Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 5

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Tropical Storm Douglas Discussion Number 5 NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP042026 200 AM PDT Thu Jul 02 2026 Deep convection continues to burst north of the low-level center of Douglas, with a broken convective band displaced to the southeast this morning. Microwave imagery showed that the low-level center is located south of the ongoing convection. Satellite intensity estimates from UW-CIMSS range between 35 and 40 knots, with the latest subjective Dvorak estimate from TAFB remaining T2.5/35 kt. Unfortunately, scatterometer missed the system tonight, which would have helped with the current intensity and wind radii. Given the latest estimates, the intensity is held at 35 kt for this advisory. The storm continues to move generally northward around 6 kt. This motion should continue today as the storm moves around the western periphery of a mid-level ridge. On Friday, a turn to the northwest than west is forecast as the system weakens and is steered by the low-level flow. The latest NHC forecast is similar to the previous and lies between the Google DeepMind and HCCA corrected consensus aids. Douglas has only 6 to 12 hours before it encounters a less favorable environment with drier mid-level RH, increasing vertical wind shear, and cooler sea surface temperatures. Although not explicitly reflected in the official intensity forecast, a brief period of slight strengthening remains possible during the next several hours. However, by tonight a weakening trend should begin and Douglas is forecast to struggle to maintain deep convection in about 24–36 hours and should degenerate into a remnant low during that period. The NHC intensity forecast is similar to the previous and is in good agreement with the latest guidance. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 02/0900Z 17.0N 127.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 02/1800Z 17.8N 127.3W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 03/0600Z 19.0N 127.6W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 03/1800Z 20.2N 128.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 04/0600Z 21.2N 128.8W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 60H 04/1800Z 22.1N 129.7W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 05/0600Z 23.0N 130.6W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 06/0600Z...DISSIPATED