Tropical Weather Discussion

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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1205 UTC Thu May 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for North America, Central America Gulf of Mexico, Caribbean Sea, northern sections of South America, and Atlantic Ocean to the African coast from the Equator to 31N. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0955 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 15W, south of 13N and moving westward at 10-15 kt. Interaction between the wave and the monsoon trough results in scattered moderate to isolated strong convection from 02N to 11N and E of 19W. An Atlantic Ocean tropical wave is along 39W, south of 10N and moving westward at 10-15 kt. No deep convection is associated with this feature. A Caribbean Sea tropical wave is along 79W, south of 17N and moving westward near 10 kt. Interaction between the wave and the East Pacific monsoon trough allows for a few showers near the trough axis in the Caribbean Sea and strong thunderstorms over the Gulf of Panama on the Pacific side. ...MONSOON TROUGH/ITCZ... The monsoon trough enters the Atlantic through the coast of Guinea-Bissau near 12N16W and continues to 03N31W. The ITCZ extends from 03N31W to 01N38W and then from 01N41W to 00N50W. Scattered moderate to isolated strong convection is observed S of 05N and between 19W and 28W. Similar convection is noted S of 04N and W of 40W. GULF OF MEXICO... A weak cold front extends from 30N92W in southern Louisiana to 24N97W in Tamaulipas, Mexico. A few showers and isolated thunderstorms are noted ahead of the frontal boundary in the northern and NE Gulf, mainly N of 26N. A dry environment dominates the NW Gulf behind the frontal boundary. Another area of unstable weather is found in the Bay of Campeche due a large area of showers and thunderstorms affecting SE Mexico and Guatemala, extending into the southern Bay of Campeche. Fresh to locally strong winds are found ahead of the cold front, especially in the central and eastern Gulf, while gentle to moderate flow is present behind the front. A scatterometer satellite pass from a few hours ago also captured fresh to strong winds in association with the activity in the Bay of Campeche, which is expected to diminish in the next few hours. Seas of 4-7 ft are occurring over most of the Gulf, except for 2-4 ft in the Bay of Campeche. For the forecast, the aforementioned cold front will continue pushing eastward through the northern basin over the next few days, weakening as it reaches the NE Gulf by Friday. Showers and thunderstorms are expected to persist ahead of the front through this time. By the weekend, high pressure will settle over the basin, allowing winds to diminish. CARIBBEAN SEA... The moderate pressure gradient between the subtropical ridge north of the Caribbean Sea and lower pressures in northern South America and the tropical East Pacific result in moderate to locally strong trades across most of the Caribbean Sea. Satellite- derived wind data from a few hours ago captured a large area of fresh to locally strong winds in the central Caribbean Sea, with the strongest winds occurring offshore Venezuela and Colombia. Fresh to locally strong trades are also pulsing in the Bay of Campeche. Seas of 5-8 ft are prevalent in the central Caribbean Sea and Gulf of Honduras, while 3-5 ft are noted elsewhere in the basin. In the forecast, the subtropical ridge north of the area will support moderate to fresh trades across most of the Caribbean during the next few days. Winds will pulse to strong north of Honduras tonight. Fresh to strong winds will also pulse off Colombia and Venezuela at night through the weekend and into early next week ATLANTIC OCEAN... High pressure dominates most of the tropical Atlantic, supporting fairly tranquil weather conditions. A surface trough enters the basin near 31N38W and continues southwestward to 22N50W. A few weak showers are seen near the trough axis. Moderate to locally fresh southerly flow is present N of 29N and between 33W and 42W. Elsewhere, moderate to locally fresh E-SE winds are found north of Hispaniola, across the Bahamas and offshore NE Florida. Similar winds are also affecting the waters S of 15N and between 45W and the Lesser Antilles. Seas across the basin are 3-6 ft. For the forecast W of 55W, the subtropical ridge over the western Atlantic will shift eastward this morning through Fri night ahead of a cold front that will move across the southeastern U.S. The associated pressure gradient will allow for gentle to moderate winds to prevail across most of the region through the period. Winds off the NE Florida coast will become moderate to locally strong ahead of the cold front tonight into Fri night. Winds will also pulse moderate to fresh over northern Hispaniola and the Bahamas.