Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sun Jul 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 110W, moving W at 10-15W. Scattered moderate convection is from 08N to 15N between 103W and 112W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 07N96W. The ITCZ extends from 07N96W to 08N109W, then resumes W of the tropical wave near 08N113W to 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 13N and E of 92W, and from 00N to 12N and W of 115W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge extends from the NE Pacific across the Baja California waters to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure over Mexico are supporting moderate to fresh NW winds offshore Baja California. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail, with 5-7 ft seas in merging NW and SW swell, except for light winds and seas 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the surface ridge will strengthens modestly across the area tonight through Tue night, leading to moderate to fresh winds across the Baja California waters. Moderate gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through tonight, then diminish through Mon. Cross-equatorial SW swell will reach the waters off southern Mexico on Mon, building seas to around 7 ft. Expect fresh southerly winds across the northern Gulf of California Tue and Wed becoming strong on Thu. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Scattered moderate convection prevails N of 06N and across Panama, and Costa Rica, and extend northward into the SW Caribbean in the vicinity of the monsoon trough. Fresh to strong NE gap winds continuing across the Papagayo region and extends offshore to 92W, where seas are 5-7 ft. Mostly gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted elsewhere S of 10N, along with seas seas of 4-6 ft in cross-equatorial SW swell. For the forecast, the active thunderstorms across the eastern waters is expected to shift northward today and into the SW Caribbean. Fresh NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to strong each night through midweek leading to rough seas. Large cross-equatorial southerly swell will move into the waters off Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands late Sun through Tue, building seas to 8 to 9 ft, and 6 to 7 ft across much of the remaining waters farther N. The combination of the southerly swell with shorter period seas associated with gap winds will allow combined seas to build to 8 ft offshore of northern Central America Tue through Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge continues across the NE Pacific and north of the area waters tonight, extending southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the remnant low of Douglas, now a 1012 mb low near 25N130W, is producing fresh to strong winds around the low, from 22N to 28N between 128W and 133W. Peak seas are still to 10 ft across the NW quadrant of this low. The ridge draping over this low pressure area continues to support gentle to moderate NE to E winds elsewhere north of 20N and west of 120W, with 6-8 ft seas in a mix of swell. East of 120W, a long plume of fresh E winds and 6-8 ft seas emerging from the Papagayo gap area is reaching as far west as 125W, from 07N to 15N. Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere east of 120W. Wave heights are 6-8 ft there in SW swell. Active thunderstorms continue about the tropical wave along 109W, between 100W and 118W. For the forecast, winds and seas near the remnants of Douglas will gradually diminish through tonight as the remnant low moves NW, weakens and opens into a trough. The ridge will drift southwestward and generally persist across the region through early next week, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds farther south into the tropics. A tropical wave located several hundred miles southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized shower activity. This activity will continue to follow the wave as it moves W across the tropical Pacific.