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Tropical Weather Discussion


Issued Active alert

Start Time

Sat 10/24/2020 06:05 AM EDT

End Time

Sat 11/07/2020 05:05 AM EST



Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Oct 24 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave axis is along 120W/121W from 03N to 17N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Scattered showers are within 90 nm either side of the wave from 15N to 17N. A tropical wave axis is along 136W/137W from 02N to 16N, moving westward at 10 to 15 kt. Isolated showers are within 60 nm of the wave axis from 08N to 13N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N86W to 13N97W to 13N120W to 12N130W, where scatterometer data indicates that it transitions to the ITCZ. The ITCZ extends from 12N130W to beyond 12N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 07N to 10N between 84W and 90W, and from 08N to 15N between 93W and 128W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Latest scatterometer data shows gentle northwest to north winds offshore Baja California, while gentle north to northeast winds are offshore mainland Mexico. Seas are in the 4-6 ft range, except for 6-8 ft seas from north swell are present west of Baja California Norte. Light north winds are over the Gulf of Tehunatepec, but are expected to quickly become north at 20-30 kt this morning. Winds will remain light to gentle west of Mexico for the next few days, with little change in seas. The swell west of Baja California Norte will gradually subside through Sun as the swell group shifts westward away from the offshore waters. A strong cold front will move across northern Mexico and the Gulf of California Sun night into Mon, and bring strong westerly gap winds ahead of the front across north and central portions of the Gulf Sun afternoon through Mon, becoming strong northerly winds behind the front, which will spread southward across the Gulf Mon night and Tue. Gale force winds are possible in the northern Gulf of California Mon afternoon through Mon night. Seas will build over the northern Gulf of California late Sun to possibly 13 ft Mon night before subsiding to around 7 ft Tue. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Mainly moderate south to southwest winds will continue over the southern waters through Mon, then increase late Mon. Seas south of Costa Rica and Panama are 5-7 ft due in south to southwest swell.Gentle to moderate onshore flow is expected west of Central America through Sun night, becoming light and variable on Mon. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Strong high pressure centered well north of the region near 40N140W extends a broad ridge southward into the discussion area. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure associated to the monsoon trough region is allowing for moderate to fresh trades over an area from 15N to 21N between 124W and 132W, and from 13N to 17N between 132W and 140W. Expect little change in these conditions through the weekend.