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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jul 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0700 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Elida is centered near 14.9N 111.8W at 15/0900 UTC, moving west at 13 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1003 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. Peak seas are currently around 14 to 15 ft or 4.5 m. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm in the east semicircle and 240 nm in the west semicircle of Elida. Elida is moving toward the west, and this general motion is expected to continue over the next day or so. A turn toward the northwest at a slower speed is expected by Thu night. Steady strengthening is expected over the next few days, and Elida is forecast to become a hurricane by Thu night and reach its peak intensity on Fri. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Elida NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 91.5W, north of 03N to across portions of Guatemala and far SE Mexico in the Yucatan Peninsula, moving slowly westward at 5 kt. Any nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section. A tropical wave is along 138W from 02N to 20N, moving westward at around 10 kt. A 1010 mb low pressure area is noted along the wave at 13N. Any nearby convection is described in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N74W to 10N85W to 08N87W. The ITCZ extends from 08N87W to 06N91W, then resumes west of a tropical wave from 06N94W to 13N108W, then resumes SW of recently upgraded Tropical Storm Elida from 12N114W to 07N123W to 12N135W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 07N between 77W and 80W, from 12N to 15N between 89W and 94W, within 390 nm south of the ITCZ between 106W and 135W, and within 210 nm north of the ITCZ between 119W and 131W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03N to 08N between 90W and 94W, within 270 nm north of the ITCZ between 93W and 107W, and from 05N to 13N between 135W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Elida, centered 491 nautical miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Fresh to strong winds extend across portions of the waters south of 20N and west 107W to the north and east of Elida early this morning, and impacting the offshore waters of the Revillagigedo Islands to near Cabo Corrientes. Seas across this area are 6 to 13 ft. Elsewhere to the east, fresh to strong gap winds are across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, where seas are 6 to 8 ft. A broad ridge prevails elsewhere offshore of Baja Baja California and to the NW of Elida. This pattern is supporting gentle to moderate NW to N winds and 4 to 5 ft seas across the Baja waters, and light breezes with 1 to 3 ft seas inside the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Elida will move to 15.0N 113.8W this afternoon, 15.1N 116.1W Thu morning, 15.5N 118.1W Thu afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 16.2N 119.8W Fri morning, 17.1N 121.3W Fri afternoon, and 18.2N 122.7W Sat morning. Elida will change little in intensity as it moves to 20.9N 125.4W early Sun. Otherwise, a broad ridge will continue to dominate the offshore forecast waters of Baja California through Thu, allowing for gentle to moderate NW to N winds to continue along with moderate seas in mixed swell. In the Gulf of California, winds are increasing to moderate to locally fresh in the central and northern portions later today. Fresh to strong northerly winds will pulse in the Gulf of Tehuantepec during the remainder of the week and into the upcoming weekend, strongest during the late night and early morning hours, with locally rough seas at times. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form later this week several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward well offshore of Mexico. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE to E winds continue across the Papagayo region to near 92W per recent OSCAT scatterometer data, with moderate to fresh easterly winds elsewhere north of 09N to offshore northern Nicaragua. Seas are 5 to 8 ft downstream of Papagayo. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters, locally fresh in the Gulf of Panama and near the Azuero Peninsula. Moderate seas dominate the waters. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds will prevail across the Papagayo region, peaking at night through at least Sun night, producing moderate to locally rough seas. Moderate to fresh northerly winds are expected across the Gulf of Panama this morning and again tonight into early Thu. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell will prevail elsewhere, except in the lee of the Galapagos Islands where slight seas are expected. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on recently upgraded Tropical Storm Elida, centered 491 nautical miles south-southwest of the southern tip of Baja California. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds are near a tropical wave along 138W, with a weak 1010 mb low analyzed along the tropical wave at 13N, within about 420 nm in the NW semicircle of the low. Seas are 6 to 8 ft in this area. Similar winds are found elsewhere from 15N to 25N between 116W and 130W. Moderate to locally fresh southerly winds and 5 to 8 ft seas are found south of the ITCZ and Elida between 107W and 127W. Winds are moderate or weaker across the remainder of the waters, except moderate to fresh north of the ITCZ to 13N to the east of 102W with 6 to 7 ft seas. Seas are 4 to 6 ft in a mix of swells elsewhere. For the forecast, Tropical Storm Elida will move to 15.0N 113.8W this afternoon, 15.1N 116.1W Thu morning, 15.5N 118.1W Thu afternoon, strengthen to a hurricane near 16.2N 119.8W Fri morning, 17.1N 121.3W Fri afternoon, and 18.2N 122.7W Sat morning. Elida will change little in intensity as it moves to 20.9N 125.4W early Sun. Winds and seas associated with the weak low along the tropical wave near 138W will persist through this afternoon as the wave shifts west of 140W by Thu. NE winds will freshen with seas 5 to 7 ft thereafter north of 15N and west of 125W between broad low pressure along the monsoon trough ridging farther north. Looking ahead, an area of low pressure is expected to form later this week several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form by the end of the weekend while it moves generally west-northwestward well offshore of Mexico.