Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1215 UTC Tue May 20 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1000 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is across the eastern Atlantic along 25W, to the south of 10N, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted about the wave from 02N to 06N between 21.5W and 28.5W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough exits the coast of western Africa near 09.5N13.5W along the coast of Guinea and extends southwestward to near 06N23W. The ITCZ extends from 05N30W and continues westward to the coast of Brazil near 03.5N51W. Aside from the convection associated with the tropical wave, scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 02N to 07N between 06W and 20W, and south of 08.5N west of 42W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is also noted from 02.5N to 06N between 29W and 35.5W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... Weak high pressure offshore of Tampa Bay has collapsed, leaving a broad and weak ridge extending from 1016 mb high pressure E of the Bahamas extending W-NW across the NE Gulf. The pressure gradient between this ridge and lower pressure across central Texas and interior Mexico is supporting moderate to fresh S to SE winds across much of the Gulf west of 87W, with a small area of strong Se winds north of the Yucatan coast. Seas are 4 to 7 ft across this area, with highest seas to 7 ft offshore of Texas and north of the Yucatan. Winds are moderate or weaker elsewhere over the basin, with seas of 1-4 ft east of 87W. No significant deep convection is depicted at this time. Otherwise, smoke from agricultural fires over southeastern Mexico continues to create hazy conditions over the west and southwestern Gulf W of 93W, including the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the current weak ridge extending into the NE Gulf will maintain moderate to fresh SE winds and moderate seas across the western Gulf through today before winds weaken slightly. A weak cold front will move into the N Gulf Tue night, stall, then lift north and dissipate Wed night. Yet another weak front will sink into the NE Gulf Thu through Thu night then dissipate. High pressure is expected to move into the NE Gulf this coming weekend and dominate the basin. E winds will pulse fresh to strong along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through the period as a trough develops daily and drifts westward at night. Smoke from agricultural fires in southeastern Mexico will continue to maintain hazy sky conditions across the W and SW Gulf through the period. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... High pressure centered just E of the Bahamas extends a weak ridge across Florida and into the NE Gulf of America, while a surface trough extends from the central Atlantic to north of the Leeward Island. This weather pattern is supporting gentle to moderate winds across the basin W of 75W, except for fresh to strong E to SE winds north of Honduras, and fresh winds north of Venezuela. Seas across much of the Caribbean are in the 2 to 4 ft range, except 4 to 5 ft across south central portions and 5 to 7 ft across the Gulf of Honduras. Scattered moderate convection has developed across the SW Caribbean south of 11N, near the monsoon trough. while widely scattered moderate convection is about the waters E of 70W. For the forecast, the current pattern of weak high pressure E of the Bahamas and a surface trough extends from the central Atlantic to north of the Leeward Island will yield generally moderate winds across the basin west of 75W through Wed, except for fresh to strong E to SE winds pulsing during the late afternoon through night across the Gulf of Honduras throughout the next several days. Moderate to locally fresh trades will prevail across the basin E of 75W through Wed. The surface trough will weaken and drift northeast during the next few days, and gradually allow high pressure to strengthen north of the basin. Look for increasing trades and building seas across the central part of the basin by Wed night, reaching the coast of Nicaragua by early Fri. Meanwhile, moderate trades and seas will prevail in the Tropical N Atlantic, freshening by Fri. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Deep-layered low pressure continues to shift E-NE and weaken across the central Atlantic this morning, extending from 28N45W southwestward across Puerto Rico and Hispaniola. Associated convection occurring along and east of this feature continues to decrease in areal coverage and intensity, and is now moderate from 20N northward between 39W and 44W. Widely scattered moderate convection also continues south of 15N between 50W and 60W. A persistent surface trough continues along 56W-57W, while weak 1016 mb high pressure is just east of the Bahamas. An old frontal trough extends southward into the area from the central Atlantic along 56W and then continues westward along 30N to 70W. Scattered moderate convection is along this boundary. Due to the very weak pressure gradient in the area, winds are moderate or weaker west of the surface trough, except locally fresh westerlies along 30N between 63W and 70W. Seas are 3-6 ft west of the trough to 70W, and 2 to 4 ft further west. East of the surface trough, a 1026 mb Azores High is centered near 33N32W. A moderate pressure gradient between the high and lower pressure over the ITCZ/monsoon trough is causing moderate to fresh NE to E winds south of 28N east of 56W, except fresh to strong NE winds along the Western Sahara/Morocco coasts and between the Canary Islands. Seas are 6-8 ft east of 60W, except 4-5 ft north of 26N between 20W-55W, within the lighter winds of the ridge axis. For the forecast west of 55W, the surface trough persisting along 56W-57W will drift NE and lift north of the area through early Thu, while the high pressure to its west drifts eastward. This pattern will support gentle to moderate winds S of 22N and moderate westerly winds north of 27N due to a weak frontal trough sweeping along 30N. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds will pulse north of Hispaniola and in the Windward Passage each night for the next few days. Fresh SW winds and building seas are expected over the NW portion of the area and northeast of the Bahamas Tue night and Wed, ahead of a cold front moving off the southeastern United States coast Wed night. The front will reach from near 31N72W to the NW Bahamas by late Thu, then weaken and dissipate as it drifts NE Fri through Sat morning.