Tropical Weather Discussion

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0615 UTC Fri Jul 11 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is analyzed near 24W from 06N-17N, moving west at around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is active from 07N-15N and E of 27W. A tropical wave is analyzed near 38W, from 08N-20N, moving west at around 10-15 kt. A 1014 mb low pres is analyzed along the wave axis near 08N37W. Scattered moderate convection is noted in the vicinity of the low. A tropical wave has been introduced to this analysis, with axis near 60W from 07N to 17N. This wave is depicted in wave diagnostics, and a wind surge is noted in scatterometer data in the vicinity of the wave axis. Saharan dust is also in the environment of the wave at this time, which continues to inhibit convection. A tropical wave is analyzed near 73W from 20N to NW Venezuela, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is over NW Venezuela. A tropical wave is analyzed near 89W from 17N southward into the E Pacific to 07N89W, moving west at around 10 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over Honduras and El Salvador. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 15N17W to 07N42W. The ITCZ extends from 07N42W to 05N53W. Aside from the convection related to the tropical waves described above, scattered showers are noted along the ITCZ mainly W of 50W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A 1019 mb high is centered near 27N89W, leading to light to gentle winds across the Gulf. Slight seas prevail across the basin. The diurnal thermal trough is exiting the Yucatan Peninsula and entering the Bay of Campeche, with scattered moderate convection along it. For the forecast, weak high pressure will prevail across the basin through the forecast period. Fresh to strong northeast to east winds will pulse along and just north of the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening as a trough develops inland daily and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the section above for details on convection associated with the tropical waves. A moderate pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the area to lower pressure along the monsoon trough over the SW Caribbean is forcing fresh to strong trades over the central Caribbean with gentle to moderate winds elsewhere. Rough seas are in the SW Caribbean, moderate seas in the central and E Caribbean, and slight seas in the NW Caribbean. For the forecast, the pressure gradient will continue to support pulsing fresh to strong trades and rough seas across the south- central Caribbean through the forecast period. Mostly fresh east winds are expected in the Gulf of Honduras, mainly at night, into early next week. Moderate to fresh winds and moderate seas are expected in the eastern Caribbean through the weekend while gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail elsewhere. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details on convection associated with the tropical waves and the monsoon trough over the basin. Surface ridging extends along roughly 29N in the Atlantic between a 1026 mb Bermuda High near 32N60W and a 1026 mb Azores High near 33N26W. A weak pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressures near the ITCZ/monsoon trough is causing only moderate to fresh trades. The exceptions are fresh to strong trades just north of Hispaniola and over SE Bahamas as well as between the Canary Islands and coastal Western Sahara. Moderate seas prevail over forecast waters. Additionally for convection, scattered moderate convection from 25N-28N between 78W-80W in association with a surface trough over Cuba to the NW Bahamas. For the forecast west of 55W, the Bermuda High will extend its ridge northward to central Florida Fri through Sun night, and back south to South Florida early next week. The related pressure gradient will support gentle to moderate winds, except for fresh to strong east to southeast winds off the northern coast of Hispaniola through Sat and fresh winds Sun.