Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number 2

Full Alert Message

Tropical Storm Genevieve Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP072026 300 PM CST Fri Jul 24 2026 GOES-18 RGB composite imagery and a 1606 UTC METOP-B scatterometer overpass indicate that the cloud pattern has become better organized and the surface circulation is better defined. Deep convective coverage continues to expand, and a developing curved band wraps halfway around the center. The ASCAT data (which showed 35-38 kt believable surface vector winds) and the TAFB Dvorak satellite intensity estimate of T2.5 support 35-40 kt. However, Dvorak rules prevent a reasonable T3.0 (45 kt) classification. Based on these data, the depression has been upgraded to a 40-kt Tropical Storm Genevieve. The global model forecast soundings indicate modest west-northwesterly shear is undercutting the lighter diffluent flow above 250 mb, and appears to be impinging on the northeast quadrant of the convective mass. The SHIPS and the global model fields suggest, however, that the shear will diminish during the next 12 hours. The latest NOAA AOML ocean analysis indicates that Genevieve will be traversing a region of very high tropical cyclone ocean heat potential within the next 36 hrs or so. As a result, various rapid intensification techniques and the Google DeepMind (GDM) ensemble continue to predict a high probability that Genevieve will undergo a period of rapid intensification (RI) by mid-period. Accordingly, the official intensity forecast continues to reflect RI between 24 and 48 hours and Genevieve becoming a major hurricane early next week, using a blend of the HFIP HCCA corrected consensus and the GDM. Genevieve's initial motion is estimated to be west-northwestward, or 290/11 kt while being steered by mid-tropospheric high pressure anchored over northwestern Mexico. The bulk of the models remain in good agreement with a continued west-northwest heading through the period, and the NHC forecast follows suit, while lying closely to the HCCA consensus and the GDM ensemble mean. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 24/2100Z 9.2N 101.9W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 25/0600Z 9.9N 103.4W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 25/1800Z 11.2N 105.7W 55 KT 65 MPH 36H 26/0600Z 12.4N 108.1W 75 KT 85 MPH 48H 26/1800Z 13.5N 110.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 60H 27/0600Z 14.8N 112.3W 100 KT 115 MPH 72H 27/1800Z 16.1N 113.9W 110 KT 125 MPH 96H 28/1800Z 17.9N 116.7W 110 KT 125 MPH 120H 29/1800Z 19.4N 119.5W 95 KT 110 MPH