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Tropical Weather Discussion

Status

Issued Active alert

Start Time

Thu 07/18/2019 11:10 AM EDT

End Time

Thu 08/01/2019 11:10 AM EDT

Impacts

Informational

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1510 UTC Thu Jul 18 2019 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1200 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1500 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... A tropical wave with axis near 92W is moving west around 15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 10N to 13N within 180 nm of the wave axis. A well-defined tropical wave with axis near 104W is moving west around 10-15 kt. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 08N to 15N within 240 nm east of the wave axis. Environmental conditions are forecast to become more conducive for gradual development as the wave moves westward to west-northwestward, and a tropical depression could form early next week. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook ABPZ20/KNHC TWOEP for more information. A well-defined tropical wave with axis near 127W is moving west around 15 kt. A 1007 mb low is analyzed along the wave axis near 12N127W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 06N to 14N within 180 nm of the wave axis. Upper-level winds appear to be conducive for further development, and a tropical depression could form during the next two or three days while the disturbance moves west-northwestward or northwestward. Please see the latest eastern North Pacific Tropical Weather Outlook ABPZ20/KNHC TWOEP for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from Panama near 09N78W to 10N92W to 09N102W. The ITCZ extends from 08N106W to 07N110W to 12N125W, then resumes from 11N130W to beyond 08N140W. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted north of 04N and east of 85W. Scattered moderate convection is occurring within 90 nm north of the monsoon trough between 84W and 90W, from 14N to 19N between 116W and 123W, and within 180 nm south of the ITCZ west of 135W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Overnight scatterometer data across the Baja California offshore waters showed light to gentle breezes over the region. Meanwhile, fresh to strong winds were depicted over the southern waters a couple hundred miles south of Acapulco in association with a tropical wave near 104W. Elsewhere, the pressure gradient between high pressure over the Gulf of Mexico and the monsoon trough is supporting fresh to strong N gap winds across the Gulf of Tehuantepec, with seas likely reaching 8 ft. Fresh to strong winds will continue pulsing across the Gulf of Tehuantepec through Sat morning, then diminish into early next week as high pressure weakens over the Gulf of Mexico. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... The pressure gradient across Central America is maintaining fresh to strong NE to E winds near and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo. These winds will persist through the weekend and into early next week, with associated seas peaking around 8 ft each morning. The monsoon trough crosses the offshore waters around 09N, and the latest satellite imagery and lightning data reveal widely scattered showers and thunderstorms south of the trough. Winds in this region should remain gentle to moderate for the next several days. Seas to 8 ft in southerly swell will persist south of the Galapagos Islands through the weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A ridge extends from distant high pressure well NW of the region across the northern waters toward the Revillagigedo Islands. Scatterometer data from 06-07 UTC showed fresh to locally strong NE winds south of the ridge over the waters from 13N to 26N west of 130W. Corresponding altimeter data indicated seas were running 7-9 ft in this region. These trade winds will diminish to moderate speeds Fri into Sat as the high weakens and the gradient relaxes over the region. Elsewhere, combined seas will remain around 8 ft in southerly swell over the far southern waters for the next couple days. Please see the Tropical Waves section above for more information about the potential for tropical cyclone development over the next several days.