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Tropical Weather Discussion


Issued Active alert

Start Time

Mon 02/06/2023 05:05 PM EST

End Time

Mon 02/06/2023 11:05 PM EST



Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 2205 UTC Mon Feb 6 2023 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from 03.4S to 30N, east of 120W including the Gulf of California, and from the Equator to 30N, between 120W and 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 1930 UTC. ...SPECIAL FEATURES... Pacific Significant Seas: High pressure centered N of the region is building S today over waters N of about 20N. The tight pressure gradient between this high and the lower pressure associated with the ITCZ is leading to fresh to strong N to NE winds over area waters. These winds combined with NW swell with period 8 to 10 seconds spilling into the region are inducing seas of 8 to 13 ft for areas N of 18N. These high seas will prevail into Wed, before gradually diminishing as the high pressure weakens. Please read the latest High Seas Forecast at for more information. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... A surface trough extends from near 08N75W to 02N90W. The ITCZ extends from 02N90W to 03N116W to beyond 04N140W. Scattered moderate convection is noted from 05N to 10N W of 136W. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Strong N wind prevails across the Gulf of Tehuantepec region S to 15N. Seas of 8-10 ft prevail across this area. Similar conditions will prevail through tonight. Strong N winds prevail across waters W of Baja California and in the central Gulf of California. Seas continue to increase offshore Baja California Norte, with heights nearing 13 ft. See the Special Features section above for more details on these high seas. Elsewhere S of Baja California, mainly gentle to moderate NW winds prevail with seas of 5 to 7 ft in mainly NW swell. For the forecast, strong gap winds in the Gulf of Tehuantepec region will diminish tonight, but increase again late this week. Gales are likely to return by Fri night. Elsewhere, strong high pressure building into the Baja California offshore waters will dominate through Tue morning, bringing strong N winds and large seas. Strong N winds in the northern Gulf of California this morning will spread S through through tonight, then persist in the Gulf through Thu night. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Strong NE winds are offshore Nicaragua and in the Gulf of Papagayo region, extending offshore to 89W. In this area, seas of 7-9 ft prevail. N-NE winds are fresh in the Gulf of Panama, producing seas of 5-7 ft. Light to gentle variable winds are elsewhere, along with 4-6 ft seas primarily in SW swell. For the forecast, fresh to strong NE to E winds across the Gulf of Papagayo region will prevail tonight Thu night, reaching near gale- force during the overnights, and produce seas to 9 ft. Fresh N-NE winds will pulse to locally strong tonight across the Gulf of Panama, then weaken modestly through Thu. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A 1037 mb high pressure north of the area is near 35N135W is tightening the pressure gradient between it and lower pressure along the ITCZ. Fresh to strong NE to E winds and seas of 8-13 ft have expanded southward to 05N. Moderate to fresh NE to E winds prevail elsewhere, with seas of 6-8 ft in mixed NE and NW swell. Strong high pressure will dominate the waters west of 120W through Tue, then gradually weaken through Thu. Fresh to strong tradewinds and large seas will prevail across most of the area W of 115W through Tue before winds and seas gradually diminish from E to W Wed through Thu. See the Special Features section above for details. A new cold front is expected to enter the NW waters Thu.