Tropical Weather Outlook

Full Alert Message

Tropical Weather Outlook NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL 500 AM PDT Sun Jul 12 2026 For the eastern and central North Pacific east of 180 longitude: Offshore of Southwestern Mexico: A broad area of low pressure located several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico is producing a large area of disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system, and a tropical depression is expected to form during the early to middle part of this week while the system moves generally west-northwestward well off the coast of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...medium...40 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...high...90 percent. Central and Western East Pacific: An area of low pressure located well west-southwest of the Baja California Peninsula continues to produce disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Some gradual development is possible over the next day or two before the system moves west-northwestward into a less favorable environment. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...20 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Well South of the Hawaiian Islands: A trough of low pressure located several hundred miles south-southeast of the Hawaiian Islands is producing disorganized showers and thunderstorms. Gradual development of this system is possible during the next several days as it moves slowly westward across the central Pacific, remaining well south of the Hawaiian Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent. Well South-Southwest of the Hawaiian Islands (Ex-CP90): Shower and thunderstorm activity has increased with a trough of low pressure located several hundred miles to the south-southwest of the Hawaiian Islands. Environmental conditions appear favorable for gradual development of this system during the next several days as it moves slowly westward to west-northwestward, remaining southwest of the Hawaiian Islands. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...10 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...20 percent. Offshore of Southern and Southwestern Mexico: An area of low pressure is expected to form by the middle of this week several hundred miles south of the coast of southern Mexico. Environmental conditions appear conducive for gradual development of this system later this week while it moves generally west-northwestward well offshore of Mexico. * Formation chance through 48 hours...low...near 0 percent. * Formation chance through 7 days...low...30 percent.