Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jul 3 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gale warning: Post-Tropical Cyclone Douglas is centered near 19.5N 128.5W at 1200 UTC, moving north-northwest at 6 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Seas of up to 4.0 m extend up to 150 nm N and NE of the center. Douglas is no longer a tropical storm, as moderate showers and thunderstorms are limited but persist within 300 nm N and E of center. However, recent satellite scatterometer data showed gale-force winds persisting within 150 nm in the northern semicircle of the system. Therefore, a gale warning remains in effect through midday as this remnant low moves northwestward. The remnants of Douglas are expected to gradually weaken this weekend and then open into a trough and dissipate by Sunday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Douglas NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 92W-93W, south of 20N in the NW Caribbean, moving west at 15 to 20 kt. Associated convection is described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section. A tropical wave is analyzed along 102W, south of 15N, moving west at 5-10 kt. Associated convection is also described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N75W to 07N78W to 09.5N87W to 05.5N104W to 14.5N126W to 09.5N140W. Scattered to locally numerous to strong convection is noted from 02N to 10N east of 89W, and from 02N to 13.5N between 89W and 103W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 11.5N between 103W and 127W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge extends from the NE Pacific across the Baja California waters to near the Revillagigedo Islands, and is maintaining gentle to moderate NW to N winds, with 5-7 ft seas in merging NW and SW swell, per recent satellite altimeter data. Gentle breezes and slight seas are noted elsewhere to Puerto Angel. Fresh to strong N gap winds with locally rough seas to 8 ft continue to pulse in a narrow plume across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and downstream to near 14N this morning. Scattered showers and thunderstorms are along the coasts of Chiapas and western Oaxaca, and are more numerous across the far outer waters S of 14N. For the forecast, the fresh to strong gap winds with locally rough seas will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this morning, then diminish to moderate to fresh through Sat night. Farther north, the ridge off Baja California will maintain gentle to moderate breezes through Sat, becoming moderate to occasionally fresh near the coast of Baja California starting Sun as the high pressure builds modestly into the area. Looking ahead, large SW swell is expected to reach the waters off southern Mexico early next week. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E gap winds continue to dominate the Papagayo region and extend offshore to near 92W. Seas are 6 to 8 ft across this area. Gentle to moderate SW to W breezes are noted elsewhere to the south. Cross-equatorial SW swell 7 to 8 ft dominate waters S of 05N between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador, with 5-6 ft seas elsewhere. Scattered to locally numerous strong convection continues across the waters N of 02N from Colombia to offshore of Guatemala, producing strong gusty winds and locally rough seas. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse in the Papagayo region into early next week, leading to occasional rough seas. Cross- equatorial southerly swell will dominate area seas through the weekend and keep seas moderate to the S of 05N through Mon, increasing to near 8 ft off Ecuador and the Galapagos Sun night through Tue, and 5 to 7 ft across the northern Central America early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section on the gale warning associated with Post-Tropical Cyclone Douglas. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas to 10 ft extend 360 to 480 nm N and NW from the center of Douglas. Moderate to fresh NE winds and 6-7 ft seas are noted elsewhere north of 17N and west of 120W. Farther east, fresh to locally strong winds and locally rough seas are occurring S of 12N, and accompany the tropical wave along 101W. Mostly gentle to moderate SE breezes and 5-7 ft seas in mixed swell are noted elsewhere. For the forecast, winds and seas near the remnants of Douglas will diminish through Sun night as the remnant low opens into a trough. The ridge will drift southwestward and generally persist across the region through early next week, supporting moderate to fresh trade winds farther south into the tropics. Looking ahead, weak low pressure may form about 360 nm south of the Revillagigedo Islands by Sun night. Environmental conditions could support some gradual development of this system while it moves generally westward at 10-15 kt through the early part of next week, although chances of development at this time are low.