Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Sun May 31 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends along 107W, from 02N to 14N, moving westward at around 5 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 04N to 14N between 98W and 114W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 09N82W to 11N105W to a 1009 mb low pres near 08N123W to another 1009 mb low pres near 08N133W to 06N140W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate convection associated also with low pressures are from 02N to 11N between 114W and 125W and from 01N to 13N between 127W and 140W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A broad surface ridge extends into the region to just NW of the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a surface trough along the Gulf of California is producing moderate to locally NW to N winds across the Baja California offshore waters. NW swell continues to produce seas to 8 ft over the waters N of Cabo San Lazaro while merging SW and NW swell is supporting 7 to 9 ft seas across the offshore waters from Cabo San Lazaro to Cabo San Lucas. Inside the Gulf of California winds are gentle NW with seas slight seas, except 3 to 6 ft across the entrance of the Gulf. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere along with 6 to 8 ft seas in SW swell, including the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, high pressure will remain centered N of the region through the week, maintaining moderate to locally fresh NW winds across Baja California offshore waters. Rough seas for these waters will subside Mon as NW swell decays. Elsewhere, mainly tranquil marine conditions will prevail. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly light and variable winds prevail across the Central American offshore waters along with moderate seas to 7 ft in SW swell. South of the monsoon trough, and between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador winds are gentle from the SSE and seas are 6 to 8 ft in long period SW swell. For the forecast, a weak pressure pattern will result in light to gentle winds through the period, except for nocturnal pulses of moderate to fresh gap winds across the Papagayo region. Moderate seas in SW swell will prevail. Gentle to moderate S to SE winds between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador will continue through the forecast period. Long period SW swell is forecast to enter the southern Galapagos adjacent waters Tue night and subside Thu night. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure dominates waters N of the monsoon trough, with the pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough supporting moderate to fresh NE to E winds. Seas over these waters are in the 7 to 10 ft range in a mix of trade wind waves and NW to N swell. Gentle to moderate winds are S of the monsoon trough. Seas across the waters S of the monsoon trough are generally 7 to 10 ft in S to SW swell. For the forecast, broad low pressure of 1009 mb, depicted in the monsoon trough section above, is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form during the middle part of the week while moving westward or west-northwestward at around 10 kt across the western portions of the East Pacific. Otherwise, the high pressure will drift N, causing winds to weaken early this week. However, a continuation of a mixture of southerly and northwesterly long-period swell and tradewind waves will lead to occasional rough seas through the period.