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Tropical Center

Tropical Weather Discussion

Status

Issued Active alert

Start Time

Thu 05/26/2022 06:05 AM EDT

End Time

Thu 05/26/2022 12:05 PM EDT

Impacts

Informational

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Thu May 26 2022 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0830 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A surface trough located a few hundred miles south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec continues to produce a large area of cloudiness and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions are forecast to be conducive for gradual development, and a tropical depression is likely to form late this week or this weekend while the system moves west-northwestward or northwestward at 5 to 10 kt. Interests in southern Mexico should monitor the progress of this system. There is a medium probability of this disturbance developing into a tropical cyclone in the next 48 hours and a high probability of development in the next 5 days. This area of low pressure will bring an increase in winds and seas to southern Mexico starting late this week into the weekend. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N84W to 09N130W. The ITCZ continues from 09N130W to 06N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 12N and E of 120W, and from 08N to 10N between 129W and 134W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on the potential for the first tropical cyclone of the 2022 EPAC season. Light to gentle winds prevail across the discussion waters, except for a small area of moderate winds noted offshore of Los Cabos region. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range over the open waters off Mexico, and 1-3 ft over the Gulf of California. Aside from the potential tropical cyclone, light to gentle winds west of the Baja California peninsula will increase toward the weekend. Gentle to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through the remainder of the week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the forecast waters. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range in SW swell. For the forecast, developing low pressure south of the Gulf of Tehuantepec could result in an increase in winds and seas over the offshore waters of Guatemala and El Salvador late this week into the weekend. Please see above for more information on the low pressure. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate winds will continue across the forecast waters through early next week. SW swell will gradually decrease through today. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A high pressure ridge extends across the waters north of 13N and west of 110W. The pressure gradient between this area and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting gentle to moderate winds north of the monsoon trough and west of 125W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere north of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are noted south of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-7 ft range across the area. There are a couple of disturbances within the monsoon trough that are being monitored for tropical cyclone potential, one south of Tehuantepec is discussed in the section above. The other disturbance is near 110W. This perturbation has a low probability for tropical cyclone development. For the forecast, winds and seas will decrease through the end of the week. High pressure will build again this weekend bringing an increase in winds.