Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Dec 24 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will support fresh to near gale-force northerly gap winds and moderate to rough seas in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through the end of the week. Winds in Tehuantepec will pulse to gale-force tonight. Seas will peak around 11 ft (3.5 M) with the strongest winds. Conditions will improve by the weekend. Northern Waters Gale Warning: A gale force low north of the area near 38N135W will move SE today and closer to the discussion waters. Gale force winds S of the low will move into the forecast waters this afternoon, mainly N of 29N and W of 130W. The low will then shift NE and further from the area this evening, with associated gale force winds shifting N of the area. The low will then weaken Thu into Fri, with winds over the discussion area diminishing below strong speeds Thu night. This system will generate a new set of large NW swell with very rough seas. Combined seas of 12 to 19 ft (3.5-5.5 M) will spread over the northern waters, covering much of the waters N of 24N and W of 125W by Thu before starting to subside. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 06N94W to 06N104W. The ITCZ extends from 06N104W to 09N130W to beyond 07N140W. No significant convection is noted near the monsoon trough or ITCZ. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features section for more details on a Gale Warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong southerly winds, and seas of 6-9 ft, are NW of Punta Eugenia. Elsewhere, moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec, fresh to strong southerly winds NW of Punta Eugenia will diminish today. Northwest swell will propagate into the waters north of Punta Eugenia today into Thu. A reinforcing swell will spread rough seas across the offshore waters of the Baja California peninsula by the end of the week into the weekend. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds will develop in the northern Gulf of California tonight into Thu. Moderate to fresh NW winds are expected in the central and southern Gulf of California Thu night into the weekend. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong winds are over the Papagayo region, with moderate to fresh winds extending downstream to near 91W. Moderate to locally fresh winds are in the Gulf of Panama. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of 04N. Moderate winds are found south of 04N. Seas are in the 3-5 ft range, except reaching 6 ft in the Gulf of Papagayo. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure north of the area and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough will support pulsing fresh to strong northeast to east gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo over the next several days. Mainly gentle to moderate north winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama during the period, occasionally reaching fresh speeds at night. Moderate or lighter winds and slight to moderate seas are expected elsewhere through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please read the Special Features section for more details on the Gale Warning in the northern waters. A cold front extends from 30N123W to 22N128W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is within 60 nm east of this front. Fresh to strong winds are within 60 nm east of the front. fresh to strong winds prevail west of the front. Large NW swell is moving through the northern waters, with seas of 8-13 ft NW of a line from 18N140W to 30N120W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas. For the forecast, aside from the gale warning discussed above, winds will be moderate or weaker through the period. Large NW swell will spread rough seas SE across the discussion waters. Seas greater than 8 ft will cover much of the waters N of 10N and W of 110W on Sat before seas start to subside. Fresh to strong winds and rough seas may develop late this weekend as the pressure gradient tightens between the ridge and another surface trough.