Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sun Jul 5 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0324 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed along 109W, south of 17N, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Associated convection is described below in the Intertropical Convergence Zone/Monsoon Trough section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 07N77W to 08N83.5W. The ITCZ extends from 10N87W to 09.5N107.5W, then resumes from 09N112.5W to 07N130W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is noted from N of 05N and E of 86.5W, from 05N to 08.5N between 88W and 98W, from 08N to 15N between 99W and 120W, and from 01N to 12N between 128W and 139W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad ridge extends from the NE Pacific across the Baja California waters to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure over Mexico are supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds offshore Baja California. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate NW to N winds prevail, with 5-7 ft seas in merging NW and SW swell, except for light winds and seas 1 to 3 ft over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the ridge extending into the Baja California waters will strengthens modestly across the area tonight through Tue night, leading to moderate to fresh winds across the Baja California waters. Moderate gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through tonight, then diminish through Mon. Looking ahead, cross-equatorial SW swell will reach the waters off southern Mexico on Mon, building seas to around 7 ft. Expect fresh southerly winds across the northern Gulf of California Tue and Wed becoming strong on Thu. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Large clusters of moderate to strong thunderstorms are depicted across the waters N of 06N and across Panama, and Costa Rica, and extend northward into the SW Caribbean. Fresh to locally strong NE gap winds continuing across the Papagayo region and extends offshore to 92W, where seas are 5-7 ft. Mostly gentle to moderate S to SW winds are noted elsewhere S of 10N, along with seas seas of 4-6 ft in cross-equatorial SW swell. For the forecast, the active thunderstorms across the eastern waters are expected to generally shift northward tonight into Sun and into the SW Caribbean. Fresh NE to E gap winds across the Papagayo region will pulse to strong tonight, and then again Mon night, Tue night, and Wed night leading to rough seas. Large cross- equatorial southerly swell will move into the waters off Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands late Sun through Tue, building seas to 8 to 9 ft, and 6 to 7 ft across much of the remaining waters farther N. The combination of the southerly swell with shorter period seas associated with gap winds will allow combined seas to build to 8 ft offshore of northern Central America Tue through Wed. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge continues across the NE Pacific and north of the area waters tonight, extending southeastward to the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the remnant low of Douglas, now a 1011 mb low near 23N129.5W, is producing fresh to strong winds around the low, from 22N to 28N between 128W and 133W. Peak seas are still to 11 ft across the NW quadrant of this low. The ridge draping over this low pressure area continues to support mostly gentle to moderate NE to E winds elsewhere north of 20N and west of 120W, with 6-8 ft seas in a mix of swell. East of 120W, a long plume of fresh E winds and 6-8 ft seas emerging from the Papagayo gap area is reaching as far west as 125W, from 07N to 15N. Gentle breezes are noted elsewhere east of 120W. Wave heights are 6-8 ft there in SW swell. Active thunderstorms continue about the tropical wave along 109W, between 100W and 118W. For the forecast, winds and seas near the remnants of Douglas will gradually diminish through Sun night as the remnant low moves NW, weakens and opens into a trough. The ridge will drift southwestward and generally persist across the region through early next week, supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds farther south into the tropics. Looking ahead, the tropical wave along 109W is producing disorganized shower activity. Development of this system appears unlikely as it moves westward across the central and western portions of the East Pacific basin during the next several days. Formation chance through 7 days is low.