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Tropical Center

Tropical Weather Discussion

Status

Issued Active alert

Start Time

Sun 07/14/2024 06:05 AM EDT

End Time

Sun 07/14/2024 12:05 PM EDT

Impacts

Informational

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1005 UTC Sun Jul 14 2024 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 0600 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 0800 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 83W extending from the Caribbean seas across Costa Rica and into the far eastern waters, moving W at 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 100W from 16N southward, moving west at 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. The axis of a tropical wave is near 112W from 20N southward, moving west at 10 kt. Nearby convection is discussed in the ITCZ/monsoon trough section below. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 10N85W to 12N115W to 11N137W. The ITCZ continues from that point to 10N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 09N to 12N and E of 87W, and from 06N to 17N and W of 99W. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong to near gale northerly winds, and seas of 7-9 ft, are over the Gulf of Tehuantepec. Fresh to strong winds, and seas peaking to 7 ft, are over the Gulf of California. Moderate to fresh winds are over the forecast waters S of SW Mexico, where seas are in the 5-7 ft range. Elsewhere, a weak pressure gradient is resulting in light to gentle winds, and seas of 3-5 ft. For the forecast, strong to near-gale northerly winds will prevail in the Gulf of Tehuantepec through early next week before diminishing. Seas will peak to 10 ft today and Mon. Fresh to strong winds in the Gulf of California will diminish Sun. Moderate to fresh SE winds will move across the SW Mexican offshore waters through today. Elsewhere, light to gentle winds are forecast through Tue. Moderate winds will develop west of the Baja California peninsula the middle of next week. ...OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Fresh to strong NE winds are over and downwind of the Gulf of Papagayo with seas of 5 to 7 ft. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds, and seas of 5-6 ft, are between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador. Light to gentle winds elsewhere S of the monsoon trough. Aside from seas over the Gulf of Papagayo, and between the Galapagos Islands and Ecuador, seas are in the 3-4 ft range. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds will prevail over the Papagayo region through early week before diminishing slightly through the remainder forecast period. Gentle to moderate southerly winds and moderate seas will continue between the coast of Ecuador and the Galapagos Islands through the middle of the week. Fairly tranquil conditions are forecast elsewhere. ...REMAINDER OF THE AREA... Surface ridging prevails across the waters N of 20N. The pressure gradient between the ridge and lower pressure in the vicinity of the ITCZ and within the monsoon trough is supporting moderate to fresh winds N of the ITCZ/monsoon trough and W of 115W. Light to gentle winds are elsewhere N of the monsoon trough. Gentle to moderate winds are between 04N-10N. Moderate to fresh SE winds are noted S of 04N. Seas are in the 7-8 ft range in N swell N of 27N between 130W and 137W. Another area of seas to 8 ft in SW swell is noted along 12N and W of 135W. SW swell is bringing seas to 8 ft S of 01S and W of 110W. Seas of 4-7 ft prevail elsewhere. For the forecast, moderate to fresh winds will continue N of 10N between 115W and 140W. Large northerly swell over the far northern waters will subside today. Southerly swell to 8 ft will continue to reach north of equator to 10N and between 115W and 120W through early this week. Winds may freshen south of the ITCZ and west of 110W by early week.