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Tropical Weather Discussion


Issued Active alert

Start Time

Sun 12/08/2019 12:08 AM EST

End Time

Sun 12/22/2019 12:08 AM EST



Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1208 AM EST Sun Dec 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 32N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0450 UTC. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough passes through the coastal areas of Liberia near 05N10W to 03N21W. The ITCZ continues from 03N21W to 02N36W to the coast of Brazil near 01S47W. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 02N-07N between 18W-25W. GULF OF MEXICO... A 1019 mb low is located over the eastern Gulf near 28N86W. The dissipating cold front that extended southward and southwestward from this low at 08/0000 UTC has been changed to a surface trough as of 08/0300 UTC. This surface trough extends from the low to 25N87W to the Yucatan Peninsula near 20N88W. A stationary front extends east-northeastward from the low to Cedar Key Florida to Daytona Beach Florida. Another surface trough extends northward from the low to the western Florida Panhandle near 31N86W. Isolated showers are near the troughs, low and front. Moderate NE winds are to the west of the low, over the north-central Gulf. Benign marine conditions will prevail through the remainder of this weekend. A strong cold front will push into the NW Gulf on Tue morning, then extend from the Florida peninsula into the Bay of Campeche by Wed afternoon. Minimal gale force N winds are possible west of the front along the coast of Mexico Tue night and Wed morning. CARIBBEAN SEA... Ridging at 500-mb prevails across much of the Caribbean. Upper- level divergence that extends northward from the east Pacific monsoon trough is enhancing scattered moderate convection in the SW Caribbean south of 15N between 81W-84W. Isolated showers and tstorms are also south of 10N between 75W-81W. Isolated showers and tstorms are also seen near and over Hispaniola, enhanced by moisture from the tail end of a stationary front that ends over the Atlantic near 21N67W. The latest ASCAT pass shows fresh trades in the south-central Caribbean off the coast of Colombia. Fresh N-NE winds are seen off the east coast of Nicaragua and eastern Honduras, with similar winds also seen in the Windward Passage. A weak Bermuda High to the north of the area will promote generally moderate to fresh trade winds until early Mon. As a stronger Bermuda High builds in Mon through Wed, winds and seas will increase over the central and eastern Caribbean. ATLANTIC OCEAN... As of 08/0300 UTC, a stationary front is over the western Atlantic from 31N71W to 30N78W to Daytona Beach Florida. Isolated showers are near the front. A 1019 mb low is near 28N73W with a surface trough extending southward from the low to 23N72W. Isolated showers are east of the trough axis between 69W-71W. A stationary front extends from 32N51W to 29N55W to 27N60W to 21N67W. Scattered to numerous moderate convection is within 120 nm NW and within 90 nm SE of the stationary front, east of 61W and north of 26N. The remainder of the eastern Atlantic is under surface high pressure ridging, anchored by a 1034 mb high near 36N26W. A strong Bermuda High will build southward across the central Atlantic northeast of the Bahamas Sun and Mon. The resultant tight pressure gradient will bring increasing winds and building seas over northern waters. A strong cold front is forecast to move off the southeast U.S. coast on Wed.