Tropical Weather Discussion
Status
Issued Active alertStart Time
Mon 02/17/2025 11:05 PM ESTEnd Time
Tue 02/18/2025 05:05 AM ESTImpacts
Informational
Full Alert Message
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Tue Feb 18 2025 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURE... Gulf of Tehuantepec Gale Warning: A robust ridge north of the area continues to support gap winds to gale force across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this evening. Early this afternoon scatterometer satellite pass captured near gale-force northerly winds. These winds are producing rough seas. Winds and seas will diminish tonight as the high pressure weakens and shifts eastward. For details, please refer to the latest NWS High Seas and Offshore Waters Forecasts issued by the National Hurricane Center at the websites: https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/marine/offshores.php for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from eastern Panama near 07.5N78W to 06N112W and to 04N120W. The ITCZ stretches from 04N120W to 05N140W and beyond. Scattered moderate convection is present from 04N to 13N between 101W and 117W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section concerning the gale warning in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. The subtropical ridge located well west of Baja California Norte sustains mainly moderate NW to N winds and moderate seas north of Punta Eugenia. In the remainder of the offshore waters of Baja California, light to gentle winds and moderate seas are prevalent. Outside of the Gulf of Tehuantepec, light to gentle winds and slight to moderate seas prevail in the rest of the offshore waters of Mexico and the Gulf of California. For the forecast, Gale force northerly winds and rough seas will continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through this evening due to strong high pressure to the north. These winds and seas will diminish tonight. Farther north, a large NW swell is entering the northern offshore waters and forecast to spread southeastward through Wed off Baja California, but staying mainly north of Cabo San Lazaro. Seas will peak around 11 ft in the far NW corner Tuesday. Seas will diminish midweek, but another round of large NW swell will reach the area Thu. Looking ahead, expect another pulse of gap winds to gale force across Tehuantepec Wed late night through Fri morning. Seas will peak around 13 ft Thu night into Fri morning. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... A strong ridge over the central United States continues to support moderate to locally fresh NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo, spreading downstream to 90W. Seas in these waters are 4-6 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds and slight to moderate seas are prevalent. For the forecast, high pressure north of the area will maintain moderate to fresh NE-E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo through the forecast period, pulsing to strong spreads mainly at night and morning hours. Moderate seas may accompany these winds. Winds will fresh up at night late this week into the weekend in the Gulf of Panama. Otherwise, gentle to moderate winds and slight to moderate seas will prevail across the waters offshore of Central and South America into early next week. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1023 mb high pressure system centered near 34N130W supports mainly moderate NE-E winds north of the ITCZ and west of 120W. Seas in these waters are 6-10 ft, with the highest seas occurring in northern waters associated with a large NW swell. Elsewhere, gentle or weaker winds and moderate seas prevail. For the forecast, large NW swell will continue to spread eastward over the waters north of 20N during the next couple of days and gradually decay. A cold front will move east of 140W by Tue night, then into southern California and northern Baja California Norte by mid week, leaving a trailing stationary front along roughly 27N. Another round of NW swell will follow this front across waters west of 130W. In addition, high pressure building in the wake of the front will support a broad area of fresh trade winds from 05N to 23N west of 125W. The NW swell will mix with the shorter period NE seas associated with the trade wind flow. Gentle breezes and moderate seas will continue elsewhere.