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Tropical Weather Discussion


Issued Active alert

Start Time

Fri 09/30/2022 06:05 PM EDT

End Time

Sat 10/01/2022 12:05 AM EDT



Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Fri Sep 30 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2150 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Storm Orlene is centered near 16.6N 107.1W at 30/2100 UTC moving NNW at 4 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 994 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 55 kt with gusts to 65 kt. Numerous moderate to isolated strong convection from 13N to 19N between 104W and 111W. A turn toward the north is expected by tonight along with a slight increase in forward speed. Orlene is then forecast to move toward the north or north-northeast on Saturday and Saturday night. Steady to rapid strengthening is expected through Saturday night, and Orlene is forecast to become a hurricane tonight or Saturday. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast issued by the National Hurricane Center at website and the latest NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 10N96W then resumes from 14N112W to 12N132W to 09N140W. Numerous moderate isolated strong N of 04N E of 90W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 15N between 90W and 104W, from 11N to 17N between 112W and 120W, and from 07N to 17N W of 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please read the Special Features above for details on Tropical Storm Orlene. Elsewhere, gentle to locally moderate winds prevail over the open waters off Mexico, with light to gentle winds over the Gulf of California. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 3 ft or less in the Gulf of California. In the Gulf of Tehuantepec, a gap wind event with N to NE winds to near gale force prevails to 10N with seas to to 9 ft. For the forecast, other than Tropical Storm Orlene, winds in the region of Tehuantepec will diminish to fresh to strong on Sat and will continue through Tue. Wind in that region will further diminish to moderate to fresh speeds Tue night and continue through mid-week. Elsewhere, mainly gentle to moderate winds will dominate through Mon and diminish to light to gentle Mon night into Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds prevail south of the monsoon trough with light to gentle winds north of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range. For the forecast, winds south of the monsoon trough will increase to moderate to fresh speeds later today and diminish back to moderate speeds on Sat. These winds will further diminish to light to gentle on Monday, continuing through Tue. Otherwise, seas offshore Guatemala due to an ongoing gap wind event across the Tehuantepec region will subside tonight. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging prevails N of 19N and W of 120W. Recent scatterometer data show light to gentle variable winds N of 20N and gentle to moderate NE to E winds between the monsoon trough/ITCZ and 20N. Gentle to locally moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range over much of the discussion waters. For the forecast, high pressure will prevail across the northern waters with little change to the expected conditions over the next couple of days.