Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sat Nov 7 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 08N88W to 09N92W to 07N97W. The ITCZ stretches from 07N99W to 07N111W to 11N118W, and then from 09N123W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed from 03N to 12N and E of 95W, and from 10N to 16N between 114W and 122W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 05N to 09N between 104W and 113W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A 1025 mb high pressure system over the central United States extends a ridge across NE Mexico. A tight pressure gradient between the aforementioned ridge and lower pressures in the deep tropics supports fresh to strong northerly winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. Meanwhile, a broad subtropical ridge west of California sustains moderate to locally fresh northerly winds and seas of 7-11 ft, confirmed by recent scatterometer data. The highest seas are found west of Guadalupe Island. Moderate to locally strong NW winds and seas of 2-4 ft are occurring in the northern and central Gulf of California. Lastly, moderate to locally fresh NW winds and moderate seas are noted offshore Jalisco. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, a strong high pressure building over NE Mexico will support fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the middle of next week. Winds and seas will diminish quickly thereafter. Meanwhile, a series of pulses of moderate to large NW swell will continue to impact the Baja California waters into early next week, producing periods of rough seas up to 12 ft across the NW zones. Fresh to locally strong northerly winds are also expected in the northern Gulf of California through Sun morning. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A broad area of low pressure centered off Costa Rica continues to produce a large area of showers and thunderstorms over the offshore waters. These storms are also impacting areas from Nicaragua to Panama. Heavy rainfall may lead to life-threatening flash flooding and landslides. Please refer to your local weather agency and the International Desk at the Weather Prediction Center for more details. Moderate to fresh cyclonic winds and moderate seas are noted north of 04N and east of 90W. Locally strong winds are also noted near the areas of strong convection. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, environmental conditions are marginally conducive for further development of the broad low offshore Costa Rica over the next day or two, but strong upper-level winds are forecast to end formation chances early next week. However, this system is expected to bring areas of heavy rain to portions of Central America through the weekend. The chance of tropical cyclone formation over the next 48 hours and through the next 7 days is low. Looking ahead, fresh to locally strong winds will pulse in the Gulfs of Papagayo and Panama early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Broad ridging across the Eastern Pacific supports moderate to fresh NE-E winds and rough seas north of 10N and west of 120W. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh SE winds and seas of 7-10 ft are occurring south of 03N and east of 120W. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and seas of 6-8 ft prevail. Numerous moderate to strong convection is seen S of 03N between 115W and 135W. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the area, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds and rough seas west of 120W into early next week. Several pulses of NW swell will impact the waters north of 10N through the next several days, with rough to very rough seas up to 13-15 ft expected across the northern waters. Cross-equatorial swell will continue to produce rough seas close to the equator, lingering into the middle of next week. By midweek, strong winds and very rough seas will follow a cold front entering the NW waters, spreading southeastward over the following days.