Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected

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Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Dec 28 2025 Corrected Special Features section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0345 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES...Corrected Significant Swell and Developing Low Pressure: Large northwest swell continues to induce rough to very rough seas over the waters north of about 18N and west of about 116W, with seas peaking to around 13 ft (4.m) from 21N to 26N between 120W and 123W. Wave period with these seas is of 12-14 sec. Rough seas extend southward to near 10N and east-northeast to the offshore waters of Baja California, including Sebastian Vizcaino Bay. The swell will slowly subside through late Sun south of 28N. Rough seas of 8 to 12 ft are likely to prevail into Mon over the waters just west of the Baja California Sur offshore zones, roughly from 15N to 25N. In addition, a surface trough analyzed from near 20N124W to 15N126W and to 12N127W in conjunction with a vigorous and broad upper trough is producing a large area of moderate to heavy rain with embedded scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms generally from 14N to 23N between 120W and 125W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 14N between 116W and 121W. An earlier scatterometer satellite data pass indicated that strong to near gale-force winds are occurring with the strongest convection. Global models suggest that a low pressure will develop in association with this trough across the waters south of about 22N between 120W and 128W Sun into early next week. This will combine with high pressure building into the region is expected to result in a rather broad zone of increasing winds reaching to strong speeds roughly from 16N to 26N and west of the Revillagigedo Islands, accompanied by scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms. There is a possibility of these winds reaching gale-force speeds, especially in squalls. Rough to very rough seas will spread over much of the basin north of 10N and west of 115W. Seas may reach up to 15 ft with the strongest winds. Conditions are forecast to improve by the middle of the upcoming week. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: Strong high pressure over the southern United States and across eastern Mexico in the wake of an upcoming Gulf of America cold front will result in a tight pressure gradient that is expected induce gale-force winds north winds into the Gulf of Tehuantepec region beginning Mon night. These winds may peak to, or near 45 kt going into the middle part of the upcoming week. Seas with these winds are expected to rapidly build to the range of 10 to 16 ft (3 to 5 m) with these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northern Colombia to 08N79W to 08N91W to 07N99W, where latest scatterometer satellite data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N110W to 10N125W to 08N134W and to beyond the area at 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 10N to 14N and between 116W and 121W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on a gale warning that is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. A 1032 mb high pressure system centered well north of the area near 41N133W has an associated ridge that extends southward to near 20N and west of the Revillagigedo Islands. Its related gradient is allowing for fresh north to northeast winds to exist across the offshore waters of Baja California. A decaying northwest swell is providing for seas of 8 to 12 ft north of Punta Eugenia and 6 to 9 ft in northwest swell south of Punta Eugenia. Moderate to locally fresh northwest winds and slight to moderate seas are found in the Gulf of California. Meanwhile, winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec have diminish below strong force and currently, moderate to fresh northerly winds prevail. Seas over these waters are 4 to 6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, northwest swell propagating through the offshore waters of the Baja California peninsula will slowly subside through early Mon. Fresh to locally strong northwest winds are likely to develop in the Gulf of California Sun into Tue as high pressure strengthens across the region. Weak high pressure will support moderate to fresh N winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sun morning. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will move across the Gulf of America Mon into Tue. High pressure building in behind the front will support the next gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec, reaching gale conditions late Mon night and continuing through Wed night. Winds may peak around 40 or 45 kt leading rough to very rough seas. Conditions will improve Thu into Fri. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A broad high pressure centered over the eastern Gulf of America extends southward into the region. An earlier scatterometer satellite data pass captured fresh to strong northeast to east winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region. Seas over these waters are 4 to 6 ft. Weak low pressure off Colombia is producing isolated showers and thunderstorms. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, high pressure north of the basin will support pulsing fresh to strong easterly trade winds in the Gulf of Papagayo through the forecast period. Gentle to moderate northerly winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama through the period, pulsing to fresh at night at times. Gentle or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section for details on significant swell over the waters west of Baja California, and for conditions that will soon be associated with low pressure impacting most of the northern waters and a section of the central waters. Broad ridging associated to strong high pressure that is centered well north of the area extends southward into the area near 20N. The gradient between the ridge and relatively lower pressure in the tropics is allowing for moderate to fresh trade winds north of about 10N and west of 120W. Seas are 15W. Seas outside the Special Feature significant swell area are 8 to 13 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, the decaying northwest swell is forecast to slowly subside through early Mon as high pressure builds into the regional waters. The surface trough in the trades waters near 122W will support the formation of a broad low pressure on Sun. The tight pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge and the low pressure will sustain a large area of strong to near gale- force winds and rough to very rough seas, occupying much of the forecast waters north of 10N and west of 115W into early next week. Winds may reach gales at times, especially in squalls. Conditions will improve midweek. Looking ahead, a cold front will move across the NW waters late next week and strong NW winds and rough to very rough seas may follow the front.