Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jul 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Genevieve is centered near 22.1N 128.6W at 31/1500 UTC, moving west-northwest at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 50 kt with gusts to 60 kt. Peak seas are near 26 ft or 8.0 m. Scattered moderate convection within 90 nm in the NW semicircle, and 30 nm in the SE semicircle of the system. Genevieve is expected to maintain a steady weakening trend while continuing on a west- northwest track through the weekend. The system is forecast to become post- tropical late this weekend. Swells generated by Genevieve are affecting portions of the Baja California Peninsula and Southern California. These swells will persist for the next day or so, and are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. A depiction of rip current risk for the United States can be found at: hurricanes.gov/graphics_ep2.shtml?ripCurrents Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Genevieve NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 85W, N of 02N into the Nicaragua and Honduras, moving westward at around 5 to 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 115W, from 02N to 18N, moving westward around 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 06N95W. The ITCZ extends from 06N95W to 09N112W, and from 06N115W to 10N122W. A segment of the central Pacific monsoon trough extends from southwest of Genevieve near 14N130W to beyond 09N140W. Numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is active from 05N to 08N east of 80W. Scattered moderate convection is also active from 03N to 07N between 80W and 95W, and from 07N to 12N between 117W and 121W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... An early morning scatterometer satellite pass confirmed fresh to strong gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. These winds are likely due to higher pressure over south-central Mexico and lower pressure farther south into the tropics. Seas are estimated to be 5-7 ft in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The satellite data also showed fresh NW winds off Baja California Sur between Cabo San Lazaro and Punta Eugenia, moderate winds elsewhere off Baja California, on the western edge of ridging farther west offshore. Gentle to moderate SE winds are noted across the Gulf of California with 1-3 ft seas. Light to gentle breezes and 3-5 ft combined seas in W swell are noted elsewhere off southern Mexico. For the forecast, the fresh to locally strong gap in the Gulf of Tehuantepec will diminish today. Moderate to locally fresh NW winds are expected to pulse tonight nearshore Baja California. Fresh SE to S winds may pulse nightly in the northern Gulf of California, possibly reaching strong speeds Sat night. NW swell may lead to rough seas offshore Baja California Norte Sun night and Mon. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong northeasterly gap winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are over and downstream the Gulf of Papagayo region. Moderate to locally fresh gap wind are in the Gulf of Panama. Gentle to moderate winds are noted between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds will pulse across the Papagayo region through Sun, with occasionally rough seas. Moderate to fresh winds will then pulse thereafter. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected across the remainder of the waters through the period. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on Tropical Storm Genevieve. For waters not being impacted by Genevieve, high pressure is centered just northwest of the area. The pressure gradient between the area of high pressure and Genevieve is supporting moderate to fresh NE winds to the northwest of Genevieve. Seas in this region are in the 7 to 9 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, prevail over the remainder of the discussion waters. For the forecast, the center of Tropical Storm Genevieve will move to 22.6N 130.6W this evening, 23.4N 133.5W Sat morning, 24.2N 136.4W Sat evening, 25.1N 139.1W Sun morning, weaken to a remnant low west of area by late Sun. Away from Genevieve, little change in marine conditions is forecast through the weekend. Rough northerly swell off California is likely to push southward into the waters off Baja California Norte north of 27N and east of 130W by the end of the weekend into early next week. New large southerly swell may build south of the Equator and west of 100W beginning Tue night.