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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jul 22 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Fausto is centered near 16.7N 120.7W at 0900 UTC, moving west-northwest at 7 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 981 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 75 kt with gusts to 90 kt. Peak seas are near 29 ft. Numerous strong convection is occurring from 15.5N to 17N between 119W and 121W. Scattered to numerous moderate isolated strong convection is noted elsewhere from 10.5N to 19.5N between 115W and 124W. Fausto is moving toward the west-northwest and a general west- northwestward to westward motion is expected for the next several days. Some additional strengthening is expected during the next 36 hours before atmospheric and oceanic conditions begin to become less favorable. Swells generated by Fausto are beginning to reach the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula and SW Mexico tonight, and will persist across these waters for a couple of days. These swells will likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website - https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Fausto NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is relocated along 90W N of 05N extending into Central America, is moving westward near 10 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11.5N between 86W and 93W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09.5N74W to 08N78W to 08N84W to 06N100W to 07N107W, where it breaks for Hurricane Fausto, then resumes near 12.5N127W to beyond 09N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave and Fausto, scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 03.5N to 09.5N E of 101W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04.5N to 08N between 101W and 116W, and from 05N to 13.5N between 126W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Fausto, centered about 715 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California. Fausto is exiting to the W of the Revillagigedo Islands, leaving gentle to moderate NE to E winds across those area waters. However seas remain 7 to 10 ft in SW swell there. To the north of Fausto, a weak ridge extends eastward then southeastward into the Baja waters and between Fausto and Cabo Corrientes. This ridge is supporting light to gentle NW winds across the offshore waters from Baja Norte to offshore Cabo Corrientes, and moderate to locally fresh winds near the coast. Seas are 4 to 7 ft in S swell N of Punta Eugenia and 6 to 9 ft S of to Cabo Corrientes. Gentle to locally moderate winds are found inside the Gulf of California, where seas are estimated at 1 to 3 ft except 4 to 5 ft in new SW swell from Fausto across the entrance. Gentle to moderate NW to W winds and moderate seas prevail across the remainder of the Mexican offshore waters, except for fresh to locally strong N gap winds in a narrow plume spilling out of Tehuantepec. Scattered thunderstorm have strengthened in recent hours along the coast from Guerrero to Jalisco. For the forecast, as Hurricane Fausto moves westward and away from the region, high pressure will begin to build across the Baja California offshore waters tonight through Thu to produce moderate to fresh NW winds with isolated areas of strong winds near the coasts during the afternoon and evening hours. Swells generated by Fausto have begun to reach the west coast of the Baja California Peninsula and SW Mexico tonight, and persist through Thu before fading. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. In the Gulf of California, mainly gentle to moderate southerly winds are expected. Fresh northerly winds are forecast in the Tehuantepec region during the overnight and early morning hours through the week, with locally rough seas. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it moves westward to west-northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the eastern Pacific. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. Strong cross-equatorial swell will begin to move into the area waters Fri and slowly build through the weekend, peaking Mon night through Tue. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Recent satellite scatterometer wind data showed fresh to strong E winds continuing across the Papagayo region and downwind to about to 90W, and extending northward to NW Nicaragua. Seas are 6 to 8 ft with these winds. This is occurring behind a tropical wave along 90W. Scattered to numerous thunderstorms have become very active in recent hours south of these winds to 03N, from Costa Rica to well beyond 90W, and being fueled by moderate to locally fresh S winds occurring outside of the offshore waters. Elsewhere, winds are moderate or weaker with seas 4 to 5 ft in S to SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds and moderate to rough seas will persist across the Papagayo region through Thu evening, then diminish slightly through the weekend. Gentle to moderate N winds are expected in the Gulf of Panama with slight to moderate seas. Moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas in SW swell are expected elsewhere. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well downwind of Papagayo and south of Tehuantepec over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form this weekend while it moves westward to west- northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the eastern Pacific, and beyond the local offshore waters. Strong cross-equatorial swell will begin to move into the area waters early Fri and slowly build through the weekend, peaking Mon through Tue. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please refer to the Special Features section for details on Hurricane Fausto, centered about 715 nm WSW of the southern tip of Baja California. Hurricane Fausto dominates conditions over the High Seas forecast waters from 10N to 24N between 115W and 125W. Fresh to strong winds outside of the immediate circulation of Fausto extend to 22N, and seas to 8 ft reaching as far N of Fausto as 26N. Elsewhere, high pressure extends a broad ridge weakly into the northern waters W of 120W and W of Fausto to 10N. Moderate or weaker winds with moderate seas prevail. Mixed SE and SW swell is moving into the equatorial waters W of 125W, raising seas to near 8 ft. For the forecast, Hurricane Fausto will continue to move west- northwest to westward through the rest of the week, reaching near 17.0N 121.9W midday today, 17.4N 123.9W midnight Wed, 17.7N 126.4W midday Thu, 18.0N 129.1W midnight Thu, 18.3N 132.0W midday Fri, and 18.7N 134.7W midnight Fri. SE to S swell propagating away from Fausto will spread across the regional waters W of 120W Wed through Sat. Looking ahead, a broad area of low pressure is forecast to develop well south of Mexico over the next couple of days. Environmental conditions appear conducive for development of the system thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form while it moves westward to west- northwestward across the eastern and central portions of the eastern Pacific. The latest Tropical Weather Outlook gives this system a high chance of tropical cyclone formation through 7 days. As is typical during EL Nino years, the eastern Pacific remains active, with one tropical system potentially developing after another. Strong cross-equatorial swell will begin to move into the area waters Wed night and slowly build Thu night through the weekend.