Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Feb 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 07N84W to 01N95W to 01N12W. The ITCZ extends from 01N112W to 03N140W. No significant convection is depicted in relation to these features. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong to near-gale force winds and 6 to 8 ft seas persist across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Gentle to moderate breezes prevail elsewhere across the offshore waters of Mexico. Seas are 5 to 7 ft overall, except 1 to 3 ft seas in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, fresh to strong SE winds will pulse across the northern Gulf of California today ahead of a cold front approaching from the west. The front will slowly dissipate as it moves into Baja California Norte Wed into Thu. Large NW swell will follow the front into the waters off Baja California Norte Wed and Wed night, and in the outer waters off Baja California Sur north of Cabo San Lazaro Wed night into Thu. Looking ahead, another front will approach Baja California Fri followed by fresh NW winds and large swell near Guadalupe Island. Farther south, fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec today, and then again Wed night into Thu night. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong to near-gale force NW to W winds, with seas 5 to 8 ft prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate to fresh N winds and seas 3 to 5 ft prevail over the Gulf of Panama. Gentle breezes and 4 to 6 ft seas are found elsewhere in a mix of swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds and rough seas will persist across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the end of the week, with seas not appreciably subsiding until Sun. Moderate winds and seas will persist elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface trough is analyzed over the Gulf of Baja California. Scattered moderate convection is depicted north from 06N to 20N between 105W and 113W in association to an upper upper level trough. Farther west, recent scatterometer pass confirmed moderate to fresh NE trade winds extending north of the ITCZ to near 20N, west of 125W. Farther north, the scatterometer captured a circulation near 34N131W, which is the parent low accompanying a cold front moving from west to east across the discussion waters north of 23.5N west of 130W. Fresh to strong NW winds and large NW swell follow the front. The swell is reinforcing an area of older swell in excess of 8 ft covering most of the area west of 120W. For the forecast, the cold front will continue to move eastward across the waters north of 20N toward Baja California through Wed. This will in turn allow the fresh to strong trade winds in the deep tropics west of 125W to diminish through today. The associated rough seas will subside accordingly. Meanwhile, fresh to strong NW winds and rough to very rough seas will follow the front as it continues eastward and reaches from 30N124W to 22N140W by this afternoon. The winds will diminish through tonight, but large shorter-period NW swell of 8 to 15 ft will cover the area north of 25N and west of 120W before decaying below 8 ft through Wed. Looking ahead, a low pressure area and associated cold front will move eastward across the waters north of 20N Wed through Fri, followed by another round of strong winds and rough to very rough seas.