Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Jul 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 94W, south of 16N, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Associated convection is described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section. A tropical wave is analyzed along 104W, south of 16N, moving west at 10 kt. Associated convection is also described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 09N95W to 08N105W. The ITCZ extends from 08N105W to 10N120W to 06N130W to beyond 09N140W. Scattered to locally numerous to strong convection is noted from 01.5N to 10.5N east of 92W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 10N to 14.5N between 92W and 101W and from 03N to 12.5N between 105W and 128W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge extends from the NE Pacific across the Baja California waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands, and is maintaining gentle to moderate NW to N winds, with 5-7 ft seas in merging NW and SW swell, per earlier satellite altimeter data. Gentle breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere to Puerto Angel. Fresh NW to N gap winds with locally rough seas to 8 ft continue in a narrow plume across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downstream to near 14.5N this afternoon. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are offshore the coasts from Chiapas and Guerrero, S of 14.5N, and continue to shift westward. For the forecast, the ridge extending into the Baja California will maintain gentle to moderate breezes through Sat, becoming moderate to occasionally fresh near the coast of Baja California starting Sat evening through Tue, as the high pressure builds modestly into the area. Moderate to fresh gap winds across the Tehuantepec region will pulse again to strong tonight through Sat morning, then diminish through early next week. Looking ahead, large SW swell is expected to reach the waters off southern Mexico early next week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Reports from Liberia, Costa Rica show E to SE winds to 20 kt, hinting there are fresh to strong gap winds across the nearby Gulf of Papagayo and off the coast of Nicaragua. Associated seas are likely 6-7 ft so far this evening, with a component of SW swell. Clusters of showers and thunderstorms remain active along the monsoon trough as far west as 95W. Gentle to moderate breezes are noted elsewhere with 5-7 ft seas. For the forecast, scattered showers and thunderstorms are expected to continue to shift westward across the area waters through early Sun before activity begin to shift northward into the Caribbean. Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse at night across the Papagayo region into early next week, leading to occasional rough seas. Cross- equatorial southerly swell will dominate area seas through the weekend and keep seas moderate to the N of 04N through Sun morning, before increasing to near 8 ft off Ecuador and the Galapagos Sun evening through Tue. The combination of the southerly swell with shorter period seas associated with gap winds will allow combined seas to 8 ft off northern Central America by Tue. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1005 mb low pressure area, the remnant low of Douglas, is centered near 21N129W. A recent scatterometer satellite pass indicated fresh to strong winds are still active within 240 nm of the center of Douglas, mainly on the northern side between the low the subtropical ridge to the north of the area. Concurrent altimeter satellite data showed wave heights to 13 ft just to the east of the center, indicated maximum seas to 14 ft in the area of strongest winds to the north of the center. The presence of this low pressure is disrupting the subtropical ridge north of 20N. This pattern is supporting mostly gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere west of 120W, with 5-7 ft seas in a mix of swell. East of 120W, a long plume of fresh E winds and 7-8 ft seas emerging from the Papagayo gap area is reaching as far west as 105W, from 08N to 11N. Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere east of 120W. Wave heights are 6-8 ft with SW swell. For the forecast, winds and seas near the remnants of Douglas will gradually diminish through Sun night as the remnant low weakens and opens into a trough. The ridge will drift southwestward and generally persist across the region through early next week, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds farther south into the tropics. Looking ahead, weak low pressure may form south of the Revillagigedo Islands by the early to middle part of the coming week. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system while it moves generally westward at 10-15 kt, although chances of development at this time are low.