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Tropical Weather Discussion


Issued Active alert

Start Time

Sat 12/07/2019 07:41 PM EST

End Time

Sat 12/21/2019 07:41 PM EST



Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 041 UTC Sun Dec 8 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0230 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A cold front extending across the W Gulf of Mexico to south of Tampico Mexico will dissipate tonight. High pressure is currently building S over eastern Mexico into the Tehuantepec region. The enhanced N to S pressure gradient is supporting minimal gale force N to NE gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec, which will continue until Sun. Seas of 13 ft will subside Sun as the pressure gradient weakens and wind speeds diminish to fresh to strong speeds. Looking ahead, another gale force gap wind event could affect the Gulf of Tehuantepec Wed evening as a stronger cold front crosses the Gulf of Mexico. See latest NWS High Seas Forecast issued by National Hurricane Center under AWIPS/WMO headers HSFEP2/FZPN03 KNHC or at website for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 08N78W to 09N84W to 06N94W to 07N100W. The ITCZ continues from 07N100W to 07N125W to 05N140W. Isolated moderate convection is present within 180 nm either side of the monsoon trough. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gentle winds prevail across most of the offshore waters, as weak high pressure resides over the waters W of Baja to around 125W. Elsewhere across the Mexican offshore waters, variable and gentle winds prevail, except for increasing northerly gap winds over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Please see the Special Features section above for more details on the Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The latest GOES-16 satellite imagery shows isolated moderate convection along the monsoon trough from S of the Gulf of Tehuantepec to off the coast of Colombia. Strong NE to E winds will pulse to around 25 kt each night across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through Tue, with seas peaking between 8 and 9 ft downstream of the Gulf each morning. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW monsoon flow will persist across the offshore waters of Costa Rica, Panama, Colombia, and Ecuador during the next several days. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A trough extends from 29N122W to 16N128W. Large NW swell associated with an old front is spreading across the region, as 12 ft seas dominate the NW waters NW. Recent altimeter data suggests seas as high as 12 ft near 30N135W. Large NW swell will continue propagating SE through the weekend. Seas will subside Sun and Mon. Looking ahead, another cold front will approach the NW portion of the discussion area Mon and introduce new NW swell into the NW waters through the middle of next week.