Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Fri Oct 30 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The ITCZ is analyzed from 07N89W to 05N119W. A trough extends from 05N125W to a 1011 mb low pres near 08N137W. Scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ. Scattered moderate convection is noted S of 11N and W of 120W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... The remnants of Vance are producing fresh to strong winds and seas to 8 ft just north of Cabo Corrientes. Fresh to strong N to NE gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of Tehuantepec with seas 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with 5-7 ft over the Pacific waters, 2-4 ft over the N and central Gulf of California. For the forecast, the strong winds generated by the remnants of Vance will dissipate this morning. Fresh to strong N gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec will continue through early next week and diminish by Mon night. A developing extratropical cyclone should move into the waters west of the Baja California peninsula and over the N Gulf of California Sat night into Sun with fresh to strong SE to SW winds. Fresh NW winds should occur over the Gulf of California on Mon and Tue in the wake of the extratropical cyclone. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh NE to E gap winds are occurring over the Gulf of Papagayo region. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker. Seas are 4-6 ft. Scattered moderate convection is also occurring from 00N-07N east of 83W. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E gap winds over the Gulf of Papagayo region should continue through Mon. Fresh N winds over the Gulf of Panama should continue today before weakening on Sat. Large, long-period SW swell will reach the equatorial waters today before diminishing on Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1010 mb low is centered near 28N137W with a trough extending southwestward to 25N137W. Winds north of the low are E fresh with seas to 8 ft. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between weak ridging north of our waters and lower pressure over the monsoon trough is forcing only moderate or weaker trades across the forecast waters. Large, long-period SW swell is reaching northward across the equator to 04N between 108W-129W. Elsewhere seas are 4-7 ft. For the forecast, the low will become an extratropical cyclone this morning and then move slowly eastward. By tonight, fresh to strong S to SW winds will develop south of a warm front and fresh to strong N to NE winds should occur north of a cold front. The system should move over the offshore zones west of the Baja California peninsula on Sun with winds and seas diminishing by Sun night.