Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Jun 15 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 92.5W extending from the border of Guatemala with Mexico southward to 01N just NW of the Galapagos Islands, moving westward at around 15 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 03N to 09N between 91W and 96W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the SW Caribbean Sea to across the border of Nicaragua with Costa Rica to the Gulf of Papagayo near 11N86W to 06N96W to 12N108W to low pressure near 10N125W 1011 mb to low pressure, Invest EP93, near 08.5N132W 1007 mb to beyond 06N140W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 77W and 85W, from 09.5N to 12N between 97W and 100W, from 04N to 13N between 102W and 120W, from 07N to 12N between 121W and 125W, from 01N to 06.5N between 129W and 139.5W, and from 06.5N to 13N between 130W and 135W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A surface trough extends from SW Arizona to along the coast of Baja California in the Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between the trough and surface ridging to the west is supporting gentle to moderate NW winds across the Baja Peninsula offshores, and locally fresh SW to NW winds near Cabo San Lucas. In the Gulf of California, winds are gentle to moderate from the SSW and seas remain slight. A weak pressure gradient across the remainder discussion waters is supporting light to gentle winds with moderate seas to 6 ft in SW swell. For the forecast, gentle to moderate winds will prevail across the waters of Baja California, pulsing to locally fresh speeds at night. Gentle to occasionally moderate winds are expected inside the Gulf of California and near the tip of Baja California Sur, reaching locally fresh speeds midweek. Light to gentle winds will prevail over the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Tehunatepec. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds are ongoing in the Gulf of Papagayo along with moderate seas to 6 ft. Moderate to locally fresh SE to S winds are found between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador with moderate seas to 6 ft. Light to gentle winds are found elsewhere with slight to moderate seas. A large area of deep convection extends from the SW Caribbean Sea to across Panama and western Colombia, as well as near the coast of Costa Rica as described with the monsoon trough above. Winds and seas may be higher in and near any convection. For the forecast, gentle to moderate S to SE winds and moderate seas will prevail across the offshore waters between Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through Fri night. Moderate winds will pulse to fresh in diurnal offshore flow in the immediate Gulf of Papagayo through tonight, then again possibly Fri night. Light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas in SW swell are forecast elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1007 mb low, Invest EP93, is centered well southwest of the Baja California Peninsula near 08.5N132W with nearby convection described above with the monsoon trough. Moderate to fresh winds are within 240 nm of the low center, likely reaching strong speeds in the areas of strongest convection and thunderstorm activity. Rough seas to 9 ft are also within that distance from the low center. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail, locally rough near the monsoon trough W of 110W. For the forecast, environmental conditions around the broad area of low pressure, Invest EP93, could support some gradual development during the next day or so while the system moves northward and then northwestward at 5 to 10 kt. Thereafter, increasing dry mid- level air is expected to limit further development. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds, and moderate seas will prevail, except seas building to rough south of and near the Equator and east of 120W in new southerly swells midweek, lingering into the end of the week. Looking ahead, yet another set of southerly swell may build seas to rough over the same area during the upcoming weekend.