Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Apr 30 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0130 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N86W to 07N102W to 07N122W. The ITCZ continues from 07N122W to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 10N east of 95W, and from 02N to 10N between 120W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Moderate to fresh winds prevail west of the Baja California peninsula, with moderate winds extending southward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere, including in the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 6-8 ft range west of the Baja California peninsula, and 6-7 ft over the remainder of the open waters off Mexico. Seas are 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. For the forecast, a broad ridge extending southeastward across the Baja waters will weaken slightly across the region through the remainder of the week, leading to a gradual decrease in winds and seas across the Baja waters. W to SW winds are expected across the Gulf of Tehuantepec into the upcoming weekend. Moderate to fresh W to SW gap winds will develop across the northern Gulf of California Wed and Thu nights. A cold front will move into the Baja Norte waters Sat night and reach the central Baja waters Sun, accompanied by a significant increase in winds and seas. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds are in the Gulf of Papagayo, with moderate winds in the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to locally moderate winds are elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will pulse at night across the Papagayo region through early Fri, before winds diminish through the upcoming weekend. Moderate northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama will diminish slightly Wed through Thu, then become light and variable into the weekend. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA.... A broad ridge dominates the regional Pacific waters N of 10N and W of 110W. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting fresh to locally strong NE trade winds N of the ITCZ to 20N and W of 130W. Moderate to fresh winds are N of the ITCZ to 20N between 120W and 130W. Seas over these waters are in the 7-9 ft rang. Moderate anticyclonic winds dominate the remaining waters N of the ITCZ and W of 110W, with seas of 6 to 8 ft in N to NE swell. S of the ITCZ/monsoon trough, light to gentle winds and seas of 5-6 ft in subsiding S-SW swell prevail. For the forecast, the broad high pressure ridge currently dominating the region W of 110W will remain in place through early Wed, then begin to weaken and shift SE, ahead of an approaching frontal system. Little change in winds and wave heights are expected N of the ITCZ through early Wed, before a decreasing trend ensues from the middle to end of the week. A new cold front will enter the NW waters Fri evening, and move E-SE and reach from 30N121W to 26N140W by Sat evening. Expect fresh to locally strong N to NE winds and seas building 8 to 10 ft behind the front.