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Tropical Weather Discussion


Issued Active alert

Start Time

Thu 07/18/2019 08:41 AM EDT

End Time

Thu 08/01/2019 08:41 AM EDT



Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 841 AM EDT Thu Jul 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave passing the Cabo Verde Islands is along 27W from 04N-19N, moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is in the vicinity of the wave. A tropical wave extends from 30N43W to 18N42W, moving SW at 25-30 kt. This is not an African easterly wave. This wave originated over the NE Atlantic. The wave is traveling through a dry environment, and no convection is noted. A tropical wave is along 57W from 24N southward, moving west at 10-15 kt. This wave has a well defined surface signature on satellite imagery. Scattered showers are present near the wave axis mainly from 20N-24N between 54W-56W. An eastern Caribbean tropical wave is along 71W from 26N southward, moving west at 15-20 kt. Radar imagery shows scattered showers near and over Puerto Rico, Mona Passage and Hispaniola. Along most of the wave axis, dry air over the Caribbean is preventing any convection at this time. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of W Africa near Senegal 13N16W to 09N24W. The ITCZ begins near 07N28W to the coast of South America near 01N49W. Besides the convection mentioned in the tropical wave section, scattered moderate convection are seen from 04N-08N between 28W-44W and also along the coast of Sierra Leone and Guinea. GULF OF MEXICO... Weak surface ridging is over the the northern Gulf of Mexico, anchored by a 1018 mb surface high centered near Central FL. Gentle winds prevail over the NE Gulf and central Gulf. 10-15 kt SE winds are over the far W and SW Gulf. Scattered showers and tstorms are in the far NE Gulf just offshore the Florida Big Bend. Isolated showers and tstorms are also been enhance by the tropical wave near 89W in the Bay of Campeche and NW portion of the Yucatan Peninsula. A high pressure ridge will remain near the northern Gulf coast through Sun night before it weakens Monday. Gentle to moderate east to southeast winds will generally continue across the basin, except fresh to occasionally strong winds to the NW of the Yucatan peninsula during the evening and overnight hours. CARIBBEAN SEA... Refer to the Special Features section above for details on the Gale Warning for the coast of N Colombia. Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the waves traversing the Caribbean. Upper-level ridging is over the central Caribbean. GOES-16 low and mid level water vapor channels indicate the presence of dry air over much of the eastern and central Caribbean Sea. This does not include the Windward Islands, where moisture is leading to scattered showers and tstorms from 10N-15N between 57W-64W. The western Caribbean is somewhat more moist, with scattered tstorms noted over western Cuba. ASCAT data indicates strong trade winds south of 13N between 72W-77W with mainly moderate to fresh winds from 15N-13N in the central Caribbean extending into the Gulf of Honduras, and gentle to moderate on the eastern Caribbean. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds over the central Caribbean through the forecast period. Gale force winds will prevail along the Coast of Colombia tonight into early Thu. Locally strong trade winds will pulse across the Gulf of Honduras each night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the Tropical Waves section above for details on the waves traversing the basin. Scattered showers and tstorms cover the W Atlantic to the west into the Bahamas. Remainder of the basin is dominated by a broad 1030 mb high centered near 36N25W. A high pressure ridge along 29N/30N will maintain gentle to moderate east to southeast winds through Mon night. Winds will pulse to fresh to strong between the southeastern Bahamas and Hispaniola, primarily during the evening hours. For additional information please visit