Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1805 UTC Wed Apr 14 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1715 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Windward Islands Ashfall Advisory: An Ashfall Advisory remains in effect for La Soufriere Volcano that is on the island of St. Vincent near 13.3N 61.2W. The volcano currently is undergoing occasional emissions from its summit. The volcano could erupt at any time with little notice. Ash may be reaching the surface of the ocean, and low-level visibility may be reduced. Mariners who are transiting the waters near Saint Vincent should exercise caution. If you encounter volcanic ash or volcanic debris, please report the observation to the National Hurricane Center, at 305-229-4424. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Guinea near 10N14W to 04N23W. The ITCZ continues from 04N23W to 02N43W. Scattered moderate convection is from 00N to 08N between 10W-22W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weakening cold front extends across the eastern Gulf including the Florida Straits from 27N85W to 23N80W. The next frontal system is developing over the central Gulf states, with scattered to numerous moderate convection developing north of 29N between 88W-93W. The remainder of the basin is relatively cloud-free. Latest scatterometer date depicts moderate to fresh southeasterly winds prevailing across the basin. The weak cold front will dissipate over the eastern and central Gulf later today. High pressure will prevail across the basin through Wed night. A cold front will reach the northern Gulf Thu, then stall and weaken on Fri. A stronger cold front will move into the Northwest Gulf on Sat, with strong northerly winds and building seas expected across the western Gulf this weekend. CARIBBEAN SEA... An Ashfall Advisory remains in effect for La Soufriere Volcano on St. Vincent. Please refer to the Special Features section above for more details. A weak pressure gradient prevails over the Caribbean waters. Moderate to fresh easterly winds prevail over the basin at this time, according to latest scatterometer data. Seas are 2 to 3 ft across the northern Caribbean, including the Windward Passage, and 3-5 ft elsewhere. Moderate to fresh trade winds will prevail across the Caribbean through Sat, except pulsing locally to fresh to strong through the Windward Passage, south of Hispaniola, and north of Colombia through mid week, then in the south-central Caribbean this weekend. SE winds will pulse to fresh to strong in the Northwest Caribbean starting early Fri. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An Ashfall Advisory remains in effect for La Soufriere Volcano on the island of St. Vincent. Please refer to the Special Features section above for more details. A pair of cold fronts are moving across the western Atlantic waters. The primary cold front extends from a 1003 mb low near 35N55W to 24N65W to 22N75W, then becomes weak from that point to 24N80W. To the east, another cold front extends from 31N51W to 24N58W to northern Hispaniola near 20N70W. Scattered showers are noted along and within 200 nm east of this front, with fresh northerly winds prevailing west of it. Seas are 8 to 12 ft north of the secondary front, and 8-11 ft along the primary frontal boundary. Surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin, anchored by a 1023 mb high centered near 29N29W. Seas are generally 5 to 8 ft across the remainder of the basin, except 3-4 north of the Greater Antilles. The weakening cold front north of Hispaniola and Puerto Rico will move eastward through early today. Fresh to strong northerly winds associated with reinforcing cold air north of the front and east of 70W will shift eastward today and weaken. Another cold front will move east of northern Florida into the northern waters by early Fri, then stall north of the Bahamas this weekend.