Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Jul 17 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0730 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Elida: Tropical Storm Elida is centered near 16.1N 120.2W at 17/0900 UTC, moving west at 9 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are currently around 19 to 20 ft, or 6.0 m. A recent altimeter pass aided in the associated sea radii analysis. Dry air has been impacting the system. Numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 300 nm in the SE semicircle. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted within 210 nm in the NW semicircle. A band of convection is displaced to the northeast of Elida, with scattered moderate isolated strong between 180 nm and 570 nm in the NE quadrant, also enhanced by the nearby monsoon trough. Elida is moving toward the west. A turn toward the west- northwest and northwest is expected later today, followed by a north-northwestward motion at a slightly faster forward speed by Sun. Strengthening is forecast during the next day or so, and Elida could become a hurricane later today. Weakening is expected to begin over the weekend and continue into early next week. Swells generated by Elida will affect portions of the west coast of the Baja California peninsula through this weekend. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Elida NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Central and Western East Pacific: A tropical wave located several hundred nautical miles south-southwest of the coast of southern Mexico near 104W is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms as described with the monsoon trough below. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of this system, and a tropical depression is likely to form by this weekend while it moves west-northwestward to northwestward at 10 to 15 kt over the central portion of the Eastern Pacific. This system currently has a medium chance of tropical cyclone formation through 48 hours, and a high chance through the next 7 days. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, expect increasing winds and building seas to impact portions of the waters well offshore southwest Mexico to the Revillagigedo Islands this weekend into early next week. Please read the latest TROPICAL WEATHER OUTLOOK issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATWOEP.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is near 104W, from 01N to 17N just offshore of the coast of southwestern Mexico, moving westward at around 10 kt. Any nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below, and please see the SPECIAL FEATURES section above for more details, including the potential for tropical cyclone formation. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from low pressure over northern Colombia at 10.5N75W to 09N84W to 06.5N96W to low pressure, 1009 mb, near 10N104W to 18N111W, then resumes southwest of Elida from 14N122.5W to 10.5N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 77W and 100W, from 09N to 13N between 95W and 101W, from 14N to 17N between 97W and 100W, within 420 nm SSW of the monsoon trough between 100W and 111W, and from 06N to 10N between 117W and 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Elida, centered about 715 nautical miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and on a tropical wave near 104W with the potential for tropical cyclone formation. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas associated with the periphery of Tropical Storm Elida continue to impact the waters near the Clarion Islands from 17N to 22N between 112W and 116W, with combined sea heights of 8 to 12 ft. Fresh to strong N to NE winds and moderate to locally rough seas are in the Gulf of Tehuantepec per recent ASCAT-B scatterometer data, due to a locally tight pressure gradient and nocturnal gap wind flow, with seas building to near 8 ft. A weak ridge prevails across the remainder of the offshore waters from the northwest to the southeast in the wake and to the east of Elida resulting in moderate or weaker winds. Moderate seas prevail also away from Elida and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with slight seas in the Gulf of California. Active convection is present well offshore of southern and southwest Mexico near the monsoon trough as described above. For the forecast, other than the chance for tropical cyclone formation with the tropical wave currently near 104W discussed above, Tropical Storm Elida will strengthen to a hurricane near 16.7N 121.4W this afternoon, then continue to move away from the offshore waters to 17.9N 122.8W Sat morning. Outer associated conditions will improve across the area Sat. As Elida moves toward the NW, the ridge over Baja California will weaken leading to mainly light to gentle winds. However, seas generating by Elida will propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California today through Sun. Expect building seas of 8 to 10 ft, mainly across the outer forecast waters. In the Gulf of California, gentle to moderate winds and slight seas will prevail, except for locally fresh winds in the northern Gulf at times. Fresh to strong northerly winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the next several days, with locally rough seas at times. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds continue across the Papagayo region and downwind to near 89W as seen by a recent ASCAT-B pass which missed the immediate Gulf of Papagayo but did show the winds downstream. Moderate to fresh easterly winds are noted elsewhere from 09N to 12N to the west of 86W, and near the Gulf of Fonseca. Seas are 6 to 9ft downstream of Papagayo. Moderate to locally fresh N to NE winds are in the Gulf of Panama, and near the Azuero Peninsula, per both ASCAT-B and ASCAT-C. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas, primarily in S to SW swell, dominate the remainder of the offshore waters, except slight seas in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and nearshore western Colombia. Active convection is present near the monsoon trough across much of the offshore waters north of Ecuador as described above, with locally higher winds and seas possible. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas will persist across the Papagayo region through early next week, with moderate to fresh NE winds pulsing near the Gulf of Fonseca. Moderate seas in SW swell are expected elsewhere, except in the immediate lee of the Galapagos Islands and nearshore western Colombia where slight seas are forecast. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds may pulse in the Gulf of Panama at night. Moderate or weaker winds are expected elsewhere into early next week, possibly freshening south of the monsoon trough by midweek. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Tropical Storm Elida, centered about 715 nautical miles southwest of the southern tip of Baja California, and on a tropical wave near 103.5W with the potential for tropical cyclone formation. A ridge dominates most of the waters north of the monsoon trough and north and west of Elida. The pressure gradient between the ridge and Elida supports moderate to fresh N to NE winds from 12N to 30N west of 120W per recent ASCAT scatterometer data, along with seas of 5 to 7 ft, locally to 8 ft near 140W from 15N to 25N. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere, with 5 to 7 ft in mixed swells. Very active convection is along the monsoon trough to the east-southeast of Elida as described above. For the forecast, other than the chance for tropical cyclone formation with the tropical wave currently near 104W discussed above, Tropical Storm Elida will strengthen to a hurricane near 16.7N 121.4W this afternoon, move to 17.9N 122.8W Sat morning, 19.3N 124.1W Sat afternoon, 21.0N 125.3W Sun morning, weaken to a tropical storm near 22.8N 126.4W Sun afternoon, and 24.9N 127.2W Mon morning. Elida will become post-tropical as it moves to 29.4N 128.7W early Tue. Seas are forecast to build to rough near 03.4S120W by the start of the weekend as winds freshen south of the monsoon trough in the wake of Elida and as the tropical wave near 104W potentially develops. These seas will gradually spread northward over the south-central waters as that occurs. Little change in marine conditions is expected across the remainder of the open waters.