Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Mon Oct 19 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0235 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Trudy is centered near 19.7N 107.6W at 19/0300 UTC, moving northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 984 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Peak seas are near 27 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 17N to 22N and between 104W and 108W. A turn toward the west-northwest or west is expected tonight into Monday. On the forecast track, the center of Trudy will move further away from the coast of mainland Mexico during the overnight hours, then move south of Baja California Sur on Monday and Tuesday. Rapid weakening is expected to continue tonight into Monday, and Trudy could degenerate to a post- tropical low by Tuesday night. Swells generated by Trudy are affecting portions of the coast of southwestern and west-central Mexico during the next two to three days. These swells will cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details on Trudy. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A 1026 mb high pressure system over NE Mexico continues to support strong to gale-force northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending downstream to 08N. These conditions will continue into Tue night, along with rough to very rough seas. Winds will diminish below gale-force by Wed, but remain at strong to near gale-force, along with rough seas, through the remainder of the week. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 05N101W. The ITCZ stretches from 06N127W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present from 01N to 16N and east of 102W and south of 10N and west of 123W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Trudy and on a Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Elsewhere, a moderate pressure gradient across the Gulf of California supports moderate to locally fresh NW winds and moderate seas, especially in the central portion of the basin. Rough seas associated with Trudy are found in the southern part of the Gulf of California. In the remainder of the basin, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, Hurricane Trudy will weaken to a tropical storm near 19.8N 107.9W Mon morning, move to 19.8N 108.5W Mon evening, 19.9N 109.3W Tue morning, weaken to a remnant low near 20.4N 109.8W Tue evening, 21.1N 110.1W Wed morning, and dissipate Wed evening. A strong high pressure system over NE Mexico continues to support strong to gale-force northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, extending downstream to 08N. These conditions will continue into Tue night, along with rough to very rough seas. Winds will diminish below gale-force by Wed, but remain at strong to near gale-force, along with rough seas, through the remainder of the week. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is developing well offshore to the south of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form around the middle of this week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward, remaining well south of the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low over the next 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong winds and very rough seas in association with significant gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec are impacting waters well offshore Guatemala. Meanwhile, high pressure north of the Caribbean supports moderate to locally fresh easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring in the Gulf of Papagayo. Otherwise, moderate seas and mainly gentle to moderate winds prevail. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE winds well downwind of Gulf of Tehuantepec gales will continue to impact waters offshore Guatemala tonight, with very rough seas gradually decaying to rough into Mon. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas will generally prevail through the week. Looking ahead, winds may pulse to fresh to locally strong in the Gulf of Papagayo starting midweek into late this week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1029 mb high pressure system centered near 35N155W extends southeastward into the tropical eastern Pacific waters, sustaining moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and seas of 6-8 ft west of 125W and north of ITCZ. Gap winds originating from the Gulf of Tehuantepec have extended southward, bringing strong winds and rough seas to waters N of 05N between 94W and 101W. Long-period southerly swell is leading to occasionally rough seas along and south of the equator. Elsewhere, mainly gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned gap winds will continue to bring periods of strong N winds and rough seas to waters N of 05N between 92W and 103W early this week. A cold front will move S of 30N Mon night, bringing fresh to strong winds behind it N of 25N through Wed. A couple rounds of NW swell, both ahead of and behind this front, will bring rough to very rough seas to waters N of 20N from Mon night through Thu. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is developing well offshore to the south of the coasts of Guatemala and El Salvador. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form around the middle of this week as the system moves westward to west-northwestward, remaining well south of the coasts of Central America and southern Mexico. There is a high chance of tropical formation of this low over the next 7 days.