in the offshore waters of Baja California due to a long-period NW swell. This was confirmed by a recent altimeter satellite pass. Elsewhere, slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas to 8 ft will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed morning. Another gap wind event may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thu night, possibly reaching gale-force into the upcoming weekend. Rough seas in the offshore waters of Baja California will diminish midweek. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds and rough seas approaching 12 ft may reach the offshore waters of Baja California late in the week, associated with a frontal system. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weak 1008 mb low pressure, Invest EP96, located about 130 nm south of El Salvador is producing some showers, located well north of the center. The storm activity has diminished over the past few hours due to strong wind shear. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed fresh to strong winds north of the low, also affecting parts of the nearshore waters of Nicaragua. Moderate seas are occurring north of 10N and east of 91W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4-7 ft in mixed SW and W swell. For the forecast, environmental conditions are forecast to become less favorable for additional development over the next several days as EP96 moves westward or west-southwestward away from land, and the chances of it becoming a short-lived tropical cyclone are decreasing. Regardless, this system is expected to bring periods of heavy rain to portions of Central America over the next day or so. The system has a low chance of development over the next 48 hours. Meanwhile, fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds will funnel across the Papagayo region through midweek. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through the middle of the week. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds, and moderate seas, will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad subtropical ridge centered north of the tropical eastern Pacific dominates the basin, supporting moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough to very rough seas to 13 ft north of 10N and west of 115W. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh SE winds and seas to 9 ft are occurring south of 03N and east of 120W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the surface ridge will amplify some, increasing the trades to fresh from 10N-22N west of 125W tonight into Wed. The large NW swell in the western waters will reach from 20N140W to 20N120W Tue night. The mixed swell over the equatorial waters will persist for the next several days. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will reach our NW border at 30N140W early Wed, bringing with it fresh to strong NW winds and very large seas north of 20N through the end of the week. Reinforcing NW swell may arrive Fri to the NW waters producing rough to very rough seas.