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Tropical Weather Discussion


Issued Active alert

Start Time

Wed 04/14/2021 12:05 PM EDT

End Time

Wed 04/14/2021 06:05 PM EDT



Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1605 UTC Wed Apr 14 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from a 1010 mb low pressure located over northern Colombia near 08N75W to 06N80W to 08N93W to 07N98W. The ITCZ continues from 07N98W to 08N120W to beyond 03N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 04N to 07N between 77W and 95W, including the coast of Colombia. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection can be found from 05N to 08N between 89W and 105W, from 03N to 08N between 110W and 120W, and within about 60 nm on either side of the ITCZ between 120W and 137W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... A ridge extends across the waters west of Baja California to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between the ridge and a trough over the Gulf of California is supporting moderate northerly winds west of the Baja California peninsula. Gentle to moderate northwest to west winds prevail elsewhere across the open offshore waters south of Baja. Mainly light to gentle winds will prevail across the Gulf of California over the next several days, with the exception of gentle to moderate southerly winds over the northern part of the Gulf today and tonight. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range west of Baja California Norte, 5-7 ft off Baja California Sur, 4-6 ft over the remainder of the open waters off Mexico, and 3-4 ft over the northern Gulf of California. Moderate NW winds will prevail west of Baja California Norte through the week, becoming fresh near the coast each late afternoon, as the ridge persists. NW swell off Baja California Norte will slowly subside to 5-6 ft by Thu night. Gentle to moderate winds are expected elsewhere through late Thu. Winds will increase slightly Fri and Sat as the high pressure shifts southward to near 31N. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail across the forecast area, except for fresh to locally strong offshore gaps winds across the Papagayo region. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range. Little change in wind conditions are expected through through Fri. Moderate SW swell moving into the regional waters will dominate the offshore waters through Fri. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure across the NE Pacific extends southward along 135W into the northern forecast waters and then southeastward to near the Revillagigedo Islands. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ is supporting moderate NE-E winds north of the ITCZ to 20N and west of 120W. Gentle to moderate winds prevail elsewhere. Seas are in the 8-9 ft range over the waters N of 28N between 120W and 127W, and 7-8 ft elsewhere N of 20N. Seas in the 6-7 ft range prevail across the tradewind belt south of 15N. No significant change is expected through early Thu. High pressure will sink southward to along 31N late Thu through Fri. This will tighten the pressure gradient and freshen winds north of the ITCZ Fri into the weekend. Northerly swell will gradually subside to less than 8 ft across the NE waters waters later today.