Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Nov 6 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0835 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Heavy Precipitation across Central America: Plenty of tropical moisture and divergence aloft result in numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms affecting parts of Central America. The heaviest precipitation is expected across Nicaragua and Costa Rica. This weather pattern will persist over the next few days. Heavy rainfall may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your local weather agency and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more details. Low pressure offshore Nicaragua: A broad area of low pressure offshore of Central America is producing a disorganized area of showers and thunderstorms. A tropical depression could still form over the weekend while the low drifts slowly offshore. Upper-level winds should prevent further development after the weekend. This system could bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America through the weekend. This system has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation in the next 48 hours and 7 days. Please refer to the latest NHC Tropical Weather Outlook at website: https://www.hurricanes.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to a 1008 mb low pres near 11N90W to 07N112W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N112W to 06N127W and beyond 07N140W. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection is observed north of 04N and east of 95W. Scattered moderate convection is noted south of 11N and between 108W and 122W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1028 mb high pressure system near 33N136W extends southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. A recent scatterometer satellite pass captured moderate to locally fresh northerly winds across the offshore waters of Baja California. Northwesterly swell is producing seas of 6-9 ft in these waters, as shown by latest satellite-derived altimeter data. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a series of NW swell sets will continue to impact the Baja California waters into early next week producing rough seas up to 12 ft. Meanwhile, a tightening pressure gradient will result in fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec starting this evening and continuing into early next week. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are forecast in the northern Gulf of California this weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see Special Features section above for information on low pressure offshore Nicaragua that has potential for tropical development as well as a heavy rainfall threat over portions of Central America. A broad area of low pressure over the offshore waters of Central America and plenty of tropical moisture result in numerous showers and isolated thunderstorms. The strongest storms are affecting areas from Nicaragua to Panama and nearby waters. A recent scatterometer satellite pass showed moderate to fresh winds in the area described. Seas are 4-7 ft in these waters. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, aside from the low pressure area with tropical cyclone formation potential, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail into early next week. Winds may pulse to moderate to fresh offshore of the Gulf of Papagayo and in the Gulf of Panama early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The tight pressure gradient between the aforementioned subtropical ridge centered north of the area and lower pressures in the deep tropics results in fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds north of 10N and west of 120W. A long-period NW swell moving across these waters produces seas of 8-13 ft, with the highest seas occurring near 30N140W. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 6-8 ft are present in the waters south of the equator. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and seas of 6-8 ft are evident. For the forecast, moderate to locally strong trades will prevail over the west-central waters through today, followed by moderate to fresh winds into early next week. Several sets of NW swell will impact the waters north of 10N through the next several days, with rough to very rough seas expected. Cross-equatorial swell will continue to produce rough seas close to the equator over the next several days, possibly lingering into early next week.