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Tropical Center

Tropical Weather Discussion


Issued Active alert

Start Time

Tue 11/13/2018 07:45 PM EST

End Time

Tue 11/27/2018 07:45 PM EST



Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 045 UTC Wed Nov 14 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0245 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Storm Warning: Strong high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico will generate storm force winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec through late Wed night. Seas within and downstream of the Gulf of Tehuantepec will build to between 13 and 22 ft late tonight through Thu night. Gale force winds will follow until early Sat morning, then again Sun and Sun night. A large swath of high seas from this event will propagate south and southwest of the Gulf of Tehuantepec region, with the leading edge of the 8 ft seas forecast to reach near 108W by Fri. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough axis extends from 10N73W to 09N84W to 07N90W to low pres 1009 mb near 07N95W to 09N112W. The ITCZ axis continues from 09N112W to 09N123W, then resumes from 08N128W to beyond 07N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is seen from 06N to 10N E of 84W, from 06N to 09N between 130W and 140W and from 07N to 10N between 90W and 98W. Scattered moderate from 07N to 10N between 108W and 116W. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for the Gulf of Tehuantepec storm event. The gale force winds west of northern Baja California wound down earlier this evening. However, strong high pressure over the SW United States and Mexico will support strong N winds over the Gulf of California through Wed morning. The winds funneling through the mountain passages over Baja California Norte did produce minimal gale force NE winds over the waters within 30 nm of the Baja Peninsula from 28N to 29.5N E of 115W earlier this evening. Strong to near gale force NE winds and seas of 8 to 10 ft will continue across the offshore forecast waters west of Baja California, mainly N of Cabo San Lazaro through Wed morning. Seas W of Baja California Norte will subside below 8 ft by Wed evening. Gulf of California: The pressure gradient associated with strong high pressure over the Great Basin of the United States is bringing strong NW to N winds over the northern and central Gulf. Seas up to 8 ft are present N of 30N. Winds and seas will start to subside Wed morning as the high slides SE and weakens. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Moderate to fresh winds over the Gulf of Papagayo will increase to between fresh and strong by late Wed night as a tight pressure gradient develops over northern Central America behind a strong cold front that will move across the northwestern Caribbean Sea. Seas are forecast to build to 9 ft by Thu morning. This gap wind event will expand and continue through the upcoming weekend. A strong Tehunatepec gap wind event west of the area is forecast to spread strong to near gale force winds and building seas of 12 to 18 ft into the Guatemala and El Salvador offshore waters, mainly to the west of 92W, tonight through Thu morning. Otherwise, light to gentle winds are forecast N of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate SW winds S of the trough for the next several days. Cross-equatorial long period SW swell will maintain seas around 6-7 ft from Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands to near the Azuero Peninsula through Wed. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered W of California near 35N129W ridges SE to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the high and low pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ will support fresh to locally strong trades just north of the ITCZ to the W of 125W. Seas of 8 to 10 ft will be associated with these winds. These conditions are forecast to last through Thu, while they continue shifting westward and decrease in coverage. NW swell associated with and dissipating stationary front is forecast late tonight and early Wed, with seas of 8-10 ft covering much of the waters north of 07N and west of 130W by early Thu as the swell merges with waves generated by the area of fresh to strong trades. Model guidance depicts the next cold front approaching the far NW corner of the area on Fri. Cross equatorial SW swell of 7 to 9 ft will propagate across the waters south of 06N between 100W and 116W tonight, then this area of seas will retreat to south of 01N between 113W and 121W by Wed night.