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Tropical Weather Discussion

Status

Issued Active alert

Start Time

Wed 06/03/2020 08:05 AM EDT

End Time

Wed 06/17/2020 08:05 AM EDT

Impacts

Informational

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 805 AM EDT Wed Jun 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1030 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... The center of Tropical Storm Cristobal is near 19.1N 92.3W at 03/0900 UTC. This position also is about 30 nm NNW of Ciudad del Carmen Mexico. Cristobal is moving southeastward at 3 knots. The estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. The maximum sustained wind speeds are 50 knots with gusts to 60 knots. Precipitation: scattered to numerous strong is within 240 nm of the center, including in the Yucatan Peninsula. Scattered moderate isolated strong is elsewhere from 22N southward between 90W and 95W. Movement: the storm is expected to move slowly southward or southeastward, as it remains within a larger cyclonic gyre that is centered in eastern Mexico. This motion should bring the center onshore to the coast of Mexico, in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico, later today. Cristobal is forecast to continue to move very slowly toward the east or southeast through early Thursday. Increasing southerly flow should allow the storm to begin moving northward in the central and northern Gulf of Mexico by this weekend. Additional heavy rainfall is expected in southern Mexico and northern Central America, potentially leading to life-threatening flash floods and mudslides during the next few days. Please read the latest NHC forecast advisory at hurricanes.gov for more information. ...EXCESSIVE RAINFALL IN CENTRAL AMERICA AND MEXICO... Tropical Storm Cristobal is part of a larger Central American Gyre circulation, that has been bringing heavy rainfall and severe flooding to parts of Central America and southern Mexico during the last several days. Additional heavy rainfall is expected through Saturday in parts of southern Mexico from the Yucatan Peninsula through Chiapas to eastern sections of Veracruz and Oaxaca. For Central America: in parts of Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and southwestern Honduras: it is likely that these areas also may receive additional heavy rainfall. It is possible that the rainfall total for the entire event, from tropical cyclones and the gyre circulation, may end up reaching 35 inches, nearly one meter. It is possible that the rains may lead to additional life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please read bulletins and forecasts that are issued by your local or national meteorological service, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 28W, from 18N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is on either side of the tropical wave, with either the monsoon trough or with the ITCZ. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 52W, from 17N southward, moving W 10 to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 90 nm on either side of the tropical wave. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal sections of Sierra Leone near 08N13W, to 05N17W and 03N24W. The ITCZ is along 06N from 30W to 47W. Precipitation: scattered moderate isolatedstrong is within 220 nm to the north of the ITCZ between 42W and 45W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong is within 180 nm to the south of the monsoon trough, and within 180 nm to the north of the monsoon trough between 18W and 25W. Isolated moderate covers the rest of the area from the monsoon trough to 10N from the 28W tropical wave eastward, and within 300 nm to the north of the ITCZ. GULF OF MEXICO... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about Tropical Storm Cristobal. Broken to overcast multi-layered clouds, and widely scattered moderate to isolated strong rain showers cover the rest of the Gulf of Mexico, except within 210 nm of the coast of Texas. The clouds and precipitation are related to moisture that is around the periphery of the circulation of T.S. Cristobal. Tropical Storm Cristobal near 18.9N 92.0W, maximum sustained winds 50 kt gusts 60 kt. Cristobal will move inland today, weaken to a tropical depression, re-intensify to a tropical storm on Fri, then increase in intensity and move northward through Sat night. After Cristobal moves inland, moderate to fresh southerly flow will be present across most of the area through Sun night. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please read the SPECIAL FEATURES section for details about the heavy rainfall situation for Central America. Upper level anticyclonic wind flow is spinning away from the area that is around T.S. CRISTOBAL, that is in the SW corner of the Gulf of Mexico. The upper level anticyclonic wind flow covers the Caribbean Sea from 70W westward. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 15N northward and 70W westward, in the waters between Jamaica, Haiti, and Cuba; and from 15N northward from 82W westward. Upper level cyclonic wind flow covers the rest of the Caribbean Sea, from 70W eastward. The base of the upper level trough is reaching eastern Venezuela. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is in the Mona Passage. One part of the monsoon trough extends from northern Colombia, across the SW corner of the Caribbean Sea, beyond northern Nicaragua, to southern Belize. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is to the south of a line that runs from the NE corner of Nicaragua to the coast of Colombia near 11N75W. Scattered moderate to strong is from 07N to 11N between 72W and 75W. A broad area of low pressure, known as the Central American Gyre, will persist in northern Central America and southern Mexico for several days. Expect widespread heavy rain showers and thunderstorms in the NW Caribbean Sea. Strong SE winds, and seas, are expected to continue in the Gulf of Honduras and east of Yucatan, through Saturday. Fresh trade winds are expected in the central Caribbean Sea through Saturday night. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A western Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N49W, to 26N59W, to the central Bahamas near Andros Island. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 270 nm to the SSE of the cold front from 66W eastward. An eastern Atlantic Ocean cold front passes through 32N16W, to 28N20W, 27N30W, to 31N37W. Precipitation: isolated moderate is within 120 nm on either side of the cold front. The western Atlantic Ocean cold front will drift southward and stall this morning, then slowly dissipate through tonight. High pressure north of the front will support moderate to fresh trade winds, mainly north of Hispaniola, through Saturday.