Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Mar 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1510 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 06N85W to 01N102W to 02.5N110W. The ITCZ extends from 02.5N113.5W to 04.5N124W to beyond 03N140W. A southern hemispheric ITCZ extends from 02.5S112W to 03.5S126W. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the trough between 82.5W and 88.5W, and also S of 02S between 118W and 126W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is about the ITCZ from 02N to 06N W of 123W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure well NW of the area is building SE toward Baja California Sur and the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a surface trough over the southern Gulf of California are producing fresh NW to N winds offshore the Baja California waters, becoming moderate northerly winds from Cabo San Lazaro southward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are generally 4 to 7 ft in NW swell across this area. Light northerly winds prevail across the Gulf of California where seas are slight. Elsewhere to the east, a weak pressure gradient is leading to mainly gentle winds across the waters to Puerto Angel. A modest plume of strong gap winds continues across the Gulf of Tehuantepec offshore to 14N, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. For the forecast, high pressure building over the waters NW of Baja California will tighten the pressure gradient there into late week, bringing fresh to strong NW winds, with associated rough seas in northerly swell that will persist off Baja California Norte into the weekend. Weak low pressure is likely to form off Baja California Norte this weekend, then meander into early next week. This could relax the pressure gradient over area waters and improve marine conditions. High pressure over NE Mexico supporting strong gap winds across the Gulf of Tehunatepec this morning will weaken this afternoon through Thu, leading to moderate to fresh gap winds across Tehuantepec through tonight. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong NE to E gap winds continue across the Papagayo region, extending offshore to near 91W, with fresh N gap winds ongoing in the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to 03.5N. Seas are 6 to 8 downwind of Papagayo and 4 to 6 ft downwind of the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle with slight to moderate seas of 5 ft or less in S-SW swell. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected in the Papagayo area into the weekend as high pressure prevails N of the region. Moderate to locally fresh gap winds may pulse in the Gulf of Panama, otherwise mainly light to gentle winds will prevail elsewhere through the weekend. Looking ahead, significant cross-equatorial SW swell is expected approach the waters offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands by Mon of next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1031 mb high pressure centered NW of the region near 37N144W is dominating much of the waters N of 04N. The gradient between this building ridge and the ITCZ is leading to moderate to fresh NE to E winds N of 10N and W of 130W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas through the basin are 4 to 7 ft in mixed swell, except to 8 ft in the trade wind zone along 140W. For the forecast, high pressure will build southward over the area into late week, tightening the pressure gradient and increasing winds. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas are expected over NW waters N of 05N and W of 115W starting this evening and continuing into the weekend. Looking ahead, low pressure is likely to develop and linger near Baja California Norte this weekend into early next week, which may weaken the pressure gradient and slightly improve marine conditions across the waters across NE portions.