Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Sat Jan 24 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The next gap wind event across the Tehunatepec region is slated to begin early Mon morning as a ridge builds across the eastern slopes of the Sierra Madre Mountains in Mexico, behind a cold front moving across the Gulf of America. Wind are forecast to suddenly increase to 35-40 kt, with seas building to 9-12 ft by late Mon morning. Looking ahead, winds will further increase to minimal storm force by Mon night with seas building to 20-22 ft. A Storm Warning will likely be issued tonight. Large seas generated from this strong gap wind event will spread well away from the Tehuantepec area, with seas 12 ft or greater reaching as far south as 10N by Tue morning. Marine interests transiting across or in the Gulf of Tehuantepec early next week should be aware of this upcoming gap wind event, and take the necessary action to avoid this hazardous marine conditions over the affected waters. Winds are forecast to diminish below storm force by Tue morning but strong gale force winds of 40-45 kt will persist. Gale conditions are then forecast to continue through early Wed morning. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more information on this event. Of note: The monthly distribution of Tehuantepec events shows that the largest number of gale force events occurs in December. Storm-force events occur most often in January. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 10N75W to 07N90W to 06N101W. The ITCZ continues from 06N101W to 07N125W to beyond 07N140W. A surface trough is within the ITCZ and runs from 12N115W to 06N119W. Scattered moderate convection is noted near the trough axis from 07N to 15N between 112W and 122W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough is moving across Baja California Sur and the southern Gulf of California generating fresh to strong winds and moderate seas. A band of manly low clouds, with possible showers is associated with the trough. Elsewhere across the Baja California peninsula, moderate NW winds are noted with moderate seas in NW swell. Light to gentle winds and moderate seas in NW swell dominate the remainder of the Mexican offshore forecast waters, including the Tehuantepec area. For the forecast, the aforementioned surface trough will move inland Mexico tonight while dissipating. The associated winds will diminish to 15 kt by this evening. Looking ahead, the next gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region is slated to begin Mon morning with winds rapidly increasing to strong gale force by Mon evening. Winds will further increase to storm force by Mon evening. Please, see the Special Features section for more information. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are across the Papagayo region and downwind to about 90W. Seas are 5 to 7 ft within these winds. Moderate N winds with slight to moderate seas prevail in the Gulf of Panama. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle with moderate seas in mixed SW and NW swell. For the forecast, high pressure N of the area will support fresh to strong NE to E winds and rough seas in the Papagayo region through Sun morning. Fresh to strong winds in this region will resume again Mon night and reach near gale force speeds by Tue evening with rough seas. Moderate to fresh N winds will continue to pulse in the Gulf of Panama through Tue night. Elsewhere, winds will be moderate or weaker through the middle of the next week. Seas generated by a strong gap wind event in the Tehuantepec region will propagate across the offshore forecast waters of Guatemala and El Salvador beginning Mon evening. The highest seas in the 12 to 18 ft range in NW swell are expected on Tue. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends southward from a 1025 mb high pressure located near 39N136W across the northern forecast waters, particularly N of 15N and W of 120W. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is promoting and area of moderate to fresh trades N of the ITCZ to about 15N and W of 130W. Seas are near 8 ft within these winds based on altimeter data. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker and seas are moderate in mixed NE wind wave and long period NW swell. For the forecast, high pressure will build southward across the forecast region over the weekend with a high pressure cell developing near 32N135W. The high pressure will move E by Mon evening as a cold front approaches the NW corner of the forecast waters. Fresh to strong winds are expected on either side of the front by Mon evening. The front will reach from 30N135W to 25N140W by Mon night, and from 30N133W to 24N140W by Tue morning. Rough seas are expected in the wake of the front.