Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Jan 20 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between strong high pressure north of the area and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting gale- force N gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This gale, along with very rough seas, will likely last into Wed morning. Marine interests transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec into the middle part of the week should be aware of these gale- force gap winds and take the necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa/gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N85W to 04N100W. The ITCZ continues from 04N100W to 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 12n between 102W and 110W, and from 08N to 10N between 130W and 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning remains in effect for the Tehuantepec region. Refer to the Special Features section above for details. Outside of the Tehuantepec area, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas persist across the Mexican offshore waters. Numerous showers and thunderstorms are active near Clarion Island, associated with a trough in the area. For the forecast, aside from the Tehuantepec gale, gentle to moderate winds will prevail through the end of the week, except large NW swell may reach Guadalupe Island off Baja California Norte by Sat. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong gap winds, and seas of 7 to 9 ft, prevail across the Gulf of Papagayo, extending SW to 90W. Rough seas of 8 to 10 ft are well offshore Guatemala and El Salvador in swell generated by the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas in the 3 to 5 ft range. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas in the Papagayo region through the end of the week. The pressure gradient will also support pulsing of moderate to fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama through the end of the week. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or weaker over the forecast waters through the end of the week. NW to N swell generated by gales over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will bring rough seas well offshore Guatemala and El Salvador through midweek. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Large NW swell of 8 to 9 ft covers the area north of 15N and west of 135W. Gentle to moderate breezes and moderate combined seas, primarily in NW swell, dominate elsewhere. For the forecast, the large NW swell will gradually subside through the middle of the week. Fresh to strong winds from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Gulf of Papagayo gap will spread into the region through Tue night along with seas of 8-12 ft. Elsewhere, winds should remain moderate or weaker, with seas less than 8 ft, for the next several days.