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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Sep 25 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Polo is centered near 17.2N 109.2W, or about 290 nm SW of Cabo Corrientes, Mexico, at 25/2100 UTC, moving west at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 913 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 155 kt with gusts to 190 kt. Peak seas are currently around 41 ft (13 meters). Numerous strong convection is noted within 120 nm of the center. Polo is forecast to turn to the northwest Sat, north on Sun, then NE Mon. On the forecast track, Polo is expected to approach Baja California Sur early next week. Polo is a category 5 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. Fluctuations in intensity are possible today, but some weakening is expected this weekend. Polo is forecast to approach Baja California Sur as a strong hurricane early next week. For a complete depiction of forecast rainfall associated with Polo, please see the National Weather Service Storm Total Rainfall Graphic available at hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?rainqpf Swells generated by Polo will continue to affect the coast of southwestern Mexico during the next couple of days. Swells will spread northward along the coast of west-central Mexico and the Baja California Peninsula through the weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf, rip currents, and coastal flooding. Please consult products from your local weather office. Hurricane Odalys is centered near 18.3N 123.6W at 25/2100 UTC, moving north-northeast at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 951 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt. Peak seas are currently around 34 ft (11 meters). Numerous strong convection is noted within 60 nm of the center. Odalys is expected to continue moving generally northward into Sat, before turning NE. Odalys is a category 3 hurricane on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. A weakening trend is forecast to begin tonight, then continue through early next week. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on both Polo and Odalys. Low pressure South of the Gulf of Tehuantepec: An area of low pressure is expected to form within the next day or two to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterward, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a medium chance of tropical formation within 48 hours and a high chance of tropical formation through the next 7 days. The broader circulation, deep moisture, and instability associated with this system is already producing heavy rainfall over portions of Central America and Southern Mexico. Additional rainfall amounts through Saturday night across portions of Honduras, El Salvador, and Guatemala, as well as Chiapas and Oaxaca in Mexico, will raise concerns for life- threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to local weather services as well as the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N85W to 12N91W to 14N95W. It then resumes SW of Hurricane Odalys near 12N127W and continues to 14N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is from 06N to 10N between 88W-95W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 03N to 08N between 80W-88W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricanes Polo and Odalys as well as low pressure developing south of the Gulf of Tehunatepec that is bringing very heavy rainfall to portions of southern Mexico. Away from Hurricane Polo, modest high pressure building southward is leading to moderate NW winds in the Gulf of California and nearshore waters of Baja California. Moderate to locally fresh gap winds are developing in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, and broad cyclonic flow offshore Oaxaca and Chiapas has increased to moderate intensity. Rough seas from Polo dominate waters W of 103N and S of 26N, with moderate seas elsewhere in offshore waters. In the Gulf of California, northern waters have slight seas, with seas of 4 to 7 ft building in the central and southern gulf. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 17.2N 109.2W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving west at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 155 kt with gusts to 190 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 913 mb. Hurricane Polo will move to 17.4N 110.6W Sat morning, 18.2N 112.1W Sat afternoon, and 19.6N 113.2W Sun morning. Polo will then reach 21.5N 113.7W Sun afternoon, 23.4N 113.6W Mon morning, and 25.1N 112.8W Mon afternoon. Polo will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland over Sonora, Mexico, Tue afternoon. Hurricane Odalys is near 18.3N 123.6W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving north-northeast at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 951 mb. Odalys will move to 18.9N 123.5W Sat morning, 20.0N 123.4W Sat afternoon, and 21.1N 123.3W Sun morning. Odalys will weaken to a tropical storm near 22.0N 122.9W Sun afternoon, then become post- tropical and move to 22.4N 122.3W Mon morning. Post- tropical cyclone Odalys weaken to a remnant low near 21.9N 121.6W Mon afternoon. The remnants of Odalys will be west of the Revillagigedo Islands Tue afternoon. An area of low pressure is expected to form within the next day or two to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterward, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a medium chance of tropical formation within 48 hours and a high chance of tropical formation through the next 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate SE winds have developed offshore Guatemala, flowing toward lower pressure S of the Gulf of Tehunatepec. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds dominate the basin. Moderate seas prevail, except slight seas are present in and near the Gulf of Panama. For the forecast, as low pressure develops to the west of the area, south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh southerly winds and locally rough seas are possible well offshore Guatemala through the weekend. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds expected to prevail across the offshore waters through early next week, along with mostly moderate seas. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Major Hurricanes Polo and Odalys. Outside of these hurricanes, and increasing pressure gradient due to high pressure building southward is leading to moderate to fresh NE winds N of 14N and W of 124W. Otherwise, mainly gentle winds dominate. Moderate seas prevail, although the aforementioned hurricanes are causing a broad area of rough seas from 09N to 26N, E of 133W. For the forecast, Major Hurricane Polo is near 17.2N 109.2W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving west at 9 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 155 kt with gusts to 190 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 913 mb. Hurricane Polo will move to 17.4N 110.6W Sat morning, 18.2N 112.1W Sat afternoon, and 19.6N 113.2W Sun morning. Polo will then reach 21.5N 113.7W Sun afternoon, 23.4N 113.6W Mon morning, and 25.1N 112.8W Mon afternoon. Polo will weaken to a tropical storm while moving inland over Sonora, Mexico, Tue afternoon. Hurricane Odalys is near 18.3N 123.6W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving north-northeast at 4 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 110 kt with gusts to 135 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 951 mb. Odalys will move to 18.9N 123.5W Sat morning, 20.0N 123.4W Sat afternoon, and 21.1N 123.3W Sun morning. Odalys will weaken to a tropical storm near 22.0N 122.9W Sun afternoon, then become post- tropical and move to 22.4N 122.3W Mon morning. Post- tropical cyclone Odalys weaken to a remnant low near 21.9N 121.6W Mon afternoon. The remnants of Odalys will be west of the Revillagigedo Islands Tue afternoon. An area of low pressure is expected to form within the next day or two to the south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Afterward, environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development, and a tropical depression is expected to form late this weekend or early next week while the system moves slowly west-northwestward to northwestward, parallel to the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico. There is a medium chance of tropical formation within 48 hours and a high chance of tropical formation through the next 7 days. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to form about 1000 miles east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands over the weekend. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression could form early next week. The system is forecast to move generally northeastward.