Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Tue Jun 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 98W extending from 02N to 13N, moving westward at around 20 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 13W between 95W and 110W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the SW Caribbean Sea to across Costa Rica, reaching from 10N86W to 08N116W to low pressure, Invest EP93, near 10N133W 1008 mb to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 14N E of 94W. Scattered moderate convection is from 04N to 10N between 105W and 111W, and from 04N to 14N between 118W and 136W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends along the northern Gulf of California into Baja California Sur. The pressure gradient between the trough and surface ridging to the west is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the Baja Peninsula offshores along with moderate seas to 6 ft. In the Gulf of California, winds are gentle to moderate from the SSW and seas remain slight. A weak pressure gradient across the remainder discussion waters is supporting light to gentle winds with moderate seas to 6 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the waters of Baja California, pulsing to locally fresh speeds at night. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds are expected inside the Gulf of California and near the tip of Baja California Sur, reaching to locally fresh speeds on Wed. Light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Tehunatepec. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate E to SE winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo along with moderate seas to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds are found between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador with moderate seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds are found elsewhere with slight to moderate seas. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers and tstms are across the offsdhore waters from Costa Rica to Guatemala as described within the monsoon trough section above. Winds and seas may be higher in and near these areas of deep convection. For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail across the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Sat night. Moderate winds will pulse to fresh in diurnal offshore flow in the immediate Gulf of Papagayo Fri night and Sat night. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in SW swell are forecast elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1008 mb low, Invest EP93, is centered well southwest of the Baja California Peninsula near 10N133W with nearby convection described above within the monsoon trough section. Moderate to fresh winds are within 240 nm northern semicircle and 120 nm SE quadrant of the low center. Moderate to rough seas to 8 ft are also within that distance from the low center with the highest seas being in the NW quadrant. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail, locally rough near the monsoon trough E of 107W. For the forecast, environmental conditions around the broad area of low pressure, Invest EP93, could support some slight development over the next day while it moves northwestward at 5 to 10 kt. Thereafter, increasingly dry mid-level air is expected to limit further development. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds, and moderate seas will prevail, except seas building to rough south of and near the Equator and east of 120W in new southerly swells Wed through the end of the week. Looking ahead, yet another set of southerly swell may build seas to rough over the same area during the upcoming weekend.