Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected

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Tropical Weather Discussion...Corrected NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun Dec 21 2025 Corrected Remainder of the Area section Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2145 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A tight pressure gradient between a persistent high pressure system over the southern United States and lower pressures in the deep tropics will support fresh to near gale-force northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through late into the upcoming week. A 1459Z Metop-B Ascat pass confirmed the occurrence of fresh to strong north winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region. Seas with these winds are 5 to 8 ft. For the early part of the upcoming week, high pressure will build in over the slopes of the Sierra Madre mountains in Mexico, forcing winds to pulse to gale speeds at night Mon through Wed, and to near gale Thu. Occasional gusts to gale-force cannot be ruled out. Rough seas are also likely to develop with the strongest winds, peaking to around 11 ft (3.5 m). Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIASFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from northwest Colombia to along southern Panama and to 08N85W to 07N95W to 08N105W to 09N113W to low pressure near 09N123W 1012 mb and to 09N127W, where it transitions to the ITCZ to 08N132W. It resumes at 08N135W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 10N to 14N between 106W-111W and from 13N to 16N between 117W-124W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure over the southern United States is building southward toward the Gulf of America. The gradient between it and relatively lower pressures to its south and southwest is currently allowing for fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec along with moderate seas. Over the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, a weak subtropical ridge centered well west of Baja California Norte dominates the area. Seas over these waters are 3 to 4 ft as indicated in a recent altimeter satellite data pass. Gentle to moderate northwest to north winds and moderate seas are occurring off Baja California Norte while light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas are noted in the offshore waters of Baja California Sur and in the Gulf of California. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the high pressure north of the area will support fresh to near gale-force northerly winds and moderate to locally rough seas well into the week. Winds are expected to pulse to gale-force at night from Mon through Wed and to near gale Thu. Rough seas will develop with these winds. Elsewhere over the majority of the waters, a relatively weak pressure gradient will lead to moderate or weaker winds and seas into the early part of the upcoming week. Looking ahead, a cold front will be west of the Baja California Norte offshore waters by the middle part of the week. The leading edge of a northwest swell set propagating out ahead of the front will begin to impact the western part of the offshore waters north of Punta Eugenia on Wed, and the entire offshore waters north of that same location by Fri building seas there to just below 12 ft. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure stretches from the western Atlantic and southeastern United States south-southwestward to the northwestern and north- central Caribbean. The related gradient is currently leading to mostly fresh northeast to east winds winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region. The latest scatterometer satellite data passes reveal that these winds reach westward to near 91W. Seas over these waters are 4 to 6 ft. Farther east, moderate to occasionally fresh northerly winds along with seas of 3 to 4 ft are present in the Gulf of Panama. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, the aforementioned high pressure will support fresh to strong northeast to east winds, mainly during late night and into the early mornings in the Gulf of Papagayo over the next several days. In the Gulf of Panama, mainly gentle to moderate north winds are expected during the period, except for winds occasionally reaching fresh speeds at night as weak low pressure meanders off Colombia. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient will generally allow for moderate or lighter winds along with slight to moderate seas across the remainder of the forecast waters through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA...Corrected A pre-frontal trough is analyzed from near 30N135W to 28N140W while a strong cold front follows the front for within about 180 nm. Isolated showers and thunderstorms are just east of the trough. An area of moderate to heavy rain with embedded scattered showers is noted east-southeast of the trough north of 26N between 132W and 137W. Moderate to fresh southwest winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present north of 28N and west of about 135W. The remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad subtropical ridge centered over the northern waters. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds along with seas of 6 to 8 ft are present from 10N to 17N and west of 110W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are evident. For the forecast, high pressure will remain in control of the weather pattern across the waters north of the ITCZ/Monsoon Trough and west of about 110W through today, with little change in winds and seas. Beginning tonight, a surface trough may form along the ITCZ near 120W as an upper cut-off low becomes more pronounced over that portion of the tropical region. Presently, an area of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms is active from 10N to 14N between 106W-111W and from 13N to 16N between 117W-124W. This feature should enhance deep convection and strengthening winds for a couple of days. At the same time, a cold front will reach the northwest waters near 30N140W, to be preceded and followed by fresh to strong winds. Low pressure that will be driving the front across the northwest waters may dive southeastward Mon and Mon night along 29N between 130W and 135W before it lifts north of the discussion area. A very tight gradient between the low and strong high pressure that builds in behind the front may result in strong to near gale-force northwest to north winds north of about 28N and between 130W and 132W on Tue morning. There is a possibility that these winds may reach gale-force. Gale-force winds are expected north of 30N at that time. Seas are expected to build to around 11 to 16 ft with these winds. By the the middle part of the week, low pressure will have intensified into storm status north of the area. The wind field with this system is expected to expand over a large area. This will bring strong to near gale-force westerly winds and rough to very rough seas over the discussion waters north of about 25N and west of 124W.