Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Nov 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0905 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N78W to 09N87W and to 08N93W. The ITCZ stretches from 08N93W to 07N110W and to 09N129W. The monsoon trough resumes from 08N133W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed south of 14N and west of 100W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The tight pressure gradient between a 1023 mb high pressure system over the southern United States and lower pressures in the deep tropics sustains fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 5-7 ft across the Gulf of Tehuantepec basin. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured winds up to 27 kt. Meanwhile, a 1028 mb high pressure system centered near 32N133W extends southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands, supporting moderate or weaker winds across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters. Long-period NW swell is producing seas of 8-12 ft in the offshore waters of Baja California Norte, with the highest seas occurring west of Guadalupe island. Elsewhere, slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh northerly winds and rough seas around 8 ft will pulse to strong to locally near gale-force at night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the remainder of the week. Rough seas in NW swell will continue across the Baja offshore waters, then begin to diminish tonight through Thu. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds and rough seas approaching 12 ft are expected to reach the offshore waters of Baja California on Fri, associated with a frontal system. Yet a larger NW swell arriving Sat will produce very rough seas to 19 ft. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure centered north of the the Caribbean supports moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and seas of 3-5 ft in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 2-4 ft are occurring in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds will funnel across the Papagayo region and extend to 90W through Wed night, then diminish into the weekend. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse in the western Gulf of Panama through Wed morning. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds, and moderate seas in mixed SW to W swell, will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1028 mb high pressure system near 32N133W dominates the eastern Pacific basin, and supports fresh to locally strong easterly winds from 10N to 25N and west of 120W. Seas in these waters are 8-12 ft. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh SE winds and seas to 10 ft are occurring south of 03N and between 100W and 125W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure will support moderate to locally strong easterly winds and rough seas across the trade waters during the next few days. New large NW swell moving into the north and western waters will reach from 10N140W to the Revillagigedo Islands tonight. The mixed swell over the equatorial waters will persist for the next several days. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will reach our NW border at 30N140W by midday Wed, bringing with it fresh to strong NW winds and very large seas in NW swell north of 20N through the end of the week. Even larger reinforcing NW swell may arrive Fri afternoon to the NW waters, possibly in excess of 20 ft.