Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Oct 23 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2045 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Vance is centered near 11.2N 102.3W at 23/2100 UTC, moving northwest at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 971 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 90 kt with gusts to 110 kt. Seas are peaking near 33 ft or 10.5 m. Numerous moderate to strong convection is within 120 nm of the center. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 03N to 16N between 95W and 106W. Vance is moving toward the north- northwest, and this motion is expected to continue through the weekend. Steady intensification will continue during the next 24 hours, and Vance is forecast to become a major hurricane tonight. Swells generated by Vance are expected to begin affecting portions of the coast of southern and southwestern Mexico this weekend and continue into next week. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure over Mexico and Hurricane Vance is supporting minimal gale force northerly gap winds funneling into the Gulf of Tehuantepec, accompanied by rough seas. Winds will pulse to gale force tonight across the Tehuantepec region as Vance further intensifies. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for further details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 09N95W. It resumes west of Vance near 09N105W to 06N113W. The ITCZ extends from 06N113W to 04N135W to 05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 00N to 09N and east of 90W, and from 00N to 07N between 125W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Vance, and a Gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Aside from the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Vance, moderate to fresh winds are west of the Baja California peninsula extending southward to near the Revillagigedo Islands, with moderate seas. Gentle to moderate winds, and slight to moderate seas are over the Gulf of California. Light to gentle winds, and moderate seas are elsewhere. For the forecast, Vance will move to 11.9N 102.6W Sat morning, 12.9N 103.0W Sat afternoon, 13.9N 103.3W Sun morning, 14.9N 103.6W Sun afternoon, 15.7N 103.9W Mon morning, and 16.1N 104.1W Mon afternoon. Vance will change little in intensity as it moves to near 16.8N 104.2W Tue afternoon. Meanwhile, winds will pulse to gale force tonight across the Tehuantepec region as Vance further intensifies with a tight pressure gradient over the region. Moderate to fresh NW-N winds offshore Baja California Sur will pulse and expand to across the Baja California waters through tonight before diminishing. Rough seas in northerly swells offshore Baja California Norte will spread across those waters tonight through Sat. Moderate seas will prevail elsewhere away from Vance and the Gulf of Tehuantepec, except slight in the Gulf of California. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE winds, and moderate seas, are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo. Moderate winds, and moderate to rough seas, are near the Galapagos Islands, and between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Gentle winds and moderate seas prevail elsewhere across the discussion waters. For the forecast, fresh winds will pulse nightly in the Papagayo region. Rough seas in southerly swell, and moderate to fresh winds, will prevail offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands through early Sat. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See Special Features section above for information on Hurricane Vance. Moderate to locally fresh NE-E winds and moderate to rough seas in northerly swells are from 10N to 20N and W of 120W. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with moderate seas. For the forecast, Vance will move to 11.9N 102.6W Sat morning, 12.9N 103.0W Sat afternoon, 13.9N 103.3W Sun morning, 14.9N 103.6W Sun afternoon, 15.7N 103.9W Mon morning, and 16.1N 104.1W Mon afternoon. Vance will change little in intensity as it moves to near 16.8N 104.2W Tue afternoon. Meanwhile, fresh winds and rough seas over the W-central waters will decrease through the evening. Rough northerly swells will push S of 30N in the N-central waters Sat. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas will persist elsewhere. Swell generated from a frontal system just WNW of the discussion waters may bring rough seas to the SE of 30N140W late in the weekend into early next week.