Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun May 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A late-season Tehuantepec gap wind event will last from this morning through early Mon morning, as a ridge builds across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico, behind a frontal boundary across the Bay of Campeche. These gap winds will reach near-gale to gale-force later this morning through about midnight tonight, along with seas peaking at 10 to 12 ft. As the ridge shifts eastward on Mon, both winds and seas should subside quickly and allow marine conditions to rapidly improve. Please read the latest High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores_eastpac.php for more information. Climatologically, the first gale-force event of the season occurs in mid-October, with the final gale-force event occurring in late March or early April. Occasionally, gale-force events may occur as early as September, and as late as May. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A monsoon trough extends westward from northwestern Colombia through a 1008 mb low over central Panama to 07N94W. An ITCZ continues from 07N94W to 06N120W to beyond 07N140W. Widespread numerous moderate to isolated strong convection are occurring near the monsoon trough from 03N to the coast of Costa Rica and Panama between the coast of Colombia and 93W, including the Gulf of Panama. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section above for an ongoing Gale Warning. A broad surface ridge near 124W continues to dominate waters west of Baja California and near the Revillagigedo Islands, supporting gentle with locally moderate NW to N winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft. In the Gulf of California, mainly light to gentle winds and 1 to 3 ft seas are noted. Light to gentle winds and seas of 4 to 6 ft in mixed swells prevail for the waters near central and southern Mexico. For the forecast, aside from the gale conditions in the Tehunatepec region, fresh S to SW winds in the northern Gulf of California will pulse to between strong and near-gale force tonight and Mon night. Fresh to strong NW winds are also expected near Cabo San Lucas Mon night. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH section above for more detail on widespread convection, capable of producing heavy showers and dangerous lightning with locally gusty winds and rough seas. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft are present near the Papagayo region. Gentle NW to NE winds with 3 to 4 ft seas are noted in the waters off Guatemala and El Salvador. Gentle S to SW to W winds and seas at 3 to 5 ft in moderate S swell prevail for the remaining offshore waters. For the forecast, abundant tropical moisture near a monsoon trough will continue to support sporadic heavy showers and strong thunderstorms across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama and Colombia, including the Gulf of Panama through Mon night. Otherwise, fresh to locally strong easterly winds are expected in the Papagayo region Mon night, and again Tue night as high pressure builds north of the area. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas, in primarily southerly swell are anticipated through midweek next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Convergent surface winds east of a robust surface trough near 146W are causing scattered moderate convection from 07N to 13N and west of 125W. A broad surface ridge extends southeastward from the northeastern Pacific across 30N140E to near the Revillagigedo Islands. It is promoting gentle to moderate NW to NE winds and seas of 5 to 7 ft in moderate NW swell, north of 18N and west of 115W/120W, and also north of the ITCZ between 100W and 120W. Moderate to fresh NE to E trade winds and 6 to 8 ft seas dominate north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Mainly gentle with locally moderate SE to SW winds and seas at 4 to 6 ft in mix swells prevail south of the ITCZ. Another high pressure building southeastward from north of the Hawaiian Islands is going to tighten gradient north of the ITCZ. In response, trade winds north of the ITCZ to 18N and west of 130W are going to increase to between fresh and strong Mon through Tue, also sustaining the rough seas. A combination of NW and southerly swells should support moderate seas for the remaining waters through most of the coming week.