Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun May 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from near the Costa Rica/Panama border to 07N94W. The ITCZ continues from 07N94W to 06N120W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring from 03N to 11N between 80W and 113W. Similar convective activity is also noted from 08N to 11N between 123W and 128W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A recent scatterometer pass provides observations of fresh to strong N winds across the Tehuantepec area. As a result, the Gale Warning is allowed to expire at 18Z. A ridge dominates the offshore forecast waters of Baja California supporting gentle to locally moderate NW to N winds with moderate seas. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate southerly winds and slight seas are noted, except N of 30N where moderate to fresh S winds are observed with seas of 3 to 4 ft. Elsewhere along the Mexican forecast waters, outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle winds and seas of 3 to 5 ft in mixed swells prevail. For the forecast, the late-season gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region, with fresh to strong winds and rough seas up to 9 ft will last through Mon morning. Then, winds will diminish to 15 to 20 kt, with seas of 6 to 7 ft on Mon afternoon. Otherwise, fresh to strong S to SW winds and moderate seas are expected in the northern Gulf of California this evening and tonight. Winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds offshore Baja California beginning on Tue night as a stronger ridge builds there. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are expected. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds and moderate seas, primarily in SW swell dominate all the offshore forecast zones. Meanwhile, scattered moderate convection continues to develop across the region from Colombia to Nicaragua. Gusty winds, frequent lightning, and higher seas are likely near thunderstorms. For the forecast, abundant tropical moisture and surface convergence will persist across the offshore waters from Colombia to Nicaragua, including the Gulf of Panama, likely through midweek, continuing to support the development of showers and thunderstorms across the area. Meanwhile, fresh easterly winds are expected in the Papagayo region tonight through Tue, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas, in primarily southerly swell, are expected through at least midweek. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong upper-level winds are advecting abundant multilayer clouds across the NW and N waters into Baja California Norte and NW Mexico. A ridge continues to dominate the forecast waters N of 15N and W of 110W, including the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh trade winds mainly W of 120W. Seas are 8 to 10 ft within these winds. Recent scatterometer and altimeter data confirmed the presence of these wind speeds and sea heights. Elsewhere under the influence of the ridge, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. High pressure N of the area is going to tighten the pressure gradient north of the ITCZ. In response, trade winds north of the ITCZ to about 18N and west of 130W are going to increase to fresh to strong speeds tonight through Tue, also sustaining the rough seas. A combination of NW and southerly swells should support moderate seas for the remaining waters through most of the week.