Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Jan 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 04N100W. The ITCZ continues from 04N100W to 07N115W to 08N123W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 11N between 116W and 121W, and from 07N to 10N between 130W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Winds have diminished to gentle to moderate speeds across the Tehuantepec region. A surface trough extends across Baja California Norte to a 1013 mb low pressure located near 28N116W to 22N120W. A band of manly low clouds is associated with the trough while isolated showers are noted near the low center. Light to gentle winds are currently associated with this trough. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, including also the Gulf of California, light to gentle winds and moderate seas in NW swell prevail. For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough will move across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through Sat morning, and across the southern Gulf of California by early Sat afternoon. The pressure gradient between the trough and high pressure building southward across the forecast region will support fresh to locally strong NW winds in the wake of the trough. Similar wind speeds are also expected just ahead of the trough axis. These winds will diminish to 20 kt or less by Sat evening. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is slated to begin Mon morning with winds rapidly increasing to strong gale force. Winds will further increase to storm force by Mon evening. Rough to very rough seas, likely reaching around 20 ft will be associated with this event. Marine interests transiting across the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week should be aware of this strong gap wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. Of note: The monthly distribution of Tehuantepec events shows that the largest number of gale force events occurs in December. Storm-force events occur most often in January. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent scatterometer data indicate fresh to strong NE winds across the Papagayo region and downwind to 88W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within these winds. Moderate NE winds with slight to moderate seas are ongoing in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle with moderate seas in mixed NW and SW swell. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas in the Papagayo region through early Sun morning. Fresh to strong winds in this region will resume again Mon night and reach near gale force speeds by Tue evening with rough seas. Moderate to fresh N winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Tue night. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or weaker through the middle of the next week. Seas generated by a strong gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beginning Mon evening. The highest seas in the 12 to 18 ft range in NW swell are expected on Tue. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends southward from a 1030 mb high pressure located near 41N137W across the northern forecast waters, particularly N of 15N and W of 120W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is promoting and area of mainly fresh trades N of the ITCZ to about 13N and W of 130W. Seas are near 8 ft within these winds based on altimeter data. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are moderate in mixed NE wind wave and long period NW swell. For the forecast, high pressure will build southward across the forecast region this weekend with a high pressure cell developing farther south near 32N135W. The high pressure will move E on Mon as cold front approaches the NW corner of the forecast area. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of the front by Mon evening. The front will reach from 30N135W to 25N140W by Mon night, and from 30N133W to 24N140W by Tue morning. Rough seas are expected in the wake of the front.