Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Jun 17 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0350 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 84W extending from 01N northward to across Nicaragua and into the Gulf of Honduras, moving westward at around 20 kt. Nearby convection is described with the monsoon trough below. The axis of a tropical wave is now analyzed near 105W extending from 03N to 15N. Nearby convection is described with the monsoon trough below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the SW Caribbean Sea near 10N74W to across Costa Rica, reaching from the Gulf of Papagayo at 11N86W to 12N100W to 07N115W. The ITCZ extends from 07N115W to 06N126W to 09N134W just to the SE of low pressure, Invest EP93 near 11N135W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is from 03N to 16N E of 100W, from 04N to 14N between 100W and 120W. Convection associated with Invest EP93 has dissipated. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the northern Gulf of California into Baja California Sur to Cabo San Lucas. The pressure gradient between the trough and surface ridging to the west is supporting moderate to fresh NW winds across the Baja Peninsula offshores along with moderate seas to 7 ft in S-SW swell. In the Gulf of California, winds are light to gentle and seas remain slight north of the entrance of the gulf. A weak pressure gradient across the remainder discussion waters is supporting light to gentle winds with moderate seas to 6 ft in S-SW swell. Active convection is present across the offshore waters from Chiapas to Oaxaca, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec as described above. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the waters of Baja California, pulsing to locally fresh speeds at night. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds are expected inside the Gulf of California and near the tip of Baja California Sur, reaching to locally fresh speeds Wed into early Thu. Light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Tehunatepec. Moderate seas in mainly southerly swell will prevail through the next several days, slight in the Gulf of California. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are ongoing offshore Gulf of Papagayo along with moderate seas. Mainly light to gentle winds under a weak pressure gradient prevail across the remainder of the waters along with slight to moderate seas. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers and tstms are across the offshore waters from western Colombia northwestward to offshore Guatemala as described within the monsoon trough section above. Winds and seas may be higher in and near these areas of deep convection. For the forecast, gentle to occasionally moderate S to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail across the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Sun night. Moderate winds will pulse to fresh in diurnal offshore flow in the immediate Gulf of Papagayo beginning Fri night. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in SW swell are forecast elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1008 mb low, Invest EP93, centered well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands near 11N135W is producing limited shower and thunderstorm activity. Moderate to fresh winds are within 240 nm northern semicircle and 90 nm SE quadrant of the low center. Moderate to rough seas to around 8 ft are also within that distance from the low center with the highest seas being in the NW quadrant. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, low pressure, Invest EP93, located well east- southeast of the Hawaiian Islands, is moving into an unfavorable environment with an increasingly dry mid-level airmass and increasing upper-level winds, and development is no longer expected. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds, and moderate seas will prevail, except seas building to rough south of and near the Equator and east of 120W in new southerly swells tonight and early Wed through the end of the week. Winds may pulse to fresh in the west-central waters at times. Looking ahead, yet another set of southerly swell may build seas to rough over the same area during the upcoming weekend.