Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Nov 9 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74.5W to 09.5N86W to 05N92W. The ITCZ stretches from 05N92W to 04.5N108W to 12N124W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02S to 00N E of 92W. Scattered moderate convection is observed from 02N to 06.5N between 97W and 121W. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 09.5N to 17N and between 116W and 132W, and from 00N to 10N west of 135W, and south of 02.5N between 123W and 132W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure remains centered west of the area along 140W with a ridge extending east and then southeastward into the area waters between the Revillagigedo Islands and southwestern Mexico. This pattern is supporting moderate or weaker N to NE winds across the Baja California offshore waters, where seas are 6-8 ft in NW swell, except to 9 ft northwest of Isla Guadalupe. Light to gentle northerly winds generally prevail across the Gulf of California. This ridge is also yielding gentle NW to N winds across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters from Cabo Corrientes to Puerto Angel. Recent satellite altimeter satellite data showed seas of 4 to 7 ft in mixed NW and SW swell across this area. High pressure extending across the Gulf of America continues to force fresh to strong northerly winds and seas of 5-8 ft across the Gulf of Tehuantepec and extending southward to 13N. For the forecast, fresh to strong northerly winds and rough seas to 8 ft will pulse at night across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Wed morning. Another gap wind event may develop in the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thu night, possibly reaching gale-force into the upcoming weekend. Rough seas in NW swell across the offshore waters of Baja California will diminish through midweek. Looking ahead, fresh to strong winds and rough seas approaching 12 ft may reach the offshore waters of Baja California late in the week, associated with a frontal system. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A weakening 1010 mb low pressure, Invest EP96, is located near 10.5N90W, or about 180 nm south of western El Salvador. Scattered showers are occurring within 90 nm across the northern semicircle of this system, but continue to diminish in coverage and intensity. Fresh to locally strong NE to E winds and seas to 8 ft prevail within 120 nm N of the center. Strong wind shear will continue to weaken this low. To the eat of the low, fresh easterly gap winds extend from the Papagayo region to near the low, where seas are 4 to 6 ft. Strong convection across the Nicaragua waters and coasts has ended. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4-6 ft in mixed SW and W swell, per recent satellite altimeter data. Clusters of scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from the equator southward to 03S east of 93W and the Galapagos Islands to the coast of Ecuador. For the forecast, the low center, EP96, south of El Salvador, will move westward and continue to weaken. The threat of widespread heavy rainfall associated with that system appears to have ended. Meanwhile, fresh to locally strong easterly trade winds will funnel across the Papagayo region and extend to 90W through midweek. Moderate to locally fresh winds will pulse in the Gulf of Panama through the middle of the week. Otherwise, moderate or weaker winds, and moderate seas in mixed SW to W swell, will prevail. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad subtropical ridge centered on a 1021 mb high near 29N140W dominates the eastern Pacific basin, and supports moderate to fresh easterly winds and rough to very rough seas to 13 ft in NW swell to the north of 10N and west of 110W. A broad surface trough from 10N130W to 16N121W is producing scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection from 09.5N to 17N and between 116W and 132W, where fresh winds prevail. Meanwhile, moderate to fresh SE winds and seas to 9 ft are occurring south of 03N and east of 120W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the surface ridge will amplify some, increasing the trades to fresh from 10N-22N west of 125W tonight into Wed. The large NW swell in the western waters will reach from 20N140W to 20N120W Tue night. The mixed swell over the equatorial waters will persist for the next several days. Looking ahead, a strong cold front will reach our NW border at 30N140W early Wed, bringing with it fresh to strong NW winds and very large seas north of 20N through the end of the week. Reinforcing NW swell may arrive Fri to the NW waters producing rough to very rough seas.