Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Oct 26 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Vance is centered near 15.3N 105.1W at 26/0900 UTC, moving northwest at 5 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 995 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are currently around 23 ft or 7 m. Numerous moderate isolated to scattered strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center. Numerous moderate convection is elsewhere within 120 nm of the center, except within 210 nm in the NE quadrant. Vance is moving toward the northwest. A west- northwestward motion is expected over the next day or so, followed by a turn toward the north around midweek. Gradual weakening is forecast for the next several days. Periods of heavy rainfall associated with Vance will impact portions of western Mexico during much of this week. This rainfall may produce flooding and mudslides across Colima, Nayarit, and Sinaloa, along with western portions of Michoacán, Jalisco, and Durango, especially in areas along steep terrain. Swells generated by Vance will affect portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico during the next several days. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient over Mexico from strong high pressure ridging is currently supporting north to northeast winds of 25 to 35 kt in the Gulf of Tehuantepec as measured by recent ASCAT scatterometer data confirming minimal gales. These winds are forecast to diminish to just below gale force by early this afternoon as the gradient slackens some. Resultant locally rough seas will slowly subside through Tue. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from the SW Caribbean Sea at 11N76W to across the Gulf of Panama to 07N82.5W to 08N87W to 06.5N95W to 08N99.5W well SE of Tropical Storm Vance, then resumes well SW of Vance from 08N111W to 1009 mb low pressure near 07N132.5W to 06.5N135W. The ITCZ extends from 06.5N135W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03.4S to 09N between 77W and 81W, and from 00N to 11N between 89W and 105W. Similar convection is noted from 02.5N to 04.5N between 131W and 134W, and from 01N to 02.5N between 137W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Vance, and on a Gale Warning for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Tropical Storm Vance, winds are moderate or weaker, except locally fresh offshore Baja California from near Punta Eugenia northward. Seas are moderate away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, except slight in the Gulf of California away from the entrance where they are higher due to SE swells moving in from Vance. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance will move to 15.6N 105.9W this afternoon, 16.1N 106.9W Tue morning, 17.2N 107.6W Tue afternoon, 18.5N 108.0W Wed morning, 19.9N 108.1W Wed afternoon, and 21.4N 108.0W Thu morning. Vance will weaken to a remnant low over 23.2N 107.9W early Fri. Elsewhere, N-NE gale force gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are expected to diminish to just below gale force by early this afternoon as the gradient slackens some. Resultant seas will slowly subside through Tue. Winds there will then pulse at fresh to strong speeds through Thu night. Moderate to fresh winds will pulse nearshore Baja California Norte through Tue evening. Moderate or weaker winds along with moderate seas will prevail elsewhere away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except mainly slight seas in the Gulf of California. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds and moderate seas are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate to fresh NW winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere with moderate seas, except slight seas nearshore Colombia. Very active convection is present offshore Ecuador, Colombia and Panama as described above with locally higher winds and seas possible. For the forecast, moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse in the Gulf of Papagayo at times through the week, except fresh to strong later this morning. Moderate to fresh NW winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through this evening, and then again starting late Wed night. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will continue elsewhere, except mainly slight nearshore Colombia. Looking ahead, seas may build to rough in SW swell S of the Equator by the end of the week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on Tropical Storm Vance. High pressure covers the area generally N of about 18N and W of 110W. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are from 14N to 18N between 120W and 130W between the high and northward troughing along the monsoon trough near 130W. A frontal system is just WNW of 30N140W with fresh to locally strong SE to S winds and rough seas just SE of 30N140W. Winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas across the remainder of the open waters away from Vance. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance will move to 15.6N 105.9W this afternoon, 16.1N 106.9W Tue morning, 17.2N 107.6W Tue afternoon, 18.5N 108.0W Wed morning, 19.9N 108.1W Wed afternoon, and 21.4N 108.0W Thu morning. Vance will weaken to a remnant low over 23.2N 107.9W early Fri. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will persist into around the middle part of the week. Swells generated from a frontal system just WNW of the discussion waters will support with fresh to locally strong SE to S winds over the far NW portion of the area into the early part of the week. These conditions will spread slightly eastward over the waters roughly N of about 28N and W of 138W through Wed. Meanwhile, a new set of southerly swell is expected to spread into the S-central waters later today, building seas to a rough state over the waters S of about 05N between 105W and 130W by late Wed night. These seas are expected to linger through at least Fri night.