Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0605 UTC Wed Jun 07 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0545 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Excessive Rainfall - Cuba, Bahamas, Jamaica, Cayman Islands: Moist southerly middle level wind flow is forecast to combine with enhanced rising air motion, in order to help to produce strong thunderstorms and heavy rainfall amounts. A nearby strong upper level jet stream, that will be just to the northwest the forecast area, also is forecast to play a role in the potential for the convective precipitation. The comparatively greatest amounts of rainfall are expected to occur from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday afternoon, especially in parts of eastern and central Cuba, in the central Bahamas, in Jamaica, and in the Cayman Islands. It is possible that these rains may cause flooding, especially in the mountainous areas of eastern and central Cuba. Please, refer to the latest forecast from your national meteorological service for more information. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is analyzed along 25W/26W, from 14N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is within 180 nm on either side of the tropical wave. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 46W, from 13N southward, moving westward about 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 04N to 08N between 44W and 50W. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 66W/67W, from 14N southward, moving westward from 15 knots to 20 knots. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is between 60W and the tropical wave from 14N southward. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 76W/77W, from 15N southward, moving westward from 10 knots to 15 knots. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 11N to 14N between 77W and 80W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal plains of Guinea-Bissau near 11N, to 08N24W. The ITCZ continues from 08N24W to 05N34W 02N39W, to 04N51W near the coast of Brazil, and just to the east of French Guiana. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 10N southward from 20W eastward, and from the ITCZ to 10N between 30W and 42W. Isolated moderate to locally strong is in the remainder of the area that is from 10N southward from 60W eastward. ...GULF OF MEXICO... The surface pressure gradient currently is flat and weak. The sea heights range from 1 foot to 2 feet throughout the area. The wind speeds are light and gentle. The GFS model for 250 mb, for 500 mb, and for 700 mb shows broad cyclonic wind flow in the Gulf of Mexico. The water vapor imagery shows broad upper level cyclonic wind flow. Comparatively drier air in subsidence is from 27N southward between 85W and 95W. Precipitation: isolated moderate to locally strong is from 90W eastward. High pressure will generally prevail across the basin through the end of the week, with mainly gentle to moderate winds. Moderate return flow will develop across the western Gulf during the upcoming weekend. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for heavy rainfall to affect the NW Caribbean Sea, from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. A weak pressure gradient spans the area. Gentle to moderate trade winds are everywhere. The sea heights range: from 4 feet to 5 feet from the Windward Passage eastward, and from 2 feet to 3 feet elsewhere. Precipitation: scattered moderate to strong covers the areas that are from the southern coastal waters of Jamaica to SE Cuba. This precipitation is at the eastern edges of the multilayered cyclonic wind flow that is covering the Gulf of Mexico, and it is spilling over into parts of the NW Caribbean Sea. Weak high pressure across the central Tropical Atlantic will shift NW and strengthen through Wed night, producing increasing winds and seas over the eastern and central Caribbean through early Fri. Active weather is expected across N central portions through Fri. Atlantic high pressure will shift NE and weaken Fri night through the weekend, with winds and seas across the basin diminishing modestly. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please, read the SPECIAL FEATURES section, for heavy rainfall to affect the Bahamas, from Wednesday afternoon through Saturday afternoon. A cold front passes through 31N58W, from a 1007 mb low pressure center that is near 34N55W, to 30N60W 26N70W, to Andros Island in the Bahamas. Precipitation: widely scattered moderate to isolated strong is from 70W westward. Isolated moderate to locally strong is elsewhere to the north of the line that runs from 31N48W to 70W in the Dominican Republic. Fresh to strong SW winds, and sea heights that range from 6 feet to 8 feet, are ahead of the front. A second cold front curves through 31N13W, to 27N20W, 23N30W, 23N37W, to 31N46W. Precipitation: broken to overcast multilayered clouds, and isolated moderate to locally strong, are from 20N northward from 50W eastward. Near the Canary Islands, north of 28N east of 20W, the winds are SW to S strong to near gale force with seas of 8-11 ft. A 1018 mb high pressure center is near 20N56W. Surface anticyclonic wind flow is within 440 nm of the center. A surface ridge runs along 20N, between Africa and 70W. The wind speeds are moderate or slower, and the sea heights are ranging from 4 feet to 7 feet. A weak cold front from 31N58W to the central Bahamas along 77W will drift SE tonight and dissipate. High pressure across the central Atlantic will build westward across the forecast waters Wed night through Sat. Active weather is expected across the Bahamas and adjacent Atlantic to 70W Wed though Fri.