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Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Tue Oct 22 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Hurricane Kristy is centered near 14.7N 108.5W at 22/2100 UTC, moving west at 16 kt. Estimated minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Maximum sustained wind speed is 65 kt with gusts to 75 kt. Seas are peaking near 17 ft. Numerous moderate to strong convection is noted from 13N to 16N between 106W and 110W. Scattered moderate to strong convection is elsewhere from 10N to 17N between 105W and 112W. A well- established subtropical ridge is expected to steer the tropical cyclone westward over the next couple of days. The environment is favorable for intensification, with the current forecast calling for Kristy to reach major hurricane intensity Wednesday afternoon. Please read the latest HIGH SEAS FORECAST issued by the National Hurricane Center at website- https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/text/MIAHSFEP2.shtml and the latest Kristy NHC Forecast/Advisory and Public Advisory at www.hurricanes.gov for more details. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 11N85W to 11N100W. It resumes W of Hurricane Kristy near 11N115W to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is from 06N to 10N between 88W and 112W, and from 12N to 18N between 132W and 139W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for more on information on Hurricane Kristy. Aside from Kristy, strong to near gale winds prevail across the Tehuantepec region, where seas are in the 8-10 ft range. A weak ridge extends across the offshore forecast waters of Baja California. The pressure gradient between this ridge and a trough over Mexico is supporting gentle to moderate winds west of the Baja California peninsula and extending southward to the Revillagigedo Islands. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range over these waters. Moderate to locally fresh winds, and seas of 4-5 ft, are in the southern half of the Gulf of California. Gentle to moderate winds are over the northern Gulf, with seas in the 2-3 ft range. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, are over the remainder of the discussion waters. For the forecast, Hurricane Kristy is near 14.7N 108.5W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving west at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Kristy will move to 14.6N 111.0W Wed morning, 14.4N 114.5W Wed afternoon, 14.2N 118.0W Thu morning, 14.2N 121.0W Thu afternoon, 14.7N 123.8W Fri morning, and 15.7N 126.5W Fri afternoon. Kristy will change little in intensity as it moves to 18.7N 130.7W Sat afternoon. Strong to near gale N gap winds in the Tehuantepec will continue through the weekend, with gales possible Wed night and this weekend. Moderate to fresh NW to N winds are expected over central and southern portions of the Gulf of California through early Wed. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Light to gentle winds prevail N of the monsoon trough, with gentle to moderate winds S of the monsoon trough. Seas are in the 5-6 ft range. For the forecast, moderate NE to E winds are expected in the Gulf of Papagayo Wed through Sun night, pulsing to fresh speeds at night through Fri and strong speeds at night this weekend. Elsewhere, gentle to moderate S to SW winds will prevail south of the monsoon trough while light to gentle winds will prevail north of the monsoon trough. Mainly moderate seas in cross equatorial SW swell are expected. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Please see SPECIAL FEATURES above for further information on Hurricane Kristy. Aside from Kristy, high pressure dominates the forecast waters N of 20N and W of 115W. The pressure gradient between this area of high pressure and lower pressure within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to locally fresh trade winds N of the monsoon trough to 20N and W of 110W, with mainly moderate seas. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 4-6 ft, prevail N of 20N. Gentle to moderate winds, and moderate seas, are found S of the monsoon trough. For the forecast, a cold front will reach the NW corner of the forecast region tonight into Wed. A new swell event is forecast to follow the front. Hurricane Kristy is near 14.7N 108.5W at 2 PM PDT, and is moving west at 16 kt. Maximum sustained winds are 65 kt with gusts to 75 kt, and the minimum central pressure is 988 mb. Kristy will move to 14.6N 111.0W Wed morning, 14.4N 114.5W Wed afternoon, 14.2N 118.0W Thu morning, 14.2N 121.0W Thu afternoon, 14.7N 123.8W Fri morning, and 15.7N 126.5W Fri afternoon. Kristy will change little in intensity as it moves to 18.7N 130.7W Sat afternoon.