Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Thu Oct 29 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Vance is centered near 21.6N 108.8W at 29/1500 UTC, moving north at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 14-15 ft. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 20N-25N east of 115W. The motion to the north is expected to continue until Vance dissipates tonight or early Friday. Weakening is forecast, and Vance is expected to become a post-tropical remnant low later today. Swells generated by Vance will affect coastal portions of southwestern and west-central Mexico, as well as the southern portion of the Baja California Peninsula, during the next day or so. These swells are likely to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Vance NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from coastal Costa Rica near 10N83W to 03N100W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02S-07N east of 83W and south of 10N west of 118W. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring from 03N-07N between 95W-115W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section above for information on recently Tropical Storm Vance between Cabo Corrientes and the entrance to the Gulf of California and the southern tip of Baja California Sur. Aside from Vance, fresh to moderate N to NE gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of California with seas 8-9 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with 5-7 ft over the Pacific waters, 1-2 ft over the N and central Gulf of California, and 3-7 ft over the S Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Vance will weaken to a remnant low near 22.9N 108.5W at the entrance to the Gulf of California this evening, and dissipate Fri morning. Fresh to locally strong N gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through early next week. A developing extratropical cyclone should move into the waters west of the Baja California peninsula and over the N Gulf of California Sat night into Sun with fresh to locally strong SE to SW winds. Looking ahead, fresh NW winds should occur over the Gulf of California on Mon in the wake of the extratropical cyclone. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of Papagayo region and fresh N winds are observed over the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 4-6 ft. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02S-07N east of 83W. For the forecast, fresh to locally strong NE to E gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region should continue through early next week. Fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama should continue through Fri before weakening. Large long-period SW swell will reach the equatorial waters Fri before diminishing on Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... The pressure gradient between weak ridging north of our waters and lower pressure over the monsoon trough is forcing only moderate or weaker trades across the forecast waters. Large long-period SW swell is reaching northward across the equator to 05N between 100W-120W. Elsewhere seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast, an extratropical cyclone will form near 28N137W by tomorrow morning and move slowly eastward. By Fri night, fresh to strong S to SW winds will develop south of a warm front and fresh to strong N to NE winds should occur north of a cold front. The system should move over the offshore zones west of the Baja California peninsula on Sun with winds and seas diminishing by Sun night.