Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Thu May 14 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10.5N74W to 09.5N85W to 06N89W. The ITCZ extends from 06N89W to 07.5N89W to 09N122W, then resumes W of a surface trough from 02N135W to beyond 02N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02.5N to 08N between 79W and 99W, from 07N to 12.5N between 99W and 112W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 00.5N to 10N between 120W and 136W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge across the region extends southeastward across the waters W of 110W, to the Revillagigedo Islands. Troughing extends across Baja California Norte. This pressure pattern supports moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds offshore Baja California and in the central to southern Gulf of California. Seas across the Baja offshore waters are 4 to 6 ft in mixed NW and SW swell, and 3 to 4 ft in the central to southern Gulf of California. Winds have diminished slightly across the Gulf of Tehuantepec late this afternoon and evening, with strong northerly winds extending offshore to near 15N, where seas are 6-7 ft, and extend southwestward to the outer offshore waters. Mainly gentle winds prevail across the remainder of the waters, along with 5-6 ft seas in mixed SW and NW swells. No significant convection is noted over these waters at this time. For the forecast, strong northerly gap winds will continue to pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early Fri due to a tight pressure gradient, reaching around 30 kt tonight. Seas will peak around 10 ft with these peak winds. Fresh W to SW gap winds will pulse in the northern Gulf of California tonight as a trough briefly deepens, with similar conditions possible Sun night. Otherwise, moderate to fresh winds are expected across the offshore waters of Baja California through Fri as ridging W of the area strengthens. Winds will increase to fresh to strong well offshore Baja California Norte this weekend, diminishing early next week. Moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell will dominate the offshore waters, building to 8-9 ft offshore Baja California Norte Fri night, then to 8-15 ft on Sun, with seas of 8 ft or greater spreading southward to offshore of Cabo San Lazaro by Sun night. Seas will very gradually subside early next week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh easterly winds extend offshore of southern Nicaragua and the Papagayo region. Seas are 5-7 ft there. Moderate NW to N winds prevail across the Gulf of Panama, where seas are 2 to 4 ft. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere across the area waters, with seas of 4-6 ft in SW swell, except 5-7 ft in mixed southerly swell S of the Equator. Scattered showers and a few thunderstorms extend from coastal Colombia between 01.5N and 05.5N westward across the outer offshore waters to beyond 90W, while a few clusters of afteroon convection are near the coast of the Azuero Peninsula of Panamas and central Costa Rica. For the forecast, fresh gap winds will pulse to locally strong offshore of the Papagayo region through the rest of the week, mainly at night into the early morning hours, with building seas to locally rough during those times. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds will pulse across the Gulf of Panama to the Azuero Peninsula at night. Showers and thunderstorms offshore Colombia and Panama will gradually shift westward and diminish across the area through Thu, then become active again Fri afternoon through Fri night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... 1030 mb high pressure just N of the area near 36N145W extends a ridge southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands, and dominates the waters N of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the ridging and lower pressure associated with the ITCZ, including an embedded surface trough from 12N117W to 02N129W, supports moderate to fresh NE to E trades across most of the waters N of the ITCZ and W of 117W. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere across the open waters, including S of the ITCZ. Seas are 7-9 ft in southerly swell S of 05N between 100W and 125W. Seas are 7-9 ft in mixed swells from roughly 10N to 27N to the W of 129W, and from 05N to 21N between 119W and 130W. Active convection continues between 120W and 136W, near portions of the ITCZ and the surface trough as described above. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will continue to build across the region tonight through Fri to support continued fresh trade winds N of the ITCZ and W of 115W, with seas of 7-9 ft broadening across that area. N winds are expected to strengthen slightly to fresh to strong across the NE and N-central waters by the weekend before diminishing early next week, while seas there will build as a result of the increasing winds. Seas may build to 12 ft or greater N of 26N and W of 128W. Rough seas to around 8 ft in southerly swell will continue across the far southwestern waters to near the Equator and W of 100W. Seas of around 8 ft may continue across this same area through Thu before new southerly swell reaches the equator Fri night into the weekend, building seas back to around 8 ft.