Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Feb 18 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Significant Large NW Swell: New large and significant swell with seas of 12 ft or greater is just N of 30N and propagating southward, while rough seas cover a large area ahead of it, across the waters N fo 08N and W of 114W. Seas of 12 ft or greater will cover the waters from 26N to 30N between Baja California and 140W by this evening while peaking around 15 ft near 30N between 120W and 130W, then gradually decaying back below 12 ft by Thu evening. Looking ahead, another significant and large NW swell event is possible in the NW waters late in the upcoming weekend into early next week. Please refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast at website: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A trough extends from 08.5N84W to 01N97W. The ITCZ extends from 01N97W to 00.5N120W to beyond 04.5N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 06N between 85W and 95W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The tail end of a cold front that was previously over NW Mexico to the southern Gulf of California has dissipated over our area. High pressure centered NW of the area extends a ridge from NW to SE across the offshore waters. A locally tight pressure gradient between the ridging and troughing near SW Mexico supports fresh to strong NW-N winds near Cabo Corrientes. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker elsewhere, except locally fresh possibly nearshore of Baja California from Punta Eugenia southward, as well as from the southern Gulf of California to near Cabo Corrientes. Rough seas of 8 ft or greater are spreading offshore Baja California from near Cabo San Lazaro northwestward. Seas are mainly moderate elsewhere, except slight in the majority of the Gulf of California as well as in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, high pressure will continue build in across the area waters through Fri, producing fresh to locally strong northerly winds nearshore Baja California through Thu night. Fresh to strong winds near Cabo Corrientes will persist for the next few hours before diminishing to fresh. Fresh winds will dominate the central and southern Gulf of California Sat through Sun night due to a locally tight pressure gradient. NW swell will continue to build across the waters of Baja California today, then become reinforced tonight through the end of the week, decaying during the upcoming weekend. Looking ahead, long range model guidance indicates the potential for at least a strong gale-force northerly gap wind event in the Gulf of Tehuantepec late in the upcoming weekend into early next week, although uncertainty exists being so far out in time. Please stay tuned as we get closer to this next potential event. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to locally strong NE to E offshore winds prevail across the Papagayo region, along with 4 to 7 ft seas. Moderate to locally fresh northerly winds are occurring across the Gulf of Panama and veer NE and pass south of the Azuero Peninsula. Winds are light to gentle elsewhere. Seas are mainly 2 to 4 ft elsewhere, locally to 5 ft. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds and moderate seas will pulse across the Papagayo region as high pressure builds across Central America from the north, continuing through early Thu, then become moderate to fresh thereafter. Fresh to strong winds may return there late in the weekend into early next week. Moderate N to NE winds will pulse to locally fresh from the Gulf of Panama to south of the Azuero Peninsula through today. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas will change little through the next several days. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for more details on significant NW swell forecast for the northern waters, and for another possible event late in the upcoming weekend and into early next week. A cold front is analyzed N of the area from near the Channel Islands of California ] area offshore. Fresh to strong associated winds are pushing ahead of the front along with very rough swells enclosing on 30N. A ridge extends across the waters from near 30N139W to offshore SW Mexico. Deep layered troughing has developed near 140W and the W-central waters with scattered moderate and isolated strong convection from 10N to 25N between 130W and 140W. Associated fresh to near gale-force winds cover the waters roughly from 10N to 24N between 125W and 140W. Winds are mainly moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters. For seas, rough seas cover the waters from 08N to 30N between 114W and 140W. Very rough seas are from 11N to 24N between 136W and 140W near the troughing. For the forecast, high pressure will build across the waters N of the ITCZ while the deep layered troughing persists in the W-central waters near 140W. This scenario will support a broad area of fresh to near gale-force trades N of the ITCZ to near 24N and W of 130W through early Fri, along with rough to very rough seas. Expect active showers and thunderstorms to accompany these increasing trades. Marine conditions should improve by the end of the week and into the weekend as the disturbance dissipates and the pressure gradient weakens. New, large and significant swells may move into the NW waters by the end of the weekend and into early next week.