Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Feb 8 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: The pressure gradient between high pressure across the eastern slopes of Mexico and lower pressure associated with the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough is supporting gale-force northerly winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec along with peak seas to around 11 ft. These conditions are forecast to lower below gale-force Sun afternoon, then pulse back up to gale-force late Sun night before diminishing to fresh to strong speeds afterward into early on Tue. Seas in the Gulf region are forecast to diminish to 5 to 7 ft early on Tue. Gulf of Papagayo Gale Warning: Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will pulse in the Papagayo region through the weekend and into early next week. Winds are expected to reach minimal gale- force late at night through Mon due to a tightened pressure gradient between strong high pressure to the north and the eastern north Pacific monsoon trough. Rough seas will accompany these winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N83W to 05N87W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 04N140W. Another surface trough is analyzed along 112W from 05N to 18N. Scattered moderate convection is noted along the second trough and ITCZ between 105W-119W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the Special Features section above for details. Aside from the Gale Warning area, gentle to moderate northwest winds are west of Baja California, while light to gentle northerly winds prevail elsewhere. Light and weaker winds are in the Gulf of California north of 29N, and gentle northwest winds are south of 29N. Seas of 5 to 7 ft are over the Mexican waters, except for higher seas of 8 to 10 ft in long-period west to northwest swell north of 17N and west of 110W. Slight seas prevail across the Gulf of California. For the forecast aside from the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gale event, the long-period northwest swell will reach to near 108W today, then decay. Another set of northwest swell may reach the outer boundary of the offshore waters from 30N to Punta Eugenia on Tue, before it begins to decay. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Gulf of Papagayo. Please see the Special Features section above for details. Aside from the Gulf of Papagayo, fresh northeast winds and rough seas are over the far offshore waters of Guatemala associated with the Gulf of Tehuantepec gale force gap wind event. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas prevail. For the forecast aside from the Gulf of Papagayo, moderate to fresh northerly gap winds in the Gulf of Panama will continue through tonight before diminishing moderate to fresh speeds on Tue. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1029 mb high center is analyzed north of the area at 32N128W, a ridge axis extending southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. Latest scatterometer satellite data depicts light to gentle anticyclone winds north of 22N W of 125W. The pressure gradient between the high pressure and lower pressures to the south with the ITCZ is resulting in fresh to strong trades from 11N to 14N west of 130W, and fresh trades elsewhere from 06N to 20N west of 115W. Seas over these waters are 8 to 10 ft in long- period northwest swell. Fresh east winds generated from the ongoing Gulf of Tehuantepec gap wind gale event are spreading westward to near 110W as seen in recent scatterometer satellite data passes over those waters. For the forecast, the seas to 10 ft in the long-period northwest swell will gradually subside through Mon, however, another set of long-period northwest swell will be impacting the waters west of about 130W at that time. Otherwise, high pressure will build over the waters north of 20N through the rest of the weekend and into early next week. The pressure gradient will tighten between the high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ leading to an expansion of the fresh to strong trades from 06N to 20N and west of about 120W late tonight into Mon. These winds are forecast to diminish some late on Mon and into Tue as a cold front moves into the NW part of the area. Fresh to strong winds are expected behind this front along with seas building to 8 to 11 ft in northwest swell.