Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 10

Full Alert Message

Tropical Storm Mario Discussion Number 10 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP132025 800 PM MST Sun Sep 14 2025 The overall organization of Mario has been relatively steady through the afternoon and evening. Wind observations from Socorro Island indicate that the center of the tropical storm is passing north of the island. Recent satellite imagery suggests easterly wind shear has been tilting Mario's vortex and displacing deep convection to the west of the low-level center. Subjective Dvorak estimates of 3.0/45 kt from TAFB, 2.5/35 kt from SAB, and observed winds on Socorro Islands support maintaining the initial intensity of Mario at 40 kt for this advisory. The data from Socorro Island, which was within 30 n mi of the center, emphasize Mario's small size, with reported sustained winds of 20 kt and gusts to 27 kt since the last advisory. The initial position proved difficult to analyze, however the data from Socorro Island have helped to pin down the location of the low-level center, which matches the previous forecast track. The cyclone is moving slightly faster to the west-northwest at 295/8 kt. This general motion should continue for the next few days as Mario is primarily steered by deep-layer ridging centered over Mexico. The track forecast is largely the same as the previous one through the next 36 hrs, then adjusted slightly east in line with the latest consensus aids. Mario is still forecast to slightly intensify over the next 24 hours, as it moves through an environment of warm sea surface temperatures, plentiful mid-level moisture, and low shear. The earlier bout of easterly shear may already be subsiding, as a new convective burst begins closer to the cyclone's low-level center. The intensity forecast is the same as the previous one, in agreement with the consensus aids. Beyond 24 hours, Mario will cross the 26C isotherm, southwesterly wind shear will increase, and mid-level moisture will diminish. This unfavorable environment should cause Mario to weaken, and the cyclone is forecast to become a remnant low by 60 hours, with dissipation by around 96 hours. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 15/0300Z 19.2N 111.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 12H 15/1200Z 19.9N 112.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 24H 16/0000Z 20.9N 114.9W 50 KT 60 MPH 36H 16/1200Z 22.1N 116.9W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 17/0000Z 23.5N 118.7W 35 KT 40 MPH 60H 17/1200Z 24.7N 120.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 18/0000Z 25.4N 121.4W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 19/0000Z...DISSIPATED