Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 703 PM EST Sun Jan 19 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2330 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...GULF OF MEXICO GALE WARNING... A cold front extends across the basin from 25N84W to 25N90W to 20N96W. Gale-force winds are expected from 22N-24N and west of 96W, with seas ranging between 9-12 ft. Similar conditions will continue across the western Gulf waters through the next 42 hours. See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...SOUTH-CENTRAL CARIBBEAN GALE WARNING... Gale-force winds will pulse near the coast of Colombia tonight, then diminishing below gale force on Monday. Seas will range from 10 to 14 ft in this area. See the latest NWS Highs Seas Forecast under AWIPS/WMO headers MIAHSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC or at website https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for further details. ...WESTERN ATLANTIC AND NORTHEAST CARIBBEAN LARGE SWELL... Large northerly swell will combine with strong winds to produce significant wave heights between 12-16 ft over a large area of the Atlantic from 16N-31N between 35W-68W. Large surf, dangerous rip currents and possible coastal flooding will affect the Atlantic-facing shores of the Dominican Republic, Puerto Rico, Virgin Islands, Leeward Islands, and the northeast Caribbean passages through early Monday. The swells will gradually subside by late Mon and early Tue. See information from your local or national meteorological service for more specific information on beach hazards in your area. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Liberia near 05N09W to 02N13W. The ITCZ continues from 02N13W to 02S43W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 100 nm on either side of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... A Gale Warning is in effect for the southwest Gulf of Mexico. See the section above for details. A cold front extends across the basin from 25N84W to 25N90W to 20N96W. Scattered showers are noted along the front. Scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong northerly winds north of the front, while moderate to fresh southerly winds prevail south of the front. The cold front will move quickly SE through the remainder of the basin through Mon. Strong north winds will prevail north of the front, and gale winds will develop offshore areas south of Tampico and Veracruz and continue through Mon night. Winds and seas will diminish on Tue as high pressure builds into the Gulf. The high will move east Wed, allowing strong S winds to develop in the northern Gulf by mid week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Gale-force winds are pulsing over the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Also, large northerly swell currently affecting the NE Caribbean passages will continue through early Monday. See the section above for details. A stationary front extends across the far northeast portion of the basin from 18N63W to 19N69W north of Hispaniola. Scattered showers are noted across the Leeward Islands, Puerto Rico, and Hispaniola. Latest scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong easterly winds over the south central Caribbean, while moderate to fresh winds prevail elsewhere. Low-topped scattered showers are noted across the far west Caribbean waters, mainly west of 80W. Winds will pulse to gale force along the coast of Colombia tonight. Thereafter, the pressure gradient responsible for the high winds will slacken, allowing winds to diminish to strong levels into mid-week. Elsewhere, high pressure building southwestward toward the Caribbean will result in strong northeast to east winds over much of the central and eastern Caribbean through tonight, before the high moves to the east and weakens, diminishing winds across most of the area. Long-period N swell is creating very large seas and hazardous marine conditions across the Tropical North Atlantic forecast zones. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on the swell event over the western Atlantic. A cold front extends from 31N34W to 22N40W to 18N53W, then stalls from that point to 18N63W. Scattered showers are in the vicinity of the front. A 1026 mb high is centered near Bermuda and extending over the west Atlantic in the wake of the front. In the far eastern Atlantic, an upper-level trough is inducing scattered showers north of 25N and east of 25W. Strong NE winds cover much of Atlantic to the NE of Puerto Rico and the Leeward Islands as well as the Caribbean passages. Large seas across the Atlantic waters will gradually subside from W to E through Mon. A strong cold front will move off the SE U.S. early tonight. The front will reach from near Bermuda to central Cuba by Mon evening, then become stationary from east of Bermuda to the Windward Passage on Tue and gradually weaken through Thu. A tight pressure gradient in the wake of this cold front and associated low pressure expected to develop Tue and Tue night will bring strong to near gale-force northerly winds over most of the western waters north N of about 26N Tue through Thu, with gale-force winds possible over some of those waters. Conditions will diminish over the area Thu night through Fri night.