Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number 2

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Tropical Storm Hernan Discussion Number 2 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082026 200 AM PDT Thu Aug 13 2026 A recent ASCAT pass has shown that the winds have increased on the western side of the cyclone to around 35 kts. While the most recent TAFB Dvorak fix has a Final T 2.0 with a max winds of 30 kt. DPRINT has a wind maximum around 39 kt while the ADT and AiDT are close to 32 and 33 kt respectively. Based on the observations from the ASCAT, the initial NHC intensity has been set to 35 kt. The initial motion is estimated to be west, or 270 degrees at 3 kt. As a trough near the west coast of the U.S. pulls away and some weak ridging builds back in to the north, the cyclone should gradually turn toward the southwest as it feels a tug from lower pressures to the southwest of the system. The current NHC forecast track is adjusted slightly to the right of the previous track, but generally still in the middle of the spread in the models and close to HCCA. However, given that the track guidance still has a large spread, the track confidence is still a bit below average. The cyclone is experiencing moderate to strong westerly wind shear, mainly due to the aforementioned trough to the north and outflow from Potential Tropical Cyclone One-C. Therefore, at best only minor additional strengthening appears likely, and the most likely scenario is that the wind shear will prevent any additional strengthening. Models forecast the environment to remain unfavorable and that the storm may well degenerate to a remnant low within 48 h. Indeed, the GFS and ECMWF simulated satellite imagery indicate that it could a remnant low sooner than currently forecast. The remnants should gradually spin down and dissipate in a few days. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 13/0900Z 18.1N 131.9W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 13/1800Z 18.0N 132.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 14/0600Z 17.3N 132.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 36H 14/1800Z 16.5N 132.9W 30 KT 35 MPH 48H 15/0600Z 15.8N 133.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 15/1800Z 15.3N 135.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 16/0600Z 14.9N 136.8W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED