Tropical Weather Discussion
Tropical Weather Discussion NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 1918 UTC Mon Jul 16 2018 Tropical Weather Discussion for the eastern Pacific Ocean from the Equator to 32N, east of 140W. The following information is based on satellite imagery, weather observations, radar, and meteorological analysis. Based on 1800 UTC surface analysis and satellite imagery through 2100 UTC. ...TROPICAL WAVES... The axis of a tropical wave is near 84W N of 03N, and is estimated to be progressing W at 12 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the wave axis. The axis of a tropical wave is near 94W N of 05N, and is estimated to be progressing W at 15 kt. Isolated moderate to strong convection is noted within 180 nm of the wave axis from 06N to 12N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 103W from 05N to 16N, and is estimated to be progressing W at 15 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed within 180 nm either side of the wave axis from 07N to 11N. The axis of a tropical wave is near 116W from 05N to 15N with low pres along the wave axis near 12.5N116W. This system is moving W at 18 kt. Scattered moderate and isolated strong convection is observed within 270 nm either side of the wave axis from 12N to 15N. ...INTERTROPICAL CONVERGENCE ZONE/MONSOON TROUGH... The monsoon trough extends from 09N79W to 07.5N109W. The ITCZ extends from 12N117W to 08N130W to 10N139W. Aside from convection associated to the tropical waves and lows, scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted from 06N to 10N E of 90W. Scattered moderate isolated strong convection was noted within 120 nm of the ITCZ. ...DISCUSSION... OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF MEXICO... Gulf of Tehuantepec: Nocturnal pulses of strong northerly drainage flow, accompanied by 6 to 9 ft seas, can be expected through Wed night. A surface ridge will meander across the area from near 23N116W to near 15N104W this week. A moderate NW breeze will develop within 90 nm of the Baja Peninsula during the evenings, otherwise gentle anticyclonic northerly winds are expected around the ridge axis accompanied by 3 to 5 ft seas. OFFSHORE WATERS WITHIN 250 NM OF CENTRAL AMERICA, COLOMBIA, AND WITHIN 750 NM OF ECUADOR... Gulf of Papagayo: Strong nocturnal gap wind pulses are expected across and downstream of the Gulf of Papagayo through the upcoming weekend. Gentle to occasionally moderate E winds are forecast elsewhere N of the monsoon trough which is meandering between 07N and 10N. Moderate southerly winds are forecast S of the monsoon trough for the next several days accompanied by 4 to 6 ft seas. Long period southerly swell, with seas in the 7 to 8 ft range, will reach along 03.4S to the E of 93W late Wed night, and propagate N reaching the far offshore waters between 10N and 13N W of 93W during next weekend. REMAINDER OF THE AREA... A surface ridge will meander across the discussion area from 32N140W to 23N116W this week, with moderate to locally fresh anticylonic flow forecast elsewhere around the ridge accompanied by 4 to 7 ft seas. Long period cross-equatorial swell, with seas in the 7-9 ft range, will move across the equator between 90W and 125W late Wed, and continue to propagate N across the discussion area S of 10N between 92W and 135W during the upcoming weekend. Long period northerly swell, with seas in the 7-9 ft range, will reach along 32N between 125W and 132W on Thu night, and cover the waters from 30N to 32N between 130W and 140W during the upcoming weekend.