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Tropical Weather Discussion

Status

Issued Active alert

Start Time

Sun 04/21/2024 08:05 PM EDT

End Time

Mon 04/22/2024 02:05 AM EDT

Impacts

Informational

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0005 UTC Mon Apr 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Mexico gale warning: A cold front is moving across the Gulf of Mexico. Winds will briefly increase to gale force off the coast of Tampico, Mexico tonight, with seas building to near 9 ft during the period of gale force winds. Winds will diminish below gale force Mon morning. Western Atlantic gale warning: The same cold front in the Gulf of Mexico will move off the east coast of Florida tonight. Fresh to strong winds will follow the front. Winds will increase to gale force on Mon afternoon over the waters N of 30N W of the front. The gale force winds will lift N of the area late Mon night. Seas will build to near 15 ft during the period of gale force winds. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea- Bissau near 12N16W and extends to 02N24W. The ITCZ extends from 02N24W to coastal Brazil near 00N49W. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 02N to 09N between 05W and 20W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is S of 05N between 32W and 50W. ...GULF OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features above for more on a gale warning in the western Gulf. A cold front extends from the Florida panhandle to northern Mexico. Fresh to strong winds are N of the front and W of 92W. Moderate to fresh winds are elsewhere N of the front. Light to gentle winds are SE of the front, reaching moderate speeds S of the front over the western Gulf. Seas are in the 7-9 ft range over the NW Gulf, and 3-5 ft elsewhere N of the front. Seas of 2-4 ft are S of the front and W of 90W, and 1-3 ft S of the front and E of 90W. For the forecast, the front will reach from N-central Florida to the W-central Gulf to Veracruz, Mexico this evening, then will weaken and eventually wash out as it pushes through the southern Gulf by Mon evening. Fresh to near gale-force winds are occurring behind the front in the NW Gulf, lingering offshore of Veracruz through Mon evening. Winds will pulse to gale force this evening in the W Gulf. Seas will build to 10 ft during the strongest winds. High pressure will rebuild in the wake of the front, with gentle to moderate winds across the NE half of the basin, and moderate to fresh across the SW half, pulsing to fresh to strong NW of the Yucatan Peninsula at night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure that had been N of the area is shifting eastward, with pressures falling slightly. This has loosened the pressure gradient across the Caribbean. The weaker pressure gradient is supporting moderate to locally fresh winds in the central Caribbean. Gentle to moderate winds are elsewhere across the Caribbean. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range in the central Caribbean, and 3-4 ft elsewhere. For the forecast, winds will pulse to fresh to strong winds just offshore N Colombia tonight. Otherwise moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail across the central and eastern Caribbean. Mainly gentle to moderate trades will prevail elsewhere, pulsing to moderate to fresh from the Lee of Cuba to the Windward Passage, and offshore central Honduras at times. A decaying cold front may reach into the Caribbean N of 20N Mon night, possibly bringing a brief period of active weather. Slight to moderate seas will prevail across the basin. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please read the Special features section for information on gale conditions expected across the NW waters. Weak ridging prevails across the western Atlantic, anchored by a 1022 mb high centered near 31N53W. Light to gentle winds are in the vicinity of the high center and along the ridge axis. Fresh to locally strong southerly winds are off the coast of N Florida, with gentle to moderate wind sS of the ridge to the Greater Antilles. Seas over these waters are in the 4-6 ft range. Farther east, a 1007 mb low is centered near 31.5N35W, with a secondary 1010 mb low near 27.5N37W. A cold front extends from the second low to near 23N43W, with a trough then continuing to the northern Windward Islands. Fresh to strong winds are in the vicinity of the low pressure centers, with seas of 6-8 ft. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 3-6 ft prevail. For the forecast, a cold front will move offshore NE Florida this evening, reaching from 31N73W to near Stuart, Florida Mon evening, from just E of Bermuda to the SE Bahamas Tue evening, then stalling and dissipating to a trough from near 31N59W to the Turks and Caicos Islands by Wed evening. Fresh to strong winds and building seas will follow the front, mainly N of 27N, increasing to gale speeds N of 30N Monday afternoon and spreading eastward. Winds will decrease below gale late Monday night. Seas will build to 15 ft with the strongest winds. The trough is forecast to linger through the remainder of the week with mainly tranquil conditions for the end of the week.