Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 25

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Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 25 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Fri Sep 05 2025 Kiko has held steady this evening with only minor fluctuations in intensity, maintaining its Category 4 strength on the Saffir-Simpson Hurricane Wind Scale. The eye remains well-defined and is mostly surrounded by a sufficiently large light gray shade on the Dvorak BD curve, with occasional hints of an even stronger pattern when a nearly sufficiently large black shade surrounds the eye. The latest subjective Dvorak current intensities varied, with TAFB at 6.5/127 kt, and SAB and HFO both at 6.0/115 kt. Objective estimates from UW-CIMSS ranged between 115 and 122 kt. Blending the subjective and objective data supports holding the initial intensity at 120 kt for this advisory. Kiko continues to move west-northwestward, or 285 degrees at 9 kt, and will enter the Central Pacific basin within a few hours. The cyclone remains steered by the southwestern flank of a subtropical ridge, while an upper-level low north of Hawaii continues to gradually erode the ridge’s western periphery. This general motion is expected to persist through the weekend. By early to mid next week (days 3 to 5), it is expected to turn slightly more westward under increasing influence from the low-level steering flow, keeping the center north of the main Hawaiian Islands. The latest forecast track lies slightly to the right of the previous NHC forecast and represents a blend between that solution and the consensus aids. Kiko is expected to maintain its major hurricane intensity through Saturday while traversing waters near 26 C and under minimal shear. Its annular structure should allow the system to resist weakening longer than typically observed, even as it begins to move over cooler waters. By late this weekend, Kiko will encounter progressively cooler waters and steadily increasing west-southwesterly shear, which should induce weakening at a more rapid rate as it begins to approach the Hawaiian Islands. The official intensity forecast holds Kiko above much of the guidance through the first half of the weekend, before trending closer to the consensus aids late in the weekend and early next week. Future information on Kiko can be found under Central Pacific basin headers beginning at 500 AM HST. Future Tropical Cyclone Discussions will be issued under AWIPS header HFOTCDCP4 and WMO header WTPA44 PHFO. Products will continue to be available on the web at hurricanes.gov. Key Messages: 1. Kiko is forecast to approach the Hawaiian Islands during the early to the middle portion of next week. Impacts from rain and wind remain a possibility, but it is too soon to determine the exact location or magnitude of these impacts, and interests there should continue to monitor the progress of this storm. 2. Swells generated by Kiko are expected to begin reaching the Big Island and Maui by Sunday. These swells will gradually build and are forecast to peak along east facing exposures of the Hawaiian Islands late Monday through midweek, potentially producing life-threatening surf and rip currents. Listen for later advisories and possible warnings from the National Weather Service. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 06/0900Z 15.1N 139.7W 120 KT 140 MPH 12H 06/1800Z 15.7N 141.0W 120 KT 140 MPH 24H 07/0600Z 16.5N 142.9W 115 KT 130 MPH 36H 07/1800Z 17.4N 144.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 48H 08/0600Z 18.5N 146.9W 100 KT 115 MPH 60H 08/1800Z 19.6N 149.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 72H 09/0600Z 21.0N 151.2W 75 KT 85 MPH 96H 10/0600Z 23.1N 155.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 120H 11/0600Z 24.9N 160.9W 35 KT 40 MPH