Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Fri Jul 10 2026 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1430 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 83/84W, from the NW Caribbean southward, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 96W, from southern Mexico southward, moving westward at around 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 121W from 18N southward, moving westward at 10-15 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 07N97W to 11N112W to 07N131W. The ITCZ continues from 07N131W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 84W and 88W. Scattered to numerous moderate and scattered strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N between 88W and 101W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 04N to 11N between 111W and 130W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... High pressure prevails west of the Baja California peninsula, with a surface trough over the Gulf of California. The pressure gradient between these features is supporting fresh to strong winds over the Gulf of California. A tropical wave passing south of southern Mexico is helping to induce fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Moderate winds are noted off Cabo Corrientes. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are moderate or less across the discussion waters, reaching locally rough in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. For the forecast, moderate or weaker winds will prevail across the Baja California offshores through Tue night along with slight to moderate seas in mixed swell. Fresh to strong SE winds across the Gulf of California will diminish to gentle to moderate speeds by late Sat. Pulses of fresh to strong northerly gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec will reach near gale-force speed Mon night, which will continue to affect the region through at least midweek. Otherwise, an area of low pressure is expected to form late this weekend or early next week several hundred miles south- southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form next week while the system moves generally west- northwestward. Regardless of tropical cyclone formation, the lowering pressure may induce at least fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas across the offshore waters of SW Mexico Sun night through Tue night. ....OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A tropical wave is crossing Central America in the the Pacific waters, inducing fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo. Gentle to moderate winds are between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Light to gentle winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are moderate or less, except rough in the Gulf of Papagayo. For the forecast, fresh to strong gap winds in Papagayo will prevail through at least Tue night with moderate to rough seas. Otherwise, fresh to strong winds and rough to very rough seas may impact the waters offshore El Salvador and Guatemala Sat evening through late Sun. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure prevails across the waters N of 18N. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ and monsoon trough and W of 120W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the ITCZ and monsoon trough. Seas across the discussion waters are moderate or less. For the forecast, swell of 8-9 ft north of 25N and east of 125W will subside today. Otherwise, an area of low pressure is expected to form late this weekend or early next week several hundred miles south-southwest of the coast of southwestern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development thereafter, and a tropical depression is likely to form next week while the system moves generally west- northwestward. Regardless of development, this system will bring strong winds and rough seas to the SW Mexican offshore immediate open waters Sun through midweek.