Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Sep 11 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Norbert is centered near 16.6N 124.7W at 11/1500 UTC, moving west at 12 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 996 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Peak seas are 20 ft within 150 nm NE quadrant of the center. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 16N to 20N between 123W and 126W. Similar convective activity is from 11N to 14N between 119W and 121W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is present elsewhere from 16N to 20N between 121W and 123W. Norbert is moving toward the west, and this general motion is expected to continue over the next few days. Norbert could become a hurricane this weekend. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Fourteen-E NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave has its axis along 112W, south of 20N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. A 1009 mb surface low is along the wave axis near 12N112W. Scattered moderate to isolated convection is present from 10N to 17N between 100W and 115W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N83W to 09N95W to 11N111W, then continues SW of Norbert from 11N126W to 12N140W. In addition to the convection associated with T.S. Norbert and the tropical wave, scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is found from 02N to 08.5N E of 80W to the coast of Colombia, and from 00N to 11N W of 128W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Tropical Storm Norbert located well SW of Baja California. The most recent scatterometer satellite pass captured fresh to locally strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Seas in these waters are 5 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, high pressure of 1019 mb located 31N123W extends a ridge southeastward across the waters N of 20N and W of 110W. Moderate easterly winds and moderate seas are occurring west of the Revillagigedo Islands as Tropical Storm Norbert continues to pull away. Elsewhere in the Mexican offshore waters, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. Scattered showers with embedded thunderstorms continue to affect the central and southern parts of the Gulf of California and the nearshore waters of Baja California Sur. Gusty winds and higher seas are likely occurring with these storms. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Norbert will move to 16.7N 126.3W this evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.0N 128.4W Sat morning, 17.5N 130.4W Sat evening, 18.0N 132.3W Sun morning, 18.2N 134.3W Sun evening, and 18.4N 136.4W Mon morning. Norbert will weaken to a tropical storm W of area near 18.2N 140.7W early Tue. As Norbert continues to move away from the Revillagigedo Islands, a stronger ridge will build across the offshore waters of Baja California, bringing moderate to locally fresh NW to N winds Sun into early next week. Winds will also increase across the northern Gulf of California today and tonight, then again Sun through Mon night due to the pressure gradient between the ridge and the meandering trough that is in place in that area. Otherwise, fresh to strong N to NE gap winds will pulse again in the Tehuantepec region early next week. Looking ahead, showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure are located several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Gradual development of this system is anticipated, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward to westward over the central and western portions of the East Pacific. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the area forces fresh to strong easterly trade winds and rough seas across the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending downstream to near 89W. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. Scattered to numerous showers and thunderstorms are occurring off Panama and Colombia. Gusty winds and higher seas are likely occurring with these storms. For the forecast, a ridge north of the area will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong easterly winds and moderate to rough seas across the Papagayo region through early next week. Meanwhile, gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas are expected over the waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos through at least the middle of next week. Moderate or lighter winds and moderate seas in long period SW swell are forecast elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for more information about Tropical Storm Norbert located well SW of Baja California. Away from the impacts of T.S. Norbert, moderate to locally fresh SE winds and rough seas are found south of 04N and west of the Galapagos Islands to about 120W. High pressure located 31N123W extends a ridge southeastward across the waters N of 20N and W of 110W supporting moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Norbert will move to 16.7N 126.3W this evening, strengthen to a hurricane near 17.0N 128.4W Sat morning, 17.5N 130.4W Sat evening, 18.0N 132.3W Sun morning, 18.2N 134.3W Sun evening, and 18.4N 136.4W Mon morning. Norbert will weaken to a tropical storm W of area near 18.2N 140.7W early Tue. Elsewhere, a cross equatorial swell will persist over the next several days producing seas to 9 ft south of 04N. A tight pressure gradient will result in locally fresh N winds and rough seas in the NE waters late this weekend into early next week. Meanwhile, Showers and thunderstorms associated with a broad area of low pressure are located several hundred miles southwest of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Gradual development of this system is anticipated, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this weekend or early next week while it moves generally west-northwestward to westward over the central and western portions of the East Pacific. This system has a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days.