Tropical Storm Boris Discussion Number 8

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Tropical Storm Boris Discussion Number 8 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP022026 900 PM CST Mon Jun 08 2026 Boris is meandering off the southern coast of Mexico this evening after continuing on a northeasterly motion today, and is finally making a slow turn toward the north. The storm is being impacted by significant easterly wind shear, and the overall convective structure has waned, as exhibited by warming cloud tops and lack of organized banding features. However, objective and subjective Dvorak intensity estimates range from 35-43 kt, so the initial intensity is maintained at 40 kt. The center of Boris was repositioned at 00z to the northeast of the previously estimated track, based on geostationary and microwave satellite data. Little change in intensity is expected up until landfall. A gradual turn toward the northwest is expected overnight into Tuesday as a mid-level ridge builds over the western Gulf of America. Once inland, rapid weakening is forecast, and Boris is expected to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of Mexico by midweek. The official forecast track lies between the simple and corrected dynamical model consensus but leans toward the latter solution. The threat of very heavy rainfall continues to be the primary hazard of concern with this slow-moving system, which will likely result in flash flooding and mudslides in mountainous terrain. Key Messages: 1. Heavy rainfall associated with Tropical Storm Boris will impact portions of southern Mexico. This rainfall will likely produce life-threatening flooding and mudslides, especially in areas of steep terrain. 2. Tropical storm conditions are likely occurring along the coast within the Tropical Storm Warning area and will continue into early Tuesday. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 09/0300Z 16.0N 98.3W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 09/1200Z 16.6N 98.7W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND 24H 10/0000Z 17.5N 99.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/INLAND 36H 10/1200Z...DISSIPATED