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Tropical Weather Discussion


Issued Active alert

Start Time

Mon 10/25/2021 12:05 PM EDT

End Time

Mon 10/25/2021 06:05 PM EDT



Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Mon Oct 25 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1510 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Rick is centered inland near 18.6N 102.2W at 25/1500 UTC moving N at 8 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 985 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 70 kt with gusts to 85 kt. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted within 90 nm of the center of the hurricane, N of 16.5N between 101W and 103W. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 80 mph (130 km/h) with higher gusts. Rapid weakening is expected today while Rick continues to move over land, and Rick is forecast to dissipate over the mountainous terrain of southern Mexico tonight or Tuesday. A storm surge is producing significant coastal flooding in areas of onshore winds in southern Mexico. Near the coast, the surge is accompanied by large and destructive waves. Swells generated by Rick will affect portions of the southwestern coast of Mexico through early Tuesday. These swells are likely to cause life- threatening surf and rip current conditions. Please consult products from your local weather office. Rick is expected to produce 5 to 10 inches of rain with isolated storm total amounts of 20 inches across sections of the Mexican states of Guerrero and Michoacan through Tuesday. This heavy rainfall will likely produce flash flooding and mudslides. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at and Forecast/ Advisory at for more details. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 91W N of 02N into Guatemala, moving W at around 10 kt. No significant convection is evident near the wave axis. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from the coast of Costa Rica near 09N84W to 13N95W. The monsoon trough continues southwest of Hurricane Rick near 13N106W to a 1011 mb low near 11N122W to another 1011 mb low near 10N131W to a third 1011 mb low near 10N138W to 10N140W. In addition to the convection associated with Hurricane Rick described in the Special Features section, scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 13N between 103W to 115W and from 08N to 13N between 119W to 140W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on Hurricane Rick. Overnight scatterometer satellite data indicates gentle to moderate winds prevail across Mexican offshore waters, outside the waters off Michoacan and western Guerrero. NW swell is subsiding off Baja California, although 8 to 9 ft seas are still evident south of Punta Eugenia reaching as far south as Socorro Island. The NW swell is mixing with shorter- period swell generated by Rick over Mexican offshore waters south of Cabo Corrientes. For the forecast, new NW swell will move into areas offshore Baja California Norte today, and spread southward to Socorro Island Tue. Peak swell Tue and Tue night may reach 15 ft off Baja California, before decaying through Thu. Strong W gap winds are forecast tonight in the northern Gulf of California, ahead of a cold front. Behind the front, fresh to locally strong winds may develop Tue and Tue night offshore Baja California Norte. Looking ahead, a cold front moving through the western Gulf of Mexico will bring fresh to strong gap winds to the Gulf of Tehuantepec by Thu night and continue into late week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate S to SW winds are occurring S of the monsoon trough with mainly light and variable winds to the north. Seas are 4 to 6 ft, except 5 to 7 ft offshore Ecuador. Scattered moderate convection is noted near and south of the Gulf of Panama from 03N to 08N and E of 80W. Scattered thunderstorms are also noted in the offshore waters of Nicaragua and Costa Rica. Mainly gentle to moderate SW winds persist over the Central American offshore waters through Fri. Seas will range from 4 to 7 ft in southerly swell. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A large area of long period NW swell is moving through the region, with seas of 8 to 10 ft most areas N of 10N. The swell subside below 8 ft through tonight. Another reinforcing group of large NW swell is entering the NW basin, and seas will rise to over 12 ft N of 15N and W of 120W through Tue night.