Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Jun 16 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 82W extending from 03N northward to across the border of Panama and Costa Rica and into the SW Caribbean Sea, moving westward at around 20 kt. Nearby convection is described with the monsoon trough below. The axis of a tropical wave is now analyzed near 102W extending from 03N to 17N just offshore SW Mexico, based on the latest satellite imagery, model diagnostics, and Hovmoller analysis charts. Nearby convection is described with the monsoon trough below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the SW Caribbean Sea near 10N75W to across Costa Rica, reaching from the Gulf of Papagayo at 11N86W to 12N93W to 09N112W. The ITCZ extends from 09N112W to 07N118W to 11N134W just to the E of low pressure, Invest EP93 near 11N135.5W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 300 nm S-SW of the monsoon trough to the E of 94W, from 10N to 15N between 94W and 101W, and from 03N to 14.5N between 94W and 111W. Scattered moderate convection is from 10N to 13N between 111W and 116W, from 04N to 09.5N between 116W and 119W. Similar convection is noted within 240 nm of Invest EP93 in the NW semicircle. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from the northern Gulf of California southeastward across the Gulf of California to near Cabo Corrientes. The pressure gradient between the trough and surface ridging to the west is supporting moderate to locally fresh NW winds across the Baja Peninsula offshores along with moderate seas to 7 ft in S-SW swell. In the Gulf of California, winds are gentle to moderate from the SSW and seas remain slight north of the entrance. A weak pressure gradient across the remainder discussion waters is supporting light to gentle winds with moderate seas to 6 ft in S-SW swell. Active convection is present from well south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec as described above. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the waters of Baja California, pulsing to locally fresh speeds at night. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds are expected inside the Gulf of California and near the tip of Baja California Sur, reaching to locally fresh speeds Wed into early Thu. Light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Tehunatepec. Moderate seas in mainly southerly swell will prevail through the next several days, slight in the Gulf of California. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate E to SE winds are ongoing Offshore Gulf of Papagayo along with moderate seas. Mainly light to gentle winds under a weak pressure gradient prevail across the remainder of the waters along with slight to moderate seas. Otherwise, scattered heavy showers and tstms are across the offshore waters from western Colombia northwestward to offshore Guatemala as described within the monsoon trough section above. Winds and seas may be higher in and near these areas of deep convection. For the forecast, gentle to occasionally moderate S to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail across the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Sun night. Moderate winds will pulse to fresh in diurnal offshore flow in the immediate Gulf of Papagayo beginning Fri night. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in SW swell are forecast elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1008 mb low, Invest EP93, is centered well east-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands near 11N135.5W with nearby convection described above within the monsoon trough section above. Moderate to fresh winds are within 240 nm northern semicircle and 120 nm SE quadrant of the low center. Moderate to rough seas to around 9 ft are also within that distance from the low center with the highest seas being in the NW quadrant. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail, locally rough near the monsoon trough E of 105W. For the forecast, some slight development of the low pressure system, Invest EP93, is still possible today, although the possibility of formation is diminishing as the system moves into a less favorable environment with an increasingly drier mid-level airmass and increasing upper-level winds. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds, and moderate seas will prevail, except seas building to rough south of and near the Equator and east of 120W in new southerly swells tonight and early Wed through the end of the week. Winds may pulse to fresh in the west-central waters at times. Looking ahead, yet another set of southerly swell may build seas to rough over the same area during the upcoming weekend.