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Tropical Weather Discussion

Status

Issued Active alert

Start Time

Sat 08/15/2020 12:05 AM EDT

End Time

Sat 08/29/2020 12:05 AM EDT

Impacts

Informational

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 0405 UTC Sat Aug 15 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0000 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0300 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Tropical Depression Ten-E centered near 13.4N 133.1W at 15/0300 UTC moving W at 3 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 1004 mb. Maximum sustained winds are 30 kt with gusts to 40 kt. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm SW quadrant. Maximum seas are 12 ft. Please read the latest NHC Public Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCPEP5.shtml and Forecast/ Advisory at https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIATCMEP5.shtml for more details. A tropical wave is along 83.5W across Costa Rica. An area of low pressure is expected to form in association with this wave and the monsoon trough in the next day or two W of Central America. Conditions are conducive for development, and a tropical depression or storm is likely to form this weekend or early next week while the system moves west-northwestward south of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Regardless of development, heavy rainfall is possible across Central America this weekend. An area of low pressure near 14N117W is associated with a nearby tropical wave. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted within 150 nm NW and 60 nm SE semicircles. A large area of strong SW winds was noted in recent scatterometer data south and southeast of this low. Environmental conditions are expected to be favorable for the development of this system and there is a high probability it will become a tropical depression while it moves slowly north-northwestward during the next few days. An area of low pressure is centered SW of the southern tip of Baja California near 21N111W. Scattered moderate convection is noted within 180 nm SE quadrant. While current environmental conditions are somewhat favorable, the low will reach cooler waters on Saturday, and the chances of the system becoming a tropical depression appear to be decreasing. ...TROPICAL WAVES... Please the Special Features section above for more information on the tropical wave near 81W/82W. A tropical wave axis is near 99W N of 01N into southern Mexico, moving W at 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 07N to 12N between 97W and 99W. A tropical wave axis is near 117W south of 18N, moving W at 10 kt. 1007 mb low pressure is analyzed near 14N117W. Please see the Special Features section for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 09N94W to 11N105W to low pressure near 21N111W to low pressure near 14N117W to 10N125W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection is noted from 05N to 13N between 80W and 100W, and from 12N to 19N between 110W and 123W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see Special Features for details on the high chance of tropical cyclone formation associated with low pressure near the Revillagigedo Islands. Recent scatterometer data shows moderate SE flow across the Gulf of California, and a partial pass indicates fresh to strong winds in the E semicircle of low pressure near 21N111W. The low north of the Revillagigedo Islands will bring strong winds and building seas to the Baja California Sur offshore waters tonight and Sat. Fresh to occasionally strong gap winds will pulse across the Gulf of Tehuantepec this weekend. A low pressure area is expected to form west of Central America this weekend. This low is expected to develop into a tropical cyclone by early next week as it moves W-NW offshore of the southwestern coast of Mexico. Expect strong winds and building seas over the southern Mexico offshore waters early next week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for information about the potential for tropical cyclone formation associated with low pressure that is expected to form west of Central America this weekend. This system will bring strong winds and large seas to the offshore waters of Guatemala, El Salvador, and Nicaragua this weekend. Winds and seas will subside early next week as the system moves W-NW offshore of southern Mexico. Recent scatterometer data depicts fresh to strong S to SW flow offshore of Costa Rica and Panama. Seas are generally 6-8 ft in enhanced monsoonal flow. Fresh winds will pulse overnight across the Gulf of Papagayo region. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see the Special Features section for information about Tropical Depression Ten-E, as well as the potential for tropical cyclone development elsewhere across the eastern North Pacific basin. Gentle to moderate NE winds prevail across the waters N of 15N and W of 120W. Besides the areas described in the Special Features section above, generally moderate to fresh SW monsoon flow prevails south of the monsoon trough.