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Tropical Weather Discussion


Issued Active alert

Start Time

Sat 03/28/2020 05:20 PM EDT

End Time

Sat 04/11/2020 05:20 PM EDT



Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2120 UTC Sat Mar 28 2020 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from 08N84W to 06N90W. The ITCZ continues from 06N90W to beyond 05N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 07N between 90W and 95W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Recent ship observations and scatterometer satellite data indicate fresh winds off Baja California Sur, with fresh to strong NW winds over the southern portion of the Gulf of California and between Los Cabos and Mazatlan. These winds are within a tight pressure gradient between high pressure west of the area and low pressure over central Mexico. Concurrent altimeter satellite data indicated 8 to 10 ft seas in the open waters off Baja California through the Revillagigedo Islands. Generally light to gentle winds and slight seas are noted farther south. This pattern will maintain moderate to fresh NW winds west of Baja California through Sun, except fresh to strong over the southern Gulf of California into late Sun. The high pressure will build into Mon, supporting fresh to strong NW winds and building seas off Baja California Norte and the northern Gulf of California early in the week. The high weakens through mid week allowing winds to diminish. Gentle W to NW winds will dominate the waters between Cabo Corrientes and Tehuantepec through the period, except for a brief pulse of fresh gap winds late Sun into Mon. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... High pressure north of the western Caribbean will maintain pulses of fresh to strong gap winds in the Gulf of Papagayo region and off Nicaragua tonight and Sun night, and fresh to strong northerly winds across the Gulf of Panama tonight. Light to gentle winds are expected elsewhere across the offshore waters through mid week. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A broad ridge extends west to east over the waters north of 20N. This is supporting fresh to strong trade winds over much of the area between 10N and 20N west of 120W, as noted in various recent scatterometer satellite passes. Concurrent altimeter passes show seas of 8 to 12 ft in this area, largely due to the trade wind flow but also due to a mix of primarily northerly swell. Farther east, lighter winds and slight seas are evident in the deep tropics east of 120W. A sharp upper trough reaches from southern Mexico to roughly the equator at 115W. Divergent flow aloft east of this feature is supporting a few showers and thunderstorms along the ITCZ between 95W and 100W. Little change is expected in this pattern through early next week. The ridge will weaken into mid week, allowing winds and seas to diminish west of 120W.