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Tropical Weather Discussion


Issued Active alert

Start Time

Wed 06/03/2020 06:05 AM EDT

End Time

Wed 06/17/2020 06:05 AM EDT



Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Wed Jun 3 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... ...Heavy rainfall across Central America and Southern Mexico... A Central American Gyre remains centered over southern Mexico and northern Central America, with the broad cyclonic circulation around the gyre encompassing the discussion waters N of 10N and E of 100W, and extending across adjacent portions of the southern Gulf of Mexico and the western Caribbean Sea. Scattered to locally numerous moderate to strong convection is noted over much of these waters. Elsewhere clusters of strong thunderstorms continue to impact portions of southern Mexico from the eastern Bay of Campeche to northern Guatemala, as well as the Gulf of Tehuantepec and Pacific coastal sections of Chiapas. TS Cristobal, over the SW Gulf of Mexico, is embedded within the larger circulation of the gyre. Cristobal will act to focus additional heavy rainfall over portions of southern Mexico and Guatemala during the next few days. Winds flowing around the larger Central American Gyre will continue to advect abundant moisture cyclonically across portions of Central America and southeastern Mexico for the next few days. This setup will maintain a very dangerous situation for these areas. This large quasi-stationary circulation has brought heavy rainfall and severe flooding to portions of Central America and southern Mexico during the past several days, and deadly flooding has already occurred in portions of Guatemala and El Salvador. Additional heavy rainfall is expected through the remainder of the week over portions of southern Mexico from the Yucatan Peninsula through Chiapas to eastern portions of Veracruz and Oaxaca. In Central America, portions of Belize, Guatemala, El Salvador and southwestern Honduras are also likely to receive additional heavy rainfall. The rains could lead to additional life-threatening flash floods and mudslides, especially in areas of mountainous terrain. Please refer to products issued by your local or national meteorological service for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 16N94W TO 12N96W to low pres near 10.5N115W TO 14N117W. The ITCZ extends from 14N117W TO 12N127W TO 13N129W TO 15N140W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is noted from 01.5N to 06.5N E of 80W, from 05.5N to 11N between 83W and 90W, from 07N to 11.5N between 90W and 110W, and from 05N to 10N W of 127W. Scattered strong convection is noted within 150 nm of the coasts between 89.5W and 96.5W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre. Gentle to moderate winds prevail across the open waters off Mexico, except for fresh NW winds along the coast of Cabo San Lucas. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range. Light to gentle winds prevail across the Gulf of California, where seas are in the 1-3 ft range across interior portions, and 4-5 ft across the mouth. The Central American Gyre will continue to produce onshore flow and very active weather across the waters of southern Mexico over the next few days. Elsewhere, high pressure will begin to build modestly over the northern waters of Baja this evening and then more significantly Fri through the weekend. Weak low press is expected to develop across the northern Gulf of California Fri which will produce strong SW winds across that area and build seas briefly to 5-8 ft. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Please see the Special Features section for more details on the Central American Gyre. Gentle to moderate onshore winds prevail across the forecast waters. Seas are in the 5-8 ft range in SW swell across the area. Clusters of strong thunderstorms have persisted across interior Colombia and along the Pacific coast overnight, and are expected to continue there and across portions of Panama throughout today. The Central American Gyre centered over the northern portion of Central America and southern Mexico is bringing active weather over the offshore waters from coastal Colombia NW to Guatemala, which will continue over the next few days. Elsewhere, long- period SW swell will continue propagating across the region through the week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... High pressure centered just N of the area near 31N140W extends south and southeastward across the waters N of 20N. Moderate to fresh N to NE winds prevail N of 09N and W of 125W. Gentle to moderate southerly winds prevail S of the monsoon trough and ITCZ. Southerly swell has propagated into the forecast waters supporting seas of 7-10 ft S of 102N between 95W and 125W. Elsewhere seas over the discussion area are in the 5-7 ft range. High pres will continue to build across the northern waters through the week and act to strengthen the tradewinds S of 20N and W of 130W over the weekend.