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Tropical Weather Discussion


Issued Active alert

Start Time

Thu 10/17/2019 06:55 PM EDT

End Time

Thu 10/31/2019 06:55 PM EDT



Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 655 PM EDT Thu Oct 17 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2240 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen is centered near 22.9N 95.2W at 17/2100 UTC or 155 nm ENE of Tampico Mexico moving NNE at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1005 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 35 kt with gusts to 45 kt. On the forecast track, the system will approach the northern Gulf coast Friday and Friday night. The disturbance is expected to develop into a tropical or subtropical storm tonight or Friday, with slow strengthening then expected through Friday night. There is a high chance for tropical cyclone formation within 48 hours. See the latest NHC forecast/advisory under AWIPS/WMO headers MIATCMAT1/WTNT21 KNHC or the website for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 38/39W from 13N southward, moving W around 15 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is from 04N-09N between 33W-40W. A tropical wave is over the Lesser Antilles along 60/61W from 20N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is from 10N-23N between 55W-62W. Expect enhanced rains over the Lesser Antilles tonight and Friday morning. A western Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 80W from 19N southward, moving W at 10-15 kt. Isolated to scattered moderate convection is within 120 nm of the wave axis south of 14N, including over Panama, enhanced by the East Pacific monsoon trough. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the border of Guinea-Bissau and Guinea near 11N15W to 08N25W to 06N36W. The ITCZ extends from 06N41W to 05N52W. Scattered moderate convection is seen within 270 nm of the monsoon trough between the coast of Africa and 33W. GULF OF MEXICO... Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen is over the Gulf of Mexico. See above for details. As of 17/2100 UTC, a stationary front extends from Venice Florida near 27N82W to 27N95W to 23N97W, dissipating to 21N98W. Strong upper-level divergence over the Gulf of Mexico, the stationary front, and Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen are enhancing scattered moderate convection from 19N-30N between 85W-96W. The center of Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen will move to near 27N 90W Fri afternoon, inland over the Florida Panhandle Saturday morning, and over southern Georgia Saturday afternoon. Strong to gale force winds will cover a large area in the Gulf of Mexico Friday through Saturday morning at the cyclone moves northeastward. Waves heights of 12-20 ft will also accompany this system over a large area. CARIBBEAN SEA... Two tropical waves are over the basin. See above. A large mid-upper level high along with subsidence covers much of the central and northern Caribbean. Precipitation is enhanced over the Lesser Antilles in association with a tropical wave and in the SW Caribbean near the other tropical wave along 80W. Moderate to fresh trade winds are expected across the basin through the upcoming weekend, with fresh SE winds likely across NW portions Fri and Sat as Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen moves NE across the Gulf of Mexico. A tropical wave across the Lesser Antilles this evening will be accompanied by very active weather as it moves W across the eastern Caribbean tonight through Fri. ATLANTIC OCEAN... A cold front is over the W Atlantic from 31N69W to 27N78W. It continues W as a stationary front along 27N just N of Lake Okeechobee to Venice Florida. Isolated showers and tstorms are near southeast Florida from 25N-27N between 78W-81W. A surface trough is from 30N65W to 26N68W. Isolated showers are near the northern end of the trough. A 1015 mb surface high is producing calm weather near 22N65W. An upper-level trough extends northeastward from the NE Caribbean to 25N57W to 31N45W. Cloudiness along with scattered showers and isolated tstorms is within 150 nm either side of a line that extends from 23N54W to 29N49.5W to 32N40W. In the eastern Atlantic, a surface trough extends from 24N28W to 17N31W. Scattered moderate convection is near the northern end of this trough from 22N-26N between 25W-29W. An E-W high pressure ridge extends along 30/32N between 15W-38W. The northeastern portion of the cold front over the W Atlantic will move eastward into the central Atlantic through early Fri. Then, the front will stall and become ill-defined east of Florida on Fri. Potential Tropical Cyclone Sixteen in the SW Gulf of Mexico will move NE across the SE U.S. this weekend, and produce strong to near gale force southerly winds ahead of it across NW Atlc waters late Fri night through Sun evening, mainly north of 27N and west of 73W. Weak high pressure will prevail across the area Mon and Tue.