Tropical Weather Discussion
Status
Issued Active alertStart Time
Mon 02/17/2025 07:15 PM ESTEnd Time
Tue 02/18/2025 01:15 AM ESTImpacts
Informational
Full Alert Message
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Tue Feb 18 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2255 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of America Gale Warning: A strong cold front is forecast to move into the NW Gulf Wed. The front will sweep across the basin through Thu night, with its western portion also stalling. A trough will develop from it over the southwestern Gulf on Fri and linger through Sat night while weakening. Near gale north winds with frequent gusts to gale force will follow the front over the NW Gulf Wed while gale force north winds will be possible west of the front off Tampico, Mexico Wed and Wed night and off Veracruz, Mexico Wed night through Thu night. These winds will produce rough to very rough seas, peaking around 14 ft Wed night off Tampico. Winds and seas will diminish during the weekend. Atlantic Ocean Significant Swell Event: Large, long-period NW swell behind a cold front is sustaining seas of 12 to 21 ft across the central and eastern subtropical Atlantic, north of a line from 31N50W to 20N44W to 31N20W. This swell will subside very gradually while shifting eastward toward the Canary and Cabo Verde Islands tonight and Tuesday. Please, refer to the latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center, at the website: www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFAT2.shtml for details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Sierra Leone and continues southwestward to 04N16W. The ITCZ extends from 04N16W to 02S44W. A few showers are observed near the ITCZ. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Please read the Special Features about the Gale Warning over the western Gulf. A cold front stretches across the Florida Straits to 23N84W, where it becomes a stationary front to the southern Bay of Campeche. The rest of the basin is under the influence of a strong ridge over the Mississippi Valley. Moderate to fresh NE-E winds are evident over much of the western and SE Gulf. Seas in these waters are 4-8 ft, with the highest seas occurring off Veracruz. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent elsewhere. For the forecast, the aforementioned front will continue to push away from the area tonight. Fresh to strong northwest to north winds offshore of Veracruz will diminish early this evening. Elsewhere, fresh to strong winds are expected through the period, becoming more confined to the waters north of 22N and west of 90W Fri through Sat night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A broad subtropical ridge over the central Atlantic extends southwestward into the Caribbean Sea, supporting strong to near gale-force easterly trade winds across the south-central Caribbean. Seas in these waters are 6-9 ft. Moderate to fresh easterly breezes and moderate seas are occurring in the north- central and eastern Caribbean and the Gulf of Honduras. Moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are present elsewhere. For the forecast, mostly fresh trade winds and moderate seas are expected across the central, eastern and portions of the southwestern part of the basin for the rest the week, except for strong to near gale-force winds and rough seas offshore of Colombia. Gentle to moderate winds along with slight to moderate seas will prevail in the northwestern Caribbean through Thu. A cold front will sink into the Yucatan Channel and vicinity waters Thu night into Fri, and weaken as it moves across the northwestern part of the basin through Sat. Fresh northeast to east winds will follow the front. Otherwise, rough seas in east swell will continue east of the Lesser Antilles through early Fri, subsiding afterward. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please refer to the Special Features section for information on the Significant Swell. A cold front extends from near Bermuda to the NW Bahamas and Florida Straits. A few showers are evident near this boundary. The remainder of the SW North Atlantic (west of 55W) is dominated by a 1024 mb high pressure system over the central Atlantic. The pressure gradient between this ridge and the cold front support fresh to locally strong SW winds north of 29N and between the front and 55W. Seas in these waters are 6-8 ft. NW swell is noted behind the frontal boundary, supporting seas of 6-9 ft. The ridge also sustains moderate to fresh easterly trade winds and moderate seas south of 22N. Another cold front enters the tropical Atlantic near 31N18W and continues southwestward to 23N36W, where it becomes a shear line to 22N59W. Fresh to strong cyclonic winds are found north of 27N and east of 31W. Please see the Special Features section to read about the Significant Swell impacting the area. Farther south, the broad ridging forces moderate to fresh easterly winds and moderate to rough seas south of 22N and between Africa and the Lesser Antilles. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast W of 55W, the cold front in the SW North Atlantic will reach from near 31N64W to 26N70W tonight, from near 31N58W to 29N65W early Tue, then become stationary and weaken from 29N55W to 29N65W early Wed. Fresh to strong southwest winds ahead of the front north of 29N will diminish late tonight as the front moves eastward. Rough seas over much of the waters E of 65W will prevail through tonight. Fresh to strong southeast winds will develop over the central and northeast Florida offshore waters early Wed ahead of the next cold front forecast to come off the coast Wed afternoon. This front will reach from near 31N76W to Stuart, Florida Wed night, from near 31N65W to the southeastern Bahamas and eastern Cuba Thu night, from near 29N55W to the Windward Passage Fri night and begin to weaken as it reaches from near 26N55W to 22N64W and stationary to the Windward Passage Sat night. Fresh to strong winds are expected ahead and behind this second front north of about 27N through Fri. Strong high pressure will build Sat and Sat night in the wake of the front. The resultant tight gradient will bring fresh to strong northeast winds west of the front to the Straits of Florida primarily south of 25N beginning Fri night.