Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Mon Jun 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0920 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 91W extending from Guatemala southward to 01N, moving westward at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 08N between 88W and 99W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 11N107W to 12N124W and beyond 05N140W. A 1007 mb low is embedded within the monsoon trough near 08N132W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 03N to 12N between 126W and 140W. In addition to the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate isolated strong is also ongoing from 05N to 14N between 108W and 120W. Otherwise, numerous strong convection is coming off Colombia and moving across the offshore waters of Panama. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends across the northern Gulf of California into the Baja California Sur. The pressure gradient between the trough and surface ridging to the west is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds across the Baja Peninsula offshores, and locally fresh SW to NW winds near Cabo San Lucas. In the Gulf of California, winds are gentle to moderate from the SSW and seas remain slight. A weak pressure gradient across the remainder discussion waters is supporting light to gentle winds with moderate seas to 6 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the waters of Baja California, pulsing to locally fresh speeds at night. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds are expected inside the Gulf of California and near the tip of Baja California Sur, reaching locally fresh winds midweek. Light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Tehunatepec. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate NE to E winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo along with moderate seas to 5 ft. Gentle to moderate SE to S winds are found between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador with moderate seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds are found elsewhere with slight to moderate seas. For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail across the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Fri night. Moderate winds will pulse to fresh in diurnal offshore flow in the immediate Gulf of Papagayo through tonight. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in SW swell are forecast elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1007 mb low is centered near 08N132W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted in the environment of the low from 03N to 12N between 126W and 140W. In addition moderate to fresh winds are within 240 nm of the low center, likely reaching strong speeds in the areas of strongest convection and thunderstorm activity. Rough seas to 9 ft are also within that distance from the low center. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, the broad area of low pressure located well southwest of the Baja California Peninsula could support some gradual development during the next day or two while the system moves northward and then northwestward at 5 to 10 kt. Thereafter, increasing dry mid-level air is expected to limit further development. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds, and moderate seas will prevail.