Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon May 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0600 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N82W to 06N89W to 09N103W. The ITCZ continues from 09N103W to 10N110W to 08N122W to 06.5N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 09N between 90.5W and 94W, and within 15N102W to 12N102W to 07N114W to 06N125W to 12N128W to 10N123W to 10N115W to 14N104W. Similar convection is noted from 07N to 09N between 137W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Fresh to near gale-force northerly wind are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec along with 6-9 ft seas. Fresh to strong S-SW winds are in the northern Gulf of California due to a locally tight pressure gradient where seas are 4-6 ft. Seas are 3 ft or less across the remainder of the Gulf of California. Seas of 4-6 ft in mainly NW swell dominate the remainder of the waters, along with gentle winds, except moderate to fresh winds near Cabo San Lucas. Meanwhile, plentiful moisture is being advected from the deep tropics south of the Hawaiian Islands to across the north- central discussion waters and over Baja California to the SW United States. For the forecast, fresh to strong N winds and rough seas up to 9 ft will last in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this morning. Fresh to strong SW winds and moderate seas are expected in the northern Gulf of California until around sunrise, and then again tonight. Winds will increase to moderate to fresh speeds offshore Baja California tonight as a stronger ridge builds there, locally strong near Cabo San Lucas at times. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are expected through the week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds are in the immediate Gulf of Papagayo. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are moderate in S-SW swell across the waters, except slight offshore Colombia. For the forecast, abundant tropical moisture and surface convergence will prevail across the offshore waters from Colombia to Nicaragua, including the Gulf of Panama, likely through midweek, continuing to support the development of showers and thunderstorms across the area. Meanwhile, fresh easterly winds are expected in the Papagayo region through Tue night, and then again starting Thu night, mainly during the overnight and early morning hours. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas in southerly swell are expected through much of the week. Looking ahead, a set of SW swell may build seas to locally rough south of the Galapagos Islands Fri and Fri night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong upper-level winds are advecting abundant multilayer clouds across the NW and N waters into Baja California Norte and NW Mexico. A ridge continues to dominate the forecast waters north of the ITCZ. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures in the vicinity of the ITCZ supports moderate to fresh trade winds north of the ITCZ to 18N between 120W and 140W. Seas are 6-9 ft there. Elsewhere under the influence of the ridge, gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas are noted. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support fresh trades, locally strong at times, north of the ITCZ to about 20N and west of 120W through the week, with seas of 6-9 ft across this area. Mainly gentle to moderate winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere through the week, except seas building to rough south of the Equator by mid-week in southerly swell.