Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0015 UTC Sat Jul 19 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of America, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2210 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is in the E Atlantic near 31W from 05N to 17N, and moving west at 10 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N-10N between 29W-38W. A tropical wave is in the W Caribbean with axis near 83W from 20N southward, moving west at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted over the offshore waters of Honduras, Nicaragua and Costa Rica. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic near 20N16W to 09N19W to 08N37W. The ITCZ continues westward from 08N37W to 07N58W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N-12N between 16W-24W, and from 04N to 09N between 44W and 61W. ...GULF OF AMERICA... A weak ridge of high pressure extends across the N Gulf, promoting moderate or weaker winds with seas 1-4 ft over the Gulf, except for fresh to locally strong NNE winds off the Yucatan Peninsula enhanced by a surface trough inland. Isolated moderate convection is occurring north of 23N between 85W-95W. For the forecast, relatively weak high pressure will prevail across the basin through the forecast period producing gentle to moderate winds with slight to moderate seas. Fresh to strong NE to E winds will pulse along the Yucatan Peninsula each afternoon and evening through early next week as a trough develops inland daily and shifts westward over the Bay of Campeche at night. ...CARIBBEAN SEA... A tight pressure gradient between the Bermuda High north of the region to a 1006 mb Colombia Low is forcing fresh to near gale NE to E trades and 8-11 ft seas over the central and SW Caribbean. Elsewhere, the trades are moderate to fresh with seas 3-7 ft, except over the NW Caribbean N of 18N where trades are moderate or weaker. For convection information see the tropical waves section above. For the forecast, the pressure gradient between high pressure locate N of area and the Colombian low will support fresh to strong winds over the south-central Caribbean through early next week. Near gale force winds and rough seas are expected offshore of northern Colombia through tonight. Fresh to locally strong NE winds and moderate to rough seas will prevail in the Windward Passage through Sat night. At the same time, expect fresh E winds in the Gulf of Honduras. Winds will diminish slightly Sun into next week as high pressure weakens over the western Atlantic. ...ATLANTIC OCEAN... Ridging extends across the subtropical N Atlantic from a 1029 mb Azores High near 35N37W to a 1024 mb Bermuda High near 29N70W to 30N81W along coastal Florida. The weak pressure gradient from the ridge to lower pressure over the ITCZ/monsoon trough is forcing generally gentle to moderate trades. The exceptions are the fresh to strong E trades just north of Hispaniola and E Cuba and fresh to strong NE winds between the NW coast of Africa and the Canary Islands. Seas are 3-7 ft over forecast waters, except to 9 ft over the Canary Islands. For the forecast west of 55W, a ridge will dominate the weather pattern across the forecast region through early next week. A gentle to moderate anticyclonic flow will prevail along with moderate seas. Fresh to locally strong winds and moderate seas are expected north of Hispaniola to about 22N, including approaches to the Windward Passage, through Sat night. Winds will diminish slightly Sun into next week as high pressure weakens over the western Atlantic.