Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Wed Jul 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Genevieve is centered near 19.2N 120.1W at 29/2100 UTC, moving west-northwest at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 970 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 85 kt with gusts to 105 kt. Peak seas are near 36 ft or 11 m. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is within 180 nm in the NE quadrant, 300 nm in the SE quadrant, and 150 nm in the W semicircle. Genevieve is moving toward the west-northwest. This general motion with a slight increase in forward speed is expected during the next several days. Steady weakening is expected during the next couple of days, and Genevieve is forecast to become post-tropical this weekend. Swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the Baja California Peninsula and will reach Southern California today. These swells will persist for the next several days and are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Genevieve NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 90W, extending from 01N near the Galapagos Islands to far eastern Guatemala near the border with El Salvador, moving westward around 15 kt. Any nearby convection is described below with the ITCZ/monsoon trough. A tropical wave is along 107.5W, from 03N to 19N, moving very slowly W at around 5 kt. Any nearby convection is described below with the ITCZ/monsoon trough. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 1007 mb low pressure over northern Colombia at 10N76W to 10N86W to 08N92W to 10N100W to 08.5N108W to 14N114.5W. The ITCZ extends from 11N120W to beyond 07N140W. Isolated to widely scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 77W and 80W, from 03N to 13N between 93W and 111W, from 12N to 22N between 103W and 111W, and within 210 nm either side of the ITCZ. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Genevieve with tropical storm force or greater winds just beyond the Baja California Sur offshore waters. Please refer to the Tropical Waves and Monsoon Trough/ITCZ sections above for information about additional convection in the region. Away from the impacts of Genevieve, moderate or weaker winds prevail. Seas are slight in the Gulf of California and moderate in the remaining offshore waters, except rough to very rough west of 112W and the outer offshore waters of Baja California due to Genevieve. For the forecast, Hurricane Genevieve will move to 19.7N 121.8W Thu morning, 20.4N 124.2W Thu afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.2N 126.6W Fri morning, 22.0N 129.2W Fri afternoon, 22.7N 132.0W Sat morning, and 23.5N 134.9W Sat afternoon. Genevieve will become post-tropical as it moves to 25.4N 140.2W Sun afternoon. Associated seas at rough or greater heights will finally subside across the offshore waters of Baja California through the day Thu. Elsewhere, fresh northerly winds are likely in the Gulf of Tehunatepec Thu and Fri nights. Otherwise, areas of fresh mainly westerly gap winds are expected through Thu night nearshore Baja California as high pressure builds southward to the west of the Baja California Peninsula. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds may pulse in the northern Gulf of California beginning this weekend. Looking ahead, rough northerly seas may briefly build south of 30N into the waters off Baja California Norte by the end of the weekend into early next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please refer to the Monsoon Trough/ITCZ and Tropical Wave sections above for information about convection in the region. High pressure northeast of the area is forcing fresh easterly gap winds and resultant seas of 5 to 7 ft across the Gulf of Papagayo region, with moderate northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through the weekend, with occasionally rough seas. Pulsing moderate to locally fresh N winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama tonight. Southerly winds may freshen offshore southern Colombia and from Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands Thu night and Fri. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected across the remainder of the waters through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Hurricane Genevieve. For waters not being impacted by Hurricane Genevieve, high pressure is centered just northwest of the area. The pressure pattern between the high and Genevieve is supporting moderate to fresh NE trades from offshore southern California around the periphery of the ridge including from 20N to 30N and west of 1206, and from 10N to 20N and west of 130W. Moderate to locally fresh SE winds are found south of the Equator and west of 100W. Moderate or weaker winds are elsewhere. Moderate seas dominate the waters away from Genevieve. For the forecast, Hurricane Genevieve will move to 19.7N 121.8W Thu morning, 20.4N 124.2W Thu afternoon, weaken to a tropical storm near 21.2N 126.6W Fri morning, 22.0N 129.2W Fri afternoon, 22.7N 132.0W Sat morning, and 23.5N 134.9W Sat afternoon. Genevieve will become post-tropical as it moves to 25.4N 140.2W Sun afternoon. Away from Genevieve, little change in marine conditions is forecast across the remainder of the waters into next weekend. Looking ahead, fresh and rough northerly swell off California may push southward into the waters off Baja California Norte north of 27N and east of 130W by the end of this weekend into early next week.