Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 205 AM EDT Sat Aug 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0530 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm JOSEPHINE, at 15/0300 UTC, is near 18.3N 57.4W. JOSEPHINE is moving toward the WNW, or 300 degrees, 14 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. JOSEPHINE should pass far enough to the northeast of the Leeward Islands during the weekend in order to prevent major impacts. Please, monitor the progress of JOSEPHINE if you are in the area of the Leeward Islands, until the storm has passed completely away from that area. It is possible that locally heavy rainfall may reach the areas of the northern Leeward Islands, the Virgin Islands, and Puerto Rico, as JOSEPHINE passes to the northeast of that area. It is possible that isolated minor flooding may happen in Puerto Rico through Monday. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong in clusters is within 240 nm of the center in the NE semicircle. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT1.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT1.shtml, for more details. The center of Tropical Storm KYLE, at 15/0300 UTC, is 38.3N 70.0W, or about 215 nm/400 km to the ESE of Atlantic City in New Jersey. KYLE is moving ENE, or 065 degrees, 14 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 1006 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 40 knots with gusts to 50 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 300 nm of the center in the southern semicircle. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml, and the Forecast/Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38W/39W from 20N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: any nearby precipitation is related to the monsoon trough. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W from 22N southward, moving westward 15 knots. An area of low pressure is expected to form, in association with this wave and the monsoon trough, in the next day or two, to the west of Central America. The atmospheric conditions are conducive for development. It is likely that a tropical depression or storm may form during this weekend or early next week, while the system moves west-northwestward, to the south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Heavy rainfall is possible across Central America during this weekend. Current precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 06N to 10N between 73W and 77W, covering parts of Colombia and its coastal plains and coastal waters, and sections of the Colombia/Venezuela border near NW Venezuela. Widely scattered to scattered strong in clusters covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, and interior sections of Panama and southern Costa Rica, from 12N southward from 77W westward. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal border areas of Senegal near 15N17W, to 15N21W 14N33W 12N37W. The ITCZ is along 09N40W 09N50W 12N57W 13N60W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 180 nm on either side of the monsoon trough. Isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm on either side of the monsoon trough, and within 180 nm on either side of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... An upper level cyclonic circulation center is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, near 22N98W, along the coast of Mexico. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the Gulf of Mexico from 27N southward from 90W westward. A tropical wave is along 98W/99W from 21N southward, moving westward through the parts of Mexico, and mostly in the eastern Pacific Ocean. Broken to overcast multilayered convective debris clouds, and possibly remnant rainshowers, cover the Gulf of Mexico and inland sections of Mexico, from 24N southward from 88W westward, continuing to inland areas of Mexico. Precipitation: isolated moderate to the NE of the line that runs from SE Louisiana to NW Cuba. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow spans the entire area. The surface pressure gradient is comparatively flat. High pressure in the northern Gulf of Mexico will support gentle winds and slight seas in the entire area through early into the next week. Locally fresh winds are possible, each night through Sunday night, in the eastern Bay of Campeche near the Yucatan Peninsula, due to local effects. CARIBBEAN SEA... A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 83W/84W from 22N southward, moving westward 15 knots. An area of low pressure is expected to form, in association with this wave and the monsoon trough, in the next day or two, to the west of Central America. The atmospheric conditions are conducive for development. It is likely that a tropical depression or storm may form during this weekend or early next week, while the system moves west-northwestward, to the south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Heavy rainfall is possible across Central America during this weekend. Current precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is from 06N to 10N between 73W and 77W, covering parts of Colombia and its coastal plains and coastal waters, and sections of the Colombia/Venezuela border near NW Venezuela. Widely scattered to scattered strong in clusters covers the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, and interior sections of Panama and southern Costa Rica, from 12N southward from 77W westward. Widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in central/southern sections of Haiti. Isolated moderate covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. Tropical Storm Josephine near 18.3N 57.4W 1005 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Josephine will move to 19.2N 59.3W Sat morning, 20.4N 61.6W Sat evening, 21.7N 63.9W Sun morning, the weaken to a tropical depression near 23.2N 65.8W Sun evening. Tropical Depression Josephine will reach near 24.7N 67.2W Mon morning, and 26.4N 67.7W Mon evening. Josephine will become a remnant low, as it moves toward Bermuda late on Tuesday. Fresh trade winds will continue in the south central Caribbean Sea on Saturday. The comparatively fastest wind speeds are expected near the coast of Colombia and in the Gulf of Venezuela. ATLANTIC OCEAN... An upper level trough extends from one upper level cyclonic circulation center that is about 180 nm to the south of Bermuda, to a second upper level cyclonic circulation center that is between Andros Island in the Bahamas and Cuba. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is in SE Cuba on the Caribbean Sea side. Isolated moderate is from 28N northward between 57W and 66W. A surface trough is along 32N44W 28N47W 24N50W. Precipitation: rainshowers are within 150 nm on either side of the surface trough. Rainshowers also cover the Atlantic Ocean from 20N to 25N between 46W and 60W. Some of this precipitation is at the northern fringes of the precipitation that is accompanying Tropical Storm JOSEPHINE. Broad surface anticyclonic wind flow covers the Atlantic Ocean from 26N northward, away from the 32N44W-24N50W surface trough. Tropical Storm Josephine near 18.3N 57.4W 1005 mb at 11 PM EDT moving WNW at 14 kt. Maximum sustained winds 40 kt gusts 50 kt. Josephine will move to 19.2N 59.3W Sat morning, 20.4N 61.6W Sat evening, 21.7N 63.9W Sun morning, then weaken to a tropical depression near 23.2N 65.8W Sun evening. Tropical Depression Josephine will reach 24.7N 67.2W Mon morning and 26.4N 67.7W Mon evening. Josephine will become a remnant low as it moves toward Bermuda late Tue. A persistent ridge, extending from the Atlantic Ocean into the Gulf of Mexico, will support gentle to moderate east to southeast winds.