Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 634 PM EST Wed Jan 16 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2315 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... ...GALE WARNING IN THE CARIBBEAN SEA... Scatterometer winds over the southwestern Caribbean showed E to SE tradewinds up to 30 kt near the Colombia coastline. The surface ridge will build slightly north of the Caribbean during the next few days. This will enhance the tradewinds up to minimal gale near the Colombia coastline Thursday evening, Friday evening, and possibly Saturday evening. Conditions should subside slightly on Sunday. Please read the High Seas Forecast product under the AWIPS/WMO headers HSFAT2/FZNT02 KNHC for more details. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough emerges from the coast of West Africa near 11N15W and extends to 03N20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03N40W to the coast of South America near 02N50W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 00N-06N between 34W-52W. GULF OF MEXICO... A high pressure ridge is centered over the southeastern U.S. forcing 10-20 kt winds over the Gulf that shifts anticyclonically from NE over the eastern Gulf to SE over the western. No significant deep convection is currently present over the Gulf. A weak 1021 mb low is present over lower Texas coast with a trailing trough extending south from the low along the northeastern Mexico coast. Scattered showers are occurring within 120 nm of the northeastern Mexico coast and the lower Texas coast. On Friday night S winds will be enhanced in the western Gulf ahead of a strong cold front. The front will emerge Saturday and quickly race across the Gulf, reaching south Florida and Cuba by Sunday. There will be the potential for strong thunderstorms ahead and along the front on Saturday and Sunday. Additionally, N gales behind the front are likely on the weekend as well with strongest winds near the Mexican coast. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Gale Warning is in effect for the Caribbean Sea near the coast of Colombia. See discussion above for more information. Elsewhere 10-20 kt tradewinds cover the Caribbean with no organized deep convection present. Isolated showers are occurring near the Leeward Islands including Puerto Rico, Jamaica, the northwestern Caribbean, and Guatemala. In the upper levels, a ridge is over the Caribbean with axis along 83W. Upper level moisture is over Cuba and the Yucatan Peninsula. Strong subsidence is over the remainder of the Caribbean. Fresh to strong trade winds will continue over the south-central Caribbean through Sun night. Highest winds will reach gale force along the coast of Colombia each night starting Thu night through Sat night. Moderate to locally fresh trade winds will prevail elsewhere. A strong cold front will cross the NW Caribbean Sun through Mon. The front will reach the Yucatan Channel on Sun morning, then extend from western Cuba to the Gulf of Honduras by Sun night. Fresh to strong northerly winds are expected behind the front. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A surface trough is over the W Atlantic from 27N73W to the N Bahamas near 26N77W. Scattered showers are within 30 nm of the trough. The tail end of a cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N60W to 27N68W. A dissipating stationary front is further E from 31N55W to 27N60W to 23N69W. Widely scattered moderate convection is from 25N-31N between 50W-65W. A 1030 mb high is centered near the Azores at 37N30W with high pressure ridging over the E Atlantic. Over the W Atlantic, expect the cold front to merge with the dissipating stationary front tonight. A reinforcing surge of cool air will freshen the winds E of the northern Bahamas tonight and Thu. Southerly winds will strengthen this weekend E of Florida ahead of a strong cold front expected to push off the Florida peninsula by Sun afternoon. The front will extend from 31N76W to 23N80W Sun night and from 31N66W to 22N78W on Mon. Gale force winds are possible north of 29N on either side of the front Sun and Mon. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine