Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 13

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Hurricane Kiko Discussion Number 13 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP112025 1100 PM HST Tue Sep 02 2025 The low-level center of Kiko remained embedded in a large central dense overcast through most of the past 12 hours, with only the most recent satellite images now showing a more well-defined eye developing surrounded by a ring of deep convection. The most recent subjective Dvorak current intensity estimates from TAFB and SAB were both 5.0/90 kt, while the objective estimates from UW-CIMSS have ranged between 83 and 92 kt during the past several hours. Based on these data and little overall change in the satellite presentation since the previous advisory cycle, the initial intensity has been held at 90 kt. Kiko is moving due west, or 270 degrees, at 6 kt. This general motion is expected to continue during the next couple of days, as the cyclone is steered by a building subtropical ridge to its north and northwest. A turn toward the west-northwest is forecast by day 3 as an upper-level trough north of Hawaii begins to erode the western portion of the subtropical ridge, with this general motion then continuing through day 5. There remains some along-track spread among the global models, particularly beyond 24 hours, with some cross track spread also noted toward the end of the forecast resulting from differences in the handling of the upper-level trough and subtropical ridge to the north of Kiko. The official track forecast remains in good agreement with a blend of the latest multi-model consensus aids and is nearly identical to the previous advisory. Kiko will remain over warm waters of 27–28C and influenced by most light vertical wind shear through day 3. The surrounding environmental mid-level moisture will remain drier than optimal, hovering between 50 and 60 percent through 60 hours, then trending below 50 percent by days 3 through 5. Despite the drier mid-level airmass, the light vertical wind shear and warm sea surface temperatures should maintain Kiko as a strong hurricane, with the cyclone forecast to become a major hurricane on Wednesday and remain at that status through day 3. By days 4 and 5, the cyclone will begin moving over cooler water with gradually increasing westerly vertical wind shear, and mid-level moisture plummeting below 40 percent. These factors should lead to a steady weakening, however, Kiko is still forecast to be a hurricane on day 5. The official forecast remains on the higher end of the intensity guidance suite, and is most closely aligned with a blend of the FSSE/HCCA intensity consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 03/0900Z 13.8N 130.1W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 03/1800Z 13.8N 131.2W 100 KT 115 MPH 24H 04/0600Z 13.9N 132.6W 105 KT 120 MPH 36H 04/1800Z 14.0N 134.2W 105 KT 120 MPH 48H 05/0600Z 14.2N 135.8W 105 KT 120 MPH 60H 05/1800Z 14.5N 137.4W 105 KT 120 MPH 72H 06/0600Z 15.0N 139.0W 100 KT 115 MPH 96H 07/0600Z 16.3N 142.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 120H 08/0600Z 17.5N 145.8W 75 KT 85 MPH