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Tropical Weather Discussion

Status

Issued Active alert

Start Time

Sat 07/24/2021 06:05 AM EDT

End Time

Sat 07/24/2021 12:05 PM EDT

Impacts

Informational

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sat Jul 24 2021 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0900 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... A broad 1009 mb low pressure located near 13N126.5W continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms on the north side of the low. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted from 12N to 15.5N between 125W and 133W. Latest ASCAT data shows mainly fresh winds on the north side of the low. Environmental conditions are generally conducive for additional development, and this system could become a tropical depression this weekend or early next week before it reaches cooler waters while moving westward at 10-15 kt. The disturbance has a medium chance of becoming a tropical cyclone within the next 48 hours. Fresh to strong winds and 8 to 10 ft seas are likely within 120 nm north of this low pressure area as it continues west over the next several days. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave is along 107W, from 04N to 16N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is evident from 08N to 12N between 104W and 112W. Another tropical wave is near 116.5W, from 04N to 15N, moving west at 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is seen from 08N to 14N between 112W and 122W. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 07N78W to 08N95W to 10N110W to 1009 mb low pressure near 13N127W to 11N140W. In addition to the convection listed in the Tropical Waves section, scattered strong convection is noted from 03N to 10N east of 87W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 12N to 15.5N between 125W and 133W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong northerly gap winds continue in the Gulf of Tehuantepec. This is related to high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and lower pressure south of the area, with seas estimated to be 7 to 9 ft in this area. Light to gentle breezes with 4 to 6 ft seas are evident elsewhere off southern Mexico, with a component of SW swell. Farther north, mainly moderate NW winds prevail across the waters off Baja California Norte, between weak high pressure west of the region and lower pressure across northern Mexico, along with 4 to 6 ft seas. Moderate S winds and slight seas are noted over the northern Gulf of California. For the forecast, strong N winds will continue across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region through early this morning, diminishing to fresh to strong late this morning. These winds will diminish to moderate to fresh Sun. Moderate southerly flow over the northern Gulf of California will briefly become moderate to locally fresh this evening before diminishing. Light to moderate winds will prevail elsewhere through mid week. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, and WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure over the NW Caribbean is helping to funnel fresh NE to E winds over the Papagayo region with seas 6 to 7 ft. Moderate to fresh SW to W winds prevail just south of the monsoon trough, offshore of Panama and Colombia, with seas to 7 ft. Elsewhere, moderate or weaker winds prevail, with seas of 5 to 7 ft, primarily in long period SW swell. Satellite imagery shows clusters of strong showers and thunderstorms offshore of Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica. For the forecast, high pressure over the NW Caribbean will continue to support fresh to strong NE to E winds over the Papagayo region through this morning. Fresh SW winds surging south of the monsoon trough into the waters offshore of Colombia, western Panama and Costa Rica will persist through Sun night. Moderate or weaker winds are forecast elsewhere. A moderate southerly swell will continue to impact the waters west of Ecuador through this weekend. Enhanced showers and thunderstorms will persist offshore Colombia, Panama and Costa Rica through this weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... See the Special Features section above for information on the 1009 mb low pressure near 13N126.5W. Elsewhere, fresh winds and seas of 6 to 8 ft are present from the monsoon trough to 24N between 125W and 140W. Seas of 5 to 7 ft prevail elsewhere across the open waters. The ridge will linger to the north, with moderate E trades and fairly tranquil marine conditions expected north of the convergence zone.