Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Wed Mar 4 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0200 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough is noted from 01S81W to 03S87W to 03S103W to 00S113W. The ITCZ extends from 04N120W to beyond 01N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 02N to 03S between 91W and 103W, and from 02N to 04N between 127W and 139W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong winds prevail over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, along with 5 to 7 ft seas. High pressure building SE toward Baja California along a surface trough over NW Mexico are causing fresh to locally NW winds offshore Baja California Norte near Punta Eugenia. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is leading to mainly gentle winds. Moderate seas prevail elsewhere over the open waters off Mexico, with slight seas over the Gulf of California. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure over NE Mexico and the equatorial trough will support strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehunatepec into early Wed, and moderate to fresh Wed night and Sat night. Winds may increase back to fresh to strong Sun night. High pressure will build further over the waters N of Punta Eugenia Wed, tightening the pressure gradient and supporting fresh to strong NW winds and building seas off Baja California. Rough to very rough seas will then persist there into the weekend. Looking ahead, a cut-off low pressure area may develop and linger near Baja California Norte by the end of the weekend into early next week which would weaken the pressure gradient and slightly improve marine conditions. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong gap winds are in the Papagayo region, with fresh gap winds ongoing in the Gulf of Panama, extending southward to 03N. Seas in these areas are 5 to 8 ft. Elsewhere, winds are light to gentle with slight to moderate seas. Scattered moderate convection is noted SW of the Galapagos Islands and near the coasts of Ecuador and Colombia. For the forecast, pulsing fresh to strong winds are expected in the Papagayo area into the weekend. Winds will increase to 30 kt tonight, with seas building to 8 to 9 ft downwind of the Papagayo region to near 90W. Fresh N gap winds and moderate seas will likely pulse to locally strong tonight in the Gulf of Panama and just S of the Azuero Peninsula. Looking ahead, significant southerly swell with rough seas may approach the waters offshore Ecuador to the Galapagos Islands early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered just N of the region is dominating much of the waters N of 04N. This is leading to mainly moderate or weaker NE to E winds N of the Equator, along with moderate seas. For the forecast, high pressure will build southward over the area into late week, tightening the pressure gradient and increasing winds. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and rough seas are expected over NW waters N of 05N and W of 115W starting late Wed and continuing into the weekend. Looking ahead, a cut- off low pressure area may develop and linger near Baja California Norte by the end of the weekend into early next week which would weaken the pressure gradient and slightly improve marine conditions.