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Tropical Weather Discussion


Issued Active alert

Start Time

Sun 05/26/2019 07:52 PM EDT

End Time

Sun 06/09/2019 07:52 PM EDT



Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 752 PM EDT Sun May 26 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2319 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Excessive Rainfall Over Central America... The Central American Gyre will continue to bring abundant moisture and heavy rainfall across portions of Central America during the next few days. Life-threatening flash flooding and mudslides will be possible in areas of mountainous terrains. Please refer to the local meteorological service for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave extends across the east tropical Atlantic analyzed along 25W from 10N-01S, moving west at 10-15 kt. Scattered showers are seen within the vicinity of this feature. A tropical wave continues moving west across the central Atlantic, with axis along 56W and from 13N-02S. The wave is moving at around 15 kt. Scattered showers with isolated thunderstorms are noted along the wave's axis mainly south of 05N. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coast of Guinea near 10N14W to 05N22W. The ITCZ extends from 04N27W to 02S45W. Scattered moderate convection is seen along the monsoon trough between 19W-23W, in addition to scattered moderate convection seen from 07N-03N and east of 16W to the Ivory Coast. Scattered moderate convection is also noted along the ITCZ west of 36W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging continues across the basin from a 1021 mb high pressure over southern Alabama near 32N87W. Fair weather prevails across the Gulf. Scatterometer data depicts light to gentle easterly winds in the northeast Gulf, with gentle to moderate east-southeasterly winds for the rest of the basin. Moderate to fresh winds prevail across the Straits of Florida. Smoke continues over the Bay of Campeche and the western Gulf mainly west of 93W. High pressure over the southeastern U.S. and northeast Gulf will maintain moderate to fresh southeast flow over the western Gulf and gentle to moderate breezes elsewhere through Thursday. A trough will form over the Yucatan Peninsula each day and move into the southwestern Gulf in the mornings, supporting locally fresh to strong winds during the evenings. Smoke from fires in southern Mexico will maintain hazy skies over much of the southwestern Gulf and eastern Bay of Campeche through the early part of the week. CARIBBEAN SEA... Scattered moderate to strong convection is seen across the southwest Caribbean off the Central American and Colombian coasts. See the above section for more details on the excessive rainfall threat over Central America. Moderate to strong convection is currently underway across Cuba and Hispaniola. Some of these storms are moving into adjacent waters. Jamaica and Puerto Rico are also experiencing thunderstorms. Meanwhile, isolated showers are moving across portions of the Lesser Antilles. Gentle to moderate trades prevail across most of the Caribbean, with light winds in the Bay of Honduras and fresh to strong winds north of Colombia. High pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to locally fresh trades across the basin through the middle of next week. Broad low pressure across Central America and the adjacent eastern Pacific waters will generate showers and thunderstorms over much of the western Caribbean through at least the early part of the week. A tropical wave along 55W will move across the rest of the Tropical N Atlantic waters tonight, then across the eastern Caribbean Monday through Tuesday, then across the central Caribbean Tuesday night through Wednesday night while it loses its identity. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Refer to the section above for details about the tropical waves currently moving across the basin. A cold front enters the west-central Atlantic near 31N49W and extends westward to 25N63W to 27N77W. From 27N77W, the tail-end of the boundary stalls and extends northward to 31N77W. Ahead of the front, a trough extends from 30N48W to 20N72W. Showers are seen along the front and the trough, particularly north of 28N. Elsewhere, surface ridging prevails across the remainder of the basin. A cold front west of the northern Bahamas will move south and stall along 24N Mon before dissipating Monday night. A high pressure ridge will build behind the front along roughly 28N through Wednesday, then shift slightly northward late Wednesday through Friday night. For additional information please visit