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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Sep 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0835 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Marie is centered near 23.1N 121.9W at 06/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 19N to 25N and between 117W and 124W. A turn toward the west- northwest is forecast tonight or on Monday. Marie is then expected to resume a northwestward heading at a faster forward speed by Tuesday. Steady weakening is expected to begin later today and continue for the next several days. Marie is forecast to become a post-tropical remnant low on Wednesday. Swells generated by Marie will continue to affect portions of the coast of southwest Mexico, the Baja California Peninsula, and Southern California for the next few days. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Marie NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 106W, extending from SW Mexico to 04N, moving westward at 5-10 kt. A few showers are noted near the trough axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 12N112W, then continues from 13N126W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 01N to 18N and east of 114W. Similar convection is found from 01N to 10N and west of 114W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Marie centered well west of Baja California, Mexico. Hurricane Marie is producing moderate to locally strong cyclonic winds and very rough seas across the far offshore waters of Baja California, especially west of 116W and south of 27N. In the rest of the Baja California waters, moderate or weaker winds and rough seas are noted. In the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. A few showers are observed in the central Gulf of California and off SW Mexico. For the forecast, Hurricane Marie is near 23.1N 121.9W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Marie will move to 23.8N 122.7W this afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 24.5N 123.7W Mon morning, 25.1N 125.0W Mon afternoon, 25.8N 126.4W Tue morning, 27.0N 127.4W Tue afternoon, and 28.7N 128.2W Wed morning. Marie will weaken to a remnant low over 32.7N 130.3W early Thu. Elsewhere, moderate to fresh winds are expected to develop in the nearshore waters of Baja California and N Gulf of California early this week as Marie moves away. Looking ahead, a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the middle or latter portions of next week while the system moves generally west-northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. The system has a medium chance of tropical formation in the next 7 days. The next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec may occur by mid to late next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A scatterometer satellite pass from a few hours ago captured fresh easterly winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas are 5-7 ft in these waters. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are affecting much of the offshore waters of Central America and Colombia, producing gusty winds and higher seas. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will support moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region through the next several days. Building ridge by the middle of the week will result in strong gap winds and rough seas. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh southerly winds are expected in the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through at least midweek, decreasing somewhat today and Mon. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information about Hurricane Marie located well west of Baja California, Mexico. Away from the impact of Hurricane Marie in the NE waters, fresh cyclonic winds and rough seas persist from 21N to 28N and west of 138W associated with the outer eastern quadrant of Tropical Storm Karina that continues to move farther away from the eastern Pacific basin. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds with seas of 5-7 ft are prevalent across the remainder of the tropical eastern Pacific. For the forecast, Hurricane Marie is near 23.1N 121.9W at 2 AM PDT, and is moving northwest at 7 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 80 kt with gusts to 100 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Marie will move to 23.8N 122.7W this afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 24.5N 123.7W Mon morning, 25.1N 125.0W Mon afternoon, 25.8N 126.4W Tue morning, 27.0N 127.4W Tue afternoon, and 28.7N 128.2W Wed morning. Marie will weaken to a remnant low over 32.7N 130.3W early Thu. Looking ahead, cross equatorial swell will produce seas to 8 ft in the southern waters west of 100W during much of the week. A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of southwestern Mexico is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible, and a tropical depression could form during the middle or latter portions of next week while the system moves generally west- northwestward at 10 to 15 mph. This system has a medium chance of tropical formation over the next 7 days.