Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 104 PM EDT Mon Mar 25 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1645 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough extends from the northern coast of Liberia near 07N11W to 01S20W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 03S30W to the coast of Brazil near 03S40W. Scattered moderate with isolated strong convection is seen from 01N-06N between 04W-23W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 03S-02N between 29W- 49W. GULF OF MEXICO... Surface ridging prevails across the basin, anchored by a 1021 mb surface high centered near the Florida Big Bend. This is producing gentle to moderate anticyclonic winds across the majority of the basin. Isolated showers are noted over the E Gulf from 25N-27N between 84W-87W due to a weak transient trough in the area that was not analyzed on the 1200 UTC surface map. Elsewhere, cloud cover is increasing over the N Gulf ahead of a surface trough and cold front located well inland from the N Gulf Coast over the southern United States. Scattered moderate showers and isolated thunderstorms are along this trough. Some of these showers could reach the northern Gulf waters late today ahead of the cold front. The cold front will move into the northern Gulf late today through tonight. Fresh to strong northerly winds will follow the front over the northeast Gulf Wed as the front sweeps southward and exits the Gulf late Wed. Expect moderate to fresh southerly return flow over the northwest Gulf by late week as high pressure builds over the Carolinas in the wake of the front. CARIBBEAN SEA... A surface trough is analyzed from the Central Bahamas to E Cuba near 21N77W to 17N80W. Isolated showers are noted over the northern Caribbean north of 18N from Hispaniola to central Cuba. Isolated showers are also north of 17N near the Mona Passage and western Puerto Rico. Scatterometer data shows moderate to fresh trades over much of the eastern and central Caribbean, with strong winds south of 13N near the coast of Colombia. High pressure north of the area will support fresh to strong trade winds off Colombia into mid week. The winds will diminish mid to late week as the high pressure shifts east ahead of a cold front. The front will move into the northwest Caribbean late Wed, then stall and weaken from eastern Cuba to eastern Honduras through the latter part of the week. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front extends from 32N42W to 28N51W to 27N58W, and continues as a dissipating stationary front to 26N65W to 25N71W. A surface trough extends from 25N73W through the central Bahamas to E Cuba near 21N77W to 17N80W. Scattered showers and isolated thunderstorms are seen from 22N-27N between 65W-79W, including the Bahamas and waters east of the Bahamas. Isolated showers are also seen near the Florida Straits. Scattered showers are within 60 nm of the front between 42W-65W. Scatterometer data shows fresh NE winds within 150 nm north of the front between 50W-71W. Over the far NE Atlantic, an occluded 1008 mb low is near 28N17W, with a cold front extending from 28N16W to 23N17W to 20N21W, dissipating to 19N33W. Additional lows and troughs are located east of this system to Morocco. Scattered moderate convection covers the NE Atlantic north of 25N and east of 20W to portions of Morocco. Isolated showers are within 60 nm of the cold front south of 25N. The stationary front from 26N65W to 25N71W will drift northward to along 27N this afternoon and gradually dissipate. A strong cold front will move off the NE Florida coast Tuesday evening. Low pressure will develop along the front to the north or northeast of the NW Bahamas late Wednesday through Thursday, followed by strong to gale force northerly winds. The front and low pressure will drift slowly eastward through late week. For additional information please visit http://www.hurricanes.gov/marine