Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Sat Oct 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0945 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... High surf and rip currents are possible along the beaches of the Atlantic Ocean coast during this weekend. Hurricane Epsilon is centered near 36.9N 62.0W at 24/0900 UTC or 310 nm NNE of Bermuda moving NNE at 10 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 972 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 80 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated convection is located 180 nm from the center in the SW semicircle and 400 nm N quadrant. Also, a band of showers and thunderstorms extends from 38N54W to 28N60W, along a trough associated near Epsilon. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPAT2.shtml; and the Forecast/Advisory, at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMAT2.shtml, for more details. A 1006 mb low pressure center is just south of the Cayman Islands in the northwest Caribbean near 19N82W. A broad area of numerous moderate to scattered strong convection is noted from 13N to 24N between 73W and 87W, including portions of the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, Haiti, and Honduras. This activity is getting more organized and environmental conditions are favorable for a tropical depression to form this weekend as the low moves slowly north toward western Cuba. The low will then move slowly across the SE Gulf of Mexico early next week. There is a high chance of tropical formation in the next 48 hours. Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and South Florida should monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, Cuba, South Florida, the Florida Keys, and the NW Bahamas through early next week. Please refer to the latest NHC Graphical Tropical Weather Outlook, https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/gtwo.php?basin=atlc&fdays=2, for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 31W from 13N southward, moving westward at 10 knots. Scattered moderate convection has developed this morning in association with this wave from 02N to 13N between 20W and 35W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 54W, from 13N southward, moving westward at 10 knots. Convection previously associated with this tropical wave has diminished. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 67W, from 19N southward, moving westward 10 to 15 knots. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 15N between 65W and 68W. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The ITCZ extends from the coastal plains of Senegal near 14N17W, to 09N27W, and from 02N to 04N between 31W and 50W. Convection near the ITCZ is associated with the tropical wave described above. GULF OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features above for information on the low pressure in the Caribbean that is forecast to move into the Gulf of Mexico early next week. A 1011 mb low pressure is weakening along the west coast of the Yucatan Peninsula near 19N91W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is occurring from 18N to 21N between 90W and 92W. A cold front has entered the northwest Gulf and stretches from the coast of central Louisiana to Corpus Christi Texas. No precipitation is occurring with this front but fresh northerly winds are occurring behind it. Low pressure in the northwest Caribbean has a high chance of tropical formation this weekend as it approaches western Cuba. This low is forecast to move slowly northward across the southern Gulf of Mexico early next week. Interests in western Cuba, the Florida Keys, and South Florida should closely monitor the progress of this disturbance. Regardless of development, heavy rain is possible across these areas this weekend into early next week. A weak cold has moved into the Gulf early this morning. This front will stall later today then lift north as a warm front Sun. CARIBBEAN SEA... Please see the Special Features section above for information on low pressure near the Cayman Islands that is likely to develop into a tropical depression this weekend. The eastern Pacific monsoon trough extends into the southwest Caribbean along 11N from Costa Rica into northern Colombia. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection resides south of this trough. Regardless of development of the low near the Cayman Islands, heavy rainfall and gusty winds are possible over the Cayman Islands, Jamaica, and Cuba this weekend into early next week. Winds and seas will increase continue to increase east of the Windward Islands and in the E Caribbean through early next week between this low and higher pressure over the Atlantic. ATLANTIC OCEAN... Please see Special Features section above for information on swell from Hurricane Epsilon that will be impacting many Atlantic beaches this weekend. A surface trough extends from the northern coastal sections of Haiti, into the Atlantic Ocean, for about 330 nm. Precipitation: isolated to widely scattered moderate to strong covers the areas that are from 23N to 26N between 67W and 79W, covering parts of the Bahamas. Long-period northeast swell generated from Hurricane Epsilon, now well north of the area, will continue to impact the waters north and northeast of the Bahamas into Sun. Low pressure currently in the northwest Caribbean is likely to develop into a tropical depression as it moves into the southeast Gulf of Mexico by early next week. Heavy rain and gusty winds from this system may impact South Florida and the northwest Bahamas into early next week.